Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 7/24/2026 | Wheat Shock and AI Market Signals

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 7/24/2026 | Wheat Shock and AI Market Signals · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome back to AgSquawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here with AgBull Media.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Today we're going to talk about what's been happening in the price of wheat, and there's some new legislation regarding AI that might change how things are done here in the future.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at where the livestock market closed yesterday, up day green across the board.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle closed at$2.25.40 up$2.20.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Similar story in feeder cattle up$2.60 at$3.43.78.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Hogs even saw an upward change and actually a pretty committed change in one direction for the first time after a couple of days of kind of unchanged territory.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: They were up 70 cents at 102.15.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: The weather discussion is going to be very interesting today because we've seen some kind of black swan weather events that we don't normally see in late July.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Today is the last cool day of this cool breeze of weather that we've seen through the corn belt before the heat cranks on.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: But since this cold weather's been here, we've seen some record low temperatures throughout the country.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: Dubuque was 52 degrees.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Youngstown was at a record 47 degrees Fahrenheit.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's absolutely crazy for this time of year to think that you're only 15 degrees away from freezing.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: It is pretty dang wild in July.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: The ring of fire severe weather setup targets the northern and northeastern corn belt this weekend.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's what Mr.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Craig Solberg talks about when he talks about his ridge rider effects that models sometimes don't necessarily predict super accurately.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: So look out for kind of scattered severe storms in the northern and northeastern corn belt.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Today we're going to have some wheat discussion because the wheat market has gone up super hard and super fast here recently.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat made new highs as the Black Sea as conflict escalated in the Black Sea, excuse me.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: We also saw some limited trading, a complete shutdown in the Azov Sea.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: We talked about that just a few days ago.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: Combine that with the fact right now the US, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Argentina all have record low supplies.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: It makes it an interesting market because we don't necessarily have the same demand for wheat products that we did, especially now is just consumer sentiment with regards to the protein-centric diet that we have now with a lack of gluten demand that we had, you know, 20, 30 years ago.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, when simple supply and demand says when we have record low supplies, the price still needs to go up, and that's what we've been seeing recently.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: On to the Catalon feed report that comes out this afternoon.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: I know I've had this slide on for a couple days.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: This will be a very interesting report to read because it every time we have one of these, the market swings in some sort of direction or has a telltale for the month to come.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: The one thing I'd like to throw out there, the USDA provides this report, and it can be helpful at times, but it's not the Bible.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Not sometimes half of the country doesn't even part, most of the time, I should say, half of the country does not even participate in these surveys because there's no incentive.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Not to mention the data collection principles the USDA uses are kind of archaic.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: I still get called every month for cattle on feed reports for feed yards that I haven't worked at since I was in high school.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: So take that into account as you read the numbers that come out today.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: They are the best estimate that we have right now to determine where our national inventory sits, but it's not end-all be all.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: But if you like breaking down the Catalon Feed Report as soon as it comes out, when it comes out, I was like, the first thing that I do, I'm not a super fast reader.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: It takes me just a little bit of time to digest all the data.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: I download the PDF, I throw it in an AI, I have it generate a three-sentence summary of what's big, what's happening, watch the market, then go back and read the data just a little bit more.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: You know, love, hate, love or hate AI.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: I mean the the jury's still out on whether what what we should say here as agriculturalists, but Amazon is the first one to kind of crack down on the use of AI image after the New York legislation comes out.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: This comes from CNBC and our sponsors, Trade the News.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon is requiring third-party sellers to label any photos or videos that feature AI-generated people.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Very strange there, but the New York law that mandates this mandates the companies disclose when an ad includes a synthetic performer, is the terminology that they use.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Which maybe to means that we'll see a demand, or you know, the market will be forced its hand to use actual actors and um actors and actresses in actual art and photography and media like that again.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know about you guys.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm kind of tired of seeing the AI-generated ads on TV just because they're not as exciting as the other ones.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: But how this affects things on down the line in other industries will be very interesting.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: So I figured, you know, this maybe isn't trading news, but I think it's general market news that could affect other industries on down the line.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what we have on the economic calendar today.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: The SP Global Manufacturing and Services PMI comes out at 8 45 a.m.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: New home sales at 9.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: 2 p.m., what I've been alluding to, the cattle on feed and cattle inventory comes out.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: And the cold storage also comes out at that same time.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Luckily, it's after the close, but make sure and pay attention to that report and read it before we open up again on Monday on the cattle side of things.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to divert your attention towards Mr.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson with Ag Squawk PM.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: He has on a host of guests every single week, a fresh new one every day.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: It should be really exciting, this one that he has this afternoon.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: I know that I'm certainly looking forward to it to it.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure and catch him there.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you guys today.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching and thanks for listening.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: If you have any questions or any comments, we'd love to hear them.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: Go ahead and email us.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Our emails are linked below, as well as all of our social medias where you can find us, comment, and message all the time.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love hearing back feedback from all of you guys.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for today.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'll talk to you guys on Monday.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: I mean I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.