Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / 9-Team Parlay: Fading Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes in Week 4

Transcript

9-Team Parlay: Fading Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes in Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:15
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. I'm Chad Milman from the Action Network.
0:20
Speaker 1: It is Monday morning. This is the Parlay Show from
0:25
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast series. I am joined as always by
0:31
Speaker 1: Paula Duca Action Network analysts, ten years in the major leagues,
0:36
Speaker 1: four time All Star, Jeff Schwartz, Action Network analyst, eight
0:41
Speaker 1: years in the trenches in the NFL Fellas. We came
0:46
Speaker 1: so close to winning our nine team parlay. We were six,
0:53
Speaker 1: we were six and three. I mean, I know, you
0:55
Speaker 1: don't win the party way if you lose one of
0:57
Speaker 1: the games, but I feel like we each lost one game.
1:01
Speaker 1: If we can, just if we can just turn that around. Jeff,
1:03
Speaker 1: you're already laughing, Well, I think because the weirdest game
1:07
Speaker 1: to me that nineteen parlay was that Kentucky win. Like
1:10
Speaker 1: I just I didn't see Kentucky in the history of
1:13
Speaker 1: the football program has never shown the ability to do
1:16
Speaker 1: what they did in Missisippi State on Saturday night. Like
1:19
Speaker 1: I think we were. I think we were generally pretty
1:21
Speaker 1: good with our bets, um, and that's why we're getting there.
1:24
Speaker 1: We're we're we're we're gonna tighten things up a little bit.
1:27
Speaker 1: It's kind of a reset week in the NFL. Things
1:30
Speaker 1: didn't go like we expected, kind of how the NFL goes.
1:32
Speaker 1: And now we we got Week four coming up in
1:34
Speaker 1: the NFL. Week five and culge football. What do you think?
1:38
Speaker 1: I mean? The overreaction factor in the NFL works every year,
1:43
Speaker 1: doesn't it. I mean, I turned my phone on. I'd
1:46
Speaker 1: have to say, Jeff, my pick was the worst with
1:48
Speaker 1: Minnesota because I turned my phone on and Buffalo was
1:50
Speaker 1: up seventeen nothing. I mean it was literally seventeen and man,
1:55
Speaker 1: and it happened in the game. It seemed like so Um,
1:58
Speaker 1: weird things happened in the NFL. This is just the
2:01
Speaker 1: bottom line. Um, some weird things in college football. Um.
2:05
Speaker 1: But that's why we love um playing this game and
2:08
Speaker 1: betting on it. So for people who need a refresher,
2:14
Speaker 1: we are going to quickly review what happened this weekend,
2:18
Speaker 1: and then we are going to look ahead, mostly to
2:21
Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday. The goal is for me and Jeff
2:24
Speaker 1: and Paul to come up with a nine team parlay
2:27
Speaker 1: that we love in which we can win twenty thousand dollars.
2:33
Speaker 1: That's the payoff for the bet that we're gonna put
2:35
Speaker 1: down sixty bet wins dollars. This is the week it
2:40
Speaker 1: could happen. I feel like we're close, and the one
2:42
Speaker 1: thing I will say if we want to get into
2:45
Speaker 1: sort of this past weekend. The first two weekends I
2:49
Speaker 1: felt lost. I like I didn't have data to rely on.
2:53
Speaker 1: I didn't have a feel for these teams. This past
2:56
Speaker 1: weekend I did pretty well generally, um in the place
2:59
Speaker 1: that I had had. I had the Bengals, I lost. UM.
3:02
Speaker 1: I had the Niners. I lost, which was disappointing because
3:05
Speaker 1: that game was playing exactly as I thought it would,
3:07
Speaker 1: where I thought it would be a shootout and I
3:09
Speaker 1: thought that it come down to the end and they'd
3:12
Speaker 1: be trading touchdowns and I thought the Niners would basically
3:15
Speaker 1: have a chance to backdoor cover, which they almost did. Um.
3:19
Speaker 1: But then I won the Saints, which was a miracle.
3:21
Speaker 1: I won the Bears, which felt great, and um, who
3:25
Speaker 1: else did I win? Hold on? I won h Washington,
3:28
Speaker 1: that's right in Washington. But this week felt like and
3:33
Speaker 1: with the Lions winning and with the Bills winning, things
3:36
Speaker 1: were righted like the things that I personally believe in
3:40
Speaker 1: betting against massive seventeen point favorites. I didn't do it
3:44
Speaker 1: because I was scared. Uh, but it worked out betting
3:48
Speaker 1: against the road favorite. That's getting of the money. I
3:52
Speaker 1: didn't do it because I was scared of the Patriots,
3:54
Speaker 1: but the Patriots lost. Those things are coming around. If
3:57
Speaker 1: I can rely on those things, I feel better about life. Jeff,
4:01
Speaker 1: I I my my issue, and I think Paul feels
4:05
Speaker 1: the same way at times, like I just love to
4:07
Speaker 1: put money on stuff because it makes it more exciting
4:10
Speaker 1: to watch the games. And the games I felt really
4:12
Speaker 1: good about. I think I generally, you know, did pretty
4:14
Speaker 1: well minus the the under in the in the Cowboy
4:18
Speaker 1: assuming the Giants, and in the Texans game. I felt
4:22
Speaker 1: good about the Colts. I felt good about the Red Skins.
4:25
Speaker 1: I fe about the under in in Dallas and Seattle.
4:29
Speaker 1: But you know then I put a bunch of units
4:31
Speaker 1: on the Patriots last night and they just lay next.
4:34
Speaker 1: So it's a learning lesson for me to not take
4:36
Speaker 1: an I agree. If you look at this week, only
4:39
Speaker 1: one road favorite covered and that was the Saints this week,
4:41
Speaker 1: and generally speaking, you're right, it doesn't happen that Saints
4:44
Speaker 1: were in the road favorite. Saintsworth Yeah, they working, yes,
4:48
Speaker 1: none of them. Ever, I believe you're right. Yes, they
4:50
Speaker 1: were getting three as many units as I did last
4:52
Speaker 1: night in the Patriot. Yeah, Paully had a probably had
4:54
Speaker 1: a rough night. Paul's daughter got into his phone and
4:58
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, she is like sing and doubling down.
5:02
Speaker 1: Paul explained that this is not a good thing. It's
5:06
Speaker 1: not a good thing. And I'm hoping that Max if
5:09
Speaker 1: he's not listening to this. Um, I'm literally was on
5:13
Speaker 1: why on TV yesterday, you know, covering the horse racing. Um,
5:17
Speaker 1: I played Minnesota, worst bet of history. UM told her,
5:21
Speaker 1: hey play Minnesota in the second half, worst bed history. UM.
5:25
Speaker 1: She did pick up the phone and goes, is this real?
5:27
Speaker 1: And I'm like realizing what Like she thought, Okay, it's
5:31
Speaker 1: just like you're many people that this is your this
5:33
Speaker 1: is your fourteen year old daughter. Okay, we know this chat.
5:36
Speaker 1: I have issues. I just I don't think you just
5:40
Speaker 1: like if it was a seven year old, I think
5:42
Speaker 1: it'd be different than like a fourteen year old. Oh god,
5:47
Speaker 1: I think it's encouraging back. I just know that I
5:50
Speaker 1: text Paul about eleven thirty last night after I saw
5:53
Speaker 1: that he was down ninety units yesterday, and I was like,
5:55
Speaker 1: Paul what are you doing? Because I chase two of times, um,
5:59
Speaker 1: I did not last, thankfully in that Patriots game, I
6:01
Speaker 1: was gonna take the Patriots second half, I didn't um
6:04
Speaker 1: And I was like, Paulie, what are you doing, buddy?
