Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Multiple Fed Rate Cuts After Job Data?🚀Crypto Market Update

Transcript

Multiple Fed Rate Cuts After Job Data?🚀Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Raycut odds are skyrocketing, and one of the things we're
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: watching right now is how the FED is going to respond.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: We'll break it down for you. My name is Paul Baron.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Welcome back into the show. Let's get started. If you
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: want to thank our sponsor today, and that's Coinbase. This
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: is where you, guys can begin your journey into crypto.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: And believe me, right now, with the way the economy is,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: this is what you need to be doing is dealing
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: with the potential of the debasement of the American dollar,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: and of course digital assets are the way to do it.
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  Speaker 1: and that's going to happen in crypto. Very easy to
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: set up, whether you're a business or an individual. Let's
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: go over to the FED rate cut odds. Here, I'm
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: zoomed in on the poly market.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Right here.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: We are now closing in on ninety percent on a
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: quarter basis points decrease. But look at that fifty basis
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: points now climbing to almost ten percent. Yesterday, guys, that
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: was at six percent after the amount of data that
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: came out on jobs this week, and we're going to
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: break it down for you. I anticipate this might be
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: a chance, at least for chair Palell to maybe go
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: in and do a little bit more slicing and dicing.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is experiencing technical difficulties
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: right now as they get ready to drop a poop
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: bomb on the American public, and that is more job
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: loss and higher unemployment. So that's a problem right now
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: as we lead into this, I want to.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Go to a clip real quick. This will get you.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Into something that I think will be very unique, and
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: that is Lutnik hyping up the job numbers.
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  Speaker 3: Take a look, you know, you look at the unemployment
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  Speaker 3: rate numbers today, Wait till a year from today.
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  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: They have to get rid of people who are against
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: the president, against the elected leader of the United States
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: of America, and get people on side who just want
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: America to win.
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: Actually, they don't want someone who's there to win. They
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: just want somebody who's there going to give them the
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: most accurate, timely numbers that possibly exist. Just accuracy is
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: probably the only thing exact they want. So what I'm
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: what I ask you is today when we see those numbers,
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: whether we should believe they're accurate.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: I think they'll get better because you'll take out the
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: people who are just trying to create noise against the
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: president accurate numbers because this is going to be the
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: greatest growth economy. The employment situation in America is going
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: to be so impressive.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: You're just going to be impressed. I'm going to come
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: on your show and I'm going to.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: Make you say Donald trumps right, and we are all impressed.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll see if that happens, because right
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: now what's going on is there is a major impact
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: on the data, at least on the job side of things.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And I think maybe Lutnik is trying to manifest this.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: You know, he's out.
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  Speaker 1: There really promoting future changes here. Granted now, if the
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: FED rate comes, cuts come in, and we see some
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: accelerated movement in the economy, that's a possibility. Let me
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: go to this next clip because this is where the
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: job numbers actually come in, says we get ready to go.
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: To this number.
• 3:04
  Speaker 6: Wow, and the data is actually coming across the wires
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  Speaker 6: on time. Good job BLS twenty two thousand twenty two thousand,
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  Speaker 6: and if you look at the two month revision comes
• 3:15
  Speaker 6: out to minus twenty one thousand.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Of everybody, of.
• 3:18
  Speaker 6: Course, is trying to find out what's going on with
• 3:20
  Speaker 6: the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate comes in at dunta
• 3:25
  Speaker 6: dunda duh, comes in at four point three, So it
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  Speaker 6: moved higher. We haven't had a rate that high going
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  Speaker 6: all the way back to twenty twenty one. If we
• 3:35
  Speaker 6: look at year over year, that would definitely take us
• 3:38
  Speaker 6: back also to mid twenty twenty one. It comes in
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  Speaker 6: at thirty four point two. That would be the second
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  Speaker 6: lowest the year we've had several and finally labor force
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: participation rate and this has not been a good thing.
• 3:52
  Speaker 6: As I said, it's been steadily moving lower. And under
• 3:55
  Speaker 6: employment rate that zoomed up here also to eight point
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  Speaker 6: one percent. Once again, where are we going to find
• 4:02
  Speaker 6: a comp We're going to the fall of twenty twenty one.
• 4:05
  Speaker 6: Back to the panel, all right.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So, as you can see, that was basically the media
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: responding to this data right here, and that of course
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: is the COBEC letter talking about the economy adding only
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: twenty two thousand jobs in August. This was below the
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: expectation of the seventy five K. Unemployment rises to four
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: to three. This is a problem right now, guys, because
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I still think that our jobs numbers are way underreported,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: even through what we're seeing now, which is bad data.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I just don't trust any of this stuff coming out
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: of these government agencies. At this point, I anticipate this
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: economy is much worse. This is why we are starting
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: to see a flight to other assets. The Fed, of course,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: is going to I think, play into this. I want
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: to go to one more clip, because this is lutnet
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: talking about should we give some of this tariff revenue
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: back to possibly soften the blow.
