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Crypto Crash Not Over?📉Technical Analysis with DataDash · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Let's dive into it today. We're going to be talking
0:02
Speaker 1: about the government shutdown, the crash of crypto, and of
0:05
Speaker 1: course a lot more. You don't want to miss it.
0:07
Speaker 1: We'll also do some charting. It's going to be a
0:08
Speaker 1: good one. Let's just get started. I want to jump
0:11
Speaker 1: over to a clip first, and this clip came from
0:16
Speaker 1: this innovation summit with the FED around payments. I don't
0:21
Speaker 1: want to respond to it yet. I'm going to play
0:23
Speaker 1: it for you guys, because it just pissed me off.
0:25
Speaker 1: Listen to this.
0:26
Speaker 2: You know, you should be able to pay some kind
0:28
Speaker 2: of reward or yield on the actual T bills and
0:31
Speaker 2: money market funds that you're holding.
0:32
Speaker 3: You should be able to pass some of that on
0:34
Speaker 3: to customers.
0:35
Speaker 4: It's not an investment vehicle. It's not a time to
0:38
Speaker 4: posit where you're holding it to earn interest. Right, You're
0:40
Speaker 4: not holding currency for its yield. If Congress wanted to
0:44
Speaker 4: let you pay interest, they should have just said let's
0:46
Speaker 4: pay interest. So trying to backdoor it is a little funny.
0:50
Speaker 4: It's not supposed to bear interest. And you know, at
0:52
Speaker 4: that point it's not up to me to decide whether
0:55
Speaker 4: that's up to Congress I don't want to. That's why
0:56
Speaker 4: I don't want to think about paying interest on these
0:59
Speaker 4: payment accounts. It's not supposed to be an account for
1:02
Speaker 4: somebody to hold stable coins and earn interest. You're not
1:05
Speaker 4: holding it to earn interest. So it's a claim on
1:08
Speaker 4: the banks. You can disintermediate a bank, but you can't
1:12
Speaker 4: disintermediate the banking system. You don't have any claim to
1:16
Speaker 4: demand treasuries. You don't get to go to the bank.
1:18
Speaker 4: I want some treasuries. They'll say, no, you get a dollar.
1:21
Speaker 4: Here's what you get. Those are my thoughts.
1:24
Speaker 1: All right, So understanding that is a FED chair or
1:27
Speaker 1: excuse me, Fed governor Waller. And this is all around
1:31
Speaker 1: these skinny master accounts that they're talking about, which would
1:35
Speaker 1: kind of circumvent the traditional FED master account that you
1:37
Speaker 1: have to have on your bank, right, And what they're
1:40
Speaker 1: talking about is allowing stable coins into this This is
1:42
Speaker 1: where it gets a little money. Because we're not sure
1:45
Speaker 1: what that means. One Congress would have to initiate that
1:48
Speaker 1: in the Genius Act. The Genius Act is now already
1:51
Speaker 1: in a position where they're trying the banks or trying
1:54
Speaker 1: to get this almost redrafted all to protect bank deposits
1:58
Speaker 1: because of the concern that we may see this massive
2:01
Speaker 1: bank exodus going into stable coin. Now, granted, this could
2:05
Speaker 1: still fly into possibly into the DeFi side of things.
2:08
Speaker 1: There could also be some interesting investment instruments that could
2:12
Speaker 1: be activated. But this will muddy the waters dramatically for
2:16
Speaker 1: crypto if in fact a stable coin yield cannot be
2:20
Speaker 1: done legally, So this is going to get pretty heated.
2:23
Speaker 1: Of course, Brian Armstrong and many others are in DC
2:26
Speaker 1: today trying to clarify not only this but much more
2:31
Speaker 1: in the Clarity Act, which of course is possibly on
2:34
Speaker 1: the cusp of getting approved. So there's a lot happening
2:38
Speaker 1: right now that is still very tied to where crypto
2:41
Speaker 1: is going. We are going to get into some looking
2:44
Speaker 1: at some charts today and how this applied because we
2:46
Speaker 1: saw Bitcoin, of course, of course run up this week
2:49
Speaker 1: and it has now regressed. So I wanted to bring
2:51
Speaker 1: in Paul coming in from Data Dash to kind of
2:53
Speaker 1: break this down.
2:54
Speaker 3: How are you Paul doing well? Paul?
2:56
Speaker 1: How are you nice to see you back? If you
2:58
Speaker 1: guys have not visited his YouTube channel, go over there
3:04
Speaker 1: right there, Data Dash, right there on YouTube. You guys
3:08
Speaker 1: are half a million subs over there, so good to
3:10
Speaker 1: see you guys out there putting out some great content.
3:13
Speaker 1: Let's get into the first point I want to hit on,
3:16
Speaker 1: and one of the things is, of course always is
3:19
Speaker 1: when Kramer does something like this, it immediately sends the
3:23
Speaker 1: crypto market into a frenzy. But that's not really it, guys.
3:29
Speaker 1: The real factor here that's pushing this market is things
3:33
Speaker 1: that are happening with this government shutdown. You've got snap recipients,
3:36
Speaker 1: now all this potentially gets cut off very short period
3:40
Speaker 1: of time. You've got all these job losses now being
3:44
Speaker 1: filed and unemployment being filed by federal workers despiked one
3:47
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty one percent. I thought that would have
3:50
Speaker 1: been much more than that, but this was seventy two hundred,
3:52
Speaker 1: even though there's like almost a million that are now furloughed.
3:56
Speaker 1: So this is a pretty significant one, highest since twenty nineteen.
4:00
Speaker 1: And when you look at just in general the amount
4:04
Speaker 1: of claims that rose nine percent from the prior week.
4:07
Speaker 1: So it's starting to cascade, which could get very very bad,
4:11
Speaker 1: I think in general for the economy, but also for
4:14
Speaker 1: I think for crypto in general. So this has this
4:18
Speaker 1: has a lot of bearing on bitcoin. Now, you had
4:21
Speaker 1: a tweet that you put out, this would be wild
4:24
Speaker 1: to get this move Explain what you're looking at, what
4:27
Speaker 1: I'm looking at right here in terms of your charts,
4:30
Speaker 1: and why you think we might see something come on bitcoin.
4:34
Speaker 5: Yeah.
4:34
Speaker 2: Absolutely, So that was actually a little something I was
4:38
Speaker 2: having some fun with yesterday, especially because you were getting
4:40
Speaker 2: a nice little pop.
4:42
Speaker 3: But after we had that top.
4:43
Speaker 2: Put in on the twenty or at one hundred and
4:45
Speaker 2: twenty six thousand and six of October, right we've got
4:49
Speaker 2: the big wick down and just kind of had this
4:51
Speaker 2: move over, and a lot of times what happens with
4:53
Speaker 2: that is, you know, you get this cooling off and
4:55
Speaker 2: time kind of passes by and another like harmonic setup,
4:59
Speaker 2: which is a sequence of Fibonacci. So all I'm looking
5:01
Speaker 2: at is for things such as that wick down and
5:03
Speaker 2: then sorry, So all I'm looking for things is things
5:08
Speaker 2: such as when you get this wick down and then
5:10
Speaker 2: you're looking for the rea you know, the pushback up
5:12
Speaker 2: into some Fibonacci areas, and there's sequences of those that
5:15
Speaker 2: have specific patterns. So in this case, I was looking
5:17
Speaker 2: for what's called de Gartle and it is this setup here.
