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Iran Pledges ‘Decisive’ Reply to US Strikes as Israel War Rages · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
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  Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
• 0:21
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• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Obviously, the overarching news and market themes of the day
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: is Israel hitting nuclear sites as the world is now
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  Speaker 2: awaiting Iron's response to the US wrecking its nuclear sites
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  Speaker 2: in Iran over the weekend as well. All right, joining
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  Speaker 2: us now is doctor Aeriel Cohen, Senior Fellow Atlantic Council,
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  Speaker 2: joining us on the latest. How do we rank the
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  Speaker 2: probability of an Ironium response?
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  Speaker 3: It will be a response they unless the Iranian regime collapses.
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  Speaker 3: They will be trying to save face. The problem is
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  Speaker 3: their options are not great. One, they could try and
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  Speaker 3: attack tankers, and we see that the tanker rates, the
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  Speaker 3: insurance rates are all going already. Two, they could try
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  Speaker 3: to mine or close the Strait of Hormus.
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  Speaker 4: That will piss off.
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  Speaker 3: Their Chinese customers and endanger their political support from China.
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  Speaker 3: Three we see that Russia is talking but so far
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  Speaker 3: is not getting involved. Why because Russia benefits from high
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  Speaker 3: oil prices. The higher the prices, the happier puts in
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  Speaker 3: is so what else can they do? They could attack
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  Speaker 3: their neighbors. They would be cautious not to attack American Basis.
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  Speaker 3: It looks like because they could already could have attacked,
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  Speaker 3: they didn't. The regime is have broken because a lot
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  Speaker 3: of generals were taken out, so the decision making chain
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  Speaker 3: is WOBBLI. But if the attack American Basis, us will
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  Speaker 3: deliver devastating blows against their on if they attack the neighbors,
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  Speaker 3: same thing. And here's a question that a lot of
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  Speaker 3: people did not ask about the alleged closure of the
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  Speaker 3: Strait of Hormus. The pathway in the strait is through
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  Speaker 3: the Omani waters, it's not the Iranian waters.
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  Speaker 4: So are they going.
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  Speaker 3: To endanger their fragile relationships with other Gulf states a
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  Speaker 3: big question mark. Also, they're normalized with Saudi Arabia under
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  Speaker 3: the Chinese umbrella, the China broker that deal. Are they
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  Speaker 3: going to endanger both Saudi and China connections? So the
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  Speaker 3: option don't look good for the regime. And what I
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  Speaker 3: am worried about, what keeps me up at night, is
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  Speaker 3: all that highly enriched uranian. They enriched several hundred kilos
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  Speaker 3: to sixty percent. If the ability to build a deliverable
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  Speaker 3: nuclear weapon is destroyed, now what about a dirty bomb?
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  Speaker 4: And I think that should be on the table.
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  Speaker 3: US and Israel do not put regime change on the
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  Speaker 3: table yet. All the Trump had these musings about it.
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  Speaker 3: But all the boxes need to be changed in terms
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  Speaker 3: of ballistic missiles, in terms of enriched uranium, in terms
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  Speaker 3: of proxies, and eventually if we move to an agreement,
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  Speaker 3: that should be addressed in the future.
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  Speaker 5: Great Aeriel, is it your opinion that some people are
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  Speaker 5: talking about regime change but that seems far fetched? Is
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  Speaker 5: your sense that if there were to be regime change
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  Speaker 5: in around it would have to come organically from the people?
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  Speaker 4: Absolutely one percent.
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  Speaker 3: It's a country with three plus thousand year history, ninety
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  Speaker 3: plus million people.
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  Speaker 4: It's fractured. You have the Shah, the former.
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  Speaker 3: Shah supporters, the Crown Prince lived several miles from me
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  Speaker 3: here in Potomac, Maryland.
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  Speaker 4: We have the far left, the mujahidin Hulk people.
