Latest / The Fourcast / Labour civil war ERUPTS - can Starmer survive?

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Labour civil war ERUPTS - can Starmer survive? · The Fourcast

0:00
Everyone's spinning it the way they want.
0:01
There's lines coming out of people close to Kier who are
0:03
saying Wayne's broke the first rule of politics if she's
0:05
learning how to count. Let's assume for a moment Andy
0:07
Burnham does come back. It is an Andy Burnham V West
0:11
Streeting contest. The game changes a bit, doesn't
0:14
it? Because.
0:15
I still think it's extremely possible we may now have no
0:17
contest at all. Angela Rayner, She has not even
0:20
been found to be casually. She has just paid the correct
0:22
bill. She's done nothing wrong.
0:24
So doesn't that put her back in the game?
0:26
There is a perception, because he has added to this, that he's
0:31
a man who has been scheming for this for his entire political
0:35
career. That's literally what politics
0:37
has. Done.
0:38
Everyone does it quite so nakedly.
0:43
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
0:44
Where in Westminster, where we need vision, we have a vacuum.
0:48
Where we need direction, we have drift.
0:51
Where? Streeting resigned from the
0:52
government with a pretty damning assessment of Keir Starmer's
0:55
failings. But the former health secretary
0:57
hasn't launched a leadership campaign, instead saying there
1:00
needs to be a broad debate and implying he wants to see Andy
1:04
Burnham as one of the candidates.
1:05
So what happened? Did he have the 80 backers in
1:09
Parliament he needed, or are Labour MPs still waiting for
1:12
Andy? No other cabinet ministers have
1:14
followed. We're streeting out, though
1:16
there is talk of some of them going to the PM to once again
1:19
press the case for a timetable for him to leave.
1:23
And then there's Angela Rayner, who, with astonishing timing,
1:26
has been cleared by HMRC of even being careless over her tax
1:31
bill. Is she back in Burnham or might
1:33
she run herself? Right now, Keir Starmer's allies
1:36
are probably quite content that he's seen off streeting for now.
1:40
But what next? Our senior political
1:42
correspondent Paul McNamara is here and Alison Phillips, chief
1:46
executive of the think tank Think Labour, formerly known as
1:50
Labour Together, which was central to the Starmer project.
1:53
Does it's repositioning reflect the shift in Labour politics
1:57
itself? We will get to all of that in a
1:59
moment. But Paul, first of all, what
2:00
happened? You know, last night we were
2:02
expecting West Streeting to go in, quit and announced that he
2:06
was standing to be leader of the Labour Party, that Ed Miliband
2:08
might do the same. But it didn't work out that way
2:11
this morning. Yeah, I don't think last night
2:13
we were expecting an Angela Rayner shaped grenade to be
2:16
lobbed into the middle of of all of this.
2:18
That did happen at 6:30 this morning when I was done this
2:21
interview saying that's it, I've been cleared by HMRC.
2:24
W Streeting was not expecting that, but the wheels were
2:28
already coming off. I spoke to a Labour MP who's on
2:32
the Downing St. list of, you know, loyal to Keir Starmer.
2:35
They got a call from Team Streeting saying, oh, can we
2:38
rely on your support? That probably tells you that so.
2:40
We're still trying to get the numbers.
2:42
Still trying to get numbers. One of Angela's Arena's allies
2:45
telling me today they had exactly the same call.
2:47
So where street is people today, God love them, they are putting
2:51
the effort in saying we had the numbers.
2:53
I mean these people would say that exactly.
2:55
They're on the other side, so they're kind of rubbish.
2:58
Wes. Yeah.
2:59
And Wes treating people are still saying they do have the
3:01
numbers, they just didn't want to fire the starting gun yet.
3:05
Do you do you buy this, Alison? I think that there were so many
3:10
different stories coming out and as you say, everyone's spinning
3:12
it the way they want. So at the moment there's lines
3:15
coming out of people close to Keir who are saying Wes broke
3:18
the first rule of politics. She's learning how to count and
3:20
he didn't count and he didn't have the numbers.
3:22
But I still wonder if there is there is something around the
3:25
timing and that there may yet be one more cat out rabbit out of
3:30
the hat that we're going to see that I, I still think there may
3:33
be something yet to come from Wes.
3:36
No, I'm not saying that. I just think that I think that
3:39
the certainty with which it was being spoken about not so long
3:42
ago that there is there is, there could still be more to to
3:45
be seen. Like what?
