Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Splash the Board, Go on Tilt | MLB & WNBA | 8/18/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Splash the Board, Go on Tilt | MLB & WNBA | 8/18/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your checks.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show? Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice not now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: Hold on, Hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed back with you? Toadstool
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: sports Tuesday? Is that what it is? August eighteenth. Don't
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: listen to me. Man Ah forced that play yesterday and Arizona.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I did tell you that the Red Sox might be
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: bringing BeO into that game, And yeah, that is exactly
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: what they did. They brought him into the second inning
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: and he was good again. He has like the lowest
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: relief era in all of baseball, even though if he
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: pitches the he's an absolute disaster. But as long as
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: somebody else pitches the first inning, he's like one of
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: the best pitchers in baseball. It's insane. I did say
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: that was a concern with it. The Red Sox just
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: also teed off, like they got Mitch Bratt out of
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: the game early, and then Arizona brought in Zach Lyttel,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: like I think it was a two nothing game. When
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: they brought in Lttel, I'm like, okay, they're throwing the
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: game now. I mean, at least I'm a Red Sox fan.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: And the Red Sox won and looked good in the game.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: Zach Lyttel and that's a forfeit if you bring him in,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: so didn't really think that that was the direction Arizona
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: was gonna go. Lttel pitched the rest of the game though,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: because they just were like, all right, we're not gonna
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: win this game. I guess let's just save the rest
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: of our bullpen. I don't know what they were doing,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: and of course I was right about a bunch of
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: the other games yesterday. That's just great maculdo, what's up?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: No?
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah? Put an opener in front of him, yes, correct,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: I think they That is kind of what they're doing
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: at this point, I guess. But whose spot was that
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: in the rotation?
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: Though?
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Somebody else is hurt? Right? Well? No, I don't. I
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: guess no, I guess they must have just done it
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: because of the way the rest worked out, because nobody
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: else is hurt. They still have Gray Suarez, Bennett who's
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: not pitching well, and totally obviously, they're all still there.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: And maybe what they should do is get rid of
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Sandoval and that spot should be opener plus Bao. I
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: think that would at least be better than Sandoval. That's
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: what they should do. They need Crochet back. I don't
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: know what the hell is going on with that. Let's
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: do baseball here. I like the board today. I got
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: three plays here. I almost added a fourth, which I'll
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: tell you what that is too. I was thinking I
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: was gonna have way too many because the first two
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: games are both plays for me. So whatever, this is
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: the best bet segment already. First play up. I have
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: to get these all into the system, though, which I
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: do not have yet. Let me add these right now.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to remember what the prices were on these.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Hang on me, I should have done this before I
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: started the show. Sometimes I forget and then my last
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: play was, uh, yeah, I think I remember what it was.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: All right, all right, first play, we're gonna take the Yankees.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, when do you get the When are you
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: gonna get the Yankees at a price like this, It's
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: a Pickham price on the Yankees. Yeah, it looks I
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: guess probably too easy to play them here. But this
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: is a great spot to play the Yankees. I think
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: they have the better pitcher on the mound as well,
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: they have the better bullpens, So let's do it here.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: First of all, it's a rest advantage for the Yankees.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: Baltimore played yesterday. They're coming off a big series against
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay and will sure they should also get up
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: for the the Yankees theoretically, you know, just like they
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: did with Tampa Bay. Baltimore were not really going anywhere
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: most likely, but they'll get up for these big divisional games.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: There are multiple problems with the spot for Baltimore. They're
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: returning home from a three series road trip where they
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: went to Texas and Minnesota Tampa Bay. So that's a
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: negative as well. Returning from a long road trip. You know,
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: I talk about it, it could be a distraction. You have
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: to get back to home life whatever. Even if you
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: are playing the Yankees, you might get distracted. But like
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: I said in addition to that, they played yesterday and
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: they had another tough game against the Rays. They lost
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: by one after winning the first three games against the Rays.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: So there are two huge disadvantages here right off the
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: bat return home spot very bad negative because they were
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: not resting yesterday and the Yankees were, or the Yankees
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: did not play yesterday, so that's an advantage to the
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Yankees as well. Yankees just ended a three game losing streak.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: They're coming off a bad series against the Blue Jays.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: They won the last game, so they I think come
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: into this with a little been a momentum here plus
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: the rest. The Yankees are good on the road as well.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: They're ten games above five hundred on the road, so
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: you can definitely back them on the road. And again,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: I think the Yankees do have some matchup edges here too.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Baltimore also did use relief pitchers because they played yesterday.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: The use four guys out of the bullpen, so they're
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: already at a bullpen disadvantage and that's gonna make it worse.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are the number four bullpen based on Whip,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: although they're actually three because they're tied with Tampa Bay
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: in Whip but they're actually the number two bullpen in
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: my opinion right now, maybe number one with the Red
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Sox injuries they have. Right now, Baltimore is just an
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: okay bullpen. They're thirteenth, so Yankees have the edge there.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: The hitting has been about even Baltimore. Sixteen Yankees seventeen
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: Yankees are capable of having a better offense than Baltimore, though,
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: and Baltimore sold off the trade deadline. Carlos Redon will
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: be making his return for the Yankees, and I like
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: to back veteran pittures when they're coming back from the DL.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been I don't think he's been hurt for
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: that long, so it's not like a long absence either,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: so I don't think he's gonna be that thrown off.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: I think he can get back to it. But like
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: I said, he's a veteran, and I like veterans coming
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: back from the injured list because a lot of times
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: the team will rally around them when they come back.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: They'll be pumped they get one of their starters back.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: He'll be pumped to get back out there. He had
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: a good season before he went down for the most part.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Three point three Ray a. The one point two to
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: five whip, I guess you could argue isn't the greatest,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: but it's fine. He was fine on the road. Three
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: point five six Roady Ray was worse than his homy array,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: but his opponent batting average on the road was below
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: two hundred, so it was actually better. He had actually
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: allowed three or four n runs in every single start
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: than he made before he went down, and the Yankees
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: said won five of his last six starts before he
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: went down. He was walking too many guys though, that
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: was the one issue that he had before the injury.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: His hit rate was very low. His walk rate was
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: too high. Like I said, strikeout rate was also high,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: so that was the the issue with him is the walks,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: and that's influencing his strikeout walk ratio and making that
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: not really that good. His strikeouts per nine pretty good
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: though over ten, so he has strikeout talent here. He
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: does not have great numbers against Baltimore, but you'll see
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: why I think he still has the started pitching edge
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: in a minute. His numbers against Baltimore kind of mediocre,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: slash not very good. In fifty six at bats, two
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: fifty average, eight eighty three ops I understand that is
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: kind of high. They have some home runs off him,
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: eighteen strikeouts, five walks, though, so he actually does have
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: a good command ratio against them. Now Baltimore is going
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: with Shane Boz, and I think he's worse than Carlos Redonez.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: Boz has been mediocre four ERA one point three to
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: six whip is not really that good. He is a
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: little bit better at home in some ways three point
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: six y nine ERA, but his opponent batting average at
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: home is actually way worse at two ninety. So he's
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: been very hittable at home. He had a couple of
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: good starts in here recently, but then I think he
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: started trending in the wrong direction again. His last start
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: was not good against Minnesota. And the thing that really
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: kind of sealed this for me is Baltimore's lost eight
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: of his last nine games, I think is what this is,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: and his last five starts in a row. So Baltimore
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: is losing every time he takes the mound, even when
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: he does pitch well. So I don't think that's a
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: great sign. And overall, I mean, he's got some numbers
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: that are just alright. His hit rate is too high,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: it's above one per inning. His strike gout rate is
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: below one per inning by a bit. That's not great.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: As walk rate is mediocre, there's not a lot to
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: really love here. Media like less than mediocre strike out
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, strike up for nine, one of the lowest
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: numbers there that he's posted in his career. That's not great.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: And then the other clincher here is he's bad against
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. He has a three to fourteen average against them,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: oneenty twenty five ops against fifty one A at bats.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: They're not a twelve nine strike out walk razio. Those
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: are bad numbers, worse than Radon's. So I do think
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: you're getting every advantage for the Yankees here. The money's
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: not even agreeing with me on this. I don't really
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: know why seventy two percent of ticket seventy percent of
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: the cash on the Yankees. The only thing I can
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: think of is, yeah, it does look too easy to
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: take the Yankees. The public will come in and play
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: the Yankees because they are the Yankees. Usually you don't
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: get value on them. But I just told you the handicap, Like,
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: where where is their disadvantage here? Other than the Redon
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: isn't excellent against Baltimore, but boz is worse against the Yankees.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: I think the Yankees have the better starting pitcher, probably
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: the better offense, definitely the better boltpen. They're rested at
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's not and Baltimore's returning home from a long road trip.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: So I don't really see any area of this game
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: where the Yankees don't at least have a slight edge.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: Debatably maybe the hitting. Yeah, so yeah, we'll take the
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Yankees here. On the money line, maybe it seems too easy,
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: but the handicap seems correct for it seems like one
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: of the stronger situational spots you'll see, and it does
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: line up with the starting pitching matchup where I look
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: for both of those things to be the case. Money
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: is also backing the under in that game for whatever
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: that sort. I would not do that. I would play
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: the over in that game probably, Yeah. I just think
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: neither starting pitcher has great matchup numbers there, so the
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: over eight and a half makes a little more sense
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: to me. But Yankees is the play there. I do understand,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: you know, the sentiment for the under and a Yankee
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: game was their offense. Absolutely, it has been struggling recently,
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: but I think this is one of those games where
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: their offense should get something done against a pitcher that
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: they usually do well against. Dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: for hanging out all right? And plus they get to
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: face Baltimore's bullpen that has some usage there. The next
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: game is also a play for me. It is one
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: of these dreaded first five unders, but the pricing wasn't
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: too bad on this. You can find a four and
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: a half at minus one twenty two out there. I
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: found it at the gym book that starts with the B.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: If you wanted to go under four, you could do
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: that as well. I don't love three and a half,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: but four to four and a half I think it's
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: a lot better. And finding a price like this on
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: the extra half run there made sense to me, And
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a pitching duel
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: early in this game, so that's what I'm going with here.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: Detroit won the game yesterday eight to five, so they
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: got back on track yesterday. I was pretty much correct
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: about my analysis of that game. I think I said
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: that I leaned to Detroit and a little bit towards
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: the over in that game. Yesterday, and both of those
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: wand up being correct because everything that I said was
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: basically correct except the actual play that I gave out yesterday.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: I should have just skipped the board completely. Man, I
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: almost did today. That's not happening though, So both of
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: these teams did play yesterday. I'm going to factor out
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: the bullpens, mostly because I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen. Plus,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: they used five guys out of the bullpen, so we
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: got to take them out of the equation. I can't
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: trust their bullpen, and Detroit only is three. I would
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: be okay relying on their bullpen. They have the better bullpen,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: but Pittsburgh's bullpen, I'm gonna cast them out and just
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: focus on the starters here. Detroit number fourteen in bullpen,
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh twenty third. I don't really want to deal with that.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is a good offense at home. I understand we're
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: fading that by playing the under here. Pittsburgh does hit
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: well at home. I think they could be shut down
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit by the pitching on the other side here.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Though they are number four in offense, Detroit's a good
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: offense to their number ten, tied with Atlanta. But I
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: still think that we can get this done here with
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: these starting pitchers. Keeter Montero is pitching for Detroit. He's
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: had a pretty good season. He's been back and forth
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: between the starting rotation and the bullpen, but I presume
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: that he is starting in this game. So I don't
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: think that you need to go action on this. But
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: if you really wanted to, you could pick Ashcraft must
