Latest / AG Bull / SPECIAL EDITION: Wiesemeyer's Perspectives with David Wasserman | The Cook Political Report

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SPECIAL EDITION: Wiesemeyer's Perspectives with David Wasserman | The Cook Political Report · AG Bull

0:09
SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
0:11
SPEAKER_00: Tommy Grossoffi, AgBull Media, Ag Bull Trading.
0:13
SPEAKER_00: We have a special, and when I say special, we see Meyer's perspective.
0:18
SPEAKER_00: Now we have Mr.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: David Washerman from the Cook Political Report.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: You may not know him, you may know a lot about him, but we're gonna have a rapid fire baker's dozen.
0:30
SPEAKER_00: Jim made the list, and the hardest part of filming this episode is Jim told me I couldn't talk.
0:36
SPEAKER_00: With that, let's play a little video for Jim, and then we'll welcome David onto the show.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: Sit down, enjoy.
1:14
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna figure out this vicious political season called midterms.
1:19
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
1:19
SPEAKER_00: David Wasserman, a Chicago native, I think, right?
1:25
SPEAKER_02: New Jersey, but who who needs to hear that?
1:28
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
1:29
SPEAKER_00: Both politics and both uh states have their their concerns and are questionable.
1:34
SPEAKER_02: But let's get right voters, yes.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for pulling over.
1:39
SPEAKER_00: I won't be in the show a lot, but I do want to ask you a couple questions right off the bat.
1:43
SPEAKER_00: How did you get started in this business?
1:45
SPEAKER_00: And then as simple as, what business are you in?
1:49
SPEAKER_02: Well, I'm an election forecaster, and I got interested in politics when I was 11 or 12 years old.
1:55
SPEAKER_02: My love of maps came first.
1:57
SPEAKER_02: I was just drawn to anything with a map.
2:01
SPEAKER_02: And then I discovered C-SPAN.
2:03
SPEAKER_02: And in middle school, I just started reading the almanac of American politics at the library, and I would see political pundits like Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg and Larry Saboteau on TV.
2:18
SPEAKER_02: And I made it my mission to go to Virginia and study under a professor Saboteau there.
2:23
SPEAKER_02: He had a website called the Crystal Ball where he prognosticated elections.
2:28
SPEAKER_02: And I uh ended up working for him for several years and then getting hired on through a lucky internship with Charlie Cook to the Cook Political Report in 2007.
2:40
SPEAKER_02: And I was the chief of our house forecasts until 2024.
2:44
SPEAKER_02: Now I'm a senior editor, and we cover everything from uh from uh the house races to the presidency and and obviously the Senate and gubernatorial elections as well.
2:55
SPEAKER_02: Boy, do we have a lot to cover this year.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's get right into it.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: Gentlemen, have a great show.
3:01
SPEAKER_00: I do want to see you guys poke fun at each other.
3:04
SPEAKER_00: You already had one before we started.
3:06
SPEAKER_00: You said we might need to redo the thumbnail or something, but uh you guys are looking good.
3:11
SPEAKER_00: I have to tell you, I'm watching the markets, I'm trading the markets today.
3:15
SPEAKER_00: We're having a big move in the stocks, and I don't know how much of this is political or geopolitical, but you guys figure it out and big move down?
3:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, NASDAQ's having a big move down, and Jim, the bonds are exploding higher, the tenure yields under five percent.
3:29
SPEAKER_00: Have a good show, guys.
3:31
SPEAKER_01: Okay, here we go.
3:32
SPEAKER_01: Okay, David, first of all, thanks a lot for uh taking your time because I know this is your very, very busy schedule.
3:38
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna begin right away.
3:40
SPEAKER_01: First, the bottom line predictions, just the bottom line.
3:43
SPEAKER_01: We'll get into dissecting first the house and then the senate.
3:47
SPEAKER_01: What's your prognostication on the house?
3:50
SPEAKER_02: Well, Jim, first of all, thanks for having me on.
3:52
SPEAKER_02: We've got a lot of blow hard candidates this year, but no one can blow as hard as Jim Weismeyer.
3:57
SPEAKER_02: So it's an honor.
3:59
SPEAKER_02: And I I I feel fortunate that I haven't been at a same conference with you, Jim, to catch whatever you've got there.
4:05
SPEAKER_02: But bottom lines on House and Senate, look, the House is gone for Republicans.
4:09
SPEAKER_02: It's just a question of how high this wave is going to go.
4:13
SPEAKER_02: And we're seeing some shocking polling numbers in districts that Trump won not just by five or 10 points in 2024, but in some cases 15 or 20 points.
4:24
SPEAKER_02: And Republicans have have two kinds of problems here.
4:28
SPEAKER_02: First of all, we're noticing the biggest shifts towards Democrats in the places that swung the hardest towards Trump over the last 10 years.
4:37
SPEAKER_02: And we're finding out that it wasn't necessarily that these voters in the places they realigned as Republicans, but they were drawn to Trump based on his promises of a strong economy.
4:48
SPEAKER_02: Uh but they may have been on borrowed time, and now they're kind of reverting back to their Democratic roots in places like Iowa and Ohio and South Texas and South Florida, and even in a district in Kentucky.
5:02
SPEAKER_02: The second issue we're seeing for Republicans is open seats.
5:07
SPEAKER_02: So there are several Republicans with distinct brands independent from Trump, incumbents who are still polling well and they're still in the game, whether it's Susan Collins in Maine or Ashley Henson in Iowa, Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania.
5:22
SPEAKER_02: But then in these open seats, and boy, do we have a lot of them on the Republican side, candidates are less well known.
5:29
SPEAKER_02: And so they're getting dragged down even more by Donald Trump.
5:32
SPEAKER_02: When I push all of our toss-ups in the House in one direction or the other based on the current polling we're seeing, I get to Democrats gaining about 20 house seats.
