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Sep 21 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260921 The September 21, 2026, edition of the *Closing Market Report*, hosted by Todd Gleason, covers agricultural trade, station fundraising, and weather forecasts. Agricultural economist Ben Brown details the potential market implications of an upcoming meeting in Washington, D.C., between Presidents Trump and Xi, analyzing the fulfillment of past US-China trade commitments and the effects of high global energy and fertilizer prices on domestic and international grain production. Gleason follows with an appeal for listener donations during Illinois Public Media's fall fund drive to support the station's agricultural programming. Shifting to policy, Gleason highlights the row crop and livestock sectors' reliance on immigrant labor, shares a personal anecdote regarding citizenship documentation struggles for an international adoptee, and urges Congress to enact meaningful immigration reform. To conclude the program, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics provides a weather update, noting that enhanced monsoonal moisture is benefiting winter wheat planting in the Plains, highlighting a notably quiet Atlantic hurricane season, and predicting persistent wet conditions that will delay the harvest across Iowa. 00:26 Ag Markets with Ben Brown, University of Missouri 11:50 Make a Pledge Today @ 217-244-9455 or willgive.org 13:01 Immigration 16:16 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It’s the 21st day of September 2026. I’m Todd Gleason. President Xi will be in Washington, D.C. by the end of the week. Commodities rallied; soybeans were up 24 cents, and corn was up 15 cents. It’s also our fall fund drive. Dial in support now at 217–244–9455. 00:26 Ag Markets with Ben Brown, University of Missouri Todd Gleason: Ben Brown, agricultural economist with the University of Missouri Extension and FAPRI (the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) located in Columbia, now joins us to talk about the marketplace. Hi Ben, thank you for being with us again. Let’s begin with the end-of-the-week meeting to take place this week between Presidents Trump and Xi, and what might be entailed there. But I want to go back to last year to begin with, when an agreement of some sort was forged about agricultural purchases that China would be making over the ensuing year. It’s not clear whether it was a calendar year or a marketing year because this took place in the fall, though they always tend to say calendar year sometimes. I guess what I want to know is, does it matter whether it was a calendar or marketing year, and have the Chinese fulfilled portions of the agreement? Ben Brown: President Xi of China is expected, at least currently, to come to the US this week. I put in there the asterisk of “expected” because there have been quite a bit of rumblings about this potential meeting getting delayed or pushed back again. But as of right now, this morning that we’re talking, the meeting is still happening and we do expect President Xi to arrive in the US. We’ll see what happens. The talking points for the meeting have been released. The two administrations are supposed to talk about AI development in the world, which has certainly hit the news a lot here lately, and the two economies—both the US and China—have a lot at stake in both of those markets. Talk a little bit about the global rise in oil and working to figure out some type of resolution to the Middle East is expected to be on the agenda. And then also, as you mentioned, one of the other talking points is this notion of increased trade between the two countries, which earlier this year there was an announcement that there would be a board of trade set up to help facilitate discussions. So those are the released talking points that we know of so far. You correctly identified the trade agreement that was struck last October in 2025, that also came out of one of these meetings right after President Trump and President Xi met. There was this announcement that they had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons the first year, and then 25 million metric tons the next three years. And there’s always been a lot of uncertainty around that deal. I’m not singling out this one deal in particular because I would say that from my perspective, any of these purchase commitment deals that are included in any trade deal—whether it’s the US or with China or with other countries—all of them are lacking details. All of them are hard to enforce, and there is some level of broad agreement between the two countries that must be maintained to be able to go into fruition. And so I guess I would just answer your comments by saying that all of these purchase commitments have a tendency to be headline-driven. And whichever way the headlines are moving at that moment is kind of what’s impacting markets. And so we do have a loose commitment from China from last October. We also got another one here this past May of 2026 for $17 billion of non-soybean ag purchases, and that’s the one that I think I’m expecting the most attention to as the two countries meet this week. Todd Gleason: It seems that the corn market might be thinking about that today, in fact. Ben Brown: I do think that’s the area, at least from my perspective, where there is room for the two countries to work together on some type of trade framework. They’ve got this