Latest / Gunther Fehlinger Podcast / Joni Askola on Trump, Iran, and Ukraine: Why Europe Must Focus on Europe

Transcript

Joni Askola on Trump, Iran, and Ukraine: Why Europe Must Focus on Europe · Gunther Fehlinger Podcast

0:39
Hi, Yoni. Hi Yunter, can you can you hear
0:42
and see me now? Yes, perfect.
0:44
I hear you very well and very beautiful, and I'm happy to see
0:48
a finished hero here on my podcast.
0:50
I'm I'm happy to be on the podcast.
0:52
Thanks for having me and sorry for the technical issues with
0:54
Riverside, but great that it works now.
0:57
Perfect, you're fine. We can start the recording.
1:00
We can start recording. Very good.
1:04
Perfect. This meeting is being recorded.
1:07
I'm very happy to have a Finnish representative at my podcast
1:11
where we discuss all the important issues of our time.
1:14
And this my friend, actually from Twitter, I have to say
1:17
because I admire your work, what you do, your clear stand for
1:20
freedom, your support for Ukraine, and also that Finland
1:24
has joined NATO and that you criticize, of course, President
1:28
Trump for not helping Ukraine much more.
1:31
I would like to invite you to present yourself, your
1:34
activities, what you do, also your account and your motivation
1:38
for why you're doing all this. And please, with Siso, we like
1:43
to finish people and you are my hero, Yoni, the floor is yours.
1:47
Thank you Gunther, thanks for having me and same words.
1:49
I've also been following what you post on Twitter and lots of
1:52
great work there and lots of funny posts as well in a great
1:56
way. So it's, it's always
1:57
entertaining and great to follow what you do.
1:59
It's great sometimes, I mean lots of serious posts, but also
2:03
many, many funny ones. So it's, it's great, great.
2:06
Work must be entertained in these terrible times and also
2:10
it's creating some attention and that's also necessary because
2:14
you're lonely on Twitter. Exactly, exactly.
2:17
So yeah, I'll briefly present myself.
2:19
I'm Yoni Osco. I'm from Finland.
2:21
I'm a PhD student or actually a PhD candidate in public and
2:25
social policy at Charles University in Prague.
2:28
I do research on public policy and then on the side I I try to
2:34
help Ukraine and to also push my agenda my my ideology, which is
2:40
democracy and freedom online on X blue sky and and YouTube.
2:45
I started helping Ukraine in 2023 with an organization called
2:51
the 69 sniffing brigade, which is an AFO organization.
2:55
We bring trucks and drones to Ukraine and we I started helping
3:00
them in 2023. My brother was already helping
3:03
them before and I needed a way to collect money to fundraise to
3:07
get trucks to Ukraine. And that's how I started posting
3:10
my analysis on Twitter and on YouTube and Blue Sky, because by
3:14
having followers there, I could raise money for Ukraine.
3:17
And that's how it all started. So it all started as a way to
3:19
help Ukraine and since then it's gotten further.
3:22
And obviously now it's not only helping Ukraine, it's also
3:25
trying to, to influence and trying to comment and give
3:29
analysis. So it's, it's also both.
3:31
But I still help Ukraine and still with the same organization
3:34
and I try to go there a couple times a year and do a couple
3:37
fundraisers every year or so. So that's what I do.
3:40
Thanks, Joni for doing all this important work.
3:42
It's really excellent. We agreed to talk a little bit
3:46
about your tweet that you don't like the Austrian neutrality.
3:49
Maybe you can share some views about Austrian immorality and
3:53
that's would be a good starter for the whole debate this
3:57
morning. Yes, and obviously I'm not an
3:59
Austrian politics specialist in any way, but I understand
4:02
something about neutrality as a fin because Finland used to be a
4:05
neutral country and I don't believe in the concept of
4:08
neutrality at all. I think that neutrality, these
4:10
cowardice and it's, it's something that doesn't exist in
4:13
reality. I think that someone who is a
4:14
member of NATO is not neutral already.
4:16
Because if you are in NATO, sorry, not NATO, I mean EU, if
4:20
you're a member of EU, you're not a neutral country.
4:22
And because of that, I don't think that Finland has been
4:24
neutral for a long time. I think when we joined the EU in
4:28
1995, we became a non neutral country.
4:31
And since then we have slowly moved our way.
4:34
And then we decided to join NATO and Russia launched its full
4:37
scale invasion of Ukraine. In Finland's case, obviously
4:41
there's always a reason, a historic reason when you are
4:43
neutral. And same applies to Austria,
4:45
it's a different reason, but there's always a reason.
4:47
In Finland's case, it's because he was forced on us after World
4:50
War 2 because we fought against the USSR and he was part of the
4:55
deal to end the war for us to be neutral.
4:58
He was forced on us and then when the Soviet Union collapsed,
5:02
we had an opportunity to fully move and join NATO.
5:04
We did not take that opportunity and we ended up taking it much
5:08
later. But I think that it's really
5:10
important in these times where you have authoritarian regimes
5:15
trying to gain power and to take US hegemony money down and also
5:20
to to just influence the West. It's really important to take a
5:22
clear stance. And I think that in the case of
5:25
Austria and Switzerland, many others that are still neutral,
5:28
they are not taking this stance. I think that's Austria, which is
5:31
sanctioning. Russia is not a neutral country,
5:34
but they are having a coward policy by not giving weapons to
5:39
Ukraine. Austria has a weapons industry,
5:41
Austria could do a lot. Austria produces very high
5:44
quality weapons, Austria could gain from it as well and sell
5:48
more weapons to the world and so on.
5:49
There are many opportunities for Austria, but it would also be
5:51
the right thing to do. And it's not only Austria, it's
5:54
also Switzerland and many other countries.
5:56
I also think that South Korea and Japan are wrong not to send
6:00
weapons. It's great that they send
6:01
financial aid, but they need to also send weapons to Ukraine.
