Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 5/26/26: Trump Bombs Iran, Prof Marandi On Negotiations, Trump Pauses Taiwan Arms Sales

Transcript

5/26/26: Trump Bombs Iran, Prof Marandi On Negotiations, Trump Pauses Taiwan Arms Sales · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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  Speaker 4: Indeed we do. Potential Iran deal not looking.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: So hot as the US resumed airstrikes in southern Iran
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: yesterday and Israel is saying they are escalating in Lebanon,
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: so some pretty dire signs there. Professor Muhammad Morandi is
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: also going to join us to talk about the view
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: from the Iranian perspective on these developments and what he
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: thinks is going to happen next. We're also going to
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: take a look at the fallout globally from the US
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: is strategic defeat in Iran right now, the Trump administration
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: is paused weapons sales to Taiwan. Of course, this comes
• 1:06
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• 1:32
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• 1:33
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  Speaker 3: so seriously, thank you. All right, with all of that,
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: let's go ahead and get started here with Iran. Let's
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: start actually with a two. The biggest news that came
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: out of the weekend. Just yesterday, Iranian sailors and fishermen
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: were reportedly killed by US forces after they struck vessels.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Near bandar Ab Boss.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: The IRGC linked Fars News reported explosions and similar sounds.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: The Centcom Spokesperstman confirmed to Fox News the United States
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: Forces conducted strikes in southern Iran quote to protect our
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Targets, he said,
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: included missile launch sites. And Iranian boats that were attempting
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: to place minds. Two senior US officials told Fox News
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: that the strikes were quote defensive and do not indicate
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: that the ceasefire is over. Iranian air defenses separately shot
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: down a MQ nine Reaper drone in the past day,
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: two down by the IRGC, and one the Army's Air defense.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: So all of this is from IRGC and Sentcom. So obviously,
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: you know, the details are a little bit unclear, but
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: what we do need.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: People have very interesting definitions of ceasfire, I will.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: Just say ceasing fire self defense. Also, by the way, look,
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: we have no idea what happened, and what we do
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: know is that on the heels of some alleged agreement,
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: there's a couple of signs where things are falling apart.
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: First is, let's take the US at its word, even
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: on its face, which is that these boats were laying
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: mines in the Straits of horn Moves. Well, that's not
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: really something that you would be doing if you were
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: on the verge of some sort of imminent ceasefire and
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: a reopening of the Straits of horn Moves. Second is
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: that US air fighter jets not only went after these boats,
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: but they also targeted missile launch sites that are on
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: the coasts that were responding to some of these US
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: force It shows like the heavy level of US military
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: involvement that remains in the straight as a deal is
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: supposedly closed. Now the second part of this, which I
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: think is very important. Let's put a three B please
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: up here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: On the screen.
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: But Israel has now struck a number of strikes. It
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: has now struck a number of targets in Lebanon as
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: of yesterday.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: This came on the heels of.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: An announcement from the Israeli Prime Minister benjaminin Net and
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: Yahoo that they were going to facilitate their quote defensive
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: strikes against Hasbola. The reason why all of this matters
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: together is that the ceasefire on his face is supposed
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: to apply to Lebanon as it was previously Israel obviously,
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: and Hesbola did not abide by that. After the initial
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: ceasefire happened, there continued to.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Be firing all along the line.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: Now it's happening again with the backing of the United States,
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: but most significantly too, as we led with US forces
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: striking Iranian forces directly in the straits of Hormuz, all
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: on the verge of this alleged cease fire extension which
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: we are potentially being negotiated right now.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: I am old enough to remember when Trump put on
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: a true social saying demanding that Israel stop in Lebanon,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: and now here we are with Israel, you know, announcing
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: and with the assent of President Trump saying yes, we
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: are going to continue to bomb. We are going to
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: escalate what we are doing in Lebanon, and we have
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: no intention of stopping. So that tells you everything you
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: need to know about how close we are actually to
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: a deal. And we saw some ridiculous statements coming out
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: from trumpelined media figures. Scott Jennings and others will actually
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: ask Professor Morandi about some of this, with oh, the
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: deal's ninety five percent done. All we need to figure
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: out is this whole straight of Hormoux situation and also
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: the whole nuclear situation. Was like, okay, well, if that's
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: remaining on the table, then you are not at ninety
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: five percent of a deal. You actually haven't tackled any
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: any of these significant issues which your barriers to the
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: end of this war. I was listening to Colonel Lawrence
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Wilkerson this morning in an interview with Glenn Deeson, and
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: he made what I thought was a really important point.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: He's like, look, the heart of diplomacy is meeting face
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: to face and working things out. That becomes even more
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: important when you have two parties that have negative trust. Why,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: because we've used diplomacy as a faint, as a ruse
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: to bomb and attack this country now on multiple occasions.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: The fact of the matter is that since those initial
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: talks in Pakistan, there have not been any any face
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: to face meanings between anyone in our on and anyone.
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: In the US.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: So do you really think we're close to ironing on
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: a deal when no one from our side has even
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: spoken directly to anyone from their side. And now we've
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: gone back to bombing, and the Israelis, who do not
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: want any sort of a deal, have been given the
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: green light to escalate in Lebanon and now. And we
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: can put this element up on the screen as well.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: This is a Trump truth social nature saga which element
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: this is, But in any court case, Trump is now
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: saying that we have to He wants the Gulf countries
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: to join the Abraham Accords.
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: As part of this comprehensive deal.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: So now you're trying to add another complicating factor is
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: to this. And of course these Gulf countries are rightly saying, well, hey,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: part of the whole idea of normalizing relations with Israel
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: is that you would have some sort of Palestinian state,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: or at least a credible path to that Palestinian state.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: And of course we are so far from that that
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: it is an absolute joke. It's preposterous to imagine that
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: we're heading in that.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I means, really sit on this because it's really important.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: And so actually, I'll come back to this guy's I
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: apologize for all that jumping around.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Go back to a one.
