Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | Truist Championship | May 7, 2025 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A

Transcript

PGA DFS | Truist Championship | May 7, 2025 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:48
  Speaker 1: What's going on, good fans, it's your boy g sleep
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: with our DFS live stream for this week's Truest Championship.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Gotta go over any of your questions down there and chat,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: look at the weather report out there before rounds one
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and two, give you guys I das some of the
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: strategy ownership heading into block as well, and then we'll
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: look at some of the contests available, some lineup construction
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: over there on DraftKings as well, and put it all
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: together for you before you enter your lineups. So hopefully
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: you're having a fantastic week. Wednesday is one of my
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: favorite days of the weekends. Anytime we have a new
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: golf course like this, it's like the day before Christmas
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: for me, because we end up getting very interesting slates
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: when we haven't seen a golf course before, some prevailing
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: narratives that you might be able to go out there
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: and leverage against out there for DFS as well, so
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about different ways that you could approach this slate.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: They go out there and make it a good one.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: But anything else you're curious about, just go ahead and
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: let me know down in the chat. But we already
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: got Jay down there, go collect as well also beg Littleneck.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys are having a swell day. C Floyd
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: as well. Brand says long hitter Luke. It wasn't quite
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: the long hitter Luke out there on the golf course today,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: but we had some fun out there on the links.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: We got Rick rolled down there, go collect with his
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: pounded Luke down there and let's have ourselves a week. Absolutely,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: and just like Mike said, there go ahead smash like
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: bund if you got a han't already either, But let's
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: start it off with a talk about the golf course.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: And I'm not gonna be the kind of tell that
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: tells you that I know exactly what's gonna happen this week,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: but let's talk about what you do on weeks like
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: this on the PGA Tour. When we have a brand
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: new golf course, there's gonna be a lot of content
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: out there that tries to give people an idea of
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: how the golf course is going to play. And while
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: sometimes it might be exactly spot on, you know, going
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: after that content might be a really good idea, there
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: have also been plenty of times in the past where
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: it hasn't gone according to the industry standard. Maybe it
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: conditions weren't quite up to par, maybe it was softer
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: than people were expecting, or maybe the golf course just
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: played into a different type of skill set for one
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: reason or another. There could be a thousand different reasons
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: why that can go out there and happen that. I
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: can tell you somebody that's been doing this for four
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: or five years over here on YouTube, that I've.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Gone things wrong plenty of times out there on tour.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And you know, if I've gone things wrong, I can
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: guarantee you that other content creators have as well in
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: the process.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: And I've seen it before myself.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: You saw it even just a few weeks ago without
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: people thought that, what was it a couple of weeks
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: ago long on golf course CJ Byron Nelson was going
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: to play out there just last week. A lot of
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: people were looking for putting first sort of players, and
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: if you take a look at that leaderboard, it was
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: a lot more bomber heavy than you would have thought.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So on a week like this, to get to the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: chase here, I like to go out there and fade
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: that prevailing narrative. A lot of times there'll be you know,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: certain quote unquote key stats that people are throwing out
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: that end up being blowny by the end of the week,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: and a few things that I've noticed out there in
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: the industry. Not saying that these are going to be wrong,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna let you know where other people are going,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: so maybe you can consider going another direction is I've
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: seen a lot of people talking about wedge play this week.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: It is a short par seventy, so again, I don't
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: know if that's really incorrect over there, but a lot
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: of people are gonna be focusing on those players. And
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I heard bomber narrative from a few people as well,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: and well, I agree that there are some bunkers that
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: you can carry on this golf course. It is also
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: a softer week. They've gone some rain over here in Philly,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: so it's probably gonna be playing a little bit longer
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: than usual out there over the first few rounds.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: It's a short par.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Seventy, so you know, while you might have some of
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: these narratives that people are throwing out there, I don't
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: know if it's a big enough push or a big
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: enough edge out there at this golf course that your
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: player pool should like only be bombers. There should only
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: be guys that are really good on bent grass or
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: only really good wedge players. Like I've heard some people
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: saying form heading in could be a really good way
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: to evaluate your pull. So rather than focusing on this
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: key sat or another right, trying to guess how the
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: golf course is going to play, why not just play
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: guys that are playing.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: Well heading into this event? Right?
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Why not simplify it as much as humanly possible and
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: take the guys with good form. Now, you can't just
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: take good form players in all six spots, because that's
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: probably six chockey players you're using in a lineup. But
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: that kind of idea could be how you simplify it
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: out there in your process this week. Maybe you see
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of people going to bombers and you say,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: you know what, maybe if plays to an accuracy week,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: maybe it's more about being positional off the tee. I
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: actually see a way, and based on what I see
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: with this golf course, that it is an accuracy first
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: golf course.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: In fact, that's what I'm playing out there for my
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: player poll this week.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Right, that's the narrative that I'm choosing to go down
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: because I don't think a a lot of other people
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: are going to be choosing to do so. So whether
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: whatever that narrative is for you, and maybe it is
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: going after bombers, I don't want to completely dismiss that
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: it is probably going to be the most popular narrative
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: that people are going with. But whatever the case, maybe
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: pick your lane on a week like this and run
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: with it. Because nobody knows for certain how this golf
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: course is going to play. Some people probably know better
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: than others because of personal experience on the golf course.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: So if you're going to lean towards something, I don't
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: have any problems with leaning into those sort of narratives,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: but have an idea of what you're looking for out
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: there in players, A week like this grants us an
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: opportunity that we don't see very often a lot of
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: times after we've seen the golf course one or two
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: times out there on tour, I don't want to see
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: that we quote unquote figured them all out or anything
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: like that. But the sportsbooks, your models, you're even your
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: pricing over there on DraftKings starts to account for course fit.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: At some point it's you know, you see it at
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of this positional courses. You know, Pete Die
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Special Seabuu Kim is always priced up a little bit.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: This If you want to be early out there to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: a narrative, it's the perfect to do so, especially if
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: you don't agree with the popular sentiment out there, because
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: it could be a little bit lower onn So this
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: week my take is a lot different than what other
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: people in the industry seem to think for this course,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: so it's really easy for me to lean.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Into that sort of game theory.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe you're somebody that isn't you know, a probe when
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: it comes to playing vjdfs. You just want to go
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: out there and find a way to get different out
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: there this week.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: You could pick anything.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I think the form way would be a really good
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: way to go out there and do so. If you
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: want to look for some accuracy. Guys like I am,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think that that's a terrible idea. If you
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: just want to look at second shot only it is
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: going to be a wet golf course with dartboards for
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: greens out there. That could be a narrative that you
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: go after. If you want to use the bomber Nay
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: of hell, you could make that when you go out
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: there and you build lineups around. I think building it sets,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: as my guy Tyler Tambalini says all the time over
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: handship and nation, is a really really good idea on
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: a slate like this. So I just wanted to start
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: there because, in my opinion, these kinds of weeks when
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: we have a completely new setup are some of the
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: biggest edges that we have in pgadfs because not only
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: can you play the game theory and go out there
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: your lineups, forcing and leverage out there into your builds,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: you can play the game theory angle against the skill
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: set that everyone thinks is.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Going to get the job done, and you know if
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: it ends up being more of a short course specialist.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: And by the way, it doesn't even just have to
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: be the off the tea play that gets there. Here's
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: my take on the golf course, by the way, because
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I've kind of mentioned it a little bit, I'll just
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: go ahead and get it out there right off the bat.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: I think that off the tee play is like a
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: wash this week. I think being a bomber is always
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: going to be great, but with how soft the course
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: is and with the chance for being lipped clean in
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: place the first few rounds. I want guys that can
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: hit fairways as well, because they're gonna be able to
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: give themselves a perfect line out there into greens, and
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: because of how receptive they are, they're gonna be able
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: to spin pretty much everything from a seven iron and
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: shorter out there, from like seven iron to your wedges.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Some of your longer clubs are probably gonna one hop
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: and stop out there on the greens if and that's
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: a huge iff over here if you're hitting from the fairway.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So my take on the golf course is that off
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the tee, I think being a bomber would be helpful.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: But I also think that being accurate is also going
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: to be helpful around here. So I hate to say
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: that I don't care how people are playing off the tee. Obviously,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Nick Dunlop losing like three strokes per round off the
