Latest / The Capitalism and Freedom in the Twenty-First Century Podcast / Why Does Europe Struggle with Innovation? With Luis Garicano | Hoover Institution
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- 0:09- This is the Capitalism and Freedom
- 0:10in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast
- 0:13of the Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working group,
- 0:15where we talk about economics, markets, and public policy.
- 0:18I'm Jon Hartley, your host today.
- 0:19My guest is Luis Garicano, who is a Spanish economist,
- 0:22a professor of public policy at the London School
- 0:24of Economics, and a former European member
- 0:26of Parliament from Spain.
- 0:27Thanks for Dr. Thanking you so much, Louis, for joining us
- 0:30and coming on the podcast.
- 0:32It's a real honor to have you on.
- 0:33- Hi. It's my honor, I'm a big fan of the, of the program
- 0:36and having, having you and treating some episodes,
- 0:39and I, I remember liking a lot, the Levitt,
- 0:42the Levitt interview, which I, I learned a lot from.
- 0:45- Yeah. Well, well, thank you so much for, for,
- 0:47for commenting on on past,
- 0:50on talking about past episodes really, Aaron, have you on
- 0:53and, and all your experience, you know, both in, in academia
- 0:58and, and in policy.
- 1:00It's very rare to have someone
- 1:02who is both saying these things as an academic economist
- 1:06and also serving in government, working on regulation,
- 1:11particularly a place like Europe where, you know,
- 1:15Europe's I think certainly fallen behind and,
- 1:17and has had to deal with overbearing regulation,
- 1:20certainly in the past couple of decades or so.
- 1:23I think that's shown, shown up a lot in, in Europe's growth.
- 1:26I wanna start with your personal origin.
- 1:27So you grew up in Spain and,
- 1:30and you came to the University of Chicago
- 1:31for graduate school where you say under Sure wind rose
- 1:34and I mean, tell us about your formative years, you know,
- 1:36how you first got interested in economics
- 1:38and how you went from Spain to Chicago.
- 1:41- So I I I, I was, you know,
- 1:44I grew up in Spain when there was 22% employment was the
- 1:48norm when I was a kid, and that was a big economic crisis.
- 1:51So like many people who, who study economics,
- 1:55I was fascinated by why could this happen?
- 1:58Why couldn't an economy not generate
- 1:59employment and what was going on?
- 2:01We had many years of very, very high employment.
- 2:03Even now we are highest unemployment in Europe.
- 2:06And so I studied economics.
- 2:07The teaching was kind of mediocre at the University
- 2:09of a Elite where I was studying except
- 2:11for one Professor SA Minero, who was, who was great
- 2:14and he inspired me to,
- 2:15to really enjoy it and really like it.
- 2:17He was doing, among others a history
- 2:19of economic thought class, which I think now is missing.
- 2:21He taught from a Mark blog book.
- 2:23I don't know if you know it, John, no.
- 2:25Economic Theory in Retrospect.
- 2:27It's a book that explains it with supply and demand
- 2:30and current economics.
- 2:31It explains you the, the what the fear of Ricardo means.
- 2:35How is the demand curve, how is the supply curve?
- 2:37What, what does Mark's theory and the what assumptions.
- 2:39It was really interesting. And so I learned
- 2:42that and I enjoyed it.
- 2:43I still went the policy side at the time I went
- 2:46to the College of Europe in Bruce, which was the kind
- 2:48of the training school for, for European bureaucrats.
- 2:51I went to the commission to work as a
- 2:55civil servant working on the, on eurostat,
- 2:58on the consumer price index
- 2:59to harmonize all the price indexes for the Euro.
- 3:02I left pretty bored and disappointed
- 3:05after that year in, in the statistical office, I was,
- 3:09I was amused and sudden that that's the,
- 3:11that job is still going on.
- 3:13They haven't still harmonized that bit.
- 3:15So I'm happy I left those 30 years could have been much less
- 3:18productive and, and, and,
- 3:21and I, I had been left with this idea that I wanted
- 3:23to do economics and I applied to Chicago.
- 3:26It was a, an application that,
- 3:31that I I'm not really proud of in the sense
- 3:34that it was just like, it was the year of the Euro
- 3:36and I said I wanted to use monetary policy in Central Bank
- 3:39independence, which, I mean, it's a big topic, but,
- 3:41but it was not a topic that really, I think was,
- 3:46I guess you could have given it the rules
- 3:47for some discretion treatment,
- 3:48but it wasn't really a research from TA topic.
- 3:51And I was accepted.
- 3:54I was, I was a TA of, it was, it was the Great years
- 3:57of Chicago, you, you remember those, those years
- 4:00where Chicago was, was all the eight ideas
- 4:02were coming out of there.
- 4:03Chicago was getting over award prices every year.
- 4:06Lucas Becker, Heckman Hanson,
- 4:10Fogel Miller, all those people.
- 4:12I didn't get classes for me and Fog Fogal,
- 4:14but everybody else was teaching in the core.
- 4:17Our core was, was amazing.
- 4:19I remember was Becker Rosen Shaman for the first,
- 4:22for the micro, for the micro.
- 4:23It was like Coran Luas
- 4:27Hanson for the Econom metrics.
- 4:29Heman, I mean second year
- 4:31- Royal High at the Chicago school.
- 4:32Really right there in that yeah,
- 4:33that period in the nineties.
- 4:35Yeah. It, it's, it's amazing.
- 4:36I mean, and to have been there, I mean, I, I came only,
- 4:40I mean maybe about 10, 15 years later,
- 4:42and even then it was still, there was quite a bit of that
- 4:46that that left and I mean sure.
- 4:49Warren Rosen's just amazing. Right.
- 4:51And for those I think that aren't familiar with the work
- 4:52of Sherwin Rosen, you know, he's done so,
- 4:56so much in the area of organizational economics firms
- 4:59and the whole concept of spatial equilibrium, you know,
- 5:02the really the, the Rosen robot model is,
- 5:05or the canonical model of spatial equilibrium, you know,
- 5:09we think about, you know, why is it that, you know,
- 5:12certain coastal housing prices are more expensive.
- 5:14You know, the, the Rosero back model can sort
- 5:16of explain why, why housing is
- 5:18so expensive in some places versus others, you know, places
- 5:21that have amenities or, or higher wages.
- 5:23- And, and the superstar, the superstar are more like,
- 5:26I think, I think a lot about that this 1981 paper
- 5:31for listeners who don't, don't remember, basically argues
- 5:33that there are two key issues in superstar markets like
- 5:38football, like opera, like music, which are,
- 5:41there's joint consumption on the demand side,
- 5:44there's a public good aspect that everybody can listen to.
- 5:46The Taylor Taylor Swift record, nobody needs to listen
- 5:49to the second, and there is imperfect
- 5:52substitution the supply side.
- 5:53You cannot substitute seven musicians for Taylor Swift
- 5:56or seven football players for messy, or 10
- 5:59or 25, it doesn't matter.
- 6:01There is the, the substitution doesn't exist.
- 6:03None of those conditions.
- 6:04The rewards were very concentrated on the, on the very top.
- 6:08And so when you have elements in markets that give you
- 6:12super, like give you this joint consumption possibility,
- 6:15like now with ai, where a big engineer can, can kind
- 6:18of change the, the AI that we all use,
- 6:22you get these superstar effects.
