Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / The Open Championship - PGA DFS | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | First Look
Transcript
- 0:03Speaker 1: All systems going clear. We live, We are live. I
- 0:35Speaker 1: guess we are live.
- 0:36Speaker 2: I did not think this show was going to be
- 0:39Speaker 2: live because we have some spotty internet situation going down here,
- 0:43Speaker 2: but nonetheless we're live, so we're just gonna rip it live.
- 0:47Speaker 2: We have the Open Championship, a massive week, the final
- 0:50Speaker 2: major of the year, and as I mean, honestly, it's crazy.
- 0:54Speaker 2: I felt like it was just yesterday we were talking
- 0:55Speaker 2: about the damn Masters. But I guess like as you
- 0:58Speaker 2: get older, things happened quicker and I'm finally feeling it
- 1:01Speaker 2: like it took a while. It didn't take a while
- 1:04Speaker 2: to get to this spot. But Open Championship, Royal Birkdale,
- 1:08Speaker 2: first time we've seen this golf course since Jordan Speed
- 1:11Speaker 2: did the thing or is that nine years ago? Nine
- 1:14Speaker 2: years back? And uh, it's it's always fun.
- 1:16Speaker 1: No matter what open road to.
- 1:18Speaker 2: Maybe it's not sant Andrews. Maybe I don't sant Andrew's
- 1:20Speaker 2: fun anymore. Drop a comment is st Andrew's fun. I
- 1:23Speaker 2: don't think it's fun anymore. But here we are the
- 1:25Speaker 2: Open Championship. I'm gonna talk Instead of going through the
- 1:28Speaker 2: Twitter thread, I'm gonna talk through the model first because
- 1:32Speaker 2: usually I do the Twitter thread based off of like
- 1:34Speaker 2: last year's data, two years AGO's data. But obviously we
- 1:37Speaker 2: haven't been to this golf course in a long time,
- 1:39Speaker 2: so I'm not going to go through Royal Birkdale data.
- 1:43Speaker 2: And on top of that, we've seen a ton of
- 1:45Speaker 2: change in this golf course from the last time we've
- 1:49Speaker 2: seen this spot, So bear with me as I share
- 1:51Speaker 2: my screen. Hopefully the connection is okay, but like I said,
- 1:56Speaker 2: this pod was supposed to be recorded. Internet connection is
- 1:58Speaker 2: very odd right now, so let's dive into it. The
- 2:02Speaker 2: Open Championship model. Here are the names Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler,
- 2:07Speaker 2: Colin See, Tommy Aaron Rye, Patrick Reed, Rory McElroy, Russell
- 2:10Speaker 2: Henley four ours at number six, very very weird. I'm
- 2:14Speaker 2: not really worried about.
- 2:15Speaker 1: The names right now. It's more the stats.
- 2:17Speaker 2: What did I look for in terms of what I'm
- 2:20Speaker 2: looking for for success this year? So I built five
- 2:23Speaker 2: models times three equals fifteen. First one was accuracy plus
- 2:28Speaker 2: weighted strokes staining around the green. I do think you're
- 2:31Speaker 2: gonna have to avoid the heavy stuff, avoid the wispy stuff.
- 2:35Speaker 1: And with it being firm, which I'll get to you
- 2:38Speaker 1: in a little bit.
- 2:39Speaker 2: No matter how many fairways you're hitting, I still think
- 2:41Speaker 2: you're going to need that a leader around the green
- 2:43Speaker 2: game to.
- 2:43Speaker 1: Kind of contradict for that.
- 2:45Speaker 2: Then I went with trajectory plus plus approach play low trajectory.
- 2:49Speaker 1: I like low ball hitters.
- 2:50Speaker 2: We talked about some low ball hitters at the cock
- 2:53Speaker 2: and they kind of.
- 2:54Speaker 1: Came through version, so directory plus approach.
