Latest / This Week in DFW Real Estate / Is Today’s Market Harder Than 2008? The Truth About the DFW "Slow Grind"

Transcript

Is Today’s Market Harder Than 2008? The Truth About the DFW "Slow Grind" · This Week in DFW Real Estate

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We haven't been a war since World War Two, but
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: they're caught at the war with Iran. I don't know.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: I think you got to declare. We talked about this
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: with Vietnam on an episode once. Now we're still technically
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: undefeated in the wars because we just don't declare thet
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Maybe Ai is trying to downplay itself.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: It's like I'm not really that big of a threat.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I get it wrong the time. This is the play.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Don't worry about me.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: Make sure to hit that subscribe button on YouTube and
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: leave it. Leave Brian hateful comments.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: He loves them.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Turn it up.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: This Real Estate.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: A weekly podcast tooper.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Agents who actually get paid parking, moved, listing, heat, cold,
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: the streets, damn any age.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: Let's all right, Episode nine, Let's get this thing rolling rolling. Yeah,
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: look at least it's not two thousand and eight, Brian.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Man, I would how old was I in two thousand
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: and eight? Twenty one? I turned twenty one in two
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: thousand Were you in real estate then?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Not yet?
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: I was not till twenty eleven, so close, But man,
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: being twenty one was fun, so I didn't mind that
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: part of two thousand and eight.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: You didn't care about the financial collapse.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: No, you know, I mean back then I was working
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: as a bartender. You took home cash every night. My
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: body operated a lot better than it does these days
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: at thirty eight, so.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: You know, hindsight don't mind it. Yeah, two thousand and eight,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: I was twenty four.
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: Twenty five, and you had just gotten into the I
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: was the biz. Yeah, well I've been in the biz.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: I was in the business for two or three years prior.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Ye.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: Two thousand and six is when I got licensed, And yeah,
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: two thousand and seven went full time. Two thousand and
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: eight thought I was making money and then it collapsed.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: Did you do anything special for the last pizza you delivered?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Now? Did you know it's going to be last pizza
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: at the time? I don't think that.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: It's not like it's not like your data is a
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: pilot and when they start spraying the water and the
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: plane goes through it, there's no there's no ceremony.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: I've meant you personally, like did you eat a slice
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: or something like, this is the last pizza I'm ever
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: gonna know.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: You don't when you're working there, you don't. You don't
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: want any of that. And yeah, you're a plastic of it. Yeah,
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: you're just happy to be done. You're tired of the
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: shitty tips.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: And right right, well, at least it's not two thousand
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: and eight, is the is the premise of today?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: We tend to do this a lot.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know why the Great Financial Crisis is the
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: barrier or the barometer against which we measure every single market,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: but there have been for the last couple of years,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: since the FED started really hiking interest rates in twenty
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: twenty two, these comparisons to you know, the Great Financial Crisis,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: when's the crash going to be? When's the crash going
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: to be? The crash has been coming every every year
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: for the last however many years, which is always some
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: crash around the corner.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: Which if you go to our YouTube channel and you
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: see one of the shorts and go watch that, that's
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: something you talked about, like, oh, the collapse, the collapse,
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: the collapse, the collapse, and then you know, you keep
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: kicking the can down the road. Sure, you know it's
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: the sky is always falling, at least in real estate, right, what's.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: The saying, so and so it's predicted the last fifty
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: out of the ten collapses somebody's like, I'm not I'm
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: butchering that, but like there's like a funny Wall Street quote.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: I'm always curious, though, why is it that we compare
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: everything to the Great Financial Crisis as if that's the
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: only type of difficult market, or if that's the only
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: type of volatile market, or if that's the only type
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: of I think that just becomes this standard of things
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: going wrong? Does that make sense? I mean, look, it
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: was bad back then, it was a black Swan event.
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: I mean the comparison is, is, is today's real estate
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: market harder than the two thousand and eight real estate
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: market that financial collapse?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Right? And comparing?
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: Right, we want to compare and contrast and to say, like, look,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: twenty six has has started out pretty hard. I mean,
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: you know, last week's show we talked about, you know,
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: the the brokerage executives mentioned that, you know, eighty percent
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: of agents have not.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Closed a deal, and NAR just adjusted their forecast. Did
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: you see what it was, Jesse? Three point nine to eight.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: I think it's three point nine eight. The number that's
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: the lowest sense. I mean you did a video on
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: it at lowest sense houses were invented. Yeah, it's it's
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: it's it's pretty low. That's that out of point. That's
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: the number of transactions forecasted number of resale transactions. In
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty six, NAR lowered their forecast to three point
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: nine to eight million, I believe in twenty twenty one
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: was it where we hit six point five almost, So
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: a pretty stark difference there. We You just mentioned something
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: a second ago that I want to double tap in
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: for a second. We used this idea of like, it's
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: a hard market for whom for real estate agents?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Brian, So is that? And I like to make that
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: distinction right.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: Because I think like language matters and how we talk
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: to our clients matter, certainly not a hard market for buyers.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: It's kind of awesome. You got.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, invant story is starting to pile up a little bit.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: You got a lot of negotiation power. Rates really aren't
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: that bad right now, you could probably get a buy down. Like,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: if I'm shopping for a home right now, I'm feeling
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: pretty good.
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: Well, let's go back in time. Let's go to two
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: thousand and eight real quick. Yeah, right before we do that,
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: make sure to go and celebrate and love on our sponsors,
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: right the people that make this show what it's all about.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: It's Homeward at DFW. So get a cool shirt like this.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: I guess let me see which way right there. Homeward
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: at DFW is the best property management company in Dallas
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: for worth. Maybe in Houston coming soon, maybe Homeward at
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: DFW dot com. Talk with Duncan and Dana. They'll make
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: sure to take care great care of your clients. You
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: need to get at least out professionally manager. They'll do
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: an amazing, amazing, amazing job on that. Homeward DFW dot com.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: And then remodel. You've got clients that are buying a house.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: We're going to talk about buying houses. It's a great
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: time to do so. And they want to come in
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: and change it all up. They want new floors, they
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: want carpet, and you know, they want paint. They want
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: to whole new bathroom and kitchen whatever. Pro Care Home
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: Solutions can take care of that. Chris and his team
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: do an amazing job on the remodels and the work
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: that needs to get done. So that's pro Care DFW
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: dot com. And then if you want a cool yellow
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: background like this. By the way, the lights don't look
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: yellow on the ground.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Nick came in complaining though we had the wrong
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: lights until these were just basic lights and now they
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: look yellow on here. So Jesse at Tour Studios t
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: O r E Studios dot com can make you look
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: like you're on fire. So great job, Jesse, and go
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: to Jesse's YouTube channel. See what he's doing. What's it
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: called again, he doesn't even know.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: I think it's just my name, Jesse show Walt yep.
