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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday afternoon, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from
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Sasson Securities in Johannesburg.
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Here we are bowling along.
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The World Cup is over, David.
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We'll talk about that later on.
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It's also something to do with as you get older, you get into a routine.
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And I got into a four or five week routine of waking up in the morning, having a look
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what game was on, having a nap in the afternoon.
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So I could make the time to watch the games until two in the morning or
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something, you know, so you get enough sleep.
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Now, what do I do?
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I wake up in the morning, there's no football.
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You've got to wait.
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No, it's coming.
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Let's just take a little bit of a break.
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You'll be back into it soon.
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It's going to take time to adjust to Premier League.
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Yes.
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But, you know, within a few games, people will be hacking each other, you know, on
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opposite
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sides of the game at the moment.
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They'll be hugging each other.
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I prefer, I must say, Lindsay, I know we're not supposed to talk football early
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on.
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That's all right.
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But I think that a lot of Premier League teams would actually beat Spain
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or Portugal or any of those things because they've got the best of everyone.
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You know, they play together.
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They know each other.
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So some of the teams that we see are superb and I think could take on…
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any of the internationals.
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Yeah, I think you're right.
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And the time that the managers have with the players isn't enough.
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And Thomas Tuchel, the England manager, was quite right when he said the English
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players don't have the DNA
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to do this or to do that or to hold on to a lead or to play the game out.
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And he wasn't being disrespectful.
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He was just saying it needs fixing.
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The teams do because the teams play with each other.
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The players play with each other week in, week out.
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They know what to do.
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That's why the teams are so good.
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You put a bunch of people that never play with each other together for a few weeks,
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what do you expect?
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They don't have the synchronicity.
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Yeah.
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I agree.
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And I enjoy that.
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I think the level of football in some of the leagues is superb.
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When you see Even You look at the Premier League, I mean, even if you go down to
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some of the bottom teams, boy,
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they can hold their own.
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Yeah, you know, they're pretty good.
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They've got some young professionals, whatever.
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But I must tell you something quickly.
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I watched Little Boredom waiting for the game to start.
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I watched a documentary on Vinnie Jones.
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Oh, he's a fascinating character, isn't he?
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Not just his violence and his film career, but his depression and everything.
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Where is that, David, on Netflix?
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It could have been on Netflix.
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It brought us back to when I looked at some of the games that he played in the
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80s and you can't believe the state
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of the pitches and they were terrible.
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They were just mud patches.
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And you wondered how we actually watch games, you know, in those circumstances.
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But we did, and they played on those pitches.
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Believe me, when he chopped you, you flew into the air, came down six foot or ten
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foot, you
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know.
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Yeah.
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Anyway, oh Vinnie Jones.
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There was that, just before we get onto markets, which is what we're supposed to
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be talking about, there's a famous picture of Vinnie Jones
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with Paul Gascoigne behind him.
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Vinnie Jones, where he grabs him by the testicles.
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And he's squeezing hard and Gascoigne is crying out.
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It's a very famous picture.
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Was that in the documentary?
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Oh, yeah, and how?
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I think then they had laugh shots of the two together, you know, chatting.
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Okay, David, now then.
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I don't know what to say, really.
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You spoke last week very enthusiastically about a Korean company that had recently
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come to the market, SK
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Hynix, I think it was.
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and you've been reading a lot about SpaceX, et cetera.
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Have you been enlightened at all since we last spoke?
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Has everything become a bit clearer?
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I think what I've done a lot more work.
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Lindsay, I'm quite excited about what lies ahead, and I wish I could articulate
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it because I haven't written it down, but I think that if you...
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go into ASML's results, TSM's results.
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We're going to get Alphabet.
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We're going to get a number of results coming through now.
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I know the press and I know commentators have been very negative on AI, whether you
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are going
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to get a return for the amount of money that you put in and each dollar that you
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put in, you're going to get diminished returns.
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You know, the law of diminishing returns, that the more you put on, the less you're
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getting per dollar invested.
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All these theories.
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But the one thing that...
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struck me over the weekend and I'm going on about it is yes over the weekend
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they've got the Shanghai um ai
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conference and of course we got this new moonshot this new uh chinese um
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large language model or um ai software that's going to challenge anthropic or or
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so
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on but what does it mean you know what does it mean it means more and more
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investment is going to take place if you don't
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keep upgrading and constantly looking to improve your systems you're going to get
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chopped
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You know what I mean?
