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The Favorites - AFC & NFC North Betting Previews · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: Redline is one eight eight nine one hundred five to
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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,
1:27
Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Meman,
1:32
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, and we are
1:36
Speaker 1: oh so close, folks. We are going to start diving
1:41
Speaker 1: into division by division, betting ideas, concepts, nuggets, everything you
1:52
Speaker 1: need to know to prep for the NFL season. Me
1:57
Speaker 1: and my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Simon,
2:07
Speaker 1: I know you've been waiting for this month so we
2:11
Speaker 1: could finally stop with the riff raff and get focused
2:14
Speaker 1: on the football since the Super Bowl ended. Yeah, I
2:19
Speaker 1: definitely enjoy the time off from football. But once I
2:22
Speaker 1: feel like, once the draft happens, you can kind of
2:24
Speaker 1: feel the itch coming. And then once the air gets
2:26
Speaker 1: a little hot up in the Northeast the June months,
2:29
Speaker 1: that's that's really when it starts for football. Well, look,
2:34
Speaker 1: with training camps almost felt like they snuck up on us.
2:37
Speaker 1: And there's been no al right, right exactly, there's been
2:41
Speaker 1: no shortage of news coming out of training camps um
2:44
Speaker 1: and we've seen, you know, sort of the standard. Oh
2:47
Speaker 1: my god, this team is going to be amazing. This
2:50
Speaker 1: player looks great. Every day I hear about George Pickens
2:54
Speaker 1: and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Every day I'm looking at highlights
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Speaker 1: of TOA and to re kill and all of a
3:00
Speaker 1: sudden to getting some m v P love. Uh. Today,
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Speaker 1: we're gonna focus on the Great North, the a f
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Speaker 1: C North and the NFC North. We're gonna go through
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Speaker 1: every single team, both divisions. We're gonna talk about odds
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Speaker 1: to win. We're gonna talk about win totals. We're gonna
3:19
Speaker 1: talk about odds to make the playoffs from Baltimore through Detroit.
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Speaker 1: From what we think might be the best of what
3:27
Speaker 1: we think might be the worst. We're joined Action Network
3:32
Speaker 1: Senior Analysts extraordinaire. He does it all, folks. He joins
3:36
Speaker 1: me and Simon and convinced me. On Sundays during the
3:38
Speaker 1: NFL season, he hosts the Action Network NFL Podcast. On
3:42
Speaker 1: Thursdays during the season with Stucky. He hosts the Fantasy
3:46
Speaker 1: Flex Podcast. He is Chris raybun Yo. Some guys, it's
3:53
Speaker 1: it's that time. We just got We just got some
3:55
Speaker 1: breaking news. Miami just their owners banned and they lost
3:59
Speaker 1: their first round picks for the next two years. So
4:01
Speaker 1: it's officially football season. Let's go listen. Yeah, that is
4:04
Speaker 1: big news, and I think people are here. We're recording
4:07
Speaker 1: this on a Tuesday. People are hearing this on a Thursday. Uh.
4:11
Speaker 1: The Stephen Ross news is not is not insignificant in
4:16
Speaker 1: that it is real reaction and real consequences for something
4:23
Speaker 1: that came out of that Brian Flores lawsuit, which was
4:25
Speaker 1: potential tampering with Tom Brady. It wasn't just um, uh
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Speaker 1: Stephen Ross who was impacted. It was a co owner
4:33
Speaker 1: of the Dolphins as well. Find five dollars not allowed
4:37
Speaker 1: to go to league events, Stephen Ross one point five
4:41
Speaker 1: million dollars not allowed to go to events until the
4:43
Speaker 1: owners meeting in plus the loss of the picks. Um,
4:48
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to all that when we talk about
4:51
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conferences, a f C n NFC, We're gonna
4:55
Speaker 1: start a f C North Boys, And to me, Baltimore's
5:00
Speaker 1: most interesting team in this division, not Cleveland, not Pittsburgh,
5:04
Speaker 1: not Cincinnati. Because I do feel like there is a
5:09
Speaker 1: positive regression that is due for the Ravens given Lamar
5:14
Speaker 1: had a difficult year, a lot of injuries the defensive backfield. Raybon,
5:18
Speaker 1: it felt like you and Stuck you were talking about
5:21
Speaker 1: Ravens injuries in the backfield every week last year. UM,
5:25
Speaker 1: I like everything about this team. I like him to
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Speaker 1: win the division. I like their over a ten and
5:32
Speaker 1: a half, Raybon. I want to start with you minus
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Speaker 1: one make the class. It's probability plus one seventy to
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Speaker 1: win the North. Ten and a half is the win total.
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Speaker 1: Talk to me. I for the Ravens, I would go
5:49
Speaker 1: with more of a like a long shot, but like
5:52
Speaker 1: I would take them to win the A f C
5:54
Speaker 1: or something like that, because I think they still have
5:56
Speaker 1: a wide range of outcomes. I think the division is
5:58
Speaker 1: still tough, and I think the defense's gonna be a
6:01
Speaker 1: lot better. You mentioned they had a way too many injuries,
6:06
Speaker 1: terrible injury look last year, but I did notice that
6:10
Speaker 1: for the first time in a while, I thought that
6:13
Speaker 1: Greg Roman really couldn't figure it out, and I thought
6:16
Speaker 1: defense has really started to figure out Lamar Jackson last year,
6:20
Speaker 1: and um, I think it's gonna I think the offense
6:23
Speaker 1: is still gonna struggle a little bit, you know, they
6:25
Speaker 1: say they're starting with their running backs on the pup.
6:27
Speaker 1: We don't know if they're gonna be healthy to start
6:29
Speaker 1: the year. They obviously lost Hollywood Brown, so I still
6:32
Speaker 1: think the Ravens offense is going to be inconsistent. Eleven
6:35
Speaker 1: wins is a high number, um, you know for me
6:38
Speaker 1: to go over ten and a half. So I do
6:40
Speaker 1: like them as a long shot to win the conference.
6:42
Speaker 1: We've seen We've seen them, you know, do a lot
6:45
Speaker 1: with less on on offense, so it's not as if
6:48
Speaker 1: they can't. But it's since if you look at Lamar
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Speaker 1: Jackson's numbers, um, they've just been trending downward and pretty
6:55
Speaker 1: much every efficiency category. And I just think defenses are
6:58
Speaker 1: starting to figure things out, blitzing uh Lamar a lot more,
7:02
Speaker 1: which you're not really supposed to be able to blitz
7:05
Speaker 1: a quarterback that can run like that. So, um, it's
7:08
Speaker 1: I am a little concerned about the offense, but I
7:11
Speaker 1: think the defense will be very, very good and out
7:13
Speaker 1: keep him in every game. You've generally been someone who
7:20
Speaker 1: is ahead of the curve on analyzing quarterbacks, So when
7:22
Speaker 1: you're saying that Greg Roman couldn't figure it out and
7:25
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson seems to have been struggling and hasn't played
7:31
Speaker 1: up to his m v P level. That makes me
7:34
Speaker 1: a little bit nervous when I'm thinking about ten and
7:36
Speaker 1: a half wins. Simon, you've been studying film. That's all
7:40
Speaker 1: you watch. You don't watch anything else. Tell me your thoughts.
7:43
Speaker 1: Am I right or is Raybon right? I think raybonds
7:47
Speaker 1: are in this sense that it feels like he's kind
7:48
Speaker 1: of telling you you've missed the value on the Ravens,
7:51
Speaker 1: which I have to agree with on the LNG. It's
7:52
Speaker 1: like we talked what Chad three months ago when all
7:56
Speaker 1: the Watson stuff was happening with the Browns and they're
7:57
Speaker 1: the shining you toy and we were getting Ravens at
8:00
Speaker 1: I think plus two twenty at VANDUEL. Now you just
8:02
Speaker 1: sit there down plus to one seventy. I mean a
8:05
Speaker 1: lot of people have there doesn't sound like much, but
8:07
Speaker 1: to me and Chris, that's a big deal. Like you
8:09
Speaker 1: need that extra value long term, that's how you build
8:12
Speaker 1: up a bank roll. So looking at a number that's
8:15
Speaker 1: up to ten and a half when it wasn't ten,
8:16
Speaker 1: and the fact that they're always down to plus one seventy,
8:19
Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, I like the Ravens. I think they're
8:21
Speaker 1: the best team in this division still, But are they
8:23
Speaker 1: that much better than the Browns? Are they that much
8:25
Speaker 1: better than the Bengals to be the favorite at this number?
