Latest / The President's Daily Brief / September 10th, 2026: Iran Hardens Pickaxe Mountain & Netanyahu Faces October 7 Warning Report

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September 10th, 2026: Iran Hardens Pickaxe Mountain & Netanyahu Faces October 7 Warning Report · The President's Daily Brief

0:13
It's Thursday,
0:13
the 10th of September.
0:15
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:17
I'm Mike Baker,
0:18
your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:21
All right,
0:21
let's get briefed.
0:23
First up,
0:24
remember Iran's nuclear program?
0:26
Well,
0:26
it,
0:27
it kind of got pushed off the radar as the
0:29
focus has been on the battle over control for the Strait of Hormuz.
0:33
Now it's back on the radar.
0:35
Iran is reportedly accelerating work at a deeply buried nuclear site near Natanz
0:41
as the US military
0:42
considers how to destroy it.
0:44
I'll have the details
0:45
later in the show.
0:46
A new report claims that the UAE warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
0:52
days before October 7,
0:53
2023
0:55
that Hamas was preparing a major attack.
0:58
It's a report that Netanyahu's office denies.
1:01
Plus North Korea has built another uranium enrichment facility
1:05
as inspectors warn that Kim Jong Un is
1:07
continuing to expand his nuclear weapons infrastructure.
1:11
And in today's Back of the Brief,
1:12
the US military takes out what officials describe
1:15
as a cartel-linked floating gas station
1:18
used to keep drug-running boats at sea.
1:21
But first,
1:22
today's PDB spotlight.
1:24
Iran appears to be accelerating work at Pickaxe Mountain,
1:28
the deeply buried nuclear complex near Natanz
1:31
that US officials have openly discussed targeting,
1:34
and new satellite imagery suggests the activity there is now more intense
1:39
than at any point since construction began.
1:42
According to a new analysis from the
1:43
Center for Strategic and International Studies,
1:46
Iran has dramatically increased activity across the site this year.
1:50
Researchers examined
1:51
6 years of satellite imagery.
1:53
And found heavy traffic across every major road
1:56
leading through the complex along with new paving,
1:59
reinforced access points,
2:00
and significant work
2:02
around the tunnel entrances.
2:04
The pattern suggests Iran may be moving beyond
2:06
the excavation stage and into the actual build out
2:09
of whatever will ultimately operate inside the mountain.
2:12
Piles created by years of digging
2:14
are being removed or flattened.
2:16
Internal roads are being hardened,
2:18
and several entrances appear more heavily reinforced
2:21
than they were even last year.
2:23
For those who have been following this story here on the PDB,
2:26
Pickaxe Mountain is already somewhat familiar.
2:29
The facility sits just south of Natanz and is buried deep inside a granite mountain,
2:34
making it
2:35
one of the hardest targets remaining
2:37
in Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
2:40
What remains unclear is exactly what Tehran intends to put inside this complex.
2:44
Israeli intelligence has reportedly told the US
2:47
that Iran moved centrifuges and centrifuge
2:50
components into Pickaxe Mountain last year.
2:53
But CSIS says the latest satellite imagery cannot confirm that claim.
2:57
In fact,
2:58
analysts found some evidence suggesting the facility
3:00
may not yet be ready for enrichment.
3:03
Construction activity remains intense.
3:05
There has not been a major increase in security posture around the site,
3:08
and
3:09
analysts have not observed the kind of specialized vehicles or equipment
3:13
that they might expect if an
3:14
enrichment operation were already running underground.
3:18
So there's no open source evidence that centrifuges are currently spinning
3:22
beneath Pickaxe Mountain.
3:24
But there is increasingly strong evidence
3:26
that Iran is racing to finish and reinforce the facility,
3:30
and that raises the other half of this story.
3:32
Whether the US can actually destroy it,
3:35
President Trump has repeatedly suggested that
3:37
Pickaxe Mountain could be targeted,
3:39
saying last week
3:40
that the US may strike the site soon.
3:43
But Pickaxe Mountain presents a much harder problem than
3:46
many of the nuclear facilities that the US and Israel have already attacked.
3:51
The largest conventional bunker busting weapon in the American arsenal
3:54
is referred to as the GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator.
3:59
It's a roughly 30,000 pound bomb
4:02
carried by the B-2 stealth bomber.
4:04
It was used during Operation Midnight
4:06
Hammer against Iran's Fordow enrichment site.
