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Best Bets NFL Week 18 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Today is our Week eight team Thursday NFL episode, Feeling
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Feelings of Melancholy and Sadness that we're at the week
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: eighteen Thursday episode. This is where we will get feedback
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: from the wise guys who listen to the show. They'll
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: give us our sharp calls where we build our moneyline
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Underdog Round Robin. We will give at our Foxhole Bet,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: our Big Balls bet of the Week. We will narrow
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: down our picks for the final time for the free
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. As our pal Colin Cowhard likes to say,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there, because there's a
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: sea of money out there. If you want to follow
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: along with our official bets, you can check them out
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com, where
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday. If you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: prefer using the award winning Action app, you can track
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: all the bets. My co host Simon and I lock
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, the Phase five and the
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast. Now let's bring in my cost my companion,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: MI compadre, my BFF, professional, better Sigmon, hunter Eto, It's
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: all I am in, Hello, lot Chud. I'm a little sad.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: I gotta say, like saying all this stuff for the
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: last time. We put so much freaking energy into what
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: the season is going to be like, and this contest,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: specifically doing it for the first time under our own
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: banner with bet three six five, having twelve thousand people
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: sign up, these stakes to me felt higher than ever
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: because we were compete in real time with our friends
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: and listeners. So I'm a little bummed feeling like as
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: much as hard as it is today. When I was
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: doing my final prep for the show on our Thursday show,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: it felt a little bit like the end of school,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: like prepping for your last final. I'm just a little
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: doing a little bittersweet.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: I'm honestly happy.
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: It's just it's a lot of pressure of the show,
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: and like you said, we had our own conscious this year,
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: so the goal stayed the same. It's like, okay, can
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: look like idiots can't go thirty five and forty five
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: and luckily we had another really good winning year. The
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: fans were happy, the show grow and we are about
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: to give away would you say.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Eighty thousand dollars this Sunday?
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: So pretty surreal feeling knowing that we just ran a
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: free contest and now we're about to give away eighty
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars on site.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: That's right, that's rights. As a reminder, thanks to our sponsors.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every
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  Speaker 1: day they power out the odds one hundreds of bets
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  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older
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  Speaker 1: in present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
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  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. I should say, by the way,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: we usually dominate the playoffs, So just because the contest
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: is over doesn't mean we're going to stop having our
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: favorite bets, doesn't mean we're going to start making those bets,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean we're going to stop talking about those bets.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: In the podcast, we go all the way through, and
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: we tend to have a really success successful playoff season.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Week eighteen is approaching, though, opportunities all over the board.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling good about where we're gonna land. But before
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: we get to it, let's hear some sharp calls.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there. I'm talking rain.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody's saying, maybe what you do man?
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: All think that's pretty eas We'll start with the Saturday
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: games and we'll go to the Sunday games.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: We talk a little bit about that Pittsburgh Ravens game.
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: We kind of know what to deal with it. We said,
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: we'll probably just end up taking the dog. Most pros
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: I talked to the same view as we do. Chad,
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: you just take the dog. We don't really care who
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: the quarterbacks are. We don't care who's playing who's not playing. Yeah,
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: it's the Ravens backups trying to play spoiler against a
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: really desperate Pittsburgh team. So if you're wondering who the
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: pros like in this game, I think you can kind
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: of tell if you go and look at the splits.
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: All the money, all the bets right now are on
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: this Ravens team. And they were plus four or plus
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: four and a half last night when I went to bed,
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: I woke up this morning they're back down to plus three.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: Not that shocking, but just know it's a public dog.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: Me and Chad talk all the time. Be careful when
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: you're betting public dogs. This is one of the bigger
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: public dogs of the week, this Ravens team. The next
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: one they gave me chaw, we're gonna getrough, for sure.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: I like the Colts. Chad like Houston. I thought it
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: was gonna be all Pros all over the Colts. It's
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: pretty split, honestly, Like I know some really sharp groups
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: who like Houston.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: They liked Houston at plus one, they liked it a
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: plus one and a half.
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: I'm honestly shocked by it just feels like such a
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: trap spot that back Houston so that's definitely a game
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: we'll break down.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: It's it's split.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: It's fifty to fifty from what I've one of the
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: guys I've talked to the there's some pros like me
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: who love the Colts in the spot. There's other pros
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: who love of Houston, they love CJ, and they love
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: the spot for them.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: Let's keep it moving.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: Titans another public dog we like. Again, not the best
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: spot to be and it's the pros like it. The
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: public likes it. You know, I read Evans trends. It
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: makes me feel a little better about backing these kind
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: of dogs in these spots, these teams playing spoilers. I
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: don't know if you saw that Vverabel interview Chad. Someone
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: asked them about tanking and the look of disgust and
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: rage that filled him where it's like, this is like
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: a real football guy. He talked about it like losing
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: is the worst feeling ever. If you're a true competitor,
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: it eats at you. Losing it really does eat away
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: at you. And he just like the look on his face.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: Because it sucks to lose, Gentry, It fucking sucks. Losing awful.
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: That's why I want to win. Because you don't sleep.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: You want to win for the players at Buster Tail.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: That's it.
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: It's I love Rabel so much. I'm so happy that
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: we both are on the side. Even though it's the
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: public dog. It's just I love Tennessee.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: I think it's moved now from five and a half
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: a lot of books out of four and a half.
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: I don't care that it's a public dog. I love Tennessee. Again,
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: we really didn't touch much on I still don't know
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: how I really feel about it because it's so chalky.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: But talk to some really smart guys who love Detroit
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: Lions this week. They love them in this spot and
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: it's hard for me to get there, but maybe you
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: can convince me to go in Detroit. But I really
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: didn't have much opinion on that one. I know Nick
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: Mullens is now the quarterback for the Vikings, but still
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: didn't really have much of opinion on.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: That made me like the Vikings more.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and you've got three and a half now, so
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: that's when we'll definitely talk about again. We both liked Atlanta.
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: They moved from three to three and a half, which
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: made me a little scared, and a couple of their pros.
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: I talked a little scared because they love Atlanta as well.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: We all thought this was going to go to two
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: and a half. Now it's up to three and a half,
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: which usually is an ideal if you're being a dog,
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: because that means some smart money is coming on the
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: Saints as a favorite and they need Atlanta money.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Pretty interesting numbers moved to where it has.
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, another public dog we like. Talk to some pros
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: who love green Bay. They love green Bay in the
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: spot really yeah, and I can't get there with them though.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: I just disagree with it. And it's the same thing
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: as last week.
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: I knew some really big time pros who came in
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: very heavy on Atlanta last week against the Bears. They
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: moved the number from three to two and a half,
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: and they were dead wrong. Like Atlanta was never in
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: that game for real against the Bears. I just think
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: people haven't adjusted to this Bears team and how much
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: better they've been down down the stretch here, Like that's
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: just how football is. It's such a momentum sport. It
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: reminds me a lot of Detroit last year. Detroit started
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: off really slow and then absolutely took off the end
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: of the season, and they carried it to this season.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: I think that's what Bears fans are assuming lapping this year.