8:29
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think we've kind of all
8:32
Speaker 1: you know, we always like to come into a new
8:33
Speaker 1: season and be the one that's saying something that other
8:35
Speaker 1: people aren't saying. I think everyone's talking about the Ravens
8:37
Speaker 1: now right, Like we all look at them as a
8:39
Speaker 1: team that was hurt last year. We're always looking for
8:41
Speaker 1: a team to go from last place to first place.
8:43
Speaker 1: They just fit that bill of a team that was
8:46
Speaker 1: in the fourth in the division to win the division
8:48
Speaker 1: the following year. So I do like the Ravens. I'm
8:50
Speaker 1: just worried at this point as we sit here in August,
8:53
Speaker 1: the value has been bed out, Like again, what we're
8:55
Speaker 1: gonna talk about. We go through this division and I
8:57
Speaker 1: got the Bengals at tend to one in middle of
8:59
Speaker 1: Octo over to win that division, and like that's what
9:01
Speaker 1: we look for. We're looking for crazy odds on these
9:04
Speaker 1: teams that you know, they might have been two back
9:07
Speaker 1: of the Ravens and they were playing the Ravens that week,
9:08
Speaker 1: and that's why we thought at tend to one, that's
9:11
Speaker 1: too big of odds to give the Bengals. So to
9:14
Speaker 1: me is a value based better. I just wouldn't put
9:17
Speaker 1: money now into the Ravens because you've already missed a
9:19
Speaker 1: good number. You're you're literally losing money by betting this number.
9:22
Speaker 1: Ravens are eleven to one to win the a f
9:24
Speaker 1: C at Fandal, there twenty one to one to win
9:28
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl at Fandal. Do either of you feel
9:32
Speaker 1: like those odds are reflective of how good they are? Yeah?
9:42
Speaker 1: I think those are. Like that's what if I agree
9:45
Speaker 1: with Time and I don't really want to invest in
9:47
Speaker 1: the Ravens now, but if I did, it would be
9:50
Speaker 1: in that sense because I just the media at ten
9:53
Speaker 1: and a half guess a lot um. The division is
9:56
Speaker 1: wide open um. So I just think you have to
9:59
Speaker 1: take a long shot and hope that they have another season,
10:02
Speaker 1: you know, like twenty nineteen when they you know, we
10:04
Speaker 1: kind of looked at their wide receiving horror. He said,
10:07
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna work, but they had
10:09
Speaker 1: their defense. You know, certain things are similar. But again,
10:12
Speaker 1: I just I don't know if that they're ever going
10:14
Speaker 1: to replicate offensively that season with Lamar just because I think, Um,
10:19
Speaker 1: you know, defensives have started to figure out that scheme
10:22
Speaker 1: and you know the numbers kind of back that up. Well,
10:25
Speaker 1: what do you think happened? Like is he not adjusting?
10:28
Speaker 1: Can't players adjust both ways? If defense can figure out,
10:32
Speaker 1: why can't Greg Roman and Lamar Jackson figure it out?
10:35
Speaker 1: It's a good question. I mean, so what I saw
10:38
Speaker 1: is that I think there's certain throws that Lamar is
10:42
Speaker 1: just doesn't see quite as well or process quite as
10:46
Speaker 1: well as maybe some other quarterbacks. And because they're receiving
10:50
Speaker 1: corps outside of Mark Andrews, Um tends to be on
10:54
Speaker 1: you know, one of the weaker ones in the NFL.
10:56
Speaker 1: Um defenses and stead are kind of essentially four see
11:00
Speaker 1: him to throw the certain spots on the field where
11:01
Speaker 1: he's not it's comfortable throwing like they they want him
11:04
Speaker 1: to throw like, you know, outside the numbers, they wanted
11:06
Speaker 1: to throw deeper downfield. Um. And you know, we saw
11:10
Speaker 1: the Titans kind of execute that same kind of game
11:13
Speaker 1: when the year that Ravens did have that great year,
11:15
Speaker 1: and ever since then, you know, it's been kind of downhill.
11:18
Speaker 1: But last year it was you know, defenses were just
11:21
Speaker 1: covering these receivers one on one, you know, and blitzing,
11:25
Speaker 1: which is something you're really not supposed to be able
11:27
Speaker 1: to do it against the running quarterback. You're not supposed
11:29
Speaker 1: to be able to like play me a coverage and
11:31
Speaker 1: blitz them like they they're supposed to make you pay.
11:33
Speaker 1: But um, you know, unless Bateman takes a major step forward,
11:38
Speaker 1: I just have this, you know the same concerns of
11:41
Speaker 1: things going wrong on offense that that happened last year.
11:45
Speaker 1: But again, the defense will be a lot better. But yeah,
11:48
Speaker 1: I think that's what happened. I just think defenses are
11:51
Speaker 1: figuring out where how to make Lamar uncomfortable and they're
11:54
Speaker 1: realizing that they don't have to be scared of anyone
11:56
Speaker 1: on the outside. For Baltimore, Oh so there were there
11:59
Speaker 1: were the one seed, but four Lamar went down last year.
12:01
Speaker 1: So again, like as much as we want to downplay,
12:04
Speaker 1: it's like it still works. Like whatever he like, he's
12:07
Speaker 1: that great, it could still work. It's just like Chris
12:09
Speaker 1: talking about the more years in, the more they figure
12:12
Speaker 1: out your weaknesses. He can't make these passes which he
12:15
Speaker 1: needs to make Yeah, it's it's just a bad pick, Like,
12:17
Speaker 1: how is he gonna win the playoffs if you can't
12:19
Speaker 1: make those big throws on third down? The Bengals, uh,
12:24
Speaker 1: the next in line to win the division. Their season
12:27
Speaker 1: win total is at nine and a half. It's minus
12:31
Speaker 1: one thirty to the over. Uh they're super Bowl odds
12:35
Speaker 1: are I mean they're they're a FC odds are twelve
12:39
Speaker 1: to one. They're super Bowl odds are UM twenty two one.
12:47
Speaker 1: So bunched in there with the Ravens. Do they run
12:51
Speaker 1: it back? Simon? I would stay away. I'm historically I
12:56
Speaker 1: like the fade teams that lose the Super Bowl, especially
12:59
Speaker 1: teams that have a young war just because you know,
13:01
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna get to their head, right Like they
13:03
Speaker 1: think they've been there before, they think they know how
13:05
Speaker 1: to get there again, and we've just seen time and
13:07
Speaker 1: time again. It's just really hard. Man, Like Dan Marino
13:11
Speaker 1: made it as a rookie or is the second year quarterback?
13:13
Speaker 1: Then Dannon Marino never made it back despite being a
13:16
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame quarterback. It's just really hard to get
13:18
Speaker 1: back there. So looking at the Bengals team, I got
13:21
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow coming off, you know, they can hide it
13:23
Speaker 1: as much as they want. We know he parsed me
13:25
Speaker 1: towards the A c L R M C L. Something
13:27
Speaker 1: happened there during that Super Bowl after that touchdown to
13:30
Speaker 1: start the third quarter, something that happened. Aaron Donald hit him,
13:34
Speaker 1: and there was something that happened in that moment where
13:36
Speaker 1: he just wasn't the same. Now we see him riding
13:38
Speaker 1: around on a golf cart. It's not practicing yet, right,
13:41
Speaker 1: it's august. I don't want to make a big deal
13:44
Speaker 1: of it because it's Joe Burrow. Like this guy. To me,
13:47
Speaker 1: he's in that same pantheon as these other FC quarterbacks,
13:49
Speaker 1: the Mahomes, the Josh Allens, the Herberts, of these really
13:53
Speaker 1: incredible young talent to quarterback. So I love the Bengals
13:57
Speaker 1: like I want to be in on the Bengals because
13:58
Speaker 1: I just love the core. I love what they built.