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You're going to fall behind.
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And I know it's going to mean more investment, but it just gives you an idea.
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It's like the space race.
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You've got to keep on thinking.
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So I think the theme is going to get bigger.
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Again, I'm going to qualify this by saying, and Viv always brings it up, we're
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not quite sure who's going to get the
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returns or whether you'll get the returns, but you can't ignore what it's going to do
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to economies, to
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businesses.
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and so on.
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And I find that the exciting place.
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We've been looking, and I'm quite happy to disclose this, at Rolls-Royce.
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Yes.
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And how it came up is that, you know, I've been talking about the
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number of people that I saw on my travels when I came back, went to the United
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States, was in New York, when I saw
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millions of people coming to the World Cup, and then went back.
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you know, via Heathrow and just saw the huge number of people that are traveling
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today.
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You've got to, you know, I know it's a Farnborough air show at the moment, and we
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learn a lot from that, you
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know, you learn a lot about the orders that are being placed.
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And, you know, despite against a backdrop of concerns about high interest rates and
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slowing economies,
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this is an industry that is huge and growing.
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But where I'm coming to is that when you go into Rolls-Royce and you see how
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they're repositioning
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the company, you know, they're no longer the motorcars.
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This is all around the aircraft engines.
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Engines, yes, exactly.
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Yeah, And how they're directing their attentions towards single-body
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aircraft rather than the big transatlantic or wide-body aircraft simply because of
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the
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number of people that are traveling internally, short distances and so on.
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But I think what is incredible is the quality of the engines and how
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sophisticated they are, which
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means that if you're an aircraft owner or an aircraft airline, you have to keep
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improving your fleet.
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You've got to keep renewing it.
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So there's so many areas around this.
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So much of it is also around technology.
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you know the how you build these engines and so on.
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So I think there's a lot, you know, there's a lot more to where we are going
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and what's available in the,
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you know, what's available to invest in and to see, you know, rather than trying
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to find some
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tobacco company, you know, that's now making cheaper cigarettes or vapes or
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something like that.
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I can't get excited by that, but I just think that there's huge areas that are
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very
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exciting.
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you know, around AI.
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I think the pharmaceutical industry as well.
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I don't know.
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It's not easy to find pharmaceutical companies because they have to go through
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trials and things like that and not everything
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works out.
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But that's why, you know, I remain very positive about where investment is going
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or where growth is
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going.
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Okay, and what was your conclusion when you had a look at, you know, you had your
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idea because there's so many people traveling.
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So you went to the airline industry, the travel industry, and you chose Rolls-Royce
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and started investigating because I saw something about
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Rolls-Royce and it said, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, but, and I think it was on
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investing.com the other day, but I didn't read it because it didn't
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interest me.
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Now it does interest me.
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What did you find?
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Look, I think it's worth going at.
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We've got to refine.
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We still got to refine the research.
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There might be that one sentence right at the end that says, hold on, wait.
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That happens.
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I've been in Airbus for a long time.
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in certain clients' portfolios because of this.
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And also they're exposed to defense.
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The Airbus and Safran, Safran's a French company as well, also involved
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in the motor side of the business for aircraft and that, and done very well on a
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progressive
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basis.
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Some years are bad, but overall done well.
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I think what we intend to do now is for newer portfolios, perhaps choose
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Rolls-Royce.
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It doesn't mean I'm getting rid of Airbus, but rather saying, okay, new money, this
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looks a little more exciting now.
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What's the competition?
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Is it still Lockheed?
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There's no one.
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No one?
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Well, there's GE.
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There's Pratt & Whitney.
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So it's very limited.
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It's the same as aircraft.
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You can get Boeing or Airbus.
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That's it.
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There's a couple of Chinese.
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Yeah, but you're not going to go and buy 200 aircraft.
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If you look at Farnborough, the areas like India, there's massive demand for
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aircraft.
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We're the high population traveling, even China.
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So it remains a very restricted area.
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I mean, that's positive.
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You like duopolies or you like it where the competition is not there.
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Not that they abuse it, but you haven't got much choice.
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Anyway.
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That's a good one.
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It's an interesting way of it might be a lecture.
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This is how I chose this stock, you know, because I was going through an airport.
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And I was in a queue for an hour and a half.
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And then I saw the queues of the planes.
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And then the Farnborough Air Show was on.
