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Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Friday Football | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason | 8/28/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this mad.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: crown Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me now.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: It was really low scoring, though. San Francisco put up
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: a bunch of runs in the eighth inning, and it's like,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: don't even tease me, man. When you know you're going
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: to get a loss on it, why would you make
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: it even close? Don't pretend like you're going to actually
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: get this thing to go over. It's so bad, and
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: at that point, you also know San Francisco's not going
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: to bat in the ninth inning, so that's another problem
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: where I really wasn't sure that San Francisco was going
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: to win that game. They definitely did, but yeah, Arizona
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: didn't put up their end of the offense at all,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: which is not really what I expected, so whatever. You're
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: not going to win every game. Run a decent run
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: this week anyway. We'll move on to today. I'm going
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: to have a couple of baseball plays here, and I
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: will have a WNBA play. Yeah.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Let's get into this crap here. Chris Sale was very good,
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: although I will say Atlanta won every game in that
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: series by one run. The first two games, they got
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: extremely lucky with the Dodgers stranding guys on base and
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: scoring position all over the place at the end of
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: those two games. Yeah, whatever. Dude, the Red Sox swept
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers in L.A. Like, do you think the Red
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Sox are going to win the World Series? There's absolutely
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: no way. So L.A. is just like, they're on cruise
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: control right now. Like, they're going to win the world series.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: LA is like, I don't even think, I don't know, man.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess again, like I said, I think
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee has the best chance to take them out. Um, no,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: absolutely not. The Red Sox, they have zero chance, zero. Nope.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Not happening. Um, the team doesn't have enough experience on
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: it or experience together. The manager doesn't have experience. No,
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: not happening. Um, Cincinnati at the Cubs here. We have
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: an afternoon Wrigley game here. First look at this, I'm like,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: oh my God, this pitching matchup is bad. So maybe
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: that is, maybe first instinct is the way to go here,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: which would be to look at the over. The Cubs
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: are returning home from a road trip. And you know,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: I talk about that when a team has been on
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: the road for a week plus and now they're coming
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: back home. I think that's bad. They have to get
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: back to home life, whatever. It can be a distraction.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to pay that much attention
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: to the last place Reds here. And maybe the Reds
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: will have a reason to get up for this because
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: the Reds are playing one of their divisional foes and
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: might want to try to, you know, just win the game,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: play spoiler, whatever. Reds finally broke a losing streak last
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: time out, a three-game losing streak. They beat the Giants
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: two nights ago. So both teams were off yesterday, so
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: we have rest on both sides here. Both teams are
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: actually coming back from the Pacific time zone, I think,
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: or I guess the Cubs were in Arizona last week.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: Both teams have kind of a similar travel spot here.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: The Cubs definitely have the better team, the better bullpen,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: and the better offense. Cubs are number 11 in bullpen whip.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: The Reds are 25th. Cubs are number one in offense,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: and the Reds are 25th in OPS. So some pretty
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: big gaps there. But, again, I don't like the Cubs
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher here. I don't like the Reds pitcher at
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: all either. Rhett Louder is pitching for the Reds. Bad
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: stuff here. 5.13 ERA, 1.47 WIP, 6.92 road ERA. Really bad.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: So Louder, his home road splits are very much against
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: him on the road here. He's way worse on the road.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: He's been somewhat okay over the last month or so.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Nothing really spectacular, though. Doesn't strike out a lot of
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: guys at all. His hit rate is too high on
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: the season. His walk rate is mediocre. His strikeout rate
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: is very low. So strikeout walk ratio below 2, not good.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per 9, 7, not really that good either. Louder, though.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Cubs, believe it or not, quite good,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: even though it's not a huge sample. 26 at-bats. Most
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have faced him, and he's held them
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: to a 154 average, 603 OPS. The only extra base
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: hit is a home run from Conforto. Four strikeouts, seven walks, though.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: That's obviously a bad ratio. Do I trust Louder? No,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: but he does have good matchup numbers here. I really
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: don't trust him on the road, though. David Peterson is
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Cubs. I don't think he's good either. 5.17 ERA, 1.5
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: whip is really bad, although remember, A lot of that
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: was with the Mets and he has been better since
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: being traded to the Cubs. He's been bad as a
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: home pitcher though. 6.16 ERA at home. His home struggles
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: have somewhat continued with the Cubs. He had one really
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: bad outing though. His first outing with the Cubs at
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: home was really bad and then he's actually been pretty
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: good in the other ones. He is pitching pretty well
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: right now though. He's had a good month of August.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Good command numbers here. Had one shortened start for some
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: reason but He hasn't allowed more than 300 runs in
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: any of his starts, going all the way back to
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: that one bad start that he had against St. Louis
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: right after joining the Cubs. He still has pretty bad
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: numbers here, though. His hit rate is too high on
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: the season. His walk rate is okay at best. His
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is, I guess, okay. Strikeout walk ratio is
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: around 2, which is really not good. Strikeout per 9
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: is below 8, which is fine, but nothing spectacular at
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: all there. Peterson against the Reds, not good. 85 at-bats here.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: 376 average, 924 OPS, 19-8 strikeout walk ratio. So Peterson
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: does not have good matchup numbers there. Both pitchers are
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: in the wrong side of their home road splits here.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: I think the two ways to play this game are
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: either to take the Reds' first five, even though do
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: you really want to trust Rhett Lowder, though? I don't know,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: but the money does seem to agree with this. Remember,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: it is the Cubs returning home from a road trip,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: and louder has the better matchup numbers. So there are
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: some indicators that the Reds are possibly one of the
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: right ways to play this game. 89% of the tickets,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: 65% of the cash on the Cubs. The money agrees
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: with this. The Cubs are a big favorite. They dropped
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: from minus 200 down into the minus 180s. So some
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: of the money is basically just saying, well, we think
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: there's value here on the Reds. If you're going to
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: do it, I would say play like the run line
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: in the first five and just focus on louder, possibly
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: being able to outpitch Peterson there, take the half run
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: with the Reds in the first five. Possibly the better
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: way to play this game is to just take it over, though.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Those would be my two leans in this game, though,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: to take the Reds' first five run line or to
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: play the over. The total looks like it's mostly eight
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: and a half out there, so you might be able
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: to get it below that key number nine. It is
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: going up, though. There is apparently money coming in on
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: the over here 82% of tickets, 87% of the cash
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: on the over. Some books will have the 8.5 juiced,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: like minus 120 on the over. That's probably what I
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: would do, like get it below that key number of
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: 9 at least. Both pitchers I think suck, so that's
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: basically the reason why I'm just fading both starting pitchers.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: They're in the bad of their home road splits. I
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: think it makes sense. And you have one bad bullpen here, too,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: the Reds. But the bullpens are rested because the teams
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: didn't play yesterday. And, you know, a lot of times
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: I look towards unders after rest, which maybe I should have... Well, no,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: there wasn't any rest factor into the game yesterday. I
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: don't know what I'm saying. But when there is rest, yeah,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: like the hitting could cool off a little bit and
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: you get rested bullpens. So... The unders make a little
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: bit more sense sometimes. And the Chicago spot there, the
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: hitters might be thrown off a little bit by the
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: return home spot. So there are some things that give
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: me some pause on all of that. But, yeah, those
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: would be my opinions on that game. Dodgers at Detroit.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: Detroit has a rest advantage here. Detroit's staying at home,
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: and they did not play yesterday. You might think the
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Dodgers should bounce back here because they're just got swept,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man. I mean, they played yesterday,
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: so they have a rest disadvantage. They have to travel,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: whereas Detroit does not. So there are definitely some advantages
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: to Detroit here, and motivation probably should be on Detroit's
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: side here too because they're still trying to make the
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: playoffs if you think that they still are. dodgers are
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: kind of on cruise control right now man i think
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: uh the dodgers don't really have that good of a
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: bullpen they used one guy out of it yesterday and
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: of course detroit was off dodgers are ranked 12th dodger
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: uh tigers 14th but i think detroit has the better
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: bullpen their era is a bit better than the dodgers
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: and the whip isn't that far off dodgers are the
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: better offense they're number two offensively and they are good
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: on the road uh Detroit is, where are they, 16th
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: tie with Baltimore and Kansas City. So, yeah, Dodgers definitely
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: have the better offense. And then, of course, the Dodgers
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: do have a huge pitching edge here, though, because Tarek
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Skubal is pitching, and he might get up for this
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: because you know what this is. He's pitching against his
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: former team for the first time. So the team that
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: just got rid of him, Skubal gets to play against them.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: He's probably going to get a little bit– extra motivated
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: for this game he's had a good season 2.91 era 0.95
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: whip he's been better on the road 2.15 road era
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: however he's pitching in his former home and at home
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: he was a little bit worse 3.53 home era so
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: maybe he's not going to pitch as well in this
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: stadium i don't know uh it's weird uh you know
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: like looking at his home numbers that came in this
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: stadium but now he's a road pitcher in this stadium
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: so what does that mean i don't know but he
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: is pitching well right now for um The Dodgers, he's
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: basically been good since they got him. All of his
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: starts have been good, so there's nothing to really complain
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: about here. He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. All these numbers are good. Strikeout per nine,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: or strikeout walk ratio, I mean, is seven, which is
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: quite high, really high, and almost an 11 strikeout per nine,
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: so that's also really good. Scooble against... Detroit. They're not
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: going to have that many hitters who have faced him
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: because he spent his whole career there. The guys that
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: have faced him actually have hit him well, though, which
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: is Baez, Jokes, and Torres. They have 15 at-bats against him.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: They have a. 467 average,. 1246 OPS against him, two
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and three walks. All the walks are Torres. Does
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: that mean School's going to pitch poorly here? No. I mean,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: I don't think he will, but there are some indicators
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: that Maybe it's not the best matchup for him, and
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: maybe not the best location for him, although he might
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: get extra excited for this. And on the other side,
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Drew Anderson is listed as the starter for Detroit, so
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: this is basically a bullpen-ish game for them. Anderson is mediocre, 4.09 ERA, 1.29 whip.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: He was in the bullpen for most of the year.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: He is good at home, though, 3.19 home ERA. And
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: since he's been kind of starting, they're kind of letting
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: him go a little bit deeper. He's pitching pretty efficiently.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: They're letting him go like 70, 75 pitches, and he's
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: getting through five innings now in some of these outings.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: So he's not pitching that badly. So he goes out there,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: and he's kind of serviceable, and he's not really killing
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: them right now. He's going up against a really good
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: Dodger offense here, though. They only have three guys who
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: have faced him. They're only a combined one for three off,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: and Freeman has the only hit with a double. One
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: strikeout here from Otani, no walks. Not a huge sample.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: There's no huge sample to look at here. Dodgers are
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: a massive favorite, though. By the way, I think if
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: you're going to play this game, I would say pick
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Scooble must start, but don't pick a starter for him. Detroit,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: because they might put an opener in front of Anderson
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: or something like that. Like Anderson will probably get the
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: bulk of the workload, but we don't know. I don't
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: think we know absolutely that he's going to start this game.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: I think he probably will though. Minus 200 is around
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: where the price is for LA here. Way too heavy
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: of a price, especially with a team that like, you know,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: you're getting taxed for that, right? Like it's the Dodgers
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: with Scooble on the mound. You know, that line is
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: going to be juiced up 84% of the tickets, 66%
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: of the cash. on L.A., and they don't have the
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: rest advantage here, like I said. It sounds maybe kind
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: of crazy, but I don't know, man. I think the
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: way to play this game is maybe to take a
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: shot with the Tigers. I would say full game, take
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: them plus the one-and-a-half runs. You probably get a decent
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: price on that. If they're losing, they'll get to bat
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: in the ninth inning and maybe be able to pull
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: within that number if they're behind. I think Detroit might
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: have the bullpen edge here, even though the Dodgers only
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: used one guy out of the bullpen yesterday. But yeah,
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: I think that is what I would do if I
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: was going to play this game. I would play Detroit
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: plus the 1.5 on the run line there. The total's low.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: It's at 7.5, so oddsmakers think it's going to be
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: a low-scoring game. And when it's a low-scoring game, that
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: means the underdog has a better chance to hang around.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: And the market read seems to be indicating towards Detroit.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: The money seems to kind of be indicating towards an under.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: with more of the ticket percentage on the over here.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know about that. I don't really have a
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: great feel for the total there. I mean, it's possible,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: I guess. I mean, you have two okay bullpens here.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: The pitching setup might actually not be horrible. Obviously, I
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: don't think Scooble's going to be that bad, but yeah,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I still think the better way to play
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: it is to play the situation in that one, because
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: to me, it doesn't seem, I mean, it looks like
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: on the surface there's a huge matchup edge there, but
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: The fact the price is so high and given what
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: the situation is, yeah, I think Detroit run line might
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: make sense there. All right, Miami and Washington. Washington played yesterday,
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: and they split the series with the Rockies. They're staying
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: at home, and the Marlins have a rest advantage here.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Marlins did not play yesterday. They're starting a road trip here,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: and you know I talk about that. When a team
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: starts a road trip, they usually are focused. So it's
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: a better spot for Miami here. However, Washington just got
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: swept in Miami before that Rocky series. So Washington might
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: show up for this because it's a little bit of
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: quick revenge or what have you here. Although Miami might
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: have more motivation because they're still kind of fighting for
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: a playoff spot and Washington isn't. So there might be
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: more motivation for Miami for that reason. But again, because
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Washington just got swept by them, that might motivate them
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: a little bit. However, if you look at the starting pitching,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: it's pretty obvious Miami has the better starting pitcher here,
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: and that's a major part of the reason why Miami's
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: favored like this on the road and maybe favored too heavily.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: But they got the rest advantage here, which is probably
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: also factoring in. Washington, not only is their bullpen not good,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: but they've used a lot of guys over the last
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: couple days. They used four guys yesterday. This is a
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: used bullpen right now, so they definitely are at a
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: bullpen disadvantage here. Washington 26th in bullpen. Miami 6th, although
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're that good, but still there is
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: a pretty big bullpen edge for Miami here. Miami offensively
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: is 11th, and Washington is 3rd. So Washington's a little
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: bit better in that department. Miami's going with Uri Perez here,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: who is one of their better pitchers. 3.17 ERA, 1.11 whip.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: He's kind of similar home and away. His ERA is
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: worse on the road, 3.53 ERA. He's more walk-heavy on
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: the road, and that's the problem. His opponent batting average
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: is actually better on the road, but he's wild on
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: the road, so that's what's going on with him. He's
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: been too wild recently, though. He's striking out a pretty
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: good amount of guys here, and he's not allowing a
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: lot of runs. He's allowed one run over his last
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: three starts combined, and Miami's won all three of them,
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: but he's walking too many guys, and he's kind of
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: getting away with it because he's been really hard to hit.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: It's kind of the way that he pitches, although he's
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: actually gotten his walk number down this year. He's been
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: very hard to hit. His hit rate's low. His walk
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: rate is too high. His strikeout rate is pretty good.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: That is high. So strikeout walk ratio, it's actually the
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: lowest that it's been in his career. This year it's
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: below 3, which is not really that good. Strikeout per
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: 9 is good. It's approaching 10, which is similar to
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: what he's done throughout his career. His numbers against Washington
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: are kind of mediocre, though. 55 at-bats, 255 average, 826
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: OPS isn't that good. They've hit him fairly well. 10-5
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, so I don't really know if I
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: want to come in and back Perez at this price.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: But Jackson Kent is pitching for Washington. He's really young.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: He's a rookie. He's only made three starts so far,
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: but he has an 8.03 ERA and 2.11 whip. which
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: is very bad. 14-11 strikeout walk ratio. In addition to
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: 11 runs allowed and 15 hits allowed in 12 and
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: a third innings, all those runs earned. And Washington's lost
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: all three of his games. Obviously, that's not good. But
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: he's so young, he might start turning this around. But
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: he's had major command issues. He's been way too hittable.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: He does have strikeout stuff, so that's a good sign
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: that he can strike guys out. But I don't know
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: how good he really is, man. So I think Perez
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: does have the upper hand there So if you play Miami,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: you're getting the better pitcher, the better bullpen, the more
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: rested bullpen, and the rest advantage here, and a possible
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: motivational edge, except that Washington might have a little bit
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: of revenge on their mind here. But I would play
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Miami in this game if I was going to do it.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: It was close to making the cut for me. The
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: problem is it's at minus 150 as a road favorite.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, you basically have to turn that into a
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: minus one run line. If you do, at least they're
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: guaranteed to bat in all nine innings, but I don't know, man.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree. 75% of tickets, 87% of
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: the cash on Miami. That is the way it was.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: play it I would make a minus one run line
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: or whatever or just play the money line I guess
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: on Miami that is the way I would play it
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: if I was going to but Perez's matchup numbers aren't
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: quite good enough for me either so I don't really
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: want to do that oh and Kent by the way
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: he has actually faced Washington or excuse me he has
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: actually faced Miami I believe Yeah, his last start, he
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: actually faced Miami, and he didn't do that well. He
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: only went four and two-thirds innings, had three walks, gave
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: up three runs. So Miami is actually familiar with Kent,
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: so they just saw him. So I don't know which
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: way it's going to go, because sometimes when a pitcher
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: does bad, sometimes they actually pitch better the next time
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: because they make adjustments. But with a young pitcher like this,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: that was Miami's first time seeing him, and usually... That's
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: when the unfamiliarity is there, and usually the pitcher has
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: the edge. And if that didn't even go well, and
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: now Miami's familiar with what he throws, that could be
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: an extra negative, potentially, for Kent here. Although, even though
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: his numbers were really not good in that start, his
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: numbers on the board here against Miami's current lineup are
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: actually not bad, which is kind of crazy. 15 at-bats,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: 200 average, 667 OPS, 5-3 strikeout walk ratio, which is, again,
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: that seems insane given how bad his pitching line looked
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: in that game, although it was actually kind of his best,
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: best start so far out of the three bad starts,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: so I don't really want to do it, but yes,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: I would play Miami if I was going to play
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: that game, and as far as the total, I don't know,
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, It looks like the money's kind of indicating
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: on the under very slightly, under eight and a half.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really have a great feel for it,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if I'd want to do that. Typically,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to be on an under in a
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Washington game, and if I am, it's going to be
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: a first five type of thing. I mean, maybe you
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: could make some sort of argument for a first five under,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: but I'm not going to do that. I think the
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: play in that game is probably to just play Miami.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Next game will be a play for me. And we're
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: going to– nobody's going to like this, I don't think.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: We're going to take the Mets again. I've been taking
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: the Mets a decent amount, and I think it's turned
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: out okay. I mean, I think they're just an undervalued commodity.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: We're going to fade the Houston Astros here. Both these
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: teams played yesterday, but the Mets are staying at home,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: so the Mets have a little bit of a travel edge.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: The Mets just got blasted by Milwaukee. I mean, nobody
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: expected the Mets to beat Mizurowski yesterday. I did say
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: the over made some sense in that game, and it
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: did go over. Mizurowski had a good start. Mets were
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: able to put a couple on the board, and Milwaukee
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: put up a bunch. So it did go over. The
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Mets are staying at home now, coming off those losses.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: The Mets seem like they're still putting in effort. You
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? They've actually been playing better since
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: they realized they were out of it. So I think
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: the effort will be there. They get a chance to
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: maybe play spoiler here. Now, Houston does have motivation here, right?
