Latest / Balance of Power / Trump Hits Campaign Trail in Nebraska, Plans Tax-Exempt Diesel Relief

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Trump Hits Campaign Trail in Nebraska, Plans Tax-Exempt Diesel Relief · Balance of Power

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts.
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Speaker 3: News.
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Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
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Speaker 5: In the state of Nebraska, right now, diesel on average
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Speaker 5: is just shy of the six-handle.
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Speaker 6: $ 5. 99.
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Speaker 5: 83 for diesel and $ 4. 21 for a regular gallon of
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Speaker 5: unleaded gas. And this is, of course, what President Trump
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Speaker 5: is trying to address as the White House, according to
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Speaker 5: Bloomberg's reporting, is preparing. to announce moves that target red-dyed
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Speaker 5: diesel in particular, making tax-exempt more fuel to go in
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Speaker 5: vehicles on the road, things like pickup trucks and semi-trucks
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Speaker 5: that move goods throughout the country, not just putting it
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Speaker 5: into the tractors and such things that help power the
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Speaker 5: agricultural sector already, Joe.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. The president on Truth Social as well.
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Speaker 7: Taking aim at Ukraine and at blue states, as Kayleigh
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Speaker 7: mentioned earlier, what's driving up gasoline, he writes, is no
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Speaker 7: longer the Strait of Hormuz. Because record numbers of barrels
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Speaker 7: are coming out now on an almost daily basis. But
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Speaker 7: the word refineries, where rushes are being blown up by
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Speaker 7: Ukraine and where ours are being closed up in blue
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Speaker 7: states like California by the Democrats, he says, as Kayleigh mentions,
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Speaker 7: this will likely be the focus of the president's remarks,
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Speaker 7: at least some of them, when he gets to Nebraska
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Speaker 7: a bit later on today, the issue of affordability. And,
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Speaker 7: of course, he'll be in an agricultural state where this
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Speaker 7: is something important. that is, of course, top of mind.
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Speaker 7: Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall joins us ahead of our
1:42
Speaker 7: conversation with Mick Mulvaney with more on this.
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Speaker 1: She's live on the North Lawn of the White House.
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Speaker 7: Tyler, is this something the president will do or is
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Speaker 7: now doing when it comes to red-dyed diesel?
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Speaker 8: Well, Joe, our.
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Speaker 9: Understanding is he hasn't taken the firm action quite yet,
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Speaker 9: but it does seem likely, according to our reporting, that
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Speaker 9: he is going to move forward with this idea that
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Speaker 9: he will limit the restrictions related to red dye diesel.
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Speaker 9: This doesn't increase the actual supply of diesel, but it would,
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Speaker 9: in theory, increase. the consumers that are able to access
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Speaker 9: this tax-exempt diesel. It does mark the latest push by
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Speaker 9: this White House to try to curb costs as Republicans
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Speaker 9: continue to face the political headwind that voters are upset
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Speaker 9: about higher costs of living, and that is punctuated. by
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Speaker 9: these higher fuel costs. As Kayleigh already mentioned, diesel today,
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Speaker 9: national average for a gallon, $ 6. 32, while below the mid-September high,
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Speaker 9: we are still much, much higher than those pre-war levels.
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Speaker 9: Red dye diesel, as you guys outlined, in and of
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Speaker 9: itself is an interesting concept, right? It actually has that
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Speaker 9: dye in it that allows inspectors to go into fuel
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Speaker 9: tanks and check if the dye comes up. That would
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Speaker 9: then allow them in their tax exemption status to figure
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Speaker 9: out who is or is not complying with the law.
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Speaker 9: And if you don't, it actually carries some pretty hefty fines.
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Speaker 9: So there is a potential impact here. But we'll have
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Speaker 9: to see how quickly this could be implemented and how
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Speaker 9: far it would be implemented, because we know there is
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Speaker 9: a very tight timeline between now and Election Day for
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Speaker 9: consumers to really feel any impact when it comes to
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Speaker 9: to lowering fuel costs. And to your point, Joe and Kayleigh,
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Speaker 9: President Trump today in Nebraska, where of course we know
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Speaker 9: that red and rural states are feeling these higher diesel
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Speaker 9: prices particularly hard.
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Speaker 5: Well, and so on that trip to Nebraska, frankly, all
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Speaker 5: of the travel we've seen the president do over the
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Speaker 5: last several days, Tyler, and with the travel that is
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Speaker 5: yet to come as he promises to sweep across the
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Speaker 5: country in this final stretch ahead of the midterms, are
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Speaker 5: any of these areas other than Ohio on Saturday places
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Speaker 5: where President Trump's presence is going to make a difference?
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Speaker 5: Does Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, the incumbent there, need Trump
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Speaker 5: on the stage? Is he polling closely to his Democratic opponent?
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Speaker 9: It is closer than expected, Kayleigh, in Nebraska, but part
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Speaker 9: of that is due to the White House's own policies
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Speaker 9: when it comes to President Trump defending his action of
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Speaker 9: allowing foreign beef imports into the U.S. and another bid
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Speaker 9: by this White House to cut down on talks that
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Speaker 9: has made farmers and ranchers in Nebraska. pretty upset by
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Speaker 9: that policy. So it will be interesting to see how
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Speaker 9: President Trump sort of threads the needle on this one
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Speaker 9: as he tries to push that he's trying to lower costs. President,
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Speaker 9: as you mentioned, Ohio, we are expecting to go to
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Speaker 9: some other battleground states, including Michigan as well. But a
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Speaker 9: lot of these are red states where we are seeing
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Speaker 9: more time, money, and energy being poured into them. Also,
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Speaker 9: Kansas is, of course, on our radar. Interesting to see
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Speaker 9: that Vice President J.D. Vance had headed there in and
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Speaker 9: of itself, that a Democrat hasn't won a Senate seat
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Speaker 9: in Kansas since 1932. But, Kayleigh, as you all know,
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Speaker 9: this doesn't mean Democrats aren't facing their own headwinds when
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Speaker 9: it comes to some intraparty fighting around messaging, but also
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Speaker 9: the fact that The GOP has a massive fundraising advantage
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Speaker 9: at this point, and it looks like they're using it,
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Speaker 9: though they're using it in some of these stronghold states
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Speaker 9: that we weren't really expecting them to.
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Speaker 5: Yep, the Senate Leadership Fund throwing $ 14 million into the
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Speaker 5: Kansas Senate race is not something we necessarily were expecting.
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Speaker 5: Tyler Kendall live on the North Lawn of the White
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Speaker 5: House today. Thank you so much. And as we consider
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Speaker 5: the president's travels, the spending of money in some of
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Speaker 5: these red states and overall the picture for Republicans 29
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Speaker 5: days out from the midterms, we turn now to Mick Mulvaney,
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Speaker 5: of course, a former congressman from South Carolina, one of
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Speaker 5: the co-founders of the House Freedom Caucus, also former acting
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Speaker 5: White House chief of staff. in the first Trump administration.
