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NFC West Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast network.
0:13
Speaker 1: We are counting down the days. It is Tuesday, August three,
0:19
Speaker 1: one in nine days, the NFL season will kick off
0:23
Speaker 1: with the Thursday night game. We have two more divisions
0:27
Speaker 1: to cover here on the Favorites podcast. We have been
0:30
Speaker 1: doing it all summer, counting down every single division. Which
0:33
Speaker 1: team has improved, which team is not. There are Super
0:37
Speaker 1: Bowl odds, Conference odds, division odds totals with my bff,
0:42
Speaker 1: my companion, my compote read Sun and Hunter Professional Better.
0:50
Speaker 1: How are you, buddy, Chad? No days off, buddy, We're here.
0:53
Speaker 1: We don't miss any days. We're ready for football. We
0:56
Speaker 1: are so deep into football. I wanted on the record
1:00
Speaker 1: that I won my first college football bet of the
1:05
Speaker 1: year I had after listening to the Big Bets on
1:10
Speaker 1: Campus podcast with Colin and Stucky. They were so they
1:16
Speaker 1: were They both felt so strongly about Illinois Nebraska under
1:21
Speaker 1: UH that I went forward even though I knew I
1:23
Speaker 1: was getting the worst of the number. They liked it
1:25
Speaker 1: under fifty seven. It got that down. They still liked
1:28
Speaker 1: it at fifty four. It was at fifty two and
1:30
Speaker 1: a half. And the podcast comes out on Thursday. I
1:33
Speaker 1: listened to it on Saturday morning, I walked the Dog.
1:35
Speaker 1: It's my like fall podcast ritual. Saturday morning, walked the Dog,
1:39
Speaker 1: listen to Big Bets on campus. I get the fifty
1:43
Speaker 1: two and a half. I'm feeling good about it the
1:46
Speaker 1: whole game. I Uh, open up the Action Network gap
1:52
Speaker 1: because I had to step away. I see that all
1:54
Speaker 1: of a sudden, it's thirty to sixteen with nine minutes left,
1:57
Speaker 1: and my percentage chance of covering has gone from to
2:01
Speaker 1: about two. And uh, I turn on the game. Miraculously,
2:07
Speaker 1: Nebraska's terrible, missing extra points, all the stuff that doesn't
2:10
Speaker 1: work for them, that, all the mistakes they make. It's
2:12
Speaker 1: gonna caust Scott for Ross's job. They have a fourth
2:16
Speaker 1: and god knows what, Adrian Martinez throws the ball. Uh,
2:19
Speaker 1: it's incomplete, Illinois getting the ball back. There's eleven seconds left.
2:23
Speaker 1: It's thirty two two. At this point, I know the
2:27
Speaker 1: game's over mentally, but emotionally, I'm not ready to let
2:30
Speaker 1: it go yet. My fourteen year old is sitting with
2:33
Speaker 1: me on the couch and says, all right, let's change
2:35
Speaker 1: the channel like we were watching NFL Top one. I'm
2:38
Speaker 1: like guy, we're not changing the channel. He goes, the
2:41
Speaker 1: game's over. I'm like, it's not fucking over. It's two
2:47
Speaker 1: really bad teams. Anything go wrong in the last eleven
2:50
Speaker 1: seconds during the kneel down, give me this. I give
2:53
Speaker 1: you so much in my life, give me this eleven seconds.
2:58
Speaker 1: Illinois one covered under. Everything worked out okay, but it
3:04
Speaker 1: was a good way to get through training camp for NFL.
3:06
Speaker 1: Oh that's the best half a half a point cover.
3:08
Speaker 1: I would say I had a horrible beat last week.
3:11
Speaker 1: I had the Eagles moneyline and the Jets had a
3:14
Speaker 1: held Mary. Then their preseason game, they get the hell
3:17
Speaker 1: marry then they run in the two point conversion to
3:18
Speaker 1: get a push. I was so sick in my stomach.
3:21
Speaker 1: But that's why I'm just so glad it's over chat.
3:23
Speaker 1: Now I can complain about the regular season, no excuses,
3:26
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, I can't take this preseason. Well,
3:28
Speaker 1: what's annoying is during the preseason and the regular season,
3:30
Speaker 1: it's not like in the preseason you're playing with fake money. No.
3:34
Speaker 1: The funniest two is people are like, you bet on preseason,
3:36
Speaker 1: and it's like, don't be that guy. Honestly, it's like, yeah,
3:40
Speaker 1: of course I do. I'm a degenerate and this is
3:42
Speaker 1: my job. I bet on preseason. I've been on everything.
3:45
Speaker 1: It's one of those things where it's like, look, you
3:47
Speaker 1: could be that guy. You can be that guy and
3:50
Speaker 1: and one day it'll be good enough to get you
3:52
Speaker 1: a job as the brand ambassador at a major sports book.
3:55
Speaker 1: It's true. And it's also one of those things where
3:57
Speaker 1: it's like, if you haven't been betting the Ravens, you
4:01
Speaker 1: have wasted three years of your life as a gambler,
4:03
Speaker 1: because it is seriously, I mean, Chad, I don't know
4:05
Speaker 1: if you have numbers are in front of you. It's like,
4:07
Speaker 1: I think they're eight two and one on covering in
4:10
Speaker 1: the last like four years. So just a pure of
4:12
Speaker 1: money maker. Every every bet I make, I either throw
4:15
Speaker 1: their money line in there or whatever. We're not worthy.
4:17
Speaker 1: I should say that right now. We are not worthy.
4:19
Speaker 1: Thank God for the Baltimore Ravens and all the money
4:21
Speaker 1: they've given them. Alright today we are doing the NFC West,
4:25
Speaker 1: which to me is far and away the best division
4:28
Speaker 1: in the NFL. The Niners, the Rams, the Seahawks at Vanduel.
4:33
Speaker 1: Their season win totals are all over ten Arizona is
4:37
Speaker 1: over eight and a half. Um, the Niners and the
4:40
Speaker 1: Rams are both amongst the top five ten teams in
4:46
Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds. Seattle just outside that. Um, we're gonna
4:50
Speaker 1: get to all that. We're gonna break it down super
4:53
Speaker 1: Bowl Conference division totals. Before we do that, we've had
4:56
Speaker 1: so much news already on a Tuesday morning. Number one,
5:01
Speaker 1: Suddenly Trey Lance is super m V p odds are shrinking.
5:07
Speaker 1: Everyone is piling in. You've been all over this for
5:10
Speaker 1: like three months. What did you get it at? Why
5:13
Speaker 1: is this happening? And that's that's always the tough part.
5:16
Speaker 1: Two about these sports books that limited you. So I
5:19
Speaker 1: got him a three one, but they only let me
5:21
Speaker 1: get down two hundred dollars. So it's like I tried
5:24
Speaker 1: bet in a grand but it was in March. The
5:25
Speaker 1: sports books were like, okay, we're not taking this kind
5:27
Speaker 1: of liability. So I got him a three one, I
5:29
Speaker 1: got him a two one. I think we gave him
5:31
Speaker 1: out here at one fifth year. Um. Again, I try
5:36
Speaker 1: to explain to people, I don't think Trey Lance is
5:37
Speaker 1: really gonna win m VP, but it's a value based
5:40
Speaker 1: bet where it's like this kid in the Shanahan's offense.
5:42
Speaker 1: So if he can put together a year like r
5:44
Speaker 1: G three to his rookie year, you're gonna get a
5:46
Speaker 1: good hedge opportunity to end of the season. And obviously
5:49
Speaker 1: didn't go the way I thought I was gonna go.
