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Nick Tuffley: ASB chief economist on the unemployment rate · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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  Speaker 1: So unemployment came in five point three percent for quarter one.
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  Speaker 1: That was down from five point four percent quarter four
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  Speaker 1: to twenty twenty five, still to feel the full impact
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  Speaker 1: of the water course, it did include a month of it.
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  Speaker 1: Youth unemployment is the one you want to watch. That's
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  Speaker 1: up fourteen point four percent from thirteen point three. Wage
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  Speaker 1: growth also out of five year low two percent. Nick Tuffley,
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  Speaker 1: Asbchief Economist.
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  Speaker 2: Nick, good morning, Good morning.
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  Speaker 1: Worst is yet to come on jobs.
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  Speaker 2: Well, we do think we'll see a bit of a
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  Speaker 2: hiccup in hiring through the middle parts of this year,
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  Speaker 2: but we've we've got a view that employment will be
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  Speaker 2: sort of fairly flat rather than something catastrophic. Well, we'll
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  Speaker 2: obviously have to wait and see, but the next quarter
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  Speaker 2: or two. So where we are now and over the
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  Speaker 2: next few months is sort of more the danger zone
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  Speaker 2: because that's where we're in, that time where people are
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  Speaker 2: adjusting their spending habits and being more cautious, and businesses
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  Speaker 2: are sort of deferring or reconsidering decisions or just hunting
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  Speaker 2: down to wait and see for a little bit.
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  Speaker 1: The young people who are not in work, not training
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  Speaker 1: all that good stuff. The number going up is is
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  Speaker 1: this normally what happens when there is problems with employment
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  Speaker 1: and it's the young ones who have the most trouble
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  Speaker 1: or is there something more going on here?
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  Speaker 2: Well, unfortunately, it's the pattern that we often see because
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  Speaker 2: your younger people are people who have less experience, if
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  Speaker 2: they're coming out of say school or university into a
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  Speaker 2: market where hiring is pretty cautious, and that's the sort
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  Speaker 2: of environment we've been in for several years. Unfortunately, it's
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  Speaker 2: tough getting that first job that gets you on that
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  Speaker 2: employment leader. So unfortunately, this is a pattern that we
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  Speaker 2: do tend to see.
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  Speaker 1: How long before we see wages start to uplace inflation again, Well.
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  Speaker 2: At this point, we expect wages are going to be
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  Speaker 2: sort of pretty pretty muted really, so we don't really
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  Speaker 2: see wage growth sort of gathering a lot of steam
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  Speaker 2: and being too much of an inflation problem. So we
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  Speaker 2: expect that wages are going to remain that the growth
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  Speaker 2: of them there remains sort of fairly steady, sort of
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  Speaker 2: roughly where it is. So, look, we're not in the
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  Speaker 2: environment we were in a few years ago where because
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  Speaker 2: you had super low unemployment, employees scrambling to find people
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  Speaker 2: and paying huge wage increases even though there wasn't any
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  Speaker 2: productivity there that caused quite a bit of inflation. This
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  Speaker 2: time around, we're not so likely to have that problem,
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  Speaker 2: even though inflation is pretty high, but means that we're
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  Speaker 2: not getting that compensation, so to speak, in their pay
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  Speaker 2: packets for these that are added fuel costs and some
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  Speaker 2: of the other costs increases.
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  Speaker 1: In your case, giving with one takes with the other,
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  Speaker 1: doesn't it. Nick, Appreciate your time, Nick Tafley, a speechief Economists.
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  Speaker 1: You're on news TALKSB for more from earlier edition with
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Ryan Bridge.
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  Speaker 2: Listen live to News Talks here' be from five am weekdays,
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