Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / "Liberation Day" Tariff Countdown🔥Crypto Market Crash?📉

Transcript

"Liberation Day" Tariff Countdown🔥Crypto Market Crash?📉 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: All right, so guys, let's jump into it. We're going
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: to be talking about Liberation Day according to President Trump
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: and what this means for the crypto markets. Stick around.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Baron. We'll come back in a
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: tech path. Let's get started. I do want to thank
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: our sponsor, and that is Coinbase. Coinbase is a great
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: place for you guys to get started in crypto, and
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: right now, with the markets where they are, we could
• 0:24
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• 0:27
  Speaker 1: cryptos that we've seen in this cycle. Coinbas is where
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• 0:34
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in crypto to get started. Let's get
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: into a couple of topics here. Obviously, the tariffs is
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: on everybody's mind this week. It's official Reciprocal Tariff Week
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: is here. President Trump is called Wednesday as Liberation Day.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Twenty percent plus tariffs coming on to twenty five countries
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: right now. The estimate on this is going to be
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: somewhere around one and a half trillion dollars worth of
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: imports just by the end of April. So think about
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: that April then run that through the end of the year,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: and we are talking multi multi trillions in terms of
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: what we are going to see around tariffs other things
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that are playing into this. I want to kind of
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: jump over to this article right here, which is where
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: we look at what countries are going to get targeted,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: because there's several countries that have very specific issues with it.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: He's imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel, autos. He's also increasing
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: tariffs on all goods from China. This is the bigger one.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: And then you look further the administration tariffs would cause
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: would be focused on around ten to fifteen countries with
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: the worst trade imbalances. We'll show you some of that
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: in a second. And then February also, Trump signed a
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: memorandum that directed the US trade officials to go country
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: by country. So they've been building on how to make
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: this possible for a few months. So I think this
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: is going to be a very big statement on Wednesday
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: from the United States. Last week is suggested that we
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: might scale back some of the plans, perhaps imposing tariffs
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: in some cases at lower rates than countries charge the
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: United States. So I'm looking at this still on a
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: situation where Trump is using it as a negotiation tool. Now,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: if you look at where the asymmetry is around tariffs
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: in general, I'll focus on this right here, the economy
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: tariffs on the US versus tariffs on them, and you
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: can kind of see free trade the kind of the
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: darker green there Canada, mostly in Mexico, some of the
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: South American countries, Australia, then you go into lower than US.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Really the only area when you look at that is
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: moving into the Middle East and then exceeding tariffs. Almost
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: every country outside of that, there's many of which all
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: those red ones are exceeding five to ten points in tariffs. Now,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that all these countries are getting over
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: in the United States, because I think a lot of
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: this is really dependent on very selective areas, whether it's steel, cars,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: you know, food, all those kind of things that play
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: into different classifications. And I think that's what we will
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: start to see is more of a case by case
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: situation with each country. But you have to remember that
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of this and the reason that the Trump
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: is going this direction has really come from this chart
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: right here. The latest trading partner in comparison to China.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: If you go back to to let me kind of
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: highlight that right there. If you go back to two thousand,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see the United States pretty much
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: led the way in terms of trade globally. But as
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: you start to look at twenty twenty, just four years ago,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: China has pretty much position as the global leader, and
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: we the United States has pretty much let that happen. Now,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I think Trump is at least attempting a repatriation of
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: some sort of manufacturing. The question is is how much
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: pain will the market take to allow this to happen.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I want to go to another one right here. China
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: and Japan and South Korea, all of these have said
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: we're going to respond, and we're going to respond quickly
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: and swiftly. So Mexico has already announced that their response
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: is coming as as soon as April third, literally the
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: day after. We will see immediately if this begins trade wars,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: because remember this is a part that does affect the market,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: is trade wars because it generates uncertainty. Now, I want
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: to go over to a clip real quick. This clip
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: will go into a little bit more around Trump's personality
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: versus politics.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Take a look, the stock market is not the economy,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: but it is a very clear voting mechanism. And what's
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: clear is that many institutional and retail investors think that
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: the current economic regime is pushing us toward a recession
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: that we don't have to have. Right, Donald Trump has
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: insulated himself from any feedback, looper, any sense of criticism
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: that his tariff policy might not be the best course
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: of strategy for American industry or global relations. This is
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: a New York real estate guy. He loves making big,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: awesome pronouncements and then using those big awesome pronouncements in
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: order to negotiate little one on one dealings where he
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: can rest for himself a personal sense of power or
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: money or pride. And I do think at the early returns,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: if you look at consumer sentiment, if you look at
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: the stock market, if you look at the ten year yield,
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: you have a range of what's called them aggregated economic
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: information telling us that the economy, consumers, employers, investors do
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: not like what's happening now, which is going to be
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: a really interesting test case. Maybe Trump's presidency is a
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: kind of right wing abundance, right, And I think it's
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: a worthy question, Right, Is Donald Trump just doing his
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: own version of abundance, and we should, even if we
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: disagree with his process ideologically, sort of root for the
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: outcomes that are that are likely under it.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: All right, seeing see that there is one of two
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: ways this is going to fall, and I've believe this
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: is a very pivotal point in Trump's camp, really his
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: whole campaign as president this time around. But where I
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: think this could play in is the long term effect
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: it could have on the entire Republican Party. And that's
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: the thing that is going to be very questionable. Now.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Chamath Polyeptia talked about this a little bit deeper, because
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Trump has pretty much been on this case for a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: very long time.
