Latest / Toadstool Sports / Brewers/Mariners MLB Best Bets Monday 7/21/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 2: Yep.
- 0:02Speaker 1: Inside, I want to kill myself.
- 0:05Speaker 2: We're on OWN seven run over the last two days
- 0:08Speaker 2: after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:11Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:14Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
- 0:15Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
- 0:18Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
- 0:19Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
- 0:23Speaker 2: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not.
- 0:26Speaker 1: A good day at all all in four, I have
- 0:30Speaker 1: not had a good season.
- 0:32Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
- 0:36Speaker 2: slump continues.
- 0:37Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak.
- 0:39Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I
- 0:43Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the bruins.
- 0:45Speaker 1: Arch hate? Is that what it is? I don't even
- 0:47Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
- 0:52Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. I'm not I don't
- 0:54Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man's back with you
- 0:56Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, act
- 1:00Speaker 1: with you as I.
- 1:01Speaker 2: Always am until I die at least oh and two.
- 1:05Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
- 1:08Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:12Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this, I don't know what to
- 1:14Speaker 2: even tell you about this anymore. To the slumps, the
- 1:17Speaker 2: slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:25Speaker 2: point other than potentially.
- 1:27Speaker 1: End it all. What's up, everybody?
- 1:34Speaker 2: That's definitely how I'm feeling. It's towed back with you
- 1:37Speaker 2: better off dead? Monday, July twenty first, Yeah, did not
- 1:42Speaker 2: have a good weekend.
- 1:43Speaker 1: What else is new?
- 1:44Speaker 2: I mean, it wasn't terrible, I guess, but obviously yesterday
- 1:48Speaker 2: was a loss on the show own one. The only
- 1:51Speaker 2: play I gave up was the A's somehow that wound up.
- 1:54Speaker 1: Being a pretty bad blowout loss.
- 1:57Speaker 2: Go figure, Cleveland, the Indians, let's call them, which is
- 2:01Speaker 2: really they should just go back to that name.
- 2:04Speaker 1: Just stop with all this PC bullshit.
- 2:06Speaker 2: Obviously the Indians somehow were able to put up offense
- 2:10Speaker 2: in that game. I liked the trends that were going
- 2:13Speaker 2: on with those starting pitchers. Man, what can you do?
- 2:16Speaker 2: Move on to today? I'm gonna have four baseball players today.
- 2:20Speaker 2: They're all sides, three of them. I'm just gonna go
- 2:22Speaker 2: full game on them. One of them, I am gonna
- 2:24Speaker 2: limit to the first five innings because I think it's
- 2:27Speaker 2: the one that has like the worst bullpen dispair of.
- 2:30Speaker 2: One of the other ones is a bad bullpen disparity too,
- 2:33Speaker 2: But due to the situation, I'm just gonna be like
- 2:36Speaker 2: whatever and just go with the full game on it anyway, So,
- 2:40Speaker 2: and I guess due to having an offensive edge in
- 2:42Speaker 2: that particular game, let's let's get right into it. Man,
- 2:46Speaker 2: major League Baseball usually Monday, I'm like, oh nice, Monday
- 2:50Speaker 2: is a kind of a rest day. It's a day off, right,
- 2:52Speaker 2: and usually only get like several games. But it's like
- 2:55Speaker 2: every baseball team is playing today, I'm pretty sure, except
- 2:58Speaker 2: maybe two teams.
- 3:00Speaker 1: Maybe they're all playing. I don't even know.
- 3:03Speaker 2: No afternoon games though everything starts in the evening. New
- 3:06Speaker 2: series are starting in all these series first came up
- 3:09Speaker 2: as Baltimore in Cleveland. Cleveland's staying at home after beating
- 3:13Speaker 2: the Aas very unfortunately yesterday, Baltimore is coming in from Tampa,
- 3:17Speaker 2: so Baltimore does have travel. Neither team used a lot
- 3:20Speaker 2: of their bullpen yesterday. Neither bullpen is particularly impressive, although
- 3:24Speaker 2: Baltimore's is certainly the worst bullpen, So that's kind of
- 3:27Speaker 2: where you start here. Baltimore does obviously have a better
- 3:30Speaker 2: offense though starting pitching. Tomoyuki Sugano is pitching for the Orioles.
- 3:36Speaker 2: He has really kind of just fallen off after he
- 3:38Speaker 2: was pitching pretty well to start the season his first
- 3:42Speaker 2: major league season. But maybe I have to seede to
- 3:45Speaker 2: the analytics guys here because the analytics guys hated this
- 3:49Speaker 2: guy from the start and I didn't because he was
- 3:51Speaker 2: putting up decent numbers up until very recently. No man,
- 3:56Speaker 2: the underlying like the advanced metrics, say that he's bad. Okay, well,
- 4:01Speaker 2: yeah he has become pretty bad. Four point four to
- 4:03Speaker 2: four ERA one point three whip. All right, fine, I
- 4:06Speaker 2: will concede to concede, not seed maybe both.
- 4:11Speaker 1: Maybe I'll seed.
- 4:13Speaker 2: The analytics guys, I will, I'll plant my seed in them.
- 4:16Speaker 2: But yeah, Sugano has definitely started pitching worse.
- 4:19Speaker 1: He's a little bit better on the road. Four point
- 4:21Speaker 1: oh one.
- 4:21Speaker 2: Roady ra maybe debatably had a little bit of a
- 4:25Speaker 2: bounce back, I guess, going six innings allowing three runs
- 4:28Speaker 2: against the Mets, which is a good offense.
- 4:30Speaker 1: So you do have to hand it to him.
- 4:31Speaker 2: For doing that, although he did walk three guys and
- 4:34Speaker 2: only struck out two, which that doesn't even breach like
- 4:38Speaker 2: analytics sky territory there. Like I look at strikeout walk
- 4:41Speaker 2: ratio as one of the better indicators, So I'm not
- 4:43Speaker 2: liking what I'm seeing out of Sugano in that department
- 4:46Speaker 2: lately either, seven to four strike out walk ratio over
- 4:49Speaker 2: the two starts this month, and the start prior to
- 4:52Speaker 2: the Mets one was a horrible start against a weak
- 4:55Speaker 2: Texas offense where he got nailed for ten hits six
- 4:58Speaker 2: earned runs. Not liking that out of Sugana up against Cleveland.
- 5:03Speaker 2: I believe he did see Cleveland this year earlier in
- 5:05Speaker 2: the season nineteen at bats against them, two sixty three
- 5:09Speaker 2: batting average, but he did allow two home runs eight
- 5:12Speaker 2: forty two ops. So doesn't look like the greatest matchup
- 5:16Speaker 2: necessarily for Sugano either. He's going up against Tanner Biby,
- 5:20Speaker 2: who is still Cleveland's best starter, I guess, but his
- 5:24Speaker 2: numbers aren't really that good this year either, and he
- 5:26Speaker 2: was pretty much their ace, and he's starting to pitch
- 5:28Speaker 2: a little bit worse as well. Four point twenty nine
- 5:31Speaker 2: ERA one point two four whip two point five seventy
- 5:35Speaker 2: RA at home though, so his home ERA is almost
- 5:37Speaker 2: three runs better than his road era, which is crazy.
- 5:42Speaker 2: He did have a good start last time out against
- 5:43Speaker 2: the White Sox, holding him to two runs and five
- 5:46Speaker 2: and two thirds five strikeouts, two walks, but his walk
- 5:50Speaker 2: rate has been not great and he just hasn't been
- 5:52Speaker 2: pitching that well recently. Man his prior to starts, granted, yes,
- 5:56Speaker 2: they were both on the road and against decent offenses
- 5:59Speaker 2: Houston and the Car. He gave up nine runs over
- 6:02Speaker 2: eight and two thirds innings in those two starts, walked
- 6:05Speaker 2: five guys and only struck out eight. So not all
- 6:08Speaker 2: as well with Biby right now, either up against the
- 6:12Speaker 2: Baltimore Orioles. He does have decent numbers in twenty eight
- 6:16Speaker 2: at bats, not a huge sample size, he's tell him
- 6:18Speaker 2: a two fourteen average, but he's allowed home runs to
- 6:21Speaker 2: Henderson and O'Hearn, which they're basically the usual suspects on
- 6:25Speaker 2: Baltimore for the power hitting. He has a lot of
- 6:27Speaker 2: seven sixty seven ops against them.
- 6:31Speaker 1: This is a game that I really want.
- 6:33Speaker 2: No part of Cleveland is the public team, which is
- 6:36Speaker 2: really insane to think about. I guess it's still Cleveland
- 6:40Speaker 2: kind of having that name recognition from how far they
- 6:43Speaker 2: went in the playoffs last year, and because Baltimore just
- 6:45Speaker 2: actually is so bad that they have the worst record.
- 6:48Speaker 2: But man, Cleveland's offense is so bad, I'm rarely gonna
- 6:52Speaker 2: want to have a stake on Cleveland, even though I
- 6:55Speaker 2: know I like I do like I do tend to
- 6:58Speaker 2: like pitching over hitting.
- 7:00Speaker 1: Man, I would probably.
- 7:02Speaker 2: Fade Cleveland in the spot though seventy three percent of
- 7:04Speaker 2: tickets only sixty five percent of the cash the market.
- 7:09Speaker 2: Reid is saying, to fade them, they're up for minus
- 7:10Speaker 2: one thirty to minus one thirty one. Maybe Cleveland doesn't
- 7:13Speaker 2: even deserve to be this big a favorite. Biby might
- 7:16Speaker 2: still be carrying some weight behind his name as well,
- 7:19Speaker 2: but he has certainly been beatable this year as well,
- 7:22Speaker 2: So probably that's the way that I would look at
- 7:24Speaker 2: that game. Certainly not gonna do anything with that.
- 7:26Speaker 1: Robin.
- 7:27Speaker 2: Oh, yes, you're a Royals fan as well. We have
- 7:29Speaker 2: our resident Royals fan. Zach usually joins the chat as
- 7:33Speaker 2: soon as I start talking about the Royals. The Royals
- 7:36Speaker 2: did win yesterday. I actually I don't mind the Royals
- 7:39Speaker 2: today though, which I will talk about eventually. I'm gonna
- 7:42Speaker 2: skip Detroit Pittsburgh and San Diego Miami because I'm gonna
- 7:46Speaker 2: give out plays on both of those games. Boston, my
- 7:49Speaker 2: Red Sox in the middle of a really difficult road
- 7:52Speaker 2: stretch here. Man.
- 7:53Speaker 1: They just had to play at the Chicago Cubs.
- 7:55Speaker 2: The Red Sox did get a win to finish off
- 7:58Speaker 2: the series yesterday with Crochet on the mound. I was
- 8:01Speaker 2: worried about Crochet's numbers against the Cubs, but he did
- 8:03Speaker 2: pitch well yesterday.
- 8:05Speaker 1: Red Sox got the win. Now they're having to go
- 8:07Speaker 1: to Philadelphia.
- 8:08Speaker 2: Philadelphia is staying at home and coming off an ugly series,
- 8:11Speaker 2: an ugly loss to Anaheim. We know Philadelphia's bullpen isn't good,
- 8:16Speaker 2: so we just throw that out there.
- 8:17Speaker 1: Red Sox should have the bullpen edge in this game.
- 8:20Speaker 2: But Philadelphia, I think should still have the offensive edge here,
- 8:23Speaker 2: even though the Red Sox offense is okay. And I
- 8:27Speaker 2: think the Red Sox have a huge starting pitching disadvantage here.
- 8:31Speaker 2: I mean, Walker Buehler's pitching for.
- 8:32Speaker 1: The Red Sox.
- 8:34Speaker 2: This guy, he shouldn't even be in the league anymore, man,
- 8:36Speaker 2: I mean, what are we what are we doing?
- 8:38Speaker 1: Here.
- 8:38Speaker 2: Really, I mean, this guy has never returned from his
- 8:42Speaker 2: major injury issues that he's had. He's been awful since.
- 8:45Speaker 2: Then Red Sox go up and they make this huge
- 8:48Speaker 2: offseason acquisition. Let's get Walker buehler Man.
- 8:51Speaker 1: Yeah, fuck that, fuck you.
- 8:54Speaker 2: Six point one to two ERA this year, I mean really,
- 8:57Speaker 2: one point five to six whip, eight point six sixty
- 9:00Speaker 2: RA on the road. Things are not good for Bueller
- 9:04Speaker 2: and he's been walking a ton of guys last month
- 9:06Speaker 2: seventeen to seventeen strikeout walk ratio five starts. In the
- 9:10Speaker 2: month of June, he had eleven point zero seventy RA.
- 9:13Speaker 2: Is that good? I'm asking two starts this month. The
- 9:18Speaker 2: Red Sox won both of them. I don't even know
- 9:20Speaker 2: how because he had a four to three strike out
- 9:23Speaker 2: walker ratio and those two starts are just still bad.
- 9:26Speaker 2: Gave up two of them runs last outing, and the
- 9:28Speaker 2: Red Sox still want to winning the game against Tampa.
- 9:31Speaker 2: So in one of the games he got a ton
- 9:32Speaker 2: of run support against Washington.
- 9:35Speaker 1: And in the other game he.
- 9:37Speaker 2: At least limited Tampa's run output, which he did with
- 9:41Speaker 2: Washington too. But I'm not gonna trust Walker Bueller at
- 9:43Speaker 2: all here. He is not back by any means, his
- 9:46Speaker 2: command is still really bad.
- 9:48Speaker 1: Against Philadelphia.
- 9:49Speaker 2: He somehow has good numbers though in his career at
- 9:52Speaker 2: sixty at bats two thirty three, batting average six ninety ops.
- 9:56Speaker 1: But there is absolutely no way that I would trust
- 9:59Speaker 1: Bueller at all.
- 10:00Speaker 2: He's going up against Zach Wheeler, who is one of
- 10:02Speaker 2: the best pitchers in baseball two point three six, ERA
- 10:06Speaker 2: point eight six whip, one point nine to one HOMEYRA.
- 10:10Speaker 1: He's been really good at home.
- 10:12Speaker 2: He has an eighteen to one strikeout walker ratio in
- 10:14Speaker 2: two starts this month, including a complete game one hitter
- 10:18Speaker 2: against Cincinnati with twelve k's.
- 10:20Speaker 1: Is this guy pitching well right now? I don't know.
- 10:23Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Wheeler is definitely in form right now.
- 10:27Speaker 2: Up against the Boston Red Sox. He has done well
- 10:29Speaker 2: against them two and thirty eight at bats, two to eleven,
- 10:32Speaker 2: batting average six seventy one ops. So yeah, I would
- 10:37Speaker 2: be looking to probably play the Phillies in some form
- 10:40Speaker 2: here if I was gonna play this game. They do
- 10:43Speaker 2: have the money coming in on them. It looks like
- 10:44Speaker 2: they are a very high price tag, up from minus
- 10:47Speaker 2: two hundred to minus two poo five seventy percent of
- 10:50Speaker 2: ticket seventy four percent of the cash. I mean, if
- 10:52Speaker 2: you want to go Philadelphia run line on this game,
- 10:56Speaker 2: I would probably agree with it. I mean, I don't
- 10:59Speaker 2: really see an other way to play this game necessarily.
- 11:02Speaker 2: I wouldn't even really want to go Philly over their
- 11:04Speaker 2: team total really either, because Bueller, I mean, chances are
- 11:07Speaker 2: he probably is gonna suck, but the Red Sox bullpend
- 11:10Speaker 2: it's pretty good. I would want to play the discrepancy
- 11:14Speaker 2: between Bueller and Wheeler seems.
- 11:16Speaker 1: Like the better way to do it.
- 11:17Speaker 2: Maybe go run line in the first five innings because
- 11:19Speaker 2: the Red Sox do have a better bullpen, So first
- 11:21Speaker 2: five inning run line maybe again a decent price on
- 11:25Speaker 2: Philadelphia probably the way that I would look hard rr man,
- 11:28Speaker 2: thank you sir, you missed a tower gang? Is that
- 11:30Speaker 2: what we're talking about? So do I man? American sports
- 11:34Speaker 2: stat heavy? Well, baseball really is. I'm a situational handicapper,
- 11:38Speaker 2: So I look a lot at like what is the
- 11:41Speaker 2: like mental state that I think this team is gonna
- 11:43Speaker 2: be in coming into a spot like this? But baseball
- 11:47Speaker 2: really is like the most statistical sport, I would say,
- 11:51Speaker 2: the most stat oriented sport. So I look at the
- 11:54Speaker 2: numbers for baseball way more than I do in other sports.
- 11:57Speaker 1: Other sports.
- 11:58Speaker 2: It's almost all like, what is the situation this team
- 12:01Speaker 2: is in, are they coming off a big game?
- 12:03Speaker 1: Whatever?
- 12:04Speaker 2: I do have one more situational play today than statistical play,
- 12:09Speaker 2: so I will get to that eventually. It is actually
- 12:12Speaker 2: the one that's in the title here, the Brewers Mariners,
- 12:14Speaker 2: because it's the least boring of the games, Andrew What's
- 12:17Speaker 2: up Man of the games that I have plays on
- 12:20Speaker 2: at least Okay, Cincinnati at Washington, And you do have
- 12:25Speaker 2: to remember keep taking into account like what these teams,
- 12:28Speaker 2: like where these teams are coming from, Like did they
- 12:30Speaker 2: have travel Red Sox coming in to Philadelphia from Chicago?
- 12:34Speaker 2: Philadelphia staying at home. Washington is also staying at home.
