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Can New Orleans Saints Trade Derek Carr, Trevor Penning Or Chris Olave? · AFR Saints

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  Speaker 1: AFR on Demand is brought to you by Breck Golf.
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  Speaker 1: full round, book your tea time today golf dot Breck
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  Speaker 1: dot org. Golf dot Breck dot org. So we've talked
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  Speaker 1: plenty about Derek Carr's future in New Orleans and that's
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  Speaker 1: a big decision the Saints are going to have to make.
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  Speaker 1: There's a really interesting piece of at ESPN where they
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  Speaker 1: looked at Sam Darnald. What the what the Vikings do
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  Speaker 1: with Sam Darnold? Of course, they drifted JJ McCarthy he
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  Speaker 1: was injured. Donald went and had a massive season. They
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  Speaker 1: went fourteen and three, So no, what do you do
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  Speaker 1: with Darnald? And then the domino effect across the NFL
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  Speaker 1: And one of the quarterbacks that they talked about, of course,
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  Speaker 1: is Derek Carr, who carries a fifty one and a
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  Speaker 1: half million dollar cap hit for twenty twenty five it's
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  Speaker 1: the fourth highest in the NFL. By the way, think
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  Speaker 1: about that, fifty three man roster, thirty two teams. Derek Carr.
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  Speaker 1: Derek Carr has the fourth highest cap hit for next year.
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  Speaker 1: Derek Carr. That's the product of gross mismanagement of your
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  Speaker 1: roster and your salary cap. But you know my feeling
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  Speaker 1: on that. Look, they could cut Derek Carr, designate him
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  Speaker 1: a post June one release, and they could save nearly
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  Speaker 1: thirty million dollars against the cap this year, be a
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  Speaker 1: massive cap savings. You would kick money into twenty twenty six,
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  Speaker 1: but it may be something that you have to do
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  Speaker 1: for cap compliance this year, and with the cap going
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  Speaker 1: up every year because revenue goes up, it may end
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  Speaker 1: up working out anyway. You look at twenty twenty five,
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  Speaker 1: we know the number. The cap number isn't good for
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  Speaker 1: the Saints as it says now, they're roughly fifty million
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  Speaker 1: dollars over the cap, so they still had a lot
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  Speaker 1: of work to do, and cutting Derek Carr designating him
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  Speaker 1: as a post June one release would help out tremendously there.
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  Speaker 1: But you're not going to make a decision on Derek
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  Speaker 1: Carr until you hire a coach, Because there's two ways
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  Speaker 1: to look at it. If you hire a coach that
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  Speaker 1: understands you're going into a rebuild, okay, then you can
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  Speaker 1: cut Derek Carr. You could take your lumps this year
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  Speaker 1: with Hayna Rattler. Probably bring in a veteran free agent
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  Speaker 1: for one year, like Jimmy Garoppolo, a Jacoby Brussett, someone
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  Speaker 1: like that, so you'd have a veteran on the team
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  Speaker 1: and then and then young players you're gonna stink. You
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  Speaker 1: just go in understanding it's going to be brutal, you're
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  Speaker 1: gonna get a top five pick, and try to draft
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  Speaker 1: your franchise. It's what the Bengals did when they hired
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  Speaker 1: Zach Taylor. They were awful in his first year, they
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  Speaker 1: got the first pick, they drafted Joe Burrow. They were
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  Speaker 1: but still bad, and then in Taylor's third year, burrows second,
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  Speaker 1: they went to the super Bowl. Now that's a ambitious
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  Speaker 1: way to look at it, but that's possible in a
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  Speaker 1: year where next year where it looks like in twenty twenty,
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  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six draft should be a deep quarterback
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  Speaker 1: draft class with archs Manning and nuss Meyer and Drew
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  Speaker 1: Aller and there should be a lot of really talented
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  Speaker 1: players in next year's quarterback draft class anyway, but Carr
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  Speaker 1: is the one that everyone's going to focus on, and
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  Speaker 1: rightfully so high profile, expensive, all that stuff. But Chris
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  Speaker 1: Olave and Trevor Penning are two players that the Saints
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  Speaker 1: are going to have to make a pretty important decision
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  Speaker 1: about this offseason as well. Those are guys that were
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  Speaker 1: former first round draft picks that have just finished their
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  Speaker 1: third year in the league. So now New Orleans is
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  Speaker 1: going to have to decide whether or not in this
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  Speaker 1: offseason whether or not they're going to pick up those
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  Speaker 1: two players fifth year options. So remember, if you draft
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  Speaker 1: a player in Round one, you have them for four
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  Speaker 1: years with a fifth year option. But if you pick
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  Speaker 1: up that fifth year option, you pay the average salary
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  Speaker 1: of the third to twenty fifth highest paid players at
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  Speaker 1: that position in the NFL. So, for example, Trevor Penning's
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  Speaker 1: fifth year option, this is according to over the cap
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  Speaker 1: at the estimate over the cap would be about seventeen
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  Speaker 1: point four million dollars and Chris A. Lave's fifth year
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  Speaker 1: option would be at fifteen point one million dollars. Now,
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  Speaker 1: but for the injuries, Chris a Lave would be an
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  Speaker 1: easy decision, right, I mean, he was a thousand yard
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  Speaker 1: receiver each of his first two seasons in the NFL.
