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Gun Bumps, EU Elections, VP Candidates and More · Project 2028

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This episode we're doing a recap of the last few weeks in politics. We have an exciting
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lineup for today, including some major cases involving guns and domestic violence, along
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with gun bumps, the Supreme Court's ruling on Muffa-Pristen, IBF, the Ten Commandments
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being featured in Louisiana Public Schools, a new Biden ad, along with Europe elections
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and the current conflict in the Middle East.
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There was an important ruling today by the Supreme Court on Friday the 21st. So they
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ruled that the government can take guns away from people that have restraining orders against
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them for domestic violence. This was an 8-1 verdict. Conservative Justice Clarence Thomas
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was the only dissenter. This case started in 2019 with a man named Zaki Rahimi, who
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is a drug dealer in Texas. He assaulted his girlfriend and threatened to shoot her if
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she told anyone. She proceeded to get a restraining order against him, and this suspended his
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handgun license. He then defied this order and threatened a different woman with the
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gun, which led to two charges of assault with a deadly weapon. And then in the next two
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months, he opened fire in public five times. So then this brought the case further up,
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and then it reached the Supreme Court where they had this verdict.
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Yeah, so what I'm seeing here mostly is right now the Supreme Court, if you look at the
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polling, is at one of its all-time lows, and especially with a lot of the conservative
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decisions that have been made recently with the court as it is today, a lot of Americans,
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or at least a good general chunk of the population, the Supreme Court is just not functioning
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as the way they would want to. And I think this is obviously much more of a democratic,
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liberal-leaning cause than a lot of the other stuff is. So just like the myth of pristone
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ruling, this is quite a good thing for democratic and liberals, trying to restore faith in the
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court, a court that's been plagued by some decisions that certainly liberals and democrats
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have not liked when they've gotten them from the docket. So I think this is good, just
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restoring kind of a general sense of faith and fairness and equality within the court
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system in the United States, and showing that the court isn't always going to lean Republican
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or lean conservative on every single decision, but will actually at least try to weigh the
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facts before making an opinion. Elle, do you have any comments? No? All right, that's good.
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All right, another Supreme Court case that's happened this month that is pretty big in
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the realm of American cases that have seen this court is going to regard gun bumps. These
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are basically a part that you can attach to your gun. It's going to use the recoil from
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the last bullet to propel another bullet out of the chamber. They allow semi-automatic
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gun, so for each bullet you have to pull the trigger to shoot at speeds of an automatic
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gun where you can just hold the trigger down. It wasn't expected by the court for this decision
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along these lines. They were expecting something a bit more conservative than this actually,
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but it did split among partisan lines, Elle. The case took the court Friday the 14th. The
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ban was enacted under the Trump administration. The vote was a 6-3 with justices-
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Kite, Mayer, Kagan, and Jackson dissenting. And then Ryan and Elle too, I have a question
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for you guys. This is more of an opinion question, but I think it's a little relevant here. Why
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would people need these guns? Why would people need guns where they go so fast that you don't
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have to pull the trigger? Does anyone have thoughts?
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Well, I have many thoughts. Because bump stocks aren't technically a gun, they're not regulated
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the same way. In fact, the case was mainly about ATF, alcohol, tobacco, and firearms
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statutory authority over-banning a thing like this. And because automatic guns are banned
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in the United States already, this piece that you can add to your gun has different restrictions
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on it. So the ATF in 2017, you said, when during the Trump administration, the Trump
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administration doesn't have direct authority over everything the ATF does, the ATF did
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ban this after a massacre in Las Vegas. It was a very sad event, but the court has ruled
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that the ATF actually did not have the authority to overrule something like this part from
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being sold on the public markets. So I don't see a problem necessarily with them. It's
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not a gun, so I don't see... The court case is correct in the way that they decided it,
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because the ATF wouldn't have statutory authority.
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Okay. That's good. And then I also just had noted that one of the things that the Supreme
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Court had a hard time agreeing on was whether or not this made guns automatic. So that was
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just something that I noted.
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So these do... By definition, they don't make them automatic guns, but they do enable them
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to shoot at automatic rates. The moment you attach a bump stock, it doesn't just become
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an automatic gun. It's still the same gun it was before, just with an additional part
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that allows a rapid fire technique. So they wouldn't necessarily transform into an automatic
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weapon, because those are obviously illegal. And the ATF would have a different job bringing
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that, because that would actually fall under ATF authority, whereas bump stocks have a
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bit of a different effect. So, Eleni, anything? No? So that's it on bump stocks, really. Yeah.
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Okay. Now, another major ruling recently was the ruling on Muffapristin. Muffapristin is
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a drug that blocks a hormone called progesterone, and it is... Let's see, for a pregnancy to
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continue, Muffapristin, when used with another medicine called misoprostol, is used to end
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a pregnancy through 10 weeks gestation.
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Oh. This case was unanimously voted that the plaintiffs who were anti-abortion doctors
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and activists... No, it was the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, EL, which is a good legal
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term for and others. So they accused it of violating the Comstock Act, a longstanding
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mail order that does not allow illegal transactions or actions to be taken over the US government
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postal service. So they alleged that the illegal nature of the drug in itself was violating
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the Comstock Act, which obviously forbids anything with questionable legality over transferring
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through the US mail system, US postal service, et cetera. And more than 60% of these abortions
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are Muffapristone. So the protections this week were widely kept and have huge ramifications
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regarding the abortion in the pro-choice movement that has been encapsulated.
