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Recession Odds Are All Over the News This Year. How Do I Prepare Without Living in Fear? · Becoming Financially Confident

• 0:37
  Economists this year can't even agree with each other.
• 0:40
  Some put recession odds in the United States at 30%.
• 0:43
  Others put it closer to 40%.
• 0:46
  But here's the truth.
• 0:48
  Consumer confidence has fallen to some of the lowest levels in years, and a lot of families say their finances feel like they're getting worse, not better.
• 0:58
  So when even the experts are split, how are you supposed to know what to actually do?
• 1:04
  Economic uncertainty is nothing new.
• 1:06
  We've seen it from time to time.
• 1:08
  But this year's headlines are generally more mixed than usual.
• 1:12
  The goal isn't predicting which forecast is right, it's preparing regardless of which one comes true.
• 1:19
  So stay with me today, and let's replace financial fear with faithful preparation.
• 1:24
  That's what we're going to talk about on today's show.
• 1:35
  Hello and welcome to Financially Confident Christian.
• 1:37
  My name is Ralph Estep Jr.
• 1:39
  I'm your guide on our odyssey of talking about what we're hearing about in the news and what is real on the ground.
• 1:46
  So today we're going to talk about preparing wisely for economic uncertainty in a year when we're genuinely seeing mixed forecasts.
• 1:53
  The experts don't even know what's going on.
• 1:55
  And I got a listener question that asked me this, what if a recession is coming, Ralph?
• 2:01
  Should I stop investing?
• 2:02
  Should I change everything I'm doing financially?
• 2:05
  And I'm going to tell you right now, when professional economists disagree with each other, it's no wonder regular families feel unsettled.
• 2:14
  If you're feeling unsettled, today is the show for you.
• 2:17
  Now, maybe you've got a question for this show.
• 2:19
  Maybe it's not something as big as this, but go to financiallyconfidentchristian.com/question, type in your question and and I'll answer your question right here on the show.
• 2:28
  We'll put that in the show notes.
• 2:29
  But again, it's financiallyconfidentchristian.com/question Let's get right to today's listener question.
• 2:37
  Listener writes this hi, Ralph.
• 2:39
  I've been trying to follow the economic news this year to figure out if I should be worried.
• 2:43
  And honestly, it's made things worse instead of better.
• 2:47
  One report says recession risk is at 30%.
• 2:51
  Another says 40 and 80.
• 2:52
  Everyone seems to be watching the same handful of warning signs and reaching different conclusions.
• 2:58
  On top of that, I keep seeing surveys saying people's confidence in the economy is at some of the lowest points in years, and a lot of families say their own finances feel like they're getting worse.
• 3:11
  That matches how I've been feeling, too, even though nothing Dramatic has actually happened to my job or my income yet.
• 3:18
  Ralph, I don't want to ignore real warning signs, but I also don't want to make big financial changes just because I'm anxious.
• 3:25
  How should I actually be thinking about this?
• 3:28
  Thank you.
• 3:29
  Well, thank you.
• 3:30
  What a great question, and I totally get it, because you listen to any news forecast, you're going to hear, this expert says this.
• 3:36
  This expert says something different.
• 3:38
  And when professional forecasters can't agree, what do you do?
• 3:42
  What's the wise response for preparation?
• 3:45
  Not some prediction.
• 3:46
  But today I want to focus on the things that you can actually control.
• 3:50
  So we're going to get real practical here.
• 3:51
  Number one thing, and yes, Ralph's going to mention emergency funds again.
• 3:55
  We got to start there.
• 3:56
  In uncertain times, this is the most important time to have an emergency savings fund.
• 4:03
  I'm going to give you a great example.
• 4:05
  This happened in my own family last Friday.
• 4:08
  I was sitting here in my studio recording, and my telephone went off.
• 4:11
  And I'm like, it's very unusual for my wife to call me in the mornings because she knows my normal routine as I'm recording.
• 4:17
  And I didn't answer it right away.
• 4:18
  And as soon as I was done hitting that recording, I called her and she says, our son is on the way to the emergency room.
• 4:24
  And I said, oh, my God, is he okay?
• 4:25
  She goes, well, he's having some pain in his stomach.
• 4:29
  I said, well, that's not good.
• 4:30
  So, long story short, he went to the emergency room.
• 4:32
  They gave him a complete checkup, they ran some tests, all that kind of stuff.
• 4:36
  And they said, you're fine.
• 4:38
  But here's the thing that he wasn't prepared for.
• 4:41
  He's got health insurance, but his deductible is a big number.
• 4:47
  And as he was leaving the hospital, he said to me, he said, dad, he said, you know what?
• 4:51
  You always harp about these emergency funds.
• 4:53
  He says, I actually have one now.
• 4:56
  And now I'm not so worried about this copay.
• 4:58
  That bill when it comes from the hospital.