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Speaker 5: He's back with us now on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Mick,
5:43
Speaker 5: it's always good to have you on Balance of Power.
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Speaker 5: As we consider the president's trip to Nebraska today and
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Speaker 5: his overall travel plan, as we've seen it thus far,
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Speaker 5: is he going to the right places?
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Speaker 6: Why go to red states?
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Speaker 10: Well, I assume they're going there because they think that's
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Speaker 10: where his time is best spent. Keep in mind, the
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Speaker 10: president's most valuable asset is his time. So if you
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Speaker 10: want to know what any president's priorities are, look at
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Speaker 10: how he spends his time. And You have to assume
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Speaker 10: that they've seen data that says that he's needed in Nebraska.
6:15
Speaker 10: Republicans in the White House has put out several statements
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Speaker 10: over the course of the past several days that says
6:19
Speaker 10: they don't believe the polls. But look, the polls are
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Speaker 10: the only data we've got. And the data is apparently
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Speaker 10: driving Trump to Nebraska. Would you rather see him as
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Speaker 10: a Republican spending time in Ohio and Michigan and other
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Speaker 10: swing states? Yes, we would. We'd love to see him,
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Speaker 10: I guess, in Minnesota because there's a chance for Republicans there.
6:37
Speaker 10: But every... 10 minutes you spend in Nebraska and Kansas
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Speaker 10: are 10 minutes you can't spend in those swing states.
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Speaker 10: But this is not done by accident, Kayleigh, as you
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Speaker 10: probably anticipated. They've got data that says there's an issue
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Speaker 10: there that they think Trump can help solve.
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Speaker 7: I'm curious your thoughts, Mick. It's good to see you.
6:54
Speaker 7: Your backdrop's much more fun than mine. I'm curious your
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Speaker 7: thoughts specifically on North Carolina as just kind of a
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Speaker 7: poster child for what's happening here, moving money from North
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Speaker 7: Carolina to Kansas. You know that state well, which is
7:08
Speaker 7: why I bring it up. And I'm just curious your thoughts.
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Speaker 7: Was Michael Watley, if he loses, as appears to be
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Speaker 7: the track that's been set here, was he the wrong candidate?
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Speaker 1: Or would any Republican.
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Speaker 7: in this case against Roy Cooper, would have struggled in
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Speaker 7: the face of high gas prices and concerns about affordability?
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Speaker 10: Yeah, no, I don't think this is a circumstance of
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Speaker 10: having a bad candidate. Bad candidates lose. They just do.
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Speaker 10: Ken Paxton is proving in Texas that, you know, they
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Speaker 10: bring challenges.
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Speaker 1: Mike Watley's not a bad candidate.
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Speaker 10: Keep in mind, he's a Republican National Committee chairman, was
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Speaker 10: the former state chairman in the state of North Carolina.
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Speaker 10: And yes, there's headwinds that are far beyond his control.
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Speaker 10: There is a subtext here, Joe, that I don't know
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Speaker 10: is getting out. Look, I know what the top line
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Speaker 10: narrative is that a couple of PACs, including, I think, SLF,
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Speaker 10: Senate leadership, have pulled money out of North Carolina to spend, say,
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Speaker 10: in Kansas.
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Speaker 1: And that never is a good look. But Whatley put out.
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Speaker 10: A statement that I thought was interesting, which is essentially
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Speaker 10: he said he had enough money There is an aspect
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Speaker 10: to that that you don't need all the money in
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Speaker 10: the world to run a campaign. You don't even need
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Speaker 10: more than your competitor. You just need enough to do
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Speaker 10: the job. And anybody watching who lives in or near
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Speaker 10: a North Carolina media market has known there's been plenty
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Speaker 10: of ads on TV for both candidates over the course
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Speaker 10: of the last several weeks. So, look, it's not a
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Speaker 10: good look. I know that the polls say that Michael
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Speaker 10: is down, and I get that. But if Whatley comes
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Speaker 10: out and says he's got enough money, Yeah, I guess
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Speaker 10: the argument is, what else is he going to say?
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Speaker 10: There's a lot of a lot of red flags in
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Speaker 10: the North Carolina race, but maybe it's not all bad news.
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Speaker 5: Well, if he has enough money, do you think Ken
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Speaker 5: Paxton has enough money? If I interpreted the beginning of
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Speaker 5: your answer there correctly, Mick, you don't think he's a
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Speaker 5: great candidate. And there's literally hundreds of millions of dollars
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Speaker 5: being spent on that race.
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Speaker 6: Is it enough?
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Speaker 10: Yeah, I think Paxton is a different story entirely. Paxton,
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Speaker 10: we all knew as Republicans he was the weakest candidate
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Speaker 10: to take into this general election, that everything had to
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Speaker 10: go right for the Democrats in order to have a
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Speaker 10: snowball's chance of winning this race. We'd have to have
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Speaker 10: a bad candidate. There'd have to be bad economic news.
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Speaker 10: There'd have to be an overseas war. All of those
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Speaker 10: things are happening right now. I still think, look, the
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Speaker 10: race is going to be extraordinarily close. Texas is still Texas.
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Speaker 10: It's still a Republican stronghold. And at the end of
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Speaker 10: the day, you have to think that Republicans are not
9:26
Speaker 10: going to switch over to vote for a Democrat. The
9:29
Speaker 10: question is, are they going to show up to vote
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Speaker 10: at all? And I'm sure there's a bunch of Republicans
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Speaker 10: out there saying they're not going to vote for Paxton,
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Speaker 10: who they will. But that doesn't answer your question, which is, is.
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Speaker 1: There enough money?
9:40
Speaker 10: There's probably not enough money to fix Ken Paxton. So
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Speaker 10: the real money is probably being spent in Texas to
9:44
Speaker 10: make Telerico look as bad as they possibly can. in
9:47
Speaker 10: order to depress his turnout. But look, there's no arguing.
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Speaker 10: Six months ago, did we think we'd be spending hundreds
9:54
Speaker 10: of million dollars defending Texas? The answer is no. And
9:57
Speaker 10: that is hundreds of millions that Republicans have not had
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Speaker 10: to spend in other races.
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Speaker 7: Well, very honest analysis today from Mick Mulvaney. I mean,
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Speaker 7: I can't imagine what the president thinks. Well, 100 percent.
10:10
Speaker 7: Thank God he's back. I can't imagine what the president thinks.
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Speaker 7: And you know him pretty well, Mick Mulvaney, when he
10:16
Speaker 7: sees the comments that are rolling out lately from Ken Paxton.
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Speaker 1: Last week, it was the RNC did damage.