5:50
Speaker 1: I thought by now they were to trade Jimmy. Um,
5:53
Speaker 1: it is funny the way they talk about it, where
5:55
Speaker 1: they're saying they're gonna do a qute two QB system
5:57
Speaker 1: right now, But I just feel like that's just not
6:00
Speaker 1: the hurt Jimmy's feelings. Maybe Jimmy will start this year,
6:03
Speaker 1: but man, I just don't know what the point is
6:06
Speaker 1: where it's like the thing of the capital they traded
6:09
Speaker 1: to get up to get that third pick, and we
6:12
Speaker 1: know we have in Jimmy. We have a guy who
6:13
Speaker 1: is good, but he can't stay on the field and
6:15
Speaker 1: he misses the deep throws. And we saw in preseason
6:17
Speaker 1: Jimmy had a really bad miss on a deep throw.
6:21
Speaker 1: I think the next series, Trey Lance came in and
6:23
Speaker 1: he hit a guy perfectly on a deep throw. And
6:25
Speaker 1: that's what I feel like he's looking for. He's looking
6:27
Speaker 1: for a guy that can control this offense and take
6:30
Speaker 1: big place. So I still like the value on Trey Lance,
6:33
Speaker 1: but I would tell people you've kind of missed the
6:35
Speaker 1: best of the number. Like you just said, it's I'm
6:38
Speaker 1: not sure if it's the biggest liability, but it probably is.
6:40
Speaker 1: Now it's all these different sports books because the fantasy
6:42
Speaker 1: community has become obsessed with Trey Lance. So you have
6:45
Speaker 1: gamblers I love this guy. I know you have the
6:47
Speaker 1: fantasy people. I love this guy. So everyone's just been
6:48
Speaker 1: betting this number down. So for me, I would stay
6:51
Speaker 1: away from this number at this point because you've kind
6:53
Speaker 1: of missed the value. All right. Meanwhile, Mac Jones is
6:56
Speaker 1: now going to be the quarterback in New England. Cam Jones,
6:59
Speaker 1: Cam Newton is cut. Here's what I love. Here's what
7:02
Speaker 1: I love. I'm not gonna name names, but a couple
7:05
Speaker 1: of days ago, uh I got an alert from a
7:10
Speaker 1: relatively large sports media company with a story from their
7:15
Speaker 1: New England based writer saying retired offensive line coach Skarnaki
7:21
Speaker 1: loves what he's seeing out of Cam Newton and Mac Jones.
7:25
Speaker 1: And I saw that and thought, what the funk is this? Like?
7:29
Speaker 1: What what could he possibly be seeing out of Cam
7:31
Speaker 1: Newton who's missing practice and looking like crapping games that
7:35
Speaker 1: would make him think he's in love with Cam Newton,
7:37
Speaker 1: and it turns out nobody's in love with Cam Newton.
7:40
Speaker 1: And so now what I loved was I just saw
7:43
Speaker 1: a tweet on my you know, Chicago Bears centric twitter
7:47
Speaker 1: feed that basically said Bill Belichick has a training camp battle,
7:53
Speaker 1: decides to cut the guy and change up his plans
7:57
Speaker 1: when the guy wasn't playing very well and he sees
7:59
Speaker 1: a guy with potential Matt Niggi adamantly refuses to change
8:04
Speaker 1: his mind, even when Justin Fields is out playing Andy Dalton.
8:09
Speaker 1: And by the way, we'll get to Justin Fields next.
8:11
Speaker 1: First let's talk about Mac Jones in this move. Yeah,
8:15
Speaker 1: big deal for a lot of different reasons. If you
8:18
Speaker 1: were a believer in Damian Harris and you bet him
8:20
Speaker 1: at six or six to one to lead NFL and touchdowns,
8:22
Speaker 1: you have an incredible value. Because they've gotten rid of
8:24
Speaker 1: Sonny Michelle, they've gotten rid of Cam. It seems like
8:27
Speaker 1: Damon Harris is gonna be that running back And that's
8:30
Speaker 1: crazy good value if you've got that number before all
8:32
Speaker 1: these different moves happened. I unfortunately didn't. I think I
8:34
Speaker 1: got him at forty to one to get the touchdowns
8:37
Speaker 1: after they traded Sony. But it's definitely one of those
8:40
Speaker 1: where as someone that has bet against the Patriots and
8:44
Speaker 1: I have them finishing third in this division, I'm a static.
8:47
Speaker 1: I think that everyone feels good. Of course, it's you know,
8:50
Speaker 1: you're excited. It's a rookie quarterback. Mac Jones look good
8:53
Speaker 1: in the preseason. The fan base is really excited. I'm
8:57
Speaker 1: not here to be that guy to be like, Okay,
8:58
Speaker 1: this g is gonna fucking suck. He's gonna suck. Chad.
9:01
Speaker 1: I mean, we've seen it time and time again. He's
9:03
Speaker 1: a fifth rookie drafted in this class. Again, nothing against him.
9:07
Speaker 1: We saw Lamar he was a fifth rookie draft in
9:09
Speaker 1: his class. He had a lot of bumps and bruises
9:12
Speaker 1: his first year. He at ups and downs. He was
9:14
Speaker 1: really turnover prone, wouldn't make smart decisions, little things like that.
9:17
Speaker 1: And when I look at Mac, I think that Bill
9:20
Speaker 1: looked at it and said, okay, he's gonna make the
9:22
Speaker 1: same amount of mistakes as Camwell, again, I didn't even
9:25
Speaker 1: mention it. It's crazy to me. They paid Cam three
9:27
Speaker 1: point five million not to play for them. The literally
9:29
Speaker 1: it's guaranteed money. They cut him with guaranteed money, which
9:33
Speaker 1: I think that speaks volumes to what you're talking about
9:34
Speaker 1: with I don't know if he's doing the vaccine stuff,
9:37
Speaker 1: but I think Belichick was just like, this guy is
9:39
Speaker 1: not committed. I don't even want to deal with this
9:40
Speaker 1: ship this year. Like this isn't a top five quarterback.
9:43
Speaker 1: This guy is the bottom of the barrel. So for me,
9:45
Speaker 1: fading the Patriots, I get why they're excited, but these fans,
9:48
Speaker 1: I don't think they've even had a rookie quarterback start
9:50
Speaker 1: in their lifetime. Like I think Brady started one games
9:52
Speaker 1: rookiear because they had blod So and it's I get it,
9:55
Speaker 1: you're feeling good. It's exciting right now. But for me,
9:57
Speaker 1: this is just a great opportunity that this guy is
9:59
Speaker 1: gonna take a lot of lumps this year and he's
10:01
Speaker 1: in a very tough division that I will be faded
10:03
Speaker 1: Mac Jones. Even week one, I got the Miami plus three,
10:06
Speaker 1: it's down to plus two and a half now it's
10:08
Speaker 1: it's definitely one of these lines. It's gonna be moving.
10:10
Speaker 1: Because it's a rookies first start. You kind of want
10:13
Speaker 1: to go against these guys in their first start, just
10:14
Speaker 1: because again it's so many jitters. Everyone's human here, we
10:17
Speaker 1: all get that. I think their win total was nine
10:19
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I'm still on that under with
10:21
Speaker 1: Max starting. How did you know that Damien Harris to
10:25
Speaker 1: lead the league in touchdowns? Was it sixties six to one?