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: start for Pittsburgh and not pick a starter for Detroit.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: But Montero is very likely to start here. And if
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: he does, and he's gonna come in in like the
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: second inning, three point two two era for him point
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: nine to nine whip pretty good stuff here. He's been
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: very good on the road two point seven to seven
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: roadyra one fifty six upon a batting average on the road.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: He's getting it done on the road, man, I mean,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: except last time out he was bad on the road
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: against San Francisco. That is a little bit of a
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: red flag. And then he didn't strike out anybody against Cleveland,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: although he shut them out for six and a third innings. Yeah,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe that's a little bit worrisome that he's
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: not really striking anybody out here. But he's holding opposing
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: offenses down. He just doesn't strike guys out, but he
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: doesn't put guys on base. He's hard to hit, has
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: a low walk right. Of course, the advanced analytics guys
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: are not gonna like him. But his strikeout walk ratios
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: three despite not striking anybody out because he doesn't walk
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: anybody either, strakeouts per nine. I understand that number is low,
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: but he also is good against Pittsburgh. They have a
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: one sixty one average against him in four nineteen ops
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: in thirty one a bat, so it's a decent sample.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Here They've done almost nothing against him outside of Nick
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Gonzalez two for four of the home run, not a
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: lot of damage otherwise here seven strikeouts, no walks. So
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: I will back him here. And you know, I'm also
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: going to back Ashcraft here as I do quite often,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: because I think he's a good pitcher. He might, dude,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: he might be better than Skeens at this point, with
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: Skeens looking like he's injured or something, Ashcraft three point
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: eight to eighty R one point one to one whip.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: He's been basically the same home and away, very slightly
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: worse at home, but doesn't really matter that much. Pittsburgh's
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: been winning a lot of his games. He's allowed three
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs at all of his starts this month,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: and last time out, he threw a complete game against Miami,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: allowed one run, ten strikeouts, one walk, three hits allowed.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: We won in the first five in that game, and
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: it was actually easier to win the full game in
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: that one, but I excluded Pittsburgh's bullpen, and their bullpen
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: didn't even enter the game. But Ashcraft I really like
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: about that is he was completely on point. And now
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: he's got a twenty to three strike out walk race
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: yer this month, and he's allowed very few hits too,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: so he's obviously in total command right now. But he
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: didn't even throw that many pitches. He only threw eighty
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: five pitches in that complete game, so he was not overworked.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: So I like that he is approaching that, you know,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: kind of innings pitch threshold here with these young pitchers,
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: when they go more innings than they have before, which
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: that is happening with him, it might become a problem
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: at some point, but it doesn't look like it's a
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: problem yet, so I'm willing to back him here. He's
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high strike
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: up rate. His only problem is he allows a decent
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: amount of home runs. But other than that, these numbers
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: look good. He's got a nice strike out walk raceio.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: That's approaching five strikeouts per nine almost ten. That's good stuff.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Detroit basically hasn't seen him before. Dingler is the only
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: hitter his face and he's zero for one with a strikeout.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: I think it's basically you get the unfamiliarity with Ashcraft here,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: so I think that's an extra edge to him. The
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: opposing hitter is gonna have to figure him out on
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: the fly, so I think he has the extra advantage there.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Will go under in the first five in this one.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know if the market is agreeing with me
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: on this. It looks like it's not sixty nine percent
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: of tickets eighty three percent of the cash on the over,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: the totals at eight on the full game. That money
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: is on the full game. But yeah, I obviously I
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: like the first five under, so that's what I'm doing.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: Detroit is getting the money, and that sort of for me,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: corroborates the under because if the lesser pitcher, which I
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: believe to be Montero. If he's actually getting the money,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: that does actually tell me that he's being backed by
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: the professional money, so they don't think he's gonna be bad.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: So to me, that kind of backs up the under
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: lean here because I think Ashcraft is the more talented
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: pitcher here, So if the money's coming in the other way,
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: I think that's kind of telling you both pitchers might
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: do well here. Fifty three percent of the tickets are
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh, seventy two percent of the cash on Detroit.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: For whatever that's wort, Detroit is an underdog. Pittsburgh is
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: about minus one forty here. Yeah, I mean I don't
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: have a great feel for the side here. Detroit bounced
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: back nicely with the win yesterday. It could be a
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: bounce back spot for Pittsburgh this time though. I think
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Ashcraft is the better pitcher, so I'm not really totally
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: sold on Detroit here. You know, Pittsburgh first five makes
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: a little bit more sense to me, But obviously the
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: under is my play there in the first five, all right,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: I won't have that many plays. I mean it seems
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: like I told you I was like, oh my god,
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: am I gonna have a play on every game. No,
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not. I only have one more, and I have
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: one that almost made the cut for me. You might
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: guess wrong on You probably won't be able to guess
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: what my last play is, and the one that's the
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: next one off my card is probably the one that
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: you think is my play, if you know how I
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: handicap this. Miami at Philadelphia this game. Philadelphia won the
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: game yesterday six to five. I don't even remember what
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: my assessment was of that game yesterday. So I'm looking
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: at Pittsburgh. Philadelphia used relief pitchers. They're not a very
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: good bullpen. Miami is three. Miami has the better bullpen.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: They're seventh in bullpenal. I don't think they're that good,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: but they're better than Philly. Philly's eighteenth. Offensively, Miami ranks
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: out better as well. They're eighth in Philadelphia's nineteenth. I
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: don't think there's that much of a gap between these
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: two offenses, but Miami has been the better one. Miami
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: is going with a bullpen game though they have Kad
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: Gibson listed as a starter, but I think it's gonna
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: be mostly Tyler Phillips here. Gibson does not have good
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: numbers but I think he's only gonna pitch the first
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: inning and then they're gonna go to Tyler Phillips. I'm
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: almost positive that they are because he last pitched five
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: days ago, so if you look five games back, he
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: was the pitcher from Miami, so I believe he's going
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: to be in this game. He hasn't been that good either, though,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: is E Ray looks alright? Three point six five one
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: point three to six whip is not that good though.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Phillips has been very bad on the road five point
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: nine Roadie Ray. But the other reason I think it's
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: him is because I look Tomorrow and Tomorrow or Sandale contrast,
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: So Phillips this would be his turn of the rotation,
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: and Gibson is definitely an opener. So that's why I
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: am almost positive Phillips is pitching in this game. But again,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: if you want to play this game, I would pick
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: action on the Miami side, you know what I mean,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Pick for Philadelphia. Pick Wheeler, must start with whatever you're
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: doing here, but don't pick a pitcher for Miami. But
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: I believe it will be Phillips for the majority of
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: the workload here. But yes, he's not good on the road.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: He's not really pitching that well recently either, except he's
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: not walking anybody, so that's a decent sign. But again,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: I still think he's that good. He has a very
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: low strikeout walk ratio. He doesn't really strike many guys out.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is also not good, so those numbers
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: are not good. Strikeouts for nine not good. He's not
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: that hittable, which is okay, but he walks too many guys,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike guys out, like I said, and against Philly
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: he's not very good. Two seventy nine average nine oh
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: three ops allowed, fourteen to eight strike out walk ratio.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: That's in sixty one at bats. So I don't like
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: the Miami pitching set up here in Philadelphia. I do
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: like theirs because obviously, Sack Wheeler, even though he's on
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: my shit list right now for blowing that under for
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: us the other day, he's still a good pitcher man
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: even though he's not pitching well recently. He's a veteran pitcher,
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: so I expect him to return to form at some
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: point here, unless you think he's fading towards the end
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: of the season because he's too old. And if that's
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: the case, then Philly's gonna be in trouble in the
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: playoffs because they're going to need him in their playoff rotation,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: assuming they make it. He's got a two point eight
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: to ninety ray one whip that's all good, obviously, He's
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse at home with a three point
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: one to nine Homie I Ray. Again, he wasn't pitching
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: that well recently, though. He had one bad walk outing
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: against Toronto last time out. He wasn't really that bad bad,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: but he couldn't get out of the fifth inning, dude,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: so that was a problem that ruined our first five under.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know what happened to him in that fifth
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: inning against Saint Louis because he was cruising through that
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: game until that point. But he's got really good numbers
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: across the board here, low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate, strikeouts per nine pretty good number there,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: or strikeout walk ratio I mean strikeouts per nine also good.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: All the numbers are good, and his numbers against Miami
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: are also pretty good. In fifty nine at bats to
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: twenty average allowed seven thirty three ops is not as
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: good as you would think. They do have a couple
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: of home runs off him in a decent amount of
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: doubles here, but I would trust him over Miami's pitching
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: staff here though twenty two to six strikeout walk ratio.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: I think Philly's gonna win this game, but the price
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: is not good. It's minus two twenty three all the
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: way down for minus two sixty, so some real money
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: has come into back Miami here. There's no way that
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: I would do that though. Eighty five percent of tickets
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: seventy four percent of the cash on Philly, so the
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: money is coming in against them. The money's also backing
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: the over eight. I think if you want to play
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: this game, I think you could take Philly over their
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: team total. You'll need them to score probably a lot, though,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, you probably need them to score six runs
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: here if you do that, but they're definitely capable of
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: doing that against a pretty bad Miami pitching set up here.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: Plus Philly's offense is at least better at home, although
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: you won't get the ninth inning though if they're already winning,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: they won't hit in the ninth inning to try to
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: pad that number, you know what I mean, But that
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: might be The approach in this game is to take
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: Philly over their team total, and then you get to
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: exclude Wheeler, who at least you know, he's been a
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: little bit questionable recently, so if you want to take
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: him out of the equation, Philly team total over makes
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: some sense here. I mean, I guess the laying the
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: run line with them, I guess is not off the
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: table for Philly here. I wouldn't want to do that,
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: but you know, I mean, it's not something that I
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: do very often. And of course the professionals will tell
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: you to not do either of those things with the
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: home team because they won't bat in the ninth inning potentially.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: But whatever, Garrett, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Well,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Red Sox were woken up for the entire last month
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: or so. Yeah, well it helped that they were face
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: exact Laateel for eight innings yesterday or seven innings or
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: whatever it was. If you get if you get to
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: face that guy for almost the entire game, if you
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: don't score, and then there's something really wrong with you,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: like Arizona basically threw the game. The other thing that
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: happened in that game, Kettel Marte, however you ca tell
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Marte however you want to pronounce his name. He just
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: didn't show up to the ballpark. There's something completely wrong
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: with that guy, dude, Like you have him like crying
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: about your mom jokes. And I know his mom died,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: but it was like three years prior to that, and
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: that Heckler probably didn't even actually know about his mom.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: They like they just made it like a high school
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: and your mom joke. He cried about that, went to
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: the media about that, and then not too long after that,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: he took like almost a week off for mental health,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: like what what are we what are we doing here?
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: And the Red Sox were trying to get him during
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: the offseason, No way, dude, and then yesterday he just
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: randomly doesn't show up, just inexplicably. It was like remember
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: when the center for the Raiders didn't show up for
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl against the Buccaneers that year. It felt
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: like that. It was like, we have no idea where
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: this guy he is. We have a game today. I'm
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: pretty sure he was on the team flight and he
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: just never showed up to the ballpark. Like, why would
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: anybody want that guy? It's so ridiculous. I've never seen
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: a bigger head case, I don't think than that guy.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: And in such an extremely soft way. So that also
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: helped with the Red Sox yesterday not having to face
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: him in the lineup. All right, San Francisco Cleveland. Both
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: of these teams are off yesterday. Cleveland is staying at
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: home after losing three of their last four. So Cleveland
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: not playing great baseball right now, but they're the only
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: team with motivation in this game, really like San Francisco,
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: and they're not going anywhere. Cleveland was still trying to
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs. San Francisco is starting a road trip here. Yeah,
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: I say that starting a road trip a lot of
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: times is a focused spot. But I don't know, man,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: what does San Francisco really have to play for here?
