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NFL Week 14 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book.
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  Speaker 1: at one eight eight nine, or visit one eight hundred
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at my co host Simon Hunter right now.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Professional Sports Better. Good morning, Simon? Is it a good
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: morning chat? Is it? It's not? Simon? It's Tuesday morning.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: As everyone knows, we're feeling sick today. Big Bills podcast here,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Big Bills podcasts so much to break down. We're not
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: going to spend too much time because I wonder what
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin would recommend we do. Last week was last week,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: This week was this week. Next week we'll be next week.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: We got to go through the full slate. We will
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: get to the Simon says better the week that you
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: gotta bet right away. We hit the Steelers last week.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about some Scooch Roulette. Big day for us, Simon.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, Tuesday morning, December seven, day that we'll live
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: in infamy. I'm driving to Philadelphia after this podcast, taking
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: my kid back to school for twenty four hours. You know,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: we had his broken leg. He's got to follow up
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: with the surgeon who did his leg surgery in Philadelphia.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: You and I are having dinner tonight. You and I
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: are hitting writtenhouse square and we're gonna light this ship up.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: You found one of the only British pubs in all
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: of Philadelphia, so I'm pretty impressed. Their fishing ships is good.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: But they make a legit unreal burger. So that's one
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: of the rare times I passed on the fishing ships
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and I go to the burger. You've been to this place.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm from Philly. Bro, Dude, We're hitting the Dandelion.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: We're gonna love it. All we're gonna do is celebrate
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: our friendship and our love for each other. We are
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: not going to celebrate the Buffalo Bills. We are not
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: going to celebrate the Denver Broncos. We are not going
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: to celebrate the Chicago Bears. I wish we were celebrating
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. So recap for everybody. Simon, Simon Hunter
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: and I for a month had been the best betters
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: in the world, four and one in our best five,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: four and one our best five, three and two in
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: our best five. This weekend we went two and three
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning. We love the Steelers, spot on, We love
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: the Chargers generally spot on. They tried to throw it away.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: We had talked all week about the Lions, then on
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning we chickened out. I don't know why we
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: went with the Bears. I very specifically remember saying if
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the Bears lose, this is on you, so congrats. We
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: went with the Broncos, which you know was a coin
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: flip nine. It was a nine and a half ten
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: and a half point spread the Bills game last night,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: and I'm sorry to even have to spend two minutes
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: on it because Matt Mitchell was the biggest Bills fan.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: We know that was a gut punch that was awful.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And I'm not a big social media person regardless, but
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: apparently I follow a lot of Patriots fans, so it's awful.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, you don't know what it's like, but when
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: you're single, you're not in love, seeing people in love,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: seeing them share pictures of their kids, it makes you sick,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: it really does. You're just like, fuck you and your happiness.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: It's one of those That's why I felt with the
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Patriots last night. All these pads fans, how how would
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: you take the Bills? Like what? What an idiot? All
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: this stuff, and it's just like, all right, you got me.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: You guys have won seventh straight, your QB through it
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: two times and you want so it's you just gotta
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: swallow and move on to the next week. Because they're
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: right that that was That was the typical You just
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: play the number. You kind of don't think about the teams.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: And I know, I don't know if you watched the
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: little game. I knew it was gonna happen in there.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: The Bills were gonna score, and they were gonna kneel
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: on that two point. I mean, it's like kicking extra point.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: They're gonna neel it down. So I kind of had
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: a false hope we're gonna cover the number two and
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a half three, but we knew, we knew it was
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: a dead number. Kind of yeah, you're right about that.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: If if we're getting into two and a half, which
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: is what we were getting it at, it's an automatic
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: take to even we match teams playing at home, you
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: get them less than a field goal. You take that
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: team every single time, even in retrospect, we'd have to
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: do it again. I went to sleep. Midway through the
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: third quarter, I think the Patriots, for the thirty seventh
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: time in a row, ran the ball off tackle for
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: ten yards. The Bills acted like they had no idea
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: it was coming, couldn't tackle anybody, and I'm like, I'm done.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: I gotta drive for a long time tomorrow I'm ready.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, like you're right about Detroit. My whole thing
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: for Detroit was again, I mean you talked in the morning,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: we had Washington, we had Detroit, and we swapped them
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: out for Denver and the Bills that can that killed us.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So those are one of those Yeah, we we just
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: hate that when we we take we switched out too
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: easy winners for you know, primetime losses. It sucks losing
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: primetime games because it's just standalone. So it's just like extra,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: like uh, nothing, nothing to flip to. You just have
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: to sit there and watch it. But Detroit, that was
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I talked about it. If that line moved
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: the six and a half, that was gon a max
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: bet and unfortunately took a while to get there, so
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I didn't get as much money down as I wanted,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: just because again it's it's tough trying to get money
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: in at the last minute. With all these sports books
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: um in person, there's just a lot of people trying
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: to get their own bets, and so it is tough
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: trying to do that. But that Lions game that I
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: feel like, that's the pinnacle of our podcast. We we
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: we stayed away from the lines money line all year
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: and we just talked about it. It It was just that
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: perfect spot where you're getting the Kirk Cousins magic. Kirk
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: always always messes up in those games, and he did,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: and he did all right in the second half that
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: golf drive. Again, I feel like we used up all
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: of our luck. We had that last second win and
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: then we had a last second, straight up win with
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers. A lot of things went our way
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: and then it just flipped other way like that scoop
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: and score by Denver completely changed that game. They literally
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: hit the ball out of Kelsey's hands. Even Rabels tweeting
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: at the NFL being like, look at the rules, that's
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: that's a catch and fumble. Scoop and score by Denver.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: They flipped it. They said, it's not you know, no
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: regrets if you if you told me. The offense of
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Kansas City was only gonna score fifteen points, we'd probably
