Latest / The Curve / The Economic Impact of the LA Wildfires.

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The Economic Impact of the LA Wildfires. · The Curve

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all of the money
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  business in stock market too.
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  Brought to you by the Curve's research team, the latest insights on what's happening in
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  the stock market, companies, other money related news so that you can stay educated and
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  ahead of the curve.
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  You can thank us later for sounding smarter than those finance bros at your next time party.
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  If you've been following social media at all recently, you will know that the LA fires
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  have had such a significant impact, not only physically, emotionally, but financially
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  on the US and the world.
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  So we're going to go through some of the numbers, why you need to be across that, what are
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  the financial impacts, why insurance is so incredibly important, and how you can vote with your
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  wallet by investing in companies that are having a positive impact on the environment so
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  we can prevent the increased frequency of these disasters.
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  Oh my God, I'm coming home.
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  This is my last six hours in New York.
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  I'm excited, I miss you.
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  I know, I'm actually excited to come home too.
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  I'm doing the 18 hour air New Zealand flight, like the direct one.
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  I know, and I love how we just, I just overheard you talking about Editarnia.
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  I'm going to be flying for two days, so I'm like, I'll take two days from New York
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  golf.
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  I'm just pre-empting my horrendous jet lag, if I'm being honest, like I'm a bit stressed
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  out about how out of it I'm going to be.
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  Yeah, my Christmas, I arrive Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, everyone's like, hi,
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  you're back, I was like, and no, and I was just like a walking zombie, I feel so great.
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  I love being home, all I want to do is sleep.
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  Yeah, I'm staying with some family friends in New York, and the first night I got here,
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  they like really, sweetly organised this dinner with other New Zealanders.
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  And I was just like, honestly, you know, when you're trying to fight back a yawn, and
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  you're like nostrils are sort of flaring, and you're like, eyes are setting to close,
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  and like, I was just like, this is like trying to fight yawn.
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  Or the whole like, yawn in your mouth?
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  Yeah, it was, I was like, it got to dessert, and I was like, I'm really sorry, like I'm
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  just going to have to go to bed, like I'm going to have to miss the carrot cake, I just
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  can't.
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  I was the Grinch on Christmas, I was like, look, we're just going to have to wrap this
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  up and go.
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  And I was like, I am, I'm about, my eyes, I cannot keep my eyes open.
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  Everyone's getting stuck into the dessert line, and I'm like, sorry guys, I think it's
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  over.
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  Yeah.
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  Oh no, excited for you to have come home.
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  Me too.
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  Do you know what has been really cool being a New York Vic?
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  I have been really noticing massive brands and billboards and buildings of listed companies.
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  I know that sounds kind of strange, but like, I was up there in Pirate State Building
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  yesterday, which was so cool.
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  And I walked over Brooklyn Bridge and I was just like, oh my goodness, this is so epic.
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  But on all the massive skyscrapers are like the logos of like H&M, sales force, like,
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  you know, all the massive brands that are like top companies that are listed in the US.
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  I was just kind of seeing them all, like I don't think I would have ever noticed that
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  before or paid any attention to it, but I was like, ah, there's that.
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  And even just I noticed, for example, H&M, like this giant building, like huge, I noticed
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  myself thinking, if they can afford to be in that giant building in the middle of Manhattan
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  with a giant sign on the top, this is H&M, they must be doing okay.
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  Yeah.
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  You know, like it was things like that that I said, thinking I was like, it's so interesting
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  and I went, when I was up the Empire State Building, there was like a big sign.
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  You can buy a part of the Empire State Building, like it's a listed company.
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  And just things like that, I would never have noticed before.
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  And I think it was just this newfound, like respect or like awe about New York in general,
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  about the New York Stock Exchange, about, did you go to Wall Street?
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  No, I didn't.
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  I know.
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  It's right down the bottom.
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  I really wanted to go and I thought it would be so funny to do like a Vox Pop recordings
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  with guys who work in the area and be like, what's the stock?