3:47
Well, I think that I think that there is a sense that he may
3:50
have the numbers. Yes, but but what he said in his
3:54
letter, which is really interesting isn't it, is, you
3:57
know, he's done his critique and he's done his haven't, haven't I
4:00
done well in the NHS and we've got great numbers out today.
4:04
And so I'm clearly a man who can turn things around.
4:07
But what he said in terms of the leadership campaign now is that
4:10
there should be a broad debate. He's sounding a bit like John
4:13
McDonnell was last week. There should be a broad debate.
4:16
It should go on for time and we should have a a very broad
4:19
spread of of the top talent, which is basically saying Andy
4:22
Burnham. But why would he be doing that?
4:24
If you speak to people in the West camp, they say this is a
4:27
masterstroke by Wes. You know, this morning I was
4:30
saying now he's he's a busted flush Now he's lost it.
4:33
No, this is a master strategy. He can come out now.
4:36
He wants to be a broad church. He wants to actually win this,
4:40
not just sort of get slip in by default.
4:42
And you know, you have it to be this big race dates with Andy
4:45
Burnham and they back him to win any debate going win over the
4:49
whole nation. Of course they would say that
4:51
because because they're on, they're on team ways.
4:54
But this, but this now becomes a long game, isn't it?
4:57
And we could have a long leadership contest.
5:00
And let's let's assume, which is not a given, but let's assume
5:04
for a moment Andy Burnham does come back and that, you know, it
5:08
is an Andy Burnham VW streeting contest.
5:13
You know the, the game changes a bit, doesn't it?
5:15
Because. I still think it's extremely
5:17
possible. We may now have no contest at
5:18
all. These things can continue for a
5:21
very, very long time. And that I know that it feels in
5:23
the media, there's been this frenetic energy of this week,
5:26
but we could get into next week and things could calm down and
5:29
we just and everything but that that could well happen.
5:33
That is, that is a possibility. But I think with, with if, if
5:38
Andy Burnham is to enter the contest, if there is a contest
5:41
and he enters, then yes, we'll probably be looking close to
5:44
conference sort of towards September.
5:47
And then that would be a very different proposition at that
5:49
point. Now, in her interview, Angela
5:53
Rayner said she doesn't do deals when asked whether is there a
5:58
deal with Andy Burnham. Do we believe that?
6:01
I mean, cakes can change. I mean she doesn't do deals
6:04
right now, but it could be a long summer.
6:07
There might be a nice job that is offered where she to come
6:10
into cahoots with Andy Burnham. So as much as any MP will say I
6:14
don't do deals, are you running? I'm not running until they are
6:18
running. These things are always are
6:20
always in play, and Andrea really could be the kingmaker.
6:23
But I mean, everyone's assuming she doesn't want to run against
6:26
Andy Burnham. Is that based on anything other
6:29
than a hunch? It's a common consensus.
6:31
You talk to, you talk to her. Oh, go on.
6:33
You look like you're about to jump in there.
6:35
I mean, I just think that that there is a general sense that
6:39
that if we do get to a contest within the membership, Andy
6:42
Burnham is incredibly popular and would likely win.
6:45
And there is also a sense I think within the membership that
6:48
that that they will be looking for somebody like here who they
6:51
could believe could win a general election.
6:53
And I think that's why it puts it really through Kier and Andy,
6:56
but. Wasn't the trouble with Angela
6:58
Rayner as an idea for the leadership that she would have
7:02
this tax thing hanging over her? You know, how could you possibly
7:05
have somebody standing to be Prime Minister and being Prime
7:09
Minister who had failed to pay the right tax?
7:11
This exoneration? I mean, we haven't seen the
7:14
text, but if it is what she says, it is an absolute
7:17
exoneration. She has not even been found to
7:19
be absolutely. She has just paid the correct
7:21
bill. It was an ambiguous tax law.
7:25
She's done nothing wrong. So doesn't that put her back in
7:28
the game? It.
7:29
Absolutely puts back in your name if she wants to be in the
7:31
game. And there's always been an
7:32
assumption that she does by many people.
7:35
But I think there's also, you know, sometimes she's sort of
7:39
not necessarily wanted that as much as maybe some of the people
7:41
around her have wanted that. So I, I and I do think, I think
7:46
you can call it deals or you can call it that.