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Like they're winning the AL West right now. They're probably
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: going to need to win this division to make the playoffs.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: But Houston's coming off a winning series against the Yankees.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: They just won against the Yankees yesterday. So, yeah, they're
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: staying in New York. So they're basically staying where they are, too.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: So there isn't really a travel edge here for either team.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: but it could be a letdown spot for Houston. That
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: was a huge series win, and I didn't think they
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: were going to win yesterday. They beat Garrett Cole yesterday,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: so big win for the Astros yesterday, man. Cole wasn't
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: even really that bad, but the Yankees offense really struggled
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: in that game yesterday, so it could be a letdown
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: for Houston here. Houston, the pressure's going to be on them, man,
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: to keep winning, even though, yes, it is motivation, and
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: a lot of times I don't want to go against
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: a motivated team, but Houston's favored on the road, and
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: everybody knows Houston needs to win this game, and I
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: think it's a letdown spot for them, and I think
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: we're actually getting the starting pitching edge here, even though
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: I kind of like both of these starting pitchers, but
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: I actually prefer Scott in this game, and I've backed
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: him multiple times this year. The Mets only used two
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They have the better bullpen,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: so I'm going to just leave them in. Houston used
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: three guys out of their bullpen yesterday, and I believe
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: Hayter is their closer, and they used him yesterday. So
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with backing the Mets' full game here. Mets
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: are number nine in bullpen, Houston 13. The Mets do
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen ERA by almost half a run,
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: so I'll leave their bullpen in. Houston does have the
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: better offense. There's no question about that. They're number nine,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: tied with the Red Sox. The Mets are number 26. So, yes,
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: Houston does have a better offense, but the Mets have
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: come around a little bit on the offensive side since
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: the All-Star break, and I think good pitching can defeat
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: good hitting. And we're actually going to fade Hunter Brown here,
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: even though I like Brown. I think he's a talented pitcher,
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: but coming back from injury, he's had some major issues
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: with his control. His ERA is pretty good, 3.51, but
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: that's not what he's supposed to the last couple of years,
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: or he's been better than this. And his whip is
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: really kind of– I mean, it's not good at 1.33–
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit better on the road, a
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: three ERA on the road, but even so, he's having
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: a lot of wildness issues here, man. Even though he's
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: striking out a lot of guys, he's not going deep
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: into his outings here. Houston has lost his last four starts,
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: by the way. Houston's lost every one of his starts
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: this month, so they're not winning behind him, even though
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: a lot of it is that their offense isn't putting
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: up their end. But he's walking way too many guys here.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: A 21-13 strikeout walk ratio. That's not going to cut it.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: He's getting a little bit lucky that he's not allowing
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: more runs here. He's hard to hit. He's got a
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: low hit rate on the season, but his walk rate
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: is really high. And his strikeout rate is good. He's
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: a good strikeout pitcher. But his strikeout walk ratio is awful. 1.8.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: That's the worst that it's been in his entire career.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: Really bad. And his strikeouts per nine is one of
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: the lowest that he's had as well, even though it's
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: above nine, which is still good. But he's having some
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: issues here. And kind of the clincher for me on
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: fading him here was he's actually not good against the Mets.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: They have 59 at-bats against him, although 25 of them
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: are from Semien because he was in the division. Semien
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: was on Texas. Semien has absolutely destroyed Brown, though. And
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: these guys have a. 356 average, 879 OPS against him,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: although they do have 21 strikeouts and three walks. So
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: the strikeout-walk ratio is really good there. But Brown's overall
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: numbers here are not very good. against the Mets. I
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: think he's vulnerable here. And some of those numbers were
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: back when he was a better pitcher. We're going to
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: back Christian Scott here instead, man. Scott, 3.73 ERA, although
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: I know his whip is similar to Brown's, 1.32, which
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: I don't love. But Scott has a better home ERA, 3.38,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: although his opponent batting average is a little bit worse
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: at home. He wasn't good last time out against the
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: White Sox. But he was pitching reasonably well leading into that,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: although he had kind of a bad start against Atlanta
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: in here too. But he's kind of been the opposite
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: of Brown this month where the Mets have won all
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: four of Scott's starts this month. So Houston's 0-4 in
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Brown's last four starts. The Mets are 4-0 in Scott's
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: last four starts. So I'm hoping that trend continues here.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: And Scott's had the way better ratio here this month,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: 26-9 in 20 innings, although he's been a little bit
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: too hittable here But his command has been better than
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: Brown's here. Scott's got a fairly low hit rate here.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: He has a lower walk rate than Brown does, even
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: if it's not excellent. And his strikeout rate is actually
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: higher than Brown's. Scott's got the better strikeout walk ratio.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: It's close to three, which is much more reasonable. And 11.2
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: strikeouts per nine is really nice. Scott has pitched against
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: Houston very briefly. They have three hitters who have faced him.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: They only have one hit. Paredes has a single against them.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: They're one for seven off him. Only one strikeout, one walk.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: But still, they have not done much against Scott. So
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: I say we back the Mets here, man. I think
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: the situational edge is there for the Mets. The money
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: seems to agree with this. Houston, I think, is just
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: too heavily priced here in a spot like this on
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: the road, minus 120-something. Everybody knows Houston needs to win,
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: and I think that needs to win is kind of
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: built into the price a little bit. 74% of tickets,
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: 56% of the cash on Houston. So the money seems
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: to agree. And the money is heavily backing the under
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: here as well. And the total is basically 7.5%. So
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: another situation where I kind of like an underdog for
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: that reason. You know what I mean? If the total
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: is low and the money is expecting the under to
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: come in, that means the underdog definitely has a good
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: chance to hang around. So it means there's probably some
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: value there. And I think you could probably argue the
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: Mets have the better pitching overall. throughout this game. I
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: just made that argument. You're getting that team as an underdog,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: plus the spot is a little bit better for them.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: Let's do it. Let's take the Mets on the money line.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: You can get it around plus 110 there. Next game
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: is Kansas City-Cleveland. Kansas City bounced back and won yesterday
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: after they lost their win streak. They won 13-2 yesterday
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: against the Pretty bad Toronto Blue Jays. I told you
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: I did not want to fade Kansas City, even though
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: they lost that win streak, and it could have been
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: a momentum stopper. Noah Cameron had good road numbers. He
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: looked like he was the better pitcher in that game,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: and he was. I think I leaned Kansas City first
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: five in that game, and I'm assuming that was correct.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is now coming into Cleveland. Kansas City might
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: get up for this because it's a divisional series. They
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: get a chance to play spoiler here against a team
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: that's fighting for the playoffs. But, of course, Cleveland... is
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: fighting for the playoffs, and they have a rest edge here.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Cleveland did not play yesterday. So Cleveland has a couple
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: of advantages here. Although the fact that Cleveland needs to
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: win might be factored into the line here, you know
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: what I mean, which is going to be part of
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: the reason why they're favored. Although they should be favored anyway.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: They're the better team at home. But Cleveland's kind of
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: in a bad spot because they're returning home from a
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: road trip where they went 6-0 on the road trip.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: But it was against Colorado and Anaheim. And I told
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: you how weak Cleveland's opponents were in this upcoming run.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: They're playing Colorado, Anaheim, and now Kansas City. So I
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: thought that would help Cleveland's cause, and it is. They're
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: hanging around here in the division, not far off behind
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: Chicago here. So Cleveland does need to keep winning, but
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: a return home spot's not good, man. You know, I
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: talk about that. Traveling across multiple time zones, too. Even
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: though going east is easier, because on your biological clock,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: it's like, oh, we're playing kind of an afternoon game,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: which is still fine. But still, it's a distracted spot.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Cleveland might not totally show up for a series against
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: the Royals, because even though they've been hot recently, they're
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: still the last place Royals. So kind of hard to
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: get up for a team like that. But Cleveland does
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: have the rest advantage here, like I said, and the
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: motivational edge. Kansas City does not have the better bullpen.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: They used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Cleveland
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: definitely has a bullpen edge plus the rest there. Cleveland's
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: 15th in bullpen. Kansas City is dead last. However, as
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: I always say, they're still better than the A's, but
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: they're the second worst bullpen. uh, offensively Kansas city is
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: the better team. They've moved up to 16th tie with
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: Baltimore Detroit because of that outburst they had in that series. Um,
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is 27th. They're definitely a weak offense, but the
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: offense might be a kind of hard to come by
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: in this game. I looked at the starting pitching matchup
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: and my thought was that this game looks like an
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: under Michael Walker's pitching for Kansas city. Um, He's had
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: a good career, man. He's been a pretty effective pitcher,
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: even though he flies under the radar because he's not
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: a strikeout guy, so a lot of times he's good
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: to bet on. He's got a 3.49 ERA this year, 1.13 whip.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: Those are good numbers. He's not really as good on
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: the road, though. 3.89 road ERA, which is still not bad,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: but he is better at home. He's in good form
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: right now for the most part. He's not striking out
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys, but he's not putting a lot
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: of guys on base at all. He's going reasonably deep
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: in some of these outings, not allowing that many runs.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good since the All-Star break. He hasn't
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: had a bad start, really. So maybe I guess this
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: one against the A's was slightly bad, but not really
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: that bad. He's got a low hit rate here. His
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: walk rate is kind of mediocre. He does allow too
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: many home runs in here, though. And he doesn't really
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: strike guys out, so that means his strikeout walk ratio
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: is not really going to be that good. It is three, actually.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: I guess I can't do the math anymore. Three is
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: not that bad. So he is actually not walking that
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: many guys. I get thrown off by seeing that walk
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: number compared to the number of innings. I'm like, oh,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, wait. And then, yeah, his strikeout per
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: nine is basically, it's kind of around where it's been
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: throughout his career. It's a little bit lower than that,
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: but it's seven, which is, Similar to what he usually does.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: So not a huge strikeout guy, but he's effective anyway.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: Against Cleveland, very weak offense in Cleveland. Waka has had
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: the upper hand against them in 107 career at-bats. 243 average,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: 638 OPS. 17-9 strikeout walk ratio is not good, but
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: the rest of those numbers are good. So I think
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: Waka could have a good start here. Tanner Bybee is
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: on the other side for Cleveland. He's had a pretty
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: good season, although his record doesn't look good because he
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: gets no run support this year, but his numbers are good. 3.97 ERA, 1.14 whip.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: He's very similar home and away. It doesn't really matter.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: He's slightly better at home, though. Good last couple of
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: starts from him. He's been all right recently. Had a
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: couple of kind of iffy starts before that, but he
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: still had really good command. This month, 23-6 strikeout walk
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: ratio this month kind of indicates that his ERA should
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: be a little bit better than it is this month
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: at 4.88. He's not really putting guys on base. He
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that hittable either. So I think that's a
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: little bit misleading what that ERA looks like. He's only
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: allowed more than 300 runs once since the very beginning
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: of July. And he's only allowed it twice going all
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: the way back until late May. So he's pitching pretty
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: well here. He's not allowing a lot of runs. Hit
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty low. Walk rate isn't too bad either.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate is all right. So his strikeout walk rate
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: is actually kind of low, but his strikeout walk ratio
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: is all right. It's close to three. His strikeout per
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: nine has gone down a bit this year. It's around seven,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: where it was eight last year. But maybe he's just
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: pitching a little bit differently, trying to figure out how
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: to pitch a little bit more effectively, although he's been
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: pretty similar to what he was last year, though. Let
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: me see. Against the Royals... Bybee has kind of been
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: mediocre against them in 100 at-bats, 250 average, 768 OPS.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: It's not bad. It's very average. 22 strikeouts, 10 walks
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: isn't really that good. I don't know, man. I mean,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: I'm still kind of thinking the under might make more
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: sense than anything else in this game. The under is
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: getting a lot of money. The total's pretty low. It's 7.5
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: juice to the under, and it dropped from an 8
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: juice to the under, so there is some real money
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under in this game, and I
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: I do agree with it. 55% of tickets on the over,
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: 87% of the cash on the under. I definitely consider
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: this one, but I don't love Bybee's numbers there. I
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: don't know, something felt a little bit off about this,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: but the offenses might help you out with getting this
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: under here. I mean, Kansas City, their offense is bad
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: on the road. Cleveland is just not good in general offensively,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: but the problem is if you go full game on this,
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: you have to deal with the Kansas City bullpen, which
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't really want to do. So I think if
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: I was going to play this game at all, I
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: think I would have to make it a first five under.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: And if you're doing that, you're going to be looking
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: at a three and a half, most likely. I just
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: don't love it enough, so it's not going to make
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: my card, but I think that's the best way to
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: play this game is first five under. The money's coming
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: in on Cleveland. 71% of tickets, 87% of the cash
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: on them at minus 130 or so. I actually disagree
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: with that. Even though Cleveland does have a rest advantage here.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: They're returning home from the road. I think the pressure
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: is kind of on them. I think they might overlook
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Kansas City a little. Kansas City's playing a bit better
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: right now. I know they played yesterday, but I think
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Kansas City first five might be worth a look here.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: He's got the better matchup numbers over Vibey here. So
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: I think maybe you could do that and get Kansas
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: City as an underdog in the first five. It'll definitely
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: be like a plus money situation on that, I would say,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: on the money line there. So I think that might
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: be a potential way to look at that, although I
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: prefer looking at some sort of under in that game.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: San Diego and Tampa Bay, these teams both were off yesterday.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is returning home from a road trip, though.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: They went to Baltimore and Detroit, and you know I
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: talk about it, when a team returns home from the road,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: I'll say it again, it can be a distraction. Tampa
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Bay has got a decent lead in the AL East here,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: and perhaps the Red Sox and Yankees will beat each
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: other up. So I think the best scenario for Tampa
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: is that the Yankees and Red Sox split that series 2-2.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. But Tampa Bay, it's possible they
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: overlook San Diego. Maybe not, because San Diego's been playing
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: pretty well. San Diego, I think, needs the game a
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: little bit more, because they're in the middle of this
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: wild card race in the NL, and they're really close
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: with Arizona still. All those types of things. San Diego's
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip. Although, yes, they do have to
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: travel cross-country here. But with a day off and going east,
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: it's easier than going west, like I said. Because if
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: your biological clock isn't adjusted, it's just like you're playing
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: an afternoon game. So that's a lot easier than playing
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: a late, late game. So San Diego might be in
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: okay shape here. However, I do think Tampa Bay has
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: the better of the starting pitching matchup here. The bullpens,
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is ranked higher at number three, but they
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: are not the better bullpen. San Diego's ranked seven. San
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: Diego's ERA is more than half a run better. San
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: Diego's got the better bullpen here, so I am disagreeing
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: with this whip arrangement here. Tampa Bay does have the
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're number seven, tied with the White Sox.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: San Diego, like I said, they've been better since the
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: All-Star break, but overall they're still 23rd, although better form recently.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: Casey Mize is pitching for San Diego. They picked him
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: up at the trade deadline. Probably a decent move for
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: them because they really needed some starting pitching. It looks
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: like they might be getting Joe Musgrove back at some point.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I forgot about him, but he might come back. San
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Diego definitely needs him back. They need some of these
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers. Mize has had a decent season, mostly with Detroit. 3.44 ERA, 1.09 whip.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: He's been worse on the road, though. 3.93 road ERA.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: Still not bad, though. But He's only made four starts
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: with San Diego, and two of them were bad. Had
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: a bad road start against Arizona. Then he settled down
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: and had two good starts, and one of those we
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: won on an under, I think, or maybe both of
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: them we did. I forget. Against Milwaukee and Cleveland, one
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: good offense, one bad one. But then he had a
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: bad start last time out against Minnesota. Now, Minnesota is
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: familiar with him because he was in their division, but
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: I thought he had good numbers against them, so maybe
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: not a good sign. That was not a good start
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: for Mize, and that was at home. But he is
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: a pretty good pitcher, so maybe he bounces back again.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: But there are some other causes for alarm here. Since
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: joining San Diego, his strikeout walk ratio is really bad,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: 10 to 7. That's awful. And 21 hits a lot
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: in 18 innings. So there's something not quite right here.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: even though he's had a decent season and i think
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: he's pretty good but i don't know what's going on
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: here man um now his numbers against tampa bay uh
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: tampa bay has had the upper hand against him he
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: has 29 at bats against them most of their batters
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: have faced him Tampa Bay has a 4-14 average against
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: them in 12-10 OPS, 5-2 strikeout walk ratio, a bunch
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: of extra base hits in here. Mize has not done
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: well against Tampa, man, so Mize is in the worst
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: of his home road splits here and has a bad matchup,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: and he's not in good form based on his last start,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: so I don't like Mize in this spot here. Shane
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: McClanahan is pitching for Tampa Bay. He's had a good season.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: He's Coming back from injury here, man. He came back
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: from injury this season, I'm pretty sure, but I think
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: he got injured again, and now he's trying to come
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: back from that. But he's had a good season, 3.1 ERA, 1.12 whip.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: He's also had a good career. He's in the better
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: of his home road splits. He's good at home, 2.32
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: home ERA. He bounced back. He had a bad start
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: two starts ago against Baltimore. Had to face Baltimore again.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: He was good in that start. And we lost on
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay in that game, even though McClanahan had five
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: shutout innings in that one. We would have won if
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: we went first five. Tampa Bay's bullpen blew it. I'm
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: kind of pissed. Maybe I should have just gone first
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: five on it because I thought the bullpens were a
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: little bit of a mystery, a little bit of a
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: wash there. But Tampa was winning two nothing in the
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: ninth inning, dude, and they fucking lost that game. I
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: think it was maybe the eighth or the ninth, whatever
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: it was. I'm not happy, but McClanahan was good in
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: that start. So he looks like maybe he's coming back
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: into form here. McClanahan against San Diego in his career,
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: 61 at-bats, 197 average allowed, 553 OPS. Only seven of
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: their hitters have faced him, but most of the key
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: guys in their lineup have faced him, and they haven't
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: done well against him. 19 strikeouts, five walks. McClanahan has
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: the better matchup and the better home road splits here,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: so I think I have to lean Tampa Bay in.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: in this one, even though they're returning home from the road,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: and I don't really like that. Yeah, I mean, maybe
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay first five, I guess, because I do think
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: San Diego has the better bullpen here. Tampa Bay is
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: getting the money. 76% of tickets, 90% of the cash
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: on them. They're about minus 130. If you play them
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: in the first five, you might have to pay a
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: little bit more for it, though. You might be looking
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: at a minus 140-something. If it gets higher than that,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: then I would say you might have to actually lay
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: a half run there. with Tampa in the first five.
