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The Muster- Phil Duncan: Sunshine! · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: This is the muster on Hockanui. Time to catch up
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: with Phil Duncan out of Weatherwatch.
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: And I'm here to remind you of the mess you
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: left when you went away. It's not fair to deny
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: me a crisis.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: One of the great cassettes of all time, that Jagged
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Little Pill by Alanis Morissette. Good afternoon, Phil.
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: G'day, g'day. Yes, I agree. That was one of my
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: first albums.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Undefeated Alanis Morissette. As is weather watching your forecasting. Look,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: we've had a pretty, we've had a purple patch down
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: here in Southland recently.
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's, the weather's really changed really across the country
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: and It's funny because I've been using the frost maps
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: in my daily weather videos, and this week is the
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: first week in a long time that there is nothing
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: showing up, like nothing, not even on the tops of
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: the mountains. And as you go into the weekend, especially
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: around Sunday and then going into the start of next week,
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: it gets even warmer. So, yeah, definitely seeing a lift
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: in temperatures as we're seeing in Southland. You know, Gore
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: is going to be into the 20s for the next
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: few days ahead through to the start of next week.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: And we're forecasting, you know, 21, 22. There is a
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: chance if the sun's out and you've got the right
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: conditions that, you know, it could go another degree or
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: two higher than that, which means we might be looking
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: at 23s or 24s possibly this weekend. So, yeah, it's
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: going to be a warmer weekend, although there could be
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: a little bit of cloud around. And because we do
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: have high pressure and it's that time of year where
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: the nights are still a little bit cool and the
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: days are warm, you end up with fog patches or
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: low clouds. So we've got that possibility over the next
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: few days as well.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: But let's not kid ourselves. It isn't quite time to
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: pack up the fire just yet, or is it?
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's spring. And so with spring, you know, people
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: always do the, oh, so much for spring when you
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: get a cold change. But the, you know, the reality
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: of spring is it is winter slowly fading away and
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: hints of summer slowly coming in. And so next week,
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: it is a reminder that we're only just leaving winter.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: So there's a cold front coming through. It comes through
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: on Tuesday later in the day or, you know, sort
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: of Tuesday p.m. and brings a little bit of rain.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: It may not necessarily be a huge amount, but you
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: might get... There could be 20 millimetres over Tuesday and
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: Wednesday coming through. And then Wednesday's colder, back to a
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: high of only 12 degrees. So 10 degrees taking off
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: your maximums. And the overnight lows drop down to 5.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: And then as we get to Thursday and Friday, the
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: maximums drop to 11. and fairly cloudy, and overnight lows
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: of 4, with the wind chill getting down around 2
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: or 3. So it's going to be a little bit cold,
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: a little bit damp, and a bit cloudy next week.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: So just keep that in mind for the newborn livestock,
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: the newborn lambs in particular. I think newborn calves probably
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: won't be too stressed with that, but the lambs might be.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: So it's a little bit cold and damp next week,
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: and then it slowly kind of warms back up again,
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: not very quickly, still got overnight lows of 4, but
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: the maximums go up to sort of into the teens
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: by next weekend. So it's a bit of a reset,
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: and it'll feel cold because of the warmth that we've
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: got between now and the start of next week.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Weird fog in the south this morning. Unseasonal.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I always think of the weather in
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: six-month boundaries. So if you think of the weather we've
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: got now, here we are in the middle of October.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: So you go November, December, January, February, March, April. That's
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: the opposite of where we're at. So to have fog
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: in April is really normal. And so fog at this
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: time of the year is normal, provided that we don't
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: have wind. And so you can still get fog. It
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: doesn't usually linger as long as it does six months
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: from now, simply because the days are getting longer rather
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: than shorter. But we do get fog patches, and it's
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: usually to do with the fact that you've got these
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: sort of big differences in temperatures, kind of like what
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: we get in six months from now as well. And so, yeah,
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: we do get fog, but it usually burns off quicker
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: at this time of the year. But you can get
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: foggy patches through October. They're usually less likely in November
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: because just simply the days are so long.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: The temperature was around 17 degrees yesterday, but various parts
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: of the region were talking about easterlies, and there was
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: a bit of a nip in there. Is this going
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: to be a theme for the next week or two?