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: take Denver. I mean, that's that's just one of those positions.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So it's tough. But at the same time, we got
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: to move on to the next week. Right, we're on
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the Week four team. Also, we love the Falcons, and
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: that was that game. That game ended with a meaningless
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: kick in the final two minutes, like to go from
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: ten to thirteen. We had him at ten and a half.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I can't I can't argue with any of our handicaps
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: with this guy, Gauge. He dropped the ball in the
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: end zone the very end of the game that would
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: have hit the over and cover for Atlanta. That was seriously.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: The only thing I can be upset about is that
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: we took out those two teams, which, by the way,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: that's probably my fault. I think I remember very clearly
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: when we were going over to the final five, where
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: you're like, I want to put these two teams in.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I'm like, we didn't even talk about these teams all week.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Why would we put these teams in. We do this
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: every week. We take out the teams that we love
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: the entire week, and we put in teams that we
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: don't even talk about, of course, other than the Bears.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: You were right about everything else. H Well, guess what.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: We'll toast each other tonight and we'll, uh, you know,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: we probably don't even talk about betting. We'll probably talk
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: about life, talking about being in love, not being in love,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: the joys a Jesus Christ. Man, it's hard, and there's
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: an extra week of this ship this year. I wish
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: you never ended, man, I mean this this season was
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: so much fun, just the underdogs, the outright winners for
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: these underdogs. It's just been we went ever see this
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: ever again? Like you look at the n FC title
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: picture Patriots or what nine and four leading the way,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: it's yeah, it's just a wild time right now, all right.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings. Vikings about three three and
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: a half points depending on the book favorites. Money coming
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: in right now as we speak, money coming in on
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the Steelers. Big money just came in on the Steelers.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the network odds page. M it feels
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: like Kings there you go. Yeah, and like I hate
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: this game because there's no way I'm gonna make it
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: one of our five. But we we have to take
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: the Vikings here as long as it doesn't get above four.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: I think I've seen some books. Now minus three and
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: a half a little scary because we talk all the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: time about Tomlin as a dog, the greatest of all time,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: look at your work. But after such a huge emotional
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: win last week for Pittsburgh, any of the Vikings coming
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: off a huge loss on the road coming home, we
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: love we love Minnesota this position, so I'll be betting it.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Maybe we'll change my mood Thursday morning because I just
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: can't even think about putting the Vikings in right now,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: but we'll be on it, especially if it's at minus three.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: That's a great number to take with this Minnesota team
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: that we saw that was kind of Pittsburgh super Bowl.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: You're expecting to let down game, you're expecting to bounce
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: back from Minnesota. Don't ever think this when you just
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: take the home team here at minus three. Yeah, I
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: think that's exactly what it is. You bet on the
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: team that didn't cover the week before, you bet against
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the team that did cover the I wish, I wish
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: it was that easy, but yeah, there's a lot more
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: goes into it. Pretty much in the basics. Yeah, that's
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: that's a perfect way of put in mixed case, that's
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: kind of what it is. Yeah, a little bit. Meanwhile,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the Ravens, who are now down Marlon Humphries, they have
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: looked inconsistent and challenged on offense all year. They really
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: don't have any running backs. Uh, They're on the road,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns. The Browns are very short
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: home favorites. The Browns are two point home favorites right now.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Interesting line. We knew the public is gonna come and
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: have you on this Browns team, and the fact that
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: hasn't even moved the minus three makes me kind of
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: love the Ravens. I I origining, I was thinking myself, Okay,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: this would be a perfect time backs back this Brown's team.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: They lost this team six, then had a bye week.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Now you're getting them at home. You expect the Browns
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: team to play much better year. Everything I'm here in
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: the reports out of the Browns facility is they gave
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the whole team off and when they came back. Baker
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: has not his his his injuries the season. I mean,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be Len been, He's gonna be a little
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: off till the rest of the season. We're gonna wait
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: and see what the deal is with the old line
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: here for this Browns team. If they if they're they
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: had two starters out the game against the Ravens. That's
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: a big deal for this old line. They're they're one
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: of the best old line units. Their backups just aren't
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: as good as their starters. So sitting here on Tuesday,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I really do like the Ravens. So this is I
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: could see this be one of our bests, just in
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the simple fact that the line is finally catching up
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to them. Like last week we talked about they're overvalued.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: This is the right value for them. They should be
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: plus three plus two and a half. That's a good
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: number and divisional matchup we're getting. I know you can
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: say they're a banged up team. Everyone's talking about how
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: they've lost everyone, especially the quarnerback position, running back position,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: offensive line. They've just had major injuries. In this Ravens
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: team that we talked about, they're the most one of
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the more over rated number one seeds. We knew that
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: injuries are gonna catch up to them. I think the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Browns in the same position. They're they're not healthy either,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: just becomes they come up to buy what doesn't mean
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: they're healthy. Everything I've heard is they haven't really recover
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: from the injury. So if they're still down offensive linement
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: this Browns team and I need to take a more
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: beat up team and get points, I'll take the Ravens.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I'm happy to take it up plus three. When you
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: say everything you've heard, meaning, are you hearing things that
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not hearing? Are you reading things that I'm not reading? Yeah,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I've heard from a couple of different guys who talked
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to you know, people within the Browns organization that they
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: just a lot of players in team, like you know coaches,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a different bunch of different build lost faith in Baker.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: They feel like they love his toughness, there's no doubt
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: about that. But he's just up with your eying the
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: team right now. You can't say they wouldn't be better
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: without case Keenum in there. I mean, Baker cannot make