4:09
At Fordow,
4:10
the US reportedly dropped multiple massive ordnance
4:12
penetrators onto the same target areas,
4:15
using earlier explosions to create craters that
4:18
allowed later bombs to drive their force deeper underground.
4:22
But Fordow also had identifiable weaknesses.
4:25
Ventilation shafts provided pathways into the underground centrifuge halls,
4:29
and US and Israeli intelligence apparently
4:32
had a detailed understanding of the facility's internal structure.
4:36
Pickaxe Mountain
4:37
may be different.
4:38
Open source estimates suggest that parts of the complex
4:42
could sit roughly 80 to 100 m underground,
4:45
although its exact depth and internal layout
4:48
remain uncertain.
4:49
The mountain itself is granite,
4:50
and the tunnel entrances have been designed with bends.
4:53
That make it harder for missiles or blast waves to travel directly into the complex.
4:58
CSIS notes that even the GBU 57 may not
5:02
be enough to reliably destroy what's buried there.
5:05
That means the objective of a future strike
5:08
might not be to crush the entire facility.
5:10
One alternative would be to attack the tunnel
5:12
entrances and effectively seal Pickaxe Mountain off.
5:17
The US used a similar approach at the
5:18
underground nuclear complex in Isfahan in 2025,
5:22
firing cruise missiles at tunnel portals
5:24
rather than trying to destroy the entire underground structure.
5:28
And that makes the construction that's
5:30
now visible at Pickaxe especially interesting.
5:33
Iran is reinforcing those entrances.
5:35
The roads are being hardened.
5:36
The portals are becoming more heavily protected.
5:39
CNN has reported on a Pentagon document describing
5:42
US preparations for a classified live fire test.
5:46
Intended to validate capabilities against rapidly emerging threats,
5:51
sources familiar with the effort
5:52
said the work was connected to deeply buried
5:55
Iranian facilities and potentially involved simulations of attacks
5:59
against specific nuclear targets.
6:01
So there does appear to be a race underway.
6:04
Iran is
6:05
racing to finish and harden Pickaxe Mountain.
6:07
The US,
6:08
on the other hand,
6:09
is
6:09
racing to determine whether it has a weapon or a combination of weapons
6:13
that can reach it.
6:15
But as always,
6:15
there's a potential logistics issue.
6:18
The US doesn't have an unlimited number of massive ordnance penetrators,
6:22
and the Pentagon is already working to
6:24
replenish the inventory after the strikes on Fordow
6:27
using several of those weapons against a target that
6:29
still might survive.
6:31
It would be an expensive proposition with no guarantee of success,
6:35
which leaves Washington with a difficult problem.
6:38
Iran appears to be putting more
6:39
of its sensitive nuclear infrastructure underground,
6:42
deeper beneath rock and behind reinforced tunnel entrances.
6:46
And every time the US demonstrates how it can defeat one hardened facility,
6:50
well,
6:50
the regime gets another opportunity to study the attack
6:53
and build the next one differently.
6:57
Alright.
6:57
Coming up next,
6:58
a disputed report says the UAE warned Benjamin Netanyahu
7:02
of a major Hamas attack just days before the brutal
7:05
October 7th massacre and hostage taking.
7:08
And later,
7:09
North Korea expands its uranium enrichment program
7:13
again.
7:14
I'll be right back.
7:16
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8:27
We're learning about a report out of Israel that could reshape
8:30
the debate over what Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet knew
8:34
before those 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks.
8:37
The allegation is that Netanyahu was warned that
8:40
Hamas was preparing an operation and that the warning
8:43
came just days before the October 7,
8:45
2023 attacks.
8:46
And according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz,
8:49
which first reported the story,
8:51
That warning came directly from the president of the United Arab Emirates,
8:55
Mohammed bin Zayed.
8:56
Here's what allegedly happened.
8:59
Haaretz reports that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
9:01
told a Palestinian intermediary connected to Fatah,
9:04
which is Hamas's main Palestinian political rival,
9:07
That the terror group was preparing what he called a terrifying operation.
9:12
That intermediary passed the warning to an advisor to the UAE president,
9:16
who then brought it to Bin Zayed.
9:18
Then in late September of 2023,
9:20
the UAE president reportedly spoke with Netanyahu by phone for roughly 45 minutes.
9:26
During that conversation,
9:27
bin Zayed allegedly told the Israeli prime minister that Sinwar,
9:30
who was leading Hamas inside Gaza at the time,
9:33
was preparing a major operation.