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However, this is not being considered as a win for pro-choice persons, groups, or organizations.
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Many activists say that this ruling just maintains the status quo. And they also are saying that
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attacks on abortion pills won't stop here. The anti-abortion movement sees how critical
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abortion pills are to the post-ro world. Medication abortion is currently legal in 36 states and
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DC. It needs to be prescribed by a physician in the following states. Alaska, Arizona,
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Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
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South Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin. It is banned in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana,
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Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee,
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Texas, West Virginia.
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All right. Quite a list there. But to add to something like this, so the reason why
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this case was dismissed was because the Alliance for Hypocratic Medicine and others did not
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actually have standing to address this case. Even though they were claiming it violated
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the Comstock Act, they had no legal authority, or not legal authority, but standing to take
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this case to the Supreme Court. So it is very likely in the future from reporting that there
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will be an applicable plaintiff that will come before this court to actually get a full
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decision from the judges.
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The doctors that were the plaintiffs in this case had never prescribed mycoprosine and
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hadn't treated women who had used the medicine, which is another reason why they didn't have
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the legal standing.
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Yeah, so it was quite not the best structured case for them. But in the end, there will
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be another plaintiff to come before the court, I would assume in a few years' time. And the
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court will make a decision probably then, an actual decision, not just based on standing.
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On Wednesday the 19th, a law was signed by Republican Governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry.
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This law states that Louisiana public schools are required to display the Ten Commandments
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in every classroom. The commandments must be on a poster-sized display with large, easily
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readable font. These will be in classrooms from kindergarten all through state-funded
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universities. This will take effect in 2025.
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Yeah, so some of the interesting things I see about this is there's almost 100% going
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to be a court challenge. Whether it gets, and how fast it gets to a higher, in higher
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courts is going to be a matter of essentially decision. It's going to go through, obviously,
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the court system there, and it could very likely end itself up in the Supreme Court.
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By the end of, certainly in a few years, this is a monumental thing. This has a lot to do
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with, for example, the monkey case from a long time ago regarding religion in public
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school. I think that will be a very comparable example to this one, and I think most certainly
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I don't think this will ever take effect, because I think the legal challenges and the
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legal problems that it may face are just going to be too hard for it to swallow.
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Yes, this is actually the first state to take such an action, and Governor Landry says,
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if you want to respect the rule of law, you've got to start from the original law given,
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which was Moses. So that's just...
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Alright, that sounds good for this part. I think that is a great way to end off our Supreme
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Court segment and general court segment with a lot of legal rulings and laws that have
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been signed in in the past month and even coming hours and days, as a lot of stuff has
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happened very recently and will continue to. So that was great.
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Alright, so just a few weeks ago, the European elections were held, and there were a lot
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of big things that have happened. The biggest thing, the thing that gained the most notoriety
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over the past few weeks is the surge in the far-right parties. There were far-right parties
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in France that did really well. There were far-right parties in Germany, like the AfD,
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alternative for Deutschland. Deutschland means Germany in German, that are super far-right,
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very conservative. AfD is very comparable to some Nazi policy from 90 years ago, and
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the Green Party specifically also did not do well at all. They performed quite poorly
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in the elections, and there was much disappointment among many Green Party members. So, Lucian,
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do you want to say or what?
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So now we have the French bit and how this kind of relates. Immediately after these results,
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French President Emmanuel Macron called elections. This was unprecedented, extremely surprising,
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and none of this is leaked. Usually if somebody is preparing to call an election, there will
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be at least some sort of indicator leaking before. But it was quite shocking. He has
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no risk of being voted out. He will not be voted out of office because the French elections
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take every five years, whereas what he's calling is he's calling a parliamentary election
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to try to gain a bigger coalition so he can pass stuff through the Congress of sorts quicker
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than he would have before. He is fighting mainly with the far-right Marine Le Pen and
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her far-right coalition that would like to install a new prime minister, among a few
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other things. He's hoping to get a more receptive parliament, stronger coalition and stuff.
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So, yeah, Lucian.
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So, one of the things that's been kind of important here is lots of tensions when the
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Middle East have actually been affecting these French elections. So, there was recently a
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really horrible incident where there was the assault of a 12-year-old Jewish girl. She
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was assaulted by three boys her age, one of whom knew her, and they shouted anti-Semitic
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insults at her. And this has really upset some people because they're trying to figure
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out how does this affect elections. And some people are like, well, does this mean that
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we should vote for the people that side with Israel or not?
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So this year, a good chunk of the world population will actually be voting. This includes Great
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Britain. Rishi Sunak has called an election for the 4th of July, kind of a weird date,
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certainly, to choose, but one at that. The conservatives are preparing to be slaughtered.
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Most polls in Britain, most of them are, most of the at least credible ones are conducted
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by the Economist newspaper, and there are others. But yeah, they're going to be slaughtered.
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The Labor Party is coming after them, and the debates have already taken place. They've
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taken place over, I think it was almost a week ago today that the debates happened.
