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Jun 12 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260612 The June 12, 2026, Closing Market Report covers recent developments in agricultural markets, regional corporate investments, and long-term weather forecasts. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo notes that wheat and corn surprisingly closed higher despite a bearish USDA WASDE report that lowered the season's average cash price for wheat by 50 cents. Zuzolo attributes underlying market support to strong domestic ethanol and export demand, though he warns that soybeans face downward pressure from competitive South American crops if corn and wheat fail to establish a bottom. In state news, the USDA outlined disaster recovery resources for Illinois farmers recovering from recent tornadoes, and Rural King announced a $75 million investment in a new headquarters in Mattoon, Illinois, which is projected to create 100 local jobs. The broadcast also highlighted an upcoming University of Illinois Extension field day focused on nutrient management. Concluding with an agricultural weather forecast, Eric Snodgrass reports that recent heavy Midwestern rains have restored critical soil moisture, thereby reducing the risk of severe heat in July. Furthermore, Snodgrass highlights NOAA's confirmation of a strong El Nino pattern, which is anticipated to produce a milder, wetter fall and winter that could complicate upcoming harvest and fieldwork schedules. - Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com - WILLAg News Update for June 12, 2026 - Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 12th day of June 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Eric Snodgrass will be here, too, to take a look at the weather forecast. He’s with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 00:30 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo at GlobalCommResearch.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Happy Friday to you, Mike. Mike Zuzolo: I think it’s a happy Friday, Todd. Todd Gleason: It is. You know why it is a happy Friday? Because the weather’s pretty decent today, really very nice, and it’s the end of the week. Mike Zuzolo: My heart goes out to all those people that have had tornadoes in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana over these last couple of three weeks. It’s been a really tough cycle this spring. Todd Gleason: Indeed it has, and hopefully we’ll be done with that kind of weather for a while. Can you take a look back at this week for me in the marketplace? Honestly, it was pretty interesting. Mike Zuzolo: It really was. When you look at the report from USDA and this on-again, off-again US-Iran peace deal, what is astounding to me and the analysis that I do is that soft red winter wheat actually closed higher for the week on Friday. Corn came within half a penny of closing higher on the week when it made its high of around $4.17. That was after filling a weekly chart gap down around $4.08, so we had a very wild swing in Thursday night and Friday’s price action in corn. I think the wheat and corn could have done a lot better had it not been for the 3% correction in the crude oil market. The reason I say that is because it’s familiar territory that you and I cover almost every week, Todd. That crude oil-wheat correlation on a four-week basis is still running amazingly with all these different fundamentals and factors. Those two are still running at a positive 75% relationship. They are still very much in charge of the commodity complex as a whole, and the close this week could have been a lot worse given some of the statistics and fundamentals that USDA threw at us. Todd Gleason: Given the on-again, off-again comments, USDA’s WASDE report dropped the season’s average cash price for wheat by 50 cents, which is a big number. Mike Zuzolo: Big drop, yeah. Todd Gleason: From $6.50 to $6.00. Do you think wheat will continue to move lower, or is the $5.80 level we’re at something you expect they’ll just trade at? Mike Zuzolo: I wouldn’t want the weekly lows to be taken out at this stage going all the way into August. This is because the trade has tried to play—and has so far been successful in playing—this year very much like last year. In corn especially, and to a lesser degree soybeans and wheat, we were able to go lower all the way into the later part of July and early part of August. In fact, December corn has done that the last two years in a row. I think they’re trying to work the fundamentals the same or similarly as last year, and I see that completely wrong and opposite. I will say that with world corn stocks-to-use ratios at a four-year low and soybeans at a four-year high, if wheat is going to go below the $5.85 to $5.70 area, I would suspect it’s going to be a renewed leg to the downside in the soybeans. We did see that cut in old crop soybeans with the exports, but again, that was offset by improved biofuels. That’s where the market sits; we’re in very much equilibrium in the soybeans. Still, I think there are some people out there a little bit nervous about the export front for the US soybean crop. Todd Gleason: I was going to ask why, but clearly because of the export front. How much potential is there for Brazil and Argentina, given the tax situation and the very good crops they’ve had, to be really competitive on the open marketplace? Mike Zuzolo: I think the world ethanol demand is much better, and the US ethanol demand is much better than what USDA is projecting, especially for 2025/2026. We would have looked a lot tighter in ending stocks had they not cut ethanol by the same amount. They are essentially saying we’re going to be up about 2.5% on ethanol crush, yet our exports are up 13% year-to-date. Unleaded gas prices are a dollar higher than a year ago, ethanol is about 80 to 90 cents cheaper than regular unleaded, and