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If You Believe In PCA Then You Have To Go All In · Monday Morning Cubs Show

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Good morning, good afternoon, and evening, Chicago Cubs fans, and welcome back to the Monday morning Cub Show.
0:07
SPEAKER_00: Today is Monday, July something.
0:09
SPEAKER_00: I'll be honest with you, I don't have the date in front of me right now.
0:12
SPEAKER_00: I think it's the 19th.
0:13
SPEAKER_00: It could be the 20th.
0:14
SPEAKER_00: It could be the best day of your life, is what it could be.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: I'm your notes, Carl.
0:18
SPEAKER_00: This is a solo Monday morning cub show without Mahoney.
0:22
SPEAKER_00: And that's mostly my fault from a scheduling perspective.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: Because I'm on my way right now, early morning Monday.
0:29
SPEAKER_00: We're in the process of going to support a great local charity in Chicago called the First T.
0:35
SPEAKER_00: I forgot that we had this 7:30 a.m.
0:38
SPEAKER_00: tea time.
0:38
SPEAKER_00: So I'm talking to Mahoney yesterday.
0:40
SPEAKER_00: Somebody go yesterday.
0:42
SPEAKER_00: I'm not breaking HIPAA laws.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying when you have two young kids every now and then, illnesses run around the house.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: That's why I say there's no Mahoney this week.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: It's not an indictment on Mahoney.
0:51
SPEAKER_00: It's more me scheduling and just consistently as always, just being a fuck when it comes to saying, Yeah, I'll be there.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: And then forgetting to say, Yeah, I'll be there.
1:00
SPEAKER_00: So that's that's where we're at personally as we start the Monday morning cub show here.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: July 20th.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: It's it's honestly, it's an ugly day in Chicago.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: It's a weird, creepy this air quality stuff.
1:13
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what's going on in Canada with wildfires coming down.
1:16
SPEAKER_00: I know that our readings have been in the two to 800 bubbles, which is so unhealthy that it makes the history books.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: The two to the 800 bubbles.
1:25
SPEAKER_00: You're looking for air quality.
1:26
SPEAKER_00: I mean, once you get that score over 50, guys, you're pretty much fucked.
1:30
SPEAKER_00: Um, if you hear some onking in the background, that's a standard track truck, uh, truck traffic.
1:36
SPEAKER_00: I'm on 294 as we record this.
1:38
SPEAKER_00: There's a couple of big things we want to talk about this week.
1:41
SPEAKER_00: Uh, and again, if the audio quality is just a little bit behind, that one's on me here, guys, doing the best we can via Bluetooth.
1:48
SPEAKER_00: There's a number of things we need to talk about, Chicago Cubs, this week.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna prime ourselves for Friday.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: We're priming ourselves for a trade deadline.
1:58
SPEAKER_00: This is a pre-trade deadline show.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: I'm in a much better position to talk about some of the potential acquisitions.
2:05
SPEAKER_00: And the reality is, guys, there isn't nearly as much as what we need on the market to solve the problems that Cubs have to turn us into World Series contenders.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: So let me just repeat this slowly, okay?
2:18
SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna repeat this with some added context here.
2:21
SPEAKER_00: Because as inconsistent as we were in that stretch in May, what seven and twenty-two over 29, as bad as that was, the offenses that's a top five OPS.
2:32
SPEAKER_00: That's a top five team OPS in Major League Baseball.
2:36
SPEAKER_00: And when you talk to the players in Major League Baseball, the hitters, and you say, What's your most important statistic?
2:43
SPEAKER_00: Almost two out of three respondents uh say OPS.
2:49
SPEAKER_00: Now, some guys like James Wood, outfielder from the uh national, uh, from the nationals, will say something like, No, I like weighted run created plus.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: And then there's simpler guys who are just gonna be like, hey, I like looking at you know, my strikeout rate or something.
3:04
SPEAKER_00: Bullshit, whatever.
3:05
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
3:06
SPEAKER_00: OPS, obviously very important, is what I'm trying to paint the picture here.
3:11
SPEAKER_00: From the team perspective, from our perspective, from an individual hitter standpoint, you know, and the cops are top five in Major League Baseball and team OPS.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: Now, at the time recording, are they six?
3:20
SPEAKER_00: Did something happen last night?
3:22
SPEAKER_00: Are the baseball reference links not updated?
3:25
SPEAKER_00: You know, I know I know this.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: It's a good enough offense to win a world series.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: Let me repeat myself, it's a good enough offense to win a world series.
3:36
SPEAKER_00: In fact, significantly worse offenses in one World Series.
3:40
SPEAKER_00: So there's a great starting point.
3:41
SPEAKER_00: Two, the defense is top three in Major League Baseball.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: A lot of people would just easily say number one, you know, and how much of that is Pete Crow Armstrong in center field, how much of that is just unbelievable consistency across the infield and the fundamentals and the work that just gets preached and just like the steps Michael Bush takes, etc.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: You know, we in the meantime, we're we got a black hole in right field.
4:05
SPEAKER_00: Suzuki takes the field.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: So just keep in mind when we say we have one of the that's what honestly, Suzuki's presence in the outfield from time to time is the thing that prevents me from saying number one defensive major league baseball confidently, is because if every now and then you have a guy like that on the field, like you gotta be fucking kidding me.
4:22
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
4:23
SPEAKER_00: But like if we're gonna go behind the plate, we're so solid when it comes to calling games with our challenges, controlling the running game.
4:31
SPEAKER_00: You know, when I say so solid, I mean the collective.
4:34
SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying we're gonna be a lead in every single category.
4:37
SPEAKER_00: But if you guys can go ahead and show me one thing we do that sucks on defense, I'm all fucking ears here, boys.
4:44
SPEAKER_00: And that could be our first F-word here, not just five minutes into the show.
4:48
SPEAKER_00: Which reminds me here, guys, is I'm as I'm just sitting here thinking, getting ready to go.
