Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - The Worst Version Of Trump We’ve Seen In An Election Year… One Week Out From The Midterms

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Super Tuesdays - The Worst Version Of Trump We’ve Seen In An Election Year… One Week Out From The Midterms · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: One week away. Welcome to Super Tuesdays.
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: That is Chuck Todd. I am Chris Lizzo.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Like, comment, subscribe at your favorite podcast app. Chuck, if
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: your life is anything like mine, and I think it's
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: probably very similar to mine at this point, the thing
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: everyone asks me, and I didn't prep you for this,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: but I know you'll be ready for it.
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: People say all the time, and maybe it's just because
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: we're like a suspicious, conspiracy-laden people, but people say it. Well,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: what's the big thing that's going to drop between now
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: and the election? I always say, like, I don't know
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: if I did. I wouldn't be in this business. But
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I want to ask you outside of like, you know,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: a natural disaster or something we really can't see coming.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Is there anything that could change sort of what we think?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: is the direction of this election at this point. And
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I'll broadly say the direction of this election being all
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the signs appear, polling, prediction markets, early vote to the
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: extent that it can be a little bit misrepresentation, but
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: they all seem to be pointing, this is a good
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: election for Democrats, could be a very good to great election.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Tell me, what are we missing? Or is there something
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: out there that you're like, well, if this.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: Happens- Well, you know, it's like, what if he had
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: cut a trade deal with Canada and ended the Iran war, right?
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Like those were the two things sitting out there that
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: you thought, you know, could that at least calm his
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: base down and maybe make people think, and particularly Iran, right?
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: If Iran could look like, if he could somehow get
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: a deal with Iran that made it seem as if
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: this was worth it, I guess you could say, but
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: you know, I look at the last 10 days of
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Trump and this has been the worst version of Trump
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: in an election year we've ever seen. Meaning like, and
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: I've thought about this, you know, Trump is very good
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: as a candidate when he's got something to run against.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: And he's been very bad when he has to defend, right? 18,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: he struggled. He did caravan. And certainly the Senate map
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: gave them an opportunity. And that was a blue.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: You know, it's funny.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: And this gets it to a theory, just a theory,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: one of the various theories I have that this election
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: could be. I'm not guaranteeing it, but it's sort of. So,
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: for instance, 2018 was a wave in the blue states,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: but not in the red states.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Yep, that's right.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: And we saw this, right? 40 house seats almost all
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: coming from sort of suburban. And it's certainly in the
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: blue and purple areas, it.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Was a wave. And yet R plus two in the Senate.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: This like I have this theory that like Democrats could
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: perform better in the red states than the blue states.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: You know, you look at you look at Maine and Michigan.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: If they put it this way, Democrats don't win the Senate.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: It's because of the underperformance in Maine and Michigan. It's
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: not going to be like.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: A Minnesota on the far end.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Same point.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Same point.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: It's another it's sort of an underperformance.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: And the less electable candidates are in Minnesota. It's the
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: three progressives, Peggy Flanagan, Abdul El-Sayed and Troy Jackson.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: If Angie Craig, Haley Stevens and, you know, generic Dem.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Janet Mills.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Maybe Janet Mills.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: Maybe.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Although I don't know. She probably could have won the primary, but.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe throw in a Pingree. I don't know. Or like,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: what's his name? How about Jared Golden? I was going
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: to say Jared Golden would. Let's go with Jared.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Either way.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: The point is, Angie Craig, Haley Stevens, Jared Golden. We wouldn't.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: those three races would be in Georgia territory at the moment.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: They would be more Georgia, North Carolina. So the fact
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: of the matter is, the weakest candidates on the Democratic
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: side are in the blue states. The weakest incumbent governor
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: in the country is a Democrat in the state of Oregon.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: So you see this versus the red states where the
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Democrats are running really smart races.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Going towards the voters, trying to.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: And in some cases, some of these candidates are running
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: just terrible races, Roger Marshall.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: And then you have perhaps the best two candidates– the best,
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: the most competitive race in the country– in the red states,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: for me, is Turek Hinson.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. 100%.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: And they're both good. They're both running A campaigns.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: And one of you is going to lose.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: And it's simply because either the environment took you down,
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump either takes down Hinson, or there just wasn't
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: enough Democrats, enough Republicans to cross over to vote for Turek.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: But the point is, is that they're Like, that's probably,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to think of where else would I say.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: No, that's the race with the two best candidates. In
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: most other places- there's a strong or a weak, or
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: there's an environment. Like I would say, I think Sununu
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: is probably a stronger candidate, Pappas is a little bit
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: of a weaker candidate.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but I don't think Pappas is not that, right,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: I think Pappas is a little weak.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm saying, like I can't think of
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: a good example, because Flanagan is weak, Tafoya is good. High,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: high performers. Yeah, right.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: There's not many.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: It is turret, right, to me, Iowa's the one. Yeah,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: because like Tallarico, good candidate, Paxton, bad candidate. Roy Cooper,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: good candidate, Watley, bad candidate. Hamilton, Marshall, right, right, right, right.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you go right down. That's really interesting.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: You go right down the line there. Talk about your point.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Talk about your point about, because I'm intrigued by this.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: We talked last week about like, is Donald Trump on
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: the campaign trail a good thing if you're a Republican?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Talk about your, pull on the string of the worst
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: version of him. What do you mean by that? Well,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: he's just not on message.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: He said over the weekend, I know I'm not supposed
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: to say this and the fake news is going to
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: twist what he has to say, but we're freaking making
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: a lot of money.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: And you're like, you're making a lot of money.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Trump right now, 80 year old
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Trump is like any of us that have had an
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: 80 year old grandparent, which is the filter is dropped.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: And so he says everything that comes into his head.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: And he always sort of said everything that came to
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: his head, but he used to, you know, I think
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: about October, 2016, after October 7th, which before October 7th
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: in Israel, we had October 7th in 2016, which is
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: the single most consequential day in American political history. It's
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: WikiLeaks and the Access Hollywood tape.
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Both on the same day. I think the idea that
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: they are connected is probably pretty high. But no coincidences
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: in politics, people.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: They're just aren't.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Not like that. Not at that level.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Access Hollywood tape comes out and oh, suddenly we get
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: the WikiLeaks. Oh, that's interesting.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: But it was a consequential day. And from that day forward,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump was the least provocative he had ever been
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: on the campaign trail. Kellyanne Conway reined him in. By
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: the end of it, he's apologized. He claims that Barack
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: Obama was born in the United States.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: Twenty twenty four in October of twenty twenty four. He's
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: doing it at McDonald's drive through. He's in a garbage truck.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: He's on a great way to end.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: He is.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: He was he was. Versus, you know, even twenty eighteen
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: talking about caravan, at least he was on a message
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: when it came to immigration.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: This is the worst version of him, right?
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: This is, this is Donald Trump circa December, 2020 through
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: January of 2021, where he was the worst version of himself.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: It's the lowest rating he ever had is in that
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: period until now.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: And, you know, we're getting the worst version of him
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: at a time. And it's, it's, you know, you just
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: sit there and you're like, boy, It's going to be
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: really easy to write the story if this is a
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: really bad night for Republicans. Well, we saw the signs.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: Even the Trump rallies didn't have the same energy, didn't
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: have the same turnout, et cetera, et cetera. And I
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: think about that, right? I'm going to give you various scenarios.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: Is there enough evidence to support that scenario, right? And
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Republicans end up having a better than expected night. What's
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: the explanation?
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: It's hard to come up with one, right? It's hard
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: to see how, you know.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I don't... Because he doesn't... I don't... He doesn't... To
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: your point, you can't really... Let's say they have a
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: better night. It's hard to say, well, Trump, he did...