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: It's like, how do we go against this momentum? Like
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: I just I just totally disagree with the play on
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: green Bay. But I get where they're coming from. I
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: understand that the Bears were buying a little high, right,
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: like this is this is the peak value they've had
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: all season. If you go through their schedule, like every
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: every week, it's kind of been building towards this, this
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: team and this number. And you know, say they hadn't
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: won the last two weeks like they had, this probably
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: would be four four and a half. That's how well
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: Green Bay's been playing. But yeah, I just I just
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: totally disagree with them. It was a lot of back
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: and forth. I disagree with that one and then the
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: last one the game. Everyone wants to talk about a game,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: We're gonna be talking about a lot this Dolphins Miami game.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: The pros love the Dolphins. Like if you go through
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: all the splits, the stats, I wish Evyan was here,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: but I don't think Josh Allen's covered or won a
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: night game and like five or six straight like ats
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: like he's just struggled at night.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: For some reason.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: This Spills team has the Dolphins. I believe there are
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: seven and one straight up at home this season. Like
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: I totally get the pros and all the stats that
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: are thrown at me about why you want to back
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: Miami a spot, but the injuries, Like I just can't
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: get over the injuries they've had and how big of
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: a deal it is that Wattle is banked up, most
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: arts banked up, And I don't know, it's just a
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: game that we're definitely gonna dive into.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: But uh, they didn't push me off my stands.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: I just I want to I want to back the
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: Bills like I wanted to get there on Miami. It's
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: just I can't do it. It's just the whole scenario
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: of this. It just feels like this is a Bill's win.
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: But even though I am backing the Bills, I told
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: we're gonna talk about hedging. But like the dream scenario
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: is here. People, we got a great number on the
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: Bills to win the division. Now we get Miami at
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: home as a dog. It's just such an easy hedch
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: taking the plus three. If you're figuring out Trunt, know
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: what to do. But I again, it's the final week
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: of the season, so there's gonna be a lot of disagreement.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: I was shocked about how much the pro always love
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: the home teams this week.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: But maybe you know Evan has some stats about that.
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: But I didn't realize that I love so many road
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: teams this week until really talking to a lot of guys.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: I was like, wow, I do love a lot of
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: road teams this week. So a lot of disagreement people.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: A couple things about that. Number one, Evan did give
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: us the stat earlier this week about road teams and
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: the fact that in this scenario, home teams in the
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: division since two thousand and fifteen are only covering or
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: cover at a forty seven percent clip. So you want
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: to be on the road team in this case, I
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: will tell you that. Also, we're going to talk about
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: some other stats that Stucky noted. The sweet spot might
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: be finding the road team that is out of the playoffs,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: because Stucky has a great stat that I want to
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: get to year, which is hold on before let me
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: remind everybody. Let me remind everybody. You can catch every
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites live on YouTube for those enjoying
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. Don't forget to give us a like and
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network you tube page. Okay from Stucky,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: it's a great stat Since nineteen ninety, eliminated teams that
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: are playing teams that need to win over the final
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: two weeks of the regular season are sixty one percent
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: against the spread this week. The eliminated teams that fit
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: this trend the Panthers, who we like, the Titans, who
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: we like, the Bears who we like. Also the Cardinals
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: who you don't like. I'm agnostic, but that's number one.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: That's number one. So then think about this like, we'd
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: want to back at least the Bears in this scenario
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: because they are the team that fits that then diagram
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: of road team that is eliminated against the home team
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: that has something to play for. Right, we love the Bears.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: We're going to dig deeper into that number one. Number two,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I just want to say one thing about the Ravens
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: being a public dog, because it is worth noting. Like Tomlin,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: this is when you fade Tomlin. Tomlin is a favorite
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: fifteen and twenty six against the spread thirty seven percent.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Talin is a favorite of a field goal and more
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: coming off a win just forty percent. On the road
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: is a field goal or more coming off a win
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. So this feels like the letdown spot
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: in which you want to fade. Mike Tomlin, I'm gonna.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Cut you off because I laugh at that all the time.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: All Right, we're going to dig into all this. It's funny.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I actually didn't even put the Colts and the Texans,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: the Bills and the Dolphins in our script because I
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: didn't think we'd find any agreement on the Colts and
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the Texans, so it wasn't. And I don't want to
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: bet the Colt. I don't want to bet the Texans
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: now as a favorite, and I don't want to bet
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the Colts as a short dog. So to me, that
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: game is a board that's like they're a one point
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: home dog.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: Go go to the action app, Chad your favorite thing,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Go click on that Indie Houston game, scroll down, and
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: then tell me what the splits are. Let me know
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: what the handle is, let me know what the money percentages.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: Let's see how this makes you feel.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Well, I can't do it right now because I got
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: to read some more promos.
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: Well, let me hit you with a Chad, why don't
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: we do it when we get to the game.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: I'm a company man talking about this Houston Colts game.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: It is the bets.
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: Ninety six percent of the money are on the road
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: favorite Houston Texans, So hopefully that convinces people here. You
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: just long term Houston Texans is a sucker bet, and
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: I'm with Chad. If you got it as a dog,
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: you got a good number, no worries. But if you're
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: trying to bet this right now minus one and a half,
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: it's a bad bet. It's just a long term loser
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: bet and a road favorite in the divisional game.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Simon, this is why people want to come see us live,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: and we have a other live show that we get
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: to promote. We're doing it again January fourteenth, Wild Card Sunday.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: It's a holiday weekend, folks, so you can come out.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Come out to the Bar Shepherd and the Knucklehead, Hoboken,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, doors open at four live show at seven thirty.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Free entry, free drinks, free hanging with me and Simon.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Then you're going to watch the live show at seven
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: thirty that night. It's fantastic RSVP. In the description for
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: this show, and the YouTube page. Also a watch party Saturday,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: January thirteenth, same location, Me Kerner, Stuckey, Raybond, the Whole
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Gang four pm January thirteenth, RSVP for that as well.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: An It's a wild Card Action weekend with our friends
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: at bet three six five, free entry, free drinks for
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: all of it. Come hang with all of us throughout
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: the entire weekend. All right, let's start narrowing down these picks.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: We got to get to Foxhole, we got to get
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: to big Balls. We got a lot of other things
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: to do. It's interesting to me all the games that
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: we love are getting the majority of the money right now,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: so it's going to be hard to find a foxhole
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: when everything we like is everything that everybody else likes.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay A Carolina Carolina is now four and a
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: half point dog. We liked it at five and a half.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: We're sorry we're making people pick Carolina again. I still
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: like Carolina in this spot. We have a lot of
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: good intel in our favor, including the stat I just
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: read above from Stuckey. We are fading Baker, who is
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: terrible as a favorite of more than a field goal
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. Todd Bowles is just as bad. The
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: luck rankings are on our side, Carolina the least lucky
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: team in the NFL Tampa Bay top five. Like, it's
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: very possible this could be a big balls or foxhole.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I don't think it needs to be because we've done
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: this to so many people, so many times. But I
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: still think Carolina to me is in consideration for our
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: final five.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, probably one of the grossest bets you'll make this week.
