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Jerome Powell Fed Meeting vs Crypto · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:08
All right, so we're in the FOMC livestream today. First of all,
0:11
welcome into the live stream. We'll be breaking down Chair Palell's comments and also
0:15
get into a little bit of an outline of where the market is going.
0:17
A lot of things happening today, so we'll break it all down for you.
0:21
My name is Paulbara. Welcome back in the tech path. Of course,
0:24
everybody. By now, if you're watching, the markets have probably concluded
0:28
that this has happened, and of course that is CPI inflation rate fell to
0:31
three point three. This is below expectations of three four, which was still
0:36
a considerate win before it's come in a little softer. Three point three is
0:40
a pretty big deal. Obviously, we sell the markets pretty much to about
0:44
face this morning. Core CPI fail to three four, below expectations of three
0:49
to five. This makes the thirty eighth consecutive month with inflation above three.
0:53
Even though that is the case, Chair Palell, I think we'll probably look
0:57
at this as a bit of an achievement by the Fed. Is that they've
1:00
constrained enough in the market. That's the real question. The announcement today also
1:06
came in that they are pausing the rates and continuing to hold on the pause
1:11
so it's higher for longer. But I'm anticipating some very interesting moves, so
1:15
stick around for that. I'll give you my predictions on what he's probably going
1:19
to say. We will be airing it live today on a receme, so
1:23
stick around for that. Here is Ted Talk's macro stage, a set for
1:27
j Palace to talk easing, and I think that this is the way it's
1:32
going to fall out is there's two options here. Obviously, I don't think
1:36
that you have to kind of throw the rate cut out of the window.
1:38
Obviously, because he's going to pause. You have to throw the rate hike
1:42
out of the window. The twoth scenarios that could play into this are no
1:48
discussion of rate cuts at all that could be a little bit bearish, or
1:53
the illusion of the potential rate cut in twenty twenty four that I think would
1:59
trigger the first real verification that we're going to see a rake cut this year
2:04
and if that does happen, a lot of analysts on Wall Street are have
2:07
been looking to that. There is a clip here because it does break it
2:10
down. This is Jim Kramer and crew kind of looking at the situation as
2:15
a whole Take a look, Jim Man the internals on this, whether it's
2:19
gas prices, core goods, insurance, oh my insurance finally broke. The
2:23
same was to piece out last night, saying that prop cash broke and auto
2:28
breaks and those are things that we all have to pay. But there you
2:30
know, you drive your car to work and gasoleans is front and center,
2:35
and property casual but also auto. Now, I thought the most interesting one
2:38
was on page seventeen, all items less shelter minus point two. There you
2:43
go, So it's shelter sticky and everything else is coming down. Uh,
2:46
this is one where I mean, David, I got to tell you,
2:49
if you're the Fed, if you're Jay press conference, Hey guys, I'll
2:53
talk to you later. Right, that's good to see it. Do you
2:58
just say victory and yeah, it's good to see it. Chief the journal
3:01
did say yesterday they're essentially quote taking the summer off. Yes, we're back
3:06
to seventy percent odds on September. I think some fifty basis points priced in
3:10
for the year. Well, I still think you once more than just one.
3:14
But boy, what what when with him this time? I mean,
3:16
you've got these creat great things that went down eggs, turkey, fish,
3:22
bacon, ham, cheese, veggies, potatoes, canned fruit and veggiet that's
3:27
fruit cup, David, you know the del Monte with the big syrup that
3:30
you had. You've even got some fruit in it. Fruit, a little
3:32
bit of fruit. What else is there in life? There's gasoline, egg
3:36
I mean, this is it. So you don't go out. If you
3:38
go out, it's so expensive, right, that's good listen, David,
3:43
this is what you eat when you're baking. Are still unhappy about it all,
3:46
Vita in general, because prices obviously have risen so much in the last
3:51
four or five years and they can't seem to get past it. But to
3:53
your point, that is a very positive signal. Right, although I mean
3:59
we're just coming off from and that job's number that was, that's say,
4:01
you need the summer off to see what shakes out, all right, So
4:06
there's a lot of things happening. Of course, we've talked about this before,
4:11
so many macro pressure points that really dictate how the markets kind of resolved.