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: But listen it I stumbled into an interview he did, Nick.
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: Maybe you can find this with Larry King in nineteen
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: eighty seven.
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: We don't have free trade right now because if you
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: want to go to Japan, or if you want to
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: go to Saudi Arabia or various other countries, it's virtually
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: impossible for an American to do business in those countries.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: Virtually impossible. So the fact is that you don't have
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: free trade. We think of it as free trade, but
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: you right now don't have free trade.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: The delicate balancing act though, is that after twenty years
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: of globalism and a perverted version of free trade, it
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: is incredibly difficult to do that without the He's wackable
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: problems emerging in other areas right, whether it's inflation, or
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: whether it's retaliatory tariffs or consumption taxes. All of these
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: complexities I think are what has to get figured out.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: But the structural reason of why tariffs make sense is
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: not necessarily to overly penalize one country over another, but
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: it's simply to say, if you charge five percent, we
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: charge five percent. If you charge ten percent, we charge
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: ten percent.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: And I think that's the question because Trump could He's
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: really kind of at a point of no return now
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: because he's doubled down on this so much that if
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: this does not work, it pretty much decimates his presidency
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and possibly even his legacy going forward. This is the
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: problem that we are facing right now because it will
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: affect what Goldman thinks is possibly a recession, like many
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: have said, one that we don't have to necessarily do now.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: The key here is the probability around thirty five percent.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: This is up from twenty That's a big, big move.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Guys also they lowered the world's largest economy g top
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: for cast from twenty twenty five to one point five.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: That's another big hit. Three interest right cuts each from
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the US FED and the European Central Bank will most
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: likely take place also cut its year in target on
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: the S and P that would be down from fifty
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: seven hundred or from sixty two hundred to fifty seven.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: And that itself is enough to get people a little
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: bit concerned how this is going to play out. Now
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: you can think about that, and you have to worry
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: about where it's going to hit most, and that's going
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: to usually be at the American consumer. And this is
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: where it gets very interesting because this will be the
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: supporting mechanism for Trump's campaign as a president this time around.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: And I think the key here is they're going to
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: take the biggest hit. Watch this right here.
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: The brunt of this price increase that's you know it's
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: coming through to tariffs is actually is absolutely going to
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: be borne by the American car buying public. Flick at
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: some of the numbers from last year, the average transaction
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: price on a new car was nearly fifty thousand dollars.
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: The average monthly payment on those cars was over seven hundred,
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: seven hundred and eighty dollars a month, So that's a
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: big chunk already. Right, If you're a two car family,
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: you're nearly sixteen hundred dollars a month just in car payments.
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: You add twenty five percent to that, and some of it,
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: like I said, will be twenty five percent on the
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: whole car, some of it is twenty five percent on
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: parts of it. Those numbers are going to go through
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: the route.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: So that in itself is definitely going to be an
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: issue that is going to cause a lot of situations
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: to occur in the economy if we don't see these
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: concessions or some sort of negotiation that is done by
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration in trying to ease this hopefully throughout
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: the rest of the year. If you look at the
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: ten year inflation expectations, this is where it gets a
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: bit scary. Four point one percent over the next five
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: to ten this would be the highest reading since nineteen
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: ninety three. That's the highest reading since nineteen ninety three.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: And go back and look at that, because that is
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: even pre two thousand and eight these and that was
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: really kind of the last ree, you know, economic pressure
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: that the market had, and I think this is going
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: to be something that Trump along with the US will
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: have to address whether this is a long term run
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: or something that is looked at over the next eighteen months,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: because remember we've got midterms coming. This could absolutely blow
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the midterms up, which would pretty much make Trump fangless
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: for the last two years of his for his presidency.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So this is a very critical time right now. This
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: was an interesting letter from Larry Fink says, hey, US
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: doesn't get its DEBTA under control, the DEFENSIS could keep
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: ballooning and the American risks losing the position as the
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: world reserve. Now, this has been something that everybody's been
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: talking about for years and years and years, as if
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the United States would be losing the world You know,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: when you look at the potential for the real reserve currency,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: and I think the thing that plays into this is
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: what assets would be the alternative many people would look
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: at maybe other currents unlikely, but whether it's a bitcoin
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: or is digital assets gold, many of that is being
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: looked at right now because of the potential and the
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: impact of what we're going to see in a short
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: period of time. Here, of course, is Emmanuel Macron, who
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: has said that they think the theurea can dethrone the
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: US dollar for the world's reserve. I just don't see
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: that happening with world the issue that is facing Europe
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: right now and what it's going to look like in
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: terms of the ability to support one of the largest economies,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: well the largest economy in the world outside of China.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So you have to look at that along with other things.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: And I think the factor is is is this a
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: short term fix for the market right now or short
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: term pain with long term gain opportunities. Well, there's a
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: couple of annas out there that think that maybe it
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: will be, but take a look at this, Is this
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: a decent time to be stacking.