4:53
SPEAKER_00: Honestly, hit a couple out of bounds because I'm gonna push a couple right, I'm gonna pull a couple left, I'm gonna get cranky, I'm gonna reach into the cooler.
5:00
SPEAKER_00: What do you think I'm grabbing?
5:02
SPEAKER_00: A lot of you guys are going, this guy's heavy IPA.
5:04
SPEAKER_00: Monday morning, 8:30, Northmore Country Club.
5:07
SPEAKER_00: This guy's absolutely going heavy IPA, maybe at Pacifico.
5:10
SPEAKER_00: You are fucking wrong.
5:13
SPEAKER_00: I BYO TV.
5:15
SPEAKER_00: I brought my own Thirsty Macero, a Mexican style soda with a signature spicy finish that's all bite, no rattle.
5:21
SPEAKER_00: The official beverage of the summer.
5:22
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be the official beverage of a deep playoff run.
5:28
SPEAKER_00: I can guarantee it out.
5:29
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna be sucking down thirsty McKerrows.
5:32
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, honestly, like we're bad boys, like we're bad boys who've been walking around the Sahara Desert and we're thirsty, and I need to quench it.
5:41
SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna reach into the cooler.
5:42
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna have a Mexican-style soda.
5:44
SPEAKER_00: When I say the signature spicy finish, I'm talking about really just holding a flavor profile at the top of your palette.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: I'm talking about the type of party in your mouth that lingers for just the right amount of time.
5:58
SPEAKER_00: Because there's nothing worse than when you throw a party, it's there all day long.
6:01
SPEAKER_00: You know, there's nothing, there's when the party goes too long, you know what I'm talking about.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: Um, and then when the party doesn't exist either.
6:08
SPEAKER_00: Those are two situations I don't particularly care for.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: I like a perfect amount of party, and that's what I think about when I'm talking about a thirst of a hero in your taste buds.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: If you don't believe me, the bubbles, the sizzle, I mean, you would think Willie fucking Wonka was behind this thing with the way it comes out, with the flavor designs.
6:25
SPEAKER_00: When they say it's watermelon, I mean, they really mean it's watermelon.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: So um, just on a quick note like that, Mahoney and I have been doing this segment where we just kind of the three bold flavors we did it last Monday with CB.
6:38
SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna go through it here quickly as we transition ourselves into some good meaty baseball talk.
6:44
SPEAKER_00: And so again, number one, the watermelon, the spicy watermelon is Pete Crow Armstrong.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: The spicy watermelon is the beverage that that gets people going, no FN way.
6:55
SPEAKER_00: I didn't know this was real.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: People are going, I didn't know that you could put this in a can.
7:00
SPEAKER_00: People are saying, I didn't know you could put Pete Crow Armstrong in center field.
7:04
SPEAKER_00: And and just watch how good he is.
7:06
SPEAKER_00: He's on pace to be uh one of the greatest single season center field performances of all time.
7:13
SPEAKER_00: I mean, like Nikki Dannel's at the top of the list.
7:15
SPEAKER_00: 11.3 baseball wins above replacement.
7:18
SPEAKER_00: When you put where Pete Carl Armstrong is projecting the season, he projects at 10 wins above replacement.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: Triss Speaker, who's one of the great center fielders of the early 20th century, holds the records for triples.
7:31
SPEAKER_00: Uh, is just like a general badass when you talk about old school baseball players and center fielders and historicness and that like Peter Armstrong is like comfortably in the Trish Speaker win above replacement discussion of whether you value old school baseball or not, you have to recognize Trish Speaker was light years ahead of the next guy.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: So, like that that's the context we're drawing here.
7:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying Trish Speaker coming to the Cubs tomorrow and hit fucking 3:30.
7:59
SPEAKER_00: What I'm saying is Trish Speaker is so much better than the next guy who was trying.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: The fact that Pete Crow Armstrong's in that conversation in modern baseball times, when everybody can train and everybody can go to, you know, and everybody can has access to the same amount of information and everybody's fast and everybody's strong.
8:16
SPEAKER_00: You know, that's the differentiator when everybody has access to these resources and Pete Crow Armstrong puts himself in a position where you go, You're so much better than who's the next best center fielder.
8:27
SPEAKER_00: You know, he's complete.
8:29
SPEAKER_00: I mean, he's just like completely.
8:30
SPEAKER_00: I I know Corbin Carroll's got body issues, and and he's not nearly as strong as Pete, but I don't who what center fielder?
8:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, shut the fuck up.
8:40
SPEAKER_00: That's what I'm saying.
8:41
SPEAKER_00: That's where Pete Crow Armstrong's at.
8:43
SPEAKER_00: He's so good as a center fielder.
8:44
SPEAKER_00: We go just shut the fuck up about him already.
8:47
SPEAKER_00: So you know, that's our spicy watermelon of the week.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: Our Mango Muerte is the guy who's just coming around on us, and and maybe maybe it took us a while, you know.
8:56
SPEAKER_00: And so, like last week, I think was Danby Swanson.
8:59
SPEAKER_00: This week I'm gonna go Alex Brendan just because I want to put the good Jeece behind him for a second half run here.
9:05
SPEAKER_00: And I think he's the type of guy who all-star break gets to reset, gets frustrated.
9:12
SPEAKER_00: You know, and he's he's got quick.
9:14
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna make a couple comparisons here between Alex Brendan and Nico Order.
9:17
SPEAKER_00: And again, I'm sorry if the audio levels are messed up here, guys.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: We're doing this on an AirPod, we're doing this on I-294.
9:24
SPEAKER_00: I got cruise control set at 66.
9:26
SPEAKER_00: If people are gonna bitch at me for, you know, this is unsafe.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: You shouldn't podcast and drive.
9:31
SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, honestly, on a Monday morning from what I've seen so far on 88, 355, etc., I mean, there's a lot of recklessness out here to begin with.
9:40
SPEAKER_00: So if you think me just sitting here topping off the top of my head as opposed to listening to 670 is dangerous, um, you know, we'll have to see.