10:28
Speaker 1: You had that? Like I didn't tell you before the show. Hey,
10:33
Speaker 1: I'm gonna want to talk about this, So why did
10:35
Speaker 1: you have that? Recall, I'm a full on degeneratire. I
10:39
Speaker 1: cannot explain to you how much I gamble, but yeah,
10:42
Speaker 1: I hit it a bunch of times. It's one of
10:44
Speaker 1: those numbers where, again we talk all the time, we're
10:47
Speaker 1: just playing. This is a value based job. That's all
10:49
Speaker 1: we're doing is playing value based. Do I think Damian
10:51
Speaker 1: Harris is actually gonna lead the league in touchdowns? No,
10:54
Speaker 1: but I see there's a void now, and there's a
10:55
Speaker 1: huge opening that Cam Newton had I think eight red
10:58
Speaker 1: zone touchdowns rushing last year. If you shift out the
11:01
Speaker 1: Damien Harris and he had ten last year, that's eighteen
11:03
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. Again, I will lead the league. So it's
11:06
Speaker 1: just one of those simple things where I'm just you know,
11:07
Speaker 1: playing the long shot odds. Is it still six six
11:09
Speaker 1: to one on Fandal, No, No, you had it. You
11:11
Speaker 1: said it was at forty to one. Now yeah, I
11:13
Speaker 1: dropped down. Yeah. So, but my point is you knew
11:17
Speaker 1: that at one point it was at sixty to one,
11:19
Speaker 1: which means you must have looked at it at one
11:21
Speaker 1: point and at the time you probably thought, Okay, Cam's
11:24
Speaker 1: gonna be there, and maybe you know you you got
11:26
Speaker 1: it as soon as it dropped. But it was actually
11:29
Speaker 1: because the Dobbins. Dobbins got hurt. Um and I had
11:31
Speaker 1: a little, a little decent amount of money invested in Dobbins.
11:34
Speaker 1: I had high hopes for him. Um. I also saw
11:37
Speaker 1: some ridiculous I don't know if it was a Tweeter
11:39
Speaker 1: podcast I might have heard, but it was someone saying
11:41
Speaker 1: they don't think the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender
11:43
Speaker 1: anymore because they lost Dobbins. What are we doing here, Chad?
11:47
Speaker 1: It's one. I mean, I'm trying to I was trying
11:49
Speaker 1: to rack my brain of what top five running back
11:51
Speaker 1: has won a Super Bowl in the last twenty years.
11:54
Speaker 1: Marshawn Lynch one with the Seahawks. They won that game
11:57
Speaker 1: like forty three to seven, it was their defense. It
11:59
Speaker 1: wasn't because of Marshawn And so again I think people
12:01
Speaker 1: overrate the value of the position and running back. I
12:04
Speaker 1: love Davis. I thought it unreal talent that that should
12:07
Speaker 1: have persuade you to stay away from the Ravens. That's
12:09
Speaker 1: just another guy's gonna step in, like Gus Edwards and
12:11
Speaker 1: they're gonna be all right. So it's one of those
12:13
Speaker 1: don't overrate the running back people. Well, it's amazing to
12:15
Speaker 1: me that you were thinking about Damian Harrison. It also
12:18
Speaker 1: goes to to show sort of how you as a
12:21
Speaker 1: professional better separate and distinguish yourself from everybody else because
12:28
Speaker 1: and this is how you win. This is how you
12:30
Speaker 1: get the edge. This is why it's so hard for
12:33
Speaker 1: people to get the edge to win if it's not
12:36
Speaker 1: what they do every day. Like this is why you
12:39
Speaker 1: need help, because you get up in the morning and
12:42
Speaker 1: you're thinking, four or five levels deep, where is the
12:45
Speaker 1: value going to be? How is this team going to
12:47
Speaker 1: use this player? What is going to be the impact
12:49
Speaker 1: of this player being on this team? Now? All those things,
12:53
Speaker 1: and so you're looking at every single market that's available
12:55
Speaker 1: and thinking where is the value I am not getting
12:58
Speaker 1: up every day and doing that. I'm getting up every
13:00
Speaker 1: day and thinking our team is growing. How am I
13:03
Speaker 1: going to manage this team and get us to our
13:05
Speaker 1: goals for the year. Yeah, I can't win against someone
13:08
Speaker 1: like you. And if you like doing this stuff, the
13:09
Speaker 1: Action app, it gives you the best lines. You don't
13:12
Speaker 1: need to go through all these different sports books. You
13:13
Speaker 1: literally can open up the app. I'll tell you what
13:15
Speaker 1: book has the best line for that number. So again,
13:18
Speaker 1: I know I'm I'm promoting our app all the time,
13:19
Speaker 1: but I love it. That's saving me half an hour
13:22
Speaker 1: of work hopping on there. I don't need to go
13:23
Speaker 1: through all nineteen sports books in New Jersey. I can
13:26
Speaker 1: hop onto the Action app. I can find the best
13:28
Speaker 1: number for the best value. So again, shot, love it, dude.
13:32
Speaker 1: I love the way you pimp. You are fucking pro. Uh.
13:35
Speaker 1: The last one we got to talk about. I do
13:37
Speaker 1: want to say Justin Fields washing the other night against
13:40
Speaker 1: the Titans, first offensive player to score a touchdown against
13:43
Speaker 1: the Titans in the preseason. Clearly that means everything. Um,
13:47
Speaker 1: but any tight end man, well, listen, I thought like
13:51
Speaker 1: he made some throws, really good throws and tough spots
13:53
Speaker 1: and you do that touchdown pass on the sideline on
13:56
Speaker 1: the right side of the end zone into a window.
14:00
Speaker 1: That's not a pass you make unless you are comfortable
14:03
Speaker 1: putting yourself out there at the NFL level as a quarterback.
14:07
Speaker 1: That was not a Okay, this guy is wide open.
14:10
Speaker 1: And he did this a couple of times in the game.
14:11
Speaker 1: Either he threw a guy open or he threw it
14:13
Speaker 1: to his spot and was like, I know, my arm
14:16
Speaker 1: is strong enough to get it there. It's either going
14:17
Speaker 1: to be a catch, or it's gonna be like a
14:19
Speaker 1: past defense, or it's gonna be out of bounce like
14:22
Speaker 1: I got. I got this and that was pretty outstanding. Yeah,
14:26
Speaker 1: everything he showed us is why I had him right
14:27
Speaker 1: at the number two quarterback coming out of the draft.
14:29
Speaker 1: He is incredible on his move, he's smart, and when
14:33
Speaker 1: he gets outside the pocket, like we saw that, he
14:35
Speaker 1: put that ball where only his receiver could catch and
14:37
Speaker 1: if he doesn't catch, it's just gonna go out of
14:39
Speaker 1: bounce and that like that for a rookie quarterback. Oh man,
14:42
Speaker 1: I mean again, the Bears have to be feeling so good.
14:44
Speaker 1: I get why you're upset with the whole naggy thing. Um,
14:47
Speaker 1: Like we had we I heard. I think Darren's Feller
14:50
Speaker 1: maybe talked about our show, maybe tweeted about it. But
14:52
Speaker 1: if you lose the players in the locker room because
14:55
Speaker 1: you're trying to say, okay, Any Dalton's the starter, and
14:57
Speaker 1: everyone in the locker room believes he's not that that
15:00
Speaker 1: is a little terrifying as a guy that's betting on
15:02
Speaker 1: the Bears this upcoming season, because he could lose this
15:05
Speaker 1: locker room pretty quick if he lets Any don't keep
15:08
Speaker 1: going out there. But again, I'm cool with him, and
15:11
Speaker 1: he don't start the first game. It's a Sunday night
15:13
Speaker 1: primetime game against arguably one of the best defenses of football.