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: So, on the one hand, we actually do have a
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: massive concession here from Donald Trump. This happened late yesterday.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Here's what he said. The enriched uranium nuclear does will
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: either immediately be turned over to the United States to
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: be brought home, or preferably in conjunction and coordination with
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: the Islamic Republic iron destroyed in place, or yet another
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: acceptable location with the Atomic Energy Commission. By the way,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: he means the IAEA, because the Atomic Energy Commission doesn't
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: exist anymore, or its equivalent being witnessed to this process
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: and event.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your attention to this matter.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: Why is this such a massive concession, because for the
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: higher time now so far, Trump has said all of
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: the quote nuclear dust nuclear dust aka nuclear material enrich
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: uranium up to sixty percent must be turned over to
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: the United States.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Iran has said, well, not so fast. We have two options.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: We can either downblend it here under the supervision of
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: the IAEA, or we will ship it to Russia or China,
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: a friendly third party nation, under which IAEA inspectors can
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: verify that it has being down blended and it will
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: be held there in potential future use for Iran. That
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: has been the long standing position of the Islamic Republic.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: Now Here, what we have is Trump saying, actually, that
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: would be acceptable. That's such a huge deal whenever it
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: comes to some sort of a understanding. However, let's go
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: back to A three eight. This is what Crystal's point
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: is is that at the very same time this very
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: very long true social post where Trump says negotiations with
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: the Islamic Republic are proceeding nicely. Now, when we fast
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: forward to the bottom line those countries, it may be
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: possible one or two reasons for not doing so, they
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: will be accepted. But most should be ready and willing
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: and even able to make this settlement with Iran a
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: far more historic event than it should be otherwise. And
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: what he says at the beginning there is they must
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: sign on to the Abraham Accords. Now, what are the
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Abraham Accords? The Abraham Accords, frankly, are one of the
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: main reasons that we're in this mess in the first place,
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: not just Iran, but October seventh, and also the entire
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: attack by Hamas. What it was is a normalization of
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: relations between the golf countries, select the signatories, and Israel.
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: And so what Trump is saying here is that in
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: conjunction for a ceasefire between Iran and the United States,
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: that they these golf countries, all of these regional countries,
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: must normalize relations with Israel without the establishment of a
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: Palestinian state. And so what he's trying to do is
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: a grand bargain. And actually, if you zoom out, it
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: all makes a ton of sense. The deal on its face.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: If Trump backs down on nuclear dust, if you will saying,
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: not only will they not turn it over to us,
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: but they're basically going to fulfill some JCPA style agreement
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: with IEA inspectors and shipping uranium to Russia.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: That's literally what they did under the JCPOA.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: If he does, oh, and they've reopened the streets of hormones,
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: which were open already the day before the war, what
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: is the entire international community to say?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: He lost? Dude, you obviously lost. So what does he need?
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: He needs a bigger grand bark, and that's what the
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: Abraham Accords also enables him to do. The second thing
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: that it does is it unilaterally disarms the entire Gulf
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: away from the establishment of a Palestinian state. Now, let's
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: be real, like they never actually cared that much about
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: a Palestinian state, But to their people it matters a lot,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: not to the governments but to the actual recitizens of
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: these country. Now, whether they can vote or not doesn't matter. Remember,
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: there's still some popular agency in many of these golf monarchies.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: So in this case, what he's trying to do is
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: to get them to unilaterally disarm on the issue of
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: Palestine and deliver Israel this massive diplomatic victory. Because we're
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: not just here about the UAE, which is the closest
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: ally of Israel, but all of these other regional countries
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: which do not have good relations with Israel or they
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: don't like Israel all that much, and they have their
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: own domestic populations that they have to worry about. So
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: basically the entire cease fire now hinges actually on normalization
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: of relations with Israel and these Gulf countries who are
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: supposed to give this up, even.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Though it has nothing to do with Iran.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: It's actually another reason why this cease fire will fail
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: if this is going to remain some top priority from
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: the White House. And this is the second time that
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: he said it so far, so maybe we should take
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: him at his work.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, I mean it also fits with just him
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: being an old man and wanting his legacy and to
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: be world changing leader blah blah blah. I mean that
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: really is a big part of why we're in this
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: whole mess to begin with, is his own ego and
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: desire to leave his mark on the world like a
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: dog pissing on his territory. We can put this Axios
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: report up on the screen as well, that has some
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: interesting details reportedly from this call. This was a Barack
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: Revide report here Trump Asthmuslim leaders to join the Abraham
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Accords after their run war ends. Those leaders, especially those
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: of Saudi Qatar and Pakistan, who do not have formal
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: diplomatic relations with Israel, were surprised by Trump's request.
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: Quote.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: There was silence on the line, and Trump joked and
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: asked if they are still there. One of the US
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: officials said, so that gives you a sense of how
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: shocking this was to at least some of the leaders
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: of You've got to be kidding me right now, while
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: all of this is going on and you're trying to
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: secure some sort of a deal, and we're in this
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: war that is going to be devastating to all of
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: our economies and has really created creater mess for us,
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: you're also asking us to do something that will be
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: politically toxic to our own populations and normalize relations with Israel.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: That is, you know, that was the what you could
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: read in to that silence on the line there from
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: these leaders and Sagar I was just seeing yesterday too
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: that Kushner is also apparently pushing a plan to change
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: the status quo at the Al Aksa Mosque, and you work,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, listen, what are you setting up here for
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: because October se seventh, and this is not justificated, this
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: is analysis by Hamas's own words. They said a big
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: part of this was the Abraham Accords, which was basically, hey,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: forget about Palistine We're all just moving forward. They said,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: we cannot allow the world to forget our cause, so
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: we need to do something dramatic. Was their name for
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: October seventh. Is the Aloxa flood. That gives you a
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: sense of how important that mosque is in their own
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: view of the world and their own ideology. So not
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: only are you saying, oh, we're going to have the
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: whole rage and normalize relations with Israel without giving a
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: shit about any Palestinian state or writes for Palestinians, etc.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: We're also going to try to change the status quo
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: at the al Oxa Musk. I mean, this seems like
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: a recipe for disaster. It also seems like something that
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: just isn't going to happen. I mean, it's far fetched
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: at this point that again that Trump is this close
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: to a deal and there we're all just waiting counting
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: down the minutes before he announces some grand bargain that's
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: going to rescue us from this complete quagmire and disaster
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: that he's gotten us into.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the fact that the strikes are happy. Look,
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: it's not impossible, and there has been a major there
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: has been a major give from Trump on the nuclear
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: enrichment issue. But when you're going to demand this Israel
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: normalization of relations through the Abraham Accords, that is going
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: to that just dramatically changes the entire process. And again
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: it's so that he does not have to tell the
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: world how he got humiliated. Let's put a four up
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: here on the screen just again to show you all
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: how behold into Israel.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: This administration is acting.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: Because now you have basically a background statement a senior
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: US official, we can do some tea leaves. I'm going
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: to guess from the State Department, who says the Trump
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: administration would support in escalation in Israeli military action in
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: retaliation to Hasbola violations of the ceasefire. The US official
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: says Hasbola has ignored repeated requests to stop firing at Israel,
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: including a recent ultimatum Israel will never be expected to
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: passively absorb attacks on its forces and civilians. This is
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: not the Biden administration. The official said that since April seventeen,
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: has Bula has fired blah blah blah. The US official
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: stresses Hesbula is entirely responsible for the current situation. It
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: broke the ceasefire on March second and is now intent
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: on denying the Lebanese people a path to piece and reconstruction.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: According to the official, Hesbula is concerned about the direct
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: negotiations with the Lebanese government in Israel with the support
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: of the US, and sees it as an existential threat.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: A successful ceasefire led by the government of Lebanon would
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: strap Hezbula of their power and their narrative. And remember
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: those are two warring factions. You also have here the
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the ground in India
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: backing up.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Israel's strikes on Hezbolah. Let's take a listen.