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: I totally understand people hate it. The pushback our loyal
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: listeners let us know where two and five this season,
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: making them one of our fave fives.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: Which is just so typical of this show.
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: We've just been trying to catch whatever a falling knife
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: in this bat falling knife that is the Carolina Panthers,
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: who are just terrible and the coaching is terrible. Bryce
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: Young is terrible. I hate it, but like Chad just said,
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: it's just we keep playing the numbers. We keep getting
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: sucked in and can't avoid it.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: Like I liked it at five and a half, I
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: still like it at four and a half. It's those
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: three and a half three I probably could be caught,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: like talk to flipping to the.
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: Bucks, But at this number. I just gave you all
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: the stats. It's like, we have to play this long term.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: This is if you've been playing these numbers, you've been fading.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: Baker is a big favorite. You just have to keep
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: riding that trend. And this is a trend will ride
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: and you know, I didn't even know those trends back
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: this as hard as they did, but it's just a
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: great spot to take them. So yeah, people in the
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: chats and are not betting Carolina. I get it, but
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: this is.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: A bet I have to make.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: And Chad kind of understands that where it's like we
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: bet a certain way and this is part of it.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: Like we just have to say consistent because we know
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: a long term it's a winner. And here we are
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty fourth talking Carolina.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Are we talking about Carolina.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: In the last week of it? It's the last week until.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Next year, in which case we realize, oh my god,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: all of the edge is going to be on Carolina
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: because everyone wants to fade him. So I guarantee the
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: first three weeks of twenty twenty four, no matter the number,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: we are going to be betting on Carolina. I can
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: already see it.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: We'll see I'm not we I thought we had done well.
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: I didn't realize we were that bad in the Phase five.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, me too.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: I basically we pretty much avoided them.
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: The only time I would let us play them in
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: the contest was when it was Andy Dalton, which I
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: think they lost that Seattle game. But yeah, the just Carolina,
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: between the coach and everything like that. It's just been
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: a total train wreck of a season where next year,
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: you know, you could be like, well, they'll bring on
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: the right coach. Maybe that's why, I mean, you will
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: back them and fix it. It's like, I don't know
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: if they can make a one year fix, like this
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: team has so many issues, such bad ownership. I'll try
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: to keep a mental note Chad, not to let us
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: get sucked in on Carolina next year.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Don't let us do it. We need a team to
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: remind us not to do it. Minnesota at Detroit. You
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: brought it up in sharp calls. We liked Minnesota. It
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: was at five and a half, and then it got
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: beat down. Yeah it's at three and a half. I
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: actually like Minnesota more now than I did earlier in
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the week. Knowing Nick Mullins will be the starter. I
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: think it plays in our favor here. He did blow
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: up this defense and it's a very bad defense against
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the pass. And I don't know as much as people
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: will believe in Dan Campbell playing to the hilt, could
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: he pull starters in the second half? You know, is
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: there that much to play for? This has a big
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: balls feel to me.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say the fear is, you know, I
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: talk to some wise guys, they like Detroit in this spot.
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: Detroit historically has actually been pretty profitable betting as a
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: home favorite, even when they're getting all the public money.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: Is this the game where the Lions just beat the
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: Vikings by thirty because they're so pissed off at the
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: NFL and this has just been a week of raging
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: for that Lions team.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: That's the fear, right. We have Campbell.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you've heard his radio hits this week.
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: He's just been amazing. I mean, easily one of my
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: favorite coaches in the league. Where it's just like he
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: cuts through the bullshit. He's on a radio interview and
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: the guy's like trying to talk around going him going
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: for two from the seven, and Cambell's like, say, what
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: you're trying to say.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: Like when you got the penalty, you move it too.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Say it both of you what say it? Say what
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: you want to say. I think from the seven it's
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: a low percentage play. I think your chances of winning
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: are lower than if you kick the extra pro Like
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: you would say it to anybody else. I'm on the radio,
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: say it. I thought it was a reckless decision. Thank you, okay,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: but you don't regret it.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: No, And I just love that where it's like he
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: just holds everyone accountable. You know, that's what guys want
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: to see from their head coach being Chad, we're gonna
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: step in front of We're gonna We're gonna back the Vikings,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: Like Chad said, I like the Vikings already. I was
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: hoping it would get back to three and a half.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: We know for a fact that Campbell said the starters
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: will play because you know, they have a one in
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: one thousand chants of Dallas and the Eagles both losing
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: and they could still get that two seed. I guess
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: that's the reason why they are playing the starters and
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: why this number has gone back up.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: But Chad just said it.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: It's like we can't avoid these kind of games. I
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: know it's tough and it's brutal, but you kind of
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: got to hold your nose here and take the three
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: and a half and just better on the team's trying
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: to play spoiler. It's we already give you guys the
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: stats like this is a good week the spoilers, and
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: that obviously goes up even more so when the team
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: is a dog on the road. Right, is now what
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: Evan's staff says. Yep, yeah, Vikings. It's the key number now,
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: three and a half. So do you want to make
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: a big balls? Do you want to make a fox
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: or what are you thinking?
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Big ball? Better than we care? With the Nick Mullins
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: and the Minnesota Vikings on the road against a pissed
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: off kneecap biiton Detroit Lions team, Simon, this is hitting
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the vent diagram. This is the team that's out of
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: contention essentially against the team that kind of has nothing
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: left to play for. They're on the road. This is it,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: This is it. I don't tell you we're going with
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. It hurts, you know, we're gonna do it.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do it Jacksonville, Tennessee. So this was your
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Simon says, still like it to five and a half.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Could it be Raabel's last game? Could it be Dereck
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Henry's last game? The Jags weapons in the passing game
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: are all banged up. The Titans this season four and
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: three in home games this year. Their losses are to
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: two playoff teams or teams in playoff contention over time,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: and a last second lost to Seattle. You've said it
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: all season long. Vrabel as a dog at home is
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: when you want to back them. Twenty four, twelve and
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: two is a dog of at least a field goal
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: in his career. That's why you made it. Simon says,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: we're taking the Titans. They'll be in our final five.