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And then there was just recently the D-Day celebrations. Rishi Sunak was there, along
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with the Labor Party leading minister, and Rishi Sunak actually left the D-Day celebrations
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right before the main event. This is unequivocally political suicide, and it was. He went home
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to do an interview for Sky TV, and everybody now is hating him even more because you just
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can't skip out on D-Day, especially if you're an English leader. It's fundamentally in the
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history of your country. It is quite unacceptable. Do you have any thoughts on this?
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No, I agree with everything you've said. I think that he really screwed himself over
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with that one.
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Yeah, the polling, they're indicating nearly 20 points behind. And just for reference,
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if you look at US election polling, it seems that Biden is up by 0.5% nationally according
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to FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation website, though Trump is more likely to win
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the election. So that's on the general vote. So that was just to compare. 0.1% compared
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to 20 points is quite a lot, and it is concerning for the conservatives in Britain. That's all
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I have for Britain.
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So yeah. All right. So the ever evolving events in Israel have played out even more over the
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past week and a half. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday that he
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had disbanded his war cabinet, managing the armed conflict in Gaza, and has actually no
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plans to replace this coalition that he brought together. Benny Gantz just days before quit
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in protest of Netanyahu's handling of the war in Gaza, and his international pressure
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has grown for the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. In recent weeks, the Palestinian death toll
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has continued to rise, and the humanitarian crisis has grown even more dire in the enclave.
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The war cabinet was set up just days after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th.
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Hardliners such as Ben Gavir, you've probably heard of him, he is the security minister
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for Israel, have really wanted to get on this war cabinet with many, this has many functions,
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along with the debates and negotiations with Hamas about a ceasefire and peace treaty,
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which are some of the most influential debates actually happening in this world today. So
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if those are, if those far right hardliners were accepted, Netanyahu would have a very
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tough time with his coalition, especially in parliament. So that is the thought, but
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just by kind of dissolving the council. Do we have any thoughts on this, Luchana?
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I don't know. I think I agree with everything you said. Yeah. How do you think that this
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dissolving of the cabinet or group is going to affect things?
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So it'll certainly place, they obviously have a national security council there in Israel,
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but it'll obviously place a lot of the brunt of the negotiations upon just Netanyahu and
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his advisors and his, it's not called a cabinet, but a small cabinet of people that do the
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negotiating for him and on his behalf. Obviously he's not, he's not the one in Qatar, which
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is where most of the negotiations are going on, actually hashing out the details. The
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US is usually mediating, so is Saudi Arabia trying to mediate. And I think this war cabinet
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was, it was getting more, more dysfunctional by the day, by the hour almost. And it was
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just, it was ready for, I think Benjamin Netanyahu to just dismiss it all out and just kind of
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end this thing that had not been as effective as they hoped right after the October 7th
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attacks. L you got anything on this or what do you want to talk about?
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And on a more domestic front, Biden has started a new ad campaign that will cost him nearly
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$50 million for total distribution. He's already spent only $50 million this year, according
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to most FEC filings from the federal election commission. So this is a sizable jump in his
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spending. This 50 million will be used for distribution mostly and a bit of it for the
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production. We will play the Character Matters ad right now.
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In the courtroom, we see Donald Trump for who he is. He's been convicted of 34 felonies,
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found liable for sexual assault, and he committed financial fraud. Meanwhile, Joe Biden's been
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working, lowering healthcare costs and making big corporations pay their fair share. This
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election is between a convicted criminal who's only out for himself and a president who's
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fighting for your family. I'm Joe Biden and I approve this message.
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So what you're really seeing with this ad, or at least what I'm seeing with this ad,
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is a lot of comparison. I think they're comparing what's strong for them, which is Donald Trump
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is a felon and Biden is trying to get your pocketbook to look more manageable. I think
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that's a good thing for them to play on because I think there's a lot of stuff that they are
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not winning on right now. For example, the border. The Republicans are going to destroy
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them if Biden wants to talk about something like that. Whereas if Biden's talking about
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the difference where Trump's lacking and where he's strong, that's a really good ad campaign.
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I think it will do really well just drawing that kind of contrast. Luchana, what do you
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think?
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I think it was good. There's some stuff where I was kind of surprised that they mentioned.
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I've read a lot about what good strategies would be for both candidates and I think a
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lot of places mentioned that they should both stay away from more personal things. I thought
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it was kind of interesting that they mentioned that he was a felon or that he had been convicted
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for sexual assault. I know nothing much, just that I thought that was interesting.
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The amount of money they're spending on this is the biggest part of it. This is nearly
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half of their spending, or their full amount of spending for their whole year before this.
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So this ad is, they've spent a lot of money, a lot of time on this, and they think this
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is a thing that can capture voters and at least try to get some support rally for the
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Biden campaign where they desperately need it right now. So that's what I'm seeing.
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What's it going to change for some voters? What's it going to change for them? Because
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it doesn't ever already, this might sound so stupid, but don't people know this already?
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Everyone knows that he's got the 34 felonies. Everyone knows that he's been convicted for
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the assault. I don't know.
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What they're really trying to do is contrast. I mean, nobody knows everything they're going
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to put in an ad, along with the public that they're trying to reach, mainly swing voters.
