Latest / Pod Save America / “Joe’s Super Tuesday.”
Transcript
- 0:20Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
- 0:22Speaker 2: I'm Jon Lovett.
- 0:22Speaker 3: I'm Tommy Vitor.
- 0:23Speaker 4: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
- 0:24Speaker 1: On today's pod, we'll dig into the results of a
- 0:26Speaker 1: stunning Super Tuesday that catapulted Joe Biden to the front
- 0:29Speaker 1: of the Democratic field. We'll also be taking a look
- 0:32Speaker 1: at some of the down-ballot results for the U.S. House
- 0:34Speaker 1: and Senate. I feel like we were just here five
- 0:37Speaker 1: minutes ago, guys.
- 0:38Speaker 3: We were, John. I slept here.
- 0:39Speaker 1: That's how committed we are. Tommy's been crunching precinct numbers
- 0:44Speaker 1: all night.
- 0:44Speaker 3: Just punditing all night long.
- 0:46Speaker 2: Minority report over here. Let's get him out of the tub.
- 0:50Speaker 1: Tell me, what'd you and Ben get into on Pod
- 0:52Speaker 1: Save the World yesterday? Man, you've been potting nonstop. Who
- 0:55Speaker 1: fucking cares?
- 0:56Speaker 3: No, I'm just kidding. We talked about the very fragile
- 0:58Speaker 3: peace deal with the Taliban in the U.S. It was
- 1:00Speaker 3: signed over the weekend, which is already unraveling. I just
- 1:03Speaker 3: saw a newsletter that said U.S. strikes Taliban in first
- 1:06Speaker 3: hit since peace deal, which is a weird headline. We
- 1:08Speaker 3: also talked about the conflict in Syria and interviewed a
- 1:11Speaker 3: woman who's doing incredible relief work in Idlib province, which
- 1:15Speaker 3: is where there is maybe a million people living in
- 1:18Speaker 3: tents or outside and She's helping get the money in
- 1:21Speaker 3: medical supplies and food. So check it out. Stay for
- 1:23Speaker 3: the interview. And that's it.
- 1:25Speaker 4: Tommy, are you watching Homeland this season?
- 1:27Speaker 1: No, but I've heard there's a lot of parallels.
- 1:28Speaker 4: It is explicitly about a fragile Taliban peace deal negotiated
- 1:33Speaker 4: in part by Carrie Matheson.
- 1:35Speaker 3: Wow.
- 1:35Speaker 1: Interesting.
- 1:36Speaker 4: I know it's missing from the discourse, but.
- 1:41Speaker 2: Okay.
- 1:43Speaker 1: One reminder, no matter how this primary shakes out, our
- 1:46Speaker 1: nominee needs a ground game for the general election. Donate
- 1:50Speaker 1: to our Leave It All on the Field Fund to
- 1:52Speaker 1: help groups on the ground do the work we need.
- 1:54Speaker 1: It's supporting organizers in battleground states. We need to get
- 1:57Speaker 1: those organizers on the ground now while we're still having
- 2:00Speaker 1: a primary because Donald Trump is spending and he's spending fast.
- 2:03Speaker 1: So please go to votesaveamerica.com slash field and give a
- 2:08Speaker 1: few bucks today. All right, let's get to the news.
- 2:13Speaker 1: And let's start with the most dramatic political comeback I
- 2:16Speaker 1: think I've ever seen. It was only a month ago
- 2:19Speaker 1: that former Vice President Joe Biden finished fourth in the
- 2:22Speaker 1: Iowa caucuses, fifth in the New Hampshire primary, couldn't afford
- 2:26Speaker 1: many ads, couldn't afford much of a field operation, couldn't
- 2:30Speaker 1: get any more endorsements, seemed like his campaign was finished.
- 2:34Speaker 1: Last night, he won the most pledged delegates in nine
- 2:36Speaker 1: out of 14 Super Tuesday states, including Texas. Virginia, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maine, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee,
- 2:45Speaker 1: and Oklahoma. Bernie Sanders won the biggest prize, California, as
- 2:48Speaker 1: well as his home state of Vermont, Utah, and Colorado.
- 2:51Speaker 1: Biden's string of victories also forced billionaire former mayor Mike
- 2:55Speaker 1: Bloomberg from the race, who dropped out this morning and
- 2:57Speaker 1: endorsed the former vice president. So, I want to get
- 3:01Speaker 1: into Biden and Bernie individually, and I know a lot
- 3:05Speaker 1: of delegates haven't been allocated, especially in California. which takes
- 3:08Speaker 1: a few weeks to count all of our votes here.
- 3:10Speaker 1: But Dan, what does the big picture, what does the
- 3:14Speaker 1: big delegate picture look like right now?
- 3:16Speaker 4: It looks as we see it here today that Biden
- 3:18Speaker 4: is in the poll position to end the primary with
- 3:20Speaker 4: the most pledged delegates, which is a shocking turn of
- 3:23Speaker 4: events since everyone believed in a crowded field that Bernie
- 3:27Speaker 4: Sanders would clean up on Super Tuesday. The winnowing of
- 3:31Speaker 4: the field helped Joe Biden incredibly, but also This was
- 3:35Speaker 4: supposed to be Bernie Sanders' best delegate day. This was
- 3:38Speaker 4: a very strong set of states for him. There were
- 3:41Speaker 4: states he did well in in 2016. California and Texas
- 3:44Speaker 4: were these two big delegate pots that we thought he
- 3:49Speaker 4: would do very well in. And Biden massively outperformed. And
- 3:52Speaker 4: so now the road for Bernie Sanders after this is
- 3:56Speaker 4: much harder because Biden's strongest states are still to come.
- 4:01Speaker 4: States with large African-American... populations and significant suburban cohorts of voters.
- 4:08Speaker 4: And those states are going to come later. And so
- 4:10Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders has a lot of ground to make up
- 4:12Speaker 4: if he wants to be the Democratic nominee.
- 4:14Speaker 1: Yeah. Tommy was saying this on the last pod that,
- 4:18Speaker 1: you know, in every primary gets to the point where
- 4:20Speaker 1: is it about momentum? Is it about demographics? Going forward,
- 4:23Speaker 1: based on the results we saw last night, we can
- 4:25Speaker 1: start seeing which demographics are good for which candidates. And
- 4:28Speaker 1: then you can start looking at the states and figuring
- 4:30Speaker 1: out who's going to do well in those states.
- 4:32Speaker 3: No, I think that is true. But I would just
- 4:34Speaker 3: say that, you know, I think demographically, a lot of people,
- 4:37Speaker 3: one of the Nates, I believe, thought that Michigan would
- 4:39Speaker 3: be a great Bernie state. But there was a poll
- 4:41Speaker 3: out last night that I think has Biden up seven points. Well,
- 4:45Speaker 3: that is a canary in the coal mine.
- 4:47Speaker 1: And the reason that is, is because the one demographic
- 4:50Speaker 1: that they're still fighting over is non-college educated white voters,
- 4:54Speaker 1: which Bernie Sanders expected to have a lot of strength with.
- 4:56Speaker 1: And Joe Biden has sort of eaten into his lead
- 4:59Speaker 1: with those voters. So And we'll talk about that later.
- 5:01Speaker 1: I think a lot of the ads are about sort
- 5:03Speaker 1: of that cohort of voters. But it is fascinating because
- 5:07Speaker 1: we were sitting here a couple of weeks ago talking
- 5:09Speaker 1: about Bernie Sanders potentially netting three to four hundred delegates
- 5:14Speaker 1: last night. And then as the polls got closer and
- 5:16Speaker 1: Biden did better and he won South Carolina, we were like, well,
- 5:19Speaker 1: a really great night for Biden could be Bernie walking
- 5:22Speaker 1: away with a 100 delegate lead. And now we're sitting
- 5:26Speaker 1: here talking about Biden as the delegate leader. I mean,
- 5:28Speaker 1: that is just a fucking stunning turnaround. What to you
- 5:30Speaker 1: guys were some of the most surprising wins last night?
- 5:33Speaker 2: I think Biden winning in Texas was surprising.
- 5:37Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 5:37Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, that was, you know, look.
- 5:39Speaker 1: Only our friends at Data for Progress captured in one
- 5:41Speaker 1: last poll.
- 5:42Speaker 2: One last poll, yeah.
- 5:42Speaker 1: One last poll a couple days before.
- 5:44Speaker 4: 538 model, too.
- 5:45Speaker 2: 538, yeah.
- 5:45Speaker 1: They've been predicting it.
- 5:46Speaker 4: Since that fell out, which is very impressive. Yeah, since that.
- 5:47Speaker 5: I mean, it's hard to say what's surprising is the
- 5:49Speaker 5: dramatic shift that happened in three days. You know, I
- 5:51Speaker 5: feel like we've talked about not being in the prediction
- 5:52Speaker 5: business anymore. And, you know, we... We're talking about just
- 5:56Speaker 5: how many things had to go right for Joe Biden
- 5:59Speaker 5: to be in a position to do well on Super Tuesday.
- 6:01Speaker 2: And every one of those things went right.
- 6:03Speaker 5: The fact that a consolidation behind Joe Biden that people
- 6:07Speaker 5: had been lamenting, people who wanted Joe Biden or a
- 6:09Speaker 5: non-Sanders person to win, people who wanted that consolidation to
- 6:13Speaker 5: happen were lamenting for weeks and weeks.
- 6:15Speaker 2: Like, where's the consolidation? Where's the consolidation? And it just
- 6:17Speaker 2: happened to happen in this incredibly short window.
- 6:19Speaker 1: Well, in some of the big surprises in the states, Minnesota...
- 6:24Speaker 1: Minnesota was a surprise to me. Where Bernie polled well
- 6:26Speaker 1: and won the 2016 caucus by 22 points. It's now
- 6:29Speaker 1: a primary and Joe Biden won it.
- 6:31Speaker 3: That is a big story. The number of states that
- 6:33Speaker 3: shifted from caucus to primary really hurt Bernie because I
- 6:36Speaker 3: think he was able to organize a smaller group of
- 6:40Speaker 3: people who really, really loved Bernie Sanders and met a
- 6:42Speaker 3: lot of delegates last time. And when you look, I mean,
- 6:45Speaker 3: we'll talk about this more, but The big concern for
- 6:48Speaker 3: Bernie coming out tonight is that his base seems to
- 6:50Speaker 3: be shrinking, not growing from his 2016 margin. And a
- 6:53Speaker 3: lot of that can be attributed to caucus states going
- 6:55Speaker 3: to primaries, but he's still down in a bunch of
- 6:57Speaker 3: primary states as well.
- 6:59Speaker 1: Massachusetts was not a state that Joe Biden was expected
- 7:02Speaker 1: to win. Maine, also a state that was called just
- 7:05Speaker 1: this morning that Bernie Sanders is expected to do well in. Oklahoma,
- 7:09Speaker 1: which Bernie won in 2016, lost last night. And then
- 7:13Speaker 1: In Virginia, you know, Biden was expected to win, but
- 7:15Speaker 1: I think the margin in Virginia and the turnout in
- 7:18Speaker 1: Virginia surprised pretty much everyone. I think the interesting thing
- 7:23Speaker 1: about the surprise states is this was basically supposed to
- 7:28Speaker 1: be a night where, at his best, Joe Biden did
- 7:30Speaker 1: really well in the South and that Bernie would do
- 7:33Speaker 1: well in the Northeast, in the Midwest, and then certainly
- 7:36Speaker 1: in the West. And at least in the Northeast and
- 7:38Speaker 1: the Midwest, where I'm pointing to the map, pointing to
- 7:42Speaker 1: our map over there, Tim. where, you know, Bernie did
- 7:46Speaker 1: really well in Iowa, and then Bernie did really well
- 7:49Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. Joe Biden showed that he had strength
- 7:51Speaker 1: in both of those regions. All right, let's talk about
- 7:54Speaker 1: how Biden turned this around and what he has to
- 7:55Speaker 1: do next. Here's a clip of his victory speech from
- 7:57Speaker 1: last night.