6:07
Speaker 1: And he explained everything to me. I just giggling to
6:08
Speaker 1: myself because he was a thirty seven unit bet. I
6:12
Speaker 1: was like, doesn't sound like paul Yeah, and then a
6:15
Speaker 1: unit bet on the Patriots in in in Detroit over
6:20
Speaker 1: in the first half was the topping. But the greatest
6:24
Speaker 1: part about it is you're right is that she got
6:27
Speaker 1: caught playing the games and then she kept trying to
6:31
Speaker 1: double down and trying to chase to try to get
6:34
Speaker 1: the units back. So if you look like like thirty
6:37
Speaker 1: three and thirty five I think in the NFL and
6:39
Speaker 1: minus ninety units. I was wondering, what's going on this morning?
6:42
Speaker 1: I woke up very early, as I always do when
6:44
Speaker 1: I was on the app, and I noticed that, like
6:47
Speaker 1: with DUCA had a rough day and like, it's funny.
6:57
Speaker 1: The best part is if you look at the app,
6:59
Speaker 1: she laid the Patriot game over and under, Yes, that
7:04
Speaker 1: that was the fairy thing. I thought you I thought
7:05
Speaker 1: you were trying to do a weird middle because like
7:07
Speaker 1: you had over fifty three and a half and then
7:09
Speaker 1: under like fifty four and a half. I thought you
7:12
Speaker 1: knew the game with finishing fifty five. Like I was
7:14
Speaker 1: just like very I was very surprised. I saw that
7:17
Speaker 1: play out. I was like, because you've done like I
7:19
Speaker 1: remember once, I think you did something wrong, sort of
7:21
Speaker 1: like that before Texas, Like do you realize what you did?
7:24
Speaker 1: And you're like, yeah, I screwed up, But like I thought,
7:26
Speaker 1: you're just very specific the fifty four points we're gonna
7:28
Speaker 1: be scored in this game. I was laughing myself. I
7:32
Speaker 1: don't even want to correct you. I just see if
7:33
Speaker 1: you hit it. I'm on the for all the people
7:36
Speaker 1: out there realized when when we put our plays in,
7:38
Speaker 1: they stay in. So I was on the phone last
7:41
Speaker 1: night at midnight with Michael Boff and Scott Miller that
7:45
Speaker 1: people work at the Actual Network. They are literally mine
7:48
Speaker 1: literally yeah, a little in my blood. They they give
7:54
Speaker 1: him my articles, they make them in the magic we
7:57
Speaker 1: we They're just phenomenal. And I'm talking to audience. Scotty's like,
8:01
Speaker 1: what are what happened? And I'm like, oh my god,
8:04
Speaker 1: you don't even want to know. You don't even want
8:06
Speaker 1: to know. So, Yeah, I was on the phone last
8:08
Speaker 1: night after watching Tom Brady really not not look good.
8:15
Speaker 1: That whole game was ugly. Um, I mean for the Patriots,
8:20
Speaker 1: but it also speaks to like why I love home dogs,
8:26
Speaker 1: the Redskins. Why I love home dogs, Like teams show
8:30
Speaker 1: up at home, the percentages are with them, They're always
8:34
Speaker 1: going to be the right side. I want Sports Center
8:35
Speaker 1: yesterday morning, and I was talking about the Redskins. Yeah, exactly. Uh.
8:40
Speaker 1: And I was talking about the Redskins, but at the
8:43
Speaker 1: time of the money was on the Redskins, right, the money.
8:47
Speaker 1: The tickets were on the Packers. But the money, follow
8:52
Speaker 1: the money. It's the same story in every investigation, whether
8:57
Speaker 1: it's Russia, whether it's election tampering, whether it's politics, whether
9:02
Speaker 1: it's finance, whether it's betting, or follow the money, like tonight,
9:11
Speaker 1: are getting a lot of the money and everyone in
9:13
Speaker 1: the public's way on Tampa. Let me ask you something, chat.
9:17
Speaker 1: Can I ask you a quick question? You've been doing
9:19
Speaker 1: this for so long? Do you think so? Because I
9:22
Speaker 1: always thought in the n b A, my theory is
9:26
Speaker 1: that the Thursday night games, they give you four games.
9:29
Speaker 1: They give you like a little treats and they go,
9:31
Speaker 1: you know what, here, you can win these games because
9:33
Speaker 1: we know Friday Night. We want you to come back
9:35
Speaker 1: and play a full slate of Friday night basketball because
9:37
Speaker 1: we know what we're going to get you, do they think?
9:39
Speaker 1: I mean, like Mondays and Thursdays, they give you easier games,
9:43
Speaker 1: follow the money, and then then maybe on Sunday you
9:46
Speaker 1: have to play a little bit tricky or or play
9:48
Speaker 1: a little bit you know what I mean. I mean
9:51
Speaker 1: it feels like the mother. I think they I think
9:54
Speaker 1: they want to win everything. Talking about books every night.
9:58
Speaker 1: They're not going to give you like because they're not
10:00
Speaker 1: to give you a treat. Hey, hey, if there's a
10:02
Speaker 1: little sample. They're not like pushers. You know. It's like
10:06
Speaker 1: I went seven and oh on Thursday last weekend last
10:09
Speaker 1: week with NFL and Cultureball, so I including Friday Night,
10:11
Speaker 1: as I say, Friday Night and conturball too. So I
10:13
Speaker 1: agree with you, Paul. They they sucker me in with
10:16
Speaker 1: a good couple of nights and then I just bawn
10:18
Speaker 1: this weekend. By the way, they're not suckering you in.
10:21
Speaker 1: I know they're not. I know they're not, But maybe
10:23
Speaker 1: it's just because you're concentrating on lesser games and there's
10:26
Speaker 1: like seventy games on the slate on Saturday and you
10:28
Speaker 1: and I are sickos. That's probably the problem. Um, But
10:33
Speaker 1: I do think that say night and Monday night games
10:36
Speaker 1: are just easier because you're you're you're concentrating and you're
10:39
Speaker 1: researching one game, two games. Or the flip side is
10:42
Speaker 1: you just care less, like there are plenty of games.
10:44
Speaker 1: Look on Saturday, I look, I had Mississippi State minus
10:49
Speaker 1: ten in our parlay. Bet them the second that game
10:53
Speaker 1: open on Sunday night, they get destroyed by Kentucky. I
10:56
Speaker 1: bet Florida State minus ten. I think on Saturday warning
11:00
Speaker 1: as a throwaway after I had read all the stuff
11:02
Speaker 1: on Action Network and so many of our guys were
11:05
Speaker 1: coming into Florida State minus ten. Like that was a
11:07
Speaker 1: throwaway to me. I didn't even think about it. And
11:10
Speaker 1: you win that game, so like you just don't know.
11:12
Speaker 1: Here's what we gotta do. We gotta get to our parlays. Okay,
11:16
Speaker 1: we gotta get to this parlay so we can win
11:18
Speaker 1: twenty thousand dollars. Jeff Schwartz, as is our custom europe
11:25
Speaker 1: First let's start in college football. You talk about lines,
11:29
Speaker 1: you bet right away. B y U is plus sixteen
11:33
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, I got him last night at
11:34
Speaker 1: plus seventeen at Washington, and this game the under is
11:38
Speaker 1: not posted yet, and I would be very inclined to
11:40
Speaker 1: take the under eventually when I see it get post.