5:22
Speaker 2: So when we came down and made the eight eight
5:24
Speaker 2: to six pullback last week. I think it was like
5:26
Speaker 2: the seventeenth Friday holding. That just kind of set this
5:29
Speaker 2: up where I was looking for a run back up
5:31
Speaker 2: towards that seven eighty six retlacement. So basically just looking
5:34
Speaker 2: for this to push up into the one twenty mark.
5:37
Speaker 2: I utilized fib time a lot, so a lot of
5:39
Speaker 2: times it usually takes just about the same amount of
5:41
Speaker 2: time to get from this point to this point, from
5:44
Speaker 2: that point to the end, So that's why I had
5:46
Speaker 2: the dates up there between. I think it was Sunday
5:49
Speaker 2: to Tuesday of this week basically, so yesterday we're getting
5:53
Speaker 2: that push up. On Tuesday, I was just looking at
5:55
Speaker 2: I was like, man, it would be interesting to get
5:56
Speaker 2: that push up. This would be a bearish setup, of course,
5:59
Speaker 2: and then over I actually still imagine we're rolling towards
6:02
Speaker 2: this ninety seven thousand dollars mark in the near ish
6:05
Speaker 2: term before we continue, if we're going to continue up
6:07
Speaker 2: from here. But that's what I was looking for, and
6:10
Speaker 2: it's still something that I'm looking to see if bitcoin
6:13
Speaker 2: does push back up towards that one twenty mark in
6:16
Speaker 2: the next coming weeks. Here I think that we're just
6:17
Speaker 2: really just range bound at this point for the short
6:20
Speaker 2: term here, all.
6:21
Speaker 1: Right, so you look at where the market is right now,
6:24
Speaker 1: we put this pull out in reference to kind of
6:26
Speaker 1: bullishness on bitcoin. Are people more bullish to one twenty
6:31
Speaker 1: or the one hundred much to your point right there?
6:35
Speaker 1: This I know this looks neck and neck, but remember,
6:38
Speaker 1: you know, Bitcoin trading at one o eight right now
6:41
Speaker 1: as we're recording, so technically this would be a little
6:44
Speaker 1: bit more bullish to go the one twenty route, right
6:48
Speaker 1: in terms of how this plays out. Do you think
6:51
Speaker 1: people right now are maybe overestimating this market at least
6:54
Speaker 1: in the short term, of the bullish nature of it
6:58
Speaker 1: with so many macro environments pushing this thing down.
7:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's we've discussed last time.
7:06
Speaker 2: When I was on I think it was like the
7:07
Speaker 2: day we were topping pretty much, it was like the
7:09
Speaker 2: six or seventh of October, and for me, I was
7:12
Speaker 2: looking for like one thirty, not much more than we
7:14
Speaker 2: already were going to and I also was targeting that
7:17
Speaker 2: you know target and that timeframe from months ahead.
7:19
Speaker 3: Uh So essentially we've topped there.
7:21
Speaker 2: And one of the things we discussed was the idea
7:23
Speaker 2: that if we see a substantial pullback from here, that
7:26
Speaker 2: everybody would be really really married to the idea that's
7:29
Speaker 2: four year cycle hit. You know, the top is in
7:31
Speaker 2: and even just getting a slight pullback to one hundred k,
7:34
Speaker 2: so nine, you know, breaking one hundred would really like
7:37
Speaker 2: put the gas on that. And then, like you said,
7:39
Speaker 2: now now we're surrounded by all these you know, news
7:41
Speaker 2: events and catalysts that seem like it's you know, pushing
7:43
Speaker 2: it down as well. Uh to me, honestly, I think
7:46
Speaker 2: we put in a top at one twenty six and
7:48
Speaker 2: from there I was always anticipating a range to come
7:51
Speaker 2: out of it for a couple more months, just like
7:53
Speaker 2: we've seen basically the entirety of this bold market so
7:56
Speaker 2: far as we all are really aware of, going back
7:59
Speaker 2: even to twenty twenty two, after we you know, pretty
8:02
Speaker 2: much started this run up. You got the initial run
8:04
Speaker 2: and then we just ranged around, giving everybody plenty of time.
8:07
Speaker 2: We just argue back and forth, bullmarket, bear market, bullmarket,
8:10
Speaker 2: bear market, boring everybody out of it just to continue up.
8:13
Speaker 2: You get another range to the side here at seventy
8:15
Speaker 2: four k for six months, which really just kind of
8:18
Speaker 2: went sideways and down, but not crazy. This is only
8:20
Speaker 2: like a thirty percent pullback again bear market max fear
8:23
Speaker 2: trade carry trade fear at the low's here, only to
8:26
Speaker 2: break back up again. You get another sideways when this
8:28
Speaker 2: one's a little quicker. So I just mentioned this in
8:31
Speaker 2: a video today that at least this one got over
8:33
Speaker 2: quicker than expected. But same thing, just a twenty and
8:36
Speaker 2: thirty percent pullback, big fears at the low right the
8:40
Speaker 2: the tariff war you know, basically broke out in this
8:43
Speaker 2: window and then now again we're getting the tariff you know,
8:46
Speaker 2: headlines to just kind of you know, push down the
8:48
Speaker 2: price here. But ultimately I was also looking for this again,
8:53
Speaker 2: a really big sequence of Fibonacci's that took place from
8:56
Speaker 2: the carry trade low with the timeframe of putting in
9:00
Speaker 2: a high around that week of.
9:01
Speaker 3: The twenty ninth, which aligns with the four year cycle.
9:05
Speaker 2: We pushed you know, three percent away from it, and
9:07
Speaker 2: ultimately the first target of this whole setup was back
9:10
Speaker 2: down to the three eight two, which we've essentially are
9:13
Speaker 2: sitting at right now. So with this the way it is, again,
9:16
Speaker 2: it's more so probably more probable to me that we
9:20
Speaker 2: range around in this region make our way down to
9:22
Speaker 2: the secondary target zone, which is about ninety four to
9:25
Speaker 2: ninety seven. But to me, I really think that this
9:28
Speaker 2: has a really big opportunity area for this to be
9:31
Speaker 2: the next major support and then we actually take it
9:33
Speaker 2: back up to new all time highs in twenty twenty six.
9:36
Speaker 2: But right now, yes to agree. You know that everything
9:38
Speaker 2: around us feels like it's pushing it down.
9:40
Speaker 1: But yeah, all right, So interesting that you kind of
9:44
Speaker 1: compared it to that range bound section around seventy five
9:47
Speaker 1: K because that was one of the areas where I
9:50
Speaker 1: think a lot of people thought bitcoin was done and
9:53
Speaker 1: then of course we saw the run up from there.