- 7:58Speaker 6: People are talking about a revolution. We started a movement.
- 8:01Speaker 6: We've increased turnout. The turnout's turnout for us.
- 8:09Speaker 2: That can deliver us.
- 8:10Speaker 7: To a moment where we can do extraordinary, extraordinary things. Look,
- 8:15Speaker 7: our agenda is bold, it's progressive, it's a vision where
- 8:19Speaker 7: healthcare is affordable and available to everybody in America.
- 8:23Speaker 6: Where we bring drug prices down under control with no
- 8:26Speaker 6: more surprise billing. Access to hospitals in rural areas as
- 8:30Speaker 6: well as urban areas. Access to care. A bold vision
- 8:36Speaker 6: where we invest billions of dollars to find, and I
- 8:38Speaker 6: promise you, cures for cancer, Alzheimer's, and diabetes. Standing up
- 8:46Speaker 6: to and beating the NRA and the gun manufacturers. And
- 8:53Speaker 6: leading the world to take on the existential debt of
- 8:56Speaker 6: climate change.
- 9:01Speaker 5: Hearing it is actually a much worse experience than seeing it.
- 9:04Speaker 5: It looks better when he was up there. When you
- 9:07Speaker 5: hear it, you just hear the tenor of his voice.
- 9:09Speaker 5: And I think someone should just let the vice president
- 9:12Speaker 5: know about the power microphones out these days and how
- 9:14Speaker 5: incredible they are at amplifying sound.
- 9:16Speaker 1: He was pretty excited last night.
- 9:17Speaker 2: He was very excited. There was that one point where
- 9:19Speaker 2: he goes like, they were counting me out. They were
- 9:21Speaker 2: calling me dead. Now they're saying the other guy might
- 9:23Speaker 2: be dead.
- 9:24Speaker 5: He was practically going to go down his list of
- 9:26Speaker 5: grievances to nail to the church door.
- 9:30Speaker 3: Remember when it was a controversy and people attacked Joe
- 9:33Speaker 3: Biden earlier in the campaign for promising to cure cancer?
- 9:36Speaker 3: That's how many lifetimes he's gone through.
- 9:38Speaker 4: He definitely said that with the knowledge of that controversy.
- 9:42Speaker 1: Just one of the many stupid things on Twitter that
- 9:45Speaker 1: did not matter to voters at all. Nope. All right,
- 9:48Speaker 1: so what happened in the Democratic primary that led to
- 9:50Speaker 1: this comeback? Lovett, you started talking about the consolidation.
- 9:54Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean.
- 9:55Speaker 1: What was the path here?
- 9:56Speaker 5: Here's what it has felt like in the last few weeks,
- 9:58Speaker 5: which is just that a lot of things, that we
- 10:00Speaker 5: thought would happen sooner just happened later. You know, the
- 10:04Speaker 5: first time that people started going after Bernie Sanders seemed
- 10:08Speaker 5: to happen later. Now the consolidation we thought should have
- 10:11Speaker 5: happened earlier happened just in the final moments before Super Tuesday.
- 10:15Speaker 5: And I do think also, you know, one thing we're just...
- 10:18Speaker 5: Inside of is just all voters becoming pundits. And one
- 10:22Speaker 5: of the things that a lot of the exit poll
- 10:23Speaker 5: shows is how many people who decided late decided to
- 10:25Speaker 5: vote for Joe Biden. And so I think there are
- 10:27Speaker 5: a lot of people watching and really paying attention and
- 10:30Speaker 5: holding their votes to the last minute. And Joe Biden
- 10:32Speaker 5: winning in South Carolina, getting all those endorsements, becoming the
- 10:35Speaker 5: kind of alternative and seeing all of these leaders in
- 10:39Speaker 5: the Democratic movement rally behind Joe Biden in the final
- 10:41Speaker 5: moment gave people the final push they needed to say, OK,
- 10:46Speaker 5: I'll go with Biden.
- 10:47Speaker 3: His late deciders and African-American voters were the story of
- 10:50Speaker 3: the night for him. Bernie had real strength among Latino voters,
- 10:54Speaker 3: especially in California. I think he got 49% of Latino
- 10:57Speaker 3: voters to Biden's 12 in California. But that was really
- 11:00Speaker 3: the only bright spot for Bernie in terms of turnout.
- 11:03Speaker 3: I mean, he won younger voters, but they did not
- 11:05Speaker 3: turn out in numbers that in any way backs up
- 11:08Speaker 3: his claim of riding that demographic to a general election victory.
- 11:12Speaker 3: It's very problematic for his entire campaign narrative.
- 11:16Speaker 1: Yeah. Dan?
- 11:16Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 11:16Speaker 4: Ultimately, Bernie Sanders had a very clear path and a
- 11:19Speaker 4: very strong strategy around winning the Democratic nomination with 30%
- 11:23Speaker 4: to 35% of the vote. And once the field winnowed,
- 11:27Speaker 4: that is not a number sufficient to win, even in
- 11:29Speaker 4: your strongest states. And there's real concerning signs in all
- 11:35Speaker 4: the numbers, I think, for Bernie Sanders. It's not too
- 11:36Speaker 4: late to turn it around, but there's work that needs
- 11:38Speaker 4: to be done, and we can talk about that. But
- 11:40Speaker 4: in Biden's strong states, he claimed the overwhelming amount of
- 11:46Speaker 4: the non-Bernie vote. So a lot of Bloomberg people in
- 11:50Speaker 4: Biden's strong states went to Biden, therefore pushing Bloomberg below threshold,
- 11:54Speaker 4: allowing Biden to split the delegates among two people as
- 11:56Speaker 4: opposed to three. In Bernie states, he was not able
- 11:59Speaker 4: to expand, and Bloomberg, and in some cases Warren, also
- 12:02Speaker 4: got delegates. So Biden's strong states netted more delegates for him.
- 12:06Speaker 4: Bernie's strong states netted fewer delegates for him with California
- 12:08Speaker 4: still to be called.
- 12:09Speaker 3: Like Colorado is especially a good example of where Bernie
- 12:12Speaker 3: needed people like Warren and others to not be viable,
- 12:15Speaker 3: but they were and they got delegates.
- 12:16Speaker 1: Yeah, I was thinking about this. We've been talking about
- 12:19Speaker 1: how the lane theory of the primary isn't perfect, right?
- 12:22Speaker 1: That voters don't exactly see all these candidates in a
- 12:25Speaker 1: moderate lane or a liberal lane or lefty lane or
- 12:28Speaker 1: whatever it may be. But it does seem that when
- 12:31Speaker 1: it comes to Bernie specifically- that there were Bernie supporters
- 12:36Speaker 1: and then a whole bunch of the party that were
- 12:37Speaker 1: non-Bernie supporters. And I think Elizabeth Warren has a chunk
- 12:42Speaker 1: of supporters that would probably vote for Bernie or could
- 12:46Speaker 1: be Bernie backers. But for a lot of other candidates,
- 12:49Speaker 1: they were all fighting for a similar share of the vote.
- 12:53Speaker 1: And after New Hampshire, I remember a lot of people said, oh, well,
- 12:56Speaker 1: if you combine the votes of Pete and Amy and
- 12:59Speaker 1: some of the other folks, it's much bigger than Bernie's margin.
- 13:03Speaker 1: And a lot of Bernie supporters sort of mocked that.
- 13:05Speaker 1: But it turns out that when those candidates dropped out
- 13:08Speaker 1: and consolidated around one person, it really was a lot
- 13:10Speaker 1: bigger than Bernie's market.
- 13:10Speaker 3: I also don't think that a majority of Warren voters
- 13:13Speaker 3: would go to Bernie. In fact, I think they are
- 13:14Speaker 3: more likely to be college-educated women who are late deciders
- 13:18Speaker 3: who would have gone to Biden.
- 13:19Speaker 2: I think that's right.
- 13:20Speaker 3: So this whole theory of the case, there's so many
- 13:21Speaker 3: Bernie people online this week blaming Elizabeth Warren for his
- 13:26Speaker 3: defeat and saying she failed to consolidate the progressive vote
- 13:29Speaker 3: around Bernie Sanders. you are telling yourself a story that
- 13:34Speaker 3: is not backed up by the data.
- 13:36Speaker 1: Yeah. So let's talk about how Joe Biden won, which
- 13:38Speaker 1: voters he won. Tommy, you mentioned he dominated with black voters.
- 13:42Speaker 1: And of course, I do think the biggest story is
- 13:44Speaker 1: he dominated with the voters who decided in the last
- 13:46Speaker 1: couple of days. It's interesting. The only states that Bernie
- 13:50Speaker 1: outperformed the 538 projections are vote by mail states.
- 13:55Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 13:56Speaker 5: Like in Virginia, Virginia tells one part of the story
- 13:58Speaker 5: and California tells the other. And, and, and, Bernie was
- 14:01Speaker 5: always gonna do well in California, but.
- 14:03Speaker 1: And Utah was vote by mail and Colorado was vote
- 14:05Speaker 1: by mail and he did well in those two states too.
- 14:07Speaker 1: And so I think, someone said that late deciders broke
- 14:10Speaker 1: like 51-21 for Joe Biden, which is just a crushing,
- 14:15Speaker 1: crushing margin. I saw 47-17.
- 14:18Speaker 3: 47-17.
- 14:19Speaker 1: So other groups of voters he won, he won women,
- 14:22Speaker 1: he won voters over 45, he won registered Democrats and Republicans,
- 14:26Speaker 1: college graduates, moderate and conservative voters, somewhat liberal voters- which
- 14:31Speaker 1: I think is a key category for Joe Biden to
- 14:33Speaker 1: win somewhat liberal voters. Those, again, were a lot of
- 14:35Speaker 1: those voters that, like you said, Tommy, could be Warren voters,
- 14:39Speaker 1: could have been Pete and Amy voters. What does this
- 14:41Speaker 1: say to you guys about Joe Biden's coalition going forward
- 14:46Speaker 1: and how strong it is and maybe the challenges that
- 14:48Speaker 1: he has?
- 14:48Speaker 4: Within the context of the primary?
- 14:50Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 14:51Speaker 4: Well, I mean, he has a, at least for the
- 14:53Speaker 4: purposes of Super Tuesday, he put together the exact coalition
- 14:57Speaker 4: you need to win the Democratic nomination. which is you
- 14:59Speaker 4: have to dominate with African-American voters, which in terms of
- 15:02Speaker 4: the delegate math can be disproportionately advantageous to you because
- 15:05Speaker 4: of how districts are drawn. And he has suburban voters.
- 15:10Speaker 4: And so that combination is very similar to the one
- 15:14Speaker 4: that put Barack Obama over the top in 2008 and
- 15:17Speaker 4: Hillary Clinton over the top in 2016. Yeah.
- 15:20Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 15:21Speaker 3: I mean, look, in Texas, for example, the electorate skewed
- 15:24Speaker 3: older than it did in 2008 and in 2016. And
- 15:27Speaker 3: Biden won 65 and older voters 48 to 15. That
- 15:31Speaker 3: is very hard to come back from.
- 15:33Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 15:34Speaker 1: Yeah. I think Bernie is crushing among young people for sure.