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: Took him a second.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I think because I have it as Jesse
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: Showalter and Tour Studios because I was doing all my
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: tour studio stuff on there too, So it's still a
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: little bit about both, you know, a little tour studios, yeah,
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: a little real estate.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: Go check it out to see what other stuff gets
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: done in this studio that could be you.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: So let's go back in time two thousand and eight
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: what it actually was, and so we had a full
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: systematic financial failure at that time, right, unemployment peaked at
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: ten percent, so definitely we don't have we have unemployment issues,
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: but we don't have that same unemployment problem today. So
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: during that time, the US lost eight point five million
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: jobs total and at the worst that we were losing
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: seven hundred and fifty thousand jobs lost per month, and
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: the American households lost fourteen trillion dollars in net worth
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: during that financial collapse, right, mortgage rates and two thousand
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: and eight started kind of we were kind of in
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: a similar spot. They were around, you know a little
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: above six percent of six point one two percent, and
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: then the during that time, the Fed slash their their
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: rate to near zero by December of two thousand and eight,
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: so they were trying to do anything they could to
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: to you know, revive the economy restart.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: Jesse, can you do me a favor in the background,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: pull this up? Can you pull up the transaction sides
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: through the years. I want to see how many transaction
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: sides we did between like two thousand and eight to
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: twenty eleven.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: You can just do like a thirty year chart or whatever.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we come back thirty years, but
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: this I think is going to be important for this conversation.
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: So during that time, you know, recovery or the recovery
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: years coming out of that financial collapse of wait, we
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: saw interest rates under four percent, so you know that's
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: that kind of that tailwind helped kind of fixed. You know,
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: they kind of started fixing that market. And you know,
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: right now, if we kind of jump to today, you know,
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: we don't have that same relief valve, we don't have
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: that same you know, we don't have that opportunity to
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: to have the Fed come in and drop rates to
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: near zero because we're now still fighting inflation.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that's a good point. Why why why can't
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: the Fed? I shouldn't say can't Why won't the Fed
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: cut rates right now? I mean, and and look, how
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: bad is inflation? It's tough to say, is it? You know,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: it really is tough to say, because we have revisions
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: all the time. Just like the jobs reports, we get
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: revisions all the time.
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: Do you think the jobs report and inflation report back
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: then were more accurate than they are today?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Uh, there's no.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: There's a really interesting book called The Signal and the
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: Noise by Nate Silver if you've ever read it. By
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: the way, listening to reports on jobs and CPI and
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: things like that, they're they're they're not nearly as accurate
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: as we perceive it, And be I do won't go
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: down that rabbit hole.
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: But so shouldn't they always just tell us everything's great,
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: and then we just fall in the trap that everything's
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: good and we don't worry about it, and so we
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: just keep going and keep going and keep going.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: I made a part a point a few episodes ago,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: and somebody was mean to me on YouTube shorts, and
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: that's why I don't look at the comments that I
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: said that comics are more beholden the sentiment than actual
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: underlying fundamentals. And then somebody maybe feel silly about myself,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: but I still hold that that's true. Yes, the better
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: we feel, the better the economy actually performs. So I
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: just wanted to look at transaction sidesh eight. If we're
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: just starting with that year, what do we end four
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: point one million a little or four point one million
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: four point one seven?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, So we're trending even lower than that.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Now, we finished last year twenty twenty five at four
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: point three I believe, or somewhere around there.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So we're trending down a little bit. So when we
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: say harder, it means we're trading even less, yeah than no.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: Eight okay, So if we let's jump back to eight,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: over seven million foreclosures nationally happened. Home prices fell thirty
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: percent during that time, the hardest and some of the
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: hardest hit markets were down anywhere from fifty to fifty
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: six percent, right, So that's how much the values had dropped.
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: You know, in other states we were somewhat protected, right.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: Texas was was, you know, pretty insulated on that. You know,
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: DFW prices dropped around one point four percent. There were
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: some some some markets in Dallas Fort Worth where you
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: saw a five to ten percent decrease. But but I
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: mean we were we were pretty okay.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Why do you think that is?
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I think there's important questions to ask because I'm going
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: to compare this to today's market. Why do you think
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: somewhere like Texas incredibly business friendly states, strong local economies,
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: why were they more insulated from the Great Rice?
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: We didn't we at that time. Look, I can't remember
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: who our governor was at the time. Was it was
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: it rig Yeah, so I don't I think the push
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: to bring corporations here had just started.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: The push, like the maybe incentives and things like that.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: We've always been just regulatorily of business friendly stage, yes.