10:22
Speaker 7: Today, it's in the playbook, these audio recordings of his
10:27
Speaker 7: meeting at a lobbyist lunch here in Washington. I don't
10:30
Speaker 7: have the ability to change anything, so I have to
10:33
Speaker 7: live with whatever I get. Suggesting that Washington is running
10:38
Speaker 7: things here. He says, when it comes down to your messaging,
10:42
Speaker 7: Washington is in charge of the campaign and what he says.
10:47
Speaker 7: Is that just the way it goes when Trump picks
10:49
Speaker 7: a candidate?
10:51
Speaker 9: Look.
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Speaker 1: Texas is unique.
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Speaker 10: Generally speaking, as Republican candidates in these really tough states,
10:58
Speaker 10: if they win, they're going to win because of Donald Trump. Now,
11:00
Speaker 10: there's exceptions in Maine and New Hampshire, some unusual places
11:03
Speaker 10: that are sort of different than the rest of the country.
11:06
Speaker 10: But generally speaking, if they win, they win because of
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Speaker 10: Trump going out and saying, pretend I'm on the ballot.
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Speaker 10: If those Republican voters show up, Republicans are going to
11:13
Speaker 10: do well. By the same token, if they lose, they're
11:15
Speaker 10: going to lose because of Trump, because Trump motivated the
11:17
Speaker 10: Democrat base more than the Republican base. Texas is different.
11:21
Speaker 10: If Paxton wins, it will be because of Trump. He's
11:24
Speaker 10: the only person right now that can save Ken Paxton.
11:26
Speaker 10: If Paxton loses, it's probably because of Ken Paxton. That
11:29
Speaker 10: is unique on the map right now. Look, Paxton was
11:34
Speaker 10: a flawed candidate. We knew that from the beginning. Certainly
11:37
Speaker 10: John Cornyn knew it and tried to make the case
11:38
Speaker 10: to the president. The president decided to go a different way.
11:40
Speaker 10: We all get that. But I'm sure a lot of
11:43
Speaker 10: people now are wondering what this race would have been
11:45
Speaker 10: like if John Cornyn was on the ballot.
11:48
Speaker 2: Well.
11:49
Speaker 5: As we wonder about different scenarios, Mick, if you were
11:52
Speaker 5: still inside the White House advising President Trump, how would
11:57
Speaker 5: you be talking about the different potential scenarios that could
12:00
Speaker 5: be facing.
12:00
Speaker 6: Him depending on the outcome of this midterms?
12:03
Speaker 5: What is the difference to President Trump if it's simply
12:05
Speaker 5: a Democratic House versus a Democratic House and Senate?
12:11
Speaker 10: Not much. Most of the policies are going to stay
12:14
Speaker 10: the same. Folks ask me all the time, will Trump
12:16
Speaker 10: change his approach to immigration or law enforcement crime based
12:22
Speaker 10: on the outcome of the midterms?
12:23
Speaker 11: No.
12:24
Speaker 10: Is he going to change his course of action in
12:25
Speaker 10: Iran because of the midterms?
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Speaker 2: No.
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Speaker 10: Most of what he's been doing, 90% of what he's
12:29
Speaker 10: done in the first two years of this second term,
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Speaker 10: he's done without Congress anyway, legally through executive authority. And
12:35
Speaker 10: that will continue. They haven't used legislation up to now.
12:38
Speaker 10: They're not going to use legislation going forward. What's going
12:40
Speaker 10: to change? Well, there's gonna be a lot more investigations
12:43
Speaker 10: if the Democrats take either chamber. There'll probably be an impeachment.
12:46
Speaker 10: They'll never kick him out of office, but there'll be
12:48
Speaker 10: a bunch of distractions. I can't tell you, Kylie, how
12:51
Speaker 10: many times in the first term I walked into the
12:53
Speaker 10: White House Counsel's office to talk about something on a
12:55
Speaker 10: policy matter, and the White House Counsel would look at
12:57
Speaker 10: me and say, look, I'm up to my ears in impeachment.
12:59
Speaker 10: I don't have time for policy right now. So that
13:02
Speaker 10: will be different. Things will be slower, but there's not
13:04
Speaker 10: a dramatic change to Trump. The biggest change is probably
13:07
Speaker 10: getting his cabinet secretaries appointed, if there's any vacancies there,
13:12
Speaker 10: getting any new judges appointed to the Supreme Court. That
13:14
Speaker 10: would be a big deal if the Democrats, for example,
13:17
Speaker 10: were to take the Senate. So there are changes around
13:19
Speaker 10: the margins. But at the end of the day, and
13:22
Speaker 10: I'll close with this, when Trump said he didn't care
13:24
Speaker 10: that much about the midterms, I think that's right. By
13:26
Speaker 10: the way, I think it's the right attitude for a
13:28
Speaker 10: president to have when you're dealing with a war overseas.
13:30
Speaker 10: You shouldn't change your policies on an ongoing war in
13:34
Speaker 10: order to get a particular political outcome. But I think
13:37
Speaker 10: he was speaking honestly when he said he really didn't
13:39
Speaker 10: care that much about the midterms.
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Speaker 1: I think that's accurate.
13:44
Speaker 7: We've got about a minute here, Mick, and we've got
13:46
Speaker 7: a breaker from CNN. Apparently the White House is not
13:49
Speaker 7: allowing Politico on Air Force One today, knowing that Politico
13:53
Speaker 7: was one of the three, CNN and MSNOW, the other
13:55
Speaker 7: two news organizations that were kicked out. Their credentials were
13:59
Speaker 7: removed for a while, but they were brought back after
14:01
Speaker 7: a court ruling yesterday. The final ruling has not been made,
14:04
Speaker 7: so maybe we keep seeing this kind of stuff from
14:07
Speaker 7: time to time over the next few days, Mick. I'm
14:10
Speaker 7: not asking you what is right or about the First Amendment.
14:13
Speaker 7: Politically speaking, does it hurt the president to not be
14:16
Speaker 7: on TV? Because that's what this leads to.
14:19
Speaker 1: No, not really.
14:20
Speaker 10: I mean, the president has always figured out a way
14:22
Speaker 10: to speak to his people directly. It's one of his
14:24
Speaker 10: true geniuses. He's used social media to get to folks
14:28
Speaker 10: he uses other outlets. I'm with the White House on this.
14:31
Speaker 10: I fought with the White House Correspondents Association on things
14:34
Speaker 10: like access when I was chief of staff. I've never
14:36
Speaker 10: understood why they think there's a right to be in
14:39
Speaker 10: the White House or a right to be on Air
14:41
Speaker 10: Force One. But no, politically, I don't think it helps.
14:45
Speaker 10: I don't think anybody wakes up and says, well, I
14:46
Speaker 10: don't know how I'm going to vote for President Trump.
14:48
Speaker 10: How's he treating Politico? Every minute he's not talking about
14:52
Speaker 10: the economy is a minute he's lost.
