Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 479 - 3/27/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to episode 479 of the all systems go sports betting
- 0:20podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host Josh Applebaum.
- 0:30What's going on everyone? Happy Friday.
- 0:32Our work week has come to an end, but we got a lot to discuss
- 0:36on the final day of the week here as we steam into a big
- 0:39weekend. Because we got once again
- 0:41college hoops to talk about how we had our first 4 pack of Sweet
- 0:4416 games last night. We got another 4 pack here for
- 0:48tonight. I have 3 plays for you.
- 0:50I could have had four. Didn't want to push one that I
- 0:53kind of had a lean on, but it didn't quite meet the line.
- 0:56Movement bet, split rhythm criteria that we look for.
- 1:00So as always, with an odd number of games, three overall, we're
- 1:03going to try to go 2 and one ecot a winning night, hopefully
- 1:06finish off the week on a hot note as we steam into the
- 1:09weekend. And then I was looking at the
- 1:10board. Did you guys know tomorrow, big
- 1:13Saturday, we got Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Arizona, so we got some
- 1:17Elite 8 coming up here this weekend.
- 1:19And then obviously we'll find out the other two Elite Eight
- 1:21games after tonight. We just want to remind everyone
- 1:24there's no podcast on the weekends.
- 1:26Now that I'm a dad, I have all these responsibilities, but hey,
- 1:29they're good responsibilities. I'm, I'm loving it here.
- 1:32My, my daughter turns 6 days old today.
- 1:35So we're starting to get a little bit more sleep each
- 1:37night. She's starting to have a little
- 1:39bit more of a personality. And we were able to cash Red Sox
- 1:42watching the the Sox together. So in the Margo Applebaum era,
- 1:46we named her Margo. If you didn't know, which again,
- 1:50we kind of deciding on a name was very hard because you know,
- 1:53my wife Elise would like a name, then I wouldn't really like it.
- 1:55And then I would love something and she wouldn't like it.
- 1:57And then we, we've always been fans of Margot Robbie, but there
- 2:00was a, we were watching TV one night and there was a commercial
- 2:03for, I think it was Withering Heights with Jacob O Lordy and
- 2:08Margot Robbie. And we're like, oh, Margot, that
- 2:09sounds pretty good. And we both liked it.
- 2:11So we named her Margot. But anyway, cashing a ticket
- 2:15with my daughter in my arms as the Red Sox are undefeated since
- 2:19my daughter was born again one and O, but still pretty awesome.
- 2:22But just wanted to mention that, you know, we're going to be
- 2:24getting into baseball here a ton.
- 2:26So I know a lot of people are asking about MLB plays off to a
- 2:29good start. 2 and O with the Yankees and the Red Sox so far.
- 2:33If you've been listening to the pot or following the best bets
- 2:36on juice rail. But just don't worry.
- 2:38I want to really kind of embrace college hoops because we're
- 2:41almost done with college basketball and just, you know,
- 2:43don't worry. We have so much baseball to talk
- 2:46about all, you know, spring and summer and into the fall before
- 2:50obviously football gets back. But if you're scratching looking
- 2:52for MLB plays, just know that they're coming and every day
- 2:56we'll have three MLB plays basically, as long as they they
- 2:59match some some systems that we're looking for.
- 3:01So all my all my seam heads out there.
- 3:04Stay tuned. But we're very close to three
- 3:06MLB plays every single day. But that being said, three pack
- 3:09today, guys, I got let's see a favorite and two dogs.
- 3:12We're going to see if a couple can bark for us or cash for us
- 3:16and hopefully finish off the week on a winning note.
- 3:19But with that being said, no pot on the weekends.
- 3:21You can always read the sharp reports Visen Calm that I write
- 3:24as well as following the best bet picks on the Juice Reel app
- 3:27which you can get for $4.99 a week.
- 3:30That is again a basically a $5.00 bill.
- 3:32Not $499 like some picks packages out there Vegas Dave
- 3:37and the whole crew, but $4.99. So I consider it a tip jar.
- 3:41If you enjoy the pod, this pod is free and you can always sign
- 3:44up to get those ASG best bet picks from Juice rail.
- 3:47So that being said, three pack today.
- 3:49All college hoops trying to go 2 and 1 eke out a winning day and
- 3:52we were able to eke out a winning day yesterday.
