Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Oh Highmark | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football & NFL | 9/17/26

Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | Oh Highmark | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football & NFL | 9/17/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man but don't you go quiet don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure put the glass down.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Baby look at me now hold on.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Hold on, not tonight, not now. Hold on, hold on,
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: let me pull you out. That fella fights hard, but
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: he don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you, Toadstool Sports. Thursday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: September 17th. 1-1 on the show yesterday. Close win with
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: the Milwaukee Brewers. You know, the Brewers were up early.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: They blew the lead. They fell behind, actually, at one point.
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: And like I said, part of the handicap was the
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: bullpen edge that I thought they had, which they did.
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: They brought in their closer again. They wound up holding
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: the game, holding the lead in the last couple innings.
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: So we got the win with that one. Maybe a
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: little close for comfort there. And then I think the
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: other game was kind of BS. It was kind of
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: a BS loss. The over in Miami, Arizona. It was
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: looking really good early. We had five runs in the
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: first three innings or something. So I'm like, okay, yeah.
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: Because part of the handicap was These bullpen are both
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: completely used up after yesterday. So I was like, yeah,
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: we're definitely going to win this one. And then there
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: was a span of like four, four innings in the
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: middle of the game where there were no runs scored
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: or one run. Maybe I'm like, are you kidding me?
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: It was such a bullshit. And then all of a
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: sudden the game's four to two, it was four to
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: one in the third inning or something. And now it's
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: four to two in like the eighth inning. I'm like, what,
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: what the hell, what happened here? and a lot of
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: hits in that game too. Both teams had double-digit hits.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: So I think we got pretty unlucky there. There were
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: a lot of base runners stranded. The first inning kind
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: of set the tone for that because the Diamondbacks left
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: the bases loaded in the first inning and didn't score
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: any runs. So that was like, oh, yeah, we're off
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: to a great start here. Yeah, I think we should
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: have won that one. You know, it is what it is,
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: I guess. And the bullpens, I don't know what was
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: going on with that. I'm pretty sure Miami brought in
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: Alcantara in the eighth or ninth inning. I'm like, what
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: is happening here? Because of the excessive bullpen usage. All right,
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: let's just put one of our better starters in late
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: in the game. Yeah, okay. I don't even know who
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: won the game. I don't even know. Was Miami. Miami
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: hung on to the win in that one. That's right,
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: because they were winning the majority of the game. All right, whatever.
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: We'll move on to today. Shorter baseball board today because
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: it is Thursday. I do have two plays. They're both
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: in baseball. They're both slight underdogs that I think have
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: a decent chance to win. So that is what I'm
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: going to go with. First game up, we have Milwaukee-Pittsburgh
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: finishing their series here. Milwaukee is on the verge of
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: a sweep, I believe. Is that right? I think so. Um, yes. Uh,
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: so Milwaukee, I mean, it's possible they overlook Pittsburgh in
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: the final game of the series here. Pittsburgh probably shows up, uh,
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: because even though Pittsburgh has pretty much nothing left to
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: play for, they'll show up for a game like this
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: against a division opponent. You would think of them. Milwaukee
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: doesn't have a whole lot to play for either. And
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: in fact, prior to last night's game, after the game
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: before that, they actually clinched the division. So, um, Last night,
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: you know, it was a possible letdown, but I was like,
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: I don't know about that because Milwaukee is still trying
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: to battle the Dodgers for the number one seed, whatever. So,
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: and they seem to be just continually putting in effort.
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: So I just didn't really think it was going to
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: be a letdown in that game yesterday, which I should
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: have mentioned it on the show, but I did not.
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee does have Baltimore next, which I don't really think
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: that's much of a look ahead for Milwaukee here. So
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: both teams probably show up here would be my guess.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: As far as the bullpens, Milwaukee used four guys out
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen yesterday. Pittsburgh, I think, used three. Yeah,
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee is the better bullpen, though. They're number nine arranged
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: by whip, but they're better than that, in my opinion.
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is number 19. Hitting-wise, both teams have been good
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: on the season. Milwaukee, number four. Pittsburgh, number seven. Pittsburgh
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: not as good recently, though. I don't know where else.
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: I felt like I was going to say something else
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: in my head, and I don't remember what it was.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's going with Kyle Harrison in this game. Good season
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: for him, but he's really, really fallen off a cliff recently.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: And maybe it's just because he's young and he hasn't
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: thrown this. I don't think he's thrown this many innings before.
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong about that. No, he did once way
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: back in– well, not way back. In 2024, he did.
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what's going on with him recently.
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: He's got a 3.98 ERA. 1.31 whip, not really that good, though.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: But he's been awful on the road recently. 6.2 road
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: ERA on the season. Look at what he's done recently.
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: He's had some really horrific road starts in here against
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: the Cubs, the Padres. Not really good against St. Louis, Arizona.
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, starting in July, he's been pretty bad overall.
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: Couple of good starts in here, but mostly bad. And
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: he had two outings against the Reds recently. They were
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: both off on his last outing. He gave up four hits.
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: All of those base runners scored and he got nobody out.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: in his last outing. So yeah, things are not going
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: well for him right now. He's in terrible form right now.
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: He's not good on the road. I would not trust
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: him in this game, even though he typically actually dominates Pittsburgh.
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: They have 37 at-bats against him, 21 strikeouts, two walks,
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: 135 average, 369 OPS. So Harrison does typically just shred
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: these guys, but I can't trust him with the form
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: that he's in. He's been awful over the last month plus,
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: so I can't do that. And then Pittsburgh looks like
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: they're going with a bullpen game. They have Wilbur Dottel
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: listed as their starter here. He does not have good numbers.
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: He's probably going to go at most two innings here.
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: I would guess that's typically what you get out of him.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: He has bad numbers against the Brewers as well. So
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: whatever Pittsburgh is doing here, I don't think that's going
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: to go well either. So I think this game is
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: probably the best way to play this game is to
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: play the over. The game is the numbers eight and
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: a half or nine here, mostly nine across the board,
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: I guess. But you'd be right on that key number nine,
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: I guess, which is not the worst thing. Fifty percent
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 95 percent of the cash on the over.
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: So the money seems to agree with that. Milwaukee is
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: a favorite. I mean, they pretty much have to be.
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: They're minus 140 or so, 83% of tickets on them,
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: 91% of the cash on them. I mean, in theory,
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee should win because Harrison is better than a Pittsburgh
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: bullpen game, but the way he's pitched recently, I wouldn't
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: be able to do it, even though he typically destroys Pittsburgh,
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: as you saw those numbers. But yeah, I think the
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: best way to get a win in this game is
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: to play the over. That would be my opinion there.
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: But Harrison could pitch well, and that's kind of my
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: concern with it. All right, Dodger. You could take Milwaukee
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: over their team total. I guess it's another option there
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: if you wanted to. You'll need them to score maybe
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: up to six runs in that one, though, which is
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: a little bit of an ask, although they will at
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: least bat in the ninth inning, guaranteed, because they're the
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: road team. Dodgers at Cincinnati. Cincinnati actually won the game yesterday.
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: I don't know how, but they seem to have no
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: matchup edge in that game at all, but they won
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: the game. So the Dodgers, I believe they lost a
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: win streak with that. Let me see. No, it was
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: only a two-game win streak. That's right. They lost their
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: long win streak with the Marlins in the last series.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: So Dodgers are not coming off losing a big win
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: series or anything like that. This game, though, this does
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: not look like a good pitching matchup here either, though.
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers, they're going to be playing San Francisco next.
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, that is still a rivalry, even though San
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Francisco's had a bad season. It's not like the Dodgers
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: are going to really be paying that much attention to
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati necessarily. I don't like either of these bullpens that much.
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati's especially not. Cincinnati used five guys out of the
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: bullpen yesterday. Dodgers used five as well. I would not
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: really want to trust either bullpen, really. Dodgers have been okay.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: They're number 14. Cincinnati's pretty bad bullpen from them, number 25. Dodgers,
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: very good offense. Of course, we all know that. They're
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: number two, although they've had some injuries. I think Otani
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: has been injured the last few days, and Freeman missed
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: one game, but I think he is back, if I'm
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: not mistaken. But, yeah, Otani, I think, remains out, although
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers still have a very potent lineup anyway because
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: their team is just stacked. The Reds' offense has been pathetic.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: They're number 25– or, no, excuse me, that was the bullpen.
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: They're somewhere around there, though. They're number 24 on offense,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: but I think they've been pretty bad at home. So,
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: Dodgers have the edge there. Dodgers are going with Justin Robleski,
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: and you might think that he's the better starter here
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: because he has had a pretty good season– 3.78 ERA, 1.16 whip.
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: He's worse on the road, even though his ERA is
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: a little bit better. His opponent batting average is pretty
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: bad on the road at 270, so I don't think
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: he's that trustworthy on the road. And he's been bad
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: since like late July. He hasn't really pitched that much
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: since then. But he basically just fell off at the
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: end of July and then into August. He had a
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: terrible month of August. And he's continued to pitch poorly
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: in the month of September when he has pitched. So
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: he's completely out of form. I mean, the advanced analytics
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: guys don't like him. He was definitely a regression candidate.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is okay. He doesn't really walk that
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: many guys. And he also doesn't strike that many guys out.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: He's got a 3.6 strikeout walk ratio, though, because his
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: walk rate is so low. But 7.5 Ks per nine.
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really fool hitters. Robleski has also been really
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: bad against Cincinnati, although they only have eight at-bats against him.
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: Six of their hitters, excuse me, have faced him. But
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: they have a 6.25 average and 16.67 OPS against him.
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: 1-1 strikeout walk ratio against him. I would not trust
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: Robleski in this one. Brady Singer is getting the start
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: for the Reds. He has not had a good season
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: really at all. 5.38 ERA, 1.51 whip. He's been better
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: at home, 4.5 home ERA, so he is at home here,
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: but he's still not pitching well. His last two home
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: starts have been awful against San Diego and then against Milwaukee.
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Milwaukee one, I guess, is a little
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: bit more acceptable than the other one. But he is
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: not pitching well. His team has lost six of his
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: last seven outings. He's got a 14 ERA in the
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: month of September with more walks than strikeouts, at least
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: five walks in each start. Both against Milwaukee, though. 11 walks,
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: eight strikeouts. Yeah, at least five walks in each start.
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: More hits than innings pitched. Things are going very, very
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: badly for him right now. He's got a high hit
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: rate on the season, a high walk rate on the season.
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate's not good either. 2.2 strikeout walk ratio,
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: not good. 7.5 strikeouts per nine, that's not good. He is, however,
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: very good against the Dodgers somehow. I don't know how.
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: They have 39 at-bats against them, a 128 average, 458 OPS,
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: 8-5 strikeout walk ratio, so the ratio's bad, but all
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: these other numbers are good. Only two extra base hits
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: in here, a double from Betts and a home run
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: from Freeman, and Otani is not listed in this list.