14:00
Speaker 1: They addressed the offensive line issues. I just have to
14:03
Speaker 1: look at a team that historically the math works out,
14:06
Speaker 1: the team will always take a step back. It's just
14:09
Speaker 1: when you wanted to vision for the first time, when
14:11
Speaker 1: you're going to Super Bowl for the first time and
14:13
Speaker 1: you know the team history and I don't even know
14:14
Speaker 1: is it their history. I don't think they've ever been
14:16
Speaker 1: like I think, well what Boomer back in the day. Yeah,
14:21
Speaker 1: So it's like, it's just a lot to me for
14:24
Speaker 1: this since team with the expectations of you just read
14:26
Speaker 1: the number, right, you had nine and a half. The
14:29
Speaker 1: public has been pounding that number. They didn't move with
14:31
Speaker 1: to ten. They just moved to minus one thirties. So
14:34
Speaker 1: it's stinky. It feels like a nine and eight kind
14:36
Speaker 1: of year for this this Bengals team, which to me,
14:39
Speaker 1: that's not that's not horrible, right, that's like a seven
14:41
Speaker 1: sixty get in the back door of the playoffs. It's
14:44
Speaker 1: just not gonna be as easy it was for them
14:45
Speaker 1: last year. So to me, I'm gonna be a downer
14:48
Speaker 1: on this Bangos team. I'm gonna betting against them in
14:50
Speaker 1: a couple of categories, especially they're over under. Do you
14:52
Speaker 1: know what worries me about the Bengals And this story
14:56
Speaker 1: just came out this past week, Zach Taylor and Joe
14:59
Speaker 1: ma Sin have patched up any differences they had over
15:04
Speaker 1: how Mixon was used in the last drive in the
15:07
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. And if you guys recall, I mean, look, Raybon,
15:11
Speaker 1: you were all over some of the under props for
15:16
Speaker 1: Bengals running backs, and you were spot on in the
15:18
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, right, And Joe Mixon all of a sudden
15:21
Speaker 1: in that last drive kind of disappeared and they couldn't
15:24
Speaker 1: convert on third and one and fourth and one, and
15:27
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon was kind of pissed about it. And it
15:29
Speaker 1: reminds me of the Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Pete Carroll dynamic.
15:35
Speaker 1: That team never recovered from that. And there wasn't a
15:39
Speaker 1: lot of love for Zach Taylor before this season. Joe
15:42
Speaker 1: Burrow kind of made him look like a genius. Is
15:47
Speaker 1: this a team that actually doesn't have the ability to
15:53
Speaker 1: repeat because the coach maybe isn't as good because things
15:56
Speaker 1: went perfectly for them last season. Raybon react and comment,
16:02
Speaker 1: I'm not putting too much stock into what happened with Mixing.
16:04
Speaker 1: I mean, he was just he was just a terrible
16:08
Speaker 1: passing down back for most of the year. They tried
16:10
Speaker 1: to use them on passing downs and they just stopped
16:12
Speaker 1: because he wasn't good, and so, um, you know, that's
16:15
Speaker 1: why Pete Ryan was in there. I wish he wasn't.
16:17
Speaker 1: I still would have rather had mixing there in that situation,
16:20
Speaker 1: but I think it all depends on Burrow. I mean,
16:22
Speaker 1: Simon hit on it. It's like you see the warning
16:26
Speaker 1: signs already because Burrows not practicing. Maybe he did get
16:30
Speaker 1: injured in Super Bowl, but then he got the appendex
16:32
Speaker 1: to me, so really he's just been kind of on
16:34
Speaker 1: the shelf either way. So, um, I'm kind of hoping
16:38
Speaker 1: that we hear like more of this negative news for
16:42
Speaker 1: the Bankers because I think the Bengals are the best
16:43
Speaker 1: team in this division. I think the Bengals, um, you know,
16:47
Speaker 1: have the best quarterback. I think the Bengals, you know,
16:49
Speaker 1: their offense, they did fix their offensive line. Um, Jamaar
16:53
Speaker 1: Chases entering a year two. Um Tee Higgins is great.
16:56
Speaker 1: You know. On defense, they have enough pieces as well. Um,
17:00
Speaker 1: So I really think this is a like on paper,
17:03
Speaker 1: the roster is pretty solid overall. They have that experience
17:07
Speaker 1: of getting to the postseason, but it all runs through
17:10
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. So I think I do think they can
17:11
Speaker 1: recover from whatever whatever you know, internal turmoil they're having
17:16
Speaker 1: because Joe Burrow is such a great leader. But if
17:19
Speaker 1: you know what where is he health wise? You know
17:22
Speaker 1: how how much is the how much practice time is
17:24
Speaker 1: he gonna lose because you don't want you know, everyone's
17:28
Speaker 1: gonna be gunning for the Bengals this year, and and
17:30
Speaker 1: to Simon's point that you know a team upstart team
17:34
Speaker 1: like that getting to the Super Bowl. Now everyone's circling
17:37
Speaker 1: the Bengals on their schedule, and so it is gonna
17:40
Speaker 1: it isn't gonna be easier. They can overcome it, but um,
17:44
Speaker 1: I just need to just to see more from Burrow.
17:46
Speaker 1: So I'm just kind of waiting and hoping that people
17:49
Speaker 1: start to sour on them, because I do actually think
17:51
Speaker 1: they're a better team, and I would have their win
17:54
Speaker 1: total a little bit ahead of the Ravens, all things equals.
17:57
Speaker 1: But you know, obviously we don't know, uh, you know,
18:00
Speaker 1: what's going on with Borrow exactly, all right, So we're
18:03
Speaker 1: gonna get to the Browns. Obviously, we got to talk
18:05
Speaker 1: about the Browns and Deshaun Watson. But the Steelers are
18:08
Speaker 1: really interesting. They are plus three thirty to make the playoffs,
18:12
Speaker 1: plus nine fifty to win the a f C North.
18:14
Speaker 1: Their win total is seven and a half seven one
18:17
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. That is their longest odds since
18:20
Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy six merger, and they are at their
18:24
Speaker 1: lowest win total since two thousand four, when they went
18:28
Speaker 1: fifteen and one behind a rookie quarterback, since under Bill
18:36
Speaker 1: to under Mike Tomlin and Bill Kower, since n when
18:40
Speaker 1: their win total is listed under eight two. They were
18:45
Speaker 1: at six and a half. They went eleven and five
18:48
Speaker 1: two thousand, they were at six and a half, went
18:50
Speaker 1: nine and seven two thousand one, they were at seven
18:53
Speaker 1: and a half, went thirteen and three two thousand four,
18:56
Speaker 1: seven and a half, one, fifteen and one. Guys, who's
19:02
Speaker 1: gonna bet against the rob Rob Mike Tomlin spot. I
19:05
Speaker 1: realized if you can have special outcomes that you gotta
19:07
Speaker 1: be comfortable being uncomfortable. I'm just training myself over the
19:11
Speaker 1: years to resist comfort and so appreciate my resume the
19:16
Speaker 1: seeking comfort. Yeah, I can't do it. I definitely. This
19:19
Speaker 1: is one of the pro bets, Like only pros are
19:22
Speaker 1: betting this number. I've bett in the over for this
19:23
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh team, and it's crazy looking at those numbers, just
19:27
Speaker 1: in the fact that it's been eighteen years since they've
19:30
Speaker 1: been at seven a half win tolls for a season
19:32
Speaker 1: eighteen years like that, Tomlin, big bend Run. I mean,
19:36
Speaker 1: that's that's that really is historical. And I know I
19:40
Speaker 1: had a couple of guys reached out to me about
19:42
Speaker 1: this coming to the season because I bet on Pittsburgh.
19:44
Speaker 1: If you remember in February, I thought they were one
19:47
Speaker 1: of the teams are gonna be the running for Russell
19:49
Speaker 1: Wilson or DeShawn Watson. Look did not look out right.