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Swing voters are the most uninformed types of people news-wise. They probably do have
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a general sense that Trump's been convicted of something or whatever. That's not the biggest
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of their decision. They're looking more at, hey, who's going to help me with my taxes,
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with my... Because Trump's saying that he will now stop taxing tips, which is a great
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thing for Trump if you're looking for some publicity. And they're looking at who's going
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to help me more. They're not looking at... And they don't care necessarily as much as
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a far right or a far left or even a medium left or a medium right would care about stuff
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that is more concerning the character. And that's what they're trying to do here. They're
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trying to draw a contrast from character to character. And I think they've done a really
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good job. So any other comments? No?
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No. I agree. I was just curious about that.
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Now on to the second part of this episode where we are going to talk about the VP competition
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or lack of a competition, you could say, for Trump's VP spot. And then we will talk about
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the presidential debates that are going to happen in less than a week. And by the time
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you're hearing this, probably only a few days away. So first, we're going to start with
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those and Trump VP editions. We're going to start with governor... Well, actually, no.
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We'll start with naming the other two VPs and just give them a bit of background information
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for Trump and RFK. Lucia, do you want to talk?
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Yes, sure. So Joe Biden is going to have Kamala Harris running with him again. And Robert
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Kennedy Jr. is going to have Nicole Shanahan, a lawyer and entrepreneur, running with him.
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And Shanahan has tended to lean more liberal in the past, which could help him appeal to
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a wider variety. So that's just something interesting to think about. Back to Donald
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Trump.
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All right. So back to Trump. There's a lot. There is a definitely a lot. So we're going
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to talk about kind of three levels of people. First, we're going to talk about the people
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that have nearly 0% chance and are more future Republicans that could take up a spot. So
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we're going to start with somebody who's been in the news a lot lately for a book they wrote
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and a thing they perpetrated, Christy Lynn Gnome, or as a lot of people know her, Gnome.
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Her shot at VP is mostly dead. In a memoir she wrote that she killed her puppy. Trump
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has now been asking, coming to the meetings, his VP candidates just saying, don't shoot
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your puppy, which indicates all you really need to know regarding what Trump's priorities
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are. He wants something you can say on the news, especially controversy regarding shooting
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your dog. Yes?
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It's a pretty low bar, but don't shoot your dog.
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Yeah. So two other people we're going to have is Tom Cotton. He works in cable news. He's
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a senator. He went to Iraq. He has a degree from the Ivy League and he earned a law degree
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from Harvard. So obviously strong academically, his credentials look awfully good. His debate
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performances are, he hasn't actually been in really, he is on cable news, but yet he
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hasn't really been in a somewhat of a debate bait fashion yet. So there are a lot of questions
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surrounding that. Trump, his paramount concern is about debate performance and he believed
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he won 2016 based on his debate performance. So he really wants a person who can aggrandize
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his vice presidential debates. And then after Tom Cotton, you also have Ben Carson. He used
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to work as HUD, urban housing secretary, and he is a super long shot candidate. The chances
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of him are incredibly slim and it is just more of a person who Trump has talked to.
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And now we're going to talk about some people who could end up, but are not fully on Trump's
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top candidates list. And there are only two of them that I see here. First is Tim Scott.
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He is the only black man or woman in contention for the Trump VP. Trump, if you look at CNN
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polls, Trump had 7% in 2020 and now has 21%. So he's already been gaining on black voters
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a lot and Trump could only gain with Tim Scott. I think it would do well for, especially for
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the black vote. But Tim Scott was in the primaries and after three lackluster debate performances,
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he exited and very quickly endorsed Mr. Trump. So then after that you have Elise Stefanik.
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She's gained notoriety mostly for her very, very notable depositions and cross-examination
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of leaders in Ivy League schools, notably the president of Harvard, MIT and University
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of Pennsylvania. She was a once moderate Trump resident Republican and she has drifted right
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in more recent years. She is now considered one of Trump's most loyal defenders. She defends
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him so much on Capitol Hill and she even joined his defense in 2020 at his impeachment trial.
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So she's a steadfast defender and so many loyalty also matters a lot to Trump and he has that
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most certainly with Elise Stefanik. Yeah? Yeah, so she was the first member of Congress to
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endorse his candidacy and also, this is something that I've seen a little bit, it's kind of
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important for Trump. He's trying to diversify the kind of people he appeals to, which is
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why she, a young mother, could boost him with suburban women who he struggles with in the
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polls. Very much, I agree with that. I think Trump's been trying to put on, especially
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with Hunter Biden the other day, and I'm paraphrasing here, but he was essentially asked about the
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Hunter Biden case and his response was a very un-Trumpian response or something that you
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wouldn't assume of Trump usually. He said, it's a really hard thing for a father to go
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to so if that is one of the strategies, he takes more of a compassionate father approach,
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especially in the debates which we'll talk about later. It could be very good for his
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campaign but if he is starting to lose the debate, it will not happen. Trump will revert
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back to his more attacking ways back there. Yeah, yeah.
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They attempted to media train him and it's not, it's working because as Ryan just stated,
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he felt that it was very empathetic and charismatic of Trump to go out and say this. I'm going
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to call BS on that one. You could really just pull a, it's really hard for blah blah blah.