14:55
Speaker 7: Well, and TV helps you get into people's living rooms,
14:57
Speaker 7: which is why I ask. It's great to see you,
14:59
Speaker 7: Mick Mulvaney, as always, live on Balance of Power. Alongside
15:03
Speaker 7: Kaylee Lyons, I'm Joe Matthew. Thanks for joining us here
15:05
Speaker 7: on the Monday edition. We've got much more ahead with
15:08
Speaker 7: our political panel. Jeannie Shanzano and Rick Davis on the
15:10
Speaker 7: way with 29 days to go until the midterms.
15:13
Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
15:15
Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
15:20
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15:39
Speaker 5: We're tracking the latest moves that we expect the White
15:41
Speaker 5: House will make when it comes to diesel and trying
15:44
Speaker 5: to find ways to relieve high diesel costs for the
15:47
Speaker 5: American electorate with 29 days to go until the midterms.
15:50
Speaker 5: Red dye diesel apparently is what he's going to target
15:53
Speaker 5: with a tax exemption of the federal excise tax of
15:55
Speaker 5: 24 cents. That'll help take off some of the sticker
15:59
Speaker 5: price at retail gasoline stations, though it might do little.
16:02
Speaker 5: to address the structural challenges that have led to elevated
16:05
Speaker 5: diesel costs. And Joe, it is worth pointing out that
16:08
Speaker 5: it's simply a tax exemption for on-road vehicles. Already, this
16:11
Speaker 5: wasn't taxed for things like tractors, for example, for off-road
16:15
Speaker 5: uses on farms. So it's not clear exactly if this
16:18
Speaker 5: is going to bring any more relief to agricultural sector-oriented
16:23
Speaker 5: voters as the president travels to Nebraska today.
16:26
Speaker 6: They already haven't been paying a tax on this.
16:27
Speaker 1: Well, that's true.
16:28
Speaker 7: I guess this would allow more people to use it, though,
16:31
Speaker 7: which is the idea. Maybe you could get a cheaper tank.
16:33
Speaker 7: But the fact of the matter is We're pretty darn
16:36
Speaker 7: close still, while we've pulled back a bit. It's pretty
16:38
Speaker 7: darn close to all-time highs, and essentially double where the
16:41
Speaker 7: price was a year ago. So whether the headline has
16:44
Speaker 7: an impact, I guess we're about to find out, because
16:46
Speaker 7: the president will be wheels up soon to Nebraska. And
16:49
Speaker 7: it's where we start with our political panel, with a
16:51
Speaker 7: lot to talk about on the midterm campaign trail and
16:54
Speaker 7: a boatload of polling that came out from over the weekend.
16:57
Speaker 7: Rick Davis and Jeanne Shanzano join us now. Our Bloomberg
16:59
Speaker 7: Politics contributor, she is our Democratic Analyst and Democracy Visiting
17:03
Speaker 7: Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick is our
17:06
Speaker 7: Republican strategist and partner at Stonecourt Capital.
17:10
Speaker 1: Not sure your thoughts on this, Jeannie.
17:11
Speaker 7: Does it matter if it works when there's only 29
17:14
Speaker 7: days left, or is it about being caught in the
17:16
Speaker 7: act of trying?
17:19
Speaker 3: You know, it's probably better than nothing, but at this point,
17:24
Speaker 3: it's really uncertain what kind of impact this could have.
17:27
Speaker 3: I mean, just very minimally, it's got to be passed
17:30
Speaker 3: down to consumers to I have to confess to you
17:33
Speaker 3: and Kayleigh, I have never heard of red dye diesel
17:36
Speaker 3: in my life until today.
17:38
Speaker 1: A lot of people are learning.
17:40
Speaker 3: So, I mean, you know, I don't know that regular
17:43
Speaker 3: voters like me are going to be sitting at home
17:45
Speaker 3: and saying, wow, you know, red dye diesel costs, you know,
17:49
Speaker 3: we don't have to pay taxes on that. So I
17:52
Speaker 3: think it's a little bit too far. I think the
17:54
Speaker 3: president's time at these rallies is would be better spent
17:58
Speaker 3: talking about what he is going to do to deal
18:01
Speaker 3: with the structural issues. Number one, the war in the
18:05
Speaker 3: Middle East that he got us into. And of course,
18:08
Speaker 3: the Truth Social post blaming this on Ukraine and blue
18:11
Speaker 3: states is just another example of him not talking about
18:16
Speaker 3: what people really care about, which is how are you
18:18
Speaker 3: going to address this problem in a full-throated way and
18:22
Speaker 3: make my life easier and more cost-effective?
18:27
Speaker 5: So, Rick, does the president need to bring more in
18:29
Speaker 5: hand to Nebraska than here? I'm taking this action on
18:32
Speaker 5: red dye diesel.
18:35
Speaker 8: Well, yeah, I mean, look, Nebraska is a rural state
18:38
Speaker 8: and there have been a lot of big impacts from
18:40
Speaker 8: this administration's last two years on rural America. And so
18:44
Speaker 8: part of the message. that he needs to be sending
18:48
Speaker 8: to a state like Nebraska is what is he doing
18:51
Speaker 8: to try and make rural America better, right? I mean, obviously,
18:54
Speaker 8: cost of living is foremost in that, but also health care.
18:58
Speaker 8: What's the message on health care? The president has been
19:00
Speaker 8: talking about, you know, additional spending, you know, $ 50 checks,
19:04
Speaker 8: $ 90 checks, $ 5, 000 checks. you know, to Medicaid and Medicare recipients,
19:13
Speaker 8: you know, but I bet you we don't hear much
19:15
Speaker 8: of that today in Grand Isle. So, you know, there's
19:20
Speaker 8: there are things he should be talking about to impact
19:23
Speaker 8: voters in a state like this. But if you if
19:26
Speaker 8: the rural voters that went for Donald Trump in such
19:29
Speaker 8: huge numbers in 24 decided to stay home and not vote,
19:32
Speaker 8: it actually could make this an interesting race.
19:36
Speaker 1: Rick, I want to get your take on Texas. We've
19:38
Speaker 1: talked a lot about it.
19:39
Speaker 7: And over the weekend, we got a new number, James
19:41
Speaker 7: Talrico leading Ken Paxton by six points. That's according to
19:46
Speaker 7: Sienna and the New York Times. Ken Paxton caught on tape,
19:50
Speaker 7: and we were just talking about this with Mick Mulvaney,
19:52
Speaker 7: which makes me want to bring this up. Mick had
19:54
Speaker 7: some pretty tough words for Ken Paxton, labeling him as
19:58
Speaker 7: a just bad candidate who may well lose to the
20:02
Speaker 7: Democrat and do something that Democrats were unable to pull
20:05
Speaker 7: off for a generation, which is actually win the Senate
20:10
Speaker 7: seat here. He was caught on tape meeting with lobbyists
20:13
Speaker 7: in Washington, which is also never a great look, saying,
20:16
Speaker 7: I miss the days when I could go get around
20:18
Speaker 7: with all the people. He said, when it comes to
20:20
Speaker 7: your messaging in a federal race, it comes from other
20:23
Speaker 7: people a lot of times, which you don't control. Is
20:27
Speaker 7: that the fact? Is that the reality for most Senate candidates?