9:56
Speaker 1: Here's here's my question with the timing. And this was
10:00
Speaker 1: an interesting post by virtual Bacon over there. You guys
10:03
Speaker 1: should check him out. He does a good job on
10:05
Speaker 1: YouTube as well. But Marcus, don't stop on fear they
10:07
Speaker 1: bought him. And I agree with this. And my point
10:09
Speaker 1: is this, though, Paul, is when you look at where
10:12
Speaker 1: we are right now, the four year cycle play that
10:15
Speaker 1: into it, and then you look at the potential around
10:20
Speaker 1: the macro elements that are also playing into it, because
10:23
Speaker 1: it's likely we're going to get another seventy five basis
10:25
Speaker 1: points this year, they could roll this into even more
10:29
Speaker 1: aggressive next year. Government shutdown is not going to be forever.
10:32
Speaker 1: It's going to come back, and hopefully this you know,
10:34
Speaker 1: crypto regulation gets cleared. All those are still very bullish
10:39
Speaker 1: signs what you're and there's several macro analysts that are
10:42
Speaker 1: pointing toward an elongated cycle. Would you agree that if
10:47
Speaker 1: we are pushing and we do, let's say we hit
10:50
Speaker 1: that one hundred k mark, that ninety seven that you're
10:53
Speaker 1: kind of pointing to, would you be worried that a
10:56
Speaker 1: lot of people in the crypto market would say that
10:59
Speaker 1: was the top up at one twenty six, we're now
11:02
Speaker 1: in a bear market.
11:03
Speaker 3: Definitely.
11:04
Speaker 2: I feel like we see that as it is every
11:06
Speaker 2: day right now. Anytime you get just to push up
11:08
Speaker 2: to fourteen. Yesterday the eu fourio was kicking back in
11:11
Speaker 2: for a hot minute, and you dropped it right back
11:13
Speaker 2: the next day. And then you scan through and everybody's like, oh,
11:16
Speaker 2: you know, see you at sixty thousand, see you at
11:18
Speaker 2: thirty thousand. You know all these things right, and people
11:20
Speaker 2: are giving exact dates. They're thinking that, you know, they
11:22
Speaker 2: can pinpoint the exact low for bitcoin next year at
11:25
Speaker 2: November time, and I definitely foresee that that would be
11:28
Speaker 2: the case. And just to double up on your fear
11:30
Speaker 2: and greed piece. I don't know if you guys can
11:32
Speaker 2: see this chart or Okay, I don't have a showing here,
11:35
Speaker 2: but yeah, I was just going to showcase how even
11:38
Speaker 2: right now bitcoin trading at one hundred and eight or
11:41
Speaker 2: nine thousand dollars, the crypto market is in extreme fear
11:44
Speaker 2: right now. And to Virtual Bacon's point, you know, generally speaking,
11:48
Speaker 2: we don't see the market top there. Yes, we were
11:50
Speaker 2: in a little bit more of a neutral area when
11:52
Speaker 2: we did top at one twenty six, But yeah, I
11:55
Speaker 2: think that we're in a very similar situation to what
11:57
Speaker 2: we saw each and every basic side ways piece that
12:01
Speaker 2: we've seen on Bitcoin, the whole way up from thirty
12:03
Speaker 2: thousand back in twenty twenty three or four to the
12:06
Speaker 2: seventy thousand dollars last year, and then even to this
12:08
Speaker 2: year when we topped off at one hundred and eight
12:10
Speaker 2: thousand on Inauguration Day. So yeah, I think that it's
12:13
Speaker 2: definitely setting up for a big surprise if anything.
12:16
Speaker 1: All right, Well, one thing to consider is there is
12:19
Speaker 1: one guy that's very bullish still and that is Tom Lee.
12:22
Speaker 1: He's calling for an S and P five hundred at
12:25
Speaker 1: seven thousand, so very very aggressive to get to a
12:29
Speaker 1: seven thousand by year end. That would change things around.
12:32
Speaker 1: And again, this is something I've said before. If Tom
12:34
Speaker 1: Lee is right on these calls, this guy's going to
12:37
Speaker 1: go down as the most amazing investor call investor call
12:42
Speaker 1: we've seen, because he's been going against the current, you know,
12:47
Speaker 1: for quite some time on not only bitcoin but also
12:50
Speaker 1: of where we're standing on Ethereum. I want to go
12:52
Speaker 1: to a click a clip real quick, because this is
12:55
Speaker 1: Mike Novigrat's kind of going the opposite position.
12:57
Speaker 5: Take a look the big deal leverageing that happened a
13:01
Speaker 5: week ago.
13:02
Speaker 3: That's not good for markets, right.
13:03
Speaker 5: It wiped out a lot of market makers, means less liquidity,
13:08
Speaker 5: and you can see yesterday we were down and then
13:09
Speaker 5: up four percent and then right back down, and so
13:11
Speaker 5: there's a little less liquidity in the market. It took
13:14
Speaker 5: a lot of retail leverage out of the system, and
13:16
Speaker 5: so the good news is were less leveraged. The bad
13:18
Speaker 5: news is when Humpty Dumpty breaks, he doesn't get put
13:21
Speaker 5: together right away.
13:22
Speaker 6: How do you think about it? We've had obviously all
13:25
Speaker 6: sorts of folks from Tom Ley and others who come
13:27
Speaker 6: on and said, by the end of the year, we
13:28
Speaker 6: could be a two hundred fifty thousand dollars for this coin. Obviously,
13:31
Speaker 6: others like Kathy would have even you know, more aggressive
13:35
Speaker 6: and optimistic views longer term out But where are you
13:38
Speaker 6: right this moment?
13:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, at the.
13:40
Speaker 5: End of the year is only two and a half
13:42
Speaker 5: months away, and so there would have to be a
13:44
Speaker 5: heck of a lot of you know, crazy stuff to
13:46
Speaker 5: really get that kind of momentum. I do think, you know,
13:51
Speaker 5: we should hold one hundred, you know, one hundred or
13:54
Speaker 5: somewhere close to that should be the downside. And on
13:56
Speaker 5: the upside, you know, you don't really accelerate until you
14:00
Speaker 5: take out one twenty five. And so the most likely
14:03
Speaker 5: outlook is we're rangy between you know, one hundred and
14:06
Speaker 5: one twenty one twenty five unless we take out the
14:09
Speaker 5: top side. We could take out the top side if
14:12
Speaker 5: you know, the President prematurely makes a move on the FED,
14:16
Speaker 5: which you know they could, they could target that easily
14:19
Speaker 5: by the end of the year. And if this bill
14:22
Speaker 5: gets passed, I mean, those are the two kind of catalysts.
14:24
Speaker 1: I see all right, so you can kind of see it.