- 3:54So 3 and 2 + 0.38 units might have been even better if you're
- 3:59able to take advantage of some of these odd boosts that we are
- 4:01now being offered at various sports books because again, MLB
- 4:05is back. So they're going to try to
- 4:07entice you to bet MLB. So take advantage of an odds
- 4:09boost or college basketball, they want you to bet Sweet 16 at
- 4:13that sports book, so you might have a boost there available as
- 4:16well. Whenever you log in, you can go
- 4:17to promos or whatever, click that tab is and see what's
- 4:20available to you. But it might have been a little
- 4:23bit more than 0.38 units, but had a great hit with the Red
- 4:26Sox. As I mentioned, it wasn't just
- 4:29a, you know, ride the Sox. Even though I did text my group
- 4:32chat, I said there's no way the Red Sox lose.
- 4:35When I'm watching my first Red Sox game with my newborn
- 4:38daughter, there's no way. Put the house on it.
- 4:39Just kidding. You know, you don't want to do
- 4:41that. What my friends did for her and
- 4:43they cash. So that was nice.
- 4:45And I tell you what guys holding my daughter in her Red Sox
- 4:48onesie as we're sweating the Red Sox.
- 4:50It wasn't easy cuz Crochet and Abbott we're going back and
- 4:53forth. Red Sox kept leaving guys on
- 4:55base. They finally broke through in
- 4:57the 8th and 9th inning. So nice little 3 nothing win in
- 5:00Margo Applebaum's debut and then in college hoops split them two
- 5:04and two. So had some great hits there
- 5:06with Illinois. Illinois was awesome because it
- 5:08just didn't make too much sense that you know, Houston had the
- 5:12the higher seed. Houston was pretty much at home.
- 5:15It was a very short number, but remember majority was on
- 5:18Houston. But at one point Houston was -3
- 5:201/2 got down to 2 1/2. And if you look at the juice
- 5:22late, it was all in the Illinois side.
- 5:24Plus 2 1/2 -, 115. So Illinois with a good sharp
- 5:29edge there from both rhythm and juice rail came through for the
- 5:32team to punch their ticket to the elite 8.
- 5:35Also had a fantastic hit with Iowa.
- 5:37Iowa feels like a team of destiny guys.
- 5:39That was my favorite play overall because it was just an
- 5:42absolute blueprint. Sharp, contrarian play.
- 5:45Everybody and their mother on Nebraska, but Nebraska opened -3
- 5:48line got down to 1 1/2. Why did the line go to Iowa if
- 5:51everyone's playing Nebraska? So Iowa, again, they were kind
- 5:55of down the whole game and turned it on late again,
- 5:57cashing, cashing another ticket as a dog, winning outright.
- 6:00So Iowa came through for the team, and then the losers were
- 6:03Arkansas and Purdue. And they're kind of frustrating.
- 6:06Because Purdue only won by two, so obviously didn't cover the 7
- 6:101/2. But did you guys notice where
- 6:11Purdue closed? They closed -8 1/2.
- 6:15So we talked about Purdue -7 1/2 on the pod as a bit of a fade.
- 6:19The trendy dog play. We got a 7 1/2.
- 6:22They closed -8 1/2. So we did our part, beat the
- 6:25closing line, got a good number. They just again, only one by
- 6:28two. We needed them to win by 8.
- 6:30But if you're beating closing lines by a full point, that's
- 6:33always a good sign that even though we didn't make the didn't
- 6:35get a winner there, we read the market correctly.
- 6:38And then kind of the same thing with Arkansas.
- 6:40Arkansas, which I must say, Arizona looks like a world
- 6:44beater. I mean, talk about watching a
- 6:46game where the team you're betting on, you know, they
- 6:49didn't play terribly, but just the team you're going up against
- 6:52would not miss a single shot. I feel like every time Arizona
- 6:55shot the ball, it went in there just like unstoppable.
- 6:58So I don't know, maybe Arizona's just going to win it all and no
- 7:01one's going to be close. But did you guys notice where
- 7:04that line closed? Arizona, I'm sorry, flip it.
- 7:07Arkansas. I got Arkansas.
- 7:09What was it? Plus 8 1/2?