20:30
Speaker 7: Or is this Ken Paxton's world?
20:34
Speaker 8: Well, it certainly is Ken Paxton's world. And, you know, like, Ken,
20:37
Speaker 8: I beg to differ. I mean, you spent the entire
20:39
Speaker 8: summer traveling all over the world with your girlfriend and
20:42
Speaker 8: not in Texas campaigning. So maybe there needed to be
20:45
Speaker 8: a change in the outlook of his campaign a little bit.
20:48
Speaker 8: And then when hundreds of millions of dollars come in,
20:51
Speaker 8: those people who raise that money and take the polls
20:54
Speaker 8: and are concerned about that race are going to want
20:56
Speaker 8: to say and how that money is spent and how
20:58
Speaker 8: that campaign's going. I mean, it is arguable that Ken
21:01
Speaker 8: Paxton may be the worst candidate the Republicans have running
21:04
Speaker 8: for the United States Senate in this cycle.
21:08
Speaker 5: Well, and Mick Mulvaney, I think, agreed with you referring
21:12
Speaker 5: to him as the weakest one. So, Jeannie, weigh in
21:15
Speaker 5: here on Ken Paxton's issue. Is it that D.C. is
21:19
Speaker 5: driving the messaging of his campaign or is it simply
21:22
Speaker 5: the candidate himself?
21:25
Speaker 3: The candidate himself. It is the fact that the president
21:28
Speaker 3: insisted on pushing out a Republican incumbent in John Cornyn
21:33
Speaker 3: who could have made this, you know, I think probably
21:36
Speaker 3: would have won or made this a race. Kayleigh, I
21:40
Speaker 3: have to say, things have gotten so bad for Paxton
21:43
Speaker 3: that his estranged wife is now cutting ads for him.
21:47
Speaker 3: The latest one, she doesn't mention him, but she says,
21:51
Speaker 3: you know, we need to vote for the Republican team
21:54
Speaker 3: down here. And, of course, he's also appearing on an
21:58
Speaker 3: interview with his daughter. And you know things have gotten
22:02
Speaker 3: bad when that is where he is, not to mention,
22:05
Speaker 3: you know, now the second drop of audio from a
22:10
Speaker 3: closed meeting. I mean, Republicans are so frustrated with Ken Paxton.
22:16
Speaker 3: Even the president is calling him a pain in the
22:18
Speaker 3: you-know-what and not well-dressed and all these things. But it
22:21
Speaker 3: is the president's fault that he is there. And, of course—
22:25
Speaker 3: Donald Trump owns this. And by the way, I should
22:28
Speaker 3: just add, Tallarico is a really, really good candidate. You
22:32
Speaker 3: combine that with the environment, the economy and everything else.
22:36
Speaker 3: And I may be able to bet Rick Davis that
22:39
Speaker 3: Texas goes Democrat in the Senate this year.
22:42
Speaker 1: So there you go.
22:44
Speaker 7: Would that be tripling down? I'm going to have to
22:46
Speaker 7: follow up with both of you guys. By the way,
22:49
Speaker 7: the president's going back there. He's going to be on
22:52
Speaker 7: stage with Ken Paxton in just a couple of days
22:54
Speaker 7: from now.
22:55
Speaker 3: J.D.
22:56
Speaker 1: Vance today, Rick, is in Alaska. This is another interesting one.
22:59
Speaker 7: The same CNN, New York Times poll finds Mary Paltola, again,
23:02
Speaker 7: the Democrat, ahead of Senator Dan Sullivan with the S
23:06
Speaker 7: by seven percentage points.
23:09
Speaker 1: What should be J.D. Vance's message today? You know, look,
23:14
Speaker 1: I mean, J.D.
23:14
Speaker 8: Vance's message should be the same as the president's, which
23:18
Speaker 8: should be right out of the polling data. We care
23:20
Speaker 8: about what you're doing with your economy. We care about
23:25
Speaker 8: kitchen table issues. We care about the price of gas
23:28
Speaker 8: and diesel. We care about the cost of goods that
23:31
Speaker 8: you have in your refrigerator. It really should be a
23:34
Speaker 8: personal message. I mean, look, the nice thing about Alaska
23:37
Speaker 8: is there aren't very many voters. And so it's not
23:40
Speaker 8: that hard to communicate with them, even though they're spread
23:42
Speaker 8: all over you know, the big state of Alaska. The
23:45
Speaker 8: downside is there are very few minds to change. So,
23:49
Speaker 8: you know, this election is locking up. People are voting
23:53
Speaker 8: in 43 states today, and Alaska is no exception to
23:57
Speaker 8: that rule. So the clock is ticking, and it's probably
23:59
Speaker 8: going to take a lot more, you know, trips from
24:02
Speaker 8: the vice president or the president to try and change
24:05
Speaker 8: the public's attitude toward this administration's approach to cost of living.
24:10
Speaker 7: Did you hear Trump say Friday night, Kayleigh, that people
24:12
Speaker 7: go ahead and vote by mail? He said, get out
24:14
Speaker 7: and vote, vote by mail, vote in person.
24:16
Speaker 6: Consistent messaging.
24:17
Speaker 1: It's getting down to be that time, though.
24:19
Speaker 6: The messenger who has so frequently cast doubt on vote
24:22
Speaker 6: by mail.
24:23
Speaker 1: That's true.
24:24
Speaker 5: As Rick talks about, Jeannie, the idea that things are solidifying,
24:27
Speaker 5: that there's little time left to change minds, does sending
24:30
Speaker 5: out $ 90 checks to seniors to help with Medicare Part
24:34
Speaker 5: B help? premiums do anything if those checks go out
24:39
Speaker 5: this month? Because that's what the president says that they're
24:42
Speaker 5: going to do.
24:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kayleigh, this to me is the biggest let them
24:48
Speaker 3: eat cake moment we've seen from Donald Trump. This is
24:53
Speaker 3: a party that cut access to health care amongst the elderly,
24:59
Speaker 3: amongst the poor, in rural areas. It has been a
25:03
Speaker 3: disastrous disaster. disastrous impact on the one big beautiful or
25:08
Speaker 3: one big ugly bill as people talked about. They ended
25:11
Speaker 3: Medicare D subsidies, the expiration of the ACA tax credits.