- 6:24I think it's still very relevant.
- 6:25So Rosen was fantastic, Becker was fantastic.
- 6:28They were teaching me price theory,
- 6:29which I think is still the most important thing I
- 6:31learned in economics.
- 6:32And, and one contrary to what Levi said in that interview,
- 6:36one essential input to to, to,
- 6:40to everything from macro to trade, to, I mean,
- 6:43all this justice restitution, all of these derived demands,
- 6:48all of these things where people actually care about in, in,
- 6:51in, in, in estimating in applied micro,
- 6:54nobody's using maquel kind of
- 6:59discontinuity and, and discontinuity.
- 7:05I, I, I lost, I lost the, I lost the thread.
- 7:08Nobody's using complex real analysis
- 7:11or real analysis for, for, for, for that.
- 7:15So I would say if you,
- 7:20if you want to, to apply to work,
- 7:22Chicago was the right way to do it.
- 7:23The right place to do it.
- 7:24And the, the, the presence of Becker and,
- 7:29and Rosen and Kevin Murphy, who were my, my main supervisors
- 7:33was, was essential to my training.
- 7:35I, I loved learning from them.
- 7:36I loved being the TA of all three of them.
- 7:39I was his, the rt, I was the RA of both Becker
- 7:42and, and Kevin Murphy.
- 7:44And that was the best training one person could dream.
- 7:46I can't just not imagine the better, better team.
- 7:48Also Canice Perga,
- 7:49who was a very good organizational
- 7:50economist, was in my committee.
- 7:52- That's amazing. And, and you were hired at Chicago Booth
- 7:54as assistant professor.
- 7:56You know, it's really amazing, you know, all the work
- 7:59that you've done on, you know, firm dynamics,
- 8:02organizational economics, you know, really the study
- 8:04of the firm and, and you know, firms are so important
- 8:06for economic growth, you know, innovation and,
- 8:09and you know, obviously, you know, regulation interacts
- 8:11with, with these things as well.
- 8:14I'm curious, a lot of your work has been done in,
- 8:16in on, on certain topics.
- 8:17Some of these topics are, are somewhat theoretical,
- 8:19but you know, this topic, this idea of knowledge,
- 8:21you know, of hierarchies.
- 8:22Can you explain how you know exactly why
- 8:26that's important, why it matters?
- 8:27I understand, you know, ideas are, are central to growth,
- 8:31but explain to me sort of how,
- 8:32how hierarchies and these things work
- 8:34- Happy.
- 8:35I'll be very happy to.
- 8:36So, so I think the idea, the general idea
- 8:38of organizational economics is that macro
- 8:43has always been kind of, and growth has always been about K
- 8:46and l and a aggregate capital, aggregate labor,
- 8:50aggregate productivity.
- 8:52There is always a, a sense that
- 8:56you add more staff, it's more output end of the story.
- 9:00And you want to, you want to estimate how much
- 9:05organizational economists try to open
- 9:07that black box in order to understand productivity, in order
- 9:10to understand economic growth as, as you were saying.
- 9:14And my work has done that.
- 9:16And my, my main contribution,
- 9:17I think is my knowledge hierarchy's work, which is in,
- 9:20was my dissertation work is in a JP paper in 2000, which is
- 9:25pretty highly cited
- 9:27and has maybe 1800 Google scholar sites by now.
- 9:30And, and a couple of qj pieces with St.
- 9:33Ross Hanberg Po Andrus and,
- 9:37and some other work with Stefan as well.
- 9:39Stephan Ross Hanberg, who is now a Chicago and,
- 9:43and po andrus at Harvard of course.
- 9:45And the basic idea is, is the following.
- 9:49Suppose you have a lot of workers
- 9:52and they have different pieces of knowledge
- 9:54and they have to communicate to each other.
- 9:58So workers can use knowledge in production
- 10:01and in order to produce,
- 10:03you basically have to solve a problem.
- 10:04If you don't know the solution, you have
- 10:06to ask somebody else if you don't know who to ask.
- 10:10So when matching problems
- 10:11and solutions is hard a priority,
- 10:12you only know that you don't know.
- 10:14And I show that the optimal organization of the firm is
- 10:16what I call the knowledge hierarchy.
- 10:18And knowledge hierarchy is basically one where the work,
- 10:21the knowledge is organized,
- 10:22where the routine problems are solved near the production
- 10:25floor and the graph is kind of going up
- 10:29and people ask for help
- 10:31or for directions from specialized problem solvers
- 10:34or managers who specialize in the exceptions.
- 10:37So that way you minimize communication costs
- 10:40by asking about exceptional problems.
- 10:43And the higher up are specialized in, in more exceptional
- 10:47or equivalently more valuable problems.
- 10:49And you are basically organizing the knowledge in, in,
- 10:54in that hierarchical way in order to solve the, the,
- 10:58the optimal utilization of knowledge.
- 10:59Now we,
- 11:02I have done several kind of things
- 11:05to, to consider this idea.
- 11:07Harold Beset used to talk about
- 11:10trading off the hierarchy trades of asking
- 11:12for directions versus training, right?
- 11:14So the knowledge, the, the worker could be superstar
- 11:16and know everything and then doesn't need directions.
- 11:19Or you could have workers, which are not great,
- 11:21but then you have the manager who knows
- 11:23and give them direction, solve the, the harder problems.
- 11:26That's the basic trade off.
- 11:28And we've applied it
- 11:29to thinking about inequality with sorting.
- 11:32So managers and workers sort with each other.
- 11:35You get a convex wage kettle with multiple layers where
- 11:39that was a work with, with Stephan
- 11:40where if you're really smart,
- 11:42you're solving your knowledge is really very, you know,
- 11:45a lot and you, your knowledge has
- 11:47to be protected from dumb problems.
- 11:49So you get a longer hierarchy with more better managers
- 11:53who can solve more things.
- 11:54Think of an RA just to, to,
- 11:57to fix our ideas in the mind of an example.
- 11:59They, our listeners can understand.
- 12:01So think of you have a TA and you have a professor.
- 12:04The professor is very good, the TA should be very good.
- 12:06So that can protect it from the dumb questions.
- 12:09Okay, there is an integral anybody can solve an you
- 12:11shouldn't go to the professor.
- 12:13If the students are not very good
- 12:15and the professor's not very good,
- 12:16then maybe you don't need a TA
- 12:17and you can just directly ask.
- 12:18So, so basically the knowledge organization,
- 12:21the positive sorting
- 12:22that the very good consultant should have good associates
- 12:25and good analysts so that he's specialized,
- 12:28he can really use his knowledge about the unusual problem.
- 12:31So I had work on inequality
- 12:33and on this, this heterogeneity in, in in labor
- 12:37and how communication, the key comparative statics is how
- 12:41communication information technology change this
- 12:43organization information technology allows the,
- 12:47the lower levels to solve more problems.
- 12:50So you get flatter firms eventually,
- 12:52if information technology was such
- 12:53that you could do everything
- 12:54yourself, you would need to ask.
- 12:56So you would like have your your one person unicorn
- 12:59and communication technology, which would be
- 13:02centralizing if you can easily communicate
- 13:05and don't have the workers learn anything,
- 13:07just have them ask all the time.
