Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Cary Artac | Jed Sidwell

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Cary Artac | Jed Sidwell · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's pretty much that for October, at least for the trading month.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: The cattle complex was the horror story today, although grains were at least pretty quiet.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: I've got a cool new Friday segment I'm super psyched to share with you today.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: Then I'll hit a few news items of note, and then I might even drag Jed in to talk a little cattle.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson on your Friday, October 30, 2026.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: Glad to have you along for Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: A new segment coming up today.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get to that right after the settlements.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Carrie Artek has agreed to come in on Friday and help us with just update us on a few specific items in the equities.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: We had uh we're we're calling it our first swing at the segment, and I think it went pretty well.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get to that in just a moment.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: Let me direct you to Agbull.com as always, where you can maximize your chance for success with Agbol Intel, Agbol.com.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: Or uh call uh 855-737 Farm.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: Visit Agbull.com today for all the details on our premium services and on Weissmeyer's content as well, which has flipped to the premium side just recently.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: There's Weissmeyer right there.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: So 250 a year for the AgBull Intel,$199 a year for Weissmeyer's perspectives.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: Heavens, inexpensive for what you get by any measure.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: So go to Agbull.com and check out what we've got for you there.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: Before we get into it, tough day for my sci-fi peeps.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: We lost Sir Patrick Stewart earlier this week.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: Captain Picard.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: To you Star Trek Next Gen fans, but his his acting career and reputation as just as a human being set the gold standard for the rest of us, died at age 86 at his home in Los Angeles.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: Rest in peace, Sir Patrick.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I've worn my uh deep cut here.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: I've worn my Dharmac and Jalad at Tanagra t-shirt in honor of Captain Picard's passing.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: As I said, rest in peace.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: That's a bummer for the sci-fi nerds.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: And I include myself in that.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's talk markets.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Tale of the ticker.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: Corn futures opened the session under a light selling pressure to the tune of two cents lower.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean futures were three to five cents higher.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: Winter wheat futures three to five cents lower, with KC futures leading declines.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: Feeder cattle futures were sharply lower, nearby's falling more than eight bucks right out of the chute.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: Fed cattle and lean hogs were also moderately lower to start the day.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: Now rounding out the lunch hour, corn was still around two cents lower, soybeans still five to six cents higher.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: And winter weed futures had flipped to the plus side of unchanged.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: Cattle futures had trimmed losses earlier in the session, but re-fired their downward trajectory ahead of the noon hour.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: Lean hogs were lower as well at lunchtime.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: Let me get over to my quote screen quickly where I've got December corn futures settled out three and one half cents lower on the day, 447 and three quarters.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: Looks like we've made it down into the 440-ish territory.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: We got a 4-4 handle on the corn futures here.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: I know that there were a lot of analysts looking at the 440-ish level and keeping an eye on it.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll do the same there.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: Down three and a half to 447 and three quarters was the dece corn.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: November, soybean futures two and one half cents higher on the day today, 12.22 and a quarter.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Beans didn't know what to do.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: The May, six cents higher.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: The Jan half cent lower.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: The March, two cents higher.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: And here's the July.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: Dead steady, unchanged is the July at 12.60 and one quarter.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: Your Novi futures 1222 and a quarter, slightly higher at the close.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean meal was moderately higher.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: Excuse me.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: So we got the the meal was lower.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: Oil higher on the day.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: Over to the weeds.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: Get me out of the soybean complex.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: It's Friday.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's Friday, everybody.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: Chicago.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see, December wheat, 603 and a half at the close, down one quarter of one cent.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: Once again, here mixed.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: You get a little bit further out.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: The May was a penny higher.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: The July Chicago wheat, two and a quarter cents higher.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: But our D set 603.5 is down one quarter of one cent.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: And then the KC wheat, a penny lower all the way out to the July looks like the December contract off that penny.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: 644 and one quarter.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get over to the livestocks now.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: This was gnarly.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: It could have been worse.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: Almost limit down in the feeders, but not quite.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: I got November.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: This is the least of it.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: 870 lower.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: 337.77 and one half.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: The Jan 1017 and a half lower.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: The March, 1050 lower.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: The April contract, 1057 and one half lower.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: And all the way out to the May, we're 1032 and one half lower.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: I bet Jed knows exactly what to say after uh today's feeder cattle market action.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: Over to the fats.