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UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
Speaker 1: Fall system stone clear, we lift.
0:36
Speaker 2: What is going on? Everybody?
0:38
Speaker 3: We are back talking some fights UFC Fight night in
0:42
Speaker 3: Serbia and it is at ten a m Eastern. Let
0:45
Speaker 3: me scroll up a little bit. I could zoom out,
0:48
Speaker 3: but you guys don't really care to see the top
0:49
Speaker 3: of here. We will just show all fourteen fights. You
0:52
Speaker 3: were looking at the Stone as always over here Mma
0:55
Speaker 3: the Stone. This is completely filled out, color coded, ownership projections,
0:59
Speaker 3: every thing.
1:00
Speaker 2: Weigh ins are in on Friday. We'd love to have
1:04
Speaker 2: you at the Nation.
1:04
Speaker 3: But we were talking fourteen fights, fourteen solid ones. I
1:07
Speaker 3: think a good DFS card fingers crossed to keep all fourteen.
1:11
Speaker 3: That is a phenomenal number, as twelve is the number
1:14
Speaker 3: that I'm always looking for. Throw it to you, big Marley.
1:17
Speaker 3: I like some early fights. We got another one this week.
1:20
Speaker 3: It was nine am last week, ten am this week,
1:22
Speaker 3: and I got to shout out poker for absolutely saving
1:26
Speaker 3: my ass because I was not going to get up
1:28
Speaker 3: if I was asleep in the morning I was playing poker.
1:31
Speaker 3: It made me leave the game at five am to
1:33
Speaker 3: rush home to get the teams in. But hey, I
1:36
Speaker 3: didn't draw dead. I actually won a little bit of money,
1:38
Speaker 3: so yeah, thank you for poker with the fight cancelation.
1:42
Speaker 3: There's a fight cancelation this week. I mean, what was it,
1:45
Speaker 3: fifteen percent of the field was dead last week. Now
1:48
Speaker 3: we get an hour later, maybe you'd be like seven
1:51
Speaker 3: or eight percent.
1:51
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm curious what you're taking in the
1:54
Speaker 2: if that's the case.
1:55
Speaker 3: But yeah, I guess anytime you have money in you
1:57
Speaker 3: probably should be getting up setting your alarm. As the
1:59
Speaker 3: moral of the story, I got lucky, how do you
2:02
Speaker 3: do it? Go about it? And what are your thoughts
2:03
Speaker 3: for this week?
2:04
Speaker 2: Card? Yeah?
2:05
Speaker 4: I mean I saw your update in the discord, which
2:08
Speaker 4: made me know about it. I only had I think
2:11
Speaker 4: one lineup at the time. Anyways, I might have had
2:13
Speaker 4: due Latov and I just switched over to Timrov, so
2:15
Speaker 4: it made me not win. But I mean, I wasn't
2:19
Speaker 4: really planning on even watching that card. I had a
2:21
Speaker 4: Saturday planned out, so I was like, you know, I'm
2:23
Speaker 4: gonna go light. I get lucky. I get lucky this week.
2:26
Speaker 4: I don't know that I have planned So I'm cool
2:27
Speaker 4: with a ten am fight.
2:29
Speaker 5: Card. Let me wake up watch some fights.
2:31
Speaker 4: I do think if we had a cancelation ten o'clock
2:33
Speaker 4: will make it less dead lineups I don't know about
2:37
Speaker 4: I don't know about ten even, maybe half of what
2:39
Speaker 4: we had last week, five percent even, but I'd be
2:42
Speaker 4: okay with that, especially on a fourteen fight card.
2:45
Speaker 5: But I mean, hopefully we keep them all.
2:46
Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of unknown names again which
2:50
Speaker 4: could have worked in our favor. And I got five
2:54
Speaker 4: three five star fights on this card. I think it
2:56
Speaker 4: was zero last week.
2:57
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah to a wildcard three five stars you
3:02
Speaker 3: have all of them in the or yeah, all of
3:06
Speaker 3: them in the main card, which we'll get to the
3:08
Speaker 3: first couple two three two three three, so you can
3:11
Speaker 3: kind of already tell where Big Marley's going with this.
3:14
Speaker 3: We'll be hoping it's boring to start a lot of
3:16
Speaker 3: finishes late. I'm just looking at our preliminary ownership right
3:20
Speaker 3: now here over at chip Nation. It's not up on
3:22
Speaker 3: the site, but only two fighters we have projected over
3:26
Speaker 3: forty percent right now, when everyone else below forty percent
3:29
Speaker 3: obviously know one about fifty. That is also things I
3:32
Speaker 3: love to see. I'm thinking it's a great DFS card.
3:35
Speaker 2: I'm thinking it should.
3:35
Speaker 3: Be a pretty solid real life card as well. Figures
3:38
Speaker 3: cross we keep all fourteen. It should be good. We
3:40
Speaker 3: got ysn in here, we got Jordan. Great to see
3:43
Speaker 3: you bout Jordan. Let me know if you actually are
3:44
Speaker 3: going to be in the MMA streets this week, that
3:47
Speaker 3: would I don't see you very often, so that'd be
3:49
Speaker 3: cool if you were. But appreciate you hanging out. All
3:52
Speaker 3: we asked from everyone out there. Many watch on playback,
3:54
Speaker 3: but like button helps us out a ton, subscribe button
3:57
Speaker 3: as well. Bringing you the show on Wednesday this week
3:59
Speaker 3: and next week will also be on Wednesday, all.
4:02
Speaker 2: Right, no time to waste. Fourteen fights to talk about.
4:05
Speaker 3: First fight of the night, Sephanie Luciano minus three thirty
4:08
Speaker 3: Marina Spassk plus two sixty seven plus one eighty for
4:12
Speaker 3: this fight to finish, Luciano plus two hundred inside the
4:15
Speaker 3: distance Spassk plus eight point fifty. I mean, man, this
4:19
Speaker 3: line has moved since I even wrote this fight up
4:22
Speaker 3: two hours ago. So it was minus three to fifteen
4:25
Speaker 3: on the money line. Now it's minus three thirty. It
4:28
Speaker 3: was plus two thirty inside the distance for Luciano, now
4:31
Speaker 3: it's plus two hundred. And the fight was plus one
4:33
Speaker 3: ninety five to finish, and now it's plus one eighty.
4:36
Speaker 3: So just in the past two hours since I wrote
4:38
Speaker 3: up this fight, Luciano and the under has taken money.
4:42
Speaker 3: And the first thing I look at is you see
4:44
Speaker 3: minus three thirty. I'm expecting ninety two hundred, ninety three hundred.
4:47
Speaker 3: She's only eighty nine hundred this week. So there's screen's
4:50
Speaker 3: money line value to me. And then I see five
4:53
Speaker 3: point two significant strikes per minute, one point three takedowns
4:56
Speaker 3: per fifteen.
4:57
Speaker 2: As only a twenty.
4:57
Speaker 3: Six year old, I have a little bit of interest,
5:00
Speaker 3: and I don't think this fight will get too much ownership.
5:01
Speaker 2: So what are your thoughts on this one? To kick
5:03
Speaker 2: it off?
5:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't have much interest. I think you can
5:06
Speaker 4: use either side as an ownership play. Spasik is just
5:10
Speaker 4: making her UFC debut because it's her home country. I
5:14
Speaker 4: doubt she would have got the call up had it
5:16
Speaker 4: not been in Serbia. But I just think Lucian. I
5:20
Speaker 4: don't think Spassk is bad. I thought she was okay.
5:23
Speaker 4: I just think that Luciano's better everywhere. I am kind
5:26
Speaker 4: of impressed with Luciano. She is a good striker, she's fast,
5:29
Speaker 4: she's got power too, and she spends so much time
5:32
Speaker 4: stuff and takedowns that she's kind of learned the ground
5:34
Speaker 4: game herself at this point, I think she even has
5:36
Speaker 4: the grappling edge here. So Luciano eighty nine hundred. I'm
5:40
Speaker 4: really not trying to pay eighty nine hundred dollars on
5:42
Speaker 4: this card, but she is a way to get different.
5:45
Speaker 4: I think she'll be sub twenty percent owned, possibly even
5:48
Speaker 4: around fifteen or less percent, So I think she does
5:51
Speaker 4: make sense as a low owned favorite. Who could I
5:55
Speaker 4: don't know about dominate, but just clearly win all three
5:58
Speaker 4: rounds and maybe mix in some takedowns as well.
6:00
Speaker 2: Well.
6:01
Speaker 4: Spastic on the other end, I mean maybe she can
6:03
Speaker 4: be in Okay cash gameplay seventy three hundred. Do you
6:06
Speaker 4: expect it to go all three rounds if she can
6:08
Speaker 4: mix in a takedown or to herself, I think she
6:10
Speaker 4: could score thirty or forty points even in a loss.
6:13
Speaker 5: But I do think in a win she's gonna flirt
6:15
Speaker 5: with ten X.
6:16
Speaker 4: I just don't see it happening, So I think I
6:18
Speaker 4: always want to get away from this fight. Hope Luciano
6:21
Speaker 4: does win and scores in the seventies, and I don't
6:24
Speaker 4: think that'll cut it. So this is I think my
6:26
Speaker 4: least favorite fight if not, it's my second least favorite
6:29
Speaker 4: fight to target on the card. So if I'll wake
6:32
Speaker 4: up a little bit late, hopefully there's no cancelations.
6:34
Speaker 5: But I'm okay in this in this way.
6:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely a little different than you. I probably
6:39
Speaker 3: at ownership will be overweight to this fight Luciano, Like
6:41
Speaker 3: I said, minus three thirty for eighty nine hundred is great.
6:44
Speaker 3: Add even she's plus two hundred inside the distance, which
6:47
Speaker 3: is taking money good. And now she's started to wrestle.
6:50
Speaker 3: Her last fight she got three takedowns. She scored ninety
6:53
Speaker 3: three DK points. I'll ask you, if I'm telling you
6:55
Speaker 3: Luciano or a Saturday scores ninety three DK points, how
6:59
Speaker 3: much do you think you'd have of her?
7:01
Speaker 4: Yeah, it would change my mind. I would want I'd
7:04
Speaker 4: probably want to be at least twenty, so that put
7:08
Speaker 4: me over eight.
7:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, because like you take ninety three. Now, is it
7:12
Speaker 3: favored to be optimal on a fourteen fight card.
7:14
Speaker 2: Probably not, But.
7:16
Speaker 3: You're not drawing dead, So I'm fine with her again
7:19
Speaker 3: at ownership, I think I think she's a little interesting
7:21
Speaker 3: in this spassic. She's a striker if she can keep
7:25
Speaker 3: it on the feet and it's supposed to go the distance,
7:26
Speaker 3: like we see if she can land one hundred significant strikes.
7:29
Speaker 3: We just saw last week seventy three hundred dollars fighter
7:31
Speaker 3: score thirty six d K points in a loss, and
7:34
Speaker 3: that thirty six DK points was enough to be on
7:37
Speaker 3: the optimal five winners one loser. If we get that again,
7:41
Speaker 3: there's a good amount of big favorites on this card.
7:43
Speaker 3: If we have very few dogs, like last week we
7:45
Speaker 3: had Temerov and then that said guy, and that's if
7:48
Speaker 3: that's the case again this week, we could see Spastik
7:51
Speaker 3: have a chance to be optimal.
7:53
Speaker 2: I don't like it. She's gonna be really low O.
7:55
Speaker 3: No, there's plenty of other dogs that I like less
7:57
Speaker 3: than her, So I will have both sides of this
7:59
Speaker 3: fight to start lose on on my preferred play, and
8:01
Speaker 3: she's a way to get different.
8:03
Speaker 2: All right, let's roll to the next fight on.
8:05
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna change it to four stars to Luciano,
8:08
Speaker 4: two stars to spastic I do think she would be
8:10
Speaker 4: my preferred player of the two.
8:13
Speaker 2: Cool I like it. I agree.
8:15
Speaker 3: Next fight on the card, first of the two heavyweight fights,
8:18
Speaker 3: jovon Laca minus two twenty five taking on Alexander Poppic
8:22
Speaker 3: minus one fifty plus one fifty or plus one fifteen
8:25
Speaker 3: insud the distance for Laca plus four to twenty five
8:28
Speaker 3: for Popic run one prop for Laca plus three thirty five.
8:33
Speaker 3: So this was originally supposed to be Laca versus macmenaz
8:37
Speaker 3: out is tremenace with an injury in steps Popic twenty
8:41
Speaker 3: one and five, thirty four years old, making his UFC
8:44
Speaker 3: debut lost to Jamal Hill on Contender Series back in
8:46
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen. No shame in that, obviously, but the concern
8:51
Speaker 3: about him is like, he's a natural two zh fiver.
8:53
Speaker 3: Now he's coming up to heavyweight, taking on Laca, who
8:56
Speaker 3: tips the scales at two sixty five.
8:58
Speaker 2: So pop Popik will love to speed advantage on the feet.
9:01
Speaker 3: I think it's relatively close there if Laka gets on top,
9:04
Speaker 3: though I'm worried that Popik will not be able to
9:06
Speaker 3: get up with that big frame of Laka.
9:08
Speaker 2: So what's your thoughts on this one? The first of
9:10
Speaker 2: two heavyweight fights.
9:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, the size advantage is what's pushing me over to Laka.
9:17
Speaker 4: I think Popik is the better striker, the more dangerous
9:21
Speaker 4: looking striker, but he is taking this fight on short
9:23
Speaker 4: notice up at heavyweight against a true heavyweight, and he's
9:27
Speaker 4: just gonna be at a real size disadvantage. And if
9:29
Speaker 4: Laka gets one takedown, I don't think Poppik really doesn't
9:33
Speaker 4: have a ground game period, So I don't think he's
9:34
Speaker 4: gonna have any get up game against a two hundred
9:36
Speaker 4: and sixty five pounder in Laka Laca.
9:39
Speaker 5: I thought he was more of a striker.
9:42
Speaker 4: He's okay at striking, he's got some power, but in
9:46
Speaker 4: this matchup, specifically on short notice, I think he should
9:49
Speaker 4: look to wrestle, and he does have some pretty mean
9:51
Speaker 4: ground and pound. So for the Popik side, I think
9:54
Speaker 4: he's kind of a round one knockout or bust. If
9:57
Speaker 4: he gets it, he's on the optimal lineup. But if
9:59
Speaker 4: he doesn't, I think that takedowns are probably going to
10:01
Speaker 4: be there for Laka, and I think that the more
10:04
Speaker 4: takedowns that are there for Laka, the more Popic starts
10:06
Speaker 4: to slow down as the fight moves along, And maybe
10:10
Speaker 4: if it gets to the third round and he's been
10:12
Speaker 4: on his back for two rounds at that point, maybe
10:14
Speaker 4: he'll give up to a little ground and pound a
10:16
Speaker 4: stoppage at that point, So I do like Laca. I
10:21
Speaker 4: don't know how much I want to get any eighty
10:23
Speaker 4: seven hundred. He doesn't look like a high paced fighter,
10:26
Speaker 4: so I think you would really be relying on the
10:29
Speaker 4: finish bonus points or multiple takedowns and a lot of
10:34
Speaker 4: top control for him to score well. So not somebody
10:36
Speaker 4: I'm going to force into lineups. But I'm fine clicking
10:39
Speaker 4: his name because he's only eighty seven hundred dollars nine
10:42
Speaker 4: hundred cheaper than Rebeccy.
10:43
Speaker 5: I'm cool with that.
10:45
Speaker 3: One hundred percent there with you, and I do agree.
10:47
Speaker 3: I worry about the pace of this fight a little bit,
10:49
Speaker 3: but there is takedown upside. Now I don't know how
10:51
Speaker 3: much take down upside because I'm not expecting Topic to
10:54
Speaker 3: get up and when he is taken down. So yeah,
10:56
Speaker 3: I think more than like you'll need a finish at
10:59
Speaker 3: eighty seven to have a chance at the optimal and
11:01
Speaker 3: has run one prop plus three thirty five. That's twenty
11:03
Speaker 3: three percent, which is relatively close to his ownership. So
11:07
Speaker 3: and again there's outs for him to get a second
11:09
Speaker 3: round finish and be optimal as well.
11:11
Speaker 2: So I have some interest in Laka.
11:13
Speaker 3: I also have interest in Poppic though, seventy five hundred
11:15
Speaker 3: solid money line for his price if he can keep
11:18
Speaker 3: it on the feet. He is very live to get
11:20
Speaker 3: a ko at any time. So I like it, I
11:23
Speaker 3: don't love it. That's how I see this fight going
11:26
Speaker 3: to the second highest price fighter on the card and
11:28
Speaker 3: the second biggest favorite. We got Nina Melisovich taken on
11:33
Speaker 3: Haley Cowen Nina or this fight's minus one twenty to
11:36
Speaker 3: finish Nina plus one hundred inside the distance, Cowen plus
11:40
Speaker 3: nine hundred. This fight opened with Nina minus four hundred again,
11:45
Speaker 3: now she finds herself as minus five hundred open plus
11:48
Speaker 3: one ten inside the distance now plus one hundred. Where
11:51
Speaker 3: the most line movement has come is Nina by submission
11:55
Speaker 3: open plus two eighty five now plus two hundred, So
12:00
Speaker 3: she's also plus two to thirty in round one. I
12:02
Speaker 3: should mention, Yeah, the big discussion is she's ninety five hundred.
12:05
Speaker 3: That's a big boy price tag, big girl price tag.
12:08
Speaker 3: I guess I should say two dollars more or for
12:11
Speaker 3: one hundred more you get two dollars in moneyline equity.
12:14
Speaker 3: On the Rebeccy side, who's minus seven hundred. Also Rebeccy
12:19
Speaker 3: a good bit better inside the distance prop Again, Nina's
12:21
Speaker 3: was plus one hundred, Rebeccy's is minus I want to say,
12:25
Speaker 3: hold on, let's have this load, so I get it
12:27
Speaker 3: right minus one forty five. So actually not as much
12:30
Speaker 3: as I initially thought. I'll throw it to you in
12:32
Speaker 3: this one. Talk about this fight and then talk about
12:34
Speaker 3: how Rebeccy and Nina compare.
12:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is either my second or my least favorite
12:41
Speaker 4: fight on the card. Really the same similar worries as
12:43
Speaker 4: that first fight.
12:44
Speaker 5: I like Nina.
12:45
Speaker 4: I think she's just a better fighter everywhere. I think
12:48
Speaker 4: she's probably gonna want to keep it on the feet, though,
12:51
Speaker 4: And at ninety five hundred dollars, I just don't think
12:54
Speaker 4: the pace is going to be high enough for her
12:56
Speaker 4: to pay that off without an early knockout. I mean,
13:00
Speaker 4: Cohen could get knocked out, it wouldn't surprise me, but
13:03
Speaker 4: I just don't want to pay ninety five hundred dollars
13:05
Speaker 4: to find that out. So I'm looking at this as
13:07
Speaker 4: a pass. I'm not really trying to pay for Cohen either.
13:11
Speaker 4: I might move her to a one star, Nina to
13:13
Speaker 4: a five star, and Nina would just be specifically an
13:17
Speaker 4: ownership play if I got to her, but I would
13:19
Speaker 4: rather pay one hundred dollars more for Rebeccy, who I
13:22
Speaker 4: think has a higher pace, more takedown equity, and more
13:26
Speaker 4: finishing equity. So that might lead me to xing out Nina,
13:31
Speaker 4: But the more lineups I make, the more viable she
13:34
Speaker 4: would be. I am find xing out Colen though. I
13:37
Speaker 4: think she is just an okay athlete but not really
13:40
Speaker 4: UFC material, and I don't see any single advantage for her,
13:44
Speaker 4: especially over in Serbia.
13:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I agree with you on that. I'm
13:49
Speaker 3: definitely exing Colwin. I mean, she's seven and five is
13:51
Speaker 3: a pro oh and three in the UFC, been finishing
13:54
Speaker 3: her last two fights. It's time to find a new career.
