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بازار کار در بُهت زخم‌های پی‌درپی · اکو ایران | روند

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: When an epidemic occurs, the labor market is both the
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: first place to be affected and the last place to
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: be out of the epidemic. We have learned a lot
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: from Iran's economy. The shocks that have been imposed on
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: them and have now reached their peak with the war
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: of reconciliation. Now the question arises, what path do these
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: shocks take to reach the labor market? Stay with us
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: in this part of the Ravand program. The Iranian economy
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: in the year 1404 faced three major shocks, including the
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: 12-day war, the two-month protests, and the four-day war. These shocks,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: including the shutdown of the Internet, the closure of markets,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: the collapse of the labor market, the remote work, the
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: online education, the destruction of infrastructure, and the civilian and
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: military areas were together. According to a report published by
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the Iranian Center for Information Technology, these three issues were
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: one of the five main channels affecting the work and
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: life of the people. The first issue is the creation
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: of a disorder in the internet. We have seen this
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: issue in all three issues in the past year, which
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: caused problems with digital and online platforms. Even traditional platforms
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: were not in our control because the card machines were
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: also disturbed by the internet. This incident made it impossible
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: to work remotely and teach online. Because of the uncertainty
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: of these three issues, people stopped working actively because they
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: were afraid of the bombings in both cities, the city's insecurity,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: and the isolation of the work centers and institutions, the
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: laborers paid a lot more than the potential benefits of
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: that opportunity. Therefore, in such times, we must also pay
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: attention to the number of non-active communities, in addition to
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: the unemployment. In addition to this situation, in the social
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: protests of the previous month, the presence of people on
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the streets and on the streets was more dangerous in
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: commercial areas, and some people who were students could not
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: go to work, and sometimes they also became unemployed. So
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: one of the effects that the world can have on
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: the labor market is a decrease in the quality of work.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: This happens in the direction of negative employment, a problem
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: that usually occurs before unemployment increases. This means that the
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: quality of work has become worse and many of the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: full-time jobs have given their place to hourly projects or
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: day jobs. Many employers have reduced the working hours and
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: rights instead of taking out the workforce because of high
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: unemployment and risk. This may actually cause unemployment to rise
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: a lot, but if it continues, the possibility of unemployment
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: and the decline of the workforce will increase. The three
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: points that we pointed out greatly increased the general level
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: of prices from two main paths. One was the increase
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: in production costs and the other was the increase in
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: employment expectations. Even before the war, laborers were under very
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: high economic pressure and the rise in the value of money,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: the increase in production costs and the new wave of
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: employment caused the prices of clothes and services to increase dramatically.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: As a result, the program was not completed and the
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: purchasing power of many families was reduced. In the course
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: of the war and the expansion of the Internet, the
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: conditions became more difficult for people and jobs. In addition
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: to these events, the motivation for investment and the creation
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: of new jobs was also reduced. When there is a
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: lot of uncertainty, people take their money for free and
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: take it cheap. And the employees are less likely to
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: expand their work or establish a new force As a result,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: the decrease in demand is deeper depression and weaker market
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: For this reason, reaching the working situation is not just
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: counting the jobs But it shows how much the economy
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: can tolerate the boom and return to normal conditions So far,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: we have talked about the impact channels on the country's
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: labor market so that these effects are neutralized and we
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: reach a good situation in the labor market, we must
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: have a good economy. Let's continue to look at the
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: high-economic factors to see if we can expect a profitable
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: labor market from this economy or not. Let's start with
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the economic growth. This share was negative in the mid-1990s
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: and in general it was very negative. The important point
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: to note is that the growth without oil prices has
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: always been lower and less negative. This shows that Iran's
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: economy is very dependent on oil revenue and the non-oil
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: sector cannot create a sustainable growth. In the end, the
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: decline in economic growth affects the market and causes a
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: decline in employment. The next important factor is inflation. In
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the past few months, the annual turnover is facing record-breaking records.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: With the rise of the economy and the high turnover,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: the ability to buy families is rapidly decreasing, and even
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the remaining employees in the labor market are faced with
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: low employment and lower income. Because of this condition, families
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: become dependent on government friends, and in a situation where
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: the government is a double-edged sword, the unemployment increase is