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  Speaker 3: We have the liberals in the regime, and of course
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  Speaker 3: we have IRGC and the Mullahs.
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  Speaker 4: So different components with diametrically.
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  Speaker 3: Opposed views of Iran society, the role of religion, the
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  Speaker 3: role of women. Don't forget this is a regime that
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  Speaker 3: was executing more people per capita than any other country
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  Speaker 3: in the world. This is a regime that a woman
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  Speaker 3: could be beaten and killed for not wearing the hijab
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  Speaker 3: in a proper way. So a lot of people inside
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  Speaker 3: Iran are very unhappy. But this is a totalitarian regime
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  Speaker 3: or quasi talk to all their terror or rechi that
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  Speaker 3: picks up, picks out dissidents and publishes them and kills.
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  Speaker 2: Them, which then makes an internal regime change enormously complicated.
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  Speaker 2: All right, doctor aiel Colemen, thank you very much, senior
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  Speaker 2: fellow Atlanta Council, for the latest in the Middle East
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  Speaker 2: or of what the actual options may be for Iran
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  Speaker 2: and the rest of the world.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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• 5:37
  Speaker 2: All right, let's turn to the non market reaction. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: when you see the kind of headlines that we saw
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  Speaker 2: over the weekend. The impact was estimated to be huge
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  Speaker 2: on financial assets, and that has not seemed to play out.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Emily lavell as Chief investment officer in New Mexico Climate
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  Speaker 2: Investment Center broadcase, Emily here, what do you make of
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  Speaker 2: what many are saying are a subdued market reaction?
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  Speaker 6: Hi, good morning to be here. I would agree.
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  Speaker 7: I mean, I'm pretty surprised that the markets haven't reacted
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  Speaker 7: a lot more forcefully. I think that, you know, this
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  Speaker 7: attack really expands the range of potential outcomes and creates
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  Speaker 7: a lot more potential downside and a lot more risk
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  Speaker 7: in markets. And I think it just underscores the need,
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  Speaker 7: the strategic need in the United States to have, you know,
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  Speaker 7: sources of energy coming from from all different sources, because
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  Speaker 7: you know, if we get an escalation from Aron, then
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  Speaker 7: we could really see, you know, some some pretty big
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  Speaker 7: energy shocks which could really impact inflation and prices all
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  Speaker 7: across the world, the US being no exception.
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  Speaker 5: What does the Trump administration mean for climate? Your Climate
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  Speaker 5: Investment Center thinking about alternative sources of energy?
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  Speaker 4: How are you guys.
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  Speaker 5: Kind of positioning what you do in terms of addressing
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  Speaker 5: the challenges of climate change with this new administration.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, well, that's a it's a good question, it's a
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  Speaker 7: tough question. I mean, honestly, you know green Banks if
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  Speaker 7: if you're not familiar with with what they are, you know,
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  Speaker 7: we know that we need an estimated three and a
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  Speaker 7: half trillion dollars of investment into the energy sector in
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  Speaker 7: order to transition away from fossil fuels by twenty fifty.
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  Speaker 6: And green Banks stand in almost.
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  Speaker 7: Every state to really support that acceleration of the energy transition.
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  Speaker 7: And you know, New Mexico is really interesting because we're
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  Speaker 7: the second largest producer of oil and gas in the country,
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  Speaker 7: but we're also second in wind potential, is second in
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  Speaker 7: solar potential, third and wind, and sixth and geothermal, and
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  Speaker 7: so the potential for real diversification of our economy is
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  Speaker 7: really significant. Unfortunately, what the Trump administration is doing through
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  Speaker 7: a variety of policies enacted, the most significant of which
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  Speaker 7: is the budget bill, the reconciliation bill that's currently going
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  Speaker 7: back and forth between the Senate and the House, is
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  Speaker 7: it really removes the majority of the incentives that have
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  Speaker 7: been in place since two thousand and five to bring
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  Speaker 7: cleaner electrons onto the grid, and so you know, unfortunately,
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  Speaker 7: I think what that means for the whole economy is
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  Speaker 7: going to be higher energy prices, less resilience, less manufacturing,
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  Speaker 7: fewer jobs, you know, big multiplier effects for us Here
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  Speaker 7: at the Green Bank, we continue to see a lot
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  Speaker 7: of projects that are really interesting and benefit both you know,
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  Speaker 7: the low income communities that we're trying to serve and
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  Speaker 7: the broader economy.