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, I got a little bit of pushback
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: and fans about, yeah, it's not like he's been automatic
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: at home as a dog. But if you go back
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: and look, a lot of those dog numbers that we
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: lost in the contest was at two and a half,
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: and a lot of you pushed because most of those
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: books were at three. We're not getting the crappy two
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: and a half here, right, We're getting the five and
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: a half. Like Chad just said, So, what are we
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: supposed to do people we have to take this number
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: like this is way too big. Chad just told you
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: the the Jaguars are banged up. They got a bunch
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: of injuries.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: They just blew out the Panthers. That should be even
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: more of a reason for you guys to want to
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: back this team. It's like they're not as good as
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: they looked last week. Right, They're not that team this year.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: They've they've struggled in most games. I expect them to
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: struggle here against a divisional foe that we just talked about.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: They're pissed off.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: Tennessee Titans are mad and they're gonna be mad all week,
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: and I think they're going to take it out on
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: this Jaguars team in this final game. Where you know,
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence I earned a ton of respect for me
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: about how tough the kid is, like the injuries, he's
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: dealt with the fact that he's coming back now a
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: week later to play incredibly tough, like a guy who
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: needs help getting out of bed in the morning, which
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: is crazy because he's whatever twenty five, twenty four years
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: He's willing to go out there in this game because
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: he knows this is for them to win the division,
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: like back to back years winning the division for the Jaguars, Like,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: come on, that's that's insane. So respect for him being
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: the tough guy going out there doing this, but this
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: is putting this team a disadvantage, like.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: A guy is playing wounded. The Titans know that, Like.
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: This is just it's just all there to take the
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: Titians here team. So I don't care if it's a
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: very public dog. I'm all this this Titans team at
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: the five.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: And a half, it'll be in the final five. It
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: just has to be. Here's another stat. Here's a good stat.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: You want to bet dogs in low total games, which
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: this is NFL underdogs in games with totals below forty
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: to fifty nine percent against spread since eighteen. In Week eighteen.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: That includes Tennessee, that includes Baltimore, that includes the Jets,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: the Falcons, who we're going to talk about next, the Panthers,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: who we've already talked about so much the chat is enraged,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the Giants, who we already liked, Kansas City, Cleveland will skip,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: and Denver, who is a late breaking entrant into the conversation.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: So it's a nice trend back in a lot of
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the ideas that we already had. Let's talk about Atlanta
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Falcons three point dogs at New Orleans. You could have
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: gotten them at three and a half. Look, this is
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: to me, it's a fade of Dennis Allen and Derek
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Carr right as favorites. It's also Arthur Smith coaching for
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: his job. Very small chance if the Bucks lose to
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the Panthers and Atlanta beats New Orleans, Atlanta wins the division.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: And this also plays into the Falcons' strengths. Arthur Smith
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: is going to make this a running game. He's got
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: to put the ball in the hands of his best
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: weapons against a Saints defense against the run that is
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: just not very good. So to me, this will ultimately
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: be about what is the number in the contest? Is
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: it going to be a two and a half? Is
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: it going to be a three and a half? But fuck,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: do you want to not bet on Derek Carr and
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Dennis Allen in this spot?
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: I think I saw a staff from Evan. Dennis Allen
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: is four and sixteen against the spread after a straight
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: up win. So just an absolute train wreck of a coach.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Bade Fade, Bade, we knew we wanted to be in Atlanta.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: Like the fear for me was just the fact that
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I just couldn't believe there was prosen in their side
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: that I couldn't believe it where It's something that I
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: had to go to rehab this season. Get off the
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: Derek Carr, I get it. It's toxic. He'll have these
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: moments we will suck in. You think he's a good coach,
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: he is not like Dennis Allen, bad coach. Derek Carr
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: incredible between the twenties. We know his struggles. His struggles
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: are in the red zone. Jad just nailed it. Like
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: it's just whoever the.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: Dog was going to be here.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: If the Saints were a dog, we would have backed them.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: If Atlanta is the dog, we would back them. It's
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: just both these teams don't deserve respect, it being more
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: than a field goal favorite.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: And that's the damn truth. So yeah, like.
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: I loved fading Atlanta off a win. We're in the
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: perfect scenario of them having such a bad law us
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: on the road in Chicago now coming down here to
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: play this game. Like it's all setting up for this
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: Atlanta team to steal this division.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: The part they needed. The Panthers beating the Bucks though.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: That's probably my favorite part of it.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: The Panthers first team, I believe in NFL history or
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: something crazy like this, that have not led the entire
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: season in the fourth quarter. So they've gone a whole season,
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: they have not led once in the fourth quarter, but
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: they have what two wins because they want it both
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: as time expired on field goal.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Just just incredibly incredible. How terrible that Panthers team historically bad?
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Panthers will be by the way Panthers will be
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: for money, Yeah yeah right. Derek Carr, in his tenth
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: year as an NFL starter, is dreadful against the spread
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: as a favorite. This season, He's two eight and one
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: as a favorite, and I think we lost both those
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: games because we just kept betting against Derek Carr as
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: a favorite.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: He is.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: I finished above five hundred against the spread since the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: end of the twenty sixteen season before Donald Trump's inauguration. Damn,
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: how well you like that?
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: That was his MVP season too, right?
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: That was just like that the Brokes wagon let yeah, insane.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So Chad just said you with it.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: It's like, if you're riding these bets and these trends
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: with us that we know are long term winners. Come on, people,
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: we gave you another winning season. Keep riding with us,
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: like you got to ride these ugly dogs here, bet Atlanta,
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: shop around.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: You can still find three and a half's out there.
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: Like Chad said, if it's two and a half in
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: our contest, I'm with you, like I wouldn't take that,
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: like that's such a shit number. But if you can
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: shop around right now and find the three three and
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: a half, you gotta take Atlanta here.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Speaking of ugly dogs, the Philadelphia Eagles are on the
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: road at the New York Football Giants, and the Giants
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: are five point dogs. We liked it a lot on
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Tuesday when it was five and a half. We still
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: like it at five. I think it's a very tricky
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: spot for the Eagles. They will know their fate for
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: the playoffs pretty much by the time this game kicks off,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: because the Cowboys are in the one o'clock game is
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: two touchdown favorites against the Commanders, So it will impact
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: I think how the Eagles play this game, will their
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: starters play, will they pull their starters quickly? How will
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: they approach this game mentally? Also, the team is a
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: freaking mess right now. Aj Brown drama, coaching, drama, play calling, drama. Schematically,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: the Giants will blitz like crazy, which has been a
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: terrible achilles heel for the Eagles this year. We both
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: like Tyrod Taylor. He's a gamer. Matt Mitchell was saying
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: to me earlier, Tyrod Taylor is the is the nineteen
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: of Blackjack cans. You feel good about it. You don't
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: know if you can win, it's kind of boring, but
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: you feel like you got a shot that I think
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: that's a great way to describe hi Rod Taylor.