- 2:56Speaker 2: Then I went with waded strokes gain total plus open
- 2:59Speaker 2: chamchampionship history. Obviously, no matter what course we're playing, and
- 3:03Speaker 2: this in this side of the pond, you're gonna want
- 3:06Speaker 2: to rely on some history. If you've done it before,
- 3:08Speaker 2: you've done it before. Then I went with approach plus
- 3:10Speaker 2: around the green, and then I went with a mixed
- 3:12Speaker 2: conditions model, but basically what I'm looking for. I'm clearly
- 3:16Speaker 2: pretty high on around the Green this week, maybe more important,
- 3:19Speaker 2: maybe more high than I've been on around the Green
- 3:22Speaker 2: and most opens or most like weeks where it's been
- 3:25Speaker 2: a thing.
- 3:26Speaker 1: And it is gonna be a thing this week.
- 3:27Speaker 2: I wanted to bring this tweet up, and it's Michael
- 3:30Speaker 2: Kim's tweet.
- 3:31Speaker 1: Guys.
- 3:32Speaker 2: It is firm out here, and I do trust Mike
- 3:35Speaker 2: Kim's opinion, because every time I've done a recent BOOTS
- 3:40Speaker 2: it's Mike Kim has kind of agreed with me, and
- 3:44Speaker 2: like it's not always been the most like sought after
- 3:50Speaker 2: narrative that he's kind of preaching or that I'm preaching,
- 3:52Speaker 2: and I feel like myself and my Kim have been
- 3:54Speaker 2: pretty on par with what we are looking at. I
- 3:57Speaker 2: will bring up the recent winners from Roa Burkedale, not
- 4:00Speaker 2: that I mean not recent, all the winners from Royal Burkedale,
- 4:03Speaker 2: just you can get a sense of what this actually
- 4:05Speaker 2: is basically meaningless.
- 4:06Speaker 1: But I'm going to bring it up anyway, because like
- 4:08Speaker 1: I said, the.
- 4:09Speaker 2: Golf course has changed since twenty seventeen with speed, and
- 4:13Speaker 2: also like what am I going to do like rely
- 4:15Speaker 2: on Arnold Palmer's first Open Championship back in nineteen sixty one. No,
- 4:19Speaker 2: this is virtually meaningless and the golf course has changed
- 4:22Speaker 2: a ton of new holes, new routings, So disregard this,
- 4:25Speaker 2: but here is the scoring from the past Royal Birkdale opens.
- 4:28Speaker 1: Now.
- 4:28Speaker 2: Something that is important the weather at Royal b this week,
- 4:32Speaker 2: and it doesn't look like we're getting the craziest, most
- 4:35Speaker 2: windiest conditions we've ever seen. But what I do see
- 4:39Speaker 2: is consistent wind, is consistent firmness. We're seeing no water,
- 4:44Speaker 2: no rain come in. I know this should all change
- 4:47Speaker 2: in heartbeats it don't take this, take this with a
- 4:49Speaker 2: grain of salt. It also is Monday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday.
- 4:52Speaker 2: We'll do showdown shows. We'll talk more about the weather there.
- 4:55Speaker 2: That's probably more telling than the week.
- 4:57Speaker 1: Long weather forecast.
- 4:58Speaker 2: But the most important part of the weather is it's
- 5:01Speaker 2: gonna be steady win. I'm not seeing a wave split
- 5:04Speaker 2: just yet. Check back with Alex and Gambell on Wednesday
- 5:06Speaker 2: for that. But it's more the uh, the damn consistent win.
- 5:11Speaker 2: The more firm on Monday, it's gonna be continued to
- 5:13Speaker 2: be firm throughout the week. So hopefully we see that
- 5:16Speaker 2: come to fruition and hopefully it gets a little bit firm.
- 5:19Speaker 2: Next thing I want to do is touch on the
- 5:21Speaker 2: DFS board. We see none other than Scottie Sheffield lead
- 5:25Speaker 2: the way at thirteen to three, Rory, Tommy matt Fits.
- 5:30Speaker 2: I think we have to address the elephant in the
- 5:33Speaker 2: room with Matfis. I was gonna go through two players
- 5:35Speaker 2: and they were gonna be Cam and Turrell, which I'll
- 5:38Speaker 2: get to them as well, but we'll address the room
- 5:40Speaker 2: with address the elephant in the room with mat Fitzpatrick.
