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Elon Musk Exclusive interview about Future Few New sectors. · Elon Musk Thinking

0:00
Thank you all for sticking around this afternoon. We had some great conversations and
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we're hoping to have another great one. It is my pleasure and an honor
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of privilege, really to have this conversation about the future with two gentlemen who
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know probably more about it than most. The fellow all the way to my
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right to your left does not need any introduction. Elon Musk. You all
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know from Tesla and SpaceX, of course from Solar City, Sam All and
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I would say you don't need too much introduction either, but I'm going to
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give it to you just in case you don't. He runs why Comminator.
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Why Comminator has investments in over one thousand companies at this point. They're investing
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in about two hundred fifty companies every single year. Those companies collectively are worth
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about sixty five billion dollars in total. That's with a B. And to
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give you just a sort of a sense of the kind of names you're talking
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about, we're talking about Airbnb, Dropbox, Stripe, Zenefitz, Instacart,
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etc. So both both folks with an amazing pedigree and an amazing sense of
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what's going on. Here's I want to start the conversation with both of you,
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and I think we're going to probably go to outer space very quickly,
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but we're going to try to keep it on Earth at least for the moment.
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When you think about innovation and you think about where we are going to
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be ten, fifteen, twenty years and what to invest in, what to
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make I'm going to make it hard for you, Elan. If you took
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Tesla out of it, took Solar City out of it, took SpaceX out
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of it, and you said I could go start a new company tomorrow,
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it would be what it would be in? What area? Where would you
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start thinking about? Well, I think I think there's some pairy like there's
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a fairly obvious opportunity in electric aircraft because all transport will electrify over time,
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with the exception of rockets ironically, And you know, but there's I mean
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that there's I think there's there's two areas which I mean they're fraught with issues,
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but you know, it's one of those things where if you if you
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don't do something, maybe not doing something is worse, like on the AI
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front or on genetics, you know, so like like the those are the
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two things I think besides sustainable transport, the Internet and making like multiplanetary rewriting,
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genetics, uh, and AI. But the latter two are the ones
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that can most change destiny of humanity. But but they're they're really dodgy.
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So I mean, maybe I'd try to do something in one of those two
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areas, but they're yeah, fraught with difficulty. Elizabeth Holmes was here earlier
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spoke during the lunch hour. Do you think about genetics and longevity and trying
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to sort of know what your your friend Larry Page is investing in a business
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hoping to end death. I don't, I mean the I mean, I'm
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not actually a huge proponent of longevity. I mean I do think that having
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a good life for longer is better. Like you'd want to address the you
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know, the things that that happened to you when when you're older, like
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dementia and so forth, that those are pretty important. But I'm not I'm
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not sure it's sort of actually you want to do that. I want to
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get into the genetict thing, but it is something that's going to fundamentally change
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humanity and a lot along with AI. So you don't want to live forever
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so that you can get to Mars. I definitely don't want to live forever.
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How many years do you want to live? I don't know. One
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hundred good ones, one hundred good ones or a hundred more good ones.
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You're forty four, I mean one hundred good ones in total, I think
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is probably fine and maybe a bit longer. Sam. Where where would you
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put your money? You're you're the investor here. Well, I mean we
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try to invest in a very broad range of technology. So we funded an
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electric airplane, or fund an electric airplane company. We've done a companies we've
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done. How are you listed? Is the electric airplane? By the way,
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I think it should work. I mean I think it's like it makes
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it makes sense. Yeah, the math should work, I think I actually
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I no huge surprise, but I'll agree with Elan on those two areas.
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I think if you could pick two things that I'm not already working really hard
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on AI, having AI go in the positive direction, which I really think
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it can, and I think thinking about sort of genetic technology. Genetic technology.