4:15
Yes, macro is still one of the guiding forces that drives most of
4:19
the liquidity in the market because it does affect what's happening with Bitcoin and Ethereum,
4:24
which are the two market leaders. Bitcoin surges above sixty nine k after
4:28
are better than expected USCPI. A couple points within this article that are interesting.
4:32
Bitcoin I already knows CPI and FED won't be a major bearish catalyst.
4:35
It's highly intelligent global macro asset. You almost kind of can do that is
4:42
look at Bitcoin and the way it reacts. There's enough people watching this market
4:45
that it does happen, and it gives us kind of this indicator on where
4:49
it's going. I'll flip over to the chart real quick. This is on
4:53
the five minute right now, and you can kind of see a little bit
4:55
of a down off at early at sixty nine readjusted back down here to around
5:00
sixty nine two, and we're floating around sixty nine four right now. So
5:03
we'll see how it goes through Chair Palell's actual livestream which will be airing here
5:09
in about two thirty for you guys. A couple of the points I want
5:13
to get to here, and one of course is the trueflation index. This
5:17
one is always interesting to watch because it is usually much lower than that of
5:23
what we see with the CPI core and you can kind of see this is
5:26
the one year tracking from really it's high back here September twenty eight or September
5:30
eighteenth, twenty twenty three at three point three one, considerably down to where
5:34
we are right now, even though it is not as low as what it
5:38
was in February, which had clipped into two percent. We almost went into
5:42
that range of under two percent truflation. All of that looking pretty good on
5:46
the one year, and if you look at the six month, it's actually
5:49
a little bit sideways. So this is some of the data that chair pal
5:53
is probably going to be looking at, is how does this fare over the
5:58
subset of data that they've looked at over the last ninety days to maybe out
6:02
as far as one hundred and twenty That I think is going to be the
6:05
question mark for them to make a decision on how they're going to move.
6:10
Make sure and drop some questions in over on the side that we'll try to
6:13
get to some questions after the live stream. And if you have not liked
6:17
this video, do that right now, just hit the like button. If
6:20
you're not a subscriber, what are you doing? Man? You should be
6:23
a sub subscriber for this show. And of course hit that little bell.
6:27
You'll get notified of these live streams in the future if you're not in if
6:30
you just pick this up on a notification or maybe just browsing YouTube. A
6:34
couple other things I want to hit on is another clip. This goes into
6:38
a little bit about Anthony Scaramucci talking about trueflation versus inflation. Take a look,
6:45
will inflation be near two percent? And I'm going to tell you something
6:48
It already is, And I would ask your viewers and listeners to please go
6:53
to trueflation dot com truflation dot com and with that is a decentralized aggregator of
7:02
pricing data from around the United States and you'll see that that number is at
7:06
about two point three percent. So well, why is the government reporting a
7:11
different number. Well, there's an expression that there are lies, Arran,
7:15
and there are damn lies, and there are statistics. So lies, damn
7:19
lies and statistics. The government can make these statistics look any way they want,
7:24
and they change the inputs. So we don't think it's accurately reflecting the
7:30
drop. It's a lagging indicator those CPI numbers are using and we think there's
7:34
a larger drop than a result of which I think you're going to get the
7:39
rate cuts. You get the rate cuts, you're going to get a tear
7:42
in bitcoin, you're going to get a tear in risk assets. And I
7:47
don't even think there's that over prices. A lot of good things happening in
7:49
the economy, and the earnings of generally been good. Earnings have been okay,
7:56
not necessarily if you go into small caps, that's a different story.
8:00
Agree with Anthony though right now, is that the inflation numbers that are reported
8:05
versus what we see in real markets have always been a question mark. This
8:09
is, though, something that was interesting to me, and it always makes
8:13
me think something's up because you have to imagine that people like Senator Warren,
8:18
they kind of have the skinny on what's happening right in DC. Right So,
8:22
here was Bloomberg TV talking about Senator Warren. We reported this yesterday,
8:28
is that they had actually done a letter to Chair Powell to that it was
8:33
time it's time to cut rates. Obviously he didn't listen because he pause rates
8:37
again. But the fact that we see democrats now, we see democrats,
8:41
now, we see democrats, now, we see democrats now. This is
8:45
interesting to me because as I said, this always means something in Capitol Hill.
