Latest / The Fourcast / Keir Starmer on the brink - what next for Labour?

Transcript

Keir Starmer on the brink - what next for Labour? · The Fourcast

0:00
I can't see how he can survive. Most of the public just think
0:03
that the past week or so has confirmed everything that they
0:06
thought that there's one rule for the rich and powerful and
0:09
another rule for everyone else. We're in real danger now of a
0:14
fundamentally decent Prime Minister being ousted for an
0:18
error judgement which he made, along with almost every national
0:21
newspaper writer, lots and lots of columnists, on the base of
0:24
the same facts that are available at time.
0:26
It makes it very important that the next leader who comes in
0:29
comes in absolutely determined to clean up politics.
0:32
If there is a leadership contest, is it conceivable that
0:35
Angela Rayner can be forgiven for having broken the rules on
0:39
tax and brought back as Prime Minister?
0:45
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
0:47
The government is in full on leadership crisis with pressure
0:50
building on Keir Starmer to resign.
0:52
The Scottish Labour leader Anas Sawa was the first major figure
0:55
to go over the top, saying there have been too many mistakes and
0:58
Starmer should go. A lot of the cabinets are out
1:01
declaring their support for the PM now, but it is clear things
1:05
are moving fast. Starmer's chief of staff Morgan
1:08
McSweeney quit on Sunday over his advice to appointing Peter
1:11
Mandelson as U.S. ambassador. Today, the number 10 director of
1:14
communications, Tim Allen, also quit.
1:16
So what next? And if Starmer is going, what
1:19
and who should follow? Joining me, Polly Toynbee, a
1:22
columnist at The Guardian, Tom Baldwin, former Labour
1:25
communications chief, who has also written a biography of Sir
1:28
Keir Starmer and Luke Trill, executive director of the more
1:31
in common UK think tank Polly. I mean, first of all, in terms
1:34
of what should happen, I mean, you are, you are sort of with a
1:38
heavy heart now saying Starmer's got to go.
1:42
I've always been a strong supporter of his.
1:43
I thought he was going to be the great stabiliser but I think as
1:48
we've reached this point I can't see how he can survive.
1:52
How do you campaign in Scotland when the well respected head of
1:56
the Scottish Labour Party has called for him to go?
1:59
I think you know as one you've got one resignation after
2:04
another. There's a way you reach a
2:06
tipping point, and I think we're at it.
2:08
So it's inevitable now in in your mind.
2:10
Well, nothing's ever inevitable in politics, but it looks that
2:13
way. Tom, I mean you, you have been
2:17
one of the few voices out there saying he shouldn't have to go,
2:21
he shouldn't be blamed. It it looks like one way or
2:25
another time is up, isn't it? I don't know one of the few
2:28
voices, as you just said, yeah, there's got a lot of the cabinet
2:31
coming out. That's just today, but it's
2:33
taken a while. Yeah, well, I think there's
2:36
probably more support for Kirstan remaining than you would
2:40
think from I have a sort of quick view of the media at the
2:43
moment. You know, there is this sort of
2:44
excitement and Glee at the idea we're re entering that cycle of
2:47
getting rid of our Prime Minister every one to two years.
2:49
I think the rest of the world must think we're nuts.
2:52
We begin to look like Italy or something in the 1980s and 90s.
2:55
And yeah, we have a government with a majority, 260 working
2:59
majority 263 1/2 years ago to the next general election, less
3:03
than 1/3 of the way for his apartment.
3:05
And we're in real danger now of a fundamentally decent Prime
3:11
Minister being ousted for an error judgement, which he made
3:15
along with almost every national newspaper writer, lots and lots
3:18
of columnists. Nigel Farage named a few on the
3:22
basis of the same facts that are available at time.
3:25
And that's pretty identifying, I think.
3:28
But but do you, do you feel it slipping away now?
3:31
I think it's becoming more likely that Keir Starmer is
3:33
going to go. I'm not saying I think people
3:35
are expressing certainty about what happens next.
3:38
So usually very often end up looking foolish.
3:41
It is looking more likely you have to go and be replaced.
3:44
As I said, a piece of reputable observer the other day, but
3:47
simultaneously find it make it harder.
3:48
This the nature of the scandals make it harder to find someone
3:51
to replace him. The idea that if the great sin
3:54
is being too close and too trusting a Peter Madison, you go
3:57
for where streeting might seem that odd.
3:59
The idea that at a time when you know, ethics being raised in
4:03
public life again, the automatic choice then is Angela Rayner,
4:06
who had to resign, well five months ago over an ethical
4:09
issue. Now let's not have a go at
4:10
either of them. But I think there is there's
4:13
something weird about this particular story which makes it
4:16
more likely that Kier goes and harder to replace him.
4:20
Luke, I mean, the public are often ahead on these kinds of
4:23
questions. Where are they on on this?
4:27
I think most of the public just think that the past week or so
4:30
has confirmed everything that they thought about politics,
4:34
that the system is rigged, that there's one rule for the rich
4:37
and powerful and another rule for everyone else, and that the
4:40
system itself is addicted to chaos.
4:43
So and I think the interesting thing is when we talk to people
4:46
in focus groups, it's quite clear this goes beyond, in the
4:49
public's mind, one Prime Minister or one government.
4:52
It's a sense that politics, you know, is chaos Now.
4:55
It can't deliver that. The government isn't in control
4:59
of events and that is what is driving people to say, do you
5:02
know what? We've had enough of trying to
5:03
preserve and improve our institutions.
5:05
We want to roll the dice on something new and we don't mind
5:08
if it burns it all down. I mean, Alastair Campbell has
5:10
sort of raised this question in the last 24 hours about, you
5:13
know, is Britain becoming ungovernable?
5:16
I think that's the right question to ask.
5:18
As Tom said, Keir Starmer, a very decent man.
5:21
Nobody is impugning his morals, abusing his judgement and
5:25
whether he's made the right calls.
5:26
But a thoroughly decent man who was uncontaminated by any kind
5:30
of the kind of filth people suspect about about politics.