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: looking for unbearable social costs. Therefore, the improvement of the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: work force is not only making the decline of the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: recession worse, but also reminding the country of the economic
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: and social stability of the country. In addition, the income
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: of the Iranian capital has also reached a worrisome level,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: due to the decline in the purchasing power of the
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: real estate of families, which has caused the decline of
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the society. In the year of 1404, this trend continued, war,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: production problems, financial decline and uncertainty made the situation worse,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: and the actual income of the people decreased from what was.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: As a result, the gap between income and living expenses
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: is more every day than yesterday, and the table of
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: many families is smaller than before. So we are now
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: faced with a situation where we used to be in
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: a position of weak economy with high inflation and low
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: people's purchasing power. By the end of 1403, about 44%
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: of the people were under the absolute poverty line, and
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: this economic pressure caused the increase in social inequalities. After
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the war, the closure of the workplaces due to the
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: loss of working opportunities and the damage to the labor
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: market made the situation worse and hundreds of thousands of
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: people were expelled from the labor market. Now, with the
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: continuation of economic problems, this number has probably increased. Now,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: the most open-minded person can go to the workers' market
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: and criticize them. This example shows the course of changes
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: in the labor community from the 90s to 1403. In
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: this period, three times We were facing a decline in
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: the number of students Most of them were in 1999
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and at the same time with the coronavirus outbreak More
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: than 1 million people were expelled from the country's university
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the slide and check the details of
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: this study in the year 1404 The difference between the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: decline in employment in 1999 and 1404 is that the
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: effects of the coronavirus outbreak mainly occurred in a more
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: than one year time frame But fortunately, the 12-day and
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: 40-day wars were much shorter in terms of time. In
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: order to prevent the situation of bad employment in the
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: labor market more, social security documents have also been received.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: With the exception that the latest documents published by this
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: organization are in the year 1404, the Iranian room has
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: received changes in the number of unemployed people in this
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: report in the month of December compared to the last
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: few years. The course of changes in this sector in
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: the past few years shows that in the first 10
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: months of the year 1402 and 1403, an unprecedented number
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: of social security organizations have increased Which also means an
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: increase in employment. But in the first 10 months of
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the year 1404, the number of unemployed people has decreased
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: by more than 611,000. This issue itself can have serious consequences.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Because the social security system is facing a lack of
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: resources right now. And with the decrease in the number
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: of unemployed, this problem is formed. This is why the
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: organization is forced to withdraw from its resources or withdraw
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: from the government, which can, in the form of a
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: defective circle, cause the formation of a budget and eventually collapse.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Unemployed people alone cannot cause a surge in unemployment after
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: the war and reflect various shocks, because this phenomenon only
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: includes people who were active in looking for work. However,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in the very uncertain conditions of war, a large part
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: of the active community withdraws from the scope of work
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: and enters the non-active community. According to the latest data,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: more than 1,350,000 people have been expelled from the labor
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: market in the winter of 1404 compared to the spring
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: of 1404. In fact, the joy of war is more
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: than increasing unemployment, but it has also taken the motivation
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: to work in the society. For the change of the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: number of factories in the game of Esfand 1403 to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the death of 1404, that is, before and after the
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: 12 days war with a 22% decrease. On the other hand,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the number of 1-person factories has increased by 12%, which
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: is probably due to the reduction of larger factories to
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: individual factories. On the other hand, several zero-person workplaces were
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: also at a 7.7% decline. This decline does not mean improvement,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: but it means that some of the agreements that were
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: completely abolished before were completely abolished. In other words, the
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: war has not only reduced the number of students, but
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: has also reduced the construction of employment towards small, unofficial,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: and unfinished projects. The Iranian economy, before the shock of
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: the year 1404, was facing a downward economic growth and
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: an absolute rise in poverty. In the same way, two
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: wars and one social protest happened in just one year,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: which caused the country's economy to be more fragile than before.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: The spread of the Internet and the destruction of the
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: country's military and industrial infrastructure, the extermination of thousands of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: factories and factories, and more importantly, the loss of trust
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and motivation for any form of economic activity, not only
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: caused by the loss of jobs, but also by the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: lack of understanding of the meaning of work in the
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: literature of the labor market.