• 11:54
  Speaker 6: I think so, you know, yeah, I think you know,
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: part of this was bitcoin seasonally with is just not
• 12:00
  Speaker 6: going to be attractive until after March ends. And now
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: we're finally exiting March, and so I think not only
• 12:06
  Speaker 6: is the calendar looking better, but as you're saying, FED
• 12:09
  Speaker 6: and central banks are easing, qt's ending. I think that
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: that with positive Washington sort of tailwinds means I think
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: bitcoin can do well to the end of the year.
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: I think it's still one fifty or higher as possible.
• 12:24
  Speaker 6: I know it doesn't feel like it. But once we
• 12:27
  Speaker 6: get through this tariff and that agenda around tariffs, markets
• 12:32
  Speaker 6: can look forward to things that could be positive.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: The one that is to me a bit questioning right
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: now is still the issue of the uncertainty. The uncertainty,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I think is the key that the market really relates to,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: and that is going to be the factor going forward.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: I want to take a look right here because if
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: you look at the S and P, this is now
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: officially hitting its new low in twenty twenty five, and
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: this is down ten and a half percent. Guys, that
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: is a significant draw down on what is typically one
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: of the safest bets out there for American consumers. Investors.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Many people in mutual funds, etc. Are now looking at
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: their portfolios in a completely different way, and they're blaming
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: only one person right now, and it really boils down
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: to Donald Trump and is strategy around tariffs, because that
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: is the factor that's drawing this market down. Now. You
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: got to take a look at that factor and then
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: you compile that with what's happening with Doge, because this
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: is the other issue that is playing out right now.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Here's a clip on Elon and whether or not even
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: blockchain is going to be involved in what his efforts are.
• 13:37
  Speaker 7: Take a look, the names are similar, but they're doing
• 13:40
  Speaker 7: two very different things. So in fact, I was going
• 13:45
  Speaker 7: to call it like the Government Efficiency Commission, but that's
• 13:48
  Speaker 7: a super boring name, and then the Internet said no,
• 13:52
  Speaker 7: it needs to be called the Department of Government Efficiency.
• 13:54
  Speaker 7: It was like, well, Internet, theirnet is right. We change
• 14:00
  Speaker 7: the name from gument Efficiency Commission to Department or gunment Efficiency.
• 14:04
  Speaker 7: But there are no plans for the government to use
• 14:06
  Speaker 7: doge coin or anything as far as I know, so
• 14:10
  Speaker 7: that they happen to be similar names, but really it's
• 14:13
  Speaker 7: just we're just literally trying to make the government fifteen
• 14:16
  Speaker 7: percent more efficient, all.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Right, So he's talking about doge the token obviously the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: meanpoint not necessarily going to be involved in this. I
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: think this also plays into maybe his strategy around blockchain.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Is he going to implement some sort of blockchain for
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: the need that we have as a government to see
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: a full transparency of what's going on. That is the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: big question right now, because I would think by now
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Elon would have at least given some indicator that this
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: could be an alternative at least from a technological side.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: So I'm still a little bit concerned about that obviously,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: whether you don't like like him what he's doing or
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: not doing with those I think the biggest issue right
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: now is that we are facing a very different time
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: in America politics, in a very different time on the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: investing calendar. So let me know what you guys think
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: down below in the comments. I always love to get
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: your feedback on this. Do you think this is a
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: short term pain, long term gain or do you think
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: this is a massive miss by President Trump and it's
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: destined for failure. Let me know in the comments. Check
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: us out over in the Diamond Circle. It's a great
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: place to get additional content. Also, get me a telegram
• 15:21
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• 15:23
  Speaker 1: and out of there every day. You can reach that
• 15:25
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• 15:27
  Speaker 1: at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: on tech Path