Latest / Financial Survival Network / Economic Risks Ahead: Supply Chain & Inflation- Ted Thatcher #6160

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Economic Risks Ahead: Supply Chain & Inflation- Ted Thatcher #6160 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: What that starts to tell me is that the average
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  Speaker 1: consumer isn't not just living paycheck to paycheck, but they're
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: living credit card payment to credit card payment. And after
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  Speaker 1: thinking about the inflationary consequences, I just don't think that
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  Speaker 1: more supply chain issues are going to be at all helpful,
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  Speaker 1: and it could be again a sort of straw that
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: breaks the camels back.
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  Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where you
• 0:27
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• 0:31
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• 0:50
  Speaker 1: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz, and with us
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: today is to thatcher, noted financial expert and Ted. It's
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: great to have you back on.
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  Speaker 2: Well.
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  Speaker 1: I guess the topic, de jure. What's on everybody's mind
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  Speaker 1: right now is the port strike in the East and
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  Speaker 1: evidently evidently it's the entire East coast. Whether it's a
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  Speaker 1: right to work state or not doesn't seem to matter.
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  Speaker 1: They're all on strike here. Absolutely, Carrie, It's great to
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  Speaker 1: be with you, And honestly, I think it's unfortunate to see. Right,
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  Speaker 1: we just have gotten through and we all remember everything
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  Speaker 1: that happened with the supply chain from COVID's consequences and
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  Speaker 1: then of course the ship when it was stuck in
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  Speaker 1: that straight in the Middle East, and the first and
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  Speaker 1: second and third order consequences that happened with that. Given
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  Speaker 1: the incredible amount of inflation we've seen the last couple
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  Speaker 1: of years, I don't think we need an even bigger
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  Speaker 1: supply chain pressure. But on our country, as you know,
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  Speaker 1: the average American is really who's going to field on
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  Speaker 1: the front of this, and certainly the middle class.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Sure, and well there isn't much redundancy in the system.
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  Speaker 1: I guess they can get stuff into California and ship it,
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  Speaker 1: but that's not really going to make up the slack,
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  Speaker 1: will it. No. I think that basically. I mean, we'll
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  Speaker 1: see how quickly this all comes to a head, and
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  Speaker 1: if they're able to resolve it quickly or not. I
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  Speaker 1: think it's really interesting just I sort of the almost
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  Speaker 1: lack of political pressure there is to really bring this
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  Speaker 1: to ahead, even though it's such a you know, young strike.
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  Speaker 1: We were hearing about it last week, at the potential
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  Speaker 1: of it, and I just feel like that there's more
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  Speaker 1: that can be done. But the problem is is, I think,
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  Speaker 1: when you look at this at the broader level, what
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  Speaker 1: does it do to the well broader economy? The question
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  Speaker 1: I've been getting constantly is, well, ted, how's the economy doing?
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  Speaker 1: And of course there's just so many ways to measure
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  Speaker 1: it j And I think, maybe, yeah, well, there's so
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  Speaker 1: many people will just look at the stock market and
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  Speaker 1: they'll say, hey, the market's up. I mean, it must
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  Speaker 1: be great. But of course, and least in my opinion,
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  Speaker 1: there's no way to measure how the economy is doing
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  Speaker 1: here in the US without looking at the average American consumer.
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  Speaker 1: And if we look at that consumer, they are having
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  Speaker 1: they have a trillion dollars in credit card debt. You know,
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  Speaker 1: they can't come up with a thousand dollars expense or
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  Speaker 1: they'll for you know, cover a cover one thousand dollars
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  Speaker 1: expense without you know, dipping into their credit cards. And ultimately,
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  Speaker 1: what that starts to tell me is that the average
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: consumer isn't not just living paycheck to paycheck but they're
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: living credit card payment to credit card payment, and after
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  Speaker 1: thinking about the inflationary consequences, I just don't think that
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  Speaker 1: more supply chain issues are you know, going to be
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  Speaker 1: at all helpful. And it could be again a sort
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  Speaker 1: of straw that breaks the camels back, as if we
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  Speaker 1: needed another plus with what's going on in the Middle East,
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  Speaker 1: let's not overlook that and potential to increase the price
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  Speaker 1: of oil, although we haven't seen a huge spike up yet,
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  Speaker 1: but seems kind of inevitable if things escalate out of
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  Speaker 1: control here. It doesn't intend well. The price of energy
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  Speaker 1: absolutely contributes to the inflationary issues again and again, and
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  Speaker 1: I completely agree that it's well after what's happened in
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  Speaker 1: the last couple of years, the Biden administration lowering and
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  Speaker 1: lowering artificially the price of oil through you know, the
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  Speaker 1: release of the United States energy reserves, that becomes an
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  Speaker 1: even bigger issue to consider. And and so then you know,
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  Speaker 1: you think about what the FED has done right started
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  Speaker 1: this lowering interest rate cycle that you know, if they're
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  Speaker 1: not careful, is going to have more instillationary pressure. And
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  Speaker 1: all these other things ultimately tell me that it's interesting
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  Speaker 1: to think that we're going to be able to have
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  Speaker 1: this quote unquote soft landing the way we all you know,
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  Speaker 1: would I guess like sounds more like a crash landing. Huh,
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  Speaker 1: I would say so. I mean I think the other
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  Speaker 1: way I think about this too, is when we think
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  Speaker 1: about the stock market hitting these you know, near all
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  Speaker 1: time highs or all time highs, and then we see
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  Speaker 1: everything that's actually happening on the ground on Main Street.