14:27
Speaker 1: He's still a little bit more on the bearish side,
14:30
Speaker 1: kind of counter to what Tom Lee is saying. Then
14:33
Speaker 1: you have to flip over to the gold market. We
14:35
Speaker 1: saw the gold market also adjust yesterday. Gold prices fell
14:39
Speaker 1: almost six percent. This was the largest one day drop
14:42
Speaker 1: since April of twenty thirteen. We called this out in
14:45
Speaker 1: our you know video yesterday. This is a sigma move
14:49
Speaker 1: right now. In other words, a large move only happens
14:52
Speaker 1: in one out of two hundred and forty thousand days
14:55
Speaker 1: in a normal world. That's uh, that's an interesting situation.
14:59
Speaker 1: So MI question is are we rotating? Is there are
15:02
Speaker 1: there assets that are trying to rotate, even though at
15:04
Speaker 1: the time maybe it was a short rotation into bitcoin
15:08
Speaker 1: and then literally taking liquidity right back out of the market.
15:11
Speaker 1: How did you play gold and bitcoin right now as
15:15
Speaker 1: a hedge.
15:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's take a look at gold.
15:20
Speaker 2: Last time I was on I believe it was just
15:22
Speaker 2: breaking through that like right around the four thousand dollars mark.
15:26
Speaker 2: But we discussed this one a couple of times. I
15:29
Speaker 2: think that gold and bitcoin are very very much alike
15:32
Speaker 2: in the sense of the only thing you can even
15:33
Speaker 2: compare bitcoin two in this time is gold with the
15:36
Speaker 2: price action and the things we've seen in history, especially
15:39
Speaker 2: as we come into some major turning points or events
15:43
Speaker 2: in you know, our financial history that goes that way.
15:46
Speaker 2: Usually when we see gold pumping, generally is not a
15:48
Speaker 2: great sign in the next coming twelve to twenty four months,
15:51
Speaker 2: because that's generally when people are running away from fiat
15:54
Speaker 2: currencies are kind of hedging their bets a little bit
15:56
Speaker 2: ahead of big downturns. But anyways, gold had a huge
15:59
Speaker 2: break of you know, the previous high here, we ran
16:00
Speaker 2: it up, you consolidate it, and it was pretty much
16:03
Speaker 2: just these two areas. I was looking to thirty six
16:05
Speaker 2: hundred to see if we could hit the brakes at all.
16:07
Speaker 2: It was just straight through it and then ran up
16:09
Speaker 2: basically to the next major area here.
16:11
Speaker 3: So now we're going to cool off.
16:13
Speaker 2: And it was said that in that timeframe you had
16:15
Speaker 2: the rotation into bitcoin because as in the time we
16:18
Speaker 2: pulled back on gold like this five almost ten percent,
16:21
Speaker 2: which is actually pretty massive in that case, is when
16:24
Speaker 2: bitcoin pushed up to the one fourteen, So yeah, I mean,
16:28
Speaker 2: is that something, And it was equal eight to ten percent.
16:30
Speaker 2: Which is interesting is that an even split on you know,
16:34
Speaker 2: was everybody taking profits out of gold dumping in bitcoin,
16:37
Speaker 2: Like you said, it was just momentarily almost because bitcoin's
16:39
Speaker 2: already given up those gains. Personally, I think that this
16:42
Speaker 2: is just a natural move out of gold. We've you know,
16:45
Speaker 2: come up into a region of a next major Even
16:48
Speaker 2: though we're in price discovery, you could still anticipate areas
16:51
Speaker 2: where you're gonna hit the you know, get a little
16:53
Speaker 2: cool down. And what you want to see is this
16:55
Speaker 2: right here where we're actually pulling back, because now you
16:57
Speaker 2: can actually you know, present new and formation here on
17:00
Speaker 2: the next legs up. And generally speaking, when you have
17:03
Speaker 2: a huge move up like this very strong, you can
17:05
Speaker 2: see we've had no pullbacks basically along the way. You
17:08
Speaker 2: do pull back to that three eight two, and that's
17:10
Speaker 2: usually where I look to seek continuation, which is usually
17:13
Speaker 2: a shallower retlacement. Usually people will look for the gold
17:16
Speaker 2: pocket or anything like that. This is twenty eight but
17:18
Speaker 2: this three three a two, what we're coming into right
17:20
Speaker 2: now is just below four thousand, So it's nice right
17:24
Speaker 2: under that you know, psychological level where again people are
17:26
Speaker 2: already starting to kind of get worried that gold may
17:28
Speaker 2: have topped and everything of that nature. But realistically, to me,
17:31
Speaker 2: as long as we're holding above this region and even
17:34
Speaker 2: down to this area, I think that we still have
17:36
Speaker 2: legs and room to run this back up. The only
17:38
Speaker 2: thing we may see here is just similar to Bitcoin,
17:40
Speaker 2: you may get a little bit of a range here.
17:41
Speaker 2: So to Mike, I think of what Mike Novagrats's point
17:44
Speaker 2: right there, We're just we've come off of some really
17:47
Speaker 2: huge moves here, and then I think that's just the
17:49
Speaker 2: time where we're just going to cool off a bit
17:50
Speaker 2: before the next legs up.
17:51
Speaker 3: But I do anticipate both Gold.
17:54
Speaker 2: You know, Gold may not see extreme moves up from
17:56
Speaker 2: here like ten and twenty thousand dollars, but I think
17:58
Speaker 2: that we still have legs to the upside. And then Bitcoin,
18:01
Speaker 2: I think is going to make that next move up
18:02
Speaker 2: in twenty six as well.
18:04
Speaker 1: So in if you were calling twenty twenty six and
18:07
Speaker 1: let's assume that we don't see massive moves toward the
18:10
Speaker 1: end of the year, I'll go the my Novogratz side.
18:13
Speaker 1: Even though I think Tom Lee is intriguing in the
18:15
Speaker 1: sense that he's still calling for these crazy highs. If
18:18
Speaker 1: you look into twenty twenty six bitcoin and gold, do
18:21
Speaker 1: you have any potential projections for those.
18:25
Speaker 3: For next year? Yeah?
18:26
Speaker 2: For gold, Like again, it's all you know, determined on
18:31
Speaker 2: how we react right in this region, and I guess
18:33
Speaker 2: I would start to say that things start to not
18:35
Speaker 2: look so great as if we come back and get
18:37
Speaker 2: below thirty six hundred, and at that point I would
18:40
Speaker 2: say that you probably switch it into a little bit
18:42
Speaker 2: of a downtrend here.
18:43
Speaker 3: But as long as we're.
18:43
Speaker 2: Above that, I could see us pushing up to at
18:46
Speaker 2: least we're going to hit that forty four hundred mark.
18:48
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a no brainer at this point. But
18:50
Speaker 2: the way I would look at this too is I
18:52
Speaker 2: would just take a simple extension right here from that
18:54
Speaker 2: last impulse move and take it to our high Let's
18:57
Speaker 2: assume we get a bounce off of this three eight
18:59
Speaker 2: two around four thousand dollars, and then the next two
19:02
Speaker 2: that I could see again we'll probably kind of spend
19:04
Speaker 2: some time here too. I do think maybe the rest
19:06
Speaker 2: of this year, which again two months from now, not
19:10
Speaker 2: a lot of time, we probably do cool off a bit,
19:12
Speaker 2: and then the next leg up I only say into
19:15
Speaker 2: next year just because we're at a place where, you know,
19:17
Speaker 2: two months is not a lot of time to just
19:19
Speaker 2: kind of get eight weeks to see a cool off
19:21
Speaker 2: after a move like this and then into you know,
19:23
Speaker 2: the next coming months here push up to forty six
19:26
Speaker 2: and then ultimately five thousand, I think is a really
19:28
Speaker 2: big number for gold in the future.