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: But you know, at the same time, we just didn't
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: have that that that big job growth that was happening
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: with you know, people weren't just flocking here, you know
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: and bringing a whole bunch of companies in the way
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: that you know, when when Rick and all them had
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: you know, when Rick Perry had set that up, we
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: started to they almost started celebrating. All right, we just
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: brought this company in from you know, usually from California.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: But our prices were still pretty depressed. I mean, you know,
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: home values were were you know, I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: speak without looking at the actual you know stats, but
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: you know, from what I remember and recall, we were
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: we were still under priced compared to the national average.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: We were under the national average. And what's even more
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: important is the delta between asset prices and rental.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Rates was much wider than it is now.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Yes, so we had a lot of investor liquidity come
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: into the market in North Texas during the financial crisis,
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: and that's what kept asset prices from continuing to fall.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: When they hit a certain level, You're going to have
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: investors inject liquidity into the market by purchasing up all
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: these rental properties, and that's how people built their portfolios.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: That's not happening right now, yep. Asset prices have come down,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: but they haven't come down nearly enough to create a
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: gap between them and rental rates.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: So so if we look at opportunity right two thousand
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: and eight, you know, NAR went from one point four
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: million licensees to a little under a million. They lost
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: four hundred thousand agents over the six year, you know
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: time period, and that opportunity in two thousand and eight,
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: where we as agents were building our business, we had
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: we had we kind of had this path of building
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: our business through short sales, through rios and foreclosures, as
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: well as we had the government, you know, helping first
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: time home buyers. We had the first time home buyer
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: grant program, we had the the loan, the forgiveness program,
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: the tax credit what was it? It was the first
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: one was seventy five hundred You had to repay that
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: over a certain amount of time, and then they quickly
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: changed that a year later to I think it was
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: an eight thousand dollars tax credit that didn't have to
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: be repaid. And so we had we had some we
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: had some some paths to build our business. And if
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: we go and say, all right, you know that was bad,
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: I would also say in two thousand and eight, when
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: were young. You weren't in the business yet, you were
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: over there slinging drinks at the bar. And you know,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: I didn't, you know, I only had a house in
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: a car payment, I didn't have children to worry about
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: anything else else like that. I was already broke, right,
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: so I didn't really feel the pain that bad. And
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: and you know, but I did see a lot of
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: agents during that time. And this is something that really
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: really sticks out that even today that just has been
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: burned and ingrained in my mind, was that there was
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: a lot of agents that kind of lost their lead
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: generation way. They got comfortable with just the referral and
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: their sphere business. But they didn't even know, you know,
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: before that, you know, business just came to them. They didn't,
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: they weren't calling, they weren't you know, they weren't really
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: doing much and they were making a great living doing so.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: And then unfortunately you started seeing agents, you know, getting
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: their cars repossessed. You see them, you know, they were
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: going through financial their own financial collapse. And that that's
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: kind of what stuck, you know, kind of stood out
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: in my mind is like I never wanted in the
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: future as like if this ever happened again. I never
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: wanted to be that agent that had built a great
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: book of business, you know, great reputation of having a
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: strong business, and then all of a sudden, you know,
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: when everything hits the fan. You know, I'm just like
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: these other these other old timers now, and you know,
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know how to revive it. I don't know
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: how to bring new business in. And that that really
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: stood out during that OA crash.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: Well, and I feel like we're seeing a lot of
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: that that that nowadays too.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: I think whenever it becomes harder and harder, more difficult
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: to acquire clients, when when transaction sides are down a
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: little bit, we tend to just look at these things
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: as like they're they're they're comparable to the last big fight,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: you know, financial crisis or whatever it is. So it's
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: it's it's easy to compare today's market to two thousand
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: and eight.
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: This.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: We came up with this topic because it's it's a
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: lot of the cha A lot of topics we come
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: up with are just things that we chatter about in
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: our Facebook group, and we pull topics out of there
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: out of the conversations that happened in there, and so
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: this one came up organically from people comparing this to
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: the Financial crisis. There's a lot of key differences. There
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: are a lot of similarities in what an agent needs
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: to be doing to continue to generate business. Back during
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: the Financial crisis, really successful agents did a couple of things.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: They pivoted their lead generation sources. If you ever read
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: Pat Hyben's book Six Steps to Seven Figures or something,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: he talks about how you pivoted to generating solely for
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: rios and things like that.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: There was a lot of opportunity.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: It was a really difficult time because it was a
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: sort of a singular black Swan event.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: We had the.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: We had the mortgage backed security machine running forward for
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: a very very long time, and all of a sudden,
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: all the arms blew.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Up all at once.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: There's a million other variables. I love talking about the
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Great Financial Crisis. I've been told to not go down
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: these rabbit holes on this show. We'll stick up all
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: the time. But it was a black Swan event triggered
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: by kind of a singular serial, sort of a series
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: of events. This is entirely different in the sense that
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: if you were an agent in the going through the
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: financial crisis, you had a pathway to maybe pivot your
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: client type, right, so you said, like a lot of
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: people really did start specializing foreclosures, short sales, rios, things
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: like that.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Some agents, some teams really really crushed that.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Also, you had to really to succeed, You had to
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: really bring a certain type of value because a lot
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: of your clients were navigating a very difficult situation, and
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: so it wasn't as easy as just putting a home
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: on the market, watching it go get multiple offers and
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: selling for above list price and you collecting your commission.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: This is very similar to like the twenty twenty one
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: and twenty twenty two years around here, where things were
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: relatively easy to get deals done. Everybody wanted to buy
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: a house, everybody who was selling their house was getting
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: way more money than they thought they ever would for it,
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: and the agents had a relatively easy time getting deals done.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: And I would argue that the value that they brought
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: was I wouldn't say less important, but it was more
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: limited in the sense that when you have a very
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: willing buyer and a very willing seller, the value the
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: agent brings is maybe a little bit less important when
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: I'm having to navigate a difficult situation because I am
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: going through job loss or difficult economic times or things
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: like that. Agents who understand the process can help me
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: navigate a really difficult chapter in my life become incredibly valuable.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: And a lot of agents weren't able to do that.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: So when the market got more difficult, transaction size went down.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Agents either started to become specialists, pivot their lead generation sources,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: or just flat out, i hate to say it, flat
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: out lead generate harder, work harder to find the worm
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: buried in the dirt, or their businesses started to crumble
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: a little bit. And that's where you see we went
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: from one point four million members of NAR down to
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: just under a million. Is that a lot of people
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: just got kind of frozen and they didn't pivot, and
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: they didn't double down, and their businesses started to operate
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: a little bit. That's what I think is a bit
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: similar from the Great Financial Crisis to this market when
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: it comes to the real estate agent. The financial crisis
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: is nothing like this market at all.
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: And let's look at today's times, right, Unemployment four point
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: three percent, right, so eight ten percent right now? Round
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: four four point three is soft but not collapsing. You know,
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: we're now saying that, you know, the the thirty year
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: fixed rate very similar, roughly six six point threes, you know,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: six point three seven percent. You know, the mortgage the
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: Mortgage Association has now from the expectations and looking at
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: the FED, the Fed's no longer going to to cut rates, right,
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: so we're most likely not going to see any rate
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: cuts this year. Inflation projected hit four percent by years in.
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: That also throws in, you know before that, that also
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: throws in, we weren't expecting the conflict or are we?
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Is it a war? I don't know what. We haven't
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: been a war since World War Two, but they're cone
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: at the war with Iran. I don't know.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: I think you got to declare. We talked about this
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: with Vietnam on an episode once. Now we're still technically
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: undefeated in wars because you just don't declare them.