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It's media training and it's good that he's getting media training because as we've seen
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before he is a personality. Yeah. Yeah, especially with making statements about his opponent
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and if you go back and you listen to the 2020 debate, there's a lot of personal shots at
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current President Biden and his son. Yeah, I think this is definitely something
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that we're going to discuss more when we go into the debate portion but I do think it
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would be very interesting to discuss how Trump is going and Biden, how both presidential
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candidates are going to respond to the mics being shut off. Do we think they will scream
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over? Yes, yes we do. But yeah, so that's going to belong to the debate portion and
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media training is certainly a big part of politics. Nearly all politicians are media trained and
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Trump evidently, his campaign has got him quite a good one. I think that especially
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those kind of statements among in America that has a lot of people know somebody who
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is struggling with drugs. Among America that is like that, I think Trump, especially that
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media training you got right there would prove quite effective. So now we're going to talk
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about the three people that Trump is heavily considering for his job as, for their job
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as Vice President. We're going to start with an unlikelier of the three but yeah, yeah.
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Alright so that person is going to be Doug Burgum. He is a social conservative and mainly
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a fiscal hawk. People have asked him, he was not a Trumper just over a year ago in 2023
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and I quote regarding Mr. Trump, he said, you're judged by the company you keep, end
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quote. So his stance has come quite around after the Republican primaries. He endorsed
30:22
Trump and he is, has to be impressed with Trump with his, Trump was impressed by his
30:28
low energy demeanor and his just political know how. He also just to add is a billionaire.
30:35
So along with Nicole Shanahan, a wealthy, very wealthy person who inherited over half
30:40
of the Google fortune from Sergey Brin. He is also a billionaire and connected with too
30:45
many high ups at Microsoft. He founded his own tech company and he's been the governor
30:50
of North Dakota for nearly two terms at this point. So but the problem that Trump mainly
30:56
sees with him is he is a hardliner on abortion. His state did not enact one of a nice abortion
31:04
ban according to the liberals and he is most certainly going to lose Trump votes for that
31:10
as abortion tends to be a topic that liberals do quite well on. Luchano, you got any thoughts?
31:20
So that's really Doug Burgum in his self. Next up we have Marco Rubio. So at only 52
31:28
on the political spectrum at least he is younger. He has not been Trump's biggest fan and he
31:34
in fact he's been one of Trump's biggest enemies. If you look at even the Republican primaries
31:39
in 2016 they were insulting each other over their ear size and stuff like that. Marco
31:45
Rubio returning the attacks if not escalating them. So they were not friends but he's worked
31:51
closely after on foreign policy with Trump in the White House and he endorsed him. He
31:57
is though the reason Trump is so interested in him is he has gained more vote share in
32:07
Florida during his Senate race than Trump did. Florida is the place of which Trump would
32:11
love to gain some votes just for some buffer and around the United States he thinks Rubio
32:16
would do quite well. He's not cozy up to him as much as some of the VP candidates. He's
32:21
not showing up at his court case and stuff like that. It might not be a matter of association
32:26
but Trump has certainly questioned actually how much Rubio wants to be his VP according
32:31
to a lot of reporting. And next up a lot of people saying the most likely yes is JD Vance.
32:38
Oh sorry I had more on Marco Rubio. Okay just more on Marco Rubio for one moment. So he
32:47
is there's just a couple things that can benefit Trump by having him as his VP or could harm
32:52
Trump. So first of all he's Cuban which is kind of like a bonus for foreign policy and
32:57
then that also helps diversify his demographic with maybe more Hispanic Americans favoring
33:03
him and then there's also some issues. So there's the residency issue which says that
33:08
the president and the vice president can't live in the same state. And then so Trump
33:14
lives in Florida so does Marco Rubio and he would have to move and it would also give
33:19
Ron DeSantis who Trump has had some issues with in the past leverage because he would
33:23
be the one picking Rubio's replacement. So this is just my thoughts. And then Ryan take
33:28
it away with JD Vance. Perfect JD Vance. So he is the most likely of the three I would
33:35
say and a lot of media outlets have said to be the eventual nominee. He was a self identified
33:41
never Trump for a while and in his Senate run in 2022 he completely flipped the script
33:47
and refashioned himself with a crucial endorsement from president or former president Donald
33:53
Trump. He was educated at Yale a former venture capitalist and he wrote a bestselling book
33:59
called Hillbilly Elegy a memoir that followed his more blue collar upbringing you know in
34:05
the Midwest rust belt kind of area. He believed that he would be of future use to the Trump
34:10
administration in the Senate. He has publicly said that but he is not ruled out being a
34:15
vice president and he has cozied up to Trump a bit more than Rubio showing at a few of
34:20
his court appearances and appearances across the country. He has steadfastly defended Trump
34:27
in court. He has shown quite the aptitude to perpetrate some of the Trump propaganda
34:35
and the lies that Trump has said after his court appearances because of his gag order
34:42
and stuff like that. His Hillbilly Elegy book describes a working class and he claimed actually
34:50
during Trump's first campaign that Trump was taking advantage of these working class people
34:53
that he described in his book. Trump is obviously a populist so these people he doesn't necessarily
34:59
take advantage of but he gets votes from certainly a lot of these people as you know a populist
35:05
leader so you're going to see obviously a shift in that direction and he was partially
35:15
correct but Lujan you got any thoughts?