- 12:37Speaker 2: They just got beat up by San Diego yesterday. Washington
- 12:41Speaker 2: terrible bullpen even though they didn't use that much of
- 12:43Speaker 2: the bullpen yesterday.
- 12:44Speaker 1: Their bullpen's bad.
- 12:46Speaker 2: Cincinnati probably used a little bit more of their bullpen
- 12:49Speaker 2: and a close loss to the Mets. Cincinnati I think
- 12:52Speaker 2: is in the worst spot here of the two though,
- 12:54Speaker 2: because they just had a four game win streak snapped
- 12:57Speaker 2: and they were on the verge of sweeping the Mets.
- 13:00Speaker 2: When the team's in a spot like that and they
- 13:01Speaker 2: lose a wind streak like that, a lot of times
- 13:03Speaker 2: it can hang them over, especially when it was against
- 13:06Speaker 2: a good team like the Mets and they are traveling
- 13:08Speaker 2: down to Washington.
- 13:09Speaker 1: I mean, it's not a.
- 13:10Speaker 2: Huge travel spot, but I think Cincinnati is in the
- 13:13Speaker 2: worst situational spot here. Brady Singer is pitching for Cincinnati,
- 13:17Speaker 2: his first season with the Reds.
- 13:19Speaker 1: He's been mediocre.
- 13:21Speaker 2: Four point three two ERA, one point three to five
- 13:24Speaker 2: whip is not very good, four point six six ERA
- 13:27Speaker 2: in the Rose. He's a little bit worse on the road.
- 13:29Speaker 2: He is pitching well this month for the most part, though,
- 13:32Speaker 2: sixteen to four strike a walk ratio having though four
- 13:34Speaker 2: point four e RA doesn't look that good, He's allowed
- 13:37Speaker 2: no more than three or in runs in any of
- 13:39Speaker 2: those starts, so he is keeping the opponent's run totals down.
- 13:42Speaker 2: He's not in bad form right now, but his last
- 13:45Speaker 2: two starts, which are both pretty good, we're against Miami
- 13:47Speaker 2: and Colorado, both at home. Those are both really bad offenses.
- 13:52Speaker 2: So I guess I read it too that the appropriate amount.
- 13:55Speaker 2: I guess he's going up against who are you playing
- 13:58Speaker 2: here Washington. Yeah, against Washington, he does have good numbers
- 14:02Speaker 2: and forty eight at bats, twelve to four strike at
- 14:04Speaker 2: walk ratio to a way to average allowed in six
- 14:07Speaker 2: to twenty three ops, so Singer at least does match
- 14:11Speaker 2: up fairly well against Washington. He's going up against Jake Irvin,
- 14:14Speaker 2: who is the lesser of the two pitchers here. Four
- 14:17Speaker 2: point five eighty RA one point two to nine whips.
- 14:19Speaker 2: His whip is actually better. He is better at home,
- 14:22Speaker 2: though he's gotten bombed for a lot of home runs
- 14:24Speaker 2: on the road. He's giving up a lot of home
- 14:26Speaker 2: runs this year, which is a huge problem, twenty two
- 14:29Speaker 2: of them, but he's allowed fourteen of them on the road,
- 14:31Speaker 2: so he is a little bit better at home in
- 14:34Speaker 2: almost all the metrics. Three point sixty nine Homye Ra
- 14:38Speaker 2: coming off a five inning, zero earned run appearance against
- 14:41Speaker 2: a good offense in the Brewers, so he's been somewhat
- 14:45Speaker 2: okay this month, and that he has a three point
- 14:47Speaker 2: seven to one ERA, but he does have a twelve
- 14:49Speaker 2: to eight strike a walk ratio this month. The prior
- 14:52Speaker 2: to start Saint Louis to Detroit, he walks seven guys
- 14:55Speaker 2: and only struck out seven in those two starts, so
- 14:58Speaker 2: that's not a good sign. Is walking too many guys
- 15:01Speaker 2: the last start of the previous month four walks and
- 15:04Speaker 2: three on runs allowed, eight runs allowed in that game
- 15:06Speaker 2: eight earned runs against Anaheim. That's not gonna cut it either.
- 15:10Speaker 2: So Irvin, he's not a good form right now.
- 15:13Speaker 1: Man.
- 15:13Speaker 2: So Brady Singer is the better of the two pitchers,
- 15:16Speaker 2: although maybe it's not that significant, but the matchup numbers
- 15:19Speaker 2: also favor Singer, as Irvin against Cincinnati not good in
- 15:23Speaker 2: sixty at bats, fifteen to five straight out walk ratio
- 15:26Speaker 2: is fine, but three thirty three average, nine to eighteen
- 15:29Speaker 2: ops pretty bad numbers there. Reds do hit him pretty well,
- 15:34Speaker 2: so I do think the situation is worse for the
- 15:36Speaker 2: Reds here. So situationally, I would actually agree with what
- 15:40Speaker 2: the money is saying here.
- 15:41Speaker 1: The money is.
- 15:41Speaker 2: Actually coming in on Washington, but based on that matchup,
- 15:44Speaker 2: I just can't recommend that as a play. But the
- 15:46Speaker 2: money looks like it is fading Cincinnati, and I would
- 15:49Speaker 2: agree that Cincinnati probably should not be a road favorite
- 15:52Speaker 2: in a spot like this. Down for minus one thirty
- 15:55Speaker 2: to minus one nineteen seventy nine percent of tickets on Cincinnati,
- 15:58Speaker 2: But fifty eight percent of the cap coming in on Washington,
- 16:01Speaker 2: so the money is coming in on Washington, even though
- 16:03Speaker 2: I would probably say that Cincinnati still also has the
- 16:06Speaker 2: better bulpen and hitting over Washington as well. But I
- 16:09Speaker 2: think their edge in this game isn't that significant, especially
- 16:12Speaker 2: given the situation. So I don't really disagree with what
- 16:16Speaker 2: the market read is. We're gonna have a lot of
- 16:18Speaker 2: talk about sides rather than totals today, man, because when
- 16:21Speaker 2: teams are starting a new series, you get a lot
- 16:23Speaker 2: more kind of situational aspects to the game where it
- 16:26Speaker 2: puts points you to sides more so the totals and
- 16:29Speaker 2: a lot of them. Yankees at Toronto is gonna be
- 16:32Speaker 2: a big series, man, with the Al East battle going
- 16:35Speaker 2: on here, where the Yankees are gonna be in revenge mode.
- 16:37Speaker 1: I would have to guess.
- 16:38Speaker 2: So I think there is a motivational advantage for the
- 16:42Speaker 2: Yankees here because we know they got swept in a
- 16:44Speaker 2: four game series. I believe that was it at Toronto
- 16:47Speaker 2: or was it at home? Let me see, it wasn't
- 16:50Speaker 2: that long ago. It was at Toronto, So they're actually
- 16:53Speaker 2: returning to the scene of the crime. Yankees last time
- 16:56Speaker 2: they were here lost all four games, lost the lead
- 16:59Speaker 2: in the Al East. But I think everybody would have
- 17:02Speaker 2: to agree that the Yankees are still the better team
- 17:04Speaker 2: over Toronto. As a Red Sox fan, I don't want
- 17:08Speaker 2: to agree with that, but I think that's what you
- 17:10Speaker 2: gotta believe here Toronto. I think he's a little bit
- 17:13Speaker 2: more of their bullpen yesterday, even though Toronto's bullpen is
- 17:16Speaker 2: the better of the two bullpens.
- 17:18Speaker 1: The rest edge kind of negates that a little bit.
- 17:21Speaker 2: And I think the Yankees again, I think they're gonna
- 17:22Speaker 2: be focused coming into this, even though they do have
- 17:25Speaker 2: to travel up to Canada to hear from Atlanta, while Toronto,
- 17:28Speaker 2: I believe, is actually just staying at home. So the
- 17:31Speaker 2: travel spot for the Yankees isn't the best. So Toronto
- 17:35Speaker 2: at least does have kind of a travel like a
- 17:37Speaker 2: little bit of rest edge at least, But still Yankees again,
- 17:41Speaker 2: I think there's a big revenge mode of here. They're
- 17:42Speaker 2: gonna be pissed about losing the division last time they
- 17:45Speaker 2: were up here. They do have one of their better
- 17:47Speaker 2: pitchers on the mound, Carlos redone three point adra.
- 17:51Speaker 1: One whip, having a good season for the Yankees.
- 17:54Speaker 2: He's been slightly worse on the road three point three
- 17:56Speaker 2: to six roadra but still pretty good. He did pitch
- 17:59Speaker 2: in the All Star Game, so he was sort of
- 18:03Speaker 2: pitching a little bit worse actually in the two starts
- 18:07Speaker 2: leading up to his most recent start, walking six guys
- 18:10Speaker 2: in those two starts, one of them being one of
- 18:12Speaker 2: the ones in that Toronto series. He did not have
- 18:14Speaker 2: a great game in that game, although he kept his
- 18:17Speaker 2: team in the game at least and they lost a
- 18:19Speaker 2: close game. He got bombed by the Mets after that,
- 18:22Speaker 2: giving up six or in runs after giving up two
- 18:25Speaker 2: to Toronto. Then he had an excellent outing against the Cubs,
- 18:28Speaker 2: which is pretty impressive because the Cubs were a great offense,
- 18:31Speaker 2: striking out eight in an eight inning, four hit shutout
- 18:34Speaker 2: with one walk, one of his best starts of the season.
- 18:37Speaker 2: And then he pitched in the All Star Game. Had
- 18:39Speaker 2: a scoreless inning in the All Star Game. But I
- 18:42Speaker 2: don't know if it's going to affect him that much
- 18:44Speaker 2: because that's I believe, the third time he's been named
- 18:46Speaker 2: to an All Star team, so it's probably not the
- 18:48Speaker 2: first time he's pitched in the All Star Game either,
- 18:51Speaker 2: and he kind of did it like on schedule really,
- 18:53Speaker 2: because if he hadn't done that, he'd have ten days
- 18:55Speaker 2: of rest. So I think the fact that he pitched
- 18:57Speaker 2: an inning there might help him a little bit stay
- 18:59Speaker 2: on schedule. Joel, So, I actually don't really hate that
- 19:02Speaker 2: he's going up against Toronto here. Obviously, against Toronto, ninety
- 19:07Speaker 2: eight at bats two forty five average, allowed seven to
- 19:10Speaker 2: twenty three ops, twenty seven to ten strike out walk ratios,
- 19:14Speaker 2: a few too many walks, but overall his numbers are
- 19:16Speaker 2: not bad against Toronto. Against he's going up against Kevin Goussman,
- 19:21Speaker 2: who's been a little bit unpredictable, to be honest, So
- 19:24Speaker 2: though mostly fairly good four point one to ninety RA,
- 19:27Speaker 2: one point one to six whip for the Blue Jays,
- 19:30Speaker 2: He's been very similar home in away, his splits are
- 19:33Speaker 2: pretty insignificant this month. He's been allowing a lot of
- 19:37Speaker 2: walks Man. He has a fourteen to nine strike out
- 19:39Speaker 2: walk ratio in three starts this month. Even though one
- 19:41Speaker 2: of them was a win over the Yankees, it wasn't
- 19:44Speaker 2: all good in that start because he walked four guys
- 19:47Speaker 2: in five innings and he allowed six hits, so he
- 19:50Speaker 2: really kind of escaped in that game. Only allowing tourn
- 19:53Speaker 2: runs and the Yankees got blown up for a lot
- 19:55Speaker 2: of runs themselves in that game, So Goussman, he wasn't
- 19:59Speaker 2: exactly great in that game. He's walked at least two
- 20:02Speaker 2: in every outing this month, even though he has limited
- 20:04Speaker 2: his opponents to three or fewer earned runs.
- 20:07Speaker 1: In all those starts. He's not exactly in the greatest
- 20:10Speaker 1: forum right now.
- 20:12Speaker 2: Yankees is certainly familiar with him, as he's been in
- 20:14Speaker 2: the division for a while. Yankees have a lot of
- 20:17Speaker 2: at bats against him, and they have okay numbers against
- 20:19Speaker 2: him in one hundred and eighty four at bats sixty
- 20:22Speaker 2: eight to.
- 20:22Speaker 1: Thirty one strike a walk ratio.
- 20:24Speaker 2: That's a lot of walks, two fifty batting average eight
- 20:27Speaker 2: to thirty five OPS. Though that OPS is really high
- 20:30Speaker 2: if you want to look for player props. I mean,
- 20:32Speaker 2: we're looking at Goldschmidt nine for sixteen with a home
- 20:35Speaker 2: run here, and then Aaron Judge has ridiculous numbers against
- 20:39Speaker 2: him sixteen for forty three, six homers, ten walks, although
- 20:43Speaker 2: he does have eighteen strikeouts, which is a lot. But
- 20:46Speaker 2: I talk about hits plus runs plus RBIs, and Judge
- 20:49Speaker 2: does have particularly good numbers against Gusman. Overall, I lean
- 20:54Speaker 2: to the Yankees in this game because I think the
- 20:56Speaker 2: situational edge, the motivational edges there.
- 20:59Speaker 1: You are paying attacks.
- 21:01Speaker 2: As usual for the Yankees. You're having to lay a
- 21:03Speaker 2: price on the road with them. But in a case
- 21:06Speaker 2: like this, it almost looks misleading, even though you think
- 21:08Speaker 2: the public would be on the Yankees for the most
- 21:10Speaker 2: part because they are the Yankees.
- 21:12Speaker 1: But in a case like this, the public.
- 21:14Speaker 2: Knows the Yankees just lost all four games to Toronto
- 21:17Speaker 2: last time they were here, and the Yankees have a
- 21:19Speaker 2: worse record than Toronto right now, so that might actually
- 21:22Speaker 2: keep the public.
- 21:23Speaker 1: At Bay a little bit.
- 21:24Speaker 2: Fifty four percent of tickets on the Yankees, fifty eight
- 21:27Speaker 2: percent of the cash though, and they're down a little
- 21:29Speaker 2: bit from minus one fifteen to minus one thirteen.
- 21:31Speaker 1: This might be one of the few games.
- 21:33Speaker 2: Where, because it's basically just to pick the winner price,
- 21:36Speaker 2: you might actually just be getting a little bit of
- 21:38Speaker 2: value on the Yankees in that one, So that I
- 21:40Speaker 2: would lean to the Yankees there. Don't want to play
- 21:42Speaker 2: it though, Anaheim at the Yankees.
- 21:45Speaker 1: Or excuse me, at the Mets. What am I saying?
- 21:47Speaker 1: The other New York team? Sorry? New York people.
- 21:50Speaker 2: Anaheim is coming in from Philadelphia where they just beat Philadelphia,
- 21:55Speaker 2: which is a pretty big win there. But the Mets
- 21:57Speaker 2: are also a pretty good team. I don't think Anaheim
- 21:59Speaker 2: is gonna be focus here. I just think Anaheim is
- 22:02Speaker 2: nowhere near as good as their record looks, and I'm
- 22:04Speaker 2: gonna continue to say that as they continue to keep winning.
- 22:08Speaker 2: The Mets use more of their bullpen. Yesterday, I believe
- 22:11Speaker 2: against the Reds to finally break their recent losing stretch
- 22:14Speaker 2: that they had there. Overall, I think the Mets, I mean,
- 22:17Speaker 2: they do have the better bullpen. Anaheim's bullpen is terrible,
- 22:21Speaker 2: but the Mets bullpen is a little bit unrested right now.
- 22:24Speaker 2: Still probably give a slight bullpen edge to the Mets,
- 22:27Speaker 2: though Mets also have the starting pitching edge, because I
- 22:30Speaker 2: certainly do not like Tyler Anderson for Anaheim here, four
- 22:34Speaker 2: point three four ERA one point four to one whip.
- 22:37Speaker 1: Is very high.
- 22:38Speaker 2: He's been particularly bad on the road five point four
- 22:41Speaker 2: to seven e RA eleven home runs allowed on the
- 22:44Speaker 2: road out of the seventeen that he's allowed. He's definitely
- 22:47Speaker 2: struggled on the road this month. I mean, his numbers
- 22:50Speaker 2: might look okay, the fact that he's allowed four or
- 22:52Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in every start, but twelve to six
- 22:55Speaker 2: strikeout walker ratio is not very good. So again, he's
- 22:58Speaker 2: putting too many guys on base, consistently walking two in
- 23:01Speaker 2: every outing, which isn't that great. It's not really gonna
- 23:04Speaker 2: get the job done, especially when you're not a huge
- 23:06Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher, which Anderson is really not.
- 23:10Speaker 1: And he's fairly.
- 23:11Speaker 2: Old at this point too. Although he has decent numbers
- 23:13Speaker 2: against the Mets, surprising. They have a good offense, but
- 23:16Speaker 2: in seventy five at bats two forty average six sixteen
- 23:19Speaker 2: ops eight to six strike a walk ratio is not
- 23:22Speaker 2: very good, although five of those walks are one Sodo,
- 23:25Speaker 2: so it looks like he kind of pitches around Sodo.
- 23:27Speaker 2: But none of the Mets hitters really hit him well
- 23:30Speaker 2: at all. So Anderson actually, surprisingly he has good numbers
- 23:34Speaker 2: against the Mets. He's going up against code I Senga,
- 23:37Speaker 2: who was having a great season so far, though it
- 23:40Speaker 2: was interrupted by an injury and he just came back.