- 13:08That's cheap. So, so communication
- 13:11and information technology are very distinct.
- 13:13And work with John Van
- 13:14and Nick Bloom also from Stanford, like you and,
- 13:18and Rafael sat from Harvard.
- 13:19We, we showed
- 13:21that indeed information communication technology have
- 13:24different impacts on the organization of firms.
- 13:26I also had worked with Stephen Hanberg on growth showing
- 13:30that firms can kind of deepen the hierarchy
- 13:35and go into, get the knowledge, be
- 13:40go deeper and deeper into the knowledge so
- 13:42that they are kind
- 13:44of getting the more unusual problems about the, the, the,
- 13:46the structure they, they are currently in
- 13:49or explore, kind of go around searching
- 13:52and then throw away their current hierarchy
- 13:54and move to a new knowledge field.
- 13:56Of course, in that case,
- 13:57all the structure they built is, is wasted.
- 14:00So we show under what conditions firms will kind
- 14:03of get stuck in the old technology and not explore
- 14:06because the hierarchy is so powerful
- 14:08and we know so much about the current technology that kind
- 14:11of, it would have to be amazing
- 14:13what we discover elsewhere in order to change.
- 14:15So, so the communication technology here can have the
- 14:18reversal of making you go too deep and not explore enough.
- 14:22So fascinating. Yeah,
- 14:26- I mean, it, it just, yeah, I mean the knowledge,
- 14:28innovation, ideas, human capital, you know,
- 14:31all these things are, are so, so essential for growth
- 14:34and, you know, allowing them to, to flourish is,
- 14:36I think a keep part of that.
- 14:39And understanding how it's, or how knowledge is organized,
- 14:41I think is also really,
- 14:43really critical for, for understanding that.
- 14:45I, I wanna talk just a little bit about, you know, you,
- 14:48you went back to Europe, you, you know, you became a,
- 14:51a member of European Parliament, you know, I'm curious,
- 14:54you know, what motivated you, you know,
- 14:56as an academic economist to, to run as a member
- 15:00of European Parliament?
- 15:01And I mean, can you explain, you know,
- 15:03what you learned there during that time as an economist
- 15:05inside you, the, the, the belly of the beast of, of the,
- 15:08the, the European Commission, if you will.
- 15:11- Yeah, the start, the start of the, of the career has to do
- 15:15with the, the, the switch has to be do with after,
- 15:18after finishing at Chicago
- 15:20and being tenure at Booth, I, I stayed there
- 15:24and for, for 10 years I decided to move
- 15:27to the London School of Economics.
- 15:28And, and the crisis came and which,
- 15:32- Which crisis? This is the SAR
- 15:33- Crisis 2008 financial crisis.
- 15:35First the queen asked me about it, by the way,
- 15:37the famous queen question that I had to answer.
- 15:39And, and,
- 15:41and I started a block now ti with Tanana Santo birthday,
- 15:45- The, the, the title, the, the blog is, is,
- 15:48is and nothing is free,
- 15:50- Right?
- 15:51- It's sort of a no such thing as free lunch kind
- 15:53of a title.
- 15:54- Exactly. No, no, free
- 15:55- Lunch.
- 15:56And this is in a Spanish newspaper?
- 15:58- Yeah, it was a Spanish blog. We, we, we did it on our own.
- 16:00We, we were, we were on our own. Oh, very good.
- 16:03We, we got a website
- 16:04and we started to put it, it was the time, the golden time
- 16:07of the blocks, and now it's
- 16:09- This Fernandez Verde at Penn and,
- 16:12and a few other co-authors
- 16:14- Tan Santos at, at at Columbia.
- 16:16Both co-authors and co and colleagues and close friends.
- 16:20I mean, at the very start there were a few other
- 16:22people, but they all dropped out.
- 16:23And then eventually we, we left it.
- 16:24So other people have continued of course,
- 16:26but that block was very influential
- 16:28because we were able to write about the crisis.
- 16:31I mean, that's something I would tell
- 16:32economists to do, right?
- 16:33I mean, I think there's always this advice people are given
- 16:36like, oh, don't do side projects.
- 16:38I think side projects are useful
- 16:39because they, they, you learn stuff.
- 16:42You, you learn about the world and you have impact and, and,
- 16:46and sometimes, you know, you have more impact writing an
- 16:48interesting blog that gets the IMF to rethink
- 16:50how they're thinking of your country than,
- 16:52than than writing a long paper that gets 35 sites, right?
- 16:56So, which doesn't, is not so unusual papers to have
- 17:00that, that number of sites.
- 17:01So we did that blog, I wrote a book about Spain, which was
- 17:06in the basis of the block,
- 17:07which was El Espan was a bestseller.
- 17:09I got involved in politics through that book.
- 17:11I was asked to write a program of this party,
- 17:13and then I, I, they asked me to run
- 17:17for the European Parliament and I said, yeah, sure.
- 17:19I I, I'll, I'll be, I'll be, I'll be running
- 17:20because the Parliament is a good place for an economist.
- 17:22There's more policy. I thought it was a good fit.
- 17:26And I I I, I was the head of the list.
- 17:30I we got, we got a lot of votes. We did very well.
- 17:32And, and I, I got to be vice president of the, of the group.
- 17:36So it was, it was very interesting. What did I learn?
- 17:39- Yeah, I I it's like, you know, the,
- 17:40the European Commission, I just think, you know,
- 17:42it's obviously both, you know, they've got this,
- 17:44the European Union, the promise of it, I guess is,
- 17:46it would be a single, single market, I guess, you know,
- 17:48free, free movement of capital, you know, of both capital
- 17:52and, and labor and goods.
- 17:55And so you, you have I guess free trade within,
- 17:57within union.
- 17:58We, we'll talk about the euro in,
- 17:59in a little bit a about the monetary union side of things.
- 18:02But, but I mean, the other side of it too is, you know, the,
- 18:06that, you know, the European Commission acts as a, you know,
- 18:09massive regulatory body as well.
- 18:11So you, Europe also, you know, regulates trade.
- 18:14I mean, outside of, I mean, to some degree they, they act
- 18:17as their own trade block, but,
- 18:18but also, yeah, they're regulating things.
- 18:21They're preventing, you know, tech firms from, you know,
- 18:24think GDPR, you know, the regulating technology, tech firms,
- 18:29all sorts of things.
- 18:30And and what, what did you learn and,
- 18:32and you were there sort of at the, at the,
- 18:34I think the height of a lot of this,
- 18:36and I mean, it still goes on.
- 18:38I'm curious, what, what did you see?
- 18:40- So I I, I learned a lot.
- 18:42I mean, one, one thing, one general thing I learned is an
- 18:44economist is useful during the crisis.
- 18:46I mean, they don't necessarily wanna pay a lot of attention
- 18:48to our ideas politicians,
- 18:50because they, they know they wanna get votes
- 18:52and they wanna not see what they paying the votes.
- 18:54But during the crisis with the Ukraine sanctions
- 18:57and with the COVID, I, I, I felt I had a lot of ability
- 19:00to impact because people needed ideas.
- 19:02So that was, that was a good time for, to be an economist,
- 19:05like my friends who are neurosurgeons
- 19:07and love when somebody has, has a brain tumor
- 19:11and they all talk up to each other
- 19:12and you are like, oh, no guys, this,
- 19:14but they think it's really cool
- 19:15that they're operating these things.
