Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Dr. Jeff Ross & Joe Carlasare | Simply Bitcoin IRL

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Dr. Jeff Ross & Joe Carlasare | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:05
  Hello everybody. Welcome to another episode of
• 0:07
  Simply Bitcoin IRL. Today we have a very special
• 0:10
  show lined up. We have dr.
• 0:12
  Jeff Ross, and joão Carlos, re think I nailed the last name
• 0:17
  anyways. Before we jump into the show and
• 0:19
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• 0:22
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  tickets. All right, no more no more
• 0:55
  delay. Joe on a scale of 1 through 10,
• 0:59
  how badly did I butcher? Your last name, I think you're
• 1:04
  me to Joe. Sorry, I just said you nailed
• 1:07
  it, you absolutely crushed. Yes, awesome.
• 1:10
  Awesome, awesome. Okay, great great.
• 1:12
  All right, well, it kind of makes my job easy because of all
• 1:15
  the madness that's been going on and you guys are, you know what,
• 1:19
  I consider some of the macro, heavyweights on Twitter.
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  I just want to read a statement by the treasury and then I want
• 1:26
  to, I want to get your, take your guys takes on this.
• 1:29
  So treasury said this yesterday and this was before pacwa West
• 1:35
  Bank Corp stock, just plummeted like a shit coin.
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  They said, the banking system remains sound and resilient and
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  Americans should feel confident in the safety of deposits and
• 1:45
  the ability of the banking system to fulfill, its essential
• 1:48
  function of providing credits of businesses and families.
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  I don't know about you guys, but I don't know, I don't know how
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  much I believe that. You gotta believe Nico, the
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  number one, the number one job right of the FED officials and
• 2:05
  our governing officials is to manage expectations.
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  It's not the Dual mandate. It's not all this other stuff.
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  They talk about. They're literally like their
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  main job is to manage expectations.
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  They know what a circus it is. They know what's going on behind
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  the scenes, they're on the phone.
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  With these people all the time, they're having emergency
• 2:23
  meetings, I promise you on a regular basis right now and but
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  but their job they cannot show Panic, right?
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  If they say anything that would instill, any sort of panic,
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  there would be just even more massive Bank runs than they
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  already are. So I think that they're trying
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  to stop it. I think we're going to see more
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  more of these Regional Banks go down before this is over.
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  You know, I'm not just massively bearish, I think at some point.
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  I mean, it's hard. It's hard to talk about this
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  because, you know, I don't personally want to, you know,
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  Insight any sort of bank run. I don't think there needs to be
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  one, but this is the kind of thing that happens when people
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  start to lose confidence, they people get really, really
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  worried about their money. And if they think that it's
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  unsafe, even if it's not necessary to do to, you know, to
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  flee to go somewhere else to take their money somewhere else,
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  people panic and they do crazy things when they're scared.
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  And so, I think that's what we're seeing In the End, the Fed
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  officials the other Central Bank Those are doing everything they
• 3:20
  can to prevent this from happening.
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  I'm not sure they'll be successful, but I'd love to hear
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  Joe's take. No, I think that's great and I
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  agree. So let's let's see if I can if
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  you'll indulge me let's go back to the beginning.
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  Okay, why this is occurring right?
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  So obviously it's well-known. I think that the Federal Reserve
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  has been on this rapid accelerating rate hiking
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  campaign, right? And that has diminished the book
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  value of many assets bonds, MBS that is held at all these
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  Regional Banks. So how are the regional Banks
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  different from the more Global systemically important Banking?
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  And the reason is very simple it's that they're just not as
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  robust. They don't have the cash flow,
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  they don't have the balance sheet capacity, they're weaker
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  players right in the system and in an economic downturn in a
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  situation where there is a rush to get your deposits.
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  Okay. You are going to naturally.
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  If you're an entrepreneur, if you're a business owner you're
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  not going to just risk. Uninsured deposit sitting at
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  these Regional Banks where they're jeopardized.
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  So what You've tended to see is that the weaker players?
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  The particularly place like Silicon Valley Bank, the ones
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  that had, you know, a lot of uninsured deposits.
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  A lot of people that had transactional accounts, meaning,
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  they weren't investing those assets or just holding them in
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  deposits on behalf of businesses who had cash flow concerns.
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  They got nervous right? Because they know that their
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  Book value of all these assets mark-to-market are substantially
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  lower because of the feds rate hikes.
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  So if you're in that situation or people like Peter teal and
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  all the companies investing in, you're going to say, I'm not
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  going to risk my deposits. This bank, I'm going to err on
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  the side of caution. I mean, it's kind of a
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  primordial urge to protect your Capital.
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  If you haven't met a bank that is even so slightly exposed.
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  So you seen it start at the edges and it will work its way
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  towards the core to the bigger more robust Banks.
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  And that's what you're seeing one by one.
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  They sort of get weaker players are purged from the system.
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  I think it's important if you're analyzing this is to realize
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  unlike the 2008 crisis. This is not starting out as a
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  credit problem per se, it's not people that are defaulting on
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  loans. Loans, defend their delinquency
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  delinquent in their obligations. It's starting as a problem with
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  these banks that have all of this stuff that they thought
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  that it was going to be a very low interest rate environment
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  for a long time and they could load up on these extremely low
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  yielding instruments that are now worth a whole lot less.
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  And then as things have progressed longer as they've
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  gotten tighter with respect to liquidity and credit, it puts
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  more and more stress on them. So you know we can get into a
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  whole path forward here where we think this is going to go but
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  the ultimate problem starts off from the point.
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  Sam point is that these smaller Banks just don't have balance
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  sheet capacity compared to the bigger ones.
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  Yeah. And then, what is the unintended
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  consequence of that, right? Over a long period of time.
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  As you've seen the smaller Banks consolidate into the bigger and
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  bigger Banks and actually have a chart.
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  I'm really glad that you brought that up Joe.
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  I'm actually going to pull it up right for audio listeners,
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  right? It's like chart that starts from
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  1995 and fast-forwards all the way to 2009.
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  So this is e. This problem has gotten even
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  worse, right? Right, where, you know, the the
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  smaller bangs, consolidate into the bigger Banks, and it goes
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  from Wachovia for Western Union. First Union that, what that can
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  solid into Wells, Fargo? Right Bank of America.
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  You have all these Banks, you know, Merrill Lynch is in there
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  as well. Bear Stearns Consolidated to
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  jpmorgan's chase. Now, First Republic, and what
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  are the unintended consequences of this on a long time scale and
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  the and on the federal officials, you know, they don't
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  really care about it. There was A very there's a viral
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  video of a senator from Oklahoma confronting Janet Yellen about
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  this US Treasury secretary. Like a, what don't you worry
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  about this? And she, you know she kind of
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  gasoline them a little bit. I don't know if you guys know
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  what I'm talking about that that specific video but what are your
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  thoughts on that? What are the unintended
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  consequences of just? A handful of banks, controlling
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  everything, basically. So I'll jump in first on this
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  one. So I think number one, it's Ad
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  for America. I think you have to look at why
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  we have Regional Banks. Why we have local banks while we
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  have credit unions in the first place and it's because they have
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  people on the ground in these communities that have the
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  ability to use what I call soft factors in assessing credit
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  risk. Okay.
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  Meaning that they know some of these Farms their lending to,
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  they know some of these local businesses on a first-name
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  basis. And they know that if I give it
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  to Joe Smith, he's going to repay this loan, and he's using
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  it for the local pizzeria. So it provides that liquidity
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  provides that credit for entrepreneurial.
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  And it doesn't, those entities don't get lost in the
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  bureaucracy of the mega Banks, right?
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  Which have much tighter requirements, they don't have as
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  much leeway. They don't have as much
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  discretion, and that's really why if you started its core, why
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  do all of these? You know, institutions
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  companies? Why do they put their money into
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  Regional Banks? Why doesn't everybody just bank
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  at JP Morgan, right? And the answer is because they
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  prioritize that relationship that relationship with the local
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  Bankers important. And they're saying, we're going
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  to even risk having uninsured to deposits at places like Silicon
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  Valley Bank because of the unique access that that bank
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  provides to that investment community and to the resources
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  that come there with it. So I think the, the answer, your
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  question, the intense and unintended consequences are this
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  consolidation of the banks is your showed in the chart but
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  also you're starving credit from people.
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  That would otherwise have access to credit if there was a
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  regional banking apparatus. And that's that's a terrible
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  thing for the country and for the economy, Yeah.
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  So, what would you say to that, dr.
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  Ross, I'll just jump in to say I'm not convinced.
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  It is unintended these consequences.
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  I think that the government and the Regulators love to see
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  consolidation. I think they want their
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  tentacles in everything, right? They want to see what's going on
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  and it's way easier to see what's going on at four huge
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  Banks than it is to see at you know, 4,000 Regional banks on
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  top of that. So I think they would love
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  nothing more than to see all of that, get Consolidated under the
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  Big Four. Totally agree with Joe.
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  I think this is really difficult on smaller local communities.
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  It's really difficult on small businesses.
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  I'm a small business owner, I deal with this all the time.
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  I deal with Regulators a lot. I'm I'm fairly convinced that
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  they are not on my side, right? I mean, II, me and my attorneys
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  spend lots of time trying to comply with regulators.
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  And and from my standpoint I'm like, I feel like you're trying
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  to put me out of business with all of these regulars, I can
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  barely survive. I'm not getting a paycheck
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  several months. A year because all of it goes to
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  my attorney fees, and Joe obviously is a good friend of
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  mine and is an attorney it. So I'm not coming down and
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  attorneys are like their attorneys are my best friends
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  during these times because The Regulators are making it so
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  difficult. So, I'm of the sort of
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  conspiracy conspiratorial type opinion that they would love
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  nothing more than to see lots of consolidation in small
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  businesses and especially in Regional Banks, they would love
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  to see them turn into, you know, it morph into the big for a
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  larger Banks. I do you know what dr.