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's just he's like Minshew right, Like you
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: don't think you're gonna win the game. We don't think
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: you're totally gonna lose it. It's like these these backups
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: that they can come in and it's like, you know,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: this isn't totally a lost cause. And even last week
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: with him, like I felt confidence in Taylor against the
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: Rams because he is such a gamer, like I talked about,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: like he just consistently will put his team in the
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: best position, doesn't matter if he's down ten points or
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: up seven points.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Like he's just cool in calm, even keel. I mean,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: people our young listeners don't remember, but the Bills basically
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: sucked for ten fifteen years and incomes Taylor and Lashawn
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: McCoy and they made it work.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: They got the Bills to the playoffs during that Tom
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: Brady era. Like he's just a game one of the
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: best game managers we've had in football, where it's like
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: he's not gonna do this crazy stuff and shock you
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: and win these games like Lamar, but he's not gonna
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: burn you. And that's what I love about him so much.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: So my only negative here is that we should be
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: catching seven. But the books and the public have caught up.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: They're so off this Eagles team now that we're not
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: getting great value right, Like this number is at five
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: four and a half and a lot of books it's
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: where it should be.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: But I'm still a believer that still the Eagles team's
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: still overvalued.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: Like our guy Nick Giffin, like talking about luck rankings,
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: he's shipped on the Eagles for I feel like two months. Yeah,
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: and he kind of knew, like he knew how lucky
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: this team was getting and how it was going to
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: catch up to him eventually. And I think if I
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: go back and look at our contest. I think we've
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: had four straight weeks now chadaw just betting against the Eagles,
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: which has been amazing. Like every week, it's not in doubt,
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: we're covering, we're winning outright on freaking twelve point dogs
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: on the road in Philly. It's just been a great
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: ride as someone that loves the Eagles but knows this
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: team is broken and they've been broken, and we've been
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: making good money off of it, and I just I
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: can't hop off the train yet, Like I think the
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: numbers too big. Maybe in the playoffs the numbers will
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: come around and we'll get value on this Eagles team,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: but right now, still still overvalued. So I know the
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: Eagles have had the Giants number, and Chad just broke
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: it down to me why it's giving me confidence though.
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: If the Cowboys win, if Detroit win, or whatever happens,
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: it's like the Eagles might not be playing for anything.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Maybe they'll have Hurts play in the first quarter or
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: something like that. But he's banged up. A lot of
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: guys are banged up. They should want to rest these
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: guys in this game. Like you know, Kelsey's been banged up,
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: they take him out, they take Lane Johnson out. Now
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: we have their whole backups starting on that O line
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: against a Giants team that Chad just talked about.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: They love the Blitz. Now Mariota is the quarterback of
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: the Eagles as well, So now you have a backup
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: offensive line and Mariota as a five point favorite.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: Come on, like, we got to take daily here. We're
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: gonna play them in the contest as well. It's still
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: five and a half. I'm seen at a couple of
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: books seeing five at our book, maybe four and a
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: half in contest, No worries, I'd still take that number.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that to me feels like along with Tennessee, like
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: that's just a we're gonna want to be in that
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: position no matter what happens. Like, the second half of
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: that game is how that game is going to be
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: won or lost. And I would rather have the Giants
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: in the second half of that game than the Eagles,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: who have nothing left to play for and will by
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: then we'll certainly know their fate against the Cowboys. All right, Chicago,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Green Bay? How are we not taking the Bears here?
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: I don't care what anybody's saying. I don't care what
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: any wise guy chatter there is this is We've been
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: in this spot with the Bears, and you and I
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: are completely aligned. They are not ranking this game, this
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: team properly right now. There are seven to five in
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: the last twelve games. In the same way that you're
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: talking about. What is Mike Vrabel saying and how does
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: he feel about tanking? I have been reading everything I
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: can read about the Chicago Bears because look, the story
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: about Justin Fields is the most interesting story for the
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: NFL right now. Will he stay? Will they ship him out?
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: What will they do with the number one pick? Will
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: it be Caleb Williams. Everybody's gotten opinion, Every expert has
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: an opinion. This team likes Justin Fields. They were excited
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: when the crowd was chanting we won Fields. They will
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: play for Justin Fields this week. They will play to
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: finish the season with as good a record as they
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: can possibly have. This defense has just gotten better and
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: better and better, and it matches up well against Jordan Love.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: So to me, the Packers defense is truly dreadful. Since
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: they beat the Chiefs with some help from the refs
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: on that Monday night football game, what have they done?
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: They gave up? They lost to Tommy Devido and the Giants.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: They lost to Baker Mayfield in the box and made
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: him look like the MVP. They gave him thirty points
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: to Bryce Young. The Panthers hadn't scored more than twenty
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: one points since October fifteenth. Like take the Bears. This
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: was my exact decision.
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: Take the Bears, and just real quick, a little housekeeping.
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: We said the Eagles and the Cowboys play at different times.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: They do play at the same time, but it still
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: stands where if Dallas is up twenty four to three
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: at halftime, I still think the Eagles will pull starters
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: in the second half, so nothing changes there.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: How did I read that wrong? I thought they were
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: one too.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: They must have. They must have adjusted it because I
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: almost was positive Eagles playing.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: I was positive, like even in I think on our
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: website they have it as one and four.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: But Matt let me know in the chat, so I
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: trust my our producer, Fine the Bears first part.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: I get them the Bears.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: I'll give the Packers and Jordan loves some flowers. The
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: Packers are one of four teams with zero Pro Bowlers.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: They had zero Pro Bowlers and Jordan Love in his
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: first season threw for thirty touchdowns and has them in
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: a position to make the playoff. It's just it's incredible,
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Like I really can't wrap my head around it.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Where it's like in a.
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: Year where there are no real MVPs, it's I mean,
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: Jordan Love should have got a little bit more love
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: talking about MVP where he has zero Pro bowlers and
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: he has his team in a position to make the
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: playoffs in his first year as a starter, Like that's
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, you really can't wrap your head around if
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: you know how hard it is to be a quarterback
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: in this league and how hard is to win games
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: in this league. It's like, wow, Jordan Love first season,
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: that's that's incredible to do with no talent and the
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: coaching too, Lafloor all of them deserve such flowers here.
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: But Chad's right, like, sorry to shit on you guys,
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: Packers fans, but the Bears have more talent, they have
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: all the momentum. Their defense is playing so much better
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: than the Packers defense have ever played this season at
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: this point, like it's just all pointing to it. The
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: only fear is, you guys have been the Packers' little
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: brother for so long and I went back, I watched
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: that Week one film.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: I know things have changed. Obviously, your defense is better.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: They every guy that caught balls in that game against
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: the Bears was wide open, Like you guys had no
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: one covering anyone in that game. It was probably one
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: of the worst games the Bears played all season.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: Right that that was JV football that way, I remember
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: talking about that on the podcast That was JV Defense.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: It was embarrassing. But they have gotten so much better side.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: It's it's a different season almost, it is.
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: And if you just go back and watch the last
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: couple of weeks, you would never know that's the same
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: Bears defense where you know their cornerbacks are actually pressing
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: guys of the line. They're not running the stupid zone
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: where three guys go with the same guy in the
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: middle of the field and they're like they're leaving Washington
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: on one on one and no coverage on the outside.
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: Like it's all been fixed. It feels like for this
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: Bears team, so totally new team. The number doesn't reflect it.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: We already talked about this is one of the more
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: public dogs of the week, this Bears team. But yeah,
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: it's right, Like I don't care I'm not gonna let
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: that scare me off. I think the books have been wrong.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: They haven't.