• 5:00
  See, that's a real life example of why you need an emergency fund.
• 5:04
  We've talked about this the other day.
• 5:06
  Emergency funds depend on your situation.
• 5:09
  So build that three to six months of essential expenses, depending upon what your job looks like.
• 5:15
  Like, it might be more than that.
• 5:17
  And listen, if you're not there right now, a lot of people, they don't have $1,000.
• 5:21
  They don't have $500.
• 5:22
  I'm not telling you to stop where you are.
• 5:24
  Start there, but keep making some steady progress.
• 5:28
  Try to build that number.
• 5:30
  Especially in the economic times we're in right now.
• 5:33
  Every dollar that you save increases your flexibility no matter what the economy actually does.
• 5:39
  Hey, if the economy does great, that's even better.
• 5:42
  Now you've got a bigger emergency fund.
• 5:43
  You can't control the economy, none of us can.
• 5:47
  But you can strengthen your own foundation.
• 5:50
  Here's another tip, and this is one I tell every single person I have the opportunity to talk to.
• 5:56
  Keep living below your means.
• 5:59
  You're thinking, oh, Ralph, that sounds like a lot of fun.
• 6:01
  I'm gonna live below my means.
• 6:02
  That is the secret to financial success.
• 6:05
  A lot of people talk about margin.
• 6:07
  Yes, margin creates stability.
• 6:10
  That margin is great because no matter what the economic forecast becomes, it always works.
• 6:17
  If you avoid expanding your lifestyle.
• 6:20
  Every time your income grows, you're living below your means.
• 6:23
  Spend less than you earn.
• 6:24
  Keep that unnecessary debt down.
• 6:27
  Build that financial breathing room.
• 6:29
  Because it becomes incredibly valuable if conditions do tighten this year.
• 6:34
  That margin you're building today, living below your means becomes peace of mind tomorrow because you're not as much worried about it.
• 6:42
  But at the same time in your email you mentioned this fear based investment decisions.
• 6:47
  And I hear this all the time in the press.
• 6:49
  Here's the thing I want to tell you.
• 6:50
  This is a truism of the markets.
• 6:53
  Markets rise and fall, that's normal.
• 6:57
  Even when they're split forecast by the people who are the gurus of this.
• 7:01
  Markets rise and fall, that's a normal thing.
• 7:04
  You've got to have a long term investment idea.
• 7:07
  It's about patience.
• 7:09
  If you think you're going to go buy investments and make a million dollars tomorrow, that will get you in trouble.
• 7:14
  And when you sell because of fear, most of the time that locks in losses that you're never going to be able to recover from.
• 7:21
  You got to focus on a long term plan rather than reacting to each new headline.
• 7:26
  This is why I tell people, don't look at your investment statements every day.
• 7:29
  Don't log into your investment account every day because you will live in constant fast fear.
• 7:35
  Those temporary headlines shouldn't rewrite a long term strategy.
• 7:40
  But here's things you can invest in and a lot of people don't think about this.
• 7:45
  Invest in your ability to earn more when you see hiring slower.
• 7:49
  We talked about this the other day.
• 7:51
  When we see people being replaced by AI, we see people being replaced by automation.
• 7:58
  You got to learn how to be more valuable and adaptable.
• 8:02
  This is a time to learn new skills.
• 8:03
  So many people get in their job and they just get Stuck.
• 8:07
  They don't move on.
• 8:09
  This is a great time to learn new skills, build those relationships, improve yourself professionally.
• 8:16
  One of the things that I tell a lot of people is add additional income streams.
• 8:21
  If your current role feels less secure, go figure out other ways to make extra money.
• 8:27
  It may be extra.
• 8:27
  Extra.
• 8:28
  That's fantastic.
• 8:29
  The greatest financial asset is your own ability to create value.
• 8:34
  If you can create value for what you're able to bring to the market, that is the best economic scenario there is.
• 8:41
  One of the smartest investments, by far the smartest investment you can ever make is investing in yourself.
• 8:50
  Now, put all what I just set aside.
• 8:53
  You also have to remember who your actual provider is.
• 8:58
  Your employer isn't your ultimate provider.
• 9:01
  The economy we're living in is not the ultimate provider.
• 9:04
  The stock market isn't your provider.
• 9:07
  This shows all about faith and finance.
• 9:10
  God is your provider.
• 9:12
  Doesn't matter which economist turns out to be right this year.
• 9:15
  In the end, God is our provider.
• 9:19
  Wise planning and deep trust belong together, not one instead of the other.
• 9:24
  Our security isn't found in some perfect economic conditions.
• 9:29
  It's found in a true and faithful God.
• 9:33
  Now, I want to go a little deeper here.
• 9:34
  Because throughout history, God's people have lived throughout droughts.
• 9:39
  They lived throughout famines and wars and recessions and uncertainty.
• 9:44
  Every single generation has faced seasons when the future looked unclear.