13:57
Speaker 3: It's how I look at thirty four years old. You
14:00
Speaker 3: got plenty of other life to figure out something else
14:02
Speaker 3: to do. Nina definitely better wherever the fight goes. I
14:05
Speaker 3: actually think I prefer Nina to Rebeccy. Now, the reason
14:09
Speaker 3: for that not in a vacuum. It comes down to
14:12
Speaker 3: I think Nina will be less than half his own
14:14
Speaker 3: You could be talking about one third of the ownership
14:17
Speaker 3: and she's one hundred less. But she has wrestling upside,
14:20
Speaker 3: she has submission upside, like we say she's open plus
14:23
Speaker 3: twenty five by sub now plus two hundred, I think
14:26
Speaker 3: there is multiple takedown upside on the side for Nina,
14:30
Speaker 3: And if that's the case, I mean three takedowns, a
14:33
Speaker 3: second round submission, fifteen percent ownership or something. If she
14:37
Speaker 3: does outscore Rebeccy, you will have a lot better chance
14:40
Speaker 3: to ship with a lot less fewer people than if
14:43
Speaker 3: you just play Rebeccy instead. So I think as a
14:47
Speaker 3: way to get different plus one hundred to finish for
14:49
Speaker 3: Nina plus one forty five or minus one forty five
14:52
Speaker 3: for Rebeccy plus twenty five in a round one for
14:55
Speaker 3: Rebecy plus what was it for Nina? Headed up, Let's
15:00
Speaker 3: see plus two eighty five in round one for Nina
15:04
Speaker 3: has a better Holy cow, is that right? Nina plus
15:07
Speaker 3: two to thirty in round one Rebeccy plus two eighty five.
15:12
Speaker 3: So yeah, Nina's round one prop is better than Matteos
15:14
Speaker 3: Rebecci's on this late. To be honest with Rebeccy and
15:18
Speaker 3: the pace he can push and mixing in takedowns, a
15:21
Speaker 3: late second round finish is actually probably better for him,
15:24
Speaker 3: But yeah. I actually didn't even know that coming into
15:26
Speaker 3: this because Rebeccy props weren't fully out. So yeah, give
15:29
Speaker 3: me Nina as my preferred play, definitely over Cowen. But
15:32
Speaker 3: I do like her more than Rebeccy. Again, it's meaning
15:35
Speaker 3: the ownership discount. She's one hundred less and she can
15:38
Speaker 3: wrestle in this one as well, So I have more
15:40
Speaker 3: interest in Nina than you, and I think she gets
15:43
Speaker 3: to win in this one. How much does she score, obviously,
15:45
Speaker 3: and what others do is the question if she ends.
15:48
Speaker 2: Up optimal or not.
15:50
Speaker 3: We're gonna keep it rolling to the biggest favorite like
15:52
Speaker 3: we just talked about, and the highest price mateos Rebeccy
15:55
Speaker 3: minus seven hundred Kyle Preppoleik plus five h five minus
16:00
Speaker 3: to wonner for this fight to finish Rebeccy minus won
16:02
Speaker 3: forty five inside the distance Preplic plus five seventy five
16:06
Speaker 3: Rebeccy round one plus two eighty five. I mean, I
16:10
Speaker 3: hate to like rip on these guys because they would
16:12
Speaker 3: all beat my ass. But another guy that needs to
16:14
Speaker 3: find a new job is prepolic man oh and four
16:16
Speaker 3: in the UFC just cannot figure it out. Eighteen and
16:20
Speaker 3: ten as a pro. He's thirty six years old. Rebeccy
16:23
Speaker 3: has had a lot of very difficult fights as of lates.
16:26
Speaker 3: I think the UFC finally giving him a little alley
16:28
Speaker 3: oop to get back on track after all the hard
16:31
Speaker 3: fights he's had. So I think Rebeccy rolls. I just
16:34
Speaker 3: talked about him just as much as need in that
16:36
Speaker 3: last fight. Though it's a pricing thing. He's still gonna
16:38
Speaker 3: get ownership. Yeah, I'll let you take it from there.
16:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely exit out Prepelic in this one. He's tough,
16:47
Speaker 4: that's the best thing to say about him. But this
16:49
Speaker 4: is definitely a get right spot for Rebeccy. He's lost
16:52
Speaker 4: three in a row. They're like, all right, we need
16:54
Speaker 4: we need to throw this guy a softball. Let's give
16:57
Speaker 4: him Coyle Prepelic, let him go five the don't give
16:59
Speaker 4: him the pink slip.
17:01
Speaker 5: But I mean, I like Rebeccy in general. His wins.
17:04
Speaker 4: He has scored one oh four, one twenty two, one
17:08
Speaker 4: eleven ninety two, and then he scored sixty twice in
17:13
Speaker 4: a loss almost three times. So I just love this
17:16
Speaker 4: guy's pace. He's gonna have every edge in this fight.
17:18
Speaker 4: He's gonna be the better wrestler, better grappler, better striker,
17:21
Speaker 4: more power, higher pace. The only thing I don't like
17:25
Speaker 4: is ninety six hundred dollars salary. Once you get over
17:28
Speaker 4: ninety five hundred dollars, it just gets a little bit
17:30
Speaker 4: harder to make the optimal lineup because you're counting on
17:32
Speaker 4: either cheap underdogs to win or multiple underdogs to win.
17:37
Speaker 4: I do think with fourteen fights that is more in play,
17:41
Speaker 4: so I will get Rebeccy exposure. I'd even be fine
17:43
Speaker 4: with him in like a single injury if I could
17:45
Speaker 4: afford it, but I'm not. I'm not going to force
17:48
Speaker 4: him in at ninety six hundred dollars. I'd be absolutely
17:51
Speaker 4: okay going down to Laka for nine hundred dollars. I
17:55
Speaker 4: don't know that I would want to leave that nine
17:56
Speaker 4: hundred dollars on the table, But if that nine hundred
17:59
Speaker 4: dollars gets me up to another underdog that I like
18:01
Speaker 4: more than I'm absolutely cool with that. So for me,
18:04
Speaker 4: it's gonna be Rebeccy or pass. We'll see how much
18:07
Speaker 4: I end up getting of him. But I feel like
18:09
Speaker 4: he is going to just roll through Pepo Prepelic and
18:12
Speaker 4: score one hundred and.
18:14
Speaker 3: Ten or so are you taking one hundred and ten?
18:17
Speaker 3: I just say, I tell you right now, he scored
18:18
Speaker 3: one hundred eleven, his second highest that you mentioned.
18:21
Speaker 2: Are you taking that?
18:22
Speaker 5: I'm taking a good amount.
18:24
Speaker 4: I would say i'd want that in uh yeah, thirty
18:27
Speaker 4: to forty percent of my lineups at least.
18:30
Speaker 2: That's so about about with the field. If you know
18:32
Speaker 2: he scores one ten.
18:33
Speaker 4: Yeah, i'd say so if I know, if I know
18:36
Speaker 4: he scored one ten, maybe give me a little bit
18:37
Speaker 4: over the field just in case. But there are a
18:39
Speaker 4: couple other people I think can get up there with him,
18:42
Speaker 4: But I think he is the third, maybe the third
18:46
Speaker 4: highest ceiling on the slate.
18:49
Speaker 2: Were you surprised to see that his round one prop
18:51
Speaker 2: was worse than Nina's.
18:52
Speaker 4: Yeah, although he's plus two hundred on the other sites.
18:56
Speaker 4: So all right, I mean I bet has the worst line.
19:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do think BET online is the sharpest, though
19:04
Speaker 3: they put out the lines and it's a lot of copy,
19:07
Speaker 3: copy and paste and stuff from these other books.
19:09
Speaker 2: But yeah, that's fair. I see draftings as a plus
19:11
Speaker 2: two hundred, and.
19:13
Speaker 3: There has to be a lot of like you mentioned,
19:15
Speaker 3: preplix toughness. A lot of that is baked into that number,
19:18
Speaker 3: whereas Cowing, I mean, she's seven and five. Shit, she
19:21
Speaker 3: can fold at anytime, so that's the reason for that.
19:23
Speaker 3: But again, I think you almost at ninety six hundred
19:26
Speaker 3: with Rebeccy's pace and wrestling upside. To be honest, you
19:29
Speaker 3: probably do want it to get outside the first round
19:31
Speaker 3: if Rebeccy's just beating his ass and he can keep
19:33
Speaker 3: pouring it on him, and you always cheer for that
19:35
Speaker 3: buzzer beater finish if it's outside of the first minute
19:38
Speaker 3: for obvious reasons to accumulate points.
19:41
Speaker 2: All right, we'll keep it rolling. Again.
19:43
Speaker 3: I appreciate everyone hanging out life Bunton and subscribe button
19:45
Speaker 3: helps us out a ton. And remember ten am Eastern
19:49
Speaker 3: is the start time, so early Saturday, late Friday.
19:52
Speaker 2: Make sure to get your teams in.
19:54
Speaker 3: Next fight on the card bugged On Grod minus one
19:57
Speaker 3: ninety Dennis Buzukiam plus one sixty if minus one twenty
20:01
Speaker 3: for this fight to finish, Grod plus one eighty five
20:03
Speaker 3: inside the distance Bazukia plus three hundred. In terms of
20:07
Speaker 3: line movement in this one, Bogdon Grod opened minus two
20:10
Speaker 3: fifty got as low as minus one sixty. Then he
20:13
Speaker 3: took a little money after that to minus one ninety,
20:16
Speaker 3: so quite a bit of line movement in this one.
20:18
Speaker 2: I'll let you take it away to start. What do
20:20
Speaker 2: you see?
20:21
Speaker 4: Yeah, I am again. I'm fine getting rid of the
20:25
Speaker 4: underdog in this one. I really just don't care too
20:27
Speaker 4: much for Bozuka. I don't think that he's a high
20:31
Speaker 4: paced fighter anywhere, and I really don't I'm not a
20:34
Speaker 4: Grod guy, but I really don't give Bazuka any edge
20:36
Speaker 4: in this one. I think Grod is going to be
20:39
Speaker 4: more of a wild man, which will bring him more
20:40
Speaker 4: aggressiveness and a higher pace. I think he has more
20:44
Speaker 4: knockout power, and Bozuka just got knocked out a couple
20:47
Speaker 4: months ago as well, which is not gonna help. I
20:50
Speaker 4: give Grod the wrestling advantage. Maybe, if anything, Grod could
20:54
Speaker 4: blow his load early and then Buzuka could come back
20:57
Speaker 4: and beat him late. But I don't know that he
20:59
Speaker 4: would even score points if that's the case, especially if
21:02
Speaker 4: he's getting rolled through in the in the early half
21:04
Speaker 4: of this fight. So for me, I am okay with
21:06
Speaker 4: Gorod exposure. Eighty six hundred dollars is a pretty solid price,
21:10
Speaker 4: so I want some Grod. I'm not going to get
21:12
Speaker 4: to too much Bazuka if any. The higher on he is,
21:14
Speaker 4: the more likely I am to x him out, even
21:16
Speaker 4: if I was making a lot of lineups. So I
21:18
Speaker 4: think this line should be a little bit wider. Give
21:21
Speaker 4: me Grod or pass to.