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I made it unfair for you because I said, we had to take
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solar City out and we had to take the cars out, so we didn't
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get to really talk about energy, but I imagine how big, how big,
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how big a thing do you think energy all in and when you think
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about both of your investments in what you're doing, is something that is one
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of the things that you need to tackle. Well. I think sustainable energy
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is the most important problem that we face the century. That's like a known
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difficult thing that we have to solve. Like if we if we continue to
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rely on burning hydrocobbins, the future is going to be quite bad. And
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the vast majority of the scientific establishment believes that. And the evidence I think
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is well, I mean, anyone with a scientific background is unequivocal. So
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we've got to solve sustainable energy. I'm a big kind of solar because we
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got this big few usion ball in the sky called the Sun and it turns
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up every day. So if we can use solar energy plush batteries, we
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can actually have a complete solution for sustainable energy generation. And then we need
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to use in a sustainable way, which is you know where you need the
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electric transport. Yeah, So the thing I would ad I think getting the
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cost of sustainable energy down super low is probably you know, short of friendly
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AI, Like the most important thing we can do for sort of quality of
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life of the poorest half of the world. I think that, you know,
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every time I look into this, it's really amazing how much the cost
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of energy and the quality of life correlate. What about nuclear energy, You
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have some investments in nuclear energy. Yeah, I mean, what I've always
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said is I think the end state of the world is a combination of nuclear
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and solar, probably eighty twenty one way or the other, sort of terrestrial
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based nuclear. I think fusion is likely to work at some point in the
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next couple of decades, and that's a really big deal. I think that
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it's good to have a backup op. It's good to have two sources.
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But you know, like it's all sort of fusion when you think about it.
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Yeah, I mean, I'm a big I mean, I think fusion.
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I think it's definitely possible to make fusion work. But I think at
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the and I used to be a big fan of of like having of that
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as the long term energy source, but I'm inclined to think like indirect fusion
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from the sun. Essentially it's going to be the primary source, and then
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to some degree there will be fusion reactors for you know, maybe if you're
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really far north or which are south? What about the risks of nuclear energy
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A fusion, A fusion, I assume there's some risk. There's no risk,
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not really zero. I'm an idiot. I don't know, no,
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No. With fusion, the difficulty is keeping it going not you know,
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with with with fission that you have some melt down risk, although there's you
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know, there's new technology on the fission front that makes the melt down risk
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extremely low. But with fusion, the great difficulty is keeping the reaction from
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is keeping it from the fire from going out. It's quite hard to sustain
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a fusion reaction unless you have something very big like the Sun, and you
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have the Sun has gravitational confinement of fusion reaction. So since you you can't
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do gravitational confinement on Earth, you have to do some sort of electromagnetic confinement
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with one form or another, or or a kinetic confinement by slamming things into
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each other. So it's it's quite tricky to prevent a fusion explosion from not
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immediately extinguishing God. So fusion is like, uh, I mean probably what
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you do is just repeat it every second or whatever. So I mean,
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just just a sort of. You know, fusion is like when you when
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you take two hydrogen atoms or or or two hydrogenal isotopes technically and slam them
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together and form helium. That's that's fusion. And then fission is like when
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you've got like a heavy atom that is decaying at a you know, relatively
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like a noticeable rate, like uranium or plutonium, and decays into smaller atoms.
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Then that's that's that's fission. I didn't do so well in science,
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so we're going to try to move along. But you recently said that you
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wanted to nuke Mars. I mean I didn't know then you guys in the
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back were doing some science talk about how nuking Mars would work. Yeah,
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yeah, so so nu king Wars. I sort of was a little flippant
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about that. I think it's a really decent idea. Thank you, thank
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you. So yeah, the what I was really getting at, But it's
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hard to you know, convey that in like at thirty seconds, you know,
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on on the Lake Show, SI in Colvera was was that the sun
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is a nuclear explosion, a fusion explosion. That's what the sun is.
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It's an ongoing fusion explosion. So if you wanted to add energy to Mars,
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like warm up Mars. The really the source of almost all energy in
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the universe is fusion, you know, even fission is originally there was fusion
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and then that that that then later resulted in fission. But what I was
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really doing about is creating two little suns, two pulsing suns above the north
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and south pole of Mars that would warm the pulse up enough so that the
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frozen CO two would would gasify and densify the atmosphere. Some of the water
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would also heat up, and you'd have sort of water, more water,
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water, vapor, and CO two in the in the Martian atmosphere, which
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in that case is good because the CO two ends up warming, warming Mars
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up, and so you get a positive sort of reaction, like it's a
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puzz stive cycle of warming on Mars. Like you want to warm Mars up.
