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The One MAJOR Midterms Issue that Could Flip the Election on its Head · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  So will prices at the pump be a death blow for Republicans this November,
• 0:04
  or is
• 0:05
  there maybe,
• 0:06
  just maybe,
• 0:07
  a teensy-weensy sliver of hope to turn the situation around?
• 0:10
  We'll get into that.
• 0:11
  Dan Andros is here to show you kind of how to build a,
• 0:14
  to be honest,
• 0:15
  a losing fantasy team in the Senate Fantasy League.
• 0:18
  Uh,
• 0:18
  my team obviously going to win.
• 0:19
  Um,
• 0:19
  and then we'll launch a raid
• 0:22
  on the candidate countdown candidate of the day in Minnesota.
• 0:26
  It's all coming up and more right here on Predictable
• 0:28
  with Stu.
• 0:44
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:46
  Uh,
• 0:46
  go to Senatefantasy.com to get your team in right now.
• 0:49
  You can even beat Dan Andros if you like.
• 0:51
  Uh,
• 0:51
  Senate Fantasy.com,
• 0:52
  totally free to join.
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  Takes like 5 minutes to get your team in.
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  There's
• 0:57
  tons of people joining right now,
• 0:58
  taking their shot at thousands of dollars in actual cash prizes.
• 1:02
  Uh,
• 1:02
  so,
• 1:03
  $0 entry,
• 1:05
  potential
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  of thousands of dollars
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  of exit.
• 1:08
  I can't do better for you than that.
• 1:10
  Go there,
• 1:11
  Senatefantassy.com.
• 1:12
  There's 20 days until the midterm elections,
• 1:14
  and,
• 1:15
  uh,
• 1:15
  early voting is happening now in 20 states.
• 1:17
  Uh,
• 1:18
  we're up to 40% of the union already doing this,
• 1:20
  uh,
• 1:21
  in,
• 1:21
  in early voting.
• 1:22
  And,
• 1:22
  you know,
• 1:23
  you might be looking at this,
• 1:23
  if you're a conservative,
• 1:24
  you might be saying,
• 1:24
  oh gosh,
• 1:25
  is it time to panic yet?
• 1:26
  No.
• 1:27
  Time to panic is Monday.
• 1:29
  Monday's panic day.
• 1:30
  Yes,
• 1:30
  Monday,
• 1:31
  this coming Monday,
• 1:31
  only a few days away.
• 1:32
  Monday,
• 1:32
  October 19th will be panic day.
• 1:34
  We will look at our positions.
• 1:35
  We will say,
• 1:36
  should we be resizing these?
• 1:37
  There's been a lot of things we didn't expect to happen.
• 1:39
  Can we adjust?
• 1:40
  Should we adjust what is happening
• 1:42
  panic day,
• 1:43
  Monday,
• 1:43
  October 19th,
• 1:44
  right around the corner.
• 1:45
  And
• 1:46
  we did get some inflation news today.
• 1:48
  Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually on in September
• 1:52
  as gas prices
• 1:54
  skyrocketed.
• 1:55
  That's obviously the biggest factor
• 1:57
  in there.
• 1:58
  Trump is trying to push back against this narrative.
• 2:00
  Uh,
• 2:01
  he's pushed
• 2:02
  a,
• 2:02
  uh,
• 2:02
  Russian diesel,
• 2:03
  uh,
• 2:03
  deal together,
• 2:05
  uh,
• 2:05
  that draws,
• 2:05
  uh,
• 2:05
  pushback and skepticism,
• 2:07
  according to the Wall Street Journal.
• 2:09
  Um,
• 2:09
  that is going on as well.
• 2:11
  Lots of,
• 2:11
  of,
• 2:11
  of information,
• 2:12
  uh,
• 2:12
  going on when it comes to energy markets,
• 2:14
  and that's been the biggest thing.
• 2:15
  Let's be honest about it.
• 2:17
  By far the biggest factor right now,
• 2:19
  are these gas prices when it comes to economic trends.
• 2:22
  Um,
• 2:22
  I,
• 2:23
  I wanna go through some of this though,
• 2:24
  because I think.
• 2:26
  There's something about gas prices.
• 2:28
  Rush Limbaugh used to say this back in the day,
• 2:30
  uh,
• 2:30
  when he hosted a show,
• 2:32
  uh,
• 2:32
  about how gas prices were the most important metric leading into an election.
• 2:36
  Why?
• 2:36
  Because there was an advertise for them,
• 2:38
  an advertisement for them on every corner.
• 2:40
  Every corner you go around,
• 2:41
  there'd be a big number
• 2:42
  in your face showing you exactly what the gas prices were.
• 2:45
  When they were high,
• 2:46
  you noticed them
• 2:46
  all the time.
• 2:47
  Obviously,
• 2:48
  you probably drive,
• 2:49
  and if you're one of,
• 2:49
  I don't know,
• 2:50
  what is it?
• 2:51
  Probably 90%,
• 2:51
  95% of people
• 2:53
  drive a car that takes gasoline.
• 2:55
  Uh,
• 2:55
  you're in a position where you're dealing with those on a day to day basis.
• 2:58
  The one thing I would,
• 2:59
  I would add to Russia's analysis,
• 3:01
  which is very,
• 3:01
  very smart,
• 3:03
  is the fact that people tend to have a generally speaking,
• 3:07
  short-term memory
• 3:08
  when it comes to gas prices.
• 3:11
  Gas prices shoot up,
• 3:12
  people are really pissed off about it,
• 3:13
  but when they come down,
• 3:14
  they kind of quickly forget,
• 3:16
  and they kind of quickly adjust to new norms.
• 3:19
  I was talking to someone the other day,
• 3:20
  like,
• 3:21
  gosh,
• 3:21
  I
• 3:21
  You know,
• 3:22
  it was,
• 3:22
  uh,
• 3:22
  paying $4 a gallon of gas,
• 3:23
  and it was,
• 3:24
  you know,
• 3:24
  uh,
• 3:25
  it came out of nowhere.
• 3:26
  It shocks you.
• 3:27
  And when it comes down,
• 3:29
  you tend to say,
• 3:30
  oh gosh,
• 3:30
  at least I'm not paying $4 a gallon.
• 3:32
  Your new normal kind of sets in relatively quickly when it comes to gas prices.
• 3:35
  So these things can change.
• 3:36
  Now,
• 3:37
  we're really close to the election.
• 3:38
  As I mentioned,
• 3:39
  we're 20 days out.
• 3:40
  It's really hard to change these narratives
• 3:42
  right now.
• 3:43
  And there's no policy really that's gonna do it outside of,
• 3:46
  I don't,
• 3:47
  man,
• 3:47
  I don't know.
• 3:48
  Maybe like Iran is like,
• 3:49
  you know what,
• 3:50
  we're just going to just
• 3:51
  upend our government and put in a constitutional republic
• 3:55
  and everything's gonna be fine and no more war.
• 3:56
  I,
• 3:57
  I mean,
• 3:57
  something like that could theoretically happen,
• 3:59
  but,
• 3:59
  uh,
• 3:59
  very,
• 3:59
  very unlikely with a couple of weeks left in the election.
• 4:02
  So.
• 4:02
  But let me show you what is developing on,
• 4:05
  when it comes to,
• 4:05
  uh,
• 4:06
  gas prices.
• 4:06
  And by the way,
• 4:07
  if you,
• 4:07
  uh,
• 4:08
  maybe you're a listener to Stu Does America,
• 4:10
  by the way,
• 4:10
  I should tell you,
• 4:11
  we have Stu and Dave Do America,
• 4:12
  a great show as well on Blaze TV.
• 4:14
  Uh,
• 4:14
  but Stu Does America,
• 4:15
  we did often the Chartapalooza.
• 4:17
  Uh,
• 4:17
  yes,
• 4:17
  Chartapalooza episode here for you today unpredictable.
• 4:20
  Let me start you with the,
• 4:21
  uh,
• 4:21
  gasoline price chart.
• 4:23
  This comes to us from,
• 4:24
  uh,
• 4:24
  Trading Economics,
• 4:25
  a website.
• 4:26
  Has some nice charts for you if you like them.
• 4:28
  Uh,
• 4:28
  if you're a chart guy.
• 4:29
  And let's go back to,
• 4:30
  uh,
• 4:31
  zoom out a little bit here,
• 4:32
  uh,
• 4:32
  Adam,
• 4:33
  go to,
• 4:33
  um,
• 4:34
  let me go to like a five-year chart,
• 4:35
  just to give you a kind of quick view of what
• 4:37
  gas prices have looked like over the last five years.
• 4:39
  You see there's massive,
• 4:40
  uh,
• 4:41
  uh,
• 4:41
  a massive spike back in,
• 4:43
  uh,
• 4:43
  2022
• 4:44
  during Biden,
• 4:45
  much higher,
• 4:46
  uh,
• 4:46
  than what we're,
• 4:47
  uh,
• 4:47
  dealing with today.
• 4:48
  Uh,
• 4:48
  they slowly came down over the end of Biden's presidency,
• 4:51
  you know,
• 4:51
  ups and downs as always with these graphs.
• 4:53
  And if you go to,
• 4:54
  uh,
• 4:55
  let's go to,
• 4:55
  um,
• 4:57
  January 2025.
• 4:58
  So give me,
• 4:59
  I don't know if you can kind of
• 5:00
  get in that general vicinity and see where we were.
• 5:02
  Uh,
• 5:03
  there's January 2025.
• 5:03
  Look,
• 5:04
  what are the prices we're looking at?
• 5:04
  They're about $2 a gallon
• 5:06
  in January 2025.
• 5:08
  And that keeps going down.
• 5:09
  Look at,
• 5:10
  just go down to the,
• 5:11
  the bottom there,
• 5:11
  which is the beginning,
• 5:12
  I think of 2026 there,
• 5:14
  January,
• 5:15
  uh,
• 5:15
  end of December
• 5:16
  2025,
• 5:17
  beginning of January 26th.
• 5:18
  Average price per gallon,
• 5:20
  $1.70.
• 5:23
  Now that seems like,
• 5:24
  and when I talk about short-term memory,
• 5:25
  that seems like a zillion years ago.
• 5:28
  That was basically this year.
• 5:31
  Basically this year.