21:24
Speaker 2: Play any Bazuka. If you had twenty teams or.
21:26
Speaker 5: Less, twenty or less, I'm mixing them out.
21:29
Speaker 2: Damn you got some balld I. Bazuka is actually my
21:32
Speaker 2: preferred play.
21:33
Speaker 3: The reason for that, I don't everything you're saying I
21:35
Speaker 3: totally agree with and like, but I think it's the
21:38
Speaker 3: right matchup for Bazuka in the sense of Crod will
21:40
Speaker 3: push the pace and force Bizukia to do something. And again,
21:44
Speaker 3: he was minus two fifty to start. I want to
21:47
Speaker 3: say it was minus two fifty or was it two thirty.
21:49
Speaker 3: Let's see minus two fifty to start and always minus
21:53
Speaker 3: one nineties. A lot of money on the Bazuka side,
21:55
Speaker 3: and that is including since the Tuesday when this line opened.
21:59
Speaker 3: He's also seventy six hundred as a plus one sixty
22:02
Speaker 3: plus one sixty five is solid money line. Then you
22:05
Speaker 3: look solid money line value, then you look at Bazukia
22:09
Speaker 3: inside the distance plus three hundred inside the distance at
22:12
Speaker 3: seventy six hundred is definitely good. It's twenty five percent,
22:16
Speaker 3: So twenty five percent chance Bazukia wins this fight inside
22:19
Speaker 3: the distance, and most of those wins I will I mean,
22:22
Speaker 3: I'll take any finish win, but I would say ninety
22:25
Speaker 3: percent plus of his finished wins are probably optimal at
22:28
Speaker 3: seventy six hundred. So for that reason alone, I'm definitely
22:32
Speaker 3: playing Bazuki on a slate where I have some underdogs
22:35
Speaker 3: I have interest in, but I don't love many a
22:38
Speaker 3: good amount of big favorites on the groad side. Again,
22:41
Speaker 3: I prefer Bazukia in this fight, but God, anytime you
22:44
Speaker 3: average four point two to two takedowns per fifteen minutes
22:47
Speaker 3: and push a high pace like he does, you always
22:49
Speaker 3: have outs at the optimal and him being eighty six hundred,
22:52
Speaker 3: I do think keeps his ownership in check a little
22:55
Speaker 3: bit with some people going to others in the mid
22:58
Speaker 3: tier and others around him. So solid fight to target
23:01
Speaker 3: the underdog Buzuki is my prefer play, but I am
23:04
Speaker 3: fined with some Gorod. This is I think the most
23:07
Speaker 3: we've disagreed to start a card in a long time,
23:09
Speaker 3: but I like it again. Big Marley and I do
23:11
Speaker 3: not talk any fights or share anything before getting on
23:14
Speaker 3: this show. We have our own process and our own stuff.
23:17
Speaker 3: So that's what you guys should should like. You don't
23:19
Speaker 3: want to ever, in my opinion, any sport, any show,
23:22
Speaker 3: if these two people or three people would ever say
23:25
Speaker 3: the same thing based on any take they have, that's
23:27
Speaker 3: probably not the right.
23:29
Speaker 2: Show to watch, in my opinions. So we will see.
23:31
Speaker 3: It's either gonna be or Big Marley at the top
23:34
Speaker 3: of the leader boards. Just kidding, I wish it worked
23:36
Speaker 3: like that. More than likely we're both not at the top.
23:39
Speaker 3: It's hard, but when you win, how much do you win?
23:41
Speaker 3: Is all you care about? In the DFS streets. Let's
23:45
Speaker 3: keep it rolling to a fight I'd have some interest in.
23:47
Speaker 3: We got Borislav Nicolick minus one eighty five taking on
23:52
Speaker 3: Mark Vologden plus one sixty minus one fifteen for this
23:55
Speaker 3: fight to finish, Nicolck plus one fifty five inside the
23:58
Speaker 3: distance vlogged in plus four hundred Nicolick in round one
24:04
Speaker 3: plus three seventy five. So this was originally supposed to
24:08
Speaker 3: be vologd in versus Hosias Musasa out is Musasa in
24:18
Speaker 3: stept Nicolick and not every day do you see the
24:20
Speaker 3: short notice guy making his UFC debut is the favorite,
24:23
Speaker 3: and that is what we have here with Nikolack. He's
24:26
Speaker 3: thirty three years old, sixteen and two is a pro,
24:30
Speaker 3: has finished all or it's finished. Fifteen of his sixteen wins,
24:33
Speaker 3: seven by ko, eight by submission. Some of them have
24:37
Speaker 3: been in the championship rounds. He's fought five rounds before.
24:40
Speaker 3: I actually am impressed with this guy. I'm excited to
24:42
Speaker 3: see what he does in the UFC. Pushes the pace,
24:44
Speaker 3: good striking, good on the mats, and I just think
24:47
Speaker 3: he's better everywhere than Mark. So I have a lot
24:50
Speaker 3: of interests eighty four hundred. I think he is one
24:52
Speaker 3: of my favorite plays on the slate in the mid tier.
24:55
Speaker 3: I'll be hoping he gets a finish. I plan on
24:57
Speaker 3: being overweight.
24:58
Speaker 5: What about you like nikolicch here on the Volodin side.
25:02
Speaker 4: I like him more than Bazuka just for the pace alone,
25:05
Speaker 4: though I'd rather pay that two hundred dollars more to
25:08
Speaker 4: get him against somebody coming in on short notice. I
25:12
Speaker 4: don't think he gets completely blown out in the first
25:14
Speaker 4: round either. Like I feel like Bazuka could, so I
25:16
Speaker 4: prefer vologged in to him. But I like Nikolic to win,
25:21
Speaker 4: so I don't even know how much Vologden I want
25:23
Speaker 4: to get. I think Nikolitch is probably a better striker.
25:27
Speaker 4: I don't like that Vologden's eating three hundred significant strikes
25:31
Speaker 4: and his two fights in the cage. I think that's
25:33
Speaker 4: gonna start to wear on him at some point. I
25:36
Speaker 4: don't like that my mom is taller than Vologden. Nikolch
25:40
Speaker 4: I think could knock him out. He's a He's a
25:42
Speaker 4: net grabber too. I think he could submit him real
25:44
Speaker 4: quick if he grabs a neck. I was just impressed
25:47
Speaker 4: with this guy. I thought he brings the fight as well.
25:49
Speaker 4: So if you add that with Vologden's pace, I think
25:52
Speaker 4: we got a pretty decent chance of Nikolitch scoring one
25:55
Speaker 4: hundred or so points in a win. That's what I'm
25:58
Speaker 4: gonna take. I think it could be a knockout or submission.
26:01
Speaker 4: But even in a decision, I wouldn't put it past
26:03
Speaker 4: Nikolas to score over ten x and have a chance
26:05
Speaker 4: at the out the Melennic. So I want to be
26:08
Speaker 4: overweight on Nikolic, I will be underweight on Vologden, but
26:12
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna x him out with twenty or less
26:15
Speaker 4: like I probably would Bazukia.
26:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that man.
26:20
Speaker 3: He's shorter than my mom at one hundred and thirty
26:23
Speaker 3: five pounds as a as a man, I mean, I
26:25
Speaker 3: guess five to three, five to three short, no doubt
26:28
Speaker 3: about that. Five nine is really tall? Is Nikolak for
26:30
Speaker 3: the division too. I'll be keeping a close eye on
26:32
Speaker 3: how he looks on the scales, but yeah, six inch
26:35
Speaker 3: reach advantag or six inch hide advantage, he has a
26:37
Speaker 3: whole lot of upside in my opinion in this one
26:40
Speaker 3: on the ground, on the feet. I just think he's
26:43
Speaker 3: a better fighter everywhere.
26:44
Speaker 2: Uh.
26:45
Speaker 3: I prefer obviously Bozukia two Vologden. You guys could have
26:48
Speaker 3: guessed that I don't have much interest in Vologden. With
26:52
Speaker 3: that being said, the more the more the higher on
26:55
Speaker 3: Nikolak is, the more interests I have in Vologden. But
26:58
Speaker 3: I do think the mid tier good enough where this
27:01
Speaker 3: fight gets like you see right here Todorovich and Valentine
27:06
Speaker 3: minus four hundred mid tier fight, Jan Chich Googan minus
27:10
Speaker 3: three twenty five and finished mid tier fight. So just
27:13
Speaker 3: naturally those fights are gonna get a good amount of ownership,
27:15
Speaker 3: so I don't think Nikolick's ownership gets two out of hand.
27:19
Speaker 3: So I don't love Mark, but high paced fight. Like
27:22
Speaker 3: you said, maybe I am just completely wrong on Nickolick
27:26
Speaker 3: making his UFC debut. Maybe he's just not as good
27:28
Speaker 3: as we think. If Mark wins, he probably should score solids.
27:31
Speaker 3: All have him in my pool. But Nikolick I definitely
27:33
Speaker 3: want to be overweight on and is my pick to win.
27:36
Speaker 2: What's up, Kenny, Great to see you. I'm gon shout
27:39
Speaker 2: out to you.
27:40
Speaker 3: I think it was like eighth place in the PGA streets,
27:43
Speaker 3: fifty five thousand, I think it was, so congrats to
27:46
Speaker 3: you at the championship, and I know you Ricardo and
27:49
Speaker 3: Matt Kay have the UFC Final coming up in a
27:52
Speaker 3: couple weeks and you have MLB. So man, what a
27:55
Speaker 3: summer and what a good month for the man. Kenny
27:58
Speaker 3: over there, not a great Probably not great for the wife.