7:48
There are a lot of people who've known each other a very long
7:50
time who if they felt that they could come up with the structure
7:52
that worked. They're not all necessarily
7:54
after the top job in the way that people perhaps always
7:56
imagine. I know that sounds slightly
7:58
dull, but I think it's true. There is something in there as
8:01
well. I think there are an awful lot
8:02
of people in if you look at the the narratives that are out
8:08
there, That's right. Everyone's killing each other to
8:10
fight for the for the top job, right?
8:12
They all want care out. They want the job for
8:14
themselves. Actually there is an awful,
8:16
there is an awful lot of sentiment and feeling out there
8:19
of how are we going to look in the public here.
8:22
So if there are sensible deals to be done, if there are, OK,
8:25
this might speed up the process. OK, this might be something
8:27
that's more palatable for the electorate and for our
8:30
membership. That's a sensible way forward.
8:33
And also, I mean, I know, and as a speaking formal journalist,
8:36
I'm not criticising anybody, but I know this is obviously
8:39
journalism as entertainment. But I think you've got to
8:42
remember that for all the people that we're talking about that
8:44
are involved in this, this has all come out of what happened
8:47
last week at the local elections and what were horrendous
8:50
results. And everybody, but everybody is
8:52
looking to themselves and looking across the party and
8:54
thinking what went wrong? How did things go so
8:56
catastrophically wrong in the space of two years?
8:58
And what do we do, what do we do together to try and come back
9:02
from that position? And I think.
9:03
Maybe you should go back to Labour together.
9:06
Not Labour together and you know, so we so now we've
9:09
reemerged and we're think Labour and we're doing really big piece
9:11
of work that comes out tomorrow, which is about how does Labour
9:14
reassemble a coalition that can win at the next election?
9:17
And there is nothing simple about that.
9:19
That is not a lush to the left. It is not a sort of a carry on,
9:23
you know, the idea of like chasing the right, that's not
9:25
going to work either. It is a very complicated
9:28
coalition of bringing people together and that is going to
9:30
require lots of different talents, lots of sort of
9:33
different ideological viewpoints, but finding a way of
9:35
coalescing. Yes, I mean, so do you think
9:38
this, I mean, there has been real vitriol against W Streeting
9:43
in the last few years, a lot of hate, which as you say, doesn't
9:48
bode well for the future where Labour has to, you know, work as
9:53
a left, right coalition in government to actually be
9:56
effective. I think that's true, but also I
9:59
think we have to sort of remember that some of that stuff
10:02
that gets reposted on Twitter, that could come be coming from a
10:05
very small number of people, but it gets amplified.
10:08
So the whole thing feels a lot more angry and vicious than than
10:13
it necessarily is. But I, I think all of that is
10:15
really, really destructive. And it sends out this message to
10:17
the wider public that there is this sense of chaos, which is
10:21
what I think the party really does need to guard against if
10:24
it's to move. Forward, Paul Why?
10:26
Why is West Streeting unpopular with some parts of the party?
10:31
There is a clip that is doing the rounds today on social
10:35
media. Have you seen this one?
10:37
It's the one from like 10 years ago when they ask a whole bunch
10:40
of new MPs who's going to be the the PM in 10 years time and
10:45
they're all making predictions. And then the last one is we're
10:48
streeting. And he says, oh, I know probably
10:51
me. I mean, there, there is.
10:54
There is a perception because he has added to this, that he's a
10:59
man who's been building and scheming for this for his entire
11:04
political career. He's in student politics.
11:07
He's always been this game. And this is politics and these
11:10
are politicians. What are they whinging about?
11:12
But not it's. Like that's literally what
11:13
politics is about. Everyone does it quite so
11:16
nakedly, and that's what. You could argue authentically I.
11:21
Mean, I don't know, yeah. But but but in terms of sort of
11:24
where he sits in terms of his politics, yeah.
11:27
You know, he is, you know, on social media, you know, there,
11:29
there are just these armies of people who are going, oh, you
11:32
know, private health service donations, Palantir, all this
11:35
stuff, you know, all of which he has answered and, and and, you
11:39
know, has got an answer for. But why does that?
11:42
Why is that people organise around?
11:45
So he's to the right, to the right of the party.
11:48
He was very much a, some would call it a mentee of Peter
11:57
Mandelson for so many reasons, for the left of the party where
12:03
Streeting presents issues, where Streeting would argue he's not
12:09
to the right of anything. He is a more, more a centrist
12:14
Labour figure. And actually he's just the man
12:17
who likes good ideas. And when it comes to those good
12:21
ideas, when it comes to OK, well, who's the best person to
12:24
lead the country? He would argue that he can
12:26
present a set of plans that will win over the PLP, the Labour
12:31
MPs, it will win over the Labour membership and it will win over
12:35
the British public. In short, he's a Chapman short
12:38
of confidence, and he backs himself.