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  Speaker 1: But this year Chris Alave played just half the season
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  Speaker 1: because of the concussion issues. And when you're talking about
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  Speaker 1: a guy with the recurring concussion issues that a Lave had,
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  Speaker 1: and then on top of that, even though he had
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  Speaker 1: back to back thousand yard seasons to start his career,
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  Speaker 1: he still hasn't played a full seventeen game season as
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  Speaker 1: a rookie. He played in fifteen in twenty twenty three,
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  Speaker 1: he missed one game, and then this year played in
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  Speaker 1: eight games. So he missed nine games this season. So
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  Speaker 1: you're you're kind of between a rock and a hard place.
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  Speaker 1: But even if you look at the way a Lave
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  Speaker 1: was trending in twenty twenty four before the injuries, he
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  Speaker 1: was averaging fifty yards and four catches per game before
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  Speaker 1: the injury shut him down, so he was pacing for
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  Speaker 1: season lows. Now we'd say, look part of that was
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  Speaker 1: after Derek Carr's injury, the new offensive court. There's a
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  Speaker 1: lot of excuse making, but it still doesn't change the
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  Speaker 1: fact that you got to make a decision with the
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  Speaker 1: sample size you have about Penning and a lave. Now,
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  Speaker 1: to me, Penning is an easy one. There's no way
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  Speaker 1: you can pick up this guy's option. You're encouraged by
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  Speaker 1: the fact that he became a starter for you and
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  Speaker 1: actually on a line that became a mass unit. Your
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  Speaker 1: two tackles, your rookie Talisa Fwonga and Trevor Penning. Your
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  Speaker 1: tackles became sort of your your stalwarts. I mean, those
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  Speaker 1: guys were out there, and Penning played every game for you.
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  Speaker 1: So after sort of an injury plagued and very disappointing
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  Speaker 1: first two seasons, Penning wasn't good, but he became a
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  Speaker 1: starter similar to the way that Caesar Ruiz did and has.
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  Speaker 1: He's not been a great player at his position, but
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  Speaker 1: he has become a consistent starter, and Penning did that
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  Speaker 1: this year. Now do you run it back with Penning
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  Speaker 1: at right tackle? Do you try to move him to guard?
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  Speaker 1: Maybe he plays left guard for you as you're still
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  Speaker 1: trying to find a permanent option there. Maybe maybe that's Penning,
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  Speaker 1: or maybe he stays on the right side at tackle.
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  Speaker 1: Either way, it's hard to justify seventeen million dollar number
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  Speaker 1: for Trevor Penning in his fifth season. What is more
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  Speaker 1: likely to happen is you decline the fifth year option.
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  Speaker 1: Penning plays twenty twenty five his fourth year, and if
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  Speaker 1: effectively he's playing in a contract year, and then you
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  Speaker 1: pay him appropriately. If you want to resign him, you
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  Speaker 1: pay him appropriately based on what he does in twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty five. And if he becomes a guy that's not
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  Speaker 1: a viable starter, then you're gonna pay him like a
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  Speaker 1: backup or he's gonna go somewhere else. And if he
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  Speaker 1: does start and play very well for you, then you
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  Speaker 1: assess what type of contract you want to give him.
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  Speaker 1: And there's always the possibility another team could sign him away,
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  Speaker 1: but more likely, more than likely, what will happen is
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  Speaker 1: what's happened with the other players that the Saints have
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  Speaker 1: declined their fifth year option, and they're gonna end up
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  Speaker 1: back in New Orleans, just on a lesser deal. So,
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  Speaker 1: just for what it's worth, there's three players. If you
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  Speaker 1: go back in the last fifteen years or so, go
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  Speaker 1: back to twenty ten, there's three players that the Saints
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  Speaker 1: really well, another one they traded away, but there's three
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  Speaker 1: players where they've declined the fifth year option. Peyton Turner.
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  Speaker 1: This was his fifth year, so they declined his fifth
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  Speaker 1: year option. So Peyton Turner, now you gotta make a decision.