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: this table here because he's out. So ESPN does update that.
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: I think this game's another over, man. I mean, I
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: think that's the way I would play it. I don't
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: trust either of these pitchers really at all. 87% of
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: the tickets on the under, 60% of the cash on
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: the over. It's a high total, man. I know the
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: Reds have a hitter-friendly ballpark, but their offense has been
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: pretty bad. You don't see a 10 that often in
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: this ballpark. But I mean, even in this ballpark, you don't,
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: I should say. But yeah, the number's at 10. So
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: the odds makers are kind of telling you this is
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: going to be a slugfest most likely in this game.
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: I tend to agree. I think the way to play
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: this game is to play the over. Uh, the Dodgers
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: are also really public. 88% of tickets, 87% of the
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: cash on them. They're like minus one 60 something on
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: the money line. I don't think you do. In fact,
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: I lean Cincinnati in this game actually. Um, Robleski I
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: mean he has really bad matchup numbers I know it's
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: a small sample size but I think he's pretty overrated
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: if you just look at what his numbers are you'd
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: think he'd be the way better pitcher here but he's
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: not really Singer is at least somewhat okay at home
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: sometimes and he has good matchup numbers somehow so the
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: Reds may find a way to somehow get this done
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: I think if you play the Reds you should do
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: it in the first five though I don't think you
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: back their bullpen at all so I think Reds plus
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: the half run on the run line in the first
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: five makes some sense but I would much much prefer
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: the over both of these first two games like the
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: over is the preferable way to play both of those
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: uh Harrison by the way because I forgot to go
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: into it uh back to Milwaukee quickly his overall numbers
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: his hit rate is actually too high believe it or
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: not his walk rate's not too bad his strikeout rate
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: is very good though He's got a 4.1 strikeout walk ratio,
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: so that's really good. And 10.9 strikeout per nine. So
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: Harrison does have some talent, but he's been very, very
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: hittable recently. So that's what's going on with him. A
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: is at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay on the verge of
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: a sweep here. As Tampa Bay gained a game on
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox and the Yankees yesterday as both of
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: those teams lost and Tampa won again. They've only won
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: each game in the series by one run. They're on
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: a nice win streak here, five games in a row.
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: But will they overlook the A's here? Because Tampa has
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: a pretty big series coming up next against Boston. The
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are coming to town. So it's possible Tampa
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: does overlook the A's in this last game of the
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: series here. Tampa is going to be a huge favorite here, though.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: They have the pitching edge in this game. Tampa's a
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: very good home team. I think they have the best
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: home record in baseball. So typically you do not really
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: want to fade them when they're at home. Tampa used
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: three relief pitchers yesterday. They obviously have the better bullpen.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: The A's horrible bullpen. They used four guys out of
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: the bullpen yesterday. Tampa Bay is ranked number four in bullpen. However,
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: I still don't think they're that good because their ERA
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: is a bit too high. But the A's bullpen, even
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: though they're ranked 28th, they're still the worst bullpen. They're awful.
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay, sixth offensively. The A's number 14 tied with Minnesota. Minnesota.
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: So I think Tampa probably does have the better offense
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: as well at this point. The A's, they're just really,
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: really not a good team, man. Jeffrey Springs on the
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: mound for the A's. He's not as bad as his
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: numbers make him look because his numbers do get skewed
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: a little bit from pitching in that horrible A's stadium.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: He's got a 5.93 ERA, 1.45 whip. He was definitely
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: better than this last year. And I actually backed him
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: in his last game against the Mariners. And that was
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: at home, I'm pretty sure. And we did get that
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: win with the A's first five in that one. springs
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: has been a bit better on the road 4.76 road
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: era with a much better opponent batting average of 236
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: on the road so he's obviously better on the road
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: he pitched pretty well in his last two starts both
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: against a very pathetic seattle offense though one of them
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: at home though one of them on the road i
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: think um i believe it was the home start where
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: he got the win from him in the first five
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: but i could be wrong about that he had an
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: excellent start He had an excellent start on the road,
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: excuse me, but yeah, I believe it was his most
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: recent start, the home one, where we picked up the
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: first five winner on that one. He wasn't as good
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: in that one, but he was still fairly good in
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: that one, except he didn't strike anybody out. One strike
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: out there. Springs does have a high hit rate, though,
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: and a high walk rate, and a low strikeout rate,
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: and he allows a lot of home runs, so none
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: of that is good, although, again, numbers are being skewed
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: by pitching in that horrible stadium where he's not pitching today. 1.9
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is pretty bad, though. 7 strikeout per 9,
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: not really that good either. Springs is also not good
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: against Tampa in 25 at-bats. It's not a big sample here.
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: 7 of their hitters have faced him. 320 average, 873 OPS,
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: 6 to 5 strikeout walk ratio. So I still don't
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: really trust Springs, even though he is better on the road.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: Doesn't look like a great matchup for him. And he
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: has to go up against Drew Rasmussen, who is Tampa's
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: best pitcher, and he's having a very good season, his
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: best of his career, actually. At the age of 31,
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: he's in the Cy Young conversation here, although Schlittler is
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: going to win it unless something insane happens. But Rasmussen, 2.81 ERA,.
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: 92 whip. He's been very, very good. He's actually slightly
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: worse at home, a 3.05 home ERA, still really good.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: He's in very good form recently. Tampa's won every single
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: one of the starts since the all-star break. And he's
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: of those outings. Is that good? I don't know. Yeah,
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: I would say that's good. Yeah, he's continuing to pitch well.
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: Doesn't really show any signs of slowing down here, at
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: least in his recent starts here. He's got a low
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: hit rate, really low walk rate, a fairly high strikeout
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: rate as well. All those numbers are good. 5.9 strikeout
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is very good. Nine strikeouts per nine, pretty
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: good as well. His numbers against the A's are actually
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: not as good as you might think. 41 at bats,
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: 268 average, 839 OPS, 6-2 strikeout walk ratio. So that's
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: not that good. So I guess possible that he doesn't
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: do as well here. He did actually pitch at the
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: A's stadium in the middle of that run that he's had.
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: That was in the middle of August, and he was
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: not bad in that start. So, you know, but even
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: including that start, though, his numbers overall against this A's
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: lineup are not really that good. I think maybe you
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: could play the over in this game too. The number
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: does not really suggest that you should, though. The total
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: is 7.5, so the oddsmakers think this is going to
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: be a low-scoring game. 69% of tickets, 60% of the
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: cash on the over. So the money's coming in against
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: the over here. I don't know, though, man. The argument
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: for the under would be, well, Rasmussen's really good and
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: Springs is better on the road. That would be your
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: argument for the under. I think if you play the under,
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: you have to do it first five, though, because the
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: A's bullpen could just blow you up completely. i think
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: the over is the better way to look just because
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: these these matchups neither pitcher has good matchup numbers and
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: that might be enough to just get this thing to
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: you know just nudge it over the total you know
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: what i mean Tampa's also a very public side. I
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: feel like I like the over in every game. Minus 270-something,
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: minus 280 on Tampa Bay. I mean, yeah, they should win. Theoretically,
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: they got the better pitcher, they're the better team, but
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: you never know, man. Plus, you know, the motivation favors
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: the A's at least sort of in trying to avoid
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: the sweep, although Tampa does need to keep winning to
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: maintain their lead in the AL East. I don't know
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: if I explicitly pointed out. The thing I was forgetting
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: to mention in Milwaukee-Pittsburgh one more time is that Pittsburgh
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: does at least have the motivation to avoid the sweep,
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: I should say. The home teams trying to avoid the
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: sweep are usually a little bit better than the road teams, although,
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: of course, we all know that. There's a slight home
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: advantage here, although it's not much in baseball, but still,
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: it's a little bit of something. But, yes, Tampa's very public,
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: 93% of tickets, 88% of the cash on them. I
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: would not try to play Tampa in this game. Moneyline, Parlay, whatever.
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: I don't think I would want to do it, man.
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: And I told you that Parlay was going to go
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: down yesterday, like the big favorites, and LA was the
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: team that lost. I told you. One of those teams
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: was going to lose. I thought Philly would win and
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: bounce back, which they did. But yeah, LA was the
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: team that crushed all the... the Moneyline parlays yesterday. Tampa
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: was able to get their win, but yeah, it was
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: LA that pretty much took all those parlays down from
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: the public Moneyline parlays. It's always one team that takes
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: it down, man.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: San Diego and Colorado is on ESPN Unlimited. This is
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: the last afternoon game. San Diego won yesterday. They won
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: two of the three games. I thought San Diego might
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: be in a bad spot yesterday if they lost that
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: long win streak. And Colorado had ended a losing streak.
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: So usually when both teams end momentum like that, that
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: new momentum usually continues. But that did not happen yesterday.
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: San Diego got the win rather easily yesterday. Will they
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: do it again today? I don't know. I mean, they
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: should win because, of course, San Diego still Trying to
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: get that last wild card and stay ahead of Arizona. Although,
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: of course, it helps that San Diego won yesterday and
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: Arizona didn't. So I think San Diego's at least a
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: couple games up on them right now. Maybe San Diego
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: will take their foot off the gas slightly here. I
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: don't know. They need to keep winning, though. Lucky for them,
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: Arizona has to play the Yankees next. So that's not
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: going to be easy for Arizona. San Diego gets to
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: host Miami, which is at least not as bad as
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: what Arizona has to do here. So San Diego's looking
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: all right for now. Will they be able to get
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: this game against Colorado, though? I don't know. I mean,
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: this is not a game I want to get involved in.
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: Colorado's bullpen is bad. They used three guys yesterday. San
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: Diego's bullpen is good. They used two guys yesterday. San Diego,
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: number six in bullpen. Yeah, again, I think that's close
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: to what they really are. Colorado, number 27. They're obviously weak.
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: That's also close to accurate. Colorado's number five in offense.
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: San Diego is number 21, tied with Baltimore and Philly.
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: San Diego, again, at least they've been better since the
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: All-Star break. And, of course, they're getting some runs in
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: this series because it is Coors Field. Michael King will
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: be getting the start for San Diego. He's been pretty good. 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WIP.
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: He's a little bit worse on the road, 3.34 road ERA.
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: He's in good form, though. He had three shutout appearances
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: in a row before he gave up three runs last
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: time out against San Francisco, but that was still not
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: even bad. It was a quality start. He went seven innings.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: He's had quality starts going all the way back to
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: his first start in August. Since then, he's had quality starts.
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: every start since then. So, yeah, he is pitching well here.
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate. His walk rate is okay.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is not really that good, though, so
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: advanced analytics guys will have some problems with that. He's
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: got a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio, which is not really
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: that good. 7.6 strikeout per nine, also not really that good.
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: Those numbers are pretty much the worst that he's had
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: in his career, so his walk rate's gotten a bit
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: worse just over the course of the season, I mean.