- 23:44Speaker 2: I think he's only made one start so far since
- 23:46Speaker 2: he came back from injury, one point three to ninety
- 23:49Speaker 2: RA and one point one to three WHIP on the season,
- 23:51Speaker 2: really good numbers point nine sixty RA at home.
- 23:54Speaker 1: He's been even better at home.
- 23:56Speaker 2: He was out for about a month and then he
- 23:58Speaker 2: came back and he had a four inning shutout against
- 24:00Speaker 2: the Royals with four strike goouns to two walks, four
- 24:04Speaker 2: hits allowed. Still, that's pretty good for a start when
- 24:06Speaker 2: you come back from injury, man you're basically I think
- 24:09Speaker 2: it shows that he's getting back on track.
- 24:11Speaker 1: They didn't want to overwork him.
- 24:12Speaker 2: They gave him sixty seven pitches, so I think we'll
- 24:14Speaker 2: probably see him go more of a full starter's workload
- 24:17Speaker 2: this time out.
- 24:18Speaker 1: I think he will be back.
- 24:19Speaker 2: He's basically back in for him, even though Kansas City
- 24:22Speaker 2: is a bad offense. But still, that's a good sign
- 24:25Speaker 2: that he pitched well in that game up against Anaheim,
- 24:28Speaker 2: though I believe he actually has bad numbers against Anaheim. Yeah,
- 24:31Speaker 2: and twenty one at bats. Anaheim surprisingly has hit him
- 24:34Speaker 2: quite well three eighty one batting average as a team
- 24:38Speaker 2: one thousand.
- 24:39Speaker 1: And thirty oh ps.
- 24:40Speaker 2: So Sengam, maybe this is not the greatest matchup for him,
- 24:44Speaker 2: and you are having to lay a huge price with
- 24:46Speaker 2: the Mets, and it's for good reason.
- 24:48Speaker 1: Really.
- 24:48Speaker 2: I mean, the Mets have the better bullpend, they have
- 24:51Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher overall, though the matchup numbers actually
- 24:54Speaker 2: look against it, and I would say the Mets have
- 24:56Speaker 2: the better offense too. They're down for minus one as
- 25:00Speaker 2: one seventy seven though eighty two percent of tickets ninety
- 25:03Speaker 2: seven percent of the cash, so it looks like they
- 25:05Speaker 2: do have the cash percentage, even though the money line
- 25:07Speaker 2: has moved against them. So hard to read into the
- 25:12Speaker 2: market there, but the Mets are certainly public and I
- 25:14Speaker 2: think probably just given that the starting pitching matchup doesn't
- 25:17Speaker 2: look really that much in favor of the Mets, just
- 25:20Speaker 2: looking at the matchup numbers, I would say it's probably
- 25:24Speaker 2: not worth paying the price for the Mets in that game.
- 25:26Speaker 2: Man San Francisco is at Atlanta. San Francisco was just
- 25:31Speaker 2: in Toronto, so they're having to travel down from Toronto
- 25:34Speaker 2: to Atlanta, so not the greatest travel spot. Maybe Atlanta
- 25:38Speaker 2: is coming up a big series against the Yankees, though
- 25:41Speaker 2: where they had they should have won the second game,
- 25:43Speaker 2: Atlanta blew a big lead in the second game and
- 25:45Speaker 2: then they lost a close game yesterday, so Atlanta might
- 25:48Speaker 2: be a little bit of a letdown. Spot, but they
- 25:50Speaker 2: are still playing a team that does a good record
- 25:52Speaker 2: in San Francisco. Though San Francisco their offense is really
- 25:57Speaker 2: bad and they've been really struggling recently, So those are
- 25:59Speaker 2: the issue he's with San Francisco. They've been playing bad
- 26:02Speaker 2: baseball recently. San Francisco does still have the better bullpen.
- 26:06Speaker 2: I mean, they have the best bullpen in baseball for
- 26:08Speaker 2: the most part, but I think the starting pitching edge
- 26:12Speaker 2: is actually not in favor of San Francisco. Here with
- 26:14Speaker 2: Hayden Bird's song pitching four point one one one point
- 26:18Speaker 2: four to two whip, He's been a guy that's been
- 26:20Speaker 2: back and forth between the bullpen and the starting rotation.
- 26:23Speaker 2: His whip is definitely way too high. He's been a
- 26:25Speaker 2: little bit better on the road three point nine to
- 26:28Speaker 2: four road era. He basically goes five innings at most
- 26:33Speaker 2: in every start. He seems to get you like four
- 26:35Speaker 2: or five innings in every start. San Francisco had lost
- 26:39Speaker 2: four of his starts in a row until the most
- 26:41Speaker 2: recent start where he actually got a win against the
- 26:44Speaker 2: A's in that horrible Sacramento stadium there that is not
- 26:47Speaker 2: very pitcher.
- 26:48Speaker 1: Friendly at all.
- 26:49Speaker 2: He's somehow only allowed one run to the A's, but
- 26:52Speaker 2: he had five walks in the game. His walk numbers
- 26:55Speaker 2: have been atrocious.
- 26:56Speaker 1: Man.
- 26:56Speaker 2: Over the last three starts, he's walked thirteen batter has
- 27:00Speaker 2: only struck out thirteen as well, so terrible strikeout walk
- 27:04Speaker 2: ratio over the last three starts. He is certainly not
- 27:07Speaker 2: in good form. I mean, the walk numbers are just
- 27:10Speaker 2: outrageously bad. So I would not put any trust into
- 27:13Speaker 2: Haten Bird's song here. I'll be against the Atlanta does
- 27:18Speaker 2: have good numbers though for the most part, in seventeen
- 27:20Speaker 2: at bats of one seventy six batting average, but because
- 27:23Speaker 2: he's allowed one of them run to Sean Murphy, and
- 27:25Speaker 2: he has four strikeouts to six walks, although three of
- 27:29Speaker 2: them are matt Ols and he seems to just pitch
- 27:31Speaker 2: around Olson. He has allowed a seven forty four ohps
- 27:34Speaker 2: to them, which is a little bit higher. So even
- 27:36Speaker 2: though the opponent batting average is good for him, I
- 27:39Speaker 2: don't trust birds song. And he did pitch against the
- 27:42Speaker 2: Braves not that long ago, back on June sixth, and
- 27:45Speaker 2: he only went four to thirty, walked five guys in
- 27:48Speaker 2: that game, and somehow got away with only along two
- 27:50Speaker 2: runs in that game. But man, that was not a
- 27:52Speaker 2: good start in San Francisco, so it doesn't look good
- 27:56Speaker 2: for him. But then you look at the other side,
- 27:57Speaker 2: it's Bryce Elder bitching for Atlanta, and you know, I
- 28:00Speaker 2: don't like this guy either. His numbers are really bad
- 28:03Speaker 2: five point six' FIVE, era one point five to one,
- 28:06Speaker 2: whip really bad at, home six point six' NINE home yra. Very,
- 28:10Speaker 2: bad yeah, just overall he's, been really really awful. This
- 28:16Speaker 2: month twelve to four strikeout. WALK ratio, I mean i
- 28:18Speaker 2: guess that's not that bad four point SIX. Three era
- 28:21Speaker 2: he's coming off a nice outing At The, a's stadium
- 28:24Speaker 2: so he actually pitched well in that hitter friendly, ballpark
- 28:27Speaker 2: there with seven strikeouts. One walk but that has not
- 28:30Speaker 2: been the norm. For him the last three Starts, in
- 28:34Speaker 2: june he had more walks, THAN strikeouts, i, believe no
- 28:37Speaker 2: the same eight walks, Eight strikeouts so his.
- 28:40Speaker 1: Strike out walk ratio has not been that.
- 28:42Speaker 2: Good, recently however one of his best starts of the
- 28:45Speaker 2: season Was Against san francisco Back on. June seventh eight,
- 28:49Speaker 2: inning performance, twelve strikeouts, no walks one on, and run allowed,
- 28:54Speaker 2: three hits so he Absolutely Dominated san francisco in. That
- 28:58Speaker 2: game his Numbers against francisco in his career are.
- 29:02Speaker 1: Also good in.
- 29:03Speaker 2: Forty at bats fourteen to two strike a walk ratio
- 29:06Speaker 2: adamis as two of them runs Off and flores, has
- 29:09Speaker 2: won but he hasn't allowed much other than that one
- 29:12Speaker 2: seventy five.
- 29:12Speaker 1: Average allowed six to sixty.
- 29:14Speaker 2: Four OHPS so I think elder has the upper hand in, this,
- 29:17Speaker 2: one man even, THOUGH yeah i do Not like, elder
- 29:20Speaker 2: WHATSOEVER but i think he's got the upper.
- 29:23Speaker 1: HAND here i think people are gonna look.
- 29:24Speaker 2: At this and see the records and, still, think well wait,
- 29:27Speaker 2: a minute HOW am I Getting san francisco as an?
- 29:29Speaker 2: Underdog Here When san francisco has an above five hundred
- 29:33Speaker 2: record And the braves are like twelve games below. Five
- 29:36Speaker 2: hundred why would anybody in their right mind want to
- 29:39Speaker 2: Play the braves as a?
- 29:40Speaker 1: Favorite?
- 29:40Speaker 2: Here RIGHT but i think their favorite for. A. Reason
- 29:43Speaker 2: Man the giants' only advantage in this game is they
- 29:45Speaker 2: have the. Better bullpen braves certainly have the, better offense
- 29:48Speaker 2: and THEY the i believe they have the better of
- 29:51Speaker 2: the two, starting pitchers And the giants probably are gonna
- 29:53Speaker 2: be the first team to go to the bullpen Because
- 29:55Speaker 2: bird song doesn't go deep, into GAMES so i think it's.
- 29:59Speaker 1: A one of those kind of. Trap lines it.
- 30:01Speaker 2: Looks misleading the books are continuing to Give the braves
- 30:05Speaker 2: a lot of, respect though even though they continue to
- 30:07Speaker 2: not win that.
- 30:08Speaker 1: Many GAMES but i do think that it's justified in.
- 30:11Speaker 2: This case the total has dropped or excuse the money
- 30:14Speaker 2: line has dropped, a lot from minus one to forty
- 30:16Speaker 2: five to minus.
- 30:16Speaker 1: One, to eighteen so a significant Move.
- 30:19Speaker 2: Against atlanta but it also looks like they have sixty
- 30:21Speaker 2: three percent of the cash with sixty three percent of
- 30:24Speaker 2: the tickets Being On. San francisco so even though the money,
- 30:26Speaker 2: line dropped the cash percentage is completely against where that money.
- 30:32Speaker 2: Line moves so it's a little bit hard to read the.
- 30:34Speaker 2: Market there but based on EVERYTHING that i look at
- 30:38Speaker 2: as far as the game, IS concerned I think atlanta
- 30:40Speaker 2: is probably the right side in. That game and if,
- 30:43Speaker 2: you uh, you know if you don't want To trust,
- 30:46Speaker 2: atlanta's bullpen you could go first five Innings with atlanta.
- 30:49Speaker 2: As Well white Sox At. Tampa Bay The white sox
- 30:53Speaker 2: coming In from pittsburgh and they Just.
- 30:54Speaker 1: Swept.
- 30:55Speaker 2: Pittsburgh pittsburgh the one thing about them is there at
- 30:59Speaker 2: least pretty good. At home Usually The white sox are
- 31:01Speaker 2: not a, good team But The white sox dominated that Series.
- 31:04Speaker 2: Against pittsburgh crazy to. Think about they're going To, face
- 31:07Speaker 2: tampa who are staying at home in this temporary home
- 31:12Speaker 2: stadium for Them At Spring. Training stadium neither bullpen saw
- 31:17Speaker 2: a ton of. Usage yesterday the bullpen edge Goes to.
- 31:20Speaker 2: TAMPA here, i Mean The white sox don't have a lot. Of.
- 31:23Speaker 2: Edges Usually sean burke is gonna be in the pitcher
- 31:26Speaker 2: For The white. Sox here he's in his, rookie season
- 31:28Speaker 2: but he's kind of faded. A. BIT well i don't
- 31:30Speaker 2: know if he's really been that good, at, all really
- 31:32Speaker 2: but four point THREE six era and one point four
- 31:35Speaker 2: whip worse on, the road a five point one to
- 31:37Speaker 2: eight Roady ra he's been actually somewhat mediocre over most
- 31:43Speaker 2: of his, recent starts having occasional starts where he gets absolutely,
- 31:46Speaker 2: blown up and then in actually three of his last
- 31:49Speaker 2: four starts he's allowed two or fewer, earned runs which
- 31:51Speaker 2: is actually, fairly good and had a decent strike a
- 31:54Speaker 2: walk right in. Those games with the games where he doesn't,
- 31:56Speaker 2: pitch well he's walking a lot. Of guys he's kind
- 31:59Speaker 2: of walking a lot of. Guys, anyway actually three of
- 32:01Speaker 2: the last or four of the last five starts he's
- 32:04Speaker 2: walked two. Or more has a five point zero sixty
- 32:07Speaker 2: r in three starts, this month all losses For The
- 32:09Speaker 2: white sox twelve to six strike out, Walk ratio so
- 32:12Speaker 2: he's not exactly pitching. That well he's going up against
- 32:16Speaker 2: who we're talking, About Here. TAMPA bay I think tampa
- 32:18Speaker 2: probably hasn't seen. Him Before tampa bay has Never faced,
- 32:21Speaker 2: burke before so that's at least an advantage to a
- 32:25Speaker 2: young Pitcher like burke facing an offense that's never seen.
- 32:28Speaker 1: It Before but tampa is the better of the.
- 32:31Speaker 2: Two offenses Tampa Has shane, boz pitching who generally is
- 32:34Speaker 2: the better of the. Two pitchers four point one seventy
- 32:37Speaker 2: ray one point two to. Five whip he's been a
- 32:39Speaker 2: lot worse in this stadium though it's a pretty hitter,
- 32:42Speaker 2: friendly Stadium and boz has. Struggled here ten of the
- 32:45Speaker 2: seventeen home runs he's allowed this year have been in.
- 32:47Speaker 2: This stadium five point four to seven homey ra. Not
- 32:50Speaker 2: good he is pitching decently over the last, four starts
- 32:54Speaker 2: though he's gone at least six innings in, all four
- 32:56Speaker 2: allowing three or fewer earned runs in, all four even
- 32:58Speaker 2: though his team has lost last three.
- 33:00Speaker 1: Of them none of those are really.
- 33:02Speaker 2: His fault he has a twenty one to five strike
- 33:04Speaker 2: out walk ratio over the last, three starts thirty to six.
- 33:09Speaker 1: Over the last. Four Starts so boz is actually kind
- 33:13Speaker 1: of in a groove.
- 33:13Speaker 2: Right now his command is there, right, now man so
- 33:16Speaker 2: he is actually pitching. Pretty WELL and i Believe The
- 33:19Speaker 2: white sox may have never faced him. Before, either Yeah
- 33:21Speaker 2: so boz has the same Edge the. Burke does neither
- 33:24Speaker 2: starting pitcher has been seen before by the, Opposing HITTERS
- 33:27Speaker 2: so i would say maybe you could look at this
- 33:30Speaker 2: game as a first five. INNING under i don't think
- 33:33Speaker 2: i'd want to deal With The white sox bullpen as
- 33:35Speaker 2: far as. An under the total is, really high some
- 33:37Speaker 2: of it because the stadium is very. Hitter friendly it's
- 33:41Speaker 2: sitting at nine fifty. Four percent take is ninety three
- 33:43Speaker 2: percent of the cash on. The over excuse the eighty
- 33:45Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on, The over so the
- 33:48Speaker 2: mond newest thing is coming in on. The OVER but
- 33:50Speaker 2: i think that both pitchers might have a little bit
- 33:51Speaker 2: of an edge early in this game because they're unfamiliar
- 33:54Speaker 2: to the. Opposing Hitters so i'd probably be leaning the
- 33:58Speaker 2: way of an under in the first five, That ONE
- 34:00Speaker 2: but i am certainly not recommending a play. On that
- 34:03Speaker 2: we're Getting to zach is gonna come out and talk
- 34:06Speaker 2: About the, Royals now robin if she's.
- 34:09Speaker 1: Still Around the royals are At.
- 34:10Speaker 2: The, cubs difficult difficult matchup For the royals here man
- 34:14Speaker 2: as far as facing a Really good, Cubs team but
- 34:17Speaker 2: If the royals are gonna get a game in, THE
- 34:19Speaker 2: series i think this is gonna be the best pitching
- 34:21Speaker 2: Matchup the royals have in, the series probably where they
- 34:25Speaker 2: have their best young pitcher up Against The chicago cubs.
- 34:28Speaker 2: Bullpend game cubs are coming off a big series Against The.
- 34:31Speaker 2: Red Sox the cubs did use a bit of. Their
- 34:33Speaker 2: bullpen royals used a lot of their bullpen yesterday. To
- 34:36Speaker 2: Though the royals are Traveling, from miami So the royals
- 34:40Speaker 2: do have a travel disadvantage having to travel Up. From
- 34:42Speaker 2: miami cubs are staying. At home both bullpen's a little
- 34:46Speaker 2: bit of. Usage yesterday both bullpens are decent. Bullpens Generally
- 34:51Speaker 2: On noah cameron is pitching For. The royals, YOU know
- 34:54Speaker 2: i like. This guy i've been seeing. HIS praises i
- 34:56Speaker 2: think this is his, rookie season and he is pitching
- 34:58Speaker 2: well two point three, one whip a point nine TO
- 35:03Speaker 2: three era on. The road he's only allowed one of
- 35:06Speaker 2: the seven home runs he's allowed on, the road although
- 35:08Speaker 2: he has more innings pitched.