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: The old salesman closed strong because... By the way, while
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: you were talking, I was searching through my trash because
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I wrote down earlier today on this post-it note all
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: the messages other than affordability or cost or anything like that.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to run through a few from the
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: last couple of days. Nicki Minaj's butt. Houston's butt. Ilhan Omar.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Norway is a shithole country because they didn't give him
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the Nobel Prize. John Ossoff is not as handsome as
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: he says. Trump said he doesn't really care about gas prices.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: He thought they would be much higher because we have
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: to keep a nuclear bomb from Iran. Talking about his
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: cognitive tests. And then in Michigan over the weekend, talking
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: about Abdul El-Sayed is a jihadist. None of the affordability messaging,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: to the extent he even mentions it. I mean, it's
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: like mentioned in passing. He clearly doesn't feel strongly about it.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: None of that is what's getting attention.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Well, actually, Kevin Hassett went on Fox Business with Larry
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Kudlow and said it's a myth.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Affordability is a myth. I'm amazed that Kevin Hassett still
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: has a job because he continues to say stuff like that.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: And it's so tone deaf because it's an audience of one.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I know you're right.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: So what do you mean?
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It's always the answer. You're right. No, you're right.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: It's it's he has to say these things. And, you know,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: I can't believe. Look, a lot of people I know
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: in this world. had a lot of high regard for
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Kevin Hassett. And he is somebody who learned at the
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: foot of people like Bernanke and Greenspan. And this is
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: a well-respected economist who has just gone, you know, who got,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: you know, there's the ring.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: And suddenly 100 percent, totally native to try to stay
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: close to Trump.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: And he's done it. And, you know, it's funny, you know,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Kevin Hassett wrote a. book after the first term that
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: it's clear he didn't think Trump was ever coming back. But,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: you know, because he just sort of he didn't say
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: anything negative about Trump, but he sort of painted the
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: chaotic picture that we all thought was taking place. It
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: just was kind of a dry book. So it didn't
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: get a lot of attention. But I mean, I think
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: they've I I do think this is a this is
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: a case where Trump and he's just I mean, he
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: really is a cliche, but he's surrounded by billionaires. He's
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: surrounded by people who are doing well. The stock market
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: is doing well if you have money in it and
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: you have absorbed the inflation. And this gets at to
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: this economy that literally, this is why- Voters under 45
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: are on fire. And if they come in– to me,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the difference between a wave and a tsunami is going
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: to be whether the voters under 30 make up 15
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: percent of the electorate or 13 percent of the electorate.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: But even at 13 percent of the electorate– They have turned–
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the Harvard poll last week, they have turned.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Drastically against him. They've turned young Latinos– I mean this–
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: As I say, look, we joke about reading tea leaves, right? Well,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: the tea leaves are things like the early vote. The
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: tea leaves are things like, you know, what demographic groups
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: are more fired up, what demographic groups are less fired up.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: And it is, you know, other than nostalgia for pulling
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: errors of the past, I don't know what actual piece
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: of data somebody can point to me and say, here's
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: a counterfactual. The only counterfactual is, yeah, but it happened before.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: And I'm sitting here going, You know, the likelihood of
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: polling error could be on the other side. Of course.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, we know polling has some level of margin
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: of error built into it, but don't always assume it's
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: going to work for you.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Well, it's not only that. Pollsters are aware of this
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: polling error issue.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: And at some point, there's going to be an overcorrection.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: We might be at that point. I think that's a great,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I was talking to a mutual friend of ours and
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: we were kind of just trying to go through the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: devil's advocate, exactly what you just said.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: Like, where is their data?
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Not just like somebody on television being like, I don't know,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I think Trump is coming back or whatever. Where is
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: their actual data to support the idea that there's Republicans
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: are being undervalued broadly right now. And the only thing
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: we could come up with Candidly, generic ballot and presidential
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: approval and re-redistricting and where the races are and money.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: The only thing that we could come up with was
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: there's a polling error. That's the only real– for someone
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: who's not a partisan, that's really what, if you're a Republican,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: you have to bank on right now because Trump is not–
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: And that's that's a hell of a thing to bank on, Chuck.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, no, I think so, too.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. I was obviously I watch a
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: lot of college football.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: I went to we were we were in Texas this
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: weekend visiting our son. And so we were at the
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: SMU Cal game. That was the noon game. But we watched,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, we're all college football fanatics. So we were
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: watching 3.30 games and then the 7 p.m.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Games.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: 3.30 games included, I think, Iowa, Minnesota was one. So
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: I saw a lot of Iowa political ads. We've learned
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: all these college football, even though they're nationally televised, they're
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: all these super facts.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: I watch every Texas A & M game and I
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: have seen so many packs in the television.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: So you saw a lot of it. And I saw
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: a lot of, obviously, attack ads on Hinojosa as well,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: right from Abbott. I find what was interesting is that
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: all of the Republican messaging is kind of the same,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: which is, hey, don't you remember why you didn't like
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: the Democrats before? So it's on. Hey, there's this one
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: guy was running, you know, Tallarico once was supported by
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: somebody who wanted to defund the police.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the Tarrant County Sheriff. Yeah, he's got like
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: the big badge.
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: And then there's like the attack on Ina Osa is,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: you know, she wants to raise taxes someday. You know,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: it's sort of like, she's not afraid of taxes, you know?
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: And you're like, I see what you're doing. but you're
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: just sort of doing generic base Republican. Hey, don't you
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: remember when the border was not secure? Don't you remember
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: when you didn't like them? And it's all nostalgia. It's
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: not addressing the concern of the moment. There was not
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: a single ad from a Republican that said, we know
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: it's tough out there right now, but these policies, you know,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: we are working and that's why we did this. And
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: the next thing that's coming, and I know it's not
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: here yet. There's none of that. And it's what I
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: would be doing if I were Ashley Henson. It's what
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: I'd be doing if I were like, look, this isn't easy,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: but they're not running that. They're all just deciding. And
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: I understand this, the conventional wisdom, midterm election, just get
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: your voters out. And they don't, I guess they're afraid
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: of talking about affordability to their voters. So instead talk
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: about immigration taxes and crime. Okay, I just don't see it.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: No, I wondered that too. And the only thing I thought, Chuck,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: is like, If Paxton has an ad where he– probably
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: not him talking on camera because he's not great on camera,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: but a Paxton ad– Oh, my God.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't put him on that.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: No.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: No. I don't think they even use his voice. Troy Jackson,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: it's a milk carton. Nobody's putting him on TV ads
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: in Maine. Not being seen in months.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: No.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: But I wondered– I was like, why are they not
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: doing a like– President Trump's policies are working, but we
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: need more time. You know, something like, to your point,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: some kind of message that's like, we're in process of
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: addressing affordability.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: Well, have you seen the Trump super PAC ads? It's secure.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: It's all about immigration.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: You know, it's it's it's interesting.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: And I wonder whether it's like because you have the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: president of the United States going around and saying affordability
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: is a Democratic hoax that you can. I mean, I
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: don't know why you wouldn't. It's clearly the issue of
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the overarching issue with with like, you know, secondary the
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: sous chef of corruption.
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: But like and they're just not. And it's hard when
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: he comes in. He's going to be in he's going
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: to be in Texas today. Right. You know, it's hard
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: when he does these events and you know he's going
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: to say the same thing he always says, which is like,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: I never heard the word affordability before I got elected president.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Now these Democrats and it's like, dude, it's so dissonant.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: But I don't get it.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I thought to myself for the first time, my gosh,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I think Tallarico may win because the end of that
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Paxton ad or one of the Paxton ads or a
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Texas pack, some Republican ad, it's just Tallarico in a mask.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Did you see that one? Yeah. It just ends. He
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: has like a mask on. And I'm like, well, I mean,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: talk about like lowest common denominator.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: This guy wore a mask.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: And that's an interesting thesis that these guys follow. They
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: feel like they can't talk about affordability because Trump says
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: it's not– it's a joke or it's a myth.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: It's just hard.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting theory.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: There's no messaging from the top that says like– a
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: normal president would say something like– would talk more about
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: the one big beautiful bill off the top and have
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: like an actual message that he drove about like we're
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: getting there and Democrats are opposing us and that's why
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: we need to keep control. But there's none of that.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I mean there's– it's just– Yeah. It's baffling to me.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't like just from a political strategy standpoint,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: I don't get it.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: Well, here's the other thing of why I don't think
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: there's polling error here and why I think like what
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: the environment is, is what the environment is. It's like this,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: you know, the voters behaved rather normally in 24, which
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: was they didn't like the economy. They didn't like the
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: direction of the president.