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  Rod. No go ahead.
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  I was just going to say, if you want to go down the
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  conspiratorial route, one thing to think about is that during
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  the oh, a crisis, right? You had similar issues with the
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  smaller players that they were fearful of potentially liquidity
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  issues and they ramped up alternative programs.
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  One was called, I was actually just looking at this today, the
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  transactional account guarantee program, the tag program and
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  that's where the FDIC provided unlimited insurance coverage for
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  non-interest bearing. Transaction accounts.
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  It's interesting given the Particular issues facing the
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  banking system right now how they have not resurrected that
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  program yet, so along a conspiratorial lines, you know,
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  maybe it's not the worst thing that they, they want to purge
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  some of these players from the system.
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  Particularly, I mean, it's well documented with respect to
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  Signature Bank, according to Barney Frank, former chair of
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  the house Financial Services committee that that message
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  there is a message sent to bring that back down to send a larger
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  message to crypto in general. So there are targeted efforts.
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  I think that are under way whether it's Is it or not to
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  purge the system of certain players?
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  And in and I would, I would also say that dr.
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  Ross, I don't think it's a conspiracy.
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  I I think that that's a convenient label, right?
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  I had the privilege to have Caitlyn long and I asked her
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  point-blank, right? Why did they deny, you know?
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  Custodia the Federal Banking Charter which would make her
• 11:44
  competitive with these other Banks even though custodial was
• 11:47
  108 percent, backed, right. And she said, At the orders came
• 11:52
  directly from the top, meaning the White House, right?
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  And then this kind of fits into the writing of the writings of
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  Nick Carter with operation choke point 2.0 with this.
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  Massive move by the administration in the hopes of
• 12:06
  isolating the traditional Financial system from Bitcoin,
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  right? And it is very very convenient
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  for them. If there's only a handful of
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  banks of which they of which they have to you know, control
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  basically And then there is another thing that you're
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  mentioning dr. Ross, and I'm curious to get
• 12:25
  Jose takes on this and sees a lawyer.
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  Is this idea of this regulatory mode right?
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  And I think the big Banks, see it as a cost of doing business.
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  But if you're a small bank and you're trying to compete, it's
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  almost impossible because you're spending more on just
• 12:41
  compliance, then actually trying to provide a good user
• 12:45
  experience for your customer. Yeah, I don't have much to add
• 12:50
  it in that other than the fact that that's a real thing.
• 12:52
  I mean that's that's one of the reasons why we haven't had more.
• 12:55
  I think Bitcoin only exchanges in the United States because
• 12:57
  it's extraordinarily difficult to set up the proper accounts.
• 13:01
  The proper registration is to get the licensure.
• 13:03
  I mean, it's so cost prohibitive and four Banks, they're one of
• 13:07
  the most highly regulated Industries.
• 13:09
  You know, they're up there with insurance in that the amount of
• 13:11
  Hoops you have to jump through an approval to get anything
• 13:14
  done, even something simple, we were helping a client, Aunt, who
• 13:18
  was providing Bitcoin services and offering custody Services?
• 13:21
  They wanted to just permit. They wanted to get the green
• 13:24
  light to withdraw Bitcoin, right?
• 13:26
  Just let customers withdraw their own Bitcoin.
• 13:28
  So we don't have to custody on their behalf and they can go in
• 13:30
  and out. It was extraordinarily
• 13:33
  expensive, I'm not going to give you the exact number because it
• 13:35
  would shock you, but it was so expensive that it would say this
• 13:37
  is just not worth it economically.
• 13:39
  We're just not going to go down this product line.
• 13:41
  Yeah. So and this is actually a
• 13:44
  question that I've asked dr. Ross.
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  But I think that as human beings, we, you know, just just
• 13:50
  the way they're our relationship with time.
• 13:52
  We think that things are going to happen a lot faster than we
• 13:56
  anticipate. Right?
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  The reality is that this recession hasn't happened or
• 14:01
  maybe in the mainstream eyes, is that going to happen if I've
• 14:07
  read a lot that it's now like unavoidable?
• 14:10
  It's going to happen later on this year.
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  Why do you think it's taken so long?
• 14:15
  I think people were expecting it.
• 14:17
  In the beginning of this year, or late last year, why do you
• 14:20
  think the recession hasn't happened?
• 14:25
  Hey Joe. Well, let me start out by giving
• 14:28
  Joe Kudos because when I was, you know, you screaming from the
• 14:31
  rooftops in the fall of 2022 that the recession was basically
• 14:35
  here, Jose like no, no, no. The economy is still strong
• 14:39
  unemployment is still low. I still think it's stronger than
• 14:43
  then then you're saying it is to me which was good kind of
• 14:47
  calling me out on that a little bit and and it's probably still
• 14:50
  not going to be here for a little while.
• 14:51
  And so kudos to Joe for being right on that you I look more
• 14:55
  at. What do you do?
• 14:56
  How do you risk assets? Perform regardless of whether or
• 14:59
  not we're in a recession, but I will say.
• 15:02
  So that's why I don't really like making recession calls.
• 15:04
  Personally, I don't really care. And that's not to say, I don't
• 15:07
  care about the cost, and the human suffering that goes on, I
• 15:10
  care, deeply about that. But for my clients and as far as
• 15:14
  you know, making money preserving purchasing power,
• 15:17
  things like that, I care more. You know what is bitcoin going
• 15:20
  to do? What our risk assets going to do
• 15:21
  in general, what our stocks bonds?
• 15:22
  Those kind of things going to do.
• 15:26
  I would say that the thing that the way the economy is setting
• 15:29
  up right now to me still looks extremely worrisome.
• 15:31
  The fact that the you know, the yield curve, I let you look at
• 15:34
  the three three months, 10 year, yield curve, and it's inverted
• 15:38
  and 178 points basis points. I believe somewhere around there
• 15:42
  right now. I mean, it's just ridiculous.
• 15:44
  How inverted is now. That doesn't mean that that
• 15:46
  means the recession is going to be extremely terrible.
• 15:49
  It that it's no, they're not correlated necessarily but when
• 15:53
  you look at that and you see what's On with the banking
• 15:55
  structure and you see what's going on with the FED continuing
• 15:58
  to tighten into this economic slowdown.
• 16:01
  So even though we're not having negative GDP growth, we still
• 16:05
  continue to see slowing UDP growth, all of these things
• 16:08
  going in tandem with each other. Just portend to, I think a
• 16:13
  really negative outcome at some point.
• 16:15
  I think at some point we still get the floor drop out moment.
• 16:18
  I think tomorrow is our, we're recording this, you know,
• 16:20
  Tuesday, May 2nd tomorrow, Jerome, Powell speaks.
• 16:23
  I think if he comes He's out with guns blazing again and is
• 16:26
  extremely hawkish and they, and I for sure, I think they're
• 16:29
  going to raise 25 B, but if you comes out and says, hey, we're
• 16:31
  going to continue raising. We still think inflation is too
• 16:34
  hot. We still think the economy is
• 16:35
  very strong. So buckle up for more hawkish -
• 16:38
  I think the risk, the risk assets that that market in
• 16:42
  general has is going to be very tumultuous.
• 16:46
  And I think that there's a chance, the floor does drop out
• 16:48
  sooner than later. And then it, when you layer on
• 16:50
  top of this, and then I'm sorry. I'll stop talking on here with
• 16:52
  Joyce. Has a, when you layer on top of
• 16:54
  this. The debt ceiling debacle that's
• 16:56
  coming to a head. Specially based on what Yellen
• 16:58
  was saying that they may run at the treasury may run out of
• 17:00
  money by June 1st. This is all going to come to a
• 17:03
  head basically this month. So it's very I'm very curious to
• 17:06
  see how things respond. I'm very bearish in the near
• 17:08
  term for risk assets for even Bitcoin.
• 17:11
  I think bitcoin price gets sucked down.
• 17:12
  Probably yeah, it's hard for me to be optimistic at this point
• 17:18
  and whenever you know regardless of when the recession officially
• 17:21
  hits, I think that things like stocks in Bitcoin Are going to
• 17:25
  struggle for the remainder of this year, unless we, unless we
• 17:30
  unless the floor drops out and we get a bottom in the near
• 17:32
  term, so I'm not sure if that made sense.
• 17:34
  I don't know when it's going to happen but it's but we are
• 17:36
  getting closer and closer to that moment.
• 17:38
  And I don't think we're going to have just kind of a soft
• 17:40
  Landing. Where we're all of this, just
• 17:42
  gets smooth out and, and we had the higher levels.
• 17:45
  I know some prominent people that think that I'll just throw
• 17:48
  out raw Paul as one guy who thinks that, you know, we're
• 17:50
  probably going to have a little bit more tumultuous nests for
• 17:52
  the next month or so. And then a Us free sailing from
• 17:55
  there and we're going to go on to higher highs and I'm
• 17:58
  definitely not in that camp. Yeah.
• 18:00
  And what's your take on that Joe?
• 18:02
  You know what's going on here? I think a lot of people were
• 18:05
  anticipating it earlier are you on that?
• 18:08
  I of course as a Bitcoin. I'm like this definitely not
• 18:10
  going to be a soft Landing. Why?
• 18:12
  It was it just the strength of the US economy?
• 18:16
  Yeah, what's your take on that? So let's go back to again 2022
• 18:20
  and what I think happened. I think be cutting this goes
• 18:24
  back. Back to, you know, the hardcore
• 18:25
  Bitcoin Spirit here, right? Because we don't have a good
• 18:28
  money in society. I think our psyche is just
• 18:31
  conditioned that when asset prices are declining, when the
• 18:34
  stock market's down 15-20 percent.