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: What but Lebanon. Is Lebanon going to be part of
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: a deal.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Well, Lebanon, we're working on separately with Lebanon. We are
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: engaged now. We have a forty five day ceasefire.
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: We've had weekly meetings now and ongoing daily engagements between
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: the government of Lebanon and Israel.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: The problem is not Lebanon and Israel. The problem is Hesbela.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: Just last night, Hesbela put out a statement calling for
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: the overthrow of the Lebanese government, and it just reminds
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: you who you are dealing with here, by the way,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: an Iranian proxy, one hundred percent iranium proxy.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: So he says they're basically backing them up. And then
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: a six immediately after the US gives a green light,
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: here's what we see. The Prime Minister of Israel says
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: Israel will intensified strikes on Lebanon's has Bola with the
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: backing here of the United States. So we have major
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: strikes in Lebanon. We also have, of course, the US
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: strikes on Iran. All of this happening under the guise
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: of an alleged ceasefire. We do not know yet what
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: this is all going to hold. We did have some indications.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: Let's not forget the Iranian negotiators, Gallabah and the Foreign
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: Minister were in Doha as of yesterday meeting with the Qataris.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: That's very important because the Kataris had come to them previously.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: The Iranian negotiators allegedly what they're talking with qatar about
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: is that Qatar is like the guarante of some several
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: billion dollars that are frozen Iranian funds by the United States,
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: so they would need some guarantee for some sort of
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: a release. But as of right now, things are not
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: nearly as optimistic as let's say, when we were talking
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: seventy two hours forty eight hours ago, what we do
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: our Sunday update treat to Parsi. His analysis always worth
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: kind of checking in on. What he said is it's
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: possible that Iran would sign this agreement even with these
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: ceasefire violations with Lebanon. But because Lebanon is being struck
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: by Israel, that Iran would just ruthlessly pound the UAE
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: because it is Israel's greatest ally in the Gulf, And
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: so every time that they would break the ceasefire on Hezbola,
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: they would break the ceasefire on the UAE. And basically,
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: dare the United States. You guys want to go full
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: back to full blown war over Israel and Hezbola. Okay,
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: that's fine, We're going to keep pounding the UAE. They
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: get to keep pounding Hezbola. And if you want us
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: to stop both of those things, then they need to end.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: So that's one possible way that this all may go about.
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: But this is the mess that Trump has has gotten
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: us into. Gas still remains what let's see, it's about
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: one hundred dollars barrel or forty nine a gallon here nationally, so.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: We're fifty How is your Memorial Day weekend?
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: That you know?
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: I was looking at The prices too have gone up significantly,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: and certainly part of that is the Iran war.
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: No, and not for nothing.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Israel is also they've never abided by the ceasefire and
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: Gaza they've continued to go on murderous rampages this whole time.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: But that has also been escalated in recent days, as
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: you pointed out in our breaking news segment with Tree
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: to Parsi. So you have Israel continuing to escalate Lebanon
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: in Gaza, you have now US strikes in southern Iran
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: not looking good for a potential deal, and of course
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: neither of the US and Iran they are not meeting
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: face to face. So how are you going to establish
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: some sort of deal with parties that have negative trust
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: without any sort of face to face conversations seems pretty unlikely.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: But to get the Iranian perspective on this. We can
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: now bring in Professor Mohammad Mirandi for his view on
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: these recent events. Joining us now to discuss that Iranian
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: perspective is Professor Mohammad Mirandi of the University of Tehran.
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: Grace to see you against her.
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: Thank you very much for having me.
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, of course.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: So let's go ahead and put b one up on
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: the screen here, guys. So we've got to report this
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: one from the Financial Times that some of Iran's top
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: negotiators have traveled to katar amid intensified.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: Efforts to secure a deal.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: What is your sense of how real these negotiations are
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: and how close we are to a potential end of
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: this war.
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: It's very difficult to say. The negotiations in Ratad seemed
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: to be going well. That is, for the potential transfer
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: of Iranian assets that were confiscated by the Americans are
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: blocked by the Americans. They want to make sure that
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: the Iranians received assets if an agreement is signed. But
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: the night before last, the United States they bombed two boats,
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: killing four Iranian soldiers and they were in Iranian waters,
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: and there was no reason for them to carry out
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: that assault and that is raising a lot of questions
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: in Tehran. And then we see Natin Yahu who is
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: about to escalate and he wants to carpet bomb cities
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: in Lebanon again, which reminds us of the previous seasfire
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: after the thirty nine days of fighting, when there was
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: a ceasefire between Iran and the United States which included Lebanon.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: Back then he started to carpet bomb cities and he
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: killed hundreds of people within a few minutes in order
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: to wrect the ceasefire. So the belief here is that
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: there is an effort to undermine any potential deal between
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: the two sides.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: Professor, I do want to ask you about the reception
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: in Tehran to this more recent Trump concession, saying yesterday
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: that the preferable solution for enriched uranium is to have
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: it either be down blended, destroyed on Iranian soil, or
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: transported to a third party, presumably Russia or China. This
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: previously was not something that President Trump was willing to accept,
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: at least publicly. How was the reception to that in Tehran.
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: Is it viewed as a positive concession on the way
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: to a deal or otherwise?