• 4:55
  Speaker 7: Take a look, just because so much is writing on this,
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  Speaker 7: is there a plan to give back the tariff money
• 5:00
  Speaker 7: to the companies that have been paying it to this point?
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: How does it work?
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: This was fast and easy and incredibly smart. Nobody is retaliating,
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  Speaker 3: even the Canadians, the ridiculous Canadians.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: All right, So what you saw there was Lutninka course
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: kind of just reaffirming that no, they're not giving the
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  Speaker 1: tariff money back.
• 5:20
  Speaker 6: Now.
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  Speaker 2: I hope maybe the.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Trump administration will maybe realign this and possibly look at
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: rebates to the American people. Because that's really our tax dollars.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: And I think now what you've got to look at
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: is that companies are going to have to come to
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: terms that this is going to be the way it
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: is going forward. The real question is is how do
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: these tariffs continue to put pressure on American companies? Is
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: it enough to continue down the issue of continued job loss?
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I think that will be the big one that factors
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: into the FED rate cut.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a second.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: You know, with all this happening, guys, one thing you
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: need to do is, of course, is stay in a group.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: And the way to get in that is in our
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: own diamond circle. All you have to do is click
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: the link down below.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: You'll join.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I do an email out there every week and it's
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: the Bear Market Edge. What it will do is give
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you some insights not only on the research we're doing,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: but also on things like this where I feel like
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: the market is going, because this is getting to become
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: very dicey on how to manage this. So make sure
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: and click the link down below and you guys can join.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: It's absolutely free to do that. All right, Let's go
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: over to the rate cuts. Rate cuts are coming. Not
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: only did the jobs print come in lower than expected?
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: It was also showed that prior month's numbers were revised downward.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: We already knew all this stuff.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: This data has always been tainted, always has been, always
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: will be. It's never going to be right, So don't
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: assume that it's going to be right. Even when it's good.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be right. And right
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: now what we're dealing with is pretty much a I
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: think we're at one hundred percent chance that we're going
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  Speaker 1: to get a quarter basis points cut, and I want
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: to go to a clip real quick because this we'll
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: talk about whether or not we're going to get a
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  Speaker 1: second rate cut this year.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: He is a former FED vice gairman, someone who's been
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: inside that room. You saw the numbers, sir, what was
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  Speaker 4: your reaction as you were watching those pour through?
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, my reaction was as roughly as expected. Perhaps a
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  Speaker 8: weightcut and September may be appropriate. So I think the
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  Speaker 8: September right cut seems in place right.
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  Speaker 4: Now, Yes to September, but now that we have two
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  Speaker 4: more cuts built in, you're saying maybe not.
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  Speaker 8: That's exactly what I'm saying. I'm not saying a definite no,
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  Speaker 8: I think it's too early those inflation numbers. I'd say,
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  Speaker 8: am not necessarily giving comfort to a need for a
• 7:31
  Speaker 8: campaign of cutting just yet.
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  Speaker 4: Well, that's my real question. We're looking, by the way,
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  Speaker 4: the Russell two thousands up over percent, but one and
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: a quarter percent right now. So equities are moving higher
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  Speaker 4: on the back of what might be described as bad news,
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: all right.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: And this is normally the case. Equities and alternate assets
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: usually do because they understand what this means. It means
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the basement of the US dollar, and that's why you
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: see this right here. Gold now expected to hit to
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  Speaker 1: five thousand if the Federal Reserve loses its independence. This
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: is coming in from Gold and Sacks. I don't know
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: that that will be the case. I think it all
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: boils down to how Chair Pale navigates this next few months,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: because this will be critical, especially as we continue to
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: see job number loss climb. That's the issues, that's my predictions.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: We'll continue to see that El Salvador is buying what
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: is this buying gold?
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Not bitcoin?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: There is Bukueli himself smiling as he acquires fifty million
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: worth of gold. Interesting times, guys, right, now we are
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: dealing with a very unique market. One of the things
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: that you have to kind of compare is whether or
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: not inflation is moving investors directly to gold and now
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: into small caps.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: What do you think about the fact that investors are
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: moving in these specific areas gold, international and also small caps.
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: I think people are trying to say, hey, what's maybe underperformed,
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: what's going to offer me some diversification. Gold's been really strong,
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: also generally saying hey, you know, evaluations around the world
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: are a little bit more attractive than here in the US.
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: So I think investors are maybe underestimating the risk of
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: an acceleration of inflation. Inflation might actually start to go
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: up again, and so for us, it's about making sure
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: you have exposures in your portfolio that can do well
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: in those types of environments.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Well, I think he's right.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I think we are at that point where inflation could
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: go next gen. And if we see that, the problem
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: that you're going to deal with is how do you
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: recorrect that in an economy that's losing jobs. One of
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the ways that it could be done is through some
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: of the major companies. This is Tim Cook talking about Hey,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: we'll pitch in here and add some jobs to the
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: American economy.