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: I really don't want to do it anyway because I'm
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: almost never going to play a team in a return
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: home spot. But yeah, I think Tampa first five is
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: probably the best way to play this game. Just focus
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: on the matchup. Although I do worry about the situation
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: and there is significant money coming in on the under
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: in this game as well. The total is at seven
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: and a half. So the odds makers think it's low
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: scoring as well. And I see the argument for it, obviously.
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, generally both these pitchers are good. Generally you
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: have two good bullpens here. You have rest, which helps
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: the under. The return home spot can help the under
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: as well because all of that can kind of cool
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: off the hitting. The bullpen's arrested. I don't disagree with
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: the under, but Mize does worry me quite a bit there.
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: So that game's just a stay away from me, man.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: All right. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: All right, we have... Red Sox-Yankees, the big series of
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: the weekend, and the Red Sox look like they're basically
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: forfeiting this fucking game tonight. This is on Apple TV.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are behind the Yankees in the standings.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox have pulled within two games of
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. I think they were within one and a
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: half games a couple days ago. So the Red Sox
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: need to win some games in the series, and I
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: think they're going to be off to a bad start here,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: even though the Red Sox have a rest advantage here.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: Yankees played yesterday, but they're staying at home. The Red
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Sox are coming in from Miami, but the Red Sox
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: were off yesterday. So yes, the Red Sox do have
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: a rest advantage. Both bullpens are good. The Yankees used
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: two guys, but the Yankees did lose Cruz, who's one
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: of their better relief pitchers. So he's not there right now,
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: but the Red Sox have an injured bullpen as well.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Whitlock's coming back here. Slayton is
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: definitely not coming back anytime soon, I don't think. So
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox have some guys that are missing from
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: their bullpen here. Red Sox are still the number one bullpen,
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: and the Yankees are the number two bullpen. So we
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: have a bullpen duel going on this weekend between the
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: top two bullpens in baseball, but they're both injured. What
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: else was I about to say? The Red Sox seem
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: like they might be getting Roman Anthony back, which... He's
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: been hitting well in his rehab in AAA, and he's
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: a good bat, dude. Yeah, I mean, he's supposed to
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: be one of the future guys here, and he looked
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: good when he played last year. He looked really good
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: in the World Baseball Classic as well, so he seems
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: like he may be coming back in this series because
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: he's been playing in AAA, and he played yesterday in
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: AAA as well. So I think Anthony will make an
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: appearance in the series. The question is going to be,
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: who do the Red Sox take out of their roster? And,
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: of course, the... All the stupid haters are going to
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: say the Red Sox have to take Durant out of there,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: like get rid of Durant. There's no way they're going
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: to do that. Durant's one of their best. Durant's like
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: one of the only guys on the team that has
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: a chance at a 20-20, like 20 home run, 20
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: stolen base season. He's a very aggressive base runner, and
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: he can still hit for power, even though his batting
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: average is bad this year. They're not going to get
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: rid of Durant. Durant just won the last game with
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: a grand slam, or two games ago, I mean, with
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: a grand slam in the 11th inning. Yeah, fuck all
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: the haters, man. But we'll see what the Red Sox do.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: And the Red Sox seem like they're going to activate
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: Trevor Story at some point, too, which I really don't
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: like that. Story's been awful for them, dude. Like, he
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: hasn't been able to hit it at all. And I
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: guess if they bring him back, they're going to get
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: rid of Monasterio, which I guess I'm fine. Monasterio kind
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: of sucks, dude. His fielding has been bad recently. So anyway,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: we'll see. I'm too much of a Red Sox homer here,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: so I'm going into the details. But anyway, this game,
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: even though the Red Sox have the rest advantage here,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: I do not think the Red Sox set up well here.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: It's a starting pitching mismatch that's heavily in favor of
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: the Yankees here. The Red Sox have had the better hitting, though,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: which is interesting. They've been one of the best offenses
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: since the All-Star break. They're number nine tied with Houston
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: on the season. The Yankees are 15th. The Yankees have
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: struggled recently, as we know, although they have had some
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: good offensive games recently. But here's my problem. The Red
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: Sox still are... Rolling Patrick Sandoval out there. Like, do
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: they seriously not have any better option? Like, who's on
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: the AAA roster? You could literally probably just throw a
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: dart at the AAA roster, and whoever you bring up
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: is going to be better than this guy. Sandoval fucking blows, dude. 4.54 ERA.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's not even that good at this point,
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: but his whip is abysmal. 1.76. He's not had a
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: good career. He sucks. He's bad on the road. 5.59
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: road ERA. His opponent batting average is above. 300. Across
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: this season, although he hasn't pitched that much, he's made
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: eight starts, and the Red Sox have won six of them.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: I know. Sandoval's getting really lucky, dude, the fact that
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: he's not allowing that many runs. He got obliterated by
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh a couple starts ago. He's not good, dude, all right? Like,
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: I don't think there's anything else to say about this.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: He's got a really high hit rate. He's way too hittable.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: His walk rate isn't even really very good. His strikeout
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: rate is actually pretty good, so I'll give him that,
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: but that's not good enough. His strikeout walk ratio is
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: in the twos. Not good, really. Low twos. Strikeout per
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: nine is good. So that's the only thing good about
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: him is he has strikeout potential. His numbers against the
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: Yankees are actually good. In 40 at-bats, 200 average, 645 OPS.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: I looked at this earlier and I just had to laugh.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: It's seven batters that the Yankees have that have faced him.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: Seven strikeouts, one walk. Do what you want with that info, man.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: I do not trust Sandoval, even though he does have
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers here. There's no way I could trust him.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: And the Yankees are going with Cam Schlittler, who is
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: still the front runner, I think, for the Cy Young
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: in the AL, even though he's been a little bit
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: worse recently. 2.16 ERA,. 96 whip on the season. He's
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: up there in innings, though, 158 now. That's what you
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: have to worry about with a young pitcher like him
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: is Is he starting to fall off a little bit? Well,
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: he does still have a really good strikeout walk ratio
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: above five on the season, which is crazy. 11 strikeouts
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: per nine. That is very, very good, obviously. Schlittler is
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: actually not as good at home though. 3.71 home ERA.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: He has significant splits where he's actually, he's basically, he's
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: completely elite on the road and he's not as good
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: at home. And yes, the Yankees ballpark is hitter friendly.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: He's still striking out a ton of guys. So it
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: looks like he's not really falling off yet, but he's,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: He's had too many walks recently. He's had 11 walks
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: in his last 21 and a third innings, even though
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: he has 28 strikeouts to go along with it. So
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: tons of strikeouts, but his wildness is kind of becoming
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: an issue here. And against Toronto twice in a row,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: maybe that's not a great sign. He does have a
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: really low hit rate still. I mean, low walk rate,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: really high strikeout rate, as I already pointed out. All
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: that is good. And he's got good numbers against the
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Red Sox as well. And 62 at-bats, 194 average allowed.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: 521 OPS, 19 strikeouts, 3 walks. So yeah, do I
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: think the Red Sox are going to win this game? No,
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: I do not. Even though it looks like the money
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: is actually on the Red Sox. 56% of tickets, 92%
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. The price plummeted on the
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: Yankees from minus 170. down into the minus 150s range.
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: So it looks like there's real money on the Red Sox.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to do it. I mean, the Yankees
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: clearly have the pitching edge here. I don't know what
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: else to say about this. Like, Schlittler is way better
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: than Sandoval. It's not even close. Situationally, I will agree. Situationally,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox have an edge here, and it's supposed
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: to be a low-scoring game. The total's at seven. The
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: money is slightly backing the over, but the over's very public.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: You're usually going to see overs being public in, like,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: a highly public series, like Red Sox-Yankees, where everybody sees
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: these teams as good teams, good offenses, whatever. Public is
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: mostly going to play overs in these games, so you
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: might find some value on unders here. I wouldn't disagree
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: with the under. The total's low. It's at seven. It's
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: low for a reason. I don't really want to do
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: it in a Sandoval game because I think it's dangerous,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: plus Schlittler not quite as good at home and maybe
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: fading a little bit here as his innings go up.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: But you saw the matchup numbers, and both bullpens are good,
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: so I think there are more indicators towards an under
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: than an over, and you might see the teams kind
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: of play a little bit tight in the series you
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: know what I mean Yankees by the way do also
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: have revenge on mind here because they just got swept
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: in a four game series in Boston not that long
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: ago if you remember that during that Red Sox insane
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: hot streak the Red Sox had a four game sweep
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: over the Yankees in that series Do I think the
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are going to do that again here? No,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: obviously not. I don't think they're going to win this
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: game tonight. I think they're going to be starting the
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: series off in a negative fashion already. Although the money
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: seems to not totally agree with me, so we'll see. But, yeah,
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, I would probably lean towards the Yankees, to
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: be honest, on like a minus one run line. And
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I would agree with the under, but I just don't
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: want to do it, man. All right, Colorado and Atlanta. Gary,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: wouldn't it just be baseball if Atlanta sweeps the Dodgers
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: and then they lose to the Rockies? That would be baseball.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's a huge favorite here, though, but they had a
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: huge series sweep of the Dodgers. Both teams played yesterday,
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: and Atlanta is staying at home, but this could be
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: a letdown for Atlanta, man. I mean, they have a
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: five-game lead in the NL East right now. They could
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: maybe flip cruise control on here, you know what I mean?
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: It could be a bit of a letdown spot after
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: four big wins in a row for Atlanta. Do you
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: really think they're going to pay that much attention to
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: the Rockies? The Rockies are coming in from Washington, so
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: their travel isn't too bad here. They lost yesterday 7-1.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: They might get up for a game against Atlanta here.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: And Atlanta does not have one of their... It's not
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: Chris Sale on the mound today. Let's just put it
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: that way. Atlanta does have the better bullpen. There's no
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: question about that. And they used nobody because Chris Sale
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: had a complete game yesterday. So the Atlanta bullpen is
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: good and rested here. colorado's bullpen is totally unbackable and
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: they used three guys yesterday so yes i would not
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: back colorado's bullpen uh colorado number 27 in bullpen and
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: atlanta's number four which i think is about right i
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: mean i think they're they're like a top five bullpen
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: like i said the top five bullpens i think are
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: absolutely red sox yankees brewers braves padres and then this
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: gap and then everybody else um Hitting-wise, Colorado has the
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: upper hand there. They're number four hitting, although I don't
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: think they're as good on the road, but the Braves
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: are actually not quite as good at home hitting. They're
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: number 13 overall in offense. Tomoyuki Sugano pitching for the Rockies.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: The advanced analytics guys are starting to pat themselves on
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: the back because they've pegged this guy as a major
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: regression candidate, and he's been pretty bad in his last
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: two starts. 4.96 ERA on the season, 1.32 whip. Not great,
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: but a lot better than people thought he would do,
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: and he's been one of Colorado's least bad pitchers. He's
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: a little bit better on the road, 4.91 road ERA.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: He did actually have better home numbers for a while,
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: but it makes no sense because Coors Field is bad,
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: and he's a fly ball pitcher, so you think he
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be as good there. Last two starts weren't good.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: You can give him a pass for a bad start
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers. I mean... We know how good their
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: offense is. Probably gets less of a pass for pitching
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: poorly against Cleveland in the next start. We'll see what
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: he can do, man. But he's still really not walking, guys.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: But he's been too hittable. So that's kind of the
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: way that he pitches. He pitches to contact. He's definitely
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: too hittable. He allows too many home runs. But some
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: of that is the course field effect, though. And he's
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: not in course field here. He doesn't walk many guys.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: And he does not strike out many guys either. So
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio... Whoops. It's still not very good.
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: It's two and a half. His strikeout per nine is
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: actually quite bad at 5.3, so you can see why
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: the analytics guys really don't like him. But I don't
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: hate him as much as they do because I look
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: at how many guys is he putting on base, whatever,
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: because he doesn't walk many guys. I still... kind of
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: put him more in somewhat of a mediocre category, where
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: they put him in a bad category. Sugano against the Braves,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: they really haven't seen much of him. They only have
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: two hitters who have faced him, Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: Thomas has the only hit, which is a single. They're
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: one for eight off him with a strikeout, so Sugano
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: has possibly a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge here,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: even though it's not like he throws stuff that's unfamiliar
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: to anybody, really. But maybe he pitches okay here, because Atlanta...
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: hasn't really seen him, and the guys that have haven't
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: really done anything against him. Grant Holmes is pitching for Atlanta. 3.64 ERA,
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: but his whip isn't really that good at 1.32. He's
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: not as good at home, even though last year he
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: was better at home. 4.48 home ERA. So he is
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: a bit fadable at home, and even though he's allowed
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: zero runs in three of his last four starts... I
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. I think I backed him, didn't I?
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: I think I backed him against the White Sox in
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: his last game. That was a spot play where the
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: spot was really good for Atlanta. Holmes has some issues here, though, man.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: Even though his ERA is really good this month in
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: the twos, but a 13-9 strikeout walk ratio in 21
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: and two-thirds innings, that's not good. He's just not striking
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: guys out here. I think that's a little bit of
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: a concerning number there. Numbers overall in the season, he...
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Isn't too hittable, so that's good, but he does walk
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: too many guys, and his strikeout rate is not very high.
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of a problem. His strikeout walk ratio
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: is actually quite bad. It's below 2. which is not good.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: And his strikeout per nine is in the seven. So
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: both of those numbers are the worst that he's had
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: in his career, which is not good. He's only in
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: his third season, though, although he's 30. So maybe that's
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: not a good sign either. His numbers against the Rockies, though,
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: he's been good against them in 36 at-bats,. 222 average,.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: 604 OPS, 16-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. I do... Kind of
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: lean Colorado here in the first five. I would never
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: deal with their bullpen, especially not in a scenario where
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's is rested and clearly the better one. Atlanta's minus
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: 220-something here, though, man, with Grant Holmes on the mound.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, Colorado getting no respect in the market. 77%
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 81% of the cash on Atlanta. I think
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: it could be a letdown spot for Atlanta. So I
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: could see the argument for taking Colorado on the run
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: line in the first five here, and maybe both pitchers
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: do okay enough Or maybe Sugano is okay enough that
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: you can get there with that one. First five, Colorado.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: I would slightly lean that way, and I would slightly
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: lean first five under. I mean, you saw the matchup
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: numbers there. I don't like either pitcher, really, but they
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: do have good matchup numbers. The total's at 8.5 for
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: the full game. Some books have a 9. Money is
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over in that game. 59% of
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under, 63% of the cash on the over. Yeah,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: I still think first five under may be worth considering here.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: I think you get the weak split for both offenses here.
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: And both pitchers may do okay in this matchup. Let's
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: just put it that way. But, you know, I mean,
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: the pitchers are kind of untrustworthy too. So if this
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: game went over, I still wouldn't really be shocked about it.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: That game I'm not going to play. I mean, that's
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: a difficult game to figure out. Seattle and Toronto on
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: Apple TV. Toronto played yesterday, and they got killed by
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: the Royals. They're staying at home. The Mariners had the
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: day off. The Mariners are traveling. I believe starting a
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: road trip, so the Mariners are coming in from the
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Pacific time zone, but they do have a rest advantage here,
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: so Seattle didn't play yesterday. Toronto did. Toronto used three
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers. They've seen some bullpen usage recently, man. So
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: Toronto normally, I would say, they are the better bullpen here.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: They're number 17. Seattle's number 20. I think it's a
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: little bit closer, given that Seattle's just rested coming into
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: this one, though. Both offenses have been bad. So this
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: could be a series where you want to look towards
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: some unders. Toronto 28th and Seattle 29th. Seattle's tied dead
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: last with Anaheim. an offense. So you're going to have
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: some pretty bad offense in this series generally and possibly
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: good pitching. And maybe you want to attack the under
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: in this game, man. But the problem is we don't
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: know who Seattle is pitching here. It's supposed to be
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: Emerson Hancock. They haven't decided yet. And I honestly don't
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: know because actually Cade Anderson would be next up in
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: the rotation. I'm pretty sure. And I don't know if
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: they're deciding to like kick Hancock out of the rotation,
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: like move him to the bullpen. So I actually don't know.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: what Seattle's going to do here. But I think I
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: might like the under in this game either way, but
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think I really want to put it on
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: my card, even though you're getting Toronto's best pitcher here,
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: so it might be the best situation to take a
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: shot on the under in the series with Seattle being rested,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: which can cool off their offense, rest their bullpen, cease
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: on the other side. I don't know, man. I don't
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: think I want to put it on my card but
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: if if Emerson Hancock is pitching he's had a decent
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: season he's not that much worse on the road and
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: he has pretty good numbers against Toronto so I'm not
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: going to go into it because he might not pitch
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: but I think he is backable as far as an
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: under is concerned. If it's Kane Anderson, Anderson's only made
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: one start so far in his major league career, and
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: he was tearing it up in double-A, and then Seattle
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: brought him up because they skipped triple-A in Seattle's org
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: because their triple-A stadium's hitter-friendly. I don't know why they
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: do that. I think they should battle-test their pitchers in triple-A,
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: but whatever. Anderson pitched okay when he pitched against the Cubs,
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: although I think he was crying in the dugout because he...