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but again, if you just keep feeding the news,
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: you're always a winner as long as you keep saying
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: that you're a winner. Right, and so just like this show,
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: the show is always this is the number one rated
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: local DFW real estate show in the marketplace, and inflation
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: so inflation projected hit four percent by years in. We're
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: also dealing with the ratelock trap right where you have sellers,
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: you have homeowners that are sitting at a two and
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: a half to three and a half percent interest rates
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: and either they can't afford to move, or they just
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: don't want to give up that cheap rate. They want
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: to move, They probably need to move, but they're like,
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: why would I trade in my two and a half
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: my three and a half rate for six percent rate?
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: One hundred percent? Okay?
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: So this is this is this is important context to
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: have because I want to pivot to what agents need
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: to be doing in this market right now to continue
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: to move forward grow their business. And we've talked about
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: this ad nauseum on different episodes. The differences between this
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: market and the Great Financial Crisis. I think it's worth
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: re visiting, just just for a moment. The Great Financial
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Crisis had a series of triggers. This particular market moment
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: doesn't have that same black Swan moment coming. We talked,
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: we talked about this on our other show years ago,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: that the outcome of having low rates for an extended
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: period of time and pumping all sorts of cheap money
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: into the environment, and that that raises asset prices, spikes inflation,
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: and things like that, and then reversing course immediately and
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: having the fastest rate hike in human history. That's most
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: likely not going to trigger some sort of Black Swan
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: collapse like catastrophic event. It will throw the marketplace into
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: a long, slow, freezing ground. For the reason that if
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: I lock a house in at a certain rate one,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: I'm more reluctant to give up that rate too. If
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: I was to purchase a home over the course of
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: maybe twenty eighteen to twenty twenty twenty two, maybe twenty
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: twenty one, asset prices continue to escalate, so on paper,
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I have a lot of equity, but I'm going to
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: have trouble unlocking that equity for the sole fact that
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: now if I were to sell that home and purchase another,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: I have to pay a much higher rate, even though
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: rates historically about medium. Right now I have to pay
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: a much higher rate than I locked my home in before,
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: So my motivation to move is incredibly low. And now
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: because wages have not kept up with asset prices and
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: rates have not come down enough to spark more.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Growth, which they shouldn't anyway. By the way, now.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: It's a waiting game. Asset prices have to slowly drift
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: back down to where they're more in line with what
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: human beings make for a living, and so people are
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: more comfortable trading asset that's at the current lending rates. Okay,
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: if I blocked in a two percent or two and
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: a half percent mortgage and my house went way up
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: in value, I'm not going to sell that home. What
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: needs to happen is for me to purchase a new home,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: I need asset prices to come down to a level
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: in which I'm comfortable paying a six and a half
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: percent rate for a house and giving up my two
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: and a half percent rate. And that has thrown the
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: market into a period of freezing, this long, slow grind,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: not a collapse. That is really important context because we're
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: talking about what agents can be doing to grow their business.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: But I really like to hammer that point home. So
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: let's look at the five.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: So you've got five unique forces that is holding that's
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: making twenty six harder versus you go back to eight.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: While you're in it, you're like, man, this stuff is hard, right,
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: So you're two thousand and eight I just remember people
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: were freaking out, like when the Lehman Brothers finance when
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: they went under in that collapse, it was it was,
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, everything just stopped.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: What you have here is is, you know, kind of
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: these these five variables going on, which is right now,
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: we don't have the distress inventory, right, there's very little
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: up right, you know, you know, hardly any foreclosures. You know,
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: you see some we see some short sales picking you know,
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: there's some short sales picking up. But when you're starting
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: from zero, you know, even ten feels like a lot, right,
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: You've got And Jesse was pulling this up in the
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: background for US agent surplus. So we went from an
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: eight and over those six years we went from one
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: point four million license you know, national association or realer
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: members to under a million. We're we are now still
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: near peak agents that are competing for below average transactions.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Almost one point five million, yes.
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: And so we're we actually have just as many as
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: we did in O eight, sure actually more than that.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: And then what something doesn't talk about because we didn't
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: have this problem in two thousand and eight, is that
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: technology disruption. Right, consumers are now the consumer technology piece
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: is they've got it. Everything's more in the hands, it's
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: more readily available. They trust it more, even though maybe
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: they shouldn't. I saw, and I meant to screenshot and
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: send it to you, But there was there was a
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: gentleman that was posting, and he's kind of in the
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: tech field that says, like, people that think they're going
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: to be replaced by AI right now, AI forty percent
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: of the.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Time and jobs, they're getting it wrong. Yeah right.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: It's actually so if you if companies are replacing human
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: employees with AI, there's going to be this kind of
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: rehiring phase to come in and correct all the problems
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: that AI has messed up.
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I hate to try to make anybody who's
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: making hard predictions around what AI is going to do
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: just don't listen to them, by the way, because anybody
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: who's got that much assuredness about a very very opaque
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: future is probably not to be trusted. Of course, AI
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: is making mistakes right now, like his I want to
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: know how many mistakes humans make?
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: Is it less or more? Is the same thing When
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: Dana we were just texting with a business time with Dana.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: We're at Homeward Property Management. She was like, because we're
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: you know, we're talking about you know, putting AI, you know,
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: an AI infrastructure and homeward and she's like, I don't know.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: I'm dealing with an AI system right now with the
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: city of Fort Worth and it's it's awful. And then
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: your response was, well, if you're dealing with a human
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: over there, it would probably be a lot worse.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: Half the time it is' those it's really really difficulty
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: or trying to get anything done with the city.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: It's definitely not smooth. Yeah, I'd be interested.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Is that AI is getting it wrong forty percent of
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: the time, like on the first Revolution or just like
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: but if you find aggregate of all prompts and outputs
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: are forty percent incorrect, out trouble. I've built some stuff
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: in Claude that gets it. Like we're using it. I
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: wouldn't say at a high level, we are actively using
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: AI in our businesses right now, and it's doing things
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: that humans used to do, and it's doing it better
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: than they were doing it and faster. Now, there are
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: limitations to how much I trusted with right now, but
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: there's stuff that's just just busy work right now that
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: it gets right. Every single time saves us an enormous
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: amount of time.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, all my emails are now written by AI nix.