- 15:38Speaker 1: But in some states, Biden showed some strength with 30
- 15:42Speaker 1: to 44 year olds. He showed some strength with younger
- 15:45Speaker 1: black voters. But even though Bernie is crushing among young
- 15:49Speaker 1: people and Latinos, which he is, youth turnout has been
- 15:53Speaker 1: down significantly. in some of these states, or at least
- 15:57Speaker 1: not quite, certainly not up. And the other problem for
- 16:01Speaker 1: Bernie is the states with the heavy Latino populations, the
- 16:04Speaker 1: heaviest Latino populations have voted. You've got Arizona and New
- 16:08Speaker 1: Mexico still on the map. And obviously there's Latino populations
- 16:11Speaker 1: in a lot of different states. But if those are
- 16:14Speaker 1: his two best groups, that's tough going forward. What are
- 16:17Speaker 1: Joe Biden's challenges, aside from coalition building, just message-wise, performance-wise,
- 16:22Speaker 1: going forward in the rest of this primary? If you're
- 16:24Speaker 1: in the Biden campaign right now and you're looking ahead
- 16:26Speaker 1: at the rest of the primary and you see Bernie
- 16:28Speaker 1: Sanders coming at you, what do you got to do?
- 16:32Speaker 5: I think the Joe Biden we saw give a speech
- 16:34Speaker 5: in South Carolina is the Joe Biden they need to
- 16:36Speaker 5: put out over and over again. And they need to,
- 16:38Speaker 5: I think, mitigate the challenges he's had in debates and
- 16:43Speaker 5: his performance.
- 16:44Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd worry about debate prep.
- 16:46Speaker 5: It's a performance question. I mean, as Dan said, he's
- 16:49Speaker 5: put together the coalition he needs to win. I think
- 16:51Speaker 5: the reason it took this long for people to rally
- 16:53Speaker 5: behind Joe Biden is because some of the questions about
- 16:55Speaker 5: his performance. And I see a lot of Bernie people saying,
- 17:00Speaker 5: he's making all these mistakes, he's doing all these gaffes,
- 17:01Speaker 5: how can people rally behind this? And I think those
- 17:04Speaker 5: are a bit over-torqued, but nonetheless, I do think that's
- 17:07Speaker 5: what Biden has to answer.
- 17:09Speaker 2: Dan?
- 17:09Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's performance, but I put two other things,
- 17:13Speaker 4: which is, He has to improve his performance with the
- 17:16Speaker 4: young voters, not necessarily for the purposes of winning this primary,
- 17:20Speaker 4: although that would certainly help. But he's not going to
- 17:23Speaker 4: be president if he cannot motivate young voters to turn out.
- 17:30Speaker 4: That is a key part of the 4 million Obama
- 17:33Speaker 4: 12 voters who did not turn out in 2016. So
- 17:35Speaker 4: you're going to have to get voters like that, particularly Madison, Wisconsin,
- 17:39Speaker 4: Ann Arbor, Michigan, places like that. The second is, if
- 17:42Speaker 4: he is going to be the nominee, he has to
- 17:44Speaker 4: find a way to land the plane that keeps the
- 17:47Speaker 4: party unified. And that was a huge challenge for the
- 17:51Speaker 4: Clinton campaign, I think, in 2016. Obviously, there was responsibility upon,
- 17:56Speaker 4: and this is all just presuming that Biden wins, which
- 17:58Speaker 4: is far from decided yet. But if he has been
- 18:00Speaker 4: the nominee, he has to become the nominee and unify
- 18:05Speaker 4: the party and welcome the Bernie Sanders coalition together. open arms.
- 18:08Speaker 1: You have to show some grace to the opposition. We're
- 18:11Speaker 1: going to talk about that Bernie needs to do that too,
- 18:13Speaker 1: but I do think that Joe Biden needs to do
- 18:15Speaker 1: that too. Back to the gaffes, I think that Joe
- 18:18Speaker 1: Biden can survive all the gaffes that people on Twitter
- 18:22Speaker 1: spend a lot of time obsessing over and the media
- 18:24Speaker 1: obsesses over if he has a strong message. To me,
- 18:27Speaker 1: the gaffes are not necessarily the problem. They're sort of
- 18:29Speaker 1: built into what you know about Joe Biden. He's going
- 18:31Speaker 1: to say some stuff that's off. But you need a
- 18:35Speaker 1: solid message. And I don't No. Look, you saw in
- 18:39Speaker 1: South Carolina, he talks about restoring the soul of the nation.
- 18:41Speaker 1: He talks about a return to decency. I think that's
- 18:43Speaker 1: part of it. I think he really now needs to
- 18:45Speaker 1: sharpen the economic message. And I think Bernie Sanders will
- 18:48Speaker 1: force him to do that because Bernie Sanders has a
- 18:50Speaker 1: very good economic message and he's going to come for
- 18:52Speaker 1: Joe Biden with it. But I think Joe Biden needs
- 18:54Speaker 1: to respond with an economic message of his own that
- 18:57Speaker 1: is partially rooted in his accomplishments as Barack Obama's vice president,
- 19:01Speaker 1: but also about the future and what he's planning to do.
- 19:05Speaker 1: And You know, a lot of people might not know this, but,
- 19:07Speaker 1: you know, if Joe Biden becomes president, he'll become president
- 19:11Speaker 1: running on the most progressive platform in history. Not as
- 19:14Speaker 1: progressive as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, but more progressive
- 19:17Speaker 1: than the president he served with.
- 19:19Speaker 5: Biden shouted during the speech last night, this election is
- 19:21Speaker 5: not about the past, it's about the future.
- 19:23Speaker 2: And it was sort of apropos of nothing.
- 19:25Speaker 5: And it wasn't on either side of that sentence backed
- 19:27Speaker 5: up by any kind of a message.
- 19:28Speaker 2: And that just doesn't cut it.
- 19:31Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he needs to do a better job
- 19:33Speaker 3: of laying out what he is affirmatively for. And Bernie's
- 19:36Speaker 3: about to come after him on a lot of old votes.
- 19:38Speaker 3: He's going to hammer him on the Iraq war vote.
- 19:40Speaker 3: They're already out with a new TV ad attacking Biden
- 19:45Speaker 3: for statements he's made in the past about cutting Social
- 19:47Speaker 3: Security benefits. And he needs to. lay out a progressive
- 19:51Speaker 3: policy agenda that helps blunt that. But also, I mean,
- 19:55Speaker 3: I wonder if voters are going to care more about
- 19:59Speaker 3: old votes, even massively problematic ones like the Iraq war
- 20:03Speaker 3: vote versus the ability to beat Trump. And I think
- 20:05Speaker 3: if Biden can project an ability and capability to stand
- 20:09Speaker 3: up there and debate him and kick his ass in November,
- 20:13Speaker 3: then he's likely to come out of this primary ahead.
- 20:16Speaker 1: Yeah. And like he has a progressive policy platform. He
- 20:19Speaker 1: just no one really knows what it is. He hasn't
- 20:23Speaker 1: he hasn't talked about it enough or at least it
- 20:25Speaker 1: hasn't broken through in any serious way. And I think
- 20:28Speaker 1: maybe the one advantage of a longer primary where he
- 20:30Speaker 1: goes head to head with Bernie Sanders is that, you know,
- 20:34Speaker 1: he gets to talk about that more or at least
- 20:35Speaker 1: he should.
- 20:36Speaker 5: Just one more thing on this too. I think there's
- 20:39Speaker 5: a mirror version of this for Bernie too. Would you
- 20:41Speaker 5: encourage him to be, in a world where everybody's a pundit,
- 20:44Speaker 5: would you encourage him to be incredibly direct in speaking
- 20:47Speaker 5: to young people that support Bernie Sanders, whether it's now,
- 20:49Speaker 5: whether it's soon, and make a direct plea to say,
- 20:53Speaker 5: you know, I welcome you into my movement and I
- 20:55Speaker 5: want you to push me in the direction you want
- 20:58Speaker 5: to take the country, or some kind of direct plea
- 21:01Speaker 5: to the young, impassioned people who I think today feel very,
- 21:04Speaker 5: you know, not that this is at all over, but
- 21:06Speaker 5: who right now kind of feel incredibly nervous and pretty brittle?
- 21:09Speaker 1: I think so. I think always being direct like that
- 21:11Speaker 1: is a bonus for a politician because people think you're
- 21:14Speaker 1: just going to be scripted and say what people, you know,
- 21:16Speaker 1: what you're supposed to say. And I think moments where
- 21:18Speaker 1: you can acknowledge a weakness that you have and then
- 21:21Speaker 1: talk about how you're going to fix that weakness or
- 21:24Speaker 1: at least try to overcome it are always a strong
- 21:26Speaker 1: point for a politician. Let's talk about the other remaining frontrunner,
- 21:38Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders. We don't yet know how many delegates Bernie
- 21:41Speaker 1: will net from his victory in California. There should be
- 21:43Speaker 1: a lot. Elsewhere, Bernie underperformed in several states compared to
- 21:47Speaker 1: 2016 and did not appear to expand his coalition in
- 21:50Speaker 1: a significant way. But he did say in his speech
- 21:52Speaker 1: that he will win the Democratic nomination, and he called
- 21:55Speaker 1: out what he sees as the key distinctions between him
- 21:57Speaker 1: and Biden. Let's take a listen.
- 21:59Speaker 8: One of us in this race led the opposition to
- 22:03Speaker 8: the war in Iraq.
- 22:05Speaker 2: You're looking at him.
- 22:12Speaker 8: Another candidate voted for the war in Iraq. One of
- 22:21Speaker 8: us has spent his entire life fighting against cuts in
- 22:26Speaker 8: Social Security, wanting to expand Social Security. Another candidate has
- 22:36Speaker 8: been on the floor of the Senate calling for cuts
- 22:40Speaker 8: to Social Security, Medicare.
- 22:42Speaker 2: Medicaid, and veterans programs.
- 22:46Speaker 8: One of us led the opposition to disastrous trade agreements
- 22:52Speaker 8: which cost us millions of good-paying jobs.
- 22:59Speaker 1: And that's me.
- 23:02Speaker 8: And another candidate voted for disastrous trade agreements. One of
- 23:11Speaker 8: us stood up for consumers and said we will not
- 23:15Speaker 8: support a disastrous bankruptcy bill.
- 23:23Speaker 1: And another candidate represented the credit.
- 23:26Speaker 8: Card companies and voted for.
- 23:29Speaker 1: That disastrous bill. So Bernie was the prohibitive favorite for
- 23:36Speaker 1: the nomination just a few weeks ago. Uh, what happened?
- 23:41Speaker 2: Uh, he didn't do that well on super Tuesday.
- 23:43Speaker 1: Okay. That's the kind of analysis you come here for.
- 23:46Speaker 5: I was just on the, on the Bernie speech. Uh, uh, I,
- 23:52Speaker 5: I watched the whole thing and cause you need that
- 23:54Speaker 5: contrast though. That contrast is what everybody's been replaying. And I,
- 23:57Speaker 5: and I went to watch it because I wanted to
- 23:58Speaker 5: see like, so does he turn from there? into a
- 24:02Speaker 5: bigger positive message, just sort of a bigger, broader coalition
- 24:06Speaker 5: building optimistic message.
- 24:08Speaker 2: And he doesn't. He doesn't in that speech.
- 24:09Speaker 5: He delivers that contrast and the kind of core of
- 24:13Speaker 5: the message that has appealed to the portion of the.
- 24:18Speaker 2: Voters that he's already won.