announcement out there. We certainly could send them soybean meal, we could send them corn, we could send them ethanol. Those are all products that would fit into their market at the current point. We have supplies to send, and so that’s where my attention would be at the moment. Todd Gleason: Of the 17 billion they have purchased, how much? I think I saw 3.9 billion at some point? Ben Brown: Yeah, so 3.9 billion, it’s a full mixture of different products. That would include hardwoods and forestry products, it also includes food and beverage products as well, including alcoholic beverages. So it includes a wide range of products, but if they are serious—and I’m not trying to throw the word “if” in there to make any type of political projection here, I would just say if they are committed to filling the $17 billion worth of non-soybean ag purchases, I do think eventually it’s going to have to include some corn and corn products, whether that be dried distillers grains, ethanol, or raw corn. Todd Gleason: So the marketplace is excited about that today, and the “if” is the big thing. That’s all about agreements, handshake deals that have already been made. What are your expectations for this week? Ben Brown: I don’t know if I’m expecting anything new necessarily, at least as it relates to agriculture. I think much of the leverage, if any negotiating leverage is worked out between the two parties, I do think it’ll be concentrated in two fronts: the conflict in Iran, and then also the race of AI (however you want to look at that) and agreeing to some type of guardrails potentially. Although again, it’s yet to be determined what actual enforcement mechanisms exist in any of these loose handshake agreements. But those would be the two areas where I think that we would probably see some headlines and news coming out of. I’m not sure I’m expecting a whole lot on the agriculture front besides maybe a recommitment to the two agreements that we’ve already talked about. I think any lack of mention of those two agreements and reinforcement that they are still aware of and paying attention to, and just a general acknowledgment… as long as they’re acknowledged I think the market will continue to be supportive. If there’s no acknowledgment, we could be in for a sell-off in both corn and soybean markets that would probably pull others down too, but definitely those two. Todd Gleason: Tell me about the driving forces in the marketplaces, corn and soybeans, today. Ben Brown: Yeah, so high energy prices across the board, whether that be diesel fuel or the inputs used to produce fertilizer, continue I think to provide some support to our feed grain and oil seeds. Corn and soybeans largely are a fuel crop at this point; they’re very correlated with energy markets. There’s a number of reasons for that, and so as we see energy prices rise, we also see the correlation with grain and oilseed markets as well. It’s interesting, there’s been a lot of talk here in 2026 about the competitiveness of US-based agriculture relative to other countries around the world. And sometimes I think we forget that, yes, we’re facing high input costs here in the US this year in ’26 due to global challenges, but so is everybody else around the world. And the US is actually maybe a little bit more insulated to handle that, and so this rise that we’ve seen in global fertilizer and global oil, all those macroeconomic factors, higher interest rates across the globe (not just here in the US), all those things actually improve our competitiveness in the global marketplace. And so, as this continues, we’re entering into the pre-purchase window for 2027 here in the US. We’re making input decisions in a high-cost environment. Brazil, the Southern Hemisphere, is getting ready to actually utilize whatever inputs they have and have been able to purchase. And so I do think we’re going to see some restrictions elsewhere in the world as it relates to fertilizer and energy markets that could actually… I’m expecting some type of reduction in global feed grain production because of this. We haven’t seen the same supply response to the same magnitude here in the US for a number of different factors. Our infrastructure is just a little bit better, we’ve got a little bit stronger of a federal safety net. So there’s not as much of a response, however we do tend to see responses elsewhere in the global market and I think that’s going to improve our competitiveness and also provide us opportunities to increase our export potential into 2027 as well. Todd Gleason: And yet, given that, and you’ll have to forgive me I don’t quite remember the percentage for the full marketing year for production for corn out of Brazil from CONAB last week. But the first crop corn, 10%… almost an 11% increase in production. I think it was 3.7 for all three corn crops that they might produce. Do you think that will come to fruition? And that first crop is actually usually southern, so that’s not a 120-bushel crop, that’s a competitive crop to what the US would produce in yield. Does that cause an issue? Ben Brown: Well, the first thing I would say is many of these estimates that come out of CONAB at this point of the year are trend adjustments. They’re based on relationships over time, very similar to the US and how we start with trendline yields and just kind of some high-level assumptions about acreage. Any model is hard to utilize when we have big shocks like this. And so I guess I’m