12:40
Yeah, he's more popular with voters than he is with the
12:44
Labour Party though, isn't he? Yes, I think he, he's widely
12:48
regarded as like a very good communicator, which he is.
12:50
You know, he has been effective in health, so and there's some
12:53
real positives there. But then whoever gets that job
12:58
or if Kier remains in that job, none of the fundamentals are
13:01
going to change. We've still got the cost of
13:03
living crisis, we've still got war in the Middle East.
13:05
We've still got sort of a sort of a growing sense of anger on
13:09
the streets. And and so the polarisation
13:11
we've seen in communities, everything we've seen on social
13:13
media. So all those things remain.
13:16
But I guess what I think maybe Wes would think he could do is
13:20
that he could override a lot of those things and speak sort of
13:23
directly to the public. But, you know, in terms of his
13:27
whoever gets the role has got to win over the party membership
13:30
1st. And the party membership sort of
13:32
sits quite differently to the general public.
13:34
It's it's more to the left. It's not as far to the left.
13:37
Obviously it was under the sort of times of Jeremy Corbyn,
13:39
because a lot of those people that joined the party at that
13:41
period have left so that the party membership has shifted.
13:44
Yeah. So that so it has shifted, but
13:45
still still significantly to the left the rest of the country.
13:48
Let's talk about where Keir Starmer is, then he's got to
13:51
find a health source. Between Downing St., he's not
13:53
moving, that's where he is. But he's got to find a new
13:56
health secretary. Is that straightforward?
13:59
You know, does he is does he do a very limited.
14:01
Well, Angela, Raina's freed herself after us.
14:05
I mean, you know, could he do something as simple as that?
14:07
He could, he could. I'm going to hold myself as
14:09
hostage, as fortunate. I, I, I would imagine it is not
14:12
a government department that it would be a natural or that Kier
14:16
Starmer was here as a natural fit for her.
14:19
But also who? Would want to go into government
14:21
now with Kier Starmer who would want to say yes to Keir Starmer
14:24
when there's. Still an awful lot of people who
14:26
are incredibly loyal to Keir. I mean, we've seen this week,
14:29
there's been, you know, there's been loads of people on the
14:30
airwaves who've been very happy to come out and support him and
14:33
who actually believe that we'll get through this week.
14:35
Things will continue. So I think that's, I think
14:38
that's very possible. And actually with every passing
14:40
hour it becomes more possible and his position is strengthened
14:43
because at the moment it does appear that he has seen off this
14:46
current threat. You're right about that loyalty.
14:48
Like there is real anger among the loyalists to Keir Starmer
14:53
that you look at the backbenchers and you look at the
14:56
people that have been processing this scheming and there was real
14:59
anger towards them that did you learn nothing from the Tory
15:02
years. Like all this infighting, all it
15:05
does is make us look terrible. It makes us look like we're not
15:08
capable of governing. You might think that someone
15:12
else might be better for it, but it's a terrible way of going out
15:15
going about it. And there are an awful lot of of
15:17
loyalists who are absolutely livid.
15:20
You have a conversation with them and all sorts of swear
15:22
words start coming out because they are just fuming that
15:25
they're now in this situation, two years in, where all of a
15:27
sudden they look like the same basket case that they perceive
15:30
the Tories to be. But it's who gets the blame for
15:32
that, isn't it? I mean, you know, each side will
15:34
blame the other for the chaos. You know, the, the people who
15:37
want them to go are saying you could have just gone in a
15:39
dignified way a week ago and we could have, we've had a quick
15:42
contest and the new Prime Minister and, and you know, all
15:44
of this chaos and circus wouldn't, wouldn't be here.
15:48
And he's saying, well, no, you've provoked this.
15:50
But I, I think it's very interesting that like loads of
15:53
the radio phoning shows, lots of sort of letters have been going
15:56
into local CLPS, constituency Labour parties have been very
16:00
supportive of care and very angry that that all this sort of
16:05
kerfuffle has appeared. Now you've got some people that
16:08
are out campaigning last week who are very angry that they
16:11
felt I think here was disabling them on on the doorstep.