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: It looked like they were going to lose the game,
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: and he wasn't good enough to win, but Seattle pulled
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: the game out of their ass anyway and won the
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: game late when it came down to the bullpens. But
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: it might be Anderson here, but Anderson going from playing
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs, pitching against them, to pitching against Toronto,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: that should be a relief for Anderson, and Toronto will
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: have never faced him before, and Anderson's got good stuff,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: so that might be an advantage to Anderson too because
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: Toronto's never faced him before. So whether it's Hancock or Anderson,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: Maybe I do still, like this is close to being
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: a play for me, and then don't cease on the
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: other side. I mean, I don't think we have any
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: problems backing him as far as an under is concerned.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: He's got a 2.37 ERA, 1.06 whip, although he is
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: actually a little bit worse at home, 3.03 home ERA.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: He is walking too many guys, but he's striking out
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: a ton of guys at the same time. That's just
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: what he does, man. He's extremely hard to hit, but
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: he's wild. He's got an extremely low hit rate. His
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: walk rate isn't really that good, but his strikeout rate
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: is also very high. So that evens out to him
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: having a decent strikeout walk ratio anyway in the threes.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: You'd like him to not walk as many guys, though.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: And it does mean he throws too many pitches. Last
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: time out, he threw 111 pitches in 62 3rds. Second
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: straight start against the Yankees. And maybe that's a little
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: bit of a concern, just the pitch count for him
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: has been really high. But he had a complete game
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: shutout against the Red Sox not long ago and threw
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: 120 pitches. And he followed that up with another dominant
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: start against St. Louis right after that. So he's a veteran.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is just what he does. You probably
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: don't need to be too worried about it. He's also
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: got a really high strikeout per nine, obviously, at 13.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's like Mizurowski territory. Cease is definitely in
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: the mix for Cy Young this year. And Cease against Seattle,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: as you can probably guess, he's good against Seattle. They
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: have 82 at-bats against them. 195 average, 592 OPS, 28-9
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, which is actually a little bit better,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: I think, than what you... Well, actually, no. I mean,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: he usually gets a lot of strikeouts. Anyway, the total
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: in this game is at 7, so everybody's kind of
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: expecting a low-scoring game, or the oddsmakers are expecting a
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: low-scoring game here. Seattle's still undecided. 80% of tickets, 89%
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Seattle. Um... So the money looks
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: like it's slightly indicating towards the over, but I don't
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: put much weight into that. Money's also backing Toronto, but
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: they dropped from minus 191 all the way into the
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: minus 150 range. So I don't know if that's because
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: Seattle's making a pitching change that makes Seattle better in
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: this game. I'm not sure. 71% of tickets, 92% of
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: the cash on Toronto. So the money is somewhat backing Toronto,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: even though Seattle has the rest advantage. And by the way,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: Seattle has a motivational edge here too. Because Seattle needs
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: to win. They're trying to win their division still. So
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: Seattle's got the motivation here. You know what I mean?
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: Over Toronto, who's just kind of playing out the stretch here. Yeah,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: I like the under here, man. I think maybe what
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: I will say is... I guess I would say wait,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: and then see who the starting pitcher is going to be.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'll wind up adding it to my card and
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: put out a video on it and whatever. If I do,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: you should see it. It will wind up being an
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: under seven probably in this one. It's very, very close
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: to making the cut for me. All right. I want
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: to get through this because there's a lot of NFL preseason.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know how I can get through it fast enough.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: Texas and Milwaukee. Texas has a rest edge here. Milwaukee
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: played yesterday in the returning home, although they only went
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: to New York for one series to play the Mets.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: But it is still a return home spot for Milwaukee.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: And they're playing a team they probably don't care about.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee has nice padding in the NL Central. And they
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: just got gifted a little bit. The Braves gave them
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: a gift by sweeping the Dodgers. So Milwaukee, I think,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: is in that number one spot here right now. If
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken. Milwaukee could be a little bit of
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: a bad spot for them. Feeling a little bit good
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: about themselves. Returning home, although from a short road trip.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: Playing an AL team they're not going to pay attention to. Texas...
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: needs to win because they're trying to win their division here.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: Texas is going to be an underdog here because they're
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: not the better team, so there might be a little
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: bit of value maybe looking towards Texas here. Milwaukee does
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen, though, but they did use three
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They did not use
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: their closer, though. They pretty much just used long relief men,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: so Milwaukee's bullpen is still in pretty good shape here,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: and they're the better bullpen. They're number five, according to
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: the whip arrangement here. Texas is 19th. They've been a
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: disappointing bullpen this year. Milwaukee is also better offensively. They're
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: number five. Texas is number 21, tied with Arizona. I
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: think this could be an under, though. I don't think
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: I really want to come in and try to play
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: Texas because Logan Henderson is awesome, and I don't want
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: to fade him, even though this looks like a situational
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: spot that favors Texas with the rest edge. I believe
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: Texas is... traveling from actually it's a very easy travel
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: spot for Chicago or excuse me for Texas from Chicago
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: they just played the White Sox so they only have
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: to travel from Chicago to Milwaukee so yeah the travel
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: spot is way easier for Texas here and they're coming
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: off some really ugly results they just gave up double
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: digit runs in two games in a row to the
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: White Sox Texas the situation definitely favors Texas in this
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: game If you want them, you're going to have to
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: back Cody Bradford, and he's still a bit of a mystery.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: He came back from missing, I think, an entire season
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: with an injury. He looked good when he was pitching
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: earlier in his career. Injuries kind of derailed him. He's
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: got a 3.05 ERA and a very limited sample size
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: this year, although his whip is not that good, 1.4.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: He's not been as good on the road either with
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: a 4.09 road ERA, and he's been way too hittable.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: So there are some concerns with him here. He's only
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: made four starts, so the Texas lost three of them,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: and a couple of them were against Anaheim, who's not
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: a good offense. So the Bradford wasn't really that bad there,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: but he's not striking guys out. He's not really walking anybody,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: but he's been way too hittable, and his strikeout rate's
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: not really that good. So his strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: pretty good because he's not walking anybody, but it's lower
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: than it was in the past prior to him missing
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: the entire 2025 season. And his strikeout per nine is
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: way down from what it was in those seasons. But
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: maybe he just has to keep pitching and he'll get
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: his stuff back. You know what I mean? I'm not
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: going to say Bradford is done. And he's not allowing
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: many runs here at the very least. Bradford against Milwaukee,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: they basically haven't seen him. Only Gary Sanchez has ever
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: faced him. He's 0-1 with a strikeout. So Bradford is
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to them. He might pitch well here. And Logan Henderson,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: I would guess he's going to pitch well again because
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: that's just what he does. Henderson's been awesome. 2.6 ERA,.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: 89 whip. He was good last year, too. He's been
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: good at home, 2.25 home ERA. He's still in good
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: form right now, and he really hasn't thrown many innings,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: so he's going to be fresh if they want him
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: to pitch in the playoffs. He's only at, like, 70
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: innings here, so he's going to be fresh today. He's
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: not allowing many runs here at all. In fact, he
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: has not allowed more than 300 runs in any start
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: on the entire season. And he's only done that twice.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: And Milwaukee's won 10 of his last 11 starts. He's
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are all good. Strikeout per nine, strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, is over five, which is really good. Strikeout
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: per nine in the tens, also really good. His numbers
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: against Texas, there's no sample size, in fact. So Henderson,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: I think, does have an edge here against Texas' hitting.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: They're not even a good offense, really, but they're a
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: little bit better on the road. But Henderson's good, and
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: they haven't seen him before. So, yes, I expect Henderson
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: to pitch well here, too. I think the under is
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: the best way to play this game. Money doesn't quite
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: seem to agree. 63% of tickets, 69% of the cash
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: on the over totals. It's seven and a half. Uh,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: so the odds makers telling you again there, I have
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: a lot of under leans today, but I don't have
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: an actual under on my card. I think the one
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: that I like the best is still Seattle and Toronto though. Um,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: But I kind of want to see what Seattle actually
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: chooses to do. This one, I like this one too.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: And this one's a little bit more under the radar
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: because nobody really knows who these two pitchers are. Everybody
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: knows who Cease is. You know what I mean? Nobody
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: knows Bradford and Henderson. But 7.5 tells you the oddsmakers
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: think it'll be low scoring. Yeah, the under is, I think,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: the best way to play this game, and I think
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: both bullpens are decent enough. Well, Milwaukee's is definitely good,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: and Texas, with the rest that they have, I think
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: they should be okay to go in this game. So yes,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: under would be the way I would play this, under
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: seven and a half, and it's close to making the
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: cut for me. 86% of tickets, 91% of the cash
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: on Milwaukee. They're around minus 180. Like I said, I
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: think the spot is a little bit better for Texas
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: because they have a better travel spot and they have
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: rest here so Texas I would lean Texas first five
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: here Bradford is not the better pitcher over Henderson though
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: and that's kind of the problem like basically it's you'd
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: be playing the fact that Texas is a big underdog
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: in a decent spot and that Bradford can kind of
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: hang around with Henderson. And because I think it's going
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: to be low scoring. Yeah, I think he can. I
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: think both pitchers might do well here. So yeah, Texas
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: on the, like the, like half run run line in
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: the first five. I think that is the way to
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: look at the side in this game. I would play
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: the under if I was going to do anything in
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: this game, but yeah, I do lean to Texas run
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: line first five as well. All right. Five more games.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: I'm going to take a break. I'll be back. I
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: have one more play in here and I, I forget
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: what it is, actually. I do have one more play
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: in here, but I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: want to kill myself. We were on an 0-7 run
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: over the last two days after tonight. It was just
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start off
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: 1-5.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this. With the slump continuing. Two
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4. Have
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: not had a good season, man. With weekends. Slumped. Then
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: March 8th?
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right, next
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: is White Sox Twins. Both teams probably are motivated here.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, Minnesota may be more motivated. White Sox in
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: first place in the AL Central, though they kind of
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: need to win to continue being in that position. Minnesota
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: probably thinks they're not out of it yet probably and or.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: They probably are going to show up to try to, like,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: spoil the season for the White Sox at the very least.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: So I think both teams are going to show up here.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's in a difficult spot, though, because they're returning home
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, and they had a bad road trip.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: They lost five of six games, including losing to the
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: A's after getting swept by San Diego. Not good times
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: for Minnesota here, man. So it is a negative spot here,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: and the fact they're returning home could be a bit difficult.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: Both teams had the day off yesterday. White Sox are
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip. They were just at home, so
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are in the better spot. I always
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: prefer the team starting a road trip, which is usually
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: a focus spot, over the team returning home, which usually
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: comes with distractions. The White Sox have the better bullpen here.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: They're number 16. Minnesota is number 28. They're one of
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: the worst, so White Sox do have the edge there.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: White Sox have been the better offense, although both offenses
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: are fairly good. White Sox tied in seventh with Tampa Bay.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is 12th. White Sox have Luis Castillo pitching. I
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: don't know what we're going to get out of him here, man.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: He has not had a good season. The Mariners traded
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: him away. He's had a good career, so I don't
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: really know what's going on with him this season. But 5.19 ERA, 1.42 whip.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: Those are not good numbers. He's not good on the road. 5.51
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: road ERA. Hasn't really pitched well with the White Sox either.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: He's made four starts with the White Sox, and it
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: looked like he was turning it around because he had
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: one really good one against Cincinnati, but since then he's
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: been bad again. So three of his four starts here
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: with the White Sox have been bad. He's not doing well,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: although his strikeout walk ratio is actually good, 19-5 with
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: Chicago so far. But he's allowed too many hits, but
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: maybe he's getting a little bit unlucky. but he's definitely
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: been too hittable, and that's been the case over the season.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is way too high. He's really not
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: walking a lot of guys, and his strikeout rate is
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: somewhat okay, but the hits have been ridiculous. He's got
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: a decent strikeout walk ratio here on the season. It's
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: around three. It's not too bad. His strikeout per nine
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: is eight, which is lower than what he usually does,
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: but it's tolerable. I don't know. I don't know what
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: the deal is with him, man. His numbers against Minnesota...
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: pretty good in 123 at bats 30 to 9 strikeout
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: walk ratio 228 average 654 OPS Castillo does have a
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: good matchup here at the very least I don't know
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: if I want to trust him though he's in bad
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: form and he hasn't been good on the road so
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we could trust him Dean creamer
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: on the other side I don't think I really trust
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: him either even though his whip actually does indicate that
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: his era should be better 5.22 era but a 1.18
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: whip is actually pretty good And he's been good as
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: a home pitcher here, 3.81 home ERA, but a lot
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: of that was with Baltimore. He hasn't pitched that much
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: this season. Baltimore traded him away, and since he's been
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: on Minnesota, he's been fairly good. His walk number's been
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: a little bit high, but the rest of his numbers
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: have been pretty good. He's been hard to hit, although
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's lost three of his four starts. But he hasn't
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: done that badly. He's allowed more than two earned runs
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: only once. He's got... Pretty low hit rate here. His
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: walk rate's not too bad either. His strikeout rate is
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: right around one per inning, which is good. So yeah,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: he's got a strikeout per nine that's in the three,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: or strikeout walk ratio in the threes. That's not bad.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per nine is like eight, or in the eights,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: I guess. That's not, or close to nine, actually, like
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: I said. That's not bad either. His numbers against the
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: White Sox are actually good as well. 39 at bats,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: 205 average, 603 OPS average. eight to two strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: So I first looked at this and my thought was
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: kind of more of like an over thought. Cause I'm like,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I don't really like either of these pictures
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: right now. I, this could actually be like an under
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: in the first five. I mean, you have both teams
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: being rested here. Both pitchers actually have good matchup numbers,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. This game kind of confuses me.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: The money is definitely indicating on the over though. 56%
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the under 84% of the cash on
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: the over. The total's around nine, so it is that
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: way for a reason. Oddsmakers think it'll be a high-scoring game.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure, man. I mean, I think first
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: five under is in consideration in this game based on
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers. I certainly don't love it. I don't
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: really like either pitcher. I don't really trust either pitcher.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: If you're going to take the over, I would say
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: at least do it in the full game, though, because
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's bullpen will be your friend if you play the over,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: which is why I would avoid them if I was
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: going to play the under. The money's also heavily indicating
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: on Minnesota, even though they're in a return home spot.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: 54% of tickets on the White Sox, 93% of the
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: cash on Minnesota. Minnesota's around minus 120-something here. Now, the
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: line is kind of misleading, right? Like, why would Minnesota
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: be favored here? So the oddsmakers, they know what they're doing,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: and you know the public's going to look at this
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: and want to take the White Sox, because Minnesota's not
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: playing well, and the White Sox have the better record.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: So the public's going to play the White Sox here, but...
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. When it's a misleading line like this,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: I tend to think about it and be like, yeah,
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: what are the oddsmakers telling me here? They know the
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: public's going to come in on the White Sox here,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: and they're okay with that. So they seem to be
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: telling you that Minnesota should win this game. I don't
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: want to do it in a return home spot, but
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: Creamer has been the pitcher in better form. Minnesota's the
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: more desperate team here. So those things, I mean, I
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: guess do kind of indicate towards Minnesota here. I don't
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: think I have much else on it. And Kramer's ERA
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: is misleadingly high, at least I will say that. And
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: he's had a better season than Castillo, although he's pitched
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: less this season. Yeah, so I mean, I don't really
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: disagree necessarily with Minnesota. Like I agreed with Tampa, even
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: though they're in a return home spot. I guess I'll
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: agree with Minnesota first five as well. I would not
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: play them full game because their bullpen is definitely at
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: a disadvantage. But yeah, first five under possibly and first
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: five Minnesota, maybe. Although if you play Minnesota first five,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: you're going to be laying a little bit heavier of
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: a price probably. Next game is my last play. It's
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: a spot play, but it is also kind of a
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: matchup play. We're going to take the Pittsburgh Pirates. I
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: think this is kind of a cheap price actually to
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: get them at in this game against St. Louis. St. Louis,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, they might be motivated, I guess, because they're
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: playing a divisional game. opponent here but Pittsburgh is behind St.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: Louis so Pittsburgh might get up for this because again
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: divisional series but a lot of times the team is
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: lower in the standings will be the more motivated one
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: and I think Pittsburgh's the better team and the odds
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: makers are telling you that right so this is kind
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: of a misleading line even though I think kind of
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: the thought process from people I think the public does
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: tend to like Pittsburgh more than St. Louis because they
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: have the better offense but you can see here Pittsburgh's
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: has the worst record. So why is Pittsburgh favored on
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: the road? Well, I think that's because they have the
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: better pitcher on the mound. Now, St. Louis did just
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: end a losing streak, and a lot of times I
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: like to back teams in a spot like that. They
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: ended a five-game losing streak, beating Baltimore. They had yesterday off.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: Both teams had yesterday off, I'm pretty sure. Now.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: Normally, I would say, yeah, that's good. That means they're
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: going to have some new momentum here. But actually, this
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: really is mostly a matchup play for me. I don't
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: know why I said it was a spot play. Pittsburgh
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: is having to come in from the Pacific Coast, but
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: it is easier to travel east than west, like I said.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: And they just got shut out in their last game,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: so I think they're going to have a little bit
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: of increased motivation from that. Although, I will say, Pittsburgh's
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: offense has been struggling a recently so I will say
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: that but I think they got the better pitcher on
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: the mound here I don't exactly love the spot for
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: uh St. Louis here wait St. Louis played yesterday what
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: am I saying St. Louis played yesterday you're right it
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: is a spot play I was like wait why am
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: I doing this again yeah Pittsburgh has a rest advantage
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: that's why I'm doing it St. Louis played yesterday yes
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: that's a big part of this handicap action I don't
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: know who wound up starting for them or if they
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: went with a bullpen game But they actually beat Baltimore,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: like I said. But St. Louis played yesterday and Pittsburgh
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: did not. So we have a rest edge with Pittsburgh here.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: And I think Pittsburgh might have the better bullpen. Look
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: at this bullpen usage from St. Louis recently. It's not
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: good when you see all this red and orange and whatever, man.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: They used six bullpen arms yesterday and four the day
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: before that, and three guys pitched both days. That's not good. So, yeah,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: let's fade this bullpen here, man. So Pittsburgh has a
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: rested bullpen, and they're a lot better at bullpen anyway.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: They're ranked 22nd, but their ERA is significantly better than St. Louis.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: It was at 23rd. And with the rest edge on
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: top of that, I think we do get the bullpen
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: edge with Pittsburgh here. We get the better offense, even
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: though they've been struggling recently. Pittsburgh is still the number
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: six offense. St. Louis is 24, so they haven't been good. St.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: Louis at home, I think, is actually quite bad offensively.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: It's a more pitcher-friendly park. And we're also backing Jared
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: Jones here, and he's the more established pitcher. And I
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: think he's better than his 4.76 ERA suggests. His career
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: has been better than this, although I know he missed
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: all of last year with an injury, but he's pitched
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: a decent amount this year at this point. He has
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: a 1.25 whip, which is higher than I'd like, but
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: it's not that bad. His ERA is better on the road, 4.03
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: road ERA, although his opponent batting average is worse on
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: the road at 252. But this is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, man.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: And although I know Jones has kind of struggled recently,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: 19-11 strikeout walk ratio with 21 hits allowed, and his
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: team has lost his last four starts. I know that's
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: not good. He's not in very good form right now.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: He had one good start in there against the Red Sox.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: I think he's going to bounce back at some point, man. Yes.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: His team has lost, um, whatever this is eight of
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: his last nine. I get that. That's not a good sign,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: but he's got a low hit rate. It's Walker. It's
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: not really that high strikeout rate is high. So these
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: overall numbers are not bad. So I think he's going
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: to bounce back at some point here. Like he hasn't
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: thrown that many innings this year. It's strikeout walk ratios
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: at three, which is fine. Strikeout per nine is over 10.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: So I think he's a good pitcher, not in the
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: greatest form right now. I know, um, But I think
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: the matchup is going to help him here as well
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: against a pretty weak St. Louis offense. They only have
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: three hitters who have faced him, but they're 0 for
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: 6 off him with a strikeout and a walk. So
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: I think Jones has the upper hand in this matchup
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: here against Quinn Matthews, who is a young pitcher for St. Louis. Well,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: he's 25. He's not as young as I thought. He's
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: a very lanky dude at 6'5, 188. So he's tall
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: but thin. He has not pitched well so far. 6.43 ERA, 1.79 whip.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: You want to talk about form that's not that good?