9:47
SPEAKER_00: I don't know, nine and a half miles till exit fifth and two here.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: My point, though, generally speaking, is last week we did Dan's B.
9:53
SPEAKER_00: Swanson.
9:54
SPEAKER_00: Dan's B.
9:54
SPEAKER_00: Swanson was our Mango Muerte.
9:56
SPEAKER_00: And this week our Mango Muerte is Alex Gregman.
9:59
SPEAKER_00: And that's because I do think in the general concept is that come around that like told you, told you.
10:05
SPEAKER_00: And the reason is the mango muerte is always the flavor that you get.
10:09
SPEAKER_00: You go, I think I'm coming around on this, and then one day you wake up and you're having mango muerte with a fucking three-eg opera.
10:16
SPEAKER_00: You know, one day you it's just it's so inherent, it's plays all throughout the day.
10:21
SPEAKER_00: It just one day you just come around and you go, damn.
10:24
SPEAKER_00: That's where we're at with Alan Sprinkman.
10:25
SPEAKER_00: And then the Lamont Ladron is just obviously the one you trust.
10:29
SPEAKER_00: You know, the one maybe, maybe, maybe it's maybe it's not gonna blow your tits off your chest like PC, but you can absolutely bank on Lamon Landrone the same way you can bank on Michael Bush right now.
10:40
SPEAKER_00: And the fact that we open the season talking so much about can Michael Bush hit lefties, and he's really settled in just as like the everyday three-hitter on this team, you know, he won't get enough credit.
10:54
SPEAKER_00: And I won't give it to him.
10:55
SPEAKER_00: And that's just a positional thing, you know, like he'll never get the credit he deserves for being as consistent as he's been, and for really coming out of nowhere.
11:03
SPEAKER_00: You know, I still haven't heard shit about Jackson Ferris with the Badgers.
11:06
SPEAKER_00: I'm sure zero hope at some point is gonna be, you know, contribute like contributed to major league level.
11:14
SPEAKER_00: Those are the two guys the Cubs traded to the Dodgers for Michael Bush.
11:19
SPEAKER_00: And both guys were top 100 prospects.
11:22
SPEAKER_00: So the fact that Michael Bush has turned out to be not he's not Anthony Rizzo in his peak, but he's very consistent.
11:29
SPEAKER_00: He might just be like a taker a step below Rizzo.
11:32
SPEAKER_00: Now, the reason I'll never give Bush the credit he deserves is at the end of the day, you're playing first base.
11:37
SPEAKER_00: So, like in every team, everywhere when you start the season, you should have the expectation that your first baseman is gonna have a 120 LPS at the minimum because he's a first baseman.
11:48
SPEAKER_00: You know, that's just that if you you if you that's the goal.
11:52
SPEAKER_00: You just gotta find somebody you can hit and play first.
11:54
SPEAKER_00: That's why you hide him at first base.
11:56
SPEAKER_00: It's a hard position to play, etc., but it's also the easiest position to play on the diamond.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: No questions asked.
12:01
SPEAKER_00: No questions asked.
12:04
SPEAKER_00: So my point though is what you get, you get tremendous amount of offense.
12:10
SPEAKER_00: You know, and Bush has just been solid and he's just been so consistent.
12:15
SPEAKER_00: He's hitting three in this lineup.
12:16
SPEAKER_00: We don't really have a three hitter.
12:18
SPEAKER_00: I suppose it is Michael Bush, but these are just general, just general as we're getting out of Thursday guys along.
12:26
SPEAKER_00: Who are your three bold flavors?
12:28
SPEAKER_00: PCA, I just love what he's doing as a superstar.
12:31
SPEAKER_00: Excited to see from the second half run.
12:34
SPEAKER_00: Um, how much different is he this second half than he was last year, right?
12:39
SPEAKER_00: And that's gonna have a huge influence on do we catch the brewers, do you not catch the brewers?
12:43
SPEAKER_00: If we catch the brewers, it's gonna be because we win eight out of ten three fucking times in the last in the last 60 games in the season.
12:50
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be because we win what I it's we have to have three really good hot stretch runs.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna go down to Milwaukee Brewers to play 500 baseball.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: Now I know a lot of people are upset.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: I can't believe Milwaukee swept the Marlins, they scored three rugs in the bottom of the night, they win, all they do is come from behind and win all the shit.
13:07
SPEAKER_00: But if you're if you're over here telling me that the Marl, that sweep of the Marlins is moving your needle, and yet they scored three runs against the Marlins on a getaway day, you know, and like, yeah, it sucks the Brewers won.
13:21
SPEAKER_00: But like, I mean, it's not like they're dog walking motherfuckers, it's not like they're going out there and embarrassing teams right now, or they're making me feel like, oh shit, we can't catch that, we can't reach that.
13:31
SPEAKER_00: I mean, the reality is we had just as big of a lead last year as the Brewers have on us at this point in the calendar, and we completely squandered it with bad baseball while the Brewers played great baseball.
13:43
SPEAKER_00: So it's it's not to say it's impossible, you know.
13:47
SPEAKER_00: So much as to say it just happened us last year.
13:51
SPEAKER_00: So now that the tables are reversed, etc., or are we just playing for the top wild card spot?
13:56
SPEAKER_00: In either event, I think this transitions us perfectly to the point to say I'm ready to talk about the trade deadline and what my expectations are.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm ready, I'm ready to put myself out there like that, and I want you guys to come with me on this.
14:10
SPEAKER_00: And the reason is like, I think I think I would be okay.
14:14
SPEAKER_00: I think let me repeat myself, I I think I would be okay if we had to trade away everything for Terrence School.
14:22
SPEAKER_00: I think I would be okay with that.
14:24
SPEAKER_00: I'm like 55-45, 60-40.
14:28
SPEAKER_00: I thought I'd be fine with them.
14:30
SPEAKER_00: And the reason is B.