16:13
But there are a significant number of people that think this
16:16
is the last thing we need as we try and regroup and try and use
16:20
the last next three years for a general election to sort of set
16:23
out a sensible direction. But what?
16:26
What is it that they think Labour does need then?
16:29
Well, I think, I think what I think what they want is what
16:32
they've sort of had in some ways, which is like policies
16:36
that appeal to, to to the left, but they just want that really
16:41
being proud of the Labour values that's comes out time and time
16:44
again because a lot of those voters have been lost to the
16:46
Greens. It was a sense that it's because
16:48
we that Labour hasn't been proud enough of the really great
16:51
things they've done about the renters rights around the
16:52
minimum wage. You know, so lots of that sort
16:57
of stuff just needs to be owned and sort of really felt proudly.
17:00
And then the other sort of stuff is on on delivery.
17:03
So that people who are more sort of transactional voters that
17:07
will come in if they feel there is real sort of progress on cost
17:10
of living, if there's progress on small boats, so and there's
17:13
progress on the health service, which we are now seeing.
17:15
So and so it's those things. It's it's it's either values and
17:19
it's delivery all kind of like brought together with a coherent
17:22
story will be enough. Task.
17:24
How do how do people like you in think tank world, who are very
17:27
important in terms of feeding ideas for policy into
17:31
government, how do you work out what your position is?
17:35
Because Labour Together, which is what you were, was
17:38
instrumental in sort of drumming the left out of Labour politics
17:43
and getting rid of all the Corbyn legacy.
17:46
Morgan McSweeney was, you know, your food assessor and all the
17:48
rest of it. And and now, now you're saying
17:52
we need to be both pleasing the left and the right?
17:55
So well, I think that's because we are now complete different
17:57
organisations that to the one that we once were.
17:59
So the. Party's no longer together.
18:02
Labour's no longer. Together.
18:03
No, I don't. I don't think it's that at all.
18:05
So I think when I so I came. So I, no, we haven't.
18:08
I mean, I don't think we've got anybody that was there two years
18:10
ago. So Morgan McSweeney was there
18:11
back in 2018. So you're talking about some
18:13
fairly distant history. I joined in just for Christmas
18:18
and we are basing where we are now on all the research and all
18:22
the polling and all the data that we have, which, and we're,
18:25
we're basing our thinking on what is necessary to get another
18:28
Labour government that can, can really sort of create a change
18:33
that people have endlessly been saying that they really want to
18:35
feel in their lives. And so in terms of creating that
18:37
policy, we've identified these three groups, which is the the
18:41
people that are that really sort of feel they want to see their
18:44
values demonstrated. We've got people who are
18:47
economically insecure, which, you know, a lot of those people
18:50
have been lost since the last election, you know, people who
18:52
are either unemployed or got less than 1000 lbs in savings,
18:55
you know, so, so life quite precarious.
18:57
And then we've also got transactional voters who want
19:00
the waiting list down and they want and they want the cost of
19:02
living dealt with. So they're so our if so by just
19:06
focusing, does that sound like a shift left?
19:10
Well, to be honest, does it matter if it's a shift left or a
19:12
shift right? This is the thing I think
19:14
coming. I I just think there's this
19:16
obsession about there's an obsession.
19:19
No, it's not. What?
19:20
What what direction they're? Moving No, because there is an
19:22
obsession with this spectrum in politics about where exactly
19:26
everybody must line up in some kind of like almost like a
19:28
child's game of height. Whereas actually, if we looked
19:31
at what the voters are telling us that they want, and then we
19:34
work back from that point to create the policies and then we
19:37
create a vision that can sort of sort of bring all those people
19:40
across the country together. That is very doable.
19:43
And this idea that we're now living in a sort of a fractured
19:46
politics, that that is the case at the moment.
19:51
But it doesn't have to be the case next year, the year after,
19:53
the year after, because the thing about having a volatile,
19:55
volatile voting is that it can change again.
19:57
Doesn't the polling you're looking at though also say that
20:00
Keir Starmer is the most unpopular?
20:04
The Prime Minister going back quite some time, yeah.
20:07
But I think I think that's kind of interesting.
20:09
I do think that is interesting because how much of that is him
20:12
as a person or how much is that of him representing everything
20:18
they're angry about this government for?