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You don't want to warm Earth up, you know, So why would
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you ever want to live on Mars? It looks like a great adventure to
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me. Beyond the adventure, do you actually both of you you you're investing
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in stuff that hopefully one day we'll go to Mars nothing from Mars. But
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excuse nothing from Mars. But I but I hope elong goes. I think
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that would be cool. But is that just for one person? What's gonna
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happen? No? Really, I want to well, I mean the Mars
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thing is is really like if you say, what is going to be really
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important to the preservation of of civilization or life as we know it more than
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just you know, humanity, because of course we would bring life as we
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know it to Mars and that there's no life that we can detect on the
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surface of Mars to maybe some subterranean bacterial life, but there's not it's on
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the surface there there isn't anything. So this would be the extension of life
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to another planet, or life as we know it to another planet, and
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I think would be make a huge difference to the probable a lifespan of human
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civilization and life as we know it. So it's sort of like an insurance
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policy, a life insurance policy of life collectively. And you know, so
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it's yeah, probable because you because you think global warming, what do you
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what do you think is going to happen here? That's I do want to
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be clear, it's this is this is a. I mean, I think
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it's important that we become a multiplanet species, not a single planet species,
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but on another planet. So this is if we it's like, really,
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it's like, what kind of future do you want to have? Do you
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want to have a future where we are forever confined to one planet or one
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where we are out there exploring the stars and and on on many planets.
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And I think the latter one is far more exciting and inspiring because the former
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is basically waiting around until some extinction event. So because eventually there will be
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one and it might be quite far in the future, but it also might
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not be far in the future. So there's so there's the there's really two
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main reasons I think to make life multiplanetarian to establish a self sustaining civilization of
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Mars. One is the defensive reason, to ensure that the light of consciousness
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as we know it is not extinguished or lasts much longer. And the second
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is that it would be an amazing adventure that we could all enjoy vicariously,
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if not personally. I think it's really important to establish multiplanetary life. I
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agree with that. I think my concern is that the I think the AI
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question is likely to become pressing and important to deal with before we can establish
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a full colony on Mars. That's true. I think even if not,
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then the AI can like go to Mars on a laser beam. The AI
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goes here. It's very hard that, I mean, it's like just gives
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itself there. Yeah, I mean it's very hard to like a programing through
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space. But the AI is going to go like twenty minutes, you know,
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on a laser beam, It's easy. Do you guys believe in life
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forms outside of Earth? Do you think there are? I mean, I
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think there's there's quite a high chance of microbial life. That's there's a much
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that then as you get more advanced in life, that that there's less and
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less likelihood of of like sophisticated life. But you do you think there's Do
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you think there are aliens out there that we can talk to? You mean
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as opposed to like bacteria. Yeah. Yeah, there's a great Onion article
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recently about like, you know, uh, like like NASA should only hold
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a press conference if they find aliens that we can talk to. But but
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I think it's a I mean, it's it's an interesting confluence of events.
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Like it's not just that there has to be life, intelligent life that evolves
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somewhere, but that that life has to last for a long time for us
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to be for us to exist at the same time as that. So what
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it suggests there's this great questions called the like sort of the Fermi paradox,
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like where are the aliens? Like, if there's so many planets out there
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and the universe is almost fourteen billion years old, why aren't the aliens everywhere?
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And this is one of the most perplexing questions because you know, you
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could basically bicycle to Alpha Centauri in a few hundred thousand years, like I
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meaning at that's at bicycle speed. So it's sort of like, you know,
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in one hundred billion years, like even at a very slow speed,
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you could completely blanket the galaxy. So why why not? Where are they?