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: Not quite as bad, but still a heavy day.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: We're at$220.95 at settlement on the D's fat cattle,$5.35 lower on the day.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: Here's your uh your Feb down$5.27.5 at$224.20 and the April$545 lower,$226.62 and one half for your fat cattle.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: And over to the Lean Hog Futures, your December contract, 95 cents lower on the day.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: 58, 87 and 1.5.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: It's not that long ago.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: We were like at 80.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: Whatever.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: February, down 97.5, 63.75.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, looking a little further out the April, buck 12 and a half lower at 69 and 50.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: And that's how the settlements wrapped up.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: I'd like to say real quick, thanks to plus 500 for their support.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: I've said it before, we here at Agble use plus 500 T4 software every day for a host of dandy features, including real-time quotes, futures, options, all kinds of cool stuff.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: T4 software from plus 500, that's plus 500.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: Trust plus 500.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, plus 500.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: All right, I can't wait any longer.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: We uh I teased this earlier just a few moments ago, but we don't spend a ton of time on the equity markets here on AgSquawk, but a friend of mine, a friend of the show, has agreed to help us try to remedy that on Fridays.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: It's something that uh this is a segment I think that we're gonna bring in every Friday.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: Probably, I don't know, leave a comment down below if there's a place to comment.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: If you're watching on YouTube, if you're on the Twitter maker, send us a comment and uh let us know your thoughts.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: But we gave it a shot today, and I feel like it went pretty well.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let's go ahead and roll the clip.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: Can we roll it?
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: Special committees have been convened from SpaceX and from Tesla separately to examine the possibility of merging the two.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: The move would create a tech and aerospace mega juggernaut valued at somewhere between 3.5 and$5 trillion.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: That's trillion with a T here to talk with us about it.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: Carrie Artek from wickedstocks.com.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Carrie, thanks for being with us here on a Friday.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: How's everything, brother?
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Doing great.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having me, Davis.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: I appreciate it.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: You bet.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I know that you watch Tesla pretty closely and SpaceX as well.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: I guess my question to begin the conversation would be: has there been any indication about how investors might feel about this proposed merger in Tesla's performance lately?
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I, you know, I'm a technical analyst, so I look at charts all day long.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, I go out of my way to not follow the fundamentals and the analysts, although I read the financial rag, so I'm not completely uninformed or misinformed.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, I see Tesla at a major pivot point right now that is longer term in the very low 400 region.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think we have a chart or two we could show it in some moment.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then SpaceX, it's such a young company.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'm talking uh publicly traded, the chart.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: You know, do you do you do you have that chart up?
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: Is that is that what I'm looking at?
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: Or I think we've got Tesla weekly chart up here right now.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we do.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, that's a that's a great image to begin with.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's exactly what I'm talking about.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: That is a weekly chart that goes back a few years.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: And if you follow that rising channel bottom that we're now rallied back up to this week explosively, it is uh close, but no cigar.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, this stock is still very susceptible to falling away through the rest of the year and into the first quarter from the low 400 area.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: I've got that 402, 401 zone combination former channel bottom.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: There's a descending trend line there.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: And if we do not close above it today, and this is Friday, if we don't close above 403.79, the susceptibility is to the downside.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: If you're going to take a position one way or the other in Tesla for the next three to five months, it is on the sell side.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: And I do think the 230s are in play over the next, I don't know, six months to a year or so.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: And I do have that chart as well, but it's not necessary.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: No, that's the other one.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: If you can flip to the next, there it is.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: There we go.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: So holding, holding below that 403.79.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: Now we don't have a sell signal on a near-term basis, but this is where you set a short position.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: We've been telling our uh followers on YouTube, we do Tesla every day, that from here, believe it or not, we can fall back to 230 or so.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: And you can see how Tesla has plenty of precedent for that kind of a swing.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't think it's off the mark to suggest that is a real possibility.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: On the other hand, and if you want to go back to that chart you just showed, if we can close above 403.79, this rally is for real.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: And that is a six-year channel top that would be new all-time highs.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, this would be, I think, consistent with a merger.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know how soon this merger may play out, but I would expect the 550s within about six months or so of closing above 403.79.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: That is a six-year long-term channel top that can contain annual buying pressures when tested.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: So we're at a we're at a pivot point right now in Tesla.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: It can go either way, but as long as we don't close above 403.79, uh, I'm on the sell side of this stock.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think I've got some uh some SpaceX charts here.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: You do.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: You can throw any.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: Can we hop into those right quick too?