15:17
Speaker 1: I don't get why he's doing it. Maybe he has
15:19
Speaker 1: just an agreement with Andy Dalton, that's why he signed.
15:21
Speaker 1: There was like, hey, no matter what, you're playing the
15:23
Speaker 1: first game, we all have eyes. We all know Naggies
15:26
Speaker 1: watched the games too. Andy Dalton has not done a
15:28
Speaker 1: single thing to earn that starting job. If anything, well,
15:32
Speaker 1: you just said, like Bill Belchick cutting Cam Newton. I
15:35
Speaker 1: don't get why Naggi hasn't cut him. It's very interesting
15:37
Speaker 1: everything going on with that. So for me, it's a
15:40
Speaker 1: little worriam. It's worrying me. But also we talked about
15:43
Speaker 1: as a gambler chat, this is a great time to
15:44
Speaker 1: get value on Justin Fields. If you wanted him to
15:46
Speaker 1: bet Rookie of the Year, you wait after week one.
15:50
Speaker 1: His odds will go up because all the other guys played,
15:52
Speaker 1: he didn't play, and you're gonn gonna be able to
15:53
Speaker 1: get good value on Justin Field. So if you like
15:55
Speaker 1: him to win Rookie of the Year, just wait after
15:57
Speaker 1: a week one. As I've said of four, Justin Fields
16:02
Speaker 1: will be the most consequential draft pick for the Chicago
16:06
Speaker 1: Bears in my fifty years of life, including six Hall
16:09
Speaker 1: of Famers, because it means we will have a bubble
16:14
Speaker 1: head that is not the quarterback who was great for
16:18
Speaker 1: the Bears in the nineteen forties named Sid Lackman. Literally,
16:21
Speaker 1: the guys wearing number A quarterbacks number two. He's not
16:25
Speaker 1: wearing a helmet, not because they want to have the
16:27
Speaker 1: bubble head show his face, because they just didn't wear helmets.
16:30
Speaker 1: Then that's why that's the bubble head that I'm showing
16:35
Speaker 1: the world right now. If you're listening to this only
16:37
Speaker 1: through your ears, all right, NFC West, right, off the top.
16:44
Speaker 1: You and I are diametrically opposed at the top of
16:46
Speaker 1: this division. I have said from the beginning, this is
16:51
Speaker 1: the definitive lean on coaches. Do you believe in Kyle Shanahan?
16:59
Speaker 1: Do you believe in Sewan Evey. I think what Shanahan
17:02
Speaker 1: did last year with the roster he had, having them
17:04
Speaker 1: be as competitive as they were every week, having to
17:07
Speaker 1: remake the team, the strategy, that dynamic, I think he
17:11
Speaker 1: fucking loved it. I think he, like most coaches would crumble,
17:15
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? He was like, I get to
17:17
Speaker 1: reinvent this every week, and I'm going to prove to
17:19
Speaker 1: everybody how good I am. Getting a full team back,
17:23
Speaker 1: being healthy, having whatever kind of quarterback monster he's going
17:27
Speaker 1: to create, doesn't matter. I'm on this team. Fourteen to
17:31
Speaker 1: one to win the Super Bowl, six to one to
17:33
Speaker 1: win the conference, plus one eighty to win the division
17:36
Speaker 1: over ten and a half. Uh, You're not against the Niners,
17:40
Speaker 1: but the wise guy community has been whispering in your
17:42
Speaker 1: ear about the Los Angeles Rams. Yeah, and it's not
17:46
Speaker 1: even that I'm against it, it's more that they're at
17:48
Speaker 1: this point, they're a little overvalued. The public has bet
17:51
Speaker 1: them up at this point, they bet their shuper ball
17:53
Speaker 1: odds down. I'm again, I told you the reason I
17:56
Speaker 1: like Detroit Week one is I hate that they have
17:58
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks, Like I hate a quarterback controversy right now,
18:01
Speaker 1: because that just can't be good. We've never seen it work.
18:04
Speaker 1: We've never seen two quarterbacks system work in the NFL.
18:07
Speaker 1: And if I'm just looking at this, and I'm trying
18:10
Speaker 1: to be non biased, this team had six wins I believe,
18:12
Speaker 1: last year, and now they've been they're saying they're gonna
18:15
Speaker 1: have over ten and a half. And I get it.
18:17
Speaker 1: They lost Jimmy g they had a bunch of injuries
18:18
Speaker 1: last year. They're assuming they're gonna be more healthy this year.
18:21
Speaker 1: But at the same time, they had a lot of
18:23
Speaker 1: games they won last year. They just kind of, you know,
18:25
Speaker 1: they were playing the Cowboys, they played a lot of
18:27
Speaker 1: They played the nfc s last year. They I mean,
18:29
Speaker 1: you probably remember that game. The Eagles were an eight
18:31
Speaker 1: point underdog can Nick Mullins and they beat him on
18:33
Speaker 1: Monday Night, I believe. So. I think the public naturally
18:37
Speaker 1: likes to hype up the forty nine because they just
18:39
Speaker 1: see them as one of these teams and that to
18:42
Speaker 1: my job to take a step back and go, okay,
18:44
Speaker 1: I have more confidence in Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson
18:47
Speaker 1: running this thing back. I think they fell apart last year,
18:49
Speaker 1: and I have more confidence than you know. Again, I
18:51
Speaker 1: know they won the division last year, but it was
18:53
Speaker 1: kind of flukey. The Rams had a bunch of injuries.
18:55
Speaker 1: We already talked about four Niniers have a bunch of injuries,
18:57
Speaker 1: and Arizona just sucks with Kingberry. So for me, when
19:00
Speaker 1: I look at this with the forty niners, you have
19:02
Speaker 1: to ask yourself, is that really worth it fourteen to
19:04
Speaker 1: one to be better than the win the Super Bowl?
19:05
Speaker 1: When you just talked about they're in the hardest division
19:07
Speaker 1: of football, It's it's rare we see the team the
19:10
Speaker 1: hardest division of football win the Super Bowl because usually
19:12
Speaker 1: they've just been the ship out of each other the
19:14
Speaker 1: entire season. They kind of get burned out by the playoffs.
19:16
Speaker 1: So when I'm looking at this division and I'm just
19:18
Speaker 1: going pure value based, that's why I like the Rams.
19:21
Speaker 1: I think that most people are talking about the professionals,
19:23
Speaker 1: it's you're getting a good number. You're getting a team
19:25
Speaker 1: that you know, again, we can talk about all we want.
19:29
Speaker 1: We have no idea what Stafford. We do have a
19:30
Speaker 1: knock on him just because he played in Detroit for
19:32
Speaker 1: so long and all we've seen him do is lose again.
19:34
Speaker 1: We don't know if that's coaching, if that's on Matt Stafford.
19:37
Speaker 1: But for me, at that price and that value, I'm
19:40
Speaker 1: willing to gamble on it. I like the Rams, I
19:42
Speaker 1: like the Seahawks, but I bet both of them. I'm
19:44
Speaker 1: still getting a good plus money on my number betting
19:46
Speaker 1: than the win that division. So I'm just staying away
19:49
Speaker 1: from the forty nine. They seem like they're a year away.
19:50
Speaker 1: They need to figure out this QB situation and then
19:53
Speaker 1: next year they'll be their year. One thing I want
19:55
Speaker 1: to point out this was interesting to me. You mentioned
19:58
Speaker 1: Jimmy G. The Niners are two years removed from the
20:03
Speaker 1: super Bowl. That's how quickly things change in the NFL.