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: Well, the Iranians are saying that we're not yet there.
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: We haven't reached that stage. First we have to have
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: an agreement, and then after the sixty days, if all
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: goes well and the Americans abide by their commitments, then
• 23:27
  Speaker 5: we can move on and discuss the nuclear program as
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: well as sanctions and other issues that exist between the
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: two sides. But ultimately, the Iranians have said very clearly
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: and repeatedly that they're not going to hand over any
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: enricheranium to the United States, nor do they plan to
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: send it abroad. So this is I would say on
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: as an Iranian who's looking at events here, I think
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: that this is a positive step, This is a step
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: in the right direction. But again we have different things
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: happening simultaneously, and the murder of the four soldiers, the
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: intensified assaults on civilian targets and Ebanon, and this it's
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: difficult to figure out where things are ultimately going. So
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: if I was a betting man, which I'm not, I
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: don't think I could bet either way whether there will
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: be an agreement or there will be continuation of what
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: we have or war.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: As you indicated, the concept is that the nuclear file
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: negotiations will be pushed off into the future, but in
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: this initial negotiation there are a lot of details that
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: remain to be worked out. And can put B two
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: up on the screen which pertains to the status of
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hornbos. So this is from an Iranian
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Foreign Ministry spokesperson. We are not seeking tolls from the
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: Strait of Hormos. Be careful in choosing words. Fees are
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: charged for the services that are on i Oman provide
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: in the STRAIGHTFORMUS as well as for the implementation of
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: nature and ecosystem protection programs. So not a toll, but
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: a fee for services. What is your sense though, of
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: what some of the red lines in this initial phase
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: of negotiations are for Iran.
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: Well, maybe they're trying to appeal to leftists in Europe
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: and the left wing of the Democratic Party in the
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: United States with regards to environmental environmentalism. But I think
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: it's the Iranians are have said many times, and I
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: think they're very serious about it, that the status of
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: the Strait of Hormoes is not going to go back
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: to what it was before for two reasons. One is
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: that the Iranians feel that they have the right to
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: receive fees rather than tolls, just like Turkey does. But second,
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: the Iranians don't want the Americans to be able to
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: rebuild those military bases in the Persian Gulf, and they
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: don't want an Israeli presence or European presence either. And
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: right now, the Americans, as we all know, they're forced
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: to use planes to bring in troops and equipment to
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: the region, which is much more expensive and causes more
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: damage to the equipment, and they want to continue to
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: make it more difficult for them to maintain their presence.
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: So I think the Iranians are going to remain in
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: charge of the strait, no doubt, I believe, But I
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: don't think they're going to do it in a way
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: in which impedes traffic, because the Iranians do want business
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: as usual to carry on through the Strait of Homos.
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: That's obviously how Iran makes a lot of money, and
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: countries friendly to Iran, like Iraq or Oman, they also
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: make a lot of money as a result of trade
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: and business in the Persian Gulf.
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: Professor, how does the Iran view this more recent addition
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: by the Trump administration to insist that all of the
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: regional countries must recognize Israel via the Abraham Accords as
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: part of some sort of comprehensive ceasefire between the United
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: States and Iran.
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: I think the United States really doesn't or Trump at
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: least doesn't really understand that this sort of language, especially
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: what we saw in his Truth Social Posts, which he
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: was effectively ordering them to join. Now. I don't know
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: what language he use on the phone, but the Truth
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: Social Posts was insulting to these countries, and for these
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: family regimes in the Persian Gulf in particular, it undermines
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: their position among the public, especially since they've already been
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: weakened due to war. If they are perceived to be
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: moving towards the Israeli regime, it makes them more unpopular.
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: And when the United States is or Trump is ordering
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: them to take particular stand and they don't respond, that
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: also doesn't look good for them. I don't think though,
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: that any of these countries, under the current circumstances, are
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: going to take any further steps towards building relations with
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: Israeli regime. We know all of them do have relations
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: Patad Sodis, all of them have relations Torkie. But I
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: don't think that right now, any of them want to
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: have to improve those relations because there's an ongoing genocide.
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: It's been going on now for almost three years, and
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: now the slaughter has begun in Lebanon two. So I
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: don't see that happening. And of course Iran is never
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: going to join such an a court because Iran doesn't consider
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: there's Raeli regime in its current form as an ethno
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: supremacist entity to be legitimate.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: How much of a problem is the fact that Israel
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: is insisting on We're going to continue to bomb in Lebanon,
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: you celebrating ethnic cleansing there. Trump seems to have effectively
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: greenlit this at this point. Of course, Netna, who was
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: not interested in an end to this war, coming to
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: some sort of a deal or a cord that would
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: make sense for the region. So how much of this
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: is an obstacle to you know that will completely block
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: any progress towards a deal.
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: It will completely block progress because you recall that after
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: the fighting the thirty nine days of Hot War, when
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: there was a ceasefire, one of the conditions was a
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: ceasefire across the region, and then Nata, who began the
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: carpet bombing Iran said until if there's a ceasefire, we're
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: not going to allow those extra ships from countries that
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: are linked to those who were hostile to Iran during
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: the war to pass through the Strait. So Netnaho by
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: violating the season fire agreement, he has been preventing the
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: world from obtaining the energy and the other resources that
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: they get from the Persian Gulf. And I know that
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: the Iranians continue to take the same position now. The
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: war in the genocidal attacks and Lebanon have to stop,
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: otherwise this agreement will simply not work at all and
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: the straight up hormoes will not go back to normal,
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: especially for Iran. Lebanon has a particular, particularly high status
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: and a moral status because when the genocide began in Gaza,
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: no one but Hezbolan the resistance went to the aid
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: of Gaza when they began fighting northern in southern Lebanon
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: in order to draw away some of the Israeli troops
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: from Gaza to ease the pressure on the Gazan population.
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: Even though they knew that they would be beaten, they
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: would be bombed and slaughtered, and their families would be
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: taken out. As a result of this, policy. But for Iran,
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: this was a heroic stance that has took over the
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: past two and a half years, more than two and
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: a half years, and that's why Iran, for that reason too,
• 31:20
  Speaker 5: is simply not going to accept the war to continue,
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: and if it does, Iran will not allow those ships
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: to pass through.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: I wanted to ask you a little bit of just
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: what is life like in Iran right now? Have things
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: pretty much resumed to normal? Daily Pacer can put before
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: up on the screen. This is a report from Broiders
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: that the Iranian president has ordered the reopening of international
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: internet access within Iran. So you know, is there a
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: sense of sort of normalcy day to day or things
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: still feel very unsettled. Is there a lot of economic pressure?