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  Speaker 6: But it's definitely going to be more challenging.
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  Speaker 7: And there are estimates that fifty percent of the backlog
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  Speaker 7: and that's in the interconnection queue right now on the
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  Speaker 7: grid could be at risk if the bill passes in
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  Speaker 7: its current.
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  Speaker 2: Form, and that's not even take into account how long
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  Speaker 2: that line is to actually get connected to AGRID. So,
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  Speaker 2: if I was looking at individual stocks, is this like
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  Speaker 2: a fossil fuel play then at the end of the day,
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  Speaker 2: or are there are more nuanced ways to play this?
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  Speaker 7: You know, I sort of think of the way the
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  Speaker 7: US has been in the last couple of months in
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  Speaker 7: the way that I'm used to looking.
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  Speaker 6: At emerging markets.
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  Speaker 7: I invested in emerging markets for almost ten years, and frankly,
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  Speaker 7: I think you've got a skate where the puck is
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  Speaker 7: going when it comes to Paul, it's it's really hard
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  Speaker 7: to stick your neck out there. That being said, I
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  Speaker 7: do think there is maybe some potential in the utility
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  Speaker 7: scale UH solar and wind market. And the reason for
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  Speaker 7: that is, you know, at the same time that we're
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  Speaker 7: doing all these things to hurt this cheap, easy to
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  Speaker 7: get on the grid energy, we're having this big national
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  Speaker 7: discussion about how we become AI leaders. And we heard
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  Speaker 7: next to our CEO, John Ketchum say last week, if
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  Speaker 7: we kill solar and wind, we're going to lose the
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  Speaker 7: AI race. And so I do think that there's the
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  Speaker 7: potential for you know, lawmakers to come back to the
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  Speaker 7: table to try to support some utility scale solar plus storage.
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  Speaker 7: In particular, the administration is still very focused on domestic manufacturers,
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  Speaker 7: so I think a name like First Solar my benefit.
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  Speaker 7: You've got the you know, gas turbine manufacturers GeV and Siemens.
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  Speaker 6: But this is a cyclical industry.
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  Speaker 7: They've got backlogs to twenty thirty two now, and I
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  Speaker 7: just see more downside than upside at this point, with
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  Speaker 7: the back clogs the way that they are.
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  Speaker 6: Then you've got clean firm power.
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  Speaker 7: Which is you know, nuclear geothermal, and that's all well
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  Speaker 7: and good, and I think that that does need to
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  Speaker 7: be built out, but there aren't that many ways to
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  Speaker 7: play it in the market. You know, you can look
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  Speaker 7: at the Spraught Uranium Trust. There's a geothermal pure Play,
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  Speaker 7: or Matt there's Constellation Energy Group, but it's you know,
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  Speaker 7: it's it's tough out there. I think the reality is
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  Speaker 7: that you're going to start to see some people have
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  Speaker 7: to come back to the table because solar and storage
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  Speaker 7: is the cheapest and fastest way to get new energy
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  Speaker 7: onto the grid.
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  Speaker 5: Emily, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: Emily Levelle, chief investment Officer for the New Mexico Climate
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: Investment Center.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 10:47
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• 10:51
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• 10:54
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• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Taking a look at the market here, you're looking at
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  Speaker 2: Brent off by one point one percent and WTI crewed
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  Speaker 2: off one point two percent. The question I'm getting is
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  Speaker 2: why why aren't we higher in prices? So I'm gonna
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  Speaker 2: ask that question to Emri Descent. She is founder and
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  Speaker 2: director of Market intelligence for Energy Aspects. All right, Amrito,
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  Speaker 2: what's your answer?