- 5:42Speaker 2: He is gonna be extremely chalky this week, extremely extremely
- 5:47Speaker 2: chalky this week. And it is no surprise or shocker
- 5:51Speaker 2: that he is extremely choky. He's a local, he's a
- 5:54Speaker 2: UK guy. He played pretty well at the Scottish Open
- 5:57Speaker 2: last week. He's played well and opens before, and he's
- 5:59Speaker 2: having one of the best seasons of his career, which
- 6:01Speaker 2: was definitely expected.
- 6:03Speaker 1: This year.
- 6:04Speaker 2: Matthews Patrick's number is getting getting slashed in all markets.
- 6:07Speaker 2: He's in a ten k range, and I think people
- 6:09Speaker 2: are gonna be like, all right, gott he missed the cut.
- 6:11Speaker 1: Last week, Let's go with fits, Let's go with the
- 6:13Speaker 1: top dog fits.
- 6:14Speaker 2: Who's gonna maybe retire with an Open, an Open championship
- 6:18Speaker 2: a Claire jugg in his career.
- 6:19Speaker 1: Could it be this year?
- 6:20Speaker 2: I guess we'll see, But I know the next guys
- 6:22Speaker 2: I wanted to talk about were Cameron Young and terryl Hatten.
- 6:25Speaker 2: At nine K and eighty nine hundred dollars. Cameron Young
- 6:28Speaker 2: has is in some questionable form. I think it's t
- 6:30Speaker 2: forty sevreety six in his last three starts. One thing
- 6:35Speaker 2: that Cameron Young has done well is hit the ball well.
- 6:38Speaker 2: It's been all putter. That's been bad for Cameron Young.
- 6:41Speaker 2: And I know, and you guys know, because I know
- 6:43Speaker 2: you guys were commenting on these shows the Cameron Young
- 6:46Speaker 2: Bermuda thing. It's true he needs Bermuda grass to play
- 6:52Speaker 2: because he doesn't like playing on ban grass. But now
- 6:54Speaker 2: we're overseas. He's not thinking of New York when he's
- 6:56Speaker 2: he's not thinking of of.
- 6:58Speaker 1: The streets in New York.
- 6:59Speaker 2: When he's overseas, he's across the pit, he's thinking of
- 7:03Speaker 2: hit continuing to hit it well and just holding some putts.
- 7:05Speaker 2: When he gets on that that northeast bent, he gets
- 7:07Speaker 2: a little bit crazy. But we are across the PA.
- 7:10Speaker 2: He's put well there before, he's played well there before,
- 7:13Speaker 2: and I trust him to lean on that ball strike
- 7:15Speaker 2: and nine K is a great price for what Cameron
- 7:17Speaker 2: Young has is doing this year and for what Cameron Young,
- 7:21Speaker 2: like we know he can do. Next goal for I
- 7:23Speaker 2: want to touch on a liveman, and that is Tyrrell
- 7:26Speaker 2: had eighty nine hundred dollars come off of a t
- 7:30Speaker 2: seventeen at the Scottish Open after starting with.
- 7:33Speaker 1: A seven lost.
- 7:34Speaker 2: It was about he battled back, but it was a
- 7:36Speaker 2: tough a tough round one, tough start. A T seventeen
- 7:39Speaker 2: is nice at T seven at the US Open and
- 7:42Speaker 2: a win at Andalucia on live. So Tyrrell hadn't at
- 7:45Speaker 2: eighty nine hundred dollars has so much T five T
- 7:50Speaker 2: three upside. I don't know if he has like the
- 7:52Speaker 2: grit and determination and dog to win. You're also gonna
- 7:55Speaker 2: need dog this week because the starting stretch holds one
- 7:59Speaker 2: through six are very very difficult, and the last I
- 8:03Speaker 2: think five of the last holes, two of them are
- 8:06Speaker 2: Part five. So if you get off to a slow start,
- 8:08Speaker 2: stay in the game, you have scoring chances late and
- 8:10Speaker 2: you're gonna make bogie. You have to be able to
- 8:12Speaker 2: bounce back in some regards, so you have to have
- 8:14Speaker 2: the dog for sure this week. Till a Hatten, I'm
- 8:18Speaker 2: not sure he has that to win, but I think
- 8:19Speaker 2: he can. He can back door T three, back door
- 8:21Speaker 2: T five, So troll Hadden eighty nine hundred dollars a
- 8:24Speaker 2: selection that I want to definitely wanted to mention. Time
- 8:27Speaker 2: to touch on the betting board, no surprise, Scotti Scheffer
- 8:30Speaker 2: leads the way, but that number is drifting. We got
- 8:32Speaker 2: a hand up. We bet Scotty Schffer last week' single bullet.