ethanol stocks here in this country are near 2026 lows. I continue to think that the South Americans will utilize more domestic corn for energy and livestock, opening up the outside export markets more for soybeans at this stage. Todd Gleason: So you do believe they’ll be competitive on the open marketplace. Does that push soybeans lower? Mike Zuzolo: I think they’re the leader to the downside if the wheat and corn don’t bottom. A 60 to 80 cent move lower would get us back to the 2026 lows. Look at where corn and wheat were before the report; they had already tested those levels. It wouldn’t be surprising to me to see beans play catch-up to the wheat and corn if we are going to go lower. I’m inclined to think the trade has rationed demand too much in practicality, so we need to add premium into this market. That’s why I think it’s so much different than last year at this time. Todd Gleason: Why do you think we may need to add premium to the market? Why would we want to do that? Mike Zuzolo: One reason would be the tight wheat stocks across the Northern Hemisphere. If you look back at the May report, the USDA made a big deal of major exporters around the world having tighter stocks in wheat. As I said, corn stocks-to-use is at a four-year low globally. The third reason would be the ethanol demand and export demand. In practical terms, based on what I’m seeing on a spot corn basis in some parts of the country, we’re a lot tighter than what the balance sheet would suggest. Todd Gleason: I was thinking this market might drift lower unless there is a weather premium put into it by early August, but clearly that’s not what you’re thinking. Mike Zuzolo: That’s exactly right. I think the soybeans are the leader to the downside if the wheat and corn don’t bottom. The big thing with the weather is we don’t have weather issues except for the heat waves they look forward to on the East Coast. Down the road, we’ll be looking at Australia, India, and Southeast Asia if we really do have the Godzilla El Nino. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. Mike Zuzolo: Thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: That’s Mike Zuzolo. He’s with GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. He joined us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. 07:35 USDA Offers Disaster Assistance of Illinois Farmers announce: In today’s agricultural news, following severe storms and tornadoes in Illinois, the United States Department of Agriculture has issued a bulletin outlining available disaster recovery resources for affected agricultural producers. The agency advises farmers to comprehensively document all damages and losses, retain receipts related to cleanup and repairs, contact crop insurance agents promptly, and consult their local USDA service center prior to initiating major recovery operations. A variety of programs are available to assist with livestock and crop losses, farmland rehabilitation, and emergency loans. Producers are directed to farmers.gov for further information and can access specific resources, including the Disaster Assistance Discovery Tool, the Disaster At-A-Glance fact sheet, the Loan Assistance Tool, and natural disasters and crop insurance fact sheets. 08:36 Rural King Breaks Ground on New Headquarters in Mattoon announce: We’ll stay in Illinois for the moment, where officials from Rural King have broken ground on a new headquarters in Mattoon. Abigail Bottar from Illinois Public Media has more on the reinvestment the company is making in its hometown. Abigail Bottar: Rural King was founded in Mattoon in 1960 and has grown to 150 locations in multiple states. The new store support center campus will create 100 new jobs in Mattoon. The $75 million project will house company leadership and will be the new location of the company’s flagship store. The project will also include an event center that will be available for community use. The project has received support from the state’s Economic Development for a Growing Economy tax credit program, and the Illinois Department of Transportation is working with the City of Mattoon to provide grant funding to build access to the new campus. Rural King currently employs 700 people across central Illinois. I’m Abigail Bottar, IPM News. 09:32 June 17 University of Illinois Dudley Smith Farm Field Day announce: And finally, just a quick reminder that June 17th, next Wednesday, University of Illinois Extension will hold another field day. This one is at the Dudley Smith Farm near Pana. Faculty and researchers from the U of I will be on hand to discuss issues surrounding nutrients, including how to handle high fertilizer prices while mitigating nutrient loss. Travis Meteer organizes the event and says the day will be a unique opportunity for the state’s farmers. Travis Meteer: We’re going to do a guided tour. It will be an opportunity for folks to come and actually see the collecting of measures. You’re going to see the behind-the-scenes of the research that happens there, and then just have that opportunity to be face-to-face, one-on-one, boots-to-boots with our researchers and have those conversations firsthand. announce: For more information, search Google for the June 17 Dudley Smith Farm Field Day and Illinois Extension, or visit our website at WILLag.org and look in the calendar of events. You’ll find that on the 17th, next Wednesday. The following Thursday, the 24th of June, you’ll also find the Weed Science Field Day and information on it. Check it all out at WILLag.org. That’s a look at today’s agricultural news. 11:11 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com Todd Gleason: Let’s take some time now to look at the weather forecast. Eric Snodgrass is here from Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. Hi Eric, thanks much for being with us. I don’t know whether you’ve been in your yard yet after last