• 18:36
  People just associate that with the recession and that messed up
• 18:39
  a lot of people last year because you saw asset prices
• 18:42
  performing very poorly coming out of 2021, which was a
• 18:45
  fantastic year. And the year before that after
• 18:48
  covid-19 other fantastic year in 2020, but what really happened I
• 18:52
  think is that you had, you know, the peak Did he or the peak
• 18:55
  low-rate environment? You had the peak optimism over
• 18:58
  reopening of her covid. All those things started to peek
• 19:00
  out in Middle to the end of 2021, you saw this sort of
• 19:03
  rolling through the asset classes and then you said the
• 19:05
  FED, which were slow to react to the CPI prices.
• 19:08
  They were just starting to press their metal, to the put on the
• 19:12
  gas to get as fast as they can. To try to catch up with the
• 19:15
  inflationary stim pulse, right? So, this confused a lot of
• 19:19
  people when if you looked at the actual coincident economic
• 19:21
  indicators, the leading indicators, they were still
• 19:24
  fairly early robust through most of the year.
• 19:26
  And that's what I was looking at four terms of the real economy.
• 19:28
  But as Jeff pointed out, like, nobody really cares about, I
• 19:31
  tweeted this out, like, I think most people wouldn't actually
• 19:33
  care what happens to the real economy unless they either lose
• 19:35
  their job or their assets are declining, right?
• 19:38
  Otherwise, they just, you know, the economy which has been
• 19:40
  running under Trend growth for the last 20 years, basically,
• 19:43
  since 2000. They just say whatever it's
• 19:45
  fine. As long as that's keep going up,
• 19:47
  I'll get richer and richer on paper, putting all that aside.
• 19:50
  What happened? What, where are we at right now?
• 19:51
  Well, we already had sort of the liquidity.
• 19:54
  Evening cycle. Okay, that's the key part.
• 19:56
  Liquidity is tightening. We've drawn for the system rates
• 19:59
  are getting higher. You can see this across all
• 20:01
  asset classes. You had these little bumps,
• 20:03
  right? Because nothing goes in a
• 20:04
  straight line down, even a ball rolling down the hill, tends to
• 20:06
  bounce, right? So you have these bounces of
• 20:09
  liquidity, most notably in the last quarter of 2022, but
• 20:14
  realistically, the actual economy has not yet slowed.
• 20:17
  So I think we're moving into the second phase where liquidity is
• 20:20
  being withdrawn. And then now you figure out
• 20:22
  who's swimming and who's swimming naked.
• 20:24
  Naked, right? This is the credit crunch.
• 20:26
  This is the credit contraction part of the economic cycle and I
• 20:29
  my base case is at a minimum, not necessarily A collapse, not
• 20:34
  necessarily a 2008 style recession but a serious
• 20:36
  recession recession that will be meaningful in terms of the rise
• 20:40
  in unemployment. I think that comes this year and
• 20:43
  again these are sort of long slow processes.
• 20:46
  Okay. I don't expect this to be over
• 20:48
  with this year. I don't expect it to be over
• 20:50
  with next year. I think there's a great
• 20:52
  possibility. We could be having the same
• 20:53
  conversation a year. Now talking about the recession
• 20:56
  and when it's when it's going to be over and winter you know
• 20:58
  assets going to start to go higher, I don't think it's going
• 21:00
  to be a quick easy one. We're sort of a custom of these
• 21:03
  sort of V, recoveries, I don't think it's going to be this one.
• 21:05
  I think is going to be a grinding slow-moving environment
• 21:08
  and from my standpoint I go back to the academic literature and
• 21:11
  the research, right? The research shows that when you
• 21:14
  hike interest rates, it's anywhere from a 12 to 24 month
• 21:19
  lag, before those rates actually percolate through the economy
• 21:22
  and the majority of debt from. Hi.
• 21:24
  I yield needs to be rolled in 20 late 2023 2024, right?
• 21:28
  So these people, these companies are going to be rolling their
• 21:30
  debts at very high interest rates relative to what they took
• 21:33
  out. The loans at which is going to
• 21:34
  put all sorts of strain on the financial system.
• 21:36
  So I think we're like in the early Innings of this and it's
• 21:39
  going to go for a long time. And the only thing I think that
• 21:42
  would be reverse. This trend is if you have
• 21:44
  something serious, systemic that breaks that forces a re
• 21:48
  acceleration of the liquidity, the zirp the the stimmy checks
• 21:52
  that type of thing. But honestly I don't see that.
• 21:54
  Coming anywhere near in the future.
• 21:56
  So I think we're in the early Innings of a recession.
• 21:58
  I think it comes starting, probably later, part of this
• 22:00
  year. All the early leading indicators
• 22:02
  show, the economic growths, falling off month-over-month
• 22:05
  even unemployment is starting to soften ever so modestly.
• 22:09
  But again, don't get confused. Last year, was not the
• 22:12
  recession, it was the economic data was robust throughout the
• 22:14
  entire year. You had the word consecutive
• 22:17
  quarters, where Judy? I was positive, you had two
• 22:20
  quarters were GDP was positive. Nominal growth was high the
• 22:23
  entire year. So you really just didn't have a
• 22:26
  record low unemployment through most of the year.
• 22:28
  You didn't have what we typically see in a recession.
• 22:30
  It doesn't mean it's not coming. It's just going to take a lot
• 22:32
  longer than people think. Yeah and then also what's being
• 22:35
  talked about as well? Like what I've been reading on
• 22:38
  reading up on is this idea of stagflation as well, right?
• 22:41
  Where you have this persistent High inflation?
• 22:43
  And then you know, potentially heading into a recession, like
• 22:46
  you said, Joe. We as a country.
• 22:49
  I don't think we've experienced that since the 70s, right?
• 22:51
  And this in the 70s, we had about a decade of Static
• 22:55
  economic growth. What are your thoughts on that?
• 22:58
  Is that a possibility? Stack, I don't see that.
• 23:03
  I actually think we're heading into recession because I think
• 23:06
  that the FED is very much Resolute in their efforts to
• 23:10
  Stamp Out inflation. And again, they have sort of now
• 23:13
  admitted it publicly that they're forecasting recession,
• 23:16
  right? Which many people in macro
• 23:18
  circles have known for a while, right there coming to the terms
• 23:21
  with finally accepting it. But if you looked at their own
• 23:23
  summary of economic projections, they think unemployment is going
• 23:25
  to get to levels, where you would only see those types of
• 23:28
  levels in a recession, right? So it's, it's Well, within their
• 23:32
  their forecasts and I think it's their stated or unstated goal to
• 23:36
  trigger a recession because they, they know there's no way
• 23:39
  they're going to get the CPI down to 2%, which is their
• 23:43
  target unless they trigger a recession now, can they revised
• 23:48
  their target? Can to become the lower end of
• 23:50
  their expectations and they revised it higher 23, and just
• 23:53
  accept it and call it a day. I think that's a higher
• 23:55
  possibility than most people think.
• 23:57
  But right now, you're seeing 80% of the basket still. 12 points
• 24:01
  above where it should be, that's not that's nowhere near where
• 24:04
  they needed to be. So I don't see them pulling
• 24:07
  their foot off the gas, and every other cycle, you've talked
• 24:09
  about where they've come in, and they've they've sort of been
• 24:12
  able to massage it through interest rate Cuts or maybe
• 24:15
  stimulus checks. Okay, you didn't have the type
• 24:17
  of CPI numbers were still seeing right now.
• 24:20
  The persistently, High CPI, and the easy downturn, and CPI the
• 24:25
  easy pull back, we've gotten rid of that, we've exhausted it.
• 24:29
  The last two percent are going to be the hardest.
• 24:30
  List of those stickiest components and to do that,
• 24:33
  they're going to have to trigger what is more than a
• 24:35
  garden-variety recession. It's going to be a painful one,
• 24:37
  I think. And what about where to risk
• 24:39
  assets to in the environment? It's a whole nother discussion
• 24:41
  right? Because it's a whole separate
• 24:42
  inquiry, we can get into but I think in terms of unemployment,
• 24:45
  I expect unemployment, they could be going up substantially
• 24:48
  over the next 12 to 24 months. Wow.
• 24:51
  Okay. And actually, I want to get back
• 24:53
  to how risk assets are going to perform specifically Bitcoin
• 24:56
  because this is why everyone's here, but before before we get
• 24:59
  to that, I want to pass it on to dr.
• 25:01
  Jeff Ross's. Same question about stagflation.
• 25:04
  Do you think that the FED is hell-bent on, you know, doing
• 25:08
  whatever it takes? Even if it means putting
• 25:10
  millions of people out of a job to get inflation under control.
• 25:15
  So yes I'll say just flat-out for that but I'd like to add, I
• 25:20
  think. That's a terrible way to address
• 25:23
  this situation, right? I think it's barbaric to, you
• 25:26
  know, to try to bring inflation down by destroying demand.
• 25:29
  Because when we say destroying the man, what we mean is, they
• 25:31
  want to put Americans out of work.
• 25:33
  So Americans don't have the excess spending capacity to
• 25:37
  drive prices higher and that egg, that lack of excess
• 25:41
  spending capacity will cause prices to fall totally barbaric.
• 25:44
  There are other ways to go about this on a supply demand curve.
• 25:47
  There are two curves and one of them is demand and one of them
• 25:50
  is Supply. I think we should be focusing on
• 25:52
  Supply personally, and not worrying about inflation so
• 25:55
  much. Personally, that's my opinion.
• 25:58
  And obviously the FED disagrees with me.
• 26:01
  I do think when we look back in history that we will consider
• 26:05
  the 2020s to be in general, a stagflation.
• 26:08
  Airy period, I think, but, but like the 70s we consider the 70s
• 26:12
  to be stagflation area, but there were, there were lots of
• 26:15
  smaller shorter periods within the 70s that you did not see
• 26:19
  stagflation, right. You have periods of and I think
• 26:23
  we're going to see this this decade periods where we see
• 26:25
  deflation flat-out. We see deflationary bust.