5:34
And you do wonder whether in fact whoever takes over will,
5:38
within a short time, they might get a little bounce, within a
5:40
short time, find themselves also caught by this public spirit of
5:45
hating politicians, hating Westminster, refusing to be
5:48
governed in a way. But to what extent, I mean,
5:51
let's jump if you like to say, OK, it looks like Keir Starmer
5:57
might have to go. So, so let's talk about the what
5:59
next and the the people who might might be in the line as
6:03
Tom says. I mean, you know, this scandal
6:08
is going to keep unravelling for quite some time.
6:11
How does a new leader avoid being drowned by it as well?
6:15
Well, it's quite unlikely that a new leader will be involved in
6:19
the particular mandals and scandal and the papers that come
6:22
out, it's all referred. But isn't it beyond the
6:24
specifics? I mean, it isn't.
6:26
I mean, you know, as, as everyone has said, you know,
6:28
Keir Starmer's mistakes with Mandelson are, are limited.
6:33
You know, it's not that he was part of that scandal.
6:36
The the point is that the scandal is so vast and so grubby
6:39
and so awful that it is tainting the whole government kind of no
6:43
matter what, because most people don't go into the, the reeds of
6:46
exactly who said what, who knew what, who recommended who, who
6:49
is Morgan McSweeney. It's just this is a massive
6:51
scandal and it taints the Labour government.
6:53
How is that not going to affect the next leader as well?
6:56
It makes it very important that the next leader who comes in
6:58
comes in absolutely determined to clean up politics.
7:01
Labour said it in the manifesto, Keir Starmer said it, but
7:04
they've done very little. Not the sort of things people
7:06
notice whoever comes in has to say, right?
7:09
Take money out of politics. Really dramatic.
7:13
You know, trade unions won't fund Labour, business won't fund
7:16
Tories. From now on we're going to have
7:19
only small donations from members and of course a certain
7:23
amount from the government as well to support.
7:25
I mean, isn't, isn't not enough money in politics one of the
7:27
reasons Mandelson was doing what he was doing?
7:30
Well, you know, Mandelson felt he wasn't paid enough, you know,
7:34
as a, as a, as a minister. That's why he always wanted
7:36
these lavish houses that he couldn't really afford.
7:38
Well, that's Mandelson's character.
7:40
I think a lot of people in politics don't expect to be very
7:42
rich, but he plainly expected himself to be filthy rich.
7:46
He thought it was just fine and most people don't.
7:49
I think that whoever is the Labour leader has to make their
7:53
signal a clean up and it's not that difficult to do, you just
7:57
have to be brave. Is it?
7:59
Is it, you know, is it doable, you know, in a way that the
8:01
public will believe, do you think?
8:03
I mean, we heard Gordon Brown at the weekend talking about his
8:07
plan for decontaminating politics.
8:09
It was a plan for Keir Starmer. And Keir Starmer hasn't done it
8:13
all. Well, strangely, I think, you
8:16
know, I was thinking this in September, there's a sort of
8:18
departure of Peter Mamus and Angela Rayner in quick
8:20
succession were an example, I think of a Prime Minister who
8:24
actually does hold have very, very high standards.
8:27
When new facts to come before him, he says, right, well,
8:31
you're out the door rather than clinging to people out of
8:34
loyalty. And and so I, I think there is a
8:38
sort of different ethical standard to this Prime Minister.
8:40
But you're right. I don't think that's how this
8:44
terrible world of perceptions that that that we live in.
8:47
He, he, he, he, he's being seen. My worry about dedicating the
8:52
next three years to sort of a degree of constitutional change
8:55
and clean up of politics is that sounds great now.
8:57
It sounded great when we were talking about the expenses
8:59
scandal. In the end, I don't think that's
9:02
what most people care about at home and what most people vote
9:07
on in the next election. I think people are worried
9:09
about, you know, paying electricity bills.
9:11
They're worried about their schools, they're worried about
9:12
their NHS, they're worried about what's happening abroad.
9:15
And, you know, part of the problem with politics is, is
9:19
actually the way it's eating itself, because only ever
9:22
talking about politics rather than about the people.
9:25
So yes, I am in favour of higher ethical standards.
9:27
I am in favour of saying, you know, we'll have stronger rules.
9:30
I don't think that should be the definition of what Labour does
9:33
for the next three years, but. Is it politics easing itself
9:35
when Keir Starmer, as you say, was totally focused on the cost
9:38
of living in recent times? But that's not how.
9:43
He is perceived and the world outside, yeah, which is very,
9:45
very dangerous. And yet when Luke does his focus
9:48
groups, he comes out as absolutely untrustworthy and
9:52
unpopular. It is quite difficult to be
9:56
perceived as focused on these really important policy issues
10:00
when no one's reporting them. I mean, yeah.
10:03
There's, there's. It's just not true.
10:04
Well, I mean, it is. It's kind of true that that that
10:07
you know. I would His message is
10:10
constantly on the news every day.
10:11
But if if you see he does events, you know, did an event
10:14
on Thursday, it's actually quite an important speech about prime
10:16
place, about national identity. Nothing.
10:19
It was all about Peter Manson. Peter Manson.
10:21
And he knew that. He knew that wouldn't make the
10:23
front pages. But I think it.
10:24
Was the middle of the storm. Yeah, but but there is a degree
10:28
to which every policy announcement now it's reported
10:32
on by the lobby rather than specialists.
10:34
It's done on the basis of what is the cunning strategy behind
10:37
us, how they're tricking you? Or does this help bolster
10:39
someone's leadership prospects or who's up, who's down?
10:41
Not about the outcome on people out there.
10:45
And that is one of the things that that separates people from
10:47
politics. They look at this village going
10:49
on talking about itself endlessly.
10:51
And I think they're not talking about me.
10:53
They don't care about me. Luke, I mean, why do you think
10:56
people don't respond to Starmer's message over the last
11:01
few months and don't seem to believe it?
11:03
Well, I just, I think there's a couple of things.
11:04
I think firstly, the government got off to a very bad start.