5:41
SPEAKER_02: Now that would land them at 235, which is very similar to it's it's the seat count they ended up with after 2018.
5:49
SPEAKER_02: Yes, and a little more than maybe two seats more than in 2006.
5:55
SPEAKER_02: Could it go higher than that?
5:56
SPEAKER_02: It could because Trump's approval is worse than it was in 2018.
6:01
SPEAKER_02: He's at 37% in our tracker today, which is as low as it's ever been.
6:06
SPEAKER_02: And then in the Senate, we're looking at uh Democrats as this favorites for the majority.
6:13
SPEAKER_02: Now, I would not put their odds as high as Nate Silver, my friend and and competitor, puts them at 75% chance that the Senate will flip.
6:21
SPEAKER_02: I'm more in the 60 to 65 percent range uh on Senate control for Democrats, but the seats are are there for them.
6:32
SPEAKER_02: Democrats are going to pick up North Carolina, Republicans have pulled out of that state.
6:35
SPEAKER_02: And that means that Democrats only need three more flips to get to 51 seats.
6:40
SPEAKER_02: Today they're ahead in Ohio, Sherrod Brown, Alaska, Mary Paltola, and then it's kind of a coin flip as far as Maine and Texas.
6:49
SPEAKER_02: Those are the two races I'm most conflicted about.
6:52
SPEAKER_02: Today it appears that James Tallerico is the slight favorite, which I can't believe I'm even saying Texas.
7:00
SPEAKER_02: And then in Maine, I have a sneaking suspicion that Susan Collins is going to pull this out.
7:06
SPEAKER_02: But both of those two races are at the fulcrum of Senate control.
7:10
SPEAKER_02: And then after that, Iowa is close.
7:13
SPEAKER_02: I give a tiny edge to Ashley Henson, the Republican, followed by Kansas, where I would give it infinitesimal advantage to Roger Marshall.
7:22
SPEAKER_02: And then you get into some longer shots, Nebraska, South Carolina.
7:26
SPEAKER_02: But I see the median outcome as Democrats winning 51 Senate seats, uh, with potentially John Fetterman being the wild card in the Senate.
7:37
SPEAKER_01: Wow.
7:38
SPEAKER_01: The okay, I'm gonna go through a number of other states later here, but first, when you mentioned a wave, uh, how do you define a blue wave?
7:49
SPEAKER_02: Well, a wave is a flip of of party control of Congress or one party winning just a you know dominant share of the vote and seats.
8:01
SPEAKER_02: And we have not seen a really big wave since you know 2018 or 2010.
8:11
SPEAKER_02: I this is a bit different from those years because we have so many factors converging at once.
8:17
SPEAKER_02: And unpopular war, we've got unpopular prices and unpopular legislation in the form of the healthcare changes under the one big beautiful bill.
8:28
SPEAKER_02: And I'd add kind of a fourth throwback midterm if you're if you're considering you know 2006, 2010, 2022 as wave elections.
8:38
SPEAKER_02: I look back all the way 40 years to to 1986 when you you had a lot of economic anxiety in farm country as well, and Democrats picked up eight Senate seats, including both Dakotas, with a 25% foreclosure rate on family farms.
8:56
SPEAKER_02: That that was a Senate wave election, and it's possible Democrats in a true tsunami could get 54 Senate seats.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: And that would be a wave.
9:07
SPEAKER_02: Correct.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
9:09
SPEAKER_01: Now, the the the other side tells me that early voting, is it true that early voting inf data generally shows actual democratic turnout behind 2022 and 2018 midterm levels, especially among blacks in the 18 to 30 year old group?
9:27
SPEAKER_02: Don't believe everything you see on the internet because this is early voting data can be spun more than any other data out there.
9:37
SPEAKER_02: Uh, first of all, when you're in the final month of the election, everyone is starved for any indicator that they can get.
9:45
SPEAKER_02: Well, and and because there are so many junk polls out there, and let's be honest, a lot of these outfits are garbage.
9:52
SPEAKER_02: In fact, one outfit came out and said this week, we were making it all up, and we're just out to prove a point that reporters and news outlets are gullible.
10:02
SPEAKER_02: And guess what?
10:02
SPEAKER_02: They are gullible.
10:04
SPEAKER_02: But but that means that that everyone's looking for hard data.
10:09
SPEAKER_02: And early voting numbers are hard data.
10:11
SPEAKER_02: How can you dispute the number of people who turned out?
10:14
SPEAKER_02: But there are massive limitations in interpreting it because just by knowing the number of people who've turned out, we don't know who they voted for, particularly the unaffiliated voters.
10:26
SPEAKER_02: And we also don't know what the final electorate will look like until the polls close on November 3rd, because most of the voters who are still up for grabs are not the ones who are voting early, they're the ones who are waiting until November 3rd.
10:41
SPEAKER_01: Now, a lot of Democrats typically vote early, don't they?
10:45
SPEAKER_01: But they're the they're not so much this time.
10:49
SPEAKER_02: Well uh you can you can look at at different metrics and come to vastly uh different conclusions.
10:58
SPEAKER_02: So in Texas, I've seen data that suggests that Democrats have a massive advantage in early voting.
11:06
SPEAKER_02: I've seen in Virginia relative to recent elections.
11:09
SPEAKER_02: In Virginia, I've seen more lukewarm numbers for for Democrats in as far as if you match up the voters who have cast ballots with how they've participated in in recent primaries.
11:21
SPEAKER_02: But unless you're really benchmarking it with what what the what's happened at this exact point in the cycle two or four years ago, it's really hard to draw inferences.
11:31
SPEAKER_02: And even then, every cycle has kind of a different rhythm to whose voters are more engaged.
11:37
SPEAKER_02: We know from the polling data, Democrats are more engaged than Republicans.