night’s wind and rainfall, but I spent the whole morning cleaning up limbs, and not just small ones. It was interesting. What I want to know is, this rain in June has been really good for our crop. Does it indicate anything going forward, and can you talk to me about what the rainfall has been like across the whole of the Corn Belt? Eric Snodgrass: I will say, Todd, I have a 13-year-old boy at home, so I’ve not been in my yard, but he’s been cleaning it up! Not to make light of last night’s severe weather, it did a lot of damage across the Midwest and across Illinois. We had multiple tornado reports out of this, and we’re still investigating some of the damage across parts of Champaign-Urbana, likely going to be confirmed tornadoes in their development. Andrew Pritchard has been without power since then and used a generator to keep his sump pump running. It was a pretty rough night. We had winds that came across the area at 55 to 75 miles an hour and did a lot of damage. But while that bow echo came through, it put rain down. We have had rain hitting our fields now for better than a week. Some places across the state are picking up several inches of rain. This follows what had been a degradation in the drought monitor across the northern part of the state where it was incredibly dry. We’ve had five rounds of rain in northern Illinois in the last two days. It’s huge. The second part of your question is what I want to focus on. The last few weeks we’ve discussed how important June soil moisture is in predicting July heat. As it stands right now, the soil moisture increases tilt us toward the odds of having less extreme heat in the month of July. It doesn’t mean it won’t get hot at times, but the massive, yield-robbing heat is being reduced by the fact that we’ve built up soil moisture now. Next week’s drought monitor will likely show class improvements because of some recent storms, and we’re not even done. We have more rain coming later this weekend with chances of storms, probably Saturday night into Sunday morning. Enjoy the beautiful weather today; there’s still another chance of storms coming through. Todd Gleason: And next week is cooler than this past week, correct? Eric Snodgrass: It is. In fact, over the next seven days, we’re going to be on average about three and a half degrees cooler than normal. All the heat is going to go into the western states where we’ll be seeing triple-digit heat up through the West Coast. We’re getting the benefit of that northerly flow and some cooler conditions here for a while. The big question we’re going to ask is, can we get that to stick around into the month of July? Todd Gleason: Can we? Eric Snodgrass: Most signs are pointing that way. Most of the signals we use in June to say if July is going to be hot and problematic aren’t there. The North Pacific is warming, we have an El Nino building, and we’ve got adequate soil moisture. Those are the key indicators. Unless the bottom falls out of this and we have a low-probability event taking shape in July to build a big ridge, I don’t see it yet. There’s still more time in June to watch disaster unfold if it will. Todd Gleason: If it unfolds as you’re thinking, June and July look pretty good for the corn crop in particular and gets us through pollination. 93 degrees has been the area we think about; if we’re above that actual air temperature, we have a problem with pollination. And, of course, a rainfall issue, but to this point, sounds pretty decent for that. Is there anything longer-term that we can think about through August and the soybean crop? Eric Snodgrass: Let’s think about overnight low temperatures and also more rain. If we keep it so humid, we will bump up our overnight lows, which can start to stress the crop as well. You get above 73 degrees overnight for several nights in a row, we’ve significantly stressed the crop when it needs to be resting. On top of that, if we continue to stay wetter, we have to start talking about fungal pressures and disease pressure from having a more extended number of hours of leaf wetness. Into August, I don’t think I have a clear picture yet. I need to see where the Bermuda High and the Pacific High develop. If we bake the western United States in July, the likelihood of having problems in August begins to decrease. I will tell you this, though, Todd: given the strength of this El Nino coming in—and NOAA just came out and they’ve got a 100% chance of El Nino all the way through winter, a bold statement—the likelihood of us having a milder but wetter fall is in the cards. That could tighten up our harvest and fall application windows, and it will likely mean a milder but wetter winter. Todd Gleason: Is that the indication of the Godzilla El Nino? I think we’ve been using that term, or super El Nino. Is it duration, strength, or a combination that has caused that term to be passed around? Eric Snodgrass: It’s mainly the strength, not necessarily the duration. This El Nino came on early, and the forecasting supports a high probability of historic temperatures over the equatorial Pacific. NOAA is very structured in how they release these reports, waiting until they get past a well-known spring predictability barrier before making their statements. They’ve now confirmed what all the rest of us have been concerned about: it’s going to be a big El Nino, and it’s going to be a big effect for us come August, September, October, and beyond. Todd Gleason: Yay for all of you, because it’s not 95% confirmed, it’s 100% confirmed! It’s there. It’s big. Thank you much. We’ll talk with you again next week. Eric Snodgrass: Sounds good, Todd. Thank you. Todd Gleason: Eric Snodgrass is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. He joined us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report. It came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online and on-demand at WILLag.org.