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: t matters.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: What I am saying, though, is that if you're somebody
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: that gains like a half a stroke off the team,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: it's with your accuracy. And you're also somebody that gains
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: a half a stroke off the team, you do it
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: with your power. I don't really have a lean towards
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: one player or the other. Where I do go out there,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: and I'm going after my player poll this week is
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: with the second shot from one hundred and seventy five
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: yards and in almost every approach shot but the exception
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: of four out there per round is going to be
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: from at most one hundred and seventy five yards. There
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: are some two difficult par threes, there are two maybe
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: even three par fours. We're gonna have over one hundred
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: and seventy five yards and in. But outside of those
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: four maybe five holes around the golf course, the other
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: thirteen are going to be extremely scorable. So I know
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: people were mentioning quote unquote wedges that kind of thing.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a lot of eight and
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: nine irons out there from the players this week as well,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't just say wedges out there for those
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: sort of players. And I've also looking for some bent
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: grass putting as well. We know that it's bent grass.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: You know that they're pretty quick as well from what
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: players have said out there. So if you want to
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: look at some fast bent graft scats as I have
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: out there in my analysis, then that can be the
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: narrative that you go with. But whatever the case may be,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: whatever sort of lean that you're gonna go with for
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the speak, have a reason for it. And I guess
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the one thing I will say about some of those
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: longer players is don't be surprised if out there in
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: GVPS that they're a little bit higher on than you
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: might expect. So like your min bus, you're Keith Mitchell's
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: the guys that hit it a long way off the tee.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not talking about double the ownership on those sort
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: of players, but let's say that they're projected. Let's say
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: a Keith Mitchell, for example, I think I have round
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: like let me actually just bring it up so we
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: don't have to even guess out there with Keith Mitchell,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: but I think I have him around like nine percent ownership.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Let me give you guys an exact number here, a
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: little bit over nine percent ownership out there in my projections.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: If I'm right about the Bombers being the most predominant narrative,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: that he might be like eleven twelve percent owned when
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: we wake up over there tomorrow morning. So again, not
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: talking about like double the ownership out there on some
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: of those narratives, but there's a chance that you see
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: some steam out there on those longer players. So that's
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: what I've got out there from the golf course perspective.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I know, maybe a little bit more time that we
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: spend unusual out there from that perspective, but it's an
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: unusual week out there for the PGA Tour in terms
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: of your weather. We're not going to have a massive
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: edge out there for the first few days, just because
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: tea times are about two hour spread. So your first
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: tea time is at around eleven oh nine Eastern times
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: so and the last tea time over here is going
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: to be at one ten pm, so only two hours
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: from the first to the last tea time, which doesn't
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: give you much of a spread at all to go
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: and find any sort of a weather edge. Maybe for showdown,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: because you can be very specific over there. In Showdown,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: you might be able to find a slight edge out
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: there for maybe the last two to four rounds, But
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: out here on Thursday, I don't see a big edge
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: when it comes to the showdown perspective. Wins are pretty
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: flat the entire day. They're starting around noon. The temperatures
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: are also going to be pretty consistent, and if you
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: wanted to be super nitpicky, like, sure, it could be
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: a little firmer and faster out there for the last
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: hour or so, but it's only a two hour spread
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: out there from And that's the most extreme example that
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: you can find in the field.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Most tea times and groups are only going to be
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: spread off by like a half an hour to an
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: hour at the very.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: Most in most cases.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So weather for showdown not going to be a big
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: factor tomorrow. I think they're going to shoot the grass
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: off this golf course. They can see a lot of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: low scores out there with the receptive greens, not a
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: whole lot of rough out there from what I've heard.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Pin locations going to be a big factor here because
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: this golf course does have a lot of slope to it,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: But the first round of the golf course, they're not
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: going to go overboard when it comes to that kind
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: of stuff. They're not going to use the Sunday pin
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: locations out there on a Thursday when it's the first
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: time that these guys have seen this kind of a track.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: So Thursday I think is a washout. I don't see
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: any sort of an edge over that two hour window.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: And then if we go over here to the NEAM model.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: On Friday, it looks like it's going to be rainy
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: early in the day, but just like they're doing over
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: there for Thursday, they're not starting until eleven, so the
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: rain is supposed to kind of stop by then. Maybe
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: they have some cleanup to do on the golf course
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: where they have to move backlock like an hour and
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a half, that kind of thing. They should still be
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: able to finish if that's the case, And the temperatures
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: look pretty flat. It's a little bit cooler though what
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: you had over there for Thursday, so topping out at
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: about sixty degrees as opposed to the seventy five that
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: you have for tomorrow.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: So I think.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Conditions in general are going to be a little bit
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: harder because not only do you have those cooler temperatures,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: but also a little bit more wind than what you
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: had there for Thursday. And we'll look at a few
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: of the other models for Friday, just because it's a
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: little bit further out, maybe not as consistent or as
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: reliable a forecast when it's that far out. You can
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: see this GFS model, which is fully loaded in for Friday,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: is calling for rain early in the day, and then
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: as the day goes on, pretty much right about when
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: they're going to start, it tapers off and then the
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: winds start to kick up. So maybe you want some
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: later starters on Friday, just based on this GFS forecast
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: that we're looking at. But that's only one of like
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the four or five models here. In fact, if you
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: go over here to the ECM model over here on Friday,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: it's calling for the exact opposite. It's calling for the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: storms to come in a little bit later on in
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: the day, which would actually favor some of the earlier
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: starters over there on a Friday's round. So I'm not
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: playing the weather at all out there in my lineups.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Last week, I told you I put ten percent out
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: there in either direction out there for my lineups. This
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: week it's zero percent. And I'm playing three hundred lineups
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: out there for this kind of week, so a little
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: bit more volume than what I'm used to out there
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: for any given week. Because with that course stuff that
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I was talking about before, where I think that a
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: lot of people are convinced that they know what's going
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: to happen for this golf course that I want to
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: leverage against that right, if everyone is just so sold
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: that they know it's going to play this exact way,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: then I'll go out there and zig while everyone else
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: is going out there and zagging, and see if I
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: can go out there and get some low owned plays.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm doing out there. From the weather perspective,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: really not much out there in my exposure. We'll be
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: tracking the weather out there tomorrow to see if perhaps
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: there's something that we can learn from out there for
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: rounds two through four, but as of right now, nothing
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: that I see out there personally, and rounds three and
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: we might not have the same threesome format, but because
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: they already have the round to tea times made, it's
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be the same thing out there for Friday. So
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: when we get to the round two shoedown stream out
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: there tomorrow nights, Unfortunately, we're probably not gonna be looking
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: at much of a weather edge.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: That rain could change things up a little bit, but
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not counting on it as of break.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: Now, let me bring up my projection.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: So what we're gonna do next, just talk through some
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: of the ownership and game theory, and of course any
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: of the player pulled deep dives that you want. So
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: this is a spreadsheet where we can go through some
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: of the ownership.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: Towards the top, We're.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Gonna go through a few players that I'm using just
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to give you some perspective and what I'm looking for
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: in players. And you know this isn't a show. We're
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: gonna get a whole bunch of picks in plays. It's
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be a lot more process based over here on
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: this channel, which is what you're always gonna get over
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: there with the ship at Nation, but also something that
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I preach over there in the content that I do
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: on my YouTube channel gs loop DFS.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: But we are going to go through a few plays
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: down towards.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: The bottom just to show you what I'm thinking when
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I'm getting too plays. You don't necessarily have to go
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: out there and use them yourself. If you agree with me,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: then by all means, go out there play them in
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: lineup to go out there and get that leverage. But
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: it's more so the thought process that I want you
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: to take from the segment. But any sort of deep
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: dives that you want, go ahead and let me know
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: down to chat. I've got all the shots gained metrics
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to go out there and look at we can look
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: at last twenty four rounds, so the last month or
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: so out there on tour, how these guys have been playing.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: We take a look at the last twelve measured rounds. E.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Then history is pretty useless, so we'll probably skip that
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: tab just because it was at a different golf course.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: But we can look at some recent form over here
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: as well. So any of that, go ahead and let
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: me know, but catch up on chat see what's.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Going on, or we leave off course. Looks rad?