• 26:28
  I think we're at a high risk for that happening over the next
• 26:30
  year. At some point where the floor
• 26:32
  drops out under prices, under Commodities under stocks even
• 26:35
  possibly under Bitcoin again and and and inflation.
• 26:39
  I don't think is just going to go away at that one.
• 26:42
  Other point, I want to bring up. I've been thinking a lot about
• 26:44
  this and I really kind of hope I'm wrong.
• 26:45
  Sort of, I do, I'm not convinced.
• 26:48
  The FED is going to come out immediately with a bazooka.
• 26:51
  Zuka this time around because I think they know, and, and Paulo
• 26:54
  has brought this up, he does not want to be Arthur Burns of the
• 26:57
  70s. He does not want to say, okay,
• 26:59
  we finally defeated inflation. Yes, the market is tanking.
• 27:04
  Everything looks terrible. And what they did in the 70s is
• 27:06
  then they quit trying so hard to destroy Demand, right?
• 27:09
  And so they allowed they came in with easing basically their
• 27:13
  version of it. They pulled rates way down and
• 27:16
  what happened is inflation. Just spiked again.
• 27:19
  I think the 2020s even though it's different In the 70s, in
• 27:21
  many ways, I think the the 2020s is going to be marked by very
• 27:26
  tumultuous and volatile inflation in general.
• 27:29
  And so I think Pablo will be loathe to open the Bazookas up
• 27:34
  and just be like, okay, Q E Infinity.
• 27:36
  I hear a lot of people saying this and I even eat was saying
• 27:39
  this six months ago, but I'm not so convinced that that's
• 27:42
  actually going to happen. I think he doesn't want to do
• 27:45
  massive QE because they run the risk of sort of reigniting
• 27:49
  inflation again. Then just get in being right.
• 27:51
  Back in the same problem that they were, you know, two years
• 27:53
  earlier. So and so I'm very curious to
• 27:56
  see how he responds to this and I'm not overly optimistic about
• 28:00
  it, to be honest. So that's a long answer to say
• 28:05
  I'm pessimistic and I'm also kind of increasingly pessimistic
• 28:10
  about the solution. Lots of people are really
• 28:13
  excited for the FED to turn and to you know, into and use all of
• 28:17
  his weapons and get Q. E Infinity, just going again,
• 28:20
  I'm not That's going to happen as soon or is massively as many
• 28:23
  people think. Okay.
• 28:26
  All right. Gentlemen.
• 28:28
  So moving on to why I feel like a lot of people tune into this
• 28:32
  type of show, which is in this, you know, in the next six to
• 28:37
  nine months. Right?
• 28:38
  You know, whatever happens, recessionary wise What's going
• 28:42
  to happen to the price of Bitcoin?
• 28:45
  How is going to how is Bitcoin going to behave in this
• 28:47
  environment? Specifically, since if you look
• 28:50
  at Bitcoins historical performance, as it gets closer
• 28:55
  to the having it tends to go up, right?
• 28:57
  So is it, is it going to change Bitcoins, historical Behavior?
• 29:01
  Do you think it will continue to be treated by the market as a
• 29:03
  risk on asset? Is the having going to play, you
• 29:07
  know, play a role in this? What's your take on that Joe?
• 29:10
  And then we'll pass. Sit on to dr.
• 29:12
  Ross, so I think that Bitcoin can hang in there and do
• 29:18
  reasonably well for the remainder of the year before
• 29:22
  unemployment begins to rapidly rise.
• 29:24
  And I don't honestly think that unemployment is on the verge of,
• 29:28
  you know, wrap soaring higher in the next couple months.
• 29:32
  But I think Bitcoin is still going to be caught up in this
• 29:34
  environment with risk assets generally.
• 29:37
  And I think that is long as you have a relatively stable
• 29:41
  employment Market, you don't have many for Sellers.
• 29:44
  And once for sellers, enter the market with respect to the
• 29:47
  equity Market. I think there's a lot of funds
• 29:49
  that are just going to sell everything great because they
• 29:51
  have to cover positions and they will sell Bitcoin.
• 29:54
  I don't necessarily think it's it needs to go down and make new
• 29:56
  lows for say. I think you can sort of Trend in
• 29:59
  the same range, but I'm optimistic about next year,
• 30:03
  particularly the faster we get into a recession because
• 30:06
  ultimately, I think you need some green light from the fat
• 30:09
  even if they're not going to come with and I agree with Jeff.
• 30:11
  If on the comment about more stimulus and liquidity being
• 30:14
  provided the system, ultimately what you want is you want them
• 30:18
  to be relatively stable, okay? You want to do want them to have
• 30:21
  the ability to bring down inflation to a level where
• 30:24
  they're going to just hold. Okay.
• 30:26
  And in that environment, if there is a recession, hopefully
• 30:28
  it's a moderate one. And by the time you get to the
• 30:31
  other side of that Bitcoin kind of already bottom doesn't
• 30:33
  necessarily have to make a new bottom but it can effectively
• 30:36
  range in this will build a nice bass range for the next cycle
• 30:40
  range until we get out of Session are forces that are on
• 30:43
  the horizon and had higher. Okay.
• 30:45
  I always tell folks I don't really, I don't trade Bitcoin.
• 30:47
  I don't think it's wise to trade it.
• 30:49
  I think it's more makes a lot more sense to just slowly dollar
• 30:52
  cost average into a position. But I'm not so naive to think
• 30:55
  that in a recessionary environment where liquidity is
• 30:58
  being drained from the system by the billions of dollars on a
• 31:01
  weekly basis and money's getting Tighter and credits, getting
• 31:04
  more expensive and businesses are going to have to lay off
• 31:06
  employees that Bitcoin is going to go into this Raging Bull
• 31:09
  Market, where we're going to be at 200 or Hundred thousand
• 31:12
  dollars. Now, this Bitcoin have to do
• 31:14
  terrible and in advance of the having and, you know, go to 10K
• 31:18
  or these ridiculous things that people throw out.
• 31:20
  I don't happen to think that's necessarily the bull case or
• 31:22
  better case. Whatever case you want to make
• 31:24
  it. I just think that you know,
• 31:26
  Bitcoin has already struggled a lot.
• 31:28
  Last year, was sort of on this rolling recession, was sort of
• 31:31
  the, the front end of it, experienced a brutal 2022.
• 31:35
  And right now, I view this entire year, sort of Base
• 31:37
  building to take us higher into the years ahead.
• 31:40
  Okay. And what do Think about that,
• 31:42
  dr. Ross, do you think that you
• 31:44
  think Bitcoins hit bottom? Yeah, I do.
• 31:48
  Although, you know, I don't like to make those kind of calls
• 31:50
  because Could It Go lower. Sure, if the floor drops out on
• 31:53
  a risk assets and everybody is panic and panicking, you know,
• 31:56
  and they think the FED is making terrible mistakes, things like
• 31:59
  that, could it go down? Lower, could it break new lows,
• 32:01
  for sure. So, I don't like to say that it,
• 32:03
  you know, just because it hit that 15 6 or whatever hit that.
• 32:06
  It can't go lower probabilistically.
• 32:08
  I don't think it gets back to those levels again for sure.
• 32:14
  Piggybacking onto it. Joe said I think liquidity is
• 32:18
  really important, right? I often talk about Bitcoin as
• 32:20
  being the great absorber of liquidity and you have to take
• 32:23
  both sides of that. So if we're okay with it being
• 32:26
  the great absorber of liquidity during periods of liquidity
• 32:29
  expansion, what we've seen in the past is that Bitcoin does
• 32:33
  just exceedingly. Well, you also have to take the
• 32:36
  flip side of that and be okay with it.
• 32:38
  If liquidity is Contracting, lots of people are talking about
• 32:41
  liquidity. Now, you know, I I'm not
• 32:43
  certainly not the first one, but I better about that all the time
• 32:46
  on Twitter, you know, and I've seen it go from basically nobody
• 32:50
  talking about it to now, you see it all the time on Twitter and
• 32:54
  even on like the main news station, CNBC, Bloomberg and
• 32:58
  such. They're talking about that if
• 33:00
  we're going to be honest with ourselves.
• 33:02
  So net liquidity bottom did in the fourth quarter of 2022 that
• 33:07
  was very exciting, Bitcoin, sniff that out immediately and
• 33:10
  obviously had just a few A fantastic performance.
• 33:13
  But what I haven't seen anybody talked about since then,
• 33:15
  including one of the guys who's famous for talking about
• 33:18
  worldwide. Liquidity cross-border capital
• 33:21
  capital. He goes by on Twitter and his
• 33:23
  name is Michael Howell brilliant, man.
• 33:25
  He's fantastic. He puts out some of the best
• 33:27
  research on it, but what he hasn't shown and I think he
• 33:30
  should show and be a little more clear on is that worldwide,
• 33:34
  liquidity, basically peaked in February and it's since been
• 33:37
  coming down and coming down pretty substantially.
• 33:39
  And we've been seeing in the u.s. here, net.
• 33:41
  Quiddity peaked in mid-march and has since been coming down
• 33:45
  pretty dramatically as well. So it would be to me, it would
• 33:49
  be nonsensical to think that risk assets and especially
• 33:52
  Bitcoin being the great absorber of liquidity that it would
• 33:55
  perform well at least in the near term while liquidity is
• 33:58
  Contracting. So, that's something to consider
• 34:00
  when you have liquidity Contracting on top of an economy
• 34:03
  that slowing on top of a fed that's tightening on top of
• 34:07
  having this debate happening with the debt ceiling, you know?
• 34:11
  Coming to a head by June first. Those are many strikes going
• 34:15
  against risk assets at least in the short term.