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: Sure, absolutely.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: SpaceX has been around since what, the June IPO.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: And you can see we're in the midst of a sell signal this week.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: If we close below that channel bottom, that channel held to the upside about a month ago.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's now around 186.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: And if we close it below 145 today, if you go to the next chart in SpaceX, it shows the target.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, I and this could all play out in a matter with present volatility.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: This could be a three to five week move.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: This could all happen before any sort of formal rollout or or anticipation of a merger could play out where we fall back into the low 100s.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: I don't see any tea leaves here.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: There's just not enough data in SpaceX to really make an educated guess in terms of uh what is the condition of SpaceX.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, if I had to take a position in SpaceX, I would be short SpaceX below the 145 area, expecting the low 100 region again over the next um, this could be within three to five weeks, could be a couple of months, something like that.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: By the end of the year, I think would be realistic.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: That is the technical outlook for both stocks, but I didn't know if you wanted to dive at all into you know the the merger itself or any conversation with respect to that.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: I guess uh well, a little bit, and I don't want to push you too far outside of your scope here.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let's let's go here.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's early going in this whole merger conversation.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_01: I've read that a possible merger would likely be pushed into summer of 2027.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a football question right across the center of the plate here for you, Carrie.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: Could we expect perhaps some increased volatility for Tesla and or for SpaceX as these discussions continue?
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: Boy, you know, increased volatility, they are already both very volatile stocks.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, just today we've got like a 10% swing almost in Tesla, five or seven percent swing.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: And we're seeing this on a week by week basis.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: So any greater volatility, I don't know.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think a surprise announcement either way.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't want to, I I couldn't see that.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think they're both very volatile stocks right now.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: They're both prone to moving, you know, 20 to 50 percent in a matter of weeks and months.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: So, and you don't see that a lot in in an SP 500 stock like like Tesla is part of the SP 500.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's something I did want to mention too.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: I do think, and this is bandied about in some of the podcasts and stuff, that I think one of Musk's motives in combining the two is he can then put as a combined company, the SP 500 index has disallowed SpaceX by their rules.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know exactly what all those bullet points are, but I do know that if it merges, there is a law within their committees that says if one company uh buys a pre-existing listed company in the SP 500.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: So if, in other words, SpaceX buys Tesla, which is already part of the SP 500 index, then the combined have a right to be part of that index.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: The committee would have to vote on it, but there is the very real possibility that with inclusion of the two into the SP 500 in the index, this is a boon for SpaceX because it's just sort of, you know, you you'll have a lot of institutional funds that'll be obliged to buy large quantities of this combined company just so that there's a correlation in their uh in their index funds.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: So this, I think this is one of the one of the drivers for Musk.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's not said much, but I think that this is one of the drivers for him.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's all kinds of other benefits too in combining the two.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: You've got cross-pollination with research and development.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you can take money from one and put in the other.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Tesla is a profitable company still.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: He can move uh some of those profits into space exploration without raising a lot of eyebrows.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: You know, he can do that all internally.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: So those are other benefits I think that he has.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: But I think just from, you know, they'll they'll probably see just a base of a base of support that will emerge if this joint company is then included in the SP 500 index.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the chances are better than half that that would be then included.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, very good.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and that sort of answers uh one final question that I might have had, and that is uh, you know, I was always taught diversification is is a key pillar of risk management.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: Don't put all your chickens in the same bucket kind of a thing here.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: But uh if if there's a wrinkle there with uh with the SP 500, that uh that that makes sense to me.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: Kerry, uh I'm gonna cut you loose there.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate your thoughts on all of this.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: Wickedstocks.com is where you can check out Carrie for uh more information on this and a whole lot more wickedstocks.com.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Carrie RTech, for being here this morning.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: Not too shabby, right?