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  Speaker 8: Why are we lower in prices today? Yeah?
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  Speaker 9: Well, because again we haven't seen any actual supply disruptions.
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  Speaker 9: You know, we've been saying that, Yes, while Iran is
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  Speaker 9: threatening to close the straits or Foremos, that remains very
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  Speaker 9: much the last resort for them, right because if they
• 11:32
  Speaker 9: did that, they are really going to get the US
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  Speaker 9: involved in a much much bigger way than they have
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  Speaker 9: been so far. Any country that's even neutral towards it
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  Speaker 9: will basically become far more kind of angry about the
• 11:44
  Speaker 9: whole situation. And I don't think Iran necessarily wants to
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  Speaker 9: attract the hour of the whole world, given how weak
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  Speaker 9: the regime is right now, So I think that's a
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  Speaker 9: big part of it. The other one is a bit
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  Speaker 9: more technical. We've seen most of the crude traders trade
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  Speaker 9: this via the ouptions market, So when you are short
• 12:02
  Speaker 9: call options as prices are going up, you actually are
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  Speaker 9: taking profits all the way through, right because you're kind
• 12:08
  Speaker 9: of selling out of your position. So that's kind of
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  Speaker 9: adding to it, I would say, generally speaking, unless Iran
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  Speaker 9: actually escalates to the point of disrupting supplies, we are
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  Speaker 9: probably not going.
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  Speaker 8: To see any significant increase in prices.
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  Speaker 5: From here, Amrina. Is there a consensus about how much
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  Speaker 5: geopolitical risk premium is in oil these days?
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  Speaker 9: I don't know about consensus, but I think this one's
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  Speaker 9: relatively easy, right because we were in the high sixties
• 12:38
  Speaker 9: for Brent, we were already moving higher, just based on
• 12:41
  Speaker 9: the fact that fundamental had been stronger than people expected.
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  Speaker 8: But I would say, given where.
• 12:46
  Speaker 9: We are now versus where we start started when the
• 12:49
  Speaker 9: conflicts kind of headline started coming in, it's about ten dollars.
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  Speaker 6: What's your question then?
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  Speaker 2: So if I'm assuming the question you're getting is why
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  Speaker 2: aren't oil prices higher?
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  Speaker 6: But what's you question?
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  Speaker 9: I mean, for me, the real question becomes the medium term, right,
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  Speaker 9: Like I know the focus for the marketers in the
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  Speaker 9: Straits and Foremost, but we know this isn't over yet, right.
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  Speaker 8: We know Israel while kind of.
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  Speaker 9: You know, walking typrope around this, they are talking about
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  Speaker 9: regime change and what does that mean? A political upheaval
• 13:23
  Speaker 9: has never been associated with a good outcome for oil production.
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  Speaker 8: Be It Eerrah bit Kuwait, be It Iran in the past, be.
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  Speaker 9: It Libya, and I do wonder for the medium term outlook,
• 13:36
  Speaker 9: like do we actually see lower Iranian production over the
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  Speaker 9: next couple of years at a time when OPEC plus
• 13:42
  Speaker 9: will also have less PEC capacity because they're bringing back
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  Speaker 9: a lot of production. I know this is not the
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  Speaker 9: time because of you know, the focus obviously has to
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  Speaker 9: be does Iran react and clos the straits? But for me,
• 13:53
  Speaker 9: that's the more interesting thing that our long term ail
• 13:55
  Speaker 9: price is undervalued given everything that was already going to happen,
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  Speaker 9: and now we added around to the mix.
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  Speaker 5: How has OPEC been behaving OPEK plus Has it been
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: rational over the last I don't know, just since maybe
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: you know October seventh of last year when things got
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  Speaker 5: really really ratcheted up in the Mid East.