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: What is day to day life like in Tehran right now?
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: It is normal, although there are couple of policies that
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: I think were very bad, and that is that after
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: the fighting stop, they continue to have schools and universities
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: university courses online and I think we all know what
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: happened during Corona. But from next week schools and university
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: classes will be on campus and at schools. So from
• 32:25
  Speaker 5: next week I'll be on campus teaching my students. But
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: during the past few weeks, even though there was no fighting,
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: my classes were online, and during the war, of course
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: they were online too, So we're almost back to normal.
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: I think we could have been back to normal earlier.
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: But and internet, as you pointed out, is going to
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: go back to normal. Schools and universities are going to
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: go back to normal. But we have a lot of inflation,
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: and obviously because of the air strikes on factories, on
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: pharmaceutical factories, on the on hospital schools and other infrastructure,
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: the economy is hurting. And also the siege itself is
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: having an economic impact because Iran can't import medicine or
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: food from the Persian Gulf easily. It's very difficult, so
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: there is infation. But the Iranians believe that they will
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: be able to wait out outweight the United States because
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: this siege on Iranian ports is a double edged sword
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: and it's basically a siege on the whole global economy.
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: So Iran says will wait until the United States is
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: forced to change. And I think that that policy is
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: working because over the past couple of weeks, the American
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: negotiators had a much greater sense of urgency to get
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: this deal done than the Iranians. The Iranians are very careful.
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: They're slow because they want to make sure that they're
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: no loopholes, because they know what happened in the JCPO.
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: The Obama administration took advantage of those loopholes against Iran,
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: and they never fulfilled their obligations, and then of course
• 34:10
  Speaker 5: Trump later on, of course left the deal. But the
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: Iranians want to make sure this time round we don't
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: have a situation where Iran carries out obligations and then
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: the Americans refrain from carrying out their own. And that's
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: the main reason why the Speaker of Parliament is in
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: Doha right now, to make sure that money comes to
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: Iran as soon as if an agreement is signed.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: Professor, give us some signs that we can look for
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: here in the West to actually see that a deal
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: may be happening, you pointed out the speaker there in Doha. However,
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: we've seen numerous trips. We've seen the Pakistani Army chief
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: visit Tehran. Then we've saw strikes that just happened yesterday.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: So how can we assess the willingness in your country
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: to actually want to sign a deal.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Same for us.
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: What concessions can we look for from the American side,
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: they still remain outstanding.
• 35:06
  Speaker 6: Well.
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: First, I should also add that another reason why the
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: Speaker of Parliament and the chief negotiator is in Ohio
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: is also to try to encourage countries in the Persian
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: Gulf that assisted the United States and the war to
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: tilt away from Trump and to establish better ties with Iran.
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: So that is another reason why it's going. We were
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: pretty close actually in the there was a widespread belief
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: that by now we would have had a deal. But
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: it seems in Tehran that the neo cons and the
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: Zionist lobby in the United States pushed back hard on Trump,
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: and we saw him make some statements that ran against
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: the agreements that they had reached over during the negotiations.
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: So during the sixty days, the Americans were supposed to
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: release a substantial segment of Iranian assets that were confiscated,
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: the sanctions on the energy sector would be waived, there
• 36:13
  Speaker 5: would be there would be a regional ceasefire, and the
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: Americans would be a responsibility because in the deal it
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: says the United States and its allies and then Iran
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: and its allies also the status of Iran's control over
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: the Strait of Homos is not questioned. The United States
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: gets a commitment by Iran not to develop nuclear weapons,
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: which is fine for Iran because Iran has been saying
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: it for decades that they have no intention of developing
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: nuclear weapons. So the Iranians feel that they have a
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: strong hand because of the Trait of Homos more than
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: anything else. But everything depends on Trump. It could it
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: could be resolved very quickly by within a day or two,
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: but I think that there are lots of pressures in
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: the United States right now that may prevent it from
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: ever happening again. If we go the reason why the
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: Seasfire was wrecked a couple of months ago, almost a
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: month a month and a half ago roughly, was because
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: of Neating Yahoo. He refused to abide by the Seasfire.
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: And if he hadn't done that right, we would have
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: had the last month and a half, we would have
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: had ships going through the Strait of Hormones, and the
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: global economy would have been in a much better situation now.
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: So it depends on what Neating Yahoo does in Lebanon
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: with regards to Lebanon, and it depends on whether Trump
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: can't is serious and he is willing to stand up
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: to the zion and slobby frusher.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: Morandi.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: Always so useful to have your analysis. Thank you so
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: much for joining us this morning.
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: Thank you, sir, thank you very much for having me.
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: Turning down to Taiwan on the heels of the Trump
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: she Summit. It appears now the United States will pause
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: weapons sales to Taiwan, blaming the situation on the war
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: with Iran and the need.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: To conserve ammunition.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to the acting Navy Secretary Hon
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: Kau under questioning from the Senator Mitch McConnell, or what's
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: left of him.
• 38:24
  Speaker 7: Let's take a list to buy arm shortage, and all
• 38:28
  Speaker 7: of a sudden there's a pause. What are you hearing
• 38:32
  Speaker 7: from the cow and age about the pause.
• 38:38
  Speaker 6: Chairman, I have not heard. I have not spoken to
• 38:40
  Speaker 6: the Taiwanese. However, we are. We have done some military
• 38:44
  Speaker 6: for military sales to them, and it's just right now
• 38:47
  Speaker 6: we're doing a pause in order to make sure we
• 38:50
  Speaker 6: have the ammunitions we need for epic fury, which we
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: have plenty, but we're just making making sure we have everything.