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  Speaker 1: Are you gonna You're gonna resign him, you gonna pa him,
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  Speaker 1: you gonna let him walk? What do you do? But
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  Speaker 1: they declined Peyton Turner's fifth year option. Caesar Ruiz, they
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  Speaker 1: declined his fifth year option, so he went into free
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  Speaker 1: agency and the Saints resigned him at a much more
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  Speaker 1: manageable number. And then people forget this one, but the
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  Speaker 1: Saints declined mark Ingram's fifth year option as well. And
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  Speaker 1: I know people have accused me of, like, you know,
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  Speaker 1: mark Ingram catches strays on the show from time to time,
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  Speaker 1: and people find it odd because you know, he was
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  Speaker 1: the Saints, you know, leading rusher and all that stuff.
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  Speaker 1: It's now you know, uh, Alvin kamaras broken broken as records.
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  Speaker 1: But the bottom line is mark Ingram came in as
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  Speaker 1: a first round pick where you drafted Cam Jordan traded
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  Speaker 1: back into round one to get mark Ingram, and he
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  Speaker 1: was so bad that you didn't pick up his fifth
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  Speaker 1: year option. Like he became stable as a counter punch
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  Speaker 1: to Alvin Kamara, which was nice to see, but mark
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  Speaker 1: Ingram was certainly wasn't a first round worthy running back.
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  Speaker 1: If mark Ingram was an undrafted free agent or a
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  Speaker 1: Day three guy that became a serviceable contributor for you, cool,
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  Speaker 1: like if he was Pierre Thomas, awesome undrafted free agent
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  Speaker 1: who became a good player for you. But that's not
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  Speaker 1: what mark Ingram was. So that's why I always say
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  Speaker 1: that about Ingram, like he wasn't a great player relative
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  Speaker 1: to what you gave up to get him. Anyway. The
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  Speaker 1: other was Stefan Anthony, but yeah, he was atrocious and
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  Speaker 1: you traded him down in Miami. So that's what I think. Penning,
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  Speaker 1: to me, is the easy one. You're not picking up
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  Speaker 1: Trevor Penning's fifth year option. You can't justify paying him
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  Speaker 1: seventeen million dollars. A Lave is the trickier one because
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  Speaker 1: if he were healthy, it would be easy, but he
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  Speaker 1: hasn't shown that he could be healthy. My guess is
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  Speaker 1: they pick up Chris Olave's fifth year option anyway. But
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  Speaker 1: when you look at the top tier this year, in
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, there were twenty four pass catchers that
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  Speaker 1: had one thousand yard seasons, So you look at how
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  Speaker 1: you want to pay Chris Olave and you say, okay, well,
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  Speaker 1: Lizzie More, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas, who, by
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  Speaker 1: the way, were the top three pass catchers in the
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  Speaker 1: NFL this year, where they haven't common you know, or
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  Speaker 1: the like the last guys that had thousand yard seasons
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  Speaker 1: like Nico Collins or Jamison Williams. I mean a Lotvey
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  Speaker 1: had a couple of thousand yard seasons to start his career,
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  Speaker 1: and he's probably closer to the bottom of that list.
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  Speaker 1: So he's probably not worth fifteen million a year. Just
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  Speaker 1: came and he's not worth that. But do you really
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  Speaker 1: want to risk a Lave next year coming back healthy,
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  Speaker 1: having a massive season and then being paid requisite to
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  Speaker 1: the market or having another team come and offer more
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  Speaker 1: and sign him away, and so you lose a guy
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  Speaker 1: because you failed to pick up the fifth year option
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  Speaker 1: over a couple million bucks. But these are the types
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  Speaker 1: of questions you have and conundrums that you have when
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  Speaker 1: you've pulled manage your salary cap and so a million
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  Speaker 1: here or there does matter dramatically because you have mismanaged
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  Speaker 1: your cap so badly. But we're gonna talk a lot
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  Speaker 1: about Derek Carr for the obvious reasons, but the Saints
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  Speaker 1: are gonna have to make a decision as well on
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  Speaker 1: a Lave and Penning in their fifth year option. For
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  Speaker 1: whatever it's worth, that window to pick up a team.
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  Speaker 1: A player's fifth year option opened on January the sixth,
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  Speaker 1: so it's already open, and it closes right after the
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  Speaker 1: draft on May the first, so they don't have to
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  Speaker 1: make a decision now. They can wait till after the
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  Speaker 1: draft ultimately to make that decision on what they're gonna do.
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  Speaker 1: But the Penning decisions easy. The Lave one because of
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  Speaker 1: the injury history, makes a little more complex. I think
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  Speaker 1: ultimately they will end up picking up a Lave's fifth
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  Speaker 1: year option, but we'll wait and see. Just something else
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  Speaker 1: to file away to keep in mind they've got to
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  Speaker 1: do here this offseason.