8:50
These guys are very strategic of how they move. I know people might
8:52
think they're not very smart, but when it comes to politics, they understand
8:56
how to work that they may not know about running running bills and law,
9:00
but they understand how to run politics and how to run politics, and how
9:03
to run politics and how to run politics and how to run politics. Snelker
9:07
and Mike Alred, they're talking a little bit about the political landscape. And
9:11
because I think this has a big factor, this is going to actually help
9:15
Biden. But take a look Biden, Like, I don't know if he's
9:18
going to be fast enough to pick this up or whether he's going to be
9:22
willing to defend Elizabeth Warren and her goons, because if he isn't, then
9:26
he's going to lose the bitcoin vote. And I think there's a pretty good
9:30
chance that he doesn't win the election because there are actually far more motivated people
9:35
who own bitcoin and crypto now than there are this like normal people who are
9:39
like who actually care about this election. From my perspective, I think people
9:43
are pretty fed up with all of the major candidates for president this year.
9:48
Like I know, if Trump didn't take a view on bitcoin, I wouldn't
9:50
even consider voting for him. Like he said to put lysol into your body
9:54
to fight COVID, right, Like I could go go on there like hundreds
9:58
of examples of very odd things that Trump's done historically. So I don't want
10:03
to like gloss over that, Like I don't think he's necessarily like a completely
10:07
stable, thoughtful person in every respect, But as long as he has good
10:11
policy advisors that make intelligent policy that will actually make bitcoin better and make America
10:18
more competitive, et cetera, then like I'm going to go that direction,
10:22
even if I otherwise find it distasteful. I think it's sort of like human
10:26
nature, right, if you're around smart people that have good talking points,
10:31
you're going to sort of adopt some of those talking points as your own.
10:33
And Trump's not stupid. He knows appealing to this group is probably a smart
10:37
strategy, and you know, I applot it, all right. So a
10:41
couple of points there, back to things that we've talked about here on the
10:45
show quite a bit, is that the Democrat, I should say, the
10:48
democratic scenario that will play out from the dem side, this is really up
10:52
to the administration I think because now it's queuing up, I think in a
10:56
good position for Joe Biden. And here's why you look at softening CPI.
11:03
The likelihood is you could still possibly see a September rate cut, which would
11:07
be enough time to say that you, meaning the administration, have conquered one
11:13
of the most difficult times in America in terms of the economic conditions, and
11:18
that if you just give them a little bit more time, they can run
11:22
the table on where the markets might go. So there is that still playing
11:26
into this. So I think Mike was right, you know, Mike al
11:28
right in his conversation there with Scott Melker, is that it still boils down
11:33
to who is the pro crypto candidate. Right now, Trump pretty much leads
11:37
the candidate range, even though I've noticed Biden's numbers starting to come up.
11:41
We track this. If we have time, I'll show that to you.
11:45
We are going to be going over to chair Pal's live talk with the reporters
11:50
here in a minute. Make sure to drop some questions in over a site
11:54
another article right here, Bitcoin's bottom is it in? Many people are asking
11:56
is this going to be our last little tap of under that seventy K mark?