6:04
So Austria is not alone in this case.
6:07
And I'm sure that over time, also with your help lobbying in
6:11
Austria, I think that over time, these countries will choose the
6:14
right side because there is no in between, as you know.
6:18
And as many say, and it's a very common statement when there's an
6:22
aggression where there's an imperialist country invading a
6:25
smaller country, if you're neutral, you're siding with the
6:27
aggressor. And that's unfortunately what
6:29
neutral countries are doing. And because of that, I try to
6:31
call them out from time to time because it's important to remind
6:36
neutral countries that they are not neutral.
6:37
They are in fact siding with the aggressor when being neutral.
6:41
Because Ukraine needs urgent weapons and Austria and
6:44
Switzerland could deliver them. But we are not.
6:47
We are not. And Finland, actually, it's a
6:49
country which is much smaller than Austria.
6:51
You have about, I think 5 million people.
6:53
We have 9 million. You're also very rich country.
6:56
We are also very rich country, but we are not giving any
6:59
weapons in four years of this long terrible war, Nothing.
7:04
Finland, I think you have given billions of weapons in several
7:07
packages. You know, can you describe a
7:10
little what what you did as a country for this great nation of
7:14
Ukraine, it's heroic struggle, while Austria, a complete
7:18
immoral bystander, has basically done.
7:21
Nothing. Yeah.
7:22
So in the case of Finland, it's a bit specific because we don't
7:25
count all of our age, Ukraine in the official count and we don't
7:28
announce what we give. So the way we count, the way we
7:32
do our accounting is everything that we have to replace, we
7:36
count in the accounting and things we don't have to replace,
7:38
we don't. So let's as an example, let's
7:41
say we give 10 tanks from our current tanks and 10 tanks from
7:45
our reserve. It only counts as 10 tanks.
7:49
Even if we give 20, because everything that's from our old
7:51
storage and reserve we don't count.
7:53
So no one really knows how much exactly Finland has given, but
7:56
we know that we have given, I think if I remember well, 32
7:59
packages of eight. And in that pack, those packages
8:04
there have been engineering tanks and there have been air
8:07
defence systems and there has been machine guns and all sorts
8:11
of different aid. We also have finished start-ups
8:14
that are operating in in Ukraine and that are trying to develop
8:17
their products, including kamikaze drones that use mines
8:21
as payloads and things like these.
8:25
Also, Finland has probably given some BM PS and so IF PS from the
8:29
Soviet times. And we have given some Patria
8:32
armored vehicles that we've seen being used in Ukraine, but no
8:37
one knows exactly how much has been given.
8:39
Or we know the minimum number, we know the number of new
8:42
products that has been given, but we don't know how much old
8:45
equipment has been sent. And in some way, it's good
8:48
because then Russia knows a bit less.
8:49
But at the same time, it's a bit sad that we do this, because
8:52
then you have countries that actually give less than us, but
8:55
that look like they have given more because they count every
8:57
single penny that they give. But it is what it is.
9:01
Finland is not the only country that has done a lot.
9:03
Obviously Denmark, Norway, many small countries, Sweden as well,
9:08
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, there are many countries that
9:11
have done tons for Ukraine. And I'd like to take this
9:13
opportunity also to thank Poland for what they've done, because
9:17
they're forgotten sometimes. Poland has had a weird policy in
9:20
the last couple years, and it hasn't always been perfect.
9:23
But at the beginning of the war, Poland played the biggest role,
9:26
maybe in Europe. They gave really, really a lot
9:28
during the first few months of the war.
9:31
And it needs to be reminded because Poland saved Ukraine in
9:33
many ways. They sent lots, lots of tanks,
9:36
air defence, artillery, lots of equipment, including planes as
9:40
well. So many countries have done a
9:42
lot and it's not too late. I think Austria and Switzerland,
9:47
obviously it's not something that can change in a second, but
9:49
it's not too late and the war might last for a long time.
9:51
So there are opportunities and I know that you have companies
9:54
that produce great weapons as well.
9:56
So there are opportunities for more to be done for sure.
10:01
I looked in the, because I used this argument also in the
10:03
Austrian debate here and the public and I looked at the
10:07
figures of the Swedish and Finnish Ministry of Defense, and
10:11
roughly it was for the first four years, it was 7 billion for
10:16
Sweden and €3.5 billion of weapon self.
10:20
But I'm just talking about bilateral weapon self from the
10:23
side of Finland. Austria did zero.
10:26
Yeah, is the difference. And also in Austria, you know
10:30
that it's forbidden basically to collect money for drones or for
10:33
any kind of port of Ukraine. And I guess in Finland it's not
10:37
forbidden. You are now in NATO and you
10:39
collect money as well to privately for defence efforts.
10:43
We we do collect privately. Unfortunately Finland has quite
10:48
tight fundraising rules. So in Finland you need specific
10:51
permissions for every time you've collect for more than
10:53
€10,000 and so on. So Finland does collect for
10:56
Ukraine and we send trucks and generators and all sorts of
11:00
things. We have quite a complicated
11:02
bureaucracy and donations. And the organization I work with
11:05
is in Estonia, which has a bit less bureaucracy on that.
11:09
But but we are less limited now. And as a NATO country, we are
11:13
more open to to doing all sorts of things.
11:16
But Finland is known to do these things a bit secretly.
11:19
We're not a country that tries to rub it in Russia's face or to
11:23
tell them exactly what we do. We prefer to do it behind the
11:25
scenes. So.
11:26
So we don't know everything that's being done, but some
11:30
things are being done. But yeah, it is what it.
11:32
Is the finished tradition of working more than talking?
11:37
And you are like a bit of a example different thing because
11:40
you are very outspoken and I want to thank you for that.
11:44
But because for the debate that's very good.
11:46
And I have in the Austrian debate also the issue that when
11:49
I say we should join NATO, then everybody says, you know, for
11:53
Finland it's very clear because they have a border with Russia.