20:19
So you so that's brings you back to the point where you can have
20:21
almost anybody in that job at this moment in time and they
20:24
could be equally unpopular. So until you start fixing the
20:27
things that people are worried about, you're going to struggle
20:29
to be popular. I'm sure there's some truth in
20:31
that, you know, Because otherwise, why would every, will
20:34
your Prime Minister be more unpopular than the one before?
20:38
But he's also not very good at presenting himself.
20:41
He's not a great speaker. He's not a charismatic man.
20:44
And that was a strength in a world where you were following
20:46
Boris Johnson and all the madness and all the rest of it.
20:49
But but what people say now is they want somebody who can lead.
20:53
They want somebody who can inspire.
20:56
Can can he be that? I think we've seen he can do it
21:01
at times. I think it's the consistency.
21:05
I think I think it's about him having there's this whole thing
21:11
has now the last sort of few months have let Kir be Kir,
21:13
which has sort of been more successful.
21:15
I think rather than if authenticity is the currency of
21:18
today, which is sort of his, I think we have to then accept
21:21
that Kir will be authentically him.
21:23
And that might not be, you know, the razzmatazz of Boris Johnson
21:25
or someone, but but the more that he could be doing it his
21:31
way, I think the more effective that could be.
21:33
Do you? Really think you'll get the
21:34
chance or that Kier will get the chance to do it his way.
21:38
Because I mean, it takes message all day from different people
21:41
from different camps and everything that's paid out today
21:44
is either genius by the person that they back or lunacy from
21:48
the person that they don't back. But the one thing that I'm
21:50
getting back because it's simply from everyone.
21:52
This is not sustainable. So, you know, let Kirby Kir,
21:57
that might all work out. But we've got Lord knows how
22:00
many MPs have said they've lost their faith in them.
22:03
We've had four junior ministers stand down.
22:06
We've got a cabinet member now standing down and everyone's
22:09
saying this is not sustainable so.
22:11
I think it is obviously incredibly hard for it to be
22:13
sustainable. I mean, obviously, but I don't
22:16
think it's impossible at all. And I think because we've now
22:19
reached this point of a sort of impasse that that if that there
22:24
is more road and we may yet see something else.
22:28
But I think it all going to sort of come back to Andy Burnham
22:30
happens next. Well, that's what I was going to
22:31
say. I mean, what happens next is
22:34
he's got to find an MP who's prepared to give up their seat
22:37
and that he's then got to win it.
22:40
That's not an easy task anymore, is it?
22:42
Because reform and the Greens will say look at this
22:46
establishment stitch up that you are supposed to rub a stamp and
22:50
just give them the Prime Minister that they want.
22:53
That Britain is being isn't being asked what it thinks.
22:57
It's a very easy sort of anti establishment campaign from both
23:01
left and right, isn't it? Say screw them up you.
23:05
Know. Don't give them what they want.
23:08
Yeah, you look at the local elections last week in
23:09
Manchester, you know, there were big reform advances and there
23:12
were big green advances. Reform will pour goodness, I
23:15
don't know how much, how much resource into fighting that
23:16
campaign. And then, of course, there's the
23:19
the risk of the, if there's an election for the Greater
23:23
Manchester mayor that what if that were to go reform?
23:25
So that's a real worry as well. And Andy Burnham could be blamed
23:27
for that, Yes. Are they worried about that?
23:30
Yeah, I got, I got a text list from a mischief making Labour
23:36
backbencher who's saying there's every chance by the close of
23:40
when all this is said and done that Keir Starmer says right,
23:44
I'll fight whoever who overcomes.
23:46
We're Streeting finally does launch campaign but doesn't get
23:49
to 81 MPs Andy Burnham finds a seat, but he loses that seat.
23:54
And the end result of all of this is Keir Starmer's still in
23:57
#10 but the party looks more and more damaged.
23:59
I mean, the, the other scenario might be the timeline of, of
24:03
what Keir Starmer's orderly timetable might be were he to
24:08
agree to what, because what he could do is say, I, I will let
24:11
Andy Burnham come back after he's completed his term of
24:14
office in 2028, which would be a good year before there has to be
24:18
a general election. He could imply that that's when
24:22
he will go. And if Andy Burnham comes back
24:23
into Parliament after 2028 and then wanted to challenge me,
24:28
then yes, we'll have a leadership election, I mean.
24:30
It's a very uncomfortable couple of years until that 2028
24:34
timeline. Is is is met though?
24:36
I mean, we have to look at how frenetic and how uncomfortable
24:39
the last, how uncomfortable the last two days have been alone in
24:42
the next two years. Do you think that's plausible?
