Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Treading Water | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/27/26

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Monday BEST BETS | Treading Water | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/27/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man, with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man, with bookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my Broins hat. Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have with you,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as I always am until I die, at least oh
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: for me. Own five. The worst month that I've ever
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't know
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: what to even tell you about this anymore. To the
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Slump series, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: It is Monday, April twenty seventh, one and one on
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the show yesterday. Still that gives us a forty eighteen
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: and four current run over the last twenty three days.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I'm still good. You know the I told you it
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: was unsustainable. We probably should have had both wins yesterday.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: The Brewers was an easy win. Kyle Harrison excellent start,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Red Sox should not have traded him away. Twelve strikeouts,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: six inning shutout out of him, one hit aloud, and
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: they wound up with a shot out in the game
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Cleveland calvs. I don't know what to tell you, man.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a great bounce back spot for
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the better team. That's where you want to get your money,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: and in the NBA playoffs, and it looked like they
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: were gonna get it done. I mean I expected them
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: to win way more easily. I mean, they didn't even win,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: but I expected them to win easily, and it looked
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: like they were gonna win in cover. At the end,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: they were winning by eight with like four minutes left.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: It's like, all right, they're just gonna put it away now. No,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: they scored like two more points and they lost the game.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I don't even I don't know what to even think
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: about that they were still winning by four I think
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: in the final minute of the game or something. I
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: just I can't even explain it. Really, it's yeah, really
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: really inexplicable. We're gonna move on to today. I don't
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: like today's board very much, and I'm, you know, just
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: going with what I usually do. I'm gonna have one
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: baseball play I think, you know, I'm gonna go through
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: all the games again and see what I think. I
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: don't think my mind is gonna change. I don't know.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: I'll have one hockey play today. Been really treading lightly
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: with the hockey and I'm looking for those like zig
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: zag spots that I think are appropriate. This one, the
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: money doesn't agree with it at all, So hopefully we're
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: gonna get it, and then I'll give out an NBA
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: play as well, that I don't love as much as
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I loved the last couple that I gave out, and
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: those didn't even win. So I don't know. Well, let's
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: get into it. We have baseball today. It's a Monday,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: so we don't have as much baseball. It's a lighter
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: baseball board today. Teams starting new series, so we have
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to handicap travel and things like that. Here, all the
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: games are in the evening. Tampa Bay at Cleveland is
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: the first game. Cleveland is returning home from Toronto, but
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: kind of a short trip there. It was only a
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: single series road trips. I don't really consider that to
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: be a full road trip return because you know, I
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: like to fade teams that returning over from road trips
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: typically because they have to get back to home life,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: they get distracted, et cetera. In this case, yeah, I
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: don't know. It was a single series away and they
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: lost the last two games to Toronto. Plus when we
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: look at the pitching matchup, it is pretty advantageous to Cleveland,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: I would say, so, I don't really know if we
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: want to fade Cleveland here. Tampa Bay is coming in
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: from home, so they're starting a road trip with momentum.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: They just swept Minnesota. They've won four games in a row.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Sometimes I will look to fade a team coming off
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: a sweep, but I don't think it's a big deal
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: to sweep Minnesota. Tampa going out on the road, usually
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: a team has momentum, you know, has focus to start
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the road trip. Bullpen wise, Tampa used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Their bullpen has not been very good this year, though,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Cleveland two. We're gonna give Cleveland a bullpen edge year.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think they have the better bullpen. Tampa Bay.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Where are they at. They're they've moved up a little
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: bit in whip. Their eer ray is still well over
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: five in the bullpen. They're sitting at twentieth right now.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is tenth. Their eer ray is still not good
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: in the mid forest. But the better bullpen overall, better whips,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: so Cleveland better bullpen. Tampa has had the better hitting
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: eighth in ops, Cleveland is nineteenth. Uh. Steven Motts is
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: pitching for Tampa Bay. He's been mostly good for them
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: this year. All those numbers don't look great right now.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Four point eight one ERA, one point two to three
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: WHIP is not that bad. He had one start where
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: he really got roughed up in his last outing, and
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: we gotta win on that. By the way, we faded
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Motts in that game because of the familiarity that he
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: had with Cincinnati. I thought Cincinnati would hit him. They did.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: They hit three on runs off and we give it
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: four earned runs. Now, you have to decide whether that
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: was a fluke or is he going out of form
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: right now? That's what we have to decide. I mean,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: he's been a decent pitcher throughout his career, but he's
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: back as a starter this year after he was a
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: reliever for a while. His numbers overall are fine, twenty
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts and twenty four and a third innings, twenty
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: hits a lot, but ten walks and five home runs
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: those are the main issues. But again, four walks and
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: three home runs a lot in that last outing. Again
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: it could be a little bit of an outlier, but
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: we did get the win with that. I think we
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: had Chase Burns pitching for Cincinnati and that one Motts
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: versus Cleveland pretty good numbers here, fifty six at bats
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: eight eight strikeout walk ratio is not good, one seventy
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: nine batting average is good six ninety two OPS, so
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: he's held them to mostly low numbers. The OPS is
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: a little higher because Reese Hoskins has three home runs
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: off him, but he has also hit one fifty four
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: off him, so it's like all the hits that he
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: has our home runs pretty much. But Parker met sickest
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: pitching for Cleveland. He's probably their best pitcher. I mean,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: even though he's still young, young lefty almost had a
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: no hitter a couple starts to go one point seven
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: to six ERA point eighty eight whip. He's been really
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: good this season. Twenty nine strikeouts, eight walks, that's a
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: good ratio, nineteen hits, a lot of thirty to two
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: thirds innings. All these numbers are good. He's allowed three
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs in every outing, and that was
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: his most recent outing where he was coming off of
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: that almost no hitter where I talk about if a
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: pitcher like this almost has a no hitter, they're gonna
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: be in a little bit of a letdown spot. After that,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: he still was able to get his team a win there.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: He didn't get the win, but they were still in
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: that game. It was also against a Houston team that's
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: been hitting pretty well, So I'm not gonna really knock
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: him for any of that at all. Messic is good, dude,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: and he's going up against Tampa Bay who have barely
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: seen him. Basically, they have four guys have seen him before.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Twenty two at bats, three strikeouts, no walks, seventy three
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: average five ninety one. Ohps. I'm gonna lean to Tampa Bay.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, I'm gonna lean to Cleveland here. Excuse me. Yeah,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I think they have the better pitching throughout the game.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I think Messic is better than Motts. He's got definitely
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: got a higher ceiling at this point, younger, you know,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: earlier in his career. Minus won thirty five is the
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: price here, seventy eight percent of tickets, ninety eight percent
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Cleveland. I agree with the market
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: read there. Cleveland would be my lean in that game, Kyle,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Saint Louis at Pittsburgh
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: A divisional series here. Pittsburgh is returning home from a
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: two series road trip where they went to Texas and Milwaukee.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: The last leg of this journey, though you know it's
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: a divisional opponent there, going to and you know, going
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: back home to fase another divisional opponent. Not like a
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: very unfamiliar travel spot to them, but still it is
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: a return home spot. They've been away for a week,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: so that is I think a negative. You want to
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: look to usually go against those teams, at least from
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: a situational perspective. Maybe they're gonna be a little bit
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: distracted here. They did just lose the last game of
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the road trip. We had the win with that with
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee yesterday. Pretty big series between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. Maybe
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: they'll still get up for a series against Saint Louis
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: because they are above five hundred still. But I don't
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: think Saint Louis is very good. They've lost four games
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: in a row now. But it's a more positive situation
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: for Saint Louis because they are starting a road trip.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Sometimes when you're losing at home, one of the best
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: things to do just leave home, go out on the road,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: and then you can refocus. As far as the bullpen usage,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis used three relievers yesterday. Pittsburgh also used three.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis's bullpen has not been good this year. I
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: think have an ERA above five. They're twenty third in whip.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh hasn't been excellent, but they're at fourteenth. Their whip
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: is higher than the ERA would suggest, but their eras
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: pretty good in the low threes, decent bullpen. They are
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: better than Saint Louis at least. Saint Louis has hit
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: decently this year. They're at thirteenth in ops right now.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has phone all the way to twenty first after
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: a hot start. Although I don't know. I thought both