19:30
Speaker 1: There, Okay, let's bitcoin, Yeah yeah, hit bitcoin real quick
19:35
Speaker 1: as far as twenty twenty six is concerned.
19:39
Speaker 2: So for bitcoin, the next move I'm looking at at
19:42
Speaker 2: a bitcoin is assuming that we come down in this
19:46
Speaker 2: one ninety seven same deal essentially is just really taking
19:49
Speaker 2: some looks at some just the next jount up. So
19:53
Speaker 2: taking this huge impulse move, projecting it off of where
19:57
Speaker 2: we may bottom out at the one sixty mark to
19:59
Speaker 2: two hundred is my projection for bitcoin in twenty twenty six.
20:03
Speaker 3: I just you know, again, I.
20:05
Speaker 2: Don't necessarily think we're going to get there this year.
20:07
Speaker 2: In the next two months, I think we're.
20:10
Speaker 3: Going to cool off a bit.
20:11
Speaker 2: And then in that same time though, I think that
20:13
Speaker 2: we have potential for the all coins. If we're going
20:15
Speaker 2: to have a rotation, I think it might head into bitcoin.
20:17
Speaker 2: I'm sorry Ethereum and some of the all coins, so
20:20
Speaker 2: I'm sure we're going to dive into some of those here.
20:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, speaking of those, let's talk about Solana real quick.
20:25
Speaker 1: They've got their Hong Kong approval, so this is the
20:28
Speaker 1: first spot ETF that is live, so we've got.
20:31
Speaker 3: That going on.
20:32
Speaker 1: You also look at in general their ETF now is
20:37
Speaker 1: paying a six to seven percent yield to holder. So
20:39
Speaker 1: this changes the I think dramatically into how people are
20:43
Speaker 1: looking at Solana in general. If you look at the
20:46
Speaker 1: Solana chart right now, where would this be a buye
20:50
Speaker 1: for Soul if we do go down and what do
20:54
Speaker 1: you think we're going to see on Solana by year end.
20:59
Speaker 3: By year? And let's take a peek.
21:01
Speaker 2: So one setup that I've been monitoring for the better
21:06
Speaker 2: part of this year, so from August of last year
21:08
Speaker 2: actually and then into April when we had the tariff.
21:10
Speaker 3: Bottom brought this up a few.
21:11
Speaker 2: Times already was this setup where one ninety six was
21:15
Speaker 2: a crucial level to hold above and we were discussing
21:18
Speaker 2: how the you know, the SPOTTYTF and some of the
21:20
Speaker 2: volume that was coming into Solana really added to the
21:23
Speaker 2: to the idea here that we would see that next
21:25
Speaker 2: jount up because as long as you're holding above one
21:27
Speaker 2: ninety six. I imagine that we would push up probability
21:30
Speaker 2: wise to two seventy four and three twenty three. Only
21:33
Speaker 2: issue here, technically speaking, is that we've now lost that
21:36
Speaker 2: one ninety six, not a death sentence by any means,
21:39
Speaker 2: probably could come back down towards you know, some lower
21:41
Speaker 2: areas if you're looking for that, you know, like you
21:43
Speaker 2: just mentioned a by zone, I would say probably back
21:46
Speaker 2: to like one p fifty on Solana. It's still something
21:50
Speaker 2: to just kind of be aware of, is that we're
21:52
Speaker 2: up fifty percent even at that point from earlier this year.
21:55
Speaker 2: So it's just something that depends on whoever, however your
21:58
Speaker 2: entry and you know you're investing strat as he goes.
22:00
Speaker 2: But I still ultimately imagine we're going to see a
22:02
Speaker 2: push towards this two seventy four and three twenty three
22:05
Speaker 2: on Solona.
22:06
Speaker 3: And I'll go ahead to even just say probably by
22:09
Speaker 3: the end of the year.
22:10
Speaker 2: We'll give it that, you know, the fun two month
22:12
Speaker 2: marker from here and see how it ends all right.
22:14
Speaker 1: There you go, Well, listen, that would be a pretty
22:17
Speaker 1: significant move for Soul trading at one eighty two right now,
22:21
Speaker 1: and in general, our our sentiment metrics are not very
22:24
Speaker 1: positive on Solona right now with money flow coming out,
22:26
Speaker 1: So that's a big deal. Let's get into further into
22:31
Speaker 1: this because I want to jump over to Ethereum real quick.
22:33
Speaker 1: A lot of good news for Ethereum if you think
22:35
Speaker 1: about it, eth now adoption compounding, you got Shopify now
22:40
Speaker 1: supporting the stripe rolled out stable coins, Robin Hood's announcing
22:44
Speaker 1: their Arbitram move with their their l two, You've got
22:48
Speaker 1: van Ak going in with an ETHERTF for stake, and
22:52
Speaker 1: you got Walmart saying, hey, that's all right, we're going
22:54
Speaker 1: to take some Ethereum on this thing in terms of payment.
22:57
Speaker 1: So very bullish for Ethereum. Why aren't we seeing the
23:00
Speaker 1: chart move here, Paul? What's going on?
23:05
Speaker 2: That's always the question, right, Yeah, So I always point
23:09
Speaker 2: this out, even with Soilana. Right now, right, we just
23:11
Speaker 2: got that big ETF news, which you know, it's not
23:15
Speaker 2: to say that it wouldn't be a bigger ETF if
23:17
Speaker 2: we got it here in the States, but big news there,
23:20
Speaker 2: and it seems like nothing kind of came out of
23:22
Speaker 2: the price action short term. If you think back to
23:24
Speaker 2: even when we got Ethereum's first news of ETFs and
23:27
Speaker 2: everything back.
23:28
Speaker 3: In twenty four I think it was like baytime.
23:30
Speaker 2: That was literally it was slow, and we actually crashed
23:33
Speaker 2: fifty percent from the high from the day that the
23:35
Speaker 2: ETF got listed, you know, at some point beforehand, so
23:38
Speaker 2: you know, it's not always an immediate you know piece
23:42
Speaker 2: that that that ties in with the technicals there. And
23:44
Speaker 2: actually I usually go against the herd a little bit
23:46
Speaker 2: when we hit the big news events, at least the
23:48
Speaker 2: short term, because a lot of times that occurs.
23:50
Speaker 3: But for ETH, I just.