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: Cleveland has more to play for and they have the
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: better starting pitcher on the mound here. But if you
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: want Cleveland, you gotta pay for it, although I don't
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: think there's any way I would want San Francisco here.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Neither bullpen got used yesterday. Of course, as both teams
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: are off, Cleveland is the better bullpen. They're ranked nineteenth,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: They're an okay bullpen. San Francisco is below average at
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: twenty fourth, so Cleveland has the advantage there. I don't
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: like either offense, but San Francisco ranks higher than Cleveland.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: They're eighteenth and Cleveland is twenty ninth. Yeah, both bad offenses, though,
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: so you might be able to find some unders in
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: this series. I wouldn't do it in this game, though.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: With Carson wizen Hunt on the mound for San Francisco,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: he's been awful. I think this is his second season
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: in Major League Baseball, and his numbers have not been good.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Six point one, one point seven to one whip. He's
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: been a total train wreck on the road. He pitches
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: better in San Francisco's pitcher friendly park nine point two six.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray really bad, although Cleveland can't hit and they
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: play a lot of low scoring games at homes, so
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: maybe this isn't the worst matchup for him. But I
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: don't know how you could trust anything that this guy's
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: doing here. He's walked three plus guys in all but
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: two of his outings this year, so four of the six.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: That's not good. His hit rate is above one per inning,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: that's not good. His walk rate is way too high,
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: also not good. He doesn't really strike that many guys out,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: that's not good. Bad strike up, walk, ratio bad, strike
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: up for nine, Well, not bad, but definitely not great. Yeah,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: there's nothing to really like here about what Wizenon is doing.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: The only thing that might save him is he's facing
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: a lineup that really isn't familiar with them, and they're
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: not a good lineup, So maybe he can kind of
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: struggle his way through this. But I don't think i'd
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: want to put my money on it. Joe Adell has
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: faced him before, He's won for two with a home
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: run off him and a single other than that. Cleveland
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: has nobody in their lineup that's faced him before, But
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: I do not trust wizen Hunt. Foster Griffin is pitching
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: for Cleveland. They picked him up at the trade deadline.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: He had a surprisingly good season with Washington from out
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: of nowhere. Maybe overperformed and Washington decided to get rid
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: of him. Good numbers here still three point twenty five VR,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: one point one to one WHIP. He's only been slightly
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: worse as a home pitcher three point four to three
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: homy ra. That was mostly with Washington, but his first
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: start with Cleveland here at home was not good, and
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: it was against the Mets. That's not exactly a great sign.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: The Mets were able to hit him pretty hard, so
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: he had good command numbers in that outing, but Mets
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: hit him hard, so that wasn't good. He had a
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: better start last time against Detroit, so his second start
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: with Cleveland went better. On the road against Detroit not
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: an easy task, and he did well there. So maybe
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: he was nervous in his first start with Cleveland. I
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: don't know. But he is pitching better, it looks like
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: again now, so I wouldn't totally throw Griffin out here,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: but you do have to worry about his innings pitch
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: count because again, he's not a guy that's thrown anywhere
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: near this amount of innings before. Even though he's not young,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: he's thirty one, he's just never stuck in Major League
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: baseball until now, so that's somewhat of a concern. But
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: he does have a low hit rate, doesn't really walk anybody.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: His strike out rate is mediocre, and he does allow
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: too many home runs, so that's the one real knock
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: against him is the home runs. Strikeout walk ratio is
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: pretty good actually, and strike up for nine not bad,
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: so I mean you can't really knock him for ugh
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: for those numbers there. His numbers against San Francisco, he
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: has faced them before. Let me see, I believe his
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: numbers are good. They're not a good lineup. Yeah, they
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: have thirteen at bats against him. They have five hitters
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: who have faced him, five strikeouts, no walks, no extra
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: base hits, one fifty four average, three to eight ohps.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: So Griffin should have the upper hand in the starting
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup here. I would only be able to lean
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: towards Cleveland here. But the problem is the price is ridiculous.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: It's like minus one ninety. I don't think you could
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: do it, man, And the money doesn't agree with up
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: playing it. Eighty six percent of tickets, seventy one percent
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Cleveland. But still, I think you
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: have the motivation, you have the better starting pitcher, you
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen. Cleveland to me, has the edge
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: in pitching throughout this entire game, you know. I mean
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: you could make like a minus like you could look
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: at the minus one and a half run line with them,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: but that's really concerning with an offense that really doesn't
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: do a whole lot of damage like Cleveland. You could
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: take San Francisco to go under their team total, but
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in on the over. I don't
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: know if I like that or if I trust Griffin
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: and Cleveland's bullpen enough to really do that. It's an
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: option though, I guess s Francisco team total under which
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: you need them to probably score I don't even know.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: You might need him to score lower than three, which
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: is definitely an ask, you know. I mean, again, those
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: team total unders a lot of times there. You have
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: almost no room for error there, full game totals at eight,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: and the money is coming in on the over for
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: whatever that's worth, you know. I mean, you can knock
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: the price down by playing a minus one run line
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: of Cleveland. If you want to get the price down
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: that way, you're probably gonna be looking at like minus
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: one thirty maybe on something like that. I would guess.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: So you could do that, I guess, and then if
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: they win, which I do expect them to win, and
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: as long as they win by one, you'll at least
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: not lose money. But I don't know. That's not something
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: I'm really interested in doing, and the market doesn't agree
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: with it, although I don't think the market agrees with
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: the Yankees either, But I think that's a strong play
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: on the Yankees, Saint Louis and Cincinnati. They played a
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: double header yesterday and they don't have good bullpens. They
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: split the double header yesterday. Saint Louis won the first
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: game with I guess Quinn Matthews or whatever, looks like
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: he pitched pretty well in that one, it looks like,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: and then more scoring in the second game. There might
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: be more scoring here in this one because the bullpens
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: are not good and they saw a lot of usage
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: with two games yesterday. A lot of times I do
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: like to look towards an over the game the day
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: after a doubleheader, because the bullpen a lot of times
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: is just totally shot for both teams. Cincinnati use six
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers and their bullpen's not good. Saint Louis used
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: a lot to They use seven and their bullpen is
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: not much better. They're twenty first Cincinnati twenty fifth, so
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: I think you definitely got to avoid or fade the
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: bullpens here. The offenses in this game aren't very good though,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati twenty fourth, tied with Saint Louis actually at twenty fourth.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: I know Saint Louis got some hype with Baiez coming
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: in there, but I still don't think their offense is
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: very good. Kyle Layy is getting the start for Saint Louis.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: He is pitching pretty well recently. He's kind of turned
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: his season around and pitched better recently. I'm not sure
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: that he's that good though three point three eighty ra
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: does look good. Whip is not very good one point
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: three four. He's not as good on the road three
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: point nine to six ROADI ray Saint Louis is a
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: much more pitcher friendly park definitely than Cincinnati. Lay He
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: has been good recently though. He's got a fourteen zero
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio in his two starts this month, so
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: that's pretty good. He's in full command right now, but
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: he is allowed too many hits still, but he's not
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: allowing many runs at all. He's allowed two or fewer
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: earned runs going all the way back into mid June.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: So yeah, like I said, he is pitching better right now,
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: but his hit rate is still too high. He doesn't
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: really walk a lot of guys, and he strikes out
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: an okay amount of guys, so strike out walk ratio
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: is reasonable here not bad. Strike Outs for nine are
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: also okay, so he's he's not a terrible pitcher, but
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: he's not great either. Cincinnati has had the upper hand
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: against him at two sixty two average, eight forty three
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: oh ps is pretty high, sixty one at bats there,
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: sixteen to five strike out walk ratio. The command numbers
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: again look pretty good here, but Cincinnati has been able
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: to hit him, so he does get hit kind of
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: hard sometimes. And again he's not as good on the
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: road Andrew rabb but it's pitching for Cincinnati. Not really
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: great numbers here by any means, four point one to
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: three ra This has been his worst season. One point
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: four to two whip is really ugly. He's putting way
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: too many men on base, and he's not good at
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: home four point nine to seven Homira, So both pitchers
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: are in the worst of their home road splits here.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's won three of his last four games, but he
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: wasn't really that good in any of them. He's had
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: more walks than strikeouts over that man, and also in
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: the month of August that's not good. Some of these outings.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: He's not really going that deep. He's keeping his team
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: in the game mostly by like not allowing that many runs,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: but this is not sustainable. His walk rate is just
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: really really bad. He doesn't allow that many hits. His
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is also kind of low. He doesn't strike
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: guys out. His strikeout walk ratio is actually really bad.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: This year it's below two and last year it was
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: three and a half. So he's really fallen off this year.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: Last year was his best season of his career. This
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: year is worst. It's kind of crazy. What's what's going
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: on here? His strikeout rates gone way down this year,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: walk rate's gone up. I don't know what's up with that.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: He is good against the Cardinals, though, so everything was
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: like looking like, oh, yeah, this is gonna be an
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: over except that he's good against Saint Louis. And maybe
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: I overrate these matchup numbers sometimes, although I think I'm
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: not overrating it by backing the Yankees today. But Abbott
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: seventy nine at bats against Saint Louis one ninety average,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: allowed five point thirty four oh ps. Again, the walks
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: are pretty bad though, seventeen strikeouts, ten walks. That's not good.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: But the rest of these numbers are good. So Abbott
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: seems like he has the upper hand of the starting
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup here at least. But I still think if
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play this game, I still think the over
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: makes the most sense. I mean, I don't think either
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: pitcher is trustworthy, They're both in the bad home road split,
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: and the bullpens are overworked and not good, So the
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: over makes the most sense to me here at eight
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: and a half. But the money is coming in on
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: the under. I do not know why think it's on
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: the over ninety percent of the cash on the under.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: If it was in Saint Louis, I might have a
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: different opinion on this, you know, because both pitchers would
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: be in their better home road split if that was
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: the case, and it would be a more picture friendly park.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: But in Cincinnati, yeah, no, I would lean over. The
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: money's also back into Saint Louis sixty six percent of tickets,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: eighty five percent of the cash On Saint Louis, they're
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: slight favorite. I think part of that is because Saint
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Louis is like technically not eliminated from the playoffs, So
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I think that's part of the reason why money's kind
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: of coming in that way, because they have more motivation
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: in the game, if you want to call it that.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: But Cincinnati, it's a divisional matchup. They could play spoiler here,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: like Cincinnati didn't just roll over. And yes, yesterday's games
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: were competitive, so both teams are trying to win, and
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Lay he has the worst matchup numbers, as I showed you,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: although I think he is probably the better pitcher over Abbit.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: I mean the way that Abbot just walks everybody and
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike out anybody. Lay he is better in both
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: of those stats. He walks away fewer people and he
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: strikes out more. So, Yeah, Leahy is generally the better
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: of the two pitchers. But whatever, Toronto and Tampa Bay,
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: we do have a rest advantage here in this game
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: for Toronto. Tampa Bay won the game yesterday against Baltimore
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: to break a three game losing streak, barely got it.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Nice win for Tampa Bay, though they're staying at home,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: but Toronto is rested. However, Toronto is coming in off
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: a difficult series against the Yankees, or they won the
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: series and they played every one of the three games
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: competitively against the Yankees. Starting a road trip though usually
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: is a focused spot. And you know Toronto they're playing
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: out the stretch, but you know these are the types
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: of games they will get up for games against the
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Yankees and the Rays. They're gonna try to play spoiler
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: and whatever and try to beat the teams that are
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: atop the division here, you know. So I don't think
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Toronto is gonna overlook the Rays or anything like that. Here.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: They do have the rest advantage, like I said, and
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay did use some of their bullpen yesterday. They
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: use a lot actually, these five guys out of the bullpen.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: So Toronto with the rest here probably actually has a
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge tim Bays ranked third and bullpen and whip,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: but I still don't buy it because their eray is
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: above four, it's not that good. Toronto's is below four,
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: even though their whip is worse. In their rank sixteenth. Toronto,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: given that they have the better bullpen the Ray and
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: the bullpen is rested, I think they might actually have
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge here. Timpa Bay is the better offense,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: there's no question about that. Their ranks six even though
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're that good. Toronto's dead last thirtieth.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Tampa does have the better offense. Uh, the
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys will give the starting pitching edge to
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: Toronto here with Jose Soriano. They're gonna like him better
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: than Nick Martinez here because Soriano is the pitcher with
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: more actual talent and better strikeout stuff. So Soriano. Toronto
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: got him at the trade deadline. He's been alright since
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: they got him. He's had an alright season at three
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: point one sixty ray one point two to five whip
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: is a little bit high, though, but we know one
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: thing about him is that he tends to be better
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: on the road. Last year he was way better better
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: on the road. This year he is slightly better on
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: the road two point eight to two roadyra So he
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: is good on the road. After Toronto got him, he
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: had kind of a questionable start against Philly, didn't really
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: make it that deep, walk too many guys. But he
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: had a pretty good start last time out against the
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: Red Sox and Toronto won both those games actually because
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: he did get a little bit of run support there.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: But he's got a low hit rate. He's hard to hit.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: He strikes out a decent amount of guys. His only
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: problem is the walks. Yeah, I mean you could figure
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: that right. Like a lot of times, these guys that
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: throw hard, they don't allow many hits but they walk
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys. His strikeout walk ratio is kind
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: of a concern. It's like around two, which is not
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: good enough because he walks too many guys. Like his
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: strakeout rate is pretty good. Strake outs per nine right
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: around nine. That's good. But he's got to stop walking people. Man.
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: That's the one major issue with him, and Tampa Bay
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: has had the upper hand against him. Tampa Bay hits
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: him well. They have a three to nineteen average against him.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Ops isn't that good though, at seven thirty four, so
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: they haven't really hit him for a lot of power,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: but they've hit him for contact and that's in forty
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: seven at bats, eleven strike outs, four walks. So I
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: don't know if I want to fully trust Soriano here,
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: even though I was considering Toronto here because they do
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: have the rest advantage. Soriano is good on the road.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: The advanced analytics guys don't like Nick Martinez was pitching
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: for Tampa here. He's had a good season though, and
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: he does not put a lot of guys on base.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: He doesn't walk guys. So Soriano walks a lot of guys,
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: but he does strike out way more guys. Martinez is
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: the opposite, Like he doesn't strike guys out, but he
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: also doesn't walk guys. He's got a two point seven
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: four ERA one point zero nine to whip. He's also
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: older than Soriano by quite a bit. Martinez is a
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home three point three to one
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: home the ra. Although the other thing that we know
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: is that Tampa Bay is good at home, So a
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: lot of times I will not want to fade them
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: at home. I think the only time I remember actually
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: fading them at home is that Schlitler game against them
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: where we did win that one and it was close.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe I've faded them at home. Besides that, remember Martinez
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: has been pitching okay over his last couple of starts.
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Nine strikeouts, no walks here, and that was in course
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: Field and in the a's Sacramento Stadium where he actually
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: threw a complete game. He allowed four runs there, but
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: they let him go the full game. So that's actually
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: a decent sign that he did pitch well in two
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: very hitter friendly ballparks there. Martine is continuing to pitch
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: pretty well here.