11:42
Speaker 1: So Washington this year has an interesting year. They did
11:45
Speaker 1: not cover Week one against all Burning, they lost sixteen.
11:48
Speaker 1: They that they believed they might have covered against Utah
11:51
Speaker 1: but they only one one to seven. And this weekend
11:54
Speaker 1: they beat Washington assume in Arizona State UH twenty to
11:58
Speaker 1: um as huge favors in that game. UM as well,
12:02
Speaker 1: they're they're just not playing on offense quiet like people
12:06
Speaker 1: expected with the fifth year quarterback. It's not surprising Jake
12:09
Speaker 1: Browning didn't play terribly well last year. And then on
12:11
Speaker 1: the flip side, their defense is just as good as
12:13
Speaker 1: it was last year. Their fourth and points allowed last
12:15
Speaker 1: year there right now at only allowing twelve points a game.
12:19
Speaker 1: But b y U as well. They went into a
12:22
Speaker 1: ranked Cow and Cows now ranked and lost by three,
12:25
Speaker 1: kept that game very close, went to a ranked Wisconsin
12:28
Speaker 1: and beat him one, and then play mcnei State this
12:31
Speaker 1: week to throw away again. They wont get that game,
12:33
Speaker 1: and then also week one went to Arizona and won
12:36
Speaker 1: by five. I think it's way too many points to
12:38
Speaker 1: give the Cougars in a game that's gonna be a
12:40
Speaker 1: defensive game. Uh by us only allowing allowing seventeen points
12:44
Speaker 1: a game UM to a defensive game against two teams.
12:47
Speaker 1: I think that are that are matched well and B
12:48
Speaker 1: y U is not getting any love. I want the
12:50
Speaker 1: points here. Probably I love this pick. I almost picked
12:54
Speaker 1: buy you in this game. I watched the you know,
12:57
Speaker 1: being aris in the State Lum. I watched the whole
12:58
Speaker 1: the Arizona State UM Washington game, and I don't know it.
13:02
Speaker 1: Still it feels like Jake Browne is playing a little
13:04
Speaker 1: bit conservative there, or they're just playing conservative completely on offense.
13:09
Speaker 1: And and the way that B y U plays UM,
13:13
Speaker 1: they played the old school style. They're not running a
13:16
Speaker 1: play every seconds. It's excuse me, Mary, five ten seconds.
13:21
Speaker 1: They running five seconds. So I think this line was
13:24
Speaker 1: way too big. So I like by you here, I
13:28
Speaker 1: really do. I love this place so much that I'm
13:32
Speaker 1: trying to uh bet it at the same time that
13:36
Speaker 1: we're talking see that's the way. That's when you're full confidence.
13:41
Speaker 1: It just seems like a very a very weird line,
13:44
Speaker 1: like I don't I think we're still overvaluing Washington. I don't.
13:46
Speaker 1: I don't quite get it. They haven't really done much
13:48
Speaker 1: this year to think to say that was gonna be
13:51
Speaker 1: the case? Is it? Maybe because maybe because of the
13:55
Speaker 1: only team that Look, here's the thing, we're an agreeing,
14:01
Speaker 1: we're in agreement. Let's move on, let's do it. We're
14:04
Speaker 1: one pick into dollars, So let's see. Let's see what
14:08
Speaker 1: kind of trash Mr minus ninety units Paula Duke I
14:12
Speaker 1: can bring to the conversation. Okay, you want some trash
14:15
Speaker 1: m the Hawaii. I don't even want the rainbows, right,
14:21
Speaker 1: I think I think only football's rainbow Warriors. Okay? At
14:25
Speaker 1: San Jose State. Okay, now, I got this game at
14:29
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. Um, it's already gone to thirteen
14:33
Speaker 1: and a half. And here's the reason why Hawaii is
14:36
Speaker 1: number one in the nation in total offense. Guess who's
14:42
Speaker 1: last in the FBS in total defense? San Jose State.
14:47
Speaker 1: So so I started looking at why they are last,
14:50
Speaker 1: and and I started looking at sort of percentages, you know,
14:54
Speaker 1: and looking at the splits of San Jose State, and
14:58
Speaker 1: they're actually not bad against the run. There forty nine
15:02
Speaker 1: in the country against the run. They are dead last
15:06
Speaker 1: against the past. They give up over three hundred and
15:09
Speaker 1: ninety one yards a game. Hawaii ninth in the nation
15:15
Speaker 1: in passing um, over four hundred thirty seven yards a
15:20
Speaker 1: game and five hundred yards per game in total offense.
15:25
Speaker 1: You have to get on this line right now, Hawaii
15:28
Speaker 1: minus it's thirteen and a half. Now, I got it
15:30
Speaker 1: in the last night at eleven and a half, and
15:32
Speaker 1: then this might go up to fourteen or fifteen or so. UM.
15:36
Speaker 1: And now Hawaii has been on the mainland the last
15:38
Speaker 1: two times, and usually what that happens, they'll stay here.
15:41
Speaker 1: So I think they're they're they're okay. Um all over
15:45
Speaker 1: the rainbow wires. I hate this. Go ahead, Jeff, I
15:51
Speaker 1: think you're gonna say you hate, you hate the road.
15:53
Speaker 1: The big road favorite. UM Saursday stayed is really bad. UM.
15:58
Speaker 1: And that might be part of this. If you look
16:00
Speaker 1: at when they play in Washington State now that we're
16:02
Speaker 1: all on the road, they lost thirty one nothing. That's
16:04
Speaker 1: the biggest comp to me to Hawaii's offense, right is
16:06
Speaker 1: the air rate of of Mike Leach compared to what
16:09
Speaker 1: Hawaii runs. Um, I think I know where Chad's going
16:12
Speaker 1: with this, but go ahead, Chad, Well. I just hate
16:16
Speaker 1: the idea of betting a huge road favorite when the
16:18
Speaker 1: line is going in the opposite direction of where we
16:21
Speaker 1: want to bet it. Because by the time we get
16:23
Speaker 1: this bet down, you know it's gonna be two to
16:26
Speaker 1: three points off the best of the number. Right and
16:28
Speaker 1: opened it eleven and a half, It's already a twelve
16:30
Speaker 1: and a half by the time we get this bet
16:32
Speaker 1: down at the end of the show, it could be
16:34
Speaker 1: at thirteen. Who wants to bet on a parlay where
16:37
Speaker 1: I can win when I'm not getting the best of
16:40
Speaker 1: the number. But I'm always so in love with Laduca
16:46
Speaker 1: comes in with research like I sort of got every
16:50
Speaker 1: time he heard his mouth. I have no idea who's
16:52
Speaker 1: where he's going. But he's ready, he's ready, he's ready,
16:55
Speaker 1: he's ready. He comes in with the Hawaii like looking
16:58
Speaker 1: at their splits on offense versus the Santo's day splits
17:01
Speaker 1: on defense. It's genius, so I can't go against it.
17:04
Speaker 1: The only thing I don't like is that we're not
17:06
Speaker 1: getting a great number, but we gotta choose it. We
17:08
Speaker 1: gotta do it. Yes, we can. We can do this.