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: the throws he needs to make right now. And the
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: biggest thing with Baker was his mobility. He's a little guy,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: so you have to move around, get outside the pocket.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: You can't move right now. So I mean, obviously I
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: know about his arm injury. There's obviously something going on
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: his lower body as well. So just looking at from
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: that standpoint, from what I'm hearing from different guys who've
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: talked people in the organization, it feels like the Browns
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: are just in the wrong direction where this Ravens team,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I'm happy to back them off that kind of loss. There. Um,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: they're just a resilient team this year. We've seen it
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: all year, even in that game against Pittsburg, the fact
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: that they drove that whole field and had a chance
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: to win that game three very end. That's that's why
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: you like to take the Ravens. Whenever you're getting points
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: for this team, you don't really want to take him
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: as favorites. But when you're getting points, that's when you
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: take the Ravens. It's not Baker's fault. He's playing Kevin
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Stefancy could take him off the field and put case
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Keenan in. That's fair. I mean, that's also that's just
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: loyalty thing. Though. If like Bakers your number one quarterback,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: he says he's good enough to play, you let him play.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's kind of how it goes. He's
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: tied to these quarterbacks. I also love how John Harbaugh,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: when asked why he went for two, said, we don't
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: have any cornerbacks. We're done, like our team is cooked.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: We couldn't, we couldn't play over time. No, I'm I'm
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: with him though. That was that was crazy. They were
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: literally down to I think three corners Las Vegas Raiders
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: at Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs are nine point favorites here.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: This is a prose Joe's game right now, Right now,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I think I love the Raiders here. I don't nothing.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: You know, when we went into the Broncos Chiefs game,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: we were saying ourselves, the Chiefs can't cover big numbers.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: There's nothing from that game that makes me think they can,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: like nine, that that score is not reflective of what
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: I would look at in the box score. And that's
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: what you have to do, is a better You have
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: to look beyond the final score. To me, this still
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: feels like a Raider's play. Yeah, every little thing had
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to go right for the Chiefs cover that number. They
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: had the pick six, They had the twenty play, eleven
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: minute drive by Denver for zero points, which takes someone
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: posts the first time it happened. Since nothing's gonna change here, Well,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: we'll keep even if the public's riding again, We'll take
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the public dog and we'll take Las Vegas Raiders. Here
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: the autumn win is a raider pillaging just for fun.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: But man, what is wrong with the Chief's offense. It's
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: bizarre or Mahomes he doesn't know want to take a
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: little off the ball, and he keeps throwing these like
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: bullets at these players that they're not ready for it.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: It hits him in the hands of the chest pops
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: with any other team picks it. They keep having these
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: stupid turnovers. This this uh Chiefs team. So it's crazy
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: to think that they're five and one to win the
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl right now. So are the Patriots. It's a
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: wild time right now in the NFC. So I'm still
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: not there with this Chiefs team. That nothing. They haven't
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: done anything to really show me that they deserve to
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: be a nine and a half point favorite, eight and
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite against someone like this Las Vegas team.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I know you can say Las Vegas has done they've
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: given up on the season. I didn't think that at all.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I thought they played really hard against that Washington team
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: they're in at the entire game. I mean they're leading
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: to that last second field goal. So you know, I'll
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: it's scary because what would just happen with Denver. We
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: have to put that out of mind. We have to
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: move on to this week. This is just a smart number.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: We'll take Las Vegas here. I will tell you as is.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: As is often the case, I've mentioned this before. Tuesday mornings,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: it's not a workout there for me. I usually take
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit more time. I take the for a
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: walk and I'll be Putson around or whatever, and I'll
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: forget about things. I'll get into work, I'll respond to emails.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I got a very important job. I got a bunch
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: of meetings. Chad Millman is proud of himself. And then
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: I'll remember, oh ship we're doing in the podcast today.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Oh shit, this was a painful weekend that I have
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: to relive. And usually three or four games in, I'm
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: ready to roll, you know what I mean. And like
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: this Raiders Chiefs game, I look at it and I'm like,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: I see this. I don't think other people see it.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I see it. I see the Raiders being a team
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: that people want to jump off. They only see the
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: final score. I see people seeing the Chiefs winning by thirteen,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: thinking oh they're back, not looking at the sort of
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: inner workings of the game. I got a best five
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: right here? Wow, all right? I mean I can't argue
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: with it. What is the public does? Because that was
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: painful and Ravell said, the public goes all over Denver.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Me and you both are just like h we don't
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: like to hear that. I know, I know, I know.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Darren Ravel got me a really nice gift. He got
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: me a ticket to the YouTube concert for Joshua Tree
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: at Rosemond Horizon, in a concert that I missed because
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: my friends were going. I had tickets. I decided to
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: blow it off because my girlfriend at the time wanted
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: to go see a haunted house. It was Halloween weekend.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: We want to see the hunted house. We broke up
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: and my friends were on the news for starting the
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: wave at the YouTube concert. Thirty years later, Youtuo was
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: doing a Joshu which Re anniversary tour. I'm like, two
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: thousand seventeen is going to be the year. Yes, I'm
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: going to all these concerts. Two weeks before I go
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: to the concert, my Currents, the Presidents Turning Group, emails
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: me out of nowhere. I don't know the guy and says, hey,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: you want to have lunch in New York. Sometimes I'm like, listen,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be in San Francisco for the concert for
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: you too. Why don't we just have lunch that day.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: That was the first day he tasked me about what
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: would become Action Network, And so Darren brought me the
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: ticket to the YouTube concert from seven at Full Circle
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Full Circle. Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team. The Washington
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Football team four point dogs. Dude, got check time, Foxhole.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Let's climb down into the Foxhole foxhol You know it.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Even our fans knew. I had multiple messages They're like,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: how much do you love Washington four and a half?