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: offenses coming into the season were not really that good.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I don't really think Saint Louis is better than Pittsburgh's though,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna put much weight into those numbers.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Dustin May's pitcher for Saint Louis. You know, you know
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: my feelings about May. I think he stinks. The Red
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Sox never should have traded for him, one of the
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: worst trades ever. They traded Tibbs for him, and Tibbs
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: is ripping it up in triple A right now for
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. May his numbers overall this year stink five
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: point eight four ERA, one point five for whip. However,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: he has had three good starts in a Row picked
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: up a win, and all three gave up one run
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: in each. His walk rate went way, so he's actually
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. Thirteen to two strike out
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: walk ratio over that span, you know, not facing the
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: greatest offenses there though, Boston, Cleveland, Miami, so you know,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh might actually be a step up from that. The
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: best offense that he faced this year was Detroit in
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: my opinion, and they wrecked him. That was on the road.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: But overall, twenty to five strike out walk ratio. That's
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: not bad. But he's been too hit a ball thirty
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: three hits in twenty four and two thirds innings. He's
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. I'm not ready to say
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: that May is actually good right now because he still
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good since his injury and Tommy John surgery
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: and whatever. Is it possible that he does well here? Yeah,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: it is. His numbers against Pittsburgh are very bad though,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: in twenty two at bats. I know it's not a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: huge sample, but the majority of their hitters have faced
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: him before. Five to five strike out walk ratio, four
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: fifty five average allowed, fifteenth en ops. That's some bad stuff.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Three home runs all out as well, to three different batters.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean May is in good form right now,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: but he has really bad matchup numbers here. Pittsburgh has
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Mason Montgomery listed as their starter. He's gonna be an opener.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: He's got a three point nine to seventy RA one
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: point five whip, but he's a reliever. He's been an
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: opener multiple times this year. I think he pitched two
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: days ago to so you know, he's only gonna give
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: you an inning. And I don't know who Pittsburgh is
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: gonna have as a follower behind him. You know, if we,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I guess, if we look at Pittsburgh's rotation, we can
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: kind of try to figure it out. So they had
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Schemes Keller, Chandler Moldzinsky pitch in their last few games.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Moldzinsky pitched yesterday. Ashcraft is on bereavement right now. It
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: looks like that's very unfortunate. So yeah, probably like a
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know, some family emergency or something along those lines.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: So you know, I don't know, I honestly don't know
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: what Pittsburgh is gonna do here. It might mean that
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: they might be able to call somebody up to come
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: in after that, but it could be a bullpen game
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh today, which I really don't want any part
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: of that. So I am probably gonna lead say Louis
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: slightly here, but I don't really want anything to do
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: with May either though. Those bad matchup numbers, but the
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: situation in May's current form might be able to overcome that.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's at minus one twenty nine. They're getting the money
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: though it looks like seventy six percent of tickets ninety
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on them. An over might
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: be worth consideration here. I mean, you have two bullpens
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: that aren't really that trustworthy. I don't think you could
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: trust Dustin May, particularly bad matchup numbers from him. Plus
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: this bullpen situation for Pittsburgh, whatever they're gonna do today
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem great to me, So an over might be
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: in consideration here. The total's gone up a little bit,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: it's sitting at eight. We don't really see the numbers
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: on it yet. Eighty eight percent of the tickets are
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: on the over. But yeah, I mean, maybe over would
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: actually be my preferred approach in that one. My Boston
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are going to Toronto. The Red Sox did
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: just win a series. How's that possible? They had the
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: like spark if you want to call it that, from
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: the fired manager situation, which I forgot to go into
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: that in more detail. But that's just a thing. I
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: think it's more of a thing in the other sports though, hockey, basketball, football,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: whenever a team fires their coach, a lot of times
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: you get a big effort out of that team in
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: the first game because the players want to prove that
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: they aren't the problem. The coach was the problem. But
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: also maybe they weren't responding to that coach. Maybe they
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: get a spark because they want to play for that
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: new coach. In the case of the Red Sox, I
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: got it wrong, by the way. Chad Tracy is their
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: new manager. He is a guy they brought up from
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: their Triple A club in Worcester. But he is not
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: the Chad Tracy that I thought, dude, all these years,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: I thought he was the Chad Tracy that I remember
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: watching like earlier, earlier in my life. I remember Chad Tracey,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: the baseball player, the third baseman. I thought that's who
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: it was, and it's not. It's a different Chad t Acy,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: but very very weird. But all right, whatever. He's a
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: chad at least anyway. The Red Sox do have a
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: little bit of momentum here. I don't know if that's
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: really gonna set up a let down. I mean, they're
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: in last place in the division. They got to keep
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: trying to win these games here. Toronto is staying at
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: home though, so Toronto a little bit of a travel edge,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: but you know, they just want a series against Cleveland.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's that big of a deal.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: They're probably gonna get up for a game against the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Red Sox thing, you know, so I don't think momentum
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: is really gonna be an issue here. Red Sox do
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: have the better of the two bullpens. They had pretty
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: light use Sage yesterday. They did use Chapman, but only
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: for seven pitches. Sometimes they will use him multiple days
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: in a row. They used three guys out of the
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday, but used two of them for single digit pitches.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Toronto's bullpen hasn't been that good. They used four guys
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: out of it yesterday. Red Sox have the bullpen edge here.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: They're still a top ten and bullpen and whip their
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: ras alright, so you know, you get a lot of
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: the complaints from the Red Sox fans, but the bullpen
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that bad. Toronto not quite as good their
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: eras in the mid four as they're eighteenth in whip.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Toronto is starting to hit a little bit better. I
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: don't know if they're getting some of their injured guys
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: back or what. Their offense isn't that bad though, but
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: they are eighteenth right now. You know, ps still better
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: than the Red Sox at twenty seventh, although I think
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: both offenses are a little bit better than where they're
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: ranked here. But yeah, Toronto probably is the better offense here.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Ron Jr. Suarez is pitching for the Red Sox. He's
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: been decent. I mean, he struggled early in the season,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: but he's definitely come around. He's got a four ERA
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: one point one to five whip and those numbers are
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: not bad. Nineteen to eight strike out walk ratio. I mean,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: the number of walks isn't that bad. It's just he's
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: not really that much of a strikeout guy. So I'm
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: okay with that. Twenty three hits allowed in twenty seven innings.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: He still hasn't a lot more than four earned runs
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: in any outing he did a lot of four his
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: last one against the Yankees. It is the Yankees. They
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: can hit pretty well. He had two shutout performances in
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the prior to outings. I think he might do okay here.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Like I said, he's been in better form over his
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: last three starts than he was in his first two.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe getting used to his new surroundings and whatever. Numbers
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: against Toronto are pretty good in twenty seven at bats
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: is a small sample, but one forty eight batting average allowed,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: three fifty five ohps. Those are very low numbers. They
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: have no extra base hits off him, eight to two
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio. Suarez may very well do well here.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: He is going up against Dylan Cease and you know,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, Ceesa has alright numbers. Two point one ERA
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: is certainly good, but one point two to nine whip
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: it's not awful. But he walks way too many guys. Dude,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: He's he's just completely wild. He's a wild man. I mean,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: that's always been my beef with him. He's one of
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: the most inefficient pitchers in baseball in my opinion, not
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: even really my opinion, I mean kind of objectively. He
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: does not go deep into games because he throws way
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: too many pitches. That's kind of the problem with him.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: He's a very good strikeout pitcher, but it's almost like
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: he's too good. He has forty four strikeouts and twenty
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: five to two thirds innings, but fourteen walks, so he's
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: walking you know, yeah whatever, that is like more than
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: a half. He's walking more than one guy every two winnings.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: But he's only allowed nineteen hits in that span as well.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: He's only gone six innings once this entire season though,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: so again, he throws too many pitches. He threw over
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: one hundred pitches in each of his last two outings.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: That's gonna catch up to you, man, especially if you're
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: throwing really hard like Sees does. He's thirty years old, now,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know. That's again that's always been my issue
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: with him. His whip is always a little bit too
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: high because of the walks, but the strikeouts do help
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: him to limit the runs that he allows. He's not
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: a bad pitcher, but I think I always thought he
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: was overrated. He wasn't really that good last year in
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: a picture friendly park in San Diego, and his history
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: against the Red Sox is not particularly good in fifty
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: four at bats nineteen to five strike out walk ratio