• 5:34
  Now,
• 5:35
  that is,
• 5:35
  I would argue,
• 5:37
  basically what
• 5:38
  the president promised,
• 5:39
  right?
• 5:39
  We'll be aggressive with energy,
• 5:40
  we will lower prices,
• 5:41
  we will not,
• 5:42
  you know,
• 5:42
  have all the environmental hang-ups,
• 5:44
  and so prices will go down,
• 5:45
  and they did.
• 5:45
  But of course,
• 5:46
  on the other side of that,
• 5:47
  as we all know,
• 5:48
  what's coming is the big increase right around the corner,
• 5:51
  is the Iran war,
• 5:52
  where it shoots all the way up to the peak there of about 370 per gallon.
• 5:56
  And then it drops down to,
• 5:58
  uh,
• 5:58
  kind of comes off those heights and goes down to a,
• 6:01
  a bottom there of 282.
• 6:02
  Can we stop there for a second?
• 6:03
  This is June 22nd.
• 6:06
  There's nothing that pisses me off
• 6:08
  more
• 6:08
  right now than this exact moment in our history.
• 6:11
  June 22,
• 6:12
  2026.
• 6:13
  Why?
• 6:14
  This is the moment
• 6:16
  we're getting out of the primaries,
• 6:17
  and we're starting to look towards the primary,
• 6:19
  the elections.
• 6:19
  And in this moment,
• 6:21
  the war has already started.
• 6:23
  We are way,
• 6:24
  way off
• 6:25
  our all-time highs after the war.
• 6:28
  What typically would happen in a war,
• 6:29
  you have a,
• 6:30
  a,
• 6:30
  a,
• 6:30
  a gas price shock,
• 6:31
  right?
• 6:33
  And then,
• 6:34
  we,
• 6:35
  uh,
• 6:35
  you learn to,
• 6:36
  uh,
• 6:38
  adjust,
• 6:39
  uh,
• 6:39
  that with that,
• 6:40
  right?
• 6:40
  People start rerouting the gasoline prices
• 6:43
  and everything else.
• 6:44
  Um.
• 6:47
  If
• 6:49
  I can't even,
• 6:49
  you can come back to me here for a second,
• 6:50
  guys.
• 6:51
  Um,
• 6:51
  I,
• 6:51
  I,
• 6:51
  I can't
• 6:52
  tell you how frustrating it is because that's when,
• 6:54
  that's the point I'm putting in a lot of my positions for the election.
• 6:57
  And I'm pretty comfortable with where I am in this election.
• 7:00
  We will find out how,
• 7:01
  how comfortable I am on panic day.
• 7:02
  I'm gonna have a lot of analysis to do this weekend to get ready for it.
• 7:05
  Um,
• 7:05
  but like a lot of these
• 7:07
  these positions that I would be really,
• 7:09
  really,
• 7:09
  really happy with were based on,
• 7:11
  OK,
• 7:11
  we came off the peak,
• 7:13
  and it's coming back down.
• 7:14
  And there's no reason for it to go back up again,
• 7:17
  right?
• 7:17
  We've already started to adjust our oil's being rerouted,
• 7:20
  all these other things.
• 7:21
  And that's where I was and made those decisions there.
• 7:23
  I,
• 7:23
  I will say I didn't see another new peak after that.
• 7:26
  And if you go back to the chart,
• 7:27
  you can see that peak come in.
• 7:29
  The peak does hit,
• 7:31
  uh,
• 7:31
  and like,
• 7:31
  you know,
• 7:31
  it rhymes back up and kind of bumps up and down.
• 7:34
  Keep going,
• 7:34
  keep going,
• 7:35
  keep going to that highest next peak right there,
• 7:37
  which is
• 7:37
  now September 14th.
• 7:39
  September 14th is at 352 a gallon.
• 7:41
  It's lower than the Biden,
• 7:42
  uh,
• 7:42
  peak.
• 7:43
  It's lower than the previous Trump peak.
• 7:46
  But it is a peak of most recent memory.
• 7:48
  That is about a month ago,
• 7:50
  OK?
• 7:50
  And we're all sitting around,
• 7:51
  it's at 352 a gallon.
• 7:54
  Since then though,
• 7:54
  we have had a drop off.
• 7:55
  Go into the last like a month or so here,
• 7:58
  Adam,
• 7:58
  uh,
• 7:58
  in this chart if we could.
• 8:00
  Uh,
• 8:00
  last month,
• 8:01
  um,
• 8:02
  I don't know if you can zoom into the month,
• 8:03
  it might be easier for all of us to,
• 8:05
  uh,
• 8:05
  to see if you click that little fancy button over there.
• 8:08
  There we go.
• 8:08
  So last month,
• 8:09
  you see,
• 8:09
  it goes up to about 360,
• 8:11
  almost over,
• 8:11
  so 360,
• 8:12
  but it's now down to 325.
• 8:15
  So we've knocked off about 30,
• 8:16
  40 cents from those peaks.
• 8:19
  We're not seeing a precipitous drop,
• 8:21
  but we are seeing a drop
• 8:22
  in in about the last month or so.
• 8:25
  Now,
• 8:26
  uh,
• 8:26
  let me look at the Calci market on gas prices.
• 8:28
  You'll see kind of a similar thing.
• 8:30
  What are people believing the gas prices are going to be?
• 8:32
  Uh,
• 8:33
  you'll see,
• 8:33
  uh,
• 8:33
  a similar type of drop in this particular,
• 8:36
  uh,
• 8:36
  chart.
• 8:37
  Uh,
• 8:38
  there you go.
• 8:38
  Uh,
• 8:39
  what are the gas prices gonna be?
• 8:40
  You know,
• 8:40
  you see it going down,
• 8:40
  they think it's gonna be around 433,
• 8:43
  uh,
• 8:43
  per,
• 8:43
  per gallon.
• 8:44
  And again,
• 8:44
  these are different measures,
• 8:45
  as,
• 8:45
  as of course,
• 8:46
  you know.
• 8:46
  Now,
• 8:48
  Question is,
• 8:48
  is it possible
• 8:49
  for gas prices to continue to drop over the next 3 weeks?
• 8:53
  Let's just say they continue the rate that they're at over the,
• 8:55
  they're doing what they did in the last month over the next,
• 8:57
  uh,
• 8:58
  uh,
• 8:58
  next few
• 8:59
  weeks.
• 9:01
  Probably puts you south overall
• 9:03
  of $3 a gallon
• 9:05
  on that particular price measure.
• 9:08
  Do,
• 9:09
  you know,
• 9:09
  if,
• 9:09
  you know,
• 9:09
  that 433 gallon that you saw there probably is more like 350,
• 9:13
  360.
• 9:15
  That's gonna feel like relief to a lot of people.
• 9:17
  And,
• 9:18
  and again,
• 9:18
  we're not looking about trying to convince 20% of the population here.
• 9:22
  You're looking about
• 9:23
  1 or 2%.
• 9:25
  Are 1 or 2% of this possible that 1 or 1 to 2% of those people who are thinking right now,
• 9:29
  gosh,
• 9:29
  I'm gonna go towards the left,
• 9:31
  see a drop price and say,
• 9:32
  OK,
• 9:33
  maybe it was temporary.
• 9:34
  I don't want to overreact about this.
• 9:35
  I'm gonna come back home
• 9:37
  if they happen to be either Republican
• 9:38
  voters or independent voters that lean Republican.
• 9:41
  Could be enough in some of these key races.
• 9:43
  You see the same type of thing happening with diesel fuel.
• 9:46
  Um,
• 9:47
  diesel fuel is,
• 9:48
  this is the business insider version of this chart.
• 9:50
  You see a big peak,
• 9:51
  uh,
• 9:51
  here,
• 9:52
  not that long ago.
• 9:53
  Uh,
• 9:53
  what was that peak like,
• 9:54
  uh,
• 9:55
  Adam,
• 9:55
  what,
• 9:55
  what date was that?
• 9:56
  Uh,
• 9:56
  yeah,
• 9:56
  about a month ago.
• 9:58
  We're down from 283 in this measure to today.
• 10:02
  The price is uh 254.
• 10:05
  So 283 to 254.
• 10:07
  Again,
• 10:07
  these are high prices
• 10:08
  historically.
• 10:09
  If we zoom back out to the max here,
• 10:11
  you can see they're way,
• 10:12
  way,
• 10:12
  way up from
• 10:13
  what we've seen,
• 10:14
  uh,
• 10:14
  you know,
• 10:15
  recently
• 10:16
  on these charts.
• 10:16
  I mean,
• 10:17
  look,
• 10:17
  this is,
• 10:17
  these are peaks.
• 10:18
  But we are way off the ultimate peak,
• 10:21
  uh,
• 10:21
  that was relatively recent and fast dropping prices do.
• 10:25
  Tend to give people a little bit of amnesia,
• 10:27
  which is,
• 10:28
  I think what,
• 10:28
  of course,
• 10:29
  the Republicans and presidents are,
• 10:30
  would be looking for.
• 10:31
  Um,
• 10:32
  heating oil is another one.
• 10:33
  This is gonna hit up in the Northeast very,
• 10:35
  very soon.
• 10:35
  It's gonna get very cold.
• 10:36
  Um,
• 10:37
  and when that happens,
• 10:38
  people need their heating oil.
• 10:39
  Uh,
• 10:39
  the same type of thing is we're,
• 10:41
  we,
• 10:41
  we are seeing,
• 10:41
  oh,
• 10:41
  we're off of that,
• 10:42
  we're a little bit higher,
• 10:43
  and you expect a little bit of a rise here,
• 10:45
  of course,
• 10:46
  as you get into colder season,
• 10:47
  but
• 10:47
  we are off the peak there,
• 10:48
  at least a little bit.
• 10:49
  OK.
• 10:50
  I wanna move on to,
• 10:51
  uh,
• 10:52
  inflation because that's another big part of this.
• 10:54
  And I wanna put this in perspective for you because
• 10:56
  there is a lot of uh doomerism about inflation,
• 10:59
  but I,
• 11:00
  I really wanna put this in context.
• 11:01
  I,
• 11:01
  I think it's important for you to understand and
• 11:03
  maybe you can share this with your friends,
• 11:05
  uh,
• 11:05
  understand exactly
• 11:07
  how we got here.
• 11:08
  Do we have the next chart?