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: He's allowed 18 hits in 14 innings so far across
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: three starts. His team has lost two of the three.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: He's only made it exactly five innings in both. So
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: that means St. Louis' bullpen is likely to have to
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: come into this game, and we're fading that aspect of
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: this too because their bullpen's massively unrested, and it's not good.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: He does have a decent strikeout rate at 13, but
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: seven walks on top of that, not good. And the
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: one time he didn't walk that many guys last time
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: out against Philly, Philly obliterated him and had 10 hits
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: and seven runs off him. in five innings. Matthews is
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: not pitching well, although yes, it is true that he's
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to Pittsburgh, so that sometimes I would say that's
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: an advantage to the pitcher because they're unfamiliar, but Matthews
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: has not been pitching well. He was unfamiliar to all
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: three teams that faced him so far, and they all
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: did somewhat well against him, except Cincinnati kind of didn't. Also, Toronto, Cincinnati, Philly,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: the best offense he faced so far was Philly, and
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: he got wrecked by them. Toronto and Cincinnati are not
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: good offenses. Philly, decent, but Pittsburgh's going to be the
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: best offense he's faced so far, even though they're not
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: in the greatest offensive form right now. I don't think
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: that's good. Matthews is going to have to step up
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: his game further. This will be his first home start
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: ever with St. Louis, though, his first home start of
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: his major league career. So I guess maybe there's some
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: excitement around that, but I still don't like it, man.
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: I like the Pirates in this one. I think Jones
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: is the better pitcher, the more established pitcher here. The
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: money seems to heavily agree with this. 55% of the
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: tickets are on St. Louis, 91% of the cash on Pittsburgh.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: So like I said, public doesn't really love Pittsburgh here.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: Like why are they a favorite on the road as
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: the worst team? Pittsburgh right around that pick'em price. So
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: that's what we're going to do here, man. And the
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: money is also backing the under pretty strongly. Under seven
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: and a half, where normally I don't love like playing
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: a favorite in a situation like this, but it's just
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: a pick'em price. So neither team is really going to
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: be at heavy plus money here so whatever um but
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: yes the total is low the money's coming in towards
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: the under i guess there's some argument for that you
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: have a lot of unfamiliarity with these two pitchers here
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: so maybe i could see an argument for that i
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: think if you play the under you should do it
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: first five though because i would not want to factor
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: in the bullpens but Part of my handicap here is
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: the rest edge that Pittsburgh has. We're factoring in the
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: bullpens into it because I think they have a big
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here against a very unrested St. Louis bullpen
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: that isn't the better one anyway. All right. Philadelphia and Anaheim.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: I looked at this and I was thinking, yeah, there
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: might be some value looking at Anaheim as a dog here, man,
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: because they definitely have the better pitcher on the mound here.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: But maybe I don't really want to do it. I mean,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not putting it on my card. Anaheim is staying
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: at home. They just got swept by Cleveland. I mean,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's just kind of playing out the stretch now. They're like,
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: are they going to get up for Philly? I don't know.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: Philly has more to play for because Philly is trying
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: to secure themselves a playoff spot here. They're already on
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: the West Coast. They just played the Mariners, and now
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: they're coming in. So both teams not having to switch
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: time zones here. I believe both teams are off yesterday. Yeah,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: so both teams are rested here. So same amount of rest.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: I don't love either bullpen here. Anaheim's bullpen is ranked 21st.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: Philly's is ranked 18th. They're similar. Philly's is the slightly
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: worse ERA, but they're similar bullpens. They're not great bullpens.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: Philly's 19th offensively. They're not as good on the road, though,
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: but they are the better offense over Anaheim, who's tied
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: in last with Seattle. Philly's got Andrew Painter on the mound, though, man,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: and he has not had a good season. Although he's young,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: he's a rookie, 6.04 ERA, 1.48 whip. Obviously, those are
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: not good numbers. He's got a better, or no, excuse me,
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: he's worse on the road, excuse me, 6.92 road ERA
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: with almost a 300 batting average on the road. That's
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: not good. However, Painter has been better recently. Like his
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: last five starts have all been good. So I think
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: they sent him to the minors and he was down
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: in the minors for over a month And since he's
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: come back, kind of like with Fott, since Painter's come back,
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: he's been a lot better. He's allowed more than two
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: earned runs only one time, and Philadelphia's won his last
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: three starts. So he's definitely pitching better. He's got a
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: 20-7 strikeout walk ratio this month, which is a lot
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: better than what he was doing. It's not excellent, but
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: it's not bad. He's coming off probably his best start
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: of his career against St. Louis. Last time out of
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: seven inning one run performance with eight strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: So he's actually in decent form right now. So I
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: don't know if I actually want to fade Painter here.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: And he's facing a really weak lineup that might be
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit unmotivated. Anaheim and Anaheim has not seen
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: him before. I don't know, man. It seems like Painter
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: changed some things, figured some things out when he was
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: back in the minors. I don't really want to fade
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: him here. I don't want to fade Reed Detmers either, though.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know I like Detmers. I think he's good.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: I think he flies under the radar because he's on
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: a bad team. 3.62 ERA, 1.06 whip. He's better at home. 3.49
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: home ERA with a 191 opponent batting average at home.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: He's only walked one guy over those 14 innings, so
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: he's definitely in good form right now. 27-6 strikeout walk
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: ratio this month, also very good. He's allowed one run
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: in his last three starts. Granted, Two of them were
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: against Texas, and one was in Texas, and one was
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: at home against Kansas City. So those were not difficult matchups.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: But Detmers is still a good pitcher. He's got a
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: low hit rate. He doesn't really walk that many guys.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: He strikes out a lot of guys. His strikeout walk
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: ratio is around 4, which is quite good. Strikeout per
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: 9 is in the 10s, which is also good. Definitely
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: a good pitcher, man. Numbers against Philadelphia... They have 26
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: at-bats against them, but Detmers has actually not done well
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: against them. 385 average, 1,054 OPS, five strikeouts, seven walks.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: So those are not good numbers. I can't back Detmers here, man.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: He has bad matchup numbers. I can't do it. Initially,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh, yeah. Detmers is definitely better than Painter. Like,
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: we might be able to back Anaheim here, but I
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: don't think we should. And they are an underdog. And
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: the line initially dropped on Philadelphia, but the money looks
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: like it is actually coming in on Philly now. Maybe
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: because they're the more motivated team, potentially. 64% of tickets,
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: 87% of the cash on Philly. Third about minus 130.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, I might not even disagree, actually, because Painter
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: has been in much better form. He's kind of unfamiliar
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: to Anaheim, and Anaheim, Dedmers does not do well against Philly,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: so I might have to flip that whole thing around
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: and actually lean towards Philly here, which, ugh, kind of gross.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: And I think I still see kind of more indicators
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: towards an under than an over here. We have 72%
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 92% of the cash on the over, but
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: you have two bullpens that are kind of okay. I
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: don't love Anaheim's for sure. I mean, I don't love
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: either bullpen for sure, but they're both rested coming into
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: this game. Neither offense is really that good. Phillies is
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: not that good on the road. Anaheim's is very bad
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: at home. So you have two offenses that might be
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: a little bit weak here. Both pitchers are in very
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: good form right now. Total being at $ 8. Yeah, I
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: think there are more arguments for an under than an
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: over here. And the side for me is actually hard
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: to figure out, so I don't know. Maybe the under
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: makes more sense than the side. Tough game to figure out, though.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: Baltimore at the A's. The A's have a rest advantage here.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: The A's are staying at home as well, and they
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: didn't play yesterday. And the A's won their last two
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: games against Minnesota, so they're not going away entirely. Baltimore
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: just played yesterday, and they're traveling from St. Louis out
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: to the Pacific Coast. This is a big-time negative for Baltimore.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: They're at a rest disadvantage, and they're having to go
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: Central Time Zone to Pacific Time Zone for a 9.40 p.m.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: Eastern game. You know I talk about that. When a
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: team has to travel west, it can mess with their
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: biological clock. It's going to be like they're playing 11 p.m.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: by the end of the game based on what they're
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: used to. So I don't think that's really that good.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: uh for baltimore here plus the a's have the rest
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: edge of course the a's are a terrible team and
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: maybe the worst team in baseball so can we really
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: back them here can we actually back jacob lopez here
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: i don't think i want to do it i mean
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: i definitely would not back their bullpen even though their
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen is rested baltimore used two guys out of their
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: bullpen but they i don't really think they use their
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: better relievers yesterday um in I think what was a loss,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: although it was kind of a close loss. The A's bullpen,
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: even if they're rested, they're very bad. They're the worst
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: in baseball, even though they're second worst whip. They're a bad,
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: bad bullpen. Baltimore's number 10 in bullpen, so yeah, Baltimore
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: still has a bullpen edge here. The A's are 14th
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: in offense. The Orioles are 16th. Both, I guess you
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: could just say, mediocre offenses. We're in an offensive ballpark here, though.
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: Brandon Young is getting the start for Baltimore. He's been decent, 3.5 ERA,
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: but his 1.36 whip does indicate that his ERA should
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: be higher than it is. He's not quite as good
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: on the road, although he doesn't have extreme splits, but
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: a 3.67 road ERA is higher than what it is
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: at home. He's not pitching as well recently. This month,
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: he has a 14-9 strikeout walk ratio, so he seems
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: to be coming out of form a little bit here, although...
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: Two of the starts were against Tampa, so it's not
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: really that easy, but he also struggled against Anaheim a
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: few starts back, which is not that great of a sign.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: He's kind of been bad over his last five starts,
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: and he's given up too many hits, too. So Young
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: is kind of out of form right now. His hit
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: rate is one per inning, which isn't great, really. His
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: walk rate is kind of okay. Strikeout rate is a
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: bit too low, so I don't really love this. Although,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: as far as pitching in the A stand, he's not
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: a huge home run player. conducive pitcher and he's not
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: a huge fly ball pitcher he's got not an even
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: split like a little bit more fly ball heavy but
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: not extreme so how is he going to pitch here
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: i don't know man um he's got only a 2.2
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio which isn't really that good his strikeout
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: per nine is in the sevens which isn't really that
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: great either uh his numbers against the a's The A's
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: only have eight at-bats against him, four hitters have faced him.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: Jonah Heim does, like, all the damage. He has all
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: three hits against him with a couple of doubles, but
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: that does result in a. 375 average, 1,069 OPS, 2-1
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, so maybe not the greatest matchup for
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: Young here, although he'd be unfamiliar to some of the
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: hitters there. Jacob Lopez is pitching for the A's. This
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: guy is hard to figure out because he's very streaky, dude. Like,
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: last year, this year, he has stretches where he's just
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: absolutely terrible, and then he has stretches where he looks awesome.
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: And it's like, what are you going to get out
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: of him here? I really have no idea. His overall
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: numbers are not that good. 4.98 ERA, 1.48 whip is
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: pretty bad. He's not as good at home. 5.48 home ERA,
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: although his batting average allowed at home is actually better.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: But we know how bad this stadium is for pitchers. However... Lopez,
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: even in his recent home starts, he's allowed two or
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: fewer runs in every start going all the way back
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: into early July, although some of those starts weren't deep outings,
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: but he is pitching a lot better right now, and
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: he's got a 29-5 strikeout walk ratio this month. relatively
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: few hits allowed too. So he's pitching a lot better
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: right now. He currently is in good form. His hit
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: rate is still kind of not that great on the season.
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is still not really that good. His
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is okay. Lopez doesn't throw hard. So when
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: you see all these high strikeout numbers, it's because he's
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: commanding his breaking pitch as well. Like he mostly has
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: this curve ball. That's really hard to hit. Um, His
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is still really bad, though, below 2.
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: His strikeout per 9, not good. Well, actually, it's not bad, 8.6,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: but it did drop from the 11 that he posted
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: last year. So he had a lot of strikeouts going
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: on last year. His numbers against Baltimore are pretty good,
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: and 22 at-bats, 227 average, 625 OPS, 6-to-1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: I'm going to lean the A's here, man, but only
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: do it in the first five. There's no way you
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: can back this bullpen. The money seems to lean Baltimore here,
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: but I don't think either team is going anywhere. I
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: think we know that. The A's are actually undecided right now,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: so maybe scratch that. I would say you have to
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: wait to see who the A's pitcher is, but I
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: think if it is Lopez, I do lean to the
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: A's in the first five. 73% of tickets, 92% of
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: the cash on Baltimore, though. They dropped from minus 145
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: all the way down to about a pick'em. So I
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: think if you're going to play the A's in the
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: first five, you're probably going to be looking at playing
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: the A's as a favorite in the first five. But
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: I think that might be the right way to play
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: this game. I don't know who it's going to be, though.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: If it's some spot starter or something or a bullpen game,
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: then yeah, I don't think you should do it. But
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: if it's Lopez... I would definitely consider the A's here
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: in the first five. I think they have the better spot.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: Young is not in good form right now. Lopez, if
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: it is him, is in better form. So that's what
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: I would do. And there's money coming in on the
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: under for whatever reason. The total is not that high
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: for an A's game at nine and a half. I
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: don't know what to really think about that. Although I
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: think if you're going to try to play the under,
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: I think you should only do it in the first five. Arizona,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, we lost on the over in the game yesterday.
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: San Francisco put up a bunch of runs in the
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: eighth inning and tried to tease us there and it
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: came within one run of a push that game it
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: was a loss though i mean there wasn't a lot
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: of hitting going on in that game it was a
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: 2-1 game i think going into the eighth inning so
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: yeah it was bad Not going to win every game.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: Arizona here. Arizona should be the more motivated team here
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: because they're trying to make the playoffs. They're in a
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: wild card race here. San Francisco might show up still, though,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: to try to play spoiler here. And they did win
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: last night. And I think the starting pitching matchup in
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: this game does favor San Francisco here. so I don't
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: really want Arizona in this one, even though they did
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: lose yesterday. Arizona used three relief pitchers. I don't like
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's bullpen. They used three as well, but they're
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit less rested. Arizona's the better bullpen. They're
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: ranked eighth. However, as I always say, they're not that good,
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: but San Francisco's ranked 24th, and San Francisco grades out
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: worse basically across the board. Arizona's ERA is better, although
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: only by. 02, but they still got the better bullpen.
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: Arizona does have the better hitting as well, in my opinion,
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: although they're 21st right now. San Francisco's 20th. But given
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: what Arizona's looked like since the All-Star break and who
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: they have in their lineup, Marte is back, by the way.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: Cattell Marte, whatever his name is, he left the team
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: when they were in Boston for whatever reason, but apparently
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: he's back. He's totally schizo, dude. I don't know why
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: any team would want that guy, but I think he
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: is back in Arizona's lineup right now. Arizona's going with
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: Cole Drake in this game, though. He's... I would say
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: he's a young dude, although he's 26. He hasn't pitched
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: in the majors much, but he has not had a
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: good season here. 5.4 ERA, 1.56 whip. This is his
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: first major league experience, though. He's only made four starts.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: So maybe he'll get better, but he hasn't been good
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: in any of them, really. And he's gotten worse, pretty much.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: I guess first start was the best one. The only
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: one where he went five innings. It was against the A's.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: It was at home, of course. Although it is still
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: a hitter-friendly park in Arizona, but we're in San Francisco
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: in this one. and that is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Drake's
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: numbers are still not good, though. He's got a high
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is fine-ish. Strikeout rate, not
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: really great, so I don't know. His strikeout walk number's
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: in the twos. Strikeout per nine is only seven. None
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: of that is really that good. Drake, I think he's
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: been back in the minors, and they're calling him back up,
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: so maybe he'll have changed some things. It looks like
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: he hasn't pitched in the majors since early August. San
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: Francisco's never faced him, so maybe he does have an
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: advantage there, the unfamiliarity edge, but I don't know if
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: that's going to be enough. Blade Tidwell is pitching for
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: San Francisco. He's kind of a converted reliever, but he's
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: still young, and he looked good last time out against
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. His numbers overall are good, a 3.5 ADRA, 1.16 whip.
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: Worst ERA at home, 3.71, but his opponent batting average
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: is significantly better at home, 179. So he is actually
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: pretty good at home. Last time at home he wasn't good, though,
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: against the Rockies. Overall, he's got a decent hit rate.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is somewhat okay, but his walk rate
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: is still too high. So his strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: not very good. It's in the twos. Strikeout per nine
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: is okay. He improved on that this year, so it's
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: in the sevens, which isn't horrible. Tidwell hasn't really been
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: seen by Arizona because he hasn't pitched much in the majors.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: They're one for seven off him. Arenado has the only
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: hit against him, and only Arenado, Kepler, and Neutbar have
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: faced him. Two strikeouts, one walk in there. Tidwell does
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: have some unfamiliarity here as well. I'm going to lead
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: San Francisco first five here. I think Tidwell should have
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: the upper hand over Drake, although I think Arizona has
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge here. So I would say San Francisco
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: first five. Where are they at? Money doesn't agree. Money's
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: coming in on Arizona. 54% of tickets, 94% of the
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: cash on Arizona as the more motivated team, I guess.
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: But you're having to lay a price on the road, man,
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: around minus 130 almost, although it's dropped a little bit.