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: He doesn't strike anybody out. That's the one thing the
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics. Guys hate him for that reason. But he
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: doesn't allow a lot of hits. He basically doesn't walk anybody,
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: so his strike out walk ratio is still pretty good.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: It's actually basically four despite not striking anybody out. That's
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: how few people he walks. But he does have his
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: like lowest strike up for nine of his career this year,
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: so his strikeout rate is very low, which yes, I
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: admit that is a little bit concerning. His numbers against
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: the Blue Jays are not good and sixty eight at
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: bats three h nine average, eighth six ops eight to
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: six strikeout walk ratio, so he actually doesn't have good
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: command numbers here. George Springer has specifically pretty good numbers here,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: eight for nineteen with two home runs, four walks at
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: a strikeout. So if you want player prop stuff there
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: hits plus runs withs RBIs. I think I said that
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: about Otani yesterday, by the way, if I'm not mistaken,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: and he had a really good game, so he would
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: have hit on whatever player props he played with them basically,
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, do what you want here, But I think
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Toronto is still probably a lean for me here. The
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: money is heavily agreeing with Toronto. Seventy one percent of
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: tickets on Tampa Bay, seventy percent of the cash on Toronto,
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: you're getting Toronto as a dog. Here the line dropped
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: from Tampa Bay minus one fifty all the way down
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: to minus one thirty. I would agree with Toronto and
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: lean slightly that way. Soriano at least has the higher ceiling,
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: more talent. The spot sets up better for Toronto. The
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen has a big rest edge that you can see here.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: The over I think is worth consideration here, and the
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: money is also on the over sixty percent of tickets
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: ninety four percent of the cash on the over. Neither
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: pitcher has good matchup numbers. Soriano's got walk problems, Martinez
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: doesn't really fool anybody when he's out there. Total at
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. It's a low total because both
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: pitchers are considered to be good like you know, have
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: good eye irays. The odds makers consider them to both
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: be effective pitchers. But seven and a half is not
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: giving you a lot of leeway here, and Tampa's bullpen's
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: not very well rested. Both starters have some question marks here,
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: so I do think the over is worth a look
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: in that game at the very least. But yeah, I
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: mean Toronto might be the slightly better way to look
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: at that game though. And you know, like again, the
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: first things that I thought were, well, Toronto's got a
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: rest edge, it's a better spot for them, plus Soriano's
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: good on the road. Those are like my first two
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: thoughts about that where I was thinking Toronto might be
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: a play in that one. The next game is my
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: last play here, which people probably did not expect this,
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: but I think we have a lot of good indicators
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: for playing Arizona and the Red Sox over eight here
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: the numbers in no man's Land. I mean, if eight
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: and a half is a better number, you could play
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: that too. But I found the over eight and a
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: pretty cheap number, which I think was at the scoreboard
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: for ESPN book. I think this game is gonna be
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: high scoring. I said that yesterday too, and it wasn't
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: over yesterday. That was correct, but it was all Red Sox,
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: which is not what I thought yesterday. Today, I'm not
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: gonna try to figure out the side. We have no
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: idea if Marte is gonna play in this game or not,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: which is one thing that might dampen the over a
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: little bit, but I just don't care, you know what
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: I mean. We'll see what the numbers look like in
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: a minute, but yeah, I still think this game's going over,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: even if Martees is gonna be a bitch and not
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: play for Arizona. I just don't care that much. The
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: Red Sox do have a good bullpend, they're number one,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: but these five guys yesterday, I think they should have
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: left Bao in longer. I don't know what they're are
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: doing there. They could have left him in for at
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: least another inning, but the Red Sox then had to
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: use three guys behind him. I don't like that. And
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: this Red Sox bullpen is very injured right now. They
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: didn't use Chapman yesterday, obviously, but the Red Sox are
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: without Slaton and Whitlock right now. Whitlock was having a
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: really good season. Yeah, not good times for the Red
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: Sox bullpen right now. So you have a Red Sox
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen that's not well rested here after yesterday. Plus some
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: of their better relievers are gone on the injured list
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: right now, so I think they might be fatable here.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: Arizona only us two guys, but I don't love Arizona's bulpen.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: They use lttel. I thought they only use lattel. They
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: did use Santana very briefly. Not Carlos Santana, Dennis Carlos Santana.
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: That would be weird as a He's not still in
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: the league at this point, and see, I feel like
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: he stayed in the league forever he was a catcher. Anyway,
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: I don't love Arizona's bullpen, even though they ranked sixth
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: over four so they're not exactly the most backable bullpen.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are number one in bullpen, yes, but they're
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: not as good recently, and again with all these injuries
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: and the usage yesterday, I'm not gonna trust their bullpen here. Uh.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: The offenses have been better since the All Star break
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: for both teams. The Red Sox are fourteenth now in offense,
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: Arizona nineteenth time in Philadelphia. Arizona is better at home though,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: and the Red Sox are actually better on the road.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: So these teams offenses are actually in the worst of
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: their splits here. But I don't care because the pitching
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: here looks real ugly. Merrill Kelly is pitching for Arizona.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Bad season for him uh five point one, one point
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: four to eight whip. It's definitely been his worst season
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: of his career. And yes, he is actually better on
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: the road four point two to seven roady ra, but
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: he's not pitching well. He has an eleven eleven strikeout
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: walk ratio this month. Yeah, that's not good. After he
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: had a pretty good month of July, this month has
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: not gone well for him. And yeah, he only give
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: up run against the Dodgers in there, but he got
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: blasted by Cleveland and Colorado not in course field. Not
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: a good sign. Not a good sign. And the Red
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Sox have been able to get to him. In thirty
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: four career at bats, they have a three eighty two
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: average against him one thousand sixty five ops nine to
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: four strike at walk ratio, So the Red Sox have
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: been able to do damage against Merrill Kelly. On the
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: other side, the Red Sox have a Ron Your Suarez pitching.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: He's had a good season three point twenty five yarra
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: one point one to nine whip. He's not he's not
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: as good at home three point eight six homi array.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: But there's something wrong with Suarez. Like the Red Sox
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: have been winning his games. But since he came back
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: from that groin injury or whatever it was, he missed
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: most most of July, he's only made it five innings once,
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: and he's had a couple of bad outings in here,
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: allowing three runs in some short stints here against the
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Dodgers and the White Sox. I understand those are better
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: offenses than Arizona, but something seems off about Suarez right now. Man.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: His strike out rates kind of gone down a little
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: bit in these most recent starts. He's not going deep,
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: and that means the Red Sox bullpen might have to
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: come over, come in and pitch more of this game.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, I understand the Red Sox are kind of
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: trying to ease Suarez back from his injury, but they've
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: limited his pitches every time, so I don't know what
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: the deal is here. And he's also awful against Arizona.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: Arizona has a huge sample size against him, a one
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: hundred and four at bat sample size. They have a
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: four to h four batting average against him. I've never
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: seen anything like that in that big of a sample sizing. Yes,
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: I know, Marte actually absolutely destroys him. He's ten for
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: twenty four off him, but it's not just him that
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: does the damage. Like, even if you take him out,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: they still hit like four hundred off him, so it's
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: not just him doing all this damage here. And they
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: have a one thy thirteen ohbs against him fourteen to
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: six strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, I think it's an over.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: Both starting pitcher pitcher matchup numbers look really bad ad
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: to me. Sixty three percent of tickets, ninety three percent
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over. I don't trust either
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: starter here. The total is pretty reasonable at eight. I
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: know there are some drawbacks here where Kelly does pitch
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: better on the road at least, but he's been awful recently.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: And yeah, the hitting for both teams is in the
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: wrong side of their home road splits. But I just
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: don't care. I mean, the game went over yesterday, so
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: the pitching setup looks very over conducive to me. And
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: the money is backing the worst pitch or Merril Kelly,
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: so that tells you something. You know, ninety three percent
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: of tickets, although I usually say that means an under,
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: but in this case, I don't really think so. Ninety
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets, sixty one percent of the cash
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: on the Red Sox. Red Sox are a heavy favorite
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: at minus won sixty something here. I would not back
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. I'll tell you that I don't trust
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: Suarez in this matchup here, given what he's been doing recently.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: I don't really fully trust him either. But yeah, let's
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: take the game over. I think it should get there.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: There are numerous ways that it can hit with a
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: total that's not really that high. So that's the final
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: play that I have here. San Diego and the Mets.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: This looks like an under type of series here. It
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: was a very low scoring game yesterday. My leen in
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: that game was the Mets first five yesterday, which I
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: believe did win. They held on in one two to
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: one yesterday. I believe they were winning at the end
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: of five as well. Nolan McLain with another good start
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: for the Mets. I believe yesterday the Mets used three
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers. Yesterday San Diego only used one. So these
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: are good bullpens again coming into this one. They're reasonably rested.
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: San Diego is the ninth ranked bullpen, but I think
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: they're a top five bullpen. The Mets are not that
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: far behind it. The Mets are actually ranked fifth, although
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: I think they're a little bit worse than that. But
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: these are two good bullpens year with decent rest. These
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: are two offenses that have not been good this year,
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: San Diego twenty third, Mets twenty sixth, and they're playing
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: better recently offensively, but it's still not good. Robbie Ray
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: is pitching for San Diego. They picked him up from
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: San Francisco at the trade deadline. He's got an all
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: right ray three point two eight, but his whip is
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: not that good one point three to three. And last
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: year he had a good season with the Giants until
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: after the All Star break. He was really bad for
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: the Giants last year. And I think we're seeing a
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: similar thing here where he had a good season this year,
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: and I think he got named to the All Star
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: team again if I'm not mistaken, and he's been kind
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: of bad since then. He's also not good on the road.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: So both San Francisco and San Diego have pitcher friendly parks,
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: but on the road four point zero six road y R. Ray,
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: that's not that good. He's made two starts with San
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Diego so far and he's been kind of bad. Eight
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: walks at six strikeouts over nine innings. That's bad. He's
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: walking almost one guy in an inning since San Diego's
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: picked him up, and he's allowed six runs and nine innings. Yeah,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: that's not good. He's only made it five innings in
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: one of the two starts. More walks than strikeouts A
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: lot to not like here with Ray. Ray does have
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: a pretty low hit rate here. His walk rate is
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: way too high though on his strike up rate is
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: also low, so his strikeout walk ratio is really ugly. Yeah,
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: below two, that's not good. Strike up for nine is
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: okay ish in the sevens basically on the season, but
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: I don't trust Ray. He seems like he's falling apart
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: at the end of the season like he did last year.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: He does have good numbers against the Mets in eighty
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: six at bats one eighty six average, six, fourteen obs,
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: twenty eight to five strike out walk ratio. Those are
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: good numbers, but I don't really fully trust him on
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: the road. By the way, I did forget to go
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: into the overall numbers here for like merril Kelly here
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: against well just merril Kelly in general, he has two
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: I have a hit rady, walks way too many guys.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: He allows a ton of home runs, which is not
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: gonna be a good thing in Fenway Park. Probably, He's
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: kind of a fly ball pitcher and his strake gut
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: rates really low, so that's what you get with Merril.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: Kelly has a really ugly strike out walk ratio this year,
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: the worst that he's ever posted, so too many walks
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: and not enough strike guts. And his strike up for
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: nine has gone way down this year too, so he
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: seems to be losing it at the end of his career.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: And for Ronja Suarez, yeah, his overall numbers are definitely better.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: He's not really that hit able, he doesn't really walk
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: many guys, and he does have a good strike gut rate,
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: but there's something off with him since that groin injury.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: And although his numbers look okay here, strake gout walker
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: issue not bad, strake up for nine not bad, actually
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: pretty good. But again it's about the matchup as well
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: in the current form of those pitchers, and yeah, I
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: think the over makes the most sense there. Anyway, back
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: to the Mets here, Mets are going with Zach Thornton
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: up back to him a few times this year. He's
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: pitching well he's a young pitcher. I think this is
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: his rookie season if it even counts as that two
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: point seven to eighty Arra one point one whip. He's
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: been pretty good at home two point six y three
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Homie Ra. He's continuing to pitch well. You don't have
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: to worry about him wearing down because he hasn't thrown
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: many innings at all yet. He's got a low hit rate,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: pretty low walk rate. His strike cut rate's not good, though,
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: so he allows very few runs, doesn't put a lot
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: of guys on base. He's allowed three or fewer earned
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: runs in every start that he's made, but he doesn't
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: strike guys out, So the advanced analytics guys are not
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: gonna like him because that means his strike out for
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: nine strike cut walk ratio. Those are not good numbers.
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: But he's still pitching effectively, and he's never been seen
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: before by San Diego and they are not a great offense.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: So I think Thornton should be able to pitch well
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: again here. Given that he has the unfamiliarity, san Diego
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: will have to figure him out on the fly. He's
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: better at home. Robbie Ray is worse on the road.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: I like the Mets in this one again, although the
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: money doesn't agree with me. But to me, it looks
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: again too easy to take San Diego because everybody knows
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: San Diego's fighting for a playoff spot whatever. The Mets
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: are just playing out the stretch. The Mets have the
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: worst record, so why would you want to play the Mets.
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: San Diego is a small favorite here around to pick them,
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: they are getting the money fifty five percent of tickets
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: sixty seven percent of the on them, But I would
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: lean towards the Mets. I think Thornton has the upper
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: it probably first five though, because their bullpen probably does
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: not have the advantage. But yeah, Mets first five again,
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: I think is the play. They're probably a favorite in
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: the first five, but I think that's probably the way
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: to look at that game. Money is also back in
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: the under eight and a half. I probably wouldn't disagree.
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: I think there are more indicators towards an under than
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: an over here. Both pitchers might have a good match
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: up here at least, and you're looking at bad offense
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: is a good bullpen, so I think the under does
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: make some sense as well here. But yeah, I think
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: the Mets first five again would be my lean in
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: that one. Although it was close yesterday, as in Kansas City,
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: I was correct about it being an over yesterday nine
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: to five, working nine to five. The Royals got the
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: win yesterday nine to five, which you know it was
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Michael walk Up pitching in that one. He outpitched Barnett
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: in the game. But I expected both pitching staffs to
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: have issues and that was the case. Both bullpen are bad.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: Kansas City use five releave pitchers yesterday the A's used three.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: But these are bad bullpens. Kansas City's ranked dead last
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: and whip. The A's have by far the worst ERA
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: and our second worst WHIP. So these are the two
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: worst bullpens in baseball, but I think the A's are
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: the absolute worst. Probably. The A's are fifteenth in offense,
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: have been okay offensively, Kansas City twenty second not that good.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: The A's are gonna be going with Jack Perkins here. Perkins, Uh,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: he does have some strikeout talent, but his numbers have
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: been bad. Uh seven point two seventy array, one point
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: five to whip not good. He is a little bit
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: better when you take him away from that horrible a stadium,
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: but still not even good on the road six point
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: eight two Roady Ray. It is better, but not good.