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: He hasn't had a great walk rate, and his strikeout
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: rate's been lower than what it usually is. King typically
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: is good against Colorado, though. They have 51 at-bats against him,
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: 157 average, 444 OPS, 13-2 strikeout walk ratio. So King
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: usually does do well against Colorado. King is pretty home-run conducive, though,
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: for some reason. He's not really a fly ball pitcher.
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: To much of an extent, he gets a lot of
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: ground ball out, so you'd think he would be a
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: good style for pitching in this stadium. But for whatever reason,
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: he's allowed a pretty good amount of home runs this year, 20,
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: so that's slightly concerning. But generally, it looks like he
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: should give you another good start here, because he's in
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: good form and.
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: Even though the advanced analytics guys don't like that he
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: doesn't strike a lot of guys out, he does do
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: well against Colorado typically. Colorado's going with Tanner Gordon. He's
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: not very good. 5.55 ERA, 1.48 whip. He's really not
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: good at home. 7.47 home ERA. He's been awful in
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: both starts this month. Colorado's lost almost every one of
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: his starts recently. They've lost all but one of them
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: since mid-July. They're not doing well when he's on the mound.
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: He's not pitching well right now. Yeah, I mean, he's
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: just getting hit really hard for the most part. He's
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: giving up a lot of hits. He's pretty fly ball heavy,
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: so he is pretty home run conducive. So he's not
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: a good match for the stadium. He does have a
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: good strikeout walk ratio. He doesn't really walk guys. He
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: strikes an okay amount of guys out, but he's just
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: extremely hittable. Again, looks like he just throws a lot
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: of pitches right over the plate. 4.5 strikeout walk ratio
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: is good, but not when you're extremely hittable. 7.5 strikeout
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: per nine. Not really that good. His numbers against San
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: Diego are not that good either. 32 at-bats, 250 average,
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: 857 OPS, 13-2 strikeout walk ratio. The ratio's good. Everything
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: else is not good there. San Diego's got 88% of
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: the tickets here, so they're definitely going to be public.
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: 94% of the cash, though. Don't really love the price.
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: You've got to lay minus 180 to play San Diego here.
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: It looks like they should get the win. They've got
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: the better pitching. throughout this game, starter and bullpen, and
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: they have more motivation in that they're still trying to
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: maintain their wild card spot. Although Colorado is showing up
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: for these games. I mean, they've won one game in
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: the series at least, so they're putting in effort, obviously.
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: Colorado at least has the incentive to try, at least
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: because they get to try to play spoiler here, against
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: San Diego, so there is that. The money's also back
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: in the under in this game. I'm not sure I'd
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: really want to do that. I mean, I think San
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: Diego should win, and maybe they are the right way
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: to look in this game, but you'd have to make
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: like a minus one, maybe even a minus one and
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: a half run line out of this, and it's kind
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: of a difficult ask, even though I believe they've won
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: two of the three games. Both games they've won in
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: this series. I'm pretty sure they've won by margin. No,
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: they only won the first game by one, my mistake,
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: but they did win by six yesterday. I was thinking
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: of the Colorado win in the second game where we
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: had the over correct in that game. Um, yeah, not,
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: not much else to say about that one, but yeah,
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: I think San Diego might actually be the right side
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: in that one. It's just, uh, the price is, uh,
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: is difficult, uh, to really, uh, digest. I would say, um,
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: I was going to say swallow. I'm like, that doesn't
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: sound great. Um, Yeah, I mean, I think you could
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: put them in a Moneyline parlay with some other team.
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: I don't know, though, man. Like I said, I don't
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: think you want the Dodgers today. Maybe Tampa. I mean,
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, I was already kind of
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: against doing that, though. So I don't know. There's not
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: really a good partner for San Diego. Like San Diego,
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: out of these big Moneyline favorites, I think San Diego
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: is the one that sets up the best to get
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: the win, in my opinion. But I could be wrong.
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia at the Mets. This is going to be on Fox.
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: We have two Fox games. This is the start of
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: a new series. The other Fox game is Kansas City
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: and Houston. So I would imagine Philly and Mets, they're
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: going to get more of the eyes on them. This
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: will be a bigger game, even though it doesn't really
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: have playoff implications. Philadelphia, they're pretty much locked into a
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: wild card spot. It's just a matter of are they
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: going to host Chicago or is it going to be
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: the other way around? I think the Mets will show up, though,
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: because they're going to try to at least play tough
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: against a division opponent. The Houston-Kansas City game, I think
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: the motivation is pretty one-sided, though. The Mets might show
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: up extra motivated here because they did just get swept
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: by the Orioles at home. Mets played pretty competitively for
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: most of that series, though, so it's not like they're
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: packing it in yet. I don't think they are. I mean,
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: they played pretty competitively against the Yankees the series before that, too.
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: So I think the Mets are still showing up here. Philadelphia, yeah,
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're still trying to win as well. They're
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: trying to keep pace in the wild card race. They
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: technically could catch Atlanta too, although I don't think that's
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: going to happen. It's not really that realistic, but it's possible.
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia is coming off a winning series against the Nationals.
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: Or no, they split the series. Sorry, it was a
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: two-game series. That's weird. I was looking at, oh, they
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: won two out of the last three, but only the
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: last two games were against Washington. So Philly was able
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: to get the win yesterday. flip the script. Now they're
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: having to travel up to New York. Not much of
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: a travel spot there, but the Mets are staying at
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: home here, coming off a loss. The Mets might be
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: able to get this one here today, man. The Mets
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: used two relief pitchers yesterday. They have the better bullpen
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: over Philly. Philly also used two, but I prefer the
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: Mets' bullpen. The Mets are number seven in bullpen. Philly
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: number 18. Mets ERA is definitely better out of the bullpen.
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: Philly is the better offense. They're number 21, although they're
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: not as good on the road. They're tied with Baltimore
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: and San Diego. Mets 25th. They're not a good offense.
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: But Philly could struggle a bit offensively on the road.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: This could also maybe be an under. Aaron Nola is
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: pitching for Philly. He's completely turned his season around recently
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: after we know Nola used to be good. Then he
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: had injuries the last couple seasons. Tried to come back
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: from injury last year. Was bad most of the season
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: last year. Got pretty good at the end of the
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: season last year. Then this season he was really bad again.
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: He's got a 4.69 ERA, 1.37 whip. But that doesn't
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: tell the whole story because he's been a lot better
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: over the last couple months. He's also pretty good on
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: the road. 4.15 road ERA. I know that doesn't sound
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: that good, but he is better on the road. And
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: like I said, he's been way better. in the second
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: half of the season he's allowed three or fewer earned
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: runs in every start except one against the dodgers going
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: all the way back to the beginning of july yeah
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: that's pretty good uh so he's been pitching well for
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: a while now it's like it's almost like nobody's giving
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: him credit for it because his overall numbers are still
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: not that good his hit rate is still high he's
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: allowed a ton of home runs and that is a
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: problem One of the highest home run rates in all
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: of baseball. His walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: is pretty good. So he is still fooling hitters. He's
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: got a three strikeout walk ratio. That's not that bad. 9.2
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: strikeout per nine is pretty solid. So none of that
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: is bad. Nola against the Mets is actually not that
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: good though. 189 at bats. 249 average against. That's not
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: that high. But an 845 OPS is pretty high. The
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: home runs have hurt him, man. He's allowed 13 home
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: runs to them, although eight of them are from Soto
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: and Alvarez, so those two guys hit him pretty hard.
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: Soto and a pretty big amount of at-bats as well.
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: 49 strikeouts, 27 walks. That is a bad ratio as well,
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: but 19 of the walks are Soto. So he pitches
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: around Soto. Soto just has his number. Maybe Nola can
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: still pitch well here, though, but I think I would
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: prefer to have Nolan McClain. Nola versus Nolan. Aaron Nolan McClain.
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Nolan McClain is pitching for the Mets. He's had a
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: good season. 3.24 ERA, 1.18 whip. He's not as good
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: at home, though. 3.57 home ERA, which is still not bad, though.
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: He was a little bit iffy against the Yankees last
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: time out. They hit him pretty hard, but he was
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: pitching pretty well prior to that. In fact, he'd allowed
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: two or fewer runs in five starts in a row
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: prior to that. That Yankee game could be a little
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: bit of an outlier. I mean, it's not that easy
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: to go into New York or go into the Bronx
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: and have to face the Yankees. Still had five strikeouts,
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: one walk in that one, so command numbers were still
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: pretty good there. He's got a low hit rate. His
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: walk rate's okay. His strikeout rate is quite high, so
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: that's good. A 2.8 strikeout walk ratio is not exactly
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: that good, so the walk rate is kind of high.
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: But 9.9 Ks per nine is solid. The thing you
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: have to worry about the most with McLean, I think,
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: is that he's a young guy and he's thrown a
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: lot of innings now. 166 and two thirds, more than
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: he's ever thrown. So that would be the concern with
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: him is how is he going to hold up here?
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: Is he actually like starting to fall apart a little
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: bit here? It's hard to say. His numbers against Philly
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: have been really good. In 48 at-bats, 15 strikeouts, 4 walks,
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: 146 average, 378 OPS. So I do lean to the
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: Mets in this one. I think the Mets have the
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: better pitching throughout this game, so that's the way I
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: would play this. The money seems to very much agree
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: with that. 65% of the tickets are on Philly, and
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: the Mets are favored again. And I'm going to say
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: it again. Why are the Mets favored here? You know
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: what I mean? Like, the public's going to look at
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: this and think, but Philly's fighting for wildcard positioning. They
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: have the better record, and you're giving me them as
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: an underdog? Yeah, like, the public's all over that. So
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: even though Nola does not have the better numbers, he's
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: kind of the more known name, at least. 65% of
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: the tickets are on Philly. 89% of the cash, though,
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: on the Mets. So it looks like the public is
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: on Philly. The actual money's on the Mets, and I
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: do agree with that. Mets are around minus 130 on
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: the money line. Yeah, this one's not on my card,
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: but yes, I like the Mets here in this one.
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: Maybe some concerns about McClain here, but he's got the
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: better matchup numbers. He's been the better pitcher throughout the
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: course of the season, and you get the better bullpen
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: behind you. And it's one of those misleading lines. It
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: almost looks like a trap. It almost looks like the
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers are asking you to play Philly as the underdog there.
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: That's what I think about that game. I like the
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: Mets in that one. Kansas City and Houston on Fox.