- 24:19Speaker 5: And I do think that in that speech, you see
- 24:21Speaker 5: the challenge that led to him to this place, which
- 24:22Speaker 5: is there wasn't a lot in there about appealing to
- 24:26Speaker 5: the kind of people who as of now have not
- 24:28Speaker 5: been with Bernie.
- 24:28Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 24:29Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 24:29Speaker 3: I mean, look, those are important policy positions and votes
- 24:32Speaker 3: that he's talking about, but it's kind of hard to
- 24:35Speaker 3: hear a speech that is half booing. And I know
- 24:38Speaker 3: that wasn't the entirety, but you're like, he needs to
- 24:40Speaker 3: build on his coalition. It's shrinking. He needs to reach
- 24:44Speaker 3: African-American voters who probably like Joe Biden. If they know
- 24:47Speaker 3: about Joe Biden, he needs to reach older voters who
- 24:50Speaker 3: probably like Joe Biden or college educated white voters who
- 24:53Speaker 3: probably like Joe Biden. And like, I don't know that
- 24:56Speaker 3: that does it. I don't know that that's a speech
- 24:58Speaker 3: that builds. That seems like more of the same negativity.
- 25:01Speaker 1: So it's a challenge in that you need to contrast
- 25:05Speaker 1: yourself with your opponent, but you also need a positive message.
- 25:08Speaker 1: And you also need to reach out to people who
- 25:10Speaker 1: are clearly obsessed with electability. And Bernie, I think better
- 25:14Speaker 1: than some of the other candidates, has been talking about
- 25:16Speaker 1: electability throughout this primary. I think if I were Bernie,
- 25:20Speaker 1: I'd go up there and be like, you know, we
- 25:22Speaker 1: need a candidate that can offer the best contrast with
- 25:24Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Right. We want when Donald Trump says he's
- 25:27Speaker 1: going to cut Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid, we need
- 25:30Speaker 1: a candidate who's been fighting for Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid
- 25:33Speaker 1: and wants to expand it. When Donald Trump passed another
- 25:36Speaker 1: bad free trade agreement, we need a candidate who's been
- 25:38Speaker 1: against free trade agreements from the start. Right. Then then
- 25:41Speaker 1: you're talking about the future. You get people cheering, not
- 25:44Speaker 1: people booing at Joe Biden. It's about Donald Trump. It's
- 25:46Speaker 1: about an electability case. Like he just sort of needs
- 25:48Speaker 1: to turn the case around because if he decides these
- 25:52Speaker 1: next couple of weeks that it's just going to be
- 25:53Speaker 1: lighting Joe Biden on fire. That's his right to do that.
- 25:57Speaker 1: Like you said, I don't think that's going to expand
- 25:59Speaker 1: his coalition in any meaningful way. Yeah, but I think,
- 26:03Speaker 1: you know, you said this earlier, Dan, clearly Bernie hit
- 26:05Speaker 1: a ceiling. And everyone's been wondering this whole primary, like,
- 26:09Speaker 1: is there a ceiling? He only got 33 to 36
- 26:13Speaker 1: percent in the states that he won. California's not in yet.
- 26:17Speaker 1: And Joe Biden in the states that he won. had
- 26:20Speaker 1: a much higher percentage, even in a crowded field, in
- 26:22Speaker 1: a multi-candidate field.
- 26:24Speaker 4: North of 50 in several cases.
- 26:25Speaker 1: North of 50. In Bernie Sanders' theory of the race
- 26:28Speaker 1: from the beginning, Tommy, I remember you had talked to
- 26:31Speaker 1: some people on that campaign early on that they thought,
- 26:34Speaker 1: as long as we can keep our support around 30
- 26:37Speaker 1: in this crowded field, that's enough to win.
- 26:40Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 26:41Speaker 3: And they weren't wrong for the early states. Well, not
- 26:43Speaker 3: South Carolina, I guess.
- 26:44Speaker 1: Right. But in some of the early states. And I
- 26:46Speaker 1: think that the... problem with Bernie's coalition right now is
- 26:50Speaker 1: there's incredible depth in the support and the passion among
- 26:53Speaker 1: his coalition, but there's not a lot of breadth. It
- 26:56Speaker 1: is just not big enough. And I guess the question
- 26:58Speaker 1: is like, what does he do? How does he expand
- 27:00Speaker 1: that coalition?
- 27:02Speaker 4: I think everything you guys just said about the dangers
- 27:05Speaker 4: of turning this into just an attack on Biden are correct.
- 27:10Speaker 4: And this is very challenging, right? Bernie has been working
- 27:13Speaker 4: at this now for six years, and he is actually
- 27:16Speaker 4: in a in terms of coalition size, in a worse
- 27:20Speaker 4: place than he was at this point in 2016.
- 27:22Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 27:22Speaker 4: He was doing worse.
- 27:24Speaker 1: Along many groups, demographic groups, than.
- 27:26Speaker 4: He was in 2016. And so, in that whole period, he, like,
- 27:29Speaker 4: you look at this from the very beginning, you were
- 27:31Speaker 4: to say to Bernie Sanders, like, how are you going
- 27:33Speaker 4: to do better in 2020 than you did in 2016?
- 27:37Speaker 4: The answer had to be African American voters. It had
- 27:39Speaker 4: to be. That is where he lost last time. He
- 27:42Speaker 4: did not achieve that. And there's a whole host of
- 27:44Speaker 4: reasons for that. And we can talk about this Obama
- 27:46Speaker 4: ad where he's clearly trying to address that. But, It's
- 27:49Speaker 4: a little late on that. I think to the extent
- 27:51Speaker 4: that he could, where he could make progress in the
- 27:54Speaker 4: short term here is he has to go back to
- 27:57Speaker 4: making an electability case for himself. Yeah. This is where
- 28:00Speaker 4: Biden has.
- 28:01Speaker 1: You can't run away from the electability case because that's
- 28:03Speaker 1: clearly the number one thing on people's minds right now.
- 28:04Speaker 3: Right.
- 28:05Speaker 4: And I think the, like that week between him becoming
- 28:08Speaker 4: the clear front runner between Nevada and South Carolina was
- 28:12Speaker 4: a thorough examination of his electability. And some of it
- 28:15Speaker 4: was unfair. Some of it he handled poorly. and he
- 28:18Speaker 4: suffered mightily from it. And so he's going to have to,
- 28:20Speaker 4: he has to make the case that he has a
- 28:21Speaker 4: better job, he's in a better position to beat Trump
- 28:24Speaker 4: than Biden. And there is an argument for that. Like
- 28:28Speaker 4: all electability arguments, it's theoretical bullshit, but it is an
- 28:31Speaker 4: argument that you can, like I would say the same.
- 28:34Speaker 2: Thing about Biden.
- 28:34Speaker 1: They're all legitimate cases, but who knows if they're right.
- 28:37Speaker 2: And they're both candidates with strengths and weaknesses.
- 28:39Speaker 4: And so, but he has to go back to making
- 28:42Speaker 4: that case because he has to get some of these
- 28:43Speaker 4: voters who flock to Biden in the states that were
- 28:45Speaker 4: voted on Super Tuesday, to come to him as the
- 28:48Speaker 4: campaign goes on.
- 28:49Speaker 1: Yeah. One interesting thing, Ron Brownstein was talking about this
- 28:53Speaker 1: when you look in the exits, among registered Democrats, right?
- 28:56Speaker 1: So Bernie ran even with Biden and Warren in Iowa
- 29:00Speaker 1: among registered Democrats. He won them in New Hampshire and Nevada,
- 29:03Speaker 1: and he's lost them ever since. And this is sort
- 29:06Speaker 1: of right around when they have, when I say they,
- 29:09Speaker 1: Bernie in some ways, and certainly his campaign supporters have
- 29:13Speaker 1: stepped up attacks on the Democratic establishment. And I think
- 29:17Speaker 1: I saw us all sort of retweeting this. Ezra Klein
- 29:19Speaker 1: had a really great piece about this, that if you're
- 29:22Speaker 1: going to lead the Democratic Party, you cannot be at
- 29:25Speaker 1: war with the Democratic Party. And I don't think that
- 29:28Speaker 1: Bernie himself has been quite as at war with the
- 29:31Speaker 1: Democratic Party as maybe he even was in 2016. But
- 29:34Speaker 1: certainly if you go online and it's not just fucking
- 29:37Speaker 1: random Twitter trolls, we don't care about those people. I'm
- 29:40Speaker 1: talking about people on his campaign. Not everyone on his campaign,
- 29:42Speaker 1: but some people on his campaign who seem like they
- 29:44Speaker 1: are more in a fight with the Democratic establishment than
- 29:47Speaker 1: a fight against Donald Trump. And that is a, again,
- 29:50Speaker 1: that's their right. You guys can do that if you want.
- 29:52Speaker 1: Have a great time. But I don't know if that's
- 29:54Speaker 1: going to win you the nomination. In fact, I don't
- 29:55Speaker 1: think it will.
- 29:56Speaker 5: And I don't think it's about I don't think this
- 29:58Speaker 5: is about, it's not about civility.
- 29:59Speaker 2: It's not about being nice. It's about people being mean
- 30:01Speaker 2: to people.
- 30:03Speaker 5: It's to me, I see a lot of assumptions about
- 30:07Speaker 5: the motivations of people like Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren,
- 30:13Speaker 5: that presume that people who came to the conclusion that
- 30:18Speaker 5: it was important for the country to rally behind Biden,
- 30:21Speaker 5: Maybe with some, you know, not that these people are perfect,
- 30:23Speaker 5: not that they're not without flaw, but not that they're
- 30:26Speaker 5: not flawed people, but that they came to that conclusion
- 30:28Speaker 5: with genuine, like, fear for the country and concerns about
- 30:30Speaker 5: both candidates, but came to that decision, difficult, a difficult decision.
- 30:35Speaker 5: And to be told that they're doing it for nefarious
- 30:38Speaker 5: reasons to just to stop Bernie, they don't, because it's
- 30:40Speaker 5: purely about that.
- 30:41Speaker 1: You've heard, yeah, you've heard a lot of. these establishment
- 30:43Speaker 1: Democrats don't care about beating Donald Trump. They just want
- 30:46Speaker 1: to beat Bernie, which is like, what.
- 30:47Speaker 3: The fuck are you talking about? They hate Bernie so
- 30:50Speaker 3: much that I'm going to vote for someone that is
- 30:53Speaker 3: backed by the healthcare industry and that's going to lead
- 30:55Speaker 3: to people dying. That's a literal thing you will see
- 30:58Speaker 3: on the Twitter feeds of Bernie's staffers. Not all of them.
- 31:02Speaker 3: Not Faz. Not some of the really thoughtful, smart ones.
- 31:05Speaker 3: Not Ro Khanna. You're not seeing AOC saying things like that.
- 31:08Speaker 2: Or Bernie.
- 31:09Speaker 3: Or Bernie Sanders. There are people that make this about
- 31:12Speaker 3: grievance and a lot of it is this weird self-absorption
- 31:15Speaker 3: that i don't particularly understand but then you also hear
- 31:18Speaker 3: that tone from the some of the bernie aligned media
- 31:21Speaker 3: outlets like a jacobin or some of the podcasts that
- 31:24Speaker 3: back him that like if you don't support motives you
- 31:28Speaker 3: want people to die which just assumes that he will
- 31:30Speaker 3: magically pass medicare for all the men he walks into
- 31:32Speaker 3: the fucking oval office and there we go right and
- 31:34Speaker 3: just it's absurd purity test that i know from talking
- 31:38Speaker 3: to not senior staff on the warren campaign or pete's
- 31:40Speaker 3: campaign but like young organizers and who just fucking hate
- 31:44Speaker 3: that stuff. They hate that tone and it's driven them away.