- 19:17So for an economist, the crisis is always interesting
- 19:20and it's an opportunity to contribute.
- 19:22So I-I-I-I-I, I learned that on the, on the question of,
- 19:27of a regulation you pose,
- 19:28I think it's essential to our future.
- 19:31I learned that there was an ideology, ideas mattered,
- 19:34and the ideology in Brussels had two elements
- 19:36that were very harmful, harmful.
- 19:38One is the Brussels effect, the idea
- 19:41that we would be the regulators to the world,
- 19:42that we could just set up a set of rules.
- 19:46And we are such a big market everybody will have to follow.
- 19:50I think that was big mistake.
- 19:52I don't think that's that's correct.
- 19:54I think you set up a lot of rules
- 19:55and then your firms are screwed,
- 19:57and then the rest of the world just looks at you like
- 19:59you are just crazy.
- 20:00And the second was the opposite of my block title.
- 20:03Instead of no free lunch, all lunches are free.
- 20:06So I remember the first speech
- 20:08of the commission president in parliament when we,
- 20:09we had to ratify her.
- 20:11And the first speech she gave was like, well, the green deal
- 20:15for jobs is the future of Europe.
- 20:18We're going to fight the climate change
- 20:20and there's going to be so many more jobs
- 20:22because of this green deal.
- 20:23And it's like, look, you can be against climate change
- 20:28and wanting to do a good climate policy.
- 20:31What you cannot claim is that that's just for free.
- 20:33I mean, that's like, you know, you're going
- 20:35to raise the price of electricity and gasoline and gas,
- 20:39and you're going to make it difficult for people to build
- 20:42and also for the things.
- 20:43And that's gonna cost. And you have to tell people and,
- 20:45and politics everywhere.
- 20:47But in Europe in particular, has become, had become,
- 20:49at the time very much freelance politics.
- 20:52So ideas matter a lot.
- 20:54And this is how, this is how many
- 20:56of these things were discussed.
- 20:57People felt that the digital regulation, oh, that's great
- 21:00because we will be regulators to the world.
- 21:02And that has generated GDPR, which was
- 21:05before me, AI Act, which was happily after I left.
- 21:08So I'm, I'm not responsible any of the two big mistakes
- 21:11of Europe, but a lot of the Green deal legislation,
- 21:14I was there when, when it was proceeding, for example,
- 21:17the parliament voted to stock production
- 21:20of internal combustion engine in 2035 without really a good
- 21:25cost benefit analysis without really any
- 21:27understanding of what that meant.
- 21:28I mean, if you do prices, at least people can adapt
- 21:31and some people can continue.
- 21:32They don't have chargers. This was a crazy volunteeristic
- 21:35policy that has just been reversed last week.
- 21:38And so a lot of kind of regulation
- 21:41that was based on this idea that, oh, we make a move
- 21:43to electrical and then we will be richer and better
- 21:46and cleaner and nothing will cost anything.
- 21:47And it's like, you know, the free lunch is not,
- 21:51is not a smart, it's not smart way to, to, to,
- 21:53to do, to do policy.
- 21:55So on those years, I think there was a lot of
- 22:02voluntaristic policy making I think happened in the
- 22:06US as well, and the Biden administration
- 22:10and a lot of unawareness of
- 22:12how we were really putting Europe in a pretty
- 22:15tricky, tricky situation.
- 22:16I mean, Europe, to be fair, has missed the,
- 22:20we were converging until 1980
- 22:23to the US in 1980.
- 22:25We stopped converging. You could think it's Ronald Reagan,
- 22:28you could think something else.
- 22:30And since the mid eighties, we have not,
- 22:33we have actually gone back relative to us GDP per capita
- 22:38and basically comes down to we missed the it revolution.
- 22:42Europe was in the frontier of technology in 1980.
- 22:45Nuclear trains, planes, cars, everything,
- 22:50fridges, all the kind of the technologies
- 22:53of the last industrial revolution that were,
- 22:55had been growing during the century.
- 22:58But when it came, when radical change was needed,
- 23:01all our kind of firing calls,
- 23:03which dis discouraged firms from, from, you know,
- 23:08making mistakes from, okay, you start in one direction,
- 23:11you make a mistake, you fire the people,
- 23:13you start in another direction.
- 23:14All that was very difficult to, to, to, to, to do in Europe.
- 23:18And that meant the two radical revolutions
- 23:22innovation revolution have happened.
- 23:23The IT and AI currently basically missed.
- 23:27And I think it has to do a lot with, with
- 23:32with the regulatory luxury regulation
- 23:35to make it equivalent to luxury beliefs.
- 23:37A phrase that we used in our blog.
- 23:40I have a blog with my son Peter
- 23:42that's called Silicon Continent.
- 23:43We have 7,000 subscribers, a substack. Now
- 23:46- It's a great substack, Silicon Conant, highly recommended.
- 23:50Yeah, I mean, I, I so I,
- 23:52- And we talked about these luxury rules.
- 23:55Luxury rules are rules that you set up just so rich,
- 23:59you know, everything has to be perfect or, or not exist.
- 24:03- So, so I, I guess like, you know, the, you know, you,
- 24:05you mentioned, you know, there's this idea, you know,
- 24:07that the process of fact, I mean, it's pretty unbelievable.
- 24:09I mean, the idea that I, I guess maybe the, the lack
- 24:13of humility that certain European regulators have
- 24:17with thinking that they're setting the world standard,
- 24:19you know, with things like GDPR regulating tech.
- 24:24And when I think at, at this point, a lot of this seems
- 24:27to be, you know, I think clearly, you know, backfiring
- 24:30and you know, there, there is no real, you know,
- 24:32I'd say vibrant tech, you know, industry in Europe to,
- 24:36to speak of, at least compared to the us.
- 24:39But I, I guess like one, one re you know, re reaction to
- 24:43that regulatory state is, I mean, you look at like,
- 24:45for example, you know Nigel Farage
- 24:48and you look at, you know, the past 10 years of, you know,
- 24:51Brexit, I mean, part of the complaint that,
- 24:56you know, certain people in the UK like Nigel Farage had,
- 24:59you know, the, the party at that time was that,
- 25:02that there was this regulatory BMF that was, you know, the,
- 25:07the European Union and that they wanted to leave.
- 25:09And, and hence they, you know, they went through with,
- 25:12you know, the Brexit vote and,
- 25:13and you know, by, you know, certain slim majority
- 25:18that the Britain decided to leave.
- 25:21And, you know, part of that means, you know,
- 25:23they obviously have to, you know,
- 25:25they leave the single market
- 25:26and they have to reestablish, you know, the,
- 25:30their trade ties and,
- 25:31and figure out what, what to do in terms of immigration
- 25:35and so forth between, you know, the UK and the eu.
- 25:38And, and then, you know, the,
- 25:40they never joined the Euro to begin with.
- 25:42So they didn't have the monetary union sort of challenge.
- 25:44But, but, but I mean, some people would say that, you know,
- 25:48that the positive part of Brexit was that, you know,
- 25:50now the UK doesn't have to deal
- 25:52with this thing called, you know, the European
- 25:54- Yeah, I mean it's, it's, it's,
- 25:56let me make a a broad intellectual point first and then,
- 25:59and then address the, the Brexit and,
- 26:00and the overall regulation.