11:08
I think the combination of the Rose Garden speech, which seemed
11:13
to promise more of the same freebie gate, which made it look
11:16
like the promise to be a different kind of politics, and
11:19
the Winter fuel allowance basically tainted them from the
11:22
outset. You've got quite a short window
11:24
to connect with the public now. And what that did was it made it
11:28
much more difficult to communicate the positive agenda
11:31
because Tom's absolutely right. When we poll on things like
11:33
workers rights, renters rights, the cost of living measures in
11:37
the budget, so prescriptions, train fares, energy levy, they
11:41
are popular, but they have nowhere near the level of cut
11:44
through of those negatives. So things like as I said, the
11:47
winter fuel, farmers, inheritance tax, National
11:50
Insurance. So I think it's a combination of
11:53
self-inflicted wounds. But then also, you know, I
11:57
thought one of the most baffling things to happen was the
12:00
briefing before Christmas when just sort of out of nowhere this
12:03
attack was launched on West Streeting.
12:05
Because when we then split people in focus groups to say
12:08
why are they fighting amongst themselves again, it sounds like
12:10
the Tories all over again. So I think it's a combination of
12:13
things not cutting through but not having helped themselves
12:15
either. I agree that, and I think almost
12:19
the original sin of this government was the noise coming
12:24
out down St. in those first few weeks wasn't about changing the
12:26
country. There's all this background
12:29
anonymous briefing against Sue Grey about where their desks
12:32
are, what their job title was, what their pay levels were.
12:34
And I think that gives the impression to the public that
12:37
you're interested in yourselves, not them.
12:39
And so, so I, I do think there's a kind of culture running
12:42
through the advisor class, journalists, politicians now
12:46
where honestly, you know, they're talking to themselves
12:49
about themselves and they get very, very excited about it and
12:51
the public look at the spectacle and are recoil from it.
12:55
And I don't, I don't, it doesn't really mean sort of populist
12:58
thing. It's just, why are you always
13:00
obsessing about what happens in Westminster and what happens in
13:02
my life? There is one quite exceptional
13:04
thing about the times that we're in now which effects absolutely
13:08
the way Labour people think, the way anybody who's not on the
13:12
right thinks, which is the fear that Farage will take over, that
13:17
the far right, the hard right, will take over at the next
13:20
election. And the idea that and a very
13:23
unpopular leader can go on just because he's decent, they've got
13:28
to find somebody who has a good chance of preventing that.
13:32
That that's what makes this urgent for you, is it?
13:34
It makes the the threat for Nigel Farage.
13:35
Urgent. Why he's under such pressure.
13:38
More pressure. He, he, he hasn't been given
13:39
time. He might have been, if it
13:41
weren't for the sense of emergence.
13:43
Just in terms of the lessons, Luke, I mean for, for you know,
13:45
whatever comes next. I mean, you mentioned these
13:47
early mistakes, winter fuel payment, farmers, inheritance
13:49
tax. Can you explain why these are
13:52
nationally so unpopular when actually they didn't affect huge
13:56
numbers of people? They were both policies that
13:59
could have been intellectually defended.
14:01
You know, you've got a huge gap between the young and the the
14:04
old, where the young are the ones who are struggling and the
14:07
old are the ones who are doing pretty well off.
14:09
Why were these not policies that could have been justified and
14:12
been successful and suddenly made him unpopular with
14:14
everybody? Yeah.
14:15
So I think, look, I mean, let's take winter fuel allowance for
14:18
instance. I think there's a perception,
14:19
particularly in wonk world that there are lots of young people
14:22
like hoping to stick it to the oldies.
14:25
And actually when you speak to young people, I'm worried about
14:27
my Gran, I'm worried about older people.
14:31
And I think the problem with the winter fuel was it struck at the
14:34
heart of that in every focus group it was older people have
14:37
put into the country, they've worked hard.
14:39
And people saying things at the time, like why are they going
14:41
after the elderly who can't fight back now as it actually
14:44
happens? You know, older people are very
14:45
good, I think making the case. But it was to go after such a
14:49
politically salient popular group to put the threshold so
14:52
low. I think if you'd started with a
14:54
higher threshold, you could have got it a lot of.
14:56
US had said that at the time, for heaven's sakes, lift the
14:59
threshold and then it would have been different.
15:01
You'd have said, well why am I getting a winter fuel allowance?
15:03
Exactly. And farmers, but farmers was the
15:05
same like really politically popular group.
15:08
People like farmers, they're seen as, you know, custodians of
15:11
the countryside and our food supply, particularly since the
15:14
pandemic. And I think if you go back to
15:17
the original reason why this has happened, it's because of that
15:20
manifesto pledge on tax. So they boxed themselves in,
15:23
unable to do income tax, National Insurance or VAT, which
15:26
meant they had to target specific groups, all of whom
15:29
elicit a certain amount of public sympathy.
15:32
Could a new leader, could a new leader, break with that and say
15:35
that was a manifesto for different times?
15:37
I'm going to come in with a different economic policy.
15:40
I think it's hard to do it without an election.
15:43
I just pick up on this because I think the the, the other problem
15:46
with it, a lot of the mistakes they've made is they've sort of
15:51
thrown themselves or inserted themselves into what they think
15:55
is an existing media controversy because that's kind of what you
15:59
do in opposition to get noticed without a sense of who they are,
16:04
what they're defending, what the governments about.
16:06
So things like winter fuel allowance seen as tough and but
16:10
you didn't have a story about yourselves there.
16:12
I think the ID cards are a perfect example here.
16:15
You've got a piece of perfectly good sort of technocratic
16:18
mutton, if you like, which they dressed up in this really scary
16:22
ways. It's going to be a way of
16:23
hammering illegal working by illegal immigrants.
16:26
And and it isn't really. And you managed to alienate
16:29
almost everybody right across the political spectrum because
16:32
you were sort of playing to these little Daily Mail Day,
16:35
Telegraph, Times, Sun Express tropes, you know, disability
16:38
reforms. Disability reforms were the
16:40
same. It was playing into the game
16:42
that, you know, we're all going to be tough on strangers.
16:46
We've actually. Having isn't this about the lack
16:48
of their own story to tell? And this is the problem that we
16:50
highlighted. It's.