35:18
I do so I think that he definitely seems like the most likely candidate. I think that some
35:24
things that could benefit Trump is that he is really good on television which could help
35:29
a lot in the debating. He also has those really elite credentials that Trump loves and he's
35:33
a veteran. He served in Iraq, Iran, I don't know one of those two and so he's a veteran
35:41
which can definitely help Trump's support the veterans love America angle but then some
35:47
things that could be an issue is that he has criticized Trump in the past calling him America's
35:52
Hitler and cultural heroine and he's also one of Trump's biggest allies in the Senate
35:58
at the moment which is it's really helpful for Trump to have someone advocating for him
36:03
in the Senate and also this is less important but his seat would be filled by Governor Mike
36:09
DeWine. Governor DeWine has very strong opinions on abortion calling it murder even in the
36:15
cases of rape and incest which could be an issue for some of the swing voters because
36:19
they might not like the idea that they would end up with a very conservative pro-life person
36:25
in the Senate.
36:27
Yes definitely I mean once you're at a point where the swing voters are voting in the president's
36:31
election he would have already claimed and renounced his Senate seat so it's going to
36:37
be very interesting how those voters are modeled kind of from there and we have to move on
36:42
to debates so this is going to be fun. So we have a lot of stuff to talk about. So first
36:47
we're going to talk about the Biden campaign and kind of what's happening over at the Biden
36:51
HQ. So there is Ron Klain an American attorney he was a political consultant a lobbyist he's
36:57
very well known in Washington is going to be prepping Biden for the debates. He has
37:01
prepped a good amount of people he is quite the wizard when it comes to this stuff and
37:05
he has a very notable following especially obviously in Washington for this kind of stuff.
37:13
For Biden this is extremely high risk and lower reward. Biden cannot afford to make
37:17
any mistakes on the national stage no stutters none of that kind of stuff no freezing up
37:22
because if he does he'll be it'll be plastered all over Fox News and a lot of other news
37:27
he'll it's the next day no matter what their partisan affiliation would be. And he also
37:33
has Biden has his convention speech and he has two debates to get to Americans which
37:37
would be the exact same as President Donald Trump. Trump will has confirmed that he will
37:42
announce his person at his convention. Yeah. I was just going to say I think Biden's being
37:49
held to such a higher standard than anyone else. I think even if he makes if he stutters
37:55
like we do now that's going to be said like people are going to say oh that's because
38:00
he's old do you really want him being your president which I just think is interesting.
38:04
Yeah. Well Biden has a stutter he has that speech impediment and he's worked very hard
38:11
to erase that and it really only comes out when he is in high pressure flustered stressed
38:18
situations and I think former President Trump will attempt to bring out this type of flustered
38:26
and stutter. Most most certainly that will definitely happen. Trump's it's one of Trump's
38:32
main strategies is to get Biden at a place where he can't respond with co-co-co-co-coherent
38:38
prove my point coherent sentences. Yes. So it for the Trump campaign or yeah you want
38:43
to talk about Biden can be. Oh no I was just going to say this is more general feel free
38:47
to come back to it later if you want to but we can't I was just wondering how do you guys
38:51
think that the presidential candidates are going to react to the kind of restrictions
38:56
that they have on with the mic shutting off and the no audiences I think that could be
39:01
possible that some of them resort to maybe yelling over or still like personal insults
39:06
yes. I'm going to resort back to the 2020 presidential debates that we heard between
39:13
the two it was a lot of arguing it was a lot of back and forth not a lot was really touched
39:21
on in terms of their stances on issues the moderators even got involved in some of these
39:30
arguments and especially with Trump we heard a lot of back and forth insults not only on
39:39
Biden or the modern moderator but also on their families or the news network and especially
39:46
since they're going to be on CNN which is one of the fake news as as our former president
39:53
would call it. This is it's going to be interesting. I think the mic shutting off is it's good
40:02
for everyone at home and it's good for timing it's good for lots of things however I don't
40:10
think the candidates will be too fond of it specifically former president Trump and I
40:16
also sorry I don't mean to cut you off but I do want to say that I think that one thing
40:19
that might help Biden is no audience I think that's going to help him not get as flustered
40:25
I think because then like you know it's like public speaking versus making a YouTube video
40:31
you know I don't know if that makes sense for sure that's a really good comparison and
40:36
it's also very good because these are these rules were agreed to nearly a month and a
40:40
half ago at this point so the campaigns have a lot of time to prep with these kind of rules
40:45
Trump knows what his restrictions are now he might not follow him same applies to Biden
40:50
but they are certainly have prepped at least what they want to try to do with these rules
40:56
the Trump campaign has also pushed for standing debates this is something that was very important
41:07
to him and his advisors campaign managers I don't know oh that's interesting why do you
41:15
think is that because they want Mr. Biden who's a little older to look very weak Ryan why
41:23
do you think I have not been fully informed on why standing debates to be honest I think
41:29
standing obviously well talking during a debate is much more on the spot than sitting in sitting
41:35
you can get comfortable position you can be much more relaxed so I think I see it in most
41:39
much as that it must be a personal preference for the campaign especially for Trump so that's
41:45
where I see it but to move on for Trump's campaign so for the Trump this is much lower
41:51
risk there's much lower chance that something bad really happens because Trump can get away
41:55
with saying a lot of stuff a lot of people the standard for Trump is a lot different
42:02
than the standard for Biden among the public and among media outlets Trump is really has
42:07
he's been asking for more debates even and so just trying to get as many Biden gaffs
42:13
during these debates as possible just trying to get some material put on all these news
42:18
outlets and just plaster the public with so Trump has a possible VP announcement that
42:25
he passed up on so now he's the same amount of national speeches at Biden which is going
42:28