14:31
SPEAKER_00: Armstrong's so fucking good, and you have a number of these like grizzled veterans that are at like the prime of being a veteran.
14:39
SPEAKER_00: You know, Dan Smith Swanson should get worse in the season.
14:42
SPEAKER_00: Ian Ab should get worse in the season.
14:44
SPEAKER_00: Uh Nico Horner has gotten significantly worse this season.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: You know, at some point, even though I just got down blowing Michael Bush, like the wheels are falling off of that.
14:52
SPEAKER_00: Like, isn't say a Suzuki's contract up, you know, isn't it coming up?
14:58
SPEAKER_00: What I'm talking about is like this isn't this isn't the Rizzo Bryant window where you have these young superstars and you're like, Well, we're building around these guys, we don't want to give up what we have moving forward.
15:12
SPEAKER_00: But what do we have moving forward is payroll?
15:16
SPEAKER_00: Like, what we do have moving forward is Pete Clark, and I suppose Nathan Horner and Danzi Swanson for four more years.
15:23
SPEAKER_00: But from the standpoint of do I think it's possible for them to have a top five defense and a top five OPS every single year for the next four years?
15:33
SPEAKER_00: Like, I would be surprised if that happens again.
15:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, and and not I don't have wood in front of me, but I would knock the shit out of it while I say I think our positional depth has been great this year.
15:48
SPEAKER_00: You know, it sucks man Shaw broke his wrist.
15:50
SPEAKER_00: I think Noises by Asteroid needs to get more playing time, etc.
15:54
SPEAKER_00: You know, say Suzuki's obliques and all that shit, but like our in our injuries are condensed to very much the starting pitching.
16:02
SPEAKER_00: You know, in the bullpen, film naton's kind of night us, that's a bigger conversation.
16:07
SPEAKER_00: But what I'm trying to drive at here is that I think we've been extremely fortunate with the lineup.
16:11
SPEAKER_00: Can you count on that every yeah?
16:13
SPEAKER_00: You know, and who's to say something bad won't happen?
16:16
SPEAKER_00: But when I say don't get Derek Schoopel in the trade deadline, what I'm talking about is we we have we have a great lineup that has been extremely healthy and consistent.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: We have superstar potential for the playoffs.
16:27
SPEAKER_00: You're you're you're gonna need to win a three-game series or catch Milwaukee.
16:31
SPEAKER_00: It's one of those two.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: And and to do one of those two, you're gonna need the top end of the guy.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: The top end is Tarek Schubel.
16:39
SPEAKER_00: Now, that's the high end, that's crazy.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: The tigers are back in it right now.
16:43
SPEAKER_00: The tigers, Scott Harris would lose all credibility in Detroit if he traded away Tarek Schubel.
16:49
SPEAKER_00: Kevin McGonagall is a sensational player.
16:51
SPEAKER_00: I could go down the list, AJ Hinch, great man.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: I just go down the list of how many reasons there are where the tigers waving a white flag would just be silly.
17:00
SPEAKER_00: And then probably the number one reason would be you have fucking Derek Schubel in the first place.
17:05
SPEAKER_00: You know, if you're playing yourself into the wild card round and you're sending out the best pitcher in baseball, game one, uh, you know, that's like not a terrible strategy if you're Scotty Harris, if you're the guy running the little Detroit Tigers.
17:16
SPEAKER_00: Do you know what I mean?
17:18
SPEAKER_00: So, but on the high end, and as a Cubs fan, and selfishly and without considering anything but myself in this you know equation here, I would comfortably say, yes, give me Kirk Scuble right now.
17:30
SPEAKER_00: And if it's gonna cost me, I'll do it.
17:32
SPEAKER_00: If it's gonna cost me Matt Shaw, so be it.
17:35
SPEAKER_00: The organization doesn't respect this guy, not nearly as much as I do, at least.
17:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's obvious the organization doesn't look at Matt Shaw as a critical fucking piece of the infrastructure, or else they would have gone out and spent$35 million on Alex Bragman.
17:48
SPEAKER_00: It's as simple as that.
17:49
SPEAKER_00: So now as we're sitting around, we're going, well, can we get Derek Stuble?
17:53
SPEAKER_00: It's like, yeah, well, we would absolutely have to well guarantee this, we'd have to give up Matt Shaw.
17:57
SPEAKER_00: One, two, we'd probably have to give up Jackson Wiggins as well.
18:00
SPEAKER_00: Okay, so be ever really like that guy in the first place, you know.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: And if you're new to the show and you're wondering why I don't like Jackson Wiggins, and speak to his fastball command, you know, it's just it's just like shit people these days don't really care about that, like I'm not giving up on.
18:15
SPEAKER_00: I don't give a fuck what people say.
18:16
SPEAKER_00: I hate his fastball command, I don't like the fact he's an SEC douchebag, and he can't stay healthy.
18:22
SPEAKER_00: He couldn't stay healthy in Arkansas, he could stay healthy in high school, he can't stay healthy in the minor leagues.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: So now, so like, all right, fine, maybe he is a good major league pitcher.
18:31
SPEAKER_00: So what?
18:31
SPEAKER_00: So I could get uh 13 starts a year from him.
18:35
SPEAKER_00: I mean, my fucking ass, buddy.
18:37
SPEAKER_00: Like that that's that's that's where the bigger conversation comes from.
18:40
SPEAKER_00: Fine, I'll include Jackson Wiggins.
18:42
SPEAKER_00: The point of contention for me to surrender would be might eight to give it match up.
18:47
SPEAKER_00: I think I think Matchaw's only gonna improve.
18:52
SPEAKER_00: And I mean, when you look at the Cubs roster, there's a fundamental distinction in saying grizzled veteran or young fucking impact player.
18:59
SPEAKER_00: And I gotta watch the F-words, but we're the young impact players.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: There's one, his name's Pete Carl Armstrong.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: We have young impact on the left.
19:06
SPEAKER_00: No, do we have it at right?
19:07
SPEAKER_00: No.