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  Speaker 1: There's just unbelievable discrepancy between what's happening on Wall Street
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  Speaker 1: and what is happening on Main Street. And unfortunately, given
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  Speaker 1: the unbelievably powerful hand that this fed that wields, if
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  Speaker 1: they're committed to lowering and lowering rates, I just don't
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  Speaker 1: see a world where that doesn't get further and further
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  Speaker 1: and further stretched out. And then we have to think about,
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  Speaker 1: you know, the sort of well, if you want to
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  Speaker 1: say crash landing, that it gets created because of that.
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  Speaker 1: It's almost like if they are committed to this direction,
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  Speaker 1: that there's almost going to be a melt up potentially
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  Speaker 1: before there's a crashdown, oh for sure. And the melt
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  Speaker 1: up is just the flip side of that. So how
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  Speaker 1: do you protect yourself. How do you stop them from
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  Speaker 1: destroying all your wealth. Well, you have to own assets
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  Speaker 1: at the end of the day. That can be sir,
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  Speaker 1: on the precious muddles, that can be at home, that
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  Speaker 1: can be you know, a financial assets. The truth is is,
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  Speaker 1: if the FED really is going to lower rates, they're
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  Speaker 1: at the highest point they've been at, you know, up
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  Speaker 1: until you know, two weeks ago, for thirty five years
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  Speaker 1: haven't been this high, and so almost to me at least,
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  Speaker 1: regardless of who's president, right or wrong, if the Fed's
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  Speaker 1: going to commit to lower all the way down to
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  Speaker 1: back maybe even below three percent, that is going to
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  Speaker 1: have an unbelievably heavy handed upward consequence on the financial markets.
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  Speaker 1: And again, right or wrong, that's going to be the
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  Speaker 1: way I think that you're going to try to preserve
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  Speaker 1: some wealth here. Now, we could talk about strategic plays.
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  Speaker 1: You know, I've been I've got a lot of people
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  Speaker 1: that have said, hey, big tech is way over extended.
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  Speaker 1: We want to keep doubling and tripling down on Nvidia.
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  Speaker 1: You know, maybe not, but at the end of the day,
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  Speaker 1: you know, the FED is the central Bank of the
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  Speaker 1: United States of America. It is the most powerful financial
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  Speaker 1: entity in the world and arguably in all of history.
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  Speaker 1: And so if they're going to commit we've all heard
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  Speaker 1: that phrase, don't fight the Fed that it Teeter Totter
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  Speaker 1: is now headed in the opposite direction. Yeah, So so
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  Speaker 1: we thinking about gold at this point, we're thinking about
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  Speaker 1: the cryptocurrencies, or as I'd like to endearingly call them, kleptocurrencies, cleptocurrency.
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  Speaker 1: I like that. Well, gold has been on an absolute
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  Speaker 1: terror I think, you know, precious metals have been a
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  Speaker 1: huge hedge against inflation, and gold has been at the
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  Speaker 1: top of that list. I do think it's interesting right
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  Speaker 1: now if you look at where silver is at, there
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  Speaker 1: is I think an interesting play to be made there.