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: And they switched horses and they didn't vote for Trump 2.0.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: They thought they were getting Trump 1.0.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Trump 1.0 pre-COVID. And they didn't get Trump.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: And this is why by the time Democrats, by the
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: time we had the first real races of 25, remember,
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: I think we forget those were wipeouts in Virginia and
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: New Jersey. And while Virginia, you could write off to
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: a bad Republican nominee- bad campaign with Winston Merle Sears.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: That is not what folks were expecting in New Jersey.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: And he had done much better in New Jersey than
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: he had four years ago. So the rejection, A, the
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: firing up of the Dems and the independents against Trump,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: coupled with the lack of Republican turnout by the end
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: of 25, when he had already done Liberation Day. So
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: he'd already kind of, and he'd already bombed Iran.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: In July of that year too, right? So, you know,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: there's not a single, again, I'm looking for the counterfactual
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: and whether every midterm has been, you know, that has
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: been a big wave has been preceded by a 2025
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: year that was directionally very similar.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: And so you look at that, you look at all
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: the specials, you look at, you know, The counterfactual that
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: sits out there is this Elon Musk money. But I
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: have to tell you.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: I just don't. There's so much money.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: Well, and I also don't. Can I say something else
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: about the money? Strategically, this financial advantage that Republicans had,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: the problem was it's like saving your timeouts for the
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: last sometimes.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Totally agree. Too late in the game.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Where you're like, well, now you know you have too
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: much money and not enough places to use it i
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: think they didn't use their money soon enough michigan is
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: a perfect example go out and define them all syed
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: they let talarico define paxton they let this was strategically
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: a really poorly and part of it again we know
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: those guys in the in the house in the senate
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: side on the republican side They're not idiots. The problem
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: is this thing has been run by the idiots in
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: the White House. And Donald Trump, you know, won't you know,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: this has just been a really poorly run, you know,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: messaging and strategic campaign. And again, I don't I think
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: Chris Lasavita knows what he's doing. It means that there's
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: only certain things they feel like they can do because
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: Trump will literally crap on them. if they disagree with
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: the messaging or whatever. But this has just been as
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: bad of a defense as any president has attempted. I mean,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: W is much better at defending Republican policies in 06
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: than Trump is now.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: I don't want to do the like.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Back in our day.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: But I was thinking, like, you know, 96, right, 30
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: years ago, Bill Clinton basically wins re-election because he gets
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: out there and just bombs out Bob Dole with ads
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: in swing states over the summer.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: Dude, it wasn't over the summer. They started those at noon.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Because it was the earliest ever at the time. It
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: was September of 95. God, those were the days. Oh,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: it was a big deal. Everybody's like, wow.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: He's on TV the year before.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Look, he went super early and they were all Dole
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Gingrich ads. They basically rolled the dice. And in fact,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: you talk to Dole people and they'll tell you that
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: in their focus groups, people assume Newt was his running mate.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: They had seen so many Dole and Gingrich because Gingrich
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: was so unpopular that literally there were some voters who
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: thought Gingrich and not Jack Kemp was Bob Dole's running
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: mate by the end. He started at 95%. Barack Obama
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: in his 2012 reelect basically went up in January of 2012.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: I was going to say they were up really early.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: The minute the Koch brothers went up, they went up.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: They went literally one for one. They sat on their
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: money and sat on their money and sat on their money,
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: and they unleashed it in this last month, six weeks.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: And it's not had the impact it could have had-
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: I totally agree.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: In July and August.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: It was just strategically poorly run.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Because that would have been a differentiating factor. And I
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: wonder why, and maybe we'll never know, is it- Look,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: we know Trump has said this. He thinks the money
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: is his. I was just going to say, he always
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: says the money in the super PAC, that's my money.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: So I think it's hard for him to part with it.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: So maybe it was just that process. But yeah, it is-
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: It is odd to me because they could have gotten
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: out and defined Tallarico. They tried a little bit, Paxton,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: but not really with TV money behind it. Right when
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Tallarico won the nomination, Paxton was like, he's a freak
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: and he's six genders and blah, blah. But it was
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: just like Paxton, who's not a great messenger. It was
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: not like a coordinated effort to define this guy outside
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: of the norm of Texas politics.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: And that would have gone a long way.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: It is.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: It's just so funny to me that Republicans aren't running
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: the ad that Josh Turek ran, okay? And I'm not saying,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: so Josh Turek went out of his way to say, hey, look,
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: this is where I stand on trans issues or Annie
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: Andrews and said, I don't support this. I don't support this.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: I don't support this. There hasn't been a Republican candidate
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: to basically push back at the narrative that's been hitting them. Instead,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: they just try to attack their opponent. They have not
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: accepted the premise of what the voters are talking about. Voters,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: if you're ignoring the issues that voters care the most about,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: they're going to punish you for this. And it feels
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: like the entire Republican apparatus has just decided where we're
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: going to try taxes, law and order and.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Trans issues.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: And I just think the trans issues, maybe I'm wrong.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: We'll find out. We'll see if it's law saliency.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: We'll see. I mean, that's the great thing about elections.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: We'll see.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: I agree. All right.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about Senate stuff.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: I actually did this before we came on. So, first
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: of all, CalSheet sponsors our podcast. Thank you to CalSheet.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: I went on their odds, and I'm going to pull
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: this up for you, Chuck. So, one thing I was
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: interested in is I wanted to see the odds on
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Senate races, and I basically ranked it. I got the
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: map pulled up here. I basically ranked it on the
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: most divided market to the least in the Senate. So, obviously,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: there are 35 Senate seats up. 11 of them are divided. 90%
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: or less in terms of probability. You know, most of
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: them are, you know, overwhelmingly favorite. I'm going to go
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: through this. Stop me when you find something interesting. This
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: is from most divided to least going up to 90%.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: After 90%, I was like, who cares?
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: All right. The most currently is Iowa, 59% Hinson, which
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: goes back to where we started and which, by the way,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: we have been talking about, both of us. We're wrong
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: a lot. People love to point out when we're wrong.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I understand. But when we are right, we need to
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: stand up for being– we need to stand up for– yeah, sure.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: When we're right, we need to stand up. We have
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: been talking about Iowa as the– pick your metaphor, linchpin, fulcrum,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. closest race, and we talked a little
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: bit about it, two good candidates, but you now have,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: so it's like 58, 59 Hinson, which is the only race,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: and we'll talk about Maine, but that's, I thought that
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: was interesting, that that looks, if we're judging the market
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: as an indicator of kind of closeness of either perception
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: or reality.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: That's it. It's the only one under 60, right, where
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: there's not a candidate.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: And Maine kicks around 60 It's 59, 60, but Maine
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: is second. And the only other one that's right in
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: that territory is Kansas, 61. I don't know if you
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: can see it on there, but 61, which.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: I guess I would not have grouped– if you said
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: to me, Chris, there's a week left in the election.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: What are the three most competitive Senate races? If you
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: said this to me a year ago, I would not
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: have probably ended up with Maine, Iowa, and Kansas. I
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: probably would have ended up with Maine because I wouldn't
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: have known what the political environment was like.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: But it's Susan Collins.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: But it is fascinating that at least traders think that
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: those are the three closest races right now.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: I think about 06 where we had a surprise. And
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: at the end, it was Tennessee. Montana, and Virginia. And
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: only one of them, those were probably the three closest,
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: and two of the three flipped. That's right, and Harold Ford.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: Was that Harold Ford? Yeah, that was Harold Ford. Harold Ford,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Bob Corker. So those were probably the three closest then. Well,
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think that tells you in a wave
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: year that you're looking at sort of two red states
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: and one blue state, and that in some ways makes sense. Look,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: I think the big, to me, the big surprise when
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: you look at it from that is Look, Texas, we
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: kind of anticipated because of the Paxton scenario and Cornyn
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: and Trump. And there was this, like, this could happen.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: I think the fact that the state that might be
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: put away in hindsight, which is just shocking, is the
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: two races in Ohio. I totally agree.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Which, by the way, the Ohio Senate race, the Ohio
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Senate race is more expensive than the Texas Senate race,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: at least as of right now. More money has been
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: spent on that race.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: No, it's it's a but it's a you know, part
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: of it is an embarrassment to Vance. And I wonder
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: if Democrats sweep Ohio. How much how much water does
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Vance's presidential campaign take on?