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: Houston lost the game yesterday 5-2 after winning the first
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: game of the series in the return home spot. So
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: this has been a split series. Texas is now tied
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: with Houston. Don't really want to talk about that because
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox fucking suck and they can't get a win.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: Although they're almost locked into the number two wildcard spot
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: at this point. Red Sox are. Houston's definitely got more
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: motivation here, man. They're tied for the AL West right
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: now with Texas. They're also in the wildcard race. So
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: Houston's got more to play for. Kansas City, they are
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: still trying, so give them credit for that. But Houston's
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: not exactly like a huge rival of theirs. Kansas City
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: also has a crap bullpen. They used five guys out
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen yesterday. I would not trust their bullpen.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: I never do. Houston used three guys out of their
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: bullpen yesterday. Houston is the better bullpen. Slightly more rested
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: as well. Houston number 12 in bullpen here. Kansas City
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: is dead last, although I think they're the second or
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: third worst bullpen in reality. Houston is the better offense
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: as well. They're tied in 10th with the White Sox. Um,
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: Kansas City is number 19. Seth Lugo getting the start
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: for Kansas City. He's mediocre, I would say. 4.99 ERA. 1.45
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: whip is definitely not very good, though. Lugo, 6.03 road
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: ERA as well. He's been pretty bad on the road. 3.12
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: road opponent batting average as well. So Lugo, this season
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: has been a lot worse than... previous seasons, so he's
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: not really pitching well here this season. Last couple of
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: starts were not too bad, though, against Toronto and Boston.
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: He kind of bounced back. Three of his last four
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: starts have actually been pretty good, although two of them
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: were against Toronto, and he got lit up by Cleveland
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: in the middle there, which was not good because they're
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: not a good offense. Lugo's been very hittable this year.
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is all right. His strikeout rate's really low, though,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: and he's been very hittable, so I'm Not good for
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: the advanced analytics. 2.4 strikeout walk ratio. 6.9 strikeouts per nine.
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: Those numbers are not very good. His numbers against Houston
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: are mediocre at best and 97 at bats. 258 average.
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: 787 OPS is a bit high. 18 to 11 strikeout
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So I don't really trust Lugo here. He's
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: not good on the road. He's not pitching... I don't
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: think he's pitching particularly well recently, even though his last...
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: A couple of starts have looked okay. Most of his
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: good starts recently have been against bad offenses. So I
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: don't really think he's going to do that well. And Houston,
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: who knows what's going to happen with them. Miguel Uyola
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: is listed as their starter here. He's young. He's got
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: good numbers, but they have not actually let him be
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: a starter. yet he's been an opener for them. So
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: he's gone one inning exactly in his last four or
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: five appearances. So I think that's what you're going to
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: get out of him again. He will be an opener,
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: although Houston's lost every single game that he's appeared in
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: this year, which is not exactly a great sign, but
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: it's not really his fault if he's given you one
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: scoreless inning and then the guys pitching behind him don't
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: do their job. You know what I mean? What do
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: we do with this game? I... There could be another over.
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: Looks like the money does like that. 57% of tickets
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: on the under, 94% of the cash on the over.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: Total's at 8.5 or 9, so the odds maker's kind
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: of telling you they think it's going to be somewhat
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: high scoring. You got Lugo, who's not very trustworthy against
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game, basically, for Houston. So, yeah, to me,
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: it does look like kind of an over. The money's
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: coming in at Kansas City, which is kind of ridiculous.
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: I think it's just because you pretty much know As
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: a handicapper, you know that you have to pay too
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: much for Houston in a spot like this. Or, oh,
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: Houston needs to win. It's a must win, you know.
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: Battling for the division late in the series. They're minus 150-something. So,
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: I think you're getting charged a price for Houston, right? Like,
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: should Houston really be favored like that with a bullpen game?
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that. Like, at least Lugo
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: has been an actual starter for, like, pretty much his
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: whole career. So, 68% of tickets on Houston, 90% of
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: the cash on Kansas City. So the money's playing Kansas City.
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: I think if you do try to play Kansas City,
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: you should do it in the first five only, but
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: I would not want to do that. I would not
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: want to back Lugo. So possible that Houston's bullpen setup
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: here is actually better than that. I think the over
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: is the better way to look in that one, which means,
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: you know, I have two plays here, and I haven't
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: gotten to any of them yet. Yes, the next one
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: is one of them, and I mentioned it yesterday briefly.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: And I've decided to do it. We're going to take
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: the Detroit Tigers money line. I know the bullpens are
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: a little bit similar here. So I don't think Detroit's
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: bullpen is really a disadvantage here today, though. plus the
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: White Sox are going with a pseudo-bullpen game anyway. Detroit
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. I think
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: some of their better relievers did not enter the game yesterday,
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: including their closers, so Detroit has high-leverage arms available today,
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: so I'm okay with that. The White Sox used four
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen yesterday, and I don't know
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: who their closer is, to be honest. I don't really
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: know how high-leverage those arms were. But I think the
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: spot favors Detroit here. As I mentioned yesterday, the White
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: Sox are returning home from a road trip where they
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: went to St. Louis and Cleveland, and they did lose
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: both series on the road trip. They're not playing great
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: baseball right now. I think the pressure's on the White Sox.
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: They're this team that came from out of nowhere this year.
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: They were one of the worst teams in baseball the
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: last couple years, and now all of a sudden they're
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: a winning team. Maybe they just can't handle the... The
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: pressure down the stretch, man, because they're kind of an
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: inexperienced team at doing that. And now all of a
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: sudden Cleveland is ahead of them in the standings because
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: Cleveland just beat them. I don't think that's good for
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: the White Sox. They're returning home from the road, which
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: I think is a negative. You've got to get back
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: to home life. Could be distracted a little bit. I
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: don't know how much they're really going to pay attention
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: to Detroit, who's almost pretty much out of it at
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: this point. They're coming up a big series against Cleveland,
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: the White Sox are. So I think some negatives here
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: for the White Sox, man. Detroit, they seem to be
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: playing a little bit looser after they pretty much realized
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: they're out of it. They're actually starting to play better baseball.
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: And they did just go on a six-game win streak,
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: although they lost yesterday to Toronto. And yes, a lot
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: of times I do worry about teams losing a win
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: streak like that. Sometimes it'll hang them over into the
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: next game. I don't really think so here, though, because
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: it's ugly to lose to Toronto. I told you Toronto
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: was the right side. In that game yesterday, I couldn't
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: really stomach backing Scherzer, but I did like Toronto to
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: avoid the sweep with the motivation there yesterday, and they
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: were able to do it. Detroit now having to travel
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: from Toronto, not horrible. They're still staying in the Great
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: Lakes region, at least. I think Detroit will get up
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: for this. Detroit's behind the White Sox in the standings.
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: At the very least, they get to play spoiler. Detroit's
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: sentiment is probably like, well, we were supposed to win
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: this division, and Like, you know, if we're not going to,
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: you're not going to either, basically. That type of thing.
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? So I think Detroit will
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: show up motivated here. And I think they have the
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: better pitching setup in this game as well. So I
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: am going to back Detroit here for all those reasons.
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: As far as the bullpens, the White Sox are number 15.
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: Detroit's number 13. White Sox do have the better bullpen ERA.
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: But I'm still going to just back this full game
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: here because it's a situational setup. I think the rest
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: in the bullpens somewhat favors Detroit here.
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: And....
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: The fact that I think the White Sox are kind
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: of going with a bullpen approach earlier in this game
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: I think helps us as well. The White Sox have
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: the better offense. They're tied in 10th with the Astros.
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: Detroit's number 18, so there is that. But I'm going
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: to back Frambois Valdez here, man, even though I know
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: he's been all over the map this season. 4.01 ERA
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: is not too bad, though. 1.36 whip is not really
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: that good. I get it. He's at least kind of consistent.
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: He's pretty much the same home and away. So he's
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: at least somewhat predictable. And he's been good recently. He's
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: thrown 13 straight shutout innings. It was against Cleveland and
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: then at home against Colorado. So that's not exactly excellent,
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: but still. And he wasn't striking anybody out, but even so.
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: Or he wasn't quite a shutout. He allowed no earned runs.
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: So there was one unearned run that came home against
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: him against Colorado. But yeah. He's allowed no earned runs
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: in his last 13 innings, and he pitched okay in
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: his previous two starts prior to that, two against good offenses,
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay and L.A. He held each of them to
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: three runs, so Valdez is actually in okay form right now.
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: Over the course of the season, not really great. I mean,
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: his hit rate is right at one per inning, which
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: isn't really good. His walk rate's too high. His strikeout
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: rate's low, so the advanced analytics guys don't like that.
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: Two strikeout walk ratio, I don't like it either. That's
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: not good. 6.7 strikeout per nine is way lower than
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: what he's posted in the past. Yeah, Valdez has not
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: had a good season in his first season with Detroit,
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: but he's pitching a little bit better recently. He's going
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: up against the White Sox here, and his numbers against
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: the White Sox are at least okay. In 89 at-bats,
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: 258 average, allowed 722 OPS. That is below that threshold
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: that I look for. 1911 strikeout walk ratio is not
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: that good. Eight of the walks are from FOM and Vargas,
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: so I think maybe... you can overlook that a little
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: bit maybe. But I'm going to prefer him anyway here
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: because the White Sox are going with Eric Fetty according
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: to the schedule. But I would say if you're going
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: to play this game, I would say pick Valdesma start
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: for Detroit. Don't pick a starter for the White Sox
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: because we don't really know. It's going to be some
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: sort of bullpen approach. Fetty will be in the game
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: for some amount of innings. You might think, oh, well,
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: Fetty has a 3.97 ERA. That's pretty good. Well, he
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: has a 1.34 whip, so that's not exactly that good.
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: And yes, he is better at home, 3.13 home ERA.
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: I don't trust him, though. Even though his last couple starts,
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: he was all right. He went five innings and three
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: starts in a row. He allowed only four runs across
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: that span. That's not too bad. I get it. He's
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: pitching a little bit better here. Two of those starts
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: are against Minnesota and one was against a Pittsburgh team.
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: It's kind of falling off offensively here. So I don't
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: know how much to really put into that. But prior
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: to that, Fetty was not pitching particularly well. He also
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: does not have a good strikeout walk ratio, although I
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: know Valdez doesn't either. But. Yeah, Fetty, 3-3 in his
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: last two starts here. Strikeout walk ratio, that's not good.
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty hittable this year. His hit rate's not great.
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is just okay. His strikeout rate's low.
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: So he's another guy. Bad advanced analytics. Worse than Valdez
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: in a lot of ways. 1.9 strikeout walk ratio, bad. 6.1
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: strikeout per nine is also not good. And Fetty is also,
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: I believe he's not good against Detroit. Let me see. Correct.
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: They have 63 at-bats against them, a. 286 average and.
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: 929 OPS, 14-7 strikeout walk ratio. So say what you
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: want to say about Valdez, but Fedde is definitely the
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: lesser of these two pitchers here. Basically, all the numbers
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: are worse for him than for Valdez. The money's agreeing
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: with me on this, too. 58% of tickets on the
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: White Sox. Public basically is going to think, well, the
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: White Sox are going to bounce back here. They're back
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: at home against a team with a worse record than
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: they have. They need to win, that type of thing.