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: They haven't caught up to this Bears team will take
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: their value. The only thing that sucks is probably gonna
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: be two and a half in our contest. But that's
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: the deal we make with the devil here, so we
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: don't care about pushes. We'll take the two and a half.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I I this will be another one that's
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: in our money line underdog. Oh yeah, round robin. Two
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: more games I want to discuss I get maybe three,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: but real quickly, I want to touch on Denver at
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, because we talked about it on Tuesday. Yeah,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: I really like Denver if you can get him at three,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: and they're at two and a half at bet three
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: sixty five, but they are at three just about everywhere else,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: and it's moved in the past twenty four hours. I
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: bet Denver plus three. It could sneak into depending on
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: the numbers for other games, our final five, but more
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: iorant currently it could be a foxhole only because it's
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: the biggest discrepancy of tickets for any game that we
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: have talked about today. Every game we're talking about today
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: unless we're gonna go in on Buffalo, which is interesting,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: but this could be a Foxhole game. That's that's the
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: real reason why I wanted to bring it up.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: I've tried to get on the side here.
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: I was like chat, I did like denver first plan,
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: especially you know now they're up to plus three, but
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: I just I don't know what to deal with it,
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: Like this game. I've been trying to figure out what
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: to deal with it, but it's like I don't really
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: have a good read on either of these quarterbacks.
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: A man and this number.
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: This game, it's gonna cost to me probably low six
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: figures whoever wins this game, because I am heavy on
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: the under of the Raiders, and if they hit, they
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: win this game, they go over. I'm heavy on Denver
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: over wins, which they need to win this game to
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: go over. So oh man, I can't separate that. I'm
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: very emotionally money wise invested in this game. I hope
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: Chad's right because I need I need Denver to win
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: this game for a lot of money.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: But I'm too close to him, too biased to it.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Where I everything, I every every little thing I look at,
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: it's make How do you not love Denver in this spot. Yeah,
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: They're just the Raiders have been incredibly lucky, and I
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: know people are gonna throw those defensive stats in our faces,
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: like how well they've played since Piers stuck over, But
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: go back and look at the quarterbacks they played in
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: those games, and how fluky a lot of those numbers are.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: So the Bears, I am by like the Bears, I
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: can go back and I can actually see what they're
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: doing different the Raiders. It just feels like it's been
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: really fluky and they've had a lot of luck. So
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: I'm right there with you, Chad. Just the fear is
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: it'll be once again, it'll be two and a half
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: in our contest where me and you both want the
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: three three and a half.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: All right, well, let's talk about Miami Buffalo and we'll
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: choose Foxhole, because, yeah, I know everything you were saying
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: about Miami is true, and that the wise guys are
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: going to be on the Dolphins at plus three, and
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: that the Dolphins at home are a different team, and
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: the last time the Dolphins and Bills played in Miami,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins won. That was to start the
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: season in twenty twenty two. I think there's a lot
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: of bad juju with the Dolphins right now. Their defense
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: is injured, They're missing some of their best players. The
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill situation emotionally, a huge fire at his house
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: that is a scary thing because some of his family
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: was home. He's playing injured. Jalen Wattle has been playing injured.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of issues here. The Buffalo Bills might
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: be the best team in the NFL right now.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the fear.
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: Though the bill should easily roll like this just feels
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: like a game they should dominate, especially coming off such
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: a bad game last week. I just I can't see
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: them having back to back such poors weeks. This Bills team,
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: it's crazy right now. If you look, they have the
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: third best Super Bowl odds, but they might not make
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. Like that's right, I feel like the perfect
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: summary for this Bill's team where they could be the
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: two seed or the out of the playoffs, and you know,
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen not making the Pro Bowl bizarre, Like.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know one of this.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Obviously, I would love for it to happen. But if
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: you're someone like me who bet him for MVP, it's
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: not dead. Like I know everyone thinks Lamar has won
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: it and it's locked up. But people are huge into
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: numbers and stats, and when you put their stats on
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: paper next to each other, it's like, you know, Lamar
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: has had a great season, but it's not comparable to
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: someone like Josh Allen, who has what fifteen rushing touchdowns.
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: He's one way from tying OJ's record for most rushing
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: touchdowns and Bill's history. He's just had such an incredible year.
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: What's killed him as the turnovers, and that's why maybe
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: he didn't make the Pro Bowl because of all the turnovers.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, you know.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Someone that's bet him MVP.
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: The scenario is there, if we get a game that's
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: close and he can rush for two touchdowns, break OJ's record,
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: throw for three touchdowns and one of them is a
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: game winning drive, I think he could still steal this MVP.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: Like he's got the you'll have the two seed at
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: that point. It would be an incredible story of this
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: team as one whatever it was, five or six straight
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: to end the season to get them into the playoffs.
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: Like we just said it, they couldn't afford to lose
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: a game down the stretch here. You know, their last
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: loss was a flukey loss that Eagles team, and they've
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: just been a juggernaut down here. Like even against that
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: Patriots game they played so bad, so sloppy, they won.
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: Like it's just a team that knows how to win
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: these really close, ugly games. And that's why the Bills
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: are the third best odds to win the Super Bowl.
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: It's like I have even though Josh Allen's never done
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: it and he keeps falling short in the playoffs, I
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: still have more fai in him that I do in Lamar,
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: especially at that price point. Like I'd rather pay the
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: number on the Bills, and I would at Lamar at
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: his price point for the Super Bowl.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: So it's a long.
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: Winded answer to say I love the Bills here. I
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: love them so much. I love them at this number.
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: It just doesn't feel like this is going to be
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: a close one. Where like maybe that's my own issue,
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: where it's like all the games the Bills play are close.
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: They don't really blow teams out this year, just because
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: they've had the turnovers.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: From Josh Allen and everything like that. But see I
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: just said it.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: I don't think enough's being priced into the injuries to
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: Miami's offense and injuries to Miami's defense. They're just not
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: the same team they were even five weeks ago from
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: all these injuries they've had. So man, I can't believe
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: I'm doing it because it's so chalky, but I do.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I love the Bills in the spot.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Well. That's why I didn't pull the trader on Denver
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: as the foxhole, because I feel like knowing what we
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: know about where the professionals lean right now, even though
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is chalky. If we're talking about foxhole against the professionals,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Buffalo feels like the foxhole.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: All right, let's make up the fox little brother.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills are our foxhole. And I also had an
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: alternative reason for doing this, which is when I look
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: at our lineup of likely games, it's all underdogs and
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: it feels weird to me that we wouldn't have a
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: favorite in there, and Buffalo feels like the favorite that
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: fits the scenario most likely to cover.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: I'll throw two favorites. How you see how you feel
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: about them?
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: Okay, how are you feeling about taking stick in the
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: Chargers minus three and a half at home against the
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: Chiefs and their backups?
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: No real feel for it, No, real feel. My feeling
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: is neutral to negative.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: I like the Chargers there just because they have been
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: playing with the backups last couple of weeks. They looked
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: so bad against this Denver team that I just it
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: feels like the public is totally out on them, where.