12:01
That we just don't see again, this is the real question. A
12:05
lot of people are looking at a couple of things, and I'll go to
12:09
the charts here in a second, but right here, led by macroeconomic fears,
12:13
Bitcoin's price action now indicators suggests the worst is gone for bitcoin and other
12:16
cryptocurrencies if CPI interest in data comes in as expected, which it came in
12:22
softer, so now everybody's kind of pretty much saying risk off, which is
12:26
pretty could be very good for the markets. The question is is does this
12:33
stretch into twenty twenty five or do we see this kind of become a twenty
12:37
twenty four ending of a bull run. All of this played into the political
12:41
landscape along with what's happening here within the macro economy. I think is still
12:48
a big deal. Coinbase kind of jumps on something right here, which I
12:52
think is interesting. American's largest companies now planning to do on mainly get in
13:01
a lot more so thirty nine percent year on year increase of on chain initiatives
13:05
announced by the Fortune one hundred. This is a pretty big deal. When
13:09
you look at Fortune one hundred level companies and you think about the size and
13:13
what they're trying to do, and this will include almost most of the financial
13:18
groups, a lot of the automakers, a lot of companies in the food
13:22
sectors, and then you get into to a certain extent, the entertainment side,
13:24
which kind of control that Fortune, financial services, et cetera, entertainment,
13:30
consumpt and consumables. But within the report, there was a lot of
13:33
different points they hit on. Right here, this is F five hundred.
13:37
This is the Fortune five hundred Executive Report. An average twenty twenty four budget
13:41
of nine point five million for on chain projects. Not that much really when
13:46
you think about it, but most executives say their companies will maintain or increase
13:50
their budget for crypto and unchanged projects over the next two years. I think
13:54
that's going to accelerate. I think that's actually going to go up quite a
13:58
bit. And the reason I say that is because of the kind of things
14:01
that we're going to see in terms of announcements that are coming our way,
14:07
other things that they hit on right here. US continues to lose developers shares
14:11
down fourteen points in the past five twenty six percent of crypto davs now are
14:16
US base today. That's a lot lower, but could we regain that in
14:20
terms of innovation, I think that's the bigger factor. A. I think
14:24
we'll play a part of that role, just intertracting back possibly some of the
14:28
more talented people in companies, and that I think also starts to separate and
14:33
get some of these fortune five hundreds, you know, back into it for
14:37
sure? What else did we have in there? Looks like we're getting ready
14:39
to go to the live stream. We're checking in on share pal right now.
14:43
He hasn't made that door entrance, his classic door entrance. He'll come
14:48
in, fumble around his papers, shift to the left a little. That's
14:54
basically what people are looking at is what is he going to say to let
15:00
me know what you guys think? And the poll seems to be trending pretty
15:05
high right now. Let's see what the poll is saying. I'm just kind
15:07
of curious when will Pal cut rates by October? Woo, sixty six percent
15:13
of you here he comes. All right, let's cut to the live.
15:18
Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate
15:26
goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.
15:31
Our economy has made considerable progress towards both goals over the past two years.
15:37
The labor market has come into better balance with continued strong job gains and a
15:41
low unemployment rate. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of seven percent to
15:46
two point seven percent, but is still too high. We are strongly committed
15:52
to returning inflation to our two percent goal in support of a strong economy that
15:56
benefits everyone. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged
16:03
and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. We are maintaining our restrictive stance
16:10
of monetary policy in order to keep demand in line with supply and reduce inflationary
16:15
pressures. I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
16:22
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.
16:29
Although GDP growth moderated from three point four percent in the fourth quarter of
16:33
last year to one point three percent in the first quarter, private domestic final
16:37
purchases, which excludes inventory investment, government spending, and net exports and usually
16:44
sends a clearer signal on underlying demand, grew at two point eight percent in
16:48
the first quarter nearly as strong as the second half of twenty twenty three.
16:53
Growth of consumer spending has slowed from last year's robust pace but remains solid,
17:00
and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last year.
17:06
Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand and the strong performance of the US
17:11
economy over the past year. In our summary of economic projections, Committee participants
17:17
generally expect GDP growth to slow from last year's pace, with a median projection
17:22
of two point one percent this year and two point zero percent over the next
17:26
two years. In the labor market, supply and demand conditions have come into
17:30
better balance. Payroll job gains averaged two hundred and eighteen thousand jobs per month
17:36
in April and May, a pace that is still strong but a bit below
17:40
that scene in the first quarter. The unemployment rate ticked up but remains low
17:45
at four percent. Strong job creation over the past couple of years has been
17:49
accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, reflecting increases in participation among
17:56
individuals aged twenty five to fifty four years and continued strong pace of immigration.