11:42
SPEAKER_02: We know it from the special election and off-year election data where Democrats have vastly overperformed.
11:48
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
11:49
SPEAKER_01: The I I got a note from someone today who said some see a silver tsunami is developing as the 65 plus crowd is the most engaged today, until today, and are voting more for the Republicans to reject open borders and socialism.
12:07
SPEAKER_01: Now that's a slanted viewpoint, but you have any comment on that?
12:10
SPEAKER_01: Is that true at all?
12:13
SPEAKER_02: We're seeing less of an erosion in Republican support among seniors than we are among 18 to 34-year-olds.
12:22
SPEAKER_02: That's that's true, but I would not characterize this as a conservative backlash among seniors.
12:30
SPEAKER_02: The the demographic groups where we have seen the biggest movement versus 2024 are white voters without college degrees.
12:39
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, blue-collar whites who gave Trump 64% of their votes in 24 today, he's only at 48% approval.
12:47
SPEAKER_02: So he's net negative with his best group other than Republicans, at least in our tracker.
12:52
SPEAKER_02: And then Hispanic voters, where he won a very impressive share of the vote in 24 at 48%.
12:59
SPEAKER_02: Now he's down to 31% approval, and then independent unaffiliated voters, where he was at 48% support in 24, and now he's at 27% approval.
13:10
SPEAKER_02: So those are the the places that I'd watch for the biggest surprises are the places with the highest concentrations of those three groups.
13:19
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
13:20
SPEAKER_01: Can can can the polls be can the can any polls be trusted, David?
13:25
SPEAKER_01: I know that's a that is a legitimate question that I hear from a lot of people.
13:30
SPEAKER_02: Look, I completely understand the skepticism and I share it because we have such low response rates.
13:39
SPEAKER_02: We're down to less than 1% of people who are answering surveys, whether it's phone-based or web-based or text-to-web.
13:47
SPEAKER_02: And those 1% are the ones who are bored enough to talk to a pollster or not sophisticated enough to screen their calls, and we're relying on them to accurately model the attitudes of the other 99% of us.
14:00
SPEAKER_02: So it's amazing that polls have been as close to the mark as they have been because you do have non-response bias.
14:07
SPEAKER_02: And the issue that we could have with polls this year is that Democrats are hyper-excited.
14:14
SPEAKER_02: They're very angry at Trump, and so they're more likely to respond to a pollster than Republicans.
14:19
SPEAKER_02: Every pollster is having to reweight their sample to upweight certain groups, including Republicans, young voters who are less likely to respond to try and match where they think they'll be as a share of the electorate.
14:35
SPEAKER_02: And so that weighting process means that every pollster is making a different assumption about who will turn out that may or may not be right.
14:43
SPEAKER_02: The fear that I have, and the reason why, in my mind, a you know, a two-point lead for Josh Turek at 46-44 turns into a Hinson victory for Republicans, or that a Troy Jackson lead of 48-46 over Susan Collins translates into a Collins win, is we may not be getting the right kinds of independence in these samples.
15:10
SPEAKER_02: In fact, the Democratic-leaning independents may be more likely than the Republican ones to answer a survey.
15:17
SPEAKER_02: And uh the other fear that I have is that the undecided share in these surveys, they are a they're a group that is deeply disenchanted with both parties.
15:32
SPEAKER_02: They disapprove the job Trump's doing, but they really dislike the DSA and left of the Democratic Party.
15:40
SPEAKER_02: At the end of the day, I think that block is more likely to fall back in line with Republicans because that's their baseline uh proclivity.
15:50
SPEAKER_02: And so in these in these red states where these Senate battles are playing out and the polls are very tight, I think the tie probably goes to the Republican.
16:00
SPEAKER_02: But in Texas, where you have Talarico consistently ahead by four or five points in the survey, you know, that's what kind of tips it to him in my mind, as opposed to if he were only ahead by one or two.
16:13
SPEAKER_01: I don't know whether you saw Brett Bear's show the other night on the the special report on Fox News where he he under his assumption that the polls were undercounting Republican votes, he came up with a Senate tally of 52 to 48 in favor of the Republicans.
16:31
SPEAKER_01: Had you seen that or not?
16:33
SPEAKER_02: Well, it's plausible.
16:35
SPEAKER_02: Look, uh, the only race that both parties agree is over and as a Democratic flip is North Carolina.
16:41
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
16:42
SPEAKER_02: And beyond that, Republicans believe they still have prospects in Michigan and Minnesota to pick off Democratic seats.
16:49
SPEAKER_02: I'm very skeptical of that.
16:51
SPEAKER_02: But then you've got, you know, uh Ohio and Alaska, which are leaning towards the Democrats, but are not over yet.
17:01
SPEAKER_02: Both parties are spending heavily there.
17:03
SPEAKER_02: I think John Husted was smart to try and distance himself from Vivek Ramaswamy this week over an ad that Ramaswamy ran in Ohio.
17:12
SPEAKER_02: In Ohio.
17:12
SPEAKER_02: And you know, Alaska Peltola's ahead, but it's it's still quite tight.
17:18
SPEAKER_02: And if if Republicans rank choice, their set their second and third choice, because Alaska has a very wonky election system, and the general election ballot features one Democrat and three Republicans, including two people named Dan Sullivan, that forces Republicans to kind of consolidate and rank their candidates on the ballot so that they don't, so that their votes aren't wasted, they could still pull that race out.
17:46
SPEAKER_02: So, yes, I I don't think 5248 for Republicans is out of the question, but I think 5248 for the Democrats is more likely.
17:55
SPEAKER_01: It is Trump's trade policy, especially toward Canada, has that impacted that Ohio race and maybe Maine and maybe uh you know a couple of others?
18:06
SPEAKER_02: Any state that touches the auto industry or that the auto industry touches, Michigan, you know, Michigan is the epicenter, there's no doubt, but it's also infecting Ohio and Iowa in a big way.