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: He's gotten lit up in every start this month. He's
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: had some issues though. His strikeout rate has been good
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: this month, but he's been getting hammered. He's allowed ton
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: a home runs. He's allowed basically two hits per inning
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: this month, which is ridiculous. That's not good. His hit
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: rate is very high on the season. He also walks
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: too many guys. He allows a decent amount of home
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: runs as well. He strikes out a lot of guys though,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: like I said, his strike out rate is high and
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: that's keeping a strike out walk ratio fairly reasonable. And
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: his strike up for nine is high. But he still
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: puts way too many guys on base, both via the
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: hit and the walk. That's a problem. But he does
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: seem to have some talent here, and his whip last
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: year was pretty good, although it was mostly out of
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: the bullpen. His numbers against the Royals are good, but
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: it's not a big sample. Seven at bats, seven hitters
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: have faced him one hit, which is a Caglian one single,
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: two strikeouts, no walks, one forty three average. You can
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: do that math two eighty six ops. I still don't
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: trust Perkins though. He just doesn't pitch well enough. And
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is going with a bullpen game. They haven't
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: actually announced their starter, although it was gonna be Lynch,
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: and he might still be the opener here. He's got
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: good numbers as a relief pitcher, but I wouldn't trust him,
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: and it's gonna be a Kansas City bullpen game, I think,
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: regardless of what they do. So I think, if we're
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game, I guess i'd probably pick Perkins
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: must start, but not pick a Kansas City starter here.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: But even though you know Perkins might do okay here,
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: I still think the over might be the right way
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: to look at this game again. I mean, you got
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: two bad bullpens going at it again here in this
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: one of the two worst bullpens in baseball in fact,
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: and I wouldn't trust either pitching set up here. I mean,
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a full Kansas City bullpend game most likely.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: And then the as you know, Perkins, who knows how
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: long he's even gonna last here. Nine and a half
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: is the total money is back in the under very
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: slightly fifty percent of tickets fifty to fifty on the
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: over under, and then fifty percent of the cash on
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: the under. Not a whole lot to read, they're the
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: percentages are all right around fifty to fifty, But yeah,
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: I think the over would be my lead. Again in
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: that one, I felt I'll be better about Yesterday's than
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: this one. The A's over their team total is an
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: okay way to look at this game as well. I think,
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: even though the money's coming in on Kansas City, taking
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: the A's to just get some runs against Kansas City's
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: Bullpend for the entire game that does make some sense
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: to me as well, and you'll probably only need him
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: to get to four runs maybe five. The money line
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: is about minus one forty something here in favor of
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, which is really crazy, Like when is Kansas
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: City favored by this much against anybody and the money's
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: coming in on them? I don't agree with that. Eighty
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets ninety four percent of the cash
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: on Kansas City. I think I would lean A's first five.
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: I think Perkins at least has some sort of ceiling
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: here that's better than Kansas City with a Bullpend game
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: being a favorite, I mean, come on, man, that that
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: doesn't click with me. So maybe A's first five but
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: over makes way more sense to me than anything else.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: And this next game, as you might have guessed, was
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: the game that I almost put on my card that
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: I just barely left off my card. Seattle and Milwaukee.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: I like the under in this one, just on the surface,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: it jumped out of me as being an under. Like
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: a good pitching matchup here, both teams arrested, neither team
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: played yesterday, so we have good bullpens here as well.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: But I do have some issues with the current form
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: of the pitchers, and that's why I'm not going to
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: actually go through with it. But Seattle they're better than
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: the seventeenth ranking they have in the bullpen, even though
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: they've been struggling a little bit recently, but they're rested
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: right now. They're a capable bullpen. Milwaukee is a good bullpen.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: There ain't eighth, and I think they're probably a top
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: five bullpen. Their offense is a Milwaukee's offense has been
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: all right at twelfth. Seattle has been a bad offense
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: twenty seventh, although they came alive a little bit recently.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I think these offenses are fadable
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: when they're facing good pitchers. Bryce Miller is pitching for Seattle.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: He's had a good season, shortened by injury, but a
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: good's and three point three to ninety RA point nine
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: to nine whip is very good. However, like most Seattle pitchers,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: his numbers get significantly worse on the road, which is
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: another thing that worries me a little bit older. He's
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: not Brian Wu, and Wu has had two really good
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: road starts in a row. Now. Miller four point four
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: to seven road ERA two sixty upon a batting average
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: on the road, so he is beatable on the road.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: He gave up some runs last time out on the
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: road against the Yankees. Those command numbers were good there,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: but he's been a little bit hittable here. He's allowed
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: some runs recently, and Seattle's actually lost his last six starts,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: and he's actually struggled in a few of them, a
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: couple of them being on the road, so he's allowing
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: more runs recently, So that does worry me that his
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: form isn't excellent right now. Those command numbers are still
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: fairly good here over his last couple starts, ten to
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: three over the last two starts, but he's not as
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: good on the road, and he's not pitching that well
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: right now. However, his overall numbers are good. He's got
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate, he doesn't really walk anybody. His
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is pretty high, so he's got a
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: good strike out walk race, pretty good strike up for
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: nine as well, So those numbers are good. He's a
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: talented pitcher, definitely, and he is also good against the Brewers.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: In twenty four at bats, it's kind of a small sample.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: They have a one sixty seven average, five to seventy
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: five ohps, seven to one strike up walk ratio. Miller
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: has been pretty good against Milwaukee and Kyle Harrison is
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: going for Milwaukee. I thought I saw some stat recently
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: where there was some scoring change in one of his
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: outings where a bunch of runs that were initially charged
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: to him wound up getting changed to being unnerned runs
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: because they changed some scoring after the fact to an
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: error instead of a hit. I don't know if that's
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: true or not. Either way, Harrison's had a good season,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: but he might be starting to wear down. And that's
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: the thing with Harrison, man, uh, he's not really up.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: He's only he's not even in one hundred innings yet
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: though that's the thing. He threw more than this once
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty four, so you wouldn't think he'd
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: be wearing down yet. But there's something going on with
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: him where his recent outings have not really been as
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: good or as deep. But he's had had a good
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: season for sure, a three point four to seven e RA,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: one point one to three whip. He's been really good
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: at home one point three to eight home he RA,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: and in fact not very good on the road. So
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: he is way better at home one two upon a
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: batting average at home. But I don't know what's going
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: on with him, man, because he came back from I
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: think he was injured. Yeah, he was well. Actually his
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: last two starts before he got injured, he didn't go
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: deep into either of them, and he didn't pitch very
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: well against Arizona and Saint Louis. Then he came back
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: and he blew away Pittsburgh only for five innings, though
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: they limited his pitches, he was actually really efficient, especially
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: given that he had ten strikeouts in five innings in
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: that when he one hit shutout of them, so he
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: looked like he was right back ready to go. And
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: then he completely imploded last time out in San Diego,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: which that is not something I would have expected at all.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: And that was the start I think everybody was talking about,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: where only three of the eight runs wound up being earned.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: But he was still awful in that game. He didn't
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: make it five innings. He gave up ten runs or
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: ten hits, excuse me, three walks. That was an awful
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: outing from him. And it was against the San Diego
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: lineup that's not very good, and it was in a
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park. There are some concerns with Harrison, like
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: I think he will bounce back here. So I'm not
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: gonna say he is actually wearing down because his innings
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: pitch is not that high. He's still got a low
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: hit rate, he still has a low walk rate, his
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: strake out rate is still high. All these numbers are
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: still good. It still has the best strike up walk ratio,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: he's posted, best strike out per nine that he's posted.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are all good. Going up against Seattle here,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: they basically haven't seen him. Nayler is the only hitter
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: who seeing him. Josh Naylor two for six with a
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: couple of RBIs against him. No strike outs, no walks,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: both hits are singles. Not a lot to gauge from that.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: Harrison will be unfamiliar to most of the Seattle's lineup.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I would play the under here, but you
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: see my concerns with it, or that Miller is not
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: as good on the road, He's not pitching as well recently.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: And Harrison, I don't know what that implosion was that
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: last game. And the money is heavily backing the over
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: in this game, which also kind of worries me. Fifty
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: six percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: the over the total seven and a half, so it
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: is low. Oddsmakers are putting it out there like that
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: for a reason. The odds makers think it will be
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: a pitching duel here. I still agree. If I was
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game again, yeah, it would be the under.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: It almost made the cut for me. I would play
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: the game under the seven and a half. You could
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: definitely get the seven and a half out there because
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: it's seven and a half juice to the over at
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: basically every book, So if you did want to play it,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: that's what I would do. It looks like an under
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: but I have a few concerns with it, a few
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: too many to put it on my card, really, including
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: the market read Really, eighty five percent of the tickets
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: are on Milwaukee, so Milwaukee's getting the public action. Seattle
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: sixty five percent of the cash, so the money's coming
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: into Seattle. I think the reason for that is that
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: they're an underdog, and they have possibly more motivation here,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: so they're a big underdog. It's like minus one fifty
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: on Milwaukee. They dropped for minus one sixty. If you
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: think that Miller can duel with Harrison at the very least,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: it might make sense to look towards Seattle at least
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: maybe in the first five, because Milwaukee does have a
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. But by the way, the other reason for
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: the under that makes sense is when both teams were
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: off yesterday, I think that can rest the bullpen. Well, first, yeah,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: I rest the bullpen, so the bullpen's will be better off.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: But the hitting could cool off a little bit. And
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: I think the hitting might cool off a little bit
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: more because I forgot to show you the scheduling spot here.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is returning on from the West coast, so they
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: just went to San Diego, in LA and they had
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: a big series where they beat the Dodgers three to one.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: So I do agree with the Mariners side here as well,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: because I think it's a bad spot for Milwaukee. They
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: were turning on from a road trip. That could be
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot after they proved themselves against the other team.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and the Dodgers have the two best records in baseball,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: and they may be the two best teams in baseball.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: That was a great series from Milwaukee and now they're
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: returning home from a road trip, crossing time zones. All
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: that could be a negative, could be a distracted spot.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: They're playing, you know, an AL team that has a
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: losing record here Seattle. Again, they need to be winning, man.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: But it could be a letdown for them too, because
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: they did have a big series against Houston over the
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: weekend where Seattle was able to win that series and
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: get back in the race for their division. You know
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: what I mean, They're not out of it yet because
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: they were able to climb one game closer to Houston
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: with that series. There could be a letdown for them.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: But they're in the middle of a road trip and
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: staying in the Central time zone. So I do think
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Seattle situation. It does make a lot of sense. But
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: if you're gonna play Seattle, I would play them in
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: the first five only. And again I still prefer the
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: under in that game over the side there because I
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: think the under does at least take into account that
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: you think Milwaukee's hitting might be thrown off by the
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: return home spot and whatever that does take effect. If
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: you know, if you play the under, you're at least
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: taking that into account, I should say, like you're at
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: least factoring in the fact that Milwaukee's offense might be
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: a little bit cold in a spot like that, So
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: at least there is that. All right, I'll be right back.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: I'll talk about the rest of these games, and then
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: we have I think four WNBA games that I don't
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: love by any means. I don't have any WNBA here.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: You got all my plays already. But I'll be right back. Yep. Inside,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We were on own seven
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm going to
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: don't even know what to tell you above that I
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: seen anything like this. Man, with the slump continuing, two
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: I have not had a good season.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: With wikends that I'm on and the slump continues, I've
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: browins hack Man, I don't know what is going on
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: with the Bruins arch hape?
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is?