to be his convention in two debates those are going to be the two things that all Americans
42:33
see or most American see yeah oh sorry so basically we're gonna move on so the committee
42:40
for presidential debates basically everybody hates them they there's by bipartisan everybody
42:47
is fed up with them in Trump and Biden have finally split they are no longer going to
42:51
be managed by CPD or committee for presidential debates and the CPD was playing actually on
42:57
including RFK which we'll talk about in just a second in the debates which is why one of
43:01
the reasons reporting is indicated why they ditched CPD now CNN and ABC did put up the
43:09
requirements for RFK to get on the debate of which he confirmed today has not made he
43:16
needed to get 15% in four national high quality polls these for example would be stuff running
43:23
through Ipsos and running through Sienna College and running through Merket Law so stuff like
43:29
that on 538 right now he's pulling around 10% he has three national polls that are going
43:35
to be so his polls just aren't good enough he only reached it in three he needs four
43:40
plus he needs ballot access in enough states to win in the election so 270 assuming everything
43:46
that he's saying is correct he only has 189 he would need a lot more so he is not going
43:52
to be participating in these debates on 538 a national polling aggregator he's pulling
43:56
around 10% so that's kind of where he is right now yeah just to keep it very clear as a lot
44:02
of words have been said RFK is still in the running for president it is very unlikely
44:10
he will win or pull that many electoral votes however he cannot participate in the debate
44:21
he also is anyone who's voting for him is taking votes away from current president Biden
44:30
and this is very good for Trump and he is very happy about this and sorry Ryan but I
44:37
just want to say do you think that he seems like one of the strongest independent candidates
44:41
we've seen recently because he seems like the one that I've heard the most about I see
44:45
little groups of people saying RFK and definitely recently and a major contributor to this success
44:55
that he's seen is people are unsure about the other two major candidates people aren't
45:02
loving how Biden is handling the war wars going on between Israel and Palestine and
45:12
also with Ukraine and Russia people are not super happy with what's going on on Trump's
45:22
and with obviously his conviction but also his policies in general I've heard a lot of
45:31
backlash against this like plan he has called project 2025 which is going to restrict a
45:45
lot of rights for a lot of minorities and groups of people in the US sorry to chime
45:54
in on that so basically what I was just mentioning was a group called the double haters known
45:59
in politics they do not like either candidate and they are really going to them so a lot
46:03
of studies so regarding how big RFK is compared to other independent candidates he's bigger
46:11
now RFK independent candidates tend to be really big right now around this time of year
46:15
polling wise so we're going to watch as it gets closer to the election so I mean a comparable
46:23
person to his size would be like Ralph Nader in Ralph Nader single handedly won George
46:29
Bush that election Al Gore most likely would have won Florida with those 500 votes he needed
46:33
so on and so forth if Ralph Nader just hadn't participated so RFK can most certainly shift
46:38
in election just like L said additionally a lot of polls especially by Marquette Law
46:42
University have been conducted on where Biden's taking his vote from it's looking mostly like
46:49
it's equal but there is a slight slight very slight shift towards Biden so that it's very
46:55
interesting and I think both candidates feel a threat coming from him just with the family
47:00
name especially Democrats with his with a lot of Democratic patronage coming from that
47:06
family especially so we're going to move on to the rules of the presidential debate yes
47:11
Luchana.
47:12
I was just thinking we could start this off by doing a quick overview of the moderators
47:16
for this first debate everyone okay with that so the first one is Jake Tapper who is a moderator
47:21
for the CNN debate he is the CNN lead anchor for Washington DC events and he hosts the
47:26
State of the Union Sunday morning show the other CNN moderator is Dana Bash the chief
47:32
political correspondent for CNN she has moderated several political events debates including
47:38
2016 and 2020 primaries so that's just a little overview on that would one of you like to
47:46
so basically I'm just going to lay out the rules if that's okay with you guys right now
47:50
so then so then it was a 90 minute debate with two commercial breaks in between according
47:55
to network the campaign staff cannot interact with their candidate at any time even during
48:00
those breaks for ads both candidates have agreed to appear at a uniform podium and their
48:06
positions will be determined by a coin flip Biden has won the coin flip and will take
48:11
the right side Trump will get the last word in this debate so he will get the last response
48:16
to the moderators question which is usually going to be a finishing statement yeah why
48:22
this might sound so stupid but why does the side matter well in in the bay I think people
48:28
tend to like having a right side of the podium more I don't think actually influences the
48:34
debate that much but I think it's just just for fairness you did you're just gonna run
48:40
a coin flip just so that nobody can be like oh he put me on the right side and I'd really
48:44
didn't want the right side it's totally random it's fair both sides agree to it so I think
48:49
it's just like you know what let's do it eliminate one more aspect of argue between the sides
48:56
correct so microphones will be muted throughout the debate except for candidates who's turning
49:09
to speak however it is very very likely from a lot of stuff that I personally have heard
49:15
that there will be both people talking across at each other during the thing so the other
49:21
rules include the fact that they will not be allowed to have pre-written notes written
49:24
by and if their packs tried to give them something or if their campaign did they only be given
49:30
the pen pad of paper obviously and some water during the debate just the three necessities
49:35
that are at most debates so some aspects of this debate including the absence absence
49:40
of a studio audience will be a departure from previous debates but as in the past the the
49:47
moderators and I quote will use all tools at their disposal to enforce timing and ensure
49:52
a civilized discussion and quote according to CNN and the network so I think that that's
49:58
what they're really trying for is just a civil debate back to you know what would happen
50:01
with you know those kind of more civil debates debate debates have gotten more carnival
50:07
like over the past few years yeah.