9:35
The Emirati president warned that whatever Sinwar
9:38
was planning would lead to bloodshed,
9:40
destabilize the region,
9:41
and threaten the Abraham Accords,
9:43
but Netanyahu reportedly anyway wasn't particularly alarmed.
9:47
According to Hoitz,
9:48
he reacted with relative calm
9:50
and assured Ben Zayed that Israel was prepared for any scenario.
9:54
Netanyahu also reportedly believed that if an attack was coming,
9:58
it was more likely to originate in the West Bank.
10:01
What happened with that warning after the call is just as important.
10:04
Former Shin Bet chief Ronen Barr and former IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevy
10:09
told Garetz they were never informed about it.
10:11
10 days later,
10:12
Hamas attacked southern Israel.
10:14
Roughly 1200 people were killed and
10:16
another 251 were taken hostage in the deadliest attack in Israel's history.
10:22
Now
10:22
Israel's failure to recognize the threat from Hamas
10:25
didn't begin with this alleged phone call.
10:27
We've known for years that
10:29
there were warning signs inside the country's own
10:31
intelligence and security establishment before 7 October,
10:35
but this explosive report adds a potentially
10:37
significant new layer to that history.
10:40
Now based on the reporting,
10:41
there's no indication that the UAE president gave Netanyahu a date,
10:44
a location,
10:45
or any specific operational details
10:48
about what Hamas was allegedly planning.
10:50
The warning was reportedly of a general nature,
10:53
but if Haetz's account is accurate,
10:55
it would mean that Netanyahu was personally warned that Sinwar
10:59
was preparing some kind of major operation
11:01
shortly before Hamas launched its attacks.
11:04
Netanyahu,
11:05
on the other hand,
11:05
is saying that none of this happened.
11:07
His office has called the Haretz report an
11:09
absolute lie,
11:11
saying there was no conversation and no warning.
11:14
Netanyahu says Israeli security officials found no
11:17
record of a call between the two leaders
11:19
during the period in question.
11:21
He's now threatening to sue Haretz for libel,
11:23
calling the report a wicked fabrication
11:26
with clear political timing.
11:28
The UAE isn't formally confirming the account either,
11:32
saying it doesn't comment on private conversations between leaders,
11:35
but the political consequences are already taking shape inside Israel.
11:40
The leaders of four opposition parties issued a joint statement
11:43
demanding an independent investigation into the failures surrounding 7 October,
11:48
writing,
11:48
quote,
11:49
The public in Israel
11:50
deserves to know what happened before,
11:52
during,
11:52
and after the massacre.
11:54
Netanyahu and his partners in the October 7th government
11:57
are unfit to continue in office,
11:59
end quote.
12:00
Gaidi Eizencott,
12:01
the former
12:02
Israeli military chief who's emerged as one of
12:04
Netanyahu's main opponents in the upcoming October election,
12:08
has also accused the Prime Minister of
12:10
ignoring repeated warnings before the attack.
12:12
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was even more direct,
12:15
saying Netanyahu bears personal and direct responsibility for the failure
12:20
that led to the deaths of thousands of Israelis on his watch.
12:24
The fight over an independent investigation predates this latest report.
12:28
Many Israelis have
12:30
spent years demanding a state commission of
12:32
inquiry into the failures surrounding 7 October,
12:35
something that
12:35
Netanyahu has resisted.
12:37
His opponents now say a genuinely independent
12:40
investigation should come after the election,
12:43
and the question of who bears responsibility for 7 October has become
12:46
a central issue in the campaign.
12:49
Netanyahu has argued that Israel's security establishment failed to
12:52
properly warn him about the threat from Hamas.
12:55
He recently claimed security officials deliberately chose not to
12:58
wake him during the early hours of 7 October,
13:01
despite troubling signs coming out of Gaza
13:04
because they feared he would respond aggressively and trigger a war with Hamas.
13:08
Netanyahu said in a campaign video last month,
13:10
quote,
13:11
If they had woken me up,
13:12
everything would have looked different.
13:14
But according to a timeline later released by his own office,
13:17
Netanyahu was woken at 6:29 that morning
13:20
when the attack was already underway.
13:22
He did not immediately order a counterattack,
13:24
and hours passed before he spoke with Israel's military chief of staff,
13:29
and that's what makes this latest
13:30
allegation particularly sensitive for Netanyahu.