17:11
Speaker 1: And you know there is a there is a fun
17:13
Speaker 1: thing called open parlay. So I can if we want,
17:16
Speaker 1: I can add this game on Saturday the number comes
17:19
Speaker 1: down a little bit, or we can put it in
17:20
Speaker 1: the other you want gonna sell like Hawaii's three and
17:24
Speaker 1: one lone loss, Army by seven. Army gave Oklahoma fits
17:32
Speaker 1: all they could handle. I think Hawaii's for real. Hawaii's
17:36
Speaker 1: pretty good by the way. We're in. We got it.
17:42
Speaker 1: We got it. Um listen. I said last night when
17:46
Speaker 1: we were trading notes on this that I wanted New
17:50
Speaker 1: Orleans at the New York Giants, and I am I'm
17:54
Speaker 1: changing it up. That's not going to be one of
17:56
Speaker 1: my picks. I actually look at that, I'm like, that
17:58
Speaker 1: is a god awful square a pick. I can't even
18:00
Speaker 1: believe I'm doing that. Um Like, there's no way I
18:04
Speaker 1: should do that. They're gonna be a It goes against
18:06
Speaker 1: everything I believe in a road favorite. That's gonna be
18:09
Speaker 1: getting all the money. That's what I think when I
18:11
Speaker 1: look at that. Um, So, I'm gonna have to reimagine
18:15
Speaker 1: my pick. But my first pick is gonna be Indie
18:19
Speaker 1: as a two and a half point home favorite against
18:25
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans. I'm getting a home team that I've
18:29
Speaker 1: watched a lot in the first three weeks. I've had
18:32
Speaker 1: action on the Colts or against the Colts in every
18:35
Speaker 1: game in the first three weeks, and twice i've been
18:39
Speaker 1: on them. I think this team is really good. I
18:42
Speaker 1: think their defense is so much better than people expected
18:46
Speaker 1: it to be. And Andrew Luck, despite the fact he
18:48
Speaker 1: couldn't play in the last play last night because they're
18:50
Speaker 1: afraid his arm would fall off and threw it more
18:52
Speaker 1: than fifty yards UM like this team that the Eagles
18:58
Speaker 1: needed in a leathern minute nineteen played drive that was
19:02
Speaker 1: aided by multiple phantom penalties to beat the Cults yesterday.
19:08
Speaker 1: You know, last Jeff said something last week because you
19:12
Speaker 1: you like the Colts last week and it was a
19:14
Speaker 1: great call to last weekend, Chad. But Jeff, you said
19:18
Speaker 1: something last week. They are a great cover team and
19:21
Speaker 1: it's because of of Luck. He just he keeps, he
19:26
Speaker 1: finds a way to keep them in the game. Now
19:29
Speaker 1: he does. And we were talking a little bit off
19:31
Speaker 1: air and I think Chad was exactly right about this.
19:34
Speaker 1: Chris Bauer, the Colts GM has been really hammering defense,
19:37
Speaker 1: and he brought some offensive linement two in the draft,
19:39
Speaker 1: but hammering young athletic defenders. He was in Kansas City
19:43
Speaker 1: that that was the defense that Bob Sun imagined having,
19:46
Speaker 1: as a bunch of athletes who can run everywhere and
19:48
Speaker 1: blitz and create havoc. And that's what they're doing right now.
19:52
Speaker 1: And you have a Texans offensive line that's probably the
19:54
Speaker 1: worst NFL. DeShawn Watson looks absolutely show. He looks nothing
19:58
Speaker 1: like he did last week. There's no creativity all that offense,
20:01
Speaker 1: and it feels very much like the Colts are, for
20:04
Speaker 1: whatever reason, still aren't getting the respect that they should
20:08
Speaker 1: be getting. Also, at the end of the day, sometimes
20:12
Speaker 1: I don't even look at the teams, like if I
20:14
Speaker 1: have a home team getting less than three points, like
20:18
Speaker 1: I'm just taking it. That's it. I'm in in in alright, Jeff,
20:26
Speaker 1: you're gonna be up next. But first I want to
20:29
Speaker 1: talk about Hello Fresh. Anyone who listened to the podcast
20:32
Speaker 1: knows we want to spend our time researching bets and
20:37
Speaker 1: we want to spend our money making those bets, which
20:40
Speaker 1: means we need help feeding ourselves and feeding our families.
20:45
Speaker 1: That's why we love Hello Fresh. We have three plans
20:49
Speaker 1: to choose from. We have the classic, the veggie, and
20:53
Speaker 1: the family. We get to look forward to our Hello
20:55
Speaker 1: Fresh delivery knowing dinner just got that much easier. We
21:00
Speaker 1: will not spend all night in the kitchen because recipes
21:02
Speaker 1: only take around thirty minutes, and that means more time
21:06
Speaker 1: researching our bets. We get delicious, filling meals delivered right
21:10
Speaker 1: to our door every week for less than ten dollars
21:13
Speaker 1: per serving and free shipping, which means more money to
21:18
Speaker 1: spend on our bets. I have had everyone knows. Anyone
21:22
Speaker 1: who listens to the podcast knows I love figs. Conveniently,
21:28
Speaker 1: Hello Fresh has a figgy balsamic pork that we had
21:32
Speaker 1: in my house. We also tried the Southwestern beef tacos
21:35
Speaker 1: because my fifteen year old we're really only eat tacos. Um.
21:39
Speaker 1: It's been fantastic. We loved making the meals together for
21:44
Speaker 1: a total of sixty dollars off. That's twenty dollars off
21:47
Speaker 1: your first three boxes. Visit Hello Fresh dot com, slash
21:52
Speaker 1: favorites sixty and enter favorites sixty. Again, that's a total
21:57
Speaker 1: of sixty dollars off twin of dollars off your first
22:01
Speaker 1: three boxes. Visit Hello Fresh dot com slash favorites sixty
22:06
Speaker 1: and enter favorites sixty. It's like receiving six meals free
22:11
Speaker 1: or up to off of three boxes. What is better
22:17
Speaker 1: than getting something with figs that saves you money and
22:20
Speaker 1: gives you more time to research your bets? Guys, go
22:24
Speaker 1: get Hello Fresh? All right, Jeff Europe? All right, So
22:28
Speaker 1: I'm gonna, like I said, I need to go against
22:30
Speaker 1: what I would normally do here um and I am
22:34
Speaker 1: going Denver plus four. Don't hate me, Kansas City fans.
22:37
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, my brother. Now you can still win this game.
22:39
Speaker 1: But but I think Denver covers your Monday night football.
22:41
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you why again four points at how
22:44
Speaker 1: much I like their defense is good? We we all
22:48
Speaker 1: know their defense is good. Yes, they didn't play terribly
22:50
Speaker 1: well in Baltimore, but generally speaking, their defense is really legit.
22:55
Speaker 1: Third third in rush yards per game um uh eight
22:59
Speaker 1: and rush yards or a tim like they are good
23:01
Speaker 1: defense passing, of course we know, and the problem with
23:04
Speaker 1: the Chiefs defense being so bad is It puts so
23:08
Speaker 1: much pressure on the Chiefs offense to have to be
23:10
Speaker 1: perfect every single time they get the football, and that's
23:13
Speaker 1: hard to do, especially on the road on Monday night football.
23:17
Speaker 1: That crowd is going to be amped up. And I
23:20
Speaker 1: just don't know if that offense can be perfect every
23:23
Speaker 1: single jobby Because Denver's offense will score points against the Chiefs.
23:26
Speaker 1: The Chief's defense is horrendous. It's not getting any better, um.
23:30
Speaker 1: And I I just this is a game of the
23:33
Speaker 1: public is gonna be all over the Chiefs in this game.