50:10
Go on.
50:12
Third, another thing they're trying to eliminate is personal insult against each other with
50:20
the obvious meeting of microphones as well as moderators being to step in and take action
50:28
if needed the kind of mockery of the other candidate has really taken off in these past
50:40
couple election years as we obviously have seen from both sides that they are not afraid
50:49
to torment the other.
50:53
Thank you very much and just to the first debate just to remind everyone will be on
50:58
June 27th and then the other one by ABC will be on September 10th so the first clashes
51:02
in nearly three years you guys want to talk about what the campaigns kind of want to go
51:07
on here for sure so voters really want to hear former President Trump talk about his
51:15
views on inflation, immigration, his foreign policy specifically, what he will do to aid
51:24
Ukraine and his stance about the war going on in the Middle East and again people are
51:31
really wanting to see him stray away from personal insults and low blows at other opponents.
51:41
Yeah I think most certainly Trump's going to try at least with his PR team to maybe
51:46
try a new persona but if Trump's going to start to lose he's definitely going to stray
51:49
from that.
51:50
I think the Biden campaign what they're really concerned about less than the actual policy
51:54
that he will present up there is just being correct.
51:57
Make sure he doesn't make any gaffes, make sure his facts are correct, make sure what
52:00
he's saying is coherent and strong and also just as a little side note Trump has asked
52:07
for Biden to be tested for cocaine and other substances before the presidential debate
52:14
as you can hear a laugh out here because there was a conspiracy theory that Donald J. Trump
52:19
perpetrated that Joe Biden was on cocaine when he did his State of the Union back only
52:25
a few months ago so we would like to just you know put add that in most likely will
52:31
not happen but Trump really is hoping that Joe Biden can be tested for cocaine before
52:37
the first debate.
52:38
So any thoughts on that guys?
52:43
So just one question for you guys just to discuss.
52:47
So former President Donald Trump was recently found guilty on 34 counts of fraud after trial
52:53
about covering up a relationship with porn star Stormy Daniels.
52:57
His sentencing is set for July 11th which is just before the Republican National Convention
53:02
and just after the first debate do we think that he is going to talk about do you think
53:08
he's going to mention this?
53:09
Do you think this is going to come up at all?
53:11
Do we think that President Biden if he gets flustered by maybe some possible personal
53:16
attacks on him by former President Donald Trump do you think this is something Biden
53:21
could bring up?
53:23
It's definitely most certainly going to come up one way or another whether the moderator
53:26
brings it up whether Trump tries to bring it up himself or whether Biden brings it up.
53:30
I see moderators bringing it up mostly as the most likely option though both are very
53:35
possible yeah.
53:37
This is one of those topics where it can either be used as a weapon against Trump or it can
53:42
be used as leverage for him to kind of talk about how he believes the judicial system
53:50
is very unjust which don't get me wrong it is but in this case it's wishy-washy depending
53:58
on the side and what you personally believe but it can be used as a great leaping off
54:06
point for him and he can use it to relate to other not convicted felons because they
54:15
can't vote but other people who have gotten in trouble with the law in a lesser legal
54:21
well I guess also leaping off to that.
54:27
So obviously it is inevitable that it gets brought up at some point do you think it will
54:33
be former President Trump who brings it up and how will he do so?
54:38
Will he do so in a way that is to gain more voters or will he do it in a way to criticize
54:48
the people who worked on the case?
54:51
I most certainly it's both obviously the judge has extended the gag orders so it's putting
54:55
him in quite a unique place on which what he can talk about with his restrictions towards
55:01
the case but I think most certainly Trump will want just this as to include in his propaganda
55:08
wing just as Biden will use some other stuff and they both tend to seem to like this case
55:15
and they both tend to seem to benefit off it in very tangible ways differently obviously
55:20
but yeah so do we have anything else we want to talk about?
55:23
How will his sentencing affect the second debate?
55:29
Will it?
55:31
Is there a possibility that it will have to be moved to a different location rescheduled?
55:38
Do it via Zoom?
55:41
What do the possible outcomes?
55:46
Anything's possible at this point we don't know we're not inside Judge Mershawn's head
55:49
but like anything's possible.
55:51
I think people they will prioritize trying to get Trump to those debates over you know
55:57
some stuff that can obviously always be rescheduled whereas national televised debates are quite
56:03
the juggernaut to schedule so they have their own unique circumstances both candidates but
56:11
I see it as kind of like something that can be worked on and if need to will be but up
56:17
and to that point there's no worry at this point for that kind of thing.
56:22
Alright guys thank you for tuning in they got a little statement for you right now.
56:26
We really hope you enjoyed this podcast episode we had a lot of fun filming it please let
56:32
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56:36
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56:38
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56:46
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57:03
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