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: So we've got, at the moment, part of that reason
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: is we've had high pressure, or actually, at the moment,
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: high pressure is east of Dunedin. and south of the
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: Chatham Islands. And that placement just kind of brings in
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: that nor'easter down the coastline and spills over into Southland.
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: And it's not warm. Nor'easters at this time of the
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: year aren't warm anywhere in New Zealand. They are kind
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: of a cold wind. They warm up more in northern
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: parts of the country going into summer, like where I
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: am in Auckland, northeasterly, and summer can be beautiful because
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: it's subtropical. But at this time of the year, they're
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: pretty miserable. Next week, like I said, we get this
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: northerly wind. That's why it warms up and northwesterlies. And
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: these winds are coming from, you know, the Coral Sea
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: and Queensland and New South Wales. So that's why it's
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: not cold. By the time we reach Wednesday, the airflow
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: is coming from south of Tasmania. And so that's why
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: it gets colder next week. And that sticks around. You know,
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: we've got these colder winds through to next weekend. And
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: then next weekend, when I said it warms up a
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: little bit, That's because we've got the next big high
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: crossing over the country, light winds again. And then the
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: following week, so we're talking about the 19th of October onwards,
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: it's more of a westerly flow. And the next high
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: will be up over the North Island, which means you'll
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: probably get a burst of northwesterlies going into sort of
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: that week. And so a couple of cold fronts coming
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: through and temperatures changing again. So we still see very
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: much a spring weather pattern. The longest weather map I've
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: got that I'm looking at right now goes through to
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: the 25th of October, Labor Weekend, I think. And that
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: forecast shows westerly winds and West Coast rain, cloud and
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: showers for you guys, and lower temperatures with the polar
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: boundary up over Christchurch and Greymouth. So we're not done
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: with spring at all, but it's not going to be
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: as wet as it's been. And the cold snaps are
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: getting fewer and further between, but they're still coming in
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: this month.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So this is classic El Nino that's still to be experienced?
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: 100%. Yep, it's classic El Nino. It's classic spring. In
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: saying that, we are having some anomalies with temperatures, a
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: few bits and pieces here and there. But overall, it
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: is pretty classic. There's nothing really jumping out. There's no
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: major storms at the moment either. We're not seeing a
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: lot of severe weather around the country. And sometimes October,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: the MetService team can be just, every day, belting out
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: all these severe weather warnings. At the moment, they've got
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: a pretty quiet period of weather. So for this time
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: of year, it's not too bad. But El Niño tends
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: to do that. El Niño tends to remove a lot
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: of the storms, and we just get this relentless kind
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: of spring-autumn weather pattern.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Now, Phil, you've got a sophisticated weather system there called
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: the Weather Watch Generator 5000 Weathertron. Put him for Te
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Anau tomorrow. Te Anau Young Farmers has their annual bark up.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: What's happening?
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: Uh... Yeah, yeah. No AI in this system.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Absolutely not.
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah. It's looking for tomorrow, did you say?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, tomorrow in Te Anau.
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: Oh, yeah, it's looking good tomorrow. 20 degrees, overnight low
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: of 9, partly cloudy, probably mostly sunny. It's a beautiful day. Yeah,
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: it should be a good one. It's a good one
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: across the whole South Island, really, tomorrow.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: It's a good day for a good day, Phil Duncan
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: of Weatherwatch. Always appreciate your time.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: Thanks very much, mate. Have a good weekend.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Phil Duncan of Weather Watch. Make sure you give him
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: a follow on his social channels as well as YouTube.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Nigel Wood heads up next, based in South Otago. This
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: is The Muster.