20:06
Speaker 1: Jimmy G is two years removed from the super Bowl.
20:10
Speaker 1: He goes through last year, plays great, doesn't get injured.
20:14
Speaker 1: We're not even having this conversation about Tree Lance, right,
20:16
Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing? And nine Kyle Shanahan with Jimmy G's
20:21
Speaker 1: it's unbelievable sort of how fickle this league is and
20:25
Speaker 1: how challenging it is to stay so healthy for so
20:28
Speaker 1: long and to be on top. So I mentioned that
20:31
Speaker 1: my kid and I were watching that NFL Top one
20:34
Speaker 1: hundred show, right and it was on on NFL Network,
20:38
Speaker 1: and they pointed out that, uh, this year, Travis Kelsey
20:43
Speaker 1: was five and Patrick Mahomes was one, and it's one
20:46
Speaker 1: of the fourth or fifth times in the ten years
20:48
Speaker 1: they've been doing the show or whatever, um that uh
20:53
Speaker 1: teammates were in the top five, And two of the
20:56
Speaker 1: other times were Antonio Brown and Levyan Bell, Todd Gurley
21:01
Speaker 1: and Aaron Donald MHM. Within two years of those couples
21:07
Speaker 1: being in the top five of Top one, they were
21:12
Speaker 1: all separated. Belle and Brown weren't even on the Steelers anymore.
21:16
Speaker 1: Within two years of being in the top five, Todd
21:19
Speaker 1: Gurley and Aaron Donald. Gurley was like, but honestly, before
21:23
Speaker 1: the season in which he was a top five player ended,
21:26
Speaker 1: he was no longer a top five player because by
21:28
Speaker 1: the playoffs of that year, he was out. He couldn't
21:31
Speaker 1: he couldn't move anymore. I mean, that's what's so amazing
21:34
Speaker 1: about this league. Like not just year to year, month
21:38
Speaker 1: to month, your fortune can change. And I'm that's what
21:41
Speaker 1: I'm trying to beat into people. It's like, you're feeling
21:43
Speaker 1: really good about your quarterback right now. Okay, the Eagles
21:46
Speaker 1: went to Super Bowl with Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz is
21:48
Speaker 1: on a different team. Jared Golf went the Super Bowl
21:50
Speaker 1: with the Rams. Jared Golf's on a different team. Jimmy
21:52
Speaker 1: g went to Super Bowl. Like you said two years ago,
21:54
Speaker 1: he's about to be a backup. It's one of these
21:56
Speaker 1: things where even when you think you have a quarterback,
21:59
Speaker 1: you don't. It's like, as a fan of the sport,
22:01
Speaker 1: it's brutal because it's just like I hate being that
22:04
Speaker 1: Debbie downer, but that's my job. It's just one of
22:07
Speaker 1: these things where I just know a lot of these
22:08
Speaker 1: guys are gonna fail, and even when they succeed, like
22:11
Speaker 1: I'll never forget. I was really down on Mark Sanchez.
22:14
Speaker 1: I just did not think he was gonna be a
22:15
Speaker 1: good NFL pro. I look at Jackass for about three
22:18
Speaker 1: years chat this guy literally kept going to the a
22:20
Speaker 1: f C title game. I was like, okay, I misread
22:22
Speaker 1: that one. And then two years he was out of
22:24
Speaker 1: the elite. So it's one of these things where it's
22:26
Speaker 1: like you just gotta trust your guns and trust for
22:28
Speaker 1: you're watching on film, because again I love Patrick Mahomes.
22:33
Speaker 1: With Patrick Homes to be the same quarterback if you
22:34
Speaker 1: didn't have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey, Andy Reid, no, okay,
22:38
Speaker 1: you fell into literally the perfect situation with a perfect
22:40
Speaker 1: coach with the perfect player. So it's just one of
22:42
Speaker 1: those where a lot more goes into this and then
22:45
Speaker 1: just straight having talent. So that's what I'm trying to
22:46
Speaker 1: keep people informed on where it's like I got nothing
22:49
Speaker 1: against Mac Jones. I think Mac Jones could be a
22:51
Speaker 1: great quarterback, but this year, I know Mac Jones is
22:53
Speaker 1: gonna suck. And that's just the way it is NFL.
22:55
Speaker 1: It's that hard to be good in this league. So
22:57
Speaker 1: for me, that's what I'm trying to get into people
22:59
Speaker 1: is like you can be happy and excited, you need
23:01
Speaker 1: to kind of take your bias out of what you're
23:03
Speaker 1: doing here, because again, it's the hardest league to win in.
23:06
Speaker 1: We've just seen the time and time again, the turnover rate, everything.
23:10
Speaker 1: Every team is always looking for that next edge. So
23:12
Speaker 1: for me, I know we're gonna talk at NAGY about
23:15
Speaker 1: this division all year. I cannot tell people to take
23:18
Speaker 1: the Seahawks at that value. I think they're plus two
23:20
Speaker 1: seventy five. They want this division. Chat. They had no
23:23
Speaker 1: fans last year, and I think their only loss might
23:25
Speaker 1: have been to the Giants or something weird like that
23:27
Speaker 1: at home, Like they literally were incredible at home even
23:29
Speaker 1: with no fans. It can only be better this year.
23:31
Speaker 1: They're gonna have fans. They're They're just one of these
23:33
Speaker 1: teams where I think the seats are being slept on
23:35
Speaker 1: because they don't have any new toys, don't have the
23:38
Speaker 1: new quarterback, they don't have the forty nine. Like the
23:40
Speaker 1: Forts are just getting hyped up so hard right now.
23:42
Speaker 1: It kind of feels like the Seahawks are that team
23:43
Speaker 1: that's just being left for done. I do want to
23:46
Speaker 1: get to the Seahawks because, um but but one of
23:49
Speaker 1: the things I want to remind people I sat off
23:51
Speaker 1: the top. We're gonna talk about the rookie quarterbacks. We
23:54
Speaker 1: talked about Lance, we talked about Mac Jones and Cam
23:56
Speaker 1: Newton getting cut in justin fields. I forgot to get
23:59
Speaker 1: to the Saints having to leave New Orleans because of
24:03
Speaker 1: Hurricane Ida for the first month of the year. They
24:07
Speaker 1: had the Packers on September twelve at the Superdome. Give
24:12
Speaker 1: me your take on what happens with that game. I mean,
24:14
Speaker 1: we know what happens. They're gonna play somewhere else, but
24:17
Speaker 1: what happens with the Saints? How do you evaluate this?
24:20
Speaker 1: As a fan and as a better I could not
24:22
Speaker 1: wait the bet on the Saints for this game. I
24:24
Speaker 1: think they had gotten up to plus four at this
24:25
Speaker 1: point before they had moved locations. This was the classic.
24:30
Speaker 1: You know, everyone's gonna be really down on the Saints
24:32
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be them week one at home in
24:34
Speaker 1: the Superdome. Those fans are gonna be going wild. That
24:37
Speaker 1: was just gonna be like a really fun bet to
24:38
Speaker 1: make where I think I told you I got the
24:41
Speaker 1: Green Bay plus three and Adam and a teaser or
24:43
Speaker 1: those bets got avoided now just because they change location.
24:46
Speaker 1: The Saints are gonna be on the move. They're gonna
24:49
Speaker 1: be you know, they're not gonna seep in their own bed.