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I've never played PCC, but from everything you've
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: told me, seems like it's gonna be an absolute blast.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: So have some fun out there. Man, you're not a
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: fan of the new cut. I tend to like it,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: but hey, everyone likes different things, right. Can't blame you
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: for that, Michael says, and a few minutes late, but
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: you made it better have to have you late than never.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: No cut is I would rather have a cut, but
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: it doesn't make that much of difference for me. Primo says,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: what's up, bro, what's going on yourself?
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: I'm doing well.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I played some golf today, played with a few buddies
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: over their twelve holes.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: Before I had to get out of there.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: I didn't play particularly well, but it was driving it well,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: so I at least had that going for me. We're
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: in Philly, so a cheese steak could make some sense.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Yet a little cheese steak, HOGI, I see what you're
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: doing right there?
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: What's going on? Ross? Welcome on? In a no cut?
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: Does that change the lineup? Build? See? Let's talk about it. So.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: I know some people don't seem to like the no
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: cut stuff, which I get it right. There's drama involved
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: with the cut. It's an extra sweat over there on Friday.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: I'm all for it as well.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: But it does change the strategy just a little bit
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: because you don't have the missed cut equity. You can
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: still have guys finishing in like fortieth this week, but
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: if they make twenty twenty five birdies, that could be
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: enough to get there in dfs and not necessarily like
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: the five to twenty five dollars GVP. You're probably not
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: gonna take down like one hundred k two hundred k
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: contest with somebody that's finishing in fortieth. But if you're
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: entering a single injury against a couple hundred other people
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: and you've got three of the top five something like that,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: then one guy who's like in fortieth that kind of thing,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: you can still take down the GPP if that guy's
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: going out there and making a lot of birdies. So
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: what I normally do to change my process, Mike, is
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I weigh birdie or better percentage a little bit more,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: just because we know that they have four rounds and
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: on DraftKings we mentioned it a lot out there. For
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the showdown perspective, that's all about how many birdies you make,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: those streaks bogey free round extra points that you can
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: add on top of that. If you're going out there
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: and making a whole bunch of pars, maybe making like
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: three birdies one bogie out there per round, it might
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: look okay from your placement, but you're not going to
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: do very well with your DraftKings lineup. But those sort
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: of guys out there, so I am looking for the
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: more aggressive players in this sort of format because we
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: have those four guaranteed rounds, I will take a lot
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: more risk on those sort of guys. And I'm down low, Mike.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna have a few examples of those kind
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: of players for you that are high upside high birdie makers,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: good part five scores as well. To go out there
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: and get you those DraftKings points. You live here, he said,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: get to Angelou's in South Philly next year for aronomic.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: I may be up there for the PGA Championships. See
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: it then, and we'll have to hit up Angelou's when
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: I do. So it's going on ross, he says. You
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: know this stream is about the Truest, But before you end,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: curious if I played anything for Myrtle Beach.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: So, I'm always willing to go over some Myrtle Beach
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: stuff too. Still PGA DFS, different event, but the same
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: kind of thing. This week, I haven't done a whole
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: bunch of DFS, man, but I did put some outrights
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: out there.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: I'm not like.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: An expert on the golf course when it comes to
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: the Dunes club that they're playing this week, but it's
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: kind of long, like it's a sneaky long part seventy one.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: It's like seventy five hundred yards. So unlike the event
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: that we're talking about here, the Truest, where I'm not
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: so sold out there on that Bomber narrative. I would
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: want to play some longer players over there for the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Myrtle Beach Classics. So, and you said any insight like
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: in general there maybe some bombers.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Then I'll show you the weather real quick too. Ross.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: You can always take a quick.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Little one minute decide to show you the weather for
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Myrtle Beach, because it is something I was looking at.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: They're not playing at TPC of Myrtle Beach, by the way,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: but it is relatively close to where they're playing this
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: actual event. Each triple R for tomorrow looks like the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: AM guys could be getting a little bit of an advantage.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: And then over there on Friday, I believe it might
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: even flip. Yeah, they've got some rain there in the morning.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: It does look a little bit windier in the afternoon,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: but it's gonna be warmer and they're not gonna be
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: playing through any sort of storm.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: So hmmm.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: I haven't played in any DFS lineups, but like maybe
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: going after some AM guys and if you're playing Showdown
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: for that, for sure play the AM guys tomorrow. That's
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: a I entered some prop stuff over there from Myrtle Beach,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: some overs on birdies out there for the AM players,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: so I would definitely be using them in showdown.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: If I was playing that.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let me know if you need anything else. By
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: the Bay Rossa, I know I didn't give you a
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: whole bunch there, but I tried to give you some
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: of the spark notes for myrtle there. Who is my
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: favorite accuracy player, So Russell Henley would have been one
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: of them. But you know, just guys that ranked all
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: an accuracy percentage. It's not even so much.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: That that I like.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: And we'll get back to that because I was mentioning
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: that a little bit earlier. It's not like I really
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: care about off the tea that much. Off the tea
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: is not what's gonna win and lose you around a
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Philly cricket club. It's the second shot in the putting
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: in my opinion. So accuracy guys that I'm using would
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: be a Russell Henley. But it's not even so much
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: that the accuracy is why I'm getting onto a Henley.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: It's that he's been nutted with the irons. It's that
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: he's been really good putting over the last few months.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: It's that he's won or even nearly one at golf
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: courses that I think you're going to play pretty similar
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: to what we have this week. I think that if
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: if you're looking at like the bomber versus accuracy thing,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: that you might be looking at the wrong thing. In
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: my opinion, those other categories are what you want to
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: focus on. But yeah, Russell Henley would be an example
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: of that sort of player, justin Rose. He's somebody that
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I bet this week over there at sixty six to one.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: He'd be an accuracy guy that I'm getting over the
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: field on. But again, it's it's not that driver that's
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: really getting me onto those sort of players. It's the
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: other stuff that they do that is far more important.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, Am I playing McInroy or fading? Not
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: going to say anything definitive with my player pool here?