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's March ninth? I think who
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: it did not go well for me. Own five, the
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: about this anymore. To the slump series, the slump discontinuous,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: even know what I should do at this point, other
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: than potentially end it all all right for Garrett up. Next,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: we have Atlanta and Minnesota here. Minnesota won the game
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: yesterday four to two. I was another game I was
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: correct about that wasn't on my card. I said in
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: Minnesota first five. They won the first five play and
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: they won the full game. The bullpen somehow didn't blow
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: it from Minnesota. Their bullpen is awful, though Atlanta is
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. Atlanta used three guys out of the
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday, Minnesota used four. Atlanta has ranked second in bullpen.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: I think they're the third best bullpen. Minnesota is twenty eighth,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: not good, possibly the third worst bullpen, maybe the fourth
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: worst whatever if Colorado might be worse or something. I
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: don't know. Hitting wise, Atlanta is also better in that department.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: They're tenth, Minnesota not too far behind. At thirteenth. Atlanta
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: is tied with Detroit. Right now. Atlanta has Tyler Molly
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: pitching here. He's been shockingly good with Atlanta so far.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: I don't really think he's that good. Maybe being on
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: a content team has pumped them up because he had
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: a pretty bad season for the Giants. He's got a
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: four point six to four ERA overall, one point three
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: to two Whip this season, he's been awful on the
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: road as well, seven point oh seven roadra with a
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: three to h seven opponent batting average. So I would
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: not trust him here, even though I didn't trust him
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: in that game against the Yankees, and we got the
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: win with the Yankees, but it had to happen really
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: late after Malley. We got really lucky in that when
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: Molly was really good in that game on the road
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: at the Yankees. I'm less surprised that he was good
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: at home against the Mets. That made more sense because
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: the Mets are not really a good offense and that
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: was a home game for him. I still don't know
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: if he's actually gonna continue to be good on the
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: road though, and maybe he just got really pumped up
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: for that game against the Yankees. But yeah, he's been
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: really good and both of his starts with Atlanta so far.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: It's interesting. But do what you want with that. He's
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: in good form right now, there's no question about that.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: But he's not good on the road, and he's not
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: good against Minnesota. They have sixty four at bats against him,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: a two eighty one average sevens fourteen to six strikeout
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, so I still would not trust him here,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: even though he is in good form, and his good
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: form kind of keeps me away from whatever I would
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: do here. But I would actually be leaning Minnesota first
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: five again here or towards the over those are I think,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: the two ways to look at this game. But mally,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: I don't want to fade him in his current form though,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: ZEBI Matthews is pitching for Minnesota, not great. Five point
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: three four RA one point three to five whip at
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: least indicates maybe his the race should be a little
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: bit lower than it is. He's good at home though,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: three point three to five HOMI race. So the home
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: road splits, Just like I said with Ober yesterday, the
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: home road splits favor Minnesota starter here Matthews. I mean,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: he's been okay recently, good enough that the Twins have won.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: His last three starts, had a lot of strikeouts in
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: one of them against Seattle. He's only going five innings
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: regularly here, I like, exactly five innings in all these starts,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: and he's keeping his team in the game, allowing not
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: that many. But he's getting a decent amount of run
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: support here. His hit rate is still too high, his
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: walk rate is fine. His strike out rates a little
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: bit low, so his strikeout walk ratio is just okay.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: It's actually lower this year than it was last year,
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: which maybe isn't good. His strike up for nine has
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: actually gone down. I was gonna say I thought he
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: was a good strikeout pitcher. He was in the past,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: but this year something going on, or his strike out
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: rates not as good. His numbers against Atlanta or non
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: existent kind of lane. Thomas is one for two of
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: the home run off him in a strikeout, but other
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: than that, nobody has faced him. So Matthews will be
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to the opposing offense here, so that might give
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: him a little bit of an edge as well with
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity. Amley, by the way, over the course of
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: the season, has a hit rate that's okay. He doesn't
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: really walk that many guys, and he strikes out a
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: decent amount of guy so those numbers across the board
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: are actually reasonable. His strike out walk ratio is around three,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: which is like not too bad. Take up for nine,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: I think it is like an okay number. Yeah, so Molly, yeah,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess he is a little bit better
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: than his numbers make him look. But he's still a
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: disaster on the road. Typically, Matthew's better at home. Yeah,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: I mean I think at lean Minnesota first five a
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: in here, I think that might be the way to
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: look at this. I would not disagree with the over
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: in this game either. Let me see, money seems to
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: be backing Atlanta though, even though they're minus one thirty
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: about here, seventy eight percent of tickets ninety four percent
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. Minnesota has more urgency though,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like Atlanta is definitely making
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, Minnesota needs to play with more urgency because
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: they're trying to make the playoffs here. So the urgency
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: plus being an underdog at home, that kind of helps
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: the case from Minnesota a little bit here as well.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: And the money is backing the over a little bit
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of tickets, nine sixty one percent of
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: the cash on it at eight and a half. So yeah,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: the over makes some sense to me there as well.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: All right, Chicago, Chicago on TBS. The Cubs got the
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: win yesterday, seven of five. I think the Cubs bullpen
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: might have given up some runs there late. I'm not
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: sure that Imonaga was necessarily bad in the game yesterday,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: but I thought the Cubs would win, which they did.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: The White Sox might have been a little bit of
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot after their big series against the Tigers
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: where they swept them the Cubs. Both teams still with
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: something to play for here, both teams still playing for
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: like playoff positioning whatever. All though the Cubs are pretty
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: much guaranteed to be in the playoffs at this point,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are not necessarily. Even though they gave
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: themselves some padding in their division yesterday, they gave one
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: back though, because they lost and the Tigers won yesterday.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: The Cubs used four relief pitchers yesterday. They're the somewhat
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: better bullpen of with the White Sox. The White Sox
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: used four as well. Cubs are the eleventh ranked bullpen,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are ranked fifteenth. White Sox actually have
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: the better ERA, so it is pretty close between the
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: two bullpens. Cubs are the third rank offense, the White
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: Sox are ninth, so the Cubs probably have a slight
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: edge in both of those departments in my opinion, but
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: not much. However, the White Sox is going with a
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: bullpen game in this one. Brian Hudson is listed as
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: a starter. But if you're gonna play this game, I
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: would play Goussman must start for the Cubs. Don't pick
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: a starter for the White Sox because it's going to
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: be probably a lot of Eric Fetti in this game.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: Knowing how the rotation works for the White Sox here,
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: Hudson he's not gonna pitch that much, like his numbers
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: are all right, pitching out of the bullpen, but he's
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: basically only gonna give you an inning here. He's gonna
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: be the opener. And I'm almost certain that Eric Fetty
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: is pitching in this game, and he'll just come in
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: after the opener here. He's not even listed in their
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: depth chart here, So I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: about that, but I think it is gonna be Fetti here.
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: But even if it isn't, I mean, it's all you're
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: gonna necessarily get good pitching from the White Sox in
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: this game. Probably not, but Fetti has not been very good.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: Four point five to one ERA, one point four to
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: one WHIP. He's not pitched well recently. His team has
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: lost his last four appearances more walks than strikeouts over
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: that span, not a lot to like here, high hit rate,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: high walk rate, low strikeout rate, a lot of home
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: runs allowed. Strake up for nine not gonna be good, No,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: it is not. And uh or strike out walk ratio
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, but strike up for nine also not good.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: None of those numbers are good. And he's also not
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: good against the Cobs and ninety one at bats three
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: er way to average, nine to nineteen ops twenty one
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: to nine strike out walk ratio. So I think we
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: can expect him to be in this game and get
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: like kind of a starter's workload ish and I don't
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: think that's good for Chicago, but for the White Sox
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: that they put somebody else in, I don't think it's
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: gonna help their case that much. This game is on TV,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: by the way, on TBS, so it's the big you know,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: Intercity Series here or whatever you want to call it.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: Kevin Gussman is pitching for the Cobs. They got him
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: at the trade deadline from Toronto four point five to
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: three RA one point two seven whip. I think he's
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit better than this, but he started. He
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: was good early in the season and then he started
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: getting worse as the season progressed. He's been mostly better
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: at home this year three point six to eight home
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: he array, but his opponent batting average at home has
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: been worse. And he's only made two starts so far
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: with the Cubs. One was good at Kansas City, the
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: other was not so good. He got hit around by
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: the Washington Nationals last time out. However, he does have
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: an eleven to two strikeout walk ratio so far with
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, so his command has been good. He hasn't
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: been walking anybody since joining the Cubs. And we know
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: Washington's a good offense too, and White Sox, yeah, they're
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: pretty good, but Washington's better than that. So maybe Gaussman
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: does bounce back here. But this is gonna be his
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: first start in Wrigley Field. Actually, he pitched in Wriglely
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs back in the middle of JUNI, and
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: he was horrific in that game. He gave up seven
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: runs in two winnings. So yeah, he might not pitch
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: well in Wrigley Maybe not. I don't know, man, it
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: might not be a good I don't know. After that.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know why they would have gone out and
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: gotten him, to be honest, but well, I kind of
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: do because the Cubs have too many injuries in their
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: starting rotation. So that's why Goussman has been good against
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: the White Sox. They have forty one at bats against him,
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: one seventy one average, four to seventy eight ops, twelve
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: to two strike out walk ratio. By the way, he
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: isn't good against the Cubs, or no, he is. What
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: I was thinking. He wasn't good against the Cubs, and
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: that was why he gave it up in that game
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: against Wrigley, or that game against the Cubs in Wrigley.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: But that makes it worse. You know, it looks like
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: he might not pitch well in this stadium. I don't know.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: Matchup wise, it looks like the Cubs should win this game. Again,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: like I would rather have Gaussman, and his matchup numbers
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: look better as well. I would rather have him than
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: Eric Fetty slash a bullpen game for the White Sox.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: I'd rather be on Goussman. But the money doesn't agree
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: with it. They're about minus one sixty something right now,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: down for minus one seventy, so some real money looks
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: like it has come in on the White Sox. Eighty
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: seven percent of tickets eighty percent of the cash on
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, so the money's fading them. The money is
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: backing the over pretty strong, and maybe that's the way
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: to play this. Fifty to fifty on the tickets, ninety
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: one percent of the casual on the over. The totals
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: at nine or eight and a half, so it looks
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: like as far as Wrigley games, I don't know what
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: that means. As far as the wind, probably not extreme
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: wind blowing out, but maybe win light wind blowing out
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: maybe or something along those lines here with the totals
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: at nine, I'm not really entirely sure about that. The
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: over might make the most sense here, right because Gousman
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: has struggled in the stadium, didn't look good last time out.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: I don't think you're gonna get much out of the
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: White Sox bullpen. However, maybe the better way to do
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: this is what is a Cubs team total over, because
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: they're almost definitely gonna score runs off whatever the White
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: Socks are doing here. Goussman seems more unpredictable to me here,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: like he has good matchup numbers, but looks like he's
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: not good in the stadium. So Cubs team total over
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: might make some sense here as well, though you probably
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: need him to get to six in the game, and
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: they did yesterday, although just barely. Just you know, some
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: thoughts on that game. Washington at Texas, this does not
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: look like a good pitching matchup, so needless to say,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: this is not going to be one of my Texas
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: under games here Texas, we know they play a lot
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: of unders at home. Texas is playing some bad baseball
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: right now. They're trying to make the playoffs. They could
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: still win their division, they could still make a wild
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: card spot, but they have lost five of their last
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: six games. They're playing poorly right now, and the returning
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: home from a road trip, so you know, that's not good.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: So team in bad form right now. Plus returning over
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: from the West Coast where they were gone for a
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: week in Anaheim and then in Sacramento to play the A's,
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: that's not good. So I think it's a negative spot
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: for Texas. The return home spot could be a distraction. Washington.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: One thing that they're known for is being good on
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: the road. Although Texas is better at home as well,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: Washington's been better on the road than at home. Washington
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: is coming in in the middle of a road trip
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: here where they just got swept by the Mets, which
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: is really ugly. So Washington's definitely in a better spot
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: here after getting swept by the Mets. They might want
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: to bounce back from that and win. It looks like Abrams,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: I guess, is not happy about being moved to second
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: base from shortstop. But he's pulling a Rafael Devers here.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: It's like, dude, like, if you're a team player, you're
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: gonna do what the team needs you to do, you
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: know what I mean, Like make the move to second base. Bro, Like,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you. And obviously they
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: want to keep his bat in the lineup. I don't know,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: but to me it looks like a bound This is
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: probably overblown though. A nice skull necklace, by the way,
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: nice bling there. I don't know how that doesn't get
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: in the way when you're trying to play baseball. Imagine
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: if you slide and that thing goes right into your
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: neck and it like chokes you and you die. That
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: would be kind of ridiculous. Anyway, Washington, I think it's
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: a bounce back spot for them. I think it's a
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: bad spot for Texas. So the situation to me favors Washington.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: Problem is Washington's bullpen very bad, so I wouldn't want
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: to back them, even though they are rested here. Texas
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: hasn't been good out of the bullpen this year, their twentieth,
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: but they're still better than Washington twenty sixth and one
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: of the worst bullpens in baseball. Washington's better offensively, they're
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: number two, very good on offense, although maybe they won't
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: be so good on offense here in Texas. Texas twenty first. Offensively,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: they have not been good offensively. Jackson Kent is making
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: his second major league start for Washington, and the first
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: one did not go well. But he's a young guy,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: so maybe you could chalk that up to nerves. And
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: he was facing the Cubs, which they're much The Cubs
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: are a much better offense than Texas's, so maybe Kent
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: will have an easier time in the game today. But
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: he was not good against the Cubs. He walked five
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: guys in four innings. However, the one good thing is
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: he struck out a lot of guys six strikeouts, so
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: he does look like he has some strikeout stuff there.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: So maybe Kent isn't quite that bad. But he's got
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: to get his command fit because that was bad. But
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: obviously Texas hasn't seen him before. He's a young talent.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: Maybe he could pitch well against an offense that hasn't
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: seen him before. Cal Kuantro is pitching for Texas. He's
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: had a decent season. He's pitching serviceably. He's been pitching
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: a out of the bullpen a lot this year, but
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: also making starts. However, I think if you want to
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: play this game, I would probably pick Kent must start
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: for Washington, but don't pick a starter for Texas here
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: because they might put an opener in front of Quantrill
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: or something like that. He's been okay, like I said,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: three point four to four ERA, one point two win.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse at home in some ways
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: three point five to seven E RAY, but his batting
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: average against is actually better at home at two twenty six.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: Went five innings last time out, held Anaheim to one run,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: but he walked three guys in the outing, so he
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: put a lot of guys on base that just didn't
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: score against him. Struck out a decent amount of guys.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: Maybe he got kind of lucky there. Although his starts
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: have been decent. Recently, He's made some shorter appearances as well,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: but he's allowed one or fewer earned runs of four
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: straight up peer It says, I don't think he's that
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: good though, though his hit rate is pretty low here.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really walk that many guys, but he strikes
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: out nobody. So of course the advanced analytics guys will
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: tell you he stinks because he doesn't strike anybody out.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio is not I mean, it's better
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: than you would It's not good, but it's better than
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: you would think based on how few strikeouts he gets.