28:01
Speaker 3: I'm kind of joking, but I know, I know you
28:03
Speaker 3: mentioned you're trying to get out to all of them,
28:05
Speaker 3: but with two kids at home, it's a little tough
28:08
Speaker 3: for the wife taking all this stuff.
28:10
Speaker 2: But that's awesome. Oh, yeah, and Sheets too. Shout out
28:12
Speaker 2: to Sheets.
28:12
Speaker 3: He won a five man tiebreaker in the MMA Streets
28:16
Speaker 3: last week with a three from Thomas Peterson. So ship
28:19
Speaker 3: at Nation rolling up to the MMA Championship. Good luck
28:24
Speaker 3: to you guys. That'll be a lot of fun, all right,
28:26
Speaker 3: we'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, Michael
28:29
Speaker 3: Olivera taking on Obon Elliott's Olivera minus three fifty five
28:35
Speaker 3: inside the distance Elliott plus two to eighty five minus
28:38
Speaker 3: two twenty for this fight to finish, Olivera minus one
28:41
Speaker 3: seventy five inside the distance Elliott plus six fifty Olivera
28:45
Speaker 3: in round one plus one p fifty. Man, those those
28:49
Speaker 3: props are phenomenal, So there are there has been some
28:52
Speaker 3: line movement in this one. Olivera open minus two seventy five.
28:55
Speaker 3: Shortly after, like fifteen minutes later, was minus four fifty.
28:59
Speaker 2: Then we have some money come back on the Obah side.
29:03
Speaker 3: And then for the inside the distance prop oliver opened
29:06
Speaker 3: minus one fifty five now minus one seventy five for
29:09
Speaker 3: the round one prop oliver Open plus one ninety now
29:12
Speaker 3: plus one fifty ninety two hundred. I think he is
29:15
Speaker 3: one of my favorite plays on the slate. I think
29:18
Speaker 3: he can outscore Rebeccy, he can outscore Nina. You're getting
29:21
Speaker 3: a four hundred and a three hundred price decrease. The
29:24
Speaker 3: dude's scary. I mean, all the props are moving in
29:26
Speaker 3: his way, finishing money line, all of that. I think
29:29
Speaker 3: ninety two hundred is value when it's all said and done.
29:33
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'll let you talk about Elliott.
29:35
Speaker 3: I guess if he wins, I feel like he has
29:37
Speaker 3: to wrestle so at seven k on a card, I
29:39
Speaker 3: don't like too many dogs. Maybe for that reason alone,
29:42
Speaker 3: I keep him in my pool. But yeah, I think
29:44
Speaker 3: it should be Olivero.
29:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Elliott more than Bezuka, so I'll keep
29:50
Speaker 4: him in my pool. If he wins, he's gonna have
29:52
Speaker 4: to wrestle Land. I would say more than three takedowns,
29:55
Speaker 4: three or four takedowns at least if he's gonna win.
29:57
Speaker 4: But he is a well rounded fighter. I just don't
30:00
Speaker 4: like Elliott's pace either. But yeah, I mean OLIVERA is
30:03
Speaker 4: my pick for sure. OLIVERA is nasty. This guy is dangerous,
30:07
Speaker 4: and he's just got a ton of offensive firepower. He
30:10
Speaker 4: can bring a pace unlike Elliott, and I just think
30:13
Speaker 4: that he's gonna end up smoking Elliott on the feet,
30:16
Speaker 4: probably get a knockout at some point.
30:18
Speaker 5: But I would worry.
30:19
Speaker 4: About him spending time on his back, maybe getting taken
30:22
Speaker 4: down multiple times, starting to slow down as well. At
30:25
Speaker 4: ninety two hundred dollars, those are my worries. But I
30:27
Speaker 4: would rather have him at ninety two hundred than Nina
30:31
Speaker 4: and save that three hundred dollars. I'd rather have him
30:33
Speaker 4: at ninety five hundred dollars over Nina. Like so, I think, yeah,
30:36
Speaker 4: I think we're getting some value at ninety two, and
30:39
Speaker 4: I think this kid is the real deal. I'm looking
30:41
Speaker 4: forward to seeing him in the UFC, and I think
30:44
Speaker 4: the UFC has given him a pretty good test for
30:46
Speaker 4: his first step up too.
30:48
Speaker 5: That's I think that's a good sign. So give me Alavera.
30:51
Speaker 4: I want to be overweight to him, and I'm looking
30:54
Speaker 4: forward to seeing what he can do against a guy
30:55
Speaker 4: like Oban Elliott. If he can knock out Elliott, especially
30:59
Speaker 4: in the in the first or second round.
31:02
Speaker 5: Man, this skuy's the limit for this guy. I'm looking
31:04
Speaker 5: forward to it.
31:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking forward to it too.
31:06
Speaker 3: We have a couple guys making the UFC debut coming
31:08
Speaker 3: up that are exciting fighters. Yeah, Oban Elliott at seven
31:12
Speaker 3: K just looking at it. For the fighters that are
31:15
Speaker 3: around him are cheaper, Prepolic Toast, Tayley Cowen toast We'll
31:19
Speaker 3: get to d Rod later, We'll get to Tyburrow later,
31:23
Speaker 3: or being a lyon, We're gonna get to a lot
31:24
Speaker 3: of these guys later. So maybe I'll circle back and
31:26
Speaker 3: see where Oban lists our ranks amongst some of those
31:29
Speaker 3: other really cheap fighters. But from the ones we've already
31:31
Speaker 3: talked about that are cheaper, Cowen and Preppolic, I mean,
31:34
Speaker 3: you guys can guess it.
31:35
Speaker 2: Clearly, Oban is my.
31:37
Speaker 3: Preferred play over those guys slash girls. All right, next
31:41
Speaker 3: fight on the card. Another big favorite be loasto cpo
31:45
Speaker 3: minus one sixty taking on Gilbert, or being a plus
31:48
Speaker 3: two eighty nine minus one thousand for this fight to
31:51
Speaker 3: finish sepo minus two to eighty five inside the distance,
31:54
Speaker 3: or being a plus three point fifteen sepo in round
31:58
Speaker 3: one minus two hundred and he opened minus one ten
32:01
Speaker 3: in round one.
32:02
Speaker 2: So we're talking line movement. That is a whole lot
32:04
Speaker 2: of line movement.
32:06
Speaker 3: And yeah, I said only vera one of my favorite
32:08
Speaker 3: plays I think in a vacuum, ninety one hundred point
32:10
Speaker 3: per dollar, Sepo has to be up there, top three
32:13
Speaker 3: on the card. I mean, minus two hundred in round
32:16
Speaker 3: one is absolutely wild. That fights minus one thousand to finish.
32:20
Speaker 3: Sepo's a great play, And with all that being said,
32:22
Speaker 3: I think Herbina is an elite play himself. You only
32:25
Speaker 3: have it a one star, and I get it. But
32:28
Speaker 3: Acepo's gonna be high owned, one of the highest on
32:30
Speaker 3: the slate due to his money line and his price.
32:32
Speaker 3: And this fight's minus one thousand to finish under one
32:35
Speaker 3: and a half is minus two sixty Urbina money line
32:38
Speaker 3: plus two eighty nine Orbina inside the distance plus three fifteen.
32:42
Speaker 3: Almost every win Forbina is a finish, they're saying. And
32:46
Speaker 3: to make things even better, there's a clear path. In
32:48
Speaker 3: my opinion, Sepo is a striker Forbina gets the fight
32:51
Speaker 3: on the mat. Orbina is super live for a submission
32:54
Speaker 3: at any time. So I like Herbina a lot, I
32:57
Speaker 3: like Cepo a lot. I'm gonna have a bunch of
32:59
Speaker 3: this fight, what about you?
33:01
Speaker 2: Yeah?
33:02
Speaker 4: I started it out as a four star for Chepo,
33:05
Speaker 4: two star for Urbina, but I changed it to the
33:07
Speaker 4: five because Chepo's gonna be my favorite play on the card.
33:11
Speaker 4: I think he's gonna get a quick win bonus, give
33:13
Speaker 4: me a Chepo knockout in the first forty seconds of
33:17
Speaker 4: this fight. He's just gonna blitz Urbina and he's gonna
33:22
Speaker 4: throw combos with a hell of a lot of power.
33:24
Speaker 5: That I don't think Urbina can handle.
33:27
Speaker 4: So I just I think it's a first round Chepo
33:30
Speaker 4: knockout and he's gonna score over one hundred points. The
33:33
Speaker 4: worry would be that Urbina can weather the storm, and
33:37
Speaker 4: I don't think Erbina will even be able to get
33:39
Speaker 4: takedowns while Checko's fresh in that first minute or two,
33:42
Speaker 4: So I think it would be Urbina weathering that first
33:45
Speaker 4: you know, two minute storm and then getting takedowns. Plus
33:49
Speaker 4: Chepo's starting to slow down. But if that's the case,
33:52
Speaker 4: Urbina has one hundred and ten point upside himself. So
33:55
Speaker 4: I definitely am find in getting Urbina exposure. But I'm
33:59
Speaker 4: gonna be starting to my lineups with Cepo, and then
34:02
Speaker 4: after I get enough chef O exposure to get all
34:04
Speaker 4: the lineups I feel like I like with him, then
34:06
Speaker 4: maybe I'll start some Herbina lineups.
34:08
Speaker 5: To get other favorites in instead.
34:10
Speaker 4: So this is my favorite or second favorite fight on
34:14
Speaker 4: the card to target, I just give me Checko to
34:17
Speaker 4: score one hundred and twenty seven points with that quick
34:20
Speaker 4: win bonus.
34:21
Speaker 3: Man, you're probably wondering, like, how the heck did I
34:23
Speaker 3: go from oli Vera Elliott to Sepo or Beina And
34:27
Speaker 3: I can't even actually answer that fully. I mean, I'm
34:29
Speaker 3: going on fight odds dot io. But even then, I
34:32
Speaker 3: skipped over Ludavi Klein and Musayev. So yeah, and maybe
34:37
Speaker 3: I am going crazy. I appreciate you just rolling with
34:39
Speaker 3: the punches on that one. Maybe I got so excited.