- 35:10Speaker 1: At home, but still he's been really good on.
- 35:12Speaker 2: The road and he's been really in good form this
- 35:16Speaker 2: month after he had a bad start Against the dodgers To,
- 35:18Speaker 2: finish june which you can give him a pass.
- 35:21Speaker 1: ON that, i Mean the dodgers are.
- 35:22Speaker 2: Good offense he's been pretty good this month in the
- 35:24Speaker 2: twenty to four strikeout, walk ratio allowing zero two and
- 35:29Speaker 2: zero earned runs in the. Three starts even though he
- 35:31Speaker 2: only made it four and two Thirds. Against seattle still
- 35:34Speaker 2: basically didn't give up a whole lot of Anything. Against
- 35:36Speaker 2: seattle he's coming off very impressively a six and two
- 35:39Speaker 2: third inning shutout Against the mets with, eight strikeouts, two
- 35:44Speaker 2: walks and. Seven hits so very impressive from The Young
- 35:47Speaker 2: noah cameron here And. The, cubs yeah they're a really,
- 35:50Speaker 2: good offense but. He is at least he has, the
- 35:54Speaker 2: unfamiliarity As the cubs have never seen. Him before maybe
- 35:58Speaker 2: you have to dial it back a, little Bit because
- 36:00Speaker 2: cameron did struggle Against the dodgers And the yankees when he,
- 36:02Speaker 2: faced them and those are the two most comparable offenses To.
- 36:06Speaker 2: THE cubs, i know he did just pitch well Against,
- 36:08Speaker 2: the mets But, the Cubs, the yankees And the dodgers
- 36:11Speaker 2: are all a step up offensively From, the mets even
- 36:15Speaker 2: Though the mets are. Pretty Good, so cameron he may
- 36:19Speaker 2: very well do well in, this, game, Though man and
- 36:21Speaker 2: it looks like with a low total here In A wrigley,
- 36:24Speaker 2: field game it looks like probably the wind is blowing
- 36:26Speaker 2: in Off Of wrigley field today with that low of.
- 36:29Speaker 2: A total Because the cubs are going with a. Bullpen
- 36:32Speaker 2: Game Is ryan brazier is listed as the. Starter here
- 36:35Speaker 2: he does have good numbers this year one POINT four
- 36:38Speaker 2: era point nine TO two whip a little bit worse
- 36:41Speaker 2: at home two point TWENTY, five ra but he doesn't
- 36:43Speaker 2: have a whole lot of. Innings pitched he's been pitching
- 36:45Speaker 2: out of, the BULLPEN and i think maybe he's made
- 36:47Speaker 2: some opener appearances.
- 36:49Speaker 1: AS well, i mean he's gonna be an.
- 36:51Speaker 2: Opener, today man you're probably gonna get one inning out
- 36:53Speaker 2: of him and then he's gonna give way to. The
- 36:55Speaker 2: bullpen so it is a bullpen game For, the cubs
- 36:58Speaker 2: saying with their bullpend being a, little bit.
- 36:59Speaker 1: YOU up i don't know if that's necessarily. That great we.
- 37:03Speaker 2: Will see brazier did pitch During The red. Sox series
- 37:07Speaker 2: he came out of the bullpen. AS well i Think
- 37:08Speaker 2: in game TWO maybe i forget it was whatever the
- 37:12Speaker 2: six nothing. Game Was so brazier did, pitch recently BUT he's,
- 37:16Speaker 2: i mean he's a reliever for the, most part so
- 37:18Speaker 2: he's used to pitching like every other day for the.
- 37:20Speaker 2: Most PART but i don't know what we're gonna get
- 37:23Speaker 2: with him against what we're gonna get out Of, the,
- 37:27Speaker 2: cubs man just because you're gonna get.
- 37:28Speaker 1: Their bullpen coming into.
- 37:29Speaker 2: This game but they are facing a weak offense Though With,
- 37:32Speaker 2: kansas city so that will Help the cubs bullpen a.
- 37:35Speaker 1: Little bit the fact that they're facing a.
- 37:37Speaker 2: Bad offense brazier has been Good Against kansas city eight,
- 37:40Speaker 2: at bats very small, sample size but they're only one,
- 37:43Speaker 2: for eight often with, three strikeouts, one walk one five
- 37:46Speaker 2: average three forty.
- 37:47Speaker 1: Seven OPS.
- 37:50Speaker 2: So i do see some arguments for an under in
- 37:53Speaker 2: Just That kansas city has a really, bad Offense And
- 37:56Speaker 2: noah cameron has been, a really really good, young pitcher
- 37:59Speaker 2: and the money is kind of coming in in. The
- 38:00Speaker 2: under the totals down from eight to seven and, a
- 38:02Speaker 2: half pretty much fifty six percent of tickets on, the
- 38:05Speaker 2: over but fifty.
- 38:06Speaker 1: Four percent of the cash in.
- 38:06Speaker 2: THE under i wouldn't necessarily disagree, with IT but i
- 38:10Speaker 2: don't love that the bullpens are pretty unrested And the
- 38:12Speaker 2: cubs are gonna be going with the bullpen for the,
- 38:15Speaker 2: Whole GAME so i do think the under is a
- 38:17Speaker 2: little bit of a dicey way to look. As well
- 38:19Speaker 2: cubs are also very public eighty nine percent, of tickets
- 38:22Speaker 2: although they have ninety six percent of. The cash money
- 38:24Speaker 2: line has moved up from minus one thirty to minus.
- 38:26Speaker 2: ONE forty i WOULD say i Probably favor cameron as
- 38:31Speaker 2: far as the side.
- 38:31Speaker 1: IS concerned.
- 38:32Speaker 2: I might i wouldn't hate a Look Towards kansas city
- 38:36Speaker 2: on the money line in the first. FIVE innings i
- 38:38Speaker 2: probably would not want to go full game, with it
- 38:40Speaker 2: just because the. Bullpens, might uh you don't know what
- 38:44Speaker 2: to expect out of the bullpens here how unrested. They
- 38:47Speaker 2: ARE but i think you can Expect That nol cameron
- 38:50Speaker 2: should do well and he's probably gonna be Up against
- 38:52Speaker 2: cubs relievers pretty early in. The Game So kansas city
- 38:56Speaker 2: first five innings as an underdog might be a way to.
- 38:58Speaker 2: Look there i'm gonna Skip as texas and go back
- 39:01Speaker 2: to it because that's going to be. A Play saint Louis,
- 39:04Speaker 2: At colorado colorado is staying.
- 39:07Speaker 1: At home they. Finally lost they were on the version of.
- 39:10Speaker 2: Maybe, sweeping minnesota but that was not, to Be As
- 39:12Speaker 2: joe Ryan dominated colorado yesterday and they lost the game seven.
- 39:17Speaker 2: To One saint louis is coming in off getting swept
- 39:22Speaker 2: pretty Badly. By Arizona saint louis not playing well, right
- 39:25Speaker 2: NOW which i kind.
- 39:26Speaker 1: Of.
- 39:26Speaker 2: EXPECTED man I Thought saint louis's record was better than they,
- 39:30Speaker 2: actually are and it's starting. To show but they are
- 39:32Speaker 2: facing a Very bad colorado. Team Here saint louis does
- 39:36Speaker 2: still have a bullpen edge here And in colorado doesn't
- 39:38Speaker 2: really have much of an edge in any department. Against
- 39:40Speaker 2: Anybody saint louis still has the better offense out of
- 39:43Speaker 2: the two teams, as well and they do have the
- 39:45Speaker 2: better starter. As Well and michael McGreevy, young pitcher has
- 39:48Speaker 2: been having a decent season four point TWO, two era
- 39:52Speaker 2: one point Zero three whip better on the road one
- 39:55Speaker 2: Point Eight, roady RAY although i think they must have
- 39:58Speaker 2: sent him down or something.
- 39:59Speaker 1: Because he had a bad start Against.
- 40:01Speaker 2: The CUBS but, i mean it's tough to pitch well Against, the,
- 40:04Speaker 2: cubs man they're a, Good offense so overall McGreevy has.
- 40:07Speaker 2: Been Okay saint louis has won three of his, four
- 40:10Speaker 2: starts including one Against, the mets and that start Against.
- 40:12Speaker 2: The cubs they won that start even though he didn't
- 40:15Speaker 2: pitch well in. The game he had a very low
- 40:17Speaker 2: strike out rate in, that game but his strike out,
- 40:19Speaker 2: rate overall his strike out walk ratio at least is
- 40:22Speaker 2: not bad sixteen, to three so his command has been
- 40:26Speaker 2: pretty good. This season he's a lot fewer than one hit,
- 40:28Speaker 2: per inning so he has certainly not. Been BAD so
- 40:30Speaker 2: i don't mind mcgrieving Up. AGAINST colorado i believe they
- 40:35Speaker 2: actually did see him. Last year let, ME see i
- 40:38Speaker 2: think he did pitch Once against colorado, last year and
- 40:41Speaker 2: he actually, Pitched WELL and i think it was At,
- 40:43Speaker 2: courts field so he's actually pitched in this high elevation
- 40:47Speaker 2: stadium at one, point too so he's.
- 40:48Speaker 1: A little he's at least a little bit used.
- 40:50Speaker 2: To it, And yeah colorado's current lineup is over eleven
- 40:54Speaker 2: offen with four strikeouts and, no walks so he has Completely.
- 40:57Speaker 2: Blanked COLORADO so i think you do have to give
- 40:59Speaker 2: the edge. To mcgreeving he's coming back up to the major,
- 41:03Speaker 2: league team he's probably gonna have something to, prove here
- 41:05Speaker 2: and he's been pitching. Fairly impressively Colorado Is austin. Gomber
- 41:09Speaker 2: pitching he has not. BEEN impressive, i Mean which colorado
- 41:13Speaker 2: pitcher has, Been impressive none. Of them he's got a
- 41:16Speaker 2: five point SIX, five era one point six whip. Really
- 41:19Speaker 2: bad he's been worse, at home significantly worse at home
- 41:22Speaker 2: seven point three SIX homey ra three sixty nine opponent
- 41:26Speaker 2: batting average. AT home i know it's a small sample size,
- 41:29Speaker 2: so far but that. Is bad hasn't even made it
- 41:31Speaker 2: five innings in his last, two starts nine to four
- 41:34Speaker 2: strike out walker issue.
- 41:36Speaker 1: This month there's not a whole lot to Like.
- 41:37Speaker 2: About gomber rockies have lost all of his last five
- 41:41Speaker 2: starts And Against.
- 41:43Speaker 1: Saint louis what does he have for? Numbers here.
- 41:48Speaker 2: Not good in sixty at bats nine, to five strike
- 41:50Speaker 2: out walker, race here three hundred, batting average a lot
- 41:52Speaker 2: eight ninety. Eight Ops so i'm not looking to make
- 41:57Speaker 2: any sort of Play on, colorado, Here man but you're
- 41:59Speaker 2: probably too much of a Price With saint louis on.
- 42:01Speaker 1: The road they.
- 42:03Speaker 2: Look public they have sixty nine percent of tickets only
- 42:05Speaker 2: fifty six percent of, the cash although they've moved up
- 42:07Speaker 2: from minus one thirty five to minus. ONE fifty i think,
- 42:11Speaker 2: the feeling probably amongst the professional betters is Just That
- 42:14Speaker 2: saint louis probably shouldn't be laying a price like this
- 42:17Speaker 2: on the road against.
- 42:18Speaker 1: Most teams but this.
- 42:19Speaker 2: Is The, colorado rockies so maybe it is justified in.
- 42:23Speaker 2: This CASE and i do think McGreevy is significantly better than.
- 42:26Speaker 2: GOMBER so i Do Think saint louis does have all
- 42:28Speaker 2: of the edges in, this game except that they're having
- 42:30Speaker 2: to travel out, into elevation which is probably the only
- 42:35Speaker 2: Disadvantage That saint louis has is to travel having to
- 42:38Speaker 2: travel Up. From Arizona But saint louis might be a
- 42:41Speaker 2: little bit pissed off after losing that series in, Terrible
- 42:44Speaker 2: Fashions so I'M still i would not Recommend Fading saint
- 42:49Speaker 2: louis in, this, Game, though scott what's?
- 42:51Speaker 1: Up man?
- 42:53Speaker 2: Totally, ready yeah, that's right make this week. Your Bitch happy,
- 42:56Speaker 2: Monday everyone good morning to you. As well The gomber
- 43:00Speaker 2: yeah GOMBERING cos.
- 43:02Speaker 1: I usually call Them goober Houston.
- 43:05Speaker 2: At arizona houston's coming off a big, Win, yesterday man
- 43:09Speaker 2: they ended a three Game. Loss streek they avoided the
- 43:11Speaker 2: sweep by Absolutely destroying. Seattle Yesterday brian wu didn't have
- 43:16Speaker 2: as great as, start yesterday Even Though brian wu Actually
- 43:18Speaker 2: Outlasted hunter brown in, the game and he still did
- 43:21Speaker 2: not pitch particularly well in, the game although his strike
- 43:25Speaker 2: at walk rate, was good but he allowed a lot.
- 43:27Speaker 2: Of Runs so houston coming off a, big, win man
- 43:30Speaker 2: so maybe they're in a little bit of a. Letdown
- 43:32Speaker 2: spot they're having to travel Down to Arizona, from Seattle
- 43:35Speaker 2: so houston does have to travel a little. Bit here
- 43:37Speaker 2: arizona's staying at home and they're hot. Right now they
- 43:40Speaker 2: Just Swept, saint LOUIS and i don't Know that arizona's
- 43:44Speaker 2: gonna take their foot off the gas man because they're
- 43:46Speaker 2: in the hunt, right now they're at. FIVE hundred i
- 43:48Speaker 2: don't think they want to drop to five hundred again
- 43:51Speaker 2: after winning four games in.
- 43:52Speaker 1: A ROW so i do think you're gonna see Focus from.
- 43:55Speaker 2: Arizona here houston has the better, bullpen significantly but they
- 43:59Speaker 2: use a lot of their. Bullpen Yesterday so, arizona's bullpend
- 44:02Speaker 2: even though it's, really bad is a little bit. More
- 44:04Speaker 2: RESTED so i think the bullpen Advantage that houston would
- 44:07Speaker 2: normally have is a little bit. Negated HERE and i
- 44:10Speaker 2: don't like houston starting pitcher or Either Really.
- 44:13Speaker 1: Colton gordon he was pitching well earlier in.
- 44:15Speaker 2: The season he had a really good strike out, walk
- 44:17Speaker 2: ratio but he's been allowing a lot of hard contact
- 44:20Speaker 2: and it's showing up in. His numbers four point SIX
- 44:22Speaker 2: seventy ra one point four to whip.
- 44:25Speaker 1: Not Good holman road his numbers are.
- 44:28Speaker 2: Very similar he's coming up only going one Inning, against
- 44:31Speaker 2: TEXAS so i don't know if that was an opener
- 44:34Speaker 2: game or what. They did but his previous two actual starters,
- 44:38Speaker 2: workload performances he. Did bad he give up nine runs
- 44:41Speaker 2: and eleven and a third against two really bad Offenses
- 44:44Speaker 2: in Colorado. And, cleveland, granted yes he had to pitch a,
- 44:46Speaker 2: corpse field which is a hitter from the field, at
- 44:50Speaker 2: least but still giving up five Runs, to cleveland that's.
- 44:54Speaker 2: Not good so he has really started to. Fall off
- 44:56Speaker 2: man a six to four strike out walk ratio of
- 44:59Speaker 2: these last. Three, outings well he's not a good form
- 45:02Speaker 2: at all. Right now he's struggling against. Bad offenses that
- 45:05Speaker 2: is not a. Good sign he's having to face a
- 45:07Speaker 2: good offense Here. In arizona arizona's Never seen, gordon before
- 45:11Speaker 2: so maybe he'll have a little bit of an edge
- 45:12Speaker 2: in that respect where, you KNOW as i talk about
- 45:15Speaker 2: these young pitchers can have a little bit of an
- 45:18Speaker 2: edge when The bad arizona what to expect out. Of
- 45:20Speaker 2: Them But, colton gordon he's been way too, hittable MAN
- 45:23Speaker 2: so I expect arizona probably will be able to. Hit
- 45:26Speaker 2: Him zach gallon is Pitching. For arizona he's not having a,
- 45:29Speaker 2: good season although he's been pretty Good, for arizona so
- 45:32Speaker 2: this is kind of an inexplicably bad season.
- 45:35Speaker 1: For him five POINT, four era one point three to.
- 45:38Speaker 2: Seven whip he's been a little bit worse at home
- 45:41Speaker 2: five point SIX. Six era he's allowed an awful twenty
- 45:44Speaker 2: one home runs, this year though he's actually a lot
- 45:46Speaker 2: more of them on the road twelve on.
- 45:48Speaker 1: The road but that's.