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: It's a good question. They will blame Ramaswamy entirely. They'll
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: throw Ramaswamy and Houston under the bus. Bad candidate in
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Houston and then Ramaswamy, not a great candidate, did a
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: very stupid thing. I disagree.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: I think Houston is a good candidate. Houston just was
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: running in the wrong race. You know, if Houston were
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: running for governor, he'd be winning.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: 100%.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: Which is what he wanted to do.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Which is what he always wanted.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: And because of this Basically, Elon Musk and Donald Trump
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: screwed up Ohio by– And Peter Thiel. Elon Musk decided
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: he hated Vivek. He hated Ramaswami. He said, please get
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: rid of him. And they wanted a soft landing. Ramaswami said,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: I want to– I'll run for– and Trump said, all right,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: I'll endorse you immediately like he did.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: With Donald in Florida.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: And it's– it never– this is one I want– I've
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: been a skeptic on this Ramaswamy campaign for a year.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: It just was like, really? Is he going to connect
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: with Ohio Republicans?
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: It's a hard fit. He's basically trying to remake himself
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: entirely from the 2024 campaign. It was a weird fit.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: Never quite worked.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: And even before the disgusting– decision he made by by.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: And by the way shout out to chuck todd for
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: taking a good strong stance against that that made me
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: happy not made me happy because i agree or disagree
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: but made me happy because some things we should be
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: okay to say this is just bad period full.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: Stop imagine we're trying to get people to speak out
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: when they're abused and What Ramaswami is telling people is
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: we will never let you get away from that. And
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: we will never believe you. And we will always make
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: sure this abuse haunts you. you for the rest of
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: your life. The message, this, if this is a tactic
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: that works, um, God help us. I'm sorry. And I'm
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: not a very religious person. I actually was somewhat heartened
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: by the response.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: I was heartened by the response in that I feel
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: like sometimes now we get to this thing where the only,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: there's no right and wrong. There's just, does it work
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: politically or does it not work politically? That's a dangerous
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: place to be. And I've been accused of saying like, well,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: if it's good political strategy, I get that.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: I think there's a line. And by the way, I'm,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm, you know, I'm dead inside.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: You know, it's all over for us. It's meeting like,
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: you know, I've, I've certainly plenty of ways that I
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: am like, I don't get moved emotionally.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: No, we are cynical and we are always looking like strategically.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Is that interesting?
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: But there, there has to be a line. And you're
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: just like, I'm just– the party that supposedly cared about
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Epstein did this.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: It's insane. I mean, it's insane.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: It's so gross. It's so– so you're right. I mean,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: if I'm Vance, if I'm– I throw– You throw them
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: under the bus.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: The question is, does it take the shine off for
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Vance and the only person that really matters? I mean,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean?
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: And that's the thing. Does Donald Trump blame Vance?
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: That's what I care about. That's the thing you don't know.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: More than like Ohio voters or whatever. But the point is,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: is that Ohio being– I don't want to say Ohio's
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: off the board because, man, he did win the state
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: by double digits. But the fact that it appears to
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: be off the board and both races are done.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: I think the governor's race is over. I guess I
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: wouldn't fall over dead if John Hughes did one, but
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I'd be surprised.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: Look, I was a bit of a skeptic of Sherrod
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: Brown running again because I thought, are people going to
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: think he's the incumbent? And is that a good thing
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: or a bad thing? You know, at this point, I
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: think now, no, I think the tide has probably turned
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: there in a pretty good direction for the Democrats. But
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: The fact that that's off the board, I mean, by
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: the way, did you see the weekend Senate leadership fund,
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: which is the Republican super PAC?
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: The spending?
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: And the fact that the three biggest states that they
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: were dumping money in are Kansas, South Carolina, and Mississippi. Now,
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: I actually think this is right. I think it's smart
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: because there's always a point in the cycle where you
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: stop worrying about this cycle and you start worrying about
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: the next cycle. Yeah. Build a firewall. You got to
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: contain the fire somewhere. If Democrats are at 52 Senate seats,
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: Republicans can win the Senate back in two years. If
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Democrats are at 54 Senate seats, Republicans can't win the Senate.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: That's it. And it's sort of like you have to say, OK,
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: these houses are going to burn no matter what.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: But we got to keep it from correct spreading. And
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: don't you know, don't let the damage that will be
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: done if you lose Mississippi or South Carolina long term
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: is just devastating.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: You know, Kansas is just. Look, this is a state
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: that I've been waiting for to pop, and we'll see
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: if this is definitely the year or not. But we've
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: been watching Kansas for a while, the Mississippi-South Carolina thing.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: And my guess is the triage is going to work
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: for what it's worth. I think it probably will.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Just one thing on South Carolina I thought was interesting.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: David Beasley and Jim Hodges did an ad for Annie Andrews.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: David Beasley, Republican governor. Jim Hodges, Democratic governor. Didn't Jim
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Hodges defeat David Beasley?
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Yes. Correct.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: 98, 98.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: 98, yeah. Yeah. I think Angie Andrews will lose, but
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: I thought that was interesting. I want to transition, and
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: this gets us there, Chuck, because I want to transition
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: to 2008.