• 11:09
  This is a chart that we,
• 11:10
  we'll put this up on predictableShow.com so you can,
• 11:12
  you can have it.
• 11:13
  Maybe we can even put it up as an interactive.
• 11:15
  This is putting in uh inflation into context.
• 11:18
  And the way I built this was,
• 11:20
  uh,
• 11:21
  let's say,
• 11:22
  and,
• 11:22
  you know,
• 11:22
  Biden takes the presidency,
• 11:23
  you're spending $100 on something.
• 11:25
  What does that thing cost today?
• 11:26
  That's the easiest way to understand that we're using inflation.
• 11:29
  So,
• 11:29
  give it,
• 11:30
  give me number one here,
• 11:31
  Adam.
• 11:31
  This will draw in the inflation line from the beginning.
• 11:33
  And you see,
• 11:34
  obviously,
• 11:34
  we are up,
• 11:35
  right?
• 11:35
  You can see
• 11:36
  very clearly that
• 11:38
  something that took $100 at the beginning of the Biden presidency
• 11:41
  now is $128.80
• 11:44
  as of today.
• 11:46
  And that is a lot more,
• 11:47
  and that's a big reason why people feel pain.
• 11:49
  They feel like prices are really,
• 11:51
  really high,
• 11:51
  and that's understandable and true.
• 11:53
  However,
• 11:53
  it's important to understand how that happened.
• 11:56
  It is crucial to understand
• 11:57
  how that happened.
• 11:59
  We all expect,
• 12:00
  you know,
• 12:00
  let's say about a 3%,
• 12:02
  uh,
• 12:03
  increase in in in inflation every year,
• 12:05
  to give a,
• 12:06
  you know,
• 12:06
  sort of a baseline number.
• 12:08
  But as we all might remember if we really think about it,
• 12:11
  that's not at all what we saw in the 1st 18 months of Joe Biden.
• 12:14
  He's turning on the COVID faucets,
• 12:16
  they're spending all over the place,
• 12:17
  we're putting trillions of dollars into the economy,
• 12:20
  and we are paying a price for that today.
• 12:21
  So look at the Biden surge,
• 12:22
  it's number 2,
• 12:24
  the 1st 18 months of the Biden presidency,
• 12:26
  and you see that line draw in,
• 12:28
  uh,
• 12:29
  that is 9.2%
• 12:31
  per year.
• 12:32
  9.2% per year in the 1st 18 months,
• 12:35
  that's the ratio.
• 12:36
  For the Biden inflation.
• 12:37
  And you might think,
• 12:38
  well,
• 12:38
  OK,
• 12:38
  what,
• 12:38
  what's happened after that?
• 12:40
  Remember what I was talking about,
• 12:41
  3% is about what you expect
• 12:43
  for inflation.
• 12:44
  If you bring in a line number 3 here,
• 12:45
  Adam,
• 12:46
  you will see
• 12:47
  what the chart has looked like for ever since that 1st 18 months,
• 12:51
  and that chart is 3.1% per year.
• 12:55
  We got massive inflation.
• 12:57
  We built these prices way,
• 12:59
  way up,
• 12:59
  9.2% per year,
• 13:01
  and everything after that
• 13:03
  has honestly been pretty unremarkable.
• 13:06
  We're at about a 3% inflation rate
• 13:09
  from,
• 13:09
  uh,
• 13:10
  June 2022
• 13:12
  to today.
• 13:14
  We had 9.2% that 1st 18 months,
• 13:17
  but only 3.1% per year since.
• 13:20
  3.1% is almost exactly what you'd expect.
• 13:23
  I wanna give you another way of looking at this chart.
• 13:26
  Take a 2 and 3 off and,
• 13:27
  and,
• 13:27
  uh,
• 13:27
  and I wanna bring in 4 here in a second.
• 13:29
  This is just a linear line from the very beginning.
• 13:32
  Of,
• 13:33
  uh,
• 13:33
  the Biden presidency to where we are today.
• 13:36
  And I'm drawing this line across here for,
• 13:38
  for,
• 13:38
  uh,
• 13:38
  podcast listeners.
• 13:40
  It's just basically a straight line from beginning to end.
• 13:42
  So give me number 4.
• 13:43
  you,
• 13:44
  you see how this dries,
• 13:45
  it draws in.
• 13:48
  That would be if,
• 13:49
  uh,
• 13:49
  if we went an exact straight line from
• 13:51
  the beginning of the Biden presidency to today.
• 13:53
  What you see
• 13:55
  is
• 13:56
  all that gain on inflation above normal
• 14:00
  is all happening
• 14:01
  in the Biden presidency.
• 14:04
  All of it.
• 14:05
  It's all occurring in the Biden presidency.
• 14:08
  And we come back to basically on that line,
• 14:10
  there's ups and downs here,
• 14:11
  and honestly,
• 14:11
  Trump would have been doing much better than this line had he not done the Iran war.
• 14:15
  I mean,
• 14:15
  you can take him to account for that if you'd like.
• 14:17
  But
• 14:18
  generally speaking,
• 14:18
  you look at this and
• 14:20
  we are
• 14:20
  where we should be in the Trump presidency,
• 14:22
  where we had the gains were all
• 14:25
  in the Biden years.
• 14:25
  You can see that quite clearly
• 14:27
  in this chart.
• 14:28
  OK,
• 14:28
  you can take off 4 for a second.
• 14:29
  I want to explain what I'm doing with,
• 14:30
  uh,
• 14:30
  the 5.
• 14:32
  No one can expect zero inflation,
• 14:34
  OK?
• 14:34
  No president should be held to the account of having zero inflation,
• 14:37
  of course.
• 14:39
  And
• 14:39
  I wanted to kind of test what this would look like if Biden had just done a normal job.
• 14:44
  Like,
• 14:44
  so let's say there was only 3% per year
• 14:47
  during the Biden presidency,
• 14:49
  what would that chart look like?
• 14:51
  And again,
• 14:51
  we'll put this up at predictableShow.com.
• 14:53
  That's number 5,
• 14:54
  Adam.
• 14:54
  Look at when this draws in,
• 14:55
  you see the difference.
• 14:57
  I left Trump exactly
• 14:58
  with his real numbers.
• 14:59
  This is what Trump has actually done.
• 15:01
  But the Biden numbers,
• 15:03
  he's so far above 3% for his presidency,
• 15:07
  that it winds up creating a massive gap
• 15:10
  between the prices you feel you should be paying,
• 15:13
  and the prices
• 15:14
  that you are paying.
• 15:16
  Prices now are 7.9% higher
• 15:19
  than what they should have been if Biden was basically average.
• 15:23
  That's the pain you're feeling.
• 15:26
  That's what you're feeling on a day to day basis.
• 15:28
  When you're thinking like,
• 15:29
  this doesn't feel like 2 or 3% uh inflation,
• 15:31
  it feels like 8%.
• 15:32
  That's the gap you're feeling.
• 15:34
  The feeling all comes
• 15:36
  from that 2021,
• 15:38
  uh,
• 15:38
  into 2022 period,
• 15:40
  where we were just absolutely
• 15:43
  blowing it out like we were at a freaking nightclub,
• 15:47
  spending money like crazy.
• 15:48
  And we got to a point where we had 9% per year inflation
• 15:52
  for a year and a half.
• 15:53
  That's the difference.
• 15:55
  That's the difference you'll also note from,
• 15:56
  uh,
• 15:57
  your,
• 15:57
  uh,
• 15:57
  your housing prices,
• 15:58
  you,
• 15:59
  when you had those rates shoot up,
• 16:00
  they haven't come back down yet.
• 16:02
  They all shot up in that period.
• 16:04
  All of this comes together to tell you a different picture.
• 16:07
  And I think it's something that maybe,
• 16:08
  you know,
• 16:08
  it's important to show to,
• 16:10
  uh,
• 16:10
  your,
• 16:10
  your friends.
• 16:13
  You can
• 16:14
  definitely question,
• 16:15
  and I have,
• 16:15
  uh,
• 16:15
  many,
• 16:16
  many times,
• 16:16
  uh,
• 16:16
  some of the decisions Donald Trump has made.
• 16:18
  I,
• 16:18
  you know,
• 16:19
  I,
• 16:19
  uh,
• 16:19
  Iran's the obvious one that a lot of people talk about,
• 16:22
  but,
• 16:22
  you know,
• 16:22
  I'm,
• 16:22
  I,
• 16:23
  I'm not a tariff guy at all.
• 16:25
  I don't think that was a good decision,
• 16:26
  and I'm,
• 16:26
  I'm never gonna agree with those policies.
• 16:29
  There's a lot of different things you can question
• 16:31
  about Trump's time in office,
• 16:32
  but it is important to understand if you're kind of in that place where you feel like,
• 16:35
  gosh,
• 16:36
  prices are out of control and Trump's,
• 16:37
  Trump's done nothing,
• 16:38
  uh,
• 16:38
  to,
• 16:38
  to do anything about that.
• 16:40
  Uh,
• 16:40
  I,
• 16:41
  I mean,
• 16:41
  uh,
• 16:42
  the,
• 16:42
  what you're feeling is not from Donald Trump.
• 16:44
  That is a Biden problem,
• 16:45
  an,
• 16:46
  an archive
• 16:48
  of,
• 16:48
  of Joe Biden
• 16:50
  rising those prices back in early 2021 and 20202.
• 16:52
  And if you want to even be nice to Joe Biden,
• 16:54
  who's an old,
• 16:55
  uh,
• 16:55
  uh,
• 16:56
  what would they,
• 16:56
  what do they call him in the,
• 16:57
  uh,
• 16:57
  deposition,
• 16:58
  a kindly old gentleman,
• 16:59
  uh,
• 16:59
  with a poor memory,
• 17:01
  um,
• 17:02
  you know,
• 17:02
  COVID,
• 17:03
  right?
• 17:03
  COVID,
• 17:03
  like,
• 17:03
  take it out,
• 17:04
  take it out of Biden if you want.
• 17:05
  If you don't want,
• 17:05
  if you want to make this nonpartisan,
• 17:06
  that's totally fine with me.
• 17:08
  COVID was a unique freaking thing.
• 17:11
  It really changed our country,
• 17:12
  it really changed our economy,
• 17:14
  and to understand where we are when it comes to housing prices,
• 17:18
  when it comes to uh inflation,
• 17:20
  you have to take that period into account and understand
• 17:23
  what has happened
• 17:24
  since.