- 7:10A lot of books closed at +8. So again, beating the closing
- 7:14line, getting a good number, just having the team on the
- 7:17court not come through for us. So two and two with Iowa and
- 7:21Illinois coming through. And then even though we lost
- 7:23Purdue in Arkansas, CLV. So CLV the key with CLV and you
- 7:27want to spark a debate, you know, walk, go on Twitter and
- 7:30and you know, put an opinion out about closing line value because
- 7:33we have the the CLV truthers out there, the flat earthers.
- 7:36But CLV to me, it doesn't mean that you're guaranteed a win.
- 7:39But if you show me a better who consistently gets closing line
- 7:42value versus a better who does not, I can quickly tell you
- 7:45which better is sharper. It's the the better getting CLV.
- 7:48So 3 and 2 + 0.38 units may be better with those odds boosts.
- 7:53And I will mention I had a couple people.
- 7:56It's kind of cool. I haven't mentioned this too
- 7:57much, but if you sign up to get the ASG best bet picks from
- 8:00Juice Reel, you go to the profile page and if you follow
- 8:03the plays for 5 bucks a week, there's a little like chat icon
- 8:08where you can, you know, type in questions, comments, some people
- 8:11throw in questions, comments and they're asking about the night
- 8:15before when I took the Yankees, they're were they -125 but I got
- 8:19them like plus 1/15 and someone in the chat was like, where the
- 8:23hell did you find plus 1:15? Well, it was the odds boost.
- 8:26So if you notice now I'll just kind of let you know if you see
- 8:29a little little lightning bolt icon next to a bet on juice
- 8:33real, that means it was a boosted price.
- 8:36So just wanted to mention that because it's a kind of a kind of
- 8:39a cool feature. But anyway, guys without further
- 8:41ado, let's see if we can finish off the week on a winning Note 3
- 8:45March madness Sweet 16 games. Let's try to get 2 out of these
- 8:48three and finish up the week on a hot note.
- 8:51So first one on the board and I'll I'll just mention this
- 8:54guys. I didn't bet St.
- 8:55John's Duke because really nothing jumped out to me like I
- 8:59wanted to bet on Saint John's because my wife is a proud
- 9:03graduate of Saint John's and we could watch the game together
- 9:05with my daughter again. But I I just couldn't find an
- 9:08edge. It looked like kind of, it was
- 9:10sneaky sharp toward Duke. Ken Palm had a 7 point game.
- 9:14I had rhythm models on both sides.
- 9:17Saint John's is kind of public, 65% of bets at DraftKings.
- 9:20So I said I don't have a clear edge here so I'm not going to
- 9:23force it. I'm not going to play it.
- 9:24So if you like the Johnny Boys, hope they cover.
- 9:27If you like Duke, I can see why you might like Duke.
- 9:29It's a low number and public is all over Saint John's as a
- 9:32trendy dog. So I just got nothing there, no
- 9:35part of it. So I'm just going to focus on
- 9:37these three upcoming games after St.
- 9:40Johnny's Johnny Boys and Duke and see if we can get some of
- 9:43these bets here to go our way. So first play for me.
- 9:46Let's go to a 7:35 PM Eastern Time.
- 9:48First tip, Alabama Crimson Tide first, the Michigan Wolverines
- 9:53set the stage. Talk splits, line movements,
- 9:56line movement, rhythm, juice, real, the whole the whole
- 9:58shebang. And we'll see if we can
- 10:00hopefully cash this ticket. So going into it, we got Bama 25
- 10:04and 9 on the year. They are the four seed.
- 10:07They just beat up Texas Tech 90 to 65 in the second round.
- 10:11Dominated and easily covered as a 1 1/2 point neutral site
- 10:14favorite. You know, Michigan again,
- 10:16absolute wagon all year long. They're 33 and three.
- 10:19They're the one seed just dominated.
- 10:21St. Louis 95 to 72 in the second
- 10:24round. Easily covered as a 12 1/2 point
- 10:26neutral site favorite. So what we've seen across the
- 10:28market here. Well, this game opened with
- 10:31Michigan listed as a 10 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
- 10:34So kind of a big number here. And what's interesting to me is
- 10:37does the public say, hey, this is another, you know, Arizona,
- 10:40great team, kind of a big number, but who cares?
- 10:43Lay it because they're going to the dominate and roll.
- 10:45And which point you'd see the line go up to, you know -11 -.