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: I don't think I would want to lay. With Cole
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: Drake on the mound, do you really think Arizona should
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: be a favorite like that on the road? I know
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's bad, but I don't know. I think I
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: would take the shot with San Francisco in the first
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: five if I was going to play this one. The
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: money's coming in slightly towards the over eight as well there.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great feel for the total in
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: that one, but yeah, I think San Francisco in the
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: first five makes more sense. It'll probably be around a
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: pick-em price, though, because I think the oddsmakers probably know
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: that's where San Francisco's bigger advantage is. All right, let's
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: look at WNBA, and then I'm going to try to
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: cruise through the... the NFL preseason. I don't know how
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: that's going to go. There's like 10 games. I do
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: have a WNBA play in the first game. Well, there
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: are two games coming up first. We have three games
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: with huge spreads here. And we're going to take the
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: underdog and the one that has the biggest total, which
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: I know a lot of times doesn't work out. But
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: last time we took an underdog with a low total,
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: and that didn't work out either. So we're going to
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: take Portland plus 12.5 here and fade the Atlanta Dream.
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: We're going to fade Angel Reese here, man. Hopefully Angel
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: Reese will waste time missing a bunch of her own
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: layups here, but I don't think this is a good
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: spot for Atlanta here. Atlanta's returning home from the Pacific Coast,
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: and I know it is easier to go west to east,
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: as I always say, but even so, they've been on
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: the road since the 18th, so they've been on the
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: road for a long road trip. Out on the Pacific Coast,
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: they swept the road trip. They pretty much only faced
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: one good team on the road trip, though, which is Vegas,
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: and they won that game by double digits. Now Atlanta's
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: coming home. I know Portland's not very good, but Atlanta
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: didn't play that many good teams on the road trip either,
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: and they're probably feeling very high on themselves, right? Like, yes,
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 2: successful road trip. We feel good. Now they have to
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: get back to home life, whatever. They've been off since Monday,
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: but even so, I think it's a distraction. Plus, that
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: extra time off, you don't want that when you're on
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: a four-game win streak, right? Rest... In my opinion, rest
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: usually halts whatever momentum you have going on. So you
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: want rest when you're playing poorly. You don't want rest
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: when you're playing well. And they're playing well. Even though
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: they did play a bunch of games kind of in
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: quick succession there, so maybe the rest could help them
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: a little bit. But even so, I'm rambling. It's a
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: return home spot. It's a negative spot typically. It's a
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: distraction spot. But even worse than that, they have a
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: big NBA TV game up next against the best team
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: in the league, Minnesota. So I think that could be
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 2: a look ahead too. So I think this is basically
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 2: a sandwich spot. The return home, which is a distraction,
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: plus Minnesota on deck. I don't see them paying attention
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: to Portland here, even though they did actually lose here
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: to Portland back on July 11th. Portland actually came in
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: here and beat them by 11. And that wasn't even
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: a particularly bad spot for Atlanta there. So I don't
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: know what happened in this game. Did Portland actually outplay them? No.
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was a major outlier, so I do
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: worry about that a little bit. The rebound battle was
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: pretty close, though, but Portland definitely... They hit a ton
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: of threes in the game, so it was a big outlier,
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: and they shot ridiculously well, even though Atlanta had way
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: more shots. So, yeah, that worries me a little bit
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: as far as Portland is concerned. We know they're not
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: the better team here, but we only need them to
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: come within a 12.5-point spread here, man. And Portland... They
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: only have one day fewer rest here, and they're already
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: in the middle of a road trip here. So they're
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: only coming in from Dallas. So they're only making travel.
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 2: It's a travel spot where they're only making a trip
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 2: one time zone over. And they've been off since Tuesday.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: So they have one fewer day of rest here. Yeah,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: I think it's a much better spot for them. I
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: think they're going to show up. They're going to try
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: to at least put in an effort to try to
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: split the road trip here. And yeah. that's all I
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: got here. Portland, by the way, did lose at home
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 2: to Atlanta by 20 the other time they played them,
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: but whatever. I'm not really focused too much on those
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: prior results because they weren't really that recent. So when
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: they're not that recent, I kind of ignore it a
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: little bit. Um, but yeah, I think the spot sets
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: up for Portland. It's a return home spot for Atlanta,
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: plus a look ahead for Atlanta. Let's fade them in
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: this one. Um, The money doesn't seem to agree. How
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: could Portland be a public side here, man? There's no way.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: 91% of tickets on them, 90% of the cash. There's
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: no way. I do not agree with that. I don't
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: understand why that's happening in the market. I know the
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: total's not that low. It's the highest of the day.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: It's around 180, but... I say we still do it.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: We're getting them as a big underdog in a spot
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: where I don't even consider Atlanta to be that good offensively.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 2: They're somewhat more of a defensive team, in my opinion,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: and Portland, I know their defense isn't good, but they've
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: been a little bit better recently, at least, so hopefully
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: we can get some lower, hopefully this will be lower scoring,
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: even though the oddsmakers are kind of saying it won't be,
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: and the money is kind of indicating towards the over,
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: but Whatever. It's all about the spot. We're going to
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: take Portland. Got to get the WNBA back on track, man.
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: And probably the only way to do that is to
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: just start firing every time I see a spot that
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: I like. And if I'm good enough, hopefully the more
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: wins than losses, hopefully can gradually pull us out of
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: the small hole that we're in here. The WNBA hole,
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: that's not good. A lot of holes I don't want
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: to go near here. Connecticut at Indiana. This is a
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: ridiculous mismatch here. Indiana's a massive favorite, like one of
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 2: the bigger favorites you'll see in the WNBA, even though
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: Indiana's not the best team in the league. They're considered
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 2: to be probably like a top five team. Indiana just
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 2: smoked the sky in their last game. That sounds weird.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: They're returning home from a road trip, though, although they've
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 2: had a bunch of days off. They've been off since Sunday,
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: but it's still a road trip return, and do they
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: really pay that much attention to Connecticut here? Probably not.
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 2: So I don't think it's a great spot for Indiana.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: They were away since the 16th. almost a two week
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: sort of road trip here. Well, it was a bit over,
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: I guess it was like a week long road trip.
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: And since then they've just been off. I don't think
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: that's a great thing though. They don't have a big
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: game up next. So they do have to go to Toronto. Uh,
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: but it looks like they have a bunch of time off.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: So I don't know what the deal is here. Like
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: they have two weeks off. Is there another break in
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: the WNBA season? I'm not sure what the deal is
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: with that, but whatever. Maybe there is another break. I
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: don't know. Connecticut, bad team. They're on my bad side.
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: They played better than it looked like in that game
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 2: against the Valkyries where we took a loss on the
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 2: show there. Connecticut tried to come back in that backdoor situation,
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: but they were already behind by way too much, even
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 2: though they put up More points than Golden State did
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: towards the end of that game. It wasn't enough. Statistically,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: Connecticut definitely could have covered that one. They had way
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 2: more possessions in the game. I'm kind of pissed about it.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: They have way less rest here, though, because they played
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: on Wednesday, but they're starting a road trip. They should
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 2: be focused on Atlanta here. or excuse me, on Indiana here.
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: Indiana's got the rest edge, but I think the spot
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: is better for Connecticut starting a road trip over Indiana,
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: returning from one. The money doesn't agree. The money is
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: laying the points with Indiana. 58% of the tickets and
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: 92% of the cash in Indiana. 72% of the cash,
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: excuse me, on Indiana. 58% of the tickets. 17.5% is
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: the number there. Yeah, it's a really high number. I
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 2: would take the points with Connecticut. I mean, I think
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: At the very least, you pretty much know there's not
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: going to be any value laying a huge spread like
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: that with Indiana. Feels like a key number because it's
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: about to be football season. By the way, some of
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 2: those football games last night were crazy, dude. The Moorhead
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: State game where they got upset. I don't think they
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: were that big of a favorite, but they got upset
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: in a crazy three-overtime game. And then there was a
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: big upset with West Florida, who just moved up to
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 2: Division I. And we'll talk about them in basketball because
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 2: I cover... they'll be in the a sun and basketball
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: and i cover all the basketball uh conferences i don't
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 2: cover fcs football though uh but west florida pulled off
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: like a 20 point upset in their first game uh
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 2: as a division one team it was at home i
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: think there was a lot of uh excitement around that
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: game pretty i forget they upset southern illinois i think
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: so it was anyway um Yeah, so the money is
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: indicating against me on that Portland-Atlanta game. I don't agree
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: with it in this Indiana game either. I would lean
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: towards taking the points here. I know it is another
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: high total there in the high 170s, but I think
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: the spot is a little bit better for Connecticut, although
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: they are definitely they're at a bit of a rest
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: disadvantage there definitely toronto at vegas toronto is dude what
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: is this team doing toronto i mean they're one of
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: the teams that has been in the mix like in
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 2: i don't know like going against uh sophie cunningham and
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 2: whatever and Toronto now has introduced two new mascots. Dude,
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: this Toronto team, they're an expansion team. This is their
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: first year. They're a bad team. They're not playing well.
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 2: And they're focused on putting out two new mascots for
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: the team that both have non-binary pronouns. That's seriously what
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 2: they're doing. Do you really think that's going to get
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: people to watch this fucking league? There's no way. So
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 2: I hope they get their asses handed to them tonight
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: because they deserve it. This is the most stupid... franchise
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: in the WNBA they're worse than Minnesota at least Minnesota
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 2: is a good team Toronto is a joke they're not
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: a good team and they're focusing on pronoun mascots how
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 2: about you focus on winning some games first you dumb
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: fucks it's so fucking stupid good luck playing Vegas tonight
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 2: by the way Vegas is clearly the way better team here.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: Vegas just beat Toronto on the road, but that does
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: mean I lean against Vegas here. It is a zigzag spot.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: Vegas just played Toronto and beat them. That game was
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: actually in Vancouver because Toronto played, I think, multiple games
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: in Vancouver. I have no idea why. Now Vegas is
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 2: back home after that. I don't think they're going to
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 2: take Toronto that seriously, man. I mean... It is what
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 2: it is. Vegas, it's kind of a get in, get
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 2: out type of game here. Do I think Vegas will lose? No.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're a huge favorite here, but Toronto could
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: definitely cover and not win here. Vegas just went in
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: and beat them by 10 in Vancouver, whatever. There are
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: some zigzag components to this. If you look at what
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 2: happened in this game, Vegas shot pretty well. Uh, the
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 2: number of field goal attempts was very similar, but Vegas
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: had a better shooting percentage. Although, and Vegas did go
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 2: to the line way more. The rebound battle was close.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: Vegas only won it by one. Although they kind of
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: dominated the game lead wise, they led pretty much the
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: whole way. And it's not a good sign that Toronto
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 2: hit five more threes. It's still lost the game by
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: double digits. So that's not a good sign. So it's
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 2: not all good for Toronto here, but I would, I
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 2: will still lean to Toronto in somewhat of a zigzag here. Um,
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: I believe Toronto, that was the last game they played too.
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: Let me see. No, Toronto actually lost to Seattle in
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: between the two. So the Aces actually do have a
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 2: rest advantage here. Toronto might still bounce back from that.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 2: That was an ugly performance against Seattle. That's how bad
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: Toronto is, though. Losing by double digits at Seattle. Yeah, great.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: But people are going to look at that and think, oh,
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 2: there's no way they're going to do anything against Vegas
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: here now. The money doesn't agree with me on this either.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on Vegas, laying like 14 points here,
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: or 13.5, I guess, is where most of the books
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 2: have it. 68% of tickets, 91% of the cash on Vegas.
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: The total's dropped a little bit. into the mid-170s, but yeah,
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: I would lean towards taking it with Toronto, taking the points,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 2: even though they're a stupid franchise, and I hope they lose,
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: but whatever, not a play for me, and then Washington
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 2: and LA, I was looking at this one kind of hard,
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: LA just, you know, they had kind of a close
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 2: game against the Dream, though, in their last game against Atlanta,
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: so they're staying at home, though, and that was four
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 2: days ago, so LA might be up for this game,
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: but that was tough, man, it was a game where
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: they were kind of hanging around in this game. You
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Like by the end of it though,
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: they were kind of out of it. So I don't
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: really want to say it was like a close finish,
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: but it was fairly close going into the fourth quarter.
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: So they played a pretty competitive game there. Maybe not
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: the greatest spot for them, but we're talking about Washington here.
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: It was a very good defensive team. Maybe not a
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: good spot to play Washington because they're, um, on the
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 2: road here as a favorite, and that's probably not where
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 2: you really want them. And they're on a back-to-back. That's
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: why I was looking at L.A.
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 2: You know that's got to be factored into the line
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but you're still going to get L.A.
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: as an underdog here. And I think that is the
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: way to look here. I mean, Washington played yesterday at Phoenix.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: They also played on Tuesday and Sunday and Friday and Wednesday.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 2: So look at, I mean, this is a rarity in
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: the WNBA. They're on a back-to-back, a third game in
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 2: four days, fourth game in six days, fifth game in
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: eight days, all in different cities. Very, very difficult. You
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 2: don't even see this in the NBA that much. Like
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: a spot like this will come up maybe for each team,
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 2: maybe like a couple times in the NBA season. And
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 2: they played another game at home right before that too.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: So this Washington team, very bad rest situation for them.
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 2: And they beat LA by 10 at home right before
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 2: that whole stretch started. So I don't think they're really
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: going to focus on L.A. They don't have a big
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 2: game next, though. They have the break, and then they're
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 2: playing Chicago. And by the way, that's the other thing
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 2: as far as this break that's coming up. Atlanta has
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: Minnesota coming up in two days, so that's a look-ahead
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 2: spot there. Then they go on that break. So Atlanta
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: does have another game, that Minnesota game. That's why I
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 2: think it is a legitimate look-ahead. If that Minnesota game
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 2: was after the break, I wouldn't like this as much,
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 2: but it's coming up in two days. But anyway, this game,
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 2: I would play LA or not play the game. Washington,
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 2: they're not a team you want to lay points with
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: like this. It's kind of a low total in the 160s.
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 2: That indicates more towards the dog. The money coming in
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 2: on the under, but the money's coming in towards Washington.
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 2: And yes, they're definitely the better defense and the better team.
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 2: There's no question about that. 82% of the tickets on L.A.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 2: I don't buy that. I don't buy that the public
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 2: is actually playing L.A. here. 94% of the cash on Washington.
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: I don't buy it, man. It's a horrible rest spot
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: for Washington, as I just showed you. They're going to
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: get 5.5 points with L.A. at home here. That's the
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 2: way I would play it. I would take the points
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: with LA. All right, let's try to get through. Unless,
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 2: should I take another break and then do the NFL preseason?
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: There's kind of a lot to get through, although I
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 2: try to kind of cruise through it quickly here. Yeah,
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: I'll take one more break. I'll be right back. Yep, inside,
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days. After tonight, it was
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 1: 1-5.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing.
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4.
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: I just have not had a good season, man. With weekends. Slump.
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 2: new peak, actually. I'm gonna burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: March 8th?
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 2: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 2: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right, NFL
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 2: preseason here. Bunch of games here. Ten games, I think,
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 2: is what we have here today. I was correct about
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh covering yesterday, although they blew the game. I was
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 2: correct about Cleveland, who won by a lot, and probably
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 2: because they didn't play Shadur Sanders. Look at that. One game,
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 2: they don't use Sanders, and they win easily. Don't Gabriel
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 2: actually look really good in that game, even though I
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: don't think he's good either. And then I think I
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 2: wasn't right about the other two, though. I mean, NFL
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 2: preseason is chaotic, man. You've got to figure out motivation
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 2: and quarterback rotation. Here, Baltimore looks like they're trying to win. Like,
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 2: they've won both their preseason games. They have a new coach,
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 2: so a lot of times the new coach will try
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 2: to win. It seems like they play Washington every preseason.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is coming back from Minnesota here in this one. Actually,
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 2: I forget what order these games are played in. I
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 2: think that's right. They're coming back from Minnesota here, whatever.
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 2: I don't even remember that game happening. Now, Washington, Dan
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 2: Quinn doesn't care about the preseason. They're 1-1 in the preseason.
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 2: As far as Washington's quarterback rotation, I don't think we're
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 2: going to see Jaden Daniels here. I don't even know
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 2: if they've used him in the other ones. If the
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 2: starters come into these games at all, they're not going
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 2: to be in for very long. Marcus Mariota is questionable,
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 2: so I think Washington is going to be using Hartman
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 2: and Kaliak Manas for the most part in this game.
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 2: Hartman has not looked good in preseason, and Kaliak Manas
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 2: has actually looked pretty good. So we'll see both of
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 2: them here. I don't know if that's good or not,
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 2: but The fact that they're trying to test them out
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 2: means they might be trying to do some things on
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: offense here. For Baltimore, Lamar Jackson likely not going to
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 2: play here. Tyler Huntley is a very experienced backup. For
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: most of his career, it seems like he's been Jackson's backup.
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 2: So he does understand the Baltimore system, even though they
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 2: have a new coach here. So he's got experience when
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 2: he's out there, at least. And then Joe Fagnano has
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 2: looked awesome, actually, in preseason. So he's probably going to
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 2: get a big look in this game because they want
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 2: to see What they have in him. So. It's you know.
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 2: The quarterback rotation. I think is decent on both sides.
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 2: I think I kind of like Baltimore here. The money
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 2: does seem. to agree with this they're minus three minus
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 2: three and a half here 64% of tickets 93% of
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 2: cash on them I think they have the more motivated
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 2: coach here And, you know, the quarterback rotation seems a
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 2: little bit better for Baltimore here because the guy that
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 2: they aren't really trying to see anything from, Huntley, is
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 2: an experienced quarterback, at least, that might go out there
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 2: and do a good job anyway. So that's what I
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 2: think there. Atlanta and Miami, I mean, these two teams,
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 2: probably two of the teams that are getting made fun
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 2: of the most are, out of all the teams in
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 2: the NFL. Atlanta did win, though, in a blowout. I
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 2: told you, man, after Atlanta was the laughingstock after that
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 2: game against the Broncos, I told you Atlanta was a
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 2: look in that game against the Colts, and they wiped
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 2: the Colts. Really good performance from Atlanta, but where does
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 2: the reality lie? I don't know. Probably somewhere between the two,
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 2: although Atlanta, with the new coach Stefanski, I don't think
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 2: he's a good coach, but they're trying to win under him,
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: it looks like, at the very least, in preseason. As
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: far as Atlanta's depth chart, I don't know about this
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 2: QB situation here, man. Tua has not looked good. Penix
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 2: might be hurt. So you might see a lot from
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 2: the other two guys. Cooper Rush, you know what he
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 2: is at this point. He's kind of an NFL veteran
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 2: at this point. He's been around for a while. He's experienced,
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 2: so he'll give you some experience out there. But Jack Strand,
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 2: I think he's going to wind up being Atlanta's starter
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: at some point, man. He's the Division II quarterback, and
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 2: he looks pretty good. He's kind of been the talk
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 2: of the preseason so far. So it's interesting. You might
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: see a lot of strand in this one. And then
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 2: let's see. I'm not quite sure. I don't want to
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 2: totally guess what these guys are going to do. Maybe
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 2: they want to give Tua another look here and give
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 2: him more chances. Who knows? Miami, they have not looked
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 2: good in preseason. They're 0-2. They have a new coach there.