• 34:17
  So so very much not bullish in the near term and you know, how
• 34:21
  low will Bitcoin go, I don't know, but I do think
• 34:24
  probabilistically speaking that it goes lower in the short term
• 34:27
  and if things don't improve from kind of a macro standpoint, it
• 34:30
  could continue to go a lower kind of in the medium term as
• 34:33
  well. Now, that's my whole caveat.
• 34:35
  All of that to say, I think that the, the longer term bull market
• 34:39
  has started. And I do think that word Out
• 34:42
  month five or six of the new approximately 35 month, bull
• 34:46
  market year. One of the bull markets
• 34:48
  generally are kind of the least impressive of the three years as
• 34:51
  we know. Right.
• 34:52
  Your to is a little better and then your three generally is
• 34:55
  amazing and that's when you see that parabolic blow off top, I
• 34:58
  still think it's basically, you know, based on past cycles and
• 35:01
  also based on business cycles and liquidity Cycles.
• 35:04
  All of these are kind of lining up to happen again where I think
• 35:07
  2023 is an okay year for Bitcoin.
• 35:09
  We've already. It's already been pretty
• 35:11
  impressive. It's far outperforming all other
• 35:13
  asset classes. I think that 2024 bodes even a
• 35:16
  little bit better and I think 2025 should be pretty fantastic
• 35:19
  year based on business Cycles based on the quiddity,
• 35:22
  obviously, I'm just looking into a crystal ball, totally guessing
• 35:25
  right, I have no idea what's really going to happen in 2025
• 35:28
  but I'm very optimistic that we're at the early stages of the
• 35:31
  next bull market. Yeah and go ahead Joe.
• 35:35
  Sorry I was just going to add so when you're talking about
• 35:37
  liquidity in everything, I agree with everything Jeff said there
• 35:40
  but I want to I want to point out just Distinction from how to
• 35:43
  look at this, okay? All liquidity is not created
• 35:46
  equal in end. That's really important.
• 35:48
  What I mean by that is, like, for example, people look at the
• 35:50
  FED balance sheet and they say up, fed added a ton of liquidity
• 35:54
  to its balance sheet in recent weeks because of the Silicon
• 35:56
  Valley Bank and the blow-up in the banking system.
• 35:58
  Well, well, three weeks later, the FED is taken out 50% of that
• 36:02
  liquidity through various programs, through expirations,
• 36:05
  through payback Sloane's, the spike you saw, it's almost half
• 36:08
  gone in three weeks and if it stays on this current Pace,
• 36:11
  okay? You're gonna have it all
• 36:12
  withdrawn, in addition to the QT that continues by this time next
• 36:16
  month. So the feds going to make a
• 36:17
  lower low next month on its balance sheet, combined with the
• 36:21
  fact that the treasury General count.
• 36:23
  Which as you know, is part of the fed's balance sheet that is
• 36:26
  being drawn down in a weekly basis because yelling can't
• 36:28
  issue new debt into the system because the debt ceiling, right?
• 36:31
  So all of these things just in the United States and we're just
• 36:33
  talking about us liquidity there from the TGA, and from the
• 36:37
  banking system, which again is going to be much closer, much
• 36:40
  more guarded in terms, Is lending to right now, in this
• 36:43
  environment given recessionary forces that are in play, all
• 36:47
  this is to say that, you know, liquidity little, you know, fits
• 36:50
  in spouts of liquidity, don't necessarily mean you're in a
• 36:53
  liquidity cycle, right? Like I said, if you throw a ball
• 36:56
  down a hill, it's going to bounce as it goes down the hill,
• 36:59
  it doesn't go straight down. That's not how markets work, and
• 37:01
  that's not liquidity works. Okay, there's seasonality with
• 37:04
  respect to the fed's balance sheet and the seasonality with
• 37:06
  respect to a lot of governments. Write a lot of governments tend
• 37:09
  to spend issue new debt. At Puri periods during the year.
• 37:13
  So you can see these little Pops in liquidity, doesn't mean it's
• 37:16
  a sustained, you know, the punch bowl is back and we're at the
• 37:19
  beginning of liquidity cycle, particularly given what their
• 37:21
  policy makers are trying to do, which is Stamp Out inflation.
• 37:26
  Yeah. So I want to, you know, take
• 37:29
  advantage of the 20 minutes that we have left left gentleman and
• 37:33
  I want to Pivot the conversation to the things I've been
• 37:38
  happening. The last couple months in terms
• 37:40
  of this this Uh, none of this pattern and I believe it's
• 37:44
  because of the weaponization of the dollar kind of force other
• 37:48
  countries to try to seek an alternative for the first time
• 37:52
  that you on overtook the dollar, to become the most used currency
• 37:57
  in China's cross-border. Transactions also came out that
• 38:01
  Russia and China. We're going to transact and
• 38:04
  Juwan. Also, I believe Argentina this
• 38:06
  very similar news. So it seems like people are
• 38:10
  choosing an native to the US dollar which is very bad news
• 38:14
  for Americans. If the u.s. uses loses its
• 38:18
  Global Reserve currency status. So what do you think that's just
• 38:22
  noise? Do you think that's even a
• 38:23
  possibility? Do you think that this is just
• 38:26
  these countries like pounding their chest?
• 38:30
  What's your guys takes on that? Okay, Joe.
• 38:34
  Yeah, so what I say on this issue is that I think that the
• 38:39
  answer lies really in the, in the middle between the two
• 38:41
  extremes, you'll see some folks that sort of say you know the
• 38:45
  death of the dollars here that this is going to fall apart and
• 38:47
  go off the rails in the next year or two and then you see
• 38:50
  other folks say this is you know, just will dismiss this, it
• 38:52
  doesn't really matter. It's insignificant, it's minor
• 38:55
  players, it's countries that don't have the the strength and
• 38:58
  a Gemini of the United States. And I think the real answer is
• 39:01
  that you should at least As what I expect.
• 39:04
  I expect that you're going to see continuing loss of what I
• 39:08
  would say, market share of the dollar globally through the
• 39:11
  remainder of this decade. And in the next decade, it's not
• 39:13
  going to be overnight, but it's something that is serious and
• 39:16
  it's going to make it harder for the u.s. to finance.
• 39:18
  Its structural deficits. And so that's something
• 39:21
  meaningful. You got to focus on, right?
• 39:23
  But this is still something where you're in the early
• 39:25
  Innings again and change happens, you know, as we say
• 39:29
  gradually, then suddenly and I think you could be waking up in
• 39:32
  10 years. And this conversation, we far
• 39:34
  more serious and will be attracting policymakers
• 39:38
  attention, much more acutely than it is right now.
• 39:41
  Right now, you've got, folks trying to do certain activities,
• 39:44
  they're trying to for search for alternatives are not happy with
• 39:47
  some of the economic efforts of the United States and some of
• 39:52
  the features of the, the euro dollar system, which is
• 39:55
  primarily what they're concerned about.
• 39:57
  However, okay, what I will note is that you've gotten many
• 40:00
  examples, anecdotes and reasons recent days.
• 40:03
  For example, I can India and Russia where they were trying to
• 40:07
  structure trade deals trying to structure the cell sale of oil
• 40:10
  in the Ruby, right? And Russia said no we don't want
• 40:13
  your rubies. We want dollars.
• 40:15
  Go, find dollars and there's I can give you a dozen other
• 40:18
  example similar to that where structurally still, even if
• 40:21
  they're writing law, rather settling other transactions in
• 40:25
  currencies other than the dollar, the actual face value of
• 40:28
  the contract, the notional value of the unit of account in
• 40:31
  Bitcoin, speak and money speak. He is still the dollar, right?
• 40:34
  Even if you don't have dollars themselves, when companies
• 40:38
  entities globally are doing transactions, they're doing
• 40:41
  transactions where the face value, the contract says you owe
• 40:44
  1 billion US Dollars payable in your currency of choice, okay?
• 40:48
  That all of that activity, even if it's not specific dollar
• 40:51
  activity, it's promotes the standard the unit of account of
• 40:55
  the dollar globally, which is how many finance and
• 40:58
  transactions occur. The vast majority of Trent
• 41:01
  financing transactions occur globally.
• 41:03
  Yeah. And what's your take on that?
• 41:04
  Dr. Oz almost exactly the same answer is Joe.
• 41:08
  I agree with what he said and and just to add to it, I mean,
• 41:11
  and we've been talking about this for a couple of years, I
• 41:13
  think we're moving to a multipolar world, right?
• 41:15
  And it doesn't happen overnight. This is the calls for the
• 41:19
  dollars demise are greatly exaggerated, right?
• 41:22
  I mean, it's going to be around for a very long time, but the
• 41:25
  trends are clear. It's clearly losing its status
• 41:27
  slowly as the world's Reserve currency.
• 41:30
  And I think the world's Reserve asset also is coming Under
• 41:33
  question very slowly though, this is going to take decades
• 41:36
  and decades to play out. I think a decade from now, most
• 41:39
  of the world's purchasing power is going to be in the u.s.
• 41:42
  dollar system, like it is currently the Chinese Yuan, the
• 41:45
  bricks Nation. I think that Coalition continues
• 41:47
  to get larger and larger and then Bitcoin as well.
• 41:50
  I think Bitcoin is kind of the Dark Horse, that's going to sort
• 41:52
  of come up from behind and sort of be, you know, inner playing
• 41:56
  throughout all this. It's hard to see how it's all
• 41:57
  going to play out. I don't think Bitcoin takes over
• 41:59
  the world you know, within five to ten years But it is growing
• 42:04
  quickly and it's not even on the radar of many people, but I
• 42:07
  think it will be on everybody's radar 10 years from now, for
• 42:10
  sure. So Joe like Avi and I completely
• 42:14
  agree with you dr. Ross.
• 42:15
  But it's interesting. So you say, 5 to 10 years I
• 42:18
  would say 15 to 20. I think Bitcoins inevitable
• 42:20
  Bitcoins incentives, stay winning.