24:50
Speaker 1: They're gonna bet a hotel. It's pretty much a road
24:52
Speaker 1: game for them, and the Green Bay just across the
24:55
Speaker 1: board talent wise is superior in every pretty much position.
24:58
Speaker 1: So for me, I being chalky week one, but that's
25:01
Speaker 1: that's not think one of the chalk lines I'll be on.
25:03
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on Green Bay at minus four week one,
25:05
Speaker 1: just because it just feels there's too much going against
25:07
Speaker 1: the Saints right now to really back them. How do
25:11
Speaker 1: you think it impacts betting on the Saints for the
25:14
Speaker 1: rest of the month, If I'm not incorrect, I think
25:18
Speaker 1: that's their only home game the first month of the year.
25:23
Speaker 1: That's pretty big. That's that's really good for them. It's
25:25
Speaker 1: so hard to say. It's like, do you believe in
25:27
Speaker 1: Winston or you don't. I clearly don't believe in Winston
25:29
Speaker 1: for the simple fact he's the only quarterback in NFL
25:31
Speaker 1: history could have a thirty thirty season. People believe Sean
25:34
Speaker 1: Payne can coach that out of him, and I know
25:36
Speaker 1: he's got glasses now where he got his eyes fixed.
25:39
Speaker 1: I can't do it when it Winston is one of
25:41
Speaker 1: these guys where I just cannot do it, where I've
25:43
Speaker 1: seen him have a good game or two and then
25:44
Speaker 1: you'll just have three really bad games in a row.
25:46
Speaker 1: So I think people that if you're high on the Saints.
25:51
Speaker 1: This kind of has to kill that whole vibe where
25:52
Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, this team is being displaced. They you know,
25:57
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say they're they're they just don't have
26:01
Speaker 1: that same feeling that we had where Katrina happened. And
26:04
Speaker 1: you remember that first Monday Night game I think it
26:06
Speaker 1: was the following year they had that that block punt
26:09
Speaker 1: and there was everything just set the tone for that season.
26:11
Speaker 1: They end up winning the Super Bowl. No one has
26:13
Speaker 1: that vibe with the Saints team. Everyone just sees the
26:15
Speaker 1: Saints team is kind of a rebuild mode. So for me,
26:17
Speaker 1: it's just one of the things where it's another negative
26:19
Speaker 1: to add to a list for the Saints team. I'm
26:21
Speaker 1: just very down on them at this point. The Saints
26:23
Speaker 1: are on the road. After that that Green Bay game,
26:25
Speaker 1: they are on the road for the next two weeks.
26:27
Speaker 1: In September. UH, they're at New England UH for Week three,
26:33
Speaker 1: and then I think the week before that it might
26:35
Speaker 1: be at where is it at Carolina, right, and then
26:39
Speaker 1: they're back home against the Giants in a week four.
26:41
Speaker 1: So it might not be that big of an impact
26:43
Speaker 1: on the line. It's it's just that first game that
26:45
Speaker 1: you gotta think about. And now we're from our sponsor.
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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. Uh,
28:19
Speaker 1: you were talking about Seattle. Apologize for the for the
28:21
Speaker 1: break in the flow there because you had mentioned San
28:25
Speaker 1: Francisco's at fourteen to one. L A is at fifteen
28:27
Speaker 1: to one. You had said you think this is a
28:30
Speaker 1: bounce back a year for Seattle, that a lot of
28:33
Speaker 1: things went wrong last year. There was a lot of
28:34
Speaker 1: turmoil on this team, a lot of controversy on this team.
28:38
Speaker 1: Let Russ cook. Don't let Russ cook. The defense was terrible, terrible,
28:41
Speaker 1: The defense got better. Um, they're you know, they're back together,
28:47
Speaker 1: Seattle at a twenty one with a team in San
28:49
Speaker 1: Francisco that might have something that they have to figure
28:52
Speaker 1: out a quarterback, a team in l A that has,
28:54
Speaker 1: as I like to say, Matthew Stafford. So Seattle or
28:59
Speaker 1: twenty one plus two seventy five ten to one in
29:01
Speaker 1: the conference break it down from me, I know you
29:05
Speaker 1: did the division break down the rest of it. Yeah,
29:08
Speaker 1: I like the twenty on one price. I think they're
29:09
Speaker 1: at one point twenty two or twenty five the one,
29:11
Speaker 1: which is a really good price too. It's it's one
29:14
Speaker 1: of these things where I try to fade people what
29:17
Speaker 1: they last saw. So we saw the Seahawks look absolutely
29:19
Speaker 1: terrible against the Rams in the playoffs last year at home.
29:22
Speaker 1: I mean that was embarrassing. It lost to a backup
29:25
Speaker 1: quarterback and one handed Jared Golf at home. If they
29:28
Speaker 1: played that game a hundred times, I can't see it
29:29
Speaker 1: keep going the way it did. So they got really
29:32
Speaker 1: offensive coordinated. They brought in a new OC. Basically their
29:34
Speaker 1: offense was they would run it or throw a deep
29:37
Speaker 1: ball the DK metcalf for Tyler Lockett. It was just
29:39
Speaker 1: a really boring and simple offense that even Russell Wilson
29:43
Speaker 1: was complaining about it. He did not like the style
29:45
Speaker 1: they had switched to. So for me, I think that
29:48
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson has he's at that age. I don't know
29:52
Speaker 1: if he's thirty three or thirty four, but he's at
29:54
Speaker 1: like the perfect age where it's like, Okay, this guy
29:57
Speaker 1: has been in the league now for ten years. He
29:59
Speaker 1: was a fifth year senior. I think he played at
30:01
Speaker 1: Wisconsin for his fifth year. He he is literally in
30:05
Speaker 1: the prime right now. Okay, He's not gonna get that
30:08
Speaker 1: much better in the future because we know that rust
30:10
Speaker 1: depends on his legs to get out of the pocket
30:12
Speaker 1: and move around and make big plays. So for me,
30:14
Speaker 1: this kind of feels like it. This feels like the
30:16
Speaker 1: last really great run with them, and they got Adams back.
30:19
Speaker 1: I know that. I don't know if they read they
30:21
Speaker 1: paid that offensive linement, but they have to because they're
30:24
Speaker 1: one of the worst parts of this team is their
30:26
Speaker 1: O line and their cornerbacks. So those are two major
30:29
Speaker 1: red flags for me. But again, that offense. I mean
30:33
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson I talked. I think it was thirty to
30:37
Speaker 1: one on Vanduel for him to lead the league in passing.
30:40
Speaker 1: It's just one of these teams where it's like, man,
30:42
Speaker 1: people are just so down on Russ just because he
30:44
Speaker 1: had one bad playoff game where the don't forget that.
30:46
Speaker 1: I think they were thirteen and three last year. At
30:48
Speaker 1: twelve and four, it's just a team that didn't lose anything.
30:50
Speaker 1: If anything, they've gotten better switching offensive coordinare. So I
30:54
Speaker 1: just love the value that everyone's down on the Seahawks
30:56
Speaker 1: and I can get them at a good discount of price.