25:16
Speaker 3: I mean, you can keep going down the list. And
25:19
Speaker 3: he is now saying, I am going to send you
25:21
Speaker 3: a $ 90 check to make up for enormous tax cut
25:27
Speaker 3: that I levied on or enormous cuts that I levied
25:30
Speaker 3: on you. and giving tax breaks to billionaires with all
25:33
Speaker 3: that funding. I mean, this to me is the most
25:38
Speaker 3: maddening of his giveaway proposals. And we've seen a lot because,
25:43
Speaker 3: of course, it is something that they have worked to
25:47
Speaker 3: really undercut in so many ways. And there's not an
25:51
Speaker 3: elderly person in the country or a person in the
25:54
Speaker 3: country impacted by these cuts who is going to say, oh,
25:56
Speaker 3: thank you for this $ 90. I feel good about the
26:00
Speaker 3: thousands of other rest of the dollars I have to
26:02
Speaker 3: spend on health care now, thanks to what you've.
26:04
Speaker 6: Done in office.
26:06
Speaker 1: Yeah. So you mentioned this, Rick, what's your thought on this?
26:10
Speaker 7: I mean, this is not obviously going to be life-changing
26:12
Speaker 7: money for people. Maybe this is good politics, but nobody's
26:16
Speaker 7: going to take that check and say, all right, mom
26:19
Speaker 7: can have that surgery now. Mom can afford that operation.
26:24
Speaker 7: What's the benefit of sending checks for that amount?
26:27
Speaker 9: Yeah.
26:27
Speaker 8: At this day and age, uh, it's like a tank
26:31
Speaker 8: of diesel fuel.
26:34
Speaker 1: I guess that's right.
26:36
Speaker 8: Just to fill up your car.
26:39
Speaker 1: So yeah, look, it's a talking point.
26:41
Speaker 8: I think he's trying to connect with an audience that
26:43
Speaker 8: he hasn't spent a lot of time with, and Congress
26:46
Speaker 8: has unfortunately cut a lot of these programs that they
26:51
Speaker 8: would have otherwise been supported with. So it is a
26:55
Speaker 8: change in heart, a change in messaging, and I think
26:59
Speaker 8: It's certainly better than what's been happening up until this
27:03
Speaker 8: point in time. And whether it actually changes the vote
27:07
Speaker 8: by 90 bucks is not likely, but it hopefully will
27:09
Speaker 8: change some minds from a policy point of view.
27:14
Speaker 2: All right.
27:14
Speaker 5: Rick Davis and Jeanne Shanzano, both of them Bloomberg Politics
27:17
Speaker 5: contributors in our political panel today. Thank you so much.
27:20
Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
27:23
Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
27:28
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
27:32
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27:35
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27:38
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27:41
Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
27:44
Speaker 7: Thanks for being with us on the Monday edition. We're
27:46
Speaker 7: always checking crude oil, and that's part of the markets.
27:49
Speaker 7: Part of the direction the markets take is based on
27:52
Speaker 7: whether oil is up or down. But it's distillates that
27:54
Speaker 7: we're talking about today, not just gasoline at a national
27:58
Speaker 7: average of $ 4. 36, but diesel, more importantly, $ 6. 32. essentially double
28:06
Speaker 7: where it was, Kayleigh, one year ago. And that's why
28:09
Speaker 7: the president is seizing on red dye diesel. A lot
28:11
Speaker 7: of people are getting a lesson in this. They actually
28:14
Speaker 7: dye it red so the taxman can tell, inspectors can
28:17
Speaker 7: tell whether this is tax exempt or not. It's used
28:19
Speaker 7: by the agricultural sector and the president's going to be
28:22
Speaker 7: easing limits on this. So I guess we can all
28:24
Speaker 7: dip into the red dye, whether it lowers prices is
28:27
Speaker 7: the question.
28:28
Speaker 9: Yeah.
28:28
Speaker 5: So that you can put this to any vehicle that
28:30
Speaker 5: drives on the road, not just through a cornfield, for example,
28:33
Speaker 5: and this would essentially eliminate a 24 cent tax on
28:37
Speaker 5: a gallon of diesel, diesel, as that's the federal excise amount.
28:40
Speaker 5: But to your point, 24 cents does not take dollars
28:44
Speaker 5: off of a gallon. And that is how much these
28:46
Speaker 5: prices have increased over a relatively short period of time.
28:48
Speaker 5: So let's get more now as we turn to Tom Kloza,
28:51
Speaker 5: who is, of course, an oil analyst. We speak to
28:53
Speaker 5: you frequently on this program. He's founder and chair of
28:55
Speaker 5: Kloza Advisors, chief energy advisor to Gulf.
28:59
Speaker 1: Oil as well.
28:59
Speaker 6: And he's back with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
29:02
Speaker 5: Tom, it's always good to have you, especially on a
29:05
Speaker 5: day like today where we expect the president to make
29:07
Speaker 5: this move. What will it really accomplish?
29:11
Speaker 2: It won't accomplish much. This is really a cosmetic gesture.
29:15
Speaker 2: It's not a major lever. There's about 105 million barrels
29:20
Speaker 2: of diesel in the country, and there aren't that many
29:23
Speaker 2: that are red. So it's probably really good news if
29:27
Speaker 2: you're the manufacturer of the dye, but otherwise it doesn't
29:30
Speaker 2: mean much. It's just a way to basically grant tax
29:34
Speaker 2: relief on a lot of the product that's used by farmers.
29:39
Speaker 1: Are we plateauing? here, Tom?
29:41
Speaker 7: I'm looking at $ 6.
29:42
Speaker 1: 32.
29:43
Speaker 7: It's down from $ 6. 45 a week ago, realizing it's doubled
29:48
Speaker 7: in a year. Have we found or discovered the new price,
29:52
Speaker 7: or could it keep rising?
29:54
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think this is the new normal.
29:57
Speaker 2: I think that if you look at, let's say, Election Day,
30:00
Speaker 2: it's going to be a four and a six handle
30:02
Speaker 2: for gasoline and diesel. We're already looking at some modest
30:07
Speaker 2: decreases for gasoline, maybe not so much for diesel. And
30:12
Speaker 2: there's a lot of talk about different things, but people
30:15
Speaker 2: don't realize that this is going to make a lot
30:16
Speaker 2: of difference. It's like the European Union sale of what
30:21
Speaker 2: they call their strategic diesel. That could be a lot
30:24
Speaker 2: of fuel that's moving from one pocket to another and
30:27
Speaker 2: not really making that much of an impact in markets.
30:32
Speaker 5: So you don't think that 100 million barrels of reserve
30:35
Speaker 5: releases that they announced last week does much at all? Tom,
30:38
Speaker 5: if that doesn't work, if the excise tax relief doesn't work,
30:42
Speaker 5: then what will?
30:44
Speaker 2: The only thing that works is to resolve the conflicts,
30:46
Speaker 2: whether it be the conflict in Russia, you know, where
30:49
Speaker 2: they're down 3 million barrels a day of refining. conflict
30:52
Speaker 2: in the Persian Gulf, which has been quiet, but which
30:55
Speaker 2: knocked out a lot of refining early on. And then
30:58
Speaker 2: the conflict in the Red Sea. You know, within the
31:00
Speaker 2: morning here, we're hearing about a couple of refineries in
31:04
Speaker 2: Western Saudi Arabia that may have been attacked by the Houthis. And,
31:07
Speaker 2: you know, this drone warfare is really a genie out
31:10
Speaker 2: of the bottle for a lot of different places.