• 38:57
  Speaker 6: But then the four military sales will continue when the
• 39:01
  Speaker 6: administration deems necessary.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: Sir, I'm gonna put McConnell's health to the side, and
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: we'll focus on the Yeah.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: Political class just rotting and decomposing before our eyes.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: So first and foremost, that's important.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: So when we're talking about declining empire, that's a significant
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: part of it. But let's focus on the substance, jahwe
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: let's put the next one up here on the screen.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: The Iran war and China thaw complicate US support for Taiwan.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: A fourteen billion dollar Taiwan arms sale is now on
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: hold amid the strain of the Middle East conflict and
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: Trump's reconciliation with Beijing. So this was confirmed by Hong Kow,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: the acting Navy Secretary, before the Senate Committee on Thursday.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: It has now been confirmed officially by the Pentagon of
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: this quote pause, fueling concern among lawmakers and Taiwanese officials
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: for President's support. President Trump's support of the island nation
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: as he juggles the Middle East war and the desire
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: for Dayton with Beijing. And the reason why that we
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: are sitting with this it is the single most important
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: part of this entire strategic defeat that we have now
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: suffered with Iran. No matter which way the ceasefire goes,
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: this was the inevitable consequence, and I think it was
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: inevitable from day one, but especially some two to three
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: weeks into the conflict, when we started to see the
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: munitions begin to dwindle. It just became mathematically impossible to
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: seek a different solution. And then second, Trump, by getting
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: into this disastrous situation, by removing almost unilaterally himself, some
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: sort of military option on the table, reducing to terrence,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: you now have a situation where you have no choice
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: but to seek deytent with Beijing. You genuinely don't need
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: Beijing to bail you out of this global crisis. One
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: of the reasons this is fascinating to me, the one
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: of the reasons why oil is only one hundred dollars
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: a barrel. China is importing less oil today than it
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: ever has in modern history, and it is doing so
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: as a favor to the global economy, saying, hey, we
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: have a huge strategic patrol and reserve. What we're gonna
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: do is we're gonna import less, so we're gonna keep
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: the oil price down. If they were importing at normal levels,
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: it'd be one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel something
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: like that based upon the analysis that I've seen, which
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: means it would be six dollars agall here in the
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: United States. You think that there's not some back and
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: forth give and take between the United States, Like it's
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: obviously not just gift to Trump. It's a gift really
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: to all of the other Asian nations in Asia who
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: are very reliant here on the US. And what we're
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: seeing here is that Taiwan is the tip of the
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: spear because Taiwan, if you were to compare Taiwan and Israel,
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: let's say one country now as of this morning, just
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: surpassed the entire GDP of India. Taiwan, India, all of
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: Taiwan just tied in the island nation based on semiconductors
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: for all the electronics. You know, it's been reasonable ally
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: over the years with the United States Israel causing problem
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: after problem after problem after problem with a GDP of
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: like or bilateral trade between the US of like fifty
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: something billion, which ranks along like Chile. Right, Taiwan is
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: in the top ten. Which would you choose to defend?
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: You could ask me or anybody else. I think it's
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: a pretty obvious answer. We have chosen instead to throw
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: the full force the Empire behind Israel, and by doing
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: so have sacrificed even the ability if you wanted to,
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: to do so with Taiwan and possibly even with South
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: Korea and Japan, which I'll get to here in a moment.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: But I mean, this is it.
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: This is it, And I mean I thought it probably
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: always was, but there was at least ten percent deterrent.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I would say, I don't even know it's gone.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: No, and Trump has evaporated it as a result of
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: this war.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, fourteen billion dollars weapon sale or not,
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: it's alwao what we can't We can't defeat this, you know,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: middle income at best regional power of Iran, and we're
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: going to go up against China for Taiwan.
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: No, we're not going to do that.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, we can say whatever we want, maintain ambiguity,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: blah blah blah. The reality is clear to everyone. It's
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: certainly clear to the Chinese, and this decision to pause
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: the weapon sale is also you know, this is a
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: direct result of this meeting and of this trip to
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: China that Trump just went on just to recall how
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: this all went down.
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: You know, the public state. It's from Trump.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: We're completely sipantic towards she very praise full, worshipful. She
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: was much of sort of more hardline and clear cut about, hey,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: we are going to try to avoid the Thucidides trap,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: which means we don't want as you are a declining empire,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: we don't want to go to war with you. And
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: they expressed upset over this weapon sale, and lo and behold,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: we said, okay, like, we'll do what you want because
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: we are not in a position to do otherwise at
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: this point.
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: That's the reality.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: And you know this, this has been made manifest by
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: the Iran war. Now it is undeniable. As Saber is
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: pointing out, whatever sort of imaginary deterrent there was previously
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: is now wiped clean. So when China says, hey, I
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: don't really like the fact that you're doing this fourteen
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: billion dollar weapon sale right now, guess what our best
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: course of action is to say, Okay, we won't do
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: it then, because we need to have good relations with
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: you so that you do not cut us off from
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: not only you know what we need in terms of
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: some in Taiwan, but other various rare earth minerals and
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: other supply lines that we are completely dependent on China for.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: So that is just an acknowledgment of the reality of
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: the world that we live in now. It is a
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: different day, regardless of how the Iran war concludes and
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: what the contours of a deal are blah blah blah,
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: and when that comes, whether it's this week or two
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: months from now or a year from now, the world
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: has changed and everybody's opened their eyes to the fact
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: that we are no longer in any position to throw
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: our wait around in the world in the same way.
• 44:31
  Speaker 7: Right.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: And this is a disaster really for the United States
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: because the entire but the entire basis of the American Empire,
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: especially in Asia, was built upon the security guarantee, not
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: just for Taiwan, but for Japan, for South Korea, and
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: in exchange. What that means is that there's open and
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: navigable trade waters for cheap shit to flow to the US.
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying this is a good thing. I'm saying
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: this just is the basis for the US. I personally
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: would like to change some of that. However, if we
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: were going to say, who are the best? I would
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: say Japan and South Korea, especially when you compare them
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: to a lot of these European nations. Well, what's going
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: to happen now? C three Please, let's put it up
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: here on the screen. Just yesterday, the US has now
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: warned Japan of a severe delay in Tomahawk deliveries due
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: to the Iran War. The missiles will come two years
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: late as the Pentagon now has to replenish its own
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: stocks depleted in the Middle East military campaign. So remember
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: we went to Japan and we said, hey, you guys
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: have to buy Tomahawk missiles. They were like, okay, let's
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: do it. So then they we took their money and
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: now we're like, just so you know, we're going to
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: have to wait a few years to give it to
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: you because we blew it all with the Iran War.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: This was the interruption.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: Is the Big Boat of Japan ordered Tomahawks again for
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: the first time in twenty twenty four at the insistence
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: of the US to enhance his deturns against China. The
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: missiles would have given Japan a quote counterstrike capability to
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: hit coastal China, and it was a two point three
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: point five billion dollar deal after Washington urged Japan to
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: increase this defense spending. So Japan does it, and they
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: give us the money. They're like, all right, so give
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: us the missiles. Nope, we can't even turn those missiles
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: over right now. This comes on the heels of this,
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: you know, increasingly, all of these reports that are coming out,
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: which you know, you don't need a report necessarily for
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: the obvious. But let's put this Washington Post piece that
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: I sent in post production. US allies in Asia are
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: now trying to shield themselves from Trump's unpredictability. And what
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: they say is that Trump's seeming ambivalence about the value
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: of allies has created a sense of urgency among nations
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: with close US tighes. As China now shows greater willingness
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: to strong arm its neighbors and Trump injects waves of unpredictability.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: Japan and South Korea are banding together as smaller nations
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: redraw the geostrategic balance in Asia, despite their complicated history.