19:53
Speaker 1: They got Mitched Robiski instead. So I don't I don't
19:56
Speaker 1: believe in Kenny Um again coming out of college at
20:00
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's a fifth year senior. He apparently is just getting
20:03
Speaker 1: destroyed in camp. That's expected Pittsburgh. If you most people
20:07
Speaker 1: that build on models, Pittsburgh's gonna be a top five
20:09
Speaker 1: I'm almost everyone that looks at data for defenses. It's
20:12
Speaker 1: just one of the best defenses of football. So if
20:15
Speaker 1: Mitch Robinsky can be what he keeps talking about being
20:18
Speaker 1: that he went to Buffalo and he really found himself
20:21
Speaker 1: and he has the head for it, yeah, you have
20:23
Speaker 1: a great bet in Pittsburgh. Like, this team is incredibly
20:26
Speaker 1: talented on all offense. Again, they have weapons across the board,
20:29
Speaker 1: and they have one of the best defenses. They just
20:31
Speaker 1: don't have a quarterback, and Big Ben Corpse got over
20:34
Speaker 1: to got over three thousand yards passed and got into
20:37
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So I just it's hard for me to
20:41
Speaker 1: tell people that listen to our show to bet Pittsburgh,
20:44
Speaker 1: but pros are doing it, like I've bet Pittsburgh. It's
20:46
Speaker 1: just it's a value based job. You're betting on the value.
20:49
Speaker 1: And to me, again, we're gonna talk about the Browns.
20:51
Speaker 1: I have the Browns the last place team in this division.
20:53
Speaker 1: So if I think Pittsburgh has a chance to get
20:56
Speaker 1: a wild card spot at seven one, I gotta bet
20:59
Speaker 1: that number. Um, it's not doesn't feel good. Doesn't feel
21:02
Speaker 1: good bit on Mits Rubisky or Rudolph, but it's one
21:06
Speaker 1: of those things where I have to kind of bet
21:07
Speaker 1: the numbers and look at a great defense that's just
21:09
Speaker 1: missing a quarterback. I love how you just gave Big
21:13
Speaker 1: Band credit for going over three thousand yards like it's
21:15
Speaker 1: sucking in. I was shocked. You're not shocked by that.
21:19
Speaker 1: I was shocked. You through for three thousand yards. I
21:21
Speaker 1: remember that guy like one for ten for fifteen yards.
21:24
Speaker 1: It was running back. Yeah, I mean he was bad.
21:27
Speaker 1: He was at six point two yards per per a
21:29
Speaker 1: tempt last year. It was just they threw at the
21:31
Speaker 1: fourth highest rate in the league. It's actually pretty nuts. Yeah, Michell,
21:36
Speaker 1: it's Mitchell Trubisky, Simon, and don't don't disrespect, don't disrespect
21:41
Speaker 1: his name. This is when he proves he was worthy
21:45
Speaker 1: of that top three overall pick, and when he proves
21:50
Speaker 1: that Matt Nagy was the problem in Chicago, not missed
21:53
Speaker 1: true Bisky, Raybon. Is there anything about the Steelers that
21:58
Speaker 1: Simon just said that you agree with? Yeah, I pretty
22:01
Speaker 1: much agree with everything. I mean, I think the Steelers
22:03
Speaker 1: are the best bet in this division. Fun fact about
22:07
Speaker 1: Mitchell true Bisky. He hasn't had a losing record as
22:11
Speaker 1: a starter since his rookie year ever with time town
22:17
Speaker 1: Phil watch Robinson intercepted by sha Kill, intercepted again by
22:23
Speaker 1: sha Kill, Criffin, it's intercepted Trapisky over the middle, sucking
22:31
Speaker 1: Mitchell Christie gets called trying to pour something in there.
22:36
Speaker 1: He's won games every year somehow. So this defense, he
22:39
Speaker 1: had some defenses in Chicago, very talented defense and as
22:43
Speaker 1: Simon mentioned, you know, skill positions talented as well. Deonte Chase,
22:47
Speaker 1: claypoo Pickings, uh, Pat Fryer moves who I love the
22:52
Speaker 1: offensive line. Could still be a little rough around the edges,
22:54
Speaker 1: but it's it's getting better. I think the interior line
22:56
Speaker 1: is gonna be better. Of course, they got nagy Um
22:59
Speaker 1: and Mike Tomin has never had a losing record. I
23:04
Speaker 1: love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna say, we can make
23:06
Speaker 1: one of you guys quit today. There's a lot to
23:09
Speaker 1: like about Ben and betting on Pittsburgh, and I think
23:11
Speaker 1: there if I'm taking any of the wind totals in
23:15
Speaker 1: this division as of right now, uh, it is the
23:18
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers for all those for all those reasons I
23:20
Speaker 1: just mentioned, And like Mitch True, Biscuit is just kind
23:22
Speaker 1: of a wild card in the sense that, like he's
23:26
Speaker 1: been on these kind of teams before where the defense
23:29
Speaker 1: is the strength. Maybe he's got, you know, some some
23:31
Speaker 1: decent guys at the skill positions and he's been able
23:34
Speaker 1: to win. So it hasn't been pretty, but he's been
23:37
Speaker 1: able to get it done so and that's all you
23:38
Speaker 1: would need to to hit the wind total. So I
23:41
Speaker 1: actually like the two. I love that you've made a
23:44
Speaker 1: bold statement. You guys have both basically said Steelers Steelers
23:48
Speaker 1: or Steelers Steelers Steelers over seven and a half. Take
23:53
Speaker 1: him at seven or to one, run with it at
23:55
Speaker 1: plus nine fifty. Why the hell not, because it's Mitchell
23:59
Speaker 1: true bisky ease year. And we just we've just seen
24:03
Speaker 1: this division, right Like, this division it gets it gets
24:06
Speaker 1: ugly in December. We've seen it plenty of times where
24:08
Speaker 1: these teams all of a sudden you look up and
24:10
Speaker 1: the Ravens, Cincinnati, the Browns, Pittsburgh are all playing for
24:15
Speaker 1: first place. That's what happened last year. And the Bengals
24:18
Speaker 1: just they grinded out in the year. So that's why,
24:20
Speaker 1: like we just talked about, Chris, that's good value nine
24:22
Speaker 1: one taking a Pittsburgh team so in that playoffs that
24:25
Speaker 1: it was a plus three thirty to make the playoffs.
24:28
Speaker 1: I mean that I would put a liddle on that
24:29
Speaker 1: as well, even like you know, to kind of get
24:31
Speaker 1: some upside with the wind total, because um, like you said,
24:34
Speaker 1: these teams could just knock each other off, and um,
24:37
Speaker 1: you know, I could easily see the Steelers sneaking in
24:39
Speaker 1: just winning every game like sixteen and thirteen. I mean,
24:42
Speaker 1: this is making me want to bet the Steelers over
24:44
Speaker 1: seven and a half right now. And by the way,
24:45
Speaker 1: it's minus one oh five, so uh, not a bad
24:48
Speaker 1: price either. Alright, So Cleveland Browns nine and a half
24:53
Speaker 1: wins plus one plus two thirty to win the a
24:57
Speaker 1: f C North. Look, Deshaun Watson clouds everything here six
25:02
Speaker 1: games so far. Who knows what will ultimately happened. What
25:06
Speaker 1: do we do here? Just ignore the Browns until we
25:08
Speaker 1: get a better sense of what the final final suspension is.
25:12
Speaker 1: I mean, it depends what you're playing with. Like I
25:14
Speaker 1: just talked about, I think Pittsburgh's better than the Browns
25:16
Speaker 1: this year just because of that with Watson, Like I
25:19
Speaker 1: get the six games he's missing. People have talked about
25:21
Speaker 1: it's it's it's like the perfect six games to mess
25:24
Speaker 1: like they really think the NFL cares that much about him.
25:27
Speaker 1: They set the Browns up to give them a better
25:29
Speaker 1: schedule for this. They don't care. They don't think that way.
