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Congress Sending Emergency Cash For War!?💸Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Emergency cash is on the way today. We'll break it
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: down to you why this matters to the markets. Let's
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: just jump right into it. I do want to thank
• 0:07
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• 0:10
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• 0:47
  Speaker 1: your assets right there on self custody. Let's get into
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: it today. I want to lead off with a Politico
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: story that kind of broke the issue around funding the
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: war in Iran. Here it is Johnson, of course comes
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: in and says Congress will pass an Iranian war funding
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: when it is appropriate. They're talking about fifty billion dollars
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: right there, guys. I'll zoom in on this a little bit.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Fifty billion will pass the supplement when it's appropriate and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: we can get it right, and then we're nowhere close
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: to that right now, is what Scalisee has said. And
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: then of course we have Bloomberg coming in right behind it.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: The devins industry is expecting fifty billion in a package
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: to boost munitions. If you look at this right here,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the defense industry officials basically are expecting the Pentagon to
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: request supplemental funding as soon as Friday to shore this
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: up and then of course gets into munition stockpiles, et
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: cetera around what's going on in Iran, which means this
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Friday you are going to see some changes. If this
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: does go through, this means the FED is definitely going
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: to be on the front line to print and the
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: other thing that's hitting right now. As Senate Republicans vote
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: down the legislation to halt the war in Congress's first
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: vote on the conflict, you look at this right here. Center.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Republicans voted down the effort on on Wednesday to halt
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: President Trump's war against Iran, demonstrating early support for a
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: conflict that is rapidly spread across the Middle Street Middle East.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be very impactful on
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: the market in general, with this kind of thing happening
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: in DC, especially around everything that's going on at this time.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I want to play a clip because this looks like
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: all of this may be dead and buried in terms
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: of this particular initiative out of DC. Take a look.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Is it thing dead now? Is it dead and buried? Senator?
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: Well, this one's dead and buried now. If we're going
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: to Cuba and go somewhere else, I'll bring that up.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: But they want to tell the president of the United
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: States whether he can start a conflict or defend the
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: American people or American people abroad. It's just absolutely amazing.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: They want five hundred and thirty five to commanders in cheap.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: That's all we need up here. We need one person.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: We got Donald Trump. Let him make the decisions. He's
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: done a great job, going to do a great job,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: and he's going to make a lot of difference in
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: our country, in the world.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: He's doing a hell of a job.
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: You're a sol right sir, he's changing history reached, he's
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: changing the whole world balance and power in favor of
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: the United States.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So if you look at that statement, it is clear
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: there's not going to be much pushback if the Republicans
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: have anything to do it with it. Right now, if
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: you look at the Polymrket Congress passes I Ran Warpowers
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: resolution by March first, not a chance. This is coming
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: in at almost nothing right now, three point nine percent opportunity.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Even Bernie Sanders, he comes in, defends against this as well.
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  Speaker 1: He basically says, hey, Pentagon just got nearly a trillion,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: you're asking for another half trillion coming in now. He
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: wants even more money for a war he started in
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Iran without congressional approval. You can see the two sides
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: are very far apart. This will result in a volatile market. Now,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: whether we see this happening in risk assets bitcoin, if
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: we see this happening in gold or the S and
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: P five hundred, all of this is going to roll
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: down into what you and I are going to be
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: dealing with going forward. Other things that are going to
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: happen here, of course, is the price of oil. This
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: is another issue that will affect the interest of inflation,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: and of course it's going to affect you and everyday
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Americans in a big way. Straight at horm Moose traffic
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: is it's effectively down to zero right now. Now get it,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I understand me. Andy. You are going to probably push
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: back and say, wait a minute. Trump has got a
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: solution for that. He actually did come out and say
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: that the Navy would be doing escorts, and they also
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: backed up the fact that Lloyd's of London had pulled
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: out of ensuring the straight of Hormos and that is
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: now being done by the International Development Finance Corporation, which
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: is basically going to take the position of Lloyd's of London.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So if they keep the free flow of oil going through,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: that will take some of the edge off of the markets.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: But in general, if you look at the markets right now,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Brent oil has surged to eighty two fifty a barrel.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: This is twenty percent since January, So in the last
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: thirty forty days you need to watch oil prices. This
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: will be a big deal because it could create a
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: lot of market volatility. Other things you got to look
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: at right here as comparisons that we saw back here
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: in the lows back in June of twenty twenty, where
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: oil and gas I should say, was around a buck
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: ninety six. That of course skyrocketed up to five dollars
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: a gallon in two years, just two years, guys. So
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: this is a big deal because we have been on
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: a slide down. So Trump's position of getting affordability back
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: to Americans, he is now definitely fracturing that contract with
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: American voters. And we are in a mess with Iran.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Whether you like it you don't like it. The key
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: here is it's going to affect a market. It's going
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: to affect Americans, and I think it's going to affect
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: pocketbooks in a big way. You look around the globe,
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  Speaker 1: You've got the Japanese saying setting up for this because
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: they are also setting up their oil refineries, which have
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: asked the government to release oil from national reserves. All
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: of this during this Middle Eastern tensions. You've got the
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Chinese jumping in on this. The government has told the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: country to get its oil refiners on the move to
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: suspend exports of diesel and gasers. So they're basically a
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: horde around crude oil at least until this is dealt
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: with and I want to play a clip because this
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: will get into some more detail on where this could
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: go in terms of an effect on the stock market.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to get a lot worse for
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: stock markets before the weekend. I'm not a geopolitical expert,
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: so I'm pretty simple about this. The three main protagonists,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: the US, Iran, and Israel, have all been consistent that
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: they are planning to keep on attacking for some time.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: The US and Iran have both denied that there are
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: any talks going between them, whether they want any talks,
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: and Israel has never wanted any negotiations either, so there
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: are no negotiations happening and all are planning to continue conflict. Now.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: No things can change quickly, but I think assuming the
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: conflict might end quickly is just I don't know where
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: that's based on. Just doesn't seem to be any evidence
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: at all for that.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: This could get into a snowball, guys, and this is
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: how a lot of these major conflicts go further and
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: further and further as we start to edge forward. I
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: just I'm a little bit leery of how this plays out.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: You look at right now, the impact on Americans and
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: we're already seeing very extensive issues taking place. A record
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: number of American workers now are pulling money out of
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: their four to one case just to cover financial emergencies.