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: Let's do it this way.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: Is there anything you've seen, and I want to talk
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: about the Washington, the New York Times rather did a poll,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: and I want to talk about that, but is there
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: anything that you've seen in this election that makes you
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: think that we might add a state to the or two,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: to the seven-ish swing states that we all, like, Georgia's
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be a swing state, Arizona's gonna be a swing state,
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: North Carolina's probably gonna be a swing state, Pennsylvania, Michigan,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Ohio is what made me think of it. If you
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: have a Democratic governor and a Democratic senator, is that
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: a state? Minnesota, in a less bad year for Republicans nationally,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Michelle Tafoya's, you know, I mean, Minnesota's been moving toward
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Republicans slowly but surely each. Is there anywhere where like,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: You know, because I mean, when we started in this business,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: if I was like, hey, Chuck, Georgia is a swing
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: state in 20 years, you'd be.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: Like, I guess I could see it. But like or
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: Arizona or you know what I mean? Here's what I
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: could tell you. Every time we elect a new president
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: and we're going to elect a new president in 20.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: That person usually has a slightly different coalition than anybody
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: has had in recent times.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: So, you know, a the new swing states were Colorado
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: and Virginia. And while people thought they could be, they
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: were sort of, well, they'll try them. And it turned out, oh,
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: this is real.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: It's, it's, you know, so you had to, in 2000,
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: it was Tennessee and Arkansas and they, and, and, and,
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: and West Virginia that the Trump folks said, you know what,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: we think we can, we can make some inroads in
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: these States. They threw in a California, they threw, you know,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: they threw a bunch of stuff at the wall.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: People forget this in 2000.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: And, hey, those sort of border states stock, right? Tennessee,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: West Virginia, Arkansas turned out to be, they really weren't
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: even swing states anymore. They were basically Bill Clinton states
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: that were just going to be lost to the next. So,
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: you know, here are my nominees. Yeah, that's what I'm
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: kind of interested in. So here are my nominees. I
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: think Texas, you would put up there as a, take
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: a look at it. Because it's such a, it's so
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: big electorally. And the trend line can, has, Look, the
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: fact of the matter is Democrats have been more competitive
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: every single cycle in Texas this century. It's creeped. It's
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: been a little bit here. It's like Georgia. A little bit,
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit, a little bit, a little bit, a
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: little bit, right? And obviously, if Hinojosa wins, then it's 100%
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: going to be targeted.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Not necessarily if just Tallarico wins and she doesn't. But
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: if you have both because here's what could happen. If
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Hinojosa wins, I had Reed Wilson, he's going to be
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: on my podcast later this week, our friend from Pluribus.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: And he said, you know, he goes, Democrats winning the
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Texas House is not out of the question. It's like,
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: it sits there. It's more competitive than people realize.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: Reed does a ton of stuff with state legislatures.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: He knows his stuff. And it's like, if Hinojosa wins,
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: it probably means she brings the one chamber with her,
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: not the Texas Senate. That's a little harder, but the
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: Texas House. So the point is, like Texas is slowly
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: moving in the direction of the center. Like it's becoming,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: it's reddish purple already. So I look, Texas is a nominee.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: I think you have to say Iowa is a nominee
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: because if democratic governor, I think having a democratic governor
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: and a huge difference, that's a big deal.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: I think you throw people, look, Obama won Iowa twice.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, like it's not that long ago that the
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: point is, is.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: That whoever the democratic nominee is, they'll, You look at Iowa,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: you look at Ohio, you look at Texas, and you'll
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: give it a shot. And I'll be curious.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: What about Kansas, Chuck? I don't know. I don't either.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: I'm not quite there on Kansas as a presidential state.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: But it is not Wyoming.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: I think people think Kansas is Wyoming or Arkansas or,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: you know, it's not.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: No, Kansas for me is Missouri of the first decade,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: meaning it's going to be, I think it's, I put
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Kansas in the category of Arizona 10 years ago, which is,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: it'll sit out there, it'll look competitive. It's probably a
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: couple of cycles away, but I'll put another one on
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the map because of how much time Democratic candidates are
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: going to spend in that state. I think you have
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: to put South Carolina on the map.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: By the way, if the state to the South Carolina
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: South is a swing state, and the state to South
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Carolina's north is a swing state, I wouldn't pretend that
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: South Carolina is not going to be impacted by that.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: So I've been waiting for South Carolina. And if, you know,
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: even a 51-49 victory by Darlene Graham, which is, by
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: the way, I think that's the most likely result. I
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: think she wins, but it's close. Yeah, I think that's right.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: Something we don't call until 1130 at night. I think
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: it's very close. I really do. And I think that
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: the amount of time so many Democrats are going to
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: do to organize the state.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: The Democratic Party in that state is going to have
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: a really good list of voters.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: Those are my red state nominees. Now, my blue state nominees,
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: I'm going to put. I think we're a cycle away
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: from seeing some until Trump is off the stage. Yeah,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: I think we're not there yet. Like if Trump if
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: Trump left office tomorrow, then I would say Colorado. I
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: would say Oregon and I would say Minnesota. Yeah, I
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: think the problem is, as long as Trump is president.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: No, those three are of the Republican Party doesn't sell
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: in those places. Yeah, but there is a Republican over
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: time that can. that Minnesota might be open to, that
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Oregon might be open to, that Colorado might be open to.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: Those would be the three blue states.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Do you ever buy New Jersey? And we talked about
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: it a little. I mean, he did much better. He
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: lost by eight, I think. Maybe that may just be
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: the kind of like Trump effect of New York media market.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: And it's hard.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: But I mean, Chris Christie was the governor of state.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: It's a certain kind of Republican. That isn't Trump. New
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Jersey is a suburban area. state, right?
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: And until Republicans can win the suburbs again, and honestly,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: they haven't won the suburbs, arguably. Bill Clinton took the
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: suburbs over in the 90s, and it really hasn't. They're swingy.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: The suburbs can be swingy.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: And I think Republicans can win in some suburban places,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: you know, but I mean, just look at suburban Kansas City. Yeah,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the problem.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: Sure is.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: David's is going to.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't you know, you're telling me that that
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: New Jersey is going to be in play for the
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: Republicans while we're talking about. Kansas being in play for
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: the Democrats, right?
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: It's very hard to imagine that now.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: I don't see it. Like I said, Oregon, big rural population.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: People aren't happy with Democratic governance.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: The eastern part of the state keeps trying to secede. Yeah.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Colorado's a libertarian state. It's culturally liberal, but there's an
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: allergy to taxes and stuff. And then Minnesota's another one
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: that feels, boy.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting. Amy's not blowing away her opponents.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: She is not. This is Amy Klobuchar, senator running for governor. Yep.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: And as we all know, there's always a scandal penalty
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: even when you win. And she's going to have probably
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: her worst performance as a statewide winner than she's ever had.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: I'm going to look what she got for Senate. For
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: the first time.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Don't you think she gets like 54 or something in
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: this governor's race?
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: I'm now less convinced she gets over 52.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Oh, interesting.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: That almost assuredly would be her worst statewide performance.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: That's what I mean. I don't think she ever– let
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: me look. But I think she didn't come anywhere close
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: to that.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: It would only be the Rod Graham's race would be
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: the only one that she did.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: She won 58 in 06.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: That's Rod Graham's.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: And then, oh, wow.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: And then did she face– 65.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah. 58 in 06, 65 in 12, 60 in 18,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: 56 in 24.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: So, I mean, the likelihood that she's under 53, I think,
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: is higher than if she is closer to that 56.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: And it's not– she hasn't done anything. It's just that
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: people don't like walls. People are mad about this scandal.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: It's a real scandal. It hurts Peggy Flanagan, too.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: I mean– It does. It does.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: If it wasn't for ICE killing two people, we'd.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Be in a different– It's hard to extrapolate out Minnesota
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: because of those two incidents. But I would tell people
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: if you go back and look like what state has
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: moved more Republican consistently, slowly but consistently, it's Minnesota.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: But like, you know, some of this will depend on
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: who the nominee is, because, again, I go back to,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: you know, George W. Bush uniquely was able to get Tennessee,
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Arkansas and West Virginia over quicker because he was born again.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: And he did connect in a way that Al Gore,
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: even though one was his home state, just didn't– he
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: was just not the same. The evangelical– like W was
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: sort of the Jimmy Carter on the Republican side with
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: the evangelical vote, meaning, no, he was able to speak
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: to evangelicals in a way. I remember– distinctly in the
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: first debate he participated in, George W.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Bush.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: He didn't participate in the first debates. He didn't have to.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: He was the front runner. But the first one, then
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: they asked this question, who's your, you know, the philosopher?
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: And he goes, Jesus Christ. And everybody was like, Snickers
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: and all this stuff. Oh, he picked, you know, that's
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: not a philosopher. It's not even a philosopher.