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  Please tell me what the stock market is, but I didn't have any like friends or anyone
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  to help me film it.
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  There's a picture of me when I was little, I went there when I was probably like while
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  we were 13 and there's a picture of me with the bull on Wall Street, there's a big,
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  there's a big kind of massive bull right in the middle of Wall Street.
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  And I thought it was so funny to climb under and hold, it's like, oh my God.
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  I think we're sitting there like laughing and I'm like, wow, but I was just like found
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  it so funny.
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  This is giant bull and it's giant parts.
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  Oh my God.
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  So bad.
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  It's just like, up here it's like, here we are trying to bring them all the way to New York
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  to be cultured and that's what they do.
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  But yeah, quite funny.
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  I've decided New York is really cool and it's also way less intense than everyone was
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  like, oh New York, it's so intense, I reckon London's so much busier, like so much busier.
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  We were on a call the other day and I was like, so how's New York in a face that up?
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  She's like, I love it.
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  Oh my gosh.
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  And I was like, I have seen this face before and a few years later, we had London office
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  and I was like, I mean, I'm all foreign New York office but it's conquering one global
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  city at a time.
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  Please.
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  Don't get any smart ideas.
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  Yeah.
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  No, but I have been recording a whole lot of podcast episodes over here with some really
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  amazing woman.
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  So I'm quite excited for those to come out.
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  Yeah.
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  Same.
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  It's been real cool.
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  Well I had a very chill weekend and was at the beach, which was really, really nice.
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  And one thing that I was so, oh, it just lit me up was on the drive down two of my friends
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  who don't really invest, to be honest, were like, you know, this is the year to invest.
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  And pretty much the whole car trip down, it's like a three hour drive from Auckland.
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  We were talking about what stocks would invest in.
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  And I just remember sitting there looking out the window going, oh my goodness.
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  Like this chat would never have happened like last year or, I don't know, it was just
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  like really cool to have those conversations and kind of be debating each other and yeah,
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  it was really cool.
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  Yeah.
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  That is awesome.
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  I wonder if they feel pressured to talk about stocks around you.
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  Yeah, I know.
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  You know, I wonder if they're like, the only thing Vic's interested in talking about is
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  finance and money.
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  I know.
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  Am I that boring person?
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  They're like, oh, get out of the car.
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  Can't wait to those car trips over.
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  Did you tell them to just actually join the invest in club and then they're not allowed
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  access to you and your great ideas unless you join the club?
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  My brain, my brain is only for invest in club students.
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  But no, one friend's not drinking and she's putting that money that she usually spends
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  on drinks into her shesies, which is quite important.
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  Ah, it's such a good idea.
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  It's such a good idea to motivate yourself with when you do good behaviour, and we spoke
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  about this last year, whether it's like going to the gym, going for a not spending money
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  on whatever and then transferring it straight into your investing account, like I think it's
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  such a great way to give yourself the motivation to keep doing whatever behaviour you're trying
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  to reinforce.
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  Yeah.
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  Rather than when you don't do something, you transfer money, you know, it's almost reinforcing
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  the positive behaviour, not the negative behaviour, because it's really, really.
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  Yeah, every time I eat healthy, every time I go for a walk, every time I eat, yeah.
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  Mmm.
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  Yeah.
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  But moving on to find its news, we're going to start with...
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  Oh, gosh.
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  I just, this is so sad to talk about as I am.
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  I know.
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  I've been watching it on Fold on social media and it's just, it's consumed by newsfeed.
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  And fear enough, it is one of the most deadly wildfires in New Year's history.
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  And it's, I mean, it's still going on, the numbers are still coming through, but it looks
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  like it's going to be the one of the biggest disasters as well in natural disasters in
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  US history.
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  So the scale of it, like I've been looking at maps and like everything, just trying to
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  comprehend the scale of it, and I mean, I've been to LA a long, long time ago, but talking
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  to friends that live there or that have been there and just like, they're just saying
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  how, how massive it is in the destruction, the, the lives that have been lost all of
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  that.