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I was like, grab it now, grab that number right now.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I love it. This is a classic divisional matchup. Cowboys
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: still haven't looked right like that Saints team. It was
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: just bad in that game. That was the main reason
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Dallas got away with that. You can say, well, Dallas
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: come off extended rest. Washington is just on a crazy
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: winning streak right now. They what is it, four straight
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: wins and covers by Washington something like that. So, man,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: when when you're just looking at these two teams, on paper,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: I get it. I get why people love Dallas, but
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: this feels like the same situation. We were all over
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers when they came and played this team up
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: in Washington. You're getting a Dallas team that they like
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the indoor, they like the turf, you're getting out in
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: the grass. Now you have a Washington team that's played
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: much better. And it's even weirder is that they've played
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: better ever since Chase Young has gone down. Like you
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: look at their defensive numbers, They've really have jumped these
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. So it's hard not to take
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: in a divisional matchup, you take that plus four, but
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: you have to do it. You can't be taking Dallas
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: favorite on the road and this kind of matchup. So
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: this feels like this is for the season of Washington.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: If they win this game, they're gonna be probably be
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: a playoff team. So this is um this when these games,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: I'll be on the plus where I'll be on the
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: money line. I'll be back in this Washington team. Do
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: we worry at all the fact that they have one
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: four in a row, they have covered there's gonna be
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: a regression that we're getting them at the top of
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: the market. It is, but we tried to fade that regression.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Last week. We tried to fade the Cardinals, who are
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: I think six and on the road against the spread.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: We tried fading that didn't work. We tried to fade
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: the Patriots who were on a seven oh run. Didn't work.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna try to think about that stuff
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: too much. I'll just try to play the numbers here
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: and if if I'm getting above a three, which I
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: think this line should be, I'm happy to take that
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: plus four. We played the chart just regression pretty well.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's maybe that's the only regression. We thought there
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: would be a Miami regression, and we'll get ours. I mean,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: the best fade ever is gonna be if the Patriots
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: got the one seed, they're at home six point seven
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: point favorite against some crappy underdog team from the NFC,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: and we take that crappy underdog's moneyline just because it's
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be fading Mac Jones, a rookie in the playoffs.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: So we'll eventually get there. Just catching up to us
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: in the sense that I can't believe with the Patriots
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: doing I can't believe the cordinal is doing. I did
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: not see these two teams being where they're at come
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: this late in December. So that's one of those I'm
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: trying to adjust here on the fly because I'm clearly
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: not giving them either those teams enough credit. Next game,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are three point favorites.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: This is the ugly meeting the pathetic. No advantage here,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: and I thought that was a smart line by them
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: because they know that, like, like, I'm just gonna take
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the veteran quarterback around. I'm probably end up taking Matt
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Ryan on the road, giving me the points plus three
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half half against I don't know
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: who the quarterback is gonna be for Carolina. They just
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: fired their O C. They're talking about how they want
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: to run the ball more, even though McCaffrey's out for
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: the season. It's it's a lot of a lot of
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: bs going on right nowf Carolina. So I know Elana
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: led us all down last week. That's kind of why
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: you want to take them here. There's not gonna be
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: many people back in the Lanta taking the points, so
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: it feels a kind of a pro number you're taking Atlanta,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: and I'll be on it. But I don't love that
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: it sounded three. I wish it was still three and
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: a half. I'd feel way way more comfortable taking a
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: three and a half of this number. New Orleans Saints
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: at New York Jets. This is a wide discrepancy in
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: the number. It's at four and a half in some places,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: it's at six in others. If you can get the
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Jets plus six against the Saints, yeah, well right, we
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: have to do that. I don't want I don't want
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: to do it. It's so disgusting. But what the hell
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the Saints they have a broken handed quarterback and Taysom
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Hill or Trevor Simeon, which okay, we don't talk about enough.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: This guy's their third stringer, fourth stringer. So it's so
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: crazy looking on the schedule. The fact that the Saints
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: with Winston went beat the Patriots like they dominated them
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: up in New England in September, And now what would
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: that spread beef? The Saints went up to New England
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: right now minus nine, minus ten with these backup quarterbacks.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: So it's bad with the Saints the Jets, I thought,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Zack Wilson played well against the Eagles in the first half.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: I think that eighteen points. Second half completely to neck.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: He looked like he reverted back to being a rookie quarterback.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: So don't really know we're getting from Zack Wilson. It's
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: it's either hot or cold with that kid. He's either
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: got it or he just loses it completely. But at
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: six points plus six at home, well we'll take the Jets.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: But god, as this one gross. We know what's interesting.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Forget about the Patriots. Don't forget the Saints destroyed the
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Packers in Week one. Yeah, yeah, and they beat Tampa.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: It's bizarre. It's a bizarre year. It's a bizarre year.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: It's a totally bizarre year. And the seventeen week season
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: actually makes it feel like even more of a grind,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: even though we're like we're at the same point the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: season we would always be. They're just adding the week
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: at the end, but it feels like because we're a
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: week what is it fourteen and there's still four weeks
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: to go. Five this week, Yeah, Jesus, I love it.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: I mean that's what's funny, Like this is your job,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: but it's not. At the same time, a lot of
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: people like non prosyre, like, man, this isn't this season long?