23:52
Speaker 2: Wanted to kind of highlight again one of the biggest
23:53
Speaker 2: reasons that I'm a huge ETH bowl. I wish that
23:57
Speaker 2: it was a little bit more to tie this into
23:59
Speaker 2: all the old coins, but unfortunately they don't seem like
24:01
Speaker 2: they're having the same result. But we had this humongous
24:05
Speaker 2: this is back from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty five,
24:08
Speaker 2: huge reversal setup that I've been tracking, or had been tracking,
24:11
Speaker 2: especially since twenty twenty three. I had targeted the completion
24:15
Speaker 2: that come in here. So blah blah blah, big big
24:18
Speaker 2: zone for this to come into again, this is major
24:21
Speaker 2: time for him. So we're talking ups and downs along
24:24
Speaker 2: the way. Even since we you know, pushed off that low.
24:26
Speaker 2: There's been several times where we've seen corrections and everything
24:29
Speaker 2: along the way, but in this case, we're showcasing ETH
24:32
Speaker 2: outperforming Bitcoin in the you know, short term. Here the
24:37
Speaker 2: two major areas I'm looking for, which the big one
24:39
Speaker 2: being up in this region at point zero six. I'm
24:42
Speaker 2: targeting for that to continue from where we are to
24:45
Speaker 2: get to throughout the year of twenty twenty six. So
24:47
Speaker 2: another reason that twenty twenty six to me has had
24:50
Speaker 2: some malishists behind it for the crypto market. I don't
24:53
Speaker 2: imagine that ETH would be the only thing pushing up
24:55
Speaker 2: if we were. So currently we're bouncing off of some support.
24:59
Speaker 2: I think that we had some again, we're cooling off
25:01
Speaker 2: a little bit from that last liquidation piece and have
25:04
Speaker 2: the room to move back up into this region here.
25:06
Speaker 3: So with all the good.
25:07
Speaker 2: News around it, I do think that it's something that
25:09
Speaker 2: will start to click in. And when we look at
25:11
Speaker 2: the actual ETH chart, I think that we were looking
25:15
Speaker 2: at this last time, but I cleaned it up so
25:17
Speaker 2: it's a little bit more just kind of clear, and
25:21
Speaker 2: this would be how I'd gauge how ETH is going
25:24
Speaker 2: to be doing for the next few months. Here we
25:26
Speaker 2: pushed up again off of this really big drop, the
25:29
Speaker 2: fourteen hundred, and you know the tariff woes earlier this year,
25:32
Speaker 2: big push up, just similar to what we're looking at
25:34
Speaker 2: with gold. You have some small pullbacks along the way,
25:37
Speaker 2: but ultimately it's just a straight line up towards the
25:39
Speaker 2: all time high. You then pull back to the three
25:42
Speaker 2: eight to two. So again you know, if you're looking
25:44
Speaker 2: for a deeper retlacement like that six to one eighth
25:46
Speaker 2: the gold pocket, at least for now we're holding above it,
25:49
Speaker 2: and a lot of times you'll seek out that continuation
25:52
Speaker 2: from there. So we're sitting on that really big level.
25:54
Speaker 2: I think we discussed thirty three hundred was the big
25:56
Speaker 2: by zone I would consider back on the last on
26:00
Speaker 2: the last video, I think we went to thirty four
26:02
Speaker 2: on the drop, which wasn't the way I drew it up,
26:04
Speaker 2: so to be fair, I thought we'd go higher first
26:05
Speaker 2: before we dropped like that. But anyways, we're holding this
26:08
Speaker 2: level as long as we're above thirty six hundred. I
26:10
Speaker 2: think we're consolidating here for ethereum, and the push up
26:13
Speaker 2: and the timing I'm getting off of this, by the way,
26:15
Speaker 2: is just by measuring out this last impulse again utilizing
26:18
Speaker 2: some fifth times. It's not perfect, not overly married to it,
26:21
Speaker 2: but this is what we could see here, these target
26:25
Speaker 2: areas coming in around this timeframe, so within like the
26:27
Speaker 2: next ninety days, and it does go up to seven thousand,
26:30
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't overlook the fifty six hundred, you know,
26:32
Speaker 2: which would be a great move new all time highs
26:34
Speaker 2: out of eth and in that time frame, it would
26:37
Speaker 2: be under the idea that Bitcoin's actually remaining range bound
26:40
Speaker 2: within that hundred, one hundred and twenty thousand dollars.
26:43
Speaker 1: So let's jump over to Avalanche because this is one
26:47
Speaker 1: that I think a lot of people follow on our channel,
26:50
Speaker 1: and has Avalanche underperformed on this cycle so far? This
26:54
Speaker 1: is Emmon talking about the fact that they were up
26:57
Speaker 1: during this Amazon issue. And if you kind of compare this,
27:00
Speaker 1: there's the operational status of everyone during the AWS cloud outage,
27:08
Speaker 1: which is Salona, Avalanche, eh all stayed moderately to high resilience.
27:14
Speaker 1: What about AVAX right now? Is it underperformed or are
27:17
Speaker 1: you expecting anything from it?
27:21
Speaker 2: So I think that Avalanche, there's many things I feel like,
27:24
Speaker 2: you know, it's a lot of the all coins have
27:26
Speaker 2: just been so range bound. And one thing that I
27:30
Speaker 2: always like to point out, you know, when we hop
27:32
Speaker 2: on that we have on these collaborations together, Paul, A
27:36
Speaker 2: lot of times it depends on what's going on the
27:38
Speaker 2: timing of things, because sometimes you'll hit me with what
27:40
Speaker 2: would I buy today? Right, And just a few weeks
27:42
Speaker 2: ago we were trading with Avalanche up here at twenty
27:45
Speaker 2: seven dollars and it was already up you know, sixty
27:49
Speaker 2: seven percent of the time. We had that liquidation event
27:51
Speaker 2: that came down and you could look across and some
27:55
Speaker 2: you know, well, well many didn't see it coming.
27:56
Speaker 3: It's just one of those things. I feel like we
27:58
Speaker 3: have to always be prepared for this.
27:59
Speaker 2: About the third one, and by the way, we've seen
28:00
Speaker 2: them last year and a half March of last year,
28:04
Speaker 2: I think that February of this year, and then just
28:06
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks back and now where you have
28:07
Speaker 2: those big liquidation events in the all coins. But for Avalanche,
28:10
Speaker 2: we had this one level down here that I'd marked
28:13
Speaker 2: out and essentially we left it for this whole time,
28:16
Speaker 2: and by no means was it something that you could
28:18
Speaker 2: guarantee we get to. But it's an area you just
28:20
Speaker 2: if you're looking for those stink bids, or if something
28:23
Speaker 2: ever crashed, or if you're looking to deploy capital into
28:26
Speaker 2: something that's already up sixty percent, you's always got to
28:28
Speaker 2: be aware that we could always come down to these
28:30
Speaker 2: lower areas. So it's always a good idea. I'm just
28:33
Speaker 2: kind of rambling here on the little investing strategy. But
28:36
Speaker 2: if you ever come into something that's already up, even
28:38
Speaker 2: if we have more upside to go, you can always,
28:40
Speaker 2: you know, keep a little bit on the side for
28:42
Speaker 2: those big pullbacks, those big red days, which is what
28:44
Speaker 2: I always tend to do. But to answer the question
28:47
Speaker 2: on has Avalanche underperformed, I mean it definitely has in
28:51
Speaker 2: the case of looking at others in the realm of like, okay,
28:55
Speaker 2: you know xrps of five hundred percent versus this or whatever.