34:42
Speaker 3: It's one of my favorite fights on the card, second
34:44
Speaker 3: highest most likely to finish a minus one thousand, So
34:47
Speaker 3: I apologize. We were just talking about this Sepo or
34:50
Speaker 3: been a fighters you guys probably figured out at some point.
34:53
Speaker 3: But yeah, I skipped two fights, so I like this
34:56
Speaker 3: fight a lot. I will want Ideally it would be
34:58
Speaker 3: overweight Sepo, overweight beIN. I think Urbina is a very
35:01
Speaker 3: good play. I mean, Steph will be one of the
35:03
Speaker 3: most chalky on the slate, almost Oliver Beina's wins will
35:06
Speaker 3: be optimal.
35:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it. I like it a lot for sure.
35:10
Speaker 2: All Right, let's circle back to the right bout order
35:14
Speaker 2: that we're going in Ludavic Klein and to Musaiev. We
35:18
Speaker 2: have minus two fifty five four Kline plus two to
35:21
Speaker 2: eleven from Musayev plus one ten for this fight to
35:24
Speaker 2: finish Kliin plus two to fifteen inside the distance Musaiah
35:27
Speaker 2: plus three fifty. I'll throw it to you right away.
35:30
Speaker 2: What are you doing in this fight?
35:32
Speaker 4: I'm not really sure about this. I'm kind of I'm
35:35
Speaker 4: okay with doing whatever in this fight. I do like
35:38
Speaker 4: Kline as the winner. I just think he's the more
35:40
Speaker 4: talented striker with more tools in his toolbox. Either guy
35:45
Speaker 4: could mix in wrestling. I would give Musayev maybe the
35:49
Speaker 4: the like one punch power edge and then maybe you know,
35:53
Speaker 4: the power wrestling edge as well. But Klein has turned
35:56
Speaker 4: into a decent wrestler himself, so I kind of tossed
36:00
Speaker 4: it up either way. He could land two or three takedowns.
36:02
Speaker 4: Either guy, I mean, could land two or three takedowns.
36:05
Speaker 4: Either guy could get an early knockout. But if this
36:09
Speaker 4: fight goes to a decision, I just don't think either
36:12
Speaker 4: one of them is gonna score well, and then Musaiah
36:14
Speaker 4: would have a better chance of being on the optimal
36:17
Speaker 4: lineup if he were to get his hand raised. So
36:19
Speaker 4: my pick is clined to win. I don't love eighty
36:22
Speaker 4: eight hundred dollars. I would rather go down to Laka
36:25
Speaker 4: for one hundred less or find three hundred to get
36:28
Speaker 4: to Chepo.
36:29
Speaker 5: But I'm okay. I'm not gonna X amount of my line.
36:32
Speaker 4: I'm okay getting climent, especially if I can get him
36:34
Speaker 4: with Lake with the Chefo and then Musaiah. He's probably
36:38
Speaker 4: my favorite underdog that we have talked about so far.
36:42
Speaker 4: I just I think the line might not be widened up.
36:46
Speaker 4: I favor Klin a little bit more than this. I
36:48
Speaker 4: just think he's a better all around fighter. Musaiah, I
36:51
Speaker 4: think is towards the end of his career. We've probably
36:53
Speaker 4: seen the best that he has to offer. And if
36:56
Speaker 4: he's not able to take down Kline multiple times in
36:59
Speaker 4: multiple or just one punch knock him out, I think
37:03
Speaker 4: Klein rolls, especially in rounds two and three. So give
37:06
Speaker 4: me Klein to win twenty nine to twenty eight, probably
37:09
Speaker 4: not score ten X and despite it's probably not on
37:12
Speaker 4: the optimal But I'm okay.
37:14
Speaker 5: Getting exposure to.
37:14
Speaker 2: Either said, you've been Klein wrestles.
37:18
Speaker 4: I doubt it gets more outsaide is a give more
37:21
Speaker 4: than a half a takedown prop. I don't know if
37:24
Speaker 4: i'd go up one and a half, though maybe he's
37:26
Speaker 4: like right at one.
37:28
Speaker 2: Klein's dust.
37:29
Speaker 3: If that's the case, I mean, eighty eight hundred money
37:32
Speaker 3: lines not great inside the distance plus two to fifteen's
37:35
Speaker 3: bad relative to do others in the range. Plus five
37:37
Speaker 3: hundred round one's bad relative to the others in the range.
37:41
Speaker 3: He's not wrestling. I think he's stone dust. So I
37:44
Speaker 3: don't like Klein. Musaia might prefer play just naturally for that,
37:48
Speaker 3: but I think he loses. I think it goes the distance.
37:51
Speaker 3: Musaia had seventy four hundreds. Fine, but that's about all
37:54
Speaker 3: I have to say in this one. This is probably
37:56
Speaker 3: my least favorite fight on the card in terms for DFS.
38:00
Speaker 3: All right, next fight on the card, we let me
38:03
Speaker 3: make sure actually I'm going in the right order. All right,
38:06
Speaker 3: we have really good fights. Let me find it on. Yeah,
38:11
Speaker 3: it's all the way down here. We have Noah Gunan
38:14
Speaker 3: and Melos Jancic. We have Guan the favorite at Yeah, Okay,
38:21
Speaker 3: the cheaper fighter by two hundred, the favorite at minus
38:23
Speaker 3: one thirteen. I'm just gonna call him by their first name,
38:26
Speaker 3: Melos minus one oh seven minus three twenty five. For
38:28
Speaker 3: this fight to finish, we have Milos at plus one
38:33
Speaker 3: twenty inside the distance and Noah at plus one sixty
38:37
Speaker 3: run one props plus.
38:38
Speaker 2: Three hundred four.
38:39
Speaker 3: Noah, Man, I'm getting all these names confused. Milos is
38:45
Speaker 3: plus three hundred inside the distance, Noah is plus three fifty.
38:50
Speaker 3: So I mean it's a really close lee line fight,
38:53
Speaker 3: but it wasn't at open. So Melos opened minus five
38:58
Speaker 3: hundred in this one, and then six minutes later was
39:01
Speaker 3: minus one fifty and then slowly but surely Noah continued
39:04
Speaker 3: to take money, but this opener was way way off
39:08
Speaker 3: minus three twenty five inside the distance. For this fight
39:11
Speaker 3: to finish, both guys making their UFC debut. I think
39:14
Speaker 3: this is gonna be a very fun fight. You can
39:16
Speaker 3: see that by just the inside the distance props alone
39:18
Speaker 3: plus one sixty and plus one twenty right there in
39:21
Speaker 3: the mid tier at eighty two hundred and eight, K,
39:24
Speaker 3: I think you just absolutely load up on this fight.
39:27
Speaker 2: Don't have a strong lean on who wins. I hope
39:29
Speaker 2: you do.
39:30
Speaker 3: But I'm just gonna play a lot of both and
39:32
Speaker 3: hope it's optimal. What about you, Yeah, I'm the same.
39:35
Speaker 3: I really don't have a strong lean either way. I
39:38
Speaker 3: picked Jenks or Janichich to win. I just feel like
39:42
Speaker 3: he's a little bit more well rounded, but both of
39:44
Speaker 3: these guys have finished all of their wins. There's gonna
39:48
Speaker 3: be I think it's an action packed fight where either
39:51
Speaker 3: side is gonna have a decent chance at scoring one
39:54
Speaker 3: hundred points and right at eight k that we're gonna
39:57
Speaker 3: need that. So I feel like I'm just gonna be
40:01
Speaker 3: throwing a lot of money into the pot in this one.
40:02
Speaker 3: Give me like forty percent of each I want to
40:05
Speaker 3: load up on this fight. I just don't know who's
40:08
Speaker 3: gonna win. I would imagine I'll end up with more
40:11
Speaker 3: gug Non because he's two hundred dollars cheaper and that
40:13
Speaker 3: can fit a couple more lineups that I won't be
40:16
Speaker 3: able to get with Janiiciic. But I'm just gonna look
40:19
Speaker 3: at this as a fight I want to target rather
40:22
Speaker 3: than a fighter. I want to target, and I'll load
40:25
Speaker 3: up as much as I can. If if ownership was
40:31
Speaker 3: skewed one way or another that would change my mind.
40:33
Speaker 5: I would rather have the lower on guy.
40:36
Speaker 4: That would be the one thing that could really sway
40:38
Speaker 4: me would be ownership.
40:39
Speaker 5: But I think it's gonna be pretty close.
40:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with everything you said right there.
40:43
Speaker 3: I prefer right now. Again, I don't have a strong
40:46
Speaker 3: lean on the winner by any means. So when that's
40:48
Speaker 3: the case, give me the fighter. That's two hundred less
40:50
Speaker 3: since I can build any Melo's team, drop Milos and
40:52
Speaker 3: go down to Noah, forcing myself to leave two undred plus.
40:55
Speaker 3: With that being said, if the ownership was like thirty
40:58
Speaker 3: five versus twenty five, I would take the ten percent
41:01
Speaker 3: discount that way.
41:02
Speaker 2: So totally agree with you. I think it's a great fight.
41:05
Speaker 3: I think someone is getting finished, and I think whoever
41:07
Speaker 3: does win score as well. So I will have a
41:09
Speaker 3: bunch at eighty two hundred and eight. K Now we're
41:13
Speaker 3: back on track. Already talked about the SEPO fights. Four
41:16
Speaker 3: fights left on the card, Robert Valentine and Dusco Todorovich
41:21
Speaker 3: Valentine minus let me find this minus one sixty Dusco
41:27
Speaker 3: plus one forty minus four hundred for this fight to finish.
41:30
Speaker 3: Valentine minus one twenty inside the distance Dusco plus two hundred.
41:35
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie.
41:36
Speaker 3: I was a little surprised and to see this fight
41:39
Speaker 3: for Valentine being the favorite, so he was minus one thirty.
41:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess it stood around there. I don't know.
41:45
Speaker 2: I can't figure out why it gots like minus two
41:48
Speaker 2: twenty five for one second but minus one thirty and
41:51
Speaker 2: he's slowly taking money throughout the week. I just don't
41:56
Speaker 2: really understand. Man.