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Isn't this grueling? It's like, no, this is the fucking
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: best man never end, keep it going. It's uh, it
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: feels like I'm getting a bonus week to make money.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: So to me, I love it. But the longest points
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: to me, always feels like when the weather turns so
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: like November, that when you kind of hit that midway point,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: you're just like, holy ship, we're only halfway up this mountain.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: We've gotta keep going. But now we're you know, in December,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: this is like playoff football, like that Pittsburgh Ravens game
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: that fell. The playoff football. That's that's my favorite time
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: of year, when it's like you're on the edge of
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: your seat and just sweating because you know every little
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: play now matters. Like Eagles fans, we were a static
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Detroit one because now we have a chance of getting
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: that seven spot in the playoffs, like we need the
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Vikings to lose. So that's the fun part now is
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: like you're Scott always the teams watching all these games
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: because you're trying to figu out how the hell it
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: affects your team making the playoffs. Scenario. Even though Eagles suck,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: I have zero five, they're gonna want a playoff game.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: I still want to get in, right, Yeah. Meanwhile, Bears
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: fans stink, can't keep the ball from being turned over,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: and we don't have a number one pick next year,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: so there's no even there's not even an upside. I'm losing.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, I forgot you guys traded that for fields.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah that's tough. Maybe no naggy though, that's the silver lining. Right.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: We'll see Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans. I cannot bet
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: on this Jaguars team. The line is eight and a half,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to nine and a half, so
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: you can get the Jaguars a plus nine and a half. God,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: apologize Matt Mitchell. I mean I saw his picks. I
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: saw he live money line the Jags like I did too.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: I was just I think it was like fourteen to
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: seven maybe the Rams, and I'm just like, the Rams
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: don't got it. This is gonna be a Jags come
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: back win. I was feeling good, especially at the Detroit win.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: God was that a bad read? Rams just shelack them,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: So you're dead right, I and make the people bet
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: this Jack's team. They just don't show life, and it's
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: hard to know what weeks they're gonna show up in
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: what weeks they don't. So I'm with you, we can
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: we can pass on this one. But Tennessee getting that
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: many points, it's it's weird and maybe that just says
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: more about the Jaguar team that they're that bad. But again,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: they just got Julio back. You know how much of
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: our difference he's really gonna make for this Titans team.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: But that's that's a big number. If you're back on
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: this team, the Titans is a favorite. Well, look, this
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: is not about the Titans at all. It's only about
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: the Jack just got blown out. The Titans in a
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: lot of people's mind are still an a f C contender,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: and the bookmakers are completely the public's psychosis here. Yeah,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: they moved to three points. I mean it opened six
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: and a half. They moved to nine and a half.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: So that's big movement. Maybe I'll be able to flip
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: you by Thursday. But as we're sitting here right now,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I get it, like some of that keeps losing money,
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars, I get it. Yet, Well, you know what
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: I didn't lose money in the Jaguars this week because
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: I didn't bet them. I didn't met the Jags. Also,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: we didn't bet the Texans, at least I didn't because
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: as I was sort of surveying the scene, there were
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: parts of me that felt, I know, I'm supposed to
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: play the big dogs in this spot. There was nothing
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: about that Texans game where I ever thought they had
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: a chance and they didn't. I mean they were they
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: were turning like the Colts were turning the ball over
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: and still ended up winning, you know, twenty to nothing
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: or whatever. So I never felt bad about that. Was
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: they do. I think I did like a seven team
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: round robin of all the home dogs and took all
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: their money lines. I think only Detroit and Pittsburgh hit
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: like Atlanta got blown out. I mean everyone just got all.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: It was a big It was a big week for
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: the favorites. Honestly, it was a good week for Chalk
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: better so other than the vikings, like everyone's teasers came through.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: And now a word from our friends at FanDuel. The
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• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show. Here's a number, speaking
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: of the Texans that we're going to have to think about.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks at Houston, Texans Seattle big win this past
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: weekend is three and a half point dogs to the Niners.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Classic Pete Carroll's spot to cover, Classic Cayle Shanahan spot
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: to not cover the Seahawks seven and a half point
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: favorites on the road and this number is climbing. Yeah,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: that was my worst miss of last week. I got
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of ship from a lot of pros I
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: knows for being all over forty, all over the under,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: and they're just saying, man, you are the public. You
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: were such the public. Better right now? It's like, what
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: am I missing there? Like Seahawks in the over? You
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: gotta take it. Man. When they when they did that
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: fake punt, I think they took it like seventy yards. Yeah.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I was just like, okay, okay, this is a this
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: is a big mistake. So that was a perfect spot
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: to take the Seahawks. It's the perfect spot to fade them.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: I hate betting on Houston. I hate backing a quarterback
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: that I have no faith in in this Houston team,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: But big number. I think there's some crazy stat out there.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: The team's playing the forty Niners one in eleven. Now,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: straight up the flying weekend Guess who last week played
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: the Niners a week before Minnesota Vikings? Who lost to Detroit.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: So if we want to keep riding that crazy trend
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: that these teams when they play the four nine ers,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: they they're bad. The next week, play it, play Houston.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: If that's the reason you need. That's my favorite weird
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: trend of the year so far is that teams that
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: play the four nine ers are one in eleven the
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: following week straight up. That's that's a bizarre stat that
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: just feels totally random. Totally, but I mean, Detroit won
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: last week. Nothing makes sense this year, but that does
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the fact that the Vikings played the four nineers and
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: then lost. It's all weird chat. I don't know, I
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: just love that stat. I just kind of blew my mind.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: I'm just looking at this thinking, all of a sudden,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: people are betting on Russell Wilson and it's an opportunity
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: to take advantage. Yeah, and it's also that who the
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: hell are the Seahawks be favored by seven and a
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: half points exactly. That's that's the I'm just I just