28:59
Speaker 2: But overall the whole, I think it looks pretty much
29:01
Speaker 2: like this. Right, We've pretty much had a nice Bitcoin run.
29:04
Speaker 2: The all coins as a whole are pretty range bound
29:06
Speaker 2: at the moment and can see a sizeable move if
29:09
Speaker 2: we get going here. It just depends on getting out
29:11
Speaker 2: of here. So we're back in the range yet again,
29:14
Speaker 2: and just yeah, I still foresee a really decent break
29:17
Speaker 2: for Avalanche and a move back to some of these
29:19
Speaker 2: key levels. It's littered with targets above it, and again,
29:22
Speaker 2: Avalanche is not something that's just there's not something that's
29:25
Speaker 2: just a run of the mill all coin. This is
29:27
Speaker 2: something that has real use case utility. It has an
29:30
Speaker 2: actual product that's online and as you stated, you know
29:33
Speaker 2: is staying online against the AWS issues. So I think
29:36
Speaker 2: it's just something that again is just in an accumulation
29:39
Speaker 2: zone and just got to be patient with it.
29:42
Speaker 4: Okay.
29:42
Speaker 1: A couple other things I want to get on before
29:44
Speaker 1: we get out of here is one, of course, Robinhood
29:47
Speaker 1: just listed B and B, so we saw a pretty
29:50
Speaker 1: significant downturn on B and B in general after they
29:54
Speaker 1: flipped XRP in terms of market cap, though XRP now
29:58
Speaker 1: has clawed its way back with then striking distance again.
30:02
Speaker 1: If you were looking at B and B, is this
30:03
Speaker 1: a buy right now? Or would you pass on this one?
30:08
Speaker 2: Personally, it's it's it's a pass on to me just
30:12
Speaker 2: because I don't love if again, if I'm deploying brand
30:15
Speaker 2: new capital to day, I don't love to chase something
30:17
Speaker 2: that's basically breaking out into new all time highs. The
30:20
Speaker 2: only thing about that is a lot of times that
30:22
Speaker 2: is what gains the momentum though, right, You know, you
30:24
Speaker 2: could argue the same thing against golden Bitcoin recently, where
30:27
Speaker 2: if you didn't buy it at the breakout just because
30:29
Speaker 2: it was the highest thing on the market that day,
30:31
Speaker 2: you know, you're still lost out on that move. So
30:33
Speaker 2: it just again comes into your own personal you know,
30:36
Speaker 2: investing outlook there. But for me, yeah, this is coming
30:39
Speaker 2: into big, big targets. We got the cool down. And
30:42
Speaker 2: the only thing about B and B that I will
30:44
Speaker 2: say is that last you know alt coin rally essentially
30:48
Speaker 2: so January of twenty twenty one, right before we had
30:50
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty one you know, huge bull run.
30:53
Speaker 3: It was the first mover.
30:54
Speaker 2: If I recall could I could be wrong, so I
30:56
Speaker 2: don't overly quote that, but I am pretty sure this
30:59
Speaker 2: was one of the first movers and went from like
31:00
Speaker 2: seven dollars to you know, like seventy really quickly, and
31:03
Speaker 2: then of course it ran up to seven hundred. And
31:05
Speaker 2: the reason I remember that is because I remember looking
31:06
Speaker 2: at it at seven and being like, wow, I missed
31:09
Speaker 2: one hundred x opportunity if I didn't just go all
31:11
Speaker 2: in on that.
31:11
Speaker 3: Point, but it was a really big mover there as
31:15
Speaker 3: a starting mover.
31:16
Speaker 2: So to see this again basically being you know, one
31:19
Speaker 2: of the biggest breakouts of an all time high. You know,
31:22
Speaker 2: we had XRP push up recently, but it's already back
31:24
Speaker 2: below that all time high. This is the true blue
31:27
Speaker 2: break that I can think of, at least, or at
31:29
Speaker 2: least one of them of the big majors that has
31:31
Speaker 2: broken the all time high and remained above and in
31:33
Speaker 2: the previous session, that's what initiated that last all coin run.
31:37
Speaker 3: So it's interesting.
31:38
Speaker 2: I think it does have some more upside ahead of it,
31:40
Speaker 2: but I would it probably wouldn't be my first choice
31:43
Speaker 2: because of where it's already at.
31:46
Speaker 1: Listen, we're talking about trying to rotate into defensive positions.
31:50
Speaker 1: Some people are kind of going into that. Let me
31:52
Speaker 1: play a clip for you and then I want to
31:53
Speaker 1: get your opinion on whether you would hold all coins
31:57
Speaker 1: right now or try to position out. Take a look.
32:00
Speaker 7: Do you have concerns about overconcentration If you really look
32:03
Speaker 7: at some of the big AI companies, it's about a
32:04
Speaker 7: third of the market, like the mag seven. Is that
32:06
Speaker 7: concentration concerning as we still have a lot of their
32:09
Speaker 7: earnings coming up, including Tesla after the bill.
32:11
Speaker 8: Absolutely, and one of the things we do agree is
32:14
Speaker 8: that the market is expensive, particularly when you look at
32:17
Speaker 8: those top companies, and so a little rotation taking some
32:21
Speaker 8: of the money off the top, putting it in some
32:23
Speaker 8: more defensives is probably a good bed at this point.
32:27
Speaker 7: So your word of the day is actually defense. Yes,
32:29
Speaker 7: so you're saying you want to be defensive, But how
32:31
Speaker 7: do you get defensive? Is it goal which just had
32:33
Speaker 7: a big pullback yesterday? Is it bonds? I was actually
32:35
Speaker 7: talking to a very notable investor. They believe that bonds
32:38
Speaker 7: are relatively cheap and that it's a short term trade.
32:40
Speaker 7: Actually you buy the bonds now, and they expect the
32:42
Speaker 7: par value to go up quite a bit as we
32:44
Speaker 7: continue to see more economic uncertainty. Which way should you
32:46
Speaker 7: play defense?
32:47
Speaker 8: So for me, I'm talking defense just within the equities world.
32:51
Speaker 8: I actually I do agree on the fixed income side,
32:53
Speaker 8: but for here, I'm talking about shifting out of some
32:56
Speaker 8: of the more expensive high flyers your mag seven and
32:59
Speaker 8: look at for healthcare telecom specifically to really get a
33:04
Speaker 8: little more oops as we go into this earning season
33:07
Speaker 8: and into twenty twenty six.
33:10
Speaker 1: All right, So my question here, Paul, is how do
33:12
Speaker 1: you play defense with crypto if you're looking at the
33:16
Speaker 1: current market as this is right now, we've got ethan
33:19
Speaker 1: bitcoin retracing. What are the defensive positions in terms of
33:24
Speaker 1: tokens during these markets? Staking go the ETF route if
33:29
Speaker 1: you want exposure top ten, staying there or just piling
33:33
Speaker 1: into bitcoin and eath.