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean it's a great quitiontive. They're rational.
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  Speaker 9: I mean you have to understand kind of their logic
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  Speaker 9: to this, and I think they have.
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  Speaker 8: Been consistent, is what I would say.
• 14:23
  Speaker 9: Saudi Arabia has been saying, Look, it needs to be
• 14:25
  Speaker 9: equitable cuts, everybody needs to be a part of.
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  Speaker 8: This, and I think that's what they have been doing.
• 14:30
  Speaker 9: But at the same time they have also been kind
• 14:35
  Speaker 9: of obviously there's been disagreements between OPEC members, with Kazakhstan
• 14:40
  Speaker 9: cheating clearly and some of the others as well with
• 14:42
  Speaker 9: regards to, you know, what that kind of policy should be.
• 14:47
  Speaker 9: I think that in terms of what's going on with
• 14:49
  Speaker 9: the Middle Eastern conflict, one thing they're very very clear
• 14:51
  Speaker 9: is they don't want to get drawn into it.
• 14:53
  Speaker 8: They want to make sure that their.
• 14:56
  Speaker 9: Genuine infrastructure, not just energy, it's protected, and I think
• 15:00
  Speaker 9: they're going.
• 15:00
  Speaker 8: To try and be as neutral as possible.
• 15:02
  Speaker 9: And again, this is one of the reasons why I
• 15:04
  Speaker 9: don't think they're going to be surging production if there
• 15:07
  Speaker 9: were to be an Iranian outage, because the last thing
• 15:09
  Speaker 9: they want is to then get attacked because Iran's going
• 15:12
  Speaker 9: to be like, you're taking advantage of our situation.
• 15:15
  Speaker 7: Right.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Well, speaking of here's an extremely unfair question. When President
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: Trump tweeted earlier, I want lower oil prices. Drill baby drill,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: Come on you, guys, I'm watching who's the you. I mean,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: who is he talking to specifically?
• 15:29
  Speaker 9: I mean drill baby drill refers to the US producers, right,
• 15:32
  Speaker 9: and I mean it's I did smile when I saw
• 15:35
  Speaker 9: that because I was like, yes, you say that, but
• 15:38
  Speaker 9: at the same time, you know, thanks to tariffs, thanks
• 15:42
  Speaker 9: to just kind of broader his economic policies, oil prices
• 15:46
  Speaker 9: are a lot lower. Again, if you take away the
• 15:48
  Speaker 9: ten dollars geopolitical risk premium, then it has been in
• 15:52
  Speaker 9: the in the last you know, couple of years, so
• 15:55
  Speaker 9: there is no incentive for their producers to drill.
• 15:58
  Speaker 8: We know we've talked.
• 15:59
  Speaker 9: About this, Alex, you and I about how Gassi are
• 16:01
  Speaker 9: the acreage is getting all of these reasons right. So
• 16:05
  Speaker 9: Drew baby drul remains a five dream. I think that
• 16:08
  Speaker 9: it's regardless of why the prices are simply because you
• 16:12
  Speaker 9: are you know, you are in a situation, at least
• 16:14
  Speaker 9: for the crude oil side of things, is geology is playing.
• 16:17
  Speaker 8: It's pot we're going to get nngs, We're going to
• 16:18
  Speaker 8: get gas.
• 16:19
  Speaker 9: But I don't think that's going to necessarily translate into
• 16:22
  Speaker 9: oil production.
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: All right, I'm Rita.
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: Thank you so much for we appreciate that. I'm Rita
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: send founder and research director of Market Intelligence joining us.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
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• 16:46
  Speaker 2: Terry Hayes, founder of Pangea Policy, joining us in the
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: middle of all of this. Terry, and let's just start
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: with what we're seeing overseas. Are we too complacent about
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: further action between the US around and is real? Or
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: do you feel like one and done? Moving on?