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  And I thought, I really want to kind of run through some of the numbers.
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  I mean, they are changing every day, but I just want to run through some of the numbers
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  so that we can see the impact essentially and how that impacts the financial world and,
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  I guess, your, yourself personally.
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  This conversation's important on many, on many levels, but I was having a drink with
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  Maggie Palmer, who we've had on the podcast before and I recorded like another conversation
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  with her.
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  If you want to listen to her first one, it's a really good one for the start of the year.
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  It's raising the curve 60, how do you get a pay rise?
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  She lives over here in the States and she has a house that has recently, it wasn't in
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  the fires, but it's had like a, they've had to make a massive insurance claim essentially
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  because of something that happened, you know, like $500,000 potentially lost through what's
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  happened to her.
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  And we were just discussing like the LA fires, what's happened with her house, like just
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  the importance of understanding your insurance policies, having insurance policies, the, the
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  fine print, like knowing, like for her, she's like, we won't even get half of it covered.
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  And that's from like really fighting tooth and now with the insurance company, people
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  who are having to leave their homes and everything they're even on, like that is tragic.
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  But also the reality that we are in a world where natural disasters are just going to be
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  happening more and more and more with climate change, we need to be prepared financially
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  as well as everything else to make sure we're protecting ourselves because the reality
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  is just this is going to become, unfortunately, quite normal and just like reading what
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  you'd written in the Curve Weekly newsletter.
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  The last thing you think about is the finances, right?
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  Because people first, people and planner and like all of that, but I just had no idea
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  the magnitude of the financial impact.
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  Yeah, I'll get onto the insurance thing.
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  It's so important and it's important to regularly check as well because for myself, I bought
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  my house seven years ago, the values changed, what I've bought and what is in that house
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  has now changed.
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  It's kind of putting a reminder in your calendar to do almost like a yearly audit of like,
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  okay, is this expensive couch that I bought insured?
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  Is my car still insured?
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  Is my, all these things just like making sure that the policies haven't changed or anything
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  like that?
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  Like I remember when, and this is not even anywhere near what these people have been through,
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  but when my phone got stolen in Paris last year and I was like, oh, I've gotten insurance
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  at the time.
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  I didn't read the small print and it was like, if anything over, I think it was $700
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  you needed to have like an exception to make that covered.
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  I was still $700 so I was fine with that but it wasn't the full repurchase amount and
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  I was like, imagine that, but on everything in your house.
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  Let alone the emotional trauma of losing your home for these people, your entire life
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  savings, you're probably your biggest asset.
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  It's like kind of incomprehensible isn't it?
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  We've been a whole lot of like saving for a hot, well most of us saving and having the
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  ability to buy a house and providing that security, building a home and an environment that
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  you enjoy and that people can raise families in if they want to and then to get that taken
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  away and I remember watching an interview with someone and they were like, I feel like
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  a ghost.
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  I don't have any photos, I don't have any belongings.
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  You would.
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  You'd be like, I don't have my passport, I don't have my birth certificate, I've lost
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  everything.
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  It's so scary and it's just like, yeah, it's pretty heartbreaking.
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  I think one of the things that you wrote in the newsletter as well is and it's so true
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  natural disasters don't discriminate.
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  It has nothing to do with your socioeconomic status, how big and beautiful your house is
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  like there were giant beautiful mansions completely destroyed and you know like lower middle
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  class family homes that had a huge amount of people living in them.
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  It's kind of out of our control and I think that the most that you can do to control your
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  own personal situation is making sure that you've got things like insurance that you
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  read, the fine print that you understand and honestly if you hate contracts or anything
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  like that which I'm terrible at reading the fine print like so bad, use chatgbt like dump
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  everything and to chatgbt and get it to pull out like if in this case what would happen.
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  If you get to a position where you're struggling to pay your insurance, pick up the phone and
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  call your insurance provider, don't just let it lapse, don't just miss payments because
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  they don't automatically cancel.