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: They've already dropped from minus 133 all the way down
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: to almost a pick-em situation. price here so the price
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: that i have up here the plus money might wind
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: up being gone like you're gonna wind up with this
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: game being pretty much a pick them but i still
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: think it's it's right i still think we should do
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: it detroit if you get any sort of plus money
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: it looks good to me as well so because i
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: think they have multiple edges in this game and if
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: you're giving me them in an underdog price okay 90%
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Detroit, so the money agrees with
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: me on this. The money's also coming in on the over.
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: I probably agree with that, too. I mean, Valdez has
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: the better matchup numbers, and they're still just mediocre. So, yeah,
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: I think the over does make some sense here as well.
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: The total's at 8.5, but Detroit will be my play
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: in that one. Next game is Boston, Texas, I think. Yeah,
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: Texas is trying to make the playoffs here still. The
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are pretty secure in their playoff spot here, although...
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: If they keep playing the way they're playing, they might
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: completely drop out, man. I don't know what to tell you.
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: Even though they have a big lead right now. And
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: the Yankees have a big lead on them. Texas, they're trying, man.
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: But this... I mean, I thought the Red Sox would
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: be able to win yesterday. The Red Sox bullpen really imploded.
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox had a 3-2 lead in the sixth
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: inning of that game yesterday. And the Red Sox bullpen
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: was a lot worse than it usually is. And they
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: wound up losing the game 7-3, so... The game was
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: closer than the final score, but the pitching matchup, as
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: far as this series is concerned, this is the best
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup in all three games for the Red Sox here. Yesterday,
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: I thought it was somewhat in favor of the Red Sox,
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: but this one is clearly in favor of the Red
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: Sox here. They better just get this game, man. As
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: a Red Sox fan, although I suppose it's not going
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: to really matter too much if they still make the playoffs,
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: they're going to wind up in that second wildcard spot anyway.
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday. Texas is the
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: worst bullpen of the two, although they won the game yesterday.
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: They brought in Eovaldi out of the bullpen. They used
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: two guys yesterday, and Eovaldi definitely helped them yesterday. Red
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: Sox is still the number one ranked bullpen in WIP.
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: They're number two in ERA. Close with the Yankees there.
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: Texas has not been very good. They're number 21 in bullpen.
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox offense has been the better of the
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: two as well. they're number nine here right now, Texas
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: is number 17, so the Red Sox have been the
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: better team in those departments overall, and the Red Sox
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: have Sonny Gray on the mound here, good season for him, 2.76 ERA, 1.17 whip,
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: he's been even better on the road in some ways, 2.62
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: road ERA, although his opponent batting average is higher on
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: the road, so his splits aren't really that significant, but
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: He's in pretty good form here. He's allowed three or
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: fewer earned runs in all but one start going through
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: the beginning of August here, and the one that he didn't,
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: he allowed four. He's got good command numbers here for
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: the most part of those. Walk rate's gone up a
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: little bit recently, but he's still pitching well. He's got
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: a reasonably low hit rate. His walk rate's pretty low.
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is decent. He's got a 3.3 strikeout
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, which is all right. Eight strikeouts per nine
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: isn't really that good, but the Red Sox seem to
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: have kind of had him change his approach a little
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: bit for longevity, and it seems like it is helping him.
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: He's also good against Texas. This is a pitcher-friendly park,
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: and Texas has 100 at-bats against him. Gray has definitely
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: had the upper hand against him. He's got a. 210
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: average against 509 OPS against 32 strikeouts, eight walks. So
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: he's pretty much dominated Texas. They only have three extra
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: base hits against him. All of them are doubles. from Diaz, Langford,
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: and Seager. So Gray should have the upper hand here
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: against what's going to be a Texas bullpen game. Tyler
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: Alexander is listed as their starter. He's pretty mediocre. He's
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: a bullpen arm. He's going to be like an opener here.
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: He'll go one to two innings, basically, I would assume.
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: His numbers against the Red Sox are also quite bad,
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: so the Red Sox might be able to jump on
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: him early, potentially. So the Red Sox should win this.
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: and avoid the sweep at least for the Red Sox
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: to do at Tampa next. The money's also against the
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: Red Sox because, again, Texas is a heavily motivated team
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: right now, and they're an underdog here. And it's expected
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: to be a close game. It's a low total, 7.5,
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: 8 on the total here. Money coming in on the over, though.
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know what to expect from this
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: Texas bullpen game, and that's what makes this a difficult
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: game to handicap. I do agree that Texas has more
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: motivation here, though. 84% of tickets, 76% of cash on
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox. The public basically says, oh, Sonny Gray
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: on the mound, the Red Sox, better record. You know,
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: trying to avoid the sweep, although they're right about trying
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: to avoid the sweep. That does give you some motivation. But, yeah,
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: the actual money seems to be coming in against the
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: Red Sox. 84% of tickets, 76% of the cash on them.
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: They're around minus 130. It looks like that line is
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: dropping a bit. I slightly lean Red Sox there based
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: on what this matchup looks like, but I don't have
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: a good feeling about it, man. I really don't. And,
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: of course, you know what that means, that this last
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: game is my other play. And then I'll take a
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: break and then talk about all the other sports. We're
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: going to take the Anaheim Angels, also at plus 110.
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: I know it means we're back in their bullpen, but
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: that's because they're playing Minnesota. So I think they actually
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: have the edge in the bullpen against Minnesota, who is
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: a really bad bullpen. And Minnesota's bullpen usage is bad, too.
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: If this site would ever load correctly for me, oh,
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: my God, I hate it. Minnesota's ranked second last in bullpen.
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: They're really bad. Anaheim is 22nd. They're not as bad
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: as Minnesota. again, if this would load, offensively, Minnesota's the
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: better team. There's no doubt about that. Minnesota has, let
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: me see, where are they at? They're number 14, though.
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: They've dropped a little bit recently. They're tied with the A's.
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's dead last. I know we're backing a putrid offense here.
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: I get it. But Minnesota's bullpen has had a ton
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: of usage recently. They used six guys out of the
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: bullpen yesterday. I mean, this usage, it's orange and red
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: all over the place. I mean, this is bad. So
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: I think you're getting the actually better bullpen with Anaheim
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: and the more rested bullpen because they only used two
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. So I like all that,
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: and I like the situational setup here as well. Anaheim
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: did just lose to Seattle yesterday, but they're staying at home.
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: Seattle finally got a win. Go figure. Anaheim's still staying
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: at home. To me, it looks like they're still putting
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: in effort at the very least. If you look at
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: their recent series, they played well against the Red Sox.
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: They played well against Washington, losing every game by one run.
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: They just played well against the Mariners. So the Anaheim's
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: not packing it in. You know what I mean? And
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: I think Minnesota's going to be overvalued here because everybody
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: knows they're like in desperation mode. Trying to get into
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: the playoffs here, but I think they might be in
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: a letdown spot because they just beat the Yankees, and
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: now look at what they're doing. Coming off a big
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: extra inning win, by the way, against the Yankees. Big
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: win for Minnesota yesterday. Yes, it did end a three-game
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: losing streak, but they're coming off huge series. Look at
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: all these series they played in a row. They played
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: White Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Tigers, Cleveland, Indians, I mean, Yankees.
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: So no letup here. Minnesota's had a bunch of big
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: series in a row. Now they've got to play the Angels,
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: and they have to adjust to the Pacific time zone,
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: by the way. So Minnesota's got to go from central
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: out west now, which is not that easy to do.
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: They have to adjust to a later time, so the
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: game's going to be ending around 11 p.m. their time
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: or whatever, or maybe later than that. So their biological clock...
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: Their biological clocks are going to have to adjust, which
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: is kind of a problem as well. Usually I like
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: teams starting a road trip, but not in this case, man.
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: I think it's a letdown spot. I think Minnesota is
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: going to be the public side here. I think they're
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: going to be overvalued because of the fact that they
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: need to win to stay in the playoff race, and
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: Anaheim has nothing to play for. But yeah, I think
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: Minnesota's in a letdown. I think the travel spot doesn't
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: help them. The bullpen doesn't help them. And I think
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: we get the better starter on the mound with Anaheim
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: as well. Taj Bradley's pitching for Minnesota. He's not bad. 3.81 ERA, 1.25 whip.
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: That's not too bad. But he is not that good
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: on the road. 4.52 road ERA. So he's more vulnerable
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: on the road. He was good last time out against Cleveland.
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: He had a one-hit six-inning shutout, but Cleveland's offense sucks.
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: They still lost the game, by the way, because the
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: bullpen is that bad. And he still walked four guys
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: in that game, so he was a little bit out
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: of control. His walk numbers, they've been bad, dude, even
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: though he strikes out a lot of guys. and he's
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: somewhat hard to hit. His walk rate has not been good.
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: So he does have some wildness issues. His hit rate's
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: pretty good. His walk rate is way too high, though,
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: and his strikeout rate is also high, so you gotta
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: give him that. But 2.6 strikeout walk ratio, with that
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: high of a strikeout rate, 10.3, excuse me, strikeouts per nine,
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: very good. That strikeout walk ratio tells you he walks
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: way too many guys, though. And the other thing is,
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: he's actually not good against Anaheim, believe it or not,
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: even though their offense is very bad. They have 35
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: at-bats against him, and they have a 286 average and
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: 896 OPS against him. So Bradley has bad matchup numbers here,
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: and he's in the bad home road split for him here.
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: Ted's strikeout's two walks is good, but the rest of
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: these numbers, not particularly good. So I think Anaheim can
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: actually get some runs here. And I think, uh, Minnesota
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: is going to struggle offensively because they got to go
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: up against Walbert, Walbert, Urania. He's been good dude. And
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: he still, to me is flying under the radar. I mean,
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: I think he's the better pitcher here and we're getting,
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: and he's in the better of his home road splits.
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure which Bradley is not. And we're getting
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: Urania as a dog here. All right. Um, 2.8 ADRA, 1.24
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: whip for him. He's been good at home. Like I said, 2.42
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: home area with a very good 186 opponent batting average
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: at home. He's still pitching well recently. His last three
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: starts have all been fairly good. Just missed a quality
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: start against Washington last time, but that was on the
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: road against a very potent offense. Minnesota's is more of
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: a mediocre offense. Uh, Urania has got a low hit
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: rate here. His walk rate is a concern though. Both
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: pitchers in this game definitely have some wildness problems. Urania
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: has also been a decent strikeout pitcher, but I know
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: his two strikeout walk ratio is not that good, but
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: it's actually gotten better recently. And he has an 8.6
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: K per nine, which is not too bad. And the
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: other thing I like about this is Minnesota has never
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: faced him before. He is a rookie. He has not
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: faced Minnesota this year. So I think he has an
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: edge here because he's a pretty talented young pitcher and
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: he's unfamiliar to the opposing offenses. So I think that
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: should give him a boost against them. Let's do it.