not trying to sow doubt with the CONAB numbers, I would just simply say that they’re largely ignoring the rise in energy and fertilizer prices that we’ve seen. And when you do that, yeah, you get a production increase like what we’ve seen the last couple years. When you take them into account, what you see is a drop. And so I do think eventually we will see CONAB’s estimates of production as we work our way through the growing season come lower, just without any changes in weather, once we take into account some of these behavioral shifts. That’s my expectation as we move forward. You are correct, the first crop corn is mostly grown in southern Brazil, then the 75% of their corn production that’s in their second crop comes after they plant soybeans. And so, when that’s harvested in January, that’s when they start planting corn. We’ll see if there is aggressive implanting second crop corn in 2027 as what the CONAB projections currently estimate. I have my doubts. Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much, Ben. We appreciate it. Ben Brown: Thanks, Todd. Todd Gleason: That’s Ben Brown from the University of Missouri. He is just one of a whole series of analysts that we have on each and every business day of the year to talk about markets and weather. 11:50 Make a Pledge Today @ 217–244–9455 or willgive.org Todd Gleason: If this makes a difference to your day, if it helps your understanding of grain flow across the planet and even in your localized area, I hope that you will take some time right now during this first of our four days of fall fund drive to make a pledge of support for the ag programming that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. The analysts and I all work very hard to provide you with the best of information. If it makes a difference, if it helps you make marketing decisions, then please, please, please, please dial in right now at 217–244–9455. I like the $120 level, or you can go to willgive.org. That’s w-i-l-l-g-i-v-e.org, and make that pledge of support. Either way, put in the comments section or tell the person you’re talking to “in support of agriculture”, and thank you. 13:01 Immigration Todd Gleason: Today I want to address immigration in a couple of different ways. I suppose many farmers, surprisingly even row crop farmers, are aware of immigrants working on their behalves. They’re here legally, of course, but only temporarily for the growing season. They return home to their own farms in our offseason. Other skilled labor filling part-time jobs that require full 7 days per week commitment. Without these laborers, farmers… it would be far harder to care for the corn and soybean crops right here in Illinois. I do not think there are many in this row crop category, but certainly they help to drive our rural economies. The livestock sector is an entirely different subject where it requires thousands to fill jobs. It’s pretty clear as a white American that our immigrant ancestors were the ones working the lots and the lines. They came to America for the opportunity to fill jobs Americans even then did not really want. The Irish, the Polish, the Germans, the Chinese too, on the west coast working to build our railways. Congress (not the President, but Congress) needs to fix this. It, and I mean the royal it, has used immigration for far too long as a scapegoat. It is convenient not to have fixed. Presidents, many presidents, have done it temporarily but made no real attempt to have Congress write laws to address the issue. Well, the closest we’ve come recently was the bipartisan Senate border security bill of 2024. It has not returned. The absence of genuinely new immigration laws in the United States has laid bare our flaws as a nation made up of immigrants. And it can be scary. We’ve all seen the raids, the shootings, the fleeing, the protesting. Here’s a silent one: sometime in the 1990s, a little one was adopted from overseas. Now this baby grew up in the United States. It wasn’t until they applied to renew their passport that a problem arose. The original paperwork was not there or in order. Mom: So, having immigration the way it is now, we consulted an immigration lawyer and he went through the process of trying to find the file information from his case. We had a number, we had a date, but we were told by immigration that they could not find the file, and they also told us that sometimes but not very often the files get lost. Todd Gleason: It took months, but the citizenship record was finally corrected. Still today, a bone-chilling fear remains. What if? What if the US government decides to send me back to a place I’ve never known? To a place I have no real family or even a way to find them. A place I’m not returning to. A place I’m not going to. What if I’m forced out of a place I call home? Congress can fix it. Congress should fix it. 16:16 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai Todd Gleason: Let’s take some time to explore the growing regions across the planet and the weather therein. Mark Russo is here. He is with EverStream Analytics. Hello Mark, thanks for being with us. Mark Russo: Hi there, Todd. Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: Start in the western part of the United States. We’ll get to the cool weather here, but tell me about the wet weather that they have been having and maybe will continue to have in parts of that world. Mark Russo: Yeah, we’ve seen very active conditions of late develop across the Southwest and extending into the Plains region, including the hard red winter wheat acreage from the central Plains down through the southern Plains. In fact, the rains have increased in coverage here of late and have become heavier in places such as Kansas, Colorado, and down through the Texas Panhandle. And a lot of this is being driven by monsoonal moisture that has become enhanced across the Southwest and Mexico that’s feeding into the Plains, which is also tied to our super El Niño and the incredible warmth of ocean water temperatures there across the central and eastern Pacific. So that has been part of the fuel for this enhanced moisture. And for the Plains hard red winter wheat belt, the timing of these rains is very, very good given that the past couple of months have been very hot and dry. That’s depleted topsoil moisture, and now with planting of winter wheat going on, these rains are significantly boosting soil moisture at the appropriate time. Todd Gleason: Monsoonal weather or monsoons are not something we typically talk about in the United States. Why is that the case now? Mark Russo: Just a unique situation here for this season. The Southwest monsoon is just part of the atmospheric circulation across North America, and typically the monsoonal rains move from Mexico into the desert Southwest in July and then continue August and into September. But this year they’re lasting a little bit longer, which is again likely part of it is due to our super El Niño. But also part of it is due to with this very intense ridging of high pressure that we’ve seen of late in the south-central US, that has also led to all this abundant monsoonal moisture then eventually flowing further north and east and into parts of the central and northern Midwest as we’ve seen here of late. Todd Gleason: Can you take up the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean? Oftentimes at this time of year we think about many hurricanes that might be coming in across Florida, maybe into the Gulf Coast at some point, and then turning and making their way up the Mississippi and then the Ohio Valley. Is there a lack thereof? Mark Russo: Yeah, there certainly is a lack thereof. It’s been that way much of the season. Again, there’s been a few minor systems in the northern Gulf earlier in the season, but right now it’s quiet. There is Tropical Storm Fay in the middle of the Atlantic that’s going to die out and not impact any kind of land areas. There’s been some hints in computer model guidance that next week there could be some moisture in the Gulf of Mexico that pushes up northward. If that does develop or if we do see that moisture, we don’t think it’s going to become any kind of, like, big hurricane or anything that would be either a disruptor for New Orleans or the Port of New Orleans, or even result in any kind of huge area of widespread rains moving up all into the Midwest. If anything here, any additional moisture of note would come into the area actually from the eastern Pacific and remnants of hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. Todd Gleason: So the question really was based on the idea of that the bulk of the river flow south of the convergence of the Ohio and the Mississippi in southern Illinois is from the Ohio River. And I’m wondering if there are some issues that could be related to lack of water flow in the lower Mississippi River at some point? Mark Russo: We’ve been starting to get close here. In fact, over the past week or so we have seen some drops in water levels like at Cairo and also down through Memphis. But with some of these rains over the weekend, we’ve begun to see now a rebound in levels. And with the forecast coming up, especially for the western part of the Midwest, it’s looking pretty active here, and even some rains returning to the Delta or the southern part of the Mississippi River Valley. So right now we are not expecting any kind of significant drop in river levels to those restriction levels here for barges and overall movement of barges on the river system. Still is something to watch, but with the recent increase in rains, that has certainly helped things here of late. Todd Gleason: Cooler weather across the bulk of the Midwest, a little rainfall too for the coming week in really the beginning of harvest in earnest? Mark Russo: Yeah, from a temperature standpoint, there is going to be more variability in readings coming up over the next couple of weeks that over time will average out to be close to seasonal norms of what we’ve seen in the past 10 years. From a rainfall standpoint, what we’re watching is some of the recent very heavy rainfall in Illinois and Iowa. While Illinois does see some decrease in activity coming up over the next week to 10 days, Iowa is not going to see much in the way of dry weather over the next couple of weeks. And so, in fact, the pattern has trended wetter for that area looking out over the next couple of weeks. And with harvesting just beginning across that area, that’s going to keep things on the slow side in and around Iowa and some of the adjacent states there. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it, Mark. Mark Russo: You’re welcome, Todd. Todd Gleason: Mark Russo is with EverStream Analytics and helped us to wrap up this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Don’t forget to dial in at 217–244–9455 with that pledge of support right now, or at willgive.org online. I’m Todd Gleason.