23:35
Speaker 1: The line has already dropped a little bit from when
23:38
Speaker 1: it came out. I think Denver the points at home,
23:40
Speaker 1: UM is gonna be very much against what what what what?
23:44
Speaker 1: The public is gonna bet like this idea. I hate
23:50
Speaker 1: this pick. I like this pick, and I'll tell you why,
23:54
Speaker 1: what do you think about it? I said it last
23:56
Speaker 1: week and I was right. It didn't matter if Blaine
23:59
Speaker 1: Gabbert or Mariota started. After Jacksonville beat New England, they
24:03
Speaker 1: were the toast of the town and then boom they
24:06
Speaker 1: get beat out right nine six in a pictures duel.
24:11
Speaker 1: Then now you're looking at this game and Pat Mahomes
24:15
Speaker 1: right now is literally on every single channel, and I'm listen.
24:21
Speaker 1: I I love the kid. I always been telling everybody
24:24
Speaker 1: that I thought this kid is the real deal and
24:26
Speaker 1: he's finally gonna be a big twelve quarterback. But this
24:28
Speaker 1: is the one time you got to fade him. And
24:30
Speaker 1: this lion is a little bit low. I think going
24:33
Speaker 1: into Denver, into that air, it's a divisional foe. They
24:39
Speaker 1: know the offense. I know it's explosive. I actually liked
24:42
Speaker 1: this pick, I really do. And listen, he's picking against
24:45
Speaker 1: his brothers, So it's like picking against a team that's
24:48
Speaker 1: like like your your favorite team. So when a guy
24:51
Speaker 1: gives you, like a play against my team, you get
24:54
Speaker 1: a better You get that nice warm feeling inside of yead.
24:58
Speaker 1: You feel like you feel like his credibility is bolstered.
25:02
Speaker 1: Why don't I like this picture? No faith in case Keenum.
25:07
Speaker 1: None like he He has been the case Keenum before
25:13
Speaker 1: the Case Keenum of last year. He has been the
25:15
Speaker 1: guy who there was a reason why he had been
25:18
Speaker 1: sort of a journeyman bench player. He is making bad decisions.
25:23
Speaker 1: He is throwing the ball into coverage. I don't think
25:26
Speaker 1: the running game for the Broncos is good enough to
25:28
Speaker 1: support him, Like, I just don't think he can he
25:32
Speaker 1: can be the reason why they win games. I don't
25:34
Speaker 1: think he can be the reason why they win a shootout, um,
25:38
Speaker 1: which is what this could potentially be. Listen, the Chiefs
25:41
Speaker 1: can't sustain They're gonna play a team with a really
25:46
Speaker 1: good defense at some point. The Broncos do have an
25:48
Speaker 1: amazing defense, but they haven't been so amazing. They couldn't
25:52
Speaker 1: like keep the Ravens from scoring twenty seven points or
25:56
Speaker 1: whatever they scored. So just like if I'm gonna if
26:02
Speaker 1: I'm gonna win twenty I don't think I don't think
26:05
Speaker 1: it's gonna be betting on the Broncos against the Chiefs.
26:08
Speaker 1: So you're throwing a challenge flag. Now, I'm holding that
26:12
Speaker 1: I got I got some later. Oh you have to later,
26:18
Speaker 1: you have a challenge tape later. So you're projecting that
26:20
Speaker 1: one of us is gonna have a bad pick. YEP.
26:25
Speaker 1: I just think that I need to do something different
26:28
Speaker 1: this week. And it feels like the public is going
26:30
Speaker 1: to be all over Kansas City, and I just the
26:34
Speaker 1: Chief's defense really worries me. They just can't off anyone.
26:38
Speaker 1: They can't stop off one and it's just yeah, it's bad.
26:44
Speaker 1: The Broncos offense is better than that you give a
26:46
Speaker 1: credit for. I thinks, all right, all right, let's do it,
26:52
Speaker 1: all right, PAULI, Okay, we're gonna go back to college football.
26:56
Speaker 1: Old Dominion at East Carolina. Now, this line is East
27:02
Speaker 1: Carolina minus five, so Chad will start laughing. Your boy,
27:07
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson's on this game. Colin Wilson, college football analysts
27:12
Speaker 1: for the Actration networker's a genius, Yes he is. And
27:15
Speaker 1: you know what he made me start researching. And I
27:18
Speaker 1: didn't realize that East Carolina there one and two. Um.
27:23
Speaker 1: They lost last week to a tough us F teams
27:26
Speaker 1: South Florida, who's now four and oh um, but they
27:29
Speaker 1: boat raced North Carolina, who actually beat Pittsburgh, um this
27:35
Speaker 1: last Saturday. But the public is knee jerk reaction to
27:38
Speaker 1: Old Dominion. Who they're playing. Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech. Okay,
27:42
Speaker 1: at home, Virginia Tech is awful. A lot of people
27:45
Speaker 1: don't look at the other games that Old Dominion played.
27:49
Speaker 1: They lost to Charlotte and they got beat by Liberty
27:53
Speaker 1: by forty two. Those are the two road games. So
27:56
Speaker 1: now they got to go into East Carolina, who, by
27:59
Speaker 1: the way, is eighth in the nation in total defense.
28:09
Speaker 1: You're betting East Carolina right now? I don't know, man,
28:11
Speaker 1: I think I think I think Paul is onto. I
28:14
Speaker 1: already got this, already got this game in every app
28:19
Speaker 1: like they if you look at how many how your
28:23
Speaker 1: daughter put on this game. I flew to Jersey. She's fourteen.
28:29
Speaker 1: Now she can fly. I feel like we have a
28:33
Speaker 1: fluke college game every year, and it feels like this
28:36
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech game was one of those because if you
28:37
Speaker 1: look at it at old Dominions and the last thing
28:41
Speaker 1: would have showed you like Charlotte. I'm telling you Charlotte
28:43
Speaker 1: is really bad. They're bad at football. They were one
28:45
Speaker 1: in eleven last year. Um, they're tiny bit better this season,
28:49
Speaker 1: but you know they went, they went and lost to
28:51
Speaker 1: Charlotte in a road game, and Charlotte this year lost
28:54
Speaker 1: to Massachusetts absolutely blew them out. I mean, it's just
28:58
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know. This is an off the
29:00
Speaker 1: wall pick, but I kind of sort of like it.
29:03
Speaker 1: What do you think? All right? I think anytime I
29:06
Speaker 1: can get uh dolls riding on East Carolina, it is
29:13
Speaker 1: this better? This is better? Or worse than betting on
29:16
Speaker 1: New Mexico. Did we win that bet? Yeah? We did,
29:21
Speaker 1: didn't we We won that bet? Yeah? That was the
29:24
Speaker 1: I believe that was the Red River arrivalry Rio Grande rivalry. Well,
29:29
Speaker 1: there you go, red the Red River is the Red River?
29:33
Speaker 1: Like Oklahoma Texas? Yeah, Oklahoma Texas or like that much
29:38
Speaker 1: of a difference between Oklahoma Texas and New Mexico New Bicoast.
29:44
Speaker 1: They're proctably the same in the ISAA college football fans.
29:48
Speaker 1: So Paul al has been kind of right on these
29:50
Speaker 1: weird college picks. Man, I know he is, he totally is.
29:54
Speaker 1: But now we're like, we're going into conferences Eastern Carolina
29:57
Speaker 1: even playing I can't even find them in the in
29:59
Speaker 1: the app to put bedded uh the the Eastern Carolina Conference.