- 26:02The broad intellectual point,
- 26:03which is a very Stanford Chicago point is, is, is from
- 26:07so well about the constraint of cons.
- 26:11Yeah. The constraint versus the unconstrained were to think,
- 26:14and, and, and how you have to think of incentives and, and,
- 26:18and, and constraints when you are thinking about,
- 26:21about policy and, and, and, and the de sets point at UCLA,
- 26:25but, but also Chicago in some sense
- 26:28point about the nirvana fallacy.
- 26:30The nirvana fallacy is like, oh, well, you know,
- 26:33we have this problem, this other world is solved,
- 26:36like the state will solve it.
- 26:37It's like, okay, you wanna think about constraints
- 26:40and incentives in state A
- 26:41and you want to think of incentives
- 26:43and constraints in state b in the market and state.
- 26:46In both of those cases.
- 26:47And in in this excessive regulation,
- 26:50there is this sense like, oh,
- 26:51we have a market failure less intervene.
- 26:52And there is very little thinking about
- 26:54what will this intervention lead to as
- 26:57to the Brexit specifically.
- 27:00And, and, and the, and the as asset cause of, of, of due
- 27:03to the overregulation, I'm in the UK right now.
- 27:05I'm in the London School of Economics
- 27:07and it's very depressing.
- 27:10I mean, look, Europe has two problems,
- 27:13has a problem overregulation, it has a problem
- 27:15of a single market, which is far for complete.
- 27:18And the UK gave up the single market, which is big thing
- 27:23to weave up in order to eliminate the over regulation.
- 27:27They didn't, they've given up the single market
- 27:30and you will just not believe.
- 27:32I mean there is this story everywhere in the press about a
- 27:34hundred million dollars pounds spent in a bad tunnel.
- 27:39The HS two, the high speed lane that was going to be trend
- 27:42that I was going between non Edinburg was budgeted
- 27:45for like 24 billion is gone up to 110 billion.
- 27:49And it's basically 'cause it has become a tube
- 27:51because it goes under everything
- 27:52because there is some biodiversity, this
- 27:55or some biodiversity data,
- 27:56or there is some rule that the UK is hobbled
- 28:00by rules more than ever, it's unable
- 28:03to build electricity, nuclear plant, I don't know
- 28:06how many hundreds of millions they,
- 28:09they spent billions, if I don't remember wrong.
- 28:11I, we wrote a block about my,
- 28:15my son wrote a block about how the salmon in the,
- 28:18in silicon continent, that,
- 28:20that there was like an enormous number
- 28:23of millions un seing number of pounds, millions of pounds
- 28:26to save each sum in the ley pint in the nuclear
- 28:30plant that was built in the UK with the enormous delay.
- 28:33So the UK has been really wasting the chance they've
- 28:37incurred the cost, which is given out the single market
- 28:40in order to obtain that benefit potential, which is
- 28:43to become Singapore on tha to be, to be a, a power in,
- 28:48in, in, in, in doing all this technology innovation
- 28:50Europe cannot do.
- 28:52And instead they've just done nothing with it.
- 28:55I mean, they can't build a tunnel,
- 28:56they cannot build a terminal in Heathrow,
- 28:58they can't allow housing to be built in London.
- 29:01It's very depressing. And I don't think Nigeria Farage will
- 29:04be any better
- 29:05because he's basically not interested in
- 29:10policy and because the voters he has are not interested in,
- 29:13you know, the problem of Europe largely is the problem
- 29:17of an aging electorate.
- 29:18The aging electorate doesn't really care that
- 29:22the young people don't have housing.
- 29:24They don't care that we're not building stock,
- 29:26we're not investing in the future.
- 29:27They want their pensions. They, when the healthcare
- 29:30and the politicians say whatever they wanna say,
- 29:32but at the end of the day, look at France,
- 29:35they increase pensions and they increase health spending
- 29:38and they cut everything else
- 29:40and increase taxes to pay
- 29:42for those pension, the health spending.
- 29:44So at the end of the day,
- 29:45there's a political economy problem
- 29:46that is affecting the UK as well.
- 29:49- Yeah, absolutely.
- 29:51So, you know, i i I guess I,
- 29:53I just wanna a little bit about, you know,
- 29:55the the monetary union side of things
- 29:56because you, you, you also recently wrote a book titled
- 29:59Crisis Cycle Challenges, evolution in the Future of the Euro
- 30:03with John Cochran.
- 30:04And, and Klaus message in, I'm just curious, you know,
- 30:08obviously the, the euro, you know, it
- 30:10is had a a very interesting, you know, trajectory where you,
- 30:15one, we had sort of the ascent of the euro in the, the, the,
- 30:18the late nineties in, in the formation.
- 30:20You had the first Europe, the European exchange mechanism
- 30:24and exchange rate mechanism.
- 30:25Then you had the formation of the euro at the, at the dawn
- 30:29of the millennium.
- 30:30And then, and then, you know, we had this, you know,
- 30:33in the early 2010s you had the European reign debt crisis.
- 30:36There were questions about whether
- 30:37or not Greece would exit the Euro
- 30:40or maybe other countries,
- 30:43other indebted countries like Portugal, Italy, you know,
- 30:46I mentioned Greece, but also Spain, that that, you know,
- 30:49potentially could, could exit or,
- 30:51or that there would need to be some, some rethinking to deal
- 30:54with the fact that you had this sort
- 30:55of like fiscal free riding thing that that was sort
- 30:57of contingent, you know, on, on this big monetary union
- 31:01that this, the rest of the monetary union had
- 31:03to subsidize in some way.
- 31:05And then you had the, the sort
- 31:06of draggy whatever it takes moment.
- 31:08And, and that seemed to, to make things sort of go away,
- 31:12at least the volatility in the markets disappear.
- 31:15And then, you know, sort of 10, 10 years following
- 31:18that you end, I mean you also, you've got countries
- 31:21that are joining wanting to join the Euro again.
- 31:23I mean you had the Baltics in the, in the mid 2010s
- 31:26that joined or followed through with joining the, the Euro.
- 31:30And, and even more recently you've had, you know,
- 31:32countries like Croatia
- 31:33and others that, that are, that, that are joining it.
- 31:36I, I'm just curious, I mean, what are the challenges
- 31:39with the euro that the remain, as you see?
- 31:41I mean there is this, I guess, concept that, you know,
- 31:43you can, you can't have a a a a,
- 31:47a monetary union without having a fiscal union.
- 31:49There's pushes to have more euro wide debt
- 31:53and it's, I something
- 31:54that I think some European countries might not like.
- 31:57And I'm just curious what, what your thoughts are.
- 32:00- It was just agreed last Friday.
- 32:02Last Friday was a, there was a meeting
- 32:05where more European debt for, for Ukraine was,
- 32:08was decided to issue.
- 32:09So the book comes from a lot of the work
- 32:13and the policy work I did over those years from Klaus
- 32:17experience on the, on the, on the European Central Bank.
- 32:21He was one of the earliest employees.
- 32:23And from John Coran, who is a Hoover fellow,
- 32:27as Australia listeners well know,
- 32:29who is a fantastic micro economist and a wonderful writer.