18:23
SPEAKER_02: And I'd add in Kansas, because keep in mind we've got Cessna and Bombardier in Wichita.
18:29
SPEAKER_02: Uh talk about Canadian trade.
18:31
SPEAKER_02: I mean, that that is significant there.
18:33
SPEAKER_02: And you've got a robust RD and aerospace workforce there that's impacted.
18:39
SPEAKER_02: Democrats are making hay out of this.
18:41
SPEAKER_02: But look, if it weren't for this Canadian trade war, I might say Republican Mike Rogers would be the favorite for Michigan's open Senate seat.
18:51
SPEAKER_02: But Abdul El Sayyed may end up winning it in spite of himself because voters are really skittish about not only the the trade war, but high interest rates, which negatively impacts the automotive industry.
19:06
SPEAKER_01: So you're seeing El Sayed winning in Michigan?
19:09
SPEAKER_02: Yes, although he has not been a strong candidate.
19:13
SPEAKER_02: And in fact, he has a tendency to want to draw attention to himself for being a uh you know a star or kind of victimized by Republicans who are trying to other him, uh, rather than making sure the spotlight is on Trump and linking Rogers to Trump.
19:35
SPEAKER_02: So you know Abdul El Sayed has has been more or less his own campaign manager, which is to his detriment.
19:43
SPEAKER_02: You need advisors to uh and a brain trust to enforce your strategy.
19:50
SPEAKER_01: And he faded at the end in the primary, did he not?
19:54
SPEAKER_01: Remember when they had him up 15 to 20 points, I think that's right.
19:58
SPEAKER_02: And and I think a lot of that had to do with Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who's very popular among Democrats of the state, endorsed the other candidate in the primary, Haley Stevens, pretty late in that primary, and that moved black voters towards towards Stevens.
20:12
SPEAKER_02: Now El Sayed has some weakness with black voters in Michigan.
20:16
SPEAKER_02: And keep in mind, you know, a a there there are historical tensions between um, you know, uh Christian uh black voters and Muslim voters in southeast Michigan.
20:29
SPEAKER_02: And if he's able, and and that's why Barack Obama's presence and endorsing El Syed is critical to his chances.
20:38
SPEAKER_02: I think it will be enough to get him over the top.
20:40
SPEAKER_02: But look, in a climate like this, a Democrat should be able to win Michigan by 10 points, and El Cyed may win by two.
20:49
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
20:49
SPEAKER_01: I want to recap and then you know go to a couple other states.
20:52
SPEAKER_01: But Alaska, right now, you see the Democrat winning, but not by much.
20:57
SPEAKER_01: Is that correct?
20:58
SPEAKER_02: Correct.
20:58
SPEAKER_01: And then Iowa, Henson ahead, but not by much.
21:03
SPEAKER_02: That's right.
21:04
SPEAKER_02: And you know, Henson has done a good job of campaigning as a bipartisan legislator who will work work with Democrats.
21:13
SPEAKER_02: It's allowed her to rise on uh rise above Trump's unpopularity, uh especially with with uh suburban voters in Iowa.
21:21
SPEAKER_02: So that that, in my view, makes her a very slight favorite.
21:25
SPEAKER_01: How about the governor's race in Iowa with Rob Sand?
21:29
SPEAKER_01: Looks like he's gonna win, right?
21:30
SPEAKER_01: Will he bring enough the Democrats to help the other candidates?
21:35
SPEAKER_02: Well, uh look, there's so much spending in Iowa that I don't I don't know that either race is is the primary turnout driver.
21:43
SPEAKER_02: I think you know uh Democrats are very energized regardless, but Rob Sand is well ahead in that governor's race.
21:52
SPEAKER_02: And keep in mind that there's some unique state level dynamics in these races.
21:57
SPEAKER_02: Kim Reynolds, the outgoing Republican governor, is woefully unpopular amid the implementation of a school voucher program, and that has that kind of set.
22:09
SPEAKER_02: Up this stage for uh for Rob Sand, who is the only statewide Democratic office holder remaining.
22:15
SPEAKER_02: But then also Zach Lane, who won the Republican primary, has some residency questions given that his kids have gone to school in Kansas.
22:24
SPEAKER_02: He's voted there in recent past elections and only kind of relocated to his family homestead in advance of this election cycle.
22:35
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
22:36
SPEAKER_01: And Maine again, you see Susan Collins, who's been a good candidate consistently, probably going to win again.
22:43
SPEAKER_02: Well, it's very tight, but uh here's my here's the lay of the land in Maine.
22:49
SPEAKER_02: Susan Collins' argument to voters is that they need her seniority, that she's the chair of the appropriations committee and she's develop she's delivering billions in federal funds to Maine.
23:02
SPEAKER_02: And Democrats got an opportunity for a reset when Graham Plattner withdrew from the race amid sexual assault allegations, and they got behind Troy Jackson, uh, the former state senate president.
23:13
SPEAKER_02: And Jackson he he doesn't have a college degree, he's got unimpeachable blue-collar credentials as a as a logger, but he also lacks Plattner's charisma.
23:27
SPEAKER_02: And he has had a real hard time driving a message.
23:31
SPEAKER_02: And in fact, the Democrats' message against Collins has been a jumble.
23:35
SPEAKER_02: They've alternately accused her of corruption for her ties to a defense contractor for who was indicted several years ago.
23:41
SPEAKER_02: They've accused her of voting to cover up the Epstein files.
23:44
SPEAKER_02: Maine voters just don't buy that stuff because they've they've known her for 30 years.
23:49
SPEAKER_02: And in fact, the only Democratic message that really works is that she would be the decisive vote for Republican control of the Senate, and therefore the Supreme Court and the Trump agenda and all the rest of it.
24:02
SPEAKER_02: But that's not really breaking through.