- 31:47Speaker 1: Well, because they are working their ass off, these young people,
- 31:50Speaker 1: to elect their candidate because they believe their candidate can
- 31:53Speaker 1: help improve the world. And to be told they're doing
- 31:55Speaker 1: it because they're trying to help the Democratic establishment maintain
- 31:59Speaker 1: power and get jobs in D.C. is fucking bullshit. It's
- 32:02Speaker 1: not a way to win people over. Tommy, you mentioned
- 32:04Speaker 1: Ro Khanna. If Bernie people want to see the most
- 32:07Speaker 1: effective surrogate For Bernie Sanders, who gets what it takes
- 32:12Speaker 1: to sort of bring the party together and yet still
- 32:14Speaker 1: be a very proud progressive and a proud lefty, watch
- 32:18Speaker 1: Ro Khanna or watch AOC.
- 32:20Speaker 4: Or Pramila Jayapal.
- 32:21Speaker 1: Or Pramila Jayapal, right? Like, he has some really good
- 32:24Speaker 1: surrogates out there who get politics and are still, just
- 32:28Speaker 1: because you get politics doesn't mean you're a centrist neoliberal shill.
- 32:31Speaker 1: You can still be progressive.
- 32:33Speaker 4: I think I can say one thing about the Ezra
- 32:34Speaker 4: Klein piece.
- 32:35Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 32:36Speaker 4: I think the actual piece is very, very smart. It
- 32:39Speaker 4: has been, in Twitter, reductionism brought down to Bernie's mean
- 32:43Speaker 4: to the Democratic establishment, therefore he can't lead the party.
- 32:45Speaker 1: Right. Which is always what they do, is say it's
- 32:48Speaker 1: about meanness, which it's not about meanness.
- 32:49Speaker 4: But it's not even about the Democratic establishment, right? It's
- 32:52Speaker 4: not about Susan Sarandon calling for Nancy Pelosi to be replaced.
- 32:56Speaker 4: It is about seeming like you are open to the
- 32:58Speaker 4: views of people who don't agree with you on everything.
- 33:02Speaker 4: And- If you can't do that in a Democratic Party
- 33:04Speaker 4: where you agree on 85% to 90% of the solutions
- 33:08Speaker 4: and 100% of the goals, then you're not going to
- 33:11Speaker 4: be able to do that in government. And there have
- 33:12Speaker 4: been three occasions, I think, in the last week that
- 33:16Speaker 4: I don't think each individual one moved voters against Bernie,
- 33:20Speaker 4: but they bespeak the larger problem. And this has been
- 33:22Speaker 4: a problem for Bernie since 2016. One was after AOC
- 33:27Speaker 4: went out and basically opened the door to compromise on
- 33:30Speaker 4: Medicare for All, saying- We're going to fight for it,
- 33:33Speaker 4: but if we get a public option, that'd be a
- 33:34Speaker 4: huge victory. Bernie Sanders was asked that question. He said, no,
- 33:37Speaker 4: Medicare for all is a compromise. From what? I'm not sure,
- 33:40Speaker 4: but it is a compromise. Oh, because there's a transition period.
- 33:42Speaker 4: He's like, we're going to abolish private insurance tomorrow, but
- 33:46Speaker 4: I'm giving you four years, so shut up. That's unfair.
- 33:49Speaker 7: I'm kidding.
- 33:51Speaker 4: Second is The his response to the Castro comments, which
- 33:55Speaker 4: we all defended him because we thought what he said
- 33:57Speaker 4: was right. And the reaction was unfair.
- 33:59Speaker 1: Yes.
- 33:59Speaker 4: Thank you. A lot of Castro's not the other attack
- 34:02Speaker 4: on Joaquin Castro's beard. We'll let that go.
- 34:05Speaker 2: But we support that.
- 34:07Speaker 4: But like there is an element of politics where sometimes
- 34:11Speaker 4: you have to learn how to eat shit. And the party,
- 34:13Speaker 4: a lot of people in the party reacted, particularly to
- 34:15Speaker 4: say it's going to matter to Bernie like Florida. I
- 34:17Speaker 4: think the reaction was unfair and disproportionate. And there was
- 34:19Speaker 4: a lot of motivated reasoning there. But sometimes you just
- 34:22Speaker 4: have to acknowledge things that you disagree with fundamentally.
- 34:25Speaker 3: Do you think Barack Obama wanted to apologize for not
- 34:27Speaker 3: wearing a flag pin and act like that was a
- 34:29Speaker 3: big deal? No, but he ate shit and he did
- 34:31Speaker 3: it and it helped him win the election.
- 34:32Speaker 1: Publicly disavow his pastor twice.
- 34:35Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 34:35Speaker 4: And look, people say, well, you're corrupt if you think that.
- 34:40Speaker 4: That's not it. You need to build a coalition of
- 34:42Speaker 4: people who don't agree with you on everything. And then
- 34:44Speaker 4: the third one, I think, is actually... under-discussed and pretty
- 34:46Speaker 4: significant is that he said he would not pick a
- 34:50Speaker 4: vice president who did not agree with him on Medicare
- 34:52Speaker 4: for All, which means you're going to use the most
- 34:55Speaker 4: important decision of your presidential campaign not to expand your
- 34:59Speaker 4: appeal to people who may disagree with you. And all
- 35:01Speaker 4: of those things, I think, bespeak the larger problem within
- 35:05Speaker 4: his messaging, that it does not seem, fairly or unfairly,
- 35:08Speaker 4: open to the people who do not agree with him
- 35:10Speaker 4: on everything. And that's how you end up with a
- 35:11Speaker 4: ceiling on your number.
- 35:13Speaker 5: And I do think, Contributing to that is the lack of,
- 35:17Speaker 5: it's not civility, but it's a lack of sort of
- 35:19Speaker 5: respect for the motivations of a lot of people who
- 35:22Speaker 5: are afraid for the country every single day and just
- 35:26Speaker 5: trying to figure it out like the.
- 35:27Speaker 2: Rest of us.
- 35:27Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 35:28Speaker 1: Now, you know, it does seem like there could be
- 35:31Speaker 1: some thinking in the campaign today that Bernie does need
- 35:35Speaker 1: to expand his coalition. He ran an ad with him
- 35:41Speaker 1: and Barack Obama. I think we have a clip of it.
- 35:44Speaker 4: Bernie is somebody who has the virtue of saying exactly
- 35:49Speaker 4: what he believes, great authenticity, great passion, and is fearless.
- 35:53Speaker 4: Bernie served on the Veterans Committee and got bills done.
- 35:57Speaker 8: I think people are ready for a call to action.
- 36:01Speaker 2: They want honest leadership who cares about them. They want
- 36:04Speaker 2: somebody who's going to fight for them.
- 36:06Speaker 4: And they will find it in Bernie.
- 36:08Speaker 1: That's where I feel the Bern.
- 36:09Speaker 8: I'm Bernie Sanders, and I approve this message.
- 36:14Speaker 2: Barack Obama has starred in so many ads this cycle.
- 36:17Speaker 1: Incredible. Knock me over with a feather. I was watching
- 36:21Speaker 1: that ad. I'm like, I just have to give him
- 36:23Speaker 1: credit for that.
- 36:24Speaker 2: I love it. I love that it's smart.
- 36:26Speaker 1: And I remember what Obama said, Phil. I think Obama
- 36:29Speaker 1: saying Phil the burn was when he was trying to do,
- 36:32Speaker 1: it was like a unity thing between Hillary and Bernie
- 36:34Speaker 1: in 16, because I remember him doing that and laughing
- 36:36Speaker 1: at it at the time. But look, I mean, I
- 36:40Speaker 1: don't know if this ad works, right? Because I do...
- 36:43Speaker 1: I don't think many I don't know how many Democratic
- 36:45Speaker 1: voters think that Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama are natural allies. Obviously,
- 36:50Speaker 1: the counter to this from the Biden campaign and from
- 36:51Speaker 1: others are going to say, well, Bernie did say, you know,
- 36:54Speaker 1: float a primary challenge to Barack Obama in 2012 said
- 36:57Speaker 1: on he said on a radio station he needs a
- 37:00Speaker 1: primary challenge. And so, you know, I don't know how
- 37:04Speaker 1: much that works, but, you know, good for him for
- 37:07Speaker 1: trying to work for Bloomberg. Right, it worked for Bloomberg, yeah.
- 37:10Speaker 3: They didn't like each other.
- 37:11Speaker 1: They didn't like each other at all. It worked for Bloomberg.
- 37:13Speaker 5: Yeah, Barack Obama has been just blanketing the airways for
- 37:15Speaker 5: two candidates he has some problems with. But I will say, though,
- 37:19Speaker 5: what was interesting about that message is it's not a
- 37:22Speaker 5: radical message. It's actually a really kind of positive case
- 37:25Speaker 5: for what Bernie is in a way that could appeal
- 37:27Speaker 5: to a lot of people.
- 37:28Speaker 2: Forget that Barack Obama's saying it.
- 37:30Speaker 1: Remember, it just wasn't Barack Obama. Yeah, it said he
- 37:32Speaker 1: can get things done. He can work with other people
- 37:35Speaker 1: to get things done, which might be as important for
- 37:37Speaker 1: Bernie as the Obama thing. Obama saying it.
- 37:40Speaker 4: Why do you think Bernie didn't run that ad before
- 37:42Speaker 4: the South Carolina primary?
- 37:45Speaker 1: That's a great question.
- 37:46Speaker 2: Maybe caught off guard by just what happened yesterday.
- 37:50Speaker 1: They must have had that in the... You think they
- 37:52Speaker 1: cut that overnight? Or you think they must have had that?
- 37:54Speaker 1: Seems like they had that, right?
- 37:57Speaker 4: You've known it's out there. Any political consultant who heard
- 38:00Speaker 4: that has had that in the back of their head.
- 38:02Speaker 4: I'm sure that ad has been in the can for
- 38:03Speaker 4: a long time. And there is an element of... I
- 38:08Speaker 4: don't like, maybe he felt like he was inauthentic to
- 38:10Speaker 4: run that ad because he had floated that primary challenge.
- 38:12Speaker 4: Although I think Bernie Sanders act, despite that primary challenge,
- 38:16Speaker 4: what actually has a greater claim to relationship with Barack
- 38:19Speaker 4: Obama than Michael Bloomberg does. Oh, and none of them
- 38:21Speaker 4: are in the neighborhood of Joe Biden, obviously, but like,
- 38:24Speaker 4: it's not an unfair ad in any way, shape or form.
- 38:28Speaker 4: So I'm just like, there must've been a decision. You're
- 38:31Speaker 4: heading into the most important state that could essentially, you
- 38:33Speaker 4: could end Joe Biden's candidacy right there by causing him
- 38:38Speaker 4: to underperform there and building on some momentum you apparently
- 38:41Speaker 4: had in polling in African-American voters and did not run that.
- 38:44Speaker 4: And I'm just curious, like, I don't know whether that stubbornness,
- 38:46Speaker 4: I don't know if that was a candidate decision.
- 38:48Speaker 1: Or like the wing of the campaign that's like, fuck
- 38:51Speaker 1: the neolib shills.
- 38:53Speaker 3: I bet you that Barack Obama listens to a Bernie
- 38:56Speaker 3: Sanders speech and agrees with 99.9% of what comes out
- 39:00Speaker 3: of his mouth. It's just an approach to politics is
- 39:02Speaker 3: where they differ.
- 39:03Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 39:04Speaker 3: Obama's always been about bringing people together, even when they
- 39:06Speaker 3: disagree with you.