• 42:23
  One of the, one of the breaking news that happened this week was
• 42:26
  the kingdom of Bhutan since 2020.
• 42:29
  Before, El Salvador was not only stacking Bitcoin.
• 42:33
  It using their massive hydroelectric capacity to mine
• 42:37
  Bitcoin and they were all doing it in secret.
• 42:39
  They weren't telling anybody they weren't telling anybody and
• 42:42
  the only reason that the people found out was because of the the
• 42:45
  Celsius lawsuit disclosure and I believe that there's a lot of
• 42:49
  other countries that are doing something very, very similar.
• 42:52
  So I guess the, the question to you Joe is, you know, the US
• 42:57
  government gets a tremendous amount of power from basically
• 43:01
  weaponizing the, the money, Right.
• 43:03
  It, which is the reason as to why these countries are seeking
• 43:05
  an alternative in the first place not to mention us
• 43:08
  sanctions policy which they use. I mean you can't even make the
• 43:13
  argument that is very effective but they use it tremendously
• 43:15
  specifically against countries that the u.s. government is not
• 43:19
  in good relations. With they have a lot to lose if
• 43:24
  people start to transact in Bitcoin, rather than dollars,
• 43:28
  which, you know, kind of coincides with, with operation
• 43:32
  trouble. 2.0. Right?
• 43:33
  Why? The B Administration doesn't
• 43:35
  feel so so good about Bitcoin. So I guess my question to you
• 43:38
  is, you know, Obviously they're going to try to stop it, but
• 43:45
  will they be successful? And what what do you think on
• 43:48
  the legal front? What do you think they can do?
• 43:52
  They can do. Well, we could talk for an hour
• 43:54
  about that. I mean they let me just go back
• 43:56
  for a second because I want to make one point.
• 43:58
  The dollar is really important but what's more important than
• 44:02
  the dollar is the treasury market?
• 44:04
  One of the reasons why the global dollar system the global
• 44:06
  eurodollar system works is because of the treasury market
• 44:09
  which is the underlying collateral.
• 44:11
  Oh, Hell by commercial banks that allow people to borrow
• 44:14
  against lend against do Financial activity.
• 44:16
  All on your treasuries, with that lifeblood of the
• 44:18
  treasury's, you can literally create money and the commercial
• 44:21
  banking system can create money with those treasuries.
• 44:24
  So just to talk about the evolution of this and how it
• 44:26
  pertains to bitcoin, right? What is a game-changer in my
• 44:29
  mind and I think, as Bitcoin as we tend to focus on what the
• 44:31
  government's going to do, just because there's this sort of
• 44:34
  Suspicion about the government in Bitcoin circles rightfully
• 44:36
  so. But I think what's far more
• 44:37
  impactful? As if you have private actors,
• 44:39
  the private commercial banking system, they And non-banks
• 44:42
  globally. If they start to use Bitcoin as
• 44:44
  reserves, which I think is probably more likely than a lot
• 44:47
  of people expect and allow you to borrow against land against
• 44:50
  use. Bitcoin is as real pristine
• 44:52
  collateral that's going to be a game changer and it will be a
• 44:55
  game changer in how credit is available throughout the world
• 44:57
  with an underpinning asset that you have really pure knowledge
• 45:01
  of what it is. Where it is, how who holds it?
• 45:03
  No custodial counterparty risk of banks.
• 45:05
  Hold it. But putting aside go, let's go
• 45:07
  back to your exact question, which I think you're saying what
• 45:10
  would governments do? So in the United States, what I
• 45:13
  fully expect is that it consistent with operation
• 45:17
  chokepoint 2.0 and there's some great Cooper and cook has a
• 45:19
  great report about this. I have to plug that because it's
• 45:21
  fantastic. It's the best, our you could
• 45:23
  spend reading. It's a Prestige report, by a
• 45:27
  very prestigious Law Firm that broke down.
• 45:28
  All of the anecdotal evidence out there.
• 45:31
  That shows there's been a coordinated concerted effort by
• 45:33
  us policymakers to clamp down, on exchanges and exchange
• 45:37
  activity. And what I would say from a
• 45:39
  Bitcoin of standpoint, everybody should You hyper sensitive to
• 45:42
  the fact that if you have any association or relationship with
• 45:45
  the US base exchange, they are squarely in the crosshairs.
• 45:49
  Now, after the blow-up of SV, s, BF + ft acts and all that
• 45:54
  happened in 2022. Right now.
• 45:56
  The policymakers have said, we're not going to get any
• 45:58
  legislation passed through the Congress.
• 46:00
  So, all the enforcement Chiefs, the cftc, the SEC, the E OJ, go
• 46:05
  out there and handle it, get control of this industry and
• 46:07
  what you've seen through a lot of evidence.
• 46:09
  Now is that they're trying to To make it harder to transfer money
• 46:13
  to exchanges. They're trying to, I mean,
• 46:15
  there's Public Accounts of ACH rails being taken down.
• 46:18
  There's banking partners that are being told, we don't want
• 46:21
  you doing business with these exchanges, and I don't
• 46:24
  anticipate a direct attack on bitcoin or people that are
• 46:27
  holding Bitcoin. I see it as sort of a cold war
• 46:30
  where they just say fine, you want to hold Bitcoin.
• 46:31
  In your self storage, you know, Hardware wallets.
• 46:35
  Great, have it all you want, but if you want to convert it to
• 46:38
  cash, if you want to get it in the Fiat, if you want to do
• 46:40
  anything with respect, To you know pivoting out of the Bitcoin
• 46:43
  natives ecosystem and having to go on to an exchange.
• 46:46
  It's going to become increasingly difficult.
• 46:48
  I expect new kyc requirements. I expect new requirements.
• 46:51
  With respect to withdrawals, you requirements for money, coming
• 46:54
  onto the exchanges and off. All of this will accelerate into
• 46:57
  the near future. And if you're a platform that is
• 46:59
  selling anything, that could remotely be considered a
• 47:02
  security. I expect enforcement actions to
• 47:04
  come against you. Obviously, I'm sure you've heard
• 47:06
  about the wells notice. That was issued to coinbase.
• 47:08
  The clock is ticking on a the wells noticed, the coin based
• 47:11
  The SEC is going to file suit at some point before, the beginning
• 47:14
  of September because there's a finite date with they have to
• 47:17
  file the suit. So you're going to see a lot of
• 47:19
  this activity and I think the idea is maybe we can scare the
• 47:23
  general public, maybe if we do enough of this, we can scare the
• 47:26
  general public into. You don't want to mess around
• 47:28
  with this this crypto stuff because it's just too dangerous
• 47:31
  for your own good. And maybe that's the best way
• 47:33
  they think they can. You can stamp it out just from a
• 47:36
  reputational standpoint attack, the institutions and make them
• 47:39
  general public. Think it's not safe to do
• 47:41
  business. With these guys because of their
• 47:43
  association with terrorism or illicit drugs or whatever.
• 47:47
  Yeah. And then my favorite, my
• 47:48
  favorite buzzword, the financial stability.
• 47:51
  Yeah. So yeah, it's interesting and
• 47:55
  it's funny that you said that I remember seeing this in a tweet
• 47:58
  that one of the new requirements from coinbase for you to
• 48:03
  withdraw, would be to list the name and the address of the
• 48:07
  individual of which you were sending that withdrawal to just
• 48:10
  very Euler to how the Fiat system works.
• 48:13
  But again the enforcement mechanism isn't quite there.
• 48:17
  Once you get your money off the exchange altogether.
• 48:21
  So I mean the best that they could do is they could really
• 48:24
  like slow down the wood drawers but once it's out like for
• 48:30
  example like it once someone is fully orange pilled What
• 48:35
  incentive do you have to go back to the traditional Financial
• 48:38
  system? You know you don't really have
• 48:40
  that incentive and I guess maybe I'm looking at it from a you
• 48:43
  know crazy Bitcoin or lens. The idea of trusting someone
• 48:49
  else holding my money is absolutely absurd at this point,
• 48:52
  right? And I think that as time
• 48:53
  progresses in the system starts to break more and more and more.
• 48:57
  I think that question, I mean, you see you saw Tim pool, ask it
• 49:02
  in is very, very popular podcast.
• 49:05
  First Republic is going down. He read the quote that I read
• 49:08
  you guys in the very beginning of the show and he said, f that
• 49:11
  I'm putting my money in Bitcoin and I think that more and more
• 49:15
  as time progresses and just clown World continues to
• 49:19
  accelerate. I think more and more people are
• 49:21
  going to ask that question, but I do agree with you, Joe 100%.
• 49:25
  I think that they're going to, they're going to do whatever it
• 49:27
  takes to, at least slow down the adoption of this thing, dr.
• 49:32
  Ross, I'm gonna pass it on to you.
• 49:33
  What's your take on all this? Well again, I actually agree
• 49:36
  with all of Joe's take. I think we gotta find something
• 49:38
  to disagree about Joe but I would have answered it.
• 49:40
  Just the same, he was more eloquent, but I will say the one
• 49:43
  problem so far is I agree with you.
• 49:45
  Why would any Bitcoin or want to go back to the system?
• 49:48
  I'll say from personal experience because we still have
• 49:50
  to use the, the traditional system, right?
• 49:52
  I still have bills to pay, I have a mortgage, you know, you I
• 49:55
  can't pay that stuff directly with Bitcoin yet.
• 49:58
  So the Bitcoin ecosystem is rapidly being constructed and
• 50:02
  built out that infrastructure is being built.
• 50:04
  But it's still nowhere near robust enough so that people can
• 50:07
  live solely on a Bitcoin standard for the most part,
• 50:10
  there are Exceptions. There are places in the world
• 50:12
  where you can certainly cannot do it yet in America, right?