25:32
Speaker 1: The money just keeps pouring in, Like if Watson plays,
25:35
Speaker 1: if he doesn't play, they don't care. So I hated
25:38
Speaker 1: all of the Browns, like I hate the I hate
25:40
Speaker 1: the mojo going into it. I don't like the vibes
25:42
Speaker 1: of it. I don't want to bet on them because
25:44
Speaker 1: it's just it's not good. Like you have a guy
25:47
Speaker 1: missing six games and coming in. Um, to me, that's
25:50
Speaker 1: too much going on. Next year, Yeah, I'm gonna probably
25:53
Speaker 1: be in on this Cleveland team because I've seen Stefanski's
25:56
Speaker 1: offense work with Baker Mayfield, who I've been saying for years,
25:59
Speaker 1: I don't think he's that got to a quarterback. Watson
26:01
Speaker 1: is really good, Like we get shooted on this guy's
26:04
Speaker 1: first personal life. The talent is really really really good,
26:08
Speaker 1: like his pocket awareness, his football i Q, his arm strength,
26:12
Speaker 1: all of it, like Watson is incredible. So to me,
26:16
Speaker 1: this is a bad year. This is a wash year.
26:17
Speaker 1: You want to fade the Browns this year. Get a
26:19
Speaker 1: good number nine and a half. I just can't see
26:21
Speaker 1: them reaching that number with a backup for six games
26:24
Speaker 1: and then they have to play their division five more
26:26
Speaker 1: times once Watson gets back. So that's too much. That's
26:29
Speaker 1: too much for the Browns. I'll be fading them. I'm
26:32
Speaker 1: shocked pros. I know pros who are betting this number
26:35
Speaker 1: because they're just so in on Watson. I'm a year away,
26:37
Speaker 1: like I'll be on them next year, but this year
26:39
Speaker 1: I'll be fading Browns. I like the Browns as much
26:44
Speaker 1: as the Steelers in the sense of the value. But
26:47
Speaker 1: I actually think they can get by. With Jacobe Buru said,
26:49
Speaker 1: they like the offensive line is great. Um, the defense,
26:54
Speaker 1: you know, they got Myles Garrett, they got enough pass
26:57
Speaker 1: for us. I think, you know, the secondary, they got
26:59
Speaker 1: Denz Award, they got Newsome, Um, you know, like John
27:04
Speaker 1: Johnson like they their roster is pretty strong, you know,
27:08
Speaker 1: for for them to kind of whether the storm with
27:12
Speaker 1: Jacobe Ris said, I think Kevin Stefanski, Uh, you knows
27:16
Speaker 1: how to kind of win those kind of games. You
27:18
Speaker 1: have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in a great offensive
27:20
Speaker 1: line and again and you're going against the like you
27:23
Speaker 1: mentioned Simon a pretty easy schedule in those games. So
27:26
Speaker 1: I actually think the Browns have some upside. Now maybe
27:29
Speaker 1: it's one of those situations where there might be more
27:32
Speaker 1: value just betting them week to week. Like I actually
27:34
Speaker 1: might be betting on them like just week to week
27:37
Speaker 1: with Brissette in there, because I think people undervalue them
27:40
Speaker 1: and not give them a shot. But um, I think
27:43
Speaker 1: the Browns are are being a little bit slept on.
27:46
Speaker 1: Like I think that the land mines, in my opinion,
27:49
Speaker 1: in this division are the Ravens and the Bengals. Um,
27:52
Speaker 1: you know, I think this division is a lot closer
27:54
Speaker 1: than people think, especially because you know you have the
27:58
Speaker 1: Browns you could play ugly and win, and you have
28:00
Speaker 1: the Steelers who can play ugly and win. So, UM,
28:03
Speaker 1: I like the Steelers more than the Browns, but I
28:06
Speaker 1: like the Browns value wise more than the Ravens or
28:09
Speaker 1: the Bengals. It may be training camp, but after listening
28:14
Speaker 1: to YouTube, I feel like I am in mid season.
28:19
Speaker 1: Waffling changed my mind form because as much as I
28:22
Speaker 1: was all in on the Ravens when we started this
28:24
Speaker 1: part of the podcast, I love the Steelers right now
28:27
Speaker 1: so much that forget about the Ravens, forget about the Bengals.
28:31
Speaker 1: Raybon I percent agree that those are the two teams
28:35
Speaker 1: that maybe there's more questions about reaching the potential that
28:39
Speaker 1: the odds makers have set versus the Steelers over reaching
28:44
Speaker 1: the odds makers numbers. Give me the Steelers, let's rollers
28:57
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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. All right, let's get to the best
30:52
Speaker 1: division in football, and by best I mean craziest, most mercurial.
30:59
Speaker 1: You can't talk about an NFC North without talking about
31:04
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, without talking about his drama in the off season,
31:09
Speaker 1: without talking about whatever his relationship is with Davante Adams.
31:12
Speaker 1: How that might have contributed to Davante Adams leaving about
31:16
Speaker 1: him coming to training camp dressed like Nick Cage from Conair.
31:22
Speaker 1: There's only two men I trust. One of those main
31:26
Speaker 1: It's not you. Whatever tattoos he's gotten, nobody even knows
31:30
Speaker 1: who the guy is throwing too. But look, there's still
31:34
Speaker 1: minus one seventy win the NFC North. Their win total
31:38
Speaker 1: is still ten and a half at home. The past
31:41
Speaker 1: three seasons, Aaron Rodgers is nineteen and nine against the spread,
31:46
Speaker 1: which makes him the most profitable quarterback in the NFL.
31:51
Speaker 1: And they've gone over the wind total for three straight years.
31:55
Speaker 1: So given all that, Simon, we hate Aaron Rodgers and
32:02
Speaker 1: we love to fade the Packers. No Chad hates Aaron Rodgers.
32:05
Speaker 1: I love Aaron Rodgers because me and Aaron evergant relationship.
32:08
Speaker 1: I bet them all during the regular season, and I
32:11
Speaker 1: fade him big on an underdog during the playoffs and
32:14
Speaker 1: I always win. So it's boring. I mean, I'll keep
32:17
Speaker 1: this quick. It's like, yes, Green Bay mathematically, everyone's gonna
32:21
Speaker 1: be on them, like they're they're the best team in
32:23
Speaker 1: this division. They have the best quarterback in this division.
32:26
Speaker 1: They're gonna change styles this season where they're gonna be
32:28
Speaker 1: more defensive, weren't ended where they're just gonna run the
32:30
Speaker 1: ball more. So it's again, we're gonna get the team
32:33
Speaker 1: I love coming up. But yeah, if you like a
32:35
Speaker 1: boring life and you want to take chalk. I can't
32:38
Speaker 1: talk ship to you for taking green Bay, but I
32:41
Speaker 1: just wouldn't do it, Like it's just it's no fun
32:44
Speaker 1: taking a number like this. But if we're sitting here
32:46
Speaker 1: in December, who who do we all think is gonna
32:49
Speaker 1: win this division? Is gonna be green Bay. They're just
32:51
Speaker 1: the most complete team back to back m v P
32:53
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers for a reason, like we have no reason
32:56
Speaker 1: to believe he's declining, So it's to me it's boring.
33:00
Speaker 1: But yeah, green Bay is a good bet in this division,
33:02
Speaker 1: but I just wouldn't do it. Raybon, you bet you
33:05
Speaker 1: you had a time, you had a phase before the
33:08
Speaker 1: back to back m vps were you were believing that
33:11
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was on a downward trajectory. What do you
33:14
Speaker 1: think changed, Mike McCarthy, Amen, I mean, really it did.
33:22
Speaker 1: But I actually don't think green Bay is a good bet.
33:26
Speaker 1: Like I don't think there are a lot to win
33:27
Speaker 1: this division. I think another team um has a shot
33:31
Speaker 1: who I like who will talk about in a second,
33:33
Speaker 1: But I do like green Bay's defense a lot. And
33:35
Speaker 1: and Simon you said it like they're they're going to
33:38
Speaker 1: have to shift to a more run heavy um defensive approach,
33:42
Speaker 1: and I think they can do it because their defense.
33:45
Speaker 1: I mean even in the draft, you know, everyone was
33:48
Speaker 1: looking for them to draft a wide receiver, and you
33:50
Speaker 1: know they get more on the defense. They go, they
33:53
Speaker 1: go on defense, and so I really like the defense,
33:57
Speaker 1: but I am worried about the receiving corps. At some
34:02
Speaker 1: point in this in today's NFL, you are gonna have
34:04
Speaker 1: to throw, and I think it is gonna be a
34:06
Speaker 1: route awakening for Rogers. You know, not having Davonte Adams
34:10
Speaker 1: not only to throw like every you know, one third
34:13
Speaker 1: of his passes too, but also just to get guys
34:17
Speaker 1: like you know, Randall Cobbs single coverage or and now
34:22
Speaker 1: you don't even have mvs who Rodgers was starting to
34:25
Speaker 1: quick with down the field. So I really think it's
34:29
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be tough for them. I think they're
34:31
Speaker 1: another team that's gonna kind of have to win ugly.