31:12
Speaker 7: I want to ask you about the president's reference to
31:18
Speaker 7: record numbers of barrels leaving from Hormuz.
31:22
Speaker 1: J.P.
31:23
Speaker 7: Morgan and Goldman Sachs both indicated that we're approaching pre-war levels.
31:27
Speaker 1: Are we there yet, Tom? Does it matter?
31:30
Speaker 2: You know, I think we might be close to pre-war.
31:33
Speaker 2: I think we might be close to pre-war levels. But
31:35
Speaker 2: here's the rub. You're at pre-war levels that are moving
31:38
Speaker 2: out of the Persian Gulf and moving out of the
31:40
Speaker 2: Red Sea. But the big difference is back in the
31:44
Speaker 2: end of February, it cost $ 1. 75 to move that oil
31:47
Speaker 2: to markets in Asia. Today, it costs about $ 33 a barrel.
31:52
Speaker 2: And that increase in freight and transportation is really embedded
31:57
Speaker 2: within the price for not just crude oil, but for
32:00
Speaker 2: refined products around the world.
32:04
Speaker 5: Well, and the refining is another challenge that you were
32:08
Speaker 5: alluding to, Tom, with what's happening in Russia with Ukrainian
32:12
Speaker 5: attacks on Russian refineries in particular. President Trump actually talked
32:15
Speaker 5: about this on True Social today, saying, and I'm quoting
32:18
Speaker 5: him directly, what's driving up gasoline is no longer the
32:21
Speaker 5: Strait of Hormuz because record numbers of barrels are coming
32:23
Speaker 5: out now on almost a daily basis, but the word refineries.
32:26
Speaker 1: where.
32:27
Speaker 5: Russia's are being blown up by Ukraine and where ours
32:29
Speaker 5: are being closed up in blue states like California by
32:33
Speaker 5: the Democrats.
32:33
Speaker 6: Is he totally right with all of that?
32:36
Speaker 5: Is it really more about the refineries and no longer
32:39
Speaker 5: about the straight?
32:41
Speaker 2: He's partially right. Certainly refining is a major, major issue
32:45
Speaker 2: right now, but it's not exactly supportive of Zelensky. They're
32:49
Speaker 2: facing a crisis, an existential crisis. And The only way
32:54
Speaker 2: they can lash out at Russia is to hurt Putin
32:57
Speaker 2: in his wallet. Now, he said, I think yesterday, Zelensky
33:01
Speaker 2: said that we're going to aim for more refineries to
33:04
Speaker 2: have a bigger impact. And by the way, about the
33:07
Speaker 2: blue states, yeah, the blue states, California, really. did inaugurate
33:11
Speaker 2: some rules that drove a couple of refineries out, but
33:14
Speaker 2: that's kind of old news. Right now, if you're operating
33:17
Speaker 2: a refinery in the United States, you are minting money,
33:20
Speaker 2: not because of any malfeasance, but just simply because the
33:23
Speaker 2: market is rewarding you.
33:26
Speaker 7: Tom, there was some remarkable reporting in the Wall Street
33:28
Speaker 7: Journal earlier over the weekend about how truckers are taking
33:34
Speaker 7: different shortcuts to try to survive soaring diesel prices.
33:39
Speaker 1: Cooking meals in their cabs.
33:41
Speaker 7: They're sleeping where they unhook their trailers to avoid overnight
33:44
Speaker 7: parking fees.
33:46
Speaker 1: In many cases.
33:48
Speaker 7: actually losing money when they put $ 1, 000 in the tank,
33:52
Speaker 7: what would have been $ 500.
33:55
Speaker 1: Six or seven months ago.
33:56
Speaker 7: The stories that came from the Flying J Travel Center
33:59
Speaker 7: off I-10 in Orange, Texas, bring home what this means
34:04
Speaker 7: for owner-operators.
34:05
Speaker 1: How many of them will go out of business because
34:08
Speaker 1: of this? Well, I hope not.
34:11
Speaker 2: And I'd really like to be a motivational rep as
34:14
Speaker 2: opposed to a demotivational speaker. But boy, driving a truck
34:17
Speaker 2: is a tough business right now. And I believe I've
34:20
Speaker 2: seen it on the maps that you see posted every
34:23
Speaker 2: once in a while. It's probably the number one occupation
34:26
Speaker 2: in like 30 or 40 states.
34:28
Speaker 1: So it is a.
34:29
Speaker 2: Terrible, terrible onus on them at the moment. If they're
34:33
Speaker 2: doing that all from, let's say, Long Beach, The busiest
34:36
Speaker 2: port in the country to Dallas, it's $ 1, 450 in costs
34:41
Speaker 2: for diesel. And that's got to impact something. And beyond
34:44
Speaker 2: impacting that poor truck driver, it's going to impact people
34:47
Speaker 2: on whatever they buy.
34:50
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, this is the feed-through inflationary costs that we've
34:54
Speaker 5: long been questioning, Tom, as to when that might show up.
34:57
Speaker 5: to a larger extent in the economy. The thinking, of course, though,
35:00
Speaker 5: is that at some point, and we've talked about this before,
35:03
Speaker 5: the cure for higher prices becomes higher prices. Would you
35:06
Speaker 5: expect to start seeing just outright demand destruction anytime soon
35:11
Speaker 5: if we remain at these elevated levels?
35:14
Speaker 1: I think so, but it's not like gasoline.
35:16
Speaker 2: With gasoline, it's easier to assume that there's going to
35:19
Speaker 2: be tremendous demand destruction because people don't need necessarily to
35:24
Speaker 2: go to the mall three or four times a month.
35:27
Speaker 2: But with diesel, it's much more difficult. If you're using
35:30
Speaker 2: it for mining, you're going to continue to use it.
35:32
Speaker 2: If you're using it for agriculture, you need to use
35:36
Speaker 2: it because you don't want to leave those crops in
35:39
Speaker 2: the field. And in heating oil, you know, we're looking
35:42
Speaker 2: at a season in the Northeast where 4 million people
35:44
Speaker 2: use heating oil, and that's going to cost them $ 6. 25.
35:48
Speaker 2: You can buy only so many sweaters, but you're going
35:50
Speaker 2: to have to probably shut off zones in the house
35:53
Speaker 2: based on what's coming down our way. And by the way,
35:55
Speaker 2: just to add a little bit more gloom and doom
35:58
Speaker 2: on a Monday, if you look in the Gulf of Mexico,
36:01
Speaker 2: there's a storm forming in the southwestern Gulf, and it
36:04
Speaker 2: looks like it could actually brush up against New Orleans
36:08
Speaker 2: or Mississippi later.