16:51
For the election that they they only focused on winning the
16:53
election. They didn't focus on what they
16:55
were going to do afterwards and how they were.
16:57
Going to I think it's not just the absence of a story to tell.
16:59
It's actually I come back to this point, try make about our
17:01
political culture. It's enough to be getting column
17:05
inches and being, you know, playing into sort of an existing
17:09
controversy. That's the temptation of
17:11
politics rather than actually building an argument and an
17:13
identity about who you are. But isn't there also something
17:16
particular to Kia Starmer which he has deliberately eschewed,
17:19
this Starmerism kind of vision? And actually it means when you
17:22
speak to the public, they've got no idea what he stands for.
17:24
And he becomes defined by these U turns.
17:27
Whereas at least if he'd come forward and said this is my
17:30
vision for Britain, this is what I want to achieve, he'd have
17:32
something to sort of stand behind and really.
17:34
I don't think, I don't think it's vision because as you know,
17:37
vision is a weird word of politics.
17:39
And you know, we are a lot of people don't have visions.
17:41
Why should politicians? But but, but, but, but, but he,
17:44
I think he does have values. I think he could have done much,
17:47
much more and, you know, should do much, much more to project
17:52
those values in his decision. Sometimes we just get these CA
17:55
bullet points and I and I, I, I, we don't have that connected.
17:58
But this keeps kind of. You keep talking about how
18:00
important the values are. The most important thing was a
18:03
plan for how you were going to transform Britain and they
18:06
didn't have one. A lot of the things they do are
18:09
very transformative. The tragedy of this is that
18:12
people may just forget because they've hardly noticed.
18:15
The best things that Labour have done, which is rent controls, it
18:18
is workers rights. You know, the the unions have
18:21
not come forward and praised Labour enough for the most
18:24
radical working rights. We're about to have the biggest
18:28
fall in child poverty that's ever happened within one
18:31
government, within one parliament.
18:34
You know, a great deal of good has been done, but some.
18:37
Because of the two child benefits.
18:38
You never, yes, you're never quite sure whether Keir Starmer
18:42
wants to talk up the good he's done for fear exactly of the
18:45
right wing press. OK, well, I mean, you know,
18:47
right now if Starmer goes, there are two big figures who are in
18:52
play, Angela Rayner and we're streeting.
18:55
I mean, Tommy, you say, you know, the trouble with Angela
18:58
Rayner is that this is a, you know, we're in the middle of a,
19:02
a resignation crisis caused by probity in politics.
19:05
I mean, is it conceivable that somebody who had to step down
19:09
because she couldn't follow the rules on tax comes back not just
19:14
to government but to be Prime Minister?
19:16
Well, I get the sense from Angela Reagan's people that she
19:19
doesn't particularly want to even talk about Labour
19:22
leadership until she's got that tax issue sorted out.
19:25
So there is a reason for delay here.
19:27
At the very least, I get a sense from West treatment people that,
19:30
you know, right now, sort of, you know, they don't
19:33
particularly want to have Rez's links with Peter Manderson
19:37
examined too closely. Well, he he's.
19:38
Now said that he's going to publish everything.
19:41
Hasn't he? But it does it does it does it
19:42
does it does mean there's a reason for delay here.
19:47
And I think people are sort of jumping over themselves in their
19:50
excitement to see how soon they can get a leadership contest
19:52
underway. I'm not sure it's actually in
19:56
the interest even of the people who want to replace him to have
19:58
an imminent 1. If there is a leadership
20:00
contest, is it conceivable in the background and context of a
20:06
scandal caused by politicians being forgiven and brought back
20:09
the way Manderson was, that Angela Rayner can be forgiven
20:13
for having broken the rules on tax and brought back as Prime
20:16
Minister? I I like Angela Rayner a great
20:19
deal. I happened to think that her
20:22
resignation was a very harsh one.
20:23
I think she was held to a much higher standard in terms of
20:27
ethics. Peter Mandleson was when he was
20:29
appointed as U.S. ambassador, so I think that she has a good
20:33
reason to be resentful about being forced out of the cabinet
20:37
in the first place. I'm not paying.
20:39
Well, I, I, I, I, I think even the Ethics Commissioner thought
20:42
that she was a bit unlucky, but she, she was held to a very,
20:46
very high standard by, by, by the Prime Minister and by the
20:49
ethics, by, by the government's ethics advisor.
20:53
But when you ask me, do I think it's conceivable she can be
20:55
promised in these circumstances? I think it does make it messier.
20:58
And as someone who doesn't actually think Keir Starmer
21:00
should be replaced, I think it does make it harder to find that
21:03
replacement, yes. Holly, I think it's plausible.
21:07
I think it's possible she's well liked it depends of course, what
21:11
HMRC says. We haven't had the verdict yet
21:14
and it may be that you know, it was a, a, a technical error of
21:18
not great importance, in which case perfectly possible.
21:21
But what we what we have to? Like the whole problem that
21:23
we're in, we're in a political culture in which people say, oh,
21:27
people get excused if they're in power.
21:30
It wasn't that big a deal. If I hadn't paid 10s of
21:32
thousands of pounds in tax, you know, I'd be in court, is what
21:36
most people are thinking. And it might be bankrupt, but if
21:40
it's Angela Rayner, not only can she come back, she can come back
21:43
in the top job. We haven't had the verdict yet.
21:45
Let's wait and see what's said we.
21:46
Don't we know she didn't pay the right tax?
21:48
Well, we don't know what HMRC, it's got to say about it.
21:50
That's what we're waiting. But anyway, I suspect that there
21:53
will be more candidates coming forward if we have a little
21:57
while, if he doesn't stand down immediately, I think we might
22:00
find quite a lot of people coming forward who maybe haven't
22:03
been mentioned. And until we see a hustings of
22:07
those people, their strengths and their weaknesses, I think it
22:10
would be foolish for anyone to immediately call out who they
22:13
think should be the next Prime Minister.
22:15
Well, what about Wes Streeting? I mean, Tom says, you know,
22:18
there are concerns about his links with Mandelson.
22:21
Now he his people are saying there's very little contact.