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: So to get Japan and South Korea to work together,
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: that takes a titanic feat from the United States, two
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: countries which hate each.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: Other for good reason. Yeah, I don't blame it.
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: But you know, not my place to judge about who
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: is comforting women who, but just saying I don't blame
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: the South Koreans for still being Upsee.
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: Trump is uniting the globe and we never.
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: Can we never could have imagined. But what we're what
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: they're pointing out is this quote growing urgency was felt
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: from the big powers. From the South Korean president hosting
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: the Japanese Prime minister for two day summits, including a
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: banquet and traditional fireworks show something that you know, rare generally,
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: And what they're doing is they're pushing them together to say, Okay,
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: we have these two great nations, you know, the giant economies. However,
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: both are have total security guarantees. Previously thought iron cloud
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: from the United States, not so iron cloud anymore. Take
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: those dads out, take those tomahawks away. You have Trump,
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: you know, saying oh, We're going to pause weapons sales
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: to Taiwan. They're like, well, remember for Japan and South Korea,
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: they have two twin problems.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: They don't just have China. They've got North.
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: Korea which can fire, which literally fires missiles over Japan
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: and you know near South Korea all the time who
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: it is a sworn enemy. So for them, what they
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: need to do is they need some sort of guarantee.
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: And look, some of this is healthy like in the
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: long run because it gives them strategic independence, but it
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: will come as health for the globe and detriment to
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: the US dollar and to our own security. Guarantee, our
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: ability to buy cheap goods our ability to have good
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: relations with these nations. And again, like just just be
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: very clear, like who is more important to the United
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: States of America, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan or Israel,
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: the UAE and Saudi ral Like it's a joke compared
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: to their actual economic importance, especially in the future when
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: we transition.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: Well generally, how many fossil fuel.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: How many Trump, Kushner and Wits properties though exist, that's
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: a golf reach in is I guess the more important
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: question ask here in terms of the type of decision
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: making that is being made. And look, also, you know
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: the same logic that we apply for the US bases
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: in the Middle East, where now the you know, many
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: of them have been destroyed. Countries are realizing, hey, we
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: thought having these bases on our soil would help protect
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: US instead it made us a target. That logic applies
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: to a certain extent in places like South Korea too,
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: in places like Japan as well, where they're saying, you know,
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: this whole idea that this was really going to protect
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: us as you're pulling weapons systems from our soil and
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: sending them to the Middle East. Not sure that this
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: fully adds up for US anymore. So I'm not saying
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: that that change will happen overnight, but again, the logic
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: and the calculus has completely completely changed. You know, Trump
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: threatened to pull you know, our military out of Germany,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: and there was this significant part number of Germans on
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: sort of like the far right and the far left.
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: But we're like, okay, good, but feel.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: It that actually would be a great thing.
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: Would please go ahead and do that.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: I mean that sentiment exists in South Korea, especially among
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: young South Koreans as well. That sentiment exists around the world,
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: and the logic of it has also changed since the
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: demonstration of our weakness in the Middle East and in
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: the Iron War.
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: You know, I know, you guys put Ce four. I
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: cannot emphasize enough how aass backwards. This whole thing is
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: from John Hudson. The US bore the brunt of Israel's
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: missile defense, which means that while Iran was shooting at Israel,
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: the United States military expended far more of its own
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: interceptors to protect Israel than Israeli forces did. Let me
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: sync that in as deep as we possibly can. We
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: have a very limited amount of these advanced interceptors. As
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: I've emphasized over and over and over and over again
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: on the show, they take years to rebuild, They're highly
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: high precision, they are ridiculously million, multimillion dollars expensive. One
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: of the reasons we give money to Israel is so
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: that they can have the weapons to defend themselves. This
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: is the logic. Then when it came time to defend themselves,
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: the United States stepped in and we defended them. We
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: expended many of the stocks that we have so that
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: Israel could conserve theirs. Why, oh, because, oh, but Israel
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: might need them in the future. Then why did we
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: do it in the first place? And so we are
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: now dramatically less safe because we've protected Israel from Iranian
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: missiles in a war, by the way, which they got
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: us into and which they started. Remember day one of
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: the war, the United States Secretary of State one of
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: the historic statements ever uttered by a chief diplomat.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: We had to do it because Israel was going.
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: To attack them, and that we knew Iran would attack back,
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: and that's why the United States had to get involved.
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: That was his reasoning, the US Secretary of State. He
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: said it, not me, and so here we are. So
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: several months later, the United States has expended the vast,
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: vast array of its advanced interceptors, costing some hundreds of
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: millions of dollars on behalf of this tiny little nation,
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: while Japan, South Korea, Taiwan there go dry.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: How does that make any sense? I'm losing like it.
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: Genuinely, this demonstrates to me the level of which there
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: has been a complete strategic inversion in the Trump administration.
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: This will go down as one of the greatest follies
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: in US history. I really like, it's not even hyperbolic
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: now at this point.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: This is it.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: This is the big one in terms of the turning point. Yes,
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: I owe everyone, Oh you're just saying that. Listen, Like,
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: I don't just say these things willy nilly, because when
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: you stack up the balance sheet and you look here
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: at Japan, a G seven nations, South Korea, same thing.