18:03
Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs to workers
18:07
gap has narrowed. Overall, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in
18:11
the labor market have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the
18:15
pandemic, relatively tight but not overheated. FMC participants expect labor markets strength to
18:22
continue. The median unemployment rate projection in the SEP is four point zero percent
18:29
at the end of this year and four point two percent at the end of
18:32
next year. Inflation is eased notably over the past two years, but remains
18:37
above our longer run goal of two percent. Total PCE prices rose two point
18:41
seven percent over the twelve months ending in April. Excluding the volatile food and
18:45
energy categories. Core PCE prices rose two point eight percent. The Consumer Price
18:52
Index, which came out this morning and tends to run higher than the PCE.
18:56
PCE Price Index rose three point three three percent over the twelve months ending
19:00
in May, and the core CPI rows three point four percent. Inflation data
19:07
received earlier this year were higher than expected, though more recent monthly readings have
19:11
eased somewhat. Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected
19:17
in a broad range of surveys of households and businesses and forecasters, as well
19:22
as measures from financial markets. The median projection in the SEP for total PCEE
19:26
inflation is two point six percent this year, two point three percent next year,
19:32
and two point zero percent in twenty twenty six. My colleagues and I
19:37
are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power,
19:42
especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food,
19:48
housing, and transportation. Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate
19:53
to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. In support of
19:59
these goals, the commit He decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range
20:02
for the federal funds rate at five and a quarter to five and a half
20:04
percent, and to continue reducing our securities holdings. As labor market titaness has
20:10
eased and inflation has declined over the past year, the risks to achieving our
20:15
employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain,
20:21
however, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks We've stated that we
20:26
do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the Federal
20:30
Funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward two
20:34
percent. So far this year, the data have not given us that greater
20:40
confidence. The most recent inflation readings have been more favorable in earlier in the
20:44
year, however, and there has been modest further progress toward our inflation objective.
20:49
We'll need to see more good data to bolster our confidence that inflation is
20:53
moving sustainably toward two percent. We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or
21:00
too much could result in a reversal of the progress that we've seen on inflation.
21:04
At the same time, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could
21:08
unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering any adjustments to the target range
21:15
for the Federal Funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the
21:19
evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. In our SCP for FOMC,
21:26
participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the Federal Funds rate
21:32
based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward.
21:37
If the economy of all as expected, the median participant projects that the appropriate
21:41
level of the federal funds rate will be five point one percent at the end
21:45
of this year, four point one percent at the end of twenty twenty five,
21:48
and three point one percent at the end of twenty twenty six. But
21:52
these projections are not a committee plan or any kind of a decision. As
21:56
the Economy of All's assessments of the appropriate posleayal, the policy path will adjust
22:02
in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the
22:07
economy remains solid and inflation persists were prepared to maintain the current target range for
22:11
the federal funds rate as long as appropriate. If the labor market were to
22:15
weaken unexpectedly or if inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, were prepared
22:19
to respond. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that
22:25
we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate. Will continue to make
22:29
our decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of the data and its implications
22:33
for the outlook and the balance of risks. The FED has been assigned two
22:38
goals for monetary policy, maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to
22:44
bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keeping longer term inflation
22:48
expectations well anchored. Restoring price stability is essential to achieving maximum employment and stable
22:56
prices over the long run. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to
23:00
all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses
23:06
across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission.
23:10
We get the FED. We'll do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment
23:14
and price stability goals. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
23:18
All right, So looks like he is rolling a little bit neutral right
23:25
now. NBC. Just wondering if you could walk me through the Committee's average
23:30
inflation forecast core PCE is now forecast to be two point eight percent by the
23:37
year end. It's already two point seventy five, and this is where they
23:41
past number. There were several forecasts on the street that it would be two
23:45
six at the end of this month. Yeah, this is where they can
23:47
tell you get too loose or too tight. No further progress in inflation and
23:52
in fact, that it's going to get worse. And if you have this
23:56
wrong, doesn't it mean that you sort of you could have on the outlook
24:00
for rates there. Yeah, So what's going on there is that we had
24:06
very low readings in the second half of last year June through December really,
24:11
and we're now lapping those. So as you go through the twelve month window,
24:15
a very low reading drops out and a new reading comes in. The
24:17
new reading gets added to the twelve month window. So it's just a slight
24:22
element of conservativism that we're assuming a certain level of you know, incoming monthly
24:30
PCE and core PCE numbers. We're assuming, you know, good but not
24:34
great numbers. And if you put that on top of where we are now,
24:37
you get a very slight increase in the twelve month in the twelve month
24:42
you know reading. Now, do we have high confidence that that's right.