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: do that trend out there because I thought it was
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: really interesting that it's kind of been there. It's yeah,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: it's been a wonky year. That's a that's a weird
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: trend to hear about, like why would that affect is
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: playing the four Niners? But yeah, you just said it
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: on seven and a half. We'll keep waiting though, like
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: I would love to make this assignment, says play, it's
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: not worth taking right now. Just keep waiting. Maybe on Thursday,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: this will be eight and a half nine because we
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: know who the quarterback would be for Houston. You know
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: what's fun. We're having dinner at night. I know I
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: can't wait, and you put it in at seven thirty.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: I literally go to bed at seven, So that's gonna
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: be really fun. Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos. Broncos are
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: seven and a half point home favorites. All right, can
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I give you my opinion on this game? Yeah, smash
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: the Broncos really Denver Broncos. Wow. So this is my
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: favorite thing to do is we did it last year
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: the Jets, and if you remember, the Jets had their
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: first win, then they came home, so that the Jets
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: had San Daran's quarterback. They beat the Rams last year,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: then they came home and we were all in on
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: them beating might have been Tennessee at home. I forget honestly,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: who it was, but I liked it. Back these teams
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: after their first win, like, I like to think they
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: can keep caring the momentum. Whe other people are like,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: oh that was a super Bowl. They're gonna be a
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: huge leftdown game the next week Denver. You know, they
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: just got blown out, they just got dominated. I can't
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: be letting Teddy Bridgewater lay that many points. Okay, it's
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: painful to do this right now, but I'm gonna be
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: taking to Troit. I'll probably be taking de Troits money
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: line once again. Hello Detroit, all about situation value. Had
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: this line of four and a half. They're giving me
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: three and a half, four and four points towards the number. Man,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I hate to do, but I have to take the
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: lines once again. I have to take their money line again.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: I know, but you look at the Broncos and the
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: defense gave up fifteen points. The Broncos should have won
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: that game. Yeah, you can do any kind of sort
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: of transitive property replacement Matthew want, but think about that
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: play drive with nothing, think about the scoop and score
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: everything more to anything that's ten points right there. My
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: biggest thing reason for liking Detroit here is the best
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: thing Denver does is shut down a passing offense. They
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: run two high safeties. That's why they're so good against
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: the pass, and they're just shipped against the run. Detroit
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: doesn't want to pass the ball, they want to run
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the ball. They like little short dump offs. That's the
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: perfect scheme against Vanjio. So it's kind of a matchup
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: of schemes here where when That's why we like Banjo
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: against the Chiefs. He can shut down that offense, which
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: he did, he just didn't get the points from his offense.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Looking from here to Detroit, doesn't feel like we're gonna
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: need much if we get, you know, a touchdown, a
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: field goal. I can only see Denver putting up seventeen
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: to twenty points on this defense in Detroit. The Traites
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: defense has been improving every week that they've played. So
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I get where you're coming from. Like
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: we're literally buying high and selling low on this Denver team.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Like this is kind of when you want to come
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: in to Denver. So maybe hold off. I'll see what
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: the public can do this number. But the way I
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: see it right now, if you're getting the eight points,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: it's it's hard not to take this Detroit team. Are
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: you saying this is? Simon says, no, that's gonna be
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: when our last team to talk about once again, New
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers. This is a huge number.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know what bookmakers are thinking here. This feels
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: too way too easy, Like the Giants feel like an
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: auto play. Yeah right, they really do. Giants can run
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: the ball, Chargers can't really stop the run. Ten points
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: after a big blowout win for this Chargers team. Too many,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: too many, so of course, yeah we love like I
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: was gonna make this time and says bet too. But again,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: I think this line is gonna go up. I just
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: see this line going up more because you know who's
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: betting the Giants this week other than us, Like the
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: only professionals are gonna put the money on this Giants team.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: They could not move the ball at all against that
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Miami team, and that was a brutal note cover, especially
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: someone like me. I hit that three, three and a half,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: four and a half, five and a half, six and
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: a half seven, and I mean I had way too
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: much money invest in that Giants team. The laid such
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: a huge jag. Gotta gotta bet on the bounce back
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: this week on the road ten a half points against
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: the Chargers team that we think they're good, good, we
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: think there are overvalued of course, like them letting the
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals come back. That's this Chargers team that they
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: just don't have. I don't even describe. They don't have
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: the coaching yet maybe or whatever it is. They're just
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: not They're just not built yet to be a ten
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: point favorite team. They're not one of these top tier
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: teams in the whole NFL. So well, we'll take the Giants.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Will just wait and still you can get even better number.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: The Giants are another one. The Falcons, the Giants, the Broncos.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: They all had shots to win that game, very good
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: shots to cover. It was one fluky play, one moment
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: from not covering. Oh yeah, I mean that's what we
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: talked about the Detroit Pittsburgh wins. That's the same exact thing.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: You played a full entire game and it came literally
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: down to the last second of the game that decided
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: the entire game. So that's football, baby. It totally is
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: so frustrating. So we'll add that on the side like that,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: that will probably be one of our five. Honestly, that's
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: it's a huge number. It's too big. San Francisco forty
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Niners at Sinnati Bengals one of the most interesting games
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: on the board on Sunday afternoon. What's interesting about it
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: is you can get either team as an underdog right now.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Either you can get the Niners at plus one, you
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: can get the Bengals of plus one. I have no
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: clue what to do this line. I saw it two
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: when it opened, and its moves. I think what it
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: moved from um three and a half or maybe it's
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: three down, open three and a half, and you can
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: open with the with the Niners at three and a half.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, we have to wait a little bit longer
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: on this one because I don't really have a great