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: is fine, but two ninety six batting average allowed eight
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: fifty six ops not good stuff. So I think the
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have a pitching edge here, starting pitching and bullpen.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: My leen is the Red Sox here. You're gonna get
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: them as an underdog if you want it. Money line,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Red Sox probably makes sense to me here. Toronto's minus
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: one thirty six seventy percent of tickets ninety eight percent
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Toronto. You know, you might be
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: paying a little bit too much on Toronto because of
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox struggles. Because Dylan Ceese has that name recognition.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: I think, yeah, there might be some value in getting
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox at that much of an underdog price.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: With that being the matchup. That one almost made my cut,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: you know, I almost put that on my card. Red
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Sox money line, so do with that information what you
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: want the money seems like it doesn't really agree with
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: me though, trying to be really selective here, man, Josh,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out Anaheim at Chicago. The
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: White Sox are staying at home. I believe. Yeah, they
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: lost in a surprisingly low scoring game. I mean, I
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: did have a slight lean to the over in that
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: game yesterday, although I actually kind of liked under first
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: five as well, which you know, when you have a
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: game like that, how do you you know it's impossible
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: to what's the word I'm looking for, It's impossible to
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: get those two to, you know, mesh with each other,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. I forget what the word
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: is that I'm looking for. I'll figure it out later.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: But the White Sox did lose the home series to
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: the Nationals. They are staying at home here could be
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: a bounce back spot. I mean, they're not traveling, so
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: that's not horrible at least. Anaheim is traveling in from
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: getting swept in Kansas City. Not a huge travel leg
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: for them here either, But they might be in a
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: better spot here to bounce back as well, because they
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: just got swept. So when a team gets swept like
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: that a lot of times, the new series will be
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: like a reset button for them. So that makes me
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: not really hate the situation for Anaheim here. I don't
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: like the bullpens on either side here. The White Sox
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: might be even worse than Anaheim, though, Anaheim used five
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, which is not good. The White Sox
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: use three, so a little bit lighter usage from the
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: White Sox. But the White Sox have the third worst
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: bullpen in whip and one of the worst bullpen eras.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is better, but not by too much. Where are
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: they at? Yeah? Where is Anaheim? How do I not
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: see them here? Oh? Yeah, they're barely better at all.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Their ERA is actually worse. Their whip is actually tied
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: with the White Socks, so Anaheim's is actually yeah, Anaheim
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: actually has a worse bullpen. Yeah, these numbers move a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: lot early in the season. Man. As far as offense,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Anaheim does have the better offense, even though they're very
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: home run dependent. They have a nine. They're ninth in ops.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: The White Sox are like twenty something, twenty fourth. Jack
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: Khanno would suspicion for the Angels, And you know he's
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: been a guy where I was just like, yeah, his
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: career is just not working out, man, But he actually
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that bad this year. Three point one ERA,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: one point two four whip. Those are more than acceptable numbers,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: except his walk number is still really bad. He's got
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: nineteen strikeouts. He's never really been a strikeout guy in
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: twenty nine innings, but seventeen walks. That is a problem,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: multiple walks in every outing. But he's also been hard
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: to hit. Nineteen hits allowed, and he's only allowed one
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: home run. You know, since his opening start where he
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: got blasted by Houston five earned runs, five walks in
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: that outing, He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: every April start. So he's actually pitching fairly well here
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: except for the walks. And yeah, those walks could catch
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: up to you, but the rest of his numbers look okay.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: You know, he's pitching better than he has before, so
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: at least you can give him that. Only four White
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Sox hitters have faced him before twenty four at bats.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: They have one extra base hit, which is a home
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: run from Colesa Montgomery, but four strikeouts, one walk, one
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: sixty seven batting average four ninety two ohps off of him.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Klehanowitz might be able to do well in this game
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: because he's facing a lineup that's not that strong and
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: they haven't done that well against him, and they have
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: kind of some unfamiliarity against him as well. And I
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: actually probably prefer him over whatever the hell the White
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Sox are doing here with Anthony Kay listed as the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: starter here five point five seven ERA one point five
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: to seven whip. You look at this guy's career, basically,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: it's a career that never took off. It's spent a
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: lot of it as a relief pitcher. Before this year,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: he hadn't been in the majors for three years. He's
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: not doing well this year. He got lit up in
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: his last outing against Arizona. I don't expect him to
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: be that bad again, but he's only made it to
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: the five inning mark once this season. He's got a
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: thirteen to twelve strikeout walk ratio. He's allow exactly one
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: hit per inning. This is just not good stuff. Man.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: It's not trustworthy. Yeah, I mean it sounds crazy, but
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I like Kohana. It's better than k Angels. Haven't really
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: seen much of a k at all. They have four
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: at bats against them. They're two for four with a
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: double from Solaire, one strikeout, no walks. You know I'm
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: gonna lean Anaheim here. I think the situation is a
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: little bit better for them. The money is hitting them
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: as well. Sixty percent tickets ninety nine percent of the
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I don't love their bullpen, but both
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: bullpens sucks, So I mean, you could go first five
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: if you really want to take that out of the equation,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: but I'm not as worried about that, you know, again,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: because both bullpens are almost equally bad, so it's like whatever,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: and the White Sox are I think, actually likely to
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: go to their bullpen first, So I'm okay with going
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: full game here with the Angels being in bounce back
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: mode he or whatever. Uh yeah, sixty percent tickets, ninety
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on Anaheim at minus one fifteen.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: There is a reason why they're favored on the road.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily disagree with the over in this one either.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: The total is at nine seventy five percent of the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: tickets are on the under eighty nine percent of the
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: cash on the over. If you go over, obviously, full
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: game is what you want to do because the bullpens.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: You want to include those in that equation because the
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: bullpens are awful. So that is what I would do there,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: if you went over, That's what I would do. That
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: would be my recommendation on the total Anaheim over their
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: team total. Makes some sense too, because they might be
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: like the They might be doing the heavy lifting in
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: this one as far as the offense is concerned. The
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: White Sox may not be able to quite score as
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: much here. But yeah, I think my preference is to
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: play Anaheim on the money line in that one, though.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Minnesota's on Fox Sports one. Minnesota is traveling.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: They're returning on from a road trip. I should say
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: they went to the Mets and Tampa Bay and they
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: lost five games in a road and road trip. So
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: I think the knee jerk reaction for the public is, oh,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Minnesota was good before that, they're gonna bounce back now
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: that they're back at home. But I think that is
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: the wrong way to look at it, because you know,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: I always talk about when a team returns home from
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: a road trip, it's a distracted spot. A lot of times.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: They got to get back to home life. That stuff
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: factors in man. I mean, they might not overlook Seattle
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: because Seattle is known as a pretty good team. They're
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: starting to play better, but Seattle is the better team here,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: and Seattle is playing well right now. They've won four
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: games in a row. They are coming off a sweep,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: which sometimes that puts you in a letdown spot, but
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. When you sweep the Cardinals,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's really that big of a deal.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Seattle was favored in every one of those games. They're
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: only traveling from Saint Louis to Minnesota. Hear not really
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: that bad. So I think Seattle is in the better
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: situational spot here. Bullpen wise, Seattle definitely has the better bullpen.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: They use three relief pitchers yesterday, but they do have
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: some really good pictures in that bullpen. They usually use
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: one of the two top guys out of the bullpen
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: every other game to keep at least one of them fresh,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: which is what they're doing right now. Minnesota used four,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: but it was pretty light usage for the most part.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: But Minnesota's bullpen's not good. They're twenty sixth in bullpen
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: whip ERA. Not really much better than that, although it
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: is below five, but that's not saying a whole lot. Seattle.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Their bullpen's in the threes. Their whip is a little
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: bit their era. I mean, the bullpen whip is a
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: little bit higher than that. But I think they're a
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: pretty good bullpen. I think they're really a top ten
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: bullpen hitting. Seattle has started hitting a little bit better.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: They're up to seventeenth now, which I think they're maybe
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: even a slightly above average offense. They might be able
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: to improve a little bit off of that. I think
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: they're the better offense actually in Minnesota is below them
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: in OPS now twenty first after a hot start. Luis
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Castillo's pitching for Seattle. He is definitely the more proven
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: of the two pitchers going today by a lot, got
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: way more experience. He hasn't really been that good this