• 17:25
  There's a lot of policies I disagree with.
• 17:27
  I hate our spending policies in this country,
• 17:29
  uh,
• 17:29
  both sides suck at that.
• 17:31
  Uh,
• 17:31
  there's a lot of different things that I can't stand that are going on,
• 17:34
  but it is important to understand the context of it.
• 17:36
  Uh,
• 17:36
  so that we can look at this election and,
• 17:38
  and see,
• 17:39
  you know,
• 17:39
  if you're,
• 17:39
  if you're looking to convince your friends that might be,
• 17:42
  uh,
• 17:42
  you know,
• 17:42
  a piece of data that you want to dive into.
• 17:45
  Uh,
• 17:45
  but also just to understand,
• 17:46
  you know,
• 17:46
  if,
• 17:47
  if we have a,
• 17:48
  a,
• 17:48
  a break in gas prices,
• 17:51
  we could see enough
• 17:53
  of a,
• 17:54
  uh,
• 17:54
  a tinge in the,
• 17:55
  uh,
• 17:55
  in,
• 17:56
  in the,
• 17:56
  the fringes of this election.
• 17:58
  And if that happens,
• 17:59
  it's very possible
• 18:01
  that
• 18:02
  instead of seeing the massive blue tsunami that we see.
• 18:05
  Uh,
• 18:05
  we might see something less.
• 18:06
  This,
• 18:07
  I don't,
• 18:07
  I'll be honest with you,
• 18:08
  I don't think this saves the house.
• 18:09
  Uh,
• 18:09
  if the,
• 18:10
  if gas prices come down,
• 18:11
  I still think Republicans will lose the House.
• 18:13
  The Senate,
• 18:14
  maybe they have a better shot on.
• 18:15
  A lot of people are looking for positive news for Republicans.
• 18:18
  A lot of people are looking,
• 18:19
  looking for positive news for Democrats.
• 18:21
  I do think that,
• 18:22
  you know,
• 18:23
  the next couple of weeks can still have an impact
• 18:25
  on what level of wave we see.
• 18:28
  Is it a ripple?
• 18:29
  Is it a tsunami?
• 18:30
  It could be anything from there and in between.
• 18:34
  The question is where,
• 18:35
  uh,
• 18:36
  where does this fall?
• 18:37
  And,
• 18:37
  uh,
• 18:38
  you know,
• 18:38
  knowing the
• 18:39
  the context of the data and understanding where the data is moving is really,
• 18:42
  really important,
• 18:43
  especially as you go into these election markets.
• 18:45
  We're gonna talk more
• 18:46
  about those
• 18:47
  here in just a second.
• 18:47
  We're gonna go through some of the Senate stuff with Dan Andros.
• 18:50
  We've also got a candidate of the day coming up and so much more
• 18:52
  right here on Predictable
• 18:54
  with Stu.
• 18:54
  PredictableShow.com.
• 19:14
  I want to bring in,
• 19:15
  uh,
• 19:15
  Dan Andros.
• 19:16
  Uh,
• 19:17
  he's a friend of the program and fantasy sports expert.
• 19:20
  Uh,
• 19:21
  Dan,
• 19:21
  how many championships have you won in our
• 19:23
  main fantasy Football league over the past,
• 19:25
  let's say 10 years?
• 19:27
  Well,
• 19:27
  we've been doing that league for I think 21 years now and um I've won one.
• 19:32
  When,
• 19:32
  when,
• 19:33
  when,
• 19:33
  what year was that,
• 19:34
  would you say?
• 19:34
  I am,
• 19:35
  that was the first year.
• 19:37
  Um,
• 19:38
  it's been a long suffering existence ever since then of
• 19:42
  several finals appearances and a lot of second places.
• 19:45
  I've got a handful of those,
• 19:46
  but,
• 19:46
  uh,
• 19:47
  just can't.
• 19:48
  Listen,
• 19:49
  uh,
• 19:49
  you're bringing up,
• 19:49
  you're triggering me here,
• 19:50
  Stu.
• 19:51
  I'm automatically thinking of the one point loss
• 19:53
  when Justin Jefferson could only get 2 points,
• 19:55
  2 points,
• 19:56
  and I lost a championship because of that.
• 19:58
  Uh,
• 19:59
  there's been several of those stories in your life.
• 20:01
  Uh,
• 20:02
  I'm definitely an expert in all the ways to lose.
• 20:04
  There's also a,
• 20:04
  wasn't there also a COVID injury,
• 20:06
  or no,
• 20:06
  it was the DeMar Hamlin,
• 20:08
  uh,
• 20:09
  injury,
• 20:09
  wasn't that?
• 20:10
  Didn't that cost you a championship?
• 20:12
  It did.
• 20:12
  We had to,
• 20:13
  uh,
• 20:13
  we had to go ahead and figure out what to do because that game got canceled and I,
• 20:17
  and we literally had one player,
• 20:19
  my player left in that game,
• 20:21
  and so we had to figure out something else to do,
• 20:24
  and it didn't work out for me or whatever we came up with.
• 20:26
  No,
• 20:27
  I,
• 20:27
  and I think,
• 20:28
  well,
• 20:28
  uh,
• 20:29
  it's been a tough road there,
• 20:30
  but uh,
• 20:30
  we do know that you're going to do much,
• 20:32
  much better,
• 20:33
  uh,
• 20:33
  here in the Senate Fantasy League,
• 20:35
  um.
• 20:36
  That is up,
• 20:36
  by the way,
• 20:37
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 20:38
  Go there,
• 20:39
  get your team registered.
• 20:40
  Uh,
• 20:40
  I did confirm,
• 20:41
  Dan,
• 20:42
  last night
• 20:43
  that there was a team named ZB Cards in the,
• 20:45
  uh,
• 20:47
  you saw that
• 20:48
  in the lineup,
• 20:49
  and I,
• 20:49
  I,
• 20:50
  that suspiciously sounded like the name my son uses when he does his,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:54
  sports card trading.
• 20:56
  Online
• 20:57
  and I did realize that yes,
• 20:58
  I have confirmed that.
• 20:59
  My son is in the fantasy league now.
• 21:02
  You're supposed to be 18 and older.
• 21:03
  He is not,
• 21:04
  but he's also not eligible for any prizes.
• 21:06
  So I think it's OK.
• 21:07
  Yeah,
• 21:07
  I think,
• 21:08
  I think we can let it slide.
• 21:09
  Yeah.
• 21:09
  Although he was saying that if,
• 21:11
  uh,
• 21:11
  he knows he can't get the prizes through the game,
• 21:13
  but he was saying if he does win,
• 21:15
  I should buy him something.
• 21:16
  So I don't know how,
• 21:17
  I mean,
• 21:17
  it kind of does seem fair in a way,
• 21:19
  but also I have not fully agreed to it yet.
• 21:21
  Uh,
• 21:22
  because if he can smoke me and everybody in this audience,
• 21:24
  I kind of feel like he does deserve something cause that's not gonna be easy.
• 21:27
  There's a lot of smart people out there.
• 21:29
  He deserves a pat on the back.
• 21:30
  You say you have a bright future in,
• 21:32
  uh,
• 21:32
  Senate fantasy leagues there,
• 21:33
  Zach.
• 21:33
  As soon as you're of age to participate,
• 21:36
  good luck with that.
• 21:37
  OK,
• 21:37
  um,
• 21:37
  so,
• 21:38
  uh,
• 21:39
  before we get into your team,
• 21:39
  Dan,
• 21:40
  because I'm not,
• 21:40
  not seeing your team,
• 21:41
  we're gonna go through and kind of like go through your thought process on it.
• 21:44
  But,
• 21:44
  uh,
• 21:45
  I,
• 21:46
  game theory-wise,
• 21:48
  you know,
• 21:48
  it's one thing to try to pick all these races correctly.
• 21:51
  And the reason why we didn't just say,
• 21:53
  hey,
• 21:53
  let's,
• 21:53
  you get 8 picks and try to go 8 for 8.
• 21:56
  is because we wanted to bring in the aspects of prediction markets.
• 21:59
  You have to use these prediction market prices.
• 22:01
  So it's up to you to decide,
• 22:03
  do I take a bunch of favorites and just try to get above,
• 22:05
  uh,
• 22:06
  everybody else that way?
• 22:07
  Do I take a bunch of long shots and try to hit a couple of them?
• 22:09
  Will that be beneficial?
• 22:11
  What was your way uh about thinking about this as you went in,
• 22:15
  uh,
• 22:15
  to your picking your team?
• 22:17
  Well,
• 22:17
  I think you're looking for value and so you're looking at someone that,
• 22:22
  you know,
• 22:22
  hopefully is going to just cover a lot of ground because
• 22:24
  there's a lot of people you know are gonna win.
• 22:26
  They're at like 95 or 97 or 90,
• 22:29
  but,
• 22:29
  but it is just lopping a bunch of favorites together
• 22:32
  going to give you enough because you're not just,
• 22:35
  you don't win this contest by,
• 22:38
  uh,
• 22:38
  picking,
• 22:39
  like you said,
• 22:39
  just winners.
• 22:40
  You have to get the best margin,
• 22:42
  you have to get the best increase in your portfolio.
• 22:45
  And so you're looking for value here,
• 22:47
  not necessarily the winner,
• 22:49
  and,
• 22:50
  uh,
• 22:50
  and so,
• 22:51
  and then,
• 22:51
  and then also you've gotta
• 22:52
  factor in,
• 22:53
  you know,
• 22:53
  a,
• 22:54
  a couple of possible long shots here that
• 22:56
  you think might actually have maybe a little
• 22:58
  bit more chance than what the number is because if you hit one of those,
• 23:02
  well,
• 23:02
  that's gonna really boost your portfolio and give you
• 23:04
  a huge chance and then if you lose it.
• 23:06
  You know,
• 23:07
  no big deal.
• 23:07
  You're not losing as much,
• 23:09
  uh,
• 23:09
  in,
• 23:09
  in the portfolio.
• 23:10
  So,
• 23:11
  uh,
• 23:12
  you know,
• 23:12
  you can balance that.
• 23:13
  You can go heavy one way or the other.