24:45
I think it would be difficult, but I think it's possible.
24:49
I think if we get through to the sort of the beginning of next
24:51
week and nothing else has happened, I think that is kind
24:54
of possible. I think what would be
24:55
interesting at that point is if Angela comes back into health or
24:59
wherever else, I think then there would be a sense that some
25:04
of those anxieties from people further on the left were being
25:06
met and that that might steady the ship.
25:09
I think that'd be the way that that would study things.
25:11
What, What do you think about everyone's total reluctance or
25:15
fear of being the challenger tells us?
25:20
I mean, this is such an age-old adage, you know, if you wield
25:23
the sword, you don't wear the crown.
25:26
Does it really exist anymore as a thing?
25:29
Is it the right thing to fear? And don't they all just risk
25:33
looking weak? Do you want to?
25:39
Yeah. So I think that's clearly
25:42
everybody that's in this melee has said some version of I would
25:47
stand, but only if somebody else triggers it.
25:51
So which I think sometimes the outside world just looks a bit
25:54
like cowardice. You think, right, you either
25:56
want it or you don't want it. And, and I can understand that
25:58
there's anxieties around how it's perceived, but that's
26:01
really sort of really just perceived amongst those, you
26:04
know, their their friends and colleagues that they they've
26:06
worked with for many years. So that's, but I, but I think
26:09
that then you can reach a sort of point of stalemate where
26:12
maybe then you think, right, OK, well we're just going to have to
26:14
make it work as effectively as we can where we are now.
26:17
Because as things stand, it looks like the person who is
26:21
being expected by everybody to challenge is Andy Burnham.
26:24
Yeah, although he's the person who can't challenge.
26:28
He has no way in hell of challenging.
26:31
Unless Andy Burnham is sort of the man really, who can only
26:34
become the Prime Minister if he's effectively already become
26:38
the price, if he's already won over all of the MPs, if he's
26:41
already won over the the membership and he already has
26:44
basically everything stacked up in favour of him so he can print
26:47
it to the, the, the NEC, the ruling body of, of the Labour
26:51
Party. Look, I'm the guy.
26:53
I've got everything stacked up for it.
26:54
There you go. I'm I'm in.
26:56
The, the, the quirk in this whole tale, which we should
26:59
probably just wonder about for a moment, is Al Khan's.
27:03
Oh, yeah. But Al Khan's is this man nobody
27:06
had heard of until 5 minutes ago.
27:08
But he's, he's a very accomplished guy.
27:11
He was a Marine. Special forces came into
27:14
politics later on in life. Kind Everest in a week, yeah.
27:19
Has got lots of sort of, you know, stories about bullets
27:22
going off and, and, and lives being saved.
27:27
And he he's written this article in the new statement about
27:29
politics and leadership and his vision.
27:31
He has, yeah, he and he has got a a team of MPs who really do
27:37
have a lot of faith in him and and back.
27:39
In when you say a team. There's there's a group of MPI
27:43
mean it's mainly 2024 intake. He's really seen as like their
27:46
guy, the the perfect. We've been overlooked.
27:49
We need someone to represent us. Will he really be a serious
27:51
candidate? Possibly not.
27:55
One of the one of the things they also say about him is that
27:59
one of the benefits he's got is because nobody really knows an
28:01
awful lot about him. No one really knows an awful lot
28:04
about his politics. So he's almost like this blank
28:06
canvas that you've you can project your own politics on to.
28:09
So that whole thing of like, who can, who can unite the left and
28:12
the right with this guy Cam, because no one knows where he is
28:15
really on that on that spectrum. But he's a man who's got
28:17
absolutely no experience of politics and and how politics
28:21
actually works. And how you build Christians.
28:24
And how you run government. And that's quite important,
28:27
isn't it? Isn't that what we've learnt
28:28
from Keir Starmer? That if you're not a natural
28:30
politician and you don't know how to corral MPs, you get into
28:35
trouble quite quickly? I don't know that it's quite as
28:38
simple as that in that I think there are obviously some skills
28:42
to politics which are different to any other walk of life, but
28:45
there are some people who are able to to pick those skills up
28:47
and run with it. And I think and obviously
28:49
leadership is such a huge part of that.
28:50
And I think that he could, he could probably demonstrate that
28:53
he's been a very good leader in the past and he could be, you
28:55
know, he's got leadership qualities.
28:57
So he's an interesting person to have in that mix.