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 2: You'd figure the new coach would be motivated. They have
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 2: looked real bad. scoring 7-3 in their two preseason games.
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 2: But a lot of times when that happens, that team
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 2: is worth a look in their next game, you know
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 2: what I mean? Because nobody wants to lose like that.
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 2: Nobody wants to be that bad. Miami might be a
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 2: very bad team this year, though, man. We'll see what happens,
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 2: but I don't hate their top two QBs here, Willis
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 2: and Quinn Ewers. I don't know. I mean, maybe Ewers
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 2: isn't really that good, but we'll see. And then they
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 2: also have Cam Miller and Mark Gronowski. I mean, it's...
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I mean, it's not their best
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 2: quarterback rotation. And I don't know if Willis is getting
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 2: into this game or not because he will be their
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 2: starter at the start of the season. Ewers, I think
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 2: they want to keep taking a look at him because
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 2: they drafted him last year as possibly one of their
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 2: next QBs that they're going to have there. Atlanta's favored
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: at minus 4.5. The money is coming in on Miami. Actually,
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's at 3.5, my mistake. ESPN said 4.5, but 3.5
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 2: looks like it's the predominant number. 59% of tickets on Atlanta,
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 2: 59% of the cash on Miami. So the money is
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 2: coming in on Miami. By the way, of course, as
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 2: I usually mention, we have a lot of low totals here.
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 2: They're like all in the 30s. It's preseason. The games
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 2: tend to be lower scoring. And as I always say
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: with the totals, I think it depends on How vanilla
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 2: is a team going on offense? Like, if a team
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 2: just doesn't have any quarterbacks, they're really trying to see
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 2: what they have, and they're all right for the regular
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: season to start, you know what I mean? Like, possibly
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 2: Seattle might be one of those teams. You might not
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 2: see a whole lot out of that team's quarterbacks, you
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? So that's, like, the type of
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 2: situation where maybe unders make more sense. Anyway, this game...
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, the money's saying Miami. I don't know, man.
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've looked so bad that maybe they are
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 2: worth a look here. I don't really love their quarterback rotation, though.
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 2: Even though you can make fun of Atlanta's strand is
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 2: fairly good. I don't know, man. I mean, maybe Miami
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 2: is the right side there, but that game's difficult to
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 2: figure out. And it's, again, preseason. I don't do anything
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 2: with it, really. I'm just talking about it. Carolina against Houston.
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 2: Carolina's played three preseason games because they played the Hall
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 2: of Fame game. They won that game. They lost to Buffalo.
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 2: Then they beat Jacksonville in their last game. Now they're
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 2: coming back home. This will be their only home preseason game.
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 2: Maybe Carolina does want to show up here. Houston... They
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 2: look like they might kind of just be going through
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 2: the motions here. They should have. I mean, I don't
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 2: know if they should have because Mendoza really helped them
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 2: out with that bad pick six in that game against
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 2: the Raiders, but Houston blew the game late against the Raiders.
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 2: Houston looked like they didn't really show up against the Chargers,
• 2:02:38
  Speaker 2: and now they're going on the road here. I don't know.
• 2:02:40
  Speaker 2: Houston should have a good season here, but to me
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 2: it seems like they're not really focusing on preseason, although
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 2: their coach, Ryans, actually tends to try to win in preseason,
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 2: so I don't really know what they're doing here. Maybe
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 2: after two losses, maybe they do want to try to
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 2: win a preseason game, though. I don't think that you're
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 2: going to see much of Stroud. Stroud actually played in
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 2: the last game, I'm pretty sure. He was in there
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 2: for a little while, so he's probably not going to
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 2: be in this game. It's going to be Davis Mills
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 2: for the most part, but Houston... They know what Mills is.
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: He's been their backup for forever, so they don't need
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 2: to see anything from him. They got Rippon as their
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 2: other quarterback. He'll probably get a look in this game too,
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 2: but I think he's a guy that's been around for
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 2: a while too, so I don't think Houston's going to
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 2: do anything crazy here. To me, it doesn't seem like
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 2: they're going to be that motivated, really. They don't have
• 2:03:25
  Speaker 2: any quarterbacks to try out, so I think they're going
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 2: to be going pretty vanilla in this one, it looks
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 2: like to me. Carolina might try harder here. I mean,
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 2: who knows? Even though they've I mean, they've been trying
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 2: in their preseason games. Don't know if we're going to
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 2: see Bryce Young. Haynes King has been hurt, and he
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 2: looked good in that Hall of Fame game or whatever.
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much he's played since then. He's
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 2: an interesting dual-threat QB, though, but if it's going to
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 2: be mostly Kenny Pickett here, I don't think Carolina's going
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 2: to do much with him, man. I mean, we know
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 2: what he is at this point. He's been around for
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 2: a while. He's not the greatest, so I don't know.
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 2: This game might actually be more of an under type
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 2: of game here. The money is somewhat coming in on
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 2: the over, although the over is public. Looks like there
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 2: was a little bit of movement towards the under early.
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 2: It's in the mid-30s here, so you're not on any
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: key number here. Maybe an under in that game. The
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 2: money looks like it's indicated towards Houston, which I don't
• 2:04:19
  Speaker 2: really love that. 57% of tickets, 54% of the cash
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 2: on Carolina. Houston's favored. You'd think Houston would be public,
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 2: but I guess the public is so fickle, they're like, well,
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 2: Houston's looked bad in preseason, even though you've got to
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 2: think everybody thinks Houston's going to be the better team
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 2: once the season starts, but maybe not because the public
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 2: doesn't like these defense-oriented teams, and that's what Houston is.
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 2: Carolina's kind of the flashier team. like offensively and whatever,
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. Money indicating towards Houston, I don't
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 2: have a great read on it, man. I think maybe
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 2: an under in that game, but I got nothing. An
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 2: under might be correlated more towards Houston, though, because they
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 2: want to just kind of play defense, and to me
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 2: it seems like they're not going to do much on
• 2:05:01
  Speaker 2: offense there. We do have New York, New York, the
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 2: Frank Sinatra game. Giants and Jets are playing each other.
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 2: Both playing in their home stadium. Who's the home team?
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 2: Apparently the Jets are considered the home team here. Jets
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 2: looked good last time out. They beat the Steelers. So
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 2: the Jets have actually looked okay in preseason. Maybe the
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 2: Jets are actually not as bad as we think they are, man.
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know. The Giants, they're 1-1 in the preseason
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: as well. They had a good win over the Dolphins
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 2: last time out. Although the Dolphins look like they really blow.
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if that really matters. As far
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 2: as the rotations here, Jackson Dart, I don't know, did
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 2: he play in the last game? I'm not sure. Let
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 2: me look at their schedule here real quick to see
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 2: if we can gauge anything from that. It looks like
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 2: it was a lot of Winston. If Dart played, he
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 2: didn't play that much, but of course... Oh, no, he did.
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 2: That's right. We saw him because he got sacked, and
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 2: everybody was like, oh, Dart, taking another hit. I'm like,
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 2: that was in the first preseason game, I think. I'm like, yeah.
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 2: Of course he took a hit when the entire offense
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 2: couldn't block anybody.
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 1: Um, I don't know.
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 2: So probably dart won't be in this game because he
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 2: is kind of an injury risk. Jameis Winston has looked
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 2: pretty good, I guess in the preseason, but I don't
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 2: know if they don't really need to see anything out
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 2: of Winston, right? Although he is a gunslinger. So when
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 2: he's out there, he's going to be trying to have
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 2: fun and chucking the ball around, uh, probably, uh, and
• 2:06:21
  Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh, you know, that he does have a tendency
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 2: to try to win preseason games or excuse me, John Harbaugh,
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 2: John Harbaugh. Um, But once he lost his long streak
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 2: that he had, he kind of stopped doing that. They
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 2: got Brandon Allen and Jake Hayner as well as their
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 2: other quarterbacks. I don't know what's going to go on
• 2:06:39
  Speaker 2: with any of that. But yeah, the quarterback rotation I
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 2: don't think is that conducive to a really high-scoring game
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 2: out of the Giants here. And Dart probably won't be
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 2: in the game. uh, the jets. I don't know if
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 2: we're going to see Gino Smith or not here. I
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 2: don't like who the jets have here as their, uh, quarterbacks.
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 2: They'll be trying them out to see what they have
• 2:07:00
  Speaker 2: with club Nick cook. Um, I don't know if any
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 2: of them have really looked that good in the preseason though.
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe I'm not paying enough attention. Um, yeah,
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, we don't see like insane stats coming out
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 2: of these games here. So I don't know. Um, I
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 2: don't think I like this jets quarterback rotation here, man. Um,
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 2: this game might be another under type of game. The
• 2:07:20
  Speaker 2: money is definitely indicating on the under in this one,
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 2: 55% of tickets, 92% of the cash on the under here,
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 2: money indicating on the giants, 58% of tickets, 89% of
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're minus three. I kind of
• 2:07:32
  Speaker 2: agree with both. Like I think the giants do still
• 2:07:35
  Speaker 2: have the better QB rotation, even if it is just
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 2: Winston chucking the ball around. Winston's definitely a talent, uh, jets.
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we like any of these young
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 2: guys they have in their rotation here. Um, But an
• 2:07:47
  Speaker 2: under makes some sense. I think the game might be
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit vanilla as far as the offense on
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 2: both sides. Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. The Battle of Florida,
• 2:07:58
  Speaker 2: I guess, or whatever. One of the Battles of Florida.
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 2: jacksonville's one and one they just lost pretty badly to
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 2: panthers maybe they do kind of want to bounce back
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 2: here but i don't know man i mean how much
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 2: does this game really matter to these two teams who
• 2:08:10
  Speaker 2: knows uh tampa bay has won both of their preseason
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 2: games so they've looked pretty good You know, I mean,
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 2: maybe they take a step back here in this game.
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, I don't know if they've used Mayfield yet
• 2:08:22
  Speaker 2: in the preseason. I think they might have used him already.
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if we're going to see him
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 2: at all here. But you look at their rotation is...
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 2: I don't think very good. Jake Browning, we know he
• 2:08:32
  Speaker 2: was a backup for Burrow for a while, kind of
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: a lifetime backup. He was bad enough that Cincinnati went
• 2:08:37
  Speaker 2: out and got Joe Flacco, so don't think he's good. Basilak,
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 2: I guess, has looked good at times in preseason action.
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 2: And then they might try to take more of a
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 2: look at Jalen Daniels, not Jaden Daniels. Jalen Daniels, who
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels will probably sue for having a similar name.
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 2: Jalen Daniels out of Kansas is good. recent draft pick
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 2: from Tampa Bay here so they might have him out
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 2: there taking an extended look of him I still don't
• 2:09:02
  Speaker 2: like this QB rotation though and they're going up against
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville who I don't know if Trevor Lawrence I think
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: Lawrence might have already played in the preseason too but
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 2: I could be wrong about that behind him they just
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 2: have Nick Mullins and I have no idea who Carter
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 2: Bradley and Joey Aguilar are Maybe it's just that I
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 2: don't know enough about who these QBs are, but this
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 2: again seems like maybe another low scoring type of affair here.
• 2:09:26
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be kind of backing the over though.
• 2:09:28
  Speaker 2: 69% of tickets, 90% of the cash in the over.
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 2: I think I would probably slightly lean under in this one.
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 2: Total is one of the lower totals out there. It's
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 2: still above that somewhat key 34 and a half though.
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 2: 34 and a half, 35 there. Um, Money coming in
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 2: on Tampa as well, 52% of tickets on Jacksonville, 68%
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Tampa. Tampa is a two-and-a-half-point favorite.
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I don't have a great read
• 2:09:56
  Speaker 2: on that game either. I don't have a great read
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 2: on most of these. New Orleans at Dallas. New Orleans
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 2: got smoked in their last game by the Rams, so
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 2: they might bounce back. They've looked pretty bad, actually. They've
• 2:10:07
  Speaker 2: lost both games in the preseason, got killed by the Rams,
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 2: and everybody's kind of making fun of New Orleans after that.
• 2:10:13
  Speaker 2: Maybe New Orleans will bounce back from that, although I
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: don't know if they're really playing Shuck in the preseason here.
• 2:10:18
  Speaker 2: He's going to be their starter, and I think he's
• 2:10:20
  Speaker 2: actually good. But I think we've seen a lot of
• 2:10:22
  Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler in the preseason. We know what he is
• 2:10:25
  Speaker 2: at this point, so you don't really need to take
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 2: an extended look at him. And Zach Wilson has been
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 2: in the league for forever. We know what he's going
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 2: to give you, too. So I don't really love this
• 2:10:33
  Speaker 2: New Orleans quarterback rotation. And then Hunter Deckers, I don't
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 2: know exactly what they're going to do with him.
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 1: Dallas.
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 2: I think Dallas has actually looked good in the preseason.
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 2: I know they beat Seattle, and their defense held Seattle
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 2: way down, which is kind of surprising. And then Dallas
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 2: smoked Arizona in their last game. So you have an
• 2:10:54
  Speaker 2: 0-2 team against a 2-0 team, and I think maybe
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 2: you do want to look towards the 0-2 team when
• 2:10:59
  Speaker 2: you have a situation like that. Maybe Dallas has looked
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 2: too good in preseason. I don't know if Dak has
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 2: been out there at all, but the thing about Dallas
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 2: is I don't know if they've figured out who their
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 2: backup is. I think they're still trying to figure out
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 2: who their backup quarterback is between Milton III and Sam Howell.
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 2: I think they both look pretty good at times during
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 2: the preseason, so they might be getting a lot of
• 2:11:19
  Speaker 2: action in this game too and playing well again too.
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 2: So I don't really want New Orleans here because I
• 2:11:25
  Speaker 2: think the quarterback rotation is actually better for Dallas here.
• 2:11:29
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Money is indicated towards Dallas, even though
• 2:11:33
  Speaker 2: they're like a 2.5-point favorite, 3-point favorite. It looks probably
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 2: too easy to play Dallas here. 68% of tickets on them,
• 2:11:39
  Speaker 2: but 94% of the cash on them as well. I
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 2: don't think I disagree, even though usually I want to
• 2:11:46
  Speaker 2: kind of look towards the team that's looked really bad,
• 2:11:48
  Speaker 2: like New Orleans coming off a disgusting 34-0 loss and
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 2: not having won a preseason game. I don't know. The
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 2: QB rotation is just better for Dallas, so those are
• 2:11:58
  Speaker 2: the things that are in conflict there. Arizona and Green Bay.
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 2: Arizona did just lose to Dallas. Like I said, they
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 2: played three preseason games already because they played the Hall
• 2:12:07
  Speaker 2: of Fame game. They're only 1-2. Carson Beck is actually
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 2: hurt right now for Arizona. He looked good in the
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 2: Hall of Fame game. I think he might be good eventually,
• 2:12:18
  Speaker 2: but he's been hurt since then, so I don't know
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 2: if he's going to play here, which might mean Arizona
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 2: goes a little bit more vanilla here because I don't
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 2: really think Brissette's going to get out there. I mean,
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 2: he's been around for forever. You know what he is
• 2:12:29
  Speaker 2: at this point. He's already been in this system for
• 2:12:32
  Speaker 2: a while. Gardner Minshew might be out. Gardner Minshew II, oh.
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 2: He might be out there for a bit. I like Minshew, man.
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a veteran, but... When he goes out there,
• 2:12:41
  Speaker 2: he might be trying to have a little fun, trying
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 2: to win the game. And then Keaton Slovis, I guess,
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 2: has looked somewhat good at times. You're probably going to
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 2: mostly see those two guys out there for Arizona. I
• 2:12:52
  Speaker 2: don't know how good that really is. Green Bay, Jordan
• 2:12:55
  Speaker 2: Love was out there last week in their game on Friday,
• 2:12:59
  Speaker 2: I believe. So he played a little bit, but they've
• 2:13:01
  Speaker 2: been using Kyle McCord a lot. They beat Denver last time,
• 2:13:05
  Speaker 2: and they looked really good in that game against Denver.
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 2: Maybe too good, but again, it's preseason. Jordan Love was
• 2:13:11
  Speaker 2: out there for a little bit. I don't think he's
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 2: going to play in this game. They got him some
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 2: playing time last week. They don't want to get him hurt.
• 2:13:16
  Speaker 2: And then it's Tyrod Taylor, who definitely is experienced and
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 2: is a dual threat, so he at least might be
• 2:13:23
  Speaker 2: doing some crazy stuff when he's out there. They've taken
• 2:13:26
  Speaker 2: that extended look at Kyle McCord, though, because they might
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 2: like him as maybe more of their backup. They might
• 2:13:32
  Speaker 2: be still trying to figure out who their backup really
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 2: is here, so they might be giving those quarterbacks some...
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 2: crazier plays for that reason. The money's coming in on Arizona, though.
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 2: 53% of tickets on Green Bay, 55% of the cash
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 2: on Arizona. Arizona's actually, they opened as a favorite, and
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 2: now Green Bay's kind of a one-point favorite here. But
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 2: I think it does look kind of too easy to
• 2:13:52
  Speaker 2: play Green Bay, the team that everybody kind of knows
• 2:13:55
  Speaker 2: is the better team. But it's not going to be
• 2:13:57
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love out there, you know. I don't know if
• 2:14:00
  Speaker 2: Carson Beck is supposed to get some more play. Like,
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 2: is he actually going to be back here? I don't know.
• 2:14:05
  Speaker 2: Money's coming in on the over. The over kind of
• 2:14:08
  Speaker 2: makes sense in this game, actually. The total is one
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 2: of the somewhat higher ones. It's still below that key
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 2: number of 37. 62% of tickets, 76% of the cash
• 2:14:15
  Speaker 2: on the over. I think both teams might be trying
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 2: to see more from their quarterbacks here. So maybe the
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 2: over does make some sense in this one. Other than that.