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It's very hard for me to get over there right now. Well,
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we were talking in the back and we've had this conversation before. You please
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weigh in on this, and I think it's a thought experiment that you have
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suggested that we are all collectively right now living in a simulation. What does
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that mean? Yeah, it's a probabilistic thing. So they really if you
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look at say the advancement of video games from say forty years ago, when
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we started out with Pong and you just had like rectangles batting a rectangle to
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each other. And now we've got photorealistic three D simulations with millions of people
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playing simultaneously, or three D games with millions of people playing simultaneously that are
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just getting better. Now we've got virtual reality headsets, so you can just
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put it on and it feels like you're right there. You'll have haptic feedback,
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meaning four speedback sticks so you can actually pick up something and feel like
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you're picking up something, like have haptic gloves. And if you extrapolate that
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advancement at any rate at all, like if you say, okay, let's
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say it's it slows down by a factor of one hundred starting right now,
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Okay, so then then then I mean the video games will be distinguishable from
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reality. And let's say you know, two hundred years instead of twenty years
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or something like that. But you don't think that we're in a game right
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now. Okay, Well, but that's this is this like that we are
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all somebody has a joystick somewhere else in some other you know, where I'm
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certainly doesn't feel like that. I mean, I don't, I don't.
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I don't think I'm being played by somebody in a video game. But then
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people in video games don't generally think that. I certainly think if you talk
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to people who use the latest virtual reality equipment in sort of a big space
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where they sort of map like benches in the space to benches in the game
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and the environment, you know, they have this experience when they do that
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for the first time and they take it off and then they just freeze for
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ten seconds and you can and then you talk to them, and it's clear
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that like they their belief that this is actual reality has been shaken because they
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were so convinced in virtual reality that that was real. And so if I
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can take this off, like, why aren't there other layers? I also
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think it ties interestingly back to the Fermi paradox. Yeah, exactly. You
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know, if it is a simulation sort of that would be a pretty good
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answer for why they're an all aliens. How far are we away from sort
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of virtual reality being a thing that all of us sort of live in to
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some degree? We would go to this com real close. We would go
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to this conference from our VR sets. I mean, I don't think it's
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there's still something to actually really being there in person that we probably won't lose
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for for a long time, hopefully never. But I mean with what Oculus
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and Velove are coming out with, and I believe some of that, like
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the first br headsets are due out really next year, yeah, like in
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the next several months. And the demo is that that I've seen and I
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think Sam's probably seen too, are incredibly compelling. And there is that strange
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feeling because because you put the headset on in like a very nondescript Bland room
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and you put the headset on and suddenly you're in anywhere like you could be.
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Yeah, you know, I got this demo where they would like blow
19:22
air on you when you like got near a cliff edge, and when you
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walk near a fire, they would turn on the heater and you didn't see
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any of this because you're just wearing it and then you and it's really quite
19:30
quite compelling. I want to talk about something else that's compelling, which is
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Tesla. It's really nuck about the X. It's an suv. It's an
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suv. But here's where I was going to say, one hundred and thirty
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two thousand dollars, how many people are really going to buy this thing?
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Yeah, So the the first cars that are produced off fully the sort of
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fully optioned version, so it's not like a base price of you know,
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one hundred and thirty two thousand. It's and we'll have a version that's still
19:57
expensive on the expensive side, but before any incentives would be about seventy five
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K next year, and you know, with incentives and whatnot, it's you
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know, maybe sixty five So it's it's still expensive, but it's not as
20:15
crazy as one hundred and thirty two the and then in a couple of years
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we should have the Model three and that'll be starting price of thirty five thousand
20:27
dollars. So it's a smaller car, but it's you know a lot more
20:33
affordable. Okay, So for the Tesla sort of real efficionados who follow you
20:37
on Twitter, you need you need to answer one thing, which is last
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week somebody tweeted at you, I think about the X, and then you
20:45
put out a tweet that mentioned the Y and the three and then you deleted
20:49
the tweet. Yes, everybody wants to know why you deleted the tweet and
20:55
what the tweet actually said. I know, I think I think it was.
20:57
It just said something like the be the Muddle three and the moddel why
21:03
and that one of them will have like a felcing door, which is like
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pretty obviously the moddel why so the but I deleted that, and like,
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I don't know it does know the tweets because I just thought I had like
21:15
kind of a rambling Twitter history, but it was had no significance. That
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lead has no significance, Like I don't think deleting a tweet like makes it
21:22
go away from the Internet or something, So why why delete tweet? I
21:26
just didn't like what the way my Twitter history looked. It was. It
21:27
was like two rambling. You've invested in Twitter, IM in Twitter, in
21:37
Tesla. You own a Tesla, make the case for those who are out
21:44
there, make it harder because he has to do it. Now, why
21:48
what is this going to become in your mind? You sure you don't have
21:51
to answer, Yeah, we know what you're going to say. Look,
21:53
I mean I think as most people who own one think it's the best car
21:59
like out there. I had a Roadster before I test the Roaster, which
22:02
was not the best car, but the model Assue really is like it's just
22:06
it's the best car on the market. And I think that people think of
22:08
this like existing car companies, but actually this is like a software company with
22:15
a car attached to it, and it's you know, you just like you
22:19
sort of point and click, you like point the wheel somewhere, you push
22:22
the thing down and it just kind of gets there. It doesn't make noise.