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: Because he also doesn't walk anybody. His strikeouts for nine
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: are okay, but I've never thought the quantra was that good.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: He's kind of like a journeyman, spot starter, long relief
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: type of guy. He's, you know, if you're gonna fade Texas.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: He is a guy that I think is fatable and
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: he's going up. It's a good Washington offense that has
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: had some success against him. Only four of their heroes
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: have faced him, including Abrams by the way, who has
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: a home run against him. They have twenty six at
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: bats three zero eight to average eight nineteen obs three
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: to two strike out walk ratio, so I think I
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: would probably lean Washington first five here. Man, then you're
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: taking advantage of having a situation alledge here being the
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: better road team as well or being the better yeah,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: being a team that's better on the road. For Washington,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: I don't want their bullpen involved. Obviously, the money is
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: strongly indicating on Washington. Seventy six percent of tickets on Texas,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of the cash on Washington. So yeah, the
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: money is indicating towards Washington very strongly. Texas is in
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: the minus one forties here after they open almost minus
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: one sixty, so the money looks like it is coming
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: in on Washington. I'd play them in the first five.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: Like I said, it's a bit of a gamble because
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: you really have no idea what you're gonna get out
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: of Kent here. And I also would not disagree with
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: the over in this game, even though I know it's
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: in Texas. Texas has been playing fewer unders in their
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: stadium recently, though. The totals at eight and the pitching
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: just doesn't seem trustworthan to me. Throughout this game. I
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: don't fully trust either starter here or either bullpen, So
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: I think the over makes some sense as well Washington
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: because of the situation. I might prefer the Washington side
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit there on, but you can include their bullpen.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: Like I said, so Washington first five as an underdog
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: makes sense. Anaheim at Houston. Houston is going to be motivated.
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: They did just lose a big series to the Mariners.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: They're staying at home, but Houston's trying to stay at
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: top their division here, they're trying to make the playoffs. Anaheim,
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: at least I think they'll be motivated too, though, because
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: they just lost to Kansas City, which is embarrassing. They're
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: now going out on the road and Anaheim actually at
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: least hits better on the road than they do at home.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: Starting a road trip usually is a focused spot, and
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: Anaheim might show up because they want to play spoiler
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: against a divisional foe here. So Anaheim I don't think
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: is going to overlook this game. But the motivation probably
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: does lie with Houston a bit. But if you want Houston,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: you got to pay a big price with them. Both
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: these teams rested yesterday, but Houston has the better offense.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: Houston's ranked or Houston has the better. Well, they have
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: the better offense for sure, but they also have the
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, which is what I'm looking at here. Houston's
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: number ten in bullpen. Anaheim is a twenty second offense
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: also goes to Houston. Their rank seventh. Anaheim is pretty
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: bad at twenty eighth, although they're better on the road,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: like I said, but still not good. Pitching in this
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: game looks very ugly though. George Klassan is making another
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: start for Anaheim here. He is actually pitching a little
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: bit better over his last couple of starts. He seems
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: like he's improving a little bit. He's a young guy,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't pitched well yet. Five point but his
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: two point one one whip is real bad, real ugly,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: and he's been not good on the road at all.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: Seven point five. Roadyra good last time out though, at
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: home against Texas. He actually pitched well. He went six innings,
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: allowed two runs, one walk, so he got his command.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it was fixed, but it was
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: way better in that start and it made all the difference.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: You know, his hit rate's a little bit high, but
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: the walk rate is enormous. He's walking more than one
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: guy an inning, But after walking four plus guys in
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: his first three starts, only walking one guy against Texas.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: He's he's ending in the right direction and maybe he's
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: figuring something out. And he only allowed one run against
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: Miami the time before that. He seems to be going
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: a little bit deeper every time he goes out there
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: as well, so that's interesting. That's not bad. Still, the
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: walks definitely are concerned because he's been walking way too
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: many guys. His strike gout rate is decent, but the
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: walks are so bad that his strike out walk ratio
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: is still bad. But strake ups for nine not bad.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: He's going up against a Houston team that has never
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: faced him before, so he might have an extra edge
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: there because they're unfamiliar with them. I wouldn't totally write
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: class in off here, but I don't know if I
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: fully trust him, you know. I mean, his command has
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: still been bad, and I don't know how much to
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: take away from that one outing, but maybe he is
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: trending in the right direction. It's hard to know. Christian
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: Hobvier is pitching for Houston. He's had his career derailed
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: by injuries. Man Like he was good a little bit
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: like earlier in his career. Twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: He was good. Twenty twenty two, mostly as a starter
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: with Houston, he was good. Since then, he really hasn't
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: done much, though he had like a mediocre twenty twenty three,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: and since then he's been basically injured the entire time.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: His overall numbers over his career still look good, but
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: he's still trying to somehow find his way back, and
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: maybe he never will. I have no idea, man, because
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: just since the injuries have cropped up, he's never really
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: been able to pitch well again. Six point six' eighty ray,
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: one point seven whip this year obviously not good. He's
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: slightly better at home, but not by much. Six point
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: five to nine Homie Ray. He's bad either way. He's
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: been a little bit better recently sort of, and then
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: he's not getting completely blown up, but still giving up
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: four runs last time out in San Diego. That's still
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: not a good sign. That's not a good offense in
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly park. He's got a high hit rate,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: high walk rate, strike out rate looks a little bit low.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: None of those numbers are good. Strake out walk ratio
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: is bad. Strake up for nine also not really that good.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: Not a lot tolike with Javier here. Really against Anaheim,
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: I'm uh he has been good against them. Their offenses
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: are very good seventy eight at bats one sixty seven
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: average allowed, five to twenty six ops, twenty eight to
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: eight strike out walk ratio. Still a lot of those
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: numbers are in the past, though, I just don't really
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: see how these pitchers are trustworthy, even though you look
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: at the matchup the matchups here, given that Klassan is unfamiliar,
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: Javier has good numbers, at least against Anaheim, it almost
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: looks like that would be an indicator of an under
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: But I just I don't think selik. I think I
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: would lean towards the over here. I just don't see
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: this being good pitching. And that was my first instinct
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: before I look to the matchup numbers. So of course,
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers are keeping me off of this game,
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: sort of like I don't think I would play the
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: over anyway. If I was playing like, I was not
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game anyway, let's put it that way.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: If I was going to play this game, though, the
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: over makes some sense to me, though, the totals at nine,
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: so it is high fifty to fifty on the tickets,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: ninety three percent of the cash on the over so
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: the money seems to be indicating that way do with
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: that what you want, and the money is strongly indicating
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: on Anaheim as well. Eighty seven percent of tickets on Houston,
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: seventy six percent of the cash on Anaheim. Houston is
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: at minus one sixty something down for minus one seventy,
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: so the money has come in on Anaheim again. It's
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: I think because the feeling is that Houston is too
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: heavily priced, given that everybody knows Houston has something to
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: play for and they're trying to win. It's one of
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: those like not really a must win, but it's one
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: of those situations where everybody knows they're the team and
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: has motivation and the Osbakers have jacked up the price
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: on them. Like, I'm not really sure you could really
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: make the argument that Hobvier should be that much of
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: a favorite there, even though Houston is the better team,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: there's no question about that. But yeah, I mean taking
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is the dog. If you're gonna take Anaheim, I
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: would only take them in the first five because they
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: do not have a bullpen advantage, so you could take
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: them maybe plus the half run in the first five
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: or something. That's a game I really want to avoid.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: To me, it's one of the most confusing games. It's
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: it's highly unpredictable. And then we have Dodgers at Colorado.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers won easily yesterday. Sugano I don't think had
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: it yesterday, But again, can you blame him against the Dodgers.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: Although the advanced analytics guys will be cheering like, yeah,
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: we were right after all, Sugano finally wasn't good. I
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: told you his numbers are bad against the Dodgers. I
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: told you. If I was gonna play that game, I
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: was still leaning towards just laying the run line with
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, and they did win by margin eleven to five.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: Colorado was also going to return home spot from a
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: long road trip, so that made it more of a
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: negative for them as well. Now, when a team returns
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: home and they don't do well, a lot of times
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: they will bounce back in the next game. And we
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: know Colorado has been very competitive against the Dodgers this
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: year for the most part, so it's a positive spot
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: for Colorado here. I don't know if I really want
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: to back Ryan Feltner here, though, though the Dodgers are
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: going with lour and he is one of their more
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: fade worthy pitchers, I would say at the very least,
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: although I know he's been good with them. Dodgers use
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: three relieved pitchers yesterday. They're the bullpen the Rockies used to.
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: But Dodgers are the better bullpen, even though they're not great.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: They're twelfth, Colorado is one of the worst. They're twenty seventh.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are back atop the offensive standings at number one,
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: Colorado number five. This isn't Corsfield, so we might see
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: a lot of offense here, and the pitching is not
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: exactly elite. Like I said, Eric Lauer is pitching for
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. He had a bad season with Toronto this year,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: but he's been good with the Dodgers pretty much since
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: they got him. So he's a little bit hard to
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: figure out, although I still don't think he's that good.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: But he has a four point six to seven ERA
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: one point two to four WHIP, mediocre numbers on the season,
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: not as good on the road, five point oh six.
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: Roady ra so that's not great. Had one bad start.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: Since he's been with the Dodgers, he's been good and
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: he's actually faced Colorado twice and he did pretty well
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: in both of those outings, but they were both in LA.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: So he hasn't pitched in course field since they got him.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: But the Dodgers have won all but one of his
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: starts since they got so they've been winning with Lower
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: on the mound. He had one really bad start against
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, but other than that he's been good with them.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: He bounced back with a nice start last time out,
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: but it was against Kansas City in LA. Kansas City
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: very bad offense on the road, So I'm not gonna
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: say that Lower is like completely backable here. You look
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: at his numbers on the season. His hit rate is okay.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really walk that many guys, but he doesn't
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: strike anybody out, and he allows a lot of home runs,
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: which is not good when you're gonna pitch a course field.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: A lot of home runs allowed, and he's a very
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: fly ball heavy pitcher, so that's not good for pitching
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: a course field. His strikeout walk ratio is not really
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: that good here. This year, it's been a lot better
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: with the Dodgers than it was with Toronto, though StrEG
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: up for nine has actually gotten worse believing or not
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: with the Dodgers than it was with Toronto this year,
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: so that's somewhat concerning as well. That's a little weird.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: His numbers are not great against Colorado. They have a
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: three hundred average against him, but they haven't really hit
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: him for power. Seven forty ohps. That's still pretty average though.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: Eleven strike outs, no walks in fifty at bats. That's good,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: But the rest of these numbers, I don't think I
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: want to trust Lauer here man in this stadium, and
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: his matchup numbers aren't really that good. Ryan Feldner's pitching
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: for Colorado. He's not great. Five point five to ninety
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: r Ray one point four to eight whip. He's a
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home, well is he Ray slightly worse,
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: but actually his opponent batting average is actually better at home.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: So Feldner is actually not one of the guys that
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: is that much worse in course field because he's not
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: that heavy of a fly ball pitcher. Although his home
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: run rate's still not really that good, but he does
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: induce a decent amount of ground balls. However, he's not
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: really good. I mean, his hit rate is too high,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: his walk rate isn't really very good. His strike up
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: rate is also low. None of these numbers are good,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: although he's kind of keeping his team in games recently
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: and not allowing that many runs. Still, he has a
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: low strikeout walk ratio not good, low strike up for nine,
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: not very good against the Dodgers. He actually is pretty
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: good against the Dodgers, believing or not two twenty five
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: average allowed six to sixty four ops in eighty nine
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: at bats, but a terrible strikeout walker ratio fifteen to seventeen.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: So kind of a mystery how he hasn't allowed more
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: to the Dodgers than he has. I mean, I think
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: the over is still kind of worth considering Hero Theo Feldner,
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: you know, given his matchup numbers. Colorado is not out
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: of the question as a play here. Like Colorado in
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: the first five of the last time I said that
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: it was not good, it wasn't a play or anything.
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: Colorado is very very difficult to back. But maybe, I mean,
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are a very public team. Ninety four percent
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: to take us ninety five percent of the cash on
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: them heavily public side. They're about minus one point eighty.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: So if you want to take Colorado, I would say
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: do it in the first five because you want to
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: avoid their bullpend. But Feldner has the better matchup numbers
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: than he's more suited to course field at least, and
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: that he doesn't allow as many fly balls as Lower does,
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: so he might be able to get away with it.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: Colorado plus the half run or something the first five
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: maybe full game totals eleven and a half, and the
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: money is back in the over fifty eight percent of
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: tickets ninety three percent of the couch on the over.
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: I get it. I mean I don't think either bullpen
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: is really that good. Colorado definitely not, and neither started
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: pitchers anything great either, So I think there are more
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: indicators starts an over than an under. But you're over
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: that key number of eleven. Here, it's eleven and a half.
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: Maybe kind of dangerous to try to play it at
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: that number. Not a play for me obviously in that
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: game at all, but that is it for baseball. Finally
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: takes way too long to go through baseball man, and
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: then we have WNBA. I'm not interested in any of
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: these games here, but I'll talk about them LA at
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: Connecticut Connecticut bad team. Connecticut also maybe not in a
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: great spot because they just played the Liberty pretty close.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: Connecticut had a nice bounce back from a terrible performance
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta. I thought they would play better against New York,
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: and they did. They came back and they got that
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: game pretty close late in the game. So I think
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: it could be a flat spot now for Connecticut after
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: that because they played really tough against New York and
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: they do a Vegas next which is gonna be a
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: big game as well, starting a road trip, So possible
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: they overlooked this LA team that just hasn't been anything
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: good this year and traded away Plumb and whatever. So
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: not a great spot for Connecticut. It's kind of a
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: sandwich spot here, and they definitely might be flat off
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: of that game against New York. I don't think i'd
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: really want to play LA here either, although LA, I
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: mean they've lost four games in a row and they
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: might want to salvage the last game of the road
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: trip here after they lost to New York. As well
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: on the road trip they lost to Washington, who was
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: a decent team last time, So Connecticut is definitely gonna
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: be the easiest opponent they've based on this road trip.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: That's not saying much. I mean, that's not saying anything
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: we don't know already. I should say because Connecticut sucks.