30:06
Speaker 1: It's East Carolina. Aren't they in North Carolina? Just like
30:11
Speaker 1: they're in a tiny I'm sure they're far from me
30:13
Speaker 1: with the state is bigger than you think it is. Um,
30:16
Speaker 1: let's see where East Carolina football is. They got their
30:20
Speaker 1: their game was canceled what two weeks ago against Virginia Tech.
30:22
Speaker 1: They were supposed to be a Virginia Tech two weeks
30:24
Speaker 1: two weeks ago yeah, yeah, I got canceled. And then,
30:28
Speaker 1: like I said, USF is pretty good. Four non turn right, Okay,
30:37
Speaker 1: let's go a million monster. Here we go. Chad Millie
30:41
Speaker 1: Monster picks the Oakland Raiders as three point favorites at
30:48
Speaker 1: home against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. It is
30:54
Speaker 1: time to get off the Baker train, do you know
30:58
Speaker 1: what I'm saying? Like, this game is never gonna have
31:01
Speaker 1: a shorter number than it does this week. The wise
31:07
Speaker 1: guys were all over the Raiders this past week, and
31:10
Speaker 1: I cannot figure out why because Miami I thought was
31:12
Speaker 1: a better team. But Oakland kept it really close for
31:15
Speaker 1: most of the game. They're actually ahead obviously for most
31:17
Speaker 1: of the game. There's one flute play that really put
31:20
Speaker 1: the Dolphins over the top, and then a touchdown at
31:22
Speaker 1: the end that really just sort of sealed it for them.
31:25
Speaker 1: But um, like I think Baker Mayfield going on the
31:31
Speaker 1: road for the first time as a starter into Oakland
31:35
Speaker 1: where this Oakland team they're starting to play much much better. Um,
31:40
Speaker 1: that is a very easy number, uh to top? Like
31:44
Speaker 1: that is a short home number. Uh, I don't think
31:48
Speaker 1: I think Oakland's playing better than his record reflects the
31:51
Speaker 1: problem with Oakland is they have wilted now at the
31:55
Speaker 1: end of every game this season. Um, where they have
31:57
Speaker 1: started strong, and I like the offense for that exact reason.
32:01
Speaker 1: Last week, UM, I guess yesterday because you know they
32:04
Speaker 1: have they just have wilted. Um. But I think you
32:10
Speaker 1: have time to prepare for Baker Mayfield. Now we know
32:13
Speaker 1: the first game typically like a coming in Baker Mayfield
32:15
Speaker 1: is like the Hero and Cleveland. The second game is
32:17
Speaker 1: just not as good. Um. I don't know, Paul, I
32:22
Speaker 1: don't even. I haven't even. I didn't look at this
32:24
Speaker 1: game because I didn't think anyone was gonna bet it.
32:27
Speaker 1: While the line has moved, it opened it one, it's
32:30
Speaker 1: gone to three. Um. Yeah, Actually, I think I listed
32:35
Speaker 1: it last night when we um when we were talking
32:38
Speaker 1: about these games. It was at one and a half
32:41
Speaker 1: when I liked it. So three is a big number.
32:43
Speaker 1: I actually I'm wrong when I'm saying that it won't
32:45
Speaker 1: get any shorter, or that it that it was a
32:48
Speaker 1: really nice short number. I liked it one and a half. Well,
32:51
Speaker 1: I actually liked the play just because the reason why
32:57
Speaker 1: I get the logic has nothing to do with stats
32:59
Speaker 1: or anything. The logic has to do with Hugh Jackson.
33:01
Speaker 1: He just won his second game. I mean, I played
33:10
Speaker 1: maybe three downs of football in high school. Okay, it does.
33:15
Speaker 1: It doesn't take. It takes like a seven year old
33:19
Speaker 1: kid to realize that Baker Mayfield's arm strength awareness around
33:22
Speaker 1: the park. He was so much sharper and so much
33:25
Speaker 1: better than Tyrod Taylor. The first of all, Baker Mayfield
33:29
Speaker 1: not starting the season is an absolute joke. If you
33:32
Speaker 1: can't tell me and you could not see with your
33:34
Speaker 1: own eyes that Baker Mayfield is twenty times more talented
33:39
Speaker 1: the Tyrod Taylor, you're an idiot. Number two, After winning
33:42
Speaker 1: that game, he's gonna say, I'm not gonna announce my
33:45
Speaker 1: quarterback to Monday. You know what, million monster, You're right,
33:47
Speaker 1: but against this schmuck. Uh. The funny part is I've
33:50
Speaker 1: been like on a Fade Raiders thing all season, so um,
33:53
Speaker 1: I don't I don't mind going with the Raiders here.
33:55
Speaker 1: But the reason I just want to put off because
33:57
Speaker 1: this has been a misconception. The reason why Hugh Jackson
34:00
Speaker 1: did not announce Baker Mayfield right after the game is
34:03
Speaker 1: because A. Tyrod Taylor is in cushion protocol and B
34:07
Speaker 1: he probably doesn't want to have his quarterback learn on
34:09
Speaker 1: Twitter that he's being replaced right after that game, Like,
34:12
Speaker 1: just he's gonna he's not gonna be two passes into.
34:17
Speaker 1: I know he knows this. He's not, he's not He's
34:20
Speaker 1: not a moron. He knows he's not gonna play anymore. Um,
34:23
Speaker 1: just like last night Steve Wilkes said, we have to
34:25
Speaker 1: watch the film. Josh Rosen is gonna play next week.
34:28
Speaker 1: We know he's gonna play. You know he's gonna be
34:29
Speaker 1: the starter. It's just code for let me tell my
34:33
Speaker 1: guy in private before I announced the world that my
34:37
Speaker 1: new quarterback is playing. Yes, OK, so I'm sorry Tyrode
34:43
Speaker 1: all write you a letter to apologize. No, I don't
34:45
Speaker 1: have to apologize to him, but I'm just saying that,
34:46
Speaker 1: Like I knocked the Browns all the time, Like I am,
34:50
Speaker 1: I think that they have no plan whatsoever. I think
34:52
Speaker 1: they wasted two games not not playing Baker Mayfield. But
34:55
Speaker 1: this is one where look, I gotta I gotta defend
34:57
Speaker 1: Hugh a tiny bit on this because I think he's
35:00
Speaker 1: getting a little flak for this. You shouldn't get. So
35:03
Speaker 1: we agree. We're on the Oakland Raiders. Yes, Wow, another
35:08
Speaker 1: bull picked by the million Monster. But I mean, if
35:10
Speaker 1: you keep picking these kind of picks, I don't even
35:13
Speaker 1: know how you can make the million Monster like you can,
35:17
Speaker 1: you can make it evolved into its own It already
35:24
Speaker 1: is its own brother. It's a fully fledged monster as
35:30
Speaker 1: we speak. Jeff, get us, get us the funk out
35:34
Speaker 1: of this, all right. I The next pick is uh oh,
35:40
Speaker 1: No Lions in the Cowboys in Dallas plus three and
35:45
Speaker 1: a half. For a couple of reasons here. One, the
35:47
Speaker 1: Lions finally played last night like I thought they would,
35:50
Speaker 1: which is they revamped their offensive line and they're all
35:52
Speaker 1: healthy now. They all played well. They dominated if they
35:55
Speaker 1: had their first hundred yard rusher since Thanksgiving of they
35:59
Speaker 1: drafted Rion Johnson from Auburn. He played really well. Matt
36:02
Speaker 1: Stafford might have the best trio of wide receivers in
36:05
Speaker 1: the NFL as far as all three of their guys
36:07
Speaker 1: who they have with Tate and and and Um and
36:11
Speaker 1: Jones and and Gala Day. They finally played to their
36:13
Speaker 1: potential on on offense, I thought last night, and look
36:16
Speaker 1: they've they put up twenty seven points against the Niners.