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It's not a monopoly, but it has, there's very big barriers to entry.
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That's another thing, David.
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Yes, they're right.
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Absolutely right.
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And trust.
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You know, you can't just say, well, someone around the corner is making a new
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aircraft.
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It's got to go through test after test.
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The other thing is that the airlines, I mean, if you go to Heathrow 5 now, it's a
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bad thing.
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You know, they need another terminal.
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And I mean, JFK is honestly that New York city.
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That site should have an airport like JFK.
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I mean, I know there are better ones, you know, if the hubs are either Atlanta or
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Detroit or wherever they
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are, Chicago and so on.
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That's a lot more internal travel.
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But, I mean, JFK, phew.
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And to get from JFK into the inner city.
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It's just crazy.
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And you've got London as well.
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Have you ever been to Charles de Gaulle, Paris airport?
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No, I have not for a long time.
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Oh, my goodness, David, it's so confusing.
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I mean, they've got a train, they've got like a metro system in place, so you get
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off and you're flying somewhere
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else.
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You have to go to G and you're in P or something like that.
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You have to take an hour to get there.
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It's so confusing.
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But anyway, we're on the point.
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So you're having a look.
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Anything else that caught your eye during your reading?
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I think that, look, I'm still looking at, I still think the results that came out of
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the semiconductors, TSM and
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ASML, I still think they're superb.
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And when you read what management says about the future, you've got to either
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back them.
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Lindsay, I'm in this conflict at the moment between, you know, I think we
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brought it up last week, between
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the company and the analysts and then The market, you know, I actually wrote an
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article for
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Julieta for Currency, you know, just bringing this up, the modern Mr.
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Market, trying to modernize
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Benjamin Graham's Mr.
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Market, you know, which he wrote about in the 1940s, late 40s, you know, not
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psychopath, what's his
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manic depressive, you know, one day he wants to buy, one day he wants to sell his
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shares, the next day he wants to buy them.
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You know, famous Mr.
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Markets.
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What I try to illustrate is what we're up against now, which is the more modern Mr.
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Market, which are hedge funds, the press, everything else as well, which you have to
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negotiate on a day-to-day basis.
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And also AI-driven funds as well, passive funds.
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I was talking to a fund manager, an active fund manager, this morning, and she said
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it's our performance.
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is more erratic now because of the volatility and its AI-driven funds are
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changing the way the market behaves.
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Now, long term, of course, the market will behave as it should behave on earnings and
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the economy and all the other indicators that are
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sort of old hat and traditional but still very relevant.
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But she says, oh, quarterly numbers, you know, are we beating our peer group, are
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we beating our
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mandate, all that sort of thing.
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up and down and all over the place because of AI-generated funds.
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Yeah.
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He's dead right.
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That was my conclusion.
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That's exactly what I'm saying.
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You mentioned you have to have discipline and patience.
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Look at Benjamin Graham who lost a lot of money in 1929.
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Eventually he had to find a way out and he said focus on the fundamentals and focus
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on intrinsic value and the fundamentals.
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And eventually...
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Patience will pay.
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Just remain patient and disciplined.
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And I think that's why I check the fundamentals because eventually they do
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count.
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But I mean, in the meantime, you have to encounter exactly what the fund manager
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said today.
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Why I wrote the article is I got a phone call from a client.
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Lindsay, I promise you.
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The client wanted to get out of NVIDIA and at half the price at which it's trading
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now.
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And I said, okay, only on one condition, that I can reinvest in the SOX, S-O-X-X,
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which was a
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semiconductor ETF, which I did.
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And that gave me, I didn't want to ignore that area of the market.
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Otherwise, it reflects on our performance.
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And for a bit, it lagged NVIDIA.
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But suddenly...
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As we've seen with Micron and Broadcom and Samsung and all of these, it just took
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off.
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And I don't know what, it's 83%.
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I can't find it on my screen at the moment, but it's up about 80%.
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Of course, it's going to come back.
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Where a share is run 83% in a few months, of course, it's going to come back 10%,
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15%, 20%.
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Take it for granted.
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Look at where it's come from rather than where it is at the moment.
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You have to justify this to clients.
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Look at the results.
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Look what's happened.
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Look where the share price is.
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Just ignore it.
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Just look past it.
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Just relax.
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And I think that's what we have to encounter.
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People love to measure their wealth on a minute-to-minute basis, on a day-to-day.
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There's no long term.