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: There was all this. Man, that ended the primary right there.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: You know, it didn't end it.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: But Super Tuesday goes through the South. It cemented them.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: And so- You know, you know, does Andy Beshear allow
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: an Indiana to come into play if he somehow was
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: the nominee? Right. You could see depending on who you have.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: It's a little nominee specific.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: It is a little bit. And then that can you know,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: that can that can sort of like Donald Trump had
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: a way of of of talking to the big to
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: the populist base. But, you know, Ted Cruz was never
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: going to carry Michigan or Ohio. Very hard.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Because Trump was the son of the Northeast. Right.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: So my favorite 26 candidate that I think is a
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: dark horse 28 candidate is not the guy in Georgia.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: It's the guy in Kansas. Hamilton. Interesting. I think Rob
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Sand probably doesn't turn it that quick, but Rob Sand
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: I think will be on a lot of VP lists
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: if he's the governor of Iowa.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: Rob Sand will take himself off of that list as
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: fast as possible. He is not going to. He is
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: going to serve his two terms.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: That's my guess.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: He is not going to touch this with a 10-foot pole.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: We don't need to spend a ton of time on this,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: but I did shout out to the New York Times
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: for doing some 2028 polling while 2026 is still going on.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Let me just pull up their chart, Chuck. I'll tell you,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: let's do Democrats first. Okay, I was struck by two
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: things here. This is the Democratic. Number one, Kamala Harris
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: is in first place with 12. These are related things.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: Number one, Kamala Harris is in first place with 12 percent.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Number two, basically 50 percent of the public doesn't of
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Democrats don't know who they want as their nominee. Tell
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: me if you're Kamala Harris, this has to give you pause, right?
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: I I think look.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: I think she's already decided she's not running, but why
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: announce it?
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: Like I just don't, I don't engage in this, not
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: in any sort of disrespect to the former vice president.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: She is not doing anything that indicates to me she
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: wants to run. She bought a $ 5 million house in Malibu.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: That's just, she's not. And I don't, and I don't
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: say this again. I think this is, I think she's
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: playing a longer game. And I think she is, I
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: think Democrats that are dismissive of her and trash her
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: are going to regret it and i wouldn't i'd be.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: So you don't think she's done but you think she
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: will not run in 28 correct yeah yeah she's not
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: old not certainly not by political standards.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: No and and you know look for all we know
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: by 2030 you know there'll be still calls for uh
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: her to run for governor in california.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Yep all right And that, but this, by the way,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: all this should reinforce to you is number one, these people,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: this is just name ID. This is, this basically says,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: this is not, I'm going to vote for Kamala Harris.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: This is, I recognize Kamala Harris's name or I recognize
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Kevin Newsom's name. And the reality is this is going
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: to be a very wide open race, right?
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: Like there's going to be a lot of people in it. Like,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: I would just say the fact that both Kelly and Ossoff,
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: are already already they have their picture yeah that that's
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: you know i i think look asaf was pretty declarative
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: and i think it would be damaging to him if he.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Flip-flopped on this i mean he literally said in the
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: debate i will not run yeah it was very definitive
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: it wasn't bill clinton-esque it was much more definitive and
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: and all that the um i i have.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: I'm very curious to see where the Democratic electorate is
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: going to be, right? But they are normally in open
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: seat races. They're looking for the most electable.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: They're looking.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: You've got to prove you can win. Not that you're
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: it's not a litmus test. You've got to prove that
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: you can win.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: I'm intrigued by this name who we've we've talked about
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: a lot. Three percent astronaut married to a woman who
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: was nearly killed by gun violence. You know, it's an
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: interesting look. I don't know if Mark Kelly has been
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: fully vetted. That is always the thing we hear. I'm
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: less concerned about the vetting. I'm actually less concerned about that.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: I think we live in it. I think we live
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: in the post-Trump days. Right. Right.
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: I think the bigger issue is is and it was
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: pointed out.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: He's boring.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: He's kind of boring without Gabby. When Gabby's with him,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: he lights up. And he's not the first astronaut that is,
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: you know, it's again, I go back to the fighter pilot.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: You got to be in a capsule, you're on your own,
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: you know, so there's a, it's almost, you know, unlike
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: even though the movie Top Gun and the right stuff
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: made it seem like these guys had huge personalities. You know,
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: test pilots, you know, they're risky. Yeah.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: But they didn't always necessarily have the. Well, we I
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: know we've mentioned this in another pod, but, you know,
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: what doomed John Glenn as a presidential candidate was he
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: was just not charismatic.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, he certainly had the resume. Dude, he lost,
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: you know, the first time he ran, he lost in
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: a prime.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: Right. I mean, it's just a bomb. Right. It matters.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: All right. Let me just go to the let me
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: go to the Republican race, which is all right. So
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: this is the Republican race. Less undecided with a very
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: clear two front runners, Vance and Rubio. Is anything interest
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: you there other than the fact that eight percent of
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Republicans said Donald Trump for an unconstitutional third term? I
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: wish they would have asked Junior. I wish they had
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: asked Jr. and not Trump. My guess would be about 8% too.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Like Trump Jr.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Is just a cipher for Trump. Yeah.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Does anything surprise you there, Chuck?
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: It was strange to me. I wonder if they– who
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: else did they– how did they– I can't remember. Did
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: they offer names or did they not offer names? I
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: don't know if they offered names or it was an open– Yeah.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: My guess with like this, another candidate, or don't know,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: it was open-ended. Like who would you– yeah, it is.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: Sorry. Open-ended responses. So all that means, folks, if you're not–
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: it just means they said, who would you vote for
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: on the Republican side for president? It's not– they prompt
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: you with four options, basically. So you're going to, in
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: all those situations, you're going to get other candidate and
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: don't know are going to be higher because people aren't
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: prompted with, it's like a multiple choice test. If I
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: have four options, I'm probably going to pick one of them.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: If I have to come up with the answer, I
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: might not.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: Because there might, of that list, I think only one
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: actually runs for president and that's Vance, right? You know, where,
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: and his chief opponents are going to be like Brian Kemp,
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz, You know, a couple
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: others that we're not thinking about.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: You don't think DeSantis runs, Chuck? I always defer to
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: you on Florida stuff.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: I think he wants to run.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I just, you know.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: Look, his approval ratings recovered a little bit in Florida.
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: It's interesting. The Florida can't. Byron Donalds has been running
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: an ad. quite a bit saying endorsed by Ron DeSantis.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: You know what he doesn't run ads? Endorsed by Donald Trump.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: DeSantis has a higher approval rating. And look, Donald's pointed
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: this out to me when I interviewed him. He said,
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: you know, we were talking at this point, I don't
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: think this, yes, it was off the record, but it
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: wasn't like, you know.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: He said- He wasn't like the nuclear codes are 1642.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm not, what I'm revealing isn't something that belongs
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: in off the record. He just said, have you noticed
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: the direction of the state questions versus direction of the country?
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: And his theory that what would insulate him, you know,
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: he was acknowledged the national environment was going to suck.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: He thought, look, look, the fact is that people may
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: not like DeSantis, but they think the state was in
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: the right.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: And, and so DeSantis governance is actually something that, um,
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: Republican-leaning independents and Republicans are okay with. So do I
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: think that Donald Trump, and there's a lot of people
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: in Trump's orbit that want DeSantis to to never succeed here.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: I do. And that's why I think he doesn't run.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, there is a personality. He needs a personality exchange.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, like if you tell me Ron DeSantis is
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: a totally different personality, I'll be, I'll be intrigued given
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: his record and his resume. The problem is I've kind
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: of seen that. I've kind of seen that story. I
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: think this year's DeSantis is Brian Kemp. And what we
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: don't know is, does he have the charisma to stand
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: on his own? And I don't know. Um, It's interesting
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: about Rubio because I keep hearing no too from people
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: who know.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: He's not active.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: He's ultimately not interested. He's interested in being president, not
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: this time around.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: Dude, he is a really smart political sort of– he's got–
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: 28 is– let Vance screw this up. You don't want
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: to be the guy after the guy. You want to
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: be the guy after the guy after the guy.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's so true.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Rubio knows this. I mean I just–
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: You know, here's a guy whose image in Florida is
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: as good as it's been in a while, at least
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: with Florida Republicans. He's got a safe haven to be in.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: He can– it's– And he's not– and again, he is
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: not old. He's not as young as Vance, but he's
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: in his 50s. He's the guy– right.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: He's my age.