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: There is obviously my patron page where you can see
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: exactly what I'm doing for my player pool. But he's
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: thirty five percent owned. So we're gonna talk about the
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: game theory here. In a second, I'll give you some
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: of the pros and cons to doing it either way,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: because I don't think it's as simple as saying that
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: he's highly owned. He's somebody you should go out there
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: and fade. I think it's a lot more nuanced than that.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: So I'll give you guys an idea in a second.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: And then he said, thoughts on can't lay. Dude hasn't
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: won in a while, but he's trending somewhat. Yeah, you
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: can see him on there. He is a core play
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: for me, so kind of like Russell Henley. I love
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: him this week. I think he's trending the right way.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: He's got really good Ben Grass putting numbers. That's part
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: of the reason I really like him. Then if you
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: take a look at the approach stats from one hundred
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: and seventy five yards and in, he's top twenty five
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: in every proximity bucket this year. So I like the
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: way that he's trending. As you said, I like the
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: agronomy numbers. I like that birdy percentage for Patrick Cantlay.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: He's been making a lot of birdies here in twenty
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: twenty five. All of that plus the twenty to one
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: number to win I thought was pretty favorable considering the
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: kind of course fit that he has here. Yeah, give
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: me some Patrick Cantlay. But let's talk about this ownership
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: up top. So any other player chep fives that you
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: guys want feel free to go ahead and let me know.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: We can go through some stats, which by the way,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: with can't Lay, just to show you why I like
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: him so much, gaining a stroke per round on approach,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: that is exactly what we want to see. And this
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: short game, which is usually a strength of his, has
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: actually been just under a stroke lost per round over
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: those last twelve measured rounds. So yeah, give me some
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: regression with Patrick Cantlay. Now this ownership up top, let's
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: talk about Rory McRory because he's really in a tier
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: of his own when it comes to the ownership, and
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: you could see in my projections on my Patreon page,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: I've got him at about thirty five percent, So I've
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: got just over a third of lamps getting to Rory McClory.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: And the easy argument for wanting to go out there
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and fade him would be if you fade a thirty
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: five percent on player and he doesn't get into the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: top ten, well, then you're looking at just sixty five
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: percent of the field that you're playing against for the
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: rest of your lineups. Now, the other side of it
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: is that Rory mcbray just won the Masters, He's won
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: multiple events this year, he's been like, by far, the
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: best player that we've had on the PGA tour out
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty five, and that he's only twelve grands.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: And you might say you're crazy for saying only twelve thousand,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: but you would argue with the kind of form that
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: he's had that he's pretty much on the same level
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: as a Scottie right now. That Scotty, I mean, we've
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: seen him at thirteen thousand, even fourteen thousand dollars out
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: there for a Sunday showdown slate before that. Rory should
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: be a lot more expensive than this twelve thousand dollars.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: So the argument for playing Rory would be that he's
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: too cheap. I definitely agree with that out there in
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: a week like this, and that even if you use
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Rory McElroy and you're taking a thirty five percent owned player,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: that's not a death sentence. You still have five of
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: their players to go out there and get that leverage
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: that you need. And because you're taking a more expensive
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: player and you're forcing in some salary towards the top,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: it is going to force you down to that six
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: k range and the ownership is going to be blacked
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: out here over here for some of these six K
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: range players. But you can see like a Cam Davis
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: is two percent owns, guys like a Grazman who we're
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: going to talk up later about four percent owns. And
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you guys an idea of why
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for those higher upside players down low. If
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: you're using a Rory, then maybe taking another spend up
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: here ninety five hundred and above out there for your
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: second man in maybe just nine randon above out there
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: for your second man in. With a Rory mcabray lineup,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have to play some guys that are sub
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: five percent owns by default because they're down there in
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: that six k range. So I actually think that's a
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: positive out there with Rory mcbray. I mentioned last week
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: with Scotty that sure it was gonna be super super
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: high owned out there in GPPs, but because of what
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: it forces you on too in the six k range,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: that I actually thought you can make lineups with lower
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: ownership and lower product ownership out there with Scotty than
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: what you could do with lineups without him. And I
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: can tell you last week as somebody that played Scotty
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: in sixty five percent of my lineups.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: That that was one hundred percent true. I had thirty
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: eight of my one hundred and fifty lineups as six
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: of six, so about five x the field when it
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: came to my six of six rate, and about half
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: of them were Scotty Scheffler lineups where my second man
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: in was like maybe eight grand, like maybe like eighty
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: two eighty three hundred dollars at the very most, and
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: then a bunch of six K, six K slap dicks
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: And guess what happened. Those slap dicks played really well
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: last week. Now, is that gonna happen every single time?
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Absolutely not. But just because you're playing a Rory McRoy
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: and he's thirty five percent notes does not mean that
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: your lineup construction has to be a chocky lineup construction,
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: because I can guarantee you that if you are creative
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: about how you go out there and put together that lineup,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: that you can find a way to get a loaned
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: combination out there with Rory McRoy at You want to
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: be very intentional with your six K seven K players
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: when you're playing that sort of lineup, because you can't
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: just use anyone down low, there are going to be
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: chockey guys down there in that six k range that
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: for example, Tom Hogy, who I saw a few people
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: in chat already kind of point out, and Eric Cole
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: here as well, are close to ten percent ownership out
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: there in GPPs. So maybe they're not the kind of
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: guys you want to play in that sort of lineup
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: where you're trying to.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Actively leverage towards the bottom end of the board. But
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: those are the pros and cons for a rory, right
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: you fade them. It's thirty five percent leverage. That is
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: a ton rate there. Unfortunately, the other side of it,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: the pros to it are also just as strong. So
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: you know, I know that somebody asked right what I
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: was actually doing on it, But you guys got to remember,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: I do have a website that I run for myself,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: so it wouldn't be entirely fair for me to go
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: out there and completely spill the beans on every single
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: play that I'm either getting to or not getting to
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: for any given slate. But I hopefully I give you
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: guys a little game plan, then give you guys, you know,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: some of the pros and cons to make that decision
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: for yourself, because I don't think that there's necessarily a
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: right or wrong answer there, Like as you could see,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I outlined some of the reasons out there for either
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: side of that argument. Just to pick a lane and
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: run with it. The one thing I would say that
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: you shouldn't do out there with Rory this week is
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: play them in like forty percent of lineups, like going
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: out there and matching the field, unless you're a win
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: fifty max player who has enough lineups to go out
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: there and play with that sort of portfolio get leverage
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: on Rory. So play them in like fifty percent plus
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: of your lineups, or play them in none, go out
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: there and fully fade them. That would be my main
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: piece of advice. And if you're only entering like twenty
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: lineups or you know, five to ten lineups out there
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: in GVPS and you're gonna play Rory, consider walking them
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: out there into those five to ten lineups. If you're
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: going to try and really make it counts out there
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: with somebody that's thirty five percent owns the only way
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: to really get leverage against the field, but just ten lineups,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: especially like if you're going against one fifty maxers like
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: myself out there in that sort of contest is if
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: you lock somebody like Rory into every single lineup that
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: you're using.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: So that's what I'll say about Rory up top.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Obviously a very polarizing player, I would say this week,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: I've heard a lot of arguments four and against them
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: out there in lineups, and you know you're gonna have
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: to make that decision for yourself, I would say, alrighty.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: So let's talk about the rest of the ownership up here.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: So outside of Rory, it is pretty flat for these
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: guys in the nine to ten k range. You have
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: guys like more Kaba shaff Ley, it closer to eighteen
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: nineteen percent. I've got GT at about seventeen and a
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: half percent, So no one here over that twenty percent mark.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Oh bear slightly lower ownership because this form maybe isn't
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: a shark some of those other guys around him, guys
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: like Kenley as well, right, maybe a little bit more
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: overlooked than some of the other guys around him. But
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: even can't lay who's your highestoned player out there in
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: this range? Is only about on twenty percent owns. So
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: if you have guys in this range that you like that,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: you wanted to go out there and bed out right
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: your quote unquote guys on a week like this, don't
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: be afraid to go out there and use them in lineups.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: They're not the thirty five percent ownership that you have
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: there with a Rory wherever becomes a little bit more
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: of a game theory decision whether you're going to go
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: out there and use them out there in your lineups.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: When you're comparing a.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Twenty percenter to a fifteen percenter over there with Obert,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: this means next to nothing to me. And I think
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the best way to show this to you guys is
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: it's a thirty percent difference in ownership, about thirty three
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: percent difference in ownership out there from Obert. It can't
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: lay right plus thirty three percent a plus thirty three
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: percent difference out here on Let's say, like a five
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: percent owned player, is them going from five to six
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: and a half percent owned, right? And I think most
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: people when they're playing pgdfasts right, they're looking at like
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: a six or seven K range player if somebody was
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: five percent owned, if somebody was six and a half