• 9:41
  Speaker 7: Take a look, Tim Cook, you've done an incredible job
• 9:45
  Speaker 7: with Apple.
• 9:46
  Speaker 9: Thank you, miss President.
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: Very few people have been able to do what you've done.
• 9:50
  Speaker 7: Congratulations place you, sir.
• 9:52
  Speaker 9: That means a lot to me. It's incredible to be
• 9:55
  Speaker 9: among everyone here, particularly you and the first Lady. I
• 9:59
  Speaker 9: also want to thank you for helping American companies.
• 10:03
  Speaker 8: Around the world.
• 10:04
  Speaker 9: This is a very key, key thing. Really enjoy working
• 10:08
  Speaker 9: with your administration on those topics as well.
• 10:12
  Speaker 7: And Jim, how much money will Apple be investing in
• 10:16
  Speaker 7: the United States? You know, for you were elsewhere and
• 10:19
  Speaker 7: now you're really coming home. How much money will you
• 10:22
  Speaker 7: be invested?
• 10:23
  Speaker 9: Six hundred billion?
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Six hundred billion, right, so we're very proud to do it.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: That's great, all right, what a very I'm sorry, guys,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: that is.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: That's about as cringe as you can get.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: All these tech guys basically sucking up to Trump. I
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: don't believe a word they say. I don't believe that
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Apple's going to do anything. Zuckerberg sitting there looks like
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: he's lost in the wilderness. I don't understand that guy either. No,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: they're not going to administer new jobs. They're going to
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: continue to try to figure out the best way to
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: circumvent the American economy to build their products elsewhere. And
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: that's a problem. Think right now now, jobs are going
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: to be the key thing. And Trump went on further
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: into talking about how this might get bailed out in
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: the future.
• 11:09
  Speaker 9: Take a look the first sense the BLS commissioner, who
• 11:13
  Speaker 9: you fired.
• 11:13
  Speaker 8: A lot of people will be turning to you to
• 11:15
  Speaker 8: see if you believe the data that's released, can you commit.
• 11:18
  Speaker 7: I don't know they come out tomorrow, but the real
• 11:20
  Speaker 7: numbers that I'm talking about are going to be whatever
• 11:23
  Speaker 7: it is. But we'll be in a year from now
• 11:26
  Speaker 7: when these monstrous, huge, beautiful places, that palaces of genius,
• 11:31
  Speaker 7: and I think you'll see job numbers that are going
• 11:33
  Speaker 7: to be absolutely incredible. You're going to see job numbers
• 11:36
  Speaker 7: like our country has never seen before.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: Thank you very much.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: All Right, So the theme of what I'm hearing now
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: out of this administration. You saw the several clips there
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Lutnix kind of defending He's already starting to manifest.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Out in front, you know, down the road. Trump kind
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: of brings.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: It home at the end reiterating a year from now,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: don't worry about the numbers right now, because he knows
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: that these numbers are shit, knows that this economy is
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: now on the brink of possibly maybe one of the
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: worst downslides we've ever seen. That's the kind of thing
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: that's happening. And that's why I think you're starting to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: see things like gold skyrocketing. And if gold continues to climb,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you people know something and it's starting to
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: play out in the American economy right now. Jobs will
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: be the big one, that will be the killer point,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: that will be undeniably an issue that the FED has
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: to deal with, and that means multiple cuts and it
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: does mean money printing at the end. As we look
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: at that, then you have to kind of consider, well,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: digital assets, what's the play here?
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Do I look at.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin ethereum other plays out there in the market. Everybody's
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: been looking at digital asset treasury companies, Well, Sharplink right
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: now has a vote coming in. One of the interesting
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: points right here that they make.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Is this right here.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Usually these meetings occur for mergers, acquisitions, and other important business.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: So are we in a position right now maybe where
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: sharplink is going to acquire bmn R, or BMNR is
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: going to acquire sharp Link, or ether Machine is going
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: to acquire them all. I don't know, but what it
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: appears is there is movement now in the digital asset
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: treasury spot, so be very cautious in those right now.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: There's going to be some movement. I think that starts
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: some movement to the market. USA also is coming in
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: second place in global crypto adoption. This is behind India
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: despite Trump's Trump's push, I think it's still early for
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the United States. There's so much still that have kind
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: of has been a hindstrap to the United States and
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: traders here. Remember that we used to have to go
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: offshore deal with KYC, all the different problems out there
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: in terms of the derivative markets and perpetuals.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: That of course has started to change.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Now the SEC and the CFTC now signal openness to
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: onshoing perpetual futures.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: For US investors, this will be big.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I think it will start to generate more interest in
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the risk asset market, and I think overall this means
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: good news for American investors, and I think that is
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: what allows through the future here. Digital assets is a
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: way to go, guys. That's the only American dream left.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: If you're watching this right now and you're not in
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: our diamond circle, get in so you can too take
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: part in that. Of course, follow me out there on
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: X at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time, right
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: here on The Paul Baron Show.