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  Speaker 1: It seems from a lot of different analytics I've looked
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  Speaker 1: at poised to also go up in a similar fashion
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  Speaker 1: as gold had. I do also think, I mean, this
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  Speaker 1: is much more of like a strategic bet kind of play,
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  Speaker 1: because we did hear so much about that Teeter Totter
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  Speaker 1: the last couple of years between the you know, the
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  Speaker 1: FED and the Federal funds rate and bond values, that
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  Speaker 1: inverse relationship that they have. You know, if you believe
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  Speaker 1: the Fed is going to keep lowering interest rates, it
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  Speaker 1: could be time to get on the other side of
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  Speaker 1: that teeter totter and maybe try to look at some
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: long term bonds. I've had some conversations about even leveraged
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: long term treasury bond funds. There's this one fund called
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: TMNF that we've looked at, or I've looked at a
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  Speaker 1: couple times. Basically it's twenty year treasuries, but just triple leveraged.
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  Speaker 1: And so, you know, obviously, given everything that's happened this
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  Speaker 1: week with the strike, treasuries are actually you know, going up,
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  Speaker 1: which is you know, certainly a negative consequence in the
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  Speaker 1: short term for a fund like that, But if the
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  Speaker 1: overall macroeconomic trend is for the FED to lower rates,
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  Speaker 1: that's definitely a kind of holding that would jelly, you know, perform. Well, okay,
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  Speaker 1: we'll buy it, and I guess we'll have to have
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  Speaker 1: you on next month to go over whatever happens with
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the election, and uh, you know, we're in silly season here,
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  Speaker 1: although the debates that have been have been definitely the
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  Speaker 1: ratings hog of this this month sweeps or this quarter
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  Speaker 1: sweeps as we used to call them. Just you know,
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  Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna bother to ask you what you
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: think the outcome of the election will be. We don't
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  Speaker 1: really talk politics, we talk economics, but certainly when you
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  Speaker 1: throw that into the mix, more geopolitical instability in in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East, in you know, in Ukraine, Russia, China,
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  Speaker 1: India there now China and India. Pretty soon North Korea
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  Speaker 1: kick up because they don't like being ignored. Throwing that
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  Speaker 1: all into the mix, it really creates a lot of
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  Speaker 1: uncertainty and a lot of people looking for defensive you know,
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  Speaker 1: both holes, financial, both holes, right, they're there trying to
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  Speaker 1: well stop the leaks, right, And I mean, I agree,
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  Speaker 1: I tend to be much more of a financial person
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  Speaker 1: than ever a political one. But I think you're absolutely,
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  Speaker 1: you know, more than correct to point out the nuance
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: and interesting nature of this election. We have a former
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: president who's running again and has been There's been what
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  Speaker 1: two assassination attempts now on Trump, while of course everything
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  Speaker 1: that's happened with you know, Biden stepping down and you know,
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  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris replacing him and his position, I don't think
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: there's been an election like this maybe to be Onta.
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  Speaker 1: Ever gotta wonder, you gotta wonder, I mean, it's just
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  Speaker 1: the insanity of it all. And yet you're supposed to
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  Speaker 1: try to stay rational and the keep things going here.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know how you do it here that I
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  Speaker 1: really don't. No, I think that way, the average person
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: is put into a very very precarious situation. Most average
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Americans don't have enough time to go to their job
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: and spend time with other family much less, you know,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: figure out a sophisticated strategy for their money across one
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  Speaker 1: of the most volatile times certainly in the last several decades.
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  Speaker 1: And so you know, ultimately we got to watch out
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: for the sort of well, the precarious nature of the
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  Speaker 1: world we're living in today. I was having a conversation
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: earlier this week and just a simple you know takeaway
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  Speaker 1: being it's just a much more of a volatile time
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  Speaker 1: than it was ten years ago when the markets were
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: just steady eddy things are pretty you know, just kind
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  Speaker 1: of bland, and now it's we have a depth of
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: dealing crisis, and then we have all this political strife,
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  Speaker 1: and we have the war in Ukraine and terror attacks
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  Speaker 1: in Israel and conflict in the Middle East, and inflation
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  Speaker 1: and interest rates, and you know there's going to be
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  Speaker 1: another thing, you know, the strike, Right, that's the next one.
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  Speaker 1: What's going to happen at for that, Well, that's probably
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  Speaker 1: going to happen, Probably going to be more questions coming
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  Speaker 1: into November. All right, I think we'll leave it at that. Ted,
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  Speaker 1: just tell us where do we find you again? How
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: do we connect with you on the web? Sure? Absolutely.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Our website's Brightlakewealth dot com. Thanks Carrie, all right, and
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: the links in the show notes to this interview on
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there, make sure
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: you sign up for your free newsletter. And you've got
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: a question for Ted or myself, shoot me an email
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: kl atcarriets dot com. Ted again, thank you for stopping by.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: We'll talk to you again. Sem Hey, thanks so much, Jerry.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie. Let's this Financial Survival Network
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: than ever,