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: year though, five point zero one ERA one point seven
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: to one whip. We did play on his game in
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: the last game against the A's, I think we had
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Seattle in that game. He was fine. He went five innies,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: gave up two tour and runs, six strikeouts, two walks.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: At home. He's usually a little bit better at home though,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: which is one issue here. Him pitching on the road
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: is usually not quite as good because Seattle's very, very
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly. But he wasn't the reason they lost that game,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, they couldn't score in the game.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: The bullpen actually didn't do well in the game. It
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: is what it is. I think clearly Castillo is better
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: than what these numbers would suggest this year, though, like
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: we've seen what he's done over his career. He's thirty three.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: He's not old enough to be falling off a cliff,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: so I think he is going to turn it around.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: His numbers are being skewed by one really bad outing
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: against Houston. Twenty three to nine strikeout walk ratio. It's
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: not great. He's got to get that walk number down
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Thirty one hits a lot in twenty
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: three to third innings is the problem. But again a
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: lot of that damage came in that one bad outing
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: against Houston. So I don't think Castillo is bad going
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: up against who are we talking about here? I I
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: already forget Minnesota. Yeah, Minnesota not that prolific of an offense.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: His numbers are pretty good against them, one hundred and
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: thirteen of bats we have a big sample size to
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: look at, thirty two to twelve. So I got walk ratio.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: That is too many walks again, but he's held to
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: a one ninety five average five point fifty five ops.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good stuff. So Castillo has done well against Minnesota.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I think he should be able to do well here.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Connor Prelip is fitted for Minnesota and he is going
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to be a bit of a mystery here. I talked
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: about him. He made his major league debut when his
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: last outing, and it was not bad. You know, he's
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: a fairly tall left hander, kind of a he's a
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: burly guy at six two two ten. I think he's
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: got decent stuff, dude, you know, I looked at his arsenal.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I think he has like a decent pitch mix there.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: Throws decently hard throws from kind of a deceptive arm angle,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: as a lot of lefties do. He pitched pretty well
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: in his first outing. It was against the Mets, and
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: I know the Mets have really not been good offensively.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: He went four innings. They kept him a little bit limited.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: He didn't have to throw. He kind of threw too
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: many pitches eighty two. But I think, you know, the
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Twins were probably keeping him on a bit of a
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: leash there in his first start. He gave up tour
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: and runs on four hits in that outing and had
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts and no walks. That is a good sign
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: his command was right on in that game. With all
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: those strikeouts, and no walks. So I actually think pre
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Lip could do well here. Again, he's facing obviously a
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: lineup that's never seen him before because he's new to
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: the majors. So and I think he had a bit
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: of a delayed start to his major league career though
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: he's twenty five. I think he has already had Tommy
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: John surgery. Has so many pitchers due it's way too
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: common now. Man. It's just like, yeah, let's just go
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: out and get some TJ today. You know, hoo a
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: we face oh yeah, Seattle. Yeah, Seattle obviously hasn't faced
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: him before, So Prelip might actually be able to do
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: well here as well. I'm gonna lean under in this game.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, the money is kind of indicating towards the over.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: The total looks like it's headed towards nine. You know,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: maybe a first five under might make more sense because
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's bullpen is I think the biggest negative as far
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: as trying to play the under here. I don't worry
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: about Seattle's bullpen really, but fifty tickets sixty nine percent
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over, yeah, I would lean under.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: Prelip is a little bit of a mystery though we
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: don't really know if he's gonna do well again here
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: or not. But again, these young pitchers that have good stuff,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: they tend to have an advantage against offenses that I've
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: never seen them before. First five under in this game
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and I
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: think that is the preferred way that I would play
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: this game. The first five under. I lean Seattle as well.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: They have six six per tickets ninety nine percent of
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: the cash. Hey, I'm agreeing with the market a lot today,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: except I don't on the Red Sox. Yeah, minus one
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: thirty one is the price on Seattle, So do with
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: that information what you want. But yes, I don't know
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: if I mentioned the percentages on Toronto, but they have
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: seventy percent of tickets and ninety eight percent of the
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: cash on Toronto. But I disagree with that market. Read
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: there all right? Yankees at Texas. Texas is staying at home.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: They just lost the series to the A's. Could be
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: bounced back time for them, and they're not gonna overlook
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, but they're gonna have to face one of
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: the yankees better pitchers here. Yankees did just lose a
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: win streak, though they're only traveling from Houston to Texas,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: which is in Arlington. The Dallas area not a huge
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: travel spot there for the Yankees. But I talk about this.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: When you have an eight game win streak like the
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Yankees did and then you lose it, a lot of
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: times that will hang you over into the next game
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: because it's like your momentum just completely comes to a
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: stop and then you might not do well in the
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: next game. So that might happen to the Yankees here.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen usage, Yankees only used two
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: guys out of the bullpen yesterday and none of their
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: better relievers really, so their bullpen is in decent shape here.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Texas also only used two. Texas has the better bullpen, though.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Texas is one of the best bullpens in baseball their
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: second in Whip. Now, I think they're one of the
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: top two. Them in San Diego wherever the hell sitting?
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Where's San Diego on this list? Now? Yeah? Wow, San
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Diego's down out of the top ten. Now, yeah, I
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: don't really buy that. They got really screwed by having
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: to play in Mexico. Citty man, and then uh yeah,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: where's the Yankees? Yankees are at sixteenth. Not a terrible bullpen,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: but you know, yeah, Texas definitely has the better bullpen.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Yankees have the better offense. They're at fifth in OPS,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: Texas is twentieth, so yeah, no question about that. Max
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Free is the better pitcher here as well. He's got
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: a two point four ERA point seven to seven whip.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: He is pitching for the Yankees here. He is coming
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: off pretty much dominating the Red Sox, so the that's
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: a you know, he might be in a little bit
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: of a letdown after that, and he was in bad
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: form going into that game against the Red Sox. But
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: I think his numbers are I don't remember actually if
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: they're good against the Red Sox or not. But the
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Red Sox offense obviously has been struggling, so I don't
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: know if Freed is like completely back in form or not.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: You know, his overall numbers are pretty good, thirty two
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: to ten strike out walk ratio, only twenty two hits
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: allowed him forty one to a third innings. Obviously, that
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: is good. He's going up against an offense that is
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: not that good and in a pitcher friendly park. He's
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: done well against Texas in the past. We have one
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: hundred and eleven at bats sample sized to look at,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: and they only eighteen hits off him. Thirty nine to
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: fourteen strike a walk ratio is a lot of walks,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: but one sixty two batting average allowed five twenty six ops.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: I probably would expect Free to do pretty well in
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: this game. He's going up against Jack Lighter, who has
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: been kind of all over the place. Four point nine
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: to seventy RA, one point four to six whip Those
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: are not great numbers. He's a good strikeout pitcher. He's
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: got twenty nine strikeouts in twenty five and a third innings,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: but he has eleven walks allowed in twenty six hits allowed. Yeah,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: he's just not in the greatest of form right now.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Multiple walks in three straight outings definitely some concerns here, though.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I think he is better at home though it's a
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: more picture friendly park. Yah. So far this year he
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: has a three point six HOMEYRA five point eighty seven
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: on the road, so he is better at home. His
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Yankees are actually good. In twenty one
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: at bats, he only have three hits off him. One
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: extra base hit is a double from Judge six to
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: four strikeout walk ratio is not very good, but one
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: forty three batting average allowed four to seventy ops, so
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: you know, lighter being better at home. Decent numbers against
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, there are some indicators that you might pitch
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: okay here. The Yankees are a very public side. Ninety
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: two percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: on them. They're at minus one sixty six, which has
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: dropped from minus one seventy eight. The Yankees with free
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: and on the mound, you're almost always gonna pay at
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: tax for them, man, So they're probably being a little
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: bit overrated here. If you did want to play Texas,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: you got to play full game on Texas that you
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: get the bullpen advantage in your favor there. But I
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: think I would go under in this game, actually full game.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't think either bullpen is that bad,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: Texas is is good. Both bullpens have well. Yankees have
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: their high leverage arms available. Texas didn't use much of
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: theirs either. I think it under makes sense in this game. Man,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: It's a pitcher friendly park. Both pitchers have good matchup numbers. Yeah,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: under is probably the way I would lean there. Speaking
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: of which Cubs at San Diego. This is going to