- 45:50Speaker 2: Been really part of the issue, with him is he's
- 45:52Speaker 2: allowing way too many. Home runs but his last three
- 45:55Speaker 2: outings he has a three POINT five ra and a
- 45:57Speaker 2: twenty two to three strike a, walk ratio despite getting
- 46:01Speaker 2: bombed last time Out at anaheim for, six runs which
- 46:04Speaker 2: is not a. Good sign BUT maybe i don't know
- 46:07Speaker 2: if that means he's falling out of form again, or
- 46:09Speaker 2: not because he was really in bad for him in
- 46:10Speaker 2: the last four Starts, of june had two really good
- 46:13Speaker 2: starts to start the Month, of july and now he's
- 46:16Speaker 2: fallen off again with his most. Recent starts so is
- 46:19Speaker 2: he gonna have another bad? Performance here is he out of?
- 46:21Speaker 2: FORM again i think.
- 46:23Speaker 1: That's hard to.
- 46:23Speaker 2: Figure, OUT man i don't know if that's gonna be
- 46:25Speaker 2: the case. Or not here he's Up, against houston who
- 46:28Speaker 2: at least does have a fairly, Good offense Which is
- 46:31Speaker 2: houston's offense is playing a lot BETTER than i think
- 46:33Speaker 2: anybody expected them too, this Year and gallan's numbers are
- 46:37Speaker 2: not good against them in thirty one, at bats even
- 46:39Speaker 2: though only five of them have seen him before three
- 46:41Speaker 2: point fifty five batting average oneenty twenty. Five Ops so
- 46:46Speaker 2: gallan does not have good Numbers against, Houston Either so
- 46:50Speaker 2: i'm thinking an over might make sense in. This game
- 46:53Speaker 2: and then you get to An unrested, houston bullpen you
- 46:56Speaker 2: get to A bad. Arizona bullpen we have seventy nine
- 46:59Speaker 2: percent of the tickets percent of the cash on. The
- 47:01Speaker 2: over that's total dropped a little bit from nine. To
- 47:03Speaker 2: nine juice to, the Under but i'm thinking the over
- 47:06Speaker 2: is probably the way to. Look here the totals high for.
- 47:08Speaker 2: A reason, i mean it is a hitter friendly park.
- 47:10Speaker 1: As well that's the WAY that i.
- 47:13Speaker 2: Would lean and the market read on the side is
- 47:15Speaker 2: a little. Bit strange arizona down for minus one fifty
- 47:18Speaker 2: minus one. Thirty five fifty two percent of tickets Are,
- 47:21Speaker 2: on Houston which houston does have the, better RECORD so
- 47:24Speaker 2: i buy that they are the. Public team seventy percent
- 47:27Speaker 2: of the cash Though, on arizona even though the mine Dropped.
- 47:29Speaker 2: ON arizona i don't disagree With the arizona, side, EITHER
- 47:33Speaker 2: though i just don't know if i'd want to factor
- 47:35Speaker 2: in their Bullpenal though, houston's BULLPEND like, i said, Is
- 47:38Speaker 2: unrested so maybe you could take a Shot with arizona.
- 47:40Speaker 2: Full game you could go first five innings. As WELL
- 47:44Speaker 2: but i Do think houston coming up that big, Divisional
- 47:47Speaker 2: win arizona probably at least riding some momentum here and
- 47:52Speaker 2: not having. TO travel I think arizona may be the
- 47:55Speaker 2: right side in. That Game i'm Milwaukee. At seattle i'm
- 47:58Speaker 2: gonna give out a play on that, One Too so
- 47:59Speaker 2: i'm gonna off on. That.
- 48:00Speaker 1: One xerox, Good, Morning emily. Good morning.
- 48:05Speaker 2: Astros Beat the. Mariners yesterday which series are they? Gonna
- 48:08Speaker 2: take they already lost the series To. The mariners they
- 48:10Speaker 2: won the last game Against. The mariners mariners have been
- 48:14Speaker 2: pretty hot right Now. The mariners mariners have a good starting,
- 48:17Speaker 2: pitching rotation although there are a lot of guys who
- 48:19Speaker 2: pitch better in their home stadium than on the road
- 48:22Speaker 2: because it's a very pitcher. Friendly park mariners probably not
- 48:26Speaker 2: as good as people think, they are but they could
- 48:28Speaker 2: potentially make.
- 48:29Speaker 1: The, playoffs xerox you don't.
- 48:31Speaker 2: Watch baseball It's the american, past, Time man but it's
- 48:34Speaker 2: it's past.
- 48:35Speaker 1: Its time and the.
- 48:36Speaker 2: New rules like The, ghost runner the, pitch clock not allowing.
- 48:40Speaker 2: Steroids anymore it's all, bullshit. Now man baseball was AWESOME
- 48:43Speaker 2: when i was. A kid i loved the statistics of it.
- 48:46Speaker 2: And whatever, oh, okay yeah just. Talking shit i've liked
- 48:51Speaker 2: baseball for my whole, LIFE though, i mean because it
- 48:53Speaker 2: is so, statistical ORIENTED but i, like going, you know nice,
- 48:56Speaker 2: day out go to, the game, you know go to,
- 48:58Speaker 2: the ballpark take, some games, you know take some. Games
- 49:01Speaker 2: in it's A very. American sport Well, he's canadian so that.
- 49:04Speaker 1: Explains that, but.
- 49:07Speaker 2: Yeah well canada at least Still has toronto, up there
- 49:10Speaker 2: and they did Have the expos until they Moved.
- 49:12Speaker 1: To washington, BUT yeah i mean baseball used to. Be
- 49:17Speaker 1: good it was great through.
- 49:18Speaker 2: The. Nineties man, that's right. You're forgiven astros are?
- 49:25Speaker 1: Your team what's WHAT'S the Bbb Era Big? Beefy boys.
- 49:33Speaker 2: Is?
- 49:33Speaker 1: That really what?
- 49:34Speaker 2: It is something About The, BASH brothers i don't know whatever.
- 49:39Speaker 2: It was was It The bash brothers who were that steroid.
- 49:42Speaker 1: Laden as TEAM when i was.
- 49:45Speaker 2: Growing up It, Was, Conseco giambi staars and who else
- 49:49Speaker 2: did they have on? That team they had a bunch of, like,
- 49:51Speaker 2: McGuire right i think they were all on the.
- 49:53Speaker 1: Same team.
- 49:54Speaker 2: That's crazy of all four of those guys were on
- 49:56Speaker 2: the same team at. One, time oh. That's right you
- 49:59Speaker 2: were the The killer bees is what they. Were, Called
- 50:01Speaker 2: bagwell Bigio And lance berkman was one. Of them he
- 50:05Speaker 2: was on the team. With them they were The. Killer bees.
- 50:10Speaker 2: All right We have minnesota And the, Dodgers here dodgers staying,
- 50:16Speaker 2: in home and of course they just got Swept. By
- 50:18Speaker 2: milwaukee they lost, every, game closed losing by two and
- 50:21Speaker 2: one run in every one of. Those games dodgers not
- 50:25Speaker 2: playing really good baseball, right, now though but they can't
- 50:27Speaker 2: seem to figure Out. The.
- 50:29Speaker 1: Brewers Man the brewers Have the.
- 50:31Speaker 2: Dodgers' Number the brewers have very much improved recently with
- 50:35Speaker 2: their pitching rotation is completely different than it was at
- 50:37Speaker 2: the start of, the Season which i'll talk ABOUT when
- 50:39Speaker 2: i get To. THE brewers I guess dodgers might be
- 50:43Speaker 2: in bounced back. Mode here But the dodgers did use
- 50:45Speaker 2: a lot of, their, bullpen yes and their bullpen has
- 50:47Speaker 2: actually been really really. Bad RECENTLY so i don't Love the,
- 50:50Speaker 2: dodgers' BULLPEN but i Don't like minnesota's. Bullpen either both
- 50:54Speaker 2: of these bullpens have been a big time let down.
- 50:56Speaker 2: This year they should be better than they are with
- 50:58Speaker 2: the talent that they have on the on these two,
- 51:00Speaker 2: teams bullpends they just have not gotten.
- 51:02Speaker 1: It done.
- 51:04Speaker 2: Starting, pitching here we're Looking At david Festa. For minnesota
- 51:07Speaker 2: he's one of their. Young guys it's basically Him And,
- 51:11Speaker 2: zebbie Matthews but festa has been the lesser of.
- 51:14Speaker 1: The two he's not having a good.
- 51:15Speaker 2: Season here five point TWO, five era one point three to,
- 51:19Speaker 2: one whip really bad on the road six point six
- 51:23Speaker 2: y three Roady ra festa not really getting the job,
- 51:27Speaker 2: done here although he has allowed four or fewer earned
- 51:29Speaker 2: runs in his last, three outings including his better two
- 51:32Speaker 2: starts are Actually at.
- 51:33Speaker 1: Detroit and Against, the cubs which is kind of.
- 51:35Speaker 2: Saying something although Against the cubs he walked to guys
- 51:38Speaker 2: only struck. Out threes that was his worst start as
- 51:41Speaker 2: far as the strikeouts. Are concerned the prior to starts
- 51:43Speaker 2: he actually had a thirteen to one strike a, walk
- 51:46Speaker 2: ratio so he was actually starting to strike guys out
- 51:49Speaker 2: and his walk rate actually went down a. Little Bit
- 51:51Speaker 2: so festa actually has pitched a little bit better over
- 51:55Speaker 2: his last, three starts so maybe that means he's coming
- 51:58Speaker 2: into form a. LITTLE bit i still wouldn't, trust, him
- 52:00Speaker 2: though and he's facing a Really powerful, dodger Lineup but
- 52:04Speaker 2: festa at least has never been seen before, about them
- 52:06Speaker 2: so he at least has that unfamiliarity edge Against, the
- 52:10Speaker 2: dodgers WHERE like i, always say these young pitchers sometimes
- 52:13Speaker 2: gonna have an edge against these HITTERS that i haven't seen.
- 52:14Speaker 2: Him before he's gonna be opposed By Sho. Hey otani
- 52:17Speaker 2: and by, THE way espn finally switched his position back
- 52:22Speaker 2: to his, starting pitcher so we actually get to see
- 52:24Speaker 2: his pitching stats more easily on, ESPN's WEBSITE which i
- 52:27Speaker 2: care more about than the.
- 52:28Speaker 1: Hitting stats so, Hell.
- 52:29Speaker 2: YEAH otani i mean he's actually been a very good
- 52:32Speaker 2: pitcher throughout his career. AS well, i mean it's crazy
- 52:35Speaker 2: how somebody could be that good at pitching and.
- 52:38Speaker 1: Also the best hitter. In baseball.
- 52:39Speaker 2: It's insane he started pitching again, this season, of course
- 52:44Speaker 2: and he's been. Pretty good he has not gone a
- 52:45Speaker 2: full starter's, Workload yet he's been very efficient with. His,
- 52:49Speaker 2: pitches actually for the, most part he's not thrown more
- 52:52Speaker 2: than thirty six pitches in any of. His outings he's
- 52:55Speaker 2: ramped up every time pretty.
- 52:57Speaker 1: Much though so he.
- 52:57Speaker 2: Went, one inning, one inning two, to two and then
- 53:00Speaker 2: three innings in his, last start so he might go
- 53:02Speaker 2: three innings. Again here so that's. The question how Deep
- 53:05Speaker 2: is otani gonna go into? THIS game i don't know
- 53:07Speaker 2: because they're working him back up to be a full,
- 53:09Speaker 2: time starter and he has been good.
- 53:11Speaker 1: So far and his nine innings pitch.
- 53:12Speaker 2: He's allowed, five hits, ten strikeouts, two walks one, earn
- 53:16Speaker 2: run which is in his. First outing hasn't allowed to
- 53:19Speaker 2: earn run, since then so he's. Pitched well he may
- 53:23Speaker 2: we may get more of the. Same here minnesota's offense isn't,
- 53:26Speaker 2: very Good so otani may do. Well here he does
- 53:29Speaker 2: have some History. Against minnesota forty seven, at bats they
- 53:33Speaker 2: only have a one to seventy average against him in
- 53:35Speaker 2: five sixty. Two ops they have not really done a
- 53:37Speaker 2: whole lot. Against him they do a six walks against
- 53:40Speaker 2: him in, ten strikeouts so the walk number is really
- 53:43Speaker 2: the only thing Bad about otani's Numbers. Against Minnesota so
- 53:47Speaker 2: otani has done well. Against them question is how deep
- 53:50Speaker 2: is he gonna, go again because you do have to worry.
- 53:53Speaker 1: About the dodgers'. Bullpen here their bullpen has.
- 53:55Speaker 2: Been Awful h they've used a lot of relief, pitchers
- 53:58Speaker 2: YESTERDAY so I think minnesota has the bull be edge in.
- 54:00Speaker 2: This game dodgers are way down from minus two to
- 54:04Speaker 2: twenty to minus one.
- 54:05Speaker 1: To sixty that is a.
- 54:05Speaker 2: Huge Move so i'm wondering what caused, that move because
- 54:09Speaker 2: usually it's not market action alone that could drop a line.
- 54:13Speaker 2: THAT much i don't know if it's maybe because there
- 54:15Speaker 2: was a starting pitching. CHANGE here i. DON'T know i
- 54:19Speaker 2: don't get It because festa does not command any sort
- 54:22Speaker 2: of respect, Like THAT so i don't know if Maybe
- 54:24Speaker 2: the dodgers were gonna have like a full fledged. Starter
- 54:27Speaker 2: GOING but i Don't think otani's starting would drop the
- 54:29Speaker 2: line that, Much EITHER so i don't know why the
- 54:31Speaker 2: line dropped. Like that seventy nine percent of tickets On
- 54:34Speaker 2: the dodgers sixty nine percent of the, Cash Though, so
- 54:36Speaker 2: dodgers there's still a. Public team you're still paying a
- 54:39Speaker 2: bit of a price For. The, dodgers yes they should
- 54:41Speaker 2: be in bounced back. Mode here minnesota did at least
- 54:44Speaker 2: break a losing streak. For that minnesota was not Impressive,
- 54:47Speaker 2: at colorado so they're probably gonna be focused here, as
- 54:49Speaker 2: well wanting to beat a good team Like the Dodgers
- 54:53Speaker 2: when minnesota is coming in. From elevation so the travel
- 54:56Speaker 2: spot is very Good. For minnesota so you try to
- 55:00Speaker 2: figure that. GAME out i can't figure.
- 55:02Speaker 1: It, OUT.
- 55:04Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean i don't KNOW what i would even
- 55:06Speaker 2: want to do with. THAT game i don't even KNOW
- 55:07Speaker 2: if i would have. A, Recommendation yeah canada's.
- 55:10Speaker 1: Vomited inducing.
- 55:11Speaker 2: That's true the roided Out, eras yeah the roided, out era.
- 55:15Speaker 2: That's True the astros Had A carl everett for a
- 55:17Speaker 2: while around that, time too and then he was On Another.
- 55:19Speaker 1: RED sox I remember i was at.
- 55:21Speaker 2: A game It Was Red, sox METS and i used
- 55:25Speaker 2: to go to a lot of games with, my dad
- 55:27Speaker 2: and he also got some pretty good seats sometimes from,
- 55:29Speaker 2: his work and this was one of those nights where
- 55:31Speaker 2: we were like in the fifth row behind Home Plate Red.
- 55:34Speaker 2: Sox mets Wait. WASN'T red i think It Was Red. Sox,
- 55:37Speaker 2: mets Yeah And. Carl everett he was a switch hitter
- 55:40Speaker 2: and when he, batted righty he would basically stand on
- 55:43Speaker 2: top of the plate when he, batted righty he was
- 55:45Speaker 2: so close to the plate and he had his elbow
- 55:48Speaker 2: kind of out like this over. The plate his foot
- 55:50Speaker 2: was like basically on, the plate almost like totally out
- 55:53Speaker 2: of the. Batter's box but they never did anything. About
- 55:55Speaker 2: it But the mets started throwing at, him BASICALLY so
- 55:58Speaker 2: i think he either got hit by pitch or one
- 56:00Speaker 2: Of the mets pitchers threw maybe behind him, or something
- 56:04Speaker 2: and there was a bench. CLEARING brawl i remember you
- 56:07Speaker 2: could see ME on TV because i was in the
- 56:10Speaker 2: rows behind him plate where you could see you could
- 56:12Speaker 2: see those PEOPLE. ON tv I remember, I got i
- 56:15Speaker 2: jumped UP and i was like, fist like fist. PUMP
- 56:18Speaker 2: it i, was like, fuck you Fuck. The METS like
- 56:21Speaker 2: i think my dad probably got got a little. Bit
- 56:23Speaker 2: pissed but that was a one of a couple Of
- 56:27Speaker 2: times i've BEEN on tv At A red. Sox game
- 56:30Speaker 2: the other time was there was a game Against The
- 56:33Speaker 2: white Sox where Scott, had aburg who was actually On
- 56:36Speaker 2: the a's for a bit During the.
- 56:37Speaker 1: Moneyball era he Was.
- 56:38Speaker 2: The red sox backup Catcher for veritech for. A while
- 56:42Speaker 2: a pretty good. Backup catcher he could hit. Pretty well
- 56:44Speaker 2: hadiberg hit a three run home run in a GAME
- 56:47Speaker 2: that i was AT and i. WAS behind i was
- 56:48Speaker 2: in the first row behind, the BULLPENS and i almost
- 56:53Speaker 2: caught the home run like it landed in. THE bullpen
- 56:56Speaker 2: I thought i was gonna be able to, catch IT
- 56:57Speaker 2: but i would have had to like kind of. Climb
- 56:59Speaker 2: up there's like a pretty tall fence there to get to.