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: feel for it. When I put this number in, I
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: thought it should be three. So I don't know. I
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: guess I like SINCE. But that's maybe that's why I
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: should take sense, because I feel so unsure about taking
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: SINCE in this position. But Joe Burrow broke his finger
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: or dislocated whatever happened in that game, so they came
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: all the way back. I think it was twenty two.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: They didn't score a point after single point after that.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: So I'll wait and see what the news of the Joe.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: But as we sit here today or without Fred Warren,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: the route debo at while receive, that's that's two huge
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: pieces to that team in the forty Niners. So we
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: gotta see what happens with the line. And they had
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: to two major starters out last week. I know Bosa
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: got hurt and he was out of that game for
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. You saw there was constant pressure on Burrow
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: in that game that that was a big deal. So
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: if they're all lines back with the Bengals playing against
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: this banged up secondary of the forty Niners, I'll be
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: on the Bengals. That's it's a big advantage towards the
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: Bengals offense that they got Jamaar Chase there, they got Mixing,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: they got all their weapons there. The forty Niners are
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: kind of real and reeling right now from these these injuries.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Um I I don't like fading the four ninitis team
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: in this position because I get it the Burros of
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: coming because I was a bad number when I was
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: at three and a half three, But now you're giving
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: me value since so I'll take that value with this
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Bengals team. You in the span of about a hundred
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: and eighty seconds went from being completely unsure didn't know
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: what to do, to a hundred positive the Bengals were
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: the right side. Well, I just made the sense. When
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: I first saw this number, I had no idea because
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: I didn't really get the movement on it. But now,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: like a day later, it kind of makes more sense.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: The pros were saying, you know, I'm getting good number
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. That's why I've been it down.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I know what you mean. I was. I
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: was definitely unsure when I first lest number because I
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: really didn't want to bet this Bengals team. Matt Mitchell
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: slacked us and said he expects this to be a
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: highlight of sharp calls over the next forty eight hours.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Could be I mean, honest, I haven't heard anything about
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: it yet, but like I'm sure, guys, I bet this.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Speaking to Matt Mitchell, Matt, if you could jump on
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: for a second, we're gonna talk about the Bills visiting
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are three point favorites right now,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Do you remember what
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: you said to me before Simon jumped in, when we
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: were all jumping into the zoom. I told you that
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: you would see a peak professional effort from me in
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: the weeks I had because I feel incapable of experiencing
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: the joys of life moving forward after that game last night,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: and furthermore, I will make a promise to all of
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: our stars, some of whom do not enjoy hearing the
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Bill shout song. I will not play the Bill shout
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: song again on this show this season until the Bills
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: win a playoff game. That will be put to bed
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: because I feel totally dead inside after last night. Somebody
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: gave us a review that said the show was great,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: and then they just listed all the things they hate
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: about the show. Again, You're welcome to ship all over
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: me the show, Chad Simon, and those reviews. They really
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: should be five stars, though. I want to see five
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: stars and then all your criticisms. Thank you. I'll tell
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: you what. Anyone who can give us a five star
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: review that says one nice thing and then list all
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the things you hate, you're getting some Action Network swag.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: For sure. Feedback is a gift. Yet feedback is a
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: gift some wise person once said that who was it?
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: He was very old, so just some extremely yeah, some
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: old guy. Believe his name is Chad Norman. What do
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: we think about this Bill's Buccaneers game. I don't know
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: what the hell do this one either. I think the
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Bills are getting a lot of feedback. They're getting a
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: lot of gifts right now. I can't trust Josh Allen.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Like we talked about coming in the season, he was
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for a big regression. They kind of
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: got away with it. They beat up on all these
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: bad teams. They just have not beat good teams. Like again,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: you can say they beat the Chiefs, that was the
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: one good team they beat in this year. But they
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: keep keep letting us down. I don't know what is
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: going on in this offense. Maybe it's because they can't
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: run it. They don't have a running back they can trust,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: and that's put too much pressure on Josh Allen and
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: everything like that. But if you're giving me three points
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: and the public split on this one, so you're not
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: really getting any advantage either way. We'll take Brady. I'll
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: take Brady at home. He's the MVP right now. I mean,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: what do you throw for another four touchdowns last week.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: The guy is just all automatic. Gotta hate this back
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: because I want to take the Bills so bad. Like
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: if this was still four or four and a half,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I would love to take the Bills here. But at three, man,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: I gotta take the home team. It's it's Brady at
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: home with all of his weapons. Like, uh, I know
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: Antonio Brown is still out with all his bs, but
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: they're healthy on offense. They've got all the guys there.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Defense a little scary, like they're talking about Richard Sherman
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: coming back, because if that's an upgrade of their cornerback
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: position for this Tampa Bay team, that's bad. That's that's
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: that's bad. When you hear that kind of stuff. That
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: man is cooked. So this could be a gay right
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: game for Josh Allen, but we're not getting any value
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: with the points here. With Josh down, the value is
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: shifted towards Tampa. So sitting here on minus three, I'll
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: take Tampa. It's gonna be a Buccaneers Patriots super Bowl,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: no way, no chance. I'd love to see it. I
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: love to see the public keeps saying that, So there's
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: just no chance that's gonna happen. In my mind, it's
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: gonna end up being Cardinals and whoever, Like no one's
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: talking about the Cardinals that that that's usually the team
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: that makes that makes the run, you right, like the
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: team that just no one really talks about it at all. Look,
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: it is interesting, and we're gonna get to the Rams
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: and the Cardinals. We got two games left first, Simon says,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: And so let's talk a little bit more about the
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Cardinals and Monday night against the Rams after we talk