- 39:07Speaker 1: And compromising.
- 39:08Speaker 3: It has been core to his ability to win.
- 39:11Speaker 5: Yeah, I will say there was, you know, the toxic
- 39:13Speaker 5: debate in South Carolina. There was that moment at the
- 39:15Speaker 5: end where the question was about what are some myths
- 39:17Speaker 5: about you? And what Bernie said was the myth is
- 39:19Speaker 5: that I'm a radical and the things I advocate for
- 39:22Speaker 5: are not radical. They're incredibly sensible, practical things to help people.
- 39:26Speaker 5: And that side of Bernie, I think, is so important
- 39:29Speaker 5: to his appeal. and actually speaks to the incredible achievement
- 39:32Speaker 5: he's had in the last six years of pulling the
- 39:35Speaker 5: party to the left, regardless of what happens moving forward.
- 39:38Speaker 5: And if I were sort of sitting at a computer
- 39:41Speaker 5: trying to figure out what Bernie should be saying now
- 39:43Speaker 5: or what he should have been saying a week and
- 39:45Speaker 5: a half ago, it would be that broader message about
- 39:48Speaker 5: how practical these ideas are, how much he's gotten done,
- 39:51Speaker 5: the importance and the positive about, you know, helping the strangers,
- 39:54Speaker 5: if they yourself, like all that part of that, that
- 39:56Speaker 5: undergirds the kind of hope people feel in Bernie.
- 39:58Speaker 2: And it just has been missing.
- 40:00Speaker 1: I will say, Dan, to answer your question, just thinking
- 40:03Speaker 1: about it for a second, the Bernie people might've been thinking,
- 40:07Speaker 1: if this becomes a contest between Bernie Sanders and Joe
- 40:10Speaker 1: Biden about who Barack Obama likes better, There's a very
- 40:14Speaker 1: easy moment on the debate stage where you'd be like,
- 40:16Speaker 1: I know you've been running this ad, Bernie, but he
- 40:18Speaker 1: picked me to be vice president twice. And he's my pal.
- 40:23Speaker 1: And I served in his administration for eight years. What
- 40:25Speaker 1: did you do? It reports that you floated a primary
- 40:29Speaker 1: challenge to him and you disagreed with him many times.
- 40:31Speaker 1: So it's all about sort of the frame of the election, right?
- 40:34Speaker 1: You never want to fight on a frame that's going
- 40:37Speaker 1: to benefit your opponent. So that might be one reason.
- 40:40Speaker 3: It's sort of a reductive thing. focus for a whole
- 40:43Speaker 3: campaign too, but here we are, I guess.
- 40:46Speaker 5: Or sometimes campaigns just screw up because they're focused on
- 40:49Speaker 5: a million things and don't get the.
- 40:51Speaker 2: Ad up or what happened. Who knows?
- 40:52Speaker 1: So we're going to talk all about Elizabeth Warren, but
- 40:54Speaker 1: I do want to start by, at the end of
- 40:56Speaker 1: the Bernie section here, talking about how much was Warren
- 40:59Speaker 1: a factor for Bernie's performance on Super Tuesdays. Many of
- 41:04Speaker 1: his supporters and some on his campaign seem to blame
- 41:06Speaker 1: her for taking away progressive votes. Ilhan Omar tweeted, Imagine
- 41:10Speaker 1: if the progressives consolidated last night like the moderates consolidated.
- 41:13Speaker 1: Who would have won? I feel confident it would have
- 41:15Speaker 1: allowed us to win Minnesota and other states. Is this true?
- 41:18Speaker 1: Is this fair?
- 41:20Speaker 3: I mean, I've made my view clear that I don't
- 41:22Speaker 3: think it's true or fair.
- 41:24Speaker 4: It's just the math says no. Every bit of data
- 41:27Speaker 4: says no.
- 41:29Speaker 5: Maybe you can make an argument that Massachusetts, maybe there's
- 41:32Speaker 5: one or two places where it would have shifted a state,
- 41:34Speaker 5: but I don't think it would have shifted the overall
- 41:36Speaker 5: result of the night. And also, this wasn't a fight
- 41:39Speaker 5: between Biden versus Bernie plus Warren. This is a fight
- 41:42Speaker 5: between Biden plus Bloomberg versus Bernie plus Warren. If they're
- 41:46Speaker 5: all gone, Bloomberg did a lot better. The damage Bloomberg
- 41:49Speaker 5: did certainly countervails anything that Elizabeth Warren did, if you
- 41:51Speaker 5: even assume that those votes would have all gone to Bernie, which,
- 41:54Speaker 5: as Tommy said, you can't.
- 41:56Speaker 1: And I'll just say, from a political standpoint, like, if
- 41:59Speaker 1: you're Bernie Sanders and you want to expand your coalition,
- 42:01Speaker 1: blaming Elizabeth Warren, and not that he's doing it, but
- 42:04Speaker 1: even having some of your supporters do it, fucking tamp
- 42:06Speaker 1: that shit down, because blaming Elizabeth... This is someone who,
- 42:11Speaker 1: if she drops out of the race, you'll want her endorsement.
- 42:14Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe don't tweet snakes at people.
- 42:16Speaker 4: I mean, we should be clear on Bernie's behalf is
- 42:19Speaker 4: that he has been explicitly going in the other direction
- 42:22Speaker 4: of his supporters. He was asked whether she should drop out.
- 42:24Speaker 4: He was very explicit that he would not tell her
- 42:26Speaker 4: to do that.
- 42:26Speaker 1: Faz said that in the New York Times as well.
- 42:29Speaker 4: He's doing a press conference now, basically, and I would
- 42:32Speaker 4: be shocked if he does not once again offer words
- 42:36Speaker 4: of support for her as opposed... There is– throughout all
- 42:39Speaker 4: of everything we've been talking about, there is this disconnect
- 42:41Speaker 4: from Bernie the person and Bernie the campaign. And it
- 42:45Speaker 4: is incumbent upon Bernie the person to make the person
- 42:49Speaker 4: a more centerpiece of the campaign, which– And.
- 42:52Speaker 1: To get the campaign in line.
- 42:53Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 42:54Speaker 2: That's right.
- 42:54Speaker 3: And on top of that, there's the Bernie aligned media,
- 42:57Speaker 3: which it's not fair to blame him for things that
- 43:00Speaker 3: they say and do. But if you welcome those same
- 43:03Speaker 3: people later into events and GOTV rallies and other things,
- 43:07Speaker 3: like you're going to get tagged with some of the
- 43:09Speaker 3: shittier things they say. That's life. That's politics.
- 43:20Speaker 1: OK, let's talk about Elizabeth Warren, who had a disappointing night.
- 43:24Speaker 1: Her campaign hoped she'd win a sizable number of delegates.
- 43:28Speaker 1: but she barely cleared the 15% viability threshold in just
- 43:30Speaker 1: a few states and lost her home state of Massachusetts.
- 43:34Speaker 1: Her campaign released a statement this morning saying that she's
- 43:36Speaker 1: going to take a few days to think about what's next. Guys,
- 43:40Speaker 1: it's obviously no secret that we all, really like Elizabeth Warren,
- 43:43Speaker 1: have been incredibly impressed with her as a candidate and
- 43:46Speaker 1: her campaign. What do we think happened here?
- 43:49Speaker 3: Well, I mean, let's do two parts of this. I mean,
- 43:52Speaker 3: I think there's mistakes she'd made and things that were
- 43:55Speaker 3: out of her control. So in terms of mistakes she made,
- 43:58Speaker 3: I do think that the story that was told about
- 44:02Speaker 3: Elizabeth Warren probably should have been the story of a
- 44:06Speaker 3: woman born in Oklahoma who went to a commuter college
- 44:08Speaker 3: after dropping out at 19 because she got pregnant and
- 44:10Speaker 3: worked her way up as a teacher. And like that
- 44:13Speaker 3: incredible inspiring up from your bootstrap story, I don't think
- 44:16Speaker 3: broke through and said it was sort of wonky professor
- 44:19Speaker 3: who has a plan for that, which in the moment
- 44:21Speaker 3: seems like brilliant branding and amazing. But I think long-term,
- 44:26Speaker 3: didn't necessarily connect her with voters in the way that
- 44:31Speaker 3: builds a connection that is enduring. That would be one note.
- 44:35Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 44:35Speaker 5: And I just add to that, too, that I think
- 44:38Speaker 5: the warrior Warren that we saw in the debate with
- 44:40Speaker 5: Bloomberg was one that was so welcome and so incredibly
- 44:47Speaker 5: impressive and was sort of the other piece of the wonk.
- 44:50Speaker 2: Right.
- 44:50Speaker 5: It's like, you know, she comes from nothing. to become
- 44:52Speaker 5: the intellectual leader of the Democratic Party. And she does
- 44:55Speaker 5: it by being a fighter, but not just being a wonk,
- 44:57Speaker 5: but being a fighter who's relentless. And that relentlessness is
- 45:02Speaker 5: what had led her to that stage and to take
- 45:04Speaker 5: Bloomberg apart piece by piece. And that came late and
- 45:11Speaker 5: couldn't overcome some of the liabilities that were outside of
- 45:13Speaker 5: her control, including misogyny.
- 45:16Speaker 4: Sometimes the people with the best message, the best campaigns,
- 45:19Speaker 4: don't win. And she made mistakes for sure. Her campaign
- 45:22Speaker 4: made mistakes. They bet on Iowa and they didn't win Iowa.
- 45:26Speaker 4: And then it's, that was sort of the original sin
- 45:28Speaker 4: here that has been hard to, very hard to recover from.
- 45:31Speaker 4: And the bet on Iowa was not incorrect. Like she
- 45:34Speaker 4: looked at the map, knew New Hampshire would be hard
- 45:35Speaker 4: for her given challenges that she has with being in that,
- 45:39Speaker 4: in that Boston media market, which has not been friendly
- 45:41Speaker 4: to her despite her political success there. Demographically, the next
- 45:45Speaker 4: two states were hard for her. So she needed a
- 45:46Speaker 4: burst of momentum and to become the front runner. That
- 45:48Speaker 4: didn't work. But, Like in the context of what Lovett
- 45:52Speaker 4: just said is that in an election where electability, whatever
- 45:56Speaker 4: that means, has been the primary issue for Democratic voters,
- 45:58Speaker 4: the role of misogyny has played a huge part. It's
- 46:01Speaker 4: misogyny and it's gender and race, right? Which is why
- 46:06Speaker 4: the candidates of color, women candidates and particularly women candidates
- 46:10Speaker 4: of color are offered no margin of error on their mistakes.
- 46:12Speaker 4: And the way that I think it's just so important
- 46:15Speaker 4: to think about that, I know we talked about this
- 46:16Speaker 4: on the live stream last night, but is when Elizabeth
- 46:19Speaker 4: Warren was the frontrunner, there was an electability panic among
- 46:23Speaker 4: political elite about her. And the primary reason, even if
- 46:26Speaker 4: that was just a proxy conversation or something else, the
- 46:28Speaker 4: primary reason for that was her support of Medicare for All.
- 46:31Speaker 4: And the Medicare for All bill she supported is the
- 46:35Speaker 4: one that Bernie Sanders wrote. And there has not been
- 46:38Speaker 4: a similar conversation around Bernie Sanders. And so you don't
- 46:41Speaker 4: have to be a fucking detective to figure out what
- 46:43Speaker 4: the problem is here.