- 32:33And what we argued is that
- 32:37the European Central Bank, the institution
- 32:39of the Monte Union without fiscal union is
- 32:41perfectly feasible.
- 32:43We think that it was established with clear rules
- 32:48and with clear eye view of what the, what the risks were.
- 32:52But as the crisis, the different crisis came, we had four,
- 32:57one in a hundred years crisis, one
- 33:00after the other, the French crisis, the Euro crisis,
- 33:05the pandemic and the war.
- 33:09In initial of this crisis, they, they should be jumped
- 33:12or destroyed some of the, some of the rules
- 33:15that were established there, probably with good reason,
- 33:19probably it was necessary at the time,
- 33:21but at the same time, not coming back
- 33:25to VR rules afterwards.
- 33:27It's true, after the first travel, the 2012,
- 33:32Mario demanded conditionality in order to,
- 33:35to do this whatever it takes.
- 33:36And there was a, a clear conditionality for his
- 33:39outright monetary transactions.
- 33:40If he was going to rescue a country, that country had
- 33:43to be on a program like think of an IMF program.
- 33:46But, and there was a, a banking union effort at that time.
- 33:50So some of the problems that were left un un unthought
- 33:54during the, the big thing, sorry,
- 33:56lemme just go back to one important thing.
- 33:58The big thing that was left unsolved in the design was,
- 34:02okay, we have fiscal rules in order to have this
- 34:05common credit card, but people have their own income
- 34:08and their own expenses.
- 34:10How are we going to do it? We're going to put fiscal rules.
- 34:12Okay, good. The problem is
- 34:14what happens if people don't follow the fiscal rules?
- 34:15Exactly. Oh, okay. And what happens if they're bankrupt?
- 34:20They won't be, we didn't have any European IMF didn't have a
- 34:23banking rules that would allow banks
- 34:25and states to be separated
- 34:26and banks not to drag states or vice versa.
- 34:29We didn't have a sovereign bankruptcy procedure.
- 34:31So when all these things started,
- 34:33it was all improvised a solution.
- 34:35And so during 12, with druggie
- 34:37and with the conditionality in the rescues, 13, 14
- 34:40with the banking union, we were putting in place those
- 34:43institutions, but eventually QE came,
- 34:47the states discovered that, you know, money was cheap,
- 34:50debt was cheap, there was not much reason
- 34:53to put their house in order, neither fiscally
- 34:55nor in terms of growth,
- 34:56nor in terms very importantly
- 34:58of finishing these institutions.
- 34:59And they abandoned all these efforts to strengthen the union
- 35:03because you had the European Central Bank
- 35:05behind why would you need a fiscal authority if the monetary
- 35:07authority can give you the money for free?
- 35:09Right. Much better, much better.
- 35:11So they were, they were kind
- 35:15of abandoning all these reform efforts.
- 35:17And our book is basically a plea to say, look,
- 35:22the fiscal monetary union with a fiscal union can work,
- 35:25but you need to accept those constraints.
- 35:27And countries like France have basically jumped over those
- 35:31constraints every time since the start of the Euro.
- 35:35And as Ker said in a phrase that we have at the start
- 35:39of a book, he said,
- 35:41because it's France, I mean, why do you sanction France?
- 35:43The president of the commission said, because it's France.
- 35:46So France basically hasn't had to fulfill these rules
- 35:49and they don't have the fiscal discipline from the union,
- 35:51which is fine, then they should have the market discipline.
- 35:53But the market discipline disappears
- 35:55because the European Central Bank says, we will intervene
- 35:58and has a program which is called TPI,
- 36:00the transmission protection Instrument,
- 36:02which is there to do that.
- 36:03So in a way, you have neither one or the other.
- 36:06And the result is that you have a situation
- 36:10where the welfare states
- 36:11that keep growing the pension define demands,
- 36:14which are politically imminent,
- 36:16are more powerful than the efforts
- 36:18to establish growth enhancing reforms.
- 36:20I mean, Germany has decided we don't want debt break
- 36:22because we're in, in a defense trouble.
- 36:25And in fact they take out the debt break
- 36:28and what do they spend the money on welfare,
- 36:30because that's at the end what the politics is pushing.
- 36:34So basically what we say in the book is, look,
- 36:38we understand dear ECB, why you did these things.
- 36:42We don't think these are good presence to keep in place.
- 36:45These were exceptional moves.
- 36:47We need to go back to a system like the initial one
- 36:49where those boundaries between monetary
- 36:51and fiscal policy are very clear
- 36:53and where the institutions that require are required
- 36:57for a banking union including a
- 36:58bankruptcy sovereign procedure.
- 37:00If Illinois, you know, goes down
- 37:04or Chicago goes down,
- 37:06then the US government is not in the Federal Reserve.
- 37:09Nobody thinks the Federal Reserve will rescue
- 37:10Chicago or Illinois.
- 37:12And the example certainly are not totally unrealistic.
- 37:17- Well, I guess part of it, you know, I think a lot
- 37:18of these states are supposed to have balanced budget
- 37:20amendments, and that's kind of, I guess how, how a lot of
- 37:24that, you know, it's supposed to work,
- 37:25but I mean, of course there's, you know, there's exceptions
- 37:29to that and it's a very similar thing, I suppose in the US
- 37:32to, to Europe, as you know, there's fiscal rules that that
- 37:36that aren't being followed by, by member states.
- 37:40Yeah, I mean it's fascinating.
- 37:41I, me, yeah, you know, I, I forget exactly
- 37:42what the fiscal rules were, you know, something about 60%
- 37:45of GDPI dunno if there's the mash
- 37:47- That is 60% deficit is 3%. That's correct.
- 37:51- Wow. And, and then, you know,
- 37:52obviously many countries just totally blew, blew
- 37:55- Path.
- 37:56Yeah, France basically, my memory is
- 37:58that I just from memory,
- 37:59but I think only two times, only
- 38:01by mistake fulfilled the deficit.
- 38:03Of course, that rule, France has been increasing the debt
- 38:06as a share of GDP every year since the start of the euro
- 38:11until today, every year.
- 38:13- Wow. - Maybe not in 2018, maybe that, that year not, but
- 38:18- I mean, do you, do you see Europe
- 38:19as maybe being in a place where it's sort
- 38:21of entering this period of fiscal dominance,
- 38:24where now obviously you do have many very indebted
- 38:26countries, Germany's starting to take on more debt.
- 38:29I mean there's, you know, a big shift in, in sort
- 38:32of developing their own, you know, defense now and,
- 38:35and funding that Germany is playing a role in funding that,
- 38:39you know, amidst the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
- 38:42Yeah, but you, you see what happened in Japan, you know,
- 38:44Japan's trying to raise interest rates.
- 38:45Now their, their currency's actually falling,
- 38:49and there's some suggestion, I mean,
- 38:50Japan has even more debt, you know, compared to, to Europe
- 38:54as a fraction of GDP.
- 38:55But now, now they're running into these issues
- 38:56where they're, you know, by even raising interest rates
- 38:59that there's expectations that there'll be, you know,
- 39:02for further problems, more, you know,
- 39:04higher interest costs on the debt
- 39:06and potentially future inflation problems.
- 39:08And that'll just make that,
- 39:10that makes the currency sell off.