• 50:15
  I can't go to the grocery store yet and buy my groceries with
• 50:18
  Bitcoin. You can you can do work around,
• 50:20
  you can get gift cards, you can do these things.
• 50:22
  But until that system is robust and complete and totally
• 50:26
  fulfills all of those roles we're still stuck with this kind
• 50:29
  of awkward hybrid system and I think that's going to be with us
• 50:31
  for at least a few more years yet I was hoping That it would
• 50:35
  be better. You know I remember listening to
• 50:36
  Jack Mallory is talk at the Bitcoin conference in Miami last
• 50:40
  year and I was I came back from that telling all my friends and
• 50:42
  family that you're going to be able to pay you know, buy your
• 50:45
  groceries at the grocery store with Bitcoin before 2022 is over
• 50:49
  because that was the timeline he was saying, right?
• 50:51
  And it didn't happen and he came out and publicly apologized.
• 50:54
  He said, I got too excited about it.
• 50:56
  This was way harder than I thought it was going to be.
• 50:57
  I think The Regulators are probably making it harder,
• 51:00
  right? Yeah, they're they're gumming up
• 51:01
  the gears for sure. But that's what I would say.
• 51:04
  You are a Bitcoin developer and you're building in the space.
• 51:07
  God bless you like get it going like get this parallel system up
• 51:11
  and running so that if we do, you know.
• 51:13
  So if operation choke point 2.0 is massively effective and they
• 51:18
  start shutting down all the pathways, we need to have the
• 51:21
  parallel monetary and financial system up and running, right?
• 51:25
  We need to be able to go buy our groceries and everything else
• 51:28
  with Bitcoin. And in that case, then we're
• 51:29
  kind of, I don't want to say Untouchable, but man, it's a lot
• 51:33
  harder for the regulator Has to get their tentacles into what,
• 51:36
  what the bitcoiners are doing at that point.
• 51:38
  Yeah, 100%. And that's actually one of the
• 51:40
  thing. And I had it pinned on my
• 51:41
  Twitter for the longest time, which is this idea of if enough
• 51:45
  people take self custody, we will win this thing and there's
• 51:48
  absolutely nothing they could do about it.
• 51:50
  I actually have a theory about what you said, dr.
• 51:53
  Ross, I want to pass it on to Joe is I think when El Salvador
• 51:58
  made Bitcoin legal tender, it completely caught them off
• 52:01
  guard. And the reason I said that is
• 52:03
  that they actually passed the resolution.
• 52:04
  Lucien, it was either in the senate or the house.
• 52:07
  Literally the purpose of that resolution was to look into El
• 52:11
  Salvador and the fact that I'll Salvador made Bitcoin legal
• 52:14
  tender. And I think after that, The
• 52:16
  Regulators really woke up, and I think that it really just slow
• 52:21
  down the process. I remember it was 20 21 that he
• 52:23
  made that announcement in 2022. Everyone was anticipating
• 52:27
  another country, but it's almost as if you know it kind of got
• 52:31
  slow down and someone someone put on the brakes.
• 52:34
  All right, so yeah, I agree. I think there's massive amount
• 52:39
  of pushback in the background and I want to get your guys
• 52:42
  takes on this. Something that I was, I was
• 52:45
  very, I was very, very heated about was very passionate about,
• 52:48
  it was over the weekend where the IMF and one of their
• 52:52
  conditions to bail out Argentina.
• 52:54
  Was that Argent the Argentinian government?
• 52:56
  Must D, incentivize the adoption of Bitcoin and shit coins in the
• 53:00
  country fast forward after that announcement was made fast.
• 53:04
  Year argentinians are currently suffering through 104 percent
• 53:08
  inflation. Around the same time.
• 53:11
  This was when the IMF sent their message to all Salvador saying
• 53:15
  I'll Salvador, by making Bitcoin, legal tender, it would
• 53:18
  destroy the financial stability of El Salvador.
• 53:21
  It was, it was going to be terrible fast forward a year.
• 53:24
  El Salvador is, is currently experiencing peace and
• 53:28
  prosperity. The likes of which have never
• 53:30
  been seen before. So I guess my question to you
• 53:32
  guys is what is what? What is truly the purpose of the
• 53:36
  IMF? Because I think what we've been
• 53:38
  told the purpose of the IMF isn't really what the IMF is for
• 53:43
  and I know Alex gladstein has done an incredible job looking
• 53:47
  into this matter and he just released a new book but I'm just
• 53:50
  very curious to hear what you guys think.
• 53:53
  Joe Joe, why don't you go first? So there have been
• 53:59
  well-documented criticism to the IMF for for many years and And I
• 54:04
  think their policies are a perfect example of when a
• 54:09
  government is involved, there can be all sorts of unintended
• 54:11
  consequences. I will tell you that, you know,
• 54:15
  I don't necessarily think that the folks at set out and build
• 54:19
  these organizations are necessarily evil per se.
• 54:22
  I just think it's misguided and I think that some of the times
• 54:25
  they put forward plans, they think, you know, will be in the
• 54:29
  best interest of that country, right?
• 54:31
  This is going to be good for you, right?
• 54:33
  You take this medicine. And you'll feel better when in
• 54:35
  reality actually hurts and paralyzes the country.
• 54:39
  That's my comment on that. I don't want to get too much
• 54:40
  more into that. I got to be careful with some of
• 54:43
  the compliance folks that may watch this at my firm.
• 54:45
  So let me just say that there enough dr.
• 54:48
  Ross, what's your take again? I agree.
• 54:51
  I think it wasn't intended to be harmful.
• 54:53
  I think it was intended to help, but the law of unintended
• 54:57
  consequences. Suggest that as the as the
• 55:01
  system progressed, maybe there were some unintended
• 55:04
  consequences. Quinces that have been fairly
• 55:07
  destructive. I like the work that Alex
• 55:09
  gladstein does on this. I think it's very provocative
• 55:11
  thought provoking, you know, if you believe that debt is a form
• 55:15
  of slavery and they're basically exporting debt to countries you
• 55:21
  can, you can make arguments that it's helping a nation and you
• 55:24
  can make efforts that it's hurting a nation to, you know,
• 55:27
  offer that extend the credit to them.
• 55:29
  And so like, Joe, I got to be careful what I say to but I'm
• 55:34
  you know, There's good and there's bad and it's the bigger
• 55:37
  it gets and the longer it goes on it tends to lean more towards
• 55:41
  it gets kind of worse and worse as these systems, grow larger.
• 55:44
  So if I could just go back for one second to something you
• 55:47
  said, which I think is really key.
• 55:49
  So at its core, I think that the idea of Bitcoin is fundamentally
• 55:54
  American, right? I think it aligns with the
• 55:56
  spirit and promise of America and I I if you're going to have
• 56:01
  all these, you know, this clamp down and chokepoint 2.0 and make
• 56:03
  it more difficult. People in some ways that can be
• 56:06
  a positive in the long run and let me explain why the, the more
• 56:10
  aggressive that Central planners and policy makers are and
• 56:15
  unjustifiably. So, it sets up what I call taste
• 56:18
  test cases. And I'm involved in some of
• 56:20
  those now, you won't hear about them because I can't really talk
• 56:23
  about clients. They wouldn't appreciate me.
• 56:25
  You know, mention them by name, but there are increasingly,
• 56:28
  there are millions of Americans who hold Bitcoin who they have
• 56:32
  personal philosophies that align with what Bitcoin is.
• 56:34
  Trying to do. And there are judges right,
• 56:37
  there are lawyers, there's a whole group of people in the
• 56:40
  legal industry. You'd be surprised who actually
• 56:43
  had they understand the spirit and the core of what Bitcoin is
• 56:45
  trying to accomplish. And if the policymakers do what
• 56:48
  I think are unconstitutional and unlawful restrictions on
• 56:52
  people's ability to save their value to save their hard-earned
• 56:55
  dollars in a something much stronger form of money.
• 56:59
  That will that will trigger people to go forward and fight
• 57:02
  these things in courtrooms across the One of my biggest
• 57:05
  frustrations with the, you know, representing bitcoiners is that
• 57:08
  sometimes I have a great case, a case I would say this is a
• 57:11
  wonderful test case if we were to pursue litigation on this, it
• 57:14
  wouldn't cost a ton of money and it would set a precedent for
• 57:17
  people moving forward. And that's how you develop law
• 57:19
  that can be really strong and protect the individual
• 57:23
  sovereignty, and Liberty of people out there.
• 57:25
  So, I think I sense a change because I early bitcoiners that
• 57:28
  I've represented work with. They very, very reluctant and
• 57:31
  suspicious of the justice system and the legal system, rather In
• 57:35
  general they don't want you involved the newer breeds in the
• 57:37
  last few years, you know sophisticated High net worth
• 57:41
  individuals, they say this is BS.
• 57:43
  You know these rules, they're imposing these exchanges and how
• 57:45
  they're they're totally screwing us on many levels.
• 57:49
  We're going to involve, we're going to fight this because
• 57:50
  we're right in the law is on our side.
• 57:52
  And once you do that, and once enough people do that, you
• 57:55
  again, you set up those test cases in those precedents moving
• 57:58
  forward. So I say, for chokepoint 2.0,
• 58:01
  bring it on. We'll fight him in the
• 58:02
  courtrooms and we will eventually win.
• 58:04
  That's Maybe I'm overly naive and optimistic but I believe it,
• 58:08
  there we go. Yes, okay all right Joe, I
• 58:11
  really appreciate I really appreciate you saying it that
• 58:15
  way. And yeah, I completely agree.
• 58:19
  You know, Cory has the theory the race to avoid the war, you
• 58:22
  know, we want a transient majority of 10 million
• 58:26
  bitcoiners in the United States. So that if there's any, you
• 58:30
  know, potential anti Bitcoin regulation, you know, Coming up.