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: percent owned around them, they wouldn't care about that at all.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Because you shouldn't care about that. It's only a one
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: and a half percent difference in terms of the raw
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: actual difference. That change fifteen percent to twenty percent is
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: the same on a relative basis, and I think a
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: lot of people don't realize that when it comes to
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: the up top, and I actually kind of understand the
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: argument against that too, is because you actually are playing
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: against all those lineups out there in the GPP, right,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: It isn't on a relative basis that you necessarily have
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: to compare them. But guys that go bear can't lay
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: like if you like, can't lay go out there and
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: play them. You like in Obeer this week, you go
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: out there and play them too. Same thing with your Xanders,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: your more commas. I think where you really want to
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: start considering this ownership even more is when you get
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: down into that eight K range is where I'm really
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: starting to think about that game theory, and then especially
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: in that six and that seven K range. So that's
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: mostly the case there in the nine K range ak range,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: as I said, it starts to spread out a little
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: bit more. You've got guys like mmbou lee at closer
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: to eight percent ownership. Sun Jay McNeely also not getting
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of steam, whereas you're Daniel Berger's or
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Corey Connors at about sixteen percent ownership, even a Victor
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: how Into he's at the bottom end of that nine
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: k range, but getting a little bit of steam. For
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: that portion of the board outside of like three guys
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: over here, it's relatively low in too players and some
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: even sub ten percent onto players, which we don't always
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: find over there in that eight k range. So I'm
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: still using my Kegan Bradley's of the world that might
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: be getting a little bit more steam, but there are
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: some lowan gems in my opinion on this portion of
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: the board, they're definitely worthy of some consideration. And when
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: I'll give you guys that you don't have on here
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: as a yes right now would be a math ocnely.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: I'm playing them at sub ten percent ownership. We've seen
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: them compete in events like the Genesis this year, another
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: signature field event of course, that I really didn't even
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: think fit fit is game like. I like them at
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: courses that aren't super off the tea heavy and if
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: my narrative this week is that it's about the iron
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: play from one to seventy five, and in he's better
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: the closer he is to the hole when it comes
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: to his irons. He's also a really good bent grass
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: potter you could see gaining close to about a half
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: a stroke round. Then yeah, I'm gonna use that kind
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: of guy as my lowan to pivots this week because
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: he fits that sneaky narrative that I'm going out there
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: and trying to play. So that's an example of using
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: that game theory on this portion of the board, above
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: this portion, above this AK range. Though I don't want
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: to say I'm ignoring ownership, because there are some game
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: theory pivots that and one really big notable game theory
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: pivot that I'm making on a week like this. The
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: eight K range is where I'm really starting to incorporate
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: that though. So on top of that, guys do not
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: play Jason Day this week. As you guys can see
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: here he did withdraw from the event, which I think
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: you might see a few slapticks that still go out
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: there and throw them into lineups. But Patrick Rodgers' replacement
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: down here at the bottom has not been given a
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: price quite yet, so we are only going to have
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: what is it seventy one players that actually have a
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: price tag this week, not going to make a massive
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: impact when it comes to your strategy or anything like that,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: But do you remember out there for a round two
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: showdown that you're probably going to be able to play
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: Patrick Rodgers for that kind of format. So unfortunate that
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: they didn't go out there and squeak them into the
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: player poll last second, because if they did, he would
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: be royally under owned. Because I had been checking all
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: week to see if they'd go out there and add
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: them to the mix ins. They never did, so I'm
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: sure that if they had gone out there and done
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: it late and there were probably sites that wouldn't have
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: caught that, and you might have gotten like a sub
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: one percent of Patrick Rodger's over there this week, but
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: unfortunately did not get our wish over there. From that,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Outside of that, towards the top though you can see
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: the rest of the ownership numbers here, it's a you
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: can still play your guys, so like, for example, if
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: you like a Victor Hobland, you like a Jordan Speed
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: at eighteen point six percent, I'll tell you that between
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Hobland and Speed that at least one of these two
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: players is out there in my player pool. So it's
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: not like I think it's an automatic fade at the
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: sort of numbers. It's just that there's maybe a little
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: bit more opportunity to get that different differentiation and get
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: that leverage to the field. Some of the guys that
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: are a little bit cheaper here down here in this
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: seven K range is where the ownership really really starts
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: to spread out. And I am gonna bring up my
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: ownership on another tab just so I can kind of
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: point out some of the chalk in this range. I'm
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: going to avoid giving specific numbers just because they do
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: have to keep some of that for my paying members.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: But guy said Wyndham Clark are getting some steam. I've
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: got him over ten percent ownership out there in a
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: week like this. I've got justin Rose who you can
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: see the ownership there at about eleven percent out there
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: in a week like this. Keith Mitchell getting some steam.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: I know we mentioned that one a little bit earlier
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: at Taylor Pendrith getting some steam out there in GPPs
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: as well. Those kind of guys are eight percent plus
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: owned out there in every single case, some of them
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: ten percent plus os out there in GPPs, you've got
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: players in this seven k range, like, for example, I'll
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: just appointment out here will z al Torres, who's five
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: percent if not sub five percent owned. Out there in
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: some of those GPPs, you've got Rasmus Hoygard, who I've
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: got it sub five percent owns and now he's exactly
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: seven grands, so he started to get down towards the
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: bottom end of that seven k range. But when you
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: have players that are four to six percent owned priced
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: around guys that are twelve to fifteen percent owns, unless
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: you really like that player that's going to be twelve
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: to fIF teen percent owns, you're almost always want to
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: be taking some of these ownership pivots. And it doesn't
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: have to be that you're going to the most extreme
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: pivots in this portion of the board, the guys that
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: are closer to that three to four percent ownership mark.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: But even going to just some slightly lower owned to
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: players that still project out well is a really good
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: idea out there in contest. So just to get back
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: to the tab where we can all share this together here,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: like you're going to see guys like Aux shap Patia,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: for example, I've got it slightly lower ownership than some
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: of the other guys around him, and like, for example,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: he's lower owned than are Taylor Pendrith here, and I've
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: got him at about the same projection is what you
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: have there with Pendrith. So you know, if I think
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: that Pendrifth might even get steamed up a little bit
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: because of that Bomber narrative going around, then there's a
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: chance that this ownership difference between Okhay and Pendrith is
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: even larger.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: Than what I end up thinking.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: Now, you don't want to be doing this like when
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: it's like a one percent difference out there between player
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: to player, like we mentioned before, you want it to
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: be a significant difference out there from option to option.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: So maybe like a five percenter compared to somebody that's
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: closer to like ten percent. But those are the kind
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: of game theory pivots that you want to be making
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: when we have no idea what to expect from this
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: golf course. And I mean we talk about this every
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: single week out here on tour, even when we know
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: the golf course that's at hand. But in the game theory,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: in getting leveraged versus the rest of the field is
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: even more so important to go out there and do
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: when nobody knows what to expect from the venue. So
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: that's why I look for a lot of my ownership
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: pivots on this portion of the board, and acce Batia
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: would be an example of that.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: Sort of guy.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: And it's not like he has the best form or
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: anything like that, but if you go to the last
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: twenty four measured rounds, he's gaining on approaching, he's gaining
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: with the putter, and when you zoom in on the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: proximity buckets for a NAXA, he's gaining from one hundred
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: and seventy five yards and then in most of those
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: proximity buckets, I think one of the buckets from what
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: to seventy five and in he was a slightly worse
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: than average player for the rest of them top fifty
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: out there on the PGA Tour. And then the putter
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: has also been a bright spot lately. And if I
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: think this is going to be a little bit of
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: a putting contest, a little bit of a birdie fest
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: around this kind of venue, I want guys that are
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: hot with the irons and hot with the putter, and
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: sure the other two cagories could be a little bit better,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: but that's why he's going to be a little bit
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: lower owned than the guys around him. He doesn't have
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: the best form compared to let's say a Ben Griffin
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: who has a win over his last few starts at Pendrith,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: who the form is actually only just about a half
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: a stroke better per round. But that half a stroke
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: difference is going to lead to a pretty decent gap
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: when it comes to that ownership there. And see, so
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: if you guys didn't see my video from earlier this week,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I do like McIntyre still. McIntyre, by the way, is
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: a relatively low and pivot that you can take in
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: that eight k range. So I know he was towards
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the bottom there, so maybe skipped my eyes there at first,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Robert McIntyre pivot that we can throw out
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: there as well. Rose I wouldn't consider a pivot, but
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I still really do like him around this kind of event.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Reason for that, And then we mentioned some of the
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: accuracy first sort of players he fits that Henley Mold
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: really good approach play lately, amazing bent grass putting stats
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: gaining point six strokes bent grass putting per rounds and
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: if you go to the last twelve measured rounds, you'll
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: see that iron play that I was hinting at. He's