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: That was great stuff on Tesla and on SpaceX, the possible merger.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you've heard about this or not.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: And as as we discussed, and I think Kerry had had read the same thing too, we're we're looking out to June or July 2027, summer of 2027, before any anticipated merger might take place, but they have convened special uh committees both at Tesla and at SpaceX to discuss this.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Musk is a is a majority shareholder, so apparently he's he's ineligible for for these discussions, and I think that's fair.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's probably wise and above board and and all of that.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: I imagine there are probably rules too.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not even not even sure.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: Now I'm getting way off my own scope here, but something to watch and great to hear from from Kerry Artak.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: A heck of a good guy, uh technical analyst that that never fails to deliver.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: I want to talk to him again next week in a similar segment.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: And I've got kind of in the back of my mind, no guarantees, but but I think I might steer him toward retail stocks as we get here at the the cusp of the Christmas shopping season.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe some of you have already started.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: I have not yet.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: My list is small, though.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's small.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the you know, I've got the dog.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe he needs a new collar.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: Something nice for the wife, of course.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_01: But as we get into shopping season, it'd be interesting to talk about some retail trends, and then maybe we can revisit those once we get on the other side of the new year.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: Carrie Artek will be back with us next Friday to talk about perhaps some retail stuff, or if something else is more important between now and then, we'll certainly hit that.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, let me move on to just a couple of news items here, and then I'm gonna bring in Jed to talk cattle with us.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_01: We got to find out what was with the uh the pressure on cattle today.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: But let's go here.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: USDA has confirmed, and I don't know if this is related.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: This is just the the first one off the top of my news list here.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: USDA has confirmed Arizona's first case of New World Screwworm, raising concerns about the parasite's potential spread into American livestock herds.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: USDA's animal and plant health inspection service announced Wednesday that laboratory testing confirmed the parasite in a dog in Cochise County near the Mexican border.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: The detection makes Arizona the third state now to report an animal infection following cases in Texas and in New Mexico.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: In other news, fertilizer prices continued climbing in October.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: It gives me no joy to report this, but you gotta know, you gotta know, adding pressure to American farmers already struggling with tight profit margins and elevated production expenses.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: According to DTN's latest retail fertilizer survey, seven of eight major fertilizers increased in price compared with the previous month.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: UAN 28% recorded the largest increase, climbing 6% to an average of$447 per short ton during the third week of October.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: As soon as I get some fresh fertilizer numbers on the retail level, I will absolutely bring them to you, good or bad.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: I don't expect to see a decline in fertilizer prices, even as we're finishing up harvest here, and we'll get it we'll get a little bit of a demand spike toward uh toward the end of the year here if the uh if the application window remains open.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_01: USGA says temporary diesel fuel tax relief could save American farmers and transportation operators more than six hundred forty million dollars during the current agricultural harvest season.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: Ag Secretary Rollins announced Thursday that 31 states have taken or announced measures supporting the federal government's emergency-died diesel relief initiative.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_01: U.S.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_01: economic growth soared in the third quarter, but agriculture continues to outshine the general economy in trade.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: The ag trade deficit continues to drop, forecast down in fiscal 2026 by 42% from last fiscal year, almost cutting that trade deficit in half from last fiscal year.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: While the president's tariff policies remain controversial, U.S.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: trade rep Jameson Greer told the Senate Finance Committee this summer, quote, we are committed to continuing to use tariffs and to negotiate deals to support the reindustrialization of our economy, protect American workers, and increase their wages and shrink our trade deficit.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: And coming to you from out of left field, here's one more before we get to Jed.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_01: Quebec's Maple Syrup Producers Association says the province's strategic syrup reserve may run dry this winter due to unusually high demand.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: American buyers have been ordering and stocking up their inventories in large amounts, fearing possible trade war shortages or a spike in prices.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: European demand has also been unusually high.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: Eastern Canada supplies more than 70% of the world's maple syrup market.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: Chris Hutchinson, a maple syrup producer in Nova Scotia, says European buyers use maple syrup in a range of products, including flavoring, a natural sweetener, or an alternative to processed sugar.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: Maple syrup, uh maple syrup shortage, perhaps coming our way on dwindling supplies in Canada.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, with that, let's see if we've got Jed.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: Jed Sidwell standing by.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: You'd probably just as soon be taking a nap right now, but you've taken some time to help us out with this cattle market here, because I don't know what's going on.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: Big fall off today.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: Didn't quite go limit down in the feeders, but doggone it, too close for my comfort.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the afternoon show.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: And can you can you tell us what the heck happened in cattle?