• 23:15
  Um,
• 23:15
  I try to balance it a little bit,
• 23:17
  yeah,
• 23:17
  one,
• 23:17
  and that's one thing to think about when you're doing this is if you have favorites,
• 23:21
  you are.
• 23:21
  are going to win a little,
• 23:23
  potentially,
• 23:24
  uh,
• 23:24
  but also if you lose,
• 23:25
  you'll lose a lot.
• 23:26
  If you take a long shot,
• 23:28
  you can win a lot,
• 23:29
  but you,
• 23:29
  and when you lose,
• 23:30
  you only lose a little.
• 23:31
  So there is a trade-off there that's an interesting thing to look at.
• 23:34
  Let's,
• 23:34
  let's go through the site here and,
• 23:35
  uh,
• 23:35
  maybe we can get your picks in,
• 23:37
  and I would love to get your thinking on
• 23:38
  where you went and how you decided to do it.
• 23:41
  Um,
• 23:41
  if we could bring the,
• 23:42
  uh,
• 23:42
  site up,
• 23:43
  uh,
• 23:44
  there we go.
• 23:44
  Um,
• 23:45
  so you sign in,
• 23:45
  draft your teams.
• 23:46
  Uh,
• 23:47
  what's the name of your team?
• 23:49
  Um,
• 23:50
  the name of my team is Weekend at Mitch's.
• 23:52
  So,
• 23:54
  you know,
• 23:54
  it's just,
• 23:55
  uh,
• 23:56
  I'll just,
• 23:56
  I'll just leave that one there.
• 23:57
  Yeah,
• 23:58
  that would be a super,
• 23:59
  uh,
• 24:00
  super fun weekend,
• 24:00
  I think,
• 24:01
  you know,
• 24:01
  a lot of people will remember it.
• 24:02
  Uh,
• 24:03
  so when you go through,
• 24:03
  you see this,
• 24:03
  you'll see that all the rules here laid out there.
• 24:05
  I won't go through all of them,
• 24:06
  uh,
• 24:06
  now,
• 24:07
  um,
• 24:07
  but you'll,
• 24:08
  you can read them as you go and put your team in.
• 24:10
  By the way,
• 24:10
  I should mention this is a free league,
• 24:12
  so.
• 24:12
  Uh,
• 24:12
  and there are cash prizes.
• 24:14
  So it's
• 24:14
  basically,
• 24:15
  hey,
• 24:15
  why not,
• 24:16
  right?
• 24:16
  I mean,
• 24:17
  you learn a little about the elections,
• 24:18
  a little bit about the prediction markets,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:20
  and also have a chance to win,
• 24:21
  you know,
• 24:21
  there's thousands of dollars on the line.
• 24:23
  So if you want to participate,
• 24:24
  go to senatefantassy.com,
• 24:26
  completely free to enter,
• 24:27
  uh,
• 24:27
  enter,
• 24:27
  and,
• 24:27
  uh,
• 24:28
  thousands of dollars
• 24:29
  at stake.
• 24:30
  OK,
• 24:30
  uh,
• 24:30
  Dan,
• 24:31
  the first pick you get here is your MVP,
• 24:33
  and then we put it first because
• 24:34
  this is like the race you're most excited about where you think there's
• 24:36
  the most value and the reason why it's MVP Most Valuable politician.
• 24:40
  Is
• 24:41
  this counts double
• 24:43
  your points.
• 24:44
  So it's really a key part
• 24:46
  of your,
• 24:46
  uh,
• 24:46
  of your Senate fantasy team.
• 24:48
  What was your thinking here?
• 24:50
  Well,
• 24:50
  Susan Collins,
• 24:51
  and I think,
• 24:52
  uh,
• 24:52
  you know,
• 24:52
  having browsed some of the teams now because I've kind of flipped through the site,
• 24:55
  I feel like a lot of people are,
• 24:57
  are onto the Susan Collins situation.
• 24:59
  Not everybody picked her for MVP,
• 25:01
  but she's on a lot of,
• 25:02
  on a lot of teams here
• 25:04
  in the,
• 25:04
  uh,
• 25:04
  Senate Fantasy League,
• 25:05
  and I think it's because of her history there in Maine.
• 25:08
  She's like a unicorn there in Maine of just
• 25:10
  for whatever reason,
• 25:11
  she kinda.
• 25:13
  It has been able to keep winning there and then also
• 25:17
  the interesting part is that she's been down in the polls before
• 25:20
  and and then won and like been badly down in the polls and then won.
• 25:24
  So does that mean,
• 25:25
  does the past predict the future?
• 25:26
  No.
• 25:27
  Is a different environment now?
• 25:28
  Yes,
• 25:29
  but I mean she did pretty well in the debate actually,
• 25:33
  uh,
• 25:33
  again,
• 25:34
  sort of,
• 25:34
  uh,
• 25:35
  able to,
• 25:35
  I saw a few clips of that one where she was able to sort of,
• 25:39
  um,
• 25:39
  surgically make some good points against her opponent.
• 25:43
  So,
• 25:43
  uh,
• 25:43
  we'll see how that works out,
• 25:44
  but her,
• 25:45
  I got her,
• 25:45
  I think 44 cents,
• 25:46
  so,
• 25:47
  you know,
• 25:47
  to me doubling that,
• 25:48
  you know,
• 25:49
  potentially locking in.
• 25:52
  You know,
• 25:52
  56 cents there.
• 25:53
  Yeah,
• 25:54
  that's,
• 25:54
  it's good.
• 25:55
  I,
• 25:55
  and yeah,
• 25:55
  doubled,
• 25:55
  yeah,
• 25:56
  that's,
• 25:56
  that's true.
• 25:57
  Uh,
• 25:57
  I will say first of all,
• 25:58
  I'm annoyed because I was recommending her at 30 cents and 32 cents on this show,
• 26:02
  and I don't get the benefit of that at all now that she's up to 44 cents.
• 26:05
  So,
• 26:05
  uh,
• 26:06
  this is a travesty.
• 26:06
  It's a sham.
• 26:07
  It's a mockery.
• 26:07
  It's a Travis sham mockery.
• 26:09
  Um,
• 26:09
  I want people to know that.
• 26:10
  Um,
• 26:11
  and then,
• 26:11
  uh,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:12
  secondarily,
• 26:13
  like,
• 26:13
  uh,
• 26:14
  there's a couple of races like this.
• 26:16
  Most of the races,
• 26:17
  the Democrats actually
• 26:18
  did pretty well with their candidate selection.
• 26:21
  Again,
• 26:21
  I don't like their policies in most cases,
• 26:23
  but they're relatively good candidates.
• 26:24
  This is not one of those cases.
• 26:25
  They first picked a rapist,
• 26:27
  uh,
• 26:27
  allegedly,
• 26:28
  uh,
• 26:28
  alleged rapist,
• 26:29
  um,
• 26:30
  and then,
• 26:30
  uh,
• 26:31
  when they're like,
• 26:31
  hey,
• 26:31
  he can't participate anymore,
• 26:34
  uh,
• 26:34
  they just went to this like also ran third-place governor candidate,
• 26:38
  Troy Jackson,
• 26:38
  so they're really weak there.
• 26:40
  It's one of the reasons why I like Collins even in a weird year for Republicans.
• 26:44
  Um,
• 26:44
  next up,
• 26:45
  we have this broken up this way,
• 26:46
  Dan,
• 26:46
  because
• 26:47
  I think people would go in and they,
• 26:49
  if they like Republicans,
• 26:49
  pick all Republicans,
• 26:50
  they like Democrats,
• 26:51
  they pick all Democrats.
• 26:52
  We make you pick one
• 26:54
  of each category here.
• 26:56
  So this next pick has to be a Republican.
• 26:58
  Where did you go?
• 26:59
  I went Roger Marshall in Kansas and I was in the 63 cent range
• 27:07
  and uh again,
• 27:08
  you know,
• 27:08
  this is really primarily,
• 27:10
  uh I can't say that I know a ton about Roger Marshall,
• 27:14
  but what I do know is Kansas and.
• 27:17
  It's a very red state and so I mean to me I just feel like maybe this is a uh
• 27:23
  one of those situations of some.
• 27:26
  Uh,
• 27:27
  uh,
• 27:27
  you know,
• 27:28
  rosy polling perhaps for,
• 27:30
  you know,
• 27:31
  Democrats,
• 27:32
  and,
• 27:32
  uh,
• 27:32
  you'll see sort of the Republican roots of
• 27:35
  Kansas
• 27:36
  sort of come home.
• 27:38
  So that's sort of the thing in that one,
• 27:39
  honestly not super deep on that.
• 27:41
  Well,
• 27:41
  I will say too,
• 27:41
  his opponent is a,
• 27:43
  uh,
• 27:43
  is actually a pastor of like a,
• 27:45
  a mega church,
• 27:45
  I guess,
• 27:46
  uh,
• 27:46
  Adam Hamilton.
• 27:47
  And,
• 27:48
  uh,
• 27:48
  I,
• 27:48
  I don't know how much you've looked into that at all,
• 27:51
  Dan,
• 27:51
  but like,
• 27:51
  it feels weird in Kansas,
• 27:53
  but he,
• 27:53
  he,
• 27:53
  he seems to have kind of like one of those woke,
• 27:56
  uh,
• 27:57
  type churches,
• 27:58
  right?
• 27:58
  Like lots of like LGBTQ stuff and like climates,
• 28:01
  justice,
• 28:03
  you know,
• 28:03
  ministry and,
• 28:04
  and all this sort of thing.
• 28:05
  I,
• 28:06
  it seems like that wouldn't really connect with Kansas,
• 28:09
  but I don't,
• 28:09
  maybe,
• 28:10
  maybe I'm wrong on that,
• 28:11
  but it.
• 28:12
  You know,
• 28:12
  I,
• 28:13
  I like the idea of Marshall.
• 28:14
  Uh,
• 28:14
  I will say the polling has been pretty rough.
• 28:16
  I mean,
• 28:17
  it's,
• 28:17
  you know,
• 28:17
  Marshall's actually been behind
• 28:19
  in some of these polls.
• 28:20
  Still the favorite though in the prediction markets.
• 28:22
  Um,
• 28:23
  all right,
• 28:23
  let's move on,
• 28:23
  Dan,
• 28:24
  to our next pick.
• 28:25
  This time you have to pick a Democrat.
• 28:27
  Gotta go,
• 28:27
  uh,
• 28:27
  Dem on this one.