24:05
SPEAKER_02: And Collins is only behind on average one or two points in these polls.
24:10
SPEAKER_02: That's been a comfortable place for her in the past.
24:14
SPEAKER_02: She's she's been able to win because at the end of the day, these undecided main voters they stick with the devil they know.
24:21
SPEAKER_02: I think that's going to happen here.
24:23
SPEAKER_01: What has happened in Ohio where early on Usted what looked to be a good candidate, but now Sherrod Brown is ahead by how many points?
24:34
SPEAKER_02: Well, four or five.
24:36
SPEAKER_02: We got out of the field with a poll that showed Brown ahead 49 to 44 this week.
24:42
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
24:43
SPEAKER_02: And Brown is a uniquely strong Democrat for Ohio because he's a very effective populist candidate.
24:54
SPEAKER_02: And you know, he's he's got that wild hair.
24:57
SPEAKER_02: He's been to every union hall in the state.
25:00
SPEAKER_02: Kamala was losing the state by 11 last cycle.
25:03
SPEAKER_02: He only lost re-election by three and a half.
25:05
SPEAKER_02: So he gets into this race against Husted, and he he did he had kind of two lines of attack on Husted that have proven effective.
25:14
SPEAKER_02: One tying him to through his uh campaign don't donations to first energy and and high utility rates, but also attacking Husted for his work attracting big tech to Ohio and therefore data centers.
25:33
SPEAKER_02: And Brown has just completely demagogued the data center issue.
25:37
SPEAKER_02: And it's it it has worked.
25:40
SPEAKER_02: And Husted has let's just say that his appearances alongside the president have have been extremely awkward.
25:47
SPEAKER_02: Uh not not because of Husted, but because of the president.
25:51
SPEAKER_02: And and you throw in the Ramaswamy effect, and it this race has gone south.
25:59
SPEAKER_01: Texas.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: I want to go back to that.
26:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it is quite unusual to see Talerico perhaps the winner of that.
26:06
SPEAKER_01: Is that uh it is it because obviously it's Ken Paxton has been a very bad candidate, the wrong candidate.
26:14
SPEAKER_02: Well, let's just put it this way when when you've been impeached by your own party, when you had to overcome an indictment on securities fraud charges, and when your own wife divorced you on biblical grounds, that's that's not a place candidates typically like to start.
26:31
SPEAKER_02: But then when there are photos that have come out of you partying in Dubai on New Year's Eve with your mistress, as well as two fugitives from uh who are wanted by by American law enforcement agencies, uh it's not a good look.
26:48
SPEAKER_02: Now, uh Talarico is an Austin liberal, it's not as if he's a conservative, you know, old-time Ann Richards Texas Democrat.
26:58
SPEAKER_02: No, this guy is on record saying the things that he has said about God being nine binary and six genders and uh Jesus was a radical feminist, but uh that has that has been less effective as lines of attack for Republicans with uh Trump in the White House.
27:19
SPEAKER_02: It was more effective when Democrats were in the White House and the transgender stuff was was uh you know more closely attached to Kamala Harris because of the things she said in the past.
27:33
SPEAKER_02: Now we're seeing confluence of factors in rural Texas, uh, including anger at these transmission lines that are built underway to try and power more data centers.
27:46
SPEAKER_02: But you also have this Hispanic reversion to Democrats in South Texas and some ticket splitting going on in in the suburbs, particularly around DFW, where voters are are traditional Republican voters are still voting for Greg Abbott for governor, but either voting Talo Rico or voting for the libertarian Ted Brown in the Senate race.
28:09
SPEAKER_02: Now, look, I still think this is going to be very, very close.
28:13
SPEAKER_02: And I I think Paxton still has an opportunity, but I'd give Taler Rico a 55 or 60 percent chance.
28:21
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
28:22
SPEAKER_01: Georgia uh also looks like an what should I say, easy winner?
28:26
SPEAKER_02: Well, he looks like a presidential candidate at the moment, and he's kind of getting ahead of himself, but this is not even close.
28:34
SPEAKER_02: Republicans have pulled out of the state, and they're worried that it might infect the governor's race between Rick Jackson and Keisha Lance Bottoms.
28:42
SPEAKER_02: The problem here, you know, similar to the dynamic in Ohio, where the decisive voters are kind of your Mike DeWine Republicans.
28:51
SPEAKER_02: In Georgia, the decisive voters are your Brian Kemp Republicans in those northern Atlanta suburbs primarily.
28:58
SPEAKER_02: And Kemp signaled in the primary that he he wanted a different candidate, uh Derek Dooley.
29:05
SPEAKER_02: And instead, the more MAGA candidate, Mike Collins, prevailed.
29:10
SPEAKER_02: And Osof had built just a massive uh head start fundraising that he was able to whack Collins out of the gate as an entitled, you know, silver spoon radical MAGA Republican.
29:28
SPEAKER_02: And so now Ossoff is trying to angle for the 28 Democratic presidential nomination, and he's ahead in some early surveys of this very crowded field.
29:39
SPEAKER_02: And it could depend on the outcome of the governor's race because Democrats would be less likely to support Ossoff for president if a Republican governor, Rick Jackson, were to appoint his successor.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: Minnesota.
29:54
SPEAKER_01: How close is the Republican candidate to winning?
29:57
SPEAKER_02: About three points away, but uh three points.
30:00
SPEAKER_02: But getting that last three points is like losing that last five pounds.
30:05
SPEAKER_02: It's it's it's uh there are a couple different things going on in Minnesota.
30:11
SPEAKER_02: Voters are really angry at Tim Walls and by extension, Peggy Flanagan over the welfare fraud scandal, and that has cost Democrats dearly.
30:20
SPEAKER_02: If Walls were still in the race for a third term, I think he'd be losing to Lisa Damuth rather than Klobuchar, who's ahead by seven or eight points.