19:07
SPEAKER_00: Michael Bush ain't young, guys.
19:09
SPEAKER_00: 30 ain't young in Major League Baseball.
19:11
SPEAKER_00: You know, Nico Orner, nothing about that guy's young, nothing about Danzby Swanson, Alex Bregman, or Carson Kelly is young.
19:17
SPEAKER_00: You got an argument for Miguel Amaya, and you got PCA.
19:21
SPEAKER_00: That's it.
19:22
SPEAKER_00: You know, unless you want to talk starting pitching injuries, sure, you got Kate Horton too.
19:29
SPEAKER_00: But my but that's what I'm saying with the Matt Shaw aspect is if you're giving that up, you're give you are giving up, you know, if he's healthy, 550 quality plate appearances a season.
19:42
SPEAKER_00: Which isn't, I mean, it's just like for a million bucks, who can play all over the field?
19:47
SPEAKER_00: So I think that's where I'm talking about real, that's real fucking sacrifice here, guys.
19:52
SPEAKER_00: That's not that's way better than the prospect, you know, for me in the perspective of the Tigers, if you put McGonagall and Mad Shaw up the middle, but you'd also have to give up about I mean you'd have to give up about loan, right?
20:04
SPEAKER_00: Include Jackson Williams, include Pedro Ramirez, include Mel Rojas, you know, include include, I know it's Jefferson Rojas.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: Mel Rojas is an old pitcher, it's a bad inside drum.
20:14
SPEAKER_00: But just you'd have to include like everything.
20:16
SPEAKER_00: You probably have to include Ethan Conrad.
20:18
SPEAKER_00: You'd have you'd have to give everything in your farm system up for Terrence Kubol.
20:23
SPEAKER_00: My point in just this extended would I go down that path.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: Hey, I don't think the Tigers do.
20:29
SPEAKER_00: Again, if you're even close to wild card contention and you are the Detroit Tigers, there's no way you're giving up Terrence Scuble except for what, unless somebody gives you five of their top 10 prospects, etc.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: Where you go, we just be more on we can't not Terry School's leaving at some free agency next year.
20:46
SPEAKER_00: It's two months of Terrence School for one playoff run, or like you're telling we could get these guys from the Cubs.
20:53
SPEAKER_00: That's the position you have to put yourself in.
20:55
SPEAKER_00: And that's I'm saying all of this to come back to the original point to say I'm comfortable if we end up doing that.
21:01
SPEAKER_00: If Jen Lawyer and Carter Hawkins do end up growing the balls to make that move, I'm fine doing that because of what I'm saying is I think it's a unique season and just how good Pete Crow Armstrong's been relative to the rest of Major League Baseball.
21:16
SPEAKER_00: Not that he's just good, he's he's it's like him at Show Ayotonic.
21:21
SPEAKER_00: I'm this isn't even conjecture, whatever.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: It's almost August, and we're sitting here at the numbers in front of us, and it's it's it's it's it's borderline unbelievable how good Pete is.
21:30
SPEAKER_00: So, like that's a that's a narrative following into the trade deadline.
21:34
SPEAKER_00: Like, he if it if if there's steam or momentum or the front office is truly convinced that Pete Carr Armstrong's a superstar, then you absolutely better go out and get a starting pitcher.
21:44
SPEAKER_00: And you you absolutely better go out and get somebody who can dominate game one of a wild card series because you didn't catch the burst.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: You can absolutely have to go out and get somebody who can completely change the tone of the clubhouse and send a message to all the position players that.
22:00
SPEAKER_00: Guys have been good enough this season.
22:01
SPEAKER_00: We believe in you guys in October, right?
22:03
SPEAKER_00: So, like, that's the high end.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: That's the very high end.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: And that's the Tarek Schubel high end.
22:08
SPEAKER_00: And I and I'm saying all of the same, I don't even get tigers to move him.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: That's an insane thing.
22:14
SPEAKER_00: It would be insane if they did.
22:16
SPEAKER_00: If they did, here's what it would take from the Cubs.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: And if that's where we ended up going, I think I would be okay with it.
22:23
SPEAKER_00: Although I would be very sad to see Matt Shaw play in another uniform.
22:28
SPEAKER_00: Now, how many people listen absolutely hate Matt Shaw on like personal grounds and political grounds?
22:33
SPEAKER_00: I'll address you quickly.
22:34
SPEAKER_00: Fucking lick my taint.
22:36
SPEAKER_00: That's not what we're talking about.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: We're not talking about whether or not you like Matt Shaw.
22:42
SPEAKER_00: I'm talking about a guy who can go out and give you quality, quality plate appearances by playing multiple positions on a field.
22:49
SPEAKER_00: And that shit to me, when I'm talking about a baseball player, is significantly more important than uh, you know, the company he chooses to keep and his religious beliefs.
22:59
SPEAKER_00: Now, that is all I have to say about the Matt Shaw personal stuff.
23:02
SPEAKER_00: And I know a lot of people don't like him for it.
23:04
SPEAKER_00: And personally, that's your decision.
23:05
SPEAKER_00: So I can't begrudge you for that decision.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: Is it's personal, it's your decision.
23:10
SPEAKER_00: Um, I'll just I'll just say keep just keep that away from me in this point in this conversation.
23:15
SPEAKER_00: Because this this conversation, this is baseball, folks.
23:18
SPEAKER_00: We're just here for baseball.
23:19
SPEAKER_00: We're just here trying to figure out what puts us in the best position to have the most amount of success now and in the immediate future, given the current status of our roster and where the money's at and what you can look like this to what this team looks like over the next five years.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: And while the Brew may have, you know, a significant advantage on us in the division.
23:40
SPEAKER_00: I'm still compelled to look at this lineup in this roster and say, you put these guys in October.
23:45
SPEAKER_00: This is a dangerous team because they fundamentally don't make mistakes.
23:49
SPEAKER_00: Not on defense.
23:50
SPEAKER_00: The approaches are very mistake-driven.