• 28:28
  Whether you like their policies or not,
• 28:30
  it's OK.
• 28:31
  This is a prediction market.
• 28:31
  Sometimes we have to go against the grain of what we believe,
• 28:34
  uh,
• 28:34
  politically.
• 28:35
  Who did you go with,
• 28:35
  with your Democratic pick?
• 28:38
  I went with Mary Peltola,
• 28:41
  uh,
• 28:42
  75 cents,
• 28:44
  and you know she's
• 28:46
  already shown she can win
• 28:48
  statewide.
• 28:49
  She's,
• 28:50
  you know,
• 28:50
  you got the ranked choice system there that could potentially,
• 28:54
  uh,
• 28:54
  benefit her.
• 28:55
  The polling has her,
• 28:56
  you know,
• 28:57
  kind of slightly ahead of Sullivan.
• 29:00
  Um,
• 29:00
  so it's.
• 29:02
  It's a little unusual I think for,
• 29:05
  for Alaska,
• 29:06
  but
• 29:07
  you know,
• 29:07
  looking at the value there looked like things are kind of
• 29:10
  aligning for her and you know,
• 29:12
  at 75 cents I felt there was some value there
• 29:16
  for her to get across the finish line.
• 29:17
  Yeah,
• 29:17
  this is the biggest gap,
• 29:18
  by the way,
• 29:19
  between what experts believe and what
• 29:22
  the prediction markets believe.
• 29:23
  Prediction markets are much more bullish on
• 29:25
  Peltola than the quote unquote experts,
• 29:27
  the election models,
• 29:29
  the polling averages and such.
• 29:30
  Um,
• 29:31
  and,
• 29:31
  uh,
• 29:31
  it's,
• 29:32
  it's interesting,
• 29:32
  I think a big reason for that is,
• 29:34
  you know,
• 29:34
  she's not,
• 29:35
  you mentioned several parts of it,
• 29:36
  but I think also she's running a lot on like local issues
• 29:40
  and not just trying to remix socialism in some new fancy way,
• 29:45
  um,
• 29:45
  you know,
• 29:46
  she may very well vote
• 29:47
  in line with every single left wing candidate that we know of,
• 29:51
  but she's at least
• 29:52
  presenting herself as someone who,
• 29:54
  you know,
• 29:54
  doesn't hate,
• 29:55
  uh,
• 29:55
  fossil fuels and,
• 29:56
  uh,
• 29:57
  you know,
• 29:57
  likes fishing and hunting and all that sort of stuff,
• 29:59
  so.
• 30:00
  Uh,
• 30:00
  so far,
• 30:00
  that's worked and she,
• 30:01
  it's worked well with independents in particular.
• 30:03
  Um,
• 30:04
  so next,
• 30:04
  we go into our regional groups here,
• 30:06
  Dan.
• 30:06
  Um,
• 30:07
  the regional groups are interesting because
• 30:09
  you,
• 30:09
  there's really only one super close state in the eastern region,
• 30:14
  that's Maine.
• 30:15
  You've already taken Susan Collins,
• 30:16
  so that one's off the board.
• 30:18
  You gotta look for value somewhere else.
• 30:19
  Where did you look?
• 30:21
  Well this is where I went long shot hunting
• 30:24
  and uh
• 30:26
  this is a funny one because I went to New Hampshire and John Sununu
• 30:31
  and uh
• 30:33
  the sole reason I went there
• 30:35
  um is because of the Sununu name in the area and so I'm this is
• 30:40
  as far as long shots go when you have someone.
• 30:42
  With the name recognition of a Sununu in,
• 30:45
  I mean,
• 30:46
  uh,
• 30:46
  deep roots there in New Hampshire,
• 30:48
  you know,
• 30:48
  the father was a governor,
• 30:50
  his brother Chris
• 30:51
  won the governorship 4 times,
• 30:54
  uh,
• 30:54
  so
• 30:55
  the,
• 30:55
  the Sununu name is very,
• 30:57
  very recognizable in
• 30:59
  New Hampshire and so I,
• 31:00
  you know,
• 31:02
  again,
• 31:02
  he's only at 11%,
• 31:04
  so I'm not.
• 31:05
  Entirely thinking it's gonna happen.
• 31:06
  I just think that given the name,
• 31:08
  he's at a much higher value than probably actually 11%.
• 31:11
  I'd put him maybe more in the 25% range or something like that.
• 31:15
  So it felt,
• 31:16
  it felt like a,
• 31:17
  uh,
• 31:17
  good time to,
• 31:18
  I didn't really love any of the other
• 31:20
  options there since I've already taken Collins,
• 31:22
  and so.
• 31:24
  Go for the long shot there.
• 31:25
  All right,
• 31:25
  I like it.
• 31:25
  I mean,
• 31:26
  big time upside with that one,
• 31:27
  and there have been polls showing that race very close.
• 31:29
  Uh,
• 31:29
  let's move over to the south.
• 31:30
  This is a tough one for everybody because there's basically no close races.
• 31:34
  Show that map up there for a second,
• 31:35
  Adam,
• 31:35
  um,
• 31:35
  because you see the map,
• 31:36
  it's all green.
• 31:37
  That means there's no like tight races.
• 31:39
  You gotta really search for value here.
• 31:42
  again,
• 31:42
  where did you go?
• 31:45
  Well,
• 31:45
  I went with,
• 31:46
  uh,
• 31:46
  Darlene Graham Nordone,
• 31:49
  uh,
• 31:49
  obviously Lindsey Graham's sister there
• 31:52
  at 86,
• 31:53
  like you said,
• 31:53
  I didn't love it.
• 31:54
  I didn't love a lot of the picks that were out that were available in,
• 31:57
  in that area.
• 31:58
  So,
• 31:58
  um,
• 31:59
  and also I didn't love her,
• 32:00
  um,
• 32:01
  answer if you remember back early on in that,
• 32:03
  I think it was in a debate.
• 32:05
  And she's like,
• 32:06
  well,
• 32:06
  I don't really know anything about foreign policy,
• 32:08
  and you're like,
• 32:08
  wait a minute.
• 32:10
  That was,
• 32:10
  uh,
• 32:11
  not the answer you want,
• 32:12
  Tom,
• 32:12
  but,
• 32:13
  uh,
• 32:13
  anyway,
• 32:14
  so I,
• 32:14
  uh.
• 32:16
  I thought that all right,
• 32:17
  the name recognition should get her across the finish line and
• 32:21
  it's at 86,
• 32:22
  so there's at least some value there.
• 32:24
  After all,
• 32:24
  it is South Carolina.
• 32:25
  This shouldn't be that difficult.
• 32:27
  Let's go to,
• 32:28
  uh,
• 32:28
  the Midwest region.
• 32:29
  This is the most competitive region of them all five states that are close.
• 32:32
  You took one of them off the board earlier with Roger Marshall.
• 32:35
  Uh,
• 32:35
  you got 4 other choices there,
• 32:36
  or you could go to a different state.
• 32:39
  What did you choose?
• 32:40
  I went Iowa Ashley Hinson here again going,
• 32:43
  uh,
• 32:43
  this is kind of a running theme for me like
• 32:46
  thinking that some of these states,
• 32:48
  the red
• 32:49
  roots of them are gonna kind of come back around
• 32:53
  and
• 32:54
  Iowa was one of those,
• 32:55
  um,
• 32:57
  and so in,
• 32:58
  in my mind.
• 32:59
  And so I'm kind of,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:01
  taking an optimistic look at that 59 and thinking,
• 33:03
  all right,
• 33:04
  that,
• 33:04
  that seems to make sense.
• 33:05
  And so,
• 33:07
  again,
• 33:07
  good value if it pulls through and a lot of people had Hinson too.
• 33:10
  I,
• 33:10
  I definitely wasn't the only one in there just sampling around.
• 33:13
  Yeah,
• 33:13
  it's,
• 33:13
  I,
• 33:14
  that's one of been one of my favorite picks since the beginning,
• 33:16
  and I,
• 33:16
  you know,
• 33:16
  I,
• 33:16
  I,
• 33:17
  I went through a little bit of this in the last.
• 33:18
  Segment as to how annoyed I am
• 33:20
  about a couple of developments that have made this more difficult than it should be,
• 33:24
  but we'll go into that again,
• 33:25
  maybe later.
• 33:26
  Uh,
• 33:26
  next region is the West.
• 33:27
  Uh,
• 33:28
  you already took Alaska off the map.
• 33:29
  So you've got a bunch of states that are,
• 33:31
  you know,
• 33:31
  have either go with a long shot or a heavy favorite,
• 33:33
  and then you got one big,
• 33:35
  you know,
• 33:35
  state out there in the state of Texas where I am,
• 33:38
  uh,
• 33:38
  very close race,
• 33:39
  maybe the highest profile race of this entire country.
• 33:41
  Did you get,
• 33:41
  did you get gutsy and go with that one,
• 33:43
  or did you go somewhere else?
• 33:44
  I went to Texas,
• 33:46
  and this is probably the pick that I'm uh.
• 33:50
  Uh,
• 33:51
  probably makes me is gonna make or break my card here,
• 33:54
  my team,
• 33:54
  and then I went with Ken Paxton
• 33:56
  at 36,
• 33:58
  and,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 33:59
  yeah,
• 34:00
  I mean,
• 34:00
  uh,
• 34:00
  you know,
• 34:01
  it's Texas
• 34:02
  again.
• 34:02
  I mean it's sort of the theme on my card it's Texas and I just,
• 34:05
  I,
• 34:05
  I mean I know Tallarico's been campaigning generally well
• 34:09
  even though he went
• 34:10
  MIA for a couple weeks there with a.
• 34:13
  With a sniffle or whatever he had
• 34:15
  that made him disappear for two weeks,
• 34:17
  um,
• 34:18
  happens all the time right before an election.
• 34:21
  So,
• 34:21
  but,
• 34:22
  uh,
• 34:22
  so yeah,
• 34:23
  I mean,
• 34:23
  I'm kind of thinking Texas is gonna come back around to what they usually do,
• 34:26
  uh,
• 34:27
  even though Ken Paxson's a flawed candidate,
• 34:29
  as I know you've talked about,
• 34:32
  and a lot of people are talking about,
• 34:33
  but,
• 34:33
  uh,
• 34:33
  so I,
• 34:34
  you know,
• 34:36
  everyone's big on Tallarico now.