30:31
SPEAKER_02: But then Flanagan is Democrats' Senate nominee.
30:35
SPEAKER_02: If Democrats had nominated Angie Craig, this would not be competitive.
30:40
SPEAKER_02: But Flanagan is so easily attached to this scandal as Walls' lieutenant governor that Michelle Tefoya, who uh vote most voters still remember as an NFL sideline reporter more than a politician, she has she's been able to to keep keep close in the polls.
31:01
SPEAKER_02: And I I don't think it'll be enough because Trump's approval rating in Minnesota is in the low 30s, but she's on air calling herself a pro-choice Republican.
31:10
SPEAKER_02: And I think she'll she'll do better in the suburbs than than other Republicans on the ballot.
31:16
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
31:17
SPEAKER_01: In in Kansas, again, I think I recall you saying that Roger Marshall will pull it out, but it's still very close against who is it, Nate Hamilton?
31:27
SPEAKER_02: Adam Hamilton, a distant relative of Alexander Hamilton.
31:31
SPEAKER_02: And I watched this debate last night between Senator Marshall and and Hamilton, and uh I don't think there was a clear winner of the debate.
31:43
SPEAKER_02: Now, the the fact that Kansas is close and in our toss-up column tells you everything you need to know about 2026.
31:54
SPEAKER_02: I mean, this is but this is not Bob Dole's Kansas anymore.
31:57
SPEAKER_02: This is now a more white-collar state.
32:00
SPEAKER_02: And Democrats hit on Marshall between his second home in Florida and kind of framing him as a predatory debt collector for suing new moms for medical debts uh when he was a practicing OBGYN for as low as 50 or 100 bucks.
32:16
SPEAKER_02: They've been very effective.
32:17
SPEAKER_02: They've tied up the race.
32:19
SPEAKER_02: There, I've seen several surveys showing Hamilton's slightly ahead.
32:23
SPEAKER_02: But now Republicans have this hit on Hamilton that he was slow to investigate and report a a child molester at one of the camps that his church uh ran in 2005.
32:41
SPEAKER_02: And and this offender was later put in in jail, but not but but not before he was invited back to camp.
32:51
SPEAKER_02: That hit uh could somewhat neutralize Democrats' attacks on Marshall.
32:56
SPEAKER_02: I think it'll be just enough to keep the seat away from from Democrats, but it's very tight there.
33:02
SPEAKER_01: Did Trump's visit earlier this week announcing the$8 billion harvest fuel relief program help?
33:10
SPEAKER_02: Well, it's better than than nothing.
33:13
SPEAKER_02: And I think it has uh it has the potential to keep a few wavering rural voters in the Republican column.
33:22
SPEAKER_02: I I I suspect it would be just enough to keep Kansas and Nebraska away from from electing Democrats to to the Senate, but uh I I still think Republicans have a big rural turnout problem writ large because we're not seeing immediate relief on the diesel front.
33:44
SPEAKER_01: No, on the bright side.
33:46
SPEAKER_01: South Carolina, Graham.
33:48
SPEAKER_01: You know, close again.
33:50
SPEAKER_02: Well, Darlene Graham made a huge mess of a debate question last month when she said national security is not my thing, when she was asked a question about Taiwan.
34:04
SPEAKER_02: And in a past era, that would have cost a candidate 10 points.
34:08
SPEAKER_02: In today's polarized era, I think it cost a candidate maybe three or four points.
34:15
SPEAKER_02: And what has made this race closer is over the last few weeks, Annie Andrews, the Democrat and pediatrician, she had the airwaves to herself because she had outraised Graham about 9 million to 1.5 million in the last fundraising quarter.
34:33
SPEAKER_02: And so that closed the gap.
34:36
SPEAKER_02: And now Republicans have gone in with 5 million to save Darling Graham.
34:42
SPEAKER_02: Look, I'd I'd give Democrats a 5% chance in this race.
34:46
SPEAKER_02: This is still a racially polarized state that Trump carried by 18 last time.
34:52
SPEAKER_02: So I'm not big on Andrews's chances, but the fact Republicans have to spend here is somewhat embarrassing for them.
34:58
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
34:59
SPEAKER_01: And you you've already mentioned Trump's low approval numbers.
35:03
SPEAKER_01: They're they're really impacting then.
35:06
SPEAKER_02: Oh well, when your party's president is at 36, 37 percent approval, that uh leads a lot of of Republican congressional candidates to to kind of cut him loose and come out and and say, I'm not with this guy.
35:26
SPEAKER_02: We've already seen John Senunu in New Hampshire try this, but we're seeing other Republican congressional candidates try and differentiate themselves.
35:36
SPEAKER_02: And in some cases it could work, but I think in most cases it won't.
35:40
SPEAKER_01: And you're are you seeing the negative reaction from farmers regarding Trump and the Republican policies then?
35:47
SPEAKER_02: Well, yeah, and I and look, I don't think it's pushing them into Democrats' arms because these voters are voting, or you know, today's Democratic Party is culturally incompatible with a lot of these voters, but it it's driving many of these voters to the couch, and that's one vote out of the the you know Trump Republican column uh and could allow Democrats' math to to work in some of these places.
36:15
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
36:16
SPEAKER_01: Just three more on election night.
36:18
SPEAKER_01: What things should we watch for regarding early signals on how the elections are gonna turn out?
36:25
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so I've got a good canera in the coal mine for you.
36:28
SPEAKER_02: I didn't think we'd be talking about Kentucky's sixth district.
36:31
SPEAKER_02: The polls closed there at 6:30 p.m.
36:33
SPEAKER_02: So we're gonna get some results early on.
36:35
SPEAKER_02: This is the open seat of Republican Andy Barr, who's gonna succeed Mitch McConnell in the Senate, Lexington, Kentucky.