23:52
SPEAKER_00: Now we do go cold.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: You can't absolutely eat our lunch.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: You know, we're serving it around the fucking clock, my friends.
23:59
SPEAKER_00: We can absolutely serve lunch with the best of them.
24:02
SPEAKER_00: And you can come and eat it if you're a started pitcher in a major league baseball.
24:06
SPEAKER_00: You know, that is a fact.
24:09
SPEAKER_00: But in the same respect, look at what we've done without anybody.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Shodi Managa and Matt Boyd right now are just uh put the team on their back.
24:20
SPEAKER_00: And Colin Ray gives you five quality innings, and Avier Asab, whatever.
24:25
SPEAKER_00: You know, and maybe Jamison Taeon's coming back and isn't just the absolute worst pitcher in the universe.
24:35
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of different ways I could take, you know, where mentally how easy it is to upgrade started pitching.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: Anyone now from here.
24:46
SPEAKER_00: Because I spent a lot of time on Terek Scuble.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: Just now, for the purposes of saying, again, I don't think he's on the move.
24:54
SPEAKER_00: He would be the highest end of somebody on the move.
24:56
SPEAKER_00: The Tigers very likely won't move him because of where they've been unless we just completely blow their tits off.
25:03
SPEAKER_00: Now, what's more realistic?
25:05
SPEAKER_00: Some people said Joe Ryan.
25:07
SPEAKER_00: Joe Ryan doesn't move the needle from me from the standpoint of like, all right, now we have a guy who shuts down game one.
25:13
SPEAKER_00: I think he's solid.
25:15
SPEAKER_00: I think Joe Ryan moves the needle for me, like, oh, maybe we could end up catching the Brewers.
25:20
SPEAKER_00: Like, that's how I think he's that solid and that good of a player.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: Uh, where it could get into that, it's like that divisional, like, all right, maybe we can, maybe we can, you know, maybe we're good enough for that.
25:34
SPEAKER_00: But as far as playoffs, playoffs, as far as playoffs are concerned, there's really the only other name that kind of moves my needle would be a Freddie Peralta.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: And that's really more contract-based because it would be an o Mets are not even close.
25:52
SPEAKER_00: They'll have absolutely no ability to put Freddie Peralta in a position to put some put some playoff tape on the resume.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: Does that make sense?
26:02
SPEAKER_00: And that's kind of what uh you know, Freddie Peralta is missing before he declares his free agency.
26:11
SPEAKER_00: Is he's he's very much looking for the opportunity they'll put together just some like outstanding playoff tape.
26:20
SPEAKER_00: And so will the Cubs give him that opportunity, you know, somebody will.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, the Mets are definitely inclined to trade Freddie Prahl.
26:29
SPEAKER_00: Some people say maybe he's not as good as he once was, etc.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: You know what makes him very intriguing for the for October is he's very fastball change up driven.
26:38
SPEAKER_00: And that the changeup in the higher the circumstance, the higher the leverage, the more anticipation and excitement into a moment, the greater that advantage becomes when you can really throw fastball change up combinations and you can change speeds.
26:53
SPEAKER_00: The ultimate deception you have as a pitcher in Major League Baseball is in a high-leverage moment, changing speeds, coming off of an inside fastball with a good changeup is is just about the hardest thing to hit hard, with the exception of you know, Jacob Mizerowski's 104 mile an hour fastball.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: Like I'd probably put that that's up there as well.
27:16
SPEAKER_00: But as far as that's it, that's in the God tier status of pitches that you can throw in Major League Baseball.
27:22
SPEAKER_00: And and I'm not saying Freddie Peralta's changeup on its own is not that, but the sequencing and how he can get to that changeup then creates a filthy wipeout unhittable pitch, which might be a little bit too nuanced for like day-to-day rank and file maniacs.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: And I'm sorry, I'm doing the best I can in trying to explain this.
27:43
SPEAKER_00: But I would put Freddie Peralta clearly above a Joe Ryan, not giving a single iota or fuck about statistics or peripherals.
27:51
SPEAKER_00: You don't even go to FIP on me with this.
27:53
SPEAKER_00: Don't go to Eera plus, don't go to adjusted numbers.
27:56
SPEAKER_00: What I'm talking about purely is the October presence.
28:01
SPEAKER_00: Now, Joe Ryan may or I'm not gonna get into who do I think is a better option to help us catch the brewers.
28:07
SPEAKER_00: I think they both move the needle in in that way.
28:11
SPEAKER_00: And it's hard not to move the needle in that way if you're adding someone to our started pitching staff at this point.
28:16
SPEAKER_00: You know, when you go look at the bottom end of it, like yeah, of course Freddie probably would upgrade our chances.
28:22
SPEAKER_00: Of course, Joe Ryan would.
28:24
SPEAKER_00: Um but if I had to pick between the two for October for somebody to start game one of the wild card at home against Wrigley, you know, I like Freddie more.
28:34
SPEAKER_00: But I I don't this isn't like I don't like Joe Ryan.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying in this case, I clearly like Freddie more.
28:41
SPEAKER_00: You know, I think Joe Ryan would be an upgrade and and would be a huge addition.
28:46
SPEAKER_00: Would love to see Joe Ryan in a cuts uniform.
28:48
SPEAKER_00: I'm just being a kicky little bitch right now.
28:51
SPEAKER_00: And when I'm being a picky little bitch, I'm being specific and saying, you know, here's here's exactly how I feel about the starter pitching that's available in the trade market.
29:04
SPEAKER_00: Now, I am probably missing a couple names, but as far as I'm concerned, and based on the research that I did, those are the only three guys, the only three guys in this entire equation uh that I really think matter to me when we talk about trade deadline acquisitions for starting pitching, some starting pitching in the Cubs.
29:27
SPEAKER_00: Because all I care about is somebody that can drastically upgrade from a Matt Boyd to pitch game one of a playoff series.