22:25
We're happy to publish it all. We'll see.
22:28
Yes, he said today, anyone who wants to see all of my
22:30
correspondence you can look at, which means that he's pretty
22:33
sure that there's going to be nothing embarrassing there,
22:36
which is, you know, a good thing to be that open.
22:41
And I think he he has strong supporters.
22:43
He's very clever, he's very politically agile.
22:46
He's been a very good health secretary, but.
22:50
But a lot of people don't like him in the Labour Party.
22:51
People say, you know, he's much too Blair, right and on the
22:54
right of the party. The question is whether he can
22:56
escape that. I don't think he is sort of
22:59
bogged down in Blairism, but we shall see.
23:02
Luke, I mean, how much of the public know Angela Rayner?
23:05
And we're streeting, for a start.
23:08
Reasonably little. I mean, they know more about
23:10
Angela Rayner because she was Deputy Prime Minister and before
23:14
the scandal you would get a lot of people in focus groups who
23:17
said I really like her. She seems different.
23:19
She seems authentic. I think the challenges speaking
23:23
to people since then is you get versions of, in fact, we got it
23:27
from someone just the other week who said I used to really like
23:30
her and then she got power and now she just looks like the rest
23:33
of them. And I think she's going to have
23:35
to do something to overcome that because there is that challenge
23:38
of perception. Similar to what people have said
23:40
about Mandelson in focus groups. Why was this guy even given 1/3
23:43
third chance, regardless of the Epstein thing?
23:46
He'd been, you know, booted out of cabinet twice.
23:48
In this sense that politicians get endless go.
23:51
I think he's really difficult. I mean, we also haven't heard
23:55
from her. I mean, she hasn't done, you
23:57
know, big TV interviewing like that since she had to resign.
24:00
We don't really know what she thinks about most of politics at
24:04
the moment. No.
24:05
And I think if she were to come in, she would have to do
24:07
something that, you know, both distanced herself from what came
24:11
before. I think she probably would have
24:13
to have that focus on some kind of watershed, on cleaning up
24:16
politics, but also would have to, you know, there would need
24:19
to be some kind of mea culpa for what she did as well.
24:22
And I think that would be quite. And can you have a big change in
24:25
direction from whoever may take over given the election was
24:30
fought on the manifesto? You know, they, they will all
24:32
want to come in and say we need a massive reset.
24:34
I need to come in with a load of big new ideas.
24:36
Is there any mandate for big new ideas that weren't in the
24:40
election manifesto? Well, I.
24:41
Think part of the thing was there weren't that many big
24:42
ideas in the manifesto itself. And because it was a safety
24:45
first manifesto, it was hard then to take the public on some
24:48
of those difficult decisions. But the only thing I actually
24:51
think what matters more with the public is having a sort of sense
24:53
of coherent determination that you are going to do what it
24:57
takes to improve their lives. You're going to be focused on
25:00
them. You're going to move beyond at
25:01
the psychodrama and I actually think, you know, you should be,
25:05
you know, the the public will want to know that someone can
25:07
deliver. I mean, you know, people are
25:08
talking about outcomes and I mean people, most people have
25:12
never heard of suddenly being projected into #10 Downing
25:16
Street. Is that remotely tenable in the
25:19
in the middle of a government's term to sort of put somebody in
25:23
who isn't even a senior minister?
25:25
No, I, I don't, I don't think it is.
25:27
You know, people expect people to have a track record.
25:29
They expect to know that they can do stuff.
25:32
And I actually think it would be a risk for Al Khans or whoever
25:35
and not having done a big ministerial job to suddenly go
25:37
in. You're untested, you know.
25:38
Probably. I mean, you're the one sort of
25:40
raising this idea of sort of there will be other people who.
25:43
Well, I think that one of the things that people will blame
25:47
Keir Starmer for for a long time is the fix by which he kept Andy
25:51
Burnham out of this. It may be that if this takes a
25:54
little bit longer, there will be time perhaps for Andy Burnham to
25:58
have another chance at another by election.
26:00
But it was a pretty savage thing to do.
26:02
It was kind of dirty Westminster politics.
26:05
And so for Keir Starmer to be totally Mr. Clean after that
26:10
doesn't look so good. I.
26:12
Mean I'll take issue with that. I mean, I like Andy Burnham, but
26:16
the world is dog knew Andy Burnham was coming back to
26:19
Parliament in order to challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership.
26:22
I don't think any leader of any major political party in the
26:26
world would say, come on in, we'll give you special
26:28
permission. No, that'd be great.
26:29
That's just that's just it's nuts.
26:31
I couldn't I really understand why it was seen as so
26:34
controversial at the time. My worry, and I think Keir's
26:37
worry about this is that the the party that deserves to win the
26:41
next general election is the party which is not staring at
26:45
its navel, which is not invaded, engaged in factional battles
26:48
between Angela Raine is left and where's Treaty is right or you
26:51
know, or this or that. It's the party that's focused on
26:54
the needs of the British people at this incredibly fragile,
26:58
dangerous time for the world. And I really, I'm concerned now
27:04
that, yeah, it was rubbing hands weekly.
27:05
Great. We're gonna get a leadership
27:06
election. Yeah, we just talk about Labour
27:08
Party, this faction or that faction and the public will turn
27:12
away. Haven't already?
27:13
And. Isn't that the problem?
27:15
But Keir Starmer has taken Labour to 16 to 20% in the
27:18
polls. The public have already turned
27:20
away from his his his brand. Look, the third away for a
27:23
Parliament with a big majority thing to be doing now is
27:26
focusing on governing to actually bring about some of the
27:30
changes that you can in very difficult circumstances.
27:34
That level of unpopularity. Any sort of change, getting any
27:37
sort of focus on the British people rather than politicians
27:41
will become progressively harder if we engage in a factional
27:44
battle over the succession. And that's the prospect.
27:47
Now look. I think the problem is that that
27:49
for a lot of the public, certainly, you know, I was in
27:52
Greater Manchester last week doing focus groups.
27:55
And they were. Furious about Andy Burnham being
27:58
blocked someone who had delivered for them and it looked
28:00
like the politics of self-interest that someone who
28:03
had done so much for Greater Manchester.