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: gaining over point seventy five shot skied approach out there
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: per round and has been solid elsewhere, only losing out
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: there around the green. So give me some Justin Rose around.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: But I think isn't a super off the TA heavy
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: golf course. What else do we have here? So Matti
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: fits another low ones guy they can take here in
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: that six k range. Another example of these low ones
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: players that I'm looking for. Matti fits I thought was
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: a good course fit. If you guys saw my breakdown
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: earlier this week on my channel, he's somebody that's kind
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: of rounding in the form.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: And I used kind of because it's a stretch to
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: say that he's rounding in the form.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: But he has played better his last three four events
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: than he has the last year. Last year it's been
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: like all missed cuts. He has a few top twenty
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: five's lately, so that's why I say he's kind of
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: coming in the forum, but really good bent grass putting
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: stats just like you had there with the Justin Rose,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: And if you remember, that's one of the things I'm
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: looking for this week also iron play from one hundred
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: and seventy five yards and inn. And while he's struggled
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: with the long irons at some of these more difficult
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: venues signature events that you've had this year, Matty Fits
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: has missed cuts or finished in like dead last out
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: there in some of these no cut events. You know
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: where he's been okay this year. And I'll stress okay
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: because as I've been great for Mattic Fits, he's been
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: okay from one hundred and seventy five yards and end.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: So these are the kind of lower uned guys that
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I'm getting to this week that one fit my narrative,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: and of course are going to be lower uned than
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: some of the other guys around them. I've also got
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: a Max Grazeman out there in some lineups, a little
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: bit of a different idea out here with Max.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: This isn't a course fit play with Max Grazerman. This
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: is all about the upside in his burdier better percentage.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: He's a long player off the tee.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: So I guess if you're a bomber guy, you could
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: play Max Graseman and have even more faith in him
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: out there in your lineups. But he's a high birdy
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: guy because of how well he puts the ball, and
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: he's also a player that can take advantage of the
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: par fives and you can see it. I guess an
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: add a little bonus over here. He's the best vent
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: grass putter that we have in the field, gaining just
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: under a stroke per round over there on the vent
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: grass surface. So you know, if I'm running that out
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: there as my narrative for the week, I can get
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: them at sub five percent ownership. These are the kind
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: of pivots I'm taking down here in that six k range.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: It compared to your eric closer Tom Hogies, who I
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: have it closer to six seven say ownership this week,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: that's nearly half the ownership if you get to a Fits,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: nearly half the ownership if you go down to a
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Max Grazeman. And in my opinion, those are the kind
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: of ownership pivots that you should be thinking about on
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: this sort of week. And it doesn't have to be
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Grazman or Matty Fits that you use. There are other
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: guys in this range. They're also low owned. For example,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: like no one's gonna use Homa. Maybe that's for the
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: best because he sucks now. He you know, even lost
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: his caddie at this point. So maybe he's not the
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: best pivot to play down here.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: But like in Adam Scott, maybe he's in a few
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: my bills this week. Maybe I'm hinting at that, maybe
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: a Lucas Glover could make some sense as a pivot.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: Good ball striking stats, right, not the best potter. Now,
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: if you're like the if you're looking at the birdy of.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Better stuff in a putting contest, maybe you don't love
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Lucas Glover here, But there are guys in this range
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: that are guys that aren't terrible players, Like you're going
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: from guys that are better plays. That's why they're chalk
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: out there in contest the guys that are slightly worst plays.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: But it's like comparing shit to shit. Right, you're in
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: the six k range down here for a reason. You're
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: not finding the nine k ten K guys that go
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: bear at this portion of the board. If you have
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: half the ownership on guys that are even competent plays
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: down here in this portion of the board, you should
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: be highly considering making that pivot.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: And then the last guy I'm going to throw out here.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Just to give you some perspective, is what I'm looking
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: for out there, and players, it'd be a Cam Davis,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: who is another one of these high upside players. In fact,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: just to give you an idea of how high upside
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: he is, he's the number three birdier, better percentage player
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: and all the PGA Tour. Number one is Roring, Number
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: two is Scottie Shuffler. Number three is Cameron Davis. So
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for somebody that can go out there
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: and outscore their placement, you're not going to find any
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: better player down here at this portion of the board.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: He's also okayn vent Grass. He is a slight positive
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: out there putting on vent and last week he had
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: one of his better starts of the year out there
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: at an easier golf course. So it's not the best
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: course fit on paper. I mean, I didn't even say
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the same thing with Brazerman other than the putting out
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: there with the vent Grass putting stats, but give me
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: these guys that make a whole bunch of birdies on
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: what should be a soft and gettable golf course. So
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: hopefully it gives you guys a little bit of perspective
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: into what I'm looking for out there and players. And again,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: if you agree with these takes on guys, feel free
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: to go ahead and use them yourself. If you don't, though,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: there are plenty of other pivots you can take at
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: this portion of the board that aren't going to be
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: as mega choky as some of the others. And I'm
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and look at my other sheet once
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: again and show you some of the.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: Chop in this range.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: So for example, down there in that six k range,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I've got EVR as your highest stoned guide that is
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: under sixty five hundred dollars. I've got Michael Thorbjornsen getting
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit more ownership then I would like. Down
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: there in this range, I've got Ryan Gerard I already
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: mentioned Hogi and Cole also getting a little bit of
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: steam there. Outside of those five maybe six players, the
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: rest of the six k range is like two three percenters.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Like especially the bottom end of the six k range,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: you've got a whole bunch of players that you can
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: take a sub three percent if you're starting with a
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: rory lineup and you have to get different off that
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: thirty five percent, and especially if you use another spend
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: up to really force yourself down here in the six
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: k range, You're gonna have plenty of options to go
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: out there and make that happen. So that's what I'll
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: say about the bottom end of the board here. And yeah,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: some ideas for players to go out there and consider
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: as well. Let me catch up on any player pool
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: questions that you've got, then going to hop over to
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: DraftKings for a last second look at some of the
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: DFS stuff. So the thoughts on Brian Campbell. So Campbell's
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: ownership is extremely low, he's also nearly min price, in
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: fact's exactly at that min price of six thousand dollars.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: And if it is going to be a golf course
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: where you don't have to be a bomber off the tee,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: then that would play directly into his skill set. So
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: if you are somebody that's playing that narrative this week,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's the worst idea to play a
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Brian Campbell. Full transparency, I don't think he's my favorite play.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not using him out there in my lineups myself,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: but he's especially like if if you're looking for guys
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: down here to fit that narrative, he's like him maybe
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: a Chris Kirk, maybe a Nick Taylor would be some
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: of your like more positional drivers down low. I'm more
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: on these like high upside guys, kind of like the
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Cameron Davis as the Max Grazeman's of the world. When
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: I get to the player deep dives, could we look
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: up Fagala, Woodland and had Win. Absolutely, so let's start
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: with Thigala. So Figala's price tag is part of the
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: deep dive that we have to do here because there's
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: a reason why he's at sixty nine hundred dollars right now,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: having his best season so far, missing a lot of cuts,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: which isn't really what we're used to seeing from saw Hith. However,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: if we go to the last twelve measured rounds, he's
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: not that far off, like he's gaining on approach. It's
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: the short game that's really been holding a saw Hith back.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: So that price tag is real juicy at sixty nine
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars. I do think that he's gonna get clicked
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: this week just because of that.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: So he's not.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Gonna be like sub five percent owned or anything like
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: that at that kind of number. But I like him
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: quite a bit, especially if you're a large held GPP.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: And then he got what Woodland and Hadwin is the
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: other two? Let's see, so Woodland had to take a
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: week off. My main concern with Woodland would be the
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: health and why he had to withdraw. But before he
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: withdrew with the last event at the Byron Nelson, he
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: was one of my favorite plays for that week. And
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: it's because of this form. He's losing around the green.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: The other three categories that we care about the most
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: this week lights out over here in that six k range.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: So the Gary Woodland deep dive is that he's super cheap.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Stats look amazing. It's just that we have no idea
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: how the health is really holding up for him. And
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: then the last one was who had win It'd be
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: the last one to go through here, So Hadwin losing
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: on approach to losing about point six strokes per round,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: neutral off the tee, gaining around the green, and then
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: losing with the putter.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: Hmmm, he's like a four out of ten.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: The other two are kind of like though mad has
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: been killing these elevated events too, that aren't majors of
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: the players.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, man, I mean Genesis, he popped off. He popped
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: at API.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: If he does it again, I'll be glad because I
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: think he's going to be low owned as well. He said,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Gary withdrawed on us last week. Pittsburgh guy seems like
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: he could be a good fit for this course too. Yeah,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: so I hope that he plays well, just because I'm
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: a huge fan of Gary Woodland.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: But that injury stuff is kind of scaring me.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Man. I'm just I'm not exactly sure why he withdrew.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure if we had an exact word on it.