41:57
Speaker 3: Like I guess I'm not really too impressed with Valentine,
42:01
Speaker 3: but and Dousco, I mean, he's a punching bag. He's
42:04
Speaker 3: got a big nogg in. He's defensively irresponsible. With that
42:08
Speaker 3: being said, though, like he can grapple, he can strike,
42:11
Speaker 3: He's fought in the UFC plenty of times. I just
42:15
Speaker 3: don't get why he's a plus one to forty dog.
42:16
Speaker 3: I mean, tell me what I'm missing in this one.
42:20
Speaker 4: Just really his durability and Valentine's finishing ability. I think
42:27
Speaker 4: Valentine could choke him out or knock him out in
42:29
Speaker 4: the first round, and he's on the optimal lineup, and
42:32
Speaker 4: I think if this fight ends in the first round,
42:35
Speaker 4: Valentine's getting his hand raised, but I think Tadorovich is
42:39
Speaker 4: the better minute winner in this one, so if he
42:40
Speaker 4: can avoid getting finished in the first round, the longer
42:43
Speaker 4: it goes, I think the harder it'll be for Valentine
42:46
Speaker 4: to get the finish. And I picked Tadorovitch to win
42:50
Speaker 4: a decision he could also knock out Valentine. He is
42:53
Speaker 4: a pretty decent striker offensively, I just worry about him defensively.
42:57
Speaker 4: So I started this four stars to Doroovich, two stars
43:02
Speaker 4: Valentine because I'm picking the underdog to win.
43:04
Speaker 5: That's typically how I do it.
43:05
Speaker 4: But if Tadorovitch wins, I think he could score seventy points,
43:09
Speaker 4: but if Valentine wins, I think it's probably more than
43:12
Speaker 4: ninety points. So I put it for three and three
43:14
Speaker 4: for that reason, and he is only eighty five hundred dollars.
43:17
Speaker 4: I like that price tag for all these favorites, so
43:20
Speaker 4: I have it as a three and three because I'm okay,
43:22
Speaker 4: just kind of donating to the pot again on this fight,
43:25
Speaker 4: getting both sides of it. But since I haven't really
43:29
Speaker 4: loved too many underdogs yet, now's the point we're gonna
43:32
Speaker 4: start getting to my guys.
43:33
Speaker 5: Doorvic is gonna be an overweight play for me.
43:36
Speaker 4: We got a couple others coming up as well.
43:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I don't want to get it twisted.
43:41
Speaker 3: Like, even though I disagree with the money line, I
43:43
Speaker 3: am playing Valentine because when he does win, Dusco is
43:46
Speaker 3: probably getting knocked out or submitted or something. And only
43:49
Speaker 3: eighty five hundred for Valentine in a fight minus four
43:51
Speaker 3: hundred to finish is obviously good. I mean his run
43:54
Speaker 3: one prop also good. Plus two hundred opened, Actually, where
43:59
Speaker 3: is there there? Yeah, it's plus two hundred now. He
44:01
Speaker 3: opened plus two to twenty five in Roun one, which
44:03
Speaker 3: is actually pretty good as well. Duskec go and run
44:06
Speaker 3: one those plus four to twenty five, Like, that's good
44:08
Speaker 3: for seventy seven hundred. Dusco's my preferred plays, my pick
44:11
Speaker 3: to win. I like that he's eight hundred cheaper, but
44:14
Speaker 3: I do like Valentine again, mid tiers strong in this fight.
44:17
Speaker 3: This fight, the Milosnoah fight that we talked about, and
44:22
Speaker 3: then Nikolak Vagden.
44:24
Speaker 2: I think is a pretty solid mid tier fight as well.
44:26
Speaker 3: So yeah, I will probably be having at least one
44:30
Speaker 3: of those fights in majority of my teams. If I
44:33
Speaker 3: had all three in the mid tier. I'd also be
44:35
Speaker 3: good with that as well. Three fights left before we
44:39
Speaker 3: go talk about the three. Let's head overdoor ship at
44:41
Speaker 3: Nation homepage. Look at this beauty as you can see
44:44
Speaker 3: right here with the banner usually ninety nine dollars for
44:47
Speaker 3: our all access special which gets you Sabersimp discord and
44:50
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44:53
Speaker 3: dollars for the first month. All you gotta do is
44:55
Speaker 3: click that banner bottom left Join the Nation. You can
44:57
Speaker 3: see multiple other options as well. Five days, four nineteen
45:01
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45:05
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45:10
Speaker 3: you can see single sport options as well. If you
45:13
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45:16
Speaker 3: a month forty nine dollars a month. If you do
45:19
Speaker 3: add Sabersim, we definitely would love to have you over here.
45:23
Speaker 3: Join the Nation again is how you get in. Definitely
45:25
Speaker 3: do get in the discord if you do, join the
45:27
Speaker 3: best MMA community around, no doubt about that. Three fights
45:32
Speaker 3: left thus, second of two heavyweight fights, Alexander Rakitch taking
45:38
Speaker 3: on Marcine at Tybera minus three fifty rackets plus two
45:42
Speaker 3: to eighty for Tybera, minus one fifty five for this
45:45
Speaker 3: fight to finish rackets minus one twenty inside the distance
45:48
Speaker 3: Tybera plus six twenty five racketch in round one plus
45:52
Speaker 3: two to fifty, so it opened plus three hundred round
45:55
Speaker 3: one for rackets now plus two to fifty he opened,
45:57
Speaker 3: plus one twenty five inside the distance now minus one twenty.
46:01
Speaker 3: He opened minus two fifty on the money line now
46:04
Speaker 3: minus three point fifty. That's a lot of line movement
46:07
Speaker 3: coming in on rackats and all three different props. The
46:10
Speaker 3: problem with Rakach is the dude just never does anything
46:14
Speaker 3: like he's good. He's talented, but he won't wrestle. He'll
46:17
Speaker 3: stay on the outside jab like kick. I mean, typer
46:22
Speaker 3: is forty years old. I shouldn't call him fat, but
46:25
Speaker 3: he's a little a little chunk here. He definitely has
46:28
Speaker 3: no six pack or anything. You see Racktch and Tybura
46:30
Speaker 3: in a bar, you're gonna be picking Rackach. I think
46:33
Speaker 3: he should own Typera. It's just is he gonna come
46:36
Speaker 3: out aggressive? Is the question?
46:37
Speaker 5: Now?
46:38
Speaker 3: I go based on line movement A lot I go
46:40
Speaker 3: based on odds plus two to fifty in round ones
46:43
Speaker 3: twenty eight point six percent. I do not see Rakach
46:46
Speaker 3: being twenty eight percent or greater, so I guess naturally
46:49
Speaker 3: by default, I'm probably gonna be overweight Rackatch, even though
46:53
Speaker 3: it doesn't feel too comfortable knowing his past.
46:56
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, how do you see this fight going?
46:58
Speaker 5: Yeah?
46:59
Speaker 4: I Thinkage is much more talented. He's the much slicker striker,
47:05
Speaker 4: but he's coming up to heavyweight. Who knows how he's
47:07
Speaker 4: gonna look there. He's got chin issues. Ty board is
47:11
Speaker 4: gonna be bigger. He's a decent striker himself, and I
47:14
Speaker 4: think that ty Bora would have the wrestling advantage of
47:18
Speaker 4: this fight too, as the heavier guy. So I think
47:21
Speaker 4: that it's Rackage first round or bust. At ninety three
47:26
Speaker 4: hundred dollars. I just don't see him working takedowns against
47:29
Speaker 4: ty Borra, and I think if this fight makes it
47:32
Speaker 4: out of the first round, it's gonna be hard for
47:34
Speaker 4: him to pay off that ninety three hundred dollars price
47:37
Speaker 4: tag and beat all the other high favorites that we
47:40
Speaker 4: want to get in our lineup. So I'm okay getting
47:43
Speaker 4: Rackaged for that first round knockout. Equity, but my preferred
47:46
Speaker 4: play is ty Bora. He's only sixty nine hundred dollars.
47:50
Speaker 4: I think that he could win minutes, really all three
47:52
Speaker 4: rounds if he wants to.
47:53
Speaker 5: I think the striking could be close.
47:55
Speaker 4: He's not as fast as Rackage, he's not as skilled,
47:59
Speaker 4: but Rackage does not always show up and he's not
48:02
Speaker 4: an active fighter a lot of the times in the cage.
48:04
Speaker 4: So I think time Wor can keep it close minute
48:06
Speaker 4: wise on the feet. And I think he can look
48:08
Speaker 4: even better if you were to look for takedowns and
48:11
Speaker 4: keep a lot of heavy top control time in this fight.
48:13
Speaker 4: So Tybora sixty nine hundred dollars. He is my preferred play.
48:18
Speaker 4: But I put it as a three and three again,
48:19
Speaker 4: same reason as the last one. I think if it's
48:21
Speaker 4: a first round knockout, it is Ratchet Rackage, But if
48:25
Speaker 4: it's a decision, I think the underdog has a much
48:28
Speaker 4: better chance at being on the optimal line.
48:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely agree with that.
48:32
Speaker 3: I still think Rackage is my preferred play since I
48:34
Speaker 3: just think he I don't see him losing to Tibura,
48:37
Speaker 3: but the odds of the odds.
48:39
Speaker 2: I trust him a lot of that.
48:40
Speaker 3: Again, has to do with rackets, getting a lot of
48:42
Speaker 3: line movement on every different angle. And again plus two
48:46
Speaker 3: three fifty down to plus two to fifty in round one.
48:48
Speaker 3: That's a good amount of line movements. And I do
48:51
Speaker 3: not see him being twenty eight percent, more like twenty percent.
48:54
Speaker 3: So and that's the case, you're able to play more
48:55
Speaker 3: chalk around it. That's a way to get difference. Yeah,
48:59
Speaker 3: it's akin if I could plug your nose type of play.