22:23
It's like it's very reliable. The software actually works. It's the only
22:26
car with good software, So I think people really like it. Now.
22:29
Yeah, it's like really expensive still, but I think, well, I'm
22:36
confident that a mass market test sole will do very well. And I also
22:40
think the other electric cars I've driven feel like many years behind. Right,
22:45
you talked about this being a software company. Do you think of your self
22:48
as a software company. I think we're software and a hardware company, But
22:52
the software component does become increasingly important. So you've got to get both right,
22:59
because it's it's a holistic product experience, but its software is increasingly the
23:06
you know, an increasing proportion of the problem tool as you get to autonomy,
23:11
and yeah, so there is a view. I don't know if it's
23:14
a conspiracy theory that you are building autonomous functionality and other driver lests like functionality
23:22
into the car without advertising that it's in there, and that one day you
23:26
were going to flip a switch and the car is going to start just driving.
23:32
Well, uh no, not quite like that. But we are going
23:36
to upload new software soon. And this is not actually a secret or anything.
23:41
We have version seven of our software which turns on highway autopilot, so
23:48
the car will be able to steer by itself on highways or any kind of
23:55
any kind of road that doesn't have really steep, sharp curves on it.
23:59
And then also it'll steer quite well in traffic. So those the two scenarios
24:04
where it's going to be quite good at steering. And well that that's in
24:11
public beta right now. So we have I don't know, six or seven
24:15
hundred Tesla drivers owners that are testing the order to steer software, and yeah,
24:25
go ahead. I think full self driving cars, I'm not Tesling specifically,
24:30
just in general, are likely to get here much more quickly than people
24:33
realize. Yeah, I think you ask most people, they would still say
24:37
it's ten to twenty years away, and I actually think we'll have sort of
24:40
like full point to point autonomous driving in a few years. It won't be
24:44
yeah, a few years, like two or three years, three or four
24:47
maybe better. I agree. I think that's something on the on the two
24:49
to three year timeframe is likely for it to be technologically, I mean,
24:55
you'll be able to demonstrate it, but it won't you won't be able to
24:57
go to fully autonomous until get regulator regulatory approval. So there's there's a there's
25:03
a time of difference between when it is technologically possible in a general sense,
25:11
you know, so that you know, not not just like in a very
25:15
tightly mapped situation like say mountain view of Palo Alto, right, but in
25:18
the general sense of like you know, can can do point to point virtually
25:22
anywhere. Right. I think that's that's only you know, two to three
25:25
years away. But but then approval of from regulators of having a few autonomous
25:33
is anywhere from I don't know, one to five years after that, depending
25:37
upon the location, because the regulars regulators have to be convinced that it is
25:41
substantially I think they'll they'll want you to see that it's significantly more Uh,
25:48
the signific significantly safer than than cars that are driven by people. I want
25:52
to open it up in about five minutes, so I just have a couple
25:55
more questions to get to you. And so if you guys have questions in
25:57
the audience, get your shot on goal. And in just a second,
26:00
I want to talk about an entrepreneurship because both of you are entrepreneurs. You
26:03
invest in them. You are one, and you think about this a lot.
26:07
Your old pal, Peter Thiel likes to say that he would not invest
26:14
in somebody who's over the age of thirty years old, that that it should
26:18
be the cutoff. You're forty four. Now he's invested in you. Yeah,
26:23
I guess it makes excepse. But you may be the exception to the
26:26
rule as somebody who invests in companies every day. Do you think there's a
26:32
cutoff, But there's a lot of people out here who are over the age
26:33
of thirty. Are we done? I mean we've said this before, but
26:38
when we've looked at our data, the mean age of entrepreneurs we fund is
26:44
just around twenty nine to thirty. So there's obviously lots of over thirty entrepreneurs
26:48
that we fund. Someone which are gone on to create multi billion dollar companies.