- 46:45Speaker 1: And in that, I think she faced sort of two
- 46:48Speaker 1: factors mainly beyond her control, which was the intersection of
- 46:51Speaker 1: both gender and ideology, right? Candidates that are perceived as
- 46:56Speaker 1: too far to the left have a harder time winning
- 46:59Speaker 1: a nomination. And then women candidates have an added challenge
- 47:03Speaker 1: because sexism exists in this country. And the fact that
- 47:07Speaker 1: she was both, that she was a woman running to
- 47:10Speaker 1: the left, which her Medicare for All position and the
- 47:13Speaker 1: scrutiny on the Medicare for All position highlighted, I think
- 47:17Speaker 1: for a Democratic elector that was obsessed with electability became
- 47:20Speaker 1: an issue. Because as we remember, we all were there
- 47:23Speaker 1: for the poll, the Des Moines Register poll that showed
- 47:24Speaker 1: her in first place in Iowa, right? She was leading
- 47:26Speaker 1: the field for a while.
- 47:28Speaker 3: And just to update everyone, so I'm seeing right now
- 47:31Speaker 3: Bernie Sanders is doing a press conference and he said
- 47:33Speaker 3: that he spoke with Elizabeth Warren a few hours ago.
- 47:35Speaker 3: And per our previous conversation, she said she's assessing her
- 47:39Speaker 3: campaign and he is asking people to respect the time
- 47:41Speaker 3: and the space that she needs to make her decisions.
- 47:44Speaker 3: So Bernie Sanders is leading and doing and saying the
- 47:47Speaker 3: right thing.
- 47:47Speaker 1: Good for him. Good for him.
- 47:49Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 47:49Speaker 5: I mean, just on the sort of the misogyny front too,
- 47:52Speaker 5: I do think you see some people trying to argue
- 47:53Speaker 5: against it by saying, well, then why did Amy Klobuchar
- 47:55Speaker 5: do well?
- 47:56Speaker 2: Or why did she- She was a moderate. Right.
- 47:59Speaker 5: Well, yeah, she was a moderate, of course. And why was,
- 48:01Speaker 5: how could you say that, you know, misogyny isn't the reason.
- 48:04Speaker 1: Elizabeth- And Bernie Sanders did well because he's a man.
- 48:05Speaker 3: Right.
- 48:06Speaker 5: And Elizabeth, well, what I was gonna say is, you know,
- 48:08Speaker 5: Elizabeth Warren was leading. A lot of people didn't suddenly
- 48:10Speaker 5: become misogynist. And of course that's true. But I do think,
- 48:14Speaker 5: We have never grappled enough with the subtle but deep
- 48:19Speaker 5: way in which our language of politics, our metaphors, our
- 48:23Speaker 5: notions of experience, what we give to men in terms
- 48:26Speaker 5: of credit for their accomplishments, what we give to women
- 48:28Speaker 5: in terms of credit for their accomplishments. I mean, it
- 48:30Speaker 5: was just an uphill battle for her from the very beginning.
- 48:33Speaker 5: And it's sad, that's all.
- 48:37Speaker 1: I will say one thing, sort of looking at this
- 48:39Speaker 1: electorate and what we're seeing in these results. Next time
- 48:43Speaker 1: there is an open Democratic primary and Donald Trump is
- 48:47Speaker 1: not the incumbent president and fear has not pervaded the
- 48:50Speaker 1: whole contest and everyone's super worried about electability because if
- 48:54Speaker 1: we don't nominate the right person, Donald Trump will be
- 48:55Speaker 1: president again. I do think that this Democratic electorate will
- 48:59Speaker 1: be more willing to take a chance on a candidate
- 49:02Speaker 1: that is not as traditional, either in their ideology or
- 49:06Speaker 1: their gender or their race or whatever it may be.
- 49:08Speaker 1: I think Democrats will feel a little more courageous when
- 49:12Speaker 1: we're not facing a Donald Trump.
- 49:13Speaker 4: That's the fundamental difference between 2020 and 2008. Yeah.
- 49:17Speaker 1: I don't know if Barack Obama gets nominated in this environment.
- 49:19Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 49:20Speaker 4: I think it's highly unlikely that he does. Because a
- 49:22Speaker 4: lot of people have asked that question, like, well, how
- 49:24Speaker 4: did Obama navigate the electability question? And it was a question.
- 49:26Speaker 4: It was one very explicitly raised by some of Hillary
- 49:29Speaker 4: Clinton's advisors. But it was not the primary overriding topic
- 49:34Speaker 4: of discussion for the entire campaign. And so it was
- 49:37Speaker 4: a It was a much lower hurdle for him to
- 49:39Speaker 4: get over than it was for any candidate in this cycle.
- 49:43Speaker 4: And it's not just like what is actual electability. It
- 49:46Speaker 4: is a narrative of politics that has existed since the
- 49:50Speaker 4: day after the 2016 election, which is the only way
- 49:53Speaker 4: to win the White House is you have to persuade
- 49:54Speaker 4: a group of conservative white men in Wisconsin. And when
- 49:57Speaker 4: you choose that as the narrative of politics, that is
- 49:59Speaker 4: going to ultimately disadvantage anyone who is not a white man.
- 50:03Speaker 5: I also think Elizabeth Warren paid a price for the
- 50:06Speaker 5: incredibly– un-nuanced and, you know, pretty brittle conversation that took
- 50:11Speaker 5: place after Hillary Clinton's popular vote win and electoral college
- 50:15Speaker 5: loss around the interplay of her unique flaws and weaknesses
- 50:20Speaker 5: as a candidate and the role that misogyny obviously and
- 50:22Speaker 5: clearly played in that race. And I do think that
- 50:24Speaker 5: that conversation ultimately made people nervous and fearful when they
- 50:29Speaker 5: were already going to be nervous and fearful going into
- 50:30Speaker 5: this election.
- 50:32Speaker 1: Finally, the last candidate who competed on Super Tuesday has
- 50:34Speaker 1: dropped out. Mike Bloomberg is calling it quits after spending
- 50:37Speaker 1: more than half a billion dollars, which is about the
- 50:40Speaker 1: GDP of American Samoa, which is the only place he
- 50:42Speaker 1: won last night. Bloomberg also picked up delegates in a
- 50:47Speaker 1: number of other states, but it wasn't enough. And he
- 50:49Speaker 1: endorsed Joe Biden this morning. We talked about lessons learned
- 50:53Speaker 1: from Tom Steyer's grand experiment last week. What do we learn?
- 50:55Speaker 3: What do we learn from Mike Bloomberg's campaign, guys? Hard
- 50:58Speaker 3: to run in a Democratic primary when you're a Republican.
- 51:02Speaker 5: Like.
- 51:02Speaker 1: I'll take that.
- 51:03Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say like I feel like there are
- 51:05Speaker 5: people over learning lessons around ads.
- 51:08Speaker 3: Right.
- 51:08Speaker 5: There's I think there's a lot of people saying, wow,
- 51:09Speaker 5: he you know, he spent five hundred million dollars on
- 51:11Speaker 5: ads and they didn't work. I do think that, you know,
- 51:15Speaker 5: the ad set up Mike Bloomberg to show up late
- 51:18Speaker 5: in the game and actually like allowed him to outpace
- 51:21Speaker 5: people that have been running for a year. And he
- 51:22Speaker 5: just couldn't close the deal. He came to that debate
- 51:25Speaker 5: stage and he and he found her and it led
- 51:27Speaker 5: people to walk away.
- 51:28Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, that is exactly right. Ads can help,
- 51:30Speaker 4: but they cancel off all your problems. And the problem
- 51:32Speaker 4: Mike Bloomberg had was he, despite being a true champion
- 51:35Speaker 4: on two of the most important issues that Democrats care about,
- 51:37Speaker 4: climate change and gun control, on the vast majority of
- 51:39Speaker 4: other issues, he was ambivalent at best and conservative at worst.
- 51:43Speaker 4: He had a long history of statements, critical of President Obama,
- 51:47Speaker 4: everyone's best friend, despite his ads. And generally, and he's
- 51:52Speaker 4: also not a good politician. Like he doesn't like, When
- 51:57Speaker 4: he went to that debate stage, the person who showed up,
- 52:00Speaker 4: regardless of how Elizabeth Warren handled him, which was obviously
- 52:04Speaker 4: very skillful, but the person who showed up there seemed
- 52:07Speaker 4: nothing like the grand, bold leader who's best friends with
- 52:10Speaker 4: Obama that several hundred million dollars of ads showed up. Eventually,
- 52:13Speaker 4: some people have to try the product, and the product
- 52:16Speaker 4: did not match the marketing campaign, and that is where
- 52:18Speaker 4: he tumbled.
- 52:19Speaker 1: It's also like a bunch of Democratic voters were like,
- 52:23Speaker 1: all right, we really care about electability. And we're looking
- 52:26Speaker 1: for the candidate who we think is the most electable.
- 52:28Speaker 1: But you know what? Mike Bloomberg is going too far.
- 52:32Speaker 1: That's really true. I can't go that far.
- 52:35Speaker 4: Well, I think if he had done well in that debate,
- 52:37Speaker 4: then he would have seemed electable.
- 52:38Speaker 1: Well, if he had seemed like a Democrat.
- 52:40Speaker 4: Or seemed like a mediocre politician. That was one of
- 52:44Speaker 4: the worst debate performances in American history. And to be
- 52:49Speaker 4: fair to him, he has not debated since George W.
- 52:51Speaker 4: Bush was president.
- 52:52Speaker 8: Yeah.
- 52:53Speaker 4: A man he endorsed.
- 52:54Speaker 5: You were going to say that. But also, that is
- 53:01Speaker 5: why it was so reckless to think that you could
- 53:04Speaker 5: use Blanket the Airwaves to create a position for yourself.
- 53:06Speaker 2: If you're not ready... Well, it wasn't reckless.
- 53:09Speaker 1: It was a smart move that almost worked until he
- 53:10Speaker 1: got on that debate stage.
- 53:11Speaker 2: Well, you're not practiced as a candidate. And that's what
- 53:14Speaker 2: we need. We need a practiced candidate.
- 53:15Speaker 1: That's all. No.
- 53:16Speaker 4: He didn't do interviews. He didn't do town halls. He
- 53:18Speaker 4: didn't do debates. And so... When he basically had to
- 53:22Speaker 4: go up to the plate at the biggest, most important
- 53:25Speaker 4: moment of this entire campaign without ever having swung a bat.
- 53:28Speaker 4: And that doesn't, it's a sports thing, but.
- 53:29Speaker 3: It doesn't work. I mean, listen, Elizabeth Warren dismembered him
- 53:33Speaker 3: like an extra in Dexter, right? I mean, he like
- 53:36Speaker 3: faced one of the most brutal, effective debaters this entire cycle.
- 53:42Speaker 2: But also, it is.
- 53:43Speaker 1: Joe Biden should send Warren a thank you note.
- 53:45Speaker 3: Everyone should.
- 53:45Speaker 2: It was gross when she whispered his ear, shh, it's
- 53:47Speaker 2: almost over.
- 53:48Speaker 3: You can't win the Morning Joe caucus and think that
- 53:52Speaker 3: then $ 600 million of ads is going to cover up
- 53:55Speaker 3: for tons of allegations of... Yeah. I don't even remember
- 54:01Speaker 3: the specifics. I mean, sexual harassment, et cetera, et cetera.
- 54:05Speaker 3: A lot of terrible stuff at your company, a lot
- 54:06Speaker 3: of terrible votes, a lot of terrible positions. routinely talking
- 54:09Speaker 3: shit about the former president united states who is popular
- 54:12Speaker 3: i mean none of that was fixable with money thank
- 54:15Speaker 3: god by the way yeah that's something good about our democracy.