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They've got the screen in front and it's flashing exactly how much they're worth
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every minute of the day.
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It was much easier in the old days without internet and just you'd wake up in the
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newspaper and look at the business data to see where the
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blasted thing closed, you know.
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There's too much information.
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I'd love to go back to that.
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Anyway, David, Donald Trump, I'm surprised he stayed awake for two hours yesterday,
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actually,
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because he doesn't like football and it wasn't the most enthralling game for a
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neutral or a non-football fan.
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But he gave out the...
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cup to the Spanish and that must have stuck in his throat a little bit because
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the Spanish king was sitting free along
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and all the things he said about Spain.
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But anyway, he got through it.
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But he wanted to be in the picture and apparently he's completely furious.
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He's totally incensed and enraged by the fact that every picture, even the FIFA
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official picture, has
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airbrushed him out or AI'd him out.
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So he's not there because he had to be pulled over, to be pushed away, first of
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all, by the Spanish captain, Rodri.
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He guided him away.
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And then that ghastly little man, that goblin, Infantino, Gianni the Goblin,
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even had to pull him away.
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But he got in the picture, but they've taken him out and he's in, as I said,
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unhappy.
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It's not his position.
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It's not his celebration.
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No, it's not his celebration.
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No, I agree.
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You know, it's not a political photo shoot.
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You know, you've never seen the king or the queen or princess die or whoever it
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was in those photographs.
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They always, they dignify, they present and keep out of the picture.
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You know, you don't see Prince Charles hugging Messi or something like that.
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And that's the right way to behave.
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This is not politics.
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This is...
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This is football.
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Thank goodness.
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It is.
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We spoke about football at the beginning, and I enjoyed the World Cup.
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No, there's one thing.
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I've got one moan.
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Go on.
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Just one big.
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It's not even the quality of the football.
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And I've loved the World Cup.
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I think it was a major, major success.
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Yes.
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But a half-time show, no.
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Oh, no, please.
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27 minutes.
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Did you see Ronaldinho and Ronaldo, the old Brazilian stars, driving Madonna onto
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the pitch?
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And did you see how big Ronaldo was?
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No, he's like a blimp.
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It was embarrassing to watch.
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It's like Maradona went that way.
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And Justin Bieber, please.
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But you don't want that, man.
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This is not, you know, this is basketball.
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This is American NFL.
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You know, this is, I don't know, they degraded in a way.
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Can you imagine you coming off, you're playing a World Cup final.
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You know, you go in for your oranges.
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Remember, you used to have a quarter orange at halftime.
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That was at 10 minutes and back on the field.
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And now it's a half an hour.
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You know, you cool down, first of all, which is terrible.
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You know, I don't know what it does, and I don't know how the teams handle it.
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I don't know what they did in the change room to keep themselves motivated and the
19:48
right mindset.
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You know, you go in there, yes, you've got a 15-minute break.
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You want to rehydrate.
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You might have been knocked.
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You need to look after it.
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And.
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It used to be 10 minutes, now 15 minutes, you know, that's a long time.
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But that's it.
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Get back on the field, you know.
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And here you've got to wait.
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I mean, I mean, to watch a pop woman.
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I don't know.
20:09
It was horrible.
20:10
On and on, everybody horrible.
20:12
Yeah, it was horrible.
20:12
From Robbie Williams to Justin Bieber, it was a complete disaster.
20:16
And it's been trashed on.
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What Robbie Williams looks like.
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Hey, he looks like a circus clown, you know, with all the glitters.
20:22
Yeah, and all the Botox as well.
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Botox.
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David, let's see.
20:30
So we go on as normal.
20:31
We're in the middle of summer in the northern hemisphere, and you can feel it
20:34
in the markets.
20:36
The oil price is elevated, so inflation will start to tick up again, and it's all
20:41
the same.
20:41
But AI trundles on quite nicely.
20:45
That's it, I suppose.
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It's a recovery today.
20:47
I think it had to come.
20:49
I think that, you know, it was a bit oversold.
20:51
I think that overreacted to last week to the… to the numbers, and it's good to see
20:58
it recovering.
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Look, I'm not ready for a major recovery, to be honest.
21:03
I would like this to go on for a bit of time, the kind of indifference, you know,
21:07
and to build up a base
21:10
and a little more information.
21:12
I hope the results are okay, you know, that we're not going to get mad responses
21:16
to the numbers that are coming out this week.