26:52
So I think certainly you can't say it's impossible for people over at thirty
26:55
to create companies. That's ridiculous, and we plan to continue to invest in
26:59
people of all ages. The correlation that we've noticed is that if you look
27:03
at the really successful companies we've had, the multi billion dollar companies, the
27:07
average for those average age for those founders does skew significantly younger. But the
27:11
success rate of founders of you know, this binary is the company's success are
27:15
not excuse older than thirty. So, you know, younger entrepreneurs, I
27:18
think tend to take bigger risks. Maybe they're willing to work on these very
27:23
long time horizon projects. But that's the only correlation we see. I think
27:29
it would be a crazy strategy to say I'm never going to invest in anyone
27:32
over thirty. Yeah. No, I mean I think I think it's I
27:34
don't think Peter meant that either. Yeah, I mean, you can definitely
27:38
start a company at any age and be successful. I mean it's really just
27:41
a question of like do you you know, do you have a good idea,
27:45
are you working really hard? Are you able to attract a great team
27:49
and motivate the team, and that I mean that that's sort of really what
27:55
matters. But you've had multiple ideas. And there's another view, by the
27:57
way, which is that you can only really have one great idea, right
28:00
that everybody sort of has maybe maybe one grade. I started really the idea,
28:04
you know what I mean, Like there's adult saying it's one percent inspiration.
28:07
I think in nine nine per perspiration I think is generally true. I
28:11
mean a lot of times companies start out with with with an idea that's actually
28:15
wrong, but they adapt quickly enough to get it to something that that's right
28:22
right, And I can say like at the beginning of Tela, we started
28:26
out with we started the company with two false premises like that would turn out
28:30
to be like really dumb. One was that we'd be able to license the
28:37
drivetrain technology from a company called AC Propulsion in southern California and that it would
28:42
just work. That didn't That totally didn't work. And then we also thought
28:48
we'd be able to adapt the Lotus else chassis at low cost and be able
28:52
to essentially put the AC Propulsion drivetrain technology in a Lotus lease chassis and then
28:59
just build that quickly and and sell it, and that it would that that
29:03
would be okay. But but like I said, the AC propulsion technology did
29:08
not lend itself to any any kind of cost effective, reliable car. It
29:15
was okay for like a small prototype, but not not for a commercial product.
29:21
And and the and then the lotus e lease that that ended up being
29:26
worse than if we had designed a car from from the beginning, because we
29:30
ended up changing like ninety six percent of the components in the car and invalidating
29:37
all of the crash results and all the safety stuff. The car ended up
29:41
being thirty percent heavier, had to be longer, and it ended up being
29:45
like like if you if you want, if you had a house in mind,
29:48
and instead of actually building a house from scratch, you got some existing
29:52
house and ended up knocking everything except one wall in the basement out, and
29:56
and it would have been better to just build a house from the beginning,
30:00
the house you wanted. So so it basically Teesla was started on the basis
30:04
of two dumb ideas, and we managed to you know, it was a
30:10
tough one to overcome those two issues, but we managed to get get past
30:14
them. That's so, that's I think the more important thing is like start
30:18
somewhere and then you know, really be prepared to question your assumptions, fix
30:22
what you did wrong, and adapt to reality. How did you run two
30:26
companies at the same time? Jack Dorsey is about to take this on in
30:29
a meaningful way? What is that? What is a day in the life
30:32
of Elon Muscar actually look like? Yeah, I wouldn't recommend running two companies.
30:40
It really it decreases your freedom quite a lot. So and and I'll
30:49
tell you what, So, my day is probably a bit different than people
30:53
think it is. Most of my time is actually spent on engineering in design,
31:00
so that's probably I don't know, like seventy percent of my time.
31:06
Like propressed stuff like this is maybe two or three percent of my time.
31:11
It's really really tiny, and I'm going to reduce it even further. It's
31:15
probably like one percent of my time. So