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: be my play, and you would think that I would
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: be taking San Diego here, or excuse me, the Cubs.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Excuse you think I'd be taking the Cubs here because
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: San Diego is in a very weird travel spot. They're
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: returning over from a road trip where they went to Anaheim,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: then into elevation to Colorado, and then into even higher
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: elevation in Mexico City. So they were in Mexico City
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: yesterday and now they're back home. So yes, it is
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: a return home spot. That's a bad spot. You get distracted,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: you have to get back to home life. Whatever. But
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure they're gonna overlook the Cubs here.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: It is a really weird travel spot though, to have
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: to travel from Mexico City, which is not something these
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: teams are really used to, you know. So I'm not
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: really gonna disagree with the Cubs side here, but I'm
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: gonna fade San Diego in a different way. This is
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: my best bet in baseball. Yeah, I'm gonna fade San
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Diego's offense instead, and I'm gonna go under the total here,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Cubs san Diego under eight in this game. I think
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: people might not want to do this because these are
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: not name pitchers on the mound here today, So I
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: think we're getting a total that might be pretty reasonable
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: here for a game in San Diego, by the way,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: which is a pitcher friendly ballpark and at night it's
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: even more pitcher friendly. Now. The Cubs, yeah, they're seen
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: as a very good offense. San Diego is seen as
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: having a decent offense as well. The Cubs did just
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: get shut out yesterday, though, so I think that does
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: set up the Cubs for a bounce back, So I
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: don't hate the Cubs side, obviously. I think the travel
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: spot for San Diego is weird. The Cubs coming off
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: playing the Dodgers though, so that was a big series,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: so you could still make the argument that maybe it's
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot for the Cubs after that, But they
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: got shut out yesterday six to nothing, So when that
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: happens a lot of times you will see that team
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: bounce back. So I don't disagree with the Cubs here,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: but I think, you know, with the San Diego return
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: home spot and whatever, and it becoming a distraction, I
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: think the main like, if the team gets distracted, that
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: means the hitters are gonna be distracted, you know what
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: I mean. So I'm gonna play on that angle. Whereas
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: I think a single starting pitcher can overcome the distraction
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: angle more than the hitting can you know what I mean,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: Because the hitting is a group of guys, so as
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: a whole, they could be more distracted. Whereas the starting pitcher,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: because you know, he has a pitch for a while,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: he's been getting ready for the start for a while.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: You know. In fact, I'm not even one hundred percent
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: sure he traveled with the team over the weekend. You know,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: I probably did, but you know, I'm not even sure
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: about that. So this is the angle I'm gonna go with.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna fade San Diego's hitting instead, because I think
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: their hitting might fall into the distracted angle. They might
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: not be hitting well in this game. Yesterday we saw
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: a very high scoring game in Mexico City twelve to seven.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Arizona actually won the game. I had that game wrong,
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: you know, it is what it is. I didn't want
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: to play that game because there were so many things
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: that you know, we're hard to predict in that game. Anyway,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: as far as the bullpen usage, heear San Diego did
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: use four relief pitchers in that game. They didn't really
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: use any of their like absolute top relievers though, so
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: some of their high leverage arms, including their closer Miller,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: are all available in this game, so that's good for
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: us playing the under. San Diego still has most of
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: their better relievers available today. The Cubs only used two
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, so I think we're all right with
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: the Cubs bullpen here as well. And the Cubs bullpen
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: has been pretty good this year. They've been on the rise.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: Their eighth in whip right now and San Diego, I
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: told you they're eleventh, but they are an elite bullpen. Obviously,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: they have the best closer in baseball. They have a
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: really really strong back end of the bullpen, so I'm
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: kind of surprise their whip isn't that good right now.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we have two pretty good bullpens here. Yes,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: the Cubs are good offense, but I think good pitching
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: defeats good hitting more often than a dozen. The Cubs
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: are fourth and OPS. San Diego has not hit well
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: though they're at twenty third in OPS and well, I
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: think they might be better than that. They're not great
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: and We're looking at a very pitcher friendly park here.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Matthew Boyd is pitching for the Cubs. His numbers don't
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: look good if you just look on the surface, five
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: point seventy nine era. That looks awful, right, So why
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: would we want to play an under here? Well, his
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: whip is one point one four, so that era is
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: extremely misleading. His era definitely should be lower than that.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: He has a very good twenty two to three strike
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio in fourteen innings, thirteen hits allowed. All
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: these numbers are good. He got kind of blown up
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: in his first start against Washington. I know he hasn't
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: really gone deep into any start yet, but I'm still
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: okay with this, and we get the bullpen behind him
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: that I don't mind either. Boyd has been good like
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: for the last couple of seasons. Man. I don't know
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: what it is because he's he's thirty five now, but
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: he found something two seasons ago with Cleveland and he
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: did not lose it going to the Cubs last year.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: He pitched well last season, so to me, it looks
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: like it is going to continue. I think his era
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: right now is very misleading. His command numbers are really good.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: As I already pointed out. The whip is good, so
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: I think he could do well here against a mediocre
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: lineup at best in San Diego and in a pitcher
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: friendly park. His numbers are not that good against San Diego,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: so I do worry a little bit there. Eighty one
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: at bats, sixteen to five strike at walk ratio two
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: eighty four batting aurage allowed, seven to eighty two ops.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: It's another reason why I don't actually want to play
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: the Cubs here, because he has the worst matchup numbers,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: but they're not horrible. They're kind of in that mediocre range,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, where I think we could
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: still roll with Boyd here in the more pitcher friendly park.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Randy Vasquez's pitcher for San Diego. He's the guy that
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: I haven't loved, you know, throughout his career, he just
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: always was very, very walk heavy. But his numbers have
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: been really good this year. One point eight eight ERA,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: one point oh eight whip. He's been really good this year,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: thirty to eight strike out walk ratio, twenty eight to
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: two thirds in he's pitch twenty three hits allowed, only
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: one home run allowed. He's allowed more than one more
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: than one and run and only one start this season
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: at home against Seattle. For whatever reason, that was the
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: really the one start where he had major walk issues.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: He bounced right back with a shutout seven inning performance
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: in course field. It's not a good Colorado lineup, but coursefield, man,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: you know, not easy place to play. Now, you could
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: make the argument he's faced a bunch of bad offenses
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: like Boston Colorado twice. Seattle's not that bad. They did
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: light him up Detroit. He was able to hold Detroit scoreless, though,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: So you know, I think overall he's gonna give you
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: a good outing here against the Cubs. I know the
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Cubs are gonna be the best offense he's faced. But
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: his numbers are pretty good against him in forty eight
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: at bats eight to four strike out walk ratio, two
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: to fifty batting average allowed, six forty one ops allowed.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: So I don't mind those numbers. I'm looking at, you know,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: just these pitchers in general being pretty good. The money
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: is not really telling us a whole lot here. The
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: number's gone up a little bit to that eight seven
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: is the key number obviously, So seven and a half
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: or eight, they're both almost the same thing. Sixty nine
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over seventy four percent of
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. But we're gonna go under
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: with this one, man, and the money is leaning towards
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: the Cubs slightly, even though Boyd's matchup numbers aren't as
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: good seventy five percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Cubs. They're at minus one oh seven.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: I lean to the Cubs as well because of the
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: weird travel spot for San Diego. But I'm gonna do
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: it differently, of course, and go under the total in
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: that game. Dude. I don't know, man, I'm a little
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: bit worried about my place today, man, honestly, which maybe
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: that's better, you know, Like I was pretty confident of
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: those basketball plays recently and they lost, so probably, you know,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: yesterday's Cleveland one s and have lost. But it is
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: what it is. And then we have Miami at the
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: Dodgers here. Dodgers just beat the Cubs, they shut them
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: out yesterday, blew them out the game before that. They're
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: staying at home. Could be a letdown spot for the Dodgers.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: That was a highly anticipated weekend series between two teams
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: that are likely to make the playoffs. In my opinion,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: maybe there's a little let down for the Dodgers here
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: with Miami coming in. Miami is in California, so they're
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: only coming in from San Francisco. They did just lose
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: the series in San Francisco. They're gonna get up for
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: the game against the Dodgers. The problem is the matchup
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: does not really suit Miami in this game. As far
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: as the bullpen usage. Miami used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers used three as well. Miami has actually been
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: decent in the bullpen. They're ninth in whip right now.