11:57
But Austria is in the centre of Europe and we have all these
12:00
other NATO countries in the east and they protect us anyhow.
12:03
So why should we make this effort to join NATO, spend more
12:06
money, when anyhow the Slovaks, Hungarians, Finnish or
12:10
Ukrainians are defending us? How good do you think is this
12:14
argument? Obviously it's not a good
12:16
argument because if you're expecting others to help you or
12:18
to protect you and you're not wanting to protect them, it's
12:21
it's just an unfair argument. And obviously it's not long term
12:26
something that can work and that things change over time.
12:29
We don't know who will side with who in 10 years or in 20 years
12:33
and so on. With China growing and with the
12:36
all the instability that we see around the world, we don't know
12:39
if some bad actor takes over Germany at some point or
12:41
something like this. And no matter what happens, it's
12:45
good to be protected and to be on the right side of history.
12:47
And because of that, it's just better to side with, to have an
12:50
alliance to count on, but that can also count on you.
12:53
But also one thing I think that those Austria could work on, and
12:56
I'm not a specialist on Austria. Again, I've been to Austria many
12:59
times and I love the food there and I love many things about
13:02
Austria, but I'm not especially. You have a new friend in
13:05
Austria? Me.
13:05
Next. Time you come to Vienna, please
13:07
visit me. I would love to and but I think
13:11
one thing Austria can also work on on top of the neutrality is
13:14
the spying laws or the laws that are related to intelligence.
13:18
And obviously I'm not a specialist again, but.
13:21
I think you know very much you and you know a lot about our
13:24
problems, because it's true. Spying in Austria is legal.
13:28
As long as you don't spy against Austria, you can harm the
13:31
Finnish interest in Austria and nobody will do anything against
13:34
you. This is the law in Austria.
13:36
And because of that, it creates an incentive for countries like
13:40
Russia and China and even the US or anyone that is not European
13:44
to operate from Austria. And we have seen with Krystal
13:48
Grozev in his files about Russian operations that in many
13:52
cases those happen through Austria.
13:54
There's some flight coming to Vienna or leaving from Vienna
13:57
when there is a Russian operation because of that.
13:59
And obviously, those are things that could be worked on to
14:03
improve the situation for the rest of Europe, but for Korea as
14:06
well. But yeah, many steps that can be
14:09
taken to to improve the situation.
14:11
I think that it what's happening in Iran and what's happening in
14:16
Ukraine and so on, over time will help some, at least some
14:20
part of the Austrian population wake up to these issues.
14:24
And I think that the chance of Austria one day joining NATO is
14:27
much higher today than before the full scale invasion of
14:30
Ukraine. And I'm still hopeful that some
14:33
of these issues will be taken care of over time.
14:37
Finland, Austria and Sweden, we joined together in 95 the
14:41
European Union as neutral countries, and I know that there
14:44
was Minister and Carl Bildt and our Prime Minister at that time
14:49
of conscious opposition leader, later Prime Minister.
14:52
They were thinking at the first opportunity and when it's
14:55
possible to join NATO as well. That was a promise they made to
14:59
each other. I was at the meeting itself,
15:00
because that was the idea of the conservative parties and why in
15:04
Finland it was possible and in Austria not.
15:07
What's your reading? What's the difference between
15:09
our two countries? Why the Finnish have basically
15:12
driven this change the population, Why the Austrians
15:16
think let the others defenders, we don't care.
15:19
I think in that case the border actually plays a big role
15:22
because obviously we are directly threatened by 1300
15:27
kilometers of border with Russia.
15:29
We have, as you have also, we have a conscription, but we have
15:32
a conscription where when you are serving, you know that
15:35
there's actually a risk that you might actually end up at the
15:38
border. My brother isn't doing his
15:39
transcription right now in Finland.
15:42
And I think that we, we had one difference between US and
15:47
Austria in general is that we were forced in this neutrality
15:50
back in the days. Austria maybe chose it a bit
15:53
more, not in the sense that you chose it, but what I mean is you
15:56
had it kind of like as a, it's part of the political identity,
15:59
maybe a bit more than for us. For us, it was something that
16:03
was forced on us by the Soviet Union, which are is our enemy.
16:06
While maybe Austrians don't see Germany or the Soviet Union as
16:11
enemies in the same way as we see Russia as an enemy because
16:14
of the border. And because of that, I think
16:16
once the full scale invasion started, it kind of liberated
16:20
our opinions before what happened.
16:22
The promise that Nini studied when you were there is something
16:25
that he could not have said out loud on TV in Finland in 1995.
16:29
But when the full scale invasion happened, it kind of liberated
16:32
us to be able to oppose Russia more openly and to be able to
16:36
give our opinions in ways that were not possible in 2021 or
16:40
even less in 2013 or 1995. But I think in Austria the
16:44
change has been a bit smaller because you don't have Russia as
16:47
a border and you don't have a clear enemy.
16:49
Obviously we know you have a clear enemy.
16:51
Russia is a clear enemy. But for the Austrian population,
16:54
maybe Russia is not perceived as much as an enemy as we perceive
16:58
it as an enemy. And I think that plays into why
17:01
it hasn't happened. And obviously over time, your
17:05
politicians, whether it's courts or other politicians in, in in
17:09
Austria have had views that they have pushed about Russia and
17:13
about neutrality that have spread, just like Orban's views
17:17
spread in Hungary. These views have spread in
17:20
Austria. And it's not something that can
17:21
be taken out from the people's minds in one second.
17:24
It's a slow process. We had a lucky situation because
17:28
we had a young Prime Minister who was very open to the idea of
17:31
NATO with Santa Marine when that happened.
17:33
But if you look at the parties in power in Austria, most and
17:38
most of their voters are maybe a little bit less open to the idea
17:41
of NATO and Austria. I mean, obviously because of
17:44
your geographic location, you have been in a quite lucky
17:47
situation. You don't have any big enemy on
17:49
your borders. So so the status quo maybe feels
17:52
a bit more appealing to the Austrian population than just.