- 8:36Speaker 2: We've been pretty rough on this, not that rough. We
- 8:38Speaker 2: bet Scotty at Miami and he finished runner up to
- 8:44Speaker 2: Cam Young, and then we bet Scotty last week. Obviously
- 8:48Speaker 2: a misscut, so I'm not always right. That was right,
- 8:52Speaker 2: But Scotty Scheffler, the number is drifting. What is your
- 8:54Speaker 2: auto bet on Scotty this week? I will not be
- 8:56Speaker 2: going to Scotty this week for sure. I don't hate him,
- 8:59Speaker 2: but I'm just not gonna get there because of like
- 9:01Speaker 2: he won last year. I don't think he's gonna win
- 9:02Speaker 2: again here. But I think it's a good number and
- 9:04Speaker 2: it's going in the right direction. What I did want
- 9:06Speaker 2: to touch on is this guy right here, thirty three
- 9:09Speaker 2: to one, Ludwig Obert drifting, drifting, drifting, coming off of
- 9:14Speaker 2: a miscut at the Genesis Scottish Open all short game,
- 9:18Speaker 2: missed the cut on the number, still gained just under
- 9:21Speaker 2: two strokes ball striking in two rounds and the part
- 9:24Speaker 2: wasn't even that bad. Who knows these are just two
- 9:28Speaker 2: semi average rounds. Ludvig could have made the cut on
- 9:33Speaker 2: the number one stroke better and then had a great,
- 9:36Speaker 2: great Saturday, great Sunday, finished T eight, and you guys
- 9:38Speaker 2: would have been like, oh my god, Ludvig, let's do it.
- 9:41Speaker 2: Ludvig Open Championship. He's played well across the pond before.
- 9:45Speaker 2: I am buying it. I am surely buying it. I
- 9:48Speaker 2: like what I saw from him in those two rounds.
- 9:50Speaker 2: I like where the narrative around Ludwig is right now.
- 9:52Speaker 2: So Ludvig the beautiful man thirty three to one. That
- 9:55Speaker 2: is what we are going with. And then down the
- 9:57Speaker 2: board as we scroll you'll see some interesting names. But
- 10:00Speaker 2: I really caught my eye. I really caught my eye
- 10:02Speaker 2: when we got to this like one hundred range, and
- 10:05Speaker 2: that is where is he.
- 10:07Speaker 1: Did he drift already? Let's see? Did he? Oh?
- 10:11Speaker 2: I just must must have missed him. Harris English one
- 10:14Speaker 2: hundred to one. He doesn't have the greatest Open Championship
- 10:18Speaker 2: course history in the world, but what the Harris English
- 10:21Speaker 2: does more often than not is perform pretty decently in majors.
- 10:27Speaker 2: And we're in a major this week. So Harris English
- 10:30Speaker 2: one hundred to one. A very stern total driver of
- 10:33Speaker 2: the golf ball both long and straight, has a pretty
- 10:37Speaker 2: solid short game. The short game is kicking in the
- 10:39Speaker 2: gear right now as well. So Harris English around that
- 10:43Speaker 2: one hundred to one number, I think has real upside
- 10:46Speaker 2: in the betting market, in the outright market, in the
- 10:50Speaker 2: top ten market. I love Harris English there for sure.
- 10:55Speaker 2: Let's touch on the site. You're gonna use this code
- 10:58Speaker 2: right here. You're gonna use this code.
- 11:00Speaker 1: I don't have it up right now. You're gonna use
- 11:02Speaker 1: code Boots.