34:35
Speaker 1: But they do have Aaron Jones and a J Dillon.
34:37
Speaker 1: Um they are going through some injury. The old line
34:39
Speaker 1: isn't as good I think as it as it has
34:42
Speaker 1: been a years past. So um Green Bays in one
34:45
Speaker 1: of those teams where I just feel like it's the
34:47
Speaker 1: floor is a little bit lower, um than it's been
34:50
Speaker 1: in these past few years, just because I think on
34:53
Speaker 1: the offense, I think there are a lot more fragile
34:55
Speaker 1: without Adams. You know, the receivers, whether it's Cod, whether
34:58
Speaker 1: it's um Sammy watch can Christian Watson's already on the shelf.
35:02
Speaker 1: Like they're they're not very durable. At least it's not
35:06
Speaker 1: looking like they will be right now. And uh, Alan
35:09
Speaker 1: Lazard as the number one, that's that's gonna be totally
35:12
Speaker 1: different when Davante Adams isn't there to take coverage away. Um.
35:16
Speaker 1: So I think this this is a team that you know,
35:20
Speaker 1: they've been crushing their win totals every year they've been
35:23
Speaker 1: you know, they've been great, and yet the books put
35:25
Speaker 1: them at ten and a half, you know, instead of
35:27
Speaker 1: like eleven and eleven and a half. So I think
35:29
Speaker 1: that kind of tells you something. I think there's just
35:30
Speaker 1: a lower floor this here with Green Bay. I think
35:32
Speaker 1: if everyone stays healthy on offense and um, you know,
35:35
Speaker 1: maybe Watson comes brown or um or or dudes breaks
35:39
Speaker 1: out or something, um, they could they could kind of
35:41
Speaker 1: keep it together and win you know, twelve thirteen games
35:44
Speaker 1: but um, I also think, you know, if if the
35:46
Speaker 1: wrong person goes down, even if Rogers misses a couple
35:48
Speaker 1: of games, Uh, this team could easily be you know,
35:51
Speaker 1: in that in that eight, nine and ten when Range like,
35:54
Speaker 1: I just think that offense has has a low floor. Well, look,
35:58
Speaker 1: you guys are both sort of shadowed a little bit
36:01
Speaker 1: for this division in that there are other more interesting teams.
36:05
Speaker 1: As much as I would like to say it's the
36:07
Speaker 1: Bears who will get to you last, it's Minnesota and
36:10
Speaker 1: it's Detroit. So let's start with Minnesota. Their plus three
36:13
Speaker 1: hundred to win the North. They are at nine and
36:17
Speaker 1: a half wins. That's plus one oh five, so pretty
36:21
Speaker 1: good money. They're pretty good price than nine and a
36:23
Speaker 1: half wins, right, But I'm going to start with you
36:26
Speaker 1: because I think this is the team that you were foreshadowing.
36:29
Speaker 1: Are you telling me that you like them to win North?
36:31
Speaker 1: I like the Vikings at this price, you know, plus
36:33
Speaker 1: three hundred. Listen. I like Detroit as well, and we'll
36:37
Speaker 1: get to that. But I don't like Detroit necessarily to
36:39
Speaker 1: win the division. I still think it's you know, kind
36:43
Speaker 1: of the two at the top, and then there's a
36:45
Speaker 1: big drop off between Minnesota and Detroit. But first of all,
36:50
Speaker 1: you have finally, you get an offensive minded head coach.
36:54
Speaker 1: You know in the building here, Kirk Cousins, you know,
36:56
Speaker 1: whatever drama he had with Mike Zimmer. I mean, sixty
37:00
Speaker 1: touchdowns in twenty picks since getting Justin Jefferson over the
37:02
Speaker 1: last two years. I think the offense will be great. Um.
37:06
Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connor is, he's been working under McVeigh. I think
37:08
Speaker 1: he's I think he's gonna take that offense to the
37:11
Speaker 1: next level. Um. And now you're just looking for the
37:13
Speaker 1: defense to be solid, and I think it can be solid.
37:16
Speaker 1: I mean you still have I think you still have
37:18
Speaker 1: solid players at each level of that defense. For Minnesota,
37:22
Speaker 1: it's not an amazing defense. And obviously, um, you know
37:25
Speaker 1: you lose Mike Zimmer, but I still think they have
37:28
Speaker 1: enough players, you know, up and down. You know the
37:31
Speaker 1: defensive line, you got Phillips, you got Hunter, you got Tomlinson,
37:34
Speaker 1: you know Kendricks at linebacker, you got Hicks. You know
37:37
Speaker 1: Cam Dancer is actually turned into one of the better
37:40
Speaker 1: corners in the league. And you got I love Cam
37:43
Speaker 1: buying him the safety and uh, and you still got
37:46
Speaker 1: Harrison Smith there so there's a lot of pieces on
37:48
Speaker 1: that defense, um to where I think they could feel
37:52
Speaker 1: a quality unit on defense. And then I think their
37:55
Speaker 1: offense has a very good chance of being better than
37:59
Speaker 1: the Packer is just because they're more complete. You have
38:03
Speaker 1: Cousins is obviously not as good as Aaron Rodgers, but
38:05
Speaker 1: you have justin Jefferson, you still have Adam Feeling. Um,
38:08
Speaker 1: you're getting Irv Smith's back k j Osburn turned into
38:11
Speaker 1: a pretty good number three, Davin Cook is in the backfield,
38:13
Speaker 1: and you've got a good backup in Madison. Uh, you
38:16
Speaker 1: know the left side of the line is the tackles
38:18
Speaker 1: are pretty good now. Um, So I really like, I
38:21
Speaker 1: really like this Minnesota team. I just think they're a
38:24
Speaker 1: solid all around team, don't have a bunch of like
38:28
Speaker 1: many gaping holes or weaknesses. And I think this is
38:31
Speaker 1: a high upside team, you know, like they're probably like
38:34
Speaker 1: a nine win team, nine and a half, it's probably
38:37
Speaker 1: the right number. But this team I think has a
38:39
Speaker 1: higher ceiling um, you know, and I don't think the floor.
38:43
Speaker 1: I think the floor is high too. So I think
38:44
Speaker 1: this team could it is much more likely to get
38:46
Speaker 1: to like eleven, twelve, thirteen, wins. If you know they
38:49
Speaker 1: get some luck, then they are the fault of like
38:52
Speaker 1: seven six, seven eight wins. I just think this team, Um,
38:56
Speaker 1: I think I think they're gonna be really good on offense,
38:58
Speaker 1: and I think the defense uh is very Tell him, well, look,
39:01
Speaker 1: they've always been a team that has suffered from bad luck, right,
39:03
Speaker 1: and we saw this last year. Too many close games,
39:06
Speaker 1: too many opportunities where a team like that should have
39:09
Speaker 1: made it to the playoffs. They didn't because of quirks,
39:12
Speaker 1: you know, missed kicks, long shot plays, etcetera, etcetera. UM,
39:17
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give Matt Mitchell an opportunity to put in
39:19
Speaker 1: a drop here. I think it's safe to say that
39:22
Speaker 1: head coach new head coach Kevin O'Connell. He is the
39:26
Speaker 1: new man on the Minnesota Vikings. Bout the way chat
39:35
Speaker 1: I like. I like O'Connell twenty to one for Coach
39:39
Speaker 1: of the Year. He's behind a bunch of other coaches
39:44
Speaker 1: like big so three of the last five coaches to
39:46
Speaker 1: win Coach of the Year have been first year, first
39:49
Speaker 1: year with the team. UM, and his odds are longer
39:54
Speaker 1: than like Brian Dable and and Doug Peterson. Like those
39:58
Speaker 1: teams aren't gonna win a games because the averages twelve
40:02
Speaker 1: wins a year over that span, Like, they're not those
40:04
Speaker 1: teams are gonna win enough games. And then you know
40:07
Speaker 1: he's his eyes are longer than Stanley and McDaniels and
40:10
Speaker 1: McDaniels and Hackett. Like, I just think he's the best value,
40:14
Speaker 1: uh for coach of the year. So I like the
40:16
Speaker 1: Vikings UH to win in Division. I think that's a
40:19
Speaker 1: great bet. But I also think, um, if you are
40:21
Speaker 1: bullish on the Vikings, you want to sprinkle in some
40:24
Speaker 1: of that Kevin O'Connell Coach of the year. I mean again,
40:28
Speaker 1: working under McVeigh, you know there's a lot of upside here.