24:45
No, it's just a kind of conservative way for forecasting things. If we
24:49
were to get more readings like today's reading, then of course that wouldn't be
24:52
the case. So it's just a forecasting device, I think. I think
24:56
let me say that we welcome today's reading and and hope for more like that.
25:00
But if it comes in, just to follow up, it comes in
25:03
the way you forecast it, it would seem strange for you to be cutting
25:07
rates at all in context of a rising core PCE. Thank you, Yeah,
25:11
No, I mean I think we've we've what we said is that we
25:15
don't think it'll be appropriate to reduce rates and begin to loosen policy until we
25:19
have more confidence that inflation is moving back down to two percent on a on
25:23
a sustainable basis, and that's the that's the test we've applied. I don't
25:29
know that I think if we I don't know that this rules that in or
25:32
out. I mean, really it's it's a forecast, a fairly conservative forecast
25:34
month by month that would lead to slightly higher, uh you know, twelve
25:41
months rate rates by the end of the year. If we get you know,
25:44
good better ratings in that, then you will see that come down or
25:47
remain the same. If you're at two point six two point seven, you
25:51
know, that's that's a really good place to be. That would be fantastic
25:57
two point six or seven, that definitely would be a reverse pell. If
26:00
I look at the rate projections, I see fifteen the nineteen that are anticipating
26:07
either one or two cut this two cuts this year fairly evenly split between the
26:11
two, and so I wonder if you could explain a little bit more to
26:15
say the differences they say, would two or three more inflation readings like the
26:21
one that we saw this morning make a September interest right cut possible? Here?
26:27
It is? Wait, boy, So as far as the NCP part
26:32
of that is concerned, as you know, I talked to I talk to
26:34
all of the other participants on the FMC every cycle, and we talk about
26:38
their summer of economic projections and the do their dot plot and everything, and
26:44
what you what I hear and see is that people are looking at, you
26:48
know, a range of plausible outcomes, and in many cases they're they're they're
26:52
thinking, I don't really you know, I can't really distinguish between two of
26:55
these. They're so close. For me, these are very close calls.
26:56
But we ask them to write down the most likely one, so they do.
27:00
And I think you've as you've said, there's fifteen of the nineteen are
27:04
kind of clustered around one or two. So I think I would look at
27:10
all I look at all of them as plausible, but i'd look at so
27:14
I think that does tell you kind of what the committee thinks. But what
27:17
everyone agrees on is it's going to be data dependent on No one brings to
27:21
this or takes away from it. This is on the committee a really strong
27:25
commitment to a particular rate path. It's actually just their forecast and there it's
27:30
a combination of their forecast and their own reaction function. But again, everyone
27:36
would say that this is very data dependent, and I don't hold it with
27:38
high confidence. And I think if you're looking for and don't really think that
27:44
they're not trying to send a strong signal that this is what I think is
27:47
the right thing. It's just what they think at a given moment in time,
27:49
subject to data. In terms of you know, future meetings, we
27:53
haven't. You know, we don't try to. We don't make decisions about
27:57
future meetings until we get there. I think in terms of what we need
28:00
to see, I mentioned it earlier. We want to we want to gain
28:04
further confidence. Certainly more good inflation readings will help with that. I'm not
28:10
going to be specific about how many, because you know, really it's going
28:12
to be not just the inflation rating readings. It's going to be the totality
28:15
of the data. What's happening in the labor market, what's happening with the
28:18
balance of risks, what's happening with the forecast, what's happening with growth.