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: Let's take Anaheim in this one, man. Um, The money
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: seems like it is basically agreeing with this. We've seen
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: Minnesota already drop from minus 130 all the way down
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: to almost a pick'em. So again, just like with the
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: other game I talked about, you might not be able
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: to get Anaheim at much plus money anymore. It's going
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: to be right around a pick'em. Hopefully you can find
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: a number kind of like this. Plus money again with
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: a team that I think has multiple edges in the game.
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: Give me plus money, let's do it. But yeah, anything
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: around a pick'em I think is still a good, like
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: a fine number on this. 65% of the tickets are
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: on Minnesota, 63% of the cash, so they are public
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: with less of the money coming in on them. The
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: problem with baseball here is the public is not going
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: to keep the number up. The public is not going
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: to come in to such an extent on the Minnesota
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: Twins here that it's going to keep that number up
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: enough that you get a good number on Anaheim, especially
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: because there's football tonight. That's where the public is going
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: to be looking, even though Really, the NFL game is
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: supposed to be really good tonight, but the college game,
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: not really. But, well, who knows, really. But anyway, yeah,
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: like the public is not really going to be, there's
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: not going to be high volume on these baseball games,
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? The highest volume baseball game
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: is probably going to be the Fox game because people
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: like to bet on what they have on TV. Philly Mets,
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: I mean, that game I think will be the highest volume. So, yeah,
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: I don't think you're going to get a better number
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: by waiting around here. But yes, Anaheim is my other
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: play here.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: I'm going to be right back and then talk about
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: the rest of the slate here. I have a couple
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: of strong-ish opinions that just did not make the cut.
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: cut for me. One in WNBA and one in the
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: NFL game. If Mr. Thursday Night is returning, but I
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: almost made it a play and it might wind up
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: being in my pick five entry, but I'm not going
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: to make it an actual play for the NFL one.
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: Trying to limit myself a little bit. I have two
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: plays that are definitive, I think, at this point for
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: me in the NFL. nfl this week and you already
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: know what one of them is in the uh monday
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: night game um and i think i'm gonna have two
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: other plays most likely but i gotta figure that out
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: still i gotta nail it down all right i'll be
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: right back yep inside i want to kill myself We
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: were on an 0-7 run over the last two days
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: after tonight. It was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: I just have not had a good season, man, with weekends.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Slumped.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: new peak, actually. I'm gonna burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 4: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: after the worst day that I could possibly have. Back
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: with you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially end it all. Okay, WNBA is
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: next year's WNBA returns after the USA won the Women's
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: World Cup of Basketball or whatever the hell it is.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: We got a bunch of games here. My strongest opinion
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: here is this first game, Connecticut and Atlanta. And what
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: I always say is coming out of a huge break,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: I treat it like I treat a bye in football.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: So basically, I think that whatever... momentum a team had
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: going into the break I think gets stopped by the
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: break so if you went into the break on a
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: good note like a win streak or something like that
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: I think the break hurts you if you went into
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: the because you have nothing to fix really everything's going
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: well and you lose that momentum but I think if
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: you went into the break on a bad note that's
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: good you lose that bad momentum and you might actually
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: spend the break trying to fix things so I think
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: we do have some of that going on in this
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: game Atlanta I'm They had about as big a win
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: as possible going into the break. They beat Minnesota, who's
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: the best team in the league. So they went into
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: the break on a very good note here. And they
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: had won five of their last six games, I believe
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: is what that is. So they went into the break
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 4: on a very good note. So I think their momentum
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: might be stalled out a little bit, and Atlanta is
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: more of a defensive team than an offensive team, and
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: you're going to be asking them to lay a ton
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: of points here. It is against the worst team in
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: the league, though, Connecticut. Connecticut did go into the break
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: on a three-game losing streak, though. They lost to three
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: pretty good teams, two of them on the road, though.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: So I think they might use that break to kind
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: of fix some things and come out a little bit
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: better here. So this is my strongest opinion in the WNBA,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: and it would be to take the points with Connecticut here.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: Atlanta has 86% of tickets, 94% of the cash on them, though,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: so I don't know, it looks like the money's somewhat
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: indicating in their direction, but you're getting 15.5 or 16
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: with Connecticut here, and the money's kind of dropped the
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: total down a little bit. The total's not that high
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: in the 160s, so it's a lower total game, which,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: you know, to me, I like taking underdogs with lower
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: totals because it's more likely the underdog will cover if
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: there's fewer points scored in the game. It makes it
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: more difficult for the favorite to cover a number like that.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: I think it could be a letdown for Atlanta, you know,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: after that Minnesota win, whatever. So I would take Connecticut
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: if I was going to play this one. It's my
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: strongest out of the WMEA opinions today. I think by far,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: I don't really have a good opinion on the rest
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: of the games. Atlanta only has Chicago next which is
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: not a big deal though so now the other thing
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: to know about the WNBA is that the teams that
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: are in the playoffs have already been determined we only
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: have a few games left in the season at this
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: point and there's an eight game gap between the last
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: team that got into the playoffs which right now is
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: Dallas although some of these standings could shift a little
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: bit and then Portland being the team with the best
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: record that's eliminated even though they're an expansion team and
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: they're the Number nine team right now. They're not as
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: good as the record looks, though. But anyway, the teams
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: that have made the playoffs are Minnesota, Golden State, Vegas, Atlanta, Indiana,
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 4: New York, Washington, and Dallas. It's set that those eight
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: teams have made the playoffs. It's just these teams could
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: shift around in seeding, and all the rest of the
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: teams are eliminated. So that's something to keep in mind
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: here as we handicap the rest of these games here. Atlanta, though,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: they might still try because... They're tied with Indiana right now. Currently,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: that's the 4-5 matchup in the playoffs. And you'd want
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: to ideally get home court. You know what I mean?
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: So Atlanta right now is... They have the tiebreaker against
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: Indiana right now. And I think they want to maintain that,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: at least that home court. But that might not be
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: enough motivation to cover a number like this in a
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: spot like this. So I do like Connecticut in that one.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: Washington at Chicago. As I said, Washington is already in
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. And Chicago is not going to make the playoffs.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: Yet Washington's only laying one and a half here, and
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: it's down for four and a half. Well, why is that?
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: It looks way too easy to play Washington, right? Like,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: you're basically just asking, pick the winner here. Well, obviously,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: if the public looks at this game, obviously they're going
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: to play Washington. The team with the better record, the
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: team that is going to be in the playoffs where
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: Chicago is not. I would fade that sentiment, though. I
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: would lean to Chicago here just because it looks way
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: too easy to play Washington, although the problem is I
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: think you do have the injured player theory going on
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: with Washington here. I think that's why the line dropped
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: from four and a half to one and a half.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: And you know what I talk about when you have
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: an injured player. The line a lot of times overreacts
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: to that, and then you actually get line value on
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: that team. You know what I mean? A lot of
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: times they step it up because they know, oh, our
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: player's out. In this case, it's Citron, I believe, is
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 4: one of the better scorers for Washington. She's out for
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: personal reasons in this game. So it's not really an injury,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: but yeah, she's out, so the team might step it
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: up for that reason. Chicago, by the way, they've just
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: been rattled with injuries this year. Chicago has a ton
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: of injuries this year. this season, which has definitely hurt
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: them this season. They would have been better than this
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: had that not been the case. The money is definitely
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: playing Chicago here, though. They're only a 1.5-point dog here,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: but 75% of tickets on Washington, 55% of the cash
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: on Chicago. And like I said, it does look way
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: too easy to play Washington here. So I probably do
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 4: agree with that, that Chicago... would be the way to
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: play this. Plus, you get these teams that are eliminated.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: They usually step it up for games like this. Like, oh,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: we get to play a playoff team at home. Like,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: usually a team's going to get up for a game
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: like that. Whereas Washington, yeah, I mean, there is seeding
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: to worry about here, but they're going to be one
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: of the lower seeds. Like, they're not going to get
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: home court, you know, in the first round of the
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: playoffs or whatever. So they don't have a ton to
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: play for here at this point. And, you know... Ideally, though,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: they do want to not wind up in the eighth
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: place spot, though, which is where Dallas is right now. Ideally,
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: you would want to avoid Minnesota in the first round.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? All right. L.A. is at
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: Dallas on USA Network. Oh, by the way, yeah, I
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: should have mentioned the momentum type of spot for Washington.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 4: Washington lost their last game to L.A., which ended a
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 4: win streak for them. So Washington did go into the
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: break on a negative note. Chicago did as well. Chicago
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: lost three in a row going into the break. And
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: they lost to Phoenix. Excuse me, they lost to Connecticut.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: I was thinking Phoenix Suns. They lost to Connecticut in there,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: but then they got blown out by Indiana and New York.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: So Chicago did go in on a really bad note.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: So they might fix some things coming out of the break. Washington,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: it's a little bit more negative for them because they
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: did have a win streak snapped right there in their
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: last game. So I don't really... necessarily consider that to
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: be going into the break on a bad note. It
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: might just be that that winning momentum stopped and it
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: might remain stopped. But yes, LA at Dallas. LA is
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: not going to make the playoffs. Dallas is in the playoffs.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: But they might try to win to avoid the number
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: eight seed because that's where they are right now. They'd
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: have to play Minnesota. They do not really want that.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: No team would. LA went into the break on a
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: two-game win streak. So they went into the break on
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: a decent note. Now they have to go to Dallas.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 4: Not easy to do. Although I think LA will get
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: up for it, right? I mean, it's a TV game
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: and it's a playoff team. LA will probably get up
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: for this. Dallas might get up for it too, though.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: Dallas went into the break on a four game win
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: streak and they beat mostly bad teams in there. So
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: I don't really love that. Like the momentum might be
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: stopped by the break there, but Dallas might still get
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: up for this because it is a TV game in
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: primetime here and it's, One of the two TV games,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: it's a doubleheader, so the TV games are kind of...
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: isolated here. Dallas is also hugely public. 94% of tickets,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 4: only 91% of the cash on them. They're negative. Minus 8.5 here.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: The total's high. I mean, these teams are not particularly
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: good defensively, so the total's pretty high for a reason
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: in the high 170s. I still think I would lean
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: towards the underdog here, though, towards L.A., you know, maybe
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: having a little bit more motivation, playing out the stretch here. Dallas,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: you know, went into the break on a positive note
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: that might be a little bit more, you know, what's
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: the word I'm looking for? Not obstructed. Their positive momentum
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: might have been stopped by the break, let's say.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: Phoenix at Portland. Portland's not as good as the record looks, man.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: You can see, if you just look at the odds
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: in this game, it looks pretty weird, right? Like, why
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: is Phoenix, the team with the lesser record, by two games,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: on the road, why is Phoenix a two-and-a-half-point favorite? You
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? It makes no sense. And I
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: like when things don't make any sense because the oddsmakers
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: are telling you something. Like, they're telling you that the record's...