- 57:02Speaker 2: THE bullpen i just couldn't quite, get it but it
- 57:04Speaker 2: LOOKED like i was gonna be able to. Catch it
- 57:06Speaker 2: so you could see ME on tv when that. Happened
- 57:08Speaker 2: too you could see me being unable to. Catch that
- 57:11Speaker 2: and it landed in, the bullpen and it landed In
- 57:14Speaker 2: The red, sox bullpen and whoever in the bullpen threw
- 57:16Speaker 2: it up into, the stands And A white sox fan
- 57:19Speaker 2: caught it and threw it back into, the bullpen and
- 57:21Speaker 2: everybody booed the Kuy oh man fun times me and
- 57:25Speaker 2: at All These red, sox games that's the.
- 57:27Speaker 1: Toad. LORE anyway i forgot to do the.
- 57:31Speaker 2: Graphics again but that was, the RUNDOWN which i might
- 57:34Speaker 2: change it to the breakdown once we're done with. Baseball
- 57:36Speaker 2: season by, the way now we're gonna get into the best. Bets,
- 57:40Speaker 2: segment man let's, do IT and i have a lot of.
- 57:42Speaker 2: Bets here this is, a long long, VIDEO today, i, think,
- 57:46Speaker 2: right well, maybe not but we're gonna talk about four, games.
- 57:48Speaker 2: Here man first, Game up i'm gonna recommend a player
- 57:51Speaker 2: On The pittsburgh pirates minus one twenty Five and i'm
- 57:54Speaker 2: going full game, on this partially just because of, the
- 57:56Speaker 2: situation but normally you'd look at this, and, THINK well
- 58:00Speaker 2: i wouldn't want To play pittsburgh full, game here right
- 58:02Speaker 2: like you're Looking, at, well obviously part of the REASON
- 58:04Speaker 2: why i want this Is because i'm Going With paul.
- 58:06Speaker 2: Skins HERE so i think there's a big starting pitching
- 58:09Speaker 2: Edge for. Pittsburgh, here, Sure yes pittsburgh obviously has a
- 58:13Speaker 2: huge disadvantage with, their hitting but their disadvantage with their
- 58:17Speaker 2: hitting is throughout the. Entire game SO do i want
- 58:20Speaker 2: to restrict that to the first?
- 58:21Speaker 1: Five?
- 58:21Speaker 2: Innings MAYBE and i may do that if the bullpen
- 58:26Speaker 2: situation wasn't what. It IS so i was looking at,
- 58:28Speaker 2: The bullpens i'm actually shocked to Find out pittsburgh's bullpen
- 58:32Speaker 2: is actually SEVENTH. In Whip so pittsburgh's bullpen is actually
- 58:36Speaker 2: not even bad and three point nine TO, seven era
- 58:39Speaker 2: they're below A, Four Eira so pittsburgh's bullpen somehow is
- 58:43Speaker 2: not even that Bad and detroit's bullpen ad worse than they.
- 58:46Speaker 2: Are now detroit is down middle of the pack now
- 58:49Speaker 2: with an ABOVE four era and a whip that's not
- 58:51Speaker 2: really that good at one point. Too EIGHT so i
- 58:53Speaker 2: don't Even think detroit has a bullpen edge Here in
- 58:55Speaker 2: detroit at least use some of their, relievers yesterday not,
- 58:58Speaker 2: too many but they run in a couple of relief
- 59:01Speaker 2: guys Against.
- 59:02Speaker 1: School ball and of course when we Get.
- 59:04Speaker 2: Into monday part OF what i look AT is i
- 59:07Speaker 2: want to fade teams that played in the, night, Game
- 59:11Speaker 2: Right so i'm gonna be doing that with both of
- 59:13Speaker 2: these teams today if you haven't figured that out, by
- 59:17Speaker 2: NOW because i haven't talked about either of these. Teams
- 59:19Speaker 2: today detroit Was at texas in THE big espn. Night
- 59:22Speaker 2: game that was a pretty big Game because detroit has
- 59:24Speaker 2: one of the best records. In baseball texas is trying
- 59:27Speaker 2: to work their way into playoff. Contention here texas is
- 59:31Speaker 2: still certainly alive as far, as playoffs maybe even as
- 59:34Speaker 2: far as winning. THEIR division, i mean they're at least competitive.
- 59:37Speaker 1: In there.
- 59:39Speaker 2: Probably they're gonna be fighting for, a wildcard but they're
- 59:41Speaker 2: coming up a, big series and obviously they have a
- 59:45Speaker 2: little bit less time here because they had to play late,
- 59:47Speaker 2: at night And with detroit they have to travel Up,
- 59:49Speaker 2: to Pittsburgh so detroit's having To travel. Pittsburgh isn't so
- 59:53Speaker 2: that's gonna lead me to playing the full game, as
- 59:55Speaker 2: well given the, situation here and because you get a
- 59:58Speaker 2: little bit of a cheaper, price, On, like okay. Why
- 1:00:00Speaker 2: not pittsburgh just got swept at home By The, white,
- 1:00:03Speaker 2: SOX man, i mean it doesn't get more embarrassing, than
- 1:00:05Speaker 2: That and pittsburgh didn't use a ton of their relief.
- 1:00:08Speaker 2: Stuff Yesterday so i'm okay with Going with pittsburgh in. This.
- 1:00:12Speaker 2: One man hopefully our starter gets us deeper into the,
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: game too because that can kind of cascade down and
- 1:00:19Speaker 2: kind of reflect in the bullpens as well if you
- 1:00:21Speaker 2: have a starter that's so good that you get deep
- 1:00:23Speaker 2: into the.
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: Game HERE so i like. All.
- 1:00:25Speaker 2: THAT pittsburgh i think they're in big time bounce back
- 1:00:28Speaker 2: mode after just being. COMPLETELY embarrassed, I Mean, WHITE sox
- 1:00:32Speaker 2: i Don't think i've swept anybody, this year at least
- 1:00:34Speaker 2: not on.
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: THE road, i mean. That's crazy It's.
- 1:00:37Speaker 2: Like pittsburgh basically everybody's talking about how they've hit, rock
- 1:00:40Speaker 2: bottom how bad They're but pittsburgh is still above five hundred,
- 1:00:44Speaker 2: at home so they're actually not that bad.
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: At HOME so i think they could certainly.
- 1:00:47Speaker 2: Compete here they're going Up Against, jack flaherty whom it
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: seems like EVEN when i try to make a Play On,
- 1:00:54Speaker 2: jack flaherty it doesn't. Work out he has not been
- 1:00:56Speaker 2: good on a good Team. Like detroit having a five
- 1:01:00Speaker 2: and nine record is, pretty. PATHETIC dude, i mean when
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: you have a team that has a great Record like
- 1:01:06Speaker 2: detroit does it you still can't pick up wins and
- 1:01:08Speaker 2: you're still.
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: Taking losses there's something wrong, with you.
- 1:01:12Speaker 2: Baby boy four point SIX' five era one point two
- 1:01:16Speaker 2: to four whip. Isn't That bad but flaherty has not,
- 1:01:18Speaker 2: been very good and he's been horrendous on the road
- 1:01:21Speaker 2: six point oh EIGHT road e ra despite the fact
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: that he's allowed thirteen of the nineteen on runs he's,
- 1:01:26Speaker 2: allowed at home but that's because he's pitched way more,
- 1:01:29Speaker 2: Innings at home so that's part of. The reason why
- 1:01:31Speaker 2: but he's been really bad, on the road so his
- 1:01:34Speaker 2: home road splits.
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: Are pretty bad his numbers this. Month look, okay oh yeah.
- 1:01:38Speaker 2: He's got a three POINT, eight six era twenty four
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: to five strike. Out, walk ratio yeah he's. In good
- 1:01:43Speaker 2: form but He, Did, Face. WASHINGTON tampa, seattle i mean
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: those Are okay Offenses, tampa AND seattle but i Don't
- 1:01:50Speaker 2: know that i'm necessarily totally impressed by. THOSE results, there,
- 1:01:54Speaker 2: i mean yeah he's not in, the worst form but
- 1:01:56Speaker 2: His numbers against pittsburgh are. Actually surprisingly bad seventy, nine
- 1:02:00Speaker 2: at bets three h four. Batting average allowed he's a
- 1:02:03Speaker 2: lot five home runs to, five different batters so more
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: of the hitters that He's faced in pittsburgh's lineup have
- 1:02:09Speaker 2: hit home runs off of him than, hitters that haven't
- 1:02:13Speaker 2: and a nine point fifty seven Ops allowed by flawerty
- 1:02:17Speaker 2: in addition TO the three zho four batting average and
- 1:02:19Speaker 2: twenty to nine strike, at walk ratio so pretty high
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: Walk rate Two so of flaerty specifically does not match
- 1:02:25Speaker 2: Up well, against pitts person even though he was good
- 1:02:28Speaker 2: over the. LAST few starts I don't like. Flaherty, HERE
- 1:02:31Speaker 2: man Obviously I think paul skeens has. THE edge, Here
- 1:02:33Speaker 2: i mean skeens is one of the best, pitchers in
- 1:02:36Speaker 2: baseball and his record is at least explainable by the
- 1:02:39Speaker 2: fact that he's on a horrendous team two POINT zero
- 1:02:42Speaker 2: one era point nine. To three whips his record is absolutely.
- 1:02:45Speaker 2: Not his fault he's been really good home in a
- 1:02:47Speaker 2: way it doesn't really, matter that much a little bit.
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: Worse at home he did Bitch.
- 1:02:51Speaker 2: In The all star, game one inning a complete clean sheet,
- 1:02:55Speaker 2: with two. Strikeouts FOURTEEN pitches but i actually, like, that
- 1:02:59Speaker 2: because again it keeps. Him on schedule so some of
- 1:03:01Speaker 2: these guys, WILL be like i don't love the fact
- 1:03:03Speaker 2: that they Pitch In The, all star game especially when
- 1:03:05Speaker 2: it's a guy that gets Like Their first.
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: All star Appearance.
- 1:03:08Speaker 2: And with Skins On the all star, team last year
- 1:03:10Speaker 2: he MIGHT have been i don't remember if he was or,
- 1:03:13Speaker 2: If he wasn't but Because He used paul skeens and
- 1:03:16Speaker 2: he's just a, VERY consistent guy i think that that
- 1:03:19Speaker 2: just keeps, him ON schedule and i. Think that's good
- 1:03:21Speaker 2: they have been limiting his, pitch count though so we
- 1:03:23Speaker 2: got to keep. That in mind they don't want to burn,
- 1:03:26Speaker 2: his arm out especially on a team that is totally.
- 1:03:29Speaker 2: Out of contention they just don't want. To overwork skiings
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: they might be trying to. Trade him too so he's
- 1:03:33Speaker 2: gone exactly five innings in his. Last three starts he
- 1:03:36Speaker 2: was good. In all three he allowed two or fewer
- 1:03:38Speaker 2: on runs, in all three zero and.
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: Two of them.
- 1:03:43Speaker 2: Twenty one to one strike out walk ratio over the course.
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: OF this month i keep thinking those numbers Actually Include The,
- 1:03:49Speaker 2: all star game but they don't because you can do.
- 1:03:51Speaker 2: The math here twenty one to one is just. Those
- 1:03:53Speaker 2: three starts so he's had a really good strike out
- 1:03:55Speaker 2: walk ratio. One point two we, are this month he's
- 1:03:58Speaker 2: still in totally. Good four here detroit has thirty two at,
- 1:04:02Speaker 2: bats against him only have five, hits off him even
- 1:04:04Speaker 2: though one is a Home.
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: Run from veerling he.
- 1:04:07Speaker 2: Does have a fifteen TO five strad a walk right
- 1:04:09Speaker 2: yere against The medias held detroit way down to a
- 1:04:12Speaker 2: very low one fifty six batting average five eighty.
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: Three Oh ps so i'm Gonna go with pittsburgh.
- 1:04:17Speaker 2: In, this game man if you want to go first
- 1:04:19Speaker 2: five innings and, avoid the, bullpens THAT'S fine but i
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: don't really see that much of a reason, to, do
- 1:04:24Speaker 2: THAT because as i, Just showed you pittsburgh's bullpen is
- 1:04:26Speaker 2: Actually better than detroit's now on. The Entire season so
- 1:04:30Speaker 2: i'm gonna. Leave them in i'm gonna go with the.
- 1:04:32Speaker 2: Situation as well the price is actually cheaper if you,
- 1:04:35Speaker 2: go full game because you have. To pay more if
- 1:04:38Speaker 2: you want to just, focus on schemes you can do that.
- 1:04:40Speaker 2: If you want you have to lay probably about minus
- 1:04:43Speaker 2: one thirty five if you Want to take pittsburgh on
- 1:04:46Speaker 2: the full game on the. FIRST five, innings i mean
- 1:04:49Speaker 2: money is agreeing With me. On pittsburgh here if you
- 1:04:52Speaker 2: want to go, first five innings you could lay the Half,
- 1:04:54Speaker 2: run on pittsburgh and then you have to hope. That
- 1:04:55Speaker 2: they're winning so You do need pittsburgh to get, some
- 1:04:58Speaker 2: runs here which of course, we.
- 1:04:59Speaker 1: Do anyway but we'll go full game and hope.
- 1:05:02Speaker 2: That it happens pittsburgh's up for minus one twenty to minus,
- 1:05:04Speaker 2: one twenty five sixty two percent of The, cash on
- 1:05:07Speaker 2: pittsburgh with sixty four Percent. Gets on detroit public is
- 1:05:11Speaker 2: only gonna Come, in. On detroit man and it's also, a,
- 1:05:13Speaker 2: misleading line right even Though everybody, knows paul skeins.
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: He's gonna get a lot of respect.
- 1:05:18Speaker 2: In The market but detroit has a Great record and
- 1:05:21Speaker 2: pittsburgh's record is one of the. Worst in baseball so
- 1:05:23Speaker 2: it's like the public must be tempted To grab the
- 1:05:27Speaker 2: tigers as. An underdog, here but again everything Lines up
- 1:05:31Speaker 2: against detroit for like, The situation here so we're Gonna
- 1:05:33Speaker 2: go with pittsburgh in, that first game and the market.
- 1:05:36Speaker 2: Seems to, Agree Next game San, DIEGO at miami i
- 1:05:40Speaker 2: like to, starting pitching here and this is A game
- 1:05:42Speaker 2: where i will exclude The Bullpens againse san diego has,
- 1:05:44Speaker 2: a great bullpen even.
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: Though they're a little.
- 1:05:47Speaker 2: Bit Used up san diego is number four In bullpen
- 1:05:50Speaker 2: in whip and they're one OF the top i think
- 1:05:52Speaker 2: two in bullpenny ra probably are, maybe three, now actually
- 1:05:56Speaker 2: two it's Them. And The Giants so san diego is
- 1:05:59Speaker 2: really like they're. Top five bullpen and like, The big
- 1:06:02Speaker 2: metrics miami is. A bad bullpen they're all the, way
- 1:06:05Speaker 2: down well they're in like the bottom, third at least
- 1:06:08Speaker 2: not a.
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: Very good bullpen they're not one of.
- 1:06:09Speaker 2: These horrendous bullpens so if you want To go with,
- 1:06:12Speaker 2: miami full game you, could Do that but i'm gonna go.
- 1:06:14Speaker 2: FIRST five innings I will keep miami's bullpen. Out Of it,
- 1:06:18Speaker 2: SAN diego's offense i don't think is, really that terrific
- 1:06:22Speaker 2: even though they are a little probably a little Bit
- 1:06:23Speaker 2: better than miami's right other they haven't. Really looked recently
- 1:06:26Speaker 2: miami's bullpen, Or excuse me miami's hitting is right there
- 1:06:29Speaker 2: in the middle. Of The pack san diego is. A bit,
- 1:06:31Speaker 2: better i assume right where?
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: Are They at.
- 1:06:35Speaker 2: MAYBE i'm Wrong I know san diego's down at twenty third,
- 1:06:37Speaker 2: in ops Now so actually miami actually has the better,
- 1:06:40Speaker 2: Offense here too but keeping the bullpens out of The
- 1:06:44Speaker 2: Equation because san diego does have a big Bullpen, DISCREPANCY
- 1:06:47Speaker 2: here miami i don't think.
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: You use that much of.
- 1:06:49Speaker 2: Their bullpen yesterday so if you do want to go full,
- 1:06:51Speaker 2: game on this you can have at it. And do
- 1:06:53Speaker 2: that i'm only gonna focus on, the STARTING pitching and
- 1:06:56Speaker 2: i Do Not like randy vasquez very. Much at all
- 1:06:59Speaker 2: he looks good with a three POINT, eight e ra
- 1:07:01Speaker 2: but a one point three to nine. Whip Is terrible
- 1:07:04Speaker 2: and i've been talking about. This All, year man.
- 1:07:07Speaker 1: Vazquez his walk his strikeout walk numbers.
- 1:07:09Speaker 2: Are absolutely terrible he has a four point five to,
- 1:07:12Speaker 2: seven road era so he's been bad. On, The Road
- 1:07:15Speaker 2: yes san diego's won his, last four. Starts that's true
- 1:07:19Speaker 2: they've won a lot of his. Starts this year they've
- 1:07:21Speaker 2: won seven of. His last nine but look, At, his
- 1:07:24Speaker 2: starts man his, last three starts, two of them he
- 1:07:27Speaker 2: didn't even make. It five innings his, starts this month
- 1:07:30Speaker 2: he has two strikeouts. And seven walks. That is horrific
- 1:07:34Speaker 2: he doesn't strike he's not. Striking guys out he's walking
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: a ton of guys and you cannot keep getting away.