- 10:4812 Michigan or the wise guys say, yeah, that's a big number
- 10:52and Bama can keep it close and maybe that number drops.
- 10:55Well, the public doesn't know what to do here.
- 10:57They're 5050 because they've they've seen these great teams
- 11:00dominate again. We've had favorites do very
- 11:02well, still covering like 58% of the time this postseason.
- 11:06But public is split down the middle 5050 at DraftKings.
- 11:09So what do we always talk about when it comes to a 5050 ticket
- 11:12count, if the bets are even down the middle?
- 11:15We're not talking money, we're talking ticket count, because
- 11:17ticket count is where you find where the public is, and money
- 11:21compared to the tech account is where you find where the sharp
- 11:23money's at. So Publix 5050, half of them are
- 11:26taking BAM on the points, half of them are taking Michigan
- 11:29minus the points. But in a 5050 situation, you
- 11:33would expect a line shouldn't move at all, right?
- 11:36Because theoretically, in a vacuum, odds makers have
- 11:38balanced action. So there's really no reason to
- 11:40bring the line up or down because they got even, even
- 11:42action and they can just rake the juice in and doesn't really
- 11:45matter who covers because they'll just take that.
- 11:47That $0.10 on a dollar. However, sometimes you're going
- 11:51to get a 5050 split and yet the line does move.
- 11:53And that's important to me, talk about all the time.
- 11:56But if it's 5050 and the line does move, that tells me that
- 11:59even though the public doesn't know what to do, sharps have
- 12:01taken a position and move that number.
- 12:03So the 5050 line move here is on Bama.
- 12:06Guys, I'm going to go Bama. I'm worried because Michigan,
- 12:09you know, could win by 20 like Arizona last night.
- 12:12But I got to stay true to what the date is telling me.
- 12:14And the date is telling me that even though the tickets are
- 12:16split at DK, this line is falling Michigan -10 1/2 down to
- 12:21-9 1/2. The other angle here is that
- 12:24even the line is falling 10 1/2 to 9 1/2 toward Alabama.
- 12:28You look at the juice and it's juiced not back toward Michigan.
- 12:31Like it's going back up to 10, but it's actually juiced toward
- 12:34Bama. Quite a few books are plus 9 1/2
- 12:37- 115. And I see a couple books even
- 12:39down to 9. So it's pretty clear that the
- 12:42line is moving toward Bama. Now if we gravitate and move
- 12:46over toward in Vegas at Circa, you know, we just again talked
- 12:50about how DraftKings is 5050 circa similar fifty 5048% of
- 12:55spread bets are going with Alabama, but Alabama's taking in
- 13:0075% of spread dollars, so 5050, but 75% of the money out in
- 13:06Vegas at a sharp book that caters to wise guys going with
- 13:09Alabama. So the first indicator is 5050
- 13:12line move to Bama. Second indicator is a sharp bet
- 13:15split at circa third indicator. Pop open Ken Palm our buddy.
- 13:20He has Michigan winning by eight points, 91 to 83.
- 13:24So I ask you this, if Ken Palm's got an 8 point game and you can
- 13:27get a 9 1/2, that sounds like a 1 1/2 point edge off the current
- 13:32price. Bama is also a dog who can score
- 13:34system match 92 points per game, so increasing the chances they
- 13:38can keep pace or backdoor cover. Last night, even though Arkansas
- 13:43dog who can score system match didn't come through, Illinois
- 13:46was a dog who can score system match and obviously won that
- 13:48game out right. So well, Bama went out right.
- 13:51You know any any, as Kevin Garnett once said, the great
- 13:53philosopher, anything's possible, but I'm just hoping
- 13:55they lose by 9 or less. But in addition, couple
- 13:59advantages for the Crimson Tide better believe it or not, they
- 14:01actually have the better offensive efficiency.
- 14:03You probably wouldn't expect that because Michigan is so
- 14:05good, but they are third in the country versus 6th in the
- 14:08country from Michigan. Crimson Tide have the better
- 14:11free throw shooting could be huge in that tight game. 41st
- 14:14versus 95th and the Crimson Tide commit fewer turnovers on
- 14:18offense. They take better care of the
- 14:19ball. 10th versus 164th for the Wolverines.
- 14:23Lastly, popped open Juice Reel and noticed that one of the Robo
- 14:28Jackson best bet picks tonight is on Alabama.