• 17:03
  Speaker 10: Good morning, Alex, I apparently am the uh am, the
• 17:07
  Speaker 10: person urging humility and a sea of certainty. You know,
• 17:10
  Speaker 10: I've heard, he written, heard and and read a lot
• 17:14
  Speaker 10: of people saying this morning, well I can dandalists so saying, oh,
• 17:17
  Speaker 10: I know exactly how this is going to go. Iran's
• 17:19
  Speaker 10: going to super peace and this will happen, and that happened,
• 17:21
  Speaker 10: and the other happened, and here's the you know, here
• 17:24
  Speaker 10: the the the knock on effects from China and Russia
• 17:27
  Speaker 10: and elsewhere. We're in the phase of this conflict where
• 17:30
  Speaker 10: downside economic risk is heightened, much more heightened than people think,
• 17:35
  Speaker 10: because the possibility for irrational action is much greater at route.
• 17:43
  Speaker 10: So Terry, I could go on, I will know.
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: It was just it seems like President Trump's policy seemed
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: to change a little. There's the outlook seemed to change
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: a little bit from you know, America first to now,
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: you know, really ratcheting up the stakes in Iran. You
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: how do you think has outlook changed.
• 18:02
  Speaker 10: I've never looked. I got to tell you, Paul, I've
• 18:04
  Speaker 10: never been the guy that thought, I think I said
• 18:06
  Speaker 10: this to you yesterday too. I've never been the guy
• 18:08
  Speaker 10: that thought that that this is some sort of a
• 18:11
  Speaker 10: U turn or anywhere close to it. I think Trump
• 18:14
  Speaker 10: is absolutely right to come in and put a fresh take,
• 18:16
  Speaker 10: a fresh eye on the nature of the United States
• 18:19
  Speaker 10: commitments and how and what's most important for America certainly,
• 18:23
  Speaker 10: But you know, this got taken as withdrawal all over
• 18:27
  Speaker 10: the world, and that was never going to happen.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 18:30
  Speaker 10: You know, we are. We're in it to our teeth
• 18:33
  Speaker 10: in Taiwan, our interests in the Middle East are are
• 18:38
  Speaker 10: are very very important to the national interest in the
• 18:41
  Speaker 10: United States. And even in a situation like Ukraine, you know,
• 18:44
  Speaker 10: we haven't left. They're not crazy about where we are,
• 18:48
  Speaker 10: but we've given him more weapons, We've signed a minerals deal.
• 18:51
  Speaker 10: We're not gone, and and we're not going to be
• 18:54
  Speaker 10: gone either. And now it's very apparent to those for
• 18:58
  Speaker 10: whom it wasn't obvious already that we're going to be
• 19:01
  Speaker 10: in it to to stay. And you know, this is
• 19:03
  Speaker 10: a clear situation I think where the uh, the duties
• 19:07
  Speaker 10: of the president O weigh the preferences of the candidate.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: Well, what is in it to stay?
• 19:13
  Speaker 6: In it to stay?
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, like what what does that really entail?
• 19:17
  Speaker 10: Well, you know, it's you know, we have we have
• 19:19
  Speaker 10: continued to defend Taiwan and UH and you know, to
• 19:24
  Speaker 10: work our work our military and economic interests there Middle East. UH.
• 19:29
  Speaker 10: You know, it's not for nothing that the President made
• 19:32
  Speaker 10: a centerpiece of his early second term a week long
• 19:36
  Speaker 10: trip to the Middle East with the idea that we're
• 19:39
  Speaker 10: going to be using interconnected economic alliances in part to
• 19:44
  Speaker 10: ring fence the Iranians and the Ring then the Iranians
• 19:47
  Speaker 10: or client state of China, so in essence ring fence
• 19:50
  Speaker 10: China and Russia as well. So that's not uh, that's
• 19:54
  Speaker 10: not new. And it's clear now that you know, the
• 19:57
  Speaker 10: President would like the Europeans to stay up up to
• 20:00
  Speaker 10: the plate on defense. UH, and you see that from
• 20:04
  Speaker 10: from the NATO resolutions that they're finally getting serious about that.