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: But I think I could slightly lean LA here trying
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: to salvage the last game of the road trip at
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: the very least. But you're gonna be laying a price
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: with them on the road the money. Actually, it looks
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't I would not do it. It looks way
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: too easy. Although I would not want to play Connecticut.
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: I think the spot's bad for Connecticut. I'm still leaning
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: LA here, but it looks way too easy to play
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: them at minus one and a half. It looks so easy,
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: basically just to pick the winner price. He can't do that.
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: Eighty seven percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: cash in LA. Oddsmakers are kind of signaling to you
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: something with that line, like they're almost begging you to
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: take LA. So I would not do that either. I
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: don't have anything else on that game. It is the
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: lowest total on the board. It minus won sixty nine
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: and a half. Connecticut can't score, but LA's defense is bad,
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: so Connecticut might be able to score a little bit
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: against LA, but yeah, I'm not gonna trust Connecticut in
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: a spot like that, no way. So yeah, that game
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: is a stay away from me completely. I lean LA,
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: but I really don't like the market set up there
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: at all. Indiana at Toronto. This is in ESPN game here,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: and you know every team is gunning for Indiana, not
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: just because they're hyped, but because everybody hates Sophie Cunningham
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: now and it's become this ridiculous political thing. By the way,
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 2: Reddit is now banning people from mentioning Sophie Cunningham's name,
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: or at least the WNBA subreddit is. Reddit is just
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: so bad, dude. It's just like a leftist like hellhole
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: of a social media site. It's so ridiculous. I haven't
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: been on there for years for obvious reasons. It's so bad.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: It's just yeah, I don't know, man. Reddit is just
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: a totally toxic place. Toronto's lost a bunch of games
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: in a row, man, so nobody's gonna want them. They've
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: lost whatever, this is ten games in a row. My
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: problem with Toronto's they're returning on from a road trip though.
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: They just went out to the Pacific Coast. They've been
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: on the road for like almost two weeks. They've been
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: on the road for yeah, actually more than two weeks.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: What am I saying? Yeah, they've been on the road
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: for over two weeks, So, you know, I talk about
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: that when a team is returning on from a road trip,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: I think it's a negative. They have to get back
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: to home life. However, they've spent basically the last week
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: already at home, so that might help them get that
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 2: home stuff out of the way. So it's not all negative.
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: Like sometimes I will say that the return home spot,
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: when you have rest like that, it is still a negative.
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: In this case, maybe it's not because having a big
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: break like this might end your losing streak, you know
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: what I mean, Like when things are not going well
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: for you, having a break is actually good. So it's
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: not all negative. Even though I hate the return home
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: spot till still, I don't really love it. Toronto should
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: get up for this game because it is a home
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: game on ESPN. They don't get that many of those
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: home games on TV, and it's against the team they
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: will get up for in Indiana. Indiana's playing some good
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: basketball right now. So nobody's gonna want to fade Indiana here.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: They're playing hot, they've won four games in a row,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: they've won nine of their last eleven. I think is
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: what that is not a good spot for Indiana. They
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: have way less rest here, like they just since Toronto
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: was last played Indian we had to beat Dallas, which
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: is a big win. Rallied late to pull away with
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: that win. And then they just had a tough game
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: at Atlanta and beat them in overtime. Big game against
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: Atlanta as well. Now they're coming up of that, they're
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: playing Toronto and up next to get Dallas again and
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: then New York. Those are bigger games. So this is
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: it's kind of a sandwich spot here for Indiana. Man,
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: So I think I would lean to Toronto here, even
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: though it is the return home spot. They have more
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: rest and they're not going to overlook Indiana. And then
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: Margot does agree here eighty two percent ticket, sixty seven
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: percent of the couch on Atlanta. They're laying ten and
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: a half here, so you're getting a big number with
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: Toronto here. One problem with it is the total is
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: really high at one ninety and a half. Both teams
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: are really bad defensively, So I mean in over wouldn't
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: shocked me, but Toronto, I would like the over a
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: lot more of both teams are kind of well, not
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: just in bad spots, but if Toronto didn't have all
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: that rest, because the rest might help their defense a
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: little bit and take their offense out of rhythm a
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: little bit, you know. So normally this matchup does kind
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: of look like an overconducive matchup, but I want to
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: do it. And the total is really high at one
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 2: ninety and a half, but that makes me worry a
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: little bit about taking points as well. Plus I don't
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: I still don't love the return home spot, but yes,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: I think it might be the best play on the
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: WNBA board. Though, to be honest, it's to just take
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: the points with Toronto, and the money does agree with it.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: Like I said, so, Toronto plus ten and a half
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: might be the best WNBA lean of the of the night.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: Here New York is at Chicago. Chicago. They've lost a
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: lot of games, but they do play competitively in a
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: lot of their losses, so they're not that bad of
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: a team. They've covered and almost covered for us most
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: of the times that I've played them. Did you just
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: end a three game losing streak with a win against Seattle.
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: Problem is usually that'll give you new momentum. But the
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: problem is the returning home from a road trip, and
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't like that. They've only had two
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: days off. They're having a cross times one zero. Though
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: they are playing a later game time wise here, so
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: that might kind of help them if they're still not adjusted.
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: But going east is always easier anyway, so it doesn't
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: really matter that much. But it is still a return
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: home spot. They were away for more than a week,
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: or basically a week, so I don't like that. You know,
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: the return home spots still generally a negative spot, even
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 2: though I've had some situations where I do lean to
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: that team, like with Toronto here and like with Seattle
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 2: in the first game of Chicago's road trip, and that
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: wound up being correct, so whatever, but this is still
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to do anything with this game. They
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: might get up for it because it is New York.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: You know, it's a return home spot, but it's not
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: a team they're necessarily gonna overlook. In fact, they probably won't.
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: And New York, though they're not in a bad spot.
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're coming off a game where they kind
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: of just had to get in, get out type of
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: game against Connecticut. Didn't really pay attention to Connecticut, so
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 2: that was an easy win. However, they do have a
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: look ahead to Indiana next, and Indiana is the last
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: team that beat them, and two of their last three
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: losses were to Indiana, so Indiana's had their number. I
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 2: think they will possibly be looking ahead to Indiana. That's
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: gonna be a prime game. That's a big game man,
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: kind of a double revenge spot for New York. So
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: that's what makes this New York spot not very good.
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 2: They're public, although it looks like they're getting some of
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: the money eighty seven percent of tickets, ninety five percent
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them, they're minus four and a half.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great read on this. I see
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: reasons why you might want to play either team and
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 2: why you might not want to play either team. So
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: it's a tough game for me to figure out. It's
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: got to be a stay away from me. I might
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 2: slightly lean New York here with Chicago meeting the return
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: home spot in New York coming off kind of an
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: easy win, but that look ahead kind of looms there.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: New York might be looking ahead to that Indiana game,
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: so I don't like it. And then Atlanta and Vegas.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: This is the second of the ESPN doubleheader here. This
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: is the most competitive matchup of the night, well, one
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: that involves actual decent teams. LA and Connecticut you could
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: argue is competitive, but it's two ugly teams. As far
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: as Vegas, they're staying at home, but they're kind of
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: a negative spot because they just had a huge game
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota and it was a close game. But they
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: fell short again against Minnesota, who is the best team
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 2: in the league, so that's gonna be difficult for them
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: to get off the mat after that. You know, that
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: was a big game for them. Although this is a
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: home game on ESPN, it's a big game for them
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta. But I don't know how Vegas will respond
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 2: to another close loss to Minnesota there. You know, it
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: was a tough game for them. Vegas is not necessarily
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: the greatest home team with though eleven and six is
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 2: not bad, but for a team that's really good like that,
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 2: they probably should be a little bit better at home.
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is at least positive on the road. They're road
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: record is at least above five hundred. However, I just
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: told you Atlanta is not in a good spot either,
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: because they're coming up a really difficult game against Indiana
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: where they lost the game in overtime. That was a
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: tough loss for them. They had to play an extra
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: period two days ago, no pun intended, but maybe And
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: now they're coming up that really difficult game and started
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: a road trip. And you know, I talk about this,
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: having to go from east to west for Rommy's to West,
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: the Space Man the Killers song. There, it's not good
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: going east to west, like you have to adjust your
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: biological clock to a later time, and that means they're
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: gonna be playing until like eleven PM your time, you know,
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: and it could be a negative spot biologically. So I
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: don't love that. So Atlanta is in kind of a
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: double negative spot here, coming off a tough game, not
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: much time off and having to adjust to the time zone.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: Here Vegas is coming off a tough game too, so
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: I don't like that either. But the spot might be
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit better from them just because they are
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: at least staying at home. The money seems to be
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: back in Vegas. Here they're laye three and a half,
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: fifty eight percent of tickets, seventy two percent of the
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: cash on them. I don't have a great read on it.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: The money's also back in the under, and I think
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is more correlated to the under here because Atlanta
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: is the more defensive team here. Vegas has not really
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: actually been that good defensively this year. They've just kind
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 2: of become more of an offensive team, still somewhat balanced,
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 2: but Atlanta is the better defensive team. And you know me,
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: I a lot of times do like the better deepfense
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: getting points, And I think Atlanta is correlated to the
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: under here. But again i'd slightly lean Vegas just because
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: I think Atlanta is in a more negative spot than
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: Vegas is, but it's slight. I don't like either really,
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 2: and I could see leaning towards an over here because
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 2: both teams don't have that much rest, they're both coming
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: off a big game. The total is kind of reasonable
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: in the one seventies high one seventies. I know Atlanta
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: has a good deepfense, but the money is coming in
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: on the under a little bit as well. But I
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: don't do much with these WNBA totals at all. Obviously,
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: you know, but over might make some sense here. But yeah,
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: I think the best WNBA play here is to take
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: Toronto plus the points. But I have some reservations about it,
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 2: although the only reservation really is that it's a return
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: home spot. But they've had so much time to get
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: stuff done at home, and I don't think they're gonna
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: be distracted for a game like that, and the extra
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: rest if I break, they're losing momentum. So that game,
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: if you're playing it, you're playing against two streaks. But
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: of course Toronto can obviously cover and not win, you
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. They're double digit underdogs, so it
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: might be a game where New York just tries to
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 2: get in, get out, and they win, but they don't cover.
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: So that's what I got. My plays today are all
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: in the in Major League Baseball here, I don't hate
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 2: the baseball board. Today. We got the Yankees on the
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: money line. Looks too easy, but I think it is
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 2: the right spot to do it, and a matchup that
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 2: helps under first five of abound a four and a
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 2: half out there on what I think will be a
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 2: good pitching matchup Detroit and Pittsburgh and then Arizona and
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: Boston over the eight Those are my three baseball players.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: We got to get back on track, man. Baseball was
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: really good early in the season. I told you I'm
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 2: really bad at baseball in July and August, and I
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: have no idea why. That's just the way it always is.
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 2: We got to keep grinding. This is still like a
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: fifty eight percent run over the last whatever. That is
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: four or five months, So I still know what I'm doing, man.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: And once football starts, I think things are going to
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: heat up again, because I was. Football went really well
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: for me last year, especially NFL, but college was pretty
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: good as well. Let's get back to it. I know
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: I keep talking about how I'm gonna do football previews.
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: Subscribe here, Subscribe to do it's still sports here on YouTube,
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: Like subscribe, you know, do everything, comment, hype, all that stuff.
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: Get this channel going. Listen on audio as well. But
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 2: if you subscribe here, you'll know when I'm going live,
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: right because I will. I'm going to do the college
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 2: football preview next probably I was gonna do it yesterday,
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: but I got caught up with other things and I
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: was kind of feeling like shit. So we'll see when
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 2: I want to do it. I'll do it before the
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 2: season starts, at least. I know that's coming up soon,
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 2: so got to do that. And I'll do a final
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 2: NFL preview at some point as well. So subscribe and
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 2: you'll get notified because it's gonna be a little bit
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: random as far as the timing of when I do that.
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: What else we got, Yeah, we're on Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 2: check that out, learn it to on Instagram, Twitter, you
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 2: can find me there and my link tree is gonna
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 2: be in the description, so you get all my links
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: there and on Twitter as well. Uh, covered in you
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 2: because my yuke channel on YouTube, Pagreon, dot com, slash
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: and learn it tot you want to support me that way?
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: Uh loser castle me back tonight and so you can
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: check that out. And the New York Giants g Spot podcast.
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 2: Don't know what's going on with that, but gotta talk
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 2: to Ben again. He might be a bit busy, so
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 2: we'll see. But that's gonna do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: Let's get back on the winning side here, man peace.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 3: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone, that's
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 3: somebody and so let somebody know you.
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: Do not have to.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: Lose this round.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 3: Hold On, hold on, not tonight, now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 3: Let me pull you out that bad luck by time,
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 3: but it don't get the crown.
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: Hold On, hold.
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: On, stay with me, now, hold on, hold on, you're still.
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: Here now
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 2: Nin