- 14:32So right there with the Robo Jackson indicator and then also
- 14:36we pop open rhythm and I have two Green Star recommended plays
- 14:40on Alabama. One is BMA plus 7.21 is BMA plus
- 14:447.5 S feels like Michigan's going to just roll here and they
- 14:47may I hope they don't, but they could.
- 14:50But lines going toward BMA. We have a great bet split at
- 14:54Circa on BMA dog who can score system match.
- 14:57Ken Palms got an 8 point game. Rhythms got about a 7 or 7 1/2
- 15:00point game, which again, one of those recommendations is a green
- 15:03star, which we had that green star on Illinois last night.
- 15:07And it's also a robo Jackson best bet pick, which tells me
- 15:09that the AI model from Juice Reel also likes Bama in the
- 15:14points. So strap up, strap in.
- 15:16We're going up against the David versus Goliath tonight.
- 15:19But David doesn't have to win this game.
- 15:21David just has to, you know, not get killed.
- 15:23Keep it close, keep that slingshot shooting the eye out
- 15:26of of Goliath. So first bit on the board from
- 15:28you guys, Alabama plus 9 1/2. Now I used an odds boost here.
- 15:33I jumped into FanDuel and Bama was plus 9 1/2 -, 115, but they
- 15:39got boosted for me plus 9 1/2 + 114.
- 15:43So again, take advantage of these odds.
- 15:45Boost if you can. Alabama plus 9 1/2.
- 15:48Dear God, keep it close. Second bed of the night,
- 15:51absolute banger. We have Mr. Tom Izzo against Mr.
- 15:56Hurley here. Michigan State in Connecticut,
- 15:589:45 PM Eastern Time. First tip for tonight.
- 16:02So Michigan State comes in 27 and seven on the year.
- 16:05They are the three seed just beat Louisville 77 to 69 in the
- 16:09second round, covered as a 5 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
- 16:13Meanwhile, Yukon comes in 31 and five.
- 16:15They are the two seed just took down UCLA 73 to 57 in the second
- 16:20round, covered as a 5 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
- 16:23So let me. See across the board here.
- 16:25Well this game opened Connecticut listed as a one
- 16:28point neutral site favorite. Very very short number here.
- 16:31I even saw a couple books open like pick them or even one book
- 16:35was Michigan State -1 but it's very clear regardless of the
- 16:38opener that this line is going toward the Huskies.
- 16:41Huskies have gone from -1 or a pick or plus one dog to fave to
- 16:45now -1 1/2. And not only are they moving up
- 16:49a half point at most shops, but they are juiced up -1 1/2 -, 115
- 16:54at quite a few shops. So not only is line moving, but
- 16:56you're having to pay a higher price, juice liability on
- 16:59Connecticut and even see a couple books up to -2 or even 1
- 17:02books at 2 1/2. So this line from open a
- 17:05current, it's always been moving toward UConn.
- 17:07First indicator here that sharps like the Huskies.
- 17:10Now you look at DraftKings, only 55% of bets are on UConn.
- 17:14So it's not like UConn is getting 80% of tickets.
- 17:17And you know, you're with the public here.
- 17:18Public is basically 5050. Very, very, very, very slight
- 17:22lean 55% on Yukon. Once again, Circa though, sharps
- 17:26out in the desert showing a really, really wise guy split
- 17:30here on Yukon. At Circa, Huskies are getting
- 17:3356% of spread bets, 88% of spread dollars.
- 17:37So a massive low bets, higher dollar split from the pros in
- 17:40the desert. Now you know me, I ain't going
- 17:44Yukon -1 1/2 - 2 - 2 1/2. Again, odds makers are telling
- 17:47you it could basically be a very, very tight game and we got
- 17:51to win this game if we win by 1 instead of lose a - 1 1/2 or
- 17:54push a - 2 or lose a 2 1/2. So I didn't go money line with
- 17:58Connecticut. Now I got the Huskies a few days
- 18:01ago at -135 I believe you can get the Huskies around -125 S
- 18:05shop around. But really not a bad money line
- 18:08price here. Now, Connecticut has the better
- 18:10effective field goal percentage, 34th versus 66th, better two
- 18:15point shooting percentage. So again, down low, 25th versus
- 18:1897th. Huskies hold their opponents to
- 18:21a better effective field goal percentage that make it harder
- 18:24for their opponent to score 8th versus 53rd and they force more
- 18:28turnovers on defense, 99th versus 200 and 97th.