17:55
Only we had the opinion poll because we are together in the
17:58
European Union. We had the opinion poll when
18:01
somebody attacks Eastland or Estonia or Finland.
18:05
Yeah. Should the Austrians help?
18:07
And then it was only 25% of the people were in favour of
18:11
helping. You finish on Estonians?
18:13
Yeah, but when the question was asked, would you like help from
18:17
the European Union in case we are attacked, then it was about
18:21
70 or 80% of the Austrians were absolutely in favour of getting
18:26
help but not giving help. What do you think about such
18:29
attitudes in the Northern Europe?
18:32
Obviously it's it's not a great attitude to have.
18:35
I think that's once your population experiences
18:39
something, a real threat or something, I think that this
18:43
attitude can change quite fast. I think that even in Ukraine,
18:46
before 2022, there was a lot of problematic opinions and a lot
18:49
of problematic attitudes. But now there's less because
18:52
they have unfortunately had to experience this war and it has
18:55
woken them up on Russia. And I think if something big
18:59
happens in Austria, Russia does some operation or something,
19:03
this could wake them up. We had a case in Finland
19:06
actually today. We don't know yet, but there's a
19:09
Finnish organization called Your Finnish Friends, which is an
19:12
organization that helps Ukraine and they have a official address
19:16
in Helsinki. And the building was burned down
19:17
last night by a 17 year old. And it was a whole building that
19:22
was kind of burned down. We don't know yet why the 17
19:26
year old did it, but it looks at least the first idea I get is
19:29
that Russia has paid someone to do it, because that's what they
19:32
do around the world. And it's not random that this
19:35
building where this organization is, is the one that's burning.
19:38
And I think obviously one thing like this is not enough to
19:40
change the people's perception. But I think if enough threats or
19:44
enough issues happen in Austria, maybe these could wake people
19:49
up. Or if you need help for
19:50
something and you get help, then maybe people will change their
19:52
attitudes. But the good news is that as we
19:55
saw in Finland with NATO, these opinions can change quite fast.
19:59
NATO had like 50% of people opposing it and 30% supporting
20:04
it and 20% that didn't know when, just before the full scale
20:07
invasion. And then when the full scale
20:09
invasion started, suddenly we had almost 80% supporting
20:12
joining NATO. So these things can change fast
20:15
and I think in Austria they can change fast too.
20:17
But you need something to happen for people to change this
20:20
attitude, which is problematic. Now we have 4 years of war and
20:24
Ukraine and we have now one week of war in Iran.
20:28
And what's your opinion about all the both wars?
20:32
Let's talk first about Ukraine. And I see that you are really
20:36
very strong supporter of Ukraine with all your efforts.
20:39
But do you think there's opportunity now for liberation
20:42
of Crimea? And will the European Union
20:46
support Ukraine stronger after the Americans have done so
20:49
little? It would be time for us to do
20:51
more, I guess. I think that obviously I would
20:55
want all territories liberated in Ukraine, and Ukraine deserves
20:59
all territories liberated. But I think that it's also
21:01
important for us to remember that even if Ukraine does not
21:06
manage to get 100% back, Ukraine can still win the war.
21:09
Even with 80% of Ukraine, Ukraine can still win the war
21:12
because the objective Russia has is to turn Ukraine into a
21:16
satellite state that is demilitarized and under Russian
21:19
control. And as long as Russia fails to
21:21
get that, and as long as Ukraine stays sovereign and militarized,
21:25
Ukraine is winning the war. Obviously there are levels to
21:28
winning a complete victory. A perfect victory includes
21:31
taking Crimea back. A less complete victory would
21:34
for example be the status quo now with Ukraine state keeping
21:38
the current territories but staying sovereign and
21:40
militarized. There is no perfect scenario
21:43
here, and I would really want Ukraine to take everything back.
21:47
And I think that Ukraine has possibilities in the long run to
21:50
take territory back because Russia's economy will get more
21:52
and more exhausted over time. And Ukraine is getting better
21:55
and better with drones and with assault troops and so on.
21:59
So if Ukraine manages to finish its core reform and to to
22:02
improve its mobilization and recruitment, it's not impossible
22:06
for Ukraine to take some land back.
22:08
I don't know how much they can take back, but they can take
22:10
some land back from Russia. I think Ukraine is currently
22:14
winning the war. I think it's a very tough war
22:16
for Ukraine. It's very complicated.
22:18
There are massive issues with manpower and recruitment.
22:20
There are many issues that have to be dealt with.
22:23
I think the current new Minister of Defence, Fedorov is really
22:26
good. He's making a good work.
22:28
He's he's just arrived and he's already making big improvements.
22:32
I think the key for Ukraine to win this war won't be the
22:35
territory. It will be the strikes on
22:36
Russia's economy and hurting Russia enough.
22:40
And there is no secret the best way for that is to produce
22:42
enough drones and missiles to destroy Russia's refineries and
22:47
Russia's factories, especially defense factories.
22:50
And that's something that Ukraine is working hard to do.
22:52
Fire Point in Ukraine is working hard on that.
22:55
And I think there is the opportunity for Europe to do
22:57
something to we already help fund some of them, But if we
23:01
would give more money to buy more missiles and more drones,
23:05
then Ukraine could hit even more.
23:06
And that is the best way to accelerate the end of the war.
23:09
But unfortunately, it's a process that takes time.
23:11
Even if there are 10 successful hits, it's not going to change
23:14
anything. You need to do it over months
23:16
and months of hitting constantly the factories and refineries,
23:19
and then you can get results. I think it's achievable.