• 34:37
  I saw a lot of people had Tallarico,
• 34:39
  so this is one that's either gonna.
• 34:41
  Make or break my,
• 34:42
  uh,
• 34:42
  my team here.
• 34:43
  All right.
• 34:44
  And then final,
• 34:44
  uh,
• 34:45
  uh,
• 34:45
  pick is flex.
• 34:46
  If you've ever been in a fantasy league,
• 34:47
  you usually have a flex slot,
• 34:48
  which
• 34:49
  kind of means you can pick from any different category.
• 34:51
  So you can go anywhere in the country with this one,
• 34:53
  Dan.
• 34:53
  The world is your oyster,
• 34:55
  or at least the country is.
• 34:56
  Where would you go with your last pick?
• 34:58
  Again,
• 34:59
  you know,
• 35:00
  uh,
• 35:01
  this one,
• 35:02
  I,
• 35:03
  I don't,
• 35:03
  I don't know.
• 35:03
  I don't know.
• 35:04
  I'm not,
• 35:04
  I'm not gonna say I,
• 35:05
  I don't know which one I like least out of my picks,
• 35:07
  whether it was Paxton or this one,
• 35:09
  but I went to Michigan and I went Mike Rogers.
• 35:12
  I mean,
• 35:12
  El Syed was just grilled in the last debate,
• 35:16
  uh,
• 35:17
  on his houses and how he's got,
• 35:20
  you know.
• 35:21
  Houses in,
• 35:22
  you know,
• 35:22
  the Middle East or whatever and,
• 35:24
  uh,
• 35:25
  you know,
• 35:25
  he,
• 35:25
  he,
• 35:26
  Rogers was getting grilled on his house in Florida and
• 35:28
  he said it's leased it's in the United States,
• 35:30
  um,
• 35:32
  and,
• 35:32
  and so I don't know.
• 35:33
  I mean we'll see.
• 35:33
  I mean I know El Sayed's been polling well and you know,
• 35:37
  but again these are ones that
• 35:39
  could conceivably on election day come around and you get a lot of
• 35:43
  value there and that's kind of what was my driving factor was looking at
• 35:47
  all right,
• 35:47
  do I think this is a higher than 33% chance?
• 35:50
  Yes.
• 35:51
  And so that that doesn't still mean it's a good chance,
• 35:53
  but it's better than 33,
• 35:55
  so I felt like I was getting value.
• 35:56
  All right.
• 35:57
  Weekend,
• 35:57
  not weekend at Bernie's weekend at Mitch's,
• 36:00
  uh,
• 36:00
  yeah,
• 36:01
  quickly,
• 36:01
  can we see the team one more time before we,
• 36:03
  uh,
• 36:03
  go?
• 36:03
  We'll run through it for
• 36:04
  everyone who happens to be,
• 36:06
  uh,
• 36:06
  listening.
• 36:06
  We got the MVP Susan Collins,
• 36:09
  uh,
• 36:09
  then rep uh,
• 36:10
  Republican Roger Marshall,
• 36:12
  Mary Peltola for the one Democrat on the board,
• 36:14
  John Sununu in the east,
• 36:16
  Darlene Graham Nordone in the south,
• 36:18
  in the,
• 36:18
  in the Midwest,
• 36:19
  it's Ashley Hinson.
• 36:20
  In the West,
• 36:21
  Ken Paxton and then Flex,
• 36:22
  Mike Rogers from Michigan.
• 36:23
  I will say,
• 36:24
  Dan,
• 36:24
  very Republican heavy here in what is rumored to be a very Democratic year.
• 36:28
  Does this make you nervous?
• 36:32
  Yeah,
• 36:32
  OK.
• 36:33
  Just like everybody else in the country,
• 36:35
  you fit in perfectly.
• 36:36
  OK,
• 36:36
  Dan Andros,
• 36:36
  uh,
• 36:37
  good luck with your team.
• 36:37
  Thanks for coming on the program.
• 36:38
  Follow him at Dan at Dan Andros on,
• 36:40
  uh,
• 36:41
  on the Twitter and the X and the,
• 36:42
  and all those things.
• 36:43
  All right,
• 36:43
  back in a second.
• 36:59
  It's time for candidate countdown.
• 37:00
  We pick a candidate each day that I might be able to find some value,
• 37:03
  uh,
• 37:03
  in when it comes to prediction markets.
• 37:06
  And today's candidate of the day with only 20 days until the midterm elections
• 37:10
  is
• 37:12
  Ilhan Omar.
• 37:13
  Yes,
• 37:14
  Elon Omar,
• 37:15
  Democrat from Minnesota.
• 37:16
  Now,
• 37:16
  someone said this,
• 37:17
  this
• 37:18
  segment is cursed.
• 37:19
  Anyone I talk about
• 37:20
  winds up having terrible election outcomes.
• 37:23
  I don't know.
• 37:24
  Uh,
• 37:24
  but anyway,
• 37:25
  um,
• 37:25
  by the way,
• 37:26
  why are we using,
• 37:26
  I like that picture.
• 37:27
  Look at her.
• 37:28
  She's like a mid,
• 37:29
  uh,
• 37:30
  I don't know,
• 37:30
  we could have used that picture.
• 37:31
  We also could have used the picture of her from the Maroon 5 video.
• 37:34
  I don't know if you know this.
• 37:35
  Every time I say this,
• 37:35
  someone says,
• 37:36
  oh gosh,
• 37:36
  that's that can't possibly be real.
• 37:37
  She's not really in a Maroon 5 video.
• 37:39
  Yes,
• 37:40
  she is.
• 37:40
  This is where she came from.
• 37:41
  She went from Maroon 5 to Congress.
• 37:44
  Now she's not in the The band Maroon 5,
• 37:46
  she doesn't have any
• 37:47
  musical talent that I know of.
• 37:48
  She's just standing there next to Adam Levine and,
• 37:50
  uh,
• 37:51
  pointing,
• 37:51
  hey,
• 37:52
  it's me,
• 37:52
  Ihan Omar.
• 37:53
  That's,
• 37:54
  that's legitimate.
• 37:55
  That's not AI by the way.
• 37:56
  That is a legitimate screenshot from the video of,
• 37:59
  what is it,
• 37:59
  Girls Like You?
• 38:00
  Uh,
• 38:01
  so there she is,
• 38:02
  uh,
• 38:02
  in case you were wondering about that.
• 38:03
  Now,
• 38:03
  the reason we bring up Ihan Omar,
• 38:05
  normally we wouldn't because there's just not a lot of value,
• 38:08
  frankly,
• 38:08
  in,
• 38:09
  uh,
• 38:09
  in Ihan Omar
• 38:10
  in multiple ways.
• 38:12
  Um,
• 38:12
  however,
• 38:13
  uh,
• 38:13
  in prediction market land,
• 38:15
  uh,
• 38:15
  you have a candidate like this in a district like this,
• 38:18
  to give you a sense of this,
• 38:19
  uh,
• 38:19
  Kamala Harris
• 38:20
  won 79 to 17.
• 38:23
  In this district.
• 38:23
  This is not,
• 38:24
  not a borderline district,
• 38:26
  very,
• 38:26
  very blue district.
• 38:27
  Um,
• 38:29
  Ilanamar usually underperforms,
• 38:30
  like she underperformed Harris by,
• 38:31
  you know,
• 38:32
  a relatively decent amount,
• 38:33
  um,
• 38:34
  but,
• 38:34
  you know,
• 38:34
  she's already won her,
• 38:35
  she won her primary comfortably,
• 38:36
  uh,
• 38:37
  she's gonna win this race,
• 38:39
  OK?
• 38:39
  That's at least where you'd,
• 38:40
  you'd enter.
• 38:42
  There were some bumps though.
• 38:43
  There were some bumps.
• 38:44
  Let me show you this,
• 38:45
  uh,
• 38:45
  this house,
• 38:46
  uh,
• 38:47
  uh,
• 38:47
  uh,
• 38:47
  uh,
• 38:47
  market here for this is,
• 38:49
  uh,
• 38:49
  Calci Market.
• 38:50
  She's now at 93.7.
• 38:52
  Zoom into the last like week or so though,
• 38:54
  um,
• 38:55
  because you see here,
• 38:56
  she was down at,
• 38:56
  what's her low point there,
• 38:57
  October 12th-ish,
• 38:59
  uh,
• 38:59
  92.
• 39:00
  I thought I saw her in the 91s at 1.91
• 39:03
  and maybe it hits there.
• 39:04
  It's hard to tell on this particular graph,
• 39:06
  but
• 39:06
  she's,
• 39:06
  she's bouncing around there.
• 39:07
  She's got two opponents,
• 39:09
  uh,
• 39:09
  John Nagle and Davell Jackson.
• 39:12
  Um,
• 39:12
  Nagle is,
• 39:13
  I think,
• 39:13
  has a,
• 39:13
  a,
• 39:14
  a law enforcement background,
• 39:15
  which is kind of an interesting contrast
• 39:17
  when it comes to Omar.
• 39:19
  But the chances of anyone beating her here are incredibly low,
• 39:23
  as shown by this.
• 39:25
  Go,
• 39:25
  uh,
• 39:25
  zoom back out to a month or,
• 39:26
  or so.
• 39:27
  If you look back before the raid though,
• 39:29
  what we're gonna talk about here in a second,
• 39:31
  you see what's her peak in the late September,
• 39:33
  uh,
• 39:34
  situation,
• 39:34
  uh,
• 39:34
  a little bit earlier than that.
• 39:36
  Uh,
• 39:37
  right there,
• 39:37
  98.6%. That's what this race normally would look like.
• 39:40
  You see the drop off.
• 39:41
  And,
• 39:42
  you know,
• 39:42
  I was able to pick up some shares.
• 39:43
  I thought it was in the high 91s,
• 39:45
  might have been low 92s,
• 39:46
  but,
• 39:47
  uh,
• 39:47
  that is,
• 39:48
  uh,
• 39:50
  I thought that was value when,
• 39:51
  when this raid happened.
• 39:52
  The raid is,
• 39:52
  uh,
• 39:53
  US probe at Bill Omarer focusing on her birth date,
• 39:55
  citizenship papers,
• 39:56
  um,
• 39:57
  etc.