33:37
Speaker 2: You know, the contrarian side of me at the moment,
33:40
Speaker 2: just because of how beaten down the sentiment is on
33:43
Speaker 2: all coins and the fact that I think everybody is
33:46
Speaker 2: just really really a not even just giving up on them,
33:48
Speaker 2: but afraid of them at this point. And for good measure, Yeah,
33:53
Speaker 2: I don't know. I just feel like, you know, you
33:54
Speaker 2: asked if I would hold all coins, and my portfolio
33:58
Speaker 2: is heavily based within bitcoin, but it's more so ethereum.
34:02
Speaker 2: As far as the all coin route would go, I'm
34:03
Speaker 2: probably in the all coin world like ninety percent eth
34:06
Speaker 2: and then I have ten percent that I do allocate
34:08
Speaker 2: towards other all coins that you know, can they go
34:11
Speaker 2: to zero?
34:11
Speaker 3: That's just the risk we all take.
34:12
Speaker 2: But it's it's just the allocation that you know, I
34:14
Speaker 2: feel comfortable with and when I look at all coins
34:18
Speaker 2: and I guess to back it up before get into
34:20
Speaker 2: the chart here, but the defensive outlook right, it's like
34:24
Speaker 2: there's nothing that's I guess not to confuse defensive with
34:27
Speaker 2: safe for some of these aults, because obviously these are
34:29
Speaker 2: things that we can't really you control one hundred percent.
34:32
Speaker 2: I would always, you know, immediately, i'd state things such
34:35
Speaker 2: as you know Ethereum, Solana Avalanche, even XRP Cardono, while
34:41
Speaker 2: you know, some of those ones have been around for
34:43
Speaker 2: so long and that's kind of the to me, the
34:44
Speaker 2: more defensive plays that they've survived already multiple you know,
34:48
Speaker 2: down poles. Granted, the percentage that they're going to go
34:52
Speaker 2: down is is still there, so to protect yourself against that.
34:54
Speaker 2: I feel like bitcoin is always going to be the
34:56
Speaker 2: main hedge because whatever, you know, Bitcoin's definitely going to
34:59
Speaker 2: follow the least of the the rest.
35:00
Speaker 3: Of the market.
35:01
Speaker 2: But if you have to be in your all coins,
35:03
Speaker 2: if you're looking for those, then yeah, I feel like
35:05
Speaker 2: the safe bet is the top ten or twenty. But
35:07
Speaker 2: when I look at the alt coin market here, Paul,
35:09
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be honest with you, there was something I
35:12
Speaker 2: pointed out a few months back, and it was I
35:14
Speaker 2: joke about it because it was one of those things
35:16
Speaker 2: it was before it was cool, which was this cup
35:18
Speaker 2: and handle, all right, and everybody's pretty familiar with that
35:21
Speaker 2: where you get the nice rounded shape and you get
35:23
Speaker 2: the handle here, and then you look for that breakout
35:26
Speaker 2: and everybody gets really excited. Usually at the breakout, you know,
35:29
Speaker 2: I'd identified this area when we came back down. This
35:32
Speaker 2: was again the tariff flows, so that's when I got
35:35
Speaker 2: the majority of you know, my pickups for this year
35:38
Speaker 2: at least, and then just looking for the next size
35:40
Speaker 2: was to get the above that level here. But one
35:42
Speaker 2: thing that happens at these almost every time that initial
35:45
Speaker 2: push up is that it always is a fake out.
35:48
Speaker 2: And what we had right here at the high was
35:50
Speaker 2: and again for anybody looking at the total two markets,
35:53
Speaker 2: so this is everything in the market except for bitcoin,
35:55
Speaker 2: to kind of help to identify which way the all
35:58
Speaker 2: coins as a whole could go here, And like B
36:00
Speaker 2: and B and ETH, pushing up twenty and thirty percent
36:03
Speaker 2: by all means does drag this up alone. But overall
36:07
Speaker 2: I'd say that if we're holding above this one point
36:09
Speaker 2: three three trillion for the all coins, I still see
36:12
Speaker 2: a world where the all coins could see a decent
36:14
Speaker 2: move up. Now it might not be them all, but yeah,
36:18
Speaker 2: it's just to me, it's this doesn't look that bad.
36:21
Speaker 2: And what we had here too at the end here
36:22
Speaker 2: was a harmonic setup. So again one of those just
36:26
Speaker 2: Fibonacci just perfectly where we had this old Fibonacci swee
36:31
Speaker 2: sequence right here. You come up and you fake everybody
36:33
Speaker 2: out at the high and then right to the target
36:36
Speaker 2: areas here. So as long as we're holding above here, Paul,
36:38
Speaker 2: I think that we are still in a good shape
36:40
Speaker 2: for the overall all coin market to continue up. And
36:43
Speaker 2: again not to just go on the boat of like
36:46
Speaker 2: saying twenty twenty six and it's a super cycle or
36:50
Speaker 2: anything like that. It's just looking at the information at
36:52
Speaker 2: hand here, that's just where we're steamrolling into. And for me,
36:56
Speaker 2: with the twenty year cycle that I've been you know,
36:58
Speaker 2: basically on about for a long time, that completion zone
37:01
Speaker 2: of all markets that I've kind of targeted comes right
37:04
Speaker 2: in line with the end of next year, aka the
37:07
Speaker 2: beginning of twenty twenty seven, you know, is really big
37:09
Speaker 2: for me. So I really think that we have the
37:11
Speaker 2: opportunity here to just if people can be patient and
37:14
Speaker 2: kind of see how things shake out here, that the
37:16
Speaker 2: market actually may surprise us going into the next few months.
37:19
Speaker 1: Well, we're looking at current market cap at three point
37:21
Speaker 1: six trillion. You've got fear and greed holding at twenty
37:26
Speaker 1: nine right now, So to your point, earlier definitely much lower,
37:31
Speaker 1: and then all coin season way low on the chart
37:33
Speaker 1: again at twenty seven. So to your point, there interesting
37:39
Speaker 1: interesting times guys we have with in reality. I mean,
37:42
Speaker 1: there's still so much bullish news, but at the same time,
37:44
Speaker 1: there's so many headwinds coming from the macro side. I
37:47
Speaker 1: feel like it needates that and unfortunately negative news, you
37:51
Speaker 1: almost need double the positive news to kind of offset
37:54
Speaker 1: negative news because it's people I think in general are
37:57
Speaker 1: pessimistic by nature.
37:59
Speaker 3: I agree, instead of possaging and.
38:01
Speaker 1: Are trying to look at this on a bigger picture. Hey, listen,
38:04
Speaker 1: it's always fun having you on the show. We'll definitely
38:07
Speaker 1: have you back. Thanks for coming in today.
38:09
Speaker 3: We appreciate it. Paul. Thanks, Paul, have a good one,
38:12
Speaker 3: all right, see.
38:12
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38:17
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38:19
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38:21
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