36:43
SPEAKER_02: And keep in mind there's a decent bourbon export economy here, but you've also got a Democrat named Zach Dembo, who has been helped a lot by Andy Bashir, the governor, and then Ralph Alvarado, the Republican nominee is the state senator who is Matt Bevan's running mate in 2019.
37:05
SPEAKER_02: Uh Bevan is the unpopular former governor, and so this race is you know has closed to basically a tie in a Trump plus 16 district.
37:20
SPEAKER_02: If Democrats win this one, I think they're winning more than 20 seats in the House, maybe more like 25 or 30.
37:26
SPEAKER_01: So the sixth district in Kentucky is the one to watch.
37:30
SPEAKER_02: And then at 7 p.m.
37:32
SPEAKER_02: when the polls close in Virginia and Florida, I've got some bellwethers there too.
37:38
SPEAKER_02: In Virginia, I expect Democrats to flip the second district, which is Virginia Beach, Jen Kiggins.
37:45
SPEAKER_02: If they don't, and Kiggins wins, that would be an extraordinarily good sign for Republicans.
37:50
SPEAKER_02: The bubble race is the first district, Rob Whitman in the Richmond suburbs.
37:55
SPEAKER_02: And if he goes down, then Democrats are on track to win maybe more than 15 seats.
38:01
SPEAKER_02: The tsunami district's the fifth district in Southside, Virginia, and Charlottesville, if Republican John McGuire loses to Democrat Tom Periello, then that would be a huge, huge wave.
38:12
SPEAKER_02: And then in Florida, I expect Democrats to win the 25th district, Jared Moskowitz, maybe the 14th district, Kathy Castor.
38:22
SPEAKER_02: But then if we see Democrats winning the 13th district in St.
38:27
SPEAKER_02: Pete or the 27th district in Miami, then it would be a huge wave.
38:32
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
38:33
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, the governor races.
38:35
SPEAKER_01: I think now we're 26 and 24, where the Republicans have 26, Democrats 24.
38:40
SPEAKER_01: I think I'm right there.
38:41
SPEAKER_01: At the end of the night, you know, do you see that flipping?
38:46
SPEAKER_02: Yes, I think it very well could.
38:48
SPEAKER_02: And this is the first time Democrats have had a chance to win the majority of governorships since 2010.
38:56
SPEAKER_02: And Republicans will flip Kansas, I believe.
38:58
SPEAKER_02: And they have a chance in Wisconsin, although I think Democrats keep that.
39:02
SPEAKER_02: Democrats' best opportunities to win governors race governorships are Alaska, Iowa, which we mentioned, and then Ohio, where Ramaswamy has kind of lit himself on fire in the last uh week.
39:16
SPEAKER_02: And then after that, Georgia, perhaps Nevada, less likely Texas and Florida.
39:26
SPEAKER_02: So these governors' races are are going to be good barometers of voters' attitudes on AI and data centers because that's more of a more of a state-level issue.
39:38
SPEAKER_02: And Gina Hinahosa has tried to leverage that issue to deny Greg Abbott a fourth term in Texas.
39:45
SPEAKER_02: I I still think Abbott wins, but but you know, it would be an earthquake if Democrats won the governorship in Texas.
39:53
SPEAKER_01: Yes, it would be.
39:54
SPEAKER_01: You know, what if El Sayed wins Michigan, what does that mean for AOC?
40:01
SPEAKER_02: Well, she would have uh kind of company in terms of of the uh the spotlight on the left.
40:09
SPEAKER_02: Keep in mind Bernie Sanders is gonna be 87 uh next year, and he's probably exiting the the presidential considerations, and El Sayed has a very healthy ego, and he's gonna be a prominent voice on the left in a lot of policy discussions.
40:30
SPEAKER_01: How about AOC?
40:31
SPEAKER_02: Well, AOC is the only person who could instantly inherit Bernie Sanders' movement, but she's sending signals, including wearing a Bills hoodie the other day, that she's gonna run for Chuck Schumer's Senate seat, not for president.
40:47
SPEAKER_02: I I had the opportunity to meet with uh AOC uh briefly earlier this year, and she gave me the impression that she doesn't quite think she's ready to run for the White House, in which case there would really be a void on the left of the Democratic Party.
41:04
SPEAKER_01: Yes, there would be.
41:58
SPEAKER_02: And I I think there's gonna be some shakeup on the Republican side.
42:04
SPEAKER_02: I you know, if Trump endorses Vance at any point in the next year, I don't think there will be a meaningful Republican primary, but I I tend to think that uh that that Rubio has a has at just as good a chance right now.
42:24
SPEAKER_02: And then on the Democratic side, it's gonna go to whoever can garner a passionate and devoted following among even 20% of the primary electorate.
42:34
SPEAKER_02: I can't see Gavin Newsom doing that, I could see AOC doing that, but I don't think she's gonna run.
42:40
SPEAKER_02: And John Osoff is really having quite a moment with the Democratic base, yeah.
42:45
SPEAKER_02: So he he should be taken seriously.
42:49
SPEAKER_02: And then given that Gretchen Whitmer's taking herself out of contention, and AOC may not run, Kamala Harris may not run, my question is who would who would be a strong female candidate for uh the Democrats?
43:04
SPEAKER_02: And a dark horse pick would be uh Senator Alyssa Slotkin of Michigan, who's making the rounds.
43:10
SPEAKER_01: How about the Illinois governor?
43:13
SPEAKER_01: Oh boy.
43:14
SPEAKER_02: Uh well if JB Pritzker is in a remotely close race, then everything I know about politics would be turned upside down.
43:23
SPEAKER_02: But but yeah, uh look, Illinois and California are not great springboards for for the White House these days because they're shedding voters, they're shedding uh population.
43:37
SPEAKER_02: How do Pritzker and Newsom leverage that into an argument that they should be the president?
43:43
SPEAKER_01: It's difficult, it it is difficult.