29:00
I thought that was an interesting piece that he wrote
29:01
in the New Statesman. He sort of talked about, you
29:04
know, growing up on in a council estate in Aberdeen.
29:07
He's got an interesting back story.
29:09
I think he's he, he exudes strength, which is kind of
29:13
interesting in this sort of world of a strong man in which
29:15
we're currently living. Whether he's got the kind of the
29:21
the thinking. I think that's the interesting
29:24
bit about what he actually thinks we need to do to heals a
29:27
lot National. About what he actually thinks.
29:29
Yeah. But then maybe that was Part 1,
29:30
maybe the Part 2, who knows? Yeah.
29:32
I mean, what are people sniggering about it or?
29:35
No, no, no, they're, they're not, they're not stiggering
29:39
about it. Like he is seen as a as a
29:41
candidate, you're always going to have a left field candidate
29:43
that that comes in there and like.
29:45
Jeremy Corbyn. Jeremy, like Jeremy Corbyn was,
29:47
yeah, he he is an impressive guy.
29:49
Case in point, a man knew how to organise better than anybody
29:53
else. Or the people around here knew
29:56
how to organise better than better than anyone else.
30:00
But yeah. So no, I don't think Al.
30:01
I don't think Al is going to be the man that ends up marching
30:04
into down the street. Although if it would, it'd be
30:06
more like a military coup then, wouldn't it?
30:09
He could be the man who actually stands up in challenges, I
30:11
suppose. But but but from what you're
30:13
saying. 8081 MPs 80. One, MPs feels like Australia,
30:19
feels quite, yeah, feels quite punchy.
30:21
And he too, has said that he won't do it if if Keir Starmer's
30:25
in the contest. So.
30:26
And is there anyone else we haven't thought of who might
30:28
fancy a run? There's no one else that we
30:30
haven't that might fancy a run. The one thing that we haven't
30:33
mentioned is the people that are really Cocker hoop.
30:37
Today I bumped into one of them around there.
30:40
Reform. Yeah, You know, yesterday we
30:43
found out that that Nigel Farage's £5,000,000 gift to pay
30:47
for his security will be looked into.
30:49
It didn't get anywhere near as much coverage as it may have
30:52
otherwise. I bumped into someone from
30:56
Reform around the corner a moment ago.
30:58
They are Cocker who you take the afternoon off and and gone to
31:01
the gym because the point they were making is if your enemy is
31:05
making mistakes, you don't stop them.
31:07
You stand back, you let them do it.
31:10
And to be fair, I think so much of of what we're seeing at the
31:13
moment is because last week in the local elections was this
31:18
horrible vivid presentation of what the future could be, unless
31:22
there is not a compelling argument against against reform.
31:26
But everyone's got a slightly different idea about how you go
31:30
about tackling that, whether we need stability and we need to
31:32
get on with the job or whether actually we need to sort of
31:35
start from scratch. And that's the.
31:36
Challenge I would I would say it's not a horrible vision.
31:39
It is an alternative vision I. Can't get a horrible thing.
31:42
Just just. Finally, I mean, that's.
31:43
From me. Because you mentioned it with
31:44
Alcans that he's got this sort of 2024 intake sort of behind
31:48
him a bit. Isn't that the other division?
31:51
That is is, maybe, you know, poking around the corner in the
31:55
Labour Party that there's quite a lot of irritation with these
31:58
new MPs, many of whom are the vocal ones demanding Starmer
32:03
goes. This is the problem.
32:04
We're having such a whopping great big majority, right?
32:06
There's an awful lot of people who, you know, were quite
32:09
impressive in their lives beforehand.
32:10
They come to politics, they think they're going to end up
32:13
helping run in the country and actually they end up as a
32:16
backbench opinion. It's not quite as glamorous as
32:18
they hoped they thought they'd be.
32:20
You know, two years in, maybe they have some position and they
32:22
start jostling and a lot of the anger that you hear from people
32:26
who are fiercely loyal to care and people stealing government
32:29
posts is these guys just need to cop on, Cop on.
32:34
Oh, it's an Irish term. Sorry, I don't want cop in
32:37
office. Sorry.
32:38
IED Tiger. See.
32:40
Sorry. Alison Phillips, thank you very
32:41
much indeed for joining us. Come back and we'll talk about
32:44
the Think Tank in more detail. Think Labour.
32:46
Next time, think Labour. Paul, thank you.
32:49
That's the forecast for today. Until next time, bye bye.