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  Speaker 1: This is not a good thing when you have US
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: citizens who are already dealing with high inflation, dealing with
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: job loss, and now we've got a war that possibly
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: is going to inject more price increases in the American
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: economy in one of the biggest areas, and that, of
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: course is going to be gas prices. Trump has been
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: scouting gas prices going down forever. Well, that just changed.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: I want to go to another clip. This is Bloomberg,
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  Speaker 1: and there are a set seeing how the Fed is
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: going to react. Take a look.
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: So I think the question is obviously, when Russia invaded Ukraine,
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: it's sent a commodity shock wave all around the world.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: And I was on that go back a few years.
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: I was on Team Transitory, which said, hey, I think
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: that this inflation that's coming out of the pandemic won't
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: be that bad and will be short lived. Obviously we
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: adjusted that view. That was not the right call, and
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: we adjusted. We raise rates aggressively in part because of
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: that commodity shockwave. That was one of the contributing factors
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: for why inflation got so high. But now if you
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: look fast forward a few years when Hamas attacked Israel,
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: I was ready for a commodity shock wave that didn't come.
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  Speaker 4: And so now the question I think that we are
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: wrestling with and markets are wrestling with, is how long
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: is this going to last? How bad is it going
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  Speaker 4: to get? Is it going to look more like Russia Ukraine?
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  Speaker 4: Or is it going to look more like Hamas attacking
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: Israel and that's going to have effects on monetary policy?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Well, he is right, right, they were wrong around the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: transitory side of inflation, and I don't know if you
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: can really kind of lean on them at this point.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: But the point is is that you look at the
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: length of how long this could last. The US and
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the IRN ceasefire. Right now, if you look at polymarket,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: looks like it's pretty well vetted out through the end
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: of June, possibly end of May. But this is not
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: going away quick and the longer it takes is what
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: we're a week in and we're talking about fifty bill
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: What happens at six weeks, in twelve weeks, in twenty
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: weeks in this is going to get expensive and get
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: expensive fast, especially when you look at the kind of
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: munitions and things that are happened. Politico kind of hits
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: on it right here inside the Trump administration scramble to
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: support its own war. Right now, there's a couple of
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: points to really kind of hit on. Let me zoom
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: in on this for you guys. US Sentcom basically said
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: it's asking the Pentagon to send more military intelligence officers
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: to its headquarters in Tampa. This to support the operations
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: that are happening for at least another one hundred days.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So think about that right there. At least another one
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: hundred days, but likely through September. This would go literally
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: up to the midterms. This is bad, I think for
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the Republicans. It's bad for the administration. I think Trump
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: has got to get some handles on this pretty quickly.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: When you look at West Texas crude right now, thirteen
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: month high inflation about to really run hot. I agree
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: with Ted on this one. This is going to get
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: where it becomes a little bit more nasty, and then
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: you have more pain coming in from the crypto markets,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: and that is now IRS is proposing allowing crypto exchanges
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: to deliver tax forms electronically, meaning everything you're doing over
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: on your crypto exchange basically is automatically sent over to
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: the irs. Interesting stuff out there right now, guys, not
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: a good time. One good news is that Christy no
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: just got fired. She's out, the Christi Noome. And look
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: at this. This was like at a fourteen percent chance
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: just a couple of days ago, and here we are
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: blasting through and she is gone. As you can see
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: right here on NBC, Gnome is considered considering firing art
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: should be Trump is considering firing DHS Secretary Christian Nome,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: meaning she'd done, she's out, and the poly market, I
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: think is on it. Another thing that is good for
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: clarity is this statement right here. This is the pending
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: is the actually've ordered under regulatory review. This just happened
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: on a couple of days ago. And what it does
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: is it gives the Commission this interpretation on application for
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: federal securities law containing crypto assets, certain transactions all on crypto.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: If you look at some of the details of this,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: and I think this is clear, is that the sec
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: isn't waiting for the Clarity Act. They must be fed up.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I agree they're going to introduce token taxonomy that classifies
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: crypto assets under existing securities law. Okay, And if Congress
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: can't pass the market structure, which I I think they will,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I think it's coming through now that GNOME is out
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: of the way, because we won't have a handful of
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: congressman over there holding it hostage due to what's happening
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: over with NOME and ICE. But if Congress can't pass this,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: it would allow the firms to at least register, comply,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: and operate. So there might be a middle ground here
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: if Clarity does not go through. So just be aware. Yes,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: it looks very solid. Trump's behind it now and all that,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: but we're still sitting at seventy one percent. After Donald
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Trump literally throws a gallet down and tells the banks
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: to shut up, and we only go to seventy percent.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Something else is brewing, guys in DC, So keep an
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: eye on it here we go.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: Guys.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Yes, I think you got to be very careful this weekend.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: We could see a very atrocious Friday coming in, so
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: be cautious in the markets. Will continue to report on this.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: The situation is very volatile right now. It's going to
• 12:57
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• 13:06
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