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  This has just happened to me with my health insurance.
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  I had the wrong details and they canceled it and I had no idea and I was like oh and
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  that's been something will probably happen and you'll think you're insured and you're
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  not.
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  You'd be surprised how I guess accommodating some big financial institutions can be whether
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  it's a bank and it's your mortgage that you want to pour as if it's an insurance company
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  you can also shop around like there's there is alternative solutions rather than just
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  being a color for it and letting it lapse.
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  I also think that changing your perspective on insurance is like a luxury or a boring
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  thing or whatever.
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  It's like you should be an essential, it's a bill, it's something that you just need
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  to pay.
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  Yeah protecting your wealth is just as important as growing your wealth.
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  There's no point in growing it and if you're not protecting it.
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  Should we move into some of the numbers Vic?
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  Yes, okay so 10, so that's the number of days that LA has been burning.
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  Now by the time this podcast comes out, it's probably going to be higher.
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  25 is the number of people that have died.
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  12,000 is the number of structures that have disappeared from schools to shops to homes.
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  200,000 that's the number of people that have been displaced and again these numbers are
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  changing literally every day and no doubt that's probably somewhere a lot higher by now.
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  200, that's the percentage increase that landlords have increased their rent for taking
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  advantage of people that are displaced which is absolutely disgusting and there's actually
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  reinforcements are cracking down on it in terms of people not being able to do that which
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  is thank goodness because that's absolutely essential.
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  And that should be illegal.
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  12 is the number of countries that Heidi Montaggs song is number one in.
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  So Heidi and Spitzer perhaps lost their house and they have blowing up on TikTok and
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  everyone's like we're going to support them by making Heidi's song which in my opinion
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  is absolutely terrible number one and she's number one in 12 countries across the world.
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  Like this was kind of the glimmer of hope I was like this is cool that social media can
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  create such a movement that now they're getting paid royalties from the song to help rebuild
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  their house.
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  Okay we're going to play a little section now.
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  Sounds terrible but amazing that people are like you know what I'm on the other side of
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  the world and I'm going to do my bit to help these people rebuild their house.
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  Is it bad that my immediate reaction is I mean I'm glad that people are helping them
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  but like what about all the other people?
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  Yeah 100% you'd be better to donate to causes which we'll link in the podcast show notes
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  and so that's distributed evenly rather than just going to like no I agree but I thought
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  that was just sorry not to be negative Nancy it is I know what you mean 20 billion
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  that's the dollar figure of insurance payouts that they're expecting so this is people that
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  have got their homes insured or their contents insured cars and are going to be claiming from
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  insurance providers 275 billion is the kind of economic loss that the country is going to incur
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  and what this means is this is the destruction of homes and businesses it's the damages to
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  water supplies infrastructure bridges all of that it's the impact of the financial impact
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  of evacuation orders so getting people out putting them up in other other places to live
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  you know in the short term it's the cost of rebuilding or relocating those people
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  emergency services all the firefighters that had to swarm in and help put out the fires
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  also the the healthcare costs of people that have been inhaling smoke that's kind of what we call
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  275 billion dollars that is insane considering the fire department was asking the county for an