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers are actually seventh, but their era is above four.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: They've both been okay bullpen's. At the very least, Miami's
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: probably is a little bit better hitting wise. Obviously, Dodgers
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: number one, Miami is twelve. Miami's kind of fallen down
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Obviously, the Dodgers have the better offense.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: The problem is this is a big pitching mismatch in
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: favor of the Dodgers. Here. Miami's got Chris Paddock pitching.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: He is not very good. Six point three eighty RA
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: one point five to four whip. That is not good.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: His twenty five to six strike up walk ratio is
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: very good, actually, but he's given up thirty one hits
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: in five home runs and twenty four innings. So his
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: command numbers look really good, but he's been way too hittable.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: You know, he's gotta somehow fix that, man, Not like
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: he's putting way too many pitches over the plate. I mean,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: I think that is fixable, but I don't know. Man,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: he hasn't fixed it, and he's thirty years old at
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: this point. At this point, I don't know if I
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: see it happening. Miami's lost four of his five outings.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: He's not in particularly good form right now, despite having
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: good command numbers, just leaving everything over the plate, it's
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: not gonna work out. Man. Against the Dodgers, his numbers
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: are not that bad though. In sixty two at bats,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: sixteen to four strike out walker race, you're two twenty
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: six average allowed, seven forty oh ps. Those are not
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: bad numbers. But he's going up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: I think is the best pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: Two point four to eighty ra point eight nine whip.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing,
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: two or fewer in all but one. The most recent
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: started against San Francisco, which was still a good start.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: He got no run support there, and actually he gave
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: up all three runs in that game in the first
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: inning and then settled down for six scoreless after that,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: and we got the undercorrect in that game. Despite that
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: very scary start, He's got a twenty eight to five
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, twenty four hits allowed in thirty
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: two and two thirds innings. Really good numbers out of him.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: You know, not much else to say here. He's going
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: up against Miami, who I think haven't even eat him before. Yeah,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: so somehow Miami's never even faced it before. So that's
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: an extra advantage to Yama Modo. I mean, at this
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: point he's approven like basically ace, and he has the
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: advantage of unfamiliarity as well. So I do not want
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: to go against that. Dodgers are minus two eighty five
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: down for minus three h five. You can't lay. You
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: cannot lay a price like that. I would not I
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: would not even lay the run line. I wouldn't do it.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: You know, the situation is not that good for the
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: Dodgers nine tickets ninety nine percent of the cash on
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. I think if you want to do this,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: I would say, you know, maybe you go with Yama
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: Moto like, go with the Yama Moto prop. Let me
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: see what his prop is on this, because when I
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: mentioned this prop last time, I didn't actually look. I'm
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: gonna look right now at his prop to go over
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: his projected number of outs. Let me see. I'm looking
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: at the good old DK here outs recorded over under Yamamoto. Uh,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: it's at eighteen and a half. You might be able
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: to get an alternate line on this, though the over
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: that is at plus one twenty one. That is a
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: lot though eighteen and a half that means he needs
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: to at least record one out in the seventh inning
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: to hit that. I don't know. I'm wondering if if
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: DK like has alternate lines on this. You know, I
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: don't do much with the props. I don't know what
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: alternate lines they might have here. You might be able
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: to find it in a different book, though. If you
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: can find eighteen on that, it might be worth going over,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: which means he'll he needs to at least complete six innings.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: But I think he can do it in that game,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: or I guess another approach is to go with Miami
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: to go like under their first five team total, if
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: you find a book that has that available. Those are
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: some ways to approach the game. But you want to
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: keep on Yamamoto pitching well in that game, I think, plus,
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: after his bad start to the last outing, he might
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: be more locked in, you know, so that that doesn't
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: happen again. Even though he had a good start after that.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: He doesn't want to allow three runs in the first
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: inning again, you know, so you might get a better
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: start out of him in this one. So those are
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: some ways to approach that padres under the Yeah, that
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: game under seven and a half it even money. Do
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: you have other books available? I don't know. I mean
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: I think that's fine. Under seven and a half it
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: even money. It's not very It's not really different from
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: eight really, I mean, yeah, I mean the way that
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: I saw it at eight minus one ten, so that
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: was my preferred approach there. But yeah, I mean seven
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: and a half it even money. You're still getting that
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: key number. The seven and a half. The hook like
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: that half run matters more than the half run to
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: get it up to eight. You know what I mean?
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Seven is the key number because it breaks the three
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: three time. So getting seven to seven and a half
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: is worth like probably twice as much as going from
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to eight, if that makes sense.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: Although yeah, obviously it's theoretically possible you wind up with
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: a five to three final, you know, which would be
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: very unlucky if you have a seven and a half.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: But yeah, all right, I'm gonna be right back, and
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: then i'll talk about the playoffs. Playoffs. We're gonna go
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: to NHL first. I do have one play and I'm
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: worried about it. You might know what it is. I'll
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: be right back. All right, We're back here, Sweeze. What's
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: up man? Here? You you came in right during my
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: quick intermission, my break? What's up man? Sweeze. By the way,
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he is, but he may or
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: may not be coming on Loser Cast with us tomorrow night.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: I believe that's you, right. I don't know. Layton is
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: in charge of that, so I don't know what he's doing,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: but check out loser Cast tomorrow and Sweeze might be
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: on with the All right, hockey, we have two games
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: because Carolina already won their series against Ottawa in a sweep,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: so we only have two games here, Philadelphia at Pittsburgh.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Aus Pittsburgh was able to extend the series and avoid
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: the sweep, and they're getting the money here in this
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: one back in Pittsburgh there it minus won thirty two.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has sixty four percent of the tickets, Pittsburgh has
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the money on them. Though, you know,
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with either market read here. I don't
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: the market read looks strong on both home teams, and
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: I just don't agree. Philadelphia won both games in Pittsburgh
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: already this season, excuse me this series. Excuse me. During
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: the regular season, they won one of the two games
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, I think as well, so including this series,
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia's three and one on the road against Pittsburgh. I
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: don't think it's a huge home advantage for either team
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: in this series because it's so close to each other,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: and the fan bases are everywhere in the state they travel,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: you know whatever, Even though I think Pittsburgh does have
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: a bit of a bigger fan base, I don't like
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in the series. Man, Philadelphia should at some point,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: get this series over with. Philadelphia has the better goalie,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: they have the better off, the better deepfense. Excuse me,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia is the way more physical team, which is
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: why I thought they would win the series. I picked
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: it in my bracket, et cetera. Yeah, I just I
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: don't agree. Pittsburgh won the last game, and I think
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: that might be the last gasp. Even though you might
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: say it'll give them momentum coming back home, I'm not
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: so sure about that. If you look at what happened
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: in this game, they scored an empty net goal, so
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: the final score being four to two a little bit misleading.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: The game is a little bit closer than that. Even
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: though Pittsburgh did have the lead for the whole game,
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: and they were leading by two a bunch but Philadelphia
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: outstated them in a bunch of ways. They had more
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: shots thirty to twenty one. Granted that that was because
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: they were losing the game partially, but when you have
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: that many more shots, I mean, it's not just that,
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Like twenty one shots is not that many. And Philadelphia
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: won the face off battle by a decent amount fifty
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: six percent more than that. Uh. Surprisingly, they got out hit,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: which you don't really expect that to happen in this matchup. Really,
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is just more of a finesse team, so more
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: often than not, Philadelphia is gonna be the more physical team. Yeah,
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: I like Philly in this game. It's not my play,
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: but I think Philly bounces back. I think that was
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. But where I'm gonna go is
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: the other game here, and we're gonna fade the market
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: read in the other game. Maybe I'm biased because I
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: have this particular team winning the conference in my bracket,
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna go with the Vegas Knights minus one
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: fifteen to bounce back from their worst performance of the
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: series against Utah minus one thirteen. You might be able
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: to find out there eighty four percent of tickets are
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: on Vegas, though fifty five percent of the cash on Utah.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if these numbers are actually accurate, man,
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: I don't because the public is so recently biased, Like
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: you really think they're gonna want to lay Vegas is
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: a favorite when they've lost two games in a row,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. Both of these games are on ESPN.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: If you look at this last game, so I mean
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Vegas won the first game. The second game was close,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: even though I think Utah did outstat them a little
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: bit there. But if you look at this third game,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: the game in Utah, and yes, I do realize Vegas
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: is not that good on the road. Utah is decent
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: at home, but they're not like an insurmountable team at home.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: You look at what happened in this game. Utah had
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: twelve shots in the whole game, Vegas had thirty two
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: face offs are even in Vegas out hit Utah by one?