36:09
Speaker 3: In the week.
36:10
Speaker 7: Wow.
36:11
Speaker 8: Oh, my God.
36:12
Speaker 1: Well, that would be a big deal. Just what we needed.
36:14
Speaker 9: Yeah.
36:14
Speaker 7: Tom's been warning us about that very thing since the
36:17
Speaker 7: beginning of hurricane season.
36:19
Speaker 1: Tom Kloza, thank you, joining us as energy advisor, the
36:23
Speaker 1: chief at Gulf Oil.
36:25
Speaker 7: The other big story that we haven't touched today, and
36:28
Speaker 7: of course, we'll get back to all of this as
36:29
Speaker 7: we make our way toward the late edition of Balance
36:32
Speaker 7: of Power, is the new term, the Supreme Court. Kayleigh,
36:35
Speaker 7: we've been talking about the fact that the Senate House
36:37
Speaker 7: out of session, there's nobody in town, but there's something
36:39
Speaker 7: pretty important happening on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.
36:41
Speaker 7: 10 a.m., oral arguments in a case that will answer
36:44
Speaker 7: whether big oil can be sued for damages in climate change.
36:49
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is the Exxon Suncorp case.
36:51
Speaker 11: Yeah.
36:52
Speaker 5: Knowing that they were facing a suit from Boulder, Colorado.
36:56
Speaker 5: And this is also an interesting one because not every
36:58
Speaker 5: justice is going to be weighing in. Justice Alito recused himself.
37:01
Speaker 5: So a 4-4 decision is possible here. And he was
37:05
Speaker 5: listening to the arguments today and covering this case and
37:07
Speaker 5: all of the cases before the court for us is Bloomberg's.
37:09
Speaker 5: Greg Storr, who's here with us in our DC studio.
37:12
Speaker 5: So Greg, we have a lot to talk about, but
37:13
Speaker 5: let's start with this first case. How did the justices
37:16
Speaker 5: indicate they're thinking about this one and the eight of them.
37:18
Speaker 6: That are actually involved?
37:20
Speaker 11: Yeah, Kaylee, it was a bit inconclusive. So the core
37:23
Speaker 11: question is whether federal law precludes this suit, which was
37:26
Speaker 11: filed under Colorado state law from going forward. As you said,
37:30
Speaker 11: there were only eight justices, so that opens up the
37:32
Speaker 11: possibility of.
37:33
Speaker 10: A 4-4 split.
37:35
Speaker 11: And there were really questions kind of all over the map.
37:38
Speaker 11: Some justices suggesting that their precedents said that this is
37:41
Speaker 11: not an area where states and local governments have a
37:44
Speaker 11: role where it's exclusively federal because we're talking about inherently
37:48
Speaker 11: interstate stuff, pollution, climate change, actually international. And some other
37:52
Speaker 11: justices saying, hey, we've got these other precedents that say
37:57
Speaker 11: that you can sue over stuff that happens out of
37:59
Speaker 11: state as long as it has an effect in state.
38:02
Speaker 11: And hard right now to say how it's going to
38:04
Speaker 11: come out.
38:05
Speaker 7: Kaylee mentioned Alito is recusing himself.
38:08
Speaker 1: How come?
38:09
Speaker 11: I talked to him last week, and what he said
38:11
Speaker 11: was his wife owns some individual oil company stocks, not
38:16
Speaker 11: Exxon or Suncor, a couple other companies. And he said
38:19
Speaker 11: that even though the counsel's office there at the court
38:22
Speaker 11: said he didn't have to, he said, I looked at
38:24
Speaker 11: the briefs, and I thought the prudent thing to do
38:26
Speaker 11: was to not be involved. By the way, there are
38:29
Speaker 11: about 30 other lawsuits out there, very similar, and a
38:34
Speaker 11: couple of those have to do with companies that his
38:36
Speaker 11: wife does own stock in.
38:38
Speaker 9: I see.
38:38
Speaker 5: Well, and of course, there's plenty of other suits and
38:40
Speaker 5: cases that are going to be coming before the court
38:42
Speaker 5: this term. Other than the Sex on Suncor case, there's
38:45
Speaker 5: a few immigration ones as well, including.
38:47
Speaker 6: The third-party deportations.
38:49
Speaker 5: When are we expecting arguments on that, and how quickly
38:52
Speaker 5: could we get a decision?
38:53
Speaker 2: Yes.
38:53
Speaker 11: So that one is one that they've expedited. They're going
38:55
Speaker 11: to hear arguments in December. And the question is, when
38:58
Speaker 11: somebody is deportable because they're at risk of torture if
39:03
Speaker 11: they go back to their own country, when the government says, okay,
39:06
Speaker 11: we're going to send you to a different country, a
39:08
Speaker 11: third country, the question is how much notice should they
39:11
Speaker 11: have so they have a chance to say, hey, actually,
39:13
Speaker 11: that third country is also really, really dangerous and I
39:16
Speaker 11: shouldn't be sent there. The Supreme Court in an emergency
39:20
Speaker 11: order said, The administration could continue sending people without giving
39:25
Speaker 11: them much of any notice. So that's the state of
39:27
Speaker 11: play right now. That may be where they're leaning. But
39:30
Speaker 11: we'll find out for sure when they hear arguments in
39:32
Speaker 11: December and presumably rule a few months later.
39:35
Speaker 1: What else should our viewers and listeners be focused on
39:37
Speaker 1: this term, Greg?
39:38
Speaker 11: So certainly there's a big case about assault weapons. The
39:41
Speaker 11: court's going to hear arguments whether states and local governments
39:44
Speaker 11: can ban them or whether the Second Amendment says you
39:46
Speaker 11: have a constitutional right to own them. And then, of course,
39:51
Speaker 11: we're thinking about the election. There are not any major
39:54
Speaker 11: election cases on the docket right now, none that I
39:57
Speaker 11: see in the pipeline before the election. But if this
40:00
Speaker 11: ends up close, you could certainly see battles over the
40:03
Speaker 11: certification of results at individual states, or perhaps whether a
40:08
Speaker 11: new Congress can take their seats or whether we're going
40:10
Speaker 11: to have a fight within Congress over that.
40:12
Speaker 5: Well, and when you consider just the number of court
40:15
Speaker 5: challenges that have preceded the midterms.
40:17
Speaker 6: You can only imagine how litigious it could get in
40:19
Speaker 6: the aftermath.
40:20
Speaker 5: Greg Storr covering all of it for us as our
40:22
Speaker 5: Supreme Court reporter here at Bloomberg. Thank you so much.
40:25
Speaker 5: And we'll continue to track the court as these cases
40:29
Speaker 5: move forward.
40:31
Speaker 7: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
40:34
Speaker 7: sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify,
40:37
Speaker 7: or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find
40:40
Speaker 7: us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern
40:43
Speaker 7: at Bloomberg.com.