- 39:11I, I don't think Europe's quite reached that,
- 39:13but there are some concerns that there are these sort
- 39:16of issues that there's now such a big fiscal
- 39:19debt load that that that,
- 39:21- I mean, the aggregate,
- 39:23the aggregate fiscal position is not, is not terrible
- 39:26the problem of distribution, right?
- 39:28You, you have, I mean, the problem
- 39:30of fiscal dominance doesn't necessarily come from the,
- 39:33from defense side, I don't think
- 39:34that's going to be our problem.
- 39:36I think it comes from the, again, from the pensioners,
- 39:38from the welfare states.
- 39:39I mean, I think we had very, very, very powerful
- 39:43welfare states, very aging electorates
- 39:46with very low fertility.
- 39:49For the politicians, it's always going to be preferred
- 39:51to satisfy this constituency.
- 39:55And the France, you know, both bar
- 39:58and the, the, the, the, the, the popular, the the
- 40:01front national, the, the right wing populist
- 40:04and the left wing populist national have noticed
- 40:07that the European Central bank is there.
- 40:09And they both proposed that it should be, you know,
- 40:12France should be basically bailed out by Europe
- 40:14and by the European Central Bank,
- 40:16and that it should cancel the debt
- 40:17or well by the has said we should talk to the A CB
- 40:20and they should do things differently.
- 40:21Even McComb has recently said it.
- 40:24So the risk is more that
- 40:27people play the Samsung game.
- 40:29Like, if you don't save me, I'm going
- 40:30to just take the temple down with me.
- 40:33And that it's going to be hard for the a CB in front
- 40:36of countries like France or potentially Italy.
- 40:38Although Italy is, is behaving well now, it's going
- 40:41to be difficult to resist.
- 40:42So it's more the welfare states, their growth.
- 40:45We ta France doesn't have scope for more taxing and,
- 40:48and they're just lowering the,
- 40:50the pension age from 64 to 62.
- 40:52Imagine after having done the effort from to raise it,
- 40:56I don't think, let's imagine the alternative,
- 40:58France has the French Franc.
- 41:00Can anybody imagine
- 41:01that they will be lowering the retirement to 62?
- 41:04I mean, there would be a big crisis,
- 41:06a frank would be falling people,
- 41:07the markets would be scared, but they are in the Euro and,
- 41:11and they're protected by the whole,
- 41:12by the Europeans in Japan and by the whole.
- 41:14And so they can kind of hide their trouble.
- 41:18And of course, if it starts to get bad,
- 41:22like in 2000 10, 11, 12, for,
- 41:26for some Australian proliferate countries at the time,
- 41:28if it starts getting bad France, what is this going to do?
- 41:33Is it going to let you know France fall?
- 41:35Are we going to go see a bankruptcy?
- 41:36Are we going to see the politicians really be serious and,
- 41:39and, and, and do a pension reform?
- 41:41I mean, all those things are very, very uncertain.
- 41:44So in what sense?
- 41:46You're protected against fiscal dominance
- 41:47because you have a board that has to vote
- 41:49and the majority of the states are not prote
- 41:53and the average state is not bad.
- 41:54But on the other hand, you have this risk of gaming
- 41:57of some member states kind of trying to figure out
- 42:00how committed is really the a
- 42:01ccb to price stability and price stability.
- 42:03And ACB might have to choose to price stability
- 42:06and then in some country fall and have some default
- 42:09or fiscal governance
- 42:11and letting the price, the price objective
- 42:14inflation objective called, called called out of control.
- 42:19So I, I think that,
- 42:21that the design still needs the elements that John
- 42:25and Klaus and me are arguing.
- 42:26And you need to make sure that countries know
- 42:29that they play games, they're going to go on bankruptcy
- 42:31and nobody's going to worry the, the banks are not going
- 42:34to fall when the country falls
- 42:36and the country's gonna have to restructure the debt.
- 42:37And that's not a big deal, like a big corporation
- 42:40or like, you know, at least they need to know it
- 42:42and then they will do these things.
- 42:44Right now we're in bit of a situation
- 42:46where we don't have the commission enforcing the rules,
- 42:49the fiscal rules you were talking about,
- 42:50and we don't have the market enforcing the rules,
- 42:53and that's a bit scary.
- 42:55- Absolutely. I wanna talk a little bit more about
- 42:57innovation and I guess, you know,
- 42:59the lack thereof in Europe.
- 43:00Getting back to a little bit more about regulation,
- 43:02you know, you recently were a document, you know,
- 43:05it's titled The Constitution of Innovation
- 43:08with Benton Hol from Nobel Prize winner and,
- 43:12and Nicholas Petit.
- 43:14Can you tell us a little bit more about
- 43:16what you think the key ingredients for innovation are
- 43:18and what's holding it back,
- 43:20particularly in places like Europe?
- 43:21- Yes. So it's, the title of our, of our document is, is
- 43:26after the, the Constitution of freedom of
- 43:31Hyatt Liberty in the Constitution of Liberty.
- 43:36And we are kind of echoing this, this, this is his way
- 43:40of thinking about, about, about that.
- 43:44We are looking into why is Europe kind of
- 43:48since 1980 behind.
- 43:50We think that the single market
- 43:53and the lack of innovation are sense are are the,
- 43:57the single market and the regular excessive regulation are,
- 44:00are essential that Europe is doing luxury rules,
- 44:04is setting up all sorts of rules that the Brussels affect.
- 44:07This idea that Europe is de regulated
- 44:09to the world is insane.
- 44:10That that costs
- 44:12and there's no free lunch that we have to understand cost
- 44:15and that Europe should put prosperity as their main
- 44:19and only guide the European Union.
- 44:21We should drop all the other things
- 44:23that Europe has been trying to do,
- 44:24focus on the single market, focus on letting firms scale up,
- 44:28eliminating regulations.
- 44:29And unfortunately, the single market,
- 44:30we inspire ourselves a lot from the US interstate
- 44:34commerce clause.
- 44:35We say like you shouldn't,
- 44:37I mean basically mutual recognition in every case.
- 44:39So if you can sell in one country,
- 44:42you should be able to sell in all the others.
- 44:44There shouldn't need be a need.
- 44:45In other words, for harmonization, the legislation,
- 44:49which is always a mess
- 44:50and always kind of at the end of the day,
- 44:53harmonizes nothing,
- 44:54because then each country implements the
- 44:55rules in different ways.
- 44:57Instead, we just let the countries have their rules compete
- 45:00and everybody can sell products everywhere else.
- 45:03We talk about a federal commercial court where firms
- 45:07that are not allowed to sell from one country into the next
- 45:10should be able to get a ruling in English in 180 days
- 45:14and not have to go to the commission, which never enforces
- 45:17or to a local court which don't know European rules.
- 45:20So it's really about getting a true single market
- 45:22and eliminating regulation.
- 45:23And instead of like other reports
- 45:25that have been talking about this,
- 45:27but having talked about what are the constitutional aspects
- 45:29of this, we propose this set of reforms along the lines of
- 45:33what I was telling you that actually will result in Europe
- 45:38working in a different way
- 45:39and pro producing a completely
- 45:43different regulatory outcome.
- 45:45So we, we believe that Europe is a good idea.