36:18
Speaker 1: Um and defensively they have a good back end. They're
36:21
Speaker 1: starting at the pass rush going. They play fast at
36:23
Speaker 1: linebacker UM, and they are a great backdoor cover team
36:28
Speaker 1: because they put up a lot of points and I
36:30
Speaker 1: have Stafford's down fourteen points in the third quarter. They'll
36:33
Speaker 1: go up tempo and they'll score a lot of points.
36:34
Speaker 1: And also the Cowboys are a disaster. We talked about
36:37
Speaker 1: coaches that that could be fired. Jason Garrett to me,
36:40
Speaker 1: has lost his team. They look lifeless now in Week
36:43
Speaker 1: one and in Seattle last week. UM. Offensively, they're just erect.
36:48
Speaker 1: Their offensive line, which used to be very solids, having issues.
36:51
Speaker 1: They have no one to throw the ball to. Um.
36:53
Speaker 1: Defensively speaking, they have a good defensive front, but really
36:56
Speaker 1: nothing else. I think this is too many points. And
36:58
Speaker 1: that hook is really nice for the Lions call in.
37:03
Speaker 1: I'm all in, Wow, you're done. You're done with Dugie
37:09
Speaker 1: howser Jason Garrett. He's never been in control of that team,
37:13
Speaker 1: by the way, No, he he's sort of the most
37:17
Speaker 1: nondescript coach who doesn't puppet milktoast like no personality. He's
37:23
Speaker 1: a black flyer. Yeah, exactly, puppet like every MLB manager.
37:29
Speaker 1: He said about six Wow, Oh that's true. I used
37:34
Speaker 1: to read literally, the Dodgers are eight and ten when
37:39
Speaker 1: La Duca hits fifth. They're eleven and one when he
37:42
Speaker 1: hits second. And I hadn't hit second in a month,
37:45
Speaker 1: boom might be hitting second. They just read the newspaper
37:47
Speaker 1: and boom they plug. Well, we know that. I don't
37:50
Speaker 1: know if you ever listened mus to Ross Porter. I
37:52
Speaker 1: used to call Dodger games. He was the best person
37:54
Speaker 1: I've ever seen in some of those weird stats, like
37:56
Speaker 1: Paul paula duke up with the plate when it's uh
37:59
Speaker 1: four before four pm facing a lefty on a Saturday,
38:02
Speaker 1: Paul is seven for twenty three with eight grounders. Like
38:06
Speaker 1: it's just like You're like, dude, that's a lot of
38:07
Speaker 1: information I did not need to know about really, uh
38:11
Speaker 1: our managers. I've always wanted to ask this, Paul. I
38:12
Speaker 1: know the football podcast, but I don't think managers do
38:16
Speaker 1: they matter very much? Like does a good manager really matter?
38:18
Speaker 1: Is it more just like managing almost like the bullpen?
38:21
Speaker 1: Like like what does a manager, a good manager do
38:23
Speaker 1: for a team? A good manager does with Joe Torre
38:25
Speaker 1: does he keeps everybody out of trouble outside the clubhouse
38:28
Speaker 1: and makes everybody happy inside the clubhouse. And you know,
38:32
Speaker 1: when you're managing a lot of guys and you're managing
38:34
Speaker 1: every single person in that clubhouse is making more money
38:37
Speaker 1: than you. You're managing a ton of egos. You're also
38:42
Speaker 1: trying to be um, somewhat of their father figure but
38:46
Speaker 1: not too much, somewhat of their best friend but not
38:48
Speaker 1: too much. Plus you're also dealing with a kid from Georgia,
38:52
Speaker 1: a kid from Venezuela, a kid from Puerto Rico, a
38:54
Speaker 1: kid from the Dominican, a kid from Texas. So all
38:57
Speaker 1: different cultures and eclecticness that goes into a clubhouse. You
39:02
Speaker 1: gotta be able to handle that on the fence, if
39:07
Speaker 1: that makes any sense. So you gotta play both sides, um,
39:11
Speaker 1: But you also got to be truthful. The best managers
39:13
Speaker 1: you played for the guys to tell you the truth.
39:15
Speaker 1: Hey you're not playing today, Hey be ready, You're gonna
39:17
Speaker 1: be playing tomorrow, so you're not surprised. How is that
39:20
Speaker 1: different than a football coach? Football? I think a football
39:25
Speaker 1: coach does manage personalities, but they are much more in
39:28
Speaker 1: excess and os than I'd say a baseball Now there's
39:31
Speaker 1: not as much exos and baseball obviously, um, but I
39:34
Speaker 1: think a football locker room polices itself a little bit,
39:38
Speaker 1: maybe more than baseball does. I don't know, I don't,
39:40
Speaker 1: I don't. I guess I wouldn't know. But I think
39:42
Speaker 1: there's much more strategy evolved to be a football coach
39:46
Speaker 1: than a baseball manager. Yeah. I think in baseball base
39:52
Speaker 1: by play by play, right, Chad, Like each play the
39:55
Speaker 1: football coaches involved. The baseball managers not involved at every
39:58
Speaker 1: single pitch, which would be aculous, But um, there's not
40:01
Speaker 1: as much in game strategy. You know what works, Chad?
40:05
Speaker 1: You hire guys to do a certain thing. Every team
40:08
Speaker 1: that I've played on that's had success and we you know,
40:11
Speaker 1: I almost got to the World Series. It didn't win anything.
40:13
Speaker 1: But when a coach lets the batting coach be the
40:17
Speaker 1: batting coach or the the head coach, meant lets the
40:21
Speaker 1: offensive line coach be the offensive line coach. And even
40:24
Speaker 1: though he was an offensive lineman, I understand they lend hands.
40:28
Speaker 1: And my best manager I ever had was Mike Sosha.
40:31
Speaker 1: He just handled the catchers because he was a catcher.
40:34
Speaker 1: He didn't try to handle the hitters, the outfielders and
40:37
Speaker 1: everything else. That's why you hire other coaches to do that,
40:40
Speaker 1: and if you let your other coaches do their job,
40:42
Speaker 1: they are going to have the confidence to do it.
40:44
Speaker 1: But if you put your two cents into everything, it's
40:47
Speaker 1: just not gonna work. I am going to do what
40:50
Speaker 1: good managers do, and I'm gonna let Paula Duca do
40:54
Speaker 1: his job right now and make our next choice. Okay,
40:58
Speaker 1: So last night when we were we're putting these picks
41:01
Speaker 1: in and we were thinking about playing, I originally had
41:05
Speaker 1: said New England they're minus They were minus eight last night.
41:09
Speaker 1: Now I've taken the game off the board. Their minus seven,
41:13
Speaker 1: and I have a feeling that the people are going
41:17
Speaker 1: to go in and play the Patriots. I think I
41:21
Speaker 1: saw something the last time the Patriots had lost two
41:25
Speaker 1: games by double digits. It's the like the price of
41:28
Speaker 1: gas was like twenty nine cents or something like that.