23:23
I think what's needed is Ukraine needs to scale up the production
23:28
and for that it needs our help, it needs our funding, but it
23:30
also needs some of the production to happen inside of
23:33
Europe because the sites inside of Ukraine get hit by Russia a
23:37
lot. But if we produce some of it in
23:38
Europe as well, then it helps. And some of that is already
23:41
happening. Some of the production is moving
23:43
to the UK, to Denmark and so on. I think that we're on the right
23:47
path. We just have to be patient and
23:49
we need to do more and help more and.
23:52
Only on the December we have voted for 90 billion for Ukraine
23:57
from the EU. That was very good.
23:59
I guess Finland has supported that, obviously, and you support
24:02
it as well. But now Orban's Hungary, he has
24:05
vetoed it in the last moment after first he has agreed in
24:09
order to make a stand for the election.
24:11
What do you think about Orban's policy?
24:14
I mean, Orban is a traitor to me and he deserves to deserves to
24:17
sit in prison. But I'm not very worried about
24:19
that because Orban is a very cheap rifter and populist.
24:23
And he has, when you look at the war, if you look at the last
24:26
four years, he always blocks everything and then he always
24:29
ends up giving up because he's not a very tough man.
24:32
He likes you play a role and you look like he's like the student
24:36
who tries to show to the teacher that he's a good student, but
24:39
he's actually not such a good student.
24:40
And that's what he does to Putin.
24:41
He tries to prove to him all the time that he's a reliable person
24:45
and so on. But at the end of the day, he
24:47
always bends because he needs Europe and Europe is much
24:49
stronger than him. So if France, Germany and others
24:53
go to urban and tell him you stop this, he ends up stopping
24:56
it. And if he doesn't, we can always
24:58
find a way to go around it and to give get the money somehow
25:01
with another mechanism. I'm not so worried about that.
25:04
Obviously it's bad for Ukraine because it slows down the
25:06
process for the 90 billion to arrive there.
25:09
So it's not good and it hurts Ukraine, but I don't believe
25:11
that it's an issue in the long run.
25:13
I think that's just. In April.
25:16
Sorry. There will be elections in April
25:18
in Pune. Exactly, exactly.
25:20
He's trying to do his best for that, and that's one explanation
25:24
of why he's doing it. I really hope that he loses the
25:26
election, but he's going to do his best to cheat and to to win.
25:30
So we have to be careful. And there are lots of people
25:32
voting outside of Hungary who are Hungarians, including in
25:35
Romania, for example, and those will also play a big role.
25:38
And many of them vote for Orban. So it's a complex situation, but
25:43
we have to hope that he's out after April.
25:45
That would be great. Absolutely.
25:47
That's very great center. I hope very much so.
25:50
So let's discuss about Ukraine's future in the UN, NATO first.
25:54
About NATO, what is the opinion in Finland?
25:56
You're a new member of NATO. Do you support that?
25:59
Because that's very much one part of the ideological
26:02
fundament of the war. You can Ukraine have this
26:06
sovereignty to choose its alliance?
26:09
And there's a big debate in Europe.
26:10
There's a lack of invitations in some aspects.
26:14
I'm advocating very much for Ukraine joining NATO and I
26:17
wanted to hear your opinion. What do you recommend for
26:20
Ukraine's future security structure?
26:23
Finland wants Ukraine to join NATO and I want Ukraine to join
26:26
NATO. But Finland's official stance is
26:28
still that the war needs to be over before that happens.
26:31
And in some way, I understand this stance because
26:33
unfortunately, if we we, if we try to make Ukraine join NATO
26:40
now during the war, it will kind of be another reason for Russia
26:46
not to stop the war until you find other excuses and so on.
26:49
I think obviously in the long run, Ukraine needs to be able to
26:53
choose who they side with and to be sovereign enough to do that.
26:56
But I think that that's not the key issue for now.
26:58
Ukraine has a has succeeded at defending itself and defeating
27:02
Russia without NATO. I think that in the short term,
27:05
EU is more realistic for for Ukraine because we know that
27:09
there are people like Audubon inside of NATO who can block and
27:14
veto the membership. So I think EU is more realistic
27:17
in the short run. I think both in the medium to
27:19
long run are realistic and could happen.
27:21
But I think that for both the war needs to end.
27:24
And I don't think that it's it should be, it's important, but I
27:27
don't think that any of them should be the priority for
27:31
Ukraine now in the sense that the priority now is to beat
27:33
Russia and to end the war. But let's discuss about the EU
27:37
future because the big debate has developed now the last weeks
27:40
in Austria, if that's realistic, after the commissioners proposed
27:44
accelerated fast track membership of Ukraine into the
27:49
European Union, which I think is a very good idea.
27:52
But the Austrian politicians have then said, oh, not so fast
27:55
and you know, that's too fast. And Mrs. Michael rising up was
27:59
in Kiev and she said no, no, no, no, no.
28:02
That's we cannot tell to the Austrian population what's the
28:05
opinion of the Finnish people and what's the debate in
28:08
Finland? Do you in principally agree with
28:10
fast enlargement of the European Union and the inclusion of
28:15
Ukraine into EU? We do.
28:17
For us, there's no big debate, debate on that internally.
28:20
For us, it's, it's not something that causes a problem.
28:23
Finland is OK with Ukraine joining Europe.
28:26
So the European Union, we have no problem with that.
28:28
And it's it's barely discussed in in Finland.
28:32
I make one special proposal of mine which may be your follow up
28:36
because I'm also a big fan of Finland joining the Eurozone.
28:39
You have did that very early on. Sweden has not done it and
28:43
Denmark has not. And I'm actually as well for
28:46
Poland to do that and for Ukraine to adopt the euro
28:49
because we need more unity. We need more unity in the
28:52
European Union and we need more financial, economic stability.
28:57
And one of the things which we have done in Kosovo and
28:59
Montenegro after the war, we have introduced the euro and it
29:02
was much better for these countries because the economic
29:05
approximation and improvement and reconstruction was much,
29:08
much better, much faster and no kind of devaluations and all
29:13
these things that we see in Turkey now.