- 11:03Speaker 2: And you're gonna get to the site and you are
- 11:05Speaker 2: going to do the following. So right here, if you
- 11:08Speaker 2: want to join the nation, you're gonna click join the Nation.
- 11:11Speaker 2: Pick whatever package you like. If you just want the
- 11:13Speaker 2: golf single Sport, PGA plus Optimizer, PGA plus Optimizer plus tools,
- 11:17Speaker 2: PGA just the content only. If you use this when
- 11:19Speaker 2: you're gonna get all of the Sabersim tools to enter
- 11:22Speaker 2: all of your players into the optimizer and build yourself lineups.
- 11:26Speaker 1: Secondly, if you want everything.
- 11:29Speaker 2: All access, all Access plus Optimizer is your best package.
- 11:32Speaker 2: Code Boots gets you a free week if you've never
- 11:35Speaker 2: tried it before, and also get you ten percent off
- 11:38Speaker 2: because once you join, you will not stay right here.
- 11:41Speaker 2: No not shows that's that's not where you're gonna go.
- 11:43Speaker 2: You're gonna go to Join the Nation. That logo also
- 11:47Speaker 2: Winner Circle, Winner Circle. All you have to do is
- 11:50Speaker 2: fly this logo, download one of these, put it in
- 11:53Speaker 2: your ship at Nation or Storry, putting in your DraftKings
- 11:55Speaker 2: or FanDuel Avatar. And then if you win one K,
- 11:58Speaker 2: ten K, one hundred K, one a million, and don't
- 12:01Speaker 2: don't don't, don't get it twisted. We've had four one
- 12:04Speaker 2: million dollar winners at ship in Nation, so it can happen.
- 12:08Speaker 2: Use all of these tools. Projections, uh Stone, the slave Station,
- 12:13Speaker 2: the Value Report. Everything that we put on the site
- 12:16Speaker 2: is a simple tool to help you learn more and grow.
- 12:21Speaker 2: I will never just pick five names from the projections,
- 12:24Speaker 2: five names from the Stone. I'll pick a few names
- 12:27Speaker 2: from each and that's what I kind of preach. Pick
- 12:29Speaker 2: a few names from what I say, pick a few
- 12:31Speaker 2: names from what the numbers say, and combine them into
- 12:34Speaker 2: your pool, and then rely on our tools, our optimizer
- 12:38Speaker 2: to build you something special. And we have winners every
- 12:41Speaker 2: day every week. Join the Nation, code boots. Three things
- 12:45Speaker 2: I want to touch on before we get out of here,
- 12:47Speaker 2: a potential chalky golfer, a potential pivot and as always,
- 12:51Speaker 2: the one golfer that.
- 12:53Speaker 1: I am on.
- 12:54Speaker 2: So let's start with a potential chalky golfer that is
- 12:58Speaker 2: going to be our friend and Manually in the Booboo
- 13:03Speaker 2: Lemon attire, you can see you right there, Booboo Lemon,
- 13:07Speaker 2: Manually coming off of a runner up, and he gained
- 13:11Speaker 2: strokes in every single category, thirteen fourteen strokes to the field.
- 13:15Speaker 2: A beautiful week for Minually, and I think it's a
- 13:18Speaker 2: pretty solid narrative. Now the Minually flow chart is is
- 13:22Speaker 2: it links?
- 13:23Speaker 1: Yes? If so, play Minually. Everyone's gonna know this.
- 13:27Speaker 2: Everyone sees Manually coming off with a runner up in Scotle,
- 13:29Speaker 2: then a golf course that fits him perfectly. I don't
- 13:31Speaker 2: think this golf course fits him as well, and I
- 13:34Speaker 2: do think he's gonna be chalky. So people are gonna
- 13:37Speaker 2: go to Minwu and I just don't think it's gonna
- 13:38Speaker 2: turn out well. So Minue is gonna be a golfer
- 13:40Speaker 2: I'm gonna be avoiding obviously. It's as protector ownership right there.