- 1:07:39Speaker 2: With THAT man so i don't trust. It at all
- 1:07:42Speaker 2: and his one good start out of the last three
- 1:07:44Speaker 2: was against A very. WEAK texas Offense i know miami's offense,
- 1:07:47Speaker 2: isn't GOOD either but I don't trust. Vazquez, at all
- 1:07:51Speaker 2: yes he did pitch well At home against miami, earlier,
- 1:07:53Speaker 2: this year decently give up three runs five to one strike.
- 1:07:57Speaker 2: Out walk ratio he was in good form when he made, that,
- 1:08:00Speaker 2: start TOO though but i think he's out of.
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: FORM right now i.
- 1:08:03Speaker 2: Don't like it he does have Good, numbers against miami
- 1:08:05Speaker 2: a small nineteen at, Bat sample size sanchez is of
- 1:08:08Speaker 2: a home run off him to eleven batting average six to.
- 1:08:11Speaker 2: Seventy One ops but I'm gonna, fade, vazquez here man
- 1:08:14Speaker 2: because THIS starting pitching i think is. A huge mismatch
- 1:08:17Speaker 2: I don't like. Vazquez, at all again his strikeout walk,
- 1:08:21Speaker 2: ratio is horrific even on. THE entire season i think.
- 1:08:23Speaker 2: It's really bad let me see on, the entire season fifty.
- 1:08:28Speaker 2: TO forty, six i mean give, me, A break man
- 1:08:30Speaker 2: that is a horrendous. Strikeout walk ratio so we're gonna.
- 1:08:33Speaker 2: Go against him we're Gonna Go with, yuri perez here who's.
- 1:08:36Speaker 2: A young pitcher he is.
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: Starting.
- 1:08:38Speaker 2: TO dominate man i think people haven't caught up to
- 1:08:42Speaker 2: him yet because nobody knows who he is.
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: At this point he's, still really, young twenty.
- 1:08:47Speaker 2: Two and he's already had his CAREER derailed by i
- 1:08:51Speaker 2: think a major. Injury and surgery three point one eighty,
- 1:08:55Speaker 2: ra this year the one point nine, to one whip
- 1:08:57Speaker 2: even though he started off the season.
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: Pitching pretty poorly looking at, his.
- 1:09:01Speaker 2: Career numbers though he only had one other season more
- 1:09:04Speaker 2: than half A season with miami. Two years ago missed
- 1:09:07Speaker 2: all of last year and his numbers were, great that
- 1:09:09Speaker 2: season and his numbers are really similar to this season
- 1:09:12Speaker 2: two actually even a little. Bit better now despite starting out.
- 1:09:16Speaker 2: The season bad he's been even better at home, this
- 1:09:18Speaker 2: year too with a two point FIVE, to three era
- 1:09:20Speaker 2: and he has absolutely been lights.
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: Out.
- 1:09:23Speaker 2: This month man after, he started off they were kind
- 1:09:25Speaker 2: of ramping, him up THOUGH because, he i mean give,
- 1:09:27Speaker 2: him a break right he's coming. Back from injury he
- 1:09:29Speaker 2: didn't allow more than four runs, in any start but they.
- 1:09:32Speaker 2: Ramped him up he went three innings and he, started.
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: Going four four, and a third four and.
- 1:09:36Speaker 2: Two thirds whatever then this month he's gone five or
- 1:09:40Speaker 2: more innings in. All three starts miami's won his last
- 1:09:43Speaker 2: four starts, in a row and this month he has
- 1:09:45Speaker 2: a twenty one to one strikeout walk ratio and he's.
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: Only allowed six hits.
- 1:09:49Speaker 2: In. Eighteen innings pitch he has absolutely. Dominated this month
- 1:09:53Speaker 2: A point five era. He is in he's just an excellent,
- 1:09:58Speaker 2: forum right Now and the padres have pretty much never.
- 1:10:01Speaker 1: Seen him before so he's.
- 1:10:02Speaker 2: This really talented young pitcher and he's got an, unfamiliarity
- 1:10:06Speaker 2: edge Too because the padres only have two hitters who have.
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: Seen Him before elias diaz is the only one who
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: has a. Hit off him they have.
- 1:10:12Speaker 2: No extra bass, it's one, strikeout no walks one for four.
- 1:10:16Speaker 2: Off HIM overall So I like uri perez a lot.
- 1:10:20Speaker 2: IN this one i think the money's. Agreeing, with me
- 1:10:22Speaker 2: Yeah We have san diego is one of.
- 1:10:24Speaker 1: Those dreaded public. Road underdogs here miami.
- 1:10:28Speaker 2: Is the favorite so people are gonna look at, this
- 1:10:30Speaker 2: and Thing how could miami possibly be a favorite? In
- 1:10:32Speaker 2: this game so if you want to, go full game
- 1:10:34Speaker 2: you could do. That as well miami has this terrible
- 1:10:37Speaker 2: record well. Below five hundred padres are well. Above, five
- 1:10:40Speaker 2: hundred Well remember the padres started. OFF the season i
- 1:10:43Speaker 2: think they were what, were they like fourteen and two
- 1:10:46Speaker 2: or something to. Start the season so they've been. Horrendous
- 1:10:49Speaker 2: since then they've had a losing, record since then and
- 1:10:51Speaker 2: they have a losing record. On the roads they are
- 1:10:53Speaker 2: certainly a fadable team, on the road especially with an
- 1:10:56Speaker 2: Awful pitcher like. Vazquez on them perez is far away the.
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: Better.
- 1:11:00Speaker 2: Pitcher here man i'm In. Love, With perez man I'm Gay.
- 1:11:04Speaker 2: For uri perez let's let's. Go with, it but yeah
- 1:11:07Speaker 2: the market read is completely on my. Side as well
- 1:11:09Speaker 2: miami's up for minus one twenty seven of minus one
- 1:11:11Speaker 2: thirty one looks like a, totally, misleading line like how
- 1:11:14Speaker 2: could you possibly Be getting the padres as? An, underdog
- 1:11:17Speaker 2: here well the osmakers are telling you what you need,
- 1:11:19Speaker 2: to know here man eighty, Three percent ticke it's only
- 1:11:21Speaker 2: fifty four percent of The Cash. On san diego so
- 1:11:25Speaker 2: the market Read all, over miami money professional money Coming,
- 1:11:28Speaker 2: in on miami Fading The public San diego team miami
- 1:11:33Speaker 2: is going to be.
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: A play there, A bad whip, i would.
- 1:11:37Speaker 2: Say once it once it's one point, THREE or above
- 1:11:42Speaker 2: i would consider that. TO be bad a whip is
- 1:11:46Speaker 2: the a number of walks and hits. Per innings pitched so,
- 1:11:49Speaker 2: if you're, up you know getting towards like one and
- 1:11:51Speaker 2: a half walks and, hits every inning that means you're
- 1:11:55Speaker 2: putting a ton of.
- 1:11:55Speaker 1: Guys on base.
- 1:11:56Speaker 2: That's really bad anything that's below ONE point two i think.
- 1:12:00Speaker 1: Is quite good below one is. Like totally, elite but
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: yeah anything that's like one point, THREE or above i.
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: REALLY don't like i.
- 1:12:08Speaker 2: Think it's bad that's kind Of where the mendoza ligne, Is,
- 1:12:12Speaker 2: For me scott you're a.
- 1:12:14Speaker 1: Devil race man they gotta bring the. Devil.
- 1:12:15Speaker 2: Rays back man they had to get rid of the devil,
- 1:12:19Speaker 2: part of it, but Come On the new jersey. Devil
- 1:12:21Speaker 2: still is you gotta get rid of the devil, part,
- 1:12:23Speaker 2: of it which, by, the, way okay fine get rid
- 1:12:26Speaker 2: of the devil.
- 1:12:26Speaker 1: Part of it you're.
- 1:12:27Speaker 2: Still the rays why wouldn't you at least still be
- 1:12:29Speaker 2: the rays and have the, ray you know the animal
- 1:12:31Speaker 2: will still. Be your logo you have to change it
- 1:12:33Speaker 2: to the fucking Gay sun. The sun's rays? Are you
- 1:12:37Speaker 2: serious that's the ONE situation where i want to block.
- 1:12:40Speaker 2: Out the sun the Rays of the sun is such, a.
- 1:12:42Speaker 2: Gay name dude they should have at least just kept
- 1:12:45Speaker 2: it as the uh, as the, rays you, know the
- 1:12:47Speaker 2: animal although maybe they're maybe they changed it to be
- 1:12:53Speaker 2: to be sympathetic with, What's His, name steve irwin crocodile
- 1:12:57Speaker 2: hunter because he got killed by ray ding, ray you
- 1:13:00Speaker 2: know shot their barbs into his heart or, whatever it
- 1:13:05Speaker 2: was the crocodile hunter. ON the barbie i Can't do
- 1:13:09Speaker 2: an australian, accent, very well yep royded out Guys. On, the,
- 1:13:13Speaker 2: ASSTROS yeah OKAY i think i answered all those questions
- 1:13:16Speaker 2: or got, all those, Comments all, Right, SO yeah Miami
- 1:13:19Speaker 2: i like miami, in, That game man and then.
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: What are the other TWO games that? I HAD here
- 1:13:26Speaker 1: now i have to refresh. My memory here we're going.
- 1:13:29Speaker 2: Right back to the WELL with what, i did yesterday
- 1:13:30Speaker 2: and we're Going With THE a's and i know we're going. Full,
- 1:13:33Speaker 2: GAME here Yes. I know texas texas has one big
- 1:13:36Speaker 2: advantage here. AS their bullpend i Understand that the a's
- 1:13:39Speaker 2: have the absolute worst.
- 1:13:41Speaker 1: Bullpen in baseball.
- 1:13:43Speaker 2: I'm still gonna go full game On this because texas,
- 1:13:45Speaker 2: played last night so they have less of. A turnaround
- 1:13:48Speaker 2: time they, had a huge, highly you, know televised game
- 1:13:51Speaker 2: like highly publicized Game, against school ball, hard fought.
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: Game close game they lost the game.
- 1:13:56Speaker 2: Two to one texas had essentially kind of a bullpend
- 1:13:59Speaker 2: Game of the lats did get them.
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: Like five innings lats lasted, in.
- 1:14:03Speaker 2: The game but texas did have to use a little
- 1:14:05Speaker 2: bit of their bullpen yesterday in, A close game so
- 1:14:09Speaker 2: that at least takes a little bit of Something away.
- 1:14:11Speaker 2: From texas bullpen At least the a's are not having
- 1:14:13Speaker 2: to pitch in their home stadium, Here AS well so
- 1:14:15Speaker 2: i think that a stadium is somewhat affecting their bullpen
- 1:14:19Speaker 2: numbers and why their bullpen numbers. Are so bad but
- 1:14:23Speaker 2: we're gonna Go with the a's, in, This One man
- 1:14:25Speaker 2: so texas coming.
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: Up, a big game.
- 1:14:27Speaker 2: QUICK turnaround time i Know that the a's are traveling Here, Down,
- 1:14:30Speaker 2: from cleveland yes but they did get, blown OUT yesterday
- 1:14:33Speaker 2: so I think the a's should come in a little.
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: Bit focused there and that's a really.
- 1:14:37Speaker 2: Ugly loss yesterday the as the, game was Over so
- 1:14:39Speaker 2: the a's didn't have to use any of their best relief.
- 1:14:42Speaker 2: Pitchers AT least and I Still, like, jacob Lopez man
- 1:14:45Speaker 2: so i'm gonna back him. In this one he doesn't
- 1:14:48Speaker 2: have great numbers FOUR, point two era and his whip
- 1:14:51Speaker 2: Is above my mendoza line here one point, three to
- 1:14:54Speaker 2: three but he is starting to pitch better. As, OF
- 1:14:56Speaker 2: late yes i know he's actually been worse on the
- 1:14:58Speaker 2: road away from that horrendous home stadium. For whatever reason
- 1:15:02Speaker 2: five Point ZERO one roady i certainly, not as good
- 1:15:06Speaker 2: but he is pitching a bit better. As, of late
- 1:15:09Speaker 2: man he doesn't have a thirteen to three strike out
- 1:15:12Speaker 2: walk racing and two, starts this month though he's only
- 1:15:14Speaker 2: gone five or fewer innings in the last.
- 1:15:16Speaker 1: Threes he has he is out of form a.
- 1:15:18Speaker 2: Little bit here one of those starts he, had one
- 1:15:21Speaker 2: strikeout which was a, Little bit Concerning but the a's
- 1:15:23Speaker 2: have backed. Him Pretty well the a's are six and
- 1:15:26Speaker 2: one in his, last seven starts which is a. Pretty
- 1:15:28Speaker 2: decent sign won his Last, start against toronto.
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: Who is a team with a pretty good.
- 1:15:32Speaker 2: Record as well his last couple of starts on the
- 1:15:35Speaker 2: road have actually been pretty, good as well Except for.
- 1:15:37Speaker 2: The tampa, One, BUT again tampa i mean that's a
- 1:15:39Speaker 2: tough part.
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: TO pitch, in i mean That's That.
- 1:15:41Speaker 2: Weird steinberner stadium so his Other starts at detroit he.
- 1:15:44Speaker 2: Was Really Good, at kansas city he. Was REALLY good
- 1:15:47Speaker 2: so i think that he. Is pitching better lopez does.
- 1:15:49Speaker 2: Have strikeout potential he's been racking up a lot of
- 1:15:52Speaker 2: strikeouts man well over one strike up per inning over
- 1:15:55Speaker 2: the last like two, months pretty much so he is
- 1:15:57Speaker 2: starting to. PITCH really Well i know texas does have
- 1:16:01Speaker 2: good numbers against him in twelve at bats five to six.
- 1:16:03Speaker 2: STRIKE out walkerration a LOT of times i don't want
- 1:16:05Speaker 2: to fade like a bad matchup, situation like this a
- 1:16:09Speaker 2: three point thirty three average EIGHT. Eighty Nine ops but
- 1:16:12Speaker 2: i'm gonna do It here because texas has a, really,
- 1:16:14Speaker 2: Bad offense man so the big advantage, we have here
- 1:16:17Speaker 2: one of the big Advantages of. The a's here they're
- 1:16:19Speaker 2: still sitting AT, ninth in ops so they're one of
- 1:16:23Speaker 2: the better. Offenses in baseball texas is a, bottom four OFFENSE.
- 1:16:27Speaker 1: A horrific Ops so the a's do have.
- 1:16:29Speaker 2: The better offense even though a LOT of times i
- 1:16:31Speaker 2: don't want to back, THE better offense i am gonna.
- 1:16:33Speaker 2: Do it here texas certainly has the, BETTER bullpen, obviously
- 1:16:36Speaker 2: I mean, like i said they're. Top several, bullpens, BUT
- 1:16:40Speaker 2: still situationally I like. The. A's here man i'm not
- 1:16:44Speaker 2: gonna put too Much stock into Lopez'. Numbers against texas
- 1:16:47Speaker 2: all those numbers came early This, season In, april when,
- 1:16:50Speaker 2: lopez you know wasn't really.
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: Doing as Well he.
- 1:16:52Speaker 2: Faced texas twice he definitely walked too many guys, in
- 1:16:55Speaker 2: those outings BUT those were i Believe situations where lopez
- 1:16:59Speaker 2: was coming out.
- 1:16:59Speaker 1: Of the bullpen so this is a.
- 1:17:01Speaker 2: Completely different situation verm he's now adjusted to. BEING a
- 1:17:03Speaker 2: starter i think he should do pretty well. In this
- 1:17:06Speaker 2: game he's Going Up, against jack lighter who is a,
- 1:17:09Speaker 2: talented young pitcher but he's Been worse than lopez four
- 1:17:12Speaker 2: point THREE seven e ra one point three. TO six
- 1:17:14Speaker 2: whip i, DON'T like that a little bit better at
- 1:17:18Speaker 2: home four POINT. Oh eighty, ra so yeah the splits
- 1:17:20Speaker 2: are not in our favorite. In this one but he's
- 1:17:22Speaker 2: a Pitching worse. Than, LOPEZ recently, man i Mean look
- 1:17:25Speaker 2: at lighter over his last. Bunch of starts over his,
- 1:17:28Speaker 2: last six starts he's really only had one Good, one
- 1:17:31Speaker 2: against seattle where you give him one run in six innings.
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: Seven to zero strike.
- 1:17:35Speaker 2: A walk ratio every other start five of, the last
- 1:17:38Speaker 2: six he's allowed two or more walks in.
- 1:17:40Speaker 1: All of them he's gone five.
- 1:17:42Speaker 2: To two thirds innings are fewer in all, of those
- 1:17:44Speaker 2: starts and he's allowed at.
- 1:17:46Speaker 1: Least three runs in all but one. Of those starts
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: so he is not in.
- 1:17:49Speaker 2: Good format now And even though texas won his Last,
- 1:17:52Speaker 2: start against houston he was bad. In that start he
- 1:17:54Speaker 2: give up four walks and five hits and five.
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: And a third that.
- 1:17:58Speaker 2: Was not good eleven to six strike a walk, ratio
- 1:18:01Speaker 2: this month and, Prior to that.
- 1:18:03Speaker 1: Texas had lost six starts.