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: Top trading partner of the United States, Taiwan. I just
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: described three nations which are in the top ten trading
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: partners of the United States.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Who are like, I don't know, I don't know about this.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: And yeah, Soccer, I don't even I don't see anyone
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: really disagree, even the neocons now, the ones who are like, oh,
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: we got to do more war. You know Lindsey Graham
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: and that tweet that we talked about with Trita Parsi
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: on whatever day that was on Sunday. Sunday, he said,
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: if this concludes with the deal right now, I don't
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: know why we went into this war to start with,
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: because even in them or you know the Robert Kagan
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: piece that we talked about in The Atlantic where he
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: says it's checkmate, like we lost in a run. I
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: don't think that there's really anyone who can disagree with
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: that at this point.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: Now, some of those people use.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: That as a justification as it that's why we need
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: a ground invasion, that's why we need to nuke them,
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: or whatever insane plans they have. But it's pretty undeniable
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: at this point, unless you are the just most blinded
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: Maga sycophant loyalist you could possibly imagine who just hears
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: Trump go, we want in La, I guess we won.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: Outside of those people, it's pretty undeniable. It's really undeniable.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: And that's actually one of the obstacles to being able
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: to secure some sort of a deal at this point,
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: because even Trump knows he's not going to be able
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: to sell this as a win. Even he knows, with
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: all of his powers of persuasion and reality distortion and all,
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: you know something that he's very talented as the probably
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: greatest bullshit artists in American history, even he knows people
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: are going to see this as a loss, as nothing
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: more than a devastating strategic loss and one of the
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: greatest blunders in history. So, you know, I think it's
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: fairly undeniable, and this lead us, you know, okay, well,
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: we're not going to do the weapons sales to Taiwan
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: at China's request. By the way, We're just got to
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: go along with what they want at this point because
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: we're in such a position of weakness. It's just a
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: sign of a new reality.
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: Iran is the excuse, but it's also the truth, like
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: it's just that, and is there something we do about it? Yeah,
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: we would have to basically a Manhattan Project, our defense
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: industrial base.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Here's the problem.
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: It's not a horrible idea, but it would be a
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: horrible idea under the current political regime because and I'm
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: not just talking about Trump, I'm talking about both of them.
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: Because under the current political regime, what we know is
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: that let's say some neo liberal Democrat or Trump or
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: neo Kon Republican, if you give them more weapons, they're
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: going to use it for more shit like Iran in Israel.
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: The whole point would be to have a sensible strategic
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: defense and say we're going to use this to protect
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: US and to protect Japan and to protect South Career
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: and maybe Taiwan maybe right, which even then it is
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: like a law is basically a dream, but we want
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: to make sure that it doesn't get invaded, or at
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: least we maintain some strategic connection to make sure we
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: can get all these chips which are deeply valuable all
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: these democracies.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: It's bullshit and everybody knows it.
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: But even that under the current regime, like we know
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: that if we put one point five billion dollars into
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: our Pentagon budget, the vast majority of it will be
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: squandered into the mansions of northern Virginia and for more
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: high tech weapons systems which either don't work or are
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: easily defeated or penetrated by a twenty thousand dollars drone.
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: We have no creativity, we have no wartime mindset. Then
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: the people at the top who talk the way that
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: I do are like the CEO of Palenteer, right, who
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: have a shit ton to gain from some more defense
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: spending at you know, some very dubious.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: And problematic expense.
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: So I don't even see a political constituency which is
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: capable of solving this question like period, without a dramatic
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: rewriting of the entire like global Foreign policy League. And
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: it's terrifying, honestly, because it's it's theoretical. We're just talking
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: about it, but the realities of what this means in
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: the future are going to be, you know, serious humiliations abroad,
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: being at the genuine like at the really being at
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: the mercy of other great powers. Nobody alive in the
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: United States today has ever lived under a regime like that.
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: It has not we have not lived that way in
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: almost one hundred years.
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: And it's I mean, look, you know you can read books.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: It usually leads to.
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: Clashes and fires and genocides and death and destruction.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: It's it's not good.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: Well, and this is why I continue to be concerned
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: about nuclear weapons, because we haven't experienced a hegemonic decline.
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: In the nuclear age.
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: No, we haven't.
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and Trump's Trump's psychotic, Like, you don't have any
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: idea what this guy will do. It's impossible to predict,
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: you know, what insane maneuvers he will take next, and
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: so you know, is it possible? But he breaks the
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: nuclear taboo in order to protect his fragile ego and avoid,
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: you know, in his mind, avoid holding the l that
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: he has to hold because of this Iran war. Like
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: I don't think that that's preposterous. That's why that's so
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: in Israel obviously nuclear armed as well, and completely psychotic.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: So it's a very dangerous world that we live in.
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: And multipolarity was coming, regardless of whether it was going
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: to be Trump or Kamala or whoever else comes after them.
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: But there could have been a transition that did not matter. Yeah, absolutely,
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: And you know, what we're risking is is a complete collapse.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: I had someone say to me, you know, we're we're
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: flirting with a potential like Soviet Union collapse level of degradation.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: You know, is that guarantee? No, but that's the sort
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: of level of catastrophe and decline and obvious decline in
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: living standards that we could be facing here in the
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: US because of the way that we are crashing into
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: multipolarity versus having some sort of negotiated transition that would
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: you know, result in a lot less chaos and pain.
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: And when I say this is the big one, you
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: won't see it right now. What you're going to see
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: is the ground for when the next big one happens.
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: People are like, holy shit, it's like the Suez moment, right.
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: That's why what happened with Suez.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: It was the It.
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: Happened after nearly a decade of the post World War
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: two era where the UK was, you know, generally declining
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: in power and the empire was collapsing, and everybody, including
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: the UK, was like, oh my god, like we have
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: no power anymore. But the signs were all there. I mean,
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: what we're saying is that it's all right here like
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: it has been laid out, and then either a Taiwan crisis,
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: which crisis, I mean, what would it look like. We
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: don't really know, a vote for reunification or some sort
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: of pressuring sanctions regime. Who knows, some sort of crisis
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: in between Japan and SOUTHA could be North Korea. I've
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: always started in ear Korea is like the sleeping giant
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: in this one, and some sort of global rewriting event
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: just because of the nuclear problem and now these problems
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: with the United States of security guarantee and China as
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: some sort of a guaranteur. But that's when everybody, everybody
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: will wake up to that one. As of right now,
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: you know, most people are just going to the store
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: four fifty four to fifty gallon. Oh that sucks. It's like,
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: you know, if you if you open your eyes to
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: how it is, it's really, really, really bad.