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: The emails are written by AI. You can tell probably
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: most of my text messages and we'll start to go
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: that way too. If it is a very professionally written
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: text message then and it was written by AI.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: Well, just when you're talking about things that we used
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: to have to do from like a document perspective, and
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: we used to have to take something in read it,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: take part the important information out there, use that information
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: to then relay the certain key points to people via email,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: send calendar reminders, create all that type of stuff.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Like it's not hard work, It just takes time.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: Sure, well, it used to take us a half hour
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: and now it takes us literally less than three minutes.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: And it gets it right pretty much every time. When
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: we first started to build this thing and got it
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: wrong like eighty percent of the time, and then we
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: had to work on it and train it and tell
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: it all the things and have it rewrite its own
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: instructions and all that. So I'm just wondering, like, is that, like,
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: what where does that number come from? All numbers are
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: made up. Maybe maybe AI is trying to downplay itself.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: It's like, I'm not really that big of a threat.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: I get it wrong forty percent of the time.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: This is the play, don't worry about me. Yeah.
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: Also, this article right here that says it's thirty seven
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: to sixty percent of the time was from a year ago,
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: and we know how far everything has gone.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: So, and and that's also yeah, so that's yeah, that's
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: from March of twenty twenty five, and it says it's
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: it just says it cites incorrect sources.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, the source one of of that is is
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: probably the big deal. But let's let's let's move on
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: to this so we can get to all of it.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: So insurance crisis, right, that's you know, we've all felt
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: the pain over the last five years, and Texas insurance
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: rates are up over fifty eight percent. Yeah, so you
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: know you're seeing policies. I remember, you know my I
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: think my first policy was like thirteen hundred bucks, twelve
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: What is it now?
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: I think I'm almost at ten thousand dollars for my house.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: And it's a lot too. It's not ten thousand, but
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: it's way more than it used to be and.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: So so you've got that crisis going on that we
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: didn't have an eight, and then we've got again, we'll
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: go back to the frozen psychology eighty eight. You know,
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: we're you know, eighty eight percent of you know, in
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: this dowt, eighty eight percent of people reporting financial stress
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: are hesitating to make a move. Even though they're facing
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: financial stress. They don't want to make a move because one,
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: they also got these these low interest rates, but they
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: need the money. Right, I was negotiating, I was trying
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: to buy a house two days ago with a with
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: a homeowner houses paid for. He's in financial stress. He's
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: borrowing money to pay his bills. So he's borrowing, going
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: to more debt just to pay the other debt. And
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: I made him offer.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: He's like, I don't like it.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: I'm like, look, man, like this is what it's worth.
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: It's like, I'll just wait. I'm like, the longer you wait,
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: the more debt you're going to get into. Right, they're
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: just not motive. His house is paid for, is not
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: really risking at the moment losing the house, you know,
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: but he needs to make the move. The house isn't
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: just you know, it's definitely not in great shape, and
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: it's not he doesn't have the money to fix it up.
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: But you know, we're running into more and more of
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: these people with this and and people aren't wanting to
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: make moves or they're just holding on for this glimmer
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: of hope that you know, they don't want to give
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: up this low rate.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: So this is I'm glad we got to this point
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: in the conversation. This is where agents we can start
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: to talk about really actionable things in your business. One
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: of the key differences between the market that we're seeing
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: right now in the two thousand and eight financial crisis
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: is a matter of market sentiment. In the Great Financial Crisis,
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: one of the reasons that asset prices fell so low
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: thirty percent nationwide on average, is that what it was.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: It's because market sentiment was awful.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: People thought it was a really bad time to buy
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: a house, and so no one wanted to go make offers.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: Because it becomes a vortex whenever prices start to drop
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: because people are forced to sell because their arm has
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: spiked their interest rates. Now they can't afford their home,
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: and that starts to happen nationwide, then inventory floods the market.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: When inventory floods the market, the supply side rises, prices
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: organically come down. And when prices come down swiftly, then
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: everybody goes, I don't want to buy a house. House
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: are worth way less than they were last year. Why
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: would I buy one now? And then it's gonna be
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: worth less. And then the more people have that mindset,
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: guess what happens. The prices They go down and down
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: and down. That's a lot different than what we're seeing
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: right now. People are not, at least in my live
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: this is anecdotal. Maybe here in North Texas. I don't
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: hear a lot of people. There's gonna be some there's
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: always gonna be some naysayer. I don't hear a ton
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: of terrible market sentiment. That's just like, I'm just not
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: wanting to make a move because it's a terrible time
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: to buy a house. It is mostly why would I
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: give up my low rate? I can't afford to do
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: this because I have a certain mortgage payment on a
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: house that might not be the right house for me.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: But if I were to trade right now, I might
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: end up downsizing and paying more, and it doesn't make
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: sense for me. To do that, and it's gotten the
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: market frozen. But there is desire to trade. I find
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: that there is a lot of desire to trade in
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: this marketplace right now. The agents who are having great
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: years right now are using nix a famous quote of
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: they are solving problems and that's when money changes hands.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: It was way.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: There was a very distinct set of problems in the
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: financial crisis, and that created a black swan event. If
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: you pivoted and we started able to solve those problems,
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: your business hopefully did very well.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: If not, it probably struggled a little bit.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Here there are homes that people want to sell and
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: they cannot do it because they have an interest rate
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: that's locked in, or they're trying to protect equity that
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: they think they have and they're holding onto that.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense to trade.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: And when everybody's in that same situation, the agents that
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: can connect those two parties make a deal happen. They're
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: going to make a deal happen. They're going to solve
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: that problem. So how many buy or how many sellers
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: out there would sell if they knew the right property
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: was out there and a seller was willing to make
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: a deal, They were willing to pay towards a buy
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: down right there were there was, there's there's plenty of
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: variables that we can know, are levers that we can
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: pull to make deals happen. I don't see a complete
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: unwillingness to sell or buy right now because people think
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: that market sentiment is so bad and such a bad
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: time to sell. That's an important distinction to make for
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: agents right now. When it comes to the types of
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: activities you do in your business every day, Well, the
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: pain isn't great enough yet.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Oh eight you had you know, if we go look
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: at eight right, so you know you've got you've got
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: a broken system. You know, you have companies that are
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: are collapsing. We don't have companies collapsing right now, you
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: know we have you know, we don't have terrible unemployment.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: There is there is fear that maybe your job is
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: at risk, and it's almost a different type of fear like,
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: oh you't you weren't worried about being replaced by technology
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: or by robots or you know, you know now if
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: you if you're if you're an uber driver. I was
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: watching a video today on the uh you know, Tesla's
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: Robotaxi that thing looks legit.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: It will be guys Uber's got less than ten years, well,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: they'll still probably be Uber.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: But you just want to have Uber drivers.