29:36
SPEAKER_00: If you're telling me we're gonna go trade for somebody who's just gonna slot behind Matt Boyd in a two-spot in the playoff series, then I'm asking you who the hell is that?
29:45
SPEAKER_00: Who are we trading for that's like that?
29:48
SPEAKER_00: You know, so now we're talking about a rug of the mill tier number four.
29:51
SPEAKER_00: Well, in that situation, even if James Teon blows, give me the guy who's made 70 fucking day starts at Wrigley Field over the last four years.
30:01
SPEAKER_00: Like, give me that guy way more than I want to get a taste of.
30:07
SPEAKER_00: You know, whatever.
30:08
SPEAKER_00: Whatever that looks like.
30:11
SPEAKER_00: That C, you know, that clay homes territory.
30:16
SPEAKER_00: How about that?
30:16
SPEAKER_00: There's a name for you of what I'm trying to get at.
30:19
SPEAKER_00: The the clay homes of the world, the people that have great talent, and just like buddy, I'll I'll guarantee you that's three and a third fucking game, game two and a wild card at home.
30:32
SPEAKER_00: That's three and a third six walks.
30:34
SPEAKER_00: Please, no, thank you.
30:36
SPEAKER_00: Now, these are strong opinions.
30:38
SPEAKER_00: That's because they're mine.
30:40
SPEAKER_00: I didn't read this anywhere.
30:41
SPEAKER_00: This is an AI generated.
30:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm just shooting you straight as if we're sitting in the dugout.
30:46
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
30:46
SPEAKER_00: That's how we feel pre pre-trade deadline stuff.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: Is you is you start to hear and see stuff come out.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: Offense, we need almost nothing.
30:54
SPEAKER_00: I mean, assuming nobody gets hurt, we don't need anything.
30:57
SPEAKER_00: We have right-handed hitting that can come off the bench, assuming Sean comes back and is healthy.
31:02
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, the catching tandem has been interesting to see like a Maya get reps when Carson Kelly starts against left-handed starters that have terrible splits.
31:14
SPEAKER_00: So, like, even when we find ourselves in a situation where we go, okay, well, this here's a left-handed pitcher who fucking stinks.
31:19
SPEAKER_00: Like, we have righties that can dump them.
31:21
SPEAKER_00: Or I should say we have a lineup of righties already.
31:24
SPEAKER_00: The idea that we need to go get somebody who hits lefties hard, that's not on the table.
31:29
SPEAKER_00: One, uh, you know, two, obviously the bullpen.
31:33
SPEAKER_00: The bullpen's a huge issue, and I've heard a lot of chatter about basin miller.
31:37
SPEAKER_00: I'm very soft on hard throwing closers, big year deals.
31:43
SPEAKER_00: The Cubs have been soft on that forever.
31:45
SPEAKER_00: I would be astonished.
31:47
SPEAKER_00: Astonished.
31:48
SPEAKER_00: And I also think it would take a buttload to get based Miller.
31:52
SPEAKER_00: Not even if it's because they say the Padres aren't competitive this year.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: There's three and a half years of control on that.
31:58
SPEAKER_00: Now, whether you give a fuck about what that means as far as the you know, the Cubs having him for another three, the Padres have an immeasurable leverage with him.
32:06
SPEAKER_00: They don't have to trade him, they just can't trade him next year.
32:08
SPEAKER_00: They don't like the deal this year, they can do it next year.
32:10
SPEAKER_00: You know, there's so many different ways for the Padres to unload Mason Miller and get some value for it.
32:16
SPEAKER_00: That's just a fact.
32:18
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, and and I'm not trying to put us down and say the bulk, we're not gonna upgrade the bulk pen.
32:25
SPEAKER_00: We absolutely are gonna upgrade the bullpen.
32:28
SPEAKER_00: It's just gonna be in a way, shape, or form that doesn't feel like Mason Miller and Rollis Chapman.
32:33
SPEAKER_00: Does that make sense?
32:36
SPEAKER_00: And I'm not, um again, if it were if it were up to near if if we just made these decisions in a vacuum, you know, and there and there was no the there was no impact on the future or whatever, sure, go get Mason Miller, then go get Terek Scuble.
32:52
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you'd have to give the Tigers like five percent of our future income for like the next 20 years to get Terek Scuble.
32:59
SPEAKER_00: That's the price tag, you know, that's the substantial price tag.
33:02
SPEAKER_00: So um, I don't want to go too long into tooth on this.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: I just want to give some good pre-trade deadline stuff as we think of coming into this, coming into the second half, we're ahead's at.
33:13
SPEAKER_00: It's not gonna be in the lineup, obviously.
33:15
SPEAKER_00: We do have enough people to move.
33:17
SPEAKER_00: Mad Shaw is good enough.
33:19
SPEAKER_00: Moises Fiasteros is good enough.
33:21
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to move either of those guys.
33:24
SPEAKER_00: If we did, it better be for Terrick Scupel.
33:26
SPEAKER_00: I think Pedro Mirrors and Jackson Wickens would be good enough for Freddie Caralta.
33:31
SPEAKER_00: I think they absolutely would be good enough for Joe Ryan as a package, and I would be totally fine if we had to make that move and say goodbye to those guys.
33:41
SPEAKER_00: And this isn't, I've enjoyed watching Pedro Mirrors play.
33:44
SPEAKER_00: That's great.
33:45
SPEAKER_00: If you're telling me we can't replace him, as a luxury tax team, as a team consistently over luxury tax now, I should say, or willing to go over the luxury tax, who's clearing$140 million of payroll.
33:57
SPEAKER_00: What are we clearing?
33:58
SPEAKER_00: $125 million in payroll in the next two years when we can't replace Pedro Ramirez's at bats, then we stink.
34:05
SPEAKER_00: Then we we are so bad we shouldn't even be hosting a podcast here.
34:08
SPEAKER_00: We should not be having this conversation.
34:10
SPEAKER_00: And that's where I'm at with those guys.
34:12
SPEAKER_00: Now, Bias Daros, that's a little bit different.