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: You probably get a.
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: Nice price point on them if you're getting minus three
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: minus three and a half. He'd open our chat that
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: there's a chance that Bosa and Keen Allen would play.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: That would be so stupid at that.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: You know, slim chance that Keenan Allen and Bosa play.
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that would be so dumb if they actually did it.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: But you know they're competitive football guys, right. All these
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: stats do matter, especially guys like Keen Allen and Bosa,
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: who you know, they're definitely playing for a championship. They're
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: just playing for their own stats at this point. UH
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: like them, but totally get a way you're off of it.
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: What about Cincinnati Bengals against his Browns team? Just six
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: and a half point favorite.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: It feels like such a big number.
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: That's why you should want to back it though, right?
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Do I like that better than the Bills? That's the thing,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: like I feel, I feel I feel so much more
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: confident about the Buffalo Bills covering a short number as
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: road favorites, as crazy as that sounds, than I do
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: about Cincinnati as a huge favorite against the Browns. I
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: don't know why I feel that way. I like, the
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Browns have a lot to play for here. They can
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: finish the year with a winning record, sinnat that matters.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals can. It's InTru I just
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: hadn't really thought about it, to be honest.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: Well, so I'm heavy on the charters. I'm heavy into
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: the Bengals, like I bet both these ones.
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: Obviously, I feel like, you know, I got a great
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: number on since you because it was six and now
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: at seven. But I'm not really still worried about the seven.
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: I just think the Browns have been a different team
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: on the road this season, and now you're factoring that
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: they really aren't really playing for anything, right. The Browns
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: are sitting all their starters, they're sitting Flack or they're
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: sitting everyone. So now that means they're playing a fourth
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: or fifth stringer quarterback. It's the Cincinnati team that I mean,
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: They've played really well here down the stretch. I know
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: they've had a bunch of injuries to their defense.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: That's my only real pause here where it's like, even
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: against a fourth or fifth stringer, we might still get
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: back doored here, which I can already just sense you
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: being like, why the hell did we back the Bengals
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: as a seven point favorite? But I feel like they're
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: trying to scare us off with such a big number,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: and I'm trying not to let it scare them out
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: where it's like since he's good, like their backups, good
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: like they want which I just said, they want to
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: finish with a winning record, and this Browns team is
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: just they're not playing for anything here. So I'm a
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: little shocked to see that. At a book I'm looking
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: at right now, it's sixty percent of the handle and
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: seventy five percent of the bets right now are on
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: the Browns as a seven point dog. I'm shocked the
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: public loves them that much.
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: I just thought everyone would be teasing this Bengals team,
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: like all the teasers, all the parlays were tied to them.
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: But I guess everyone's just all in on the Browns team,
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: even though the magic is Joe Flacco and Miles Garrett
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: on defense and those guys aren't playing here like yep,
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: there's just no reason to back the brown So yeah,
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: if you thought those two big one number you want
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: to back to Browns, don't step in this trap.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: Take take Cincinnati at this big number.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Before we get to our money line Underdog Round Robin
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: reminder that the week eighteen contest tiebreaker is total rushing
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: yards on Sunday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Ward writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: link to that article can be found in this episode description.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: If you want to leg up in the contest the
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: last week of the contest, good luck everybody. By the way,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: did we officially did we officially make the bills our foxhole?
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: I just want to be clear, Okay, so the bills
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: are our foxhol Okay, everybody make a note.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: a city.
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: I'm a foxhole guy.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Bills are the foxhole. Let's talk about moneyline Underdog Round
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: rob Been dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: This is how I wrote down. Are you ready? Yeah, Panthers, Yeah, Bears,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: Falcons Okay, Okay than Panthers, Bears, Falcons, Ravens.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate the Ravens.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: It's a little chalky like again usually when I look
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: for these things, me and you want to go away
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: low like Arizona last week. I think like five percent
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: of the bets around Arizona's the money line. The money
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: line is actually very heavy right now for the Ravens.
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: More bets handle and bets right now are on the
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: Ravens money line than Pittsburgh.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Who do you got then if you want to replace,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: who do you want to replace with?
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: Whom you already said Tennessee? Right?
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: Oh, I didn't say the Titans.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, love Titans, So I would have Titans giants. You
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: said the Bears, Bears, Panthers, that's fo Yeah.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: I had the Falcons. I had the Falcons in there.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: Falcons. Yeah, I love that five.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Okay, Titans, Panthers, Bears, Falcons, giants are our money line
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: underdog round, Robin Simon, I want you to make Little Caesars,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: which is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: of your game day. It is Simon or is it Simon?
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Time to increase your intake of Little Caesar's Pizza to
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  Speaker 1: prepare your body for the NFL playoffs. It is time
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  Speaker 1: order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, what do you think about this new
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: motto I invented right here, right now on the fly
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: while we were talking about the Cincinnati Bengals. If into
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, you want your team thrust, be sure to
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: order Crazy Rust. However you order your pizza, you win.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. Don't forget
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live on
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday Thursday Sunday. So if you're watching on YouTube,
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: give us a like subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: All right, you just mentioned you're very heavy on Cincinnati.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Is that one of your biggest bets? What are your
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: biggest bets of the week?
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and biggest bets is all relative here. People like
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: this week I kind of ramp up for playoffs and
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: if there's a big position I can take it.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: I have good insight info.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would hammer that, I would let you guys know,
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: but you know, most of the leaks weren't really that great,
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: right Schefter kind of leaked everything, and we all knew
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: that the quarterbacks we're going to be this week, so
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: there wasn't a crazy amount of value, And a lot
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: of what I need to do now is take positions
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: to hedge out on future bets, which is basically like
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: just setting your position up. And for this week, we're
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: looking at standalone games like my biggest bets. Yeah, for
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: Saturday on the Ravens we already talked about, on the
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: Colts for Sunday games. Yeah, I love Cincy, love the Titans,
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: not Panthers, shockingly, like I bet the Panthers. They're not
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: going to be one of my biggest bets. Love the Giants,
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: like the Chargers. You know, cap it off Bears and Bills,
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: Like I love both of them. I know the Bears
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: is playing a little bit of house money if you've
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: been betting them like we have these last couple of weeks,
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: Like I've just been loading up on them every week
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: just because I just think they're undervalued, and this week
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: nothing's changed.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: I think the three is it's too good of a
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: number to pass on.
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: So yeah, if I was gonna make one of my
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: five bigger bets, the Bears is definitely the top three.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Question from a loyal listener. I am down to the
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: last week in my pick'em contest, down two games from
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: first place. Any strategies for making the ground in the
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: final week the lines locked early in the week, wondering
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: the best way to gain ground and picking five games
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: in the final week. This is always tricky, right, because
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: if you're two games back, you got to make big
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: bets that are countered. This is where game theory becomes everything.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: You go to assume what other people are picking, and
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: you got to run in the opposite direction.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: So much game theory here.