• 2:14:25
  Speaker 2: I think Arizona, maybe a slight lean for me towards
• 2:14:27
  Speaker 2: Arizona there, just because they didn't look that good last week,
• 2:14:30
  Speaker 2: and Green Bay did. Seattle at Kansas City, as I
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 2: kind of already alluded to, this seems like an under,
• 2:14:35
  Speaker 2: and it is a really low total, but I don't
• 2:14:38
  Speaker 2: think either team is going to be doing a whole
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 2: lot here. Seattle, I think they're just trying to get
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 2: ready for the season. They've lost both their preseason games.
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 2: It is what it is. I mean, I don't think
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 2: they care that much. Seattle's quarterback rotation. Drew Locke has
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 2: played pretty well in the preseason, but he's been their
• 2:14:54
  Speaker 2: backup for a while. He's had a long career, so
• 2:14:57
  Speaker 2: I don't think they need to see much out of him.
• 2:14:58
  Speaker 2: They're probably going to play Jalen Milrow more to try
• 2:15:03
  Speaker 2: to see what they have out of him. I don't
• 2:15:05
  Speaker 2: know if Darnold has played at all in the preseason,
• 2:15:08
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if we're going to see him
• 2:15:09
  Speaker 2: at all. Probably not. Milrow, they probably want to get
• 2:15:12
  Speaker 2: him more time just to try to start developing him more.
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 2: He hasn't looked that good, though. He could definitely run.
• 2:15:19
  Speaker 2: He's a dual-threat quarterback, but his quarterback skills have not
• 2:15:23
  Speaker 2: been very good. He threw a couple of picks last game.
• 2:15:26
  Speaker 2: Hasn't really looked that good. So I don't know, man.
• 2:15:29
  Speaker 2: I don't think it looks that good for Seattle here.
• 2:15:31
  Speaker 2: In Kansas City, they're not really going to be doing
• 2:15:33
  Speaker 2: anything either. Mahomes is not going to be out there.
• 2:15:36
  Speaker 2: You wouldn't imagine. He's listed as questionable. They're trying to
• 2:15:39
  Speaker 2: get ready for the regular season, so I don't think
• 2:15:41
  Speaker 2: you're going to see him. You might see some other
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 2: offensive players for them not take the field here. Justin
• 2:15:46
  Speaker 2: Fields is an experienced backup, though, and he's played well
• 2:15:49
  Speaker 2: in the preseason, but I don't know if they really
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 2: need to do much with him. They already know what
• 2:15:54
  Speaker 2: they have with him. And then Nussmeyer, they might want to...
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 2: I think Nussmeier is actually going to play the majority
• 2:16:00
  Speaker 2: of this game because he's their draft pick this year.
• 2:16:02
  Speaker 2: They want to see what they got in him out
• 2:16:05
  Speaker 2: of LSU, but he has not looked that good in preseason.
• 2:16:08
  Speaker 2: Then they do have Oladokun, I don't know how to
• 2:16:11
  Speaker 2: pronounce his name. He played a little bit last year
• 2:16:14
  Speaker 2: after Mahomes got hurt, but he has not been very good.
• 2:16:17
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, this Kansas City rotation doesn't really
• 2:16:20
  Speaker 2: look that good to me, especially if it's going to
• 2:16:21
  Speaker 2: be a lot of Nussmeier here and Maybe he'll be
• 2:16:24
  Speaker 2: good eventually. I don't know, man, but this game does
• 2:16:26
  Speaker 2: seem like an under to me. The money seems to
• 2:16:29
  Speaker 2: be indicating that way. 64% of tickets on the over,
• 2:16:32
  Speaker 2: 53% of the cash on the under. Total's really low.
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 2: It's below that key number of 34, though, so that's
• 2:16:38
  Speaker 2: kind of a problem. I think if you wanted the under,
• 2:16:40
  Speaker 2: you already missed the boat on it because it opened
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 2: at 36.5, and anything 34 or above that key number
• 2:16:46
  Speaker 2: of 34, that would have been awesome. 33.5. I mean,
• 2:16:50
  Speaker 2: you're losing on that key number there. I don't love it,
• 2:16:53
  Speaker 2: and it's the lowest total on the board, but there
• 2:16:55
  Speaker 2: is a reason for that. Some real money has come
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 2: in on the under in that one, but definitely late
• 2:17:00
  Speaker 2: to the party there. A lot of times, these games
• 2:17:03
  Speaker 2: will move, man, especially these totals. 58% of the tickets
• 2:17:06
  Speaker 2: are on Seattle, 71% of the cash on KC, so
• 2:17:09
  Speaker 2: the money backing KC here, they're at about minus one here.
• 2:17:14
  Speaker 2: I kind of agree with that. I mean, the public
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 2: kind of likes Seattle because they won the... Super Bowl
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 2: last year, of course, the public probably doesn't like what
• 2:17:22
  Speaker 2: they see. Both teams have lost both preseason games, by
• 2:17:25
  Speaker 2: the way. So kind of both teams are in that
• 2:17:27
  Speaker 2: bounce back spot. But to me, it just seems like
• 2:17:30
  Speaker 2: it's because both teams just don't give a shit about preseason.
• 2:17:33
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? These are teams that are
• 2:17:34
  Speaker 2: supposed to be contenders to win the Super Bowl. So
• 2:17:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think they care about preseason. Like they already
• 2:17:41
  Speaker 2: know what their starting lineups are going to look like.
• 2:17:42
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? They don't really have to.
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 2: The only thing they have to figure out is who's
• 2:17:46
  Speaker 2: going to make the team like at the bottom of
• 2:17:47
  Speaker 2: the roster. Um, So whatever, but yeah, maybe a slight
• 2:17:52
  Speaker 2: lean towards Kansas City here. The game is in Arrowhead.
• 2:17:55
  Speaker 2: The fact that Kansas City's trying out Nussmeyer here might
• 2:17:58
  Speaker 2: be better than Seattle trying out Milrow, but I have
• 2:18:01
  Speaker 2: no idea, man. Cincinnati and Philadelphia, that game's on ESPN Unlimited,
• 2:18:05
  Speaker 2: and so is the New Orleans-Dallas game. CBS National TV
• 2:18:09
  Speaker 2: has Cincinnati and Philly. I don't know if you're going
• 2:18:11
  Speaker 2: to really see the starters here in this one, though.
• 2:18:14
  Speaker 2: Phillies 0-2 in the preseason. Not really doing a whole
• 2:18:18
  Speaker 2: lot here, I don't think. Cincinnati usually doesn't do well
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 2: in preseason either. They're 2-0, though. They've actually won both
• 2:18:25
  Speaker 2: of their games. That has me kind of maybe leaning
• 2:18:28
  Speaker 2: towards Philly, even though I wound up kind of leaning
• 2:18:31
  Speaker 2: towards Dallas in the other game. We have a 2-0
• 2:18:33
  Speaker 2: team against the 0-2. I kind of like the 2-0
• 2:18:35
  Speaker 2: team there, just because of the quarterback rotation they're throwing
• 2:18:39
  Speaker 2: out there. Cincinnati, though, I mean, to me, it doesn't
• 2:18:43
  Speaker 2: look like they're really going to be. I mean, look
• 2:18:44
  Speaker 2: at their backups, Flacco and Josh Johnson. They don't need
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 2: to see anything from those guys. Those guys have been
• 2:18:50
  Speaker 2: around for forever. They're both, like, 40-plus years old. We
• 2:18:54
  Speaker 2: know exactly who they are. Like, you know what I mean? Like,
• 2:18:56
  Speaker 2: they don't need to see anything from those guys. And
• 2:18:58
  Speaker 2: then maybe they'll try out Sean Clifford here. I don't know.
• 2:19:01
  Speaker 2: I don't think Burrow's going to really be out there.
• 2:19:03
  Speaker 2: So I don't like Cincinnati's quarterback rotation here in this one. Philadelphia.
• 2:19:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Hurts has played in the preseason,
• 2:19:10
  Speaker 2: but he's probably not going to be out there. Andy Dalton,
• 2:19:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a guy that's been around for forever, too,
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 2: so they don't need to see much from him. They
• 2:19:18
  Speaker 2: might try out more of Tanner McKee, who's younger and
• 2:19:21
  Speaker 2: has been one of their backups for a while, but
• 2:19:23
  Speaker 2: they kind of know who he is at this point, too,
• 2:19:25
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. And then Cole Payton. I don't
• 2:19:28
  Speaker 2: know what's going to go on with him, but yeah,
• 2:19:29
  Speaker 2: I probably do slightly lean Philly here, and the money
• 2:19:32
  Speaker 2: is indicating that way. 54% of tickets on Cincy, 78%
• 2:19:35
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Philly. I kind of like it.
• 2:19:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, the 0-2 team against the 2-0 team, Cincinnati's
• 2:19:40
  Speaker 2: QB rotation, very experienced, but they don't need to see
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 2: anything out of those guys, you know? some minus 2.5
• 2:19:48
  Speaker 2: maybe for Philly, although you don't really need to see
• 2:19:49
  Speaker 2: anything out of Andy Dalton either. The Red Rocket, I
• 2:19:52
  Speaker 2: think this is an under game as well. The total
• 2:19:55
  Speaker 2: did already drop through that key number of 37, though,
• 2:19:57
  Speaker 2: so if you want that under, you've already missed that
• 2:20:00
  Speaker 2: best number there. And the money is kind of backing
• 2:20:02
  Speaker 2: the over. 71% of tickets, 94% of the cash on
• 2:20:05
  Speaker 2: the over. But I would lean under in that one.
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 2: I don't think either team's going to do a whole
• 2:20:10
  Speaker 2: lot with those offenses there. And then NFL Network has
• 2:20:13
  Speaker 2: the late game as well. To finish off the doubleheader,
• 2:20:16
  Speaker 2: they have the earliest game and the latest game. Minnesota
• 2:20:19
  Speaker 2: at Denver is this game. Minnesota. They're 1-1 in preseason.
• 2:20:25
  Speaker 2: They played two really low-scoring games here. I don't think
• 2:20:27
  Speaker 2: you're really going to see Kyler Murray. They've announced him
• 2:20:29
  Speaker 2: as the starter. J.J. McCarthy might be hurt, so I
• 2:20:33
  Speaker 2: don't know how much you're going to see out of him,
• 2:20:34
  Speaker 2: but I don't think he's that good anyway, man. And
• 2:20:36
  Speaker 2: then behind him, Wentz, who Wentz has been around for forever.
• 2:20:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, if he's going to be out there, it's
• 2:20:41
  Speaker 2: going to be very vanilla, I would imagine. Probably a
• 2:20:44
  Speaker 2: lot of this has to do with... Like, you know,
• 2:20:47
  Speaker 2: the fact that they've played low-scoring games makes a lot
• 2:20:49
  Speaker 2: of sense, given who their quarterbacks are. And Max Brosmer,
• 2:20:52
  Speaker 2: he's bad. So, yeah, I don't know, man. I mean,
• 2:20:56
  Speaker 2: it looks like Minnesota's not going to be doing a
• 2:20:57
  Speaker 2: lot offensively here. Denver, I don't know if Bo Nix
• 2:21:00
  Speaker 2: has been out there at all. They've been using Jarrett
• 2:21:03
  Speaker 2: Stidham a lot. I don't think they need to see
• 2:21:06
  Speaker 2: much out of him, though, because he's been around for
• 2:21:08
  Speaker 2: a while. They know what they have with him. And
• 2:21:10
  Speaker 2: Sam Ealinger, Ellinger, whatever the hell his name is, I
• 2:21:13
  Speaker 2: don't think they really need to see much out of
• 2:21:15
  Speaker 2: him either. They kind of know what they're getting, so
• 2:21:16
  Speaker 2: this game to me also seems like an under. This
• 2:21:19
  Speaker 2: total is on that key number of 37.5, and it
• 2:21:22
  Speaker 2: has dropped from 39.5, but you're still on that key
• 2:21:25
  Speaker 2: number of 37.5, so I kind of like the under here.
• 2:21:29
  Speaker 2: 59% of tickets, 91% of the cash on the over, though.
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 2: Money indicating towards the over here. the line has dropped
• 2:21:37
  Speaker 2: a little bit on Denver as a favorite. They're minus 3.5.
• 2:21:39
  Speaker 2: Denver does try to win in preseason. Sean Payton tries
• 2:21:42
  Speaker 2: to win in preseason, and the money is coming in
• 2:21:45
  Speaker 2: that way. 66% of tickets, 95% of the cash on Denver.
• 2:21:49
  Speaker 2: Maybe that is the right way to look. I mean,
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's going to have to go into elevation for this one,
• 2:21:54
  Speaker 2: which may not be that easy for them. And Sean Payton, again,
• 2:21:57
  Speaker 2: is more likely to try to win this game than
• 2:21:59
  Speaker 2: I think Kevin O'Connell is. So maybe Denver makes sense too,
• 2:22:02
  Speaker 2: but probably my preference would be the under... And that's it.
• 2:22:06
  Speaker 2: That's the show. Way too long of a show today.
• 2:22:09
  Speaker 2: Too much fucking preseason, man. We have three plays, two
• 2:22:13
  Speaker 2: in baseball. We have the Mets on the money line.
• 2:22:15
  Speaker 2: These are both full game plays. Pittsburgh Pirates money line.
• 2:22:19
  Speaker 2: Both pretty good prices there, I think. And then we're
• 2:22:22
  Speaker 2: also trying it out with the WNBA, man, still. We
• 2:22:26
  Speaker 2: got to get some more money back in the WNBA.
• 2:22:28
  Speaker 2: We're taking Portland plus the 12.5 in the WNBA. It's
• 2:22:31
  Speaker 2: entirely a fade of Atlanta in a bad spot, though.
• 2:22:35
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Learn to Tone on Twitter.
• 2:22:37
  Speaker 2: Learn to Tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 2:22:39
  Speaker 2: You'll get notified when I go live. College football, FBS
• 2:22:43
  Speaker 2: football officially starts tomorrow with about six or seven games.
• 2:22:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm going to have a play.
• 2:22:48
  Speaker 2: I've had a play each of the last two years.
• 2:22:49
  Speaker 2: Last year, K-State I think was kind of still the
• 2:22:53
  Speaker 2: right side in that Dublin game, and they wound up losing,
• 2:22:55
  Speaker 2: and I had a play in the Dublin game the
• 2:22:57
  Speaker 2: year before that too, and it was a nice win
• 2:22:59
  Speaker 2: with Georgia Tech against Florida State, so that one was
• 2:23:03
  Speaker 2: a good big underdog outright win on that one, so
• 2:23:06
  Speaker 2: those are the ones I remember, I don't know if,
• 2:23:08
  Speaker 2: I don't like the Dublin game this year, well, I
• 2:23:10
  Speaker 2: don't know, we'll see, it's the Belichick game, so I
• 2:23:13
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, it is a revenge game for them,
• 2:23:16
  Speaker 2: kind of, I don't know, I got to break it down,
• 2:23:18
  Speaker 2: and we'll see, but Subscribe and you'll get notified when
• 2:23:21
  Speaker 2: I go live. I might do the college football show
• 2:23:23
  Speaker 2: tonight just to get that off the plate and then
• 2:23:26
  Speaker 2: I can just focus on baseball or whatever for the
• 2:23:28
  Speaker 2: morning show. We'll see. But this is that crossover time
• 2:23:33
  Speaker 2: period where there's just way too much to do. And
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 2: the extended college football weeks and NFL weeks that are coming,
• 2:23:40
  Speaker 2: you know those shows are going to be the night
• 2:23:41
  Speaker 2: before because that's how I usually do it. Although... Hopefully
• 2:23:44
  Speaker 2: the Lions are still good enough, but those are such
• 2:23:46
  Speaker 2: public sports that usually the Lions are good enough, except
• 2:23:49
  Speaker 2: in those smaller college football conferences where you might have
• 2:23:52
  Speaker 2: missed out on some of the better numbers. And it
• 2:23:55
  Speaker 2: screwed us on one play last year that should have
• 2:23:57
  Speaker 2: been a winner. It was one of the MAAC teams.
• 2:24:01
  Speaker 2: It was a MAAC game. It might have been a
• 2:24:03
  Speaker 2: MAAC team against a non-MAAC team. I forget what it was,
• 2:24:06
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. It was some bullshit. Anyway, and
• 2:24:09
  Speaker 2: the better number would have still hit for us, but
• 2:24:11
  Speaker 2: we still should have won that game, and the team
• 2:24:13
  Speaker 2: blew it. I think it was, I want to say
• 2:24:15
  Speaker 2: it was Miami, Ohio against somebody. Oh, I forget. Anyway, like, subscribe, yeah,
• 2:24:20
  Speaker 2: and get all the good content here. And, you know,
• 2:24:23
  Speaker 2: leave comments, tell people about it, hype, whatever. We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 2:24:30
  Speaker 2: Covered in you because my ukulele channel on YouTube, you
• 2:24:32
  Speaker 2: can check that out. Patreon.com slash learn to tote if
• 2:24:35
  Speaker 2: you want to support me that way. What else do
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 2: we have? Loser cast every Tuesday night in the New
• 2:24:41
  Speaker 2: York Giants G-Spot podcast. Got to figure out what we're
• 2:24:44
  Speaker 2: doing with that, but that's going to do it. I
• 2:24:45
  Speaker 2: appreciate everybody. Happy Friday. Let's kick off the weekend right.
• 2:24:50
  Speaker 2: I'll probably see you guys tonight with a bit of
• 2:24:52
  Speaker 2: a short college football show, but we'll talk about all
• 2:24:55
  Speaker 2: those games. It's not too many games. And like I said,
• 2:24:58
  Speaker 2: once we get to the full slates, I'm not talking
• 2:25:01
  Speaker 2: about every game. It's just impossible to do that, obviously,
• 2:25:03
  Speaker 2: but I will talk about all the big games. That's
• 2:25:06
  Speaker 2: going to do it. Peace.
• 2:25:10
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 2:25:15
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have to
• 2:25:22
  Speaker 1: lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 2:25:33
  Speaker 1: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 2:25:40
  Speaker 2: On Let me pull.
• 2:25:42
  Speaker 1: You out That bad luck fights hard But it don't
• 2:25:50
  Speaker 1: get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me
• 2:25:57
  Speaker 1: now Hold on, hold on.
• 2:26:06
  Speaker 2: You're still here now.