29:15
And because Finland is in the Eurozone and you are really very
29:18
successful with it, why cannot Sweden can jump a little bit or
29:22
Denmark or this country, say, if I may ask you a little bit, also
29:26
for the Danish and Northern perspective, because solidarity,
29:30
you are really great. And I'm really not criticizing
29:33
Finland and Sweden because you both joined NATO.
29:35
But when it comes to big things, it would be really wonderful to
29:39
join the Eurozone in case of Sweden or Denmark, and then for
29:43
example, Greenland would have the euro as well, exactly
29:47
helping us in our debate with Mr. Trump.
29:50
You wouldn't. And that's one reason why
29:52
Finland joined and Sweden and Denmark did not join is the
29:55
geopolitical reason, because we were not in NATO back then.
29:58
So we needed some ways to protect ourselves.
30:01
And we knew that if we would be part of part of the Eurozone,
30:04
then if Russia invades us, it becomes a problem for the Euro
30:08
countries as well. So there was this aspect in why
30:10
we joined. It was a bit pragmatic in in a
30:12
way. Unfortunately, because Denmark
30:14
and Sweden are not neighboring Russia, they don't see this
30:18
aspect at all. And they are in NATO, especially
30:21
now that Sweden is in NATO. So they they think that they
30:23
will be protected no matter what.
30:25
And those are countries, especially Denmark.
30:27
I love Danish people. I have lived in Denmark, but
30:29
Danish people are beat. They love independence and they
30:33
love to be able to decide for themselves.
30:35
They are not huge fans of the EU.
30:36
They don't mind the EU as a concept, but they're not huge
30:39
fans of being told what to do. And they are a country that is
30:42
doing very well economically and who doesn't want to share too
30:45
much on that. They can share and they can help
30:48
Ukraine, obviously, and they do, but they are not the country
30:51
that is the most run by the idea of doing things together.
30:56
They are a bit more selfish in a way, politically and and I think
31:00
that Denmark will. Be happy when we defended them
31:02
in the case of Greenland early. Exactly.
31:05
Exactly. And hopefully maybe that can
31:06
change, but they are not. There are many reasons why Dan
31:09
Danish people have not wanted to join the eurozone and I I hope
31:12
that that will change and I would be for it.
31:15
Obviously I want Poland, I want Sweden, I want Denmark in the
31:18
Eurozone, and I want Switzerland and Norway inside of the
31:21
European Union as well, because I think that they are free
31:24
riders by being outside and it's not fair that they are allowed
31:27
to join our meetings and enjoy many of our benefits without
31:31
being in part of it. And same for Iceland.
31:34
I think that all those places should join the European Union
31:37
and they would make the European Union stronger, but they would
31:39
also benefit from being part of it.
31:42
And and so I'm also. Doing the question about
31:45
Greenland because Trump wanted to have it and he was quite
31:48
bully against us and we defended it.
31:51
And if Greenland returns to you, sorry.
31:56
Yeah. I I can you hear me?
31:58
Yeah. Yes, I just have to change
32:00
something here a little bit. No problem.
32:02
Do I have any echoes? Yeah, which I have no Greenland.
32:07
That would be the perfect thing to join the EU fully, I think,
32:11
because it's not fully inside. I agree and obviously it's up to
32:15
the people of Greenland to decide, but I think that they
32:17
would probably be OK with it. And, and no, no, I'm by
32:21
principle, I'm for having all those in the EUI have nothing
32:27
against EU enlargement in that direction.
32:29
And, and it would protect them and it would protect us.
32:32
And it's also for the EU, the EU, if we would have bases with
32:36
military presence in Greenland, that's, that's beneficial to us.
32:42
We have to stop. And actually that's something I,
32:44
I've been advocating a lot for on Twitter and so on, is that I
32:49
actually oppose my government's view.
32:51
And I oppose the Canadian government's view on this new
32:57
form of realism, that they're pushing, this value based
32:59
realism. Because I think that we should
33:01
stop thinking that we are middle powers and we should stop
33:04
accepting this idea that we are middle powers.
33:06
I think we should push to become a big power and I think that
33:09
value based realism is great at describing the way we have
33:13
behaved after Trump took over. We have been these mid sized
33:16
countries who try to somehow survive and be friendly to
33:19
everyone without being too friendly and so on.
33:21
And this is a bit like Finlandization was during the
33:24
Cold War. And I think that it's the wrong
33:26
strategy. I think it's a great way to
33:28
describe what we do now, but in the long run we cannot survive
33:31
like this. We cannot every few months be in
33:34
a 1mm close situation where we might lose Greenland or
33:37
something. That's not a way forward.
33:39
I think Europe needs its own armed forces.
33:42
We don't need to replace our national armies.
33:44
We need one quick response force on a European level that can
33:48
provide security to a country that is being invaded.
33:51
And those could be based in Greenland, they could be based
33:54
in Estonia, they could be based near the borders that are tough.
33:58
So we need that and we need much more ambitious plans in terms of
34:02
our role in geopolitics, but also on defence.
34:04
And we need much more deterrence militarily.
34:06
We need to depend on the US less and we need to be strong enough
34:10
to be able to do things on our own.
34:11
Because I think it's heck Seth who said that yesterday or I
34:15
don't remember, but someone said something that's true, that you,
34:19
you cannot be free if you're not strong and feared.
34:22
And unfortunately we need that. We need to be stronger and we
34:25
need to be more feared. And because of that, we need to
34:29
improve our military deterrence and we need to stop being a
34:32
middle power. We need to become a big power
34:34
because that's what we are. Vision is not to be like
34:39
Yugoslavia, but to be your own superpower in the EU.
34:43
Exactly we need, we need to stop being the middle power.
34:47
Let me ask you a little bit about Trump, because you were
34:50
very angry on him. I saw on some tweets and you
34:52
called him a traitor, which I also do from time to time.