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: He's a year older, I think. He's the guy that
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: in theory in 2032 can– can make the case he
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: can put Humpty Dumpty back together again, right? When the
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: party is splintered or whatever.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: Build the coalition back. Yes.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: And look, the scenario for Rubio is Democrats win 28,
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: people are unhappy, and he becomes the guy who can
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: sort of bridge the divide in the Republican Party, et cetera,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: et cetera. I mean, that's a scenario I could envision
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: that isn't a 1% scenario.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Absolutely not.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: Before we go to sports, I do.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: We teased it last week. We announced it to Monday.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: Chuck and I, along with Decision Desk HQ, are doing
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: a gigantic national live stream. We are doing it at
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: a bar in D.C. as well. So there's a live
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: event component to it. We are calling it all The Projection.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: And Chuck and I are in early stage planning of doing...
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: a daily political show streaming, which we're, like I said,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: in production, but come 2027.
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: In partnership with DDHQ, the decision desk HQ. Look, we're
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: going to be the official election night show for DDHQ results.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: You know, subscribers to DDHQ and us will be getting
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: it at the same time. We're not, you know, They
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: have certain media subscribers. Don't worry if you're listening. You're
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: not getting it. We didn't get a special deal. We're
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: not getting it before you, but we are the official
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: election night broadcast for Decision Desk HQ. And it's, as
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: we know, they're faster than AP. And it's going to
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: be a show to explain what the hell is happening.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: We are not here to showcase personalities or, hey, look
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: at the new set we've designed. We are dealing with
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: the results, the data, everything that comes with that with
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: incredibly experienced people that know how to do this.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: And we're going to have best-in-class reporters and analysts throughout
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: the night. And look, I actually– I'll take you behind
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: the curtain. I talked to a guy who's doing a
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: profile on Chuck. I talked to him on Friday, so
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: a couple days ago, and he said– You know, like,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: what do you kind of attribute, like, people liking this,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: you know, what Chuck and I do, people liking it?
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: And I said, you know, I think it's, I learned
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: a lesson from Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon, which is
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: that they were friends and shot the shit together long
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: before they were on TV.
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: And so much of why you watch them is because
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: they seem like they genuinely like each other. And I said,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: I think Chuck and I genuinely like each other. It's not. Yeah,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: sometimes it goes on and off. But I think that's
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: kind of the key to it is like people are like,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: you guys seem like you're friends.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: Like that's because we are friends.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Like it's like, you know, it's not. Yes, we've just
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: known each other. We both respect each other. We both
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: were kind of interested to see how the other person thinks.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: And that to me, we're going to try to.
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: Build off of that because I think, you know, it's
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: interesting about.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: What we do.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: What's funny is that I think it's Bill Simmons credits
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: Tony Coinheiser with telling him, don't, you know, put on
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: people you know.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Don't, you know.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Don't just put on randos.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: And then Bill Simmons gives that advice to others, right?
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: Like it's just, and it's true. I mean, you know,
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: my best podcast on my own when I have guests is,
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: or when you know besides you when it's like jmart
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: yeah people you're comfortable with people have you know known
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: forever even ian bremer our news for your uh broadcast
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: this week with ian bremer was one of my favorites
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: that i've done with him he's he is literally an
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: international political junkie and we did brazil and we did
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: israel and we did the united states and we did
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: you know but it was um It is true, and
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I think that that's what should, it will be a
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: comfortable broadcast. It'll be a comfortable broadcast.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: It's so simple, but like being authentic and not faking
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: it really does, like people get that. You know what
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I mean? Look, we're going 5 p.m. to 3 a.m.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Because we think if we haven't called the Senate by
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: 3 a.m., That means we're waiting on Alaska and waiting
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: on Alaska. We already know what kind of night it's been.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Ranked choice.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: And we know it's a big deal that the Republicans overperformed.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: That's right. And that's the that's a great way to
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: that's a great way to to explain our hours.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: If at 3 a.m. we haven't called the Senate.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: You can be pretty clear that the Republicans had a
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: better than expected night.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: And it will be just like all the primary nights
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: we did. It will be available on our YouTube channel, Substack,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: our X slash Twitter feeds. I mean, Decision Desk HQ.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: It'll be across basically everything. All right, let's do it, Chuck.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: Let's do a hard, quick five. All right, man. World Series...
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: I'm rooting because I like baseball. I'm kind of rooting
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: for a long series. I want a seven-game series. I'm
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: rooting for either team. But as we talk, it's Brewers 2-0. Sure.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: But literally, to give away the story here, we're taping
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: while they're playing.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. During in-game Monday night.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: And as of right now, in the middle of the fourth,
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: it's 2-0 Brewers.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: So are the Brewers just– better? I mean, both games
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: have been one run games, right? Three, two in the
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: first game, five, four in the second game. Brewers came
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: from behind in the second game. I look, I just
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: think the national league is better. And which meant, and
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: the Brewers have been, this has been right. They've been
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs four straight, five straight, six straight. I
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: don't know what it is. Right.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: Like, you know, and they've just come up short, come
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: up short, but you know, they have the deeper pitching staff.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: I think they have the better lineup, you know, They
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: both play very similarly. They can play small ball, but
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: the Brewers can– do have some guys that can hit.
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: There's basically Junior Caminero and everybody else on the raise.
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: But you've got Churrio and.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: You've got Terang. And Yelich. And you've got Yelich still.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: And never mind all– and then you have Contreras who's
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: been just doing well as well. So this just feels like–
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: it just feels like the Brewers' time.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: It just feels like– and I say this and of course–
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: the Rays will... The Rays come back and win 4-2.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: This is one of those, you know, if the Brewers
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: win tonight, it's a sweep. If the Rays win tonight,
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: it goes 7, right? Like, it feels like that's the situation. Yeah,
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: if it goes 3-0, it's going to be hard. I'm just, again...
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: How about this? By the way, we're taping, you know,
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: you're hearing this the day after the Sports Equinox. Sports Equinox.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Right. Very rare. All four major sports.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: The NFL, the NBA, the NHL, and... And I believe
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: the WNBA, right? Game 5.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: Now, So the WNBA has got game five against game
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: three of the World Series against Monday Night Football, not
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: just any Monday Night Football, Dallas, even though Dallas is
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: no good.
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: It still rates. It still rates. I mean, boy, the WNBA.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: Just wait another day. What are you doing? Just do
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: it on Tuesday. You know, Monday Night Football is known.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: You know when Monday Night Football is on?
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: Monday.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: I know this in April. When is Monday Night Football
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: going to be on in the fall? Monday. Like, what
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: are you doing?
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: It's like when people say, how many house seats are up?
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: I always say all of them. Now, I'll say this.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: I love my YouTube TV.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: And tonight, or I'm on Monday night, you know, about
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: the best four screen you could get You get Monday
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: Night Football, Game 3 of the World Series, Game 5,
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: and then pick your favorite NBA team.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: Wizards. Wizards Hornets. You want to see some Wizards Hornets. Okay,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: last thing, and this doesn't have to be long, but
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: I was thinking of this this weekend.
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: Does the fact that you, the you, have two outstanding
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: players make it less likely that either of them win
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: the Heisman?
