Latest / Financial Survival Network / Is Silver the New Oil? - Michael Arries #6358

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Is Silver the New Oil? - Michael Arries #6358 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The manufacturing demand is so strong and the supply is
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: not there for it. But you know, it's not like
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: we're going to stop building AI data centers. It's not
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: like Tesla's going to stop building cyber trucks. That's going
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: to keep going. So now it's a supply and demand
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  Speaker 1: issue in the physical market. We've anticipated this for a
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  Speaker 1: long long time. The recipe was there, it made sense.
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  Speaker 1: It was just a matter of when it hits. And
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  Speaker 1: I don't think anyone necessarily gets its twenty twenty five,
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  Speaker 1: but you know, then twenty twenty five silver takes off
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  Speaker 1: and no one can stop it.
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  Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie. Let'sa's Financial Survival Network where
• 0:32
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• 0:36
  Speaker 2: to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
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  Speaker 2: dot com and get your free newsletter in gift Financial
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• 0:56
  Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Michael Aries is
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: with us now. Michael, Hey, I know we're collectively popping
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  Speaker 3: the champagne corks. The run up in silver especially has
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  Speaker 3: been nothing short of stupendous, but nothing less forever. It's
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  Speaker 3: a parabolic move, so you got to be a little wary.
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  Speaker 1: Right, Well, it depends depends on where we are in
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  Speaker 1: that parabolic move. So yeah, thanks again for having me back,
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  Speaker 1: Carrie love being here's Yeah, I guess it really depends
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  Speaker 1: on where we're at. If we're just out of the
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  Speaker 1: starting gate, they'll then hang on for the ride, you know.
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  Speaker 1: If we've made three or four laps, then be looking
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  Speaker 1: at okay, am I getting close to the finish And honestly,
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  Speaker 1: I think we're just out of the starting gate. I
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  Speaker 1: think this can go much higher. So people might say, oh,
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  Speaker 1: silver went from forty or fifty to almost ninety right now,
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  Speaker 1: recently it's like, oh, it's gone too high, it's gone
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  Speaker 1: straight up. I should probably sell some and well there's
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  Speaker 1: a way to do that that's beneficial. We were talking
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  Speaker 1: about trading silver gold before if you started at the
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  Speaker 1: right ratio. But even just thinking about getting getting out
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  Speaker 1: of metals or reducing our position, I just don't think
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  Speaker 1: we're there yet. We haven't fixed anything, not only with
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  Speaker 1: the money printing that's been going on forever, but any
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  Speaker 1: of our geopolitical issues, any of the supply issues. And
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  Speaker 1: that's been the big thing with silvery. There's there's we're
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  Speaker 1: using it up, there's not enough supply. Now we're catching
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  Speaker 1: up to the physical supply. So we haven't fixed any
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  Speaker 1: of the problems that are driving this move. So we're
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  Speaker 1: just we're just getting going as crazy as it seems.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, we got to look for some pretty
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  Speaker 1: significant changes compared to what we see now before we
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  Speaker 1: start saying, Okay, now now it's time to start selling.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be much higher prices, higher
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  Speaker 1: triple digit prices before we get to the Oh, gotta
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  Speaker 1: gotta start, gotta start getting getting out of this before
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  Speaker 1: it drops.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with you. I think it's
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  Speaker 3: got a ways to go. But but what's happening with
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  Speaker 3: the paper metal market. It seems to me it's broken,
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  Speaker 3: and uh, it's not going to get fixed anytime soon. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: What's interesting to me, Carrie, is that the paper manipulation
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  Speaker 1: games that we've seen happen in silver aren't working anymore,
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  Speaker 1: Like they're literally ineffective. So I was here at mclvany
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  Speaker 1: Precious Metals in twenty eleven, when in May of twenty eleven,