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: Don't tell you the full story here. Both teams, by
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: the way, have some pretty significant injuries right now. It
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: looks like Cooper out for Phoenix and Leyte, I don't
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: know how you pronounce her name, is out for Phoenix.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: I don't know how significant those injuries really are, but
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: there are some injuries here. Of course, Phoenix is without Plum,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: but that's been the case for a while now. She's
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: mostly missed the whole time since they got her. I
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: think they traded for her, and she's only played like
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: two games for them. So a lot of injuries on
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: both sides here, but the odds are telling you that
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: the current roster that Phoenix has is better than the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: current roster that Portland has. I think Portland, like I said,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 4: even though they're the... number nine team in the league
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: right now they're the top of the non-playoff teams they're
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: not as good as that the odds makers are telling
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: you phoenix is actually better than they are i think
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 4: i agree with that portland's an expansion team i think
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: they've overperformed a little bit this year so i like
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: phoenix just because of that uh it just looks way
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: too easy to take portland oh my god i'm getting
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: the team with the better record as an underdog at
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: home Yeah, well, the oddsmakers are not just throwing money away.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 4: Phoenix ended a four-game losing streak in their last game
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 4: going into the break, and they killed Toronto. But I
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: don't think that that's going to stop their momentum, right?
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: Like having the break right after that. I think winning
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 4: that game stopped their losing momentum, in my opinion. So
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: I don't think the break is going to hurt them
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: that much. Portland... They went into the break on a
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: negative note as well, though they did lose four of
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: their last five games, and they lost by double digits
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: to Golden State in their last game. But I do
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: like Phoenix in this game. Portland's getting the public action,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: 92% of tickets, only 88% of the cash on them.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: So Portland is a public underdog. It looks like in
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: this one, you know I warned you about public underdogs.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: Because the odds makers are telling you the other team
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: is supposed to win this game and the public still
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: doesn't want them. So, yeah, I would lean Phoenix here.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: They're almost a three-point favorite now in that game. And
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: then the last game is the other USA Network game,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 4: which is Vegas at Seattle. Seattle should get up for
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: this because they get to host one of the top
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: teams in the league. I think Vegas is the second
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: best team in the league still behind Minnesota, even though
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: right now they're behind Golden State in the standings. Golden
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: State's also really good, but I mean, at least for
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: a WNBA team, at least. Seattle's bad, but this is
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 4: going to be a big game for them. USA Network, CNBC,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: they get to host one of the top teams in
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: the league, playing out the stretch here, so I do
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 4: think Seattle will get up for this, and they're getting
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 4: double digits at home. Vegas went into the break on
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: a good note. They won three games in a row,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: but it was all against bad teams, although Vegas is
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: still a good team. There's no doubt about that, but
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: Their momentum might have been stalled out a little bit,
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: and to ask them to lay double digits here, they're
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 4: actually playing Seattle twice. They actually play Seattle at home
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 4: after this, I'm pretty sure, so they don't really have
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: a look ahead here. Seattle went into the break on
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 4: a bad note. They lost three of their last four.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: They lost to L.A. going into the break, so I
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: think that break might help them kind of break that
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: losing momentum. Seattle's got the worst record in the league,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: and they're bad. There's no doubt about it, but I
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: still think they're actually probably better than Connecticut. I think
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 4: they'd still be favored on a neutral against Connecticut. Maybe
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: I'm wrong though, but I would lean towards taking the
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: points with Seattle in this one. Vegas is very public.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: 89% of tickets, 87% of the cash on them. They're
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: up to a 10 and a half point favor from
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: an opener of eight and a half. But yeah, you're
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: getting double digits with Seattle and the money is coming
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: in on the under in that game as well. Total
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: in the mid one seventies in that one. Um, Lowest
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: total is in the Washington-Chicago game, by the way, for
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: whatever that's worth. Washington plays a lot of low-scoring games,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: so asking Washington to cover on the road is also
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: quite an ask, although I know you're basically only asking
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: them to win the game, though, on that one, but
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: I still like Chicago on that one. But yes, in
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: this game, I like Seattle plus the points in that one.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: That's the way I would lean there, but I think
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: the best game out of any of these is to
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: take Connecticut plus the points. Huge number. Fairly low total
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: in that game. I think the spot sets up the
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: best for that game. I still don't really want to
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 4: do it, though. All right, college football. We have Syracuse
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: and Pittsburgh as the game tonight on ESPN. It's an
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: interesting game. It's an ACC matchup here. Both teams starting
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: ACC play, I'm pretty sure, right now. Syracuse, or no,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: Syracuse already did. They lost to Cal in their last game,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: which is going to make Syracuse look bad. Both teams,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: in fact, looked bad last week. Syracuse and Pitt both
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: looked bad, but they both were actually better than it looked.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: So that's the problem I have with this game is
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: that Both teams look better than that. Syracuse lost 21-18,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: but Syracuse put up 437 yards of offense, man. They
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: dominated the game. They had almost 200 more yards than
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: Cal did, and they somehow lost this game at home.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 4: It was because they were minus three in turnovers. They
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: had a ton of penalties. They dominated the possession. There's
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: no way Syracuse should have lost this game. Statistically, they
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: won the game easily. So this is a very misleading result.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 4: So Syracuse is definitely better than that result looks. However,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh also looked bad last week. They only beat UCF 12-7,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: which is really ugly. So they have not started ACC
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: play yet. Pittsburgh, that was a game against a Big
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: 12 team. that's that's kind of an embarrassing result for
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh because UCF's not really a good road team Pittsburgh
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: probably should have won this game more easily though they
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: won the yardage battle by over 100 yards they actually
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: had no turnovers in the game and neither did UCF
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: and I don't know how Pittsburgh didn't win this game
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: by more it was like they were just getting held
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: to well they weren't even getting held to field goals
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: they had a safety in the game so I don't
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: know man They wound up only getting one touchdown, but
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: they were winning the game 12-0 until the fourth quarter,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: at least, until late in the fourth quarter when UCF
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: made it a little bit cosmetic with a touchdown at
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: the end, although they actually kind of threatened at that
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 4: point because they made it a 12-7 game. Pittsburgh was
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: winning 12-0 prior to that. The Pittsburgh dominated possession. Their
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 4: offense was better than it looked on the scoreboards. I
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: think both teams are better than it looked. So I
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: think maybe the best way to play this game. I'm
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: not really a totals guy here, but I think the
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 4: over might make the most sense in this game because
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: both offices look so bad last game. And, uh, statistically
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: both offices were a lot better than what the scores looked.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? So I think the over
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: makes some sense here. The total is right on this
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: key number of 51 and a half. It's actually gone down.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 4: The money's actually coming in on the under 55% of
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: tickets on the over 51% of the cash on the under, um, Yeah,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: I like the over, though, based on what we saw
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: there in those last two games. It's harder to figure
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 4: out the side in this game because both teams were worse.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: Both teams were better than they looked last week. They
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: looked worse than they were. So, yeah, 51.5. Unfortunately, it's
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: right on this key number of 51. 51.5, so it's
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 4: a little bit above that key number of 51 still.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: So if you wanted to play the over, ideally you'd
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: want to get it at 51 or less. Syracuse is
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: also getting the money. They're a 10, 10.5-point underdog here,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: or maybe even 11 at some places. 51% of tickets,
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: 75% of the cash on Syracuse. Problem I would have
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: with that is this is Syracuse's first road game of
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: the season. A lot of times teams struggle in their
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: first road game, so I would worry about that a
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 4: little bit. And Pittsburgh does have some continuity coming into
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: this season, but the oddsmakers are accounting for that. They're
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 4: telling you Pittsburgh's the better team. I mean, they're laying 10, 10.5
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: points here, so obviously... Um, it's a lot to ask, uh,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: but Pittsburgh is bringing their quarterback back from last year
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: and whatever. Um, I believe he's, I don't think he's hurt, right?
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong about that. Is he hurt? Hold on.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: Let me see if we can see the injury report
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: on this. Um, I don't think they show the injury
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: report here like this. Let me see about the depth chart.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: Maybe if we could see that or the roster, I guess.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't know if you can see
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: their depth chart, but Heinz shows their quarterback. No, I mean,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: there's nothing to see there, so I don't know what
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 4: I thought I was hearing, but whatever. Anyway, yeah, I
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: don't even know, man. I think maybe Syracuse is the
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: right way to lean here because they probably looked a
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: little bit worse in their game last week because they
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: lost to Cal, and UCF, I think, is better than Cal,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: so Pittsburgh beating UCF still looks better than Syracuse losing
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: to Cal. You know what I mean? Yeah. Syracuse was
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: probably better to a larger degree in that game than
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 4: it looked than what Pittsburgh was. You know what I mean? Yeah,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh was better than it looked on the scoreboard. Syracuse was...
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: more better, if that makes sense, than it looked on
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: the scoreboard. I think there was a bigger gap between
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: scoreboard and statistics in Syracuse's game than there was in Pittsburgh's.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: if that makes sense. So I think I'll agree with
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: the market here and lean towards Syracuse plus the points.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: Not a strong opinion for me at all, though. Those
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: are my thoughts on that game. I feel more confident
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 4: about the NFL game, and it is almost going to
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: make the cut for me. Buffalo is hosting Detroit here,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: and this is what my title is of the show here. Oh, hi, Mark.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 4: I had to make the room reference here, man. But
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo is playing their first regular season game
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 4: in their new Highmark Stadium here where they have designed
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: the stadium. It's an outdoor stadium, but they designed it
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: such that the wind coming off the lake won't be
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: as bad in the snow games, which I think is
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: kind of bullshit. I like the snow games. They'll still
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: have snow. It just won't be totally extreme like that.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: And I think it's a heated stadium too, so the
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 4: snow won't really stick to the turf and whatever, which
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: kind of annoys me. Like Buffalo shouldn't even like that, right?