• 58:35
  It just becomes impossible possible to pass just like the
• 58:37
  just like the gun lobby, right? Try passing a gun law in the
• 58:40
  u.s. it's literally like almost impossible.
• 58:42
  Exactly. So yeah, Joe and that was very
• 58:45
  inspirational answer and I'm very, very glad that you gave us
• 58:48
  your outlook on that side because not that many people
• 58:51
  have, you know, the that that perspective on things,
• 58:55
  especially because of where you work in your field.
• 58:59
  So to end guys just kind of wrap it up and you know, to at least
• 59:04
  provide Value to our listeners. In the end of the wrapping up of
• 59:08
  this conversation. What do you?
• 59:12
  Let's start off with you, dr. Ross, what are you looking at
• 59:15
  nowadays? What is, what is the most
• 59:17
  interesting thing? And what piece of advice, not
• 59:19
  Financial advice, just piece of advice.
• 59:21
  Friendly advice, would you give to anybody heading into the next
• 59:26
  6 to 12 months? Who has a good?
• 59:30
  That's a good question. Well, I think anybody who's been
• 59:32
  paying attention at all, realizes that something is up,
• 59:34
  right? When you see Banks collapse,
• 59:36
  that's not normal. When you see, you know, people
• 59:39
  talking about recession and people starting to panic a
• 59:41
  little bit. None of this is normal.
• 59:43
  This is, this is kind of the downside of these these asset
• 59:46
  bubbles, that get inflated. Now, we're seeing them get
• 59:49
  deflated and, you know, down right pop that can make life
• 59:52
  difficult for people. And so I would just challenge
• 59:54
  people to, you know, really think hard about how you Can
• 59:58
  protect yourself and your family and your purchasing power in the
• 1:00:02
  near term in the coming year. If we have a tumultuous coming
• 1:00:05
  year, if the economy gets really rough, if people start losing
• 1:00:09
  their jobs, men do everything. You can to keep your job, you
• 1:00:13
  know, keep your head down. I would strongly recommend
• 1:00:17
  considering to figure out what what makes Bitcoin and I would
• 1:00:22
  even throw a gold in there if you want to especially for older
• 1:00:24
  folks. What makes those different wire?
• 1:00:27
  Why do we call? All those hard money.
• 1:00:28
  What's different about Bitcoin? Compared to government Fiat?
• 1:00:32
  And if Fiat is basically programmed to take your
• 1:00:35
  purchasing power methodically year-over-year, what are some
• 1:00:39
  ways that you can actually, preserve your purchasing power?
• 1:00:42
  It's different for everybody, you know, I come from the
• 1:00:44
  finance industry. So so I grew up talking about
• 1:00:47
  stocks and bonds and thinking about things like that in real
• 1:00:49
  estate and whatnot. But there are, there is a kind
• 1:00:52
  of money that literally it was designed to not only protect,
• 1:00:56
  but appreciate your purchase. And power over time.
• 1:00:59
  And so I would consider looking into that and taking the time to
• 1:01:01
  learn a little bit more about Bitcoin, especially over the
• 1:01:04
  coming six to 12 months and thank you.
• 1:01:07
  Thank you, dr. Ross and same question to you.
• 1:01:09
  Joe, is there any indicators or anything that you know, is on
• 1:01:13
  your radar that you're looking at?
• 1:01:14
  Is that the unemployment rate? What are you looking at and what
• 1:01:17
  piece of advice, would you give to Friendly advice?
• 1:01:20
  Not Financial advice to anybody watching the show, heading into
• 1:01:24
  the next 6 to 12 months? Well, thanks again for having me
• 1:01:27
  on, what L say is this. Let me give you two things just
• 1:01:30
  to look at in terms of the broader crypto landscape.
• 1:01:32
  So I still think you're going to see a series of new enforcement
• 1:01:36
  actions filed. We've only seen the tip of the
• 1:01:38
  iceberg over the next say 90 to 120 days.
• 1:01:41
  Most notably the coinbase filing when you get that filing, okay?
• 1:01:44
  When it comes out, a scroll to the end and and there's
• 1:01:47
  something called the prayer for relief in before you read the
• 1:01:49
  bad news articles about you know, legal journalism and
• 1:01:52
  whatnot. Read the prayer for relief in
• 1:01:54
  that complaint that's filed by the SEC.
• 1:01:56
  See how broad it is? See if it seeks an order asking
• 1:01:59
  coinbase to suspend their exchange or suspend, the trade a
• 1:02:03
  certain assets that's going to be huge.
• 1:02:05
  I mean, that could be an existential threat for coinbase
• 1:02:07
  and every other public Exchange in the United States.
• 1:02:09
  So that's really key. It's probably the biggest story
• 1:02:11
  in quote, unquote, crypto as we move forward.
• 1:02:14
  But for the economy, okay, which is, I think what you're trying
• 1:02:17
  to get mostly at with it, with your question, the two things
• 1:02:20
  that I'm looking at again, continue to be the credit
• 1:02:22
  markets. I still have seen, you know, the
• 1:02:26
  Spreads hold up reasonably. Well, I expect those to blow out
• 1:02:29
  at some point this summer. As we get closer to a recession,
• 1:02:33
  I think unemployment will be the last thing that really gets this
• 1:02:36
  accelerate first. You know, there's a sequence of
• 1:02:38
  all this first is the credit deterioration and once the
• 1:02:41
  credit deteriorates, then companies which have are starved
• 1:02:44
  to that credit then they have to start letting go of workers.
• 1:02:47
  And I think because of shortages in the labor market and the fear
• 1:02:50
  of not having workers, they're going to prolong people on the
• 1:02:53
  payrolls for much longer than they.
• 1:02:54
  Probably should they're going to err on the side of keeping
• 1:02:56
  people. Unemployed probably into the
• 1:02:57
  later part of this year, but those credit spreads are key.
• 1:03:02
  Any metric, you want to look at it, will all tell you the same
• 1:03:04
  story. Look at those private credit,
• 1:03:05
  spreads, particularly at the high yield.
• 1:03:07
  And and then the other thing which I think is far more
• 1:03:09
  leading and important to look at is look at some of the commodity
• 1:03:12
  prices, look at the action and copper and oil.
• 1:03:15
  And if you notice noted today, what everybody's talking about
• 1:03:18
  the banks and the Regional Bank blow up to me what was far more
• 1:03:22
  interesting is what's going on with the XLE, which is the
• 1:03:24
  energy sector ETF. And Also, the price of oil,
• 1:03:27
  right? You you will recall a few weeks
• 1:03:29
  back. I think it was the Saudis
• 1:03:30
  announce those production cuts and they were trying to shore up
• 1:03:33
  the oil Market to say listen we need to, we need to make sure we
• 1:03:36
  maintain price stability. It popped, then went straight
• 1:03:40
  down, right? It's been a freefall selling
• 1:03:42
  mode, which aisle is so important to lifeblood of our
• 1:03:44
  economy and it's not bullish. That oil is selling off like
• 1:03:48
  that, right? If we were entering a new growth
• 1:03:50
  cycle if China reopening was going to propel us to a
• 1:03:52
  long-term economic growth period for the next two years, Nazi oil
• 1:03:57
  for performing like it is right now.
• 1:03:59
  So if you want to pull those things up high yield spreads oil
• 1:04:02
  copper, they'll tell you the signal in a bar before the stock
• 1:04:06
  market, or the S&P 500, which isn't particularly meaningful on
• 1:04:09
  economic growth, interesting. Well, Joe dr.
• 1:04:14
  Ross, it's truly been a privilege to have you guys
• 1:04:16
  together on this simply Bitcoin IRL.
• 1:04:19
  Thank you guys so much for coming on the show, dr.
• 1:04:21
  Ross, wedding and tell everybody where they could find you on the
• 1:04:23
  interwebs and then we'll move on to Joe.
• 1:04:25
  Sure. So I'm I'm on Twitter all the
• 1:04:27
  time, you can find me. My handle is at Vail shower cap
• 1:04:30
  other or you can also, you know, I run a hedge fund and
• 1:04:34
  investment advisory that's at Vail share.com, if you're
• 1:04:37
  interested, you can actually shoot me an e-mail directly.
• 1:04:39
  If you're interested to know more about that, info at Vale
• 1:04:42
  Shire.com, and I just got to say, Nico, thanks so much for
• 1:04:45
  having me again and having me on with Joe love.
• 1:04:48
  Doing these kind of things with Joe.
• 1:04:49
  He's brilliant and and really fun to talk to.
• 1:04:52
  So thanks for. Thanks for having me on always
• 1:04:54
  dr. Ross and hope to hope to have On
• 1:04:56
  again, in the future as well. So what about you Joe?
• 1:04:58
  Where can people find you on the interwebs?
• 1:05:01
  Yeah, I my Twitter is at joão Carlos re probably easier way if
• 1:05:04
  you Google me, you'll see my firm.
• 1:05:07
  It'll pop up amundsen Davis. I'm a partner there and I didn't
• 1:05:10
  mention that I need to do that. I specialize in litigated
• 1:05:13
  disputes involving you know, commercial transactions,
• 1:05:17
  commercial entities, anything with respect to breaches of
• 1:05:19
  fiduciary duty contract disputes.
• 1:05:22
  So if you have a litigator dispute and your Bitcoin ER
• 1:05:24
  please reach out. I'd love to help you and fight.
• 1:05:26
  Pretty hard for you in the courtroom awesome.
• 1:05:28
  Well gentlemen, thank you again for joining me on simply Bitcoin
• 1:05:31
  IRL if you don't mind hanging out backstage for a second.
• 1:05:33
  While I wrap it up, guys. Thank you so much for tuning in.
• 1:05:36
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• 1:05:38
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• 1:05:41
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• 1:05:43
  Bitcoin. 2023 will see you tomorrow for the live show.
• 1:05:47
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• 1:05:49
  See you guys tomorrow.