28:22
You look at all of that and you ask, are we confident? Have
28:26
we reached an appropriate level of confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably to two
28:30
percent? Or alternatively, do we see really unexpected signs of weakness in the
28:34
labor market that would call for a response, which is which is another thing
28:37
that could could happen, But again, we don't see that, and we
28:41
do see today's We see today's reports as progress and as you know, building
28:48
confidence, but we don't see ourselves as having the confidence that would warrant,
28:53
you know, that would warrant beginning to loosen policy at this time. And
28:57
if I could quickly follow, did you or any of your colleagues change your
29:03
interest rate projections after eight thirty or whenever you got the inflation numbers today?
29:10
So this happens too often, but it does happen. It just as you
29:14
know, data came. I think it happened a couple of meetings ago,
29:17
a few meetings ago. So when that happens when there's an important data print
29:21
during the meeting first day or second day. What we do is we make
29:26
sure people remember that they have the ability to update. We tell them how
29:29
to do that, and some people do, some people don't, most most
29:33
people don't. But I'm not going to get into the specifics. But you
29:37
have the ability to do that so that you know what's in the SEP actually
29:40
does reflect the data that we got today to the extent you can, you
29:44
know, reflect it in one day. I think we'll you know, you
29:47
will see PPI tomorrow. Will know more about the PCEE reading as the month
29:52
goes on, but the initial CPI reading and it's you know, kind of
29:55
first level translation to PCEE. We did have this morning briefed about it,
30:00
and people were able to consider whether they should make changes, and as I
30:04
said, you know, some people generally do, but most people generally don't.
30:11
Hi ter Pal Janell Marte from Bloomberg. As you noted, the labor
30:18
market is now in many ways back to where it was before the pandemic.
30:22
I wondered if you could comment on how officials are viewing that. So do
30:26
you think that there still needs to be more cooling in the labor market to
30:30
bring infition all the way down to two percent, or is there any sense
30:34
that maybe the labor market is more vulnerable now to higher rates that many of
30:38
those imbalances have eased. Sure, so by so many measures. The labor
30:48
market was kind of overheated two years ago, and we've seen it gradually move
30:52
back into much better balance between supply and demand. So what have we seen?
30:56
All right? So, as you guys can see, he's starting to
31:00
kind of sidestep a lot of these questions. I think this goes back into
31:03
the point we've made for a few shows now, and that is that this
31:07
is most likely going to be one cut this year. Now. Of course,
31:10
yes, jobs and CPI if we if we get a two point CPI
31:15
move, that potentially could come in and still adjust it maybe earlier than Q
31:21
four, but I think Q four is going to be the target window for
31:22
most of this. He's also not necessarily dubvish, but he's not hawkys.
31:27
He's definitely holding the line for we don't want to make a mistake here.
31:30
Even though that first question that one of the reporters asked was are you risking
31:37
going a little bit too long here and losing control and essentially being in a
31:42
position where you push the economy into a recession. That's the problem that I
31:48
think a lot of people are concerned about. We are going to be dropping
31:52
an XRP video, so you guys want to stick around for that. We're
31:56
going to drop it right after this show. We've got a huge announcement on
31:59
XRP, some big stuff happening over there. I want to see the pole
32:02
right before we get out of here. I'm going to see where it landed
32:05
in terms of price on bitcoin. Do we still have it coming in?
32:09
Maybe? Yeah, we'll get to it. But if you guys aren't subscribed,
32:14
make sure and jump in on the Diamond Circle. Let's take a look
32:15
at the pole real quick. Okay, so by October still holding it sixty
32:19
four percent? Interesting? Okay, all right, so that's the September time
32:22
zone. Otherwise you'd be flipping into Q four, which is pretty interesting.
32:28
So that's a lot of votes there. You guys are very bullish. I
32:30
like that about you guys. This is a bullish channel I feel like all
32:34
the time. If you're not part of the Diamond Circle, get in right
32:36
now. We're doing a huge air drop over there. Make sure and visit
32:38
our website. We're doing cool air drops for all of you if you as
32:43
members, and of course if you're not following me on X do that,
32:46
and of course that's just appole baron. We'll catch you next time right here on Techpath