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  extra 7 million dollars funding and they said no and this is what everyone's backlash is like if
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  we had had that money in that resource we could have prevented a lot of this but you just put those
• 17:10
  those two those two dollar figures side by side and it's obviously a no brainer I think that
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  that's a really good example though of you know there's so much like arguments around business
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  versus planet you know like capitalism and business growth at the risk of everything else
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  at the end of the day like the financial loss of not caring for the planet is going to be 10 fold
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  over what you could ever create through businesses it's just like it's kind of a no brainer and
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  when you see those numbers side by side it really does put in perspective like having like financial
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  losses in the short term from a business perspective is going to be long term what saves not only
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  millions of lives and the actual land that we live on but also money the argument is like the
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  financial loss is why people don't want to put time and energy and money into like trying to
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  sort out climate change and yet the financial implications of not doing that are so much greater
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  well it's like people think of okay we don't need to spend money on this because well use
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  there's an increased likelihood but the life's like a little happen is probably still what it's like
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  yes but when it does and this is becoming more frequent you you hit the nail in the here there's
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  climate disasters upcoming more and more frequent and bigger and more costly so we have to spend money
• 18:28
  on preventing these events from happening doing that it's funneling money into protecting the
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  environment and my last figure is 1.6 can you guess what that figure relates to? I'm scared and
• 18:45
  I have no idea how much warmer the earth was this year so we have now officially passed through
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  the 1.5 degree threshold and we're at 1.6 2024 was the hottest on record and the first time that we
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  breached that 1.5 degree Celsius of global warming and 10 of the hottest years have been in the last
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  decade we're not doing our job we're not doing enough to reduce that not only we shouldn't be
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  reducing it below 1.5 we should be reducing it to not getting warmer at all 1.5 is a cop out
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  and 1.6 is above 1.5 anyway so do we just move the needle and go okay let's make it not
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  increased by two degrees let's just move the needle it's like no no no because we'll be having these
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  275 billion dollar disasters oh my god sorry no I'm just like it just makes me so upset and I feel
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  so I don't know it just makes you feel really you know like what else can we do like what and maybe
• 19:51
  the conversation and something that we could look at doing an episode on is how can we try and use
• 19:57
  our money to really fight back against the companies that are destroying the planet and funneling
• 20:05
  money into the companies that are doing their best to be innovative and create alternative ways
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  of living and being because it's you know it can feel you can feel so helpless with like
• 20:16
  you know our limited resources but when we pull it together it's not nothing it's companies and
• 20:21
  governments remember governments are in policy makers are a big part of this and when you vote
• 20:28
  for people in power who don't have climate as one of their key policies this is what happens
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  so for anyone who's like politics is not for me oh god if you live on planet earth if you live on
• 20:43
  planet earth it is so the following effects of this is this will give a GDP boost to the US and GDP
• 20:55
  is gross domestic product and that's the output of of an economy and why is this well GDP measures
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  reconstruction not destruction so if you think back to like those floods that we had in the Hawkes
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  Bay in New Zealand earthquakes for example we have to rebuild and with doing that we have to engage
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  you know construction companies we have to engage you know have to buy building materials we have to
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  all of that which leads to like a spike in in GDP so there will be some figures coming out that
• 21:28
  will look good but it's it's economic figures it's not like a great data point to look at but it
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  will have a positive effect on that one thing I wanted to explain though is the number that I
• 21:40
  mentioned the $20 billion of insurance payouts insurance companies work whereby you know say we paid
• 21:48
  $200 a year to ensure our our car our house whatever they put that into a fund it's pulled together
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  with hundreds of thousands of other people's money and then oops okay I've had an accident I need
• 22:00
  to pull out from that fund and so they have all these checks and balances and kind of algorithms
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  going on all these risk calculations around where people's assets are that are putting money into