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, what you're gonna do though, You're gonna go buy
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: your own ROBOTAXI. You're gonna and Uber is not gonna
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: own it. You're gonna own it. You're gonna make the
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: money off of it, and you're gonna yeah.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So but so you have all this.
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: Mortgage rates are the same, very similar, and and actually
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: are pricing. DFW pricing did fared better in the O
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: eight crash than it did kind of in this kind
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: of weird.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Twenty Prices have dropped more since twenty twenty four in
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: DFW than they did to they're in the Great Financial Crisis.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: That's an interesting you made an interest, and that's an interesting,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: you know point to make it all.
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: So if we kind of look at all this like
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: there was a playbook though in O eight and if
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: and if you were an agent along, if you were
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: an agent a long time, it was you get stuck
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: in your ways. So you had a playbook at that time,
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: and you could kind of see, you know, through that noise.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: I remember like two thousand and eight. You know, you
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: had the asset management firms that were taking on, you know,
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: for banks, the distressed properties. You were doing broker price
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: opinions BPO, so agents could go get paid, you know,
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: to go give the value of opinion. So there was
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: ways to make a little bit of money that way.
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: And then the goal was to work your way in
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: to start getting some of those foreclosures, those assets sent
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: over to you that you could list. And then you started,
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: you know, you started, we started marketing for short sales
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: and because the banks were offering you know, they were
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: offering five I know, Chase Bank at one time was
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: offering people ten thousand dollars to move over the house
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: to do a short sale, so you could qualify for
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: all that.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: We don't have that today.
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: So it's like, you know, it was fast and violent
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: in O eight, but you could kind of see you
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: could almost see it coming. You can almost see like
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: how to handle this. And now you know here in
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: our notes we put like twenty twenty six is like
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: a quicksand so you're standing on this, it's slow, you
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: move and you just keep sinking further and further and
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: further in and what it's doing is it's pulling the
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: average agent under and suffocating them to the point where
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: they don't have the resources, they don't have the grit
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: to try to figure this all out.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I agree, and that's it's a very simple market right now.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: Though we have willing enable buyers and willing enable sellers,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: they're just a little bit further apart than they used
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: to be. Their psychology is a little bit different, which
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: means that you, as an agent are going to have
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: to go find them motivated. You're going to have to
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: solve their problems, and you're going to be rewarded for that.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: If you're an agent right now, think about the people
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: that are having trouble selling their homes right now. Okay,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: so I just pulled this up like before I came
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: because I was on a coaching call. If you just
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: go to zillow right now and you just like remove
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: boundaries and zoom out a little bit on the metroplex
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: and you just look at fizzbos. There's like hundreds of them,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: hundreds of them right now out there, and their phone
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: numbers are right there, and those people, do you think
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: they have a better chance of selling their home right
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: now than if they were listed with an agent. Absolutely not.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: Do you think everyone is Every one of them probably
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: has a unique reason to sell, probably a few different ones.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: Do you think they're all motivated while they put their
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: home on the market, right? Do you think that you,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: as an expert could help them accomplish a goal and
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: solve a problem that they may have in their world?
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: That was certainly not an opportunity three years ago. It's
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: a big opportunity now. That's where you bring value.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: How many homes right now are coming off the market
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: because poor expectations were set by their original realtor, and
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: those people are still motivated to sell. If they had
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: an expert on their side, who could one go out
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: and have fierce conversation with them around pricing and expectations,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: go and assemble the team that's going to help get
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: them the best deal on their new home, whether it's
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: buy down, saving on their insurance, all that type of
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: stuff which great agents can do. Every one of those
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: people is raising their hand, and there are a ton
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: of them out there. If you just sat in prospect
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: it all day, you would find motivated people. And third,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: the difference between now and the financial crisis is I
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: would assume that in two thousand and eight. If you
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: were talking to your database, they were probably terrified of
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: buying a home back then because they look at markets
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: across the country and values are sinking dramatically month after
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: month after month.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: That's not happening.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: The biggest objection that you're going to get from the
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: referrals that you get from your database right now probably
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: going to be that they don't necessarily want to trade
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: out the sweet interest rate they have right now and
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: pay a high price for a home with a higher rate.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: These are problems that are solvable, though we have levers
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: that we can pull to solve those problems. And so
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: if you're simply lead generating every single day, you're going
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: to have conversations that present problems to you that you
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: have an you as an agent, have the ability to solve.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I have a feeling though we're just not having enough conversations.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: Kisbo's expires in your database. If you spent five hours
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: a day calling those sources, there's not a chance you
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: don't sell fifty homes a year a right.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: Don't check out because you're one hundred percent correct. People
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: are going to check out because of what you just said, said,
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: lead generate yep, And I want and I wanted to
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: pull something up and then do tiktoks. Yes, So I'm
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: glad you brought that up. We we did not We
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: did not script this. By the way, this was going
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: to be for a different show that I was pulling up.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: There was this Ohio influencer who just got found guilty
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: of a Ponzi scheme. And I was reading this and
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: and stat this is a Charles Schwab study that said that,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: and this was twenty twenty four by Charles Swab that
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: social media has become a financial info source for gen Z.
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: Seventy two percent of gen Z's take their financial advice
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: from from social media influencers. Millennials, it's fifty seven percent
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: gen X, thirty eight percent in boomers nineteen percent.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Right, And and.
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: The reason I'm bringing this up is like agents that
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: are getting into this, and you brought up TikTok. You
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: brought up kind of the We now have the real
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: estate agent influencer where you see them on Instagram. They're
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: making these funny dance TikTok. These these they're dancing their seeings.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: He does.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: But you start hearing all this and people are getting
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: into this, and they're seeing all these ads saying you
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: never have you know, attract buyers and sellers with never
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: cole calling, never get rejected. And what they're doing is
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: they're they're giving their social media playbook. And the problem
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: with that is that it works for the exceptions, it
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: doesn't work for the many. And and we're buying into
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: this hype and these agents, agents today are getting into
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: this thinking that all they need to do is go
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: live on TikTok or or do a funny dance with
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: a with a you know, trending you know song behind it,
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: and they're gonna people are gonna start flocking to them
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: and asking them to buy and sell and invest.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: In real estate.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: And it does work for some. Everything works for someone.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Can While you're talking, Jesse, we pull us on in
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: the background, I just want to I'm a curiousity that
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: the average savings that a millennial has in the bank
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: right now.