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: Like Buffalo should want that advantage. Like they tend to
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: play well in those snow games, except that they lost
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 4: that one game, I think to Cincinnati in the playoffs,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 4: but whatever. Um, Buffalo is a five, five and a
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: half point favorite here. And the, uh, look ahead line
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: in this game was three. So that's something you got
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: to pay attention to an NFL, especially, um, The look-ahead
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: lines come out a week in advance. So you can
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: see what was the line for this game now before
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: last week's games were played. And the line in this
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: game was, you could bet it, it was Buffalo minus three.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: Now entirely based on last week's results, Buffalo is now
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: a five and a half point favorite. So I tend
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: to like to fade reactions like that because I think
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: it's an overreaction. Week two, we call it overreaction week,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: especially in the NFL because it's the week where there
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: are the most overreactions because you have one game to
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: look at from every team and people draw way too
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: many conclusions from it. Oh, this team must be really good.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: This team must not be really good. And everybody overreacts
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: more so than they do in any other week of
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 4: the season because you only have one game to go on.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: And I think that's what's happening here because what happened
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: last week? Well, Buffalo... The whole narrative was Buffalo can't
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: win in Houston. I liked Houston in that game, and
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 4: Houston probably should have won the game. Houston was winning
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: the game late in the game, and I don't know
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: if you saw it, but Josh Allen threw a horrible
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: pass that should have been picked off in the end zone,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: and essentially Houston dropped the pick in the end zone
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 4: and gave Buffalo another chance, and then Buffalo wound up
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: winning with a touchdown. And the whole narrative was, you know,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: about how Josh Allen could not win in Houston. Josh
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: Allen was 0-4, I think, against Houston and 0-3 in Houston.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: And he finally got over the hump. But now what
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: I think we're looking at is that was a big
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 4: win for Buffalo. So I'm not going to say this
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: is a letdown spot because they should be excited still
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 4: to play in their new stadium. They're hosting a Thursday
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 4: night game. And usually the home team does still get
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: up for a game like this. It's still a big
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: game and it's a big opponent too. against Detroit, and
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: some people are going to say, oh, this might be
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: a Super Bowl preview or whatever because these are two
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: of the better teams in the league here. So I
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: don't think I really want to put this on my card,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 4: but I do like Detroit plus the points here because, again,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 4: the line was going to be three, and now it's
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: five and a half. Buffalo looked really good in that
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 4: win over Houston. Everybody's kind of overreacting that, oh, my God,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 4: Josh Allen finally beat Houston, so this must be the year.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 4: And Detroit did not look that good. Detroit barely got
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: by New Orleans. They had to dodge a two-point conversion
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 4: in overtime. I don't know if you saw that game,
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: but New Orleans took Detroit into overtime. And New Orleans
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: went for it. And I like the call. You're a young,
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: kind of up-and-coming team. You're playing a team that's better
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: than you like Detroit. Yeah, go for the win. I
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: like it. Don't go for the tie. You know what
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 4: I mean? So I like that New Orleans went for
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: a two-point conversion. I don't like the play call that
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: they ran, though. I like the idea of going for
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: the two. I think they should have called a different play.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: They failed, and Detroit escaped with the win. But I
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: think people are going to overreact to that, too. Like, oh,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: my God, Detroit's not that good. They almost lost to
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: New Orleans. I'm going to counter that with multiple things, though.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: You know, I said I like New Orleans this year.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 4: I like New Orleans to win their division this year.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: I think New Orleans is an underrated team. I think
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 4: Shuck is good. Shuck was awesome in the second half
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 4: of that game. Detroit was winning that game 21 to nothing,
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 4: by the way. So Detroit probably should have won that
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: game more easily than they did. They were kind of
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 4: dominating the game for a bit. And then Shuck had
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: an insane second half bringing his team back. To me,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 4: that does tell you that he's, he is a pretty
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: clutch quarterback. You know what I mean? So, I think
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 4: New Orleans is better than people think, so I think
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: Detroit's getting kind of a bad rap for that. But
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: Detroit was really good in the first half of that game,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: and New Orleans is better than people think. Now, my
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: one concern, though, is that Detroit did not win that
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: game statistically. So if Detroit had actually dominated this game statistically,
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 4: I might actually fire on Detroit in this game. The
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: thing was, Shotgun had an awesome game, by the way.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: 410 total yards, 300-something of the game in the second half. Crazy.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 4: And Detroit had a lot of rushing yards in the game.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: So Detroit was kind of more balanced. But New Orleans
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: outgained Detroit by 100 yards. Now, I would say that
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: is a little bit misleading, though, because, of course, what
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 4: happens when you're winning the game 21-0? Well, of course,
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: you're going to start running the ball more, and that's
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: what Detroit did. Dan Campbell usually doesn't take his foot
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: off the gas, but for whatever reason, he started running
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 4: the football a lot, and that's why you see Gibbs
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: at all these rushing yards, whatever. Detroit started running the
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 4: ball too early, up 21-0 in the third quarter. They
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: gave New Orleans a chance to come back, and that's
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: exactly what New Orleans did. And that's why New Orleans
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: had more yards, because they were airing it out, right?
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 4: Because they were trying to come back from down three touchdowns.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: So you know they were throwing the ball all over
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: the place. Whereas the Lions were running the football. So
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: that has something to do with why New Orleans won
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: the yardage battle here. But that still worries me. Detroit
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: lost the yardage battle by 100. They lost the first
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: down battle. They did win the possession battle, but the
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 4: other thing was they won the turnover battle. New Orleans
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 4: had three turnovers in the game, and it still went
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: to overtime, and Detroit still had to win, had to
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: escape in overtime, even though they were plus two in turnovers.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: That worries me just a little bit too much to
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: want to do this, so I like Detroit here. Hopefully Mr.
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: Thursday night is on point here. I would take the
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: points with Detroit if I was going to play this game.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: Take the five and a half with them, but I
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: can't quite get there with this one, man. So those
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: are my thoughts on it. The money's coming in on
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: the over as well. The total is 54 and a
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 4: half now from 53 and a half. I think it's
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: the highest total of the week here. I get it.
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 4: I mean, these are two good offenses and they've had
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: some defensive struggles over the last couple Buffalo. In fact,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: it was actually a pretty bad defense last year. Uh,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 4: Detroit was not really that good either. So I can understand,
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: you know, the, um, sentiment for the over, but I
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: kind of disagree with it actually. Um, Like, it's kind
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: of based on perception, I think. And what we saw
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 4: last week was both of these teams put up over
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 4: 30 points last week. So that doesn't really make me
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: want to take it over in the next game because
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: I think people are going to see that. Oh, my God.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: If both teams scored over 30, of course, they're both
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: going to light up the scoreboard here. I'm not so
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: sure about that. It might be a game that's a
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 4: little bit closer to the vest here. Although what I
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: will say is you always have to think about with
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 4: Thursday night, it is a shorter turnaround time. And when
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: the teams don't know each other that well, they have
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 4: less time to prepare for each other. So a lot
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 4: of times that does actually help the offenses because the
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 4: defenses are a little bit less prepared for what they're
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 4: about to see with the opposing offenses here. And Buffalo
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 4: has a new coach, uh, Brady, although I think they
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 4: brought him up in their own system though. So I
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: don't think they're changing, um, their, um, I think he
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 4: was their offensive coordinator. You can correct me if I'm
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 4: wrong about that. Um, But I think that means they're
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 4: probably not changing the look of their offense very much, though.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 4: So there is still tape that you can look at
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: for both of these teams here. So it's not going
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: to be the craziest thing here. But still, these teams
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 4: don't usually play each other. So there is some unfamiliarity here.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: And that usually actually is more conducive to an over
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 4: because the defenses don't quite know what they're going to
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: be up against here. You know what I mean? I
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: don't want the under in this game either. Playing the
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 4: under would just be zigzagging what happened last week, basically.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Which is not enough when
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 4: there are some reasons why this game might still be
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: quite high scoring. And one other thing about Detroit, by
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: the way, that worries me a little bit is on
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 4: the short turnaround time, the home team usually has a
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 4: bit of an advantage because obviously they're playing in their
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 4: own stadium. They're used to that. Both teams are traveling here,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 4: so there's no travel edge really for Buffalo here because
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 4: they're still having to travel back home. But still, Buffalo is...
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: their new stadium so no other opponent except for the
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: teams that played there in preseason no other opponent is
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: even familiar with the stadium yet so that's a little
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: bit of a drawback for Detroit as far as that's
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: concerned although at least for Detroit it's a very short
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 4: travel leg going from Detroit to Buffalo so it's not
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 4: really that bad but short turnaround time usually the home
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 4: team has a little bit of an extra edge if
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: it's uh teams that don't play each other often so
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: I will say that but I still like Detroit in
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: this particular one and yeah Buffalo is going to be
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 4: pumped up to be playing in their new stadium whatever
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 4: there's going to be probably the celebration first regular season
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 4: game in this new stadium it's on TV so there
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: will be motivation there for that but I think Detroit
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: might spoil the party, man. Like I said, it's not
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: going to make the cut for me as far as
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 4: a play, but I would lean to Detroit plus the points.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 4: The other thing I will mention is that Josh Allen
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: is 3-0 in his career against Detroit, the last two
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: of which were in Detroit, but every game was close.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: So I believe Allen beat them here at home in
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: his rookie season, but they only won that game, I think,
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: by two or three points. It was a close game.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 4: Then the two road games, one of them was two
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 4: years ago, and I believe Buffalo won that game by
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 4: about five, or six maybe, and it was a high-scoring game.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 4: The other game they went into Detroit, it was another
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 4: close game, and they only won by like three or whatever.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: So Allen is 3-0 against Detroit, but he has not
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: beaten them by more than six points in any of
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 4: those games, and two of them were by less than
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 4: what the spread is here today. So all of those
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: games have been close. So something to keep in mind,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: although I don't know how much it really matters, like,
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 4: Does a game that was played in 2018 or 2019
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: or whatever it was, does that really matter as far
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: as this game today? Probably not. I mean, these are
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: two different teams now. So I just figured I would
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: throw that out there because it is one of the narratives. Garrett,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 4: what's up, man? Thanks for hanging out. That is going
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: to do it for me. The two plays today, they're
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: both baseball plays. I think we're getting plus money on
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 4: a couple of teams that I think have some advantages
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 4: situationally and pitching-wise. We're taking the Detroit Tigers out. And
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: the Anaheim Angels. It's ugly. I get it. But those
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: are the two plays today. Both on the money line.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: Simple card today at least. But that's going to do it.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 4: And my Thursday night lean was to the Lions plus
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 4: the points in that one. which almost made the cut
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: for me, and my strongest WNBA opinion was Connecticut plus
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: the points, but that didn't make the cut for me either,
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: and I don't have a good read on the side
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: in the college game really at all. It was a
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 4: very weak lean towards Syracuse for me, but in my opinion,
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 4: I think the over might be the better way to
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 4: play that game after both offenses looked a lot worse
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 4: than they actually were last week, but it's not a
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: game that's going to be a play for me or
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: anything like that as I Got to adjust the mic
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: a little bit here, but I'm out of here anyway.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tote on Twitter. Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like,
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here, of course. Give me good comments.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 4: Hype it up. We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Check
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: it out there. Covered in uke on YouTube, my ukulele stuff. Patreon.com
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: slash Learn to Tote if you want to support me
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 4: over there. Loser cast every Tuesday night, and we'll see
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: if the New York Giants G-Spot podcast will actually begin.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: And I think that's it. Peace. Hold on, hold on,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: not tonight.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: Not now.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Hold on. Let me pull you out. That
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: bad luck bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Hold on, stay with me now Hold on,
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: hold on You're still here now guitar solo