13:33
His argument has been that critical warnings failed to reach him before 7 October.
13:38
Haaretz is now alleging
13:39
that one reached him directly from the president of the UAE.
13:43
Now whether that conversation actually happened remains disputed,
13:47
but just weeks before Israelis vote,
13:50
Netanyahu's rivals are making the allegation part of
13:53
the larger argument over who is best suited
13:56
to protect the Israeli people.
13:58
OK,
13:59
I want to shift now to North Korea,
14:01
where we're getting our clearest picture yet
14:03
of a massive new uranium enrichment facility that we
14:06
first discussed back in June of this year.
14:09
The UN's nuclear watchdog has now independently identified
14:13
that building as Yongbyon's second uranium enrichment facility.
14:17
In a report dated the 28th of August,
14:19
the International Atomic Energy Agency,
14:21
the IAEA,
14:23
says North Korea
14:24
appears to have installed centrifuge cascades across both floors
14:28
of the new two-story building with enough room
14:31
for as many as 28 cascades.
14:34
Now there's an interesting part as to how the agency figured this out,
14:38
because the IAEA hasn't had inspectors inside North Korea
14:42
since 2009.
14:44
So for nearly two decades it's essentially been forced to
14:47
monitor Kim Jong Un's nuclear program from the outside,
14:50
piecing together satellite imagery,
14:52
open source material,
14:53
and
14:53
whatever glimpses the regime itself provides.
14:57
And one of those glimpses actually did come courtesy of North Korea.
15:01
When North Korean state media published photographs
15:03
of Kim touring the facility in June,
15:06
IAEA investigators compared what they could see inside those images.
15:10
With satellite photographs taken while the building was under construction,
15:14
according to the IAEA,
15:16
those images show gas centrifuge cascades
15:19
installed across both the upper and lower floors.
15:22
Now,
15:22
in case you're not a nuclear physicist,
15:25
a cascade is essentially a group of
15:27
centrifuges connected together to enrich uranium.
15:30
Those centrifuges spin uranium gas at extremely high speeds,
15:34
gradually increasing the concentration of the isotope needed
15:38
for nuclear fuel and at much higher levels
15:40
nuclear weapons.
15:42
Oh,
15:42
it's like I'm the science guy,
15:44
and this is where the new IAEA findings connect directly to
15:46
what I talked about back in June here on the PDB.
15:50
Analysis from the arms control nonprofit Vertik
15:52
estimated the new Yongbyon facility could
15:54
eventually house more than 9000 centrifuges
15:58
capable of producing roughly 160 kg of highly enriched uranium every year
16:04
combined with North Korea's existing enrichment infrastructure
16:07
that could eventually push Pyongyang's total capacity
16:10
to around 375 kg.
16:14
Now for context,
16:15
the IAEA considers just 25 kg of highly enriched uranium.
16:19
A significant quantity for a nuclear weapon,
16:23
but Yongbyon is only part of what the agency is now seeing
16:26
near Pyongyang.
16:27
North Korea has another enrichment complex
16:29
known as Kangson.
16:31
An annex was constructed there in 2024,
16:34
expanding the available space for enrichment equipment.
16:37
At the time,
16:38
imagery of the construction couldn't tell outside observers
16:41
whether North Korea had actually begun using it.
16:44
Now,
16:44
well,
16:45
there's evidence that it has begun using it.
16:48
The IAEA says there are indications that operations inside
16:51
that expanded annex began in January of this year.
16:55
That means the agency is now tracking ongoing enrichment activity at both Kangson
16:59
and Yongbyon
17:00
as North Korea
17:02
continues expanding its capacity to produce weapons grade nuclear material.
17:06
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says,
17:09
quote,
17:10
The ongoing operation of enrichment facilities at Kangson and Yongbyon.
17:15
And the reported further expansion of North
17:17
Korea's production of weapons grade nuclear material
17:20
is a cause
17:21
for serious concern.
17:23
Well,
17:24
there's a statement of the obvious.
17:25
The agency also says the continued development of North Korea's nuclear program
17:29
violates UN Security Council resolutions,
17:32
and we know how Kim Jong Un
17:34
hates to violate UN Security Council resolutions.
17:38
Pyongyang,
17:38
for its part,
17:39
has made clear it has zero intention of backing down.