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  Speaker 1: silver got to fifty for the second time in history,
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  Speaker 1: and the comics smashed it. They raised margin requirements like
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  Speaker 1: nine times in one week, so you know, got to
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  Speaker 1: fifty and then it was back down to thirty five
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  Speaker 1: within a few days, and it was crushing. But here
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  Speaker 1: they are this time now trying it again as silver
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  Speaker 1: went over fifty. I'm trying to look on the chart
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  Speaker 1: the other day. It was a few weeks ago, but
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  Speaker 1: the day it was getting around sixty two sixty three,
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  Speaker 1: big margin requirement change, big intry day, sell off, and
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  Speaker 1: then the next day ripping right back up, and it's like, oh,
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  Speaker 1: it's not working anymore. The paper games they play the
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  Speaker 1: paper market in silver where they naked short it manipulate
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  Speaker 1: the price down. It's not working, and there's too much
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  Speaker 1: of a need for physical for whether it's Samsung or Tistler, whoever,
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  Speaker 1: they've got to have it. They got to pay any
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  Speaker 1: price for it because they're not going to stop with
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  Speaker 1: their making and building, right, So the paper games aren't
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  Speaker 1: aren't working anymore. And now now it's you know, pushing ninety,
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  Speaker 1: and it's like, well, so much for them. Keeping it down.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, that's like we had another margin increase
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  Speaker 3: last night, right, and again silver is up you know
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  Speaker 3: three bucks an ounce, yep.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're getting these big swings too. It's hard
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  Speaker 1: to keep keep track of that when the range can
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  Speaker 1: be you know, ten dollars, you know, up one day
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  Speaker 1: and down two days later and then back up. But yeah,
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  Speaker 1: the margin, these margin hikes are not working. It's like, okay,
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  Speaker 1: what is it going to take to cause enough selling
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  Speaker 1: to push silver down, to overwhelm the buying pressure that
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  Speaker 1: there is. I mean when I look at the price charts,
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  Speaker 1: the buying pressure is crazy. You know, I watch this
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  Speaker 1: all day as I'm advising clients and and doing trades
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  Speaker 1: for clients, and you know, every little drop get gets
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  Speaker 1: bought and it shoots back up and then drops again,
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  Speaker 1: boom gets bought and drops it. And it's been doing
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  Speaker 1: that for months. There's so much buying pressure it's crazy
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  Speaker 1: and it's not stopping. And now there's so many support
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  Speaker 1: lines on the price charge, so it's like what what
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  Speaker 1: what can they do to push it down? What can
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  Speaker 1: the paper market do to push it down? There's just
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  Speaker 1: every opportunity gets bought up now.
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  Speaker 3: Well, so I've heard some people talk about force masure.
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  Speaker 3: Do you think that's a possibility here.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's a very good possibility. I just don't know.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I can't predict where it's going to come from,
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  Speaker 1: when it's going to come from. But yeah, if you're
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  Speaker 1: talking about you know, something like that where you know,
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  Speaker 1: someone asks for delivery and it's not there and suddenly,
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  Speaker 1: you know, some big exchange has to go get it
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  Speaker 1: wherever they can find it and pay whatever price they
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  Speaker 1: have to pay for it. I mean, we're definitely in
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  Speaker 1: an environment where that could happen, whether that's now or
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  Speaker 1: whether that's you know, when silver gets to one hundred
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  Speaker 1: and fifty dollars an ounce. You know, those are the
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  Speaker 1: kind of things we talked about years and years ago
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  Speaker 1: when silver was still twenty and it's sort of you know,
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  Speaker 1: you're sort of imagining off in the future and like, oh,
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  Speaker 1: this could happen. The elements are there, you know, now
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  Speaker 1: in this environment, it's like, yeah, that could happen tomorrow.