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: So while yeah, while we're you know, Jess is looking
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: that up. The reason I bring that up is that there,
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: you know, the the playbook that we have with this
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: is that not for one case, agents agents today aren't
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: really developing and mastering psicology and even sales psychology. They're
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: not mastering objection handling on how to appropriately take someone's
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: objection Brian and say hey, you know, if you're not
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: wanting to move right now because of low interest rates,
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: they don't know how to handle that. They're probably I
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: know many agents that are out there like, no, I
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: agree with you, you shouldn't move because you have a
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: three percent rate. Yeah, but they're not really digging into
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: it where a lot of homeowners are even with the
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: low interest rate, they're in massive credit card debt one
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: hundred percent that is twenty percent, eighteen percent, and they
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: could go and do a cash out REFI, they could
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: sell their house and get into maybe something more affordable,
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: but they're looking at only the.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: Interest rates and they have the leverage right now to
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: do it because inventory is picking up, sellers are being negotiable.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: You hit the nail net.
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: And so that's that was the that's kind of been
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: my my eye opening, you know, thought of this kind
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: of new age of that we're dealing with is two
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: thousand and eight, we didn't have that.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: We had Facebook.
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: I think my Space with MySpace was still around, I believe,
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: and you didn't really have to worry about, you know,
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: having to do a you know, you weren't worried about
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: trending audio and and being you know, social media famous.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: Here's here's I think I'm putting the pieces together here.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: I'm having a bit of an aha moment as to
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: why agents struggle so much. Right now, if you were
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: to go and do anything one hundred times a day,
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: every single day, we can all agree you'd start to
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: develop a pretty good level of.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Mastery at it. Right.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: If Jesse went out and chipped one hundred web shots,
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: which he probably could stand to do every day, right
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: next time we play, he'd be shooting lights out.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: Only if he was coached. Only if he did you
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: just did it wrong one hundred times? Did it wrong
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: a hundred times? It doesn't make him better?
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: That's fair, well, Rick, We'll go out there and coach him,
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: right we I don't want to sit here and say
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: social media it can't be an important part of growing
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: your business.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: It absolutely is.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: I would be a fool to say that, because there
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: are people out there that are building.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: Their brand only on that.
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: We wouldn't be doing the show exactly.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: This is.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: You're probably watching this on some social media platform, right, now,
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: all right, so obviously there is value in that. That's
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: not what we're saying at all. What I am saying,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: and I think I have my thesis that I'm sort
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: of developing here, is that social media, for the most part,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: it's not developing two way it's not inviting two way
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: conversations where you can solve these types of problems, and
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: so agents are just not having enough repetitions to help
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: people solve the problems that they're facing in their world
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: that they, as an agent, derive their value from from solving. Right,
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: If I talk to a hundred expireds a day, I
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: might not close them every one of them for an appointment,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: but I got to certainly learn a heck of a
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: lot about what they're dealing with, and I'm going to
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: get enough repetitions that slowly but surely, I'm going to
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: start to set appointments. I'm going to figure out how
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: I can help these people move on to the next
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: chapter of their lives. If all I'm doing is posting
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: on social media and hoping that people call me, well, One,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: there's a massive competition out there in that spectrum right now.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: So one, if I am going to be developing a
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: strategy that's primarily social media driven. The other thing that
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: agents do not do is they don't put the same
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: type of energy and effort and discipline into it that
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: they need to do with anything else. Social media is
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: not just something you do every once in a while.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: That's how agents approach everything in their business. You've got
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: to be very disciplined about it. But on top of that,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: I feel like we are just not having enough conversations
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: and that's why agents are struggling.
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: So Ben Kenny talks about this. Ben Kenny talks about one,
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: you need to learn how to say it first.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: Right, that's the role playing, that's the studying of the
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: scripting and the objection handling. Then you go from what
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: you just said is like you learn how to say it,
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: but then you have to say it enough times. And
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: he said, what we're most people and you know, they'll
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: they'll maybe they roll play, maybe they'll read the script,
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: maybe they try to understand in the beginning, but they're
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: not getting enough repetitions to master it.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: So you got it.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: You've got to first learn how to say it, and
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: then say it enough times that it just becomes natural.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: And so like if you go and talk to Ben,
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: who has been on thousands and thousands of appointments. Even
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: though he doesn't he doesn't do as many today, he
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: can still take you through the entire process and handle
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: any objection that you have and make you come to
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: an agreement of saying yes, like you would hire him
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: in a heartbeat. And he doesn't work. You know, his
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: group was selling five, six, seven hundred homes a year.
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: You know they still are doing that, just he's just
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: not heavily involved. But he's still selling at least one
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: or two properties a month, and and that's going to
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: be That's the biggest factor is that we're not we're
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: studying social media trends and we're studying like, you know,
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: we need to go out and make our content, but
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: we're not studying how to Like, all right, you go,
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: make you go make some You go to a model
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: home and you're dressed nice, you got some great trending audio.
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: You take them on a home tour even though you're
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: not talking, and then you have someone reach out to you.
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: What are you going to say? Sure, like we're fumbling
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: the ball there.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: I agree one hundred percent.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: I think that we're focused so much on building our
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: personal brand, that we're not focused on actually bringing more
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: value and having better conversations. A lot of this comes,
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: I think is an awareness and a data problem when
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: I have found that most agents do not have They
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: just do not have an idea of the fundamental numbers
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: in their business they need to hit every single day.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: The only thing you need to know to be successful
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: in real estate is how many appointments you need to
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: run every single week, and then how to go find
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: those appointments and then just go do it.
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: Right, If you set three appointments a week, that's all
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: you need.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: To do, you'd sell minimum fitty houses a year, more
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: like one hundred probably great.