- 54:18Speaker 4: His problem is he's not as close to brock obama
- 54:19Speaker 4: as bernie sanders.
- 54:22Speaker 1: I mean look for all the criticism that mike bloomberg
- 54:25Speaker 1: has received most of it deserved um he did say
- 54:30Speaker 1: this morning or his campaign said this morning they will
- 54:32Speaker 1: be spending all of their money now to help elect
- 54:35Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee where they think the Democratic nominee will
- 54:38Speaker 1: be Joe Biden. They're supporting Joe Biden. But nonetheless, I nonetheless,
- 54:42Speaker 1: I do think that is some very good news and
- 54:44Speaker 1: speaks very well of Mike Bloomberg that after taking shit
- 54:47Speaker 1: from the Democratic Party for the last couple of weeks
- 54:50Speaker 1: as this monstrous oligarch, he's like, hey, I'm still here
- 54:53Speaker 1: to beat Donald Trump and I'm going to help in
- 54:54Speaker 1: every way I can. Yeah, it does. Good for Mike Bloomberg.
- 54:56Speaker 2: Yes, it does speak well of him.
- 54:57Speaker 5: And, you know, he decided he could have run as
- 54:59Speaker 5: a spoiler independent as some other billionaires considered.
- 55:02Speaker 1: Or just take his money and gone home and be like,
- 55:04Speaker 1: fuck you people.
- 55:05Speaker 4: Go to his new home in American Samoa.
- 55:07Speaker 2: Yeah, where he'd be welcomed like a king.
- 55:10Speaker 5: But he chose to run in the primary and make
- 55:13Speaker 5: his case, and it didn't work, and he backed out.
- 55:17Speaker 1: More than we can say for, you know, better than
- 55:19Speaker 1: Howard Schultz.
- 55:20Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
- 55:20Speaker 1: He dropped out, so we're fine. For now.
- 55:23Speaker 2: For now.
- 55:24Speaker 4: What do you know?
- 55:25Speaker 3: Don't do that.
- 55:27Speaker 1: Anyway, before we go, we should just talk about a
- 55:28Speaker 1: few down ballot results. In North Carolina, former state senator
- 55:31Speaker 1: and veteran Cal Cunningham won the Democratic Senate primary and
- 55:34Speaker 1: will face off against Republican Tom Tillis in the fall.
- 55:37Speaker 1: Polling has showed Cunningham and Tillis in a tight race.
- 55:40Speaker 1: It's a big race in North Carolina, and we got
- 55:43Speaker 1: a good candidate.
- 55:43Speaker 4: And I think the turnout in North Carolina in this
- 55:45Speaker 4: primary is phenomenal. encouraging for that race.
- 55:48Speaker 3: Yeah thom phyllis has to be a little worried.
- 55:50Speaker 1: About that was a big number every time i try
- 55:54Speaker 1: to find his handle on twitter to speak something mean
- 55:56Speaker 1: about him it's so hard because it's thom phyllis in
- 55:58Speaker 1: the thank for trump um go to votesaveamerica.com slash get
- 56:06Speaker 1: mitch to donate to all the democratic senator candidates but
- 56:10Speaker 1: now you cannot now we have one in cal cunningham
- 56:12Speaker 1: um In Texas, no Democratic Senate candidate cleared 50%, so
- 56:15Speaker 1: there will be a runoff between MJ Hager and someone else.
- 56:18Speaker 1: We don't know who because it's still too close to call.
- 56:21Speaker 1: In Alabama, Doug Jones, our boy Doug Jones, send him
- 56:24Speaker 1: some money. He will face the winner of a runoff
- 56:27Speaker 1: between Jeffrey Beauregard Sessions and Tommy Tuberville. Who do we
- 56:33Speaker 1: want to win that runoff? Do we want Sessions?
- 56:35Speaker 2: I actually think it may be worse than that. I
- 56:37Speaker 2: think it's Jefferson Beauregard.
- 56:38Speaker 1: Jefferson Beauregard Sessions and Tommy Tuberville.
- 56:43Speaker 2: Tommy Tuberville.
- 56:44Speaker 3: He's a football coach. Listen, let's just all sit here
- 56:48Speaker 3: and be happy that Roy Moore got his clock cleaned
- 56:52Speaker 3: by Alabama voters.
- 56:53Speaker 1: He might have been the easiest to own.
- 56:55Speaker 3: I know, but even the prospect of that disgusting scumbag
- 56:58Speaker 3: potentially serving in the U.S. Senate is too much to bear.
- 57:01Speaker 3: Because you know Mitch McConnell would be like, well, give
- 57:03Speaker 3: him some committees.
- 57:04Speaker 1: Might as well. Yeah, he would have done it before. Oh,
- 57:07Speaker 1: it's Tuberville. Tuberville. Okay, thanks, Michael. There was also a
- 57:11Speaker 1: jungle primary in California's 25th congressional district to fill Katie
- 57:14Speaker 1: Hill's seat. No candidate reached the 50% required majority. So
- 57:17Speaker 1: Democrat Christy Smith will run against Mike Garcia in a
- 57:20Speaker 1: runoff in May. Smith and Garcia will also face off
- 57:23Speaker 1: in the general election in November.
- 57:24Speaker 4: Brutal.
- 57:25Speaker 1: Two elections for those two to see who will serve
- 57:28Speaker 1: the full term starting in 2021. That's an important seat.
- 57:31Speaker 1: And so everyone here in California near the 25th, help
- 57:34Speaker 1: out on that one. And then finally, one congressional primary
- 57:37Speaker 1: that we were watching closely was the Texas 28th. Jessica Cisneros,
- 57:41Speaker 1: a progressive 26-year-old human rights lawyer who we endorsed, who
- 57:44Speaker 1: Tommy interviewed here on Pod Save America, challenged Trump's favorite Democrat,
- 57:48Speaker 1: the very conservative representative Henry Cuellar. Cuellar ended up beating
- 57:51Speaker 1: Cisneros 52% to 48%. Close. That one sucks. And Cisneros
- 57:57Speaker 1: said she'll be back.
- 57:58Speaker 2: Good for her.
- 57:58Speaker 3: She's 26. She's a badass. She inspired a lot of people.
- 58:01Speaker 3: And Cuellar had Pelosi coming in at the end. He
- 58:04Speaker 3: had DCCC money. He had Koch brothers money. He had everything.
- 58:09Speaker 3: The whole kitchen sink. So she'll be back.
- 58:11Speaker 6: Good.
- 58:12Speaker 1: That's it. Anyone else have any other?
- 58:14Speaker 4: Can we just say something about the voting problems?
- 58:15Speaker 7: Yes.
- 58:16Speaker 4: Which is all across the country.
- 58:17Speaker 1: They were bad.
- 58:18Speaker 4: Particularly in California and Texas. People were forced to wait
- 58:22Speaker 4: in line for hours. The more likely you are to
- 58:25Speaker 4: live in a low income or community of color, the
- 58:27Speaker 4: longer you had to wait in line. And Mark Elias...
- 58:32Speaker 4: Our friend, Democratic attorney who has been fighting these in
- 58:35Speaker 4: courts for voting rights for a very long time, pointed
- 58:37Speaker 4: out on Twitter last night that if we do not
- 58:39Speaker 4: make fixing those issues a priority, we were going to
- 58:42Speaker 4: get our clock cleaned in November. And it is particularly
- 58:46Speaker 4: frustrating in California where we control all the levers of power.
- 58:49Speaker 4: We give people vote by mail and every other thing.
- 58:50Speaker 4: California is supposed to be the model for how you
- 58:52Speaker 4: do it. And the fact that people were waiting in
- 58:54Speaker 4: line five hours after the polls closed to cast a
- 58:56Speaker 4: vote in a Democratic primary is deeply- In.
- 58:58Speaker 1: A Democratic state. Yes.
- 59:00Speaker 4: All the levers of power.
- 59:01Speaker 1: We have the power.
- 59:02Speaker 3: Can I just say one stat from Texas? Since the
- 59:04Speaker 3: Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, Texas has closed
- 59:07Speaker 3: 750 polling locations, 72 of them are in the 50
- 59:11Speaker 3: counties with the fastest growing African-American and Latino population. This
- 59:15Speaker 3: is deliberate. It is racist. It is voter suppression. And
- 59:18Speaker 3: we see it every election and it's just priced into
- 59:21Speaker 3: the coverage that the media just expected to happen. We
- 59:24Speaker 3: need to treat it like a scandal event. and an
- 59:26Speaker 3: outrage and make it a top priority.
- 59:28Speaker 4: Let me tell you the fact about Texas that I
- 59:29Speaker 4: think shows just how unsubtle they are in their efforts
- 59:32Speaker 4: to disenfranchise Democratic voters. Texas has, obviously, a very onerous
- 59:36Speaker 4: voter ID law. But don't worry, if you don't have
- 59:38Speaker 4: a driver's license, you can vote with your conceal and
- 59:40Speaker 4: carry permit. But if you are a student at a university,
- 59:44Speaker 4: including a Texas State University, your student ID does not count.
- 59:47Speaker 2: Wow. On the California piece of it, I do.
- 59:51Speaker 1: Help flip the Texas legislature.
- 59:52Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
- 59:53Speaker 5: But in California, too, I do think that there's like questions,
- 59:55Speaker 5: you know, because it was a system where you could
- 59:57Speaker 5: vote and you can vote in multiple places. You can
- 59:58Speaker 5: go where you wanted to vote. So I do think
- 1:00:00Speaker 5: that a lot of this is just sort of figuring out,
- 1:00:02Speaker 5: forget like efforts at voter suppression, like what happened to
- 1:00:05Speaker 5: break a system that was supposed to make voting easier
- 1:00:07Speaker 5: and better?
- 1:00:08Speaker 4: Yeah, I would love to hear from Alex Padilla, who's
- 1:00:10Speaker 4: Secretary of State, who I think has done really incredible
- 1:00:13Speaker 4: work in trying to make California the model for voting.
- 1:00:15Speaker 4: What happened?
- 1:00:16Speaker 5: Yeah, what were the unintended consequences of a plan to
- 1:00:19Speaker 5: try to make the system work better?
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: Yeah. All right. Well, we will talk to you. I mean,
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: we're just going to be sitting at this desk probably
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: because there's a debate, primary. Yeah. There's just a million things.
- 1:00:29Speaker 2: Hoping Biden shows up so we can interview him.
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: Hey, Joe Biden. Invitation's open still. Yeah.
- 1:00:35Speaker 2: Got a seat right here.
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: Got to get those young voters.
- 1:00:37Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: We're here.
- 1:00:38Speaker 2: We're here.
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: We're ready to chat.
- 1:00:40Speaker 2: Remember us?
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: We'd love to talk to you. Anyway, there's a debate
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: sometime next week.
- 1:00:46Speaker 4: It's a week from Sunday.
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: It's a week from Sunday.
- 1:00:49Speaker 2: Okay.
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: So then we have the primary next Tuesday. Okay.
- 1:00:51Speaker 6: Right? Yes.
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: All right. So, you know, we'll be back on our
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: normal schedule. We'll talk to you guys.
- 1:00:55Speaker 6: Bye.
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a product of Cricket Media. The
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: executive producer is Michael Martinez. Our assistant producer is Jordan Waller.
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: our sound engineer. Thanks to Tanya Sominator, Katie Long, Roman Papadimitriou,
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: Caroline Reston, and Elisa Gutierrez for production support. And to
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Nar Melkonian, Yale Freed, and
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: Milo Kim, who film and upload these episodes as videos
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: every week.
- 1:01:22Speaker 5: Bye.