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, man, it it's been brutal this past week, especially after that cattle on feed report we got last week, Davis.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, Friday, we get this incredibly bullish report saying, you know.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_02: These placements, these low placement numbers that we've had for so long have finally had an impact on the total cattle supply.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_02: Mike Sands and I talked about that at length on our Fat Tuesday show.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_02: And I encourage you, we made that one free to the public.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_02: If you're a listener, go ahead and watch that on Ag Bull.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_02: Just giving it away.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_02: Just giving her away for free.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_02: Out of one.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_02: But with that, we've haven't essentially seen the decrease in the cattle on feed numbers to the extent of which the decrease we've been putting cattle on feed because we've been stretching them out for the longer duration of feeding time.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_02: We're pushing cattle to extreme weights, extreme days on feed, all to kind of, you know, take advantage of the opportunity cost of trying to replace those cattle.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_02: And right now it is super expensive to try and go and finance and buy a set of feeder cattle to replace ones that you sell to the packer.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_02: And you know, Davis, empty feed yards just don't make money.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_02: So that's the problem that we've had right now.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_02: And we get this report, um, incredibly bullish report that says, you know, we have this decrease of cattle on feed, and something that we maybe were hoping for a while would finally kind of shine through in the total overall numbers, and it did.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_02: And man, we have not seen the rally from it this week.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_02: It has gone down hard.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_02: Um, a few things on my list here to talk about packer margins have dipped into the red.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_02: I talked about that a while ago.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_02: That, you know, we'd like to keep those Packers making the right amount of money, not too much, not too little.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_02: And back in the red, not a good thing to see there.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_02: Because of that, the slaughter numbers have gone down the daily slaughter count, way down from where it was a week ago, and especially compared to a year ago.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_02: And then the big announcement comes from Secretary Rollins and JD Vance announcing that we're going to see a new plant in Demmitt, Texas, two or 400 head, 220 new jobs, all backed by the government.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_02: They're floating the bill on that one to help kind of finance some local cattle feeders to open their own plant down there.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_02: That have has everyone just a little bit spooked in terms of, you know, kind of a disruption in the system.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_02: You know, when the government gets involved in agricultural markets, it can do some interesting things.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not sure if you've ever been to a sugar beet plant, but they haven't been just thriving here the past couple years.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: What is it that uh Reagan said?
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: Some of the scariest words in the English language are I'm from the government and I'm here to help.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, don't help us.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and in a time of short supply, I mean, is is more shackles really what the industry needs?
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_02: No, I mean, obviously, we want to see these Packers make money because they're the ones that have to float the check to us at the end of the day.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_02: And I'm pro-ag, and I want to see, you know, some more control and when it comes to production agriculture, having some more control into the means of production in terms of how their product is sold.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_02: But at the end of the day, I'm gonna steal a line from John Campbell.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um he's a guy that likes to talk on the internet about feeder prices quite a bit.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_02: He's got a pretty interesting rant, it's pretty funny most of the time.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_02: He's he said once a long time ago, that at the end of the day, we're cattlemen.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_02: Cotton producers don't go and complain about the price of underwear and try to sell underwear door to door.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_02: Us as cattle producers, we don't have to worry about the price of ribis.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_02: We're not ribeye salesmen, we're cattle producers.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_02: That's maybe a bit extreme, but at the same time, we have to remember our cog and the wheel is much different than that of the packer.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's pretty good perspective right there.
• 25:44
  unknown: Yeah.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, real quick, I don't know how uh how much concern the uh the industry has, or or maybe just speak personally about a uh screwworm infection in a dog, Cochise County, Arizona, but I I do recall reporting on a third crossing, opening up a third spot for Mexican feeder cattle to make their way across the border.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think was just earlier this week that I reported on that.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: With the news of an infection in a third state now, should we expect to see maybe a slowdown, maybe pull it back just a little bit on some of these border openings?
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I I don't think we will.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_02: At the end of the day, and I don't want to make this light, Davis.