- 18:32So dog to fave or short fave to bigger fave or pick them to
- 18:36fave, whatever you want to call it based on the opener, but I'm
- 18:39going to go Yukon money line. I did notice that once again,
- 18:43one of the best bet picks from Juice Reel Robo Jackson play is
- 18:46also on Yukon. I believe it -1 1/2.
- 18:50There's also a 23% sharp mush edge at Juice Reel on Yukon, so
- 18:5523% more of the sharper wiseguy or wise gal wagers are going
- 18:59with the Huskies. And I have all three of my
- 19:02rhythm models on Yukon, and I have one model which is Yukon
- 19:06-1.9, another model which is Yukon -2.3.
- 19:11So second bat of the night, let's go.
- 19:13Yukon got the Huskies -135 on the money line.
- 19:18Last bat of the night, 10:10 PM Eastern Time.
- 19:20Let's talk about Tennessee and Iowa State now.
- 19:24Tennessee comes in 24 and 11 on the year.
- 19:27They're the six seed, just took down Virginia 79 to 72 in the
- 19:31second round, did cover as a 1 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
- 19:35Meanwhile, Iowa State 29 and seven on the year.
- 19:37They are the two seed just dominated Kentucky 82 to 63 in
- 19:41the second round. Easily covered as a 5 1/2 point
- 19:44neutral site favorite. So we've seen across the market
- 19:47here. Well, this game opened with Iowa
- 19:50State listed around a four point neutral site favorite and the
- 19:53public says Cyclones all freaking day.
- 19:57Right now, 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are going with the
- 20:01Cyclones. What's interesting though is
- 20:05Iowa State open around -4 at most shops.
- 20:08Now that heavy betting around 7 out of 10 tickets did push a
- 20:11couple books up to -4 1/2. But this kind of reminds me of
- 20:14the Illinois game yesterday where the line early went
- 20:18toward. Houston, but then started to
- 20:20really come back down toward the contrarian dog Illinois.
- 20:23And that's kind of what we're seeing here because there are a
- 20:26couple books that are still -4 1/2 Iowa State, but a lot of
- 20:30those four and a halfs are down to four.
- 20:32And some of those books are actually down to 3 1/2.
- 20:34So it's kind of becoming a line freeze or even a quasi reverse
- 20:38line move play where everyone and their mother is on Iowa
- 20:40State, but the lines kind of coming back down toward
- 20:43Tennessee. Now, even if you take away that
- 20:46line freezer RLM, you know, we have Tennessee just in an epic
- 20:49contrarian opportunity here because only what was it 31% of
- 20:55spread bets at DraftKings are taking the Vols plus the points.
- 20:58So it's a 1010 game. Late night.
- 21:00It's going to be the most heavily bet based on the timing
- 21:02of it because there's more time for people to bet on this game.
- 21:05And this is the chase game, basically late night where if
- 21:08the public's doing well, they're they'll double down, triple down
- 21:11on this game. And if they're getting rolled,
- 21:13they'll they'll chase and try to get it back on this game.
- 21:16But anyway, just a a great contrarian opportunity to fade
- 21:19the drunk guys at the bar on a Friday night who are hammering
- 21:22Iowa State and go the other way and take Tennessee as the
- 21:25contrarian play. Now, Ken Palm has Iowa State
- 21:29winning by 4 points. So here's the key.
- 21:31Guys got to get the 4 1/2. Now, if you look across the
- 21:34board, this line is kind of all over the place because there's
- 21:38some four and a halfs, there's some fours, there's some three
- 21:41and a halfs. I got plus 4 1/2 -, 115.
- 21:45You can get that right now it looks like at Bally Bet or the
- 21:48Score, Caesars, DraftKings, but Fanatics is down to four and Bet
- 21:54MGM and FanDuel are down to 3 1/2.
- 21:56So definitely got to get the best number here.
- 21:58It would be nice if Tennessee won the game outright, but still
- 22:02we got to protect ourselves. You can still get that 4 1/2,
- 22:05which is my play now. Tennessee has some advantages,
- 22:07better offensive rebound percentage.