49:01
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna be playing rackage. I'll play some type
49:04
Speaker 3: of though. At sixty nine hundred as well. Two fights
49:08
Speaker 3: left co main event time Nava Ho Sterling minus three
49:11
Speaker 3: ten Yanvohovich plus two fifty two plus one forty for
49:15
Speaker 3: this fight to finish, Navajo plus one seventy inside the
49:18
Speaker 3: distance Yon plus five point fifty Navajo in round one
49:21
Speaker 3: plus four hundred and will you just say those those
49:25
Speaker 3: odds and everything plus one forty for this fight to finish,
49:28
Speaker 3: Garbage plus five hundred or U plus four hundred to
49:33
Speaker 3: run one for Navajo. Garbage like he's a striker, as
49:38
Speaker 3: you can see, as a high volume striker. Yan's forty
49:41
Speaker 3: three years old. But I will say he's he's better
49:44
Speaker 3: than a lot of forty three year olds. I mean,
49:46
Speaker 3: it's easier when you're up in the light heavyweights and heavyweights,
49:49
Speaker 3: where the fast twitch, your reaction time means a lot
49:52
Speaker 3: less your cardio and all that.
49:54
Speaker 2: He can hold his own the Polish powers.
49:57
Speaker 3: So I think Navajo probably wins a decision, and if
50:00
Speaker 3: he wins a decision, he is not going to get
50:01
Speaker 3: there at nine K. So I guess by defaulty On
50:04
Speaker 3: Bohovi's is my preferred play. I don't like this fight though,
50:07
Speaker 3: maybe this is my least favorite fight.
50:10
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have it as a three star, but I'd
50:11
Speaker 4: be okay with it being a two star because I
50:14
Speaker 4: am picking Sterling to win a decision. I just think
50:17
Speaker 4: he is the better striker. He's going to be faster.
50:20
Speaker 4: I think he at this point he's fifteen years younger.
50:22
Speaker 4: He probably has more power and durability as well. But
50:26
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm really never looking to play forty three
50:29
Speaker 4: year olds, but at seventy two hundred dollars, I'm alright
50:31
Speaker 4: getting a little bit of black wits. I think he
50:33
Speaker 4: could mix in takedowns in this fight. That is where
50:35
Speaker 4: he would be winning minutes. But the Polish power is
50:39
Speaker 4: still going to be there. He could knock him out
50:40
Speaker 4: and have a one hundred points potential that way, So I'm
50:43
Speaker 4: not going to ex out Blackwitch.
50:45
Speaker 5: I like him. I like him more than Mazuka.
50:49
Speaker 2: Mazuka is gonna win. You better change your mind.
50:52
Speaker 5: On that wins man.
50:55
Speaker 4: But at the same time, I think Sterling could knock
50:58
Speaker 4: out Yahn in any round and possibly end up on
51:01
Speaker 4: the appoles, so I'm not gonna x him out either.
51:03
Speaker 4: I'm okay getting a little bit, but there's guys I'd
51:06
Speaker 4: rather pay less for than get up to Sterling, So
51:09
Speaker 4: I have a feeling this will be mostly a fade
51:11
Speaker 4: fight for me. I think Sterling wins, probably scores seventy
51:15
Speaker 4: five to eighty points and doesn't cut it.
51:18
Speaker 2: Yep.
51:18
Speaker 3: I think this fight bus as well. All right, main
51:20
Speaker 3: event time, this one should be pretty fun. I'm excited
51:24
Speaker 3: euros Metic taking on Daniel Rodriguez minus fun four hundred
51:28
Speaker 3: Metach plus three to fifteen is d Rod minus fifteen
51:32
Speaker 3: hundred for this fight to finish, minus three seventy five
51:34
Speaker 3: inside the distance for Medach plus three seventy five inside
51:37
Speaker 3: the distance ford Rod minus one fifteen inside or.
51:40
Speaker 2: In round one for euros Medic.
51:44
Speaker 3: I mean I guess I'll First of all, d Rod,
51:47
Speaker 3: I mean I don't necessarily, I guess believe his story
51:50
Speaker 3: so he would it went to jail in Mexico, he
51:52
Speaker 3: crossed the border with twenty seven grams of marijuana, and
51:56
Speaker 3: he just said he completely forgot about it.
51:58
Speaker 2: Like I know, you and I have.
51:59
Speaker 3: Definitely smoked a fair amount in our day, and so
52:03
Speaker 3: is de Rod and plenty of other people. But I'm
52:05
Speaker 3: not sure you just randomly forget twenty seven grams on you. Hey,
52:09
Speaker 3: with that being said, who knows eight months in the
52:12
Speaker 3: Mexican prison he was released.
52:15
Speaker 2: Think Kevin Holland bail him out? Right? Was that a
52:18
Speaker 2: true story?
52:18
Speaker 5: I feel like, yeah, I feel like I did see
52:20
Speaker 5: something like that.
52:20
Speaker 3: I think he wanted to like rematch him or something
52:22
Speaker 3: after that, and he bailed him out.
52:24
Speaker 2: I don't know.
52:24
Speaker 3: Just absolutely crazy. But with all this being said, it's
52:27
Speaker 3: a thirty nine year old d Rod in a thirty
52:29
Speaker 3: three year old meticch. You have more stars to Derod,
52:32
Speaker 3: So it sounds like you're picking them. I definitely am not,
52:35
Speaker 3: but yeah, I'm all ears take it away.
52:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, the line sold me on this one, and I
52:40
Speaker 4: also started this one. Three stars for each fighter similar
52:44
Speaker 4: reasons as the other ones. Medic has a lot more
52:47
Speaker 4: early finishing potential. He is the faster fighter, the more
52:51
Speaker 4: splosive fighter. He's dangerous, he's really nasty offensively, but he's
52:57
Speaker 4: just one of those guys that can fall apart. The
52:59
Speaker 4: longer the fight goes, the more I expect him to
53:01
Speaker 4: fall apart. And d Rod is gonna be the better boxer.
53:04
Speaker 4: He can keep up a pace I think for all
53:06
Speaker 4: five rounds, even at thirty nine years old coming out
53:09
Speaker 4: of prison. I'm sure they got some good steroids in
53:12
Speaker 4: Mexican prison to go out with you. So I just
53:15
Speaker 4: think the line's a little bit too wide. I don't
53:17
Speaker 4: trust Metic at minus four hundred against anybody, especially anybody
53:21
Speaker 4: who just beat Holland not too long ago, so I
53:25
Speaker 4: think the line should be a little bit closer. If
53:28
Speaker 4: d Rod does win, I would imagine it's a late
53:30
Speaker 4: TKO and he's absolutely on the optimal lineup if he
53:33
Speaker 4: gets his hand raised. So I'm picking d Rod at
53:36
Speaker 4: sixty eight hundred dollars. He's gonna be my most owned
53:40
Speaker 4: underdog on the card, and that's what's gonna help me
53:42
Speaker 4: afore all the favorites that I really want. That's why
53:44
Speaker 4: I don't need to get all these other underdogs that
53:46
Speaker 4: I I said I'm gonna pass on. So for me,
53:48
Speaker 4: it's gonna be Rodriguez and ty Bora are my chief plays,
53:52
Speaker 4: and then if I if I don't have them, it's
53:54
Speaker 4: gonna be a lot of mid range.
53:56
Speaker 5: Lineups for me. And that's kind of how my my
53:59
Speaker 5: slay will go. I'm not going to have one hundred
54:00
Speaker 5: and fifty on.
54:01
Speaker 4: This line on this late I'll probably have more like
54:04
Speaker 4: ten or twenty, and I'll stick to a tighter corp
54:07
Speaker 4: if possible. But I'll be hoping d Rod pulls it off,
54:10
Speaker 4: and uh hopefully I'll be on a ship of my
54:13
Speaker 4: own IF's case.
54:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not going to be on your ship, if
54:16
Speaker 3: your ship, unless I get lucky. I build over here
54:20
Speaker 3: with Sabersim, put in our stuff, play a lot of
54:22
Speaker 3: lineups and diversify in a high varian sport like this,
54:25
Speaker 3: so it's possible.
54:26
Speaker 2: I'm not exing out de Rod or anything.
54:28
Speaker 3: But if I'm on the winner and you see ty
54:30
Speaker 3: Burra and d Rod and all this, it was one
54:32
Speaker 3: of these lucky lineups that I will not take any
54:35
Speaker 3: credit for because I'm definitely on the meta side. Yeah,
54:38
Speaker 3: De Rod, he's gonna be owned because he's a main
54:41
Speaker 3: event dog. How owned, I guess we'll see more than
54:44
Speaker 3: likely I'll probably be underweight, but I do agree if
54:46
Speaker 3: he does win, he almost surely is optimal with the
54:48
Speaker 3: high volume that he is. But I think he gets
54:51
Speaker 3: starched in the first or the second round is not optimal.
54:54
Speaker 3: And then it comes down to Mantach ninety four hundred.
54:56
Speaker 3: He could score one oh six and that not be enough,
54:58
Speaker 3: So I do like medical, but he's gonna naturally get
55:01
Speaker 3: five round ownership boost, and I think there's plenty of
55:04
Speaker 3: other nine K fighters around him that have just as
55:07
Speaker 3: much upside. Even if Metis does score one oh six,
55:10
Speaker 3: So another main event you can definitely fade. And that's
55:14
Speaker 3: mainly again because Matta's ninety four hundred one oh seven
55:17
Speaker 3: might not be enough. D Rod wins almost surely optimal.
55:21
Speaker 3: That's all fourteen fights. I'm definitely excited for this one.
55:24
Speaker 3: Wake up Saturday morning, grab a coffee, whatever you may do.
55:28
Speaker 3: Fourteen fights of islands in Serbia, one hundre k up
55:32
Speaker 3: top like always always talking, always good talking fights with you,
55:35
Speaker 3: Big Marley again. We will be live again next Wednesday.
55:38
Speaker 3: Some mark your calendars for that. But final thoughts, Yeah, I.
55:42
Speaker 4: Feel like I ended this one with a lot of
55:44
Speaker 4: hot takes. Maybe we won't have as many hot takes
55:46
Speaker 4: as next week. But my final thought is, please don't win.
55:50
Speaker 5: Bazooka. Have a good luck to you title, good luck
55:52
Speaker 5: to everybody listening.
55:53
Speaker 2: Let's ship it, good luck everybody. Hope y'all have a
55:56
Speaker 2: great weekend. Be safe, get some extra little cheese in
55:59
Speaker 2: your pocket again. We would love to have you at
56:02
Speaker 2: the Nation. Multiple different options, hond on over, that's gonna
56:07
Speaker 2: do it for us. For my man, Big Marley, I'm
56:09
Speaker 2: titled Town. Good Luck, be safe,