28:06
Well, but I mean Tommy, you slightly said it is he was going
28:08
to come and do and lots of the public would if.
28:10
Starmer doesn't want to talk about at least she wants to talk
28:12
about governing for the country. What if Keir?
28:14
Starmer had said Run Andy and I recognise you're a strong player
28:17
who's delivered for Greater Manchester.
28:19
Let me he bring you into the tent, give him a cabinet job
28:22
that would have been seen by the public as strength that would
28:25
have helped. I mean, it's not for, you know,
28:28
me to start dictating reshuffles, but you know,
28:30
reshuffles happen fairly regularly.
28:31
There would have been he could have brought him in.
28:33
He could have looked stronger. And the problem when we did
28:36
those focus groups in Greater Manchester, you've got you could
28:38
see people making the contrast. This guy, Peter Mandelson, he
28:41
gets all these chances. Andy Burnham, who's improved our
28:43
transport, who's got construction going up across
28:45
Manchester, he's blocked. That don't make sense.
28:50
The idea that it's good for the Labour government to introduce
28:54
someone into Parliament who sole purpose of giving up what he
28:58
said was the best job in the world.
28:59
He wasn't interested to go to Parliament.
29:00
He wanted to go back to Parliament and challenge Keir
29:02
Stan for Labellation. I don't don't resent him for
29:04
that. You know, that's the job he
29:05
wants to do. But I don't think it's Keir
29:06
Starmer's job to say come on in, let's have six months
29:09
leadership. Speculation that that would be
29:11
nuts for any Prime Minister anytime.
29:15
It's happening now partly because of that decision he
29:17
made. An awful lot of people at that
29:19
point switched against. People are looking for these
29:21
triggers and I think you to some extent, you know, looking for a
29:24
bit of a trigger because you think, you know, you think he's
29:26
not going anywhere. But the people are looking for
29:29
an immediate reason to say that's it.
29:30
I've had enough that, you know, you know, straw in a camel's
29:32
back. I do think the individual
29:35
examples of these triggers bear don't really bear too much
29:39
examination. So are you, are you saying that
29:41
if he stays he he doesn't need to do a big research, he should
29:45
just carry on as he was because he was on the right line?
29:48
I think the whole philosophy of resets is, is sort of part of
29:53
the problem of these sort of the sort of cycle of drama and chaos
29:58
and crisis that the best thing that Keir Starmer could have
30:02
been could be is the person who's actually more concerned
30:06
what happens out in the country than the Westminster.
30:08
His distaste for politics should have defined him.
30:12
In fact, it at a moment he's being defined by the sort of
30:15
politics he's subcontracted out to other people.
30:16
That's on him. That's a mistake he's made.
30:18
But are you saying the government was basically on the
30:20
right lines in order to win the next election?
30:23
I'm saying you. Know there's somehow it would
30:25
come good in three years time. No, no, what I'm, what I'm
30:27
saying is that the right way to win the next election is to stop
30:31
focusing on your internal anonymous briefing which
30:34
characterises government too much.
30:35
I'm talking about this. I'm talking about what they're
30:37
doing. Well, not all of that.
30:38
You, you, you keep talking about that policy says policy says
30:42
there's lots of good policy. I think they haven't connected
30:44
into story. I think the long term investment
30:46
for the future is a very Labour story, stuff they're doing
30:48
opportunities, a very Labour story.
30:49
I think they have to open out to that Labour electorate rather
30:53
than sort of constantly looking over the wall to, to reform
30:56
voters they can't reach. I think they've made lots of
30:59
strategic errors. I think they've made some
31:01
governmental errors. Do I think that the difference
31:05
between the Labor government and the alternative is stark and
31:08
obvious? Yes.
31:10
Does the government succeed if it's facing the British?
31:13
People Talk about what matters to the most, yes.
31:16
Does the government fail if it turns in on itself, talks about
31:20
the Labour Party, does factional stuff and you know, it's just
31:23
turning away from a bunch of. People, Tom, let's ask Luke, has
31:26
any leader ever come back from such a negative rating as Kia
31:31
has now? I mean, a lot of people who like
31:34
Kia just say there's no way out. Well, no, but what I would what
31:38
I would also say is we know we're in quite a volatile period
31:41
at the electorate change of mind.
31:42
I find it difficult to see how he recovers.
31:46
And I think my worry from the public's perspective is to go
31:49
back to what Tom said. That speech he gave last
31:50
Thursday was a really important speech, you know, and actually
31:53
one that the public care about pride in place, tackling
31:56
extremism. The problem is, is he no longer
32:00
going to be a Prime Minister who's listened to who can get
32:03
those important messages across. And if that moment if the door
32:07
or has shot there than it would I think from a confidence in the
32:11
system tie a piece be time for him to move on.
32:16
But I I don't think we know that equivocally, but the window is
32:18
closing. Look, I'm not pretending that
32:21
this government is not in huge difficult and as this Prime
32:23
Minister is not in huge difficulty, I just say lightly
32:26
that you're right that this is a volatile time.
32:29
In next week we could have some major International Crisis.
32:33
At which point do people want to the Labour Party to be leadless,
32:36
this Prime Minister to be gone? I think it's that you know this,
32:40
you know, I do not understand this sort of addiction.
32:45
We've got turmoil and crisis and chaos, which is self fulfilling.
32:50
What I'm trying to get at is, I mean, yes, fine, you're in the
32:52
middle of a leadership crisis and now it's all about
32:54
personality and all the rest of it.
32:56
But the crisis was here before in terms of Labour unpopularity.
32:59
You know, Luke, Luke's, Luke's evidence.
33:02
We have a Prime Minister. You can go.
33:04
Round and bring together a coalition are willing to defend
33:07
liberal democracy at a. And none of that.
33:08
Existential genuine crisis for liberal democracy.
33:11
And Despite that, they're on course to massively lose the
33:13
next election reform. So the question is Britt Starmer
33:16
or somebody else, do things need to change?
33:19
Now, Polly, I, you know, I presume any other leadership
33:23
candidates are going to come in and say we need massive change
33:25
because that wasn't working. I think they'll have to.