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: about what I assume will be Simon says, Chicago Bears
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: at Green Bay Packers, the Bears plus twelve and a
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: half at lambeau Field on Sunday night. Not because I've
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: just been burned by Naggy too many times. I just
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: can't keep doing it. I don't get how after the
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: second interception he doesn't go, you know what, fuck it.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Let's put Nick Foles in, the guy who won a
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl and see what he can do instead of
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Andy Dalton. I don't get what's happening in Chicago. The
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: whole thing is bizarre. But I don't know. I had
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: to take the Bears is way too many points screen Bay.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: I know they're healthy they're coming off of bye They're
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: they're the class that they really are this year. They've
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: had major injuries, they haven't stopped winning, they haven't stopped
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: covering all year. Crazy amount of points. I think I saw.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: This is the biggest dog Naggy has ever been in
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: his coaching career. Twelve and a half points. Gotta hate
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: this bet. I'm taking it, but I'm not making anyone
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: listening to the show take this bet. I mean, look
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: at this is a sharp play, right You're you're taking
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: it because the number is too big. History dictates that
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers goes off in this game. Again, I have it. Technically,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: my value towards is towards green bet. I have this
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: at minus thirteen. I can't do it in a primetime game.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I just can't pull the trigger. It's like you just said,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: it's such a pro number. You have to take the
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Bears here. Um, but I hate making this bet. Los
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals. Uh, this has to be
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: Simon says. Simon says, take the Cardinals right now. The
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Cardinals are two and a half point favorites. No, Simon says,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: take the Rams. Oh my goodness, Oh my goodness, my
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: head is spinning. I can't believe you're saying that everyone
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: hates this. Bet. A couple of pros I talked to,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: they hit this number right away when it touched three.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: For a little while. It's back time of two and
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: a half of most books. We love taking the Rams
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: in this position. That the Cardinals already beat up and
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: dominated this Rams team, revenge factor, everything could give me.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Give me the Rams here, Um, Matthew Stafford, he's horrible
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: against teams above five, like absolutely terrible. Break those demons,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford, get us this cover and win. The public
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: is gonna be coming in very, very hard on this
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Arizona team. Everyone's teasers, money line bets, everything's gonna be
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: tied to this Arizona team on Monday Night. We we
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: gotta do. We gotta take the Rams in this position.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: So yeah, this will this will be my signmon, says Bet.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: My only caveat is wait to get the three. I
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: do love the two and a half and the like
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: I know I would think that you take it right now.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Try to wait to get that three. I could see
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: that number moving over the next couple of days up
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: to three. You didn't tell me anything here that is
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: wise guy logic. All you did was tell me why
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: I have to fade the Cardinals because we think it's
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: reve nge and it's a get right spot for Matt
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Stafford's that's right. It's like a divisional game have been
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: between two teams that the Cardinals are crazier revalued. It
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: was the same thing against the reason we took the
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: Bears and dont's gonna throw four picks and they don't
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: start on the thirteen and whatever it was the seventeen.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: I just can't see Arizona covering that number. Like, say
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: what you want about Kyler, I still didn't think you
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: look right in that game. It wasn't like he was
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: throwing all over the field at the end of the
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: day with like a hundred yards passing. Again, he didn't
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: have to do much because any Dalton was giving him
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: the game. But I don't know, it's it's more of
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: a fade on this this Arizona team that just can't Again,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: my numbers might screw against them. I just don't see
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: where the public won't be better in the number. That's
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: why it's a pro number. When you first saw this number,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: didn't you think you're getting great value on Arizona two
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: and a half, like you just talked about with the
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: bills of the same thing. It's like you take the
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: home team when it's two and a half. Why are
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: the books doing that? They're they're getting to think apes
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: on the money, apes and the tickets right now in Arizona.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: So that's the pro And he is looking at saying, no,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: what you robbed the book here? They're setting up on
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Monday night. Trap. It's kind of a good time to
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: stay with the book. Okay, okay, that's better. That's a
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: better answer. Your first answer was a little bit fluffy.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: It's true though, it's it's so hard to win two
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: games in a row against divisional opponents. You know that
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: time to take down the hops when all hope is lost.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: All this left is relief. Let's play Scotch rolette. Last
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: week in Screwtch Roulette, I went with Atlanta, I took
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: an owl. I'm not trying to, you know, swindle you
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: out of your opportunity to go first. It's not how
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: I roll. You had Pittsburgh one, am I up to one?
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: You now? I don't know, Simon. I don't keep tracking
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: matching around the chat just bush it anyways. I don't know, man,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: this is so gross doing a freaking ten am on Tuesday.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: I'll do it. I'll take the Giants. Give me all
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: those points. Wow? Did that? Or taking that Rams? One?
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: But I don't feel like wait until Monday night. Okay,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: s H is taking the Giants. You know who CEM
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: is gonna take? CM is taking. When I look at
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: the games we've circled, they're all gross. I'm looking at
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, the Washington football team, the Jets, the Texans,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: maybe Detroit, although we're on opposite sides the Giants. Since
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: he we're waiting on the fucking Rams, give me the Raiders, Raiders.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know why in my head I thought you
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: were gonna take on Enesota. I'm not a fan of
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota vikingss this week. Well, I'm taking the Raiders.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Raiders plus nine and a half. That screw Roulette. Take
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: some big road dogs, road dogs. You know who's gonna
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: be a road dog? Me because I'm hitting the road
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: driving south to Philadelphia. What else are you in a
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: little bit? Wait? Man, cannot wait? All right, we did
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: it all as as Howard Stern says, we set it all.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: We covered the slate, we did scouture let, we did
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: Simon says, we got a foxhold. On Thursday, we'll narrow
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: it down for our favorite five. We'll talk about the
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: money line parlay, we'll talk about our big balls better
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: the week until we get there. He's Simon Hunter. I'm
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Chad Noman. This has been the favorites from the volume
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: of podcast Network downloaded from Spotify by Apple Podcasts wherever
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts until Thursday. I love you