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I I come from a long line.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_02: I am the first Sidwell male to have an office job.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_02: Everyone before this, including myself, you know, we're long time just stockmen and agriculturalists.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_02: We take animal husbandry very, very seriously.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_01: You're still plenty, you're still plenty western, Jet.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_02: I can't confirm.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_02: Still plenty western here.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_02: And I care about animal husbandry, I'd probably say more than the next person.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_02: But at the end of the day, Davis, it's a long ways from their heart.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_02: It's a long ways from their heart.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_02: And it's an infestation and it's a foreign bug, and we want to see it controlled.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_02: But at the end of the day, I think we got way bigger problems to worry about than a screw worm.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_02: Right now, the Mexican border uh is chipping away.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_02: We're seeing some decent numbers come through finally, but still not near those levels that we had before we shut down the border.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_02: And I think it's because the market's changed.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_02: The Mexican cattle feeder has gotten more efficient.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_02: They've seen a decrease in their cow herd as well.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_02: They just can't push across the same cattle that they once did.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: You got big plans for the weekend, buddy?
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, I don't know.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_02: Might go around.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_02: I think uh there's some different livestock judging contests and stuff happening this weekend.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_02: There's one in South Central Illinois that I think I might go hang out at this weekend.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_02: Might be kind of fun.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_02: Well, that sounds cool.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: That sounds good.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: Well, let me ask you this.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_01: Since I've got you here on the line now, you know you're not getting away without answering.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I know.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: If you look out your window, Judge.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: What's the weather look like there?
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_02: You're in Joliet, yeah?
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we are in Joliet America.
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_02: I am about one half mile from the Joliet prison where they shot Blues Brothers.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, don't kidding.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, right.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_02: Right, right down the road from the historic Joliette prison.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_02: And uh yeah, it's been unusually warm for fall.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_01: Same here, same here.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_01: I I don't know if we're gonna get to 80.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: We did, I think we did yesterday here in KC.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: We're we're mid-70s today, but uh, it does look like there's some some rain headed in, and they're getting quite the rain down there in Texas.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_01: The National Weather Service is highlighting that heavy rainfall threat over portions of the plains and desert southwest today.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: Over the next six to twelve hours, localized to scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible over portions of the central and southern plains as slow-moving showers and thunderstorms gradually lift northeastward today.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: The flow will gradually shift eastward, with showers and thunderstorms extending into the rest of the plains and the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: A few uh items of mild interest this day in uh it's October 30, this day in history, 1735.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's the birthday of John Adams, American lawyer, politician, and second president of the United States.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: Jed, um, I found a quote from John Adams here that I just I just couldn't get past.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna read it for you.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna read it for you.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: This from John Adams quote There is nothing I dread so much as the division of the Republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader and concerting measures in opposition to each other.
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our constitution.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just gonna leave that right there as we as we get ready to get out and vote.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: Huh.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: Interesting.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: October 30, 1938, actor Orson Wells announced that Martians were invading New Jersey, leading horrified listeners to believe that Earth had been attacked by hostile aliens.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: Instead of a simple dramatization, the program was presented as a real-time news report.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: According to a transcript of the program, the dramatic show, which was created for CBS, uh, was the first of its kind in the history of broadcast television.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: People thought it was really real.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_01: They thought we were really being invaded by aliens from outer space.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_01: And finally, one more.
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: 1945, Jackie Robinson of the Kansas City Monarchs signed a contract for the Brooklyn Dodgers, breaking the major league color uh baseball color line.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_01: That was back in 1945.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_01: We here in KC are uh very proud of Jackie Robinson and all the others in that league.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thanks, Jed, for being here.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for being here.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: Let me uh take a moment and thank Trade the News.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_01: We here at uh AgSquawk and Ag Bull.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_01: Use Trade the News to keep us on top of the news.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_01: News you can actually use.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_01: Use Trade the News for useful news.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you to Trade the News.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, if you haven't had a chance, go to AgBull.com.
• 31:13
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• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: Visit AgBull.com or call 855-737 Farm.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_01: Agbull in the AM will set you up bright and early Monday morning.
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_01: Then I'll have a conversation with Chris Robinson from Robinson Ag Marketing Monday afternoon.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for being here.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_01: Have a safe and happy weekend.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_01: Appreciate you, everybody.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_01: Come on back Monday for more Ag Squawk.