33:28
I don't think anybody's going to be able to say steady as she
33:31
goes. The question is how much they
33:33
can break away from the straitjacket of that manifesto.
33:37
You know, a lot of people will be saying you must have a
33:39
general election. Well, we didn't have a general
33:41
election for Prime Minister after Prime Minister after Prime
33:44
Minister under the Tories. So I don't think that's the
33:46
answer. But I do think people have to
33:48
come up with a a very strong idea of how to clean up politics
33:52
first, but also, you know, how to get growth going, which is
33:56
very difficult. All of Europe struggling to get
33:58
growth going. I mean, all, all the cabinet who
34:01
aren't declaring support for Starman now are also saying
34:03
there needs to be change. I just saw, you know, I think it
34:05
was Bridget Phillipson on the TV saying we need to keep clear but
34:09
we need to be better. We need, you know, think we need
34:11
change. So it is clear that the
34:15
government, as it was set aside all the scandals, just wasn't
34:19
working, was it? I, I, I think the government
34:22
were pitching things in the wrong way and I, I, I generally
34:25
think that what Polly says about, you know, building a
34:28
coalition against the really terrifying threat, the new
34:31
threat pros by Farrah's like which we've not seen before is
34:35
really important. I don't think they've ever done
34:37
that properly in terms of their language, in terms of the way
34:39
they present policies and in terms of their own discipline.
34:44
That is not the same as saying you need some sort of intangible
34:50
change in, in the, the actual substance of the policy they're
34:54
doing. I do think a lot of this is the
34:57
kind of the sort of voters they've been aiming at.
35:00
I think there's a lot to be said for this block theory of
35:03
politics now that the, you know, 2019 the right got the block out
35:07
and won the election. 2024 the left got the block out and won
35:09
the election. And we spent too long kind of
35:14
appearing over the wall at the right wing bloc and not enough
35:16
paying, not paying nearly enough attention to to left to centre
35:19
voters. And I think they need to be
35:20
reunited with a story which they can understand.
35:24
That's a question of reaching out to them rather than turning
35:28
inwards to ourselves. So if Keir Starmer goes, I think
35:32
it's really important that this does not become a factional
35:35
leadership election. And it's, you know, it's a
35:38
process which is done with an eye to the public rather than to
35:42
the party. I very much fear it will not be.
35:46
Yeah, I mean it, It is impossible for him not to be a
35:48
factional leadership election, isn't it, when you got a
35:52
candidate from the soft left and the candidate from the centre
35:54
right? But the the the the I think 1 of
35:56
Keir Starmer's achievements when he first became leader was to
35:58
turn the party inside out, away from itself towards the public.
36:03
I think the danger of him departing now would be the party
36:06
turns back in on itself. You said something very
36:09
important about the importance of the bloc, a right block and a
36:12
left block. Within that left block it is
36:15
essential that everybody within that is willing to vote
36:18
tactically to make sure that they keep the right out.
36:21
There is a danger that with Keir Starmer as hated, I don't think
36:25
it's fair, but as hated as he is, that the Lib Dems and the
36:28
Greens might not throw their vote to Labour when they need to
36:32
in the seats where they need to, and that would be a disaster.
36:35
So there needs to be a leader who is at least more or less
36:39
acceptable for tactical voters from those two.
36:42
Are you saying a Labour leader should reach out to those other
36:44
parties and maybe bring them into the tent before the next
36:47
election? I don't know about bringing them
36:48
into the tent, but at least have somebody acceptable enough that
36:52
they are willing to vote tactically as they did at the
36:54
last election. And at the moment, it looks as
36:57
if a lot of them are saying, sorry, couldn't vote for Keir
36:59
Starmer, there's Gaza, There are a whole lot of things for some
37:02
reason, and we have to get over that to a point where they are
37:05
at least acceptable to each other.
37:07
Are we already at that point where you're looking at a
37:09
coalition of the centre and the left trying to take on reform?
37:15
Yeah, look, I think one of the best chances that Labour will
37:18
have at the next lecture, which is a long time whistle lots may
37:22
change in between. But even looking forward to
37:24
May's elections is a sort of Macron strategy which is you
37:28
have to vote for us to stop reforms and that's Macron trying
37:32
to stop National Rally. The difficulty comes and This is
37:36
why I think Gorton is more dangerous.
37:39
The by election in Gorton and Denton is more dangerous than
37:41
people think for Labour's longer term prospects.
37:44
If Labour no longer look like the vehicle that can stop
37:48
reforms, if the Greens win that by election, it becomes much
37:51
harder to say to the left bloc you must vote for us in order to
37:56
keep out Reform UK and I think that could be a real challenge
38:01
for them. That said, I do think you can
38:03
slightly overplay the Bloc stuff that actually, if you look at
38:07
most voters, they broadly do want life to be more affordable,
38:11
public services to work, a greater degree of control over
38:15
immigration. And I come back to again, when
38:18
we're in Manchester, there was one woman and she's sort of
38:20
summed up what I think the central paradigm of electoral
38:22
politics is at the moment. She says, Luke, I'm really
38:26
scared at the next election, I'm going to have to vote reform.
38:31
And I just thought it was such a sort of telling sort of.
38:33
And she went on to explain, you know, I've seen what's happened
38:35
in the US with ICE. I worry he'd be like Trump.
38:38
But I'm just so worried we need to.
38:39
I also think we need something different that I'm worried I'm
38:42
going to put. My cross there.
38:44
Can you explain why? You know, if we're in a world in
38:47
which untrustworthy elites doing dodgy things, mysterious sources
38:53
of funding for politics is what's driving this
38:58
dissatisfaction amongst the public, Why?
39:01
Why a reform not caught by that? Why do people not say that's
39:06
what they do? Well, A, because people think
39:08
they're all at it and they're all tainted by the same brush.
39:12
And secondly, it's, you know, any doubts people have at the
39:15
moment, well, for 30% of the electorate is being overpowered
39:18
by a sense we just can't go on like this.