- 22:09So put backs extra, extra opportunities first in the
- 22:13country actually at offensive rebound percentage versus 35th
- 22:17for Iowa State. Tennessee has the better free
- 22:19throw shooting. 281st in the country doesn't sound great, but
- 22:23believe it or not, Iowa State, as great as they are, they rank
- 22:25300 and 30th and free throw percentage.
- 22:28Tennessee holds their opponents to a better effective field goal
- 22:30percentage, 34th versus 85th and they limit their opponents to a
- 22:34better three-point shooting percentage.
- 22:36Basically they make it harder on their opponents to make threes.
- 22:39They ranked 19th versus 63rd. Lastly, popped open juice reel.
- 22:44This isn't a Robo Jackson best bet pick on Tennessee, but there
- 22:47is a 19% sharp mush edge on the balls and pop open rhythm.
- 22:52And all three of my rhythm recommendations for my three
- 22:55different models are saying take Tennessee plus the points and
- 22:59rhythm has Tennessee plus 3.1. So if you can still get that 4
- 23:031/2, we got a green star. Tennessee 3.1 sounds like value
- 23:07to me. So I'm going balls plus 4 1/2.
- 23:10So Alabama plus 9 1/2, Yukon money line, Tennessee plus 4
- 23:161/2. Let's try to get 2 out of those
- 23:18three and finish off the week on a winning night, winning note.
- 23:21So that about does it for episode 479 of the All Systems
- 23:25Go Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
- 23:28This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
- 23:30always start first by saying thank you.
- 23:32Thank you for tuning in, thank you for listening, thank you for
- 23:35grinding in the arena with me every single day to the UPS and
- 23:38the downs, the good and the bad, the hot streaks, the cold
- 23:40streaks, the incredible wins, the terrible bad beats.
- 23:43Again, just like in life, you got good days and bad days.
- 23:46But we show up every day with a positive attitude, cautious but
- 23:51disciplined. We know it's a hard market to
- 23:53beat on a daily basis. We're searching for sharp
- 23:56ticket, sharp plays every day that can catch some tickets.
- 23:59And I'm very honored to host this pod.
- 24:01And I really appreciate you guys tuning in.
- 24:03So if you'd like to help me grow this podcast, couple easy things
- 24:06you can do to make my day. Give this podcast a five star
- 24:09review on Spotify or iTunes. Leave a nice comment if you feel
- 24:13so inclined under the review section.
- 24:16Recommend the pod to a friend. Click the follow button.
- 24:18That way you get a pop up alert as soon as the pod drops each
- 24:21day. Or retweet the pod when I put it
- 24:25out on Twitter every afternoon at Josh under score Insights.
- 24:28Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting breakdown,
- 24:32data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, focusing on line
- 24:35movement, bet split system matches, focusing on what the
- 24:37numbers are saying, not what our gut and our bias is telling us.
- 24:41I like that Saint John's game. You know my gut, my bias tells
- 24:44me I want to watch Saint John's with my wife and my daughter
- 24:48because my wife went to Saint John's.
- 24:50But is that a sharp reason for me to bet it?
- 24:51No, it's not. So we got a bet with our head
- 24:54and not our heart. And if you'd like to learn more
- 24:57about this style of betting, guess what?
- 24:58I've written two books. I'm already thinking about my
- 25:01third one. I'm thinking about writing about
- 25:02either college hoops or MLB, but who knows, That'll be probably
- 25:06four or five years from now. But anyway, if you want to grab
- 25:09a copy of either of my two books, all you got to do is go
- 25:12to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
- 25:15Betting or the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
- 25:17Grab one or both of my books, bring them the sports book.
- 25:20I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
- 25:22and sweat some games together. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
- 25:26and Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
- 25:28apps. They help me win.
- 25:29They're going to help you win. Look no further than yesterday
- 25:32where we had a sharp mush edge on Iowa that came through and we
- 25:38also had a really good Rhythm Green Star play on Illinois that
- 25:41came through. So Juice Real Rhythm 2 great
- 25:45sports betting apps that basically are cherries on top to
- 25:48give you more confidence in a play or kind of talk you out of
- 25:51a bad pick or talk you into a good one.
- 25:54But if you'd like to download both of those apps with Rhythm,
- 25:57you're going to get the AI backed models and predictions
- 25:59for game bets and player props. With Juice Reel, so many great
- 26:02features, you'll be able to sync up your sports books, get a
- 26:05running report card of your action, as well as getting the
- 26:08Robo Jackson best bet pick sharp mush indicators, arbitrage
- 26:11plays, shop for the best line futures.