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: I know it was health based. They said it was
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: some sort of an injury that Cosmo to withdraw, which
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: is why I have some concern.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: He said, you ask draftings support earlier, said Rogers would
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: not be added, Dude, he would have been such a good.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Lowan to play.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: And I can tell you now there will be showdown
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: sites out there that don't put him in their round
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: two stuff. Maybe we can find the edge that way
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: out there on a Lowan Patti Rodgers. And then he said,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: thoughts on Harmon and female see a Brian Harmon. Man,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: He's been playing some golf lately, So to give you
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: the shots gain to Brian Harmon, you could see they're
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: gaining in every category but off the tee, and it
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: is aggressive shots gained out there in all these different categories,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: especially if you're a believer in the shorter course kind
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: of stuff, thinking that you don't have to be a
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: bomber to find success. Brian Harmon's the kind of player
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: that you're gonna see me on and I'll just say it,
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: I'm using them out there in some lineups this week
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: because he fits that narrative that I'm looking for. Then
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: the other one was female, right, female good ball striking
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: stats not so good out there but the short game.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: But Tony Feinw is streaky when it comes to this
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: short game categories. Oftentimes I'll pop out of nowhere to
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: go out there and gain three four shots gained on
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: the greens, and when he does, he's oftentimes in contention
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: to go out.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: There and win.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Bryan Harmon's like a seven out of ten
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: this stat profile, especially because what you guys know, I
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: think about the golf course, I'm not against it at all.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Then yeah, Tony Fenw, I'm always a good ball striking guy,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: always looking for those ball striking candidates. And then he said,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: you know, you're kind of pissed about it.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, me too, man.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: You'd think the DraftKings' intern's going to go out there
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: and add a few guys to the player pool. But
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: I guess we're asking too much from them at this point.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: They haven't set the bar too high when it comes
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: to their expectations. All right, let's talk about this contest selection.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: So I don't have much to say about the contest
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: selection other than that's pretty typical for what we get
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: for these main slates, other than that this might overlay,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: and if it does, it's going to be pretty sweet.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: So this is the three dollars when fifty max something
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: that they've been experimenting on the last few weeks. It's
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: a really good payoffstructure. It's ten percent to first and
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: it's pretty flat afterwards as well. Out there, but the
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: rest of the top ten, and if it overlays you
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: it's see there's still like fifty something thousand injuries that
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: they've got to go out there and get into this.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: So it's less than a halfway full, less than a
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: day out there before lock. This is a contest that
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: all of you should be going out there and max entering.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: And I know now that I set that that's probably
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: going to jump up in entries over the next few hours.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: But it's true.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: It's a good payout structure, but overlays that'll be even
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: better out there for the community. But outside of that,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: you can see I max entered that. I also max
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: entered the Big Drive the Green this week over there,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: but the one fifty max. The rest of my exposure
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: on top of that is all single entries, So one
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars single entries, thirty three dollars, twelve dollars, five
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: dollars single entries, going out there and sprinkling some exposure.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: And for a lot of you guys out there, like
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: your average PGADFS hobbyist, you should be looking at a
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: lot of those single entry contests because you're playing against
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: people that can't win fifty max against you a lot
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: flatter payout structures and what you have in some of
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: those GPPs, and like even this Drive the Green that
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: I'm playing in is super heavy. It's a fourth to
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: first place. That's why if you're gonna want fifty max
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: on a week like this, do it in the three
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: dollars one fifty max. Like that contest is absolutely nutted.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: These kind of contests should be reserved for the pros
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: like myself that are playing these contests every single week
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: that can fully afford to go out there and win
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: fifty max that I have a long term mindset when
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: it comes to banking these things, because unless you're finishing
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: first place or getting you know, second prize over there
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: with twenty thousand dollars, long term, you're gonna be a
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: loser in these sort of contests, and not even just
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: a loser, you're going to be a big loser. And
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: these sort of contests because they have some of the
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: highest break of the GPPs that they have on the site,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: and you have to beat a lot more people than
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: what you have in those other contests. Right, it's a
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: lot harder, and it's it's pretty intuitive, but I'll point
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: it out just in case it wasn't. It's a lot
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: harder to beat fifty thousand other people than it is
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: to beat like a couple hundred people in a single entry.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: And sure you might have less chances to go out
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: there and take it down, but a lot of people
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: out there that are watching content like this aren't even
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: won fifty maxing a contest like this. For example, they'll
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: take twenty lineups in this contest one hundred dollars, put
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: it out here into the big five dollars GPP into
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of times, you're just burning that money on
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: fire because you're playing against one fifty maxers like myself.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: You're playing against fifty thousand entries with just a small
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: portfolio of lineups. I would much rather people watching this
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: go out there and take that one hundred dollars, or
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: there's twenty lineups that you might put in the five
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: dollars and just give me one hundred dollars single entry,
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: or enter the thirty three dollars single entry, twelve dollars
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: single century, five dollars cingleunury, and that's fifty dollars right there,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: And maybe you can find the secondaries for the thirty
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: three dollars twelve and five single entries, and you can
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: do one hundred dollars that way and go out there
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: and enter lineups, and that way you can still have
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: a bunch of lineups, or you can still have in
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: that case, six lineups out there with your one hundred
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: dollars if you double it up out there on those
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: smaller GPPs.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: But that is a much. It's not even close. It's
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: like a ten times better strategy long term than going
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: out there and entering these big GPPs.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: So if you have the bankroll for it, if you're
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: somebody that's willing to have the ups and downs that
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: are included with entering some of these big GPPs, then
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: go for I do. That's this is my thing. I
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: play pgadfs every single week. I've got some big weeks
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: that I have every single year, and I have a
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: lot of weeks where I lose money out there on
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: those sort of contests. I'm super transparent about that. I
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: used to do review shows every single week where I
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: showed exactly how much I was winning and losing every
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: single week. Those kind of contests, you kind of got
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: to know what you're signing up for before you go
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: out there and enter them. Itt Maybe you didn't know
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: that about entering them. Maybe you're new to the space,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: or you hadn't really thought about the payout structures of
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: some of these different kind of contests. And by the way,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: this same trap is even worse when it comes to
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: the top end payout. It's a little bit more than
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: a fourth that they're giving out there to first place,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: and I mean, look how far it drops off after
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: third place. You're down to the second place of the
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: five dollars GPP and to max enter this for twenty
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: five dollars, right, it's nearly four thousand dollars that you're
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: going out there and entering. So unless you have that
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: sort of BANKRLL like I mean, if I wanted to
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: this week, I could go out there and max enter this.
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: Right, I've got twelve grand in my DraftKings account right now,
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: I'm not doing that.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: I don't see a reason to go out there and
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: do so so with this kind of payout structure. Now,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: if it was a million dollar contest and it was
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand in the first place, and you know
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: second through tenth were reasonable when it comes to that
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: payout structure, then maybe I would go out there and
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: max enter that. But you're not gonna see that for
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: me on a week like this in terms of lineup construction.