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: By that, I'm talking about Malachi Toney, the wide receiver,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: and Darian Mensah, the quarterback. So... Miami had this happen
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: to them a couple of times.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: I want to say in the 2001 year where they had,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: I think two guys got to, got to New York,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: but neither.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: Oh, interesting.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: Both Dorsey and McGahee. I think that's that happened. Now
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: I'll give you another example. Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: were both invited to New York and Reggie Bush won. Yes.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Look, I, I mean, Malachi Tony has to be invited
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: to New York. I just don't see how you, Jeremiah
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: Smith and Malachi Tony have to be there. And then
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: the two other spots I could debate.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: There's, look, we're going to find, I don't know how good,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: I think Darian Ments is a great, a really good quarterback.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: We won't know how good he is when he doesn't
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: have Tony anymore.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: It's like Julian San. I mean, Smith is so good.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: Tony and Smith, I mean, look, Tony was magical. I was, look,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: I was the guy listening to the game on my
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: phone while watching callous. My son was so off at me.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: He did not. He was so mad. You know, Miami was,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: went up by like 30 at one point.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Like 54 to 12 or something.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: I'm like, no, I'm, I'm, I'm, you know, I got
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: to hear every, every play. Um, SMU won big too.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: Good.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: It's powered by a good second half. Um, they didn't
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: play so well in the first half, but terrific in
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: the second half. And, um, tony made some plays that
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: were just and and the thing is every everybody on
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: the field knows where the ball's going a hundred like
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: you know it's it's funny it's like i got you
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: know two when when miami and florida state game you
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: know i kept saying just give it to you know
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: i said i got an idea how about how about
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: give the ball to number one right and and so
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: i my daughter heard me say it so many times
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: she was texting me because she was at the miami
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: game and She was texting while we were at the
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: SMU game and she goes, yeah, dad, your idea of
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: just give the ball to number one seems to work
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: pretty well.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: They heard you. They heard you. But I don't.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: Think it's a close call. I think Darian Ments is terrific.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: He may be the number one pick in the draft
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: when he comes out.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: There's only one.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: But you think Malachi Toney.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: Malachi Toney is a lot. Because when he's not in,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: Miami's offense sputters. So I think.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: It's just an interesting like I'm just it seems to
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: me it's obvious the two of those. Interestingly enough, two
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: wide receivers are, I think, sure things. Usually it's like
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: three quarterbacks and a running back or something.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: By the way, they're they're one, two in the odds.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: I think I saw a Cal sheet there.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: One.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was trying to think because two receivers.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: Arch, I think, started the season probably as the favorite,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: but he's not going to win. I mean, he has
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: not performed.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: Oh, and CJ Carr was pretty high up there, too,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: because the Notre Dame quarterback is always sort of put
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: on there. So it's very interesting. If Tony has a
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: two-touchdown game and Miami beats Notre Dame, it's probably Tony's
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: Heisman to lose. Especially given that they're number one.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: They'd have to lose a couple times in a row,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: but even then they'd probably make the playoff.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Well, no, I was thinking the other way of sort
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: of So, look, I think Tony's last chance to make
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: an impression on Heisman voters is in two weeks is
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: in the game. Yeah, for sure. But there you know,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: you will have Ohio State, Michigan. You will have Auburn, Alabama.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to think, you know, could who else could
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: could Alabama?
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, Alabama or Stockton at Georgia, Alabama quarterback, maybe.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: But he's a sophomore and they have two losses. Now,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: if C.J.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: Carr has the game of his life against Miami and
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: Notre Dame wins, then I think you see it. you
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: might see something, you might see a car pop up. So,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: but Tony feels like if he can have, if he has,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: if he is the decisive factor in, in Miami beach,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: Notre Dame and Tony's the decisive factor.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: If he has seven catches for 150 yards in a touchdown,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: Smith's problem, Jeremiah Smith's problem is he's got to have
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: a backup quarterback for the rest of the season. That's right.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: Yep. And, and if, if that just, If his numbers
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: start to go down a little bit, it's not as
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: this happens, then that's the opening for Tony. But, you know,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: Tony's still only a true sophomore.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: That is crazy. Who's the last hurricane to win the Heisman?
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Gino Toretta. Gino Toretta.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: Oh. We have two.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: Gino Toretta.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: In– no, 90– Oh, gosh.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: So he was– oh, my gosh. That long ago. And
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: then Testaverde, right? And Vinny before that.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: No, the last time we had a guy– no. Well,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: Cam Ward was invited to New York. He was third
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: or fourth when Travis Hunter won it. And then I–
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: and I think both Dorsey and McGahee got invited from–
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: in 01. I think that's right.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: It's interesting. Okay. Or in 02. So Chuck and I, uh,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: we've got one more super Tuesday, which will be on
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: the big day.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: We got to figure that out. That's going to be
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: a weird show. We're going, we're going to figure something out.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: We're going to have to do some planning on that
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: one that night. So a week from Tuesday, November 3rd,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Chuck and I, uh, Jeffrey Skelly of decision desk HQ,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Grace Panetta of the 19th and a slew of great guests.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: We will be live in DC, uh, and then, uh,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: at a bar there, we will also be online streaming
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: in the way that we do. We are psyched in
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: much more to come from Chuck and I, uh, Chuck,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: anything else? Uh, the Chuck Todd cast always got to
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: check it out. Uh, dynastic, um, uh, Chuck's growing podcast empire.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: I'm really, no, I'm, I'm, I really love the news
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: fair interview this week. You're on news fair. I'm on
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: news fair. We did look, I, we don't promote, We
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: promote all of our stuff and we're doing- We try, but- Right, right.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: New Sphere, high-end journalism. Yes, it's behind a paywall, but
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: it's worthy. And I will just tell you, I did
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: a live event on New Sphere- Yeah, I saw that
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: you did that.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: And we were showcasing our New Sphere contributors around the world.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: It's crazy. We had somebody in the Amazon, okay, who-
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: who was prescient about the Lula upset said, you know,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: we're up here and we were asking about the Brazilian
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: election and people are petrified of what's going to happen
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: to the Amazon, that there was more organizing going on
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: there than they had seen in a long time. And,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: you know, in hindsight, it turns out, Newsphere, if you've
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: been reading Newsphere, you saw something was happening in Brazil
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: that was different. Ditto in Israel. We had somebody on
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: the ground there. And look, that's– you want to talk about–
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: It's happening today.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: It is as we're speaking now.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: But, I mean, we had somebody on the ground in
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine, somebody on the ground in the Amazon,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: somebody on the ground in– northern israel that's amazing it
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: was and we went live everywhere that's very cool i
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: know that it's everybody can go live everywhere but.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: Well the reach when everyone else is pulling back Especially, look,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: if you care about international affairs and how it mixes
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: with domestic politics, there's no better subscription to have than NewsSphere. Yeah,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: shout out. NewsSphere, N-O-O-Sphere. It's an app. You can download it.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: You can download it for free. You can look around
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: on it for free. It is a subscription service, but
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: it's well worth, I think, an investment.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Look, if you used to pay money for the International
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: Herald Tribune, if you used to pay money for Foreign
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Affairs or whatever- And you're like, I miss it.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: If you miss the New.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: York Times and the Washington Post having robust international coverage,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: this is where you find it.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: Totally. It's right here at Newsphere. Shout out.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: Chuck and I will be on. You will not have
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: to suffer from a lack of Chuck and I over
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: the next 10 days or so.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: So stay tuned.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: Like, subscribe, comment. Go to the Chuck Todd cast. Do
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: the same if you are. You probably already are, but
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: if you're not, do it.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: Go to So What. Go to So What.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: Go to Beyond the Pod with Chuck Todd. Look, we
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: always talk about this. The way that people in our world,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: in our independent world, is you have a lot of
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: different fishing rods in the water. So we've got a
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: lot of, we got writing, we've got talking, we got podcasts,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: we got video, we got live streams. We got, you know,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: we got a lot of stuff going on. So I mean,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: if you like us, consume us. Look, we appreciate it.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: And the other thing I've learned is, There are some
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: people that only see me in one place.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Some people and vice with you.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: Of course.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: It's fantastic.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: You know, there's nothing like, hey, I just saw your
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: thing on TikTok.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: I was like, well, how about that? I didn't know.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Hey, all right.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: Things are happening.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: Wow. OK.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: And then that's the point.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: We're in a lot of different places. Check us out.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: And the other thing is.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: Our job is to get to you.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: Your job is not, you know, we will find you.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: One week out.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: Chuck and I will be back. Thank you, my friend.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: See you, buddy.