- 26:13And of course, as I mentioned before, if you want to support
- 26:16the pod, it's free tip tip your bartender, tip your podcast
- 26:19toast in the form of signing up for those $4.99 a week best bets
- 26:24on Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
- 26:26Juice Reel, give them both a five star review in the App
- 26:28Store. Next, do you have a live odds
- 26:31page? Well, if you don't, you need
- 26:33one. You got to be able to track the
- 26:34market in real time. The market is constantly moving
- 26:36and evolving and changing. You got to know the up to date
- 26:39numbers. You also got to be able to
- 26:41compare the open line to the current line, see which
- 26:43direction the line is moved, pull up the line history, always
- 26:46shop for the best price. Find the book still giving you
- 26:49Tennessee Plus 4. 1/2 on every other book is 4/3 and 1/2.
- 26:53But the best live odds page around is called Odds Logic.
- 26:56So if you'd like to give it a shot, you can go to this special
- 26:59link. It'll give you a 7 day free
- 27:00trial to test it out, make sure you like it.
- 27:02It's also going to give you 25% off your first month.
- 27:05And that link is oddslogic.com/josh 123.
- 27:11Lastly, have you heard about Profit XI have teamed up with
- 27:15Profit XI am now a proud affiliate of Profit X Profit X
- 27:19is a sports betting exchange and the beauty of a sports betting
- 27:22exchange is that you're going to get better prices, better juice
- 27:26because you're going up against other betters and not the greedy
- 27:28sports books who will gouge us with -110 -. 1 twenties I.
- 27:33Also, if you win, you won't get limited.
- 27:35And if you find these good numbers, you can basically win
- 27:38at a a lower rate than you would at a sports book, but still make
- 27:41money because you're paying less juice.
- 27:43So if you'd like to give profit XA shot, all you got to do is
- 27:47download the profit X app. And when you fund your account,
- 27:50put in the promo code Josh Josh and they'll tack on a 20%
- 27:55deposit match based on whatever you put in.
- 27:57So if you put in 100 bucks, they're going to add on 20 extra
- 28:00bucks. You can again download Profit X
- 28:02and hopefully turn a profit. So that about does it for
- 28:05episode 479 of the ASG Pod on a big Friday.
- 28:09As always, guys, if reminder, whether I see you at the Borgata
- 28:13in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
- 28:16Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
- 28:19Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield or
- 28:22the Nash in my neck of the woods on the border of Massachusetts
- 28:25and New Hampshire are out in the desert where the true grinders
- 28:28get down or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the
- 28:31lowest true as possible is found at the South Point.
- 28:33Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
- 28:36swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
- 28:38Circa, you're going to walk up to me.
- 28:39You're going to show me a Red Sox ticket, an Illinois ticket,
- 28:43and then Iowa ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
- 28:46you. We'll post about the book.
- 28:48So sharp contrarian plays all night long.
- 28:50So as always, guys, coming off a three and two or two and three,
- 28:53A5 and O or an O and 5A3 and a four and one or a one and four.
- 28:57Whether we're coming off a winning night, a losing night, a
- 28:59great night, a terrible night, a hot streak, a cold streak again,
- 29:03we just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint
- 29:06discipline with our bankroll management, flat betting.
- 29:09And if we can just basically get down on the games that check off
- 29:12our boxes and and avoid the games that don't, which you
- 29:15might know by now means that we're looking for games that are
- 29:17against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet
- 29:20and avoid parlays. If we can do that, we're going
- 29:23to be successful sports bettors. So hope everyone has a great
- 29:26Friday and an even better weekend.
- 29:28Reminder over the weekend. Look out for the sharp report
- 29:30that are rate for visen.com. You can always follow me on
- 29:32Twitter at Josh under score insights.
- 29:34That's where I always post it. And you can also again get those
- 29:37ASG best bet picks on Juice Real for 5 bucks a week.
- 29:41I hope everyone has a great Friday.
- 29:43Have a fantastic weekend, and then we'll be right back at it
- 29:46on Monday. That'll be episode 480 of the
- 29:49all systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 29:53Good luck, everybody, and I'll see you on Monday.
- 29:56Good luck.