34:56
Yeah, that was very sympathetic. And I wanted to ask you, what's
34:59
exactly your criticism on Trump when it comes to Ukraine and why
35:03
you call him a traitor? Trump is a liar and he's a
35:06
pathological liar. He lies on everything.
35:08
And unfortunately there are some things, including Ukraine, where
35:11
he keeps his opinions. And despite some changes in
35:15
rhetoric, overall his behavior stays the same.
35:18
And I think that it's extremely wrong from Trump to claim that
35:22
he doesn't want to help Ukraine because he needs the equipment
35:24
to pivot to Asia and to focus more on China.
35:27
But at the same time, he has the equipment to attack Venezuela
35:30
and Iran. So that's a lie and that's
35:33
unfair. It doesn't mean that it's bad
35:34
that he's attacking Iran. I'm not saying that.
35:36
But what I'm saying is that it's unfair for Ukraine to say that
35:39
Ukraine cannot be helped, but we have enough to go to Iran and to
35:43
Venezuela. That's hypocritical and that's
35:46
wrong. And I think that Trump is on the
35:48
wrong side of history. He could have been on the right
35:50
side of history if Trump would be a neo con that goes on
35:54
Venezuela, Iran and Russia. At the same time, he could be
35:57
supported by Republicans and he would gain a lot and he would
36:00
hurt Russia, he would hurt China and that would benefit the US
36:04
and the US position in the world.
36:05
So it's the sad thing is I obviously don't like Trump and I
36:10
don't trust him in anything. I think he's a horrible person,
36:13
but I think that with a small change on Ukraine policy, he
36:16
could make his foreign policy be much more viable.
36:19
Unfortunately, now his policy is still this unstable and weird
36:22
policy where he's an interventionist on some
36:25
countries and he's not in others.
36:26
And on Russia, clearly he doesn't want to pressure them.
36:29
And that's something that's wrong and that's traitorous and,
36:32
and I think that it's something that needs to be called out
36:34
constantly. But, you know, the liberation of
36:37
Iran is coming and it's ongoing, obviously turning into regime
36:40
change. It will be an intensive
36:42
campaign. And it is also creating an
36:45
opening now for the Europeans to support Ukraine much more
36:48
because the Russian resources are distracted.
36:50
America is basically engaging in the in this war intensively
36:55
because Iran and Russia exes allies.
36:58
And so we have this opportunity now not to so much send another
37:02
aircraft carrier to Iran, which the French are proposing.
37:06
Yeah, got to send this aircraft carrier from the French into the
37:10
Black Sea and bomb Putin out of Crimea.
37:14
That would be the logic actually, if we have a
37:16
consistent grand strategy. What do you think about the
37:19
Europeans? We are running like the chicken
37:21
now after Trump to Iran, where we anyhow cannot help so much or
37:25
we should really focus on the liberation of Crimea.
37:28
Yeah, I I agree that we are running like chicken and we are
37:31
following Trump. And obviously I don't think that
37:33
France is going to bomb Crimea or the Black Sea, but I think
37:37
that we should focus, Our focus should be on Ukraine.
37:39
And Trump has asked us to focus on Europe.
37:42
So why don't we do it? We should do what Trump said.
37:44
We should focus on Europe and we should focus on helping Ukraine
37:46
more. And that would be the the right
37:49
thing. I think that the operation in
37:51
Iran has both positive and negative sides for Ukraine.
37:55
The negative ones include the oil prices going up, which can
37:58
help Russia succeed longer and survive longer.
38:01
So that's risky. And also all the Patriot
38:04
interceptors, for example, that are being used by the US in the
38:08
Middle East to counter, to counter Iranian missiles and and
38:13
so on. That is bad for Ukraine because
38:15
there is already a shortage of this air defence inside the US
38:19
in their stocks, so they cannot sell more to Ukraine if they use
38:22
them in the Middle East. So there are downsides for
38:24
Ukraine, but as you said, there are also upsides with the axis
38:27
of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran being weakened.
38:31
They lost Venezuela, they lost Assad, now they're losing
38:35
Khamenei. That's very positive for
38:37
Ukraine. And obviously it throws that
38:39
Russian military equipment is also not that good because the
38:41
US can just destroy it like that in a second.
38:44
So there are upsides and downsides and risks for Ukraine
38:47
in this. I think that you're right that
38:49
Europe should focus much more on on Europe and on Ukraine on this
38:54
case. We don't have much of A role to
38:56
play there. If Israel and the US want to go
38:58
on Iran, they can go. And it has benefits and
39:01
downsides for us. That's fine.
39:03
But it's not like we can do much for it.
39:05
And I think that it's a mistake for us to send one of our few
39:08
aircraft carriers in Europe to the Mediterranean because it
39:11
shouldn't be there. It doesn't help anything.
39:13
So, yeah, what I fear about this Iran operation, just to get back
39:17
on it, is that I support bombing coming A and I'm against the
39:21
Iranian regime. But what I don't like is I think
39:24
if you go against Iran, you either don't go or you go fully,
39:28
but you cannot go in between. And my fear is that Trump will
39:32
do an in between because we saw what Trump did in Venezuela.
39:36
He made an operation and then after that, he decided to stop
39:39
the operation and to negotiate with the people in power and to
39:42
to keep them in power. And unfortunately, it looks like
39:45
it's also his plan in Iran, at least he has been talking about
39:48
it. Now, if he doesn't manage to
39:51
make a real regime change with bombings, he will try to make
39:53
some sort of Venezuela 2 point O, where he tries to take
39:56
someone from the current leadership and to threaten them
40:00
and to put them in power and to control them.
40:02
And that would be very bad for the people of Iran, because the
40:05
people of Iran, they deserve to actually have something else
40:09
than Ayatollah and to have something else than this regime.
40:12
So. I think if you go for regime
40:14
change, you have to fully go for regime change and not do some in
40:17
between 50% regime change. And my fear with Trump is that
40:21
he will go for a 50% regime change.