17:43
North Korea has declared its status as a nuclear weapons state irreversible
17:47
while rejecting
17:48
the IAEA's authority and arguing the agency has
17:51
no legal right to interfere
17:53
in the affairs of a nuclear weapons
17:55
state outside of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
18:00
Kim already possesses a
18:01
nuclear arsenal capable of threatening American allies across Asia,
18:05
and his regime is continuing to build the infrastructure
18:08
needed to produce even more weapons grade material.
18:12
All right.
18:13
Coming up in the back of the brief,
18:14
the US military is going after the cartel's support network at sea,
18:19
sinking a floating refueling vessel tied to an Ecuadorian crime group.
18:23
More on that
18:25
when we come back.
18:27
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In today's back of the brief,
20:38
US forces have sunk another cartel-linked vessel in the eastern Pacific,
20:43
but this one wasn't a speedboat packed with drugs.
20:46
According to US Southern Command,
20:47
troops with Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere
20:50
intercepted what officials describe as a floating
20:52
refueling station used by Los Choneros,
20:55
one of Ecuador's most powerful criminal organizations.
20:59
The people on board were removed from the vessel
21:01
and turned over to Ecuadorian authorities.
21:03
Once the boat was cleared,
21:05
US forces sank it.
21:06
And this was not an isolated operation.
21:09
There's been a sharp uptick in attacks against these kinds
21:12
of maritime support vessels over the past two weeks.
21:15
SOUTHCOM has announced 6 separate operations against suspected
21:19
cartel refueling stations since the 28th of August,
21:23
including strikes on consecutive days this week.
21:26
That follows a broader US military
21:29
campaign against suspected drug trafficking vessels that
21:32
began in September of last year.
21:34
According to the Associated Press.
21:36
American forces have now carried out at least 68 strikes as part of that campaign,
21:40
killing at least 227 people.
21:44
But the recent operations
21:46
appear to represent a somewhat different approach.
21:48
Instead of simply targeting boats suspected of carrying narcotics,
21:52
the US is increasingly going after the infrastructure that
21:55
allows those boats to operate far from shore.
21:59
Drug traffickers moving cocaine through the eastern Pacific
22:01
often rely on small,
22:03
fast vessels with limited range
22:05
to keep them moving.
22:06
Larger fishing boats and support vessels can wait offshore with fuel and supplies,
22:11
effectively serving as floating gas stations for the speed
22:13
boats carrying drugs toward Mexico and eventually the US
22:18
Ecuadorian officials say this is exactly what
22:20
these recently targeted vessels were doing.
22:23
Los Chorneros,
22:24
the targeted group.
22:25
is a criminal organization that's played a major role in
22:28
Ecuador's worsening security crisis and in international cocaine trafficking.
22:33
The State Department designated Los Choneros as
22:36
a foreign terrorist organization last year,
22:39
citing the group's attacks and threats against government officials,
22:42
judges,
22:43
prosecutors,
22:43
journalists,
22:44
and
22:44
members of Ecuador's security forces.
22:47
Its longtime leader,
22:48
Jose Adolfo Fito Macias,
22:50
was
22:51
extradited to the US in July of last year.
22:54
To face federal drug and weapons charges.
22:56
Now Washington appears to be
22:58
putting increasing pressure on the group's maritime network.
23:02
There's an important caveat here.
23:03
Southcom says intelligence tied these vessels to cartel operations,
23:07
and Ecuador's government has also described several of the
23:10
recent sinkings as part of a joint counter-narcotics effort.
23:14
But some crew members and families involved
23:16
in earlier cases have disputed US allegations
23:18
that they were trafficking drugs.
23:20
After a pause earlier this summer,
23:23
lethal strikes against suspected trafficking boats resumed in August,
23:27
and since then,
23:28
the military has been busy dismantling the
23:31
support vessels that keep those drug boats fueled
23:34
and moving across the Pacific.
23:37
And that my friends is the president's Daily Brief for Thursday,
23:40
the 10th of September.
23:41
Now if you have any questions or comments,
23:43
please reach out to me at PDB@thefirstv.com.
23:47
And if you'd like to experience an ad-free PDB lifestyle,
23:50
well,
23:50
you can do that.
23:51
Just become a premium member
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23:54
by visiting PDBpremium.com.
23:57
I'm Mike Baker.
23:57
I'll be back later today with the PDB
24:00
afternoon bulletin.
24:01
Until then,
24:02
stay informed,
24:03
stay safe,
24:04
stay cool.