• 39:58
  Uh,
• 39:58
  Ihan Omar's staff got her birthday changed
• 40:01
  officially after being elected to Congress.
• 40:03
  This doesn't seem to be controversial,
• 40:04
  by the way.
• 40:05
  This seemed to be something that actually did happen.
• 40:07
  Now,
• 40:07
  her defense on that is,
• 40:08
  hell,
• 40:09
  well,
• 40:09
  they had the date wrong,
• 40:10
  so I told them to change it.
• 40:12
  The reason why is her immigration situation would be totally different if she was,
• 40:15
  if this age difference is correct,
• 40:17
  right?
• 40:18
  If she came here,
• 40:19
  she had initially told people she came here as a,
• 40:21
  uh,
• 40:21
  you know,
• 40:22
  a child,
• 40:23
  and,
• 40:23
  uh,
• 40:23
  so she was under 18.
• 40:25
  I think that's the way it works.
• 40:25
  It's been a while since I've looked at that story,
• 40:27
  um,
• 40:28
  but she changed it,
• 40:29
  so she was,
• 40:30
  uh,
• 40:30
  under,
• 40:31
  uh,
• 40:31
  yeah,
• 40:31
  she was,
• 40:32
  she initially said she was an adult and then she,
• 40:33
  I think,
• 40:34
  changed it to her child,
• 40:35
  so she would have different immigration.
• 40:37
  Um,
• 40:37
  requirements.
• 40:38
  Long story short,
• 40:39
  she's a very well-known figure.
• 40:40
  I don't know how much of it comes from Maroon 5,
• 40:42
  maybe a lot,
• 40:43
  uh,
• 40:43
  but this is the graph what it looks like.
• 40:44
  She's at 73% of,
• 40:45
  of fame rating
• 40:47
  on from YouGov,
• 40:48
  uh,
• 40:48
  39%,
• 40:50
  uh,
• 40:50
  uh,
• 40:50
  popularity,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:52
  20%,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:53
  dislike,
• 40:54
  uh,
• 40:54
  and 13%,
• 40:55
  you know,
• 40:56
  don't,
• 40:56
  people don't really care.
• 40:57
  But,
• 40:57
  you know,
• 40:57
  there's a lot of,
• 40:58
  uh,
• 40:59
  opinion all over the board on Elon Omar.
• 41:00
  Give me the market one more time if you get a second.
• 41:02
  I'm just saying that like if you're looking for something.
• 41:05
  Um,
• 41:06
  where you think there's certainty,
• 41:07
  you get that like,
• 41:08
  you know,
• 41:08
  7 to 8%.
• 41:09
  Again,
• 41:09
  nothing is certain.
• 41:10
  First Amendment of the Constitution is a sure thing,
• 41:12
  always has air quotes.
• 41:14
  But
• 41:14
  I wanna scroll down on this market a little bit if we could,
• 41:17
  Adam,
• 41:17
  because I just to give you an idea
• 41:19
  of what,
• 41:20
  where this market is.
• 41:21
  The fact that you're getting 10% of the market with 3,
• 41:24
  weeks remaining before the election,
• 41:26
  and again,
• 41:26
  it's probably more like 8% right now,
• 41:29
  scroll,
• 41:29
  keep scrolling down,
• 41:30
  uh,
• 41:31
  see if they have a margin market down there.
• 41:33
  Now,
• 41:33
  I thought to myself,
• 41:34
  well,
• 41:34
  what if I can pick her to only win,
• 41:35
  maybe I'll get better value.
• 41:36
  Can I get her in the 80s for a 10 point margin?
• 41:39
  Click on Democratic margin of victory and show more.
• 41:42
  The lowest margin of victory they offer
• 41:45
  is Omar + 47.
• 41:49
  Which is an 87% chance of happening still.
• 41:52
  Omar 50
• 41:53
  is 82%.
• 41:54
  Remember,
• 41:54
  you can buy her just to win
• 41:56
  at 93.
• 41:58
  And they're,
• 41:59
  the next margin market to get her to win by 47 points
• 42:03
  is 87%.
• 42:05
  So first of all,
• 42:06
  do not buy the contract
• 42:09
  of Omar winning by 47 points to get 87%.
• 42:12
  Getting a 6 point,
• 42:14
  a little bit of an advantage there is not worth a 47 point trade-off.
• 42:17
  But
• 42:17
  my point there is that the fact that you can get her in the low 90s.
• 42:21
  Is really remarkable.
• 42:23
  That is not a price you should be able to get her at right now.
• 42:25
  So again,
• 42:26
  is she going to win?
• 42:27
  Yeah.
• 42:28
  The,
• 42:28
  uh,
• 42:28
  you know,
• 42:29
  I will be honest with you,
• 42:30
  even if she gets arrested before the election,
• 42:33
  I still think she'll win this election.
• 42:36
  So that's how certain I am on that one.
• 42:39
  if you want to get,
• 42:39
  uh,
• 42:39
  into a market like that,
• 42:40
  it is available.
• 42:41
  Ihan Omar,
• 42:42
  our candidate
• 42:43
  of the day,
• 42:44
  back in a second.
• 42:55
  I want to,
• 42:56
  uh,
• 42:56
  end the show today with a,
• 42:57
  uh,
• 42:57
  quick
• 42:58
  update on our friend Keith Malinak.
• 43:00
  You may have seen him on the program just a few weeks ago as we did our NFL,
• 43:03
  uh,
• 43:04
  wins and losses,
• 43:05
  uh,
• 43:05
  over under
• 43:06
  draft.
• 43:07
  Um,
• 43:08
  Keith,
• 43:08
  uh,
• 43:09
  worked with me for many years,
• 43:10
  hired him over at the,
• 43:10
  uh,
• 43:10
  Glenn Beck program a million years ago,
• 43:12
  and he's worked here at the Blaze,
• 43:14
  uh,
• 43:14
  with me and,
• 43:15
  uh,
• 43:16
  Glenn and Pat Gray unleashed,
• 43:18
  Jeffy,
• 43:18
  uh,
• 43:19
  for many,
• 43:19
  many years.
• 43:20
  If you didn't hear,
• 43:21
  uh,
• 43:21
  last week,
• 43:22
  he
• 43:22
  walked out in the middle of the show,
• 43:24
  uh,
• 43:24
  kind of in the middle of a segment.
• 43:25
  Uh,
• 43:25
  no one knew what was going on.
• 43:26
  He wound up having a,
• 43:27
  a stroke,
• 43:29
  um,
• 43:29
  and,
• 43:29
  uh,
• 43:30
  it's really,
• 43:31
  really,
• 43:31
  uh,
• 43:31
  terrible.
• 43:32
  He,
• 43:33
  um,
• 43:34
  is struggling for his life.
• 43:35
  I mean,
• 43:36
  to be honest with you,
• 43:36
  he is in critical but stable condition.
• 43:39
  We just got an update from,
• 43:40
  uh,
• 43:40
  Jeff.
• 43:41
  I've been pestering Jeffy constantly for updates,
• 43:43
  um,
• 43:43
  and this is a good one.
• 43:45
  we're going in the right direction a little bit here,
• 43:46
  I think.
• 43:47
  Um,
• 43:48
  he says,
• 43:48
  uh,
• 43:48
  this is from his wife Carrie,
• 43:50
  we wanna thank everyone for their generosity in prayer and in donations.
• 43:53
  Keith loves sharing his life with you and feels as if he knows each of you personally.
• 43:57
  Uh,
• 43:57
  he is able to communicate with his eyes.
• 44:00
  Um,
• 44:00
  so we now,
• 44:01
  we now know he hears us.
• 44:02
  Uh,
• 44:02
  you know,
• 44:03
  you think about like every movie you've ever
• 44:04
  seen about a coma situation where the person,
• 44:06
  you know,
• 44:07
  maybe never wakes up,
• 44:08
  right?
• 44:08
  The idea that he's actually communicating,
• 44:10
  I assume that's like what,
• 44:11
  one blink for yes,
• 44:12
  two blinks for no type of stuff,
• 44:13
  very basic,
• 44:14
  but
• 44:15
  a positive turn
• 44:16
  in,
• 44:16
  in a really,
• 44:17
  really rough freaking week.
• 44:18
  Um.
• 44:20
  He,
• 44:20
  you know,
• 44:21
  uh,
• 44:22
  I don't know if you can,
• 44:23
  Jeffy,
• 44:24
  he's at at Jeffy JFR on,
• 44:26
  um,
• 44:26
  on X,
• 44:27
  uh,
• 44:27
  go there.
• 44:28
  He's the one kind of providing as many updates that that is possible,
• 44:31
  um,
• 44:32
  you know,
• 44:32
  the,
• 44:32
  the,
• 44:32
  the family,
• 44:33
  of course,
• 44:33
  is doing their best to deal with all of this.
• 44:36
  There is a gift you send go as well if we've linked that on,
• 44:38
  on X a bunch of times as well.
• 44:39
  I've actually bottom of the screen right now,
• 44:41
  um,
• 44:41
  if you'd like to,
• 44:42
  uh,
• 44:42
  people have been very generous and,
• 44:44
  and helping out because,
• 44:45
  you know,
• 44:45
  of course these bills are going to be completely ridiculous,
• 44:47
  as we all know.
• 44:48
  Um,
• 44:49
  but,
• 44:49
  uh,
• 44:50
  we,
• 44:50
  we love you,
• 44:50
  Keith,
• 44:51
  and we miss you.
• 44:51
  And,
• 44:52
  uh,
• 44:52
  hopefully this is,
• 44:53
  this is some good news going,
• 44:54
  uh,
• 44:54
  going forward.
• 44:56
  Uh,
• 44:56
  hopefully we continue to get more.
• 44:57
  OK,
• 44:58
  uh,
• 44:58
  predictableShow.com.
• 44:59
  Join us there as well.
• 45:00
  Uh,
• 45:01
  we will have more prediction market material and,
• 45:03
  uh,
• 45:03
  some interesting stuff,
• 45:04
  some new markets,
• 45:05
  some stranger bizarre ones as well.
• 45:07
  We'll get into tomorrow,
• 45:08
  uh,
• 45:08
  and more election talk.
• 45:09
  We're getting really,
• 45:10
  really close,
• 45:10
  boys and girls.
• 45:12
  We will see you tomorrow.