• 20:08
  Speaker 10: But you know, even then, we haven't completely withdrawn from Ukraine,
• 20:13
  Speaker 10: as was widely assumed in the United States six months ago.
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 20:17
  Speaker 10: So you know, we're we are not melting away from
• 20:20
  Speaker 10: our from our global responsibilities here by any stretch.
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: Terry you mentioned Ukraine. Does a calculus there for mister
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: Putin change given the actions of the US in the
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: in the Middle East over the weekend.
• 20:35
  Speaker 10: Yeah, and well, you know, good news bad news. The
• 20:37
  Speaker 10: increased price of oil helps him. Uh, and and and
• 20:42
  Speaker 10: around does something that that sparks a significant increase in
• 20:46
  Speaker 10: the price of oil. Obviously Putin has helped. So uh,
• 20:49
  Speaker 10: that's not good news for Ukraine. But but on the
• 20:51
  Speaker 10: other hand, what you have is increased not only increased resolution, uh,
• 20:57
  Speaker 10: demonstrated by the European allies, wells, the United States and you,
• 21:02
  Speaker 10: you and my estimation could do an awful lot more
• 21:04
  Speaker 10: than they than they already are, which is the precious
• 21:07
  Speaker 10: little but the U. But not only that, but you've
• 21:12
  Speaker 10: got a situation here where there's a clear commitment by
• 21:15
  Speaker 10: the president with a clear follow through. And that's that
• 21:19
  Speaker 10: alone is bad news for Putin. So uh, you know,
• 21:22
  Speaker 10: kind of a mixed a mixed bag overall. But I'd
• 21:24
  Speaker 10: say for Russia. It's overall negative.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: And before you let you go, Dave palat test to
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: find to the House tomorrow and the Senate on Wednesday,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: what do you think the biggest talking point is going
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: to be?
• 21:36
  Speaker 10: Well, you know, here's the thing. It's uh. I think
• 21:39
  Speaker 10: we all know this. Pal's not going to say anything
• 21:42
  Speaker 10: new personally. Secondly, you know, as Mike McKee just reminded
• 21:46
  Speaker 10: the audience, Uh, you know, the the key here with
• 21:48
  Speaker 10: the Fed is read every word, and he pointed out
• 21:52
  Speaker 10: a number of words uh in Mickey Bowman's statements that
• 21:55
  Speaker 10: the market isn't reading, for example. But Paul can't say
• 21:59
  Speaker 10: anything new in this testimony, in this twice year testimony.
• 22:04
  Speaker 10: While Mickey Bowman may talk about the possibility of July
• 22:08
  Speaker 10: doesn't mean July. Pali is certainly not going to to
• 22:11
  Speaker 10: endorse that or anything else. He's speaking for the entire bed.
• 22:14
  Speaker 10: What's going to happen on Tuesday and Wednesday really is
• 22:17
  Speaker 10: that Congress is going to talk over Pal's head. They
• 22:21
  Speaker 10: know that. Then none of that's going to happen. What
• 22:23
  Speaker 10: markets get out of this is is a look forward
• 22:26
  Speaker 10: on the meaning of the tax bill and promises for
• 22:30
  Speaker 10: growth and also for fiscal and why that situation is
• 22:34
  Speaker 10: not going to clear get cleared up anytime soon, you know,
• 22:37
  Speaker 10: with the actors taking their usual stances and their usual marks.
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: Terry, thanks as always for joining us. Always appreciate getting
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: your perspective there. Terry Haynes, founder of Pangaea Policy, joining
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: us from Rhington d C. Via that zoom thing.
• 22:50
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