41:30
Speaker 1: It's like something stupid, right, I mean, um, so I
41:35
Speaker 1: am gonna call a little bit. Oh man, I'm gonna
41:41
Speaker 1: call an audible. I like it. I'm gonna go with
41:47
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. Dude, like this amazing podcast. I
41:57
Speaker 1: love this thing. I don't even know to say. I'm
42:01
Speaker 1: challenging that there's no already said in the beginning, I
42:06
Speaker 1: had the Saints, but then I realized, I'm not going
42:09
Speaker 1: on the Saints. They're gonna be like they're gonna be
42:11
Speaker 1: road favorites. They're gonna be getting all the money. There's
42:14
Speaker 1: no way we can go in the Saints. We can't
42:17
Speaker 1: bet the Saints. And I was gonna I almost was
42:22
Speaker 1: gonna throw a challenge fog baying the Patriots too. Um yeah, yeah,
42:25
Speaker 1: I don't. I almost like the Patriot game is like
42:29
Speaker 1: I'm laying off the game. See this is this is
42:32
Speaker 1: one of those chad where like I have to like
42:34
Speaker 1: I struck, you know, I told you that to be
42:36
Speaker 1: in the year like I was gonna do I do
42:38
Speaker 1: I bet games based on how I think they're gonna
42:40
Speaker 1: go as a player, or do I bet them as
42:41
Speaker 1: like a as a sharp shit? Right? So I think
42:44
Speaker 1: I agree with you with the sharp is gonna be
42:46
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a ton of money on the Saints. Um,
42:48
Speaker 1: no one's gonna trust the Giants. Yet there are a road.
42:51
Speaker 1: Um there are a road uh favorite, and and that
42:54
Speaker 1: hook is three and a half, right, so they have
42:56
Speaker 1: to win obviously by four or more. Um. But like
42:59
Speaker 1: the player in me, he says the Saints should win
43:01
Speaker 1: this game, right, there's no doubt about it. They they're
43:04
Speaker 1: you're gonna score a ton of points. The Giants the
43:06
Speaker 1: first half yesterday, really good second half. Their offensive line
43:09
Speaker 1: did not play well. Again, Eli didn't play so well.
43:12
Speaker 1: Scan Barkley did played. It was a good game for him. Um,
43:15
Speaker 1: the Texas are just bad. So like, uh, you feel
43:19
Speaker 1: very strongly about this. Correct? How about this million monster,
43:21
Speaker 1: I'm gonna change the pick for what's your other pick? Paul? Yeah?
43:24
Speaker 1: Do you do you want to hear my other pick? Millions?
43:27
Speaker 1: The Minnesota Vikings. What's this numbers? Plus five and a half?
43:34
Speaker 1: I think opened up in seven. It's to me, it's
43:37
Speaker 1: the it's the plus six and a half. They just
43:39
Speaker 1: got blown out at home against the Battles five and
43:44
Speaker 1: a half. So the money is going six and a half. Okay,
43:49
Speaker 1: just what do you guys tell me? You're telling me
43:52
Speaker 1: still six and a half? I like six. I like that.
43:55
Speaker 1: I like that pick. I'm great A three and oh.
43:58
Speaker 1: Would you would think that game would have probably been
44:01
Speaker 1: eight seven and a half, eight, or at least opened
44:03
Speaker 1: at seven. Actually, the money has gone towards the over
44:08
Speaker 1: which Minnesota looked pathetic on offense, but I would think
44:13
Speaker 1: that number is telling you in Vegas, is telling you
44:16
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of money on the Rams.
44:20
Speaker 1: I'll take a flyer on this one. Here's what I'm
44:25
Speaker 1: gonna do. Can me the New York Giants plus three
44:27
Speaker 1: and a half? No? He basically back towards You're going
44:36
Speaker 1: back to the Giants coming full circle? Boys. Oh man,
44:45
Speaker 1: if you want to throw the challenge, you can. I've
44:47
Speaker 1: got two other picks I would go with. Can I hear?
44:49
Speaker 1: Can I at least hear what the other picks are
44:50
Speaker 1: going to be? Oh? I want to hear. Why why
44:53
Speaker 1: you loathe New Orleans? I know you don't want to
44:57
Speaker 1: do at all. It's against his personal better strategy. Yes,
45:03
Speaker 1: it's exactly what it is. It's like the money is
45:05
Speaker 1: gonna be on the Saints. They're gonna be They're gonna
45:08
Speaker 1: be road favorites. I'm getting a hook right now. Uh.
45:12
Speaker 1: I like that. I like the percentage play there. That's it.
45:17
Speaker 1: So what do you let me hear another pick? Just
45:19
Speaker 1: before Arizona plus three or t C plus three three? Arizona?
45:28
Speaker 1: I mean, do they get energized with Josh Rosen yes, yes, Oh,
45:32
Speaker 1: the Seattle plays off on the road. They've they've struggled
45:36
Speaker 1: in Arizona. This is one of my other NFL plays.
45:38
Speaker 1: I was hoping that people would bet a lot in Seattle,
45:40
Speaker 1: and I get even more points for for for the
45:42
Speaker 1: Cardinals at home. I am in on the Cardinals. All right,
45:47
Speaker 1: I'll change it. I'll do Arizona plus three. Boys, guess
45:53
Speaker 1: what we have? Not a winner? Was that a flyer
45:59
Speaker 1: chat Arizona lit? A flyer with a flyer on the
46:04
Speaker 1: two teams that are bird themed. Uh, and you know
46:10
Speaker 1: what the funny part is? We have nine games and
46:12
Speaker 1: I'm really excited to watch New Orleans against the Giants.
46:16
Speaker 1: So true. Al Right, guys, let me let me recap
46:22
Speaker 1: here for the for you know, for the for the
46:25
Speaker 1: thousands of fans. Um, here's our nine team parlay b
46:29
Speaker 1: y U plus sixteen and a half at Washington Hawaii
46:33
Speaker 1: minus fourteen at San Jose State, Indianapolis Colts minus two
46:39
Speaker 1: and a half at home against Houston, The Denver Broncos
46:42
Speaker 1: plus four against the Kansas City Chiefs, Easter East Carolina
46:46
Speaker 1: minus five and a half against Old Dominion Oakland minus
46:51
Speaker 1: three versus the Cleveland Browns Detroit plus three and a
46:56
Speaker 1: half against Dallas. We have the Vikings plus six and
47:01
Speaker 1: a half on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Rams.
47:06
Speaker 1: The Arizona Cardinals plus three at home against the Seattle Seahawks.
47:13
Speaker 1: I like it. That's gonna be six sixty bucks. It's
47:18
Speaker 1: gonna pay twenty thousand dollars. So here we go. Thanks
47:25
Speaker 1: for listening to the Favorites. We have shows on Monday,
47:30
Speaker 1: Wednesday and Friday. Check out our website Action network dot com.
47:34
Speaker 1: Download our app where you can play along with us.
47:37
Speaker 1: If you bet our parleys, share your betting slip hashtag
47:41
Speaker 1: Favorites Parley on social and tag Action Network h Q
47:45
Speaker 1: at Action Network h Q, and you can win a
47:49
Speaker 1: free subscription. You might be able to win that and
47:53
Speaker 1: we'll do a drawing. Um paul Le Duca, Jeff Sports.
47:57
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining me. See you guys on Wednesday when
47:59
Speaker 1: I tell r Bookmaker to the world. Bob SCOOCHI until
48:03
Speaker 1: next time, h