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: This week, it is all about the lineup, all about ownership.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: For me. I'm not playing weather at all, which is
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: the two hour spread on tea times. I might be
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: going out there and stacking skill sets and some of
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: my single entries like maybe taking a bomber lineup, maybe
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: taking a lineup with just accuracy guys, maybe taking a
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: lineup with just guys that are good bent grass putters.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: But a majority of my lineups is just making sure
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: that I have enough leverage out there involved, So to
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: show you that we're gonna build a line up here
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: together that is, you know, let's assume it's out there
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: for the big twenty five dollars GPP, that we're just
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: going over there for the contest selection segment. Let's build
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: a lineup for that. So let's do one with Rory,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: and then we're gonna do one without Rory afterwards. So
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: the one with Rory, the reason why I want to
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: do this is just to show you where if you
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: take him plus another spend up, it kind of forces
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: you towards.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: The bottom end of the boards. So I'm gonna throw
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: in a Rory.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Then I'm gonna throw into Patrick Can'tley as my second
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: man in I'm not playing Rory this week. I guess
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: I'll just say it flat out. I'm fading them this week.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: If it burns me, it burns me, so be it.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not playing a thirty five percent once player that
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: I think is a loser and doesn't fit the golf course.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: So if it's start with super Choky Rory as our
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: first man in, let's go with Can'tley as our second man.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: In super Chalky, I get twenty percent as your second
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: man in here.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: This isn't the end of the world if you want
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: to start with these two players.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: I obviously am not gonna have this exact combination out
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: there into any sort of GPPs this week. But if
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: you did, you could still get all the different differentiation
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: that you need out there with your last four spots.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Because you can see over here now we're down to
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: just seventy one to twenty five remaining per player, So
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have to have like one more seven k
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: guy that you go out here and throw in here.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: But maybe you avoid the Justin Roses that are like
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: twelve percent owns. Maybe you avoid some of the guys
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: that are closer to like eight to ten percent owns
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: as well, and you consider a pivot like a tony
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: feet now instead where you're getting slightly lower ownership and
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: you're getting somebody that is sub seven percent owns instead
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: of taking let's say a chalkier player like a Pendrith
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: or even Botsia.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: I've got Boti at like seven percent.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's where you force in a lower uns will
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Zaltaurus to go out there and offset some of that ownership.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: So it's not who you play, right.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: You can use Rory even at thirty five percent, as
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: long as you're making these kind of ownership decisions further
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: down the board. So you know, Erasmus would be a
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: super low owned player. Now, what I don't like about
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: using Rory and then especially like can't lay as the
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: second man in if you're gonna use Rory is it does?
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: It does kind of force your hand down here. You're
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: not able to play some of the better plays in
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: the seven K range because of the kind of ownership
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: that they have behind them. But it's not impossible to
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: go out there and make that kind of lineup work.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: So that would be a Rory McInroy lineup where you're
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: really getting most of your differentiation down towards the bottom
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: end of the board. The other aspect would be if
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: you went off of a Rory McRory, you are going
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: to be a little bit more balanced and some of
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: your leverage might come in the eight k range in
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: this sort of lineup. So let's start with A Xander
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: as our first man. In.
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: Second man in, we're going to use a Henley.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: It's this is going to be partial leverage there, right, Like,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: even he's a little bit lower owned than some of
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: the other guys around him, we're going to throw into
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: McNeely to this lineup. They're eighty three hundred dollars, also
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit lower owned than some of the other
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: players around them, and now we're at about like seventy.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Four hundred remaining.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: So you know, if he really wanted to play ros,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: you could still probably make it work in this kind
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: of lineup as long as your last two players here
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: or where you're getting that sort of leverage. So for
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: the sake of this, we're not going to take justin Rose, just.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: Because if we did that, it was going to force
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: us onto the same sort of pivots that we had
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: in that other lineup. And I want to show you
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: where you can get different on a different portion of
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: the board. So let's go up here and find a
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: pivot in this top end of the seven K range.
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: There's not a lot of guys that I would consider
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: pivots on this portion of the board.
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: But remember Robert, Robert McIntyre that I was talking about before,
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: or he's like five percent owns and he's eight thousand dollars.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: So a way to get different might be to spend
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: up a little bit right from a Justin Rose, get
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: to that sub five percent player, because not only are
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: we getting lower raw ownership going from a Rose to
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: a McIntyre, but it's also changing up our lineup construction
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit. It's making us go a little bit
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: further down the board. Our next man in here, Maybe
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: we go out there and we throw a bot to
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: you there, and then your last man in here.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: As long as they aren't.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Over five to six percent owns, you're probably smooth sailing
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: with this kind of build in any contest that you're entering.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: If this was a single entry, a smaller field GPP
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: as opposed to like that big five dollars twenty five
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: dollars GPP, then you would for sure be fine out
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: there and those sort of contests. So that's what I've
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: got out there from the lineup construction segment, going out
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: there and making sure that you have enough leverage so
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: that first off, you can move up in the GPPs
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: if you end up getting your place correct, but also
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: say that you're not duplicating yourself out there with any
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: other lineups. But that's all I've got out here for
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: the DFS live stream this week. Hopefully I feel a
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: little bit more prepared for all the contests, all the
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: sort of lineups that you're going out there and entering,
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: and I could see you guys out there towards.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: The top of some of those GPPs. It should be
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: a lot of fun.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: We've got a full field event of brand new golf
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: course to go out there and break down, and of
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: course for rounds two through four showdown.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: We're doing the live streams over here on the ship
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: it Nation YouTube as well.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: Those will be after play ends on each day, so
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: make sure to tune to my Twitter my also the
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: ship at Nation Twitter, so you guys can catch exactly
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: when those are going to be starting, But probably around
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: like seven or either eight pm Eastern time is we're
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: gonna have most of those going live, So stay tuned
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: for all that around the weekend. Subscribe you guys don't
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: miss when we're going live for all those different live
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: streams and for the prop and bedding stuff over here tonight.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be go live any second now over there
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: on my YouTube channel. So I'm gonna give myself a
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: few minutes, go get a sip of water, maybe a snack,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: and then we'll be going live over there, going through
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: all the underdog and price pick stuff over there for
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: a round number one, as well as all the matchup
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: bets and other outright bets over there on the sportsbook.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: So if you're somebody that enters the prop stuff over
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: there on like Underdog price Picks, make sure to check
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: out my YouTube channel for that unless gsloopdfs.
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: By the way, if you guys.
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: Don't already follow me or subscribe to my YouTube channel,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: make sure to check that out for even more content
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: out here this year. You've got the course breakdowns over
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: there on my YouTube channel.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: You've got the.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Prop live streams that I do for every single day
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: as well, on top of the showdown stuff that you
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: see over here on ship It. But it's all about guys.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: Best luck with everything that you guys are going with,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: and we'll see if there's any last second questions though,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: before we hop them out of here, he said, you
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: heard that mav is striping it same as Keegans and Hoblin.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: I like to hear that in all three of them.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: I like all three of those players, so good stuff, man,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: he said, Can I rank Connors, Burger or Lowry for
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: a small single entry? So smaller single entry, I don't
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: think we have to obsess about the ownership with those
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: three players, and they're all in good form, especially Connors,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: so he's in the best form of those three players.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: Burger's in solid form himself there. If I had to
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: rank the three, especially taking the ownership out of it,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: because it is in that small single entry and it's
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: not the biggest deal, I would go Burger, Connors than Lowry.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: If I was in a GPP, I would go lower
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: Burger than Connors. Lowery would actually go to number one
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: in a GPP because he's the lowest zones out of
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: those three. But you're in a single entry, so don't
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: worry about it. And he said, thanks, Luke, let's climb
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: those leader words.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: Amen to that.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: It's going on Angelina. Of course France appreciate the kind
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: of words down there. And yeah, big loop gang man,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: let's get after it this week. But that's all I got, guys.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: The best luck out there with all the exposure that
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: you guys are getting to and I see you guys
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: for those live streams throughout the weekend.