30:58
Speaker 1: Do you still like Russell Uin thirty to one at
31:02
Speaker 1: to lead the league in passing? I still like it,
31:05
Speaker 1: but it's interesting how much his numbers come down. So
31:07
Speaker 1: I made I have a couple of weird bets I
31:09
Speaker 1: think we did. We talked about Ryan Tanner, I mean
31:11
Speaker 1: Ryan Matt Ryan right, And I actually did a pretty
31:15
Speaker 1: big bet on Derek car which is kind of out
31:17
Speaker 1: there um to be on. Look, I'm gonna do a
31:19
Speaker 1: futures article with Tommy. We're gonna talk about like some
31:21
Speaker 1: future bets I did. Tommy are one of our news editors. Yeah, yeah,
31:26
Speaker 1: we were gonna do it today. But all this ship
31:27
Speaker 1: went down with Mac, I was just like, dude, don't
31:29
Speaker 1: worry about me, Like I know, I know, he's got
31:31
Speaker 1: a lot of ship going on. So it's one of
31:34
Speaker 1: these things where I'm I'm looking for guys that have
31:36
Speaker 1: great arm talent with bad defenses, and I see that
31:39
Speaker 1: the Seahawks and Seahawks. I know Adams is unbelievable. But again,
31:42
Speaker 1: their cornerbacks are terrible at the Seahawks. Like people forget
31:45
Speaker 1: that game with the Cowboys last year. I mean, Dak
31:48
Speaker 1: Press got through for about five hundred yards and the
31:50
Speaker 1: next week Cam Newton went up there and through for
31:51
Speaker 1: five hundred yards. So it's one of these things where, man,
31:54
Speaker 1: I don't know if they made enough improvements on that defense,
31:56
Speaker 1: have to back Russ where everyone's down and Russ and
31:59
Speaker 1: everyone's down on us. This feels like the kind of
32:01
Speaker 1: year where he really takes to another level. So again, people,
32:05
Speaker 1: you can do you can do your own research on it.
32:06
Speaker 1: But I look at this team and I think to myself, Okay,
32:09
Speaker 1: they probably should be plus one fifty on this division,
32:11
Speaker 1: not plus two seventies. So I'm getting a crazy amount
32:13
Speaker 1: of value on this team. What do you think of
32:16
Speaker 1: their win total at ten right now? I love it.
32:19
Speaker 1: It's a little scary because it feels like a trap
32:20
Speaker 1: where it's like, I think they've only gone below that
32:23
Speaker 1: once in Russell's entire career, So it's definitely an interesting
32:26
Speaker 1: line they're laying up there. But at worst I see
32:28
Speaker 1: it being a push. I had a great at ten
32:30
Speaker 1: point three, so for me, that's that's a really fair number.
32:33
Speaker 1: They're hanging there at ten. You're making me think, you're
32:36
Speaker 1: making me think hard about plus two seventy and over ten,
32:40
Speaker 1: I'm gonna probably have to I'll probably have to make
32:44
Speaker 1: an investment, as they like to say. Yeah, it feels
32:46
Speaker 1: like Pittsburgh lass year, where Pittsburgh everyone's just down on them, like, oh,
32:49
Speaker 1: Ben's old. They're kind of the old toy, Let's bet
32:52
Speaker 1: the Ravens, let's bet the Browns, and new shot the
32:54
Speaker 1: new fund kind of like shiny objects where I get
32:57
Speaker 1: the same five year, everyone's kind of left the Seahawks
32:59
Speaker 1: left for dead, where it's like this team one and
33:01
Speaker 1: dominated this division last year. I don't know why people
33:03
Speaker 1: are so down on them. Um. I feel like, also,
33:10
Speaker 1: oh Russell Wilson, by the way, it's thirty two years old. Yeah,
33:14
Speaker 1: that sounds right, the thirty three in November. Uh. You
33:18
Speaker 1: mentioned Detroit, Uh in week one. We've also talked about
33:23
Speaker 1: the Texans in week one. I feel like I'm looking
33:26
Speaker 1: at Week one right now, and we're gonna have like
33:30
Speaker 1: the all gross starting five. If I had to predict,
33:35
Speaker 1: if I had to predict where we're gonna land in
33:37
Speaker 1: Week one. Right now, I see uh, Sandford, I see
33:40
Speaker 1: Detroit plus seven and a half. Totally, totally bet than that.
33:44
Speaker 1: I think we'll bet Kansas City minus six and a
33:46
Speaker 1: half against against Cleveland. No, we won't. We won't bet that.
33:50
Speaker 1: It's an interesting one where it's they have a whole
33:52
Speaker 1: new offensive line. But of course the Browns historically are
33:54
Speaker 1: awful on the first day of the year, so it's
33:57
Speaker 1: definitely an interesting line. I see uh, and then I've
34:02
Speaker 1: got hold on where was it? I know we have
34:06
Speaker 1: Houston somewhere. Where the hell is Houston. I probably won't
34:10
Speaker 1: make you do Houston because I'm already making you to Detroit,
34:12
Speaker 1: but you're you're gonna see Chad this. I can't remember
34:15
Speaker 1: a time in my life I've had more home dogs
34:17
Speaker 1: week one of the opening to start the year. I
34:20
Speaker 1: think it's simply because people forget that fans make that
34:23
Speaker 1: big of a difference in home openers. So, by the way,
34:26
Speaker 1: I'm not afraid to make disgusting decisions. I do it
34:29
Speaker 1: all the time. I fucking hired Matt Mitchell. I'm not
34:32
Speaker 1: afraid of disgusting decisions. Chad Millman is proud of himself,
34:38
Speaker 1: so if we're gonna, like I'm saying, if if we're
34:41
Speaker 1: locking in two weeks out, if we're locking in the
34:45
Speaker 1: two teams that we think will be the worst in
34:47
Speaker 1: the NFL, I'm okay with that. I'm totally comfortable with that.
34:50
Speaker 1: In fact, might end up doing it. But like again,
34:52
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make I'm I'm not that I'm nervous, but
34:55
Speaker 1: it's one of these things where it's the first week
34:57
Speaker 1: of the year and it's like, you know, if this
34:59
Speaker 1: was week sick, we'd be all in on the Giants.
35:01
Speaker 1: The Giants, I think are two and a half point
35:02
Speaker 1: underdogs at home. Again, it's just there's all these different
35:05
Speaker 1: teams at home underdogs where it's like, man, the public
35:08
Speaker 1: is either gonna get slaughtered week one or they're gonna
35:10
Speaker 1: have a field day, because it's just like, it's insane
35:13
Speaker 1: how much the public is betting on these road favorites.
35:16
Speaker 1: I've never seen it before in my life of betting NFL.
35:18
Speaker 1: Where it's Week one, I'm not even drinking. I think
35:21
Speaker 1: there's six home dogs in Week one, which is like,
35:24
Speaker 1: again to me, that's historic, that's very rare you see
35:27
Speaker 1: that many home dogs. So we're gonna have a great
35:29
Speaker 1: week one chat, I can promise you that, well, listen,
35:32
Speaker 1: all I'm saying right now is I might want to
35:34
Speaker 1: go into a money line parlay on the Texans and Alliance.
35:38
Speaker 1: Oh that We're definitely gonna have a couple of those going. Well,
35:41
Speaker 1: We'll have a round robin parlay on the Texans, the Giants,
35:46
Speaker 1: you name it, the Dolphins, whoever. It's gonna be like
35:50
Speaker 1: we're doing it all right the last And Matt Mitchell
35:53
Speaker 1: is not engaging right now. I hope he's listening. But
35:58
Speaker 1: nobody has done better takedowns of Cliff Kingsbury then Matt Mitchell.
36:06
Speaker 1: And this is a team that is currently forty eight
36:09
Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl, to one to
36:11
Speaker 1: win the conference, six and a half to want to
36:13
Speaker 1: win the Division. Eight and a half uh games is
36:17
Speaker 1: their season win total. What do we do with this team? Aid?