- 1:18:06Speaker 2: In a Row OF his so i mean some of
- 1:18:08Speaker 2: it's because, they can't hit but still it has not
- 1:18:11Speaker 2: been That, good for lighter and his numbers are even
- 1:18:13Speaker 2: Worse against the as you talk About how bad lopez's
- 1:18:16Speaker 2: numbers are in a, Small sample size lighters are even
- 1:18:18Speaker 2: worse in seventeen at Bats against the A's longeliers and
- 1:18:22Speaker 2: sodas from both of HOME runoff and i Forgot to
- 1:18:25Speaker 2: mention soders from another good hitter. On this team two walks,
- 1:18:28Speaker 2: to three strikeouts so that's also a bad ratio four
- 1:18:31Speaker 2: to twelve average.
- 1:18:32Speaker 1: One thousand and two.
- 1:18:33Speaker 2: Sixty five ohps so We're gonna fade texas.
- 1:18:37Speaker 1: In, this one man and we're gonna go. A full
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: game just based On.
- 1:18:39Speaker 2: The situation texas this line is plummeted down from minus
- 1:18:43Speaker 2: one fifty five to. Minus one twenty so we're going
- 1:18:45Speaker 2: with a market read on. THIS one too i like
- 1:18:47Speaker 2: going with. These.
- 1:18:48Speaker 1: Market reads man let's get.
- 1:18:49Speaker 2: Some wins today eighty four, percent of tickets only fifty
- 1:18:52Speaker 2: five percent of The.
- 1:18:53Speaker 1: Cash on texas texas a.
- 1:18:55Speaker 2: Very public team the public doesn't want to have anything
- 1:18:58Speaker 2: to do With this bad a's team that has. A
- 1:19:00Speaker 2: bad record They're, gonna back texas but at, the Very
- 1:19:03Speaker 2: least if texas isn't scoring, a whole lot you're getting
- 1:19:05Speaker 2: an underdog that could score basically at any, point pretty
- 1:19:09Speaker 2: Much even though texas does.
- 1:19:10Speaker 1: Have good pitching but if.
- 1:19:12Speaker 2: You think it's gonna be a bit of a, lower
- 1:19:13Speaker 2: scoring game which maybe it will because the total dropped
- 1:19:15Speaker 2: a little bit from nine to eight, and a, half
- 1:19:17Speaker 2: at least then you're looking pretty good with an underdog.
- 1:19:20Speaker 2: Play as, well but man that line has moved at
- 1:19:23Speaker 2: a lot of reverse anti, public line movement strong market Read.
- 1:19:26Speaker 2: On the a's you can still get them as the.
- 1:19:28Speaker 2: Underdog price there if you want to play them, first
- 1:19:30Speaker 2: five innings you could do. THAT as well i could
- 1:19:33Speaker 2: probably be looking at maybe playing them as, a favorite
- 1:19:35Speaker 2: though if, you do that and then finally We're gonna
- 1:19:38Speaker 2: play seattle minus went twenty Five. Going against emily here
- 1:19:44Speaker 2: this is A fade, OF milwaukee Though, I, mean milwaukee
- 1:19:47Speaker 2: yeah they're. Playing excellent baseball i'm jumping in front. OF
- 1:19:49Speaker 2: a train I understand that milwaukee's won ten games.
- 1:19:55Speaker 1: In a row is out that is including six of Them.
- 1:19:57Speaker 2: Against, THE dodgers Yeah i know milwaukee is absolutely, crushing
- 1:20:02Speaker 2: right now but a lot of these games have. Been
- 1:20:05Speaker 2: close wins man made four of the six Wins against
- 1:20:09Speaker 2: the dodgers were, one run wins, so they, are you
- 1:20:12Speaker 2: know escaping with some, close games there and one of
- 1:20:14Speaker 2: the other ones was a.
- 1:20:15Speaker 1: Two, Run win yes milwaukee is definitely a lot.
- 1:20:18Speaker 2: Better right now is their bullpen has started pitching, a
- 1:20:20Speaker 2: lot better their, offense is good and their.
- 1:20:22Speaker 1: Starting rotation is.
- 1:20:23Speaker 2: Now completely different because remember when they, started the Season
- 1:20:27Speaker 2: They had freddy peralta as their, ace great pitcher even
- 1:20:30Speaker 2: though he didn't dwell last time out, for me unfortunately
- 1:20:34Speaker 2: and they had.
- 1:20:34Speaker 1: Basically nobody else but Now They.
- 1:20:35Speaker 2: Have jacob mazerowski Who's the young fienom Basically the next
- 1:20:39Speaker 2: schemes that. Everybody's talking about so he's in. The Rotation
- 1:20:42Speaker 2: now quinn priester is starting, to pitch. Ridiculously Very Unexpected
- 1:20:47Speaker 2: they red sox should have kept him, priest pitching great and.
- 1:20:50Speaker 1: Then they have.
- 1:20:52Speaker 2: They just got brandon woodruff back, who's PITCHING today and i.
- 1:20:55Speaker 1: Am gonna fade him.
- 1:20:56Speaker 2: IN this Game i know i'm fading A good pitcher
- 1:20:59Speaker 2: woodruff is rreat, throughout his career and he's missed, AN entire,
- 1:21:03Speaker 2: season i think or even more than a season with
- 1:21:05Speaker 2: injury issues. And He's back so milwaukee's starting rotation.
- 1:21:08Speaker 1: All of a sudden is. Really really good but this
- 1:21:10Speaker 1: is part Of the Reason.
- 1:21:11Speaker 2: I'm. FADING milwaukee man i think this is the time
- 1:21:13Speaker 2: where they're gonna be. At a point this is, the,
- 1:21:16Speaker 2: high point man this is the Cell point. ON milwaukee,
- 1:21:20Speaker 2: here i mean You're looking At seattle after seattle Got bombed.
- 1:21:22Speaker 2: By houston yesterday milwaukee has the best record, in baseball
- 1:21:26Speaker 2: now they're Tied, with the cubs not ONLY Atop, the
- 1:21:29Speaker 2: nl central but best, record in baseball and they Just.
- 1:21:33Speaker 2: SWEPT the, dodgers i mean what more can you Do,
- 1:21:35Speaker 2: if YOU'RE milwaukee, right i.
- 1:21:37Speaker 1: Mean That's crazy, SO milwaukee again i think they've reached their. Peak,
- 1:21:41Speaker 1: right now yes they're, a GOOD team but i think
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: this is the point where you get value.
- 1:21:45Speaker 2: Going AGAINST them and i think the public's gonna be
- 1:21:47Speaker 2: looking at This and thinking milwaukee's winning every.
- 1:21:49Speaker 1: Game right now They're.
- 1:21:50Speaker 2: Crushing the dodgers they have the best. Record in BASEBALL
- 1:21:53Speaker 2: how could I possibly get milwaukee as. An UNDERDOG here
- 1:21:55Speaker 2: so i think the public is going to be Tempted
- 1:21:57Speaker 2: to grab milwaukee, as an underdog Especially after the mariners
- 1:22:00Speaker 2: got bombed for. Eleven runs Yesterday, but the brewers remember
- 1:22:04Speaker 2: they're Traveling up to Seattle. FROM the dodgers i think
- 1:22:06Speaker 2: this is a big time letdown Spot. For, the brewers
- 1:22:09Speaker 2: man You sweep the dodgers for a second time.
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: In like a span of a little bit over like a.
- 1:22:14Speaker 2: Couple, of, WEEKS basically yeah i think this is The
- 1:22:18Speaker 2: point where i'm Gonna go with milwaukee losing.
- 1:22:20Speaker 1: Their, streak here man they're.
- 1:22:22Speaker 2: An underdog here milwaukee is still not that great on
- 1:22:25Speaker 2: the road real even though their offense has been pretty good,
- 1:22:27Speaker 2: On the road they're close to a five hundred team.
- 1:22:29Speaker 2: On the road mariners have a slightly better home. Record
- 1:22:32Speaker 2: than that mariners are a better home team, than road
- 1:22:34Speaker 2: team so we have that. GOING for us i still
- 1:22:37Speaker 2: think we have the Better bullpend, with Seattle here and
- 1:22:39Speaker 2: milwaukee used a lot, of, their bullpen man because you
- 1:22:42Speaker 2: remember they just They swept the dodgers in, three Close
- 1:22:45Speaker 2: games so milwaukee used their best relief pitchers throughout. That
- 1:22:49Speaker 2: ENTIRE series So i think milwaukee's bullpend is a little,
- 1:22:52Speaker 2: bit unrested too and even though their bullpen, has, BEEN good,
- 1:22:55Speaker 2: YEAH i mean i think the rest scenario is gonna. Factor,
- 1:22:58Speaker 2: in here yes they are up to the eighth best
- 1:23:00Speaker 2: bullpen as far as. Whip is concerned seattle's bullpen has
- 1:23:03Speaker 2: definitely fallen down, a little bit but their bullpen is.
- 1:23:06Speaker 1: STILL fairly, good i mean three point.
- 1:23:07Speaker 2: EIGHT eighty, RA i know i don't like the one point,
- 1:23:09Speaker 2: three two whip but It's not like seattle's. An atrocious
- 1:23:12Speaker 2: bullpen they're kind of a, MID tier, bullpen i think
- 1:23:15Speaker 2: with a little bit. Of, upside there yes We're Gonna fade,
- 1:23:18Speaker 2: brandon WOODROFF here but I think the mariners can At
- 1:23:21Speaker 2: least match woodroff. In. THIS game man i think it's
- 1:23:23Speaker 2: a much Better spot for seattle staying at home after
- 1:23:25Speaker 2: Getting blasted. By houston yesterday seattle didn't have to use
- 1:23:29Speaker 2: their best relief pitchers yesterday because the game. Was over
- 1:23:32Speaker 2: already they. Got absolutely hammered woodroff has been. EXCELLENT so
- 1:23:35Speaker 2: far i understand that he's been great. In his career
- 1:23:38Speaker 2: two point six, p'in one era point six' eight whip in.
- 1:23:41Speaker 2: Two starts, so far this year really good eighteen to.
- 1:23:45Speaker 2: ZERO strikeout walk ratio i know he's not a guy
- 1:23:48Speaker 2: that you, really want to Fade but He. Faced miami
- 1:23:51Speaker 2: in washington those are, two really bad teams and he
- 1:23:53Speaker 2: didn't even make It. Five innings against washington so he
- 1:23:56Speaker 2: did a little bit better In, that starting against miami
- 1:23:58Speaker 2: and he's having to step up In class to. Face
- 1:24:00Speaker 2: seattle's offense here seattle's offense is better. Than those two
- 1:24:03Speaker 2: offenses if we look at, The hitting stats here seattle's actually.
- 1:24:07Speaker 2: Sixth in team ops so THEIR offense is Actually. I
- 1:24:10Speaker 2: think where's milwaukee i think They're. Actually better than? Milwaukee
- 1:24:13Speaker 2: is That? Right, Where is milwaukee yeah milwaukee's, Actually down
- 1:24:16Speaker 2: at eighteenth So everybody, talks about, Milwaukee's offense and yes milwaukee.
- 1:24:20Speaker 2: Is Better at home but seattle actually might have a hitting. Edge,
- 1:24:23Speaker 2: IN this game woodrooff i mean he. IS probably, gonna
- 1:24:27Speaker 2: do i mean he might do fairly, well in this
- 1:24:29Speaker 2: game but he doesn't Have. Good numbers against seattle this is. A,
- 1:24:31Speaker 2: Picture friendly park yeah, woodroff has done well but he's
- 1:24:34Speaker 2: having a step way. Up in class here in the
- 1:24:36Speaker 2: thirty one career bats has a really good eleven zero,
- 1:24:39Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio but he's given up Some Hard
- 1:24:41Speaker 2: hits a rosarina garbable that home runs off him three,
- 1:24:45Speaker 2: twenty three average allowed nine. Oh Three ops allowed so
- 1:24:50Speaker 2: woodroff has Not. Done well against seattle so that's part
- 1:24:53Speaker 2: OF the reason why. I like this man i like
- 1:24:55Speaker 2: The situation, to Fade milwaukee here but woodroff has Terrible,
- 1:24:58Speaker 2: numbers against against seattle And He's, up against george kirby
- 1:25:03Speaker 2: who people are gonna look At this and see woodruff HAS,
- 1:25:05Speaker 2: a way, better era but again it's. Only in two
- 1:25:08Speaker 2: starts kirby has been, dealing With some injuries but kirby
- 1:25:11Speaker 2: has been.
- 1:25:11Speaker 1: Good Throughout his career.
- 1:25:13Speaker 2: With seattle so far he's better than HIS four point,
- 1:25:16Speaker 2: five ra would suggest and one POINT one to five.
- 1:25:18Speaker 2: Whip is quite good he's, been better at Home as
- 1:25:21Speaker 2: most of seattle's pitchers are three point SIX to two
- 1:25:23Speaker 2: home era and. Starting to pitch better he has a
- 1:25:27Speaker 2: fifteen to three strike out. Walk ratio this month he was,
- 1:25:29Speaker 2: a dealing last month thirty three to six, strike out
- 1:25:32Speaker 2: walk ratio three POINT one to eight era last. Month,
- 1:25:35Speaker 2: AND this, month yes i know he walked. Three guys
- 1:25:37Speaker 2: last Outing it was at, DETROIT though, You know i
- 1:25:41Speaker 2: mean kirby does have some bad. Starts on the road
- 1:25:44Speaker 2: detroit's a good offense and a, good team at home
- 1:25:47Speaker 2: so that was a. Difficult spot for him seattle's won
- 1:25:50Speaker 2: six of, his, last Seven starts though so seattle's. Backed
- 1:25:53Speaker 2: him pretty well even in games where, He's faced good offenses. He's,
- 1:25:56Speaker 2: pitched pretty well yeah he's facing, a Decent offense here But,
- 1:26:00Speaker 2: derby against the brewers they only have fifteen, at bats
- 1:26:03Speaker 2: against them so he has. A lot of unfamiliarities when
- 1:26:05Speaker 2: you have a Talented young pitcher like kirby going up
- 1:26:07Speaker 2: against hitters that basically haven't, Even seen him before he's
- 1:26:10Speaker 2: got an, edge there as well and the guys that
- 1:26:12Speaker 2: have seen. Him haven't done well they're only two for
- 1:26:15Speaker 2: fifteen off, him with, three strikeouts no walk so, one
- 1:26:18Speaker 2: thirty three average, one extra mase Hit, a double from
- 1:26:21Speaker 2: haas and three thirty. Three Ops against them so I'm
- 1:26:24Speaker 2: gonna go with seattle in this game. For all those
- 1:26:27Speaker 2: reasons moneyline full game where again We're fading a public
- 1:26:33Speaker 2: this is just like the market reading that other game
- 1:26:35Speaker 2: That has talked about milwaukee is a, public road underdog
- 1:26:38Speaker 2: here and again you never want to look towards a.
- 1:26:40Speaker 2: Public road underdog man you get a, home team.
- 1:26:43Speaker 1: That's favored they're.
- 1:26:44Speaker 2: Favored for a reason if the public wants nothing to,
- 1:26:46Speaker 2: do with that team you're looking pretty good as far
- 1:26:48Speaker 2: as the. Market read is concerned so we're going with
- 1:26:50Speaker 2: a nice market read in every. ONE of these games
- 1:26:52Speaker 2: i like all. Of these games today eighty, three percent
- 1:26:55Speaker 2: of tickets only sixty percent Of, the cash, on milwaukee
- 1:26:58Speaker 2: so strong Strong market read.
- 1:27:00Speaker 1: On seattle as well off for minus one fifteen the.
- 1:27:03Speaker 2: Minus won twenty one if you get the money line
- 1:27:05Speaker 2: in the minus, WON twenty whatever range i think It's good.
- 1:27:08Speaker 2: GO with seattle there i will go full game because
- 1:27:12Speaker 2: of The situation and because woodruff, hasn't PITCHING really well
- 1:27:15Speaker 2: so i want to get the full, game in PLAY
- 1:27:17Speaker 2: here Even though i know seattle's a bullpen has been.
- 1:27:19Speaker 2: A little bit iffy but if we, get the full
- 1:27:21Speaker 2: game We get more of seattle's bats going on in,
- 1:27:23Speaker 2: this GAME as well which i think. You kind of
- 1:27:25Speaker 2: want and it's a fad of the Situation as well.
- 1:27:28Speaker 2: That milwaukee is in so we're. Gonna go with that
- 1:27:31Speaker 2: man that's gonna. Do it for today another long breakdown of. All,
- 1:27:35Speaker 2: these games today man let's.
- 1:27:37Speaker 1: Have a.
- 1:27:37Speaker 2: Good evening let's Win We got the, Pittsburgh pirates money
- 1:27:40Speaker 2: line miami on the run line in the first five
- 1:27:43Speaker 2: in is or if you want to go. Money line
- 1:27:45Speaker 2: you can you have to pay a bit of, a.
- 1:27:46Speaker 2: Price for it though if You want to go miami
- 1:27:48Speaker 2: full game you could. Do that as well If you
- 1:27:51Speaker 2: want to a's full.
- 1:27:52Speaker 1: Game money line and seattle. Full game money line. Let's
- 1:27:56Speaker 1: get it done Learn.
- 1:27:57Speaker 2: To toad on twitter i'm now Learned to toad, on
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- 1:28:29Speaker 2: today Man and covered in yuke is my. Ukulele channel
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- 1:29:39Speaker 2: good one peace