- 45:47We also, like Klaus
- 45:49and John, me, believe that the euro is a good idea,
- 45:51but we believe that we are kind of badly
- 45:55abandoning our initial purpose, which is in the case
- 45:58of the Euro low inflation full stop.
- 46:02And in the case of the stable currency
- 46:05and in the case of of, of this, of the European Union,
- 46:09it's a single market that allows firms to compete
- 46:12and to scale everywhere Europe.
- 46:15- Well, I I wanna just, I guess my last question here, I,
- 46:17I'm curious about your thoughts on, on the current state
- 46:21of Spain, you, you know, the Spanish Prime minister,
- 46:26you know, Sanchez, you know,
- 46:27socialist prime minister's been in, you know, since 2018,
- 46:31you know, certainly been, I'd say one of the most both,
- 46:35you know, pivotal and controversial politicians in Spain,
- 46:40you know, probably since, you know, since Franco.
- 46:44And, and I'm just curious in terms of a lot of
- 46:51his, the changes that he's tried to put in place.
- 46:55I'm just curious, what do you think about the,
- 46:57the trajectory of Spain in the past 10 years, 10, 15 years?
- 47:01Obviously there's a lot of dynamics between, you know,
- 47:04Catalonia and, you know, certain regions and,
- 47:08and my understanding is that, you know, the essentially to
- 47:12continue and to stay in Power Sanchez
- 47:17and the socialists have in, in part allied themselves
- 47:20with the catalonians, you know, which, which obviously,
- 47:22you know, independence has been something
- 47:24that certain sections of catalonians of, of, of soft war
- 47:29obviously, or either independence or autonomy.
- 47:32Yeah. I'm just curious, what, what's your take on on all
- 47:34of this and all these changes?
- 47:35- Yeah, no, I, I think, I think the trajectory
- 47:37of Spain's extremely worrying.
- 47:39The markets look at our growth and they say it's great,
- 47:42but the reason it's great is we're getting 500,000
- 47:45immigrants per year.
- 47:47That's like, if the US was getting over 3 million,
- 47:51that would be, that would be a problem
- 47:53for the US It was a big crisis
- 47:55with i in the US with 1 million.
- 47:58So we're getting extensive growth.
- 47:59We are not getting any increase in per capita income since
- 48:02basically 2008.
- 48:04All the GDP per capita that increased has gone
- 48:06to higher pensions.
- 48:08So the pension is, have increased their average earnings,
- 48:11but the people between 18 and 65 have not.
- 48:16So it's been a, a since 2008, Spain was converging to Europe
- 48:20and 2008, but since 2008 we basically stagnating over
- 48:25and the government of Sanchez has been extremely
- 48:27negative for Spain.
- 48:28Yes. And he allied with the
- 48:31separatists in the bus country and in Catalonia.
- 48:34And, and in, in, in both places he even allied with,
- 48:39with the supporters of the terrorist groups
- 48:40who never repented hei with the people
- 48:43who did a esta the tag against, against Spain
- 48:49try to over overthrow the constitution.
- 48:52So, but, but most importantly,
- 48:54and also of course he allied with the Communist party
- 48:57and extreme left, he has basically now
- 49:02discovering under a huge set of corruption scandals,
- 49:07two number twos, his personal choices
- 49:11to run the party while he was in government are in jail
- 49:14or have been in jail
- 49:16and are probably going to spend a huge amount
- 49:17of time in jail because they've been
- 49:20basically scandals related to Venezuela and to construction.
- 49:23There, there's been a big set of connections with Venezuela
- 49:26that we will find out if Maduro goes, a lot
- 49:29of people in Spain are going to be panicking
- 49:32because the paperwork, the paper that will come out will,
- 49:34will be, will be very incriminating.
- 49:36So there's a big set
- 49:38of corruption scandals he's destroyed the institution's
- 49:41taken over the public, the telephone company,
- 49:45which was privatized in the nineties,
- 49:46he's put on the state control the main defense company
- 49:49that was in telecom and, and
- 49:51and intelligence, no, the, sorry, the first the main, main
- 49:55defense and technology company, which is,
- 49:57has been put under his direct control.
- 49:59He put socialist ICS everywhere.
- 50:02He's destroyed basically the, the independence
- 50:06of all the regulators.
- 50:08So basically he's trying
- 50:09of the Denmark versus Venezuela dilemma
- 50:12that I had in my dilemma, the Spain in the book I,
- 50:14I wrote in, in 2014.
- 50:16And that served as the inspiration for the program of the,
- 50:20of the party that, that I was with he anos
- 50:25that I ran for, he basically has
- 50:28chosen the road of Venezuela.
- 50:29He wants to turn Spain into some sort of banana republic.
- 50:31Happily. I think his time is over part thanks
- 50:34to his corruption scandals.
- 50:36So I, I've been very sad with Spain.
- 50:39I thought I,
- 50:40the socialist part in Spain traditionally has been
- 50:43pretty market oriented and pretty sensible.
- 50:46During the eighties they had a, a set of pretty good.
- 50:50I mean, there were socialists,
- 50:51but they were social democratic and non-European way
- 50:55and they, they were not necessarily,
- 50:59they were not many of them Muslim,
- 51:01were not corrupt and so on.
- 51:03But these new socialist party has proven like
- 51:06to be another thing.
- 51:08He was basically voted out by the party, he came back
- 51:13with support from the grassroots
- 51:14and basically eliminated everybody on the party who was
- 51:18sensible in any way
- 51:20and has govern with, with a very extremist
- 51:23and not clean clique of, of people.
- 51:27- Wow. Wow.
- 51:28Well, hope, hope, hoping that, you know, Spain turns,
- 51:32turns the corner and,
- 51:33and is able to recover from, from all this.
- 51:36And, and it's now near near decade of, of,
- 51:40of socialist rule and really want to thank you
- 51:43for coming on those, this is amazing hearing your
- 51:45perspective and your experiences, you know, working not only
- 51:49as an academic economist,
- 51:51but also your time in, in Brussels.
- 51:56It's a member of European parliament. It's really,
- 51:58- I'd like academia do tell your,
- 52:00your business that I'm back to academia.
- 52:01I mean LSC I'm working a lot on doing research
- 52:04and present work
- 52:05- And I'm sure your students, you know, really benefit from,
- 52:08you know, hearing from someone who's, you know, not just,
- 52:11not just someone who's doing research,
- 52:12but someone who's actually,
- 52:15but worked in palsy, you know, actually, you know, ran and,
- 52:18and and, and seen a lot and and done a lot.
- 52:22And it's so important. I think
- 52:23understanding how Brussels works.
- 52:25I mean, I think and understanding
- 52:27that the European regulatory state is so critical.
- 52:31If, if it's going to be the case that innovation and
- 52:35and growth are gonna be revived in,
- 52:36in Europe in, in some way.
- 52:38So really thank you so much Lewis for, for all you're doing
- 52:41and thank you so much for coming on.
- 52:42This has been a real honor to talk to you.
- 52:45- Thank you. My pleasure.
- 52:47- This is the Capitalism and Freedom
- 52:48in the 21st Century podcast, an official podcast
- 52:50of the Hoover Institution Economic Policy working group
- 52:52where we talk about economics, markets, and public policy.
- 52:55I'm Jon Hartley, your host. Thanks so much for joining us.