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: Basically want to do is you want to go to
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: that guy you're against who's above you. You want to
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: see what he likes doing on a weekly basis. Say
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: you go to his thing and he's a guy who
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: loves betting the dogs. You kind of want to go
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: with a couple favorites, right. You want to hope you
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: catch him on the other side of your bets because
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: you're if it's winner take all, you have nothing to lose, Like,
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: who cares if you come in second or last place,
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: Like you're trying to get that number one spot. So
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: if you know his his betting style and his habits,
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: and he likes betting dogs, try to have three favorites
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: in there. If you know that he loves betting the favorites,
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: try to have three or four dogs in there. And
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: you're you're hoping you're on the opposite side of him.
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: So you're now forcing it in there. Like you know,
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: we already talked about a game we like in that
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: Bills game. If you know, if you go through his stuff,
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: you know for a fact he's going to be backing Miami.
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: You should put the Bills in. Be a psychopath, go
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: research them, figure out what their betting style is, how
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: they bet every week, and try to counter that. You
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: just got to figure out what his picks are on
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: trying to go against it.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Now, that's the psychopathic about trying to come in first, Simon,
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: That's why we play the game. As a reminder, The
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast is presented by bet three six five bet
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• 56:57
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• 57:05
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right before we get
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: out of here. Normally, this is where we would have
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: our director of research, oft mentioned Evan Abrams, give us
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: some final nuggets to make us smarter than all of
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: our friends. Evan is unavailable today, but he did file
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: his nuggets. They will be read with vim and vigor
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: by producer Matt Mitchell.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: Okay, last but not least, Uncle Mitch, Hello.
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: Thank you, chand I'm sure Evan is either at a
• 57:39
  Speaker 5: doctor's appointment or meeting a contact in a Russian bathhouse
• 57:43
  Speaker 5: of some kind. But I will do my best to
• 57:45
  Speaker 5: fill in some bonus nuggets before I dive into the
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: big three. The first is underdogs AFC North Divisional games
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: total cash cow fifty nine percent against the spread last decade,
• 57:58
  Speaker 5: best of any division, twenty three and twelve against.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: The spread last three years.
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: I believe that is Baltimore and the Browns this week,
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: and a really fun one. Robert Sala has coached eight
• 58:12
  Speaker 5: division road games for the New York Jets. He has
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: lost all eight of those games. Okay, big nugs here.
• 58:19
  Speaker 5: Number one Dan Campbell Covering Machine podcast favorite Dan Campbell
• 58:24
  Speaker 5: is now thirty eight and twenty four against the spread
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: in his head coaching career. That is over sixty one percent.
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: Since nineteen ninety one, hundred and fifteen men have coached
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: fifty or more NFL games. Dan fucking Campbell has the
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: best against the spread win percentage of all of them
• 58:42
  Speaker 5: over the last three years. The Detroit Lions are now
• 58:45
  Speaker 5: sixty eight percent against the spread, the best three year
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: stretch against the spread for any team since the Patriots
• 58:52
  Speaker 5: did this between twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen, when they
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: covered seventy percent of their games.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Viking big Balls bet of the Week. That's why,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: That's why it's the big Balls bet of the Week, Simon.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: I've never been more convinced or confident of our pick.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: We love as Lizzo likes to sing, the Minnesota Vikings.
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: Instead of that drop, I'm gonna put in Dan Campbell
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: saying the word asshole right here.
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: No, there's no way to sugarcoat that. You know I'm
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: an asshole, So okay.
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: Number two the stink of Cliff Kingsbury Lingers. The Arizona
• 59:31
  Speaker 5: Cardinals have struggled versus the NFC West recently. They are
• 59:35
  Speaker 5: one and thirteen against the spread in their last fourteen
• 59:39
  Speaker 5: division games. They haven't won or covered a division home
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: game since November twenty twenty two versus the Rams and
• 59:49
  Speaker 5: finally AFC North dogfight. The Ravens are twenty and four
• 59:55
  Speaker 5: against the spread in their last twenty four games as
• 59:58
  Speaker 5: a dog, including tw and five against the spread since
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 5: twenty eighteen, second best in the NFL in that span,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: behind only the Steelers. And when Mike Tomlin and John
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: Harbaugh meet, the underdog is now twenty three, five and three.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: That's over eighty two percent. Thanks boys. You know what's interesting, Simon.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Normally before this segment, Matt Mitchell would be in the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: chat furiously telling us hurry up, go faster. But now
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: that he's reading the nuggets, they are Shakespearean in tone
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: and length, and we just take our own sweet time.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Go as long as you want, Matt Mitchell. Let's work
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: around your schedule.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 5: Wow.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: Thanks chev Let's go mad to recap the fox O
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Buffalo minus three. We're fucking doing it. This is a
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: this is personal cause. Producers Tito and Matt Mitchell are
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: natives of the Western New York region, Matt Mitchell and
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: South Florida Tito. Tito spends most pre podcast banter talking
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: about the ear surgery he's getting or South Florida sports.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: So we're going with Buffalo, which means we're side with
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and I'm sorry, Tito. Tennessee plus five, as
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: Simon says, exec decision is Chicago plus three, Big Balls,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: Minnesota plus three and a half our round Robin Carolina, Chicago,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Giants, Tennessee. Simon, if we had to lock in five, right,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: now the phase five. For now, assuming numbers are reflective
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: in the contest of what we are seeing, knowing that
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: they'd be half point lower. Let's say I think we
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: if it's a round number, So Bears is three right
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: now in the contest, I'm betting it's two and a half.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: I bet we'd go with Carolina four and a half,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: Minnesota three and a half, Titans five and a half,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: Buffalo minus three and a half. It's three and a
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: half in the contest, it's gonna be all right. So
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: if it's three and a half in the contest, I'm
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: not sure I would do it. Giants will probably be
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: four and a half. I think I would still do it,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: and then the Bears would probably be two and a half.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna come down to Giants, Bears,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: Buffalo for the final two.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I gotta I gotta get one favorite in there,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: so I might have to force in the Bills or
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: you know what about that stat he just read us,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: do you not want to kind of take the Seahawks Now,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: It's like, I don't know, we need one.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: We need one favorite in there, so we do we do.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it ends up on the Bills because of all
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: all the ones, I wouldn't hate myself the least if
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: we take the Bills Minster and half in the lands
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: on three rather than take Seahawks.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: Also, why wouldn't we want to be in agony on
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: the final Sunday and know we need one game on
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Sunday night for all all the marbles while we're about
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: to podcast, so we'll know, like by that time, it's
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: probably gonna will probably be two and two and that'll
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: be the different thing. Always a download us from Spotify,
• 1:03:13
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• 1:03:17
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• 1:03:19
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• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: the final Sunday show of the regular season. Don't forget
• 1:03:28
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• 1:03:32
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• 1:03:36
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• 1:03:40
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• 1:03:42
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• 1:04:00
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• 1:04:10
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