40:31
Speaker 1: I mean he has the pieces to really, um put
40:33
Speaker 1: his offensive mind for use. You like that. I like
40:37
Speaker 1: how I gave a nice little Lizzo Diddy and you
40:40
Speaker 1: both didn't respond, but then you completely ignored it. And
40:44
Speaker 1: when I talk about Kevin O'Connell UH coach of the years,
40:47
Speaker 1: which I think is a really smart bet. Uh, Simon,
40:52
Speaker 1: I don't believe you have anything different to say about
40:54
Speaker 1: the Vikings than Raybon Uh. If you do, please speak it.
40:59
Speaker 1: If not, we got to talk about the lines. Yeah,
41:02
Speaker 1: I would say, you can just play that exact clip
41:04
Speaker 1: of Chris talking about the Vikings for the last four years.
41:07
Speaker 1: Just switch out stuff on Diggs's name for Jefferson's name,
41:10
Speaker 1: and switch out the head coach being there with Zimmer
41:12
Speaker 1: and this head coach. It's like what Chris said, they've
41:15
Speaker 1: said every year with Kirk on that team, great offense,
41:19
Speaker 1: semi good defense. I just don't don't do it like
41:23
Speaker 1: robbing me and chat we fade the Vikings. It pays
41:25
Speaker 1: as well. Don't don't put money on the Vikings. It's
41:28
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. You're gonna hate yourself by November. So you
41:32
Speaker 1: rather put like minus five hundred on the Packers then
41:35
Speaker 1: plus three hundred Vikings. No, I already said I wouldn't
41:38
Speaker 1: bet the Packers, but I think if I'm just looking
41:39
Speaker 1: at this division, that's the best value just because they're
41:41
Speaker 1: the best team. So that's what I'm saying. You said
41:44
Speaker 1: you would rather if that's the best value, you would
41:46
Speaker 1: rather do it, Like we're gonna talk about what I
41:48
Speaker 1: bet on, but like you're just saying, like for the
41:50
Speaker 1: simpleton out here that people the fans of the show,
41:52
Speaker 1: it's just people get sucked in the Vikings because it's
41:55
Speaker 1: flashy toy. But it's like it's Kirk Cousins. Like Kirk
41:58
Speaker 1: Cousins Monday Night. What are we doing so, Raybon, I
42:01
Speaker 1: think I think the point is that, like this time,
42:04
Speaker 1: is not saying he'd rather bet on the Packers versus
42:07
Speaker 1: the Vickings. He's probably saying, I'd rather bet on the
42:09
Speaker 1: Lions versus the Vikings. Speak to that lines, Chad. We've
42:15
Speaker 1: been talking about it for about four months now. We're
42:18
Speaker 1: in Detroit at this point where Detroit Lions Podcast. It's
42:20
Speaker 1: gonna be last year. It's again, it's the different last year.
42:26
Speaker 1: I just knew that these bad teams are gonna be bad, right,
42:28
Speaker 1: Like I rarely bet the under on these bottom teams,
42:32
Speaker 1: Like I bet the under in Houston, I bet the
42:33
Speaker 1: under on the Jaguars, I bet the under on Detroit.
42:36
Speaker 1: That's not normal for me, Like normally I want to
42:37
Speaker 1: bet these teams over because I always think they're gonna
42:40
Speaker 1: turn a page. And this Detroit team just everything they've done,
42:44
Speaker 1: from the way they've drafted, the way they've built their
42:46
Speaker 1: coaching tree out. I love this team like I'm all
42:50
Speaker 1: in on Swift and fantasy. Like there's just a lot
42:52
Speaker 1: of things about this Lions team that I love, and
42:54
Speaker 1: it all comes back to the offensive line and this
42:56
Speaker 1: defensive line, Like they're really building out smart style and
43:01
Speaker 1: we're looking at a division that to me, it's up
43:04
Speaker 1: for grabs, Like I don't see that huge of a
43:06
Speaker 1: difference between the lines and the vikings. Like you can
43:09
Speaker 1: say how you want about Kirk Cousins, Jared Golf has
43:11
Speaker 1: been to a super Bowl. Like, sure, we can say
43:13
Speaker 1: that's just basically rams thing, but it's like I've seen
43:15
Speaker 1: Jared Golf make the same throw as I've seen Kirk
43:17
Speaker 1: Cousins make. And the fact of this team, it feels
43:20
Speaker 1: like believes in him, Like they gave him another year
43:22
Speaker 1: to be their starter. I love that, Like I love
43:25
Speaker 1: the whole mojo of this Lions team. Getting a little
43:28
Speaker 1: scary chat. We've seen how they've been bet up now
43:30
Speaker 1: right Like we've all heard the numbers. I think they're
43:32
Speaker 1: one of the the biggest bets right now at Caesar's
43:34
Speaker 1: just because they have a sports book in Detroit. But
43:37
Speaker 1: it's like when you see the numbers, the amount of
43:39
Speaker 1: people on this over, it's a little scary, but nothing
43:41
Speaker 1: changed we like them at twelve the one they win
43:43
Speaker 1: this division. I think they're um. At one point there
43:46
Speaker 1: were like five hundred, uh like five to one to
43:49
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Now they're down to four to one.
43:51
Speaker 1: So we love Detroit. They've been bent down, but I
43:54
Speaker 1: still think there's a good value on a team that
43:56
Speaker 1: if they just can start out right like last year
43:58
Speaker 1: we talked about, right, yeah, they don't win till Week thirteen.
44:01
Speaker 1: They can't let that happen, right, They gotta win early
44:03
Speaker 1: on here. So if this team get out a couple
44:05
Speaker 1: of wins early on, I just love the moxi of
44:08
Speaker 1: this team. I love the coaching stop just a shock
44:10
Speaker 1: your world kind of teams. So to me, I'll be
44:12
Speaker 1: on Detroit all season. Lions finish three thirteen in one,
44:17
Speaker 1: but we're eleven and six against the spread, first team
44:20
Speaker 1: in the Wild Cut Era since nineteen to cover its
44:24
Speaker 1: games in a season with three wins or fewer. Raybon, Uh,
44:32
Speaker 1: do you have a feeling about the Lions. I love
44:35
Speaker 1: the Lions. I just don't think they win a division
44:37
Speaker 1: like I like the Lions because I just think, uh,
44:40
Speaker 1: they're they're underrated, like I think they are. They are
44:43
Speaker 1: closer to a team and they're win totals at six
44:47
Speaker 1: and a half. Like, I think it's a lot. It
44:49
Speaker 1: would be a lot to ask for them to beat
44:50
Speaker 1: out the Packers and the Vikings. But I do I
44:54
Speaker 1: do share simon sentiment with Jared Goff. I think people
44:56
Speaker 1: are underrated him. Like we just did the pod with
44:59
Speaker 1: with JJ Zachery Eastern and like we essentially decided that
45:02
Speaker 1: we're just gonna pass on every quarterback and just draft
45:04
Speaker 1: Jared Goff for free um. But like, seriously, the offensive
45:09
Speaker 1: line is the top three offensive line. They have no
45:10
Speaker 1: weakness on the offensive line. Uh, their skill positions are great,
45:15
Speaker 1: and they're gonna get Jamison Williams at some point. They
45:18
Speaker 1: already have, you know they I'm on ros st Brown
45:20
Speaker 1: broke out in a major way last year. DJ Chark's
45:23
Speaker 1: a solid. You know number two will turn into the
45:26
Speaker 1: number three when Williams comes back. And uh, DeAndre Swift
45:31
Speaker 1: is great. The reason why I don't love like the
45:35
Speaker 1: Okay make the playoffs when the division is I think,
45:39
Speaker 1: you know, Hutchinson is nice, but I still think the
45:44
Speaker 1: back end is gonna struggle for detruit. I think, you know,
45:47
Speaker 1: if when they don't get home I still think they're
45:49
Speaker 1: gonna get torched. I think there'll be in a lot
45:51
Speaker 1: of shootouts though, and I think they'll actually be able
45:53
Speaker 1: to win some because their offense is criminally underrated. So
45:56
Speaker 1: I'm I'm with you, Simon, I am loving these guys
45:58
Speaker 1: in fantasy. Uh, I just don't really think the office.