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: How did they lose this game four to two? They
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: were actually losing four to nothing in the game. I
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: just think it's misleading. Man. You never see a team
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: score four goals on twelve shots, dude, it just doesn't happen.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Like it was a very bad performance from Carter Hart
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: in net for Vegas. I'm just hoping it's not getting
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: into his head, man, because Vegas decided he's the guy,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: and the other two games in the series he was fine.
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna consider this to be more of an
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: outlier here. I don't know what the hell that was.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know if maybe Vegas's defense caused some of
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: the issues there which was the case with the Bruins yesterday.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to talk about that shit. Vegas.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: You know, they were able to put up two goals
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: late in the game. Was a little bit too late though,
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: but still, I think this is a very misleading result here. Again,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: four goals on twelve shots is like, you're not You're
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: almost never gonna see something like that. Vegas was the
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: better team in the game, dude, So that's why I'm
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: going with this. It's an extremely misleading result. And I
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: think when a team is down four to nothing like
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: that in a game, it's it's embarrassing. You know, you
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: bounce back. You usually fix things and do much better
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: in the next game. I think that's what's gonna happen here.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: And even yeah, you know, you got to worry about Heart.
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: Heart's mental state a little bit here, you know. And
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: I guess I don't even know about this, but I
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: guess everybody was celebrating Heart doing really bad because I
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: guess there were, like I don't know, sexual misconduct allegations
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: against him, but I haven't looked into it at all.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how much weight there is in
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: that at all. You know, how some people get accused
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: of that and it's not even real. So I have
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: no ida. I don't want to say anything about it
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: because I don't know any of the details, but I
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: know people were mentioning that. I'm gonna ignore that here.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: But I also, you know, utah, I mean, they got
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Vamelka as their goalie. He's fine, but you know, I
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, he's been good in the series
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: for sure, But yeah, I mean, I don't think there's
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: a huge goaltending edge one way or the other here really,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: and Vegas still has a dude. I mean, I think
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: they have a coaching edge with Tortorella, even though he
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: hasn't been with them for very long. He's a very
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: experienced coach, including in the playoffs, and Vegas is still
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: an experienced playoff team. So we're gonna go with it.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: We'll go with Vegas. Uh to somehow get this done
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: in the bounce back spot, all right, NBA. I will
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: have one play in the NBA as well. Uh, let's
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: see NBA. For some reason, they the rotation order is different.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: It's not. The rotation is not chronological. I don't really
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: know why Pistons Magic is last in the rotation order.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: These games are all in NBC or NBC Sports and Peacock,
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna have a play in that game that's
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: messed up in the rotation order, so let's just go
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: to it. We've had a really good gauge on this series.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: We've gone two to zero with our plays in the
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: series of our end. My lean in game one was
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: correct on Orlando plus the points as well. I gave
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: out a play Detroit minus the points in game two,
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: gave out over in Game three, and both of those won.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: We're gonna lay the points with Detroit here in game
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: four minus three. You might be able to fight a
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: two and a half out there. Maybe not, though it
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: looks like it's three to three and a half here.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: The money is agreeing with me on this, sixty four
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eighty percent of the cash on the Pistons.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: I think this is definitely a bounce back spot. I
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: mean again, we're looking at the better team here in
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: a bounce back spot. Down one to two in the series,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: I still think Detroit is gonna find a way to
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: win this series, even though I know the Magic have
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: more experience here. This last game, the Magic won you
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: know game three at home, we got the over correct
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: in this game. This game just got kind of out
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: of control. Dude. The Magic were leading by a lot,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: and they actually blew the entire thing and it looked
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: like Detroit was actually gonna come away with the win
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: after erasing that whole deficit, and then they still lost.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: I just don't know what the Magic you're gonna have
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: left here. And the Magic, the one real outlier in
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: this game was the Magic hit forty five percent of
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: the three pointers. They were plus twelve from three point range,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if that's gonna happen again. That's
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: a bit of an outlier there. Magic may not shoot
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: as well from three point range here, so I see
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: some regression there. Yes, the Magic did win the rebound battle,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: but the Magic typically they're not a team that has
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of size. They don't usually do that much
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: damage in the paint. So the fact that they won
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: the rebound battle it worries me. And the fact that
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: they had more free throw attempts, they had nine more
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: free throw attempts, I consider that to be a little
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: bit more of an outlier, man, because that's just not
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: the way the Magic usually plays. So I see it
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: kind of swinging back in the other direction here. Detroit
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: lost the turnover battle as well, which a lot of
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: times the home team will win the turnover battle. But
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I think that's something Detroit can maybe clean up a
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: little bit. Coming into this one. It was a bad
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: game for Detroit. I think this might be a zig
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: zag with Detroit being the better team here. Detroit actually
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: had a better road record than Orlando's home record as
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: well by a little bit. So Detroit can definitely win
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: this game. They're favored for a reason here. Yeah, I
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: think it's a bounce back with a couple of outliers
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: in there. In the box score in the previous game,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: the number is basically the same as it was in
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: the previous game. It was about two and a half
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: or three. So we'll do it. We'll lay the points
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: with the Pistons to get this one back. Man. And
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: I don't believe they were really an injury issues or
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: anything that really have to be aware of here. Jonathan
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: Isaac is out for Orlando, but that's already been the
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: case I think for this whole thing. So Detroit is
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: my play in the NBA, all right, And then we
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: have Oklahoma City at Phoenix's the next game up, Oklahoma
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: City is a double digit favorite. They're up three to
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: zero in the series, you know, I mean, it's the NBA,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: so a lot of times it's very difficult to predict
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: the three to zero series game four, you know what
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, because it's like it could be Phoenix's last gasp.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: Maybe they come out and they give you a big
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: time effort here, but they could just maybe pack it in,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. It's very, very difficult to
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: figure this out. Sometimes this game will be kind of
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: an over game, and the money is hitting the over
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: in this game. By the way, it's hitting the under
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: in that Piston's Magic game at two fourteen and a half.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: I might not disagree with that. I like the over
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: in the previous game, but it might swing a little
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: bit back in the direction of the under in that game.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: But we played the over in game three Epistans Magic
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: because Game two was such an outlier towards the over
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: towards the under. Excuse me anyway, The over, I think
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: does make sense in thunder Suns, though, sixty eight percent
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: of tickets ninety three percent of the cash on the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: over and the reason is that the Thunder being up
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: three to zero, they're probably not gonna come out with
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: their most intense of efforts, you know what I mean.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: But the problem is, if you want to go over here,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: the total is pretty low at two thirteen and a half.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: The problem is that if this game gets out of
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: hand and the Thunder will winning the game by a lot,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: the Thunder are gonna start slowing the game down, you
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. So that's the worries. So over
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: first half might make some sense, but then again, you know,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: you might get more intense defense early on then later
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: in the game. I don't know. That's why these these
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: games are so difficult to predict. The game four. I'll
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: probably lean over in this game more so than the side,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: but I don't like the game at all. I could
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: see Phoenix showing up and maybe covering. Is the double
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: digit dog here with the low total. I could see
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City covering as well. I mean, obviously they're the
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: better team, they're the deeper team, they're the best team
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: in the NBA. We know all this. They still are
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: without Jalen Williams. I don't know how long he's gonna
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: be out. He's considered weak to week. I mean, there's
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: no reason to rush him back. I mean, obviously they're
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: gonna win this series. I think Oklahoma City they probably
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: want to just get it done, win the series. Williams
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: will rest until the next series. They'll probably bring him
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: back at some point during that series, I would imagine,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: so they'll probably have him back when it matters more.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good feel for the side here.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Thunder at minus
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: ten and a half, it looks like it's headed towards
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: eleven seventy seven percent of tickets eighty seven percent of
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Thunder. Yeah, I don't know, man,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good read on the side there.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: I might slightly lean against that and towards the Suns
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: plus the points, you know, just that last gas type
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: of effort there down three desperation mode where you're getting
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: a ton of points. But it is possible that they're
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: already in dream crusher mode, you know what I mean,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: because they know they're not gonna win the series. So
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: that's that, and then the last game Minnesota and the
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: Nuggets is there's a lot of ridiculous stuff going on
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: in this in this series. Man. First of all, I
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: don't know how we lost our play on the Nuggets.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: In the last game, they were in a huge bounce