39:21
So there are lots of people, particularly in the voters
39:22
reform of one since the election or one ever since then, who are
39:26
like that woman who think I just got to roll the dice on
39:28
something new because we can't go on like this.
39:30
And that's what Labour has to do.
39:31
Labour has to does have to reassure people like that that
39:34
government can deliver. One of the many incoherences
39:38
we've had into the political strategy from Labour Party
39:40
recently is they don't even know how to attack reform.
39:43
So, you know, Keir Starmer made a big speech last year's party
39:46
conference saying that they're a threat like we've never seen
39:48
before. It's a different battle.
39:51
Within a couple of days the Labour Party were putting out
39:54
tweets from Labour Party's headquarters saying same old
39:57
Tories now. You literally cannot be a new
40:00
threat like we've never faced before and the same old Tories
40:03
now. That incoherence I think is part
40:05
of the kids problem in that, you know, that was a speech which
40:07
was very personal to him and yet.
40:11
There are people who sort of seem to think when the Prime
40:13
Minister sends a big signal that that it can be ignored or it's
40:16
merely the starting point for a bigger discussion.
40:18
That is that's, you know, it's been quite hard for him actually
40:20
to drive through his own values and his own personality into
40:24
this government. Some of that's on him.
40:26
Some of it's actually on the people around him.
40:28
Also, Polly isn't isn't it that, you know, he has a habit of
40:30
saying things and then it just disappears.
40:33
That's the nothing happens. That exactly the trouble and and
40:37
that's a very good example, this contradictory attitude towards
40:40
reform and often when he says things and for instance on ID
40:44
cards, that was a very popular policy until he put it forward
40:49
and the moment he put it forward, it became an unpopular.
40:51
Policy, the way you put it forward.
40:52
Which is quite which, sorry. It's the way he put it forward.
40:55
But it's the way he put it forward.
40:58
But it should have driven everything.
40:59
It should have been talking about about benefits, about
41:02
immigration. It should also have been talking
41:04
about entitlement. This will these are the things
41:06
it will give you. And if, for instance, we wanted
41:09
to make foreigners pay for our museums and galleries, this card
41:13
will show your British and you can go in everywhere free.
41:16
I mean, there are all kinds of positive ways it could be done
41:19
and he just never seems to have that consistent follow through
41:23
or to be able to say to his cabinet, I want each of you to
41:26
find a good reason why ID cards are a good thing for.
41:29
Instance OK, so so I just want to end with sort of the lessons
41:34
for whichever government is going to be running the country
41:38
next week. And I I accept that you wanted
41:41
to be Keir Starmer. But you know what?
41:42
What does this period, I accept, Tom, that you wanted to be Keir
41:46
Starmer? What does this period tell you?
41:49
Two or three things that we must learn in terms of making
41:53
government work and connecting with the people.
41:58
I think staring at your own navel is not a great day way of
42:05
of of reaching the public at Westminster.
42:10
Politics which is in shrill to an idea of perma crisis, perma
42:16
chaos is a politics beginning to eat itself and making this
42:21
country increasingly difficult to govern.
42:24
And I just sort of think from the international perspective
42:29
here, yeah, you've got a government, a Labour government
42:32
elected with a big stable majority acting like the
42:36
Conservatives did when they were falling apart.
42:39
And it's happened after within 18 months.
42:42
And this is a world which really is in crisis.
42:45
The challenges facing us on climate, technology, Russia,
42:48
China, Trump are so enormous that here we have a Prime
42:55
Minister who's not even mentioned in the Epstein files.
42:59
There's lots of rich, powerful Americans who I haven't been
43:02
brought down, we have promised, not even mentioned there.
43:04
Nigel Farage mentioned 40 times who somehow is going to be cast
43:07
out because of his secondary relationship with Across.
43:13
That happened last night. We go, I think it's nuts, I
43:15
think our politics looks nuts. And the big lesson here is if we
43:20
want to have democracy to kick around, we have to start
43:25
thinking and treating it a little bit more tenderness
43:28
because it's fragile right now. Luke, what do you think they
43:32
need to understand if they're going to get out of this mess?
43:36
I think the biggest thing is to show that government is in
43:39
control of events, that, you know, there's a reason to take
43:42
back control was such a successful election slogan
43:45
because it goes to the heart of what people want.
43:47
And I think too much of the early part of this government
43:50
has made it seem powerless to events or without a narrative of
43:55
control and what they want to achieve.
43:57
I mean, I go back to that. I think it was such a silly
44:00
comment that the Prime Minister made before the Liaison
44:02
Committee when he talked about pulling levers and nothing
44:04
happening because all that does that sort of things it
44:06
reinforces to the public, oh, maybe we do need someone totally
44:09
different who can make the system work.
44:11
So I think it's a about showing control.
44:13
And then BI think it's one of the clips that I played before
44:18
the election to a focus group of Keir Starmer people like the
44:21
most was him talking about the politics that treads more likely
44:24
on people's lives. You know that that people that
44:27
that is exactly what we want and they have to find a way to get
44:30
back to that. So showing government is in
44:32
control and could do stuff and then getting back to politics is
44:35
something that people don't have to stay glued to the TV folder.
44:38
They should obviously all be listening to the forecast.
44:41
Polly, what? What does whoever is running the
44:44
government in the future need to understand about what's gone
44:47
wrong? It's a huge opportunity for
44:50
somebody with a political imagination, with somebody with
44:52
bravery, with somebody who's not going to spend their whole time
44:56
listening to focus groups and just decides what they want to
44:59
do. They've got three years with an
45:01
unchallengeable authority of a huge majority.
45:05
They can just say in those three years I'm going to get done the
45:08
things I most think the country needs and wants.
45:12
I'm, you know, I'm not going to be blown one way and the other
45:16
by endless criticism. And if you had somebody with
45:19
that sort of nerve and that sort of hope, I think Labour could
45:24
get back on its feet and do very well.
45:26
But it's a big ask. Probably Tom and be Luke Trill.
45:29
Tom Baldwin, thank you all very much indeed.
45:31
And that's the forecast for today.
45:33
Who knows where we'll be tomorrow.
45:34
We'll see you then. Bye bye.