Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Stephen Hoadley: International Relations Analyst on the increasing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

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Stephen Hoadley: International Relations Analyst on the increasing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Traders warning Kiwis to
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: leave Lebanon now if they haven't already. It comes as
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the fighting continues between Israel and Hesbila, and more than
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: five hundred and fifty people, including fifty children, according to
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: the Lebanese Health Ministry, have died just this week. I'm
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  Speaker 1: joined now by Stephen Holey, retired professor of International Relations.
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  Speaker 1: Good morning, Stephen, thanks for being with me.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Good morning, Marian.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Let's start with this attack overnight. Israel claims to have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: killed a senior commander, a senior Hesbila commander in charge
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  Speaker 1: of their missile systems. They've dropped two thousand weapons on
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  Speaker 1: fifteen hundred targets inside Lebanon just in the last day.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: And what do you make of those developments.
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  Speaker 2: Well, this is all part of Israel's attempt to stop
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  Speaker 2: the missiles firing into Israel. Israel is fighting an existential
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: war that means a war for its very existence against
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  Speaker 2: the surrounding Arab hostile Iranian backed opponents that are trying
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  Speaker 2: to eliminate that Israel from the map. So Israel, it
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  Speaker 2: takes the view that these civilian casualties are unfortunate, but
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  Speaker 2: necessary in an all out war against those who would
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  Speaker 2: do Israel harm. Now, I was glad to hear that
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  Speaker 2: you said, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health about
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: the five hundred casualties, what you could have also have
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  Speaker 2: said the Hesbelah dominated ministry of health. I've got an
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  Speaker 2: article in front of me from the Washington Post. It
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  Speaker 2: says the Israel's military targeted a school in Gaza. What
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  Speaker 2: it didn't say is that it targeted a Hesbelah command
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  Speaker 2: headquarters that had taken over a school in Gaza. And
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  Speaker 2: this is I think the bias of the news media
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  Speaker 2: that it's easy to report on the casualties, the women
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  Speaker 2: and children, the collapse buildings, the explosions. What is more
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  Speaker 2: difficult to report is what are the reasons behind this?
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  Speaker 2: Why is Israel doing these things? And Israel does have
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  Speaker 2: a point of view that I believe the media are
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  Speaker 2: not presenting as fully as they are presenting the victimhood
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  Speaker 2: of those casualties.
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  Speaker 1: And as Ntainna who said overnight, anyone who has a
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: missile in their living room or a rocket and their
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  Speaker 1: garage will not have a home, making the point that
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  Speaker 1: he's not going after Lebanon, He's going after Hesbelah.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, a very good point. And also, as you well know,
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  Speaker 2: Israel issues Wardings tells people if they know there's a
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  Speaker 2: Hezbolah facility nearby, a rocket launching facility, a command post,
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  Speaker 2: a cache of weapons, to keep their distance because they're
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  Speaker 2: very likely to be a target of an airstrike. And
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  Speaker 2: that's exactly what Israel is doing. This is within the
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  Speaker 2: guidelines of the laws of war. They're targeting military assets
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  Speaker 2: of Hisbela. They're not targeting civilians. And I think this
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  Speaker 2: is not well appreciated in the way the media is
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  Speaker 2: covering this particular contract.
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  Speaker 1: But you have to be the attacks on the walkie
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  Speaker 1: talkies and stuff, you're obviously going to hit civilians in
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  Speaker 1: the process, aren't you.
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  Speaker 2: Now, not at all. The walkie talkies and the hit
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  Speaker 2: pagers were specifically given to Hisbolla operatives.
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  Speaker 1: Some of them went off in supermarkets. I mean, you
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  Speaker 1: can't stop the children getting the fruit in the aisles
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  Speaker 1: from being hit too, can you.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. And many of the were given by
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  Speaker 2: the operatives to their sons and daughters to play with,
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  Speaker 2: which is against the rules of their own organization. In
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  Speaker 2: the case, a kind of casual corruption of the use
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  Speaker 2: of their assets. And yes there are incidental in casualties,
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  Speaker 2: but again the target, the intent was military assets.
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  Speaker 1: Will Stephen. Where does this go next? Because there's an
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  Speaker 1: interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning talking
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  Speaker 1: about the fact that Israel won't go on a ground
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  Speaker 1: offensive into Lebanon. They it was basically a draw a
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  Speaker 1: stalemate last time in two thousand and six, and that
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  Speaker 1: there are some pretty intense weaponry on the side of
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the Lebanese courtesy of Iran. They won't go in there.
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  Speaker 1: Where does the scene what happens next?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it depends a little bit on the United States.
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  Speaker 2: The United States is urging calm and negotiations and obviously
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  Speaker 2: urging Israel not to escalate, but at the same time
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  Speaker 2: quietly replenishing Israel's arsenal. And so Israel does have the weapons,
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  Speaker 2: but does it have the manpower, does it have the morale?
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  Speaker 2: The army is tired, their reservist The economy of Israel
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  Speaker 2: is difficult because people are away from their normal profession.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Can Israel sustain a ground offensive, which would be the
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  Speaker 2: most efficient way of moving the Hezbollo rockets back to
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  Speaker 2: the north past the Litani River in accordance with United
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  Speaker 2: Nations Resolution seventeen oh one. But there are doubts that
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  Speaker 2: Israel has the capacity to do that. So I expect
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  Speaker 2: the grounded the air attacks will continue, the artillery attacks
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  Speaker 2: will continue. Hopefully Hisbela will be degraded Israel and the
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  Speaker 2: rocket attacks on Israel will will stop, and consequently there
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  Speaker 2: will be a lull. But it's very possible that in
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  Speaker 2: another year or two we'll see a repeat of this
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  Speaker 2: cycle of violence.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and unfortunately that seems to be a recurring and
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  Speaker 1: common theme. Stephen Hadley, a retired professor of International Relations
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  Speaker 1: with US for more from News Talks ed B listen
• 5:53
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• 5:56
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