43:46
SPEAKER_01: Well, you promised me this time, and you gave it to me, and I appreciate it.
43:51
SPEAKER_01: And so, what's your again initially singling always subject to change is a takeover by the Democrats of both the House, easier prediction, uh squeezy tight, but still uh a Democratic takeover of the Senate.
44:06
SPEAKER_01: And it looks like the Democrats will have.
44:09
SPEAKER_01: More governor races than the Republicans when we uh you know see the final votes.
44:15
SPEAKER_01: And it it could uh you've given us the the areas in in uh Kentucky, uh Virginia, and Florida to watch out for early in the night to see if this uh blue wave is gonna even be higher wave, right?
44:30
SPEAKER_02: Right, right.
44:31
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
44:32
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
44:33
SPEAKER_01: David, thank you, thank you very much for your time.
44:35
SPEAKER_01: I know you're you're busy.
44:37
SPEAKER_01: You're busy, busy, busy.
44:38
SPEAKER_01: Thanks a lot.
44:39
SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
44:39
SPEAKER_02: Oh, well, you know, I I would not miss it.
44:42
SPEAKER_02: And and and I feel like whenever I get to come on Ag Bull Media and We Smeyer's perspectives, I've really hit the big time.
44:52
SPEAKER_00: You have David.
44:53
SPEAKER_00: I do have to ask you a couple questions just because um Jim wants me to mess with you a little bit.
44:58
SPEAKER_00: But he said there is nobody in the House or the Senate that you don't know their name or their district or anything.
45:05
SPEAKER_01: But he wants the house editor, I know.
45:07
SPEAKER_01: I don't know whether he knows now.
45:09
SPEAKER_01: How where do you keep all this information?
45:12
SPEAKER_00: Well, you know, some people hard drive or something in your head, or what's going on?
45:17
SPEAKER_02: Some people are obsessed with baseball and know all the rosters of all the major league teams, true, you know, and and I just I approach politics the same way.
45:27
SPEAKER_02: So uh whenever I listen to to this podcast, I I wonder how do you keep all the commodities straight and the prices?
45:37
SPEAKER_01: I just yeah, well, Tommy, you heard there's passion, yeah, right?
45:42
SPEAKER_00: He's got passion, and that's that's how you expect expensive education.
45:46
SPEAKER_00: My father, I didn't go to college, David, but my dad said it would have been cheaper to send me to Harvard, so we learned the old-fashioned way.
45:53
SPEAKER_00: But I'm looking at your website, the Cook Political Report.
45:55
SPEAKER_00: You have a free part there, you have a light paid$35,350,$750.
46:01
SPEAKER_00: You're just putting out a ton of information, aren't you guys?
46:05
SPEAKER_02: Well, we try, we try, but but not nearly as much information as as the Wiesmeier report, uh, because I get it four times a day.
46:15
SPEAKER_02: I mean, we only send out our report twice a week, maybe two or three times a week.
46:19
SPEAKER_02: But Jim's report, man, when does the guy sleep?
46:24
SPEAKER_02: And and and I keep keep going to AI to do a summary of the Wiesmeyer report, but it's so comprehensive that uh it you know AI just spits out unintelligible.
46:39
SPEAKER_00: My wife, my wife thinks I'm cheating on her because my phone is dinging at all types of the hours, and I'm looking at it.
46:45
SPEAKER_00: She's like, who would text you this late?
46:47
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, Jim, is he not asleep?
46:49
SPEAKER_00: Hey yeah, one last thing, David, in all seriousness.
46:52
SPEAKER_00: What's what's a day in the life like with David Wasserman?
46:55
SPEAKER_00: You get up, what do you do?
46:58
SPEAKER_02: Well, it depends what city I wake up in, but uh he travels a lot.
47:02
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I you know these days, just like Jim, I'm on the speaking circuit a good bit.
47:08
SPEAKER_02: And I I had a just to give you an idea, the past week, I was in Orlando at a life insurance convention on Friday, but I was able to bring my two kids down to Orlando and we went to Disney World on Saturday, which was just a magical experience.
47:24
SPEAKER_02: And then I flew them back to Chicago, and then I flew back to Orlando to do a different conference for the milk producers, and then to DC uh for a briefing that we put on for our subscribers, and then to Chicago for a talk today, Omaha tonight, Philadelphia tomorrow.
47:41
SPEAKER_02: So I'll I'll I'll sleep when I'm dead, but at least I'll go on vacation in December.
47:49
SPEAKER_00: Excellent.
47:50
SPEAKER_01: I can't and David, you have a book coming out.
47:52
SPEAKER_01: Oh boy, here we go.
47:54
SPEAKER_01: When is it coming out?
47:55
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, not uh full screen next year.
47:58
SPEAKER_01: This what in the summer?
48:00
SPEAKER_02: I don't uh well next year, but I I I I don't even have a uh fully ready title.
48:05
SPEAKER_02: So what is it?
48:06
SPEAKER_01: It's on redistricting, right?
48:07
SPEAKER_01: It's on redistricting, yeah.
48:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
48:10
SPEAKER_00: Jim spoiler alert with the book.
48:12
SPEAKER_00: Very good.
48:13
SPEAKER_00: David, I can't thank you enough.
48:14
SPEAKER_00: You guys ready to get out of here?
48:15
SPEAKER_00: And I want you to travel safe and uh thank you for everything you do.
48:19
SPEAKER_00: I am I'm just I'm just smiling because Jim, Jim was like giddy to have you on here.
48:27
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
48:28
SPEAKER_00: And it was hard.
48:29
SPEAKER_00: I didn't get to say anything, it was horrible.
48:32
SPEAKER_00: All right.
48:33
SPEAKER_01: Okay, Dave.
48:34
SPEAKER_01: Safe travels, safe travels.
48:36
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
48:36
SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
48:37
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, take care.