• 9:49
  And this year it does look unclear.
• 9:51
  I'm not going to sit here and sugarcoat it.
• 9:53
  Even the professional studying the numbers can't agree on what's coming.
• 9:57
  But here's something I can guarantee you is coming.
• 10:00
  God's faithfulness has never depended on which forecast turns out to be correct.
• 10:06
  Here's what faith doesn't promise us.
• 10:08
  It doesn't promise us that difficult seasons won't come.
• 10:10
  They're going to come.
• 10:11
  We are going to go through storms in life.
• 10:14
  It doesn't promise us that if we make investments, they're never going to decline in value.
• 10:19
  They probably will.
• 10:21
  And it doesn't promise us that our career is never going to face challenge, even in an uncertain job market like this one.
• 10:28
  But it does promise some very good things.
• 10:32
  God remains faithful in every single season.
• 10:36
  He doesn't rely on the GDP or the recession, odds or any of those things.
• 10:40
  He gives us wisdom for today.
• 10:43
  He gives us strength for tomorrow.
• 10:45
  And it gives us peace that circumstances cannot ever take away.
• 10:50
  The beauty of God's love for us is it never changes.
• 10:53
  His character never changes, even when economic forecasts do.
• 10:58
  Friend, fear is a poor financial advisor.
• 11:01
  Peace grows through trust.
• 11:04
  Hope Always has the final word.
• 11:07
  The economy is going to rise and fall and the experts are going to always disagree.
• 11:11
  But God's faithfulness never changes.
• 11:16
  So don't let split forecast steal your peace today.
• 11:20
  Prepare wisely.
• 11:21
  Yes, trust in the Lord deeply, but keep moving forward.
• 11:25
  Preparedness isn't fear, it's faithful stewardship.
• 11:28
  So here's your win for today.
• 11:29
  We're going to get super practical.
• 11:31
  Perform a financial preparedness check, go look at your emergency fund, update your monthly budget, look at some unnecessary expenses to eliminate.
• 11:41
  Identify one way to increase your earning potential this year.
• 11:44
  Grow yourself professionally.
• 11:48
  Being prepared isn't living in fear.
• 11:50
  It's faithful stewardship.
• 11:52
  Which leads me to today's Bible verse.
• 11:54
  It comes to us from Isaiah, chapter 41, verse 10.
• 11:59
  Don't be afraid, for I am with you.
• 12:02
  Don't be discouraged, for I am your God.
• 12:05
  I will strengthen you and help you.
• 12:08
  I will hold you up with my victorious right hand.
• 12:13
  I don't know about you, but that's a mic drop moment, isn't it?
• 12:16
  God speaks directly to our fears, even those fears that are backed by real conflicting economic data.
• 12:24
  He doesn't promise us that difficulty isn't going to come.
• 12:28
  What does he promise us?
• 12:29
  He promises us that we won't face it alone.
• 12:33
  Never will we face it alone.
• 12:36
  That confidence that we all can have grows when trust is rooted in Him.
• 12:41
  Instead of the latest forecast, let's pray together right now.
• 12:45
  Heavenly Father, thank you for being our constant source of hope in an uncertain world.
• 12:50
  Even in a year when the experts themselves can't agree, you laugh at them, don't you, God?
• 12:55
  So when conflicting headlines create anxiety in us, Lord, remind us that you are still in control no matter what goes on in the economy.
• 13:04
  Give us wisdom, Lord, and help us prepare faithfully.
• 13:07
  And give us courage to make wise financial decisions with the money you give us to steward.
• 13:12
  Give us peace that isn't shaken by economic uncertainty or by split forecasts, Lord, and help us trust you more than the news.
• 13:20
  Help us trust you more than the markets and help us trust you more than our own fears.
• 13:26
  And may our confidence always rest in your unchanging faithfulness.
• 13:31
  And we ask this in the name of Jesus.
• 13:34
  Amen, friend.
• 13:36
  Even professional economists disagree this year.
• 13:40
  So we're living in uncertainty, but it doesn't require panic, it just requires wisdom.
• 13:45
  So strengthen your emergency fund, live below your means and stay committed to your long term investment plan.
• 13:52
  Grow your skills and remember in the end who your true provider is, regardless of which forecasts prove.
• 13:59
  Right now, maybe you've got a question for this show.
• 14:02
  I'd love to answer it.
• 14:03
  I'd love to hear your voice.
• 14:04
  You can record a voicemail message for me by going to financially confidentChristian.
• 14:11
  It is super simple.
• 14:12
  We'll put a link right in the show notes.
• 14:14
  You just click on that click record and I'll hear you again.
• 14:17
  That's financiallyconfidentchristian.com/voicemail I just want to thank you for joining me today.
• 14:24
  I want to encourage you to stay financially savvy, know who the true provider is.
• 14:29
  May God bless you and you have a great day.
• 14:41
  I.