36:24
Speaker 1: We just gotta fade him. I love Cayler Murray. I
36:27
Speaker 1: think he's an incredible player, but I hate all the
36:30
Speaker 1: moves they made. I didn't like the J. J. Watt signing.
36:32
Speaker 1: I feel like he's passed his prime. I didn't like
36:35
Speaker 1: a J. Green signing. That's another guy that's way past
36:37
Speaker 1: his prime, and I look at this team where again
36:42
Speaker 1: it's it's not that I'm so down on Kingsbury, it's
36:45
Speaker 1: just the simple fact that we have the history, we
36:47
Speaker 1: have the numbers that this guy falls apart every year
36:49
Speaker 1: in the second half of the season. So like last year,
36:53
Speaker 1: they can start out great. I remember last year they
36:54
Speaker 1: Week one, they beat um the San Francisco forty Niners,
36:58
Speaker 1: and that was what Jimmy g Sir one was going
37:00
Speaker 1: crazy like, oh my god, this Cardinals team is gonna
37:03
Speaker 1: be the next real deal. And they had a bunch
37:04
Speaker 1: of good wins, like they had that huge Hell Mary
37:07
Speaker 1: against the Bills. But we saw it happen that that
37:10
Speaker 1: that these teams kind of figured them out and they
37:12
Speaker 1: kind of fell apart there at the end of the year.
37:14
Speaker 1: So again, it's nothing against Kyler Murray. It's a it's
37:17
Speaker 1: a bet against Kingsbury where I think his offense has
37:19
Speaker 1: been figured out by all these dcs and I just
37:22
Speaker 1: do not cause I cannot see them getting over eight
37:24
Speaker 1: and a half wins in this division. This is uh
37:27
Speaker 1: one of the bigger under beets I've made this season. Yeah,
37:30
Speaker 1: that's a it's a he is so bad and feels
37:35
Speaker 1: like so out of his depth. As soon as you
37:37
Speaker 1: get four or five games in, Matt Mitchell, are you listening?
37:41
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Do you want to weigh in here? Because
37:43
Speaker 1: you have more Cliff Kingsbury hate than as possible, and
37:47
Speaker 1: you've got great stats from his history with Patrick mahomes Hey,
37:51
Speaker 1: Thanks d. Before I begin my rent on Cliff, I'm
37:54
Speaker 1: gonna bring in the Little River Band because they wrote
37:57
Speaker 1: a song about Cliff the year he was born, in
38:00
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy nine. Have you had up about the lords
38:05
Speaker 1: of Loser? He's a loser, but he still keeps up. Try.
38:15
Speaker 1: I'm always ready to talk about Club Kingsbury, a man
38:18
Speaker 1: who I've hated since long before I even had children,
38:21
Speaker 1: which feels like forty years ago, because he's been losing
38:25
Speaker 1: gambler's money for as long as he's been in charge
38:27
Speaker 1: of football teams. Here is his record at the end
38:30
Speaker 1: of every season since he took over Texas Tech. In
38:35
Speaker 1: in he lost four of his last five games. The
38:38
Speaker 1: next year he lost four of his last sex, and
38:41
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen he lost six of his last eight. Wow,
38:44
Speaker 1: that's a lot of losing. You may ask yourself, what
38:46
Speaker 1: kind of dogship quarterback did he have, oh ahead, Patrick
38:50
Speaker 1: fucking Mahomes as his quarterback for those three years. Oh so,
38:53
Speaker 1: what what happens after that? Well, in seventeen he lost
38:56
Speaker 1: six of his last eight. In eighteen, he lost all
39:00
Speaker 1: five of his final five. In twenty nineteen he lost
39:03
Speaker 1: seven of nine, and last year he lost six of nine,
39:07
Speaker 1: and one of those three wins was a fucking hail Mary.
39:09
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure how this guy failed up into
39:13
Speaker 1: an NFL job, but he's His offense now was basically
39:16
Speaker 1: the you know, the macarrey. Now, it was quite the
39:18
Speaker 1: rage a long time ago. People have since moved on
39:21
Speaker 1: and figured it out, and that's been demonstrated over and
39:25
Speaker 1: over and over and over again. And yet people still
39:29
Speaker 1: believe that he is an offensive genius because he's very
39:32
Speaker 1: handsome and he seems like a swell guy. But it's
39:34
Speaker 1: weird that there's seems to be very few topics that
39:37
Speaker 1: you gamblers all over the world, and hating Cliff Kingsbury
39:39
Speaker 1: is one of those. Anyway, thank you, I will now
39:42
Speaker 1: end my rate good. I want people to understand we
39:51
Speaker 1: might back him to start the year, but we're gonna
39:53
Speaker 1: be fading him second half of the season no matter
39:55
Speaker 1: what so it's definitely thing to keep your eye on.
39:58
Speaker 1: I did the math. I looked it up. While Matt
40:00
Speaker 1: Mitchell was ranting, these are the home dogs week one Indianapolis, Washington, Houston, Cincinnati,
40:10
Speaker 1: Detroit Giants read ass and I don't know if you
40:16
Speaker 1: can see in the app their home dogs are getting
40:18
Speaker 1: no money better on that? Like this is I'm telling
40:20
Speaker 1: you people, this is what me and Chad dream about.
40:22
Speaker 1: We love these kind of opportunities. So you're gonna get
40:25
Speaker 1: the best of the number by far, because the sports
40:27
Speaker 1: books are gonna keep moving the number until the pro
40:29
Speaker 1: is coming on the other side. So again, it's many things.
40:32
Speaker 1: If you're riding with me and Chad, keep waiting, we're
40:34
Speaker 1: gonna get better numbers to be a closer to the
40:36
Speaker 1: first week of season. The only question is going to
40:39
Speaker 1: be and the beauty of us doing the podcast twice
40:41
Speaker 1: a week now, Well, no, on Tuesday, should we be
40:44
Speaker 1: pulling the trigger? Do we have twenty four hours to
40:47
Speaker 1: pull the trigger? Thursday we can let people know if
40:49
Speaker 1: we have pulled the trigger, what we're leaning to for
40:52
Speaker 1: our weekend five. I will then debate Colin on the
40:55
Speaker 1: podcast we are recording the podcasts uh he and I
40:59
Speaker 1: were doing on Thursday evenings, so I'll have the full
41:02
Speaker 1: bevy of information that you and I have to try
41:04
Speaker 1: to convince him of everything he's doing that's wrong. And
41:06
Speaker 1: he will put that podcast out on Friday. Um, but
41:10
Speaker 1: I'm starting. I'm already stalivating it. All the good ideas
41:14
Speaker 1: we're gonna have and all the good decisions we're gonna
41:16
Speaker 1: make in Week one of the NFL season. Before we
41:20
Speaker 1: get to Week one, we do have to do our
41:22
Speaker 1: one final division. We're gonna do that on Thursday. We're
41:24
Speaker 1: gonna do the a f C West. Where you mentioned
41:27
Speaker 1: the Raiders, We've also got the Broncos. We've also got
41:30
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We've also got the team I love the
41:32
Speaker 1: most in the NFL, the Chargers, and the team that
41:34
Speaker 1: everybody loves most in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs.
41:38
Speaker 1: Will do that on Thursday. For Simon Hunter. I am
41:42
Speaker 1: Chad Millman. This has been the favorite from the Volume
41:44
Speaker 1: podcast Network. Download the podcast, Apple, Podcast, Spotify, wherever you
41:47
Speaker 1: get your podcast, Rate review, subscribe. We love us. We
41:50
Speaker 1: need adulation. It feeds Simon's soul. I love you