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: back spot. The te Wulls lost Stevencenzo to a torn
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: achilles and they lost Anthony Edwards to some injury in
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: that game too, and the Nuggets still blew the game
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: after that in the fourth quarter. I don't know what
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: to tell you about that. But now the Nuggets, because
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: of all the injuries, especially the Anthony Edwards injury, the
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: Nuggets have gone from being a seven and a half
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: point favorite at home in Game two to now being
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: down three to one in the series coming back home,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: and they're now an eleven and a half point favorite.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: And that it is because of the Anthony Edwards injury.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: Because you might be thinking, how are they favored by
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: that much? Well, that's why. And you know I talk
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: about the injured player spot. The t Wolves are in
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: that where they lost their star player. The line is
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: gonna usually over adjust a little bit to that star
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: player being out. A lot of times the team will
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: put in a huge effort because they know they have
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: to when he's out. So those things are indicating towards
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: the t Wolves. However, the Nuggets are not gonna overlook
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: the t Wolves at this point though, And that's the
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: problem the Nuggets. I mean, they're on the verge of elimination,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: so obviously they have to show up here. The question
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: is that they're gonna cover. The Nuggets can definitely win
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: this game without covering. Do I think they're gonna win
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: this game? Yes, I do. Fifty seven percent of tickets,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash on the Nuggets. Now, the
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: t Wolves, they do still have the better defense, but
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: they're they're shorthanded. Man, No devincen Zone, no Anthony Edwards here. Yeah,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: I mean the Nuggets might still win this series given
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: how shorthanded the Tea Wolves are. The t Wolves are
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: only twenty three and eighteen on the road. Nuggets not
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: great at home, but twenty eight to thirteen is still
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: not that Twenty eight and thirteen is still not that bad.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: Edwards has a bone bruise and hyper extended knee multiple weeks.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: That is that is brutal, dude, that is absolutely brutal.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: If you're the Spurs right now, you probably want to
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: play Minnesota, you know what I mean? The Spurs I
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: thought the Spurs would have a difficult time against either
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: of these teams because they're both really playoff experience. But
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: if the Spurs get a very shorthanded Minnesota team in
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: the next series, yeah, you know, the Spurs might very
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: well win that series. Uh. They probably want that at
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: this point instead of having to go up against a
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: healthier Jokic led Denver team. Yeah, this game is really
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: hard to predict. I think you're not really getting any
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: value laying the points with the Nuggets. I do think
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: they're gonna win fifty percent of tickets eighty percent of
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Nuggets. The money is slightly indicating
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: towards the over. The totals at two twenty two. You know,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I disagree with the over here, because
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: I think the line might overreact a little bit, you know,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: to Edwards being down and whatever, because he is the
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: tewol's best scorer, so that might be an overreaction as well.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: And again, a guy like that plays good deep mens too,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So you're losing the deep
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: betsive aspect of it too. So yeah, I mean it
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: over might make sense here. The public looks like it's
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under, seventy three percent of the
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: tickets on the under and seventy two percent of the
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: cash on the under, So I wouldn't really disagree with
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: going over in this one. If you want to play
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets in some capacity, I would say, you know,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I would say. Nuggets over
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: their team total actually might be the best way to
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: go in this game, because, again, but the tee Wells shorthanded,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: their deep mens might lapse a little bit more money
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: is indicating on the over here. I kind of like
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets to win the game, So Nuggets over their
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: team total probably makes a lot more sense than laying
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: the points with the Nuggets. So that is actually probably
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: how I would play that game. Not really a team
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: totals guy. But that's it, man, those are my thoughts
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: on it, Dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: All right? The play is one more time today we
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: have one in each sport. We're gonna go with the under.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: In Cubs San Diego under eight is what I found
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: there or seven and a half. I found the eight
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: at the you know minus one ten price though at
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: I forget which book that was. I think it was
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: the Roman Emperor book, I think is where that was.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: I forget NHL. I'm really worried about this one. We're
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Vegas and what I think is a
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot on the money line and fade the
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: market read in that one, and Vegas is used to
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: the elevation now after playing once there in Utah. But
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: I just they got to bounce back for such a
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: bad performance, and then we're gonna go with the other
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: zigzag spot. In NBA, we have Detroit Pistons minus the points.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you'll find a two, and I
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: saw some two and a half's out there that were
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: juiced at like minus one fifteen. If you want to
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: do it that way, I'm not gonna knock you for it.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: Minus three is a little bit different when you get
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: into those two, three, four numbers in the NBA gets
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit dicey. If it's gonna be a close game,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: you know, every half point doesn't matter a bit. But yeah,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with the three or laying you know, a
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: little bit of juice for the two and a half.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: I think it's okay. But we'll do that Detroit, and
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it, man, Learn a tone on Twitter.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe to me there. That helps me out.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: I'll learn a tone on Instagram the short form content there, like,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here. We got to boost it. Man,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: we've lost a couple of subscribers over the last couple
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: of weeks. Pussies. I don't know what's up with those guys. Yeah,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: tell everybody about it. Spread the word. We're on audio
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: as well. That helps out as well. If you listen
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: on audio Apple, Spotify, give me good reviews over there.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: Covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube, I'm
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: trying to get some some more yuke content going. Man,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: I know, like, I don't know. I feel like I
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: don't know. I like doing it, but maybe I should
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: just start doing those live jams, you know what I mean.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: Because it's whatever. It's just more of a hangout. I
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about recording it and whatever. I mean,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: it will be recorded because it's live, but you know
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: what I mean, I don't have to worry about like
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: getting it completely right and whatever. Maybe I'll start doing that.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: Start doing it for the patreons patreon dot com, slash
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: learn to Tone you can check that out and Loser
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: casts away back tomorrow night. I believe with our guy
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: who's in the chat here, Sweeze, I believe is going
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: to be on the show tomorrow. Correct me if I'm
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: wrong about that. At least it's a possibility. So I
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: have my loser picked out, I think for tomorrow, and
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna pick mine. I'm pretty sure, so we're going
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: with it. It'll lead to some good discussion. You can
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: check that out. It's the It's the latest comedy craze Man.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: And then I'm also on the g spot New York
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: Giants podcast. Despite being a Boston fan, I'm not a
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: huge Patriot fan. I'm more lukewarm with the Patriots right now.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: I don't like the variable stuff that's going on, so
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: you know, it's always something with the Patriots. I don't
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: like craft either, so but I rooted for the Giants
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: against the Patriots and the Super Bowls. I love Jackson Dart.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: So I'm on that show with Ben Weir and sometimes
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: Adam Nutter, who does not ever join Loser cast though
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. You can check all that stuff out.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: I will have a couple of extra shows here on
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: this channel. This week, we're gonna do a Kentucky Derby special.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: After I really dive into it, they released the pole positions.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: I'm a little bit worried because I think Renegade is
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: number one, so he's riding the rail if I'm not mistaken.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: Did I see that right? And maybe I didn't see
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: that right, but those positions came out on Saturday, and
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: I was like, oh, yeah, that's not good because Renegade
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: is definitely one of the favorites to win that thing.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: And I don't think riding the rail is really the
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: best position to be in because you're gonna be in traffic. Yeah,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, we'll see. And then yeah, because
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: all the horses are trying to get to the inside,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, because it's a shorter part
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: of the track, So I don't know. I got to
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: do the analysis on it. I'll give you guys my
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: thoughts on the Kentucky Derby. Not really an official play,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: but my stuff was was a winner. I won, you know,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: the amount of like one winning bet is basically what
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: I won on the Kentucky Derby last year. So I'm
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: gonna have a special where I talk about that and
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: then I'm gonna do an NFL season win totals the
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: draft is over. I might have to wait, you know,
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: for some trades to trickle in and whatever. I don't
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: know if ESPN is gonna bring their game back. They
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: had an NFL season win totals game. They always have it,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: and I did pretty well in that last year. Look,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: I showed you I was picking those as I was
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: going in my NFL Win Total show last year. So
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: maybe I'll wait until that game is out. But subscribe
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: to the channel here and you'll get notified when I
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: go live, because sometimes it'll be a little bit of
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: a random time when I do that. So but yes,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: be on the lookout for that. I'll be back tomorrow morning,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: of course, at the Tuesday Morning show, which will be
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: long longer than this one, unfortunately, because baseball a lot
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: of baseball, and we're gonna be jumping into WNBA soon
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: as well. When that starts, maybe it's gonna be chaos
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: because I think the WNBA added like four new teams
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: or something like that, and I have no idea anything
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: about these teams. I just go based on situations. But
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: we won money with the WNBA last year, so I'm
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: gonna keep doing it. That's gonna do it. Peace, everybody,