34:14
SPEAKER_00: More natural hitter, more natural power.
34:17
SPEAKER_00: Matt Shaw, that's a little bit different.
34:20
SPEAKER_00: He has the gene, you love it.
34:22
SPEAKER_00: You just know that guy wants to play hard every day.
34:24
SPEAKER_00: That's very difficult to replace.
34:26
SPEAKER_00: There's no amount of money you can pay guys to get them to play as hard as Matt Shaw does.
34:31
SPEAKER_00: So that's that's the issue we have with Schauser in in moving on from Schauser, I should say.
34:37
SPEAKER_00: So, and and now what I'm saying is got by any stretch of the imagination, is what do I consider what I'm saying to be gospel or that you gotta if I I gladly entertain dissent and I want disagreements, I want people to tell me I'm wrong, that I'm a stupid idiot, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
34:55
SPEAKER_00: I want that because I want people who are have vested opinions in this opposite me.
35:00
SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm very interested in what somebody on the opposite side of this would say.
35:06
SPEAKER_00: My general ecos is that it's rare to have the combination of collective team offensive approach that's been successful.
35:14
SPEAKER_00: I know they get blanked, I know they look like shit, I know they can be inconsistent.
35:18
SPEAKER_00: What I'm saying is it's rare to run in a team that can still say, hey, we're gonna be top five.
35:24
SPEAKER_00: Pat Chicago's at top five.
35:26
SPEAKER_00: We're top five in OPS, and we're top three in defense, and we don't have any of our good starting pitching.
35:32
SPEAKER_00: So really we're just one or two away.
35:34
SPEAKER_00: And I'll remind you, Matt Boyd, since coming off the I.O.
35:38
SPEAKER_00: won six ERA and like 20 some, you know, what is what is it, 27 innings?
35:43
SPEAKER_00: It's as good as Matt Boyd's ever looked when it comes to uniform since he's come off the I.O.
35:48
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, a lot of reasons to be positive, enough at the trade deadline to take substantial risk.
35:58
SPEAKER_00: Enough positivities 100%, so that when it comes down to it, you know, we have to make that decision.
36:07
SPEAKER_00: Do we give this guy up?
36:09
SPEAKER_00: Do we not give this guy up?
36:10
SPEAKER_00: Is he part of the plan?
36:11
SPEAKER_00: Is he not part of the plan?
36:12
SPEAKER_00: Is this the future?
36:13
SPEAKER_00: Is this not the future?
36:14
SPEAKER_00: You know, how much of it this year I want to separate myself from the NL Central and just say, what are our best chances for October?
36:26
SPEAKER_00: What are our best chances to host wildcards?
36:28
SPEAKER_00: We're six games back.
36:29
SPEAKER_00: Milwaukee's got an elite pitching staff, they don't make a ton of mistakes.
36:34
SPEAKER_00: If we're making a move here and we're improving the roster, how do we win that first series again?
36:39
SPEAKER_00: The clearest answer is through the pitching staff, and the clearest answer through the pitching staff is getting the number one that could pitch in front of Matt Boyd.
36:48
SPEAKER_00: Do I think that happens?
36:49
SPEAKER_00: There's only a few names on that list.
36:53
SPEAKER_00: There's very few names on that list.
36:55
SPEAKER_00: But I would pursue that first.
36:57
SPEAKER_00: That would be the number one thing I'm pursuing if I'm Jed Hoyer.
37:01
SPEAKER_00: From a bullpen standpoint, this is where you just easy as a rollish chapman in 2016.
37:12
SPEAKER_00: The reality is that they have to be creative.
37:14
SPEAKER_00: And they just you got they have to go hunt the guys of weird, they have to go hunt the guys there that that only the Sickles are talking about.
37:22
SPEAKER_00: That's my that's my honest to God sincere opinion about the bullpen.
37:28
SPEAKER_00: It can be improved.
37:29
SPEAKER_00: I don't think the cost is gonna be too high.
37:34
SPEAKER_00: And I very much on the matter of improving the bullpen.
37:40
SPEAKER_00: This is where you just have to suck it up and you just have to trust the fact that Geld and Carter Hawkins are gonna make good moves, are gonna bring in the right, the right mix.
37:55
SPEAKER_00: Um, is is that a safe bet?
37:58
SPEAKER_00: Not necessarily.
38:00
SPEAKER_00: You know, is that a comfortable bet?
38:02
SPEAKER_00: Not necessarily, but that's just the reality.
38:07
SPEAKER_00: And uh, this is the Monday morning cup show, guys.
38:10
SPEAKER_00: So I I I regret I regrettably will have to tell you guys that I will see you guys shortly.
38:17
SPEAKER_00: I will see you guys next Friday.
38:19
SPEAKER_00: Um, and until then, I know not to not to be too abrupt or whatever, but I I am running late and I do love you guys very much.
38:27
SPEAKER_00: And I wanted to give you some pre-trade headline primer.
38:30
SPEAKER_00: This week is important because the schedule does get more difficult.
38:33
SPEAKER_00: All you have to do is look at it.
38:35
SPEAKER_00: In the meantime, um go ahead, subscribe to the show, review the show.
38:40
SPEAKER_00: We were at five stars on Spotify, and then I and then I posted the show, and then somebody one star bombed us, and I'm fucking mad about it.
38:48
SPEAKER_00: You know, who cares?
38:49
SPEAKER_00: We got a three game series tonight against the Tigers, and I got a lot of faith in this team.
38:55
SPEAKER_00: We just need to play good enough baseball.
38:57
SPEAKER_00: And then I would like to see starting pitching added at this trade deadline.
39:00
SPEAKER_00: And as we're getting into it, we'll have more coming for it.
39:03
SPEAKER_00: Heavy mailbag Friday.
39:04
SPEAKER_00: Expect Mahoney to be back.
39:05
SPEAKER_00: Until then, guys, thank you very much for tuning in.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk to Lovely Boats.