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, three appointments a week, you're talking your spear, you're
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: talking to open you're doing open houses, you're bringing people in,
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: and you over time you a compounder. Where you're setting
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: three appointments a week, you would have more than enough
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: business and make more income than you've ever made and
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: any career that you had.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: So it's very simple, right. I'm not saying agents shouldn't
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: be out there trying to grow their personal band and
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: creating content every day. I think it's actually important. Part
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: of the business.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: What I'm saying is that if you need to set
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: a certain amount of appointments, Let's just say you need
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: to set two appointments a week to hit your goal,
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: it's one hundred appointments a year. If you run one
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: hundred appoinments a year, you better be selling at least
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: thirty forty houses. So you need to understand what are
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: my income goals. Based on my income goals, how many
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: homes do I need to sell? Based on how many
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: homes do I need to sell, how many appointments do
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: I need to run, and how many does that every
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: single week? And if your social media strategy is not
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: creating that many appointments a week, then you need to
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: still be having conversations on top of that until your
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: social media content and only that sets the right amount
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: appointments for you. Then after you're done with that hometour video,
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: hick up the phone and start talking to people and
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: set your appointments, and eventually one rf two things will happen.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: One you will start to transition to where your social
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: media content is setting more appointments for me, and you
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: get out of the prospecting game, or you'll just continue
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: to prospect because that's where your bread and butter is
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: or some variation. But at the end of the day,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: what you won't do is be sitting around waiting for
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: the next client to call you, thinking that you're building
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: a real estate business when you're really not.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: What's a layered approach.
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: So so that layered approach you go and batch it
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: in right, So if you're scheduling this out, you do
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: you can go and do all your content and make
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: it and make it one day a week. You know
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: you've got if you only work five days a week,
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: you've got four other days to go build your your
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: prospecting and proactive prospecting where you're reaching out and talking
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: to people and having real estate conversations and asking for
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: referrals and then doing your follow up, sending your email,
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: sending your text messages and then when they when those
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: people start googling you or they start following you on
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: social media. That layered approach is the is the compound
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: effect yep. And that's what is going to bring it
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: all together. Next week's shows is you know, so that
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: you tune in next week because we want you to
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: keep coming back. We want you to hit that subscribe button.
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: We want you to comment in our real or Facebook
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: group DFW Reelers. Next week we're going to go over
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: the seven step playbook. Right, we have the seven step playbook,
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: and you know when Brian breaks it all down, and
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: Brian's the numbers guy. If you hear it, he talks
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: about numbers and numbers don't lie. Right your actions, your
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: your actions will start to to to lie because the
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: numbers won't add up.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Well.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: If you just don't know what it is that you're
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: trying to accomplish, then you think that you're you're doing
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: a lot better than you are. There are many many
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: agents out there right now fooling themselves into thinking that
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: they're building a real estate business and they're just not.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: And that's that's that that nar numbers don't lie. Most
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: agents haven't sold a deal this year, and most won't
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: buy the end of the year because they don't listen
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: to the show, they don't listen to us, and they
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: don't take action. But that is the truth that that
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: most agents think they're building a business right now, and
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: they're not because the fundamentals aren't sexy. And we've got
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: to get back to doing the un sexy things right now.
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: So next week's show, the Seven Step Playbook. What what
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: I would ask for you to do is is want
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: subscribe and to tune in and tagging agents so that
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: they can they can check out next week's show. And
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: then also so if you really look at the comparison
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: between eight and twenty twenty six, most agents, and I've
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: meant to pull this up before the show started to
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: see how long the average agent has actually been licensed.
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: They didn't care about two thousand and eight. They weren't
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: in it right. But I can tell you that what
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: I'm feeling, and we kind of look at the numbers
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: as a whole, is that twenty twenty six is definitely
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: a harder market. But this is where you also as
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: you find your success. This may be the hardest market
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: that you ever experienced in your real estate career.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: This is where you start.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: This is where you start cutting your teeth, This is
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: where you start building those calluses, and this is where
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: you're like, you know, once we get out of that rhythm.
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: The average, the typical realtor has about eight years of experience,
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: So that puts us at you know what, twenty eighteen, yeah,
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, So they've never experienced something of the eight
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: they've never really been through. Eighteen wasn't bad then they
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: then they rode the twenty twenty wave. Yeah, and the
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: complaint was, like you know, it was the complaint at
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: that time. They were exhausted because they were working with
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: so many people. They had to go and negotiate all
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: these multiple offers, and so they've never experienced.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: So the callous is that they're going to be building
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: As long as they can stick through it the three
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: point nine million transactions, that's going to be tough. There's
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: plenty of opportunity for them to go get it. Yeah,
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: And there's plenty of opportunity here to help people because again,
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: like you said, money changes hands when problems are solved.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: There's still a lot of problems in this marketplace.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: You have to over educate, you have to understand the
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: numbers of it, and you have to get behind the
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: psychology of what's going to make someone want to move.
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: Moving's a pain, right Selling when you're in financial distress
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: is also a pain because most people have their head
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: in the sands, so they wait until the last minute
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: until that pain is so unbearable that then it's time
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: to make that decision yep, So you know, and you've
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: got to start asking the right questions.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, got to start asking the right questions.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: If there's one thing that you take away from this,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: you can't ask the right questions if you're not having
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: enough conversations. And I would just say pound for pounding,
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: agents in the marketplace are not having enough conversations right now.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: This is not a buyer or a seller problem in
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: your business. This is a market that has unique challenges
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: that you can solve if you talk to human beings
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: about them every day. So ask yourself, how many real
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: estate conversations am I truly having every day? And what
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: would my business look like if I committed to having more.
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: Guarantee you that that will change your whole world if
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: you just focus on it.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: It's hard to have conversations when you're making TikTok videos.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Unless those TikTok videos are put enough appointments in your
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: pipeline right now, then it could be part of your strategy.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: But you got to do something else with the other
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: seven hours of the day. Play golf.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, if you're starting a golf YouTube channel,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: maybe that's a whole other thing. In any case, let
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: me do a guest spot.
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: That's right, all right, Episode nine in the Books. Make
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: sure to hit that subscribe button on YouTube and leave
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: it lead Brian hateful comments. He loves them. And then
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: dfw riel is our Facebook group, going there and join us,
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: And then.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Too late to.
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: Promote the event because it will already be passed.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: But thanks for coming out. Thanks for coming out to
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday event.
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: And then we'll go back to our every last Thursday event,
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: our realtor meet up in May.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys hanging out. Episode nine in the Books.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Will see you next week. GF chune it up this
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: week at PFL your real Estate.
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: Weekly podcast too for agents who actually can pay party moves, listing, heat,
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: colding streets, dmy way
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: Listen