21:18
You've got Alphabet and Apple and Tesla and all the tech companies come out, and
21:24
it's just...
21:25
I also just wish they'd come out and appreciate what the numbers are.
21:30
But anyway, we're going to have to get through it.
21:32
We get through this every three months when the numbers come out.
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But I must say, markets are behaving well.
21:40
It's Lindsay against the higher oil price, against the ongoing bombings
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in Iran.
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The market just seems to say, okay, well, this is going to happen.
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Let's just get on with things.
21:55
It's had marginal effect.
21:58
Other than in South Africa, it's going to hurt.
22:00
I think people have become more discerning about the information that they get.
22:03
They don't just say, oh, my goodness, the Houthis have just announced that they're
22:07
going to blockade all Saudi shipping and the oil price having
22:10
been up and then down again, went up again on the back of that.
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But then you look at it and you say, really?
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Can the Houthis do that?
22:17
Do they have the capacity to do that?
22:19
So you look at the headline, Market Reacts, because the market is trained to
22:22
do that.
22:23
then people read a little bit more and realize that it's not going to affect the
22:29
oil price long term.
22:30
It's just a headline-grabbing pronunciation from the Houthis themselves.
22:36
I think so.
22:37
I think there's almost this desire of whether it's Bloomberg, whoever it is, you
22:44
know,
22:45
a lot of the media to get the headline first.
22:47
And in many cases, I'm not sure what these sources are.
22:51
This is not a direct attack on Bloomberg, but rather that's what the press is.
22:54
Because why?
22:55
You've got X, you've got, I don't know, reels, you've got everything.
22:59
And everybody's fighting for our bills.
23:01
And you just don't know what the truth is anymore.
23:06
You know, you don't know.
23:06
You just say, relax.
23:09
Something comes out, you know, with Bloomberg.
23:11
There's no source.
23:12
Source is close.
23:14
Someone familiar with the matter is the one that they say.
23:16
Exactly.
23:17
There you are.
23:18
That's what they say.
23:19
And you don't know whether it is.
23:22
I know that they've got to be responsible, but they want to move the market.
23:25
They want to draw people to their screens.
23:28
You know, so I don't know.
23:30
Nor do I.
23:31
You've got to be careful.
23:32
But that's where we are.
23:34
That's the industry we're in.
23:37
You've just got to learn to work your way through it.
23:39
I like this story.
23:40
I think you've got to write an article about the way that you approach a stock.
23:44
You went out, and that horrible phrase, you went out and kicked the tires.
23:47
Then you did the research.
23:48
Then you applied it to AI.
23:49
Then the barriers to entry, all those sort of things.
23:52
And most of the, another horrible phrase, boxes were ticked.
23:54
And that's how you decided to go for it, maybe, once you got in, of course.
23:59
So that if anyone else likes it, it helps you.
24:01
But you see what I mean?
24:03
I think it would be a great article.
24:04
People love that sort of thing.
24:06
They love how-to articles.
24:08
How do you do this?
24:08
How do you do that?
24:09
This is what I did from an expert like yourself.
24:13
Yeah.
24:14
Look, Rolls-Royce have done well.
24:15
They're up.
24:16
over the last year about 35% up 18% this year but we still got to do quite a bit of
24:21
work you know you at the end of
24:23
the day it's their visions might be four years out or five years out you know and
24:27
you we're investing for
24:30
uh now i bet i must tell you on the same on the same tech though i think we all got
24:35
the defense story wrong
24:37
you know it's i'm looking at ron metall now which was a favorite were going out
24:41
there and the analysts were incredibly
24:44
bullish about it.
24:45
The share's down over 36, 37% year to date.
24:49
Admittedly, it had run like anything, but hello, you know, you say, wait, got this
24:55
one bad, got
24:56
this one wrong.
24:58
So sometimes they don't work.
25:01
You know what we're talking about, Rheinmetall.
25:02
Rheinmetall, the German military equipment manufacturer.
25:08
They make tanks and they make ammunition and everything.
25:11
But I think it's also sometimes when you do it, you just get out.
25:15
But all I want to do is say, no, we don't get everything, you know, you don't get
25:21
everything right.
25:22
Quite right too.
25:23
Okay, David, thank you very much for your wisdom as always.
25:25
David Shapiro is from SAS for Insecurities in Johannesburg, and that was Shapiro
25:29
World.
25:30
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