- 13:43Speaker 2: One percent is that is only Monday. It is not
- 13:45Speaker 2: updated yet, so minually is a golfer. I'm gonna be
- 13:48Speaker 2: avoiding a chalky golfer. Next thing, potential pivot. Now, I
- 13:52Speaker 2: always say, is this a pivot off of manually? No,
- 13:55Speaker 2: this is a pivot in the range. So it's gonna
- 13:58Speaker 2: be Colin more Cow eighty seven. Looking at who he
- 14:02Speaker 2: is around. Let me bring this pricing back up real quick.
- 14:04Speaker 2: Who he is around Colin mor Kawa eighty seven, underneath
- 14:08Speaker 2: that Cam young Terrel Hatton who he talked about, right
- 14:10Speaker 2: above Chris Gottup, Brs de Shambo like golfers who are
- 14:16Speaker 2: gonna get clipped, and Colin, I mean, he's not playing
- 14:18Speaker 2: bad golf, but he's not doing anything so so so special.
- 14:22Speaker 2: He is an Open championship, a luck Box Open champion
- 14:25Speaker 2: by that. But he's coming off a third place finish
- 14:27Speaker 2: at the Travelers in which he hit you almost ten
- 14:29Speaker 2: strokes ball striking, a great US Open performance, and I
- 14:32Speaker 2: just think he's going under the radar and people aren't
- 14:34Speaker 2: gonna see it. People are gonna click other names around him.
- 14:37Speaker 2: So Colin Morikawa is the pivot of the week for
- 14:40Speaker 2: me in that eight k range drum roll. The one
- 14:44Speaker 2: golfer that we are on is going to be Jon Rohm.
- 14:48Speaker 2: John Ram coming off of a very very disappointing miscut
- 14:53Speaker 2: at the US Open and then a backdoor made cut
- 14:56Speaker 2: for T thirty six at the Scottish Open. I don't
- 15:00Speaker 2: I think anyone's gonna want to play John Brahm after
- 15:02Speaker 2: everything he just did. So with that being said, we
- 15:05Speaker 2: are gonna play Jen Brom. And it's not just solely
- 15:08Speaker 2: because of no one's gonna play them. It is because
- 15:12Speaker 2: John Brom is a elite talent.
- 15:15Speaker 1: He's going to figure it out.
- 15:16Speaker 2: His game is wrapped around elite driving, plus sure game
- 15:20Speaker 2: and spike approach as well. He has the blueprint, He's
- 15:23Speaker 2: done it across the Pond before, he's got the Spanish hands.
- 15:26Speaker 2: And I just think John Ram is an excellent target,
- 15:30Speaker 2: a low owned, honestly upper tier golfer, and I think
- 15:33Speaker 2: he can treat you well this week. So genrem is
- 15:38Speaker 2: the one golfer it that we are on. We will
- 15:40Speaker 2: be back on Thursday, Friday, Saturday for the showdown content. Obviously,
- 15:46Speaker 2: this tournament is across the Pond, so bear with the
- 15:50Speaker 2: showdown times this week. I know we only did two
- 15:52Speaker 2: showdown shows last weekend because the third round got canceled,
- 15:55Speaker 2: so there's gonna be some shows that are princially in.
- 15:58Speaker 1: The morning some of the afternoon.
- 16:00Speaker 2: But stay alert in the discord, stay alert on Twitter,
- 16:02Speaker 2: and you guys will see what the Showdown situation is.
- 16:06Speaker 2: As always, a slight plan will be up on the site.
- 16:07Speaker 2: Use that code Boots before we get out of here.
- 16:10Speaker 2: As always, we're gonna give you guys this song of
- 16:12Speaker 2: the day, and since it is a major week I
- 16:15Speaker 2: need you guys to check this one out and report
- 16:17Speaker 2: back in the comments what you guys think. Today's song
- 16:20Speaker 2: of the day is going to be the Pursuit of
- 16:24Speaker 2: Misery by the Lovely Summer Hoop, a absolute banger. I
- 16:27Speaker 2: need you to check it out, let me know what
- 16:29Speaker 2: you think. You like it, you don't like it, let
- 16:31Speaker 2: me know. But nonetheless, tune in this weekend. We'll be
- 16:34Speaker 2: back with the Showdown content and as always, let's chip
- 16:37Speaker 2: it catch you guys, do it.
- 16:38Speaker 1: Peace.