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  the fund and what procedures are people they think will pull money out of the fund so they're trying
• 22:15
  to balance those inflows and outflows essentially and the money going in is called premiums and that's
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  what we pay each month or each year and the money going out is when you when you make a claim
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  so the fact that there is now $20 billion of insurance claims that are expected to happen
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  this is massive and insurance companies I won't be able to cope because that's ever
• 22:36
  unduring down on the fund essentially at the same time and therefore the government has to
• 22:40
  step in and help people in terms of those payouts because they're not I guess calculating for big
• 22:46
  big payouts like this the other way they get around it is in the following years or months they
• 22:52
  just increase your premiums to help fill up the tank again and fill up that fund so people in LA
• 22:57
  in particular and and probably the US you know more broadly will see premiums insurance premiums go
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  up we've been seeing it all around the world to be honest as like you said these natural disasters
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  become more and more frequent that means that there is an increased risk of people drawing down on
• 23:13
  that fund so the insurance companies have to make up for that and they increase the premiums
• 23:19
  that impacts house values because for people now particularly in these high risk areas like LA
• 23:28
  they might have previously bought just for example like a $1 million house and say it costs
• 23:35
  $10,000 to ensure a year you know that doesn't really move the needle yes you have to factor in
• 23:40
  that $10,000 into your purchase price but if that $10,000 and I'm just using this from examples say
• 23:45
  I'm not saying that insurance premiums again got by this much if that $10,000 now goes up to $100,000
• 23:50
  a year now what you can afford is a buyer goes down because you have to factor in that $100,000 into
• 23:56
  your purchase price you either look elsewhere to buy in a less risky zone where the insurance might
• 24:01
  be lower or you go to the buyer and say hang on I can only give you $900,000 because it's going to
• 24:07
  cost me $100,000 to ensure my house and if you have a mortgage you cannot get a mortgage without
• 24:11
  insurance so the bank will not lend you money unless you have insurance on that house because otherwise
• 24:17
  this could happen and they lose all their money too so yeah so that's a bit of a download but
• 24:23
  this is going to impact house prices it's impacted insurance companies share prices because
• 24:29
  now people are saying oh the increase of these events why would I invest in insurance companies
• 24:34
  because they're just going to have to pay out more frequently now yes they can increase their
• 24:39
  premiums but you know is this going to keep happening and also this economic loss and these payouts
• 24:45
  and this climate disaster we end up paying for because we're the ones that put the bill for those
• 24:51
  increased premiums which lead to inflation so it's all it all comes back to us as people paying for
• 24:59
  this not only physically but financially do you know what I think could be kind of interesting
• 25:04
  to look at in the investing club would be businesses or technology or emerging companies that are
• 25:12
  either trying to predict natural disasters or like prevent them from happening I was speaking to
• 25:17
  someone while here in New York who was saying that she she angel invested in a private company that's
• 25:22
  doing something similar to that as we all know that this is going to be happening more and more
• 25:27
  there will be a huge reliance on like the ability to predict or like I don't know I think that
• 25:33
  could be kind of an interesting I 100% agree I think it's prevention though and the way you prevent
• 25:38
  this from happening is by investing or supporting companies that are reversing climate change or
• 25:46
  trying to have the lowest impact on the environment it's investing in environmentally positive
• 25:53
  companies it's investing in sustainable companies responsible companies all of that and the easiest
• 25:57
  way you do that is investing through into ESG ETFs for example and that's just environmental
• 26:03
  social and governance ETFs so there is ways to do it if you're sitting here feeling helpless
• 26:10
  there is a way that you can support the planet Dirk I do not would be quite cool is if next month in
• 26:17
  the investing club we focus on some ideas in that space like we look at a few companies or ETFs
• 26:23
  that really like support that movement but and if you're listening to this and you're wanting to
• 26:29
  invest in places that are what we've just spoken about we'll link the investing club in the show
• 26:35
  notes because I think that's the thing right there's such a greenwashing there's such an overwhelm
• 26:39
  of like okay I do want to invest in those types of things but I don't really know what to put it in
• 26:43
  that's the whole point of the investing club so we can do the research and come back with some ideas
• 26:47
  finally if you are if you don't have insurance you wanting to get insurance we do have a really
• 26:52
  great episode which is raising the curfew episode 63 and it's all about sorting out your plan B
• 26:58
  that was particularly though health insurance right so it might actually be worth
• 27:02
  looking at doing one that's more home and contents but that is a really good episode and also like
• 27:08
  the idea of losing your job it's it's all about it's protecting all assets and you are an asset
• 27:14
  as in as income so it's about protecting that you're right but it just goes into the importance of
• 27:19
  insurance as well thank you so much for listening to the Curve Weekly make sure you hit the
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• 27:29
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• 27:43
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• 27:55
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• 28:03
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