46:01
Speaker 1: Like the the only whole quote unquote on the offense
46:05
Speaker 1: is really Jared Goff. But like you said, Simon, we've
46:08
Speaker 1: seen him with pieces around him, Uh do do decently.
46:13
Speaker 1: You couldn't expect him to do well last year in
46:15
Speaker 1: that situation. It's totally different out So like the coaching stuff.
46:18
Speaker 1: So I like the lines over six and a half wins.
46:21
Speaker 1: If you want to sprinkle something to make the playoffs. Sure,
46:23
Speaker 1: I just don't see them as an upside team because
46:26
Speaker 1: I just I still think their secondary um is gonna
46:29
Speaker 1: be shaky and that's ultimately going to be her downfall.
46:32
Speaker 1: People all the time that Jared Golf, go back and
46:34
Speaker 1: watch the Mexico City game with him against the Chiefs again.
46:37
Speaker 1: It's one of the greatest football games ever played. I
46:39
Speaker 1: think they scored fifty four. The Chiefs scored like fifty one.
46:42
Speaker 1: Golf has it in him. He just needs the pieces
46:45
Speaker 1: around him, which again we just talked about it. He
46:47
Speaker 1: has it around him. Uh. The only other team to
46:50
Speaker 1: talk about UH are these Chicago Bears. And in a
46:55
Speaker 1: pre season in which social media, which has been influential
46:58
Speaker 1: for years, has never been bigger because of the advent
47:02
Speaker 1: of things like TikTok, how Instagram has changed its feed
47:06
Speaker 1: um highlights are available the second something happens around the league.
47:12
Speaker 1: You get insight, you get details, you get alerts. The
47:18
Speaker 1: only thing that has been a highlight for the Bears
47:21
Speaker 1: this preseason they're doing orange helmets for one of their games. No,
47:26
Speaker 1: you didn't see the only highlight this little kid dressed
47:28
Speaker 1: up as justin fields like legit had his visor, had
47:32
Speaker 1: the sweat bands at the whole Shima like everything even better.
47:38
Speaker 1: My point is, My point is I don't think we
47:41
Speaker 1: need to spend any time on the Chicago Bears. The
47:44
Speaker 1: NFC nor six and a half wins. Uh. Plush is
47:49
Speaker 1: the price on the over. I think we can all
47:51
Speaker 1: agree this is a team that's got a it's got
47:53
Speaker 1: a long way to go. Yep, I bet, I mean
47:57
Speaker 1: I like I like a bet and adjusted alliance for
47:59
Speaker 1: teams I think they're gonna sell. I bet they're under
48:00
Speaker 1: a five. Bet another under a four and a half.
48:03
Speaker 1: Bet them have worst record. It's it's nothing against Justin
48:07
Speaker 1: Fields or this team. It's more about I think the
48:11
Speaker 1: last regime screwed them over so bad that they just
48:14
Speaker 1: need a full tear down rebuild and could be shocked.
48:18
Speaker 1: You know, Justin Fields, We've seen moments of flash of
48:20
Speaker 1: him being really really athletic and competitive. We're also see
48:24
Speaker 1: him being really dumb. So I'm just looking at the
48:26
Speaker 1: BEARSS team that the future is exciting, right if just
48:30
Speaker 1: you gotts see flashes of Justin Fields said, you're back
48:32
Speaker 1: in You're excited for the future. But this year is
48:35
Speaker 1: going to be ugly and going to be painful. So
48:37
Speaker 1: I I'm gonna do my best not to be really negative.
48:39
Speaker 1: I know how many Bears fans we have, but man,
48:43
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be bad for these fans this year.
48:47
Speaker 1: Uh that's my favorite under. It's your favorite Bears under
48:51
Speaker 1: six and a half. I mean, what listen, Justin Fields,
48:55
Speaker 1: he has upside, right, but he had the worst QBR
48:58
Speaker 1: of any quarterback and it league last year. Now let's
49:01
Speaker 1: say you say, okay, well, he can take a step forward. Well,
49:05
Speaker 1: to take a step forward, you need pieces around him.
49:08
Speaker 1: They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
49:10
Speaker 1: They have one of the worst receiving cords in the league.
49:13
Speaker 1: They're relying on a couple of rookies in the secondary.
49:15
Speaker 1: The the veteran in their secondary has been declining for
49:18
Speaker 1: the last four years straight. They lost one of their
49:21
Speaker 1: best pass rushers. I mean, this team really doesn't have
49:26
Speaker 1: like a strength, like it's like Robert Quinnon and Roquan
49:30
Speaker 1: Smith because and even Smith didn't have a good year
49:33
Speaker 1: last year. So it's like it's it's team. It's hard
49:36
Speaker 1: to even find a strength on this team. We're saying
49:39
Speaker 1: the Lions are a little bit underrated. I think the
49:41
Speaker 1: Vikings are underrated. The Package are still gonna be good,
49:43
Speaker 1: even if maybe they're not as dominant as they weren't
49:45
Speaker 1: years past. Like the division is gonna be tough for them.
49:48
Speaker 1: All of their their easiest games are are on the road,
49:51
Speaker 1: like Atlanta is on the road, the Gens is on
49:53
Speaker 1: the road, the Giants are on the road, like one
49:56
Speaker 1: of the Detroit games on the road. Like it's it's
49:58
Speaker 1: just gonna be really off for them to see I
50:01
Speaker 1: just struggle to see how they get to seven wins.
50:05
Speaker 1: And I like what you did the assignment with um,
50:08
Speaker 1: you know, getting some more some better odds by betting
50:10
Speaker 1: them to go even lower, because yeah, I could absolutely
50:13
Speaker 1: see this team, you know, going like three and fourteen,
50:15
Speaker 1: four and thirteen something like that. I think what we're
50:18
Speaker 1: gonna do is we wrap up the podcast right now.
50:21
Speaker 1: We said we were going to get betting takeaways from
50:24
Speaker 1: each division, and I feel like we've done that. But
50:25
Speaker 1: the best betting takeaway from the a f C North,
50:28
Speaker 1: to me, it's probably the Steelers over seven and a
50:32
Speaker 1: half winds um or the Steelers plus three hundred to
50:36
Speaker 1: win the division. And since we couldn't find a consensus
50:40
Speaker 1: on the Lions and the Vikings or the Packers, I
50:44
Speaker 1: think the consensus is Bears under six and a half
50:48
Speaker 1: wins in the NFC North. Yeah, that's why. That's that
50:52
Speaker 1: in the lines like the go over there to my
50:55
Speaker 1: two biggest bets right now for this division. Yeah, I
50:57
Speaker 1: like there. I like the Lions over six and a
50:58
Speaker 1: half wins as well. I just don't like like the
51:00
Speaker 1: I don't think they have a great shot of hitting
51:02
Speaker 1: up like the right right right, but like I, I
51:07
Speaker 1: like the offensive side of all. Fuck it, we're going
51:10
Speaker 1: Bears understix and a half win, so that's our best.
51:13
Speaker 1: Um the NFC North. Thank you to Chris Raban, who
51:16
Speaker 1: is the host of the Fantasy Flex podcast, as well
51:19
Speaker 1: as so many other things that the Action Network. To
51:21
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, Simon Hunter. For producer
51:25
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman. Download the podcast from
51:28
Speaker 1: Apple podcast Spotify, whenever you get your podcasts, rate reviews,
51:32
Speaker 1: subscribe us five stars, feedback as the gifts, say whatever
51:35
Speaker 1: you want until next time, dude,