40:23
And my fear with Netanyahu is also that because Netanyahu
40:27
benefits from having a Iran that is still an enemy, but that is
40:31
weak. He wants Iran to be weak, but he
40:33
also wants to keep an enemy because that gives him a reason
40:36
to survive politically and that gives Israel a reason to also be
40:40
ready constantly and to and so on.
40:42
So it's beneficial for Trump and Netanyahu to not fully eliminate
40:46
the enemy in Iran, but to weaken him.
40:48
And that's a bit scary for the people of Iran.
40:51
I think the people of Iran, they deserve elections.
40:54
They deserve actual democracy. And I would prefer that and I
40:58
would also prefer that in Venezuela.
40:59
And that's my fear with the current operation.
41:02
So. So yeah, we'll see how it
41:04
evolves. But Europe should focus on
41:06
Europe here. We should not focus on on Iran.
41:08
Iran is not really our problem. Our problem is existential and
41:12
it's the war in Ukraine and we need to fully focus on that.
41:15
And we need victory there and victory in Ukraine.
41:18
Liberation of Crimea should also lead to the fall of Putin
41:22
because on X that we're both very active.
41:24
You see a lot of these memes. Yeah.
41:26
Where now after the fall of Khamenei, it's Putin's turn.
41:30
So what's your what's your optimism here?
41:32
What makes you optimistic that once we have won the war and
41:35
Crimea, there will be also the fall of Putin coming up?
41:40
I think that Putin has made this war very existential for him.
41:43
And that's also a reason why he cannot negotiate an end to the
41:46
war. He keeps wanting to fight
41:48
because as long as the war is going, it's not a defeat.
41:51
But once it stops, it becomes a defeat for him.
41:54
And and because of that, I don't think that Putin can survive the
41:57
current scenario. Obviously, the war is not over.
42:00
We don't know how it will end, but with the current scenario,
42:03
Putin cannot survive. And Putin is also a bit old and
42:05
he's maybe a bit less popular than he has been in the past in
42:09
Russia. So I'm quite optimistic.
42:11
And as I discussed earlier, I think there is a way forward to
42:14
win this war. And it's not based on territory.
42:17
It's based on ruling Russia's economy, which strikes with
42:21
Flamingo missiles, with Neptune missiles, with FP1 and FP2
42:25
drones. If Ukraine can triple or
42:28
quadruple the production of these and even more, and strike
42:32
Russia constantly and constantly, then Russia's
42:34
economy will shrink. And once their economy shrinks,
42:37
they have to shrink the army as well.
42:38
And that's when the opportunity comes to liberate occupied
42:42
territories and so on. I think Ukraine should be
42:44
patient. Ukraine should not try to
42:46
liberate too much and waste too many men now, because Russia
42:49
still has a big army in Ukraine. But if Ukraine manages to
42:53
destroy the economy in the next one or two years after that, it
42:56
will be much easier to to deoccupy the lands and to get
43:00
much more back. And Russia will be much more
43:02
desperate at that time and much more can happen.
43:05
So I'm, I'm optimistic. I think obviously this war is
43:08
horrible and Ukraine is suffering because of it.
43:10
But there are opportunities for Ukraine to get much more back
43:13
and a better situation at the end of it.
43:15
But it requires patience and it requires dismantling Russia's
43:18
economy. I think what's happening with
43:20
the strikes is more important than what happens on the ground
43:23
in terms of liberating occupied territories.
43:29
Thanks a lot, Yoni. This was my podcast with Yoni
43:31
Ascola, who is a Finnish fighter for Ukraine, a man who has from
43:35
the first moment supported the Ukrainians and is also very
43:39
active in the public opinion of the world with I think 90,000
43:43
followers on X and is one of the persons who puts the finger in
43:47
the wound of the Austrian neutrality, of the Swiss
43:50
neutrality, Maltese neutrality. Cyprus has now seen actually
43:54
that it's much better to be inside NATO because they were
43:58
attacked by the Shahid Thrones just this weekend.
44:01
And also the Irish should obviously join NATO.
44:04
And ultimately I think Ukraine and the whole European should be
44:08
in one defense alliance. This is the way forward.
44:11
The finish have shown us the way.
44:12
Your leadership is appreciated and unique.
44:15
And thanks a lot, Yoni, for coming to the show. 1 last
44:18
statement from your side. What's your last famous last
44:22
words for victory? My famous last words before I
44:26
just want to say thank you, Gunther for having me on the on
44:28
the podcast. And my famous last words is that
44:31
overall, things are actually quite under control.
44:34
Obviously the war is horrible and many horrible things are
44:36
happening. But at the end of the day, our
44:38
opponents are really good at propaganda and they are much
44:41
weaker than they claim to be or that they look.
44:44
And we're much closer to victory, whether it's against
44:46
Russia, whether it's against China, whether it's against
44:48
Iran. We're much closer to victory and
44:51
the West and our values are superior.
44:53
And because of that, we will end up winning at the end.
44:56
We just have to be patient and believe in it and keep fighting.
45:00
Trust the Finn. Thanks a lot, Yoni.
45:02
Thanks very much appreciated. Thank you.
45:05
I will close the recording now. The recording has stopped.
45:10
Thanks a lot. It was very good discussion.
45:12
Thanks a lot. I appreciate it.
45:13
Thank you. It was on YouTube Live.
45:15
I will make it a podcast in the coming days.
45:17
Yeah, and we'll share it also the YouTube Live immediately on.
45:22
Then I will I will share it once you make the YouTube videos.
45:24
I will also share it on X and so on.
45:27
Perfect, very much appreciate it.
45:28
If you want, we can also work on Instagram the coming days to
45:31
share some clips and. I don't use Instagram but but
45:35
but that's great. And yeah, thanks.
45:37
Thanks for having me. It's welcome.