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  Speaker 1: Could that could easily happen? So who you know, who
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  Speaker 1: knows when or how, but the situation is right for that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, some big player, you know, some manufacturer needs
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  Speaker 1: so much silver, they take, they go to get the
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  Speaker 1: delivery their contracts and there's not enough. Yeah, who's going
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  Speaker 1: to sell it to them? What price are they going
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  Speaker 1: to have to pay?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah? Well, and then you have no price discovery at
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  Speaker 3: the COMEX anymore. And then it really becomes a physical
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  Speaker 3: only market, right.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's what it's turning into. I think
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  Speaker 1: that's why the price is going up like this. It's
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  Speaker 1: the manufacturing demand is so strong and the supply is
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  Speaker 1: not there for it. But you know, it's not like
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: we're going to stop building AI data centers. It's not
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: like Tesla's going to stop building cyber trucks. That's going
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: to keep going. So now it's a supply and demand
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  Speaker 1: issue the physical market. We've anticipated this for a long
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  Speaker 1: long time. The recipe was there, it made sense. It
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  Speaker 1: was just a matter of when it hits, and I
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  Speaker 1: don't think anyone necessarily guessed it was twenty twenty five.
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  Speaker 1: But you know, then twenty twenty five, silver takes off
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  Speaker 1: and no one can stop it because yeah, we need it,
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  Speaker 1: we need it for AI, and there's not enough to
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  Speaker 1: go around. That's just not like a big pile sitting there,
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  Speaker 1: everyone goes to it. It's not like a big pile
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  Speaker 1: of gravel at the you know, landscape store. We're just,
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  Speaker 1: you know, go take another shovelful, like it's not there.
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  Speaker 3: Do you think they'll confiscate or expropriate at some point?
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  Speaker 3: I hope not.
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  Speaker 1: I tend to want to be one of those that
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  Speaker 1: doesn't think that that'll happen, that that we'll get there.
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  Speaker 1: Certainly the ingredients are there for that as well. There's laws,
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  Speaker 1: there's precedent, there's need for it. I mentioned it in
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  Speaker 1: a webinar I did for clients recently that yeah, the
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  Speaker 1: the US put it on the Critical Minerals list just
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  Speaker 1: in November, so certainly the possibility is there. I hope
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  Speaker 1: it doesn't get to that. I hope we don't have to,
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  Speaker 1: you know, barter with it or hide it or whatever,
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  Speaker 1: try to sell it somewhere else in the world where
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  Speaker 1: we can actually get our money out of it. But
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  Speaker 1: it's certainly possible, but I would think that it's not
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  Speaker 1: beneficial enough to do that quite yet for the government,
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  Speaker 1: and they'll still let it trade freely. But I don't know,
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  Speaker 1: I don't know. I guess we need to be prepared
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  Speaker 1: for anything.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, well they've done it before, and unlike last time,
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  Speaker 3: which was purely for monetary purposes, this time they would
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  Speaker 3: use national defense and basically shortage and the need for
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  Speaker 3: weaponry for AI for everything. And we both know there's
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  Speaker 3: no substitute for.
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  Speaker 1: Silver, right right, Yeah, yeah, we can't use copper, we
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  Speaker 1: can't use other things, the applications for silver inelectronics, there's
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  Speaker 1: no replacement for it. So we have to have it.
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  Speaker 1: And now China's restricting exports of it. They're the biggest
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  Speaker 1: refiner and one of the biggest miners, and we're entering
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  Speaker 1: this Cold War two point zero, you know, after we
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  Speaker 1: went into Venezuela. You know, we're trying to assert our
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  Speaker 1: authority in the region and as you know, China had
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  Speaker 1: been trying to get in there, and so there's this
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  Speaker 1: new Cold War going on. So yeah, of course we're
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  Speaker 1: we're gonna need it for defense purposes and build up,
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  Speaker 1: and China's restricting it. So yeah, it could get to
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  Speaker 1: that point, or it could just get more and more expensive.
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  Speaker 1: As you know, you've got a new player in the game.
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  Speaker 1: You've got the government buying it up for everything they
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  Speaker 1: needed for and still again not enough to go around.
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  Speaker 3: So all right, so what are you supposed to do here? Like, obviously,
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  Speaker 3: when you see silver nearly triple and the gold going
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  Speaker 3: so much higher, people you're going to be wary of
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  Speaker 3: putting more money, worrying that you're catching the top. Right.
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  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I think I've had a lot of folks
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  Speaker 1: that are wanting to get on the trend and not
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  Speaker 1: miss it, and they're still buying now. Some that have
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: wanted to sell when it's high like this. But I
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  Speaker 1: think a couple of things carry one. I think we're
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  Speaker 1: going much higher. I think we can see two hundred
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  Speaker 1: three hundred dollars silver. I don't know when. I'm not
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  Speaker 1: going to make timing predictions, so whether it's next year
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  Speaker 1: or this year, we can see multiple triple digit silver.
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  Speaker 1: So it's not too late to buy. It's just a
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  Speaker 1: matter of hanging on for the ride and whatever price
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  Speaker 1: volatility we go through. Second, for anyone that has bought
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  Speaker 1: previously and has big gains in silver, really anytime in
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  Speaker 1: the last five years that you've bought silver was a
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  Speaker 1: much higher price ratio to gold, and now at this
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  Speaker 1: point you can trade your silver for more gold than
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  Speaker 1: you could have bought originally if you'd bought gold, so
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  Speaker 1: capturing some of this over performance in silver, capturing some
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  Speaker 1: of those profits in gold and in free ounces of gold.
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  Speaker 1: So still keeping your precious metals position, having that wealth protection,
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  Speaker 1: but also reallocating taking profits out of silver, having less
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: volatility in gold is a great way to do it.
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  Speaker 1: So if we still see silver go to two hundred, great,
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  Speaker 1: keep some of your silver, but you know, don't sell
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  Speaker 1: it now and then wish you had kept it.
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  Speaker 3: But trade a portion for gold.
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  Speaker 1: Get some free ounces of gold if you started, you know,
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  Speaker 1: anytime in the last few years when the ratio is
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: eighty to one or one hundred to one. Now at
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  Speaker 1: fifty to one, yeah, trade it for extra free gold.
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  Speaker 1: So reallocate a little bit, keep your precious metals position,
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  Speaker 1: lock in that over performance in free ounces, and still
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: hang on for the ride. Because again, we haven't fixed anything.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: This isn't I don't think the end of prices are
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  Speaker 1: the end of the trend. Be prepared for volatility and
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: sell offs. Maybe some resistance points here on the price chart,
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  Speaker 1: but we're not done overall. I don't think.
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  Speaker 3: All right, Well, that's pretty much my take on it
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  Speaker 3: as well, And so if you're not in it, you
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: need to get in it now, maybe because you might
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: not have the opportunity later. And hey, if the government
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: goes knocking on everybody's doors trying to get their silver,
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  Speaker 3: they're obviously going to be paying a huge premium over
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: whatever we believe the physical price is.
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  Speaker 1: Right, probably hopefully.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, So how do we find you? How
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: do we connect with you? Read your work Michael?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: H Yeah, if you go to mcelvany dot com, forward
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: slash Michael mcilvanny's mc a l v a n y
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  Speaker 1: mckelvaney forward slash Michael, or just call or text me
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: nine seven zero four five nine four six one one.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: I'm available to chat and advise and answer questions and
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: help folks navigate these markets.
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  Speaker 3: Excellent. Appreciate you. Coming on. I've got a question for
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: Michael myself. Shoot me an email and it's kl at
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: carrie lets dot com. Make sure you go over to
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: the substack Financial Survival Network dot com or Kerrie Lets
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: dot com and subscribe so you get the latest info.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: Really appreciate you being with us, Michael. We'll talk to
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: you again soon.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: All right, Thanks, carry